싀뎤붭뗈:짏쫐릫쮾닆컱삧뺳폫닆컱웆닺뗄뇈뷏럖컶짏쫐릫쮾닆컱삧뺳폫닆컱웆닺뗄뇈뷏럖컶3싀뎤붭ꆡ탬샶샲ꆡ훜ꆡ쇕(벪쇖듳톧짌톧풺ꆡ벪쇖듳톧쫽솿뺭볃퇐뺿훐탄ꆡ130012)ꆡꆡ쓚죝쳡튪:폫죎뫎웤쯻ퟩ횯튻퇹,웳튵튲폐튻룶짺쯀늡샏뗄맽돌,죧뫎뛔웕춨늡횢뫍룟캣늡횢폨틔쟸럖,닉좡늻춬뗄풤럀ꆢ헯뛏뫍훎쇆듫쪩,컞틉붫폐샻폚웳튵뗄붡뾵랢햹ꆣ놾컄죏캪,닆컱삧뺳뫍닆컱웆닺뿉틔ퟷ캪짏쫐릫쮾솽훖늻춬뗄닆컱ힴ뿶,펦닉좡늻춬뗄풤럀ꆢ헯뛏뫍훎쇆듫쪩ꆣ쿖폐컄쿗붫닆컱삧뺳폫닆컱웆닺늻볓쟸뇰,늻샻폚릫쮾닆컱ힴ뿶뗄헽좷에뇰뫍럖컶,뷸뛸펰쿬릫쮾닆컱헾닟뗄헽좷훆뚨ꆣ놾컄퓚훘탂뷧뚨닆컱삧뺳뫍닆컱웆닺뗄룅쓮벰웤닮틬뗄믹뒡짏,틔컒맺짏쫐릫쮾죽쓪뗄닆컱쫽뻝캪퇹놾,뛔릫쮾닆컱삧뺳뫍닆컱웆닺뷸탐쪵횤럖컶ꆣ퇐뺿뷡맻뇭쏷,컒맺짏쫐릫쮾좷듦퓚닆컱삧뺳뫍닆컱웆닺솽훖늻춬뗄닆컱ힴ뿶ꆣ펯샻쓜솦ꆢ닺뢺햮싊ꆢ릫쮾맦쒣춬쪱뛔쿝죫닆컱삧뺳뫍닆컱웆닺뗄릫쮾폐쿔훸펰쿬,쯼쏇쫇떼훂릫쮾쿝죫닆컱삧뺳뫍닆컱웆닺ힴ뿶뗄훘튪풭틲ꆣ폫맺췢샠쯆퇐뺿늻춬뗄쫇쿖뷰쇷솿탅쾢뛔폚컒맺짏쫐릫쮾뗄닆컱삧뺳뫍닆컱웆닺뷔쎻폐뷢쫍솦ꆣ맘볼듊:닆컱삧뺳ꆡ닆컱웆닺ꆡ닆컱ힴ뿶튻ꆢ틽퇔닆컱삧뺳뫍닆컱웆닺쫇솽룶늻춬뗄닆컱룅쓮ꆣ닆컱삧뺳쫇튻룶뚯첬뗄맽돌,튻냣살붲,듳뛠쫽릫쮾퓚웆닺횮잰뚼믡뺭샺닆컱삧뺳뗄뷗뛎,튲폐튻킩릫쮾캴뺭샺닆컱삧뺳횱뷓평폚틢췢풭틲웆닺ꆣ떫늢늻쫇쯹폐쿝죫삧뺳뗄릫쮾뚼믡ퟟ쿲웆닺,쿠랴,듳뛠쫽뗄삧뺳릫쮾늻믡ퟟ쿲웆닺,췹췹춨맽훘ퟩ뗈쫖뛎ퟟ돶웆닺ퟟ쿲솼탔랢햹뗄뗀슷ꆣ쓇쎴,퓚듓닆컱삧뺳ퟟ쿲닆컱웆닺뗄맽돌훐떽뗗쓄킩틲쯘퓚웰맘볼ퟷ폃?퓚웳튵쿝죫닆컱삧뺳뫍닆컱웆닺뫳펦룃듓쓄킩랽쏦닉좡믽벫폐킧뗄듫쪩듓뛸ퟟ돶삧뺳뫍웆닺?룷맺웆닺램뚼맦뚨쇋웆닺헻뛙훆뛈,쓇쎴퓚헢룶웆닺헻뛙웚볤쓚헢킩웳튵펦룃듓쓄킩랽쏦ퟅ쫖살룄뇤쯻쏇뗄뺳뿶,듓뛸뇜쏢웆닺쯹듸살뗄뻞듳헰뚯쓘?헢킩컊쳢뗄믘듰,뛔폚웳튵뗄쯹폐헟ꆢ햮좨죋ꆢ맜샭헟ꆢ헾뢮쿠맘늿쏅뗈룷샻틦쿠맘헟닉좡헽좷뗄뻶닟훁맘훘튪ꆣ떱좻,펰쿬웳튵쿝죫닆컱삧뺳뫍ퟟ쿲닆컱웆닺뗄틲쯘뫜뛠,폐웳튵ퟔ짭뗄틲쯘,튲폐췢늿뮷뺳틲쯘,뮹폐샺쪷틲쯘ꆢ탐튵틲쯘뗈뗈,폐탭뛠틲쯘퓚닆컱놨뇭짏컞램뇭쪾돶살,튲컞램솿뮯뷸탐럖컶ꆣ놾컄룹뻝짏쫐릫쮾쓪놨쯹쳡릩뗄믡볆탅쾢뇈뷏럖컶닆컱삧뺳뫍닆컱웆닺,헢붫믡뛔컒쏇퇐뺿웳튵닆컱삧뺳뫍닆컱웆닺맽돌뗄쳘헷쳡릩튻늿럖탅쾢에뛏(Jones1987;Gilbertetal.,1990;Flaggetal.,1991)ꆣ쪵볊짏,맺췢틑폐맘폚닆컱삧뺳뫍닆컱웆닺뗄뇈뷏퇐뺿ꆣGilbert뗈죋(1990)랢쿖,퓚솽ퟩ퇹놾,벴닆컱삧뺳폫닆컱웆닺ꆢ닆컱컈뚨폫닆컱웆닺훐뻹듦퓚늻춬뗄퓚춳볆짏폐틢틥뗄뷢쫍탔뇤솿ꆣHopwood뗈죋(1993)뾼달쇋솽룶퇹놾ퟩ,벴닆컱삧뺳퇹놾ퟩ뫍럇닆컱삧뺳퇹놾ퟩ,헢솽룶퇹놾ퟩ훐뻹냼삨탻룦웆닺뗄릫쮾ꆣ퇐뺿뷡맻뇭쏷,좷쪵듦퓚늻춬뗄춳볆짏폐틢틥뗄뇤솿펰쿬헢솽룶ퟩ뗄럖샠ꆣFlagg뗈죋(1991)춨맽뛔닆컱삧뺳릫쮾퇐뺿,랢쿖폐쯄룶닆컱뇈싊퓚쟸럖웆닺뫍럇웆닺릫쮾짏뫜폐틢틥ꆣNancy3ꆡ놾컄뗃떽맺볒ퟔ좻뿆톧믹뷰쿮쒿(70272005)ꆢ훐맺믡볆톧믡훘뗣쿮쒿(2003KJA011)뗄훺ꆣ놾컄ퟷ헟룐킻2003쓪훐맺훐쟠쓪닆컱돉놾퇐쳖믡짏훜쫘뮪뷌쫚ꆢ슽헽량뷌쫚ꆢ췵뮯돉뷌쫚ꆢ췵뇳뷌쫚뗄붨틩ꆣퟷ헟쳘뇰룐킻쓤쏻짳룥죋쳡돶뗄훐뿏탞룄붨틩ꆣ떱좻,ퟷ헟뛔놾컄뢺퓰ꆣ46
2004쓪뗚8웚뗈죋(1996)뛔닆컱삧뺳릫쮾뫍닆컱웆닺릫쮾럖뇰퓋폃훰늽믘맩랽램랢쿖,릫쮾뗄펯샻탔ꆢ닺뢺햮싊ꆢ맦쒣ꆢ짳볆틢볻ꆢ쪧튵싊뫍샻쾢싊퓚뷢쫍릫쮾웆닺맽돌탐캪훐뻟폐쿔훸뗄춳볆틢틥ꆣ평폚컒맺횤좯쫐뎡랢폽늻릻췪짆,웆닺ퟷ캪튻훖뷢뻶웳튵닆컱삧뺳컊쳢뗄쫖뛎,룼뛠뗘쫇쫜탐헾믺릹뗈럇쫐뎡탐캪뗄펰쿬ꆣ뛸쟒,짏쫐룱튻횱쫜떽횤볠믡뗄퇏룱뿘훆,뻞듳뗄탨쟳쪹뗃돆캪ꆰ뿇풴ꆱ뗄벨닮짏쫐릫쮾훋쫖뿉죈ꆣ쯹틔,벴뇣짏쫐릫쮾뒦폚웆닺뗄뇟풵,튲믡폐룷훖솦솿붫웤컼쫕ꆣ틲듋,쿠뛔폚컷랽랢듯쫐뎡뺭볃맺볒살쮵,컒맺횤좯쫐뎡짏뗄웆닺낸볾쪮럖폐쿞ꆣ평폚쓑틔믱뗃뿉릩닆컱삧뺳뫍닆컱웆닺퇐뺿쪹폃뗄듳솿뿉뾿뗄춳볆쫽뻝,웳튵닆컱삧뺳뫍닆컱웆닺뗄뇈뷏퇐뺿퓚컒맺벸뫵뒦폚뿕냗ꆣ좻뛸,쯦ퟅ컒맺쫐뎡뺭볃뗄늻뛏랢햹,웳튵돶쿖웆닺벰쿝죫닆컱삧뺳뗄쿖쿳붫풽살풽욵랱,룷샠쫐뎡닎폫헟뛔웳튵닆컱ힴ뿶벰웤뇤뮯튲쿔쪾돶풽살풽룟뗄맘힢ꆣ틲듋,뛔웆닺풤닢,믲헟쫇웳튵닆컱삧뺳풤닢뗄탨쟳튲뻍풽살풽룟,톧쫵뷧뾪쪼쪹폃춳볆랽램붨솢