MASTERING LONG RANGE PLANNING
FORECAST PROCESSES
W
EBINAR
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SPEAKERS
ANDREW WARD
Head of Implementation,
J+D Forecasting
AMANDA RANDALL
Implementation Director,
J+D Forecasting
DAN CHANCELLOR
VP, Thought Leadership,
Norstella
MAKING SURE LONG RANGE PLANNING CYCLES
ARE SUCCESSFUL – KEY WEBINAR TAKEAWAYS
• LRP can present many challenges in execution LRP forecast cycles are a key component of the annual processes that take
place within Pharmaceutical and Biotech companies, and as such are important to deliver in an efficient and insightful manner
• And there are a range of solutions available that companies can choose from, depending on their specific situation and
challenges being faced
KEY CONCEPTS
We will highlight and discuss key concepts that
underpin any forecasting solution strategy, and
the key considerations that need to be
factored in.
UNDERSTANDING
You will gain a better appreciation of the
different possible solutions, with the chance
to reflect on which might be most appropriate
and application to your situation.
APPLYING IDEAS
Examples and a case study will be used to
bring to life how some of these solutions can
be implemented to transform an LRP
process.
OUR AIM
We will walk through a range of
solutions that will help tackle the
common challenges and pain points
seen in LRP processes. A broad
range of technical and operational
ideas will be discussed, all aimed at
transforming how the typical activities
associated with LRP are executed.
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SUMMARY OF LRP FORECAST CYCLE AND
TYPICAL CHALLENGES ENCOUNTERED
LONG RANGE PLANNING PROCESS AND HOW IT FITS
IN WITH OTHER COMMON FORECASTING CYCLES
LONG RANGE PLAN
(LRP)
• Long-term focus covering pipeline
and in market brands for next 5
years+.
• Feeds into strategic planning.
• Involves mix of global, regional and
affiliates.
• Focus on understanding drivers, risks
and opportunities.
• Very short-term focus covering any
product with expected revenue within the
year.
• Feeds into tactical in-year activities.
• Mainly affiliates with extent of global /
regional involvement varying by company.
• Focus on tracking actuals against budget
to understand performance.
LATEST BEST ESTIMATE (LBE)
year.
• Involves mix of global, regional and
affiliates.
• Focus on creating a robust estimate for
internal planning.
ANNUAL OPERATIONAL
PLAN (AOP)
• Short-term focus covering launched / close
to launch brands for next 1-2 years.
• Feeds into budget setting for following
LONG RANGE PLAN (LRP)
LATEST BEST ESTIMATE (LBE)
ANNUAL OPERATIONAL PLAN (AOP)
JAN FEB MAR APR MAY JUN JUL AUG SEP OCT NOV DEC
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LONG RANGE PLANNING WORKFLOW –
ROLES OF VARIOUS STAKEHOLDERS
Affiliates populate /
update forecast model
GLOBAL / REGIONAL AFFILIATES
Develop forecast
model
Generate country models with pre-
filled data and send out
Highlight key discussion points
Affiliate models
consolidated and
visualised
Agree with
models?
Final
consolidation
Review / input from key stakeholders
Outputs for
management
Develop forecast
model
Affiliates review and finalise
forecast model ready for
Global / Regional
Review / input
from key Affiliate
stakeholdersModels
reviewed
Yes
No
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LONG RANGE PLANNING WORKFLOW –
BALANCING ROLES OF VARIOUS STAKEHOLDERS
OBJECTIVE:
Efficiently deliver long range forecast for the business and provide the required information to each stakeholder group in a timely manner
Any small inefficiencies which exist will be
amplified across the whole process
Significant coordination is required across
many people in a wide range of roles
Clear alignment is needed between multiple
models and systems for easy analysis
Inflexible timeline to complete required tasks
SOUNDS LIKE A SIMPLE OBJECTIVE
BUT DIFFICULT TO COMPLETE BECAUSE…
Wide scope across many brands,
countries and functions
Lots of moving parts covering various
data sources, systems and people
Greater potential for uncertainty due
to forecast time-period
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LONG RANGE PLANNING CHALLENGES AND SOLUTIONS CAN CONCEPTUALLY
BE GROUPED INTO SEVERAL CATEGORIES
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USING INCONSISTENT, POTENTIALLY UNSUITABLE FORECAST MODELS
SOLUTION - Optimizing forecast models for your stakeholders and the LRP
DIFFICULT TO MANAGE FORECAST MODEL FILES
SOLUTION - Ensuring an efficient and robust process for managing forecast model files
STAKEHOLDER COORDINATION AND ENGAGEMENT TIME CONSUMING
SOLUTION - Effective management of stakeholders during LRP and as change is implemented
INEFFICIENT AND MANUAL DATA AGGREGATION, ANALYZING AND REPORTING
SOLUTION - Creating an efficient analytics setup to meet expected internal requirements
Before considering specific solutions to address each challenge, it is important to consider whether an
overarching forecasting platform is required to provide the centralized framework for these solutions to sit within…
01
02
03
04
SOLUTIONS PROVEN TO DELIVER
SUCCESSFUL LRP CYCLES
CONSIDER IF YOU NEED AN OVERARCHING
FORECASTING PLATFORM AS PART OF THE SOLUTION
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TIPPING POINT
Complexity, inefficiencies and poor
responsiveness involved in an
informal system becomes a
business-critical issue
– it's at this point where a formal
system needs to be considered.
As the number of models, forecast cycles, users, countries, scenarios, brands and business units included in the LRP
increase, then the need for an overarching forecasting platform increases.
