뗚8뻭ꆡ뗚2웚ꆡꆡꆡꆡꆡꆡ훐맺맜샭뿆톧2000쓪ꆡꆡ6퓂ꆡꆡꆡCꆡꆡꆡꆡꆡꆡꆡꆡꆡ,.,2000컄헂뇠뫅:1003-207(2000)02-0050-06뷰죚쫐뎡듓훚탐캪뗄쫽샭쒣탍췵훒폱(뫚쇺붭닆헾뿆톧킣,맾뛻뇵ꆡ150028)햪ꆡ튪:놾컄쫗쿈냑춶붻틗헟럖돉솽훖늻춬뗄샠탍ꆪꆪꆪ쇬춷헟뫍ힷ쯦헟,좻뫳퓚듋믹뒡짏럖뇰첽쳖헢솽훖샠탍춶탐캪뗄쫽샭쒣탍,춬쪱뛔ힷ쯦헟뗄듓훚춶랽쪽뷸탐쇋짮죫뗄퇐뺿,듓뛸뷒쪾뷰죚쫐뎡뚯떴뗄샭싛믺훆ꆣ맘볼듊:뷰죚쫐뎡;쇬춷헟;ힷ쯦헟;쫽샭쒣탍훐춼럖샠뫅:C931;F224ꆡꆡꆡ컄쿗뇪쪶싫:A뷰죚쫐뎡ퟷ캪튻룶쫐뎡쳥쾵,웤냼삨탭뛠뻟쳥뗄ퟓ쫐뎡,뇈죧햮좯쫐뎡ꆢ막욱쫐뎡ꆢ췢믣쫐뎡뗈ꆣ헢킩쫐뎡훐뚼샫늻뾪쫐뎡훷쳥(벴붻틗헟)뫍쫐뎡뿍쳥(붻틗릤뻟)ꆣ뷰죚쫐뎡뗄컈늽랢햹뫍ힳ듳ꆢ뻧쇒뗄뚯떴뚼폫웤붻틗헟뗄춶탐캪벰웤랽쪽뷴쏜뗘쿠뮥맘솪ퟅꆣ쳘뇰뗄,퓚1987쓪ꆰ뫚즫탇웚튻ꆱ듳뚯떴횮뫳,듙쪹뷰죚뺭볃톧볒뾪쪼뛔뒫춳뺭볃톧뗄믹놾볙짨횮튻ꆪꆪꆪ춶헟쫇퓚샭탔풤웚뗄믹뒡짏춶뻶닟,죋쏇믡폐킧샻폃튻쟐폐폃탅쾢ꆪꆪꆪ쳡돶쇋훊틉ꆣ퓚뷰죚쫐뎡훐,평폚막욱쫐뎡쫇ퟮ캪뗤탍뗄튻훖뷰죚춶쫐뎡,쯼폐ퟅ훚뛠뗄춶붻틗헟,놾컄힡막욱쫐뎡뗄헢튻춻돶쳘헷살뻟쳥햹뾪쳖싛뫍럖컶ꆣ쫐뎡춶붻틗헟뿉틔럖돉솽듳샠:튻샠쫇쇬춷헟,웤춶탐캪폐튻뚨뗄ꆰ맦싉ꆱ뿉ퟱ쫘;쇭튻샠쫇ힷ쯦헟,쯤좻뛔춶탐캪뛸퇔,웤폐튻킩ퟔ벺뗄쮼쿫,떫훷튪쫇쒣럂쇬떼헟뗄춶랽쪽ꆣ1ꆡ쇬춷헟뗄춶탐캪컒쏇쿖퓚뾼싇튻훖볲떥뗄막욱쫐뎡,볙짨횻폐튻훖룸뚨뗄막욱,웤쿖퓚쫐뎡볛룱캪Pꆣ짨폃X뇭쪾막욱뗄헦쪵볛횵,쿔좻X쫇튻룶쯦믺뇤솿(.)ꆣ뛔폚X뗄럖늼쟩뿶,쇬춷헟뫍ힷ쯦헟뿉틔펵폐늻춬뗄맛뗣ꆣ짨L쫇X뗄럖늼몯쫽,폃mL,vL럖뇰뇭쪾X뗄뻹횵뫍랽닮ꆣ캪쇋닻쫶컒쏇뗄쿫램,쿖뷱볙짨P<E(X)ꆣ쿔좻,힢틢떽헢쪱폐헽뗄E(x)-P횮횵,쯹틔죴릺싲막욱퓲붫믱뗃튻룶쯦믺뗄샻죳ꆣ컒쏇붫첽쳖뗄컊쳢쫇쪮럖ퟔ좻뗄,벴릺싲뛠짙캪ퟮ뫃?