풤닢짏쫐릫쮾닆컱삧뺳뗄쒣탍ꆣ컢쫀얩ꆢ믆쫀훒(1986)뷏퓧뛔컒맺짏쫐릫쮾닆컱삧뺳뷸탐풤닢퇐뺿ꆣ헅쇡(2000)뾼달쇋웳튵쿝죫닆컱삧뺳뗄쪱볤탔뗄풤닢볬퇩,랢쿖쒣탍뻟폐뎬잰4쓪뗄풤닢뷡맻ꆣ돂쿾ꆢ돂훎뫨(2000)퓋폃뛠풪싟벭믘맩랽램쯹붨솢뗄ퟮ폅쒣탍쓜릻듓짏튻쓪ROE릫룦킡폚5%뗄짏쫐릫쮾훐뷏캪ힼ좷뗘풤닢돶쿂튻쓪믡뷸죫ST냥뿩뗄릫쮾,풤닢컳에싊듯떽3168%ꆣ컢쫀얩ꆢ슬쿍틥(2001)펦폃떥뇤솿에뚨ꆢ뛠풪쿟탔에뇰뫍뛠풪싟벭믘맩랽램,럖뇰붨솢ST릫쮾풤닢쒣탍,뷡맻횤쏷,헢킩쒣탍뻹믱뗃뷏룟뗄에뚨뺫뛈,퓚닆컱삧뺳랢짺잰4쓪뗄컳에싊퓚28%틔쓚ꆣ붪탣뮪ꆢ쯯(2001)퇐뺿쇋웳튵훎샭뗄죵뮯춬웳튵닆컱삧뺳횮볤뗄ퟷ폃맘쾵ꆣ떽쒿잰캪횹,맺쓚맘폚닆컱삧뺳뗄퇐뺿폐틔쿂쳘뗣:뗚튻,헢킩퇐뺿뛔폚닆컱삧뺳뫍닆컱웆닺뗄룅쓮늻볓쟸뇰,캧죆ퟅ뛔닆컱삧뺳(믲돆닆컱웆닺)뷸탐풤닢,늢룸돶쇋탭뛠풤닢쒣탍,폐떥웚풤닢쒣탍,튲폐뛠웚풤닢쒣탍,떫냑닆컱삧뺳뫍닆컱웆닺뷸탐뛔뇈퇐뺿좴쎻폐죋짦벰ꆣ뗚뛾,헢킩퇐뺿뻹틔컒맺짏쫐릫쮾훐놻ST뗄릫쮾횱뷓ퟷ캪퇐뺿뛔쿳ퟩ돉닆컱삧뺳퇹놾ퟩ,쎻폐짮죫럖컶릫쮾듓닆컱삧뺳퇝뮯떽닆컱웆닺뗄풭틲,틔벰웳튵냚췑닆컱삧뺳뫍닆컱웆닺ힴ뿶펦닉좡뗄듫쪩ꆣ놾컄퇐뺿뻟폐틔쿂쳘뗣:뗚튻,훘탂뚨틥쇋닆컱삧뺳뫍닆컱웆닺뗄룅쓮,늻쫇틔ST믲럇STퟷ캪뫢솿웳튵쫇럱쿝죫닆컱삧뺳뗄뇪ힼꆣ놾컄듓춳볆퇹놾뗄뷇뛈,붨솢쿠펦뗄닆컱횸뇪에뇰닆컱삧뺳뫍닆컱웆닺뗄닮틬ꆣ뗚뛾,퓚뛔닆컱삧뺳폫닆컱웆닺뷸탐뇈뷏뗄믹뒡짏,럖컶웳튵쿝죫닆컱삧뺳뫍닆컱웆닺뗄풭틲,풤쿈에뛏웳튵듓닆컱삧뺳ퟟ쿲닆컱웆닺뗄뿉쓜탔,룸돶쿝죫닆컱삧뺳뫍닆컱웆닺뗄웳튵냚췑삧뺳뗄듫쪩ꆣ뗚죽,놾컄쫇틔1998ꆪ2000쓪볤뗄닆컱삧뺳릫쮾뫍닆컱웆닺릫쮾캪퇐뺿뛔쿳,뿉틔뇜쏢떥웚닆컱쫽뻝뗄춳볆욫닮ꆣ놾컄뗚뛾늿럖붫뛔닆컱삧뺳뫍닆컱웆닺뷸탐샭싛럖컶;뗚죽늿럖,퇹놾짨볆뫍퇐뺿랽램;뗚쯄늿럖,쪵횤럖컶벰뷡맻;뗚컥늿럖캪뷡싛ꆣ뛾ꆢ샭싛럖컶(튻)닆컱삧뺳(FinancialDistress)룅쓮뗄뷧뚨맘폚닆컱삧뺳뗄뚨틥,맺쓚췢폐탭뛠늻춬뗄맛뗣ꆣ퓚Beaver(1966)뗄퇐뺿훐,79볒닆컱삧뺳릫쮾냼삨59볒웆닺릫쮾16볒췏잷폅쿈막막샻릫쮾뫍3볒췏잷햮컱뗄릫쮾ꆣ벴Beaver냑웆닺ꆢ췏잷폅쿈막막샻ꆢ췏잷햮컱뷧뚨캪닆컱삧뺳ꆣAltman(1968)뚨틥뗄닆컱삧뺳쫇ꆰ뷸죫램뚨웆닺뗄웳튵ꆱꆣDeakin(1972)죏캪닆컱삧뺳릫쮾ꆰ뷶냼삨틑뺭웆닺ꆢ컞솦뎥뮹햮컱믲캪햮좨죋샻틦뛸틑뺭뷸탐쟥쯣뗄릫쮾ꆱꆣCarmichael(1972)죏캪닆컱삧뺳쫇웳튵싄탐틥컱쪱쫜ퟨ,뻟쳥뇭쿖캪쇷뚯탔늻ퟣꆢ좨틦늻ퟣꆢ햮컱췏잷벰쇷뚯뷰늻ퟣ쯄훖탎쪽ꆣFoster(1986)붫닆컱삧뺳뚨틥캪ꆰ돽럇뛔뺭볃쪵쳥뗄뺭펪믲뷡릹쪵탐듳맦쒣훘ퟩ럱퓲뻍컞램뷢뻶뗄퇏훘뇤쿖컊쳢ꆱꆣRoss뗈죋(1999)퓲죏캪뿉틔듓쯄룶랽56
싀뎤붭뗈:짏쫐릫쮾닆컱삧뺳폫닆컱웆닺뗄뇈뷏럖컶쏦뚨틥웳튵뗄닆컱캣믺:뗚튻,웳튵쪧냜,벴웳튵쟥쯣뫳죔컞램횧뢶햮좨죋뗄햮컱;뗚뛾,램뚨웆닺,벴웳튵믲햮좨죋쿲램풺짪쟫웳튵웆닺;뗚죽,벼쫵웆닺,벴웳튵컞램내웚싄탐햮컱뫏풼뢶쾢뮹놾;뗚쯄,믡볆웆닺,벴웳튵뗄헋쏦뺻닺돶쿖뢺쫽,늻뗖햮ꆣ마뫍쇵쫧솫(1999)붫닆컱삧뺳뚨틥캪ꆰ웳튵컞솦횧뢶떽웚햮컱믲럑폃뗄튻훖뺭볃쿖쿳,냼삨듓뷰맜샭벼쫵탔쪧냜떽웆닺틔벰뒦폚솽헟횮볤뗄룷훖쟩뿶ꆣ평폚뷰맜샭벼쫵탔쪧냜뛸틽랢뗄횧뢶쓜솦늻ퟣ,춨뎣쫇퓝쪱뗄뫍뇈뷏듎튪뗄삧쓑,튻냣뿉틔닉좡튻뚨뗄듫쪩볓틔늹뻈,죧춨맽킭짌,쟳뗃햮좨죋죃늽,퇓뎤뎥햮웚쿞,믲춨맽닺뗖톺뗈뷨탂햮뮹뻉햮ꆱꆣ퓚짏쫶맘폚닆컱삧뺳뗄뚨틥훐,놾컄죏캪Ross뗈죋퓚1999쓪쳡돶뗄맛뗣뷏뻟닙ퟷ탔,벴듓럀랶닆컱삧뺳뗄뷇뛈뾴ꆰ,닆컱삧뺳쫇횸튻룶웳튵뒦폚뺭펪탔쿖뷰쇷솿늻ퟣ틔뗖뎥쿖폐떽웚햮컱ꆱ,벴벼쫵웆닺ꆣ떫헢룶룅쓮퓚컒맺쒿잰뗄짏쫐릫쮾훐컞램뫜뫃뗘뷢쫍ꆣ틲캪퓚컒맺,쿖폐떽웚햮컱횸뇪늻틗믱뗃,쯤좻닆컱맜샭뷌뿆쫩훐횸돶ꆰ:놾웚떽웚뗄햮컱횸놾웚떽웚뗄뎤웚햮컱뫍놾웚펦뢶욱뻝,헢솽훖햮컱늻쓜햹웚,뇘탫죧쫽맩뮹ꆣꆱ컒맺듳뛠쫽짏쫐릫쮾뗄쟩뿶쫇쇷뚯뢺햮뫜뛠,쇷뚯뢺햮뎤웚믽샛웰살뻍탎돉쇋뎤웚뢺햮,틲듋,쿖폐떽웚햮컱뫜짙,뿉쪵볊짏퓧뻍펦룃뎥뮹뗄쇷뚯뢺햮틲캪뎤웚늻뎥뮹틑뺭샛볆돉뎤웚뢺햮뛸퓚놨뇭짏컞램뇭쿖웤놾살뗄쳘헷,쯹틔헢룶횸뇪퓚컒맺웳튵폐뫜듳뗄뻖쿞탔ꆣ놾컄죏캪,닆컱삧뺳쫇튻룶뚯첬뗄돖탸뗄맽돌뫍ힴ첬,쯼늻쫇퓝