USING INCONSISTENT, POTENTIALLY UNSUITABLE, FORECAST MODELS
OPTIMIZING FORECAST MODELS FOR YOUR STAKEHOLDERS AND THE LRP
01
KEEP THE FORECAST
MODELS IN EXCEL
Moving away from Excel leads to poor
compliance, low visibility, and reduced team
engagement, ultimately making forecasting
ineffective
ENSURE CONSISTENCY OF MODEL
DESIGN AND / OR OUTPUTS
Using a single, standardized template across all
markets ensures alignment of key assumptions
and outputs, making consolidation and
comparison easy
MAKE SURE THE RIGHT MODELING
METHODOLOGY IS CHOSEN
Patient flow models are best for progressive diseases,
while a simple bottom-up approach suits small markets
or rare diseases with limited prescribers and resources
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DIFFICULT TO MANAGE FORECAST MODEL FILES
ENSURING AN EFFICIENT AND ROBUST PROCESS FOR MANAGING FORECAST
MODEL FILES
EMBED THE ABILITY TO EASILY SCALE
THE APPROACH OVER TIME AS BRANDS
AND / OR COUNTRIES ADDED
As brands approach launch, forecasting must expand to
include more markets beyond G8 countries, requiring
seamless integration of users and models into the system
DEFINE PROCESS FOR LRP WITH
KEY STAGES, REQUIREMENTS AND
ASSOCIATED TIMINGS DETAILED
Clear processes, well-communicated timelines,
and regular touchpoints are essential to
effectively engage and support all stakeholders
USE A CLEAR AND CONSISTENT
FILING STRUCTURE FOR FORECAST
MODELS AND ASSOCIATED FILES
Proper file management is crucial because it
eliminates wasted time searching for the right model
and allows teams to focus on value-adding activities
during the LRP process
02
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STAKEHOLDER COORDINATION AND ENGAGEMENT TIME CONSUMING
EFFECTIVE MANAGEMENT OF STAKEHOLDERS DURING LRP
AND AS CHANGE IS IMPLEMENTED
PUT IN PLACE TRAINING AND SUPPORT
TAILORED TO THE DIFFERENT
STAKEHOLDER GROUPS
Tailor training sessions depending on stakeholder profiles –
for example in-depth users versus reviewers versus
consuming dashboards, or country versus regional users
MAP STAKEHOLDER NEEDS
AND DESIGN VALUE FOR ALL
WHEN DEPLOYING NEW TOOLS
Keep local market stakeholder engagement
high by factoring in the key requirements to
the model and system that are essential to
their forecasting and bring them value
FOCUS ON THE KEY PRIORITIES AND
PHASE INTRODUCTION OF NEW TOOLS TO
MANAGE CHANGE EFFECTIVELY
Take a phased approach for implementing a new forecasting
system - focusing on key markets and brands in the initial
rollout and including more markets and brands in future
phases
03
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INEFFICIENT AND MANUAL DATA AGGREGATION, ANALYZING AND REPORTING
CREATING AN EFFICIENT ANALYTICS SETUP TO MEET EXPECTED
INTERNAL REQUIREMENTS04
SET UP SYSTEM FOR EFFICIENT
CONSOLIDATION AND COMPARISON
ANALYSIS ACROSS ALL REQUIRED
FORECASTS
Manually consolidating separate Excel files,
leading to inefficiencies and frequent errors.
Implementing an automated system streamlines
consolidation and analysis, saving time and
ensuring accuracy
INVEST IN AUTOMATION OF
KEY REPORTS TO DELIVER
EFFICIENCIES
Automation eliminates the repetitive task of
manually creating key reports, allowing you to focus
on the high-value aspects of the LRP process
DESIGN REAL TIME FORECASTING
TOOLS TO EMPOWER INTERNAL
DISCUSSIONS
Implementation of ‘What-If’ analysis reports,
where users can change predetermined variables
and immediately see the impact on the revenue
forecast, enabling swift responses to ad-hoc
questions from senior internal stakeholders
SET UP ANALYTICS TO EASILY
INTEGRATE INTO OTHER
COMPANY SYSTEMS
Supports system integration by enabling tailored
data extracts to be exported, streamlining the
process of submitting forecasting data into the
internal reporting system
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CASE STUDY: IMPLEMENTATION
OF FORECASTING PLATFORM
CASE STUDY: IMPLEMENTATION OF FORECASTING PLATFORM
EXAMPLE DELIVERABLES:
CONTEXT
A global biopharmaceutical company needed a
solution to improve forecasting and analytics for
patient, demand, ex-factory, and gross-to-net
data across countries and brands.
APPROACH
Deployment of a forecasting platform that
centralized models, enabled quick output
comparisons, and streamlined sales forecast
integration into the finance system.
IMPACT
The platform enabled easy model comparison,
consolidation, and analysis, saving time through
automated data extraction into PowerPoint and
the finance system, and was expanded across
the entire portfolio.
We provided a configured and customized forecasting platform that was deployed within the client system, stored all
forecast models, facilitated the aggregation / analysis of multiple forecasting methodologies and provided standardized,
click of a button, PowerPoint extractions…
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CONCLUSIONS AND QUESTIONS
CONCLUSIONS
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An overarching forecasting platform is a key component in enabling
effective implementation of the different solutions that help to address
common challenges when conducting LRP
Optimising your forecast models is a critical aspect when looking to
remove challenges
Ensuring a structured approach to storing / managing access to
forecast files will eliminate many common challenges
Critical to manage change effectively through focusing on key
priorities, providing sufficient support and ensuring value for all
stakeholders
Ensuring the core analytics can be completed efficiently is
important, plus identifying ways to provide added value, such as real
time forecasting and automation
QUESTIONS?
THANK YOU.