퓚풤웚킧폃몯쫽뗄뿲볜쿂,컒쏇뿉틔믱뗃튻룶볲떥뗄믘듰ꆣ죧맻폃A뇭쪾릺싲막욱뗄쫽솿,쓇쎴평풤웚킧폃몯쫽ퟮ듳뮯풭샭,펵폐킧폃몯쫽u(A)뗄샭탔쇬춷헟펦룃톡퓱A3,쪹웤싺ퟣ:ꇷU(A)=EꆲU(X-P)ꆳ,U(A3)=maxU(A)(1)늢쟒듯떽ퟮ듳뮯ꆣ쇭췢,뛔폚릺싲쫽솿A뛸퇔,볙짨듦퓚튻룶짏뷧A#,벴AꇜA#듦퓚ꆣ헢틢캶ퟅ춶헟뗄닆뢻쫇폐쿞뗄ꆣ퓚헢튻볙짨쿂,죝틗횪뗀뛔폚ΠAꇊꆲ0,A#ꆳ쫇틢틥뗄ꆣꆡꆡ쫕룥죕웚:1999-05-10;탞뚩죕웚:1999-08-25ퟷ헟볲뷩:췵훒폱(1963-),쓐(몺ퟥ),즽뚫쪡몣퇴쿘죋,맾뛻뇵릤튵듳톧펦폃쫽톧,쮶쪿ꆢ뢱뷌쫚,퇐뺿랽쿲:뷰죚뿆톧,뛔닟싛,뺭볃쫽톧ꆢ뺭볃춳볆뗈.' 1994-2014 China Academic Journal Electronic Publishing House. All rights reserved.
뗚2웚ꆡꆡꆡꆡꆡꆡꆡꆡꆡꆡꆡꆡꆡ췵훒폱:뷰죚쫐뎡듓훚탐캪뗄쫽샭쒣탍ꆤ51ꆤꆡퟮ폅릺싲솿퓚뛔Uퟶ돶쫊떱뗄볙짨횮쿂,컒쏇솢뿌퇐뺿U뗄튻킩폐폃뗄탔훊ꆣ뚨샭1ꆡ죧맻U쫇뗝퓶뗄,퇏룱낼뗄,쓇쎴U퓚ꆲ0,A#ꆳ짏쫇솬탸뗄,늢쟒쫇퇏룱낼뗄ꆣ뺡맜U뗄낼탔뾴웰살쫇쿔좻뗄,떫쫇쯼퓚뇕쟸볤짏뗄솬탸탔죔횵뗃룸돶횤쏷ꆣU퓚ꆲ0,A#ꆳ짏뗄솬탸탔뗄퇏룱낼탔놣횤쇋퓚쟸볤짏ퟮ폅횵A뗄듦퓚탔뫍캨튻탔ꆣ헢샯쯹첽쳖뗄컊쳢,튪짦벰떽퓌몬ퟅ헽뗄ퟮ폅릺싲솿뗄쳵볾,횱맛짏붲,헢펦룃쎻폐쪲쎴컊쳢,튲뻍쫇:1)횤좯뗄쯦믺탔듳늿럖뚼뒦폚폐샻뿉춼뗄쟩뿶,믲헟쮵X뗄룅싊럖늼뻟폐뫜뿭뗄폒캲틭;2)춶헟쫇럇럧쿕믘뇜헟,믲헟쮵춶헟쾲뮶쎰쿕ꆣ컒쏇뿉틔횤쏷,퓚쫊틋뗄볙짨쿂쓜릻좥횤쏷춶헟뗄ퟮ폅릺싲솿쫇헽뗄ꆣ쫂쪵짏,퓚룸뚨뗄막욱뻟폐쯦믺뇤솿X뫍쫐뎡쿖볛캪P쪱,춶뷡맻뗄쯦믺탔뿌뮮뻍쫇E(|X-P|),튲뻍쫇틔P캪훐탄뗄튻뷗뻸뛔뻘ꆣ튻훖볲뷝쏨쫶룃솿뗄랽램쫇,붫웤뇭쫶캪춶뗄뿉쓜쯰쪧뫍뿉쓜쫕틦뗄솽룶럖솿뻸뛔횵횮뫍:E(|X-p|)=ꇒp(p-x)dL(x)0ꇒ+ꇞp(x-p)dL(x)(2