쪱뗄ힴ뿶,뛸쫇뻟폐돖탸탔뫍뺭뎣탔뗄쳘뗣,볈늻쓜퓚튻쳬솽쳬쓚탎돉튲늻쓜퓚튻쳬솽쳬쓚쿻췋,탨튪춨맽붵뗍짺닺쓜솦폨틔뎥뮹,벴웳튵탨튪뇤쿖뎤웚닺ꆣ뷡뫏컒맺뗄쪵볊쟩뿶,놾컄쳡돶쇋튻룶맘폚닆컱삧뺳뗄탂뗄뚨틥,벴폃쇷뚯닺킡폚쇷뚯뢺햮,벴쇷뚯뇈싊킡폚1살뚨틥닆컱삧뺳,춬쪱튪쟳쇷뚯닺킡폚쇷뚯뢺햮펦룃쫇튻룶돖탸뗄ힴ첬,헢훖ힴ첬펦룃쫇퓚1ꆪ3쓪짵훁룼뎤쪱볤쓚늻쓜쓦ꆣ풭틲죧쿂:뗚튻,쇷뚯뇈싊쫇뫢솿웳튵뛌웚뎥햮쓜솦뗄횸뇪,튻냣펦듳폚뗈폚2,죧맻룃뇈싊킡폚1,쮵쏷웳튵뗄뛌웚뎥햮쓜솦벴쇷뚯탔틑뺭돶쿖쇋퇏훘뗄컊쳢;뗚뛾,쇷뚯뇈싊킡폚1,쮵쏷쇷뚯닺뇤쿖컞램뎥뮹쇷뚯뢺햮,튲뻍쫇탨튪뇤쿖뎤웚닺믲헟뷨탂햮뮹뻉햮;뗚죽,튪쟳닆컱삧뺳ힴ첬훁짙퓚1ꆪ3쓪쓚늻쓜쓦,쫇틲캪돵듎돶쿖쇷뚯뇈싊킡폚1쪱,웳튵뿉틔뚯폃ퟔ벺뗄탅폃살뷨탂햮뮹뻉햮,죧맻헢쫇튻룶퓝쪱뗄ힴ뿶쓇쎴뻍뿉틔뷨듋뛸뛉맽쓑맘,뿉죧맻쇷뚯뇈싊돖탸킡폚1,웳튵돖탸뚯폃ퟔ벺뗄탅폃돯뻍쫇튻볾뫜쓑뗄쫂쟩,헢퇹쯼뻍늻뗃늻뇤쿖뎤웚닺,틲듋,럻뫏닆컱삧뺳뗄쳘뗣ꆣ(뛾)닆컱웆닺(FinancialBankruptcy)룅쓮뗄뷧뚨컒맺뗄ꆶ웳튵웆닺램ꆷ(1986)뗚죽쳵맦뚨ꆰ:웳튵틲뺭펪맜샭늻짆퓬돉퇏훘뿷쯰,늻쓜쟥뎥떽웚햮컱뗄,틀헕놾램맦뚨탻룦웆닺ꆣꆱ2000쓪뗗,ퟮ룟죋쏱램풺뾪쪼ퟅ쫖웰닝맘폚짳샭웳튵웆닺낸볾뗄죴룉맦뚨ꆣ뺭맽돤럖뗷퇐ꆢ맣랺싛횤,퓚헷쟳솢램믺맘뫍쿠맘맺볒믺맘틢볻뗄믹뒡짏ꆶ,맘폚짳샭웳튵웆닺낸볾죴룉컊쳢뗄맦뚨ꆷ평ퟮ룟죋쏱램풺짳에캯풱믡뗚1232듎믡틩춨맽,폚2002쓪9퓂1죕웰헽쪽쪩탐ꆣ룹뻝ퟮ탂튻룥웆닺램닝낸뗄맦뚨ꆰ,늻쓜쟥뎥떽웚햮컱ꆱ쫇횸:(1)햮컱뗄싄탐웚쿞틑뷬싺;(2)햮컱죋쏷쿔좱랦쟥뎥햮컱뗄쓜솦ꆣ햮컱죋춣횹쟥뎥떽웚햮컱늢돊솬탸ힴ첬,죧컞쿠랴횤뻝,뿉췆뚨캪ꆰ늻쓜쟥뎥떽웚햮컱ꆱꆣ웳튵램죋죧늻쓜쟥뎥떽웚햮컱떫죔폐췬뻈쾣췻뗄,뿉틔쫊폃훘헻돌탲ꆣ짏쫶폐맘맦뚨훷튪듓웳튵램싉뷇뛈뷧뚨웳튵웆닺ꆣ놾컄듓닆컱뗄뷇뛈뚨틥닆컱웆닺,벴붫웳튵늻뗖햮뗄ힴ뿶뚨틥캪닆컱웆닺ꆣ본폚쒿잰폐맘닆컱삧뺳뗄퇐뺿뚼냑ST릫쮾ퟷ캪삧뺳퇹놾ꋙ,놾컄튲뾼달쇋ST릫쮾폫늻뗖햮횮볤뗄맘쾵ꆣ1998쓪훁2000쓪컒맺쯹폐뗄짏쫐릫쮾훐,늻뗖햮뗄릫쮾릲폐31볒,뛸헢31볒릫쮾훐폐80%ꆪ90%퓚헢죽쓪훐놻ST맽,헢튲쮵쏷컒맺듳늿럖STꋙ쪵볊짏,맜샭늿쏅뷧뚨ST훷튪믹폚샻죳횸뇪뛸럇닆컱ힴ뿶횸뇪ꆣ66
2004쓪뗚8웚릫쮾늻뗖햮뻍펦룃내헕웆닺뗄맦뚨뷸죫웆닺돌탲,떫평폚짏쫐릫쮾뗄ꆰ뿇ꆱ풴벰쿠맘헾닟탔컊쳢,떼훂컒맺폐튻룶ퟔ벺쳘즫뗄ST냥뿩ꆣ(죽)닆컱삧뺳폫닆컱웆닺뗄뇈뷏닆컱삧뺳뫍닆컱웆닺ퟷ캪릫쮾닆컱ힴ뿶뗄솽훖늻춬ힴ첬,볈폐솪쾵튲폐쟸뇰ꆣ릫쮾뗄닆컱ힴ뿶쫇뚯첬뗄ꆢ뇤뮯뗄,닆컱삧뺳뫍닆컱웆닺쫇헢훖뚯첬뇤뮯뗄맽돌훐뗄솽룶쪱뗣ꆣ듳뛠쫽릫쮾퓚쿝죫닆컱웆닺횮잰뚼믡뺭샺닆컱삧뺳뗄뷗뛎ꆣ웳튵쿝죫닆컱삧뺳쫇튻룶훰늽뗄맽돌,춨뎣듓닆컱컈뚨훰붥랢햹떽닆컱삧뺳ꆢ닆컱웆닺ꆣ닆컱삧뺳쫇튻룶돖탸ꆢ뚯첬뗄맽돌,쿝죫닆컱삧뺳뗄릫쮾튪쎴ퟟ쿲닆컱웆닺,튪쎴ퟟ돶닆컱삧뺳ꆣ뛸닆컱웆닺쫇릫쮾닆컱ힴ뿶뗄튻훖룄뇤,쿝죫닆컱웆닺뗄릫쮾웤닆컱ힴ뿶붫뷸튻늽퇏훘뛱뮯,틔훁폚릫쮾컞램뷸탐헽뎣뗄짺닺뺭펪,룼컞램뎥뮹떽웚햮컱ꆣꆰ쏀맺웳튵뷧ꆢ뷰죚뷧뫍램싉뷧랢쿖웳튵웆닺쪵볊짏뿉럖캪솽훖쟩뿶,튻훖쫇듦솿웆닺,튻훖쫇쇷솿웆닺ꆣ잰헟횸웳튵쿖폐닺볛횵늻ퟣ틔뎥뮹뢺햮볛횵,벴닆컱웆닺;뫳헟횸웳튵뺭펪탔쿖뷰쇷솿늻ퟣ틔늹뎥떽웚햮컱,벴닆컱삧뺳ꆱ(짲틕럥,1999,뗚84튳)ꆣꆰ맘폚닆컱삧뺳뗄퇐뺿쒿잰톧쫵뷧틑췑샫쇋붫웆닺뫍럇웆닺ퟷ캪퇐뺿닆컱삧뺳뗄랶쪽,틲캪웆닺쿠뛔폚삧뺳뛸퇔,룼쫇튻룶램싉쫂볾뛸럇뺭볃쫂볾ꆱ(Terryetal.,2001)ꆣ닆컱삧뺳뫍닆컱웆닺쯤좻쫇릫쮾닆컱ힴ뿶뇤뮯맽돌훐뗄솽룶늻춬뗄ힴ첬,떫쫇뛾헟닆컱ힴ뿶뗄뛱뮯돌뛈늻춬ꆣ잰쏦쳡떽,듳뛠쫽릫쮾퓚웆닺횮잰뚼믡뺭샺닆컱삧뺳뗄뷗뛎,떫폖늻쫇쯹폐쿝죫삧뺳뗄릫쮾뚼믡ퟟ쿲웆닺,쿠랴,듳뛠쫽쿝죫닆컱삧뺳뗄릫쮾췹췹믡춨맽훘ퟩ뗈쫖뛎ퟟ쿲솼탔랢햹뗄뗀슷ꆣ뛸쿝죫닆컱웆닺뗄릫쮾튲늻튻뚨뻍ퟟ쿲훕뷡,뿉틔샻폃웆닺뿭쿞웚닉좡뇘튪듫쪩ퟟ돶웆닺ꆣ틲듋,뛔뛾헟닮틬뗄럖컶믡폐훺폚샭뷢닆컱삧뺳뫍닆컱웆닺뗄쳘헷,폐훺폚듓닆컱헾닟뗄뷇뛈냚췑닆컱삧뺳뫍닆컱웆닺ꆣ죽ꆢ퇹놾짨볆뫍퇐뺿뇤솿(튻)퇹놾짨볆룹뻝짏쫶닆컱삧뺳뫍닆컱웆닺뗄뚨틥,놾컄뛔1998ꆪ2000쓪컒맺쯹폐뗄짏쫐릫쮾틀뻝틔쿂맦퓲톡퓱퇹놾:11놾컄훷튪퇐뺿닆컱삧뺳뫍닆컱웆닺뗄쟸뇰,틲듋,쯹톡훐뗄웆닺릫쮾퓚웆닺횮잰탫뺭맽닆컱삧뺳뷗뛎,튲뻍쫇퓚웆닺횮잰훁짙폐튻쓪돶쿖쇷뚯닺킡폚쇷뚯뢺햮뗄쟩뿶ꆣ헢퇹뻍업돽쇋쎻폐뺭샺닆컱삧뺳뻍웆닺뗄릫쮾,틲캪,춻좻뗄웆닺뿉쓜늻쫇닆컱삧뺳뗄뷡맻ꆣHopwood뗈죋(1993)횸돶,쎻폐뺭샺닆컱삧뺳뗄웆닺룼뿉쓜쫇평폚짌튵웛햩퓬돉뗄ꆣJones(1987)횸돶,헢훖쟩뿶뿉쓜쫇튻훖햽싔짏뗄뻶뚨,틲캪헢퇹뿉틔뇜쏢싄탐뫏춬뫍햮컱ꆣ놾컄죏캪,듳뛠쫽벴붫웆닺뗄릫쮾뚼믡퓚웆닺잰뗄쒳뛎쪱볤쓚뺭샺닆컱삧뺳,뛸닆컱컈뚨릫쮾랢짺웆닺뿉쓜폐릫쮾ퟔ벺뗄풭틲ꆣ틲듋,놾컄퓚톡퓱닆컱웆닺퇹놾쪱폐헢퇹튻룶쿞훆,벴릫쮾퓚웆닺잰뇘탫훁짙뺭샺튻쓪뗄닆컱삧뺳ꆣ21놾컄냑쇷뚯닺킡폚쇷뚯뢺햮뚨틥캪닆컱삧뺳,뻟쳥퓚톡퓱닆컱삧뺳퇹놾쪱,튪쟳018<쇷뚯뇈싊<1,쟒퓚1998ꆪ2000쓪훁짙솬탸솽쓪돶쿖맽018<쇷뚯뇈싊<1뗄쟩뿶,틲듋,늢늻쫇쯹폐쇷뚯닺킡폚쇷뚯뢺햮뗄릫쮾뚼놻톡훐ꆣ헢퇹ퟶ훷튪쫇틲캪쇷뚯닺훐폐튻킩쿮쒿늻쓜폃살뎥뮹햮컱,늻쓜뇤쿖,뇈죧듽첯럑폃,죧맻쇷뚯닺퇏훘킡폚쇷뚯뢺햮,쇷뚯닺훐퓙복좥튻킩늻쓜폃살쟥뎥뗄쿮쒿,쓇쎴쇷뚯닺뻍쯹쪣컞벸,헢훖ힴ뿶뻍뫜뷓뷼폚웆닺짵훁틑뺭뒦폚웆닺ힴ뿶ꆣ뛸튪쟳훁짙솬탸솽쓪돶쿖맽018<쇷뚯뇈싊<1뗄쟩뿶,쫇캪쇋쪹닆컱삧뺳쳘헷룼쏷쿔,틲캪놾컄퓚잰쏦틑뺭횸돶,닆컱삧뺳쫇튻룶뚯첬뗄돖탸뗄맽돌뫍ힴ첬,쯼늻쫇퓝쪱뗄ힴ뿶,뛸뻟폐돖탸탔뫍뺭뎣탔뗄쳘뗣ꆣ춨맽뛔놾컄톡돶뗄웆닺퇹놾뷸탐뾼달,컒쏇랢쿖,헢킩웆닺퇹놾퓚웆닺잰듳뛠쫽뚼뺭샺맽닆컱삧뺳뷗뛎,튲뻍쫇쇷뚯닺킡폚쇷뚯뢺햮,헢쮵쏷릫쮾퓚웆닺횮잰튻냣뚼튪뺭샺튻룶웕뇩뗄닆76
싀뎤붭뗈:짏쫐릫쮾닆컱삧뺳폫닆컱웆닺뗄뇈뷏럖컶컱삧뺳뷗뛎ꆣ헢튲쫇닆컱삧뺳퇹놾톡퓱쪱캪쪲쎴튪쟳018<쇷뚯뇈싊<1뗄쇭튻풭틲,죧맻횻튪쇷뚯닺킡폚쇷뚯뢺햮뗄릫쮾뻍뷸죫퇹놾ퟩ,쓇쎴닆컱삧뺳퇹놾ퟩ뻍믡냼삨듳뛠쫽뗄웆닺퇹놾ꆣ톡퓱018ퟷ캪쇙뷧뗣뗄풭틲쫇,룹뻝컒맺짏쫐릫쮾쇷뚯뇈싊퇹놾뗄럖늼쳘헷,떱쇷뚯뇈싊돖탸솽쓪킡폚1쪱,릫쮾랢짺닆컱삧뺳,떱쇷뚯뇈싊킡폚018쪱,릫쮾닆컱ힴ뿶뻧쇒뇤뮯,늻뗖햮,랢짺닆컱웆닺(볻춼1)ꆣ춼1ꆡ릫쮾듓닆컱삧뺳퇝뮯캪닆컱웆닺뗄쟩뿶평폚닆컱ힴ뿶쫇튻룶뚯첬뗄맽돌,닆컱웆닺뗄릫쮾춨뎣뺭샺닆컱삧뺳뷗뛎,닆컱웆닺쫇닆컱삧뺳뗄뷸튻늽볓뻧,틲듋,닆컱삧뺳퇹놾늻냼삨쇷뚯뇈싊킡폚018뗄릫쮾ꆣ쪵볊짏,쇷뚯뇈싊킡폚018,릫쮾뻍틑뷸죫닆컱웆닺뷗뛎ꆣ3.쳞돽닆컱삧뺳퇹놾훐럻뫏웆닺맦뚨뗄퇹놾,튲뻍쫇쳘뚨쓪럝뗄쳘뚨릫쮾뗄쫽뻝늻쓜춬쪱돶쿖퓚솽룶퇹놾ퟩ훐ꆣ내헕틔짏뇪ힼ,퇹놾톡퓱뷡맻죧쿂:1998ꆪ2000쓪릲폐31볒웆닺릫쮾,폐6볒퇹놾늻럻뫏맦뚨(퓚웆닺잰쎻폐뺭샺닆컱삧뺳뗄뷗뛎믲쫽뻝늻좫)뛸놻쳞돽,헢퇹릲폐25룶럻뫏쳵볾뗄퇹놾ퟩ돉닆컱웆닺퇹놾ퟩꆣ내헕닆컱삧뺳퇹놾뗄톡퓱뇪ힼ,릲톡돶83룶퇹놾ퟩ돉닆컱삧뺳퇹놾ퟩꆣ(뛾)퇐뺿뇤솿놾컄좫쏦뾼달쇋틔췹맺쓚췢쿠맘퇐뺿훐퇐뺿뇤솿톡퓱뗄쟩뿶,쯤좻퓚샭싛짏쎻폐튻쳗ꆰ뫏쫊뗄ꆱ뇈싊,떫틔췹뗄퇐뺿랢쿖,쇷뚯탔ꆢ펯샻탔뫍닺뢺햮싊퓚뷢쫍웆닺쪱폐틢틥,훮죧맦쒣ꆢ퓋펪뇈싊ꆢ짳볆틢볻ꆢ쪧튵싊ꆢ샻쾢싊뗈뫪맛뺭볃횸뇪튲냼삨퓚웆닺쒣탍훐(Gilbertetal.,1990;Flaggetal.,1991;Nancyetal.,1996),틑뺭횤쪵폫웆닺쿠맘ꆣ놾컄뗄퇐뺿쫇퓚닆컱뇈싊뗄뿲볜쓚뷸탐뗄,틲듋,캴뾼싇췢늿뺭볃뮷뺳뛔웳튵뗄펰쿬ꆣ놾컄볆쯣뫍볬닢쇋뿉틔뷢쫍릫쮾닆컱ힴ첬뗄11룶뇈싊ꆣ헢킩뇈싊ퟛ뫏랴펳쇋웳튵뗄뛌웚뢶쿖쓜솦ꆢ뷰퓋펪쓜솦ꆢ닺뢺햮싊ꆢ믱샻쓜솦ꆢ웳튵맦쒣벰췢늿짳볆틢볻ꆣ컒쏇닉폃쇷뚯닺폫쇷뚯뢺햮닮횵뗄뻸뛔횵뗄ퟔ좻뛔쫽Y,랴펳릫쮾닆컱삧뺳뫍닆컱웆닺,룹뻝잰쏦뗄뚨틥,떱018<쇷뚯뇈싊<1쪱,Y뛈솿뗄쫇ꆰ닆컱삧뺳ꆱ;떱쇷뚯뇈싊<018쪱,Y뛈솿뗄쫇ꆰ닆컱웆닺ꆱꆣ놾컄쫽뻝살풴폚쿣룛샭릤듳톧훐맺믡볆폫뷰죚퇐뺿훐탄뫍짮�맺첩낲탅쾢벼쫵폐쿞릫쮾솪뫏뾪랢뗄ꆶ짏쫐릫쮾닆컱쫽뻝뿢ꆷ,쪹폃뗄춳볆죭볾캪SPSS1110forWindowsꆣ캪쇋쪹퇹놾뿕볤듯떽튻룶뇈뷏뫃뗄ힴ첬,놾컄붫1998쓪훁2000쓪짏쫐릫쮾뗄뷘쏦쫽뻝,ퟶ돉쇋튻룶믬뫏퇹놾ꆣ쪹폃뗄닆컱횸뇪벰웤쏨쫶탔춳볆죧뢽뇭1뫍뇭2쯹쪾ꆣ뇭1뇤솿뗄쏨쫶탔춳볆뇤솿몬틥뇤솿몬틥T01뎬쯙뚯뇈싊T07쎿막쫕틦T02쯙뚯뇈싊T08샻쾢놣헏놶쫽aT03쎿막뺭펪믮뚯닺짺뗄뺻쿖뷰쇷솿T09ퟜ닺맦쒣뗄ퟔ좻뛔쫽T04펦쫕헋뿮훜싊T10뎤웚뺭펪탔닺Πퟜ닺b볆틢볻(짳볆쪦돶뻟뇪ힼ컞놣쇴짳볆틢볻쪱캪1,웤T05듦믵훜싊짳T11쯻쟩뿶캪0)T06닺뢺햮싊Y쇷뚯닺폫쇷뚯뢺햮횮닮뻸뛔횵뗄ퟔ좻뛔쫽ꆡꆡ힢:a1평폚짏쫐릫쮾쫽뻝엻슶늻돤럖,놾컄쪹폃닆컱럑폃쳦듺샻쾢럑폃;b1헢샯뎤웚뺭펪탔닺쫇횸만뚨닺뫍컞탎닺횮뫍ꆣ86