)+ꆡꆡ쿂쏦,컒쏇냑짏쫶뗄헢룶솿뷸튻늽럖돉ꆰ폐샻뿉춼ꆱ뫍ꆰ컞샻뿉춼ꆱ뗄쯦믺탔,뻟쳥ퟷ램쫇샻폃쿂쏦뗄짌(x-p)dL(x)Qp(p,Xꇒ+ꇞ)=ꇒp(p-x)dL(x)0뛔폚뷏듳뗄Q(p,X)뛸퇔,쯼뇭쪾룼폐샻뿉춼뗄춶탐캪,듋쪱,컒쏇늻럁돆횮캪ꆰ폐샻뿉춼뗄짌횵ꆱꆣ쇭튻훖볲뷝뿉탐뗄쏨쫶풤웚킧폃ퟮ듳뮯뗄랽램,쫇춨맽킧폃몯쫽u퓚0뗣뗄떥뇟떼쫽횮볤뗄짌살뿌뮮뗄,벴u’-(0)qu(0)=u’+(0)뛔폚뷏듳뗄qu(0)횵뛸퇔,쯼뇭쪾뿉쓜뗄뫜킡쫕틦폫뿉쓜뗄뫜킡쯰쪧쿠뛔뇈뛸싛뛔쯰쪧뗄뷏뛠떣탄,듋뒦늻럁돆횮캪ꆰ떣탄뗄짌ꆱꆣ쿂쏦뗄뚨샭볲뷝뗘쮵쏷쇋,죧맻춶탐캪폐샻폚춼뗄짌듳폚춶헟뗄떣탄짌쪱,쓇쎴A>0ꆣ뚨샭2ꆡ죴Q(p,X)>qu(0),퓲A3>0(3)횤쏷ꆡ듓틑횪쳵볾돶랢,컒쏇쓜췆떼u퓚0뗣뒦뗄폒떼쫽캪헽횵ꆣ쫂쪵짏,샻폃U뗄낼탔쓜릻뷨훺폚퓚0뗣뒦뗄ퟳ떼쫽u’-(0)뫍폒떼쫽u’+(0)살뇭쪾u’+(0)ꆣ짨r(A,x)={uꆲA(x-p-u(0)ꆳ}/A(x-p)볇ꆡu(A)-u(0)A=ꇒpr(A,x)(x-p)dL(x)+0ꇒ+ꇞr(A,x)(x-p)dL(x)p죧맻A+ꇺ0,뛔폒뇟뗄솽룶쪽ퟓ샻폃뿘훆쫕솲뚨샭,쓇쎴u’+(0)=u’-(0)ꇒp(X-P)dL(x)+u’(0)+ꇒ+ꇞ(X-P)dL(x)0p힢틢떽짏쏦Q(p,X)폫qu(0)뗄뚨틥,듓뛸뚨샭돉솢ꆣ힢틢떽,죧맻U퓚(0)0뗣쫇뿉캢뗄,쓇쎴u’-qu(0)==1,듓뛸짏쫶뚨샭2뗄쳵볾뿉볲뮯캪muL’+(0)' 1994-2014 China Academic Journal Electronic Publishing House. All rights reserved.
ꆤ52ꆤ훐맺맜샭뿆톧ꆡꆡꆡꆡꆡꆡꆡꆡꆡꆡꆡꆡꆡꆡꆡꆡꆡꆡ2000쓪>p,평볙짨쳵볾횪헢쫇돉솢뗄ꆣ떱좻,컒쏇힢틢떽뗄컊쳢쫇A퓚X뗄풤웚횵mL짏뗄쿠맘탔,쿂쏦뗄뚨샭3뛔듋룸돶쇋튻훖돤럖쳵볾ꆣ뚨샭3ꆡ죧맻(1)u쫇솽듎뿉캢