2004쓪뗚8웚뇭221닆컱삧뺳ퟩ퇹놾뗄쏨쫶탔춳볆뇤솿퇹놾룶쫽ퟮ킡횵ퟮ듳횵뻹횵뇪ힼ닮Y83131519320105371717150112480T0183010060015517011617011204T0283011027019583015297011995T0383-018580117300011572013508T04830138271961631613197962912304T05830100003618808512973617402T0683012297110416015814011686T0783-211800015800010894013447T0883-1511182411156069174024517970T0983191026322181792019269018716T1083010935017599014555011770T1183010000110000017229014503뇭222닆컱웆닺ퟩ퇹놾뗄쏨쫶탔춳볆뇤솿퇹놾룶쫽ퟮ킡횵ퟮ듳횵뻹횵뇪ힼ닮Y25171501621125391918986011827T0125010000011502010256010311T0225010277014814012315011335T0325-012700017500010525011981T0425-0120171014082210577219864T0525010000714829218573215066T0625018912216231116001014665T0725-611700-011600-115786114552T0825-2210703-012622-418151517621T0925191149720196832011687014577T1025010315018829013454012195T1125010000010000010000010000쯄ꆢ쪵횤럖컶(튻)닆컱삧뺳뫍닆컱웆닺뗄닮틬럖컶듓뇭2-1뫍뇭2-2뿉틔뾴돶,닆컱삧뺳뫍닆컱웆닺솽ퟩ퇹놾듦퓚쿔훸뗄춳볆닮틬,닆컱삧뺳퇹놾ퟩ뗄뛌웚뢶쿖쓜솦ꆢ뷰퓋펪쓜솦ꆢ닺뢺햮싊ꆢ믱샻쓜솦ꆢ웳튵맦쒣뗈횸뇪쏷쿔룟폚닆컱웆닺ퟩ뗄뛔펦횸뇪ꆣ캪듓춳볆짏볬퇩톡좡뗄뇤솿퓚닆컱삧뺳퇹놾ퟩ뫍닆컱웆닺퇹놾ퟩ횮볤쫇럱듦퓚쿔훸뗄닮틬,컒쏇펦폃럇닎쫽WilcoxonMann2Whitney볬퇩램뛔솽ퟩ퇹놾11룶뇤솿뷸탐춳볆볬퇩,뷡맻죧뇭3쯹쪾ꆣ96
싀뎤붭뗈:짏쫐릫쮾닆컱삧뺳폫닆컱웆닺뗄뇈뷏럖컶뇭3럇닎쫽WilcoxonMann2Whitney볬퇩Mann2WhitneyU횵Wilcoxon횵Z횵뇪ힼ닮T011831000050810000-612242010000T022251000055010000-519182010000T0371615000104115000-21338010190T044871000081210000-410098010001T0581210000113710000-116426011005T06410000349010000-715280010000T07441500036915000-712331010000T081321000045710000-615956010000T094881000081310000-410025010001T106521000097710000-218080010050T112871500061215000-613471010000ꆡꆡ듓뇭3뿉틔뾴돶,닆컱삧뺳퇹놾ퟩ뫍닆컱웆닺퇹놾ퟩ돽뇤솿T05(듦믵훜싊)췢,웤쯻뇤솿뻹듦퓚쿔훸탔닮틬,닆컱삧뺳퇹놾ퟩ뫍닆컱웆닺퇹놾ퟩ뗄닆컱뇈싊닮틬쿔훸,헢킩뇤솿쓜릻에뇰닆컱삧뺳폫닆컱웆닺뗄닮틬ꆣ뛸쟒,닆컱웆닺ퟩ뗄쯹폐짳볆틢볻뻹캪뻜뻸믲컞램뇭쪾틢볻,닆컱삧뺳퇹놾ퟩ컞놣쇴틢볻뗄퇹놾캪23룶,뷶햼퇹놾ퟜ솿뗄27171%ꆣ헢쮵쏷닆컱웆닺ퟩ뗄릫쮾쪵볊짏틑뺭뷸죫웆닺ힴ첬,횻쫇평폚컒맺쒿잰횤좯쫐뎡뗄늻췪짆,쪹뗃헢킩놾펦웆닺뗄릫쮾늻쓜웆닺ꆣ놾컄뮹뛔25룶웆닺퇹놾퓚랢짺웆닺잰뗄쟩뿶뷸탐쇋럖컶,톡좡쇋헢25룶웆닺퇹놾듓1997쓪떽랢짺웆닺떱쓪뗄쫽뻝,릲15볒릫쮾59룶퇹놾,ퟩ돉닆컱웆닺릫쮾뛔뇈퇹놾ퟩꆣ뛔헢59룶퇹놾뗄쇷뚯뇈싊뷸탐럖컶,볬퇩헢25룶웆닺퇹놾쫇럱퓚랢짺웆닺횮잰뻹뺭샺맽닆컱삧뺳뷗뛎ꆣ춨맽붨솢뫡훡뇭쪾쪱볤,ퟝ훡뇭쪾쇷뚯뇈싊뇤솿뗄춼(춼싔),컒쏇랢쿖,쯹폐뗄웆닺릫쮾퓚웆닺잰뗄2훁4쓪쪱볤쓚뻹뺭샺쇋닆컱삧뺳뷗뛎,뛸쟒쇷뚯뇈싊돊웕뇩쿂붵쟷쫆,헢폫잰쏦뗄샭싛럖컶쿠튻훂ꆣ(뛾)닆컱삧뺳뫍닆컱웆닺뗄펰쿬틲쯘럖컶캪럖컶닆컱삧뺳퇹놾ퟩ뫍닆컱웆닺퇹놾ퟩ뛔펦뷢쫍뇤솿폫놻뷢쫍뇤솿횮볤뗄쿠맘탔,틔벰룷뷢쫍뇤솿횮볤뗄쿠맘돌뛈,컒쏇럖뇰뛔솽ퟩ퇹놾뷸탐럇닎쫽쿠맘럖컶(쿠맘쾵쫽뇭싔),컒쏇랢쿖ꋙ:T01ꆢT02ꆢT05ꆢT07ꆢT08ꆢT10릲6룶뇤솿폫Y쿔훸뢺쿠맘,뇤솿T06ꆢT09폫Y쿔훸헽쿠맘ꆣ쮵쏷릫쮾뗄뛌웚뢶쿖쓜솦ꆢ듦믵훜쯙뛈ꆢ펯샻쓜솦ꆢ뎥햮놣헏벰뎤웚뺭펪탔닺뇈샽뗄퓶잿,뛔폚뮺뷢릫쮾뗄닆컱삧뺳폐믽벫뗄ퟷ폃,뛸릫쮾닺뢺햮싊뫍맦쒣뗄삩듳,붫볓뻧릫쮾뗄닆컱삧뺳ꆣ뇤솿T07폫Y2쿔훸뢺쿠맘,뇤솿T06ꆢT09폫Y2쿔훸헽쿠맘ꆣ쮵쏷릫쮾펯샻쓜솦뗄쳡룟,폐훺폚뮺뷢릫쮾뗄닆컱웆닺뻖쏦,릫쮾닺뢺햮싊뫍맦쒣뗄삩듳,뷸튻늽붫웳튵췆쿲웆닺ꆣ뇤솿T07(펯샻쓜솦)ꆢT06(닺뢺햮싊)ꆢT09(릫쮾맦쒣)춬쪱뛔릫쮾뗄닆컱삧뺳뫍닆컱웆닺폐쿠춬랽쿲뗄펰쿬,룹뻝잰쏦럇닎쫽닮틬럖컶,닆컱삧뺳ퟩ뫍닆컱웆닺ퟩ뗄헢3룶뇤솿듦퓚쿔훸닮틬ꆣ헢쮵쏷뺡맜헢3룶뇤솿뷔뛔닆컱삧뺳뫍닆컱웆닺폐펰쿬,떫쫇펰쿬돌뛈쿔훸늻춬ꆣ쇭췢,튲듦ꋙ평폚펰쿬릫쮾닆컱삧뺳뫍닆컱웆닺뗄룷룶뇤솿횮볤듦퓚ퟅ쿠맘맘쾵,틲듋,늻쓜횱뷓쪹폃헢킩뇤솿뷸탐믘맩럖컶ꆣ캪컈붡탔웰볻,놾컄럖뇰뛔닆컱삧뺳퇹놾ퟩ뫍닆컱웆닺퇹놾ퟩ뛔펦뷢쫍뇤솿뷸탐훷돉럖럖컶,좻뫳,샻폃훷돉럖럖뇰뛔놻뷢쫍뇤솿뷸탐믘맩럖컶,믘맩랽돌F횵럖뇰캪241713뫍111382,뗷헻뫳R2럖뇰캪01536뫍01634,벴믘맩랽돌쿔훸ꆣ07
2004쓪뗚8웚퓚웤쯻튻킩뷶뛔닆컱삧뺳닺짺펰쿬뛸뛔닆컱웆닺컞펰쿬뗄뇤솿죧T01(뎬쯙뚯뇈싊)ꆢT02(쯙뚯뇈싊)ꆢT05(듦믵훜싊)ꆢT08(샻쾢놣헏놶쫽)벰T10(뎤웚뺭펪탔닺Πퟜ닺)ꆣ(죽)릫쮾듓닆컱삧뺳떽닆컱웆닺뗄에뇰럖컶캪퇐뺿릫쮾듓닆컱삧뺳퇝뇤떽닆컱웆닺뗄믺훆,컒쏇붫닆컱삧뺳뫍닆컱웆닺솽룶퇹놾뫏늢돉튻룶탂뗄믬뫏퇹놾,늢퓶볓럖ퟩ뇤솿(Group)ퟷ캪닆컱삧뺳뫍닆컱웆닺뗄럖샠뇤솿,뛔퇹놾뷸탐WilksLambda훰늽에뇰럖컶,뗃떽죧쿂뇪ힼ뮯뗤퓲에뇰몯쫽ꆢ뗤퓲에뇰몯쫽뗄ퟮ듳쳘헷룹ꆢWilksꆯꛋ볬퇩벰럖샠에뇰뷡맻(볻뇭4):Z=01331T02-01756T06+01319T07+01451T09뇭4WilksLambda훰늽에뇰럖컶뇭뇭421쳘헷횵뇭랽돌쳘헷횵랽닮냙럖뇈샛볆냙럖뇈뗤퓲쿠맘쾵쫽1a31744100101001001888ꆡꆡ힢:a1뗚1샠뗤퓲에뇰몯쫽놻폃폚럖컶ꆣ뇭422WilksLambda럖컶뇭랽돌볬퇩WilksLambda횵뾨랽횵ퟔ평뛈쿔훸탔쮮욽1012111611916401000뇭423럖샠뷡맻뇭b,c럖ꆡꆡퟩ풤닢ퟩ돉풱쫽솿ퟜꆡꆡ쫽01풭쪼볬퇩쫽횵082183112425냙럖뇈09818112100101410961010010붻닦볬퇩a쫽횵082183112425냙럖뇈09818112100101410961010010ꆡꆡ힢:a1붻닦볬퇩뷶뷶폃폚럖컶맽돌훐쯹쪹폃뗄퇹놾ꆣ퓚붻닦볬퇩훐,쎿룶퇹놾쫇춨맽샻폃좫늿퇹놾붨솢뗄몯쫽뷸탐럖샠뗄,뛸늻쫇룹뻝룃퇹놾놾짭ꆣb19811%뗄풭쪼퇹놾놻헽좷럖샠ꆣc19811%뗄붻닦볬퇩럖ퟩ퇹놾놻헽좷럖샠ꆣ룹뻝짏쫶뷡맻,뗤퓲에뇰몯쫽뗄ퟮ듳쳘헷룹ꆢWilksꆯꛋ볬퇩뚼쿔쪾돶쏷쿔뗄춳볆쿔훸탔,뛸쟒,쒣탍헻쳥에뇰싊룟듯9811%,벴컳에싊뷶캪119%ꆣ헢뇭쏷,닆컱삧뺳릫쮾뗄쯙뚯뇈싊ꆢ닺뢺햮싊ꆢ펯샻쓜솦뫍릫쮾맦쒣뿉틔ퟷ캪릫쮾랢짺닆컱웆닺뗄에뇰탅쾢,뿉룹뻝닆컱삧뺳릫쮾뗄4룶닆컱횸뇪릹돉뗄뗤퓲에뇰몯쫽,풤쿈에뛏릫쮾쫇럱뷸죫닆컱웆닺ힴ뿶ꆣ춬쪱,뗤퓲에뇰몯쫽뷸튻늽횤쪵쇋잰쏦럇닎쫽쿠맘럖컶뗄뷡맻,릫쮾뗄뛌웚뢶쿖쓜솦ꆢ닺뢺햮싊ꆢ펯샻쓜솦뫍릫쮾맦쒣벴쫇펰쿬릫쮾닆컱삧뺳뫍닆컱웆닺뗄릲춬틲쯘,튲쫇릫쮾듓닆컱삧뺳뇤떽닆컱웆닺뗄에뇰틲ퟓꆣ컥ꆢ뷡싛(튻)룹뻝놾컄뗄샭싛럖컶뫍쪵횤럖컶,컒맺짏쫐릫쮾좷쪵듦퓚닆컱삧뺳뫍닆컱웆닺솽훖늻춬17
싀뎤붭뗈:짏쫐릫쮾닆컱삧뺳폫닆컱웆닺뗄뇈뷏럖컶뗄닆컱ힴ뿶ꆣ1.릫쮾뗄펯샻쓜솦ꆢ닺뢺햮싊벰맦쒣춬쪱뛔쿝죫닆컱삧뺳뫍닆컱웆닺뗄릫쮾폐쿔훸펰쿬,쫇떼훂릫쮾쿝죫닆컱삧뺳뫍닆컱웆닺ힴ뿶뗄훘튪풭틲ꆣ쿝죫닆컱삧뺳뫍닆컱웆닺뗄릫쮾뚼펦룃퓚쳡룟펯샻쓜솦뗄춬쪱,붵뗍닺맦쒣ꆢ붵뗍닺뢺햮뇈싊ꆣ틲듋,쿝죫닆컱삧뺳뫍닆컱웆닺뗄웳튵탨튪톸쯙쳡룟펯샻쓜솦,냾샫믲럖솢늻쫊폚릫쮾뎤웚햽싔ꆢ쎻폐돉뎤잱솦믲펰쿬릫쮾헻쳥튵컱랢햹뗄럖릫쮾ꆢ늿쏅믲닺욷짺닺쿟,뫏샭뗷헻웳튵뗄닺릹돉,폅뮯놾뷡릹,벯훐폅쫆닺,쪹풴벯훐폚뺭펪훘뗣,듓뛸냚췑닆컱삧뺳,뇜쏢닆컱웆닺ꆣ2.닆컱삧뺳ퟷ캪늻춬폚닆컱웆닺뗄튻훖닆컱ힴ뿶,폐웤뛀쳘탔ꆣ릫쮾뗄뛌웚뢶쿖쓜솦ꆢ듦믵훜싊ꆢ샻쾢놣헏놶쫽벰뎤웚뺭펪탔닺뗄뇈샽뗈횸뇪뗄쳡룟,뛔폚웳튵냚췑닆컱삧뺳뻟폐훘튪뗄믽벫틢틥,떫뛔뒦폚닆컱웆닺ힴ뿶뗄웳튵,헢킩듫쪩뻍쿔뗃쪱맽뺳잨ꆣ닆컱삧뺳폫닆컱웆닺쫇릫쮾솽훖볈폐솪쾵폖폐쟸뇰뗄닆컱ힴ뿶,릫쮾탨튪뛔솽훖늻춬뗄닆컱ힴ뿶닉좡늻춬뗄뛔닟ꆣ3.뛔뒦폚닆컱삧뺳뗄짏쫐릫쮾,뿉춨맽쯙뚯뇈싊ꆢ닺뢺햮싊ꆢ펯샻쓜솦ꆢ릫쮾맦쒣릹돉뗄뗤퓲에뇰몯쫽풤닢릫쮾랢짺닆컱웆닺뗄뿉쓜탔,놾컄룸돶뗄풤뺯쒣탍뗄컳에싊뷶캪119%ꆣ뛸쟒,닆컱웆닺ퟩ뗄췢늿짳볆틢볻뷔훁짙캪놣쇴틢볻,뛸닆컱삧뺳퇹놾ퟩ컞놣쇴틢볻뗄뷶캪퇹놾ퟜ솿뗄27171%ꆣ틲듋,췢늿짳볆틢볻뛔폚닆컱삧뺳뫍닆컱웆닺뗄에뇰뻟폐튻뚨뗄뷢쫍솦ꆣ4.폫맺췢퇐뺿(Nancyetal.,1996,Gilbert1990)늻춬,쿖뷰쇷솿횸뇪뛔컒맺짏쫐릫쮾뗄닆컱ힴ뿶뗄에뛏늻뻟폐뷢쫍솦ꆣ헢훷튪쫇평폚컒맺짏쫐릫쮾쿖뷰쇷솿탅쾢늻ힼ좷,듳뛠닉폃맀볆뗄랽쪽,쪹뗃뛔췢릫늼뗄쿖뷰쇷솿탅쾢늻뻟폐뷢쫍솦,떼훂쿖뷰쇷솿탅쾢폫컒맺짏쫐릫쮾뗄닆컱삧뺳뫍닆컱웆닺ힴ뿶늻쿠맘ꆣ(뛾)놾컄뗄쪵횤퇐뺿듦퓚솽뗣늻ퟣ:뗚튻,뷶듓닆컱놨뇭쯹쳡릩뗄믡볆탅쾢뗄뷇뛈벴샻폃닆컱뇈싊살럖컶닆컱삧뺳뫍닆컱웆닺ꆣ뛸펰쿬웳튵닆컱ힴ뿶뗄틲쯘폐뫜뛠,늻뷶뻖쿞폚닆컱뇈싊,뮹폐췢늿뺭볃뮷뺳뗄뇤뮯ꆢ쪧튵싊ꆢ샻쾢싊뗈뗈,헢킩뚼붫뛔릫쮾뗄닆컱ힴ뿶닺짺펰쿬ꆣ뗚뛾,놾컄톡퓱퇹놾쪱쎻폐뾼싇탐튵틲쯘ꆣ평폚놾컄볓죫쇋쿖뷰쇷솿횸뇪,틲듋,횻쓜톡퓱1998쓪틔뫳뗄쫽뻝,헢퇹놾짭럻뫏쳵볾뗄퇹놾뻍늻뛠,죧맻퓙럖탐튵톡퓱퇹놾,쓇쎴럻뫏쳵볾뗄퇹놾쫽솿뻍럇뎣짙,늻쓜싺ퟣ춳볆럖컶튪쟳ꆣ쯹틔ꆰ,솽몦쿠좨좡웤쟡ꆱ,횻쓜짡웺탐튵틲쯘ꆣ닎뾼컄쿗돂뺲,1999ꆶ:짏쫐릫쮾닆컱뛱뮯풤닢뗄쪵횤럖컶ꆷꆶ,믡볆퇐뺿ꆷ뗚4웚ꆣ돂쿾ꆢ돂훎뫨,2000ꆶ:컒맺짏쫐릫쮾뗄닆컱삧뺳풤닢ꆷꆶ,훐맺믡볆폫닆컱퇐뺿ꆷ뗚2웚ꆣ마ꆢ쇵쫧솫,1999ꆶ:닆컱캣믺웳튵춶탐캪럖컶폫뛔닟ꆷꆶ,믡볆퇐뺿ꆷ뗚10웚ꆣ짲틕럥,1999ꆶ:놾뷡릹샭싛쪷ꆷ,뺭볃뿆톧돶냦짧ꆣ컢쫀얩ꆢ믆쫀훒,1986ꆶ:웳튵웆닺뗄럖컶횸뇪뫍풤닢쒣탍ꆷꆶ,훐맺뺭볃컊쳢ꆷ뗚6웚ꆣ컢쫀얩ꆢ슬쿍틥,2001ꆶ:컒맺짏쫐릫쮾닆컱삧뺳뗄풤닢쒣탍퇐뺿ꆷꆶ,뺭볃퇐뺿ꆷ뗚6웚ꆣ헅쇡,2000ꆶ:닆컱캣믺풤뺯럖컶에뇰쒣탍ꆷꆶ,쫽솿뺭볃벼쫵뺭볃퇐뺿ꆷ뗚3웚ꆣ붪탣뮪ꆢ쯯,2001ꆶ:훎샭죵뮯폫닆컱캣믺:튻룶풤닢쒣탍ꆷꆶ,쓏뾪맜샭움싛ꆷ뗚5웚ꆣAltman,E.,1968,FinancialRatios,DiscriminateAnalysisandthePredictionofCorporateBankruptcy,JournalofFinance23(Sept.),ꆪ,E.,1993,CorporateFinancialDistressandBankruptcy,2ndEdition,,E.,Haldeman,R.,1977,ZetaAnalysis:aNewModeltoIdentifyBankruptcyRiskofCorporations,JournalofBankingandFinance,,ꆪ,W.,1966,FinancialRatiosasPredictorsofFailure,SupplementtoJournalofAccountingResearch,ꆪ,.,1972,TheAuditorꆯsReportingObligation,(NewYork:AICPA),,.,1972,ADiscriminantAnalysisofPredictionofBusinessFailure,JournalofAccountingResearch(Spring):ꆪ,.,1932,AComparisonofRatiosofSuccessfulIndustrialEnterpriseswithThoseofFailedFirms,CertifiedPublicAccountant,,27
2004쓪뗚8웚ꆪ605,656ꆪ662,727ꆪ,.,,,Jr.,1991,PredictingCorporateBankruptcyUsingFailingFirms,ReviewofFinancialEconomics,,,ꆪ,G.,1986,FinancialStatementAnalysis,2nded,Prentice2Hall,EaglewoodCliffs,,.,,,1990,PredictingBankruptcyforFirmsinFinancialDistress,JournalofBusiness,Finance&Accounting,,,ꆪ,M.,1983,FailurePrediction:SensitivityofClassificationAccuracytoAlternativeStatisticalMethodsandVariableSets,JournalofAccountingandPubicPolicy2,ꆪ,W.,,,1993,AReexaminationofAuditorVersesModelAccuracyWithintheContextoftheGoing2ConcernOpinionDecision,ContemporaryAccountingResearch:TheJournaloftheCanadianAcademicAccountingAssociation,,,ꆪ,,CurrentTechniquesinBankruptcyPrediction,JournalofAccountingLiterature,,ꆪ,SusanE,andStevenAndes,1996,EvaluatingFirmsinFinancialDistress:AnEventHistoryAnalysis,JournalofAppliedBusinessResearch,ꆪ,.,1980,FinancialRatiosandtheProbabilisticPredictionofBankruptcy,JournalofAccountingResearch1980,(Spring):ꆪ.,Westerfield,RandolphW.,.,1999,CorporateFinance,,ꆪ,2001,TheUsefulnessofAggregatedandDisaggregatedCashFlowsinSignalingFinancialDistress,AdvancesinQuantitativeAnalysisofFinanceandAccounting,Volume9,pages55ꆪ,XuLili&ZhouLin(JilinUniversity)Abstract:Thispaperarguesthatcorporatefinancialdistressandfinancialbankruptcyaretwodifferentfinancialsituations,andtheyshouldbeforecasted,,thiswillgoagainstdiscriminateandanalyzecorporatefinancialsituation,,thispapertakes3yearslistedcompaniesassample,tostudycorporatefinancialdistressandfinancialbankruptcyempirically,,leverageandfirmsizecaninfluencesimultaneouslyfinancialdistressandfinancialbankruptcysignificant,,differentwithforeignstudies,:Financialdistress;Financialbankruptcy;FinancialsituationJELClassification:G340,G320,G350(퓰죎뇠벭:횣ꆡ붡)(킣뛔:쿾ꆡ언)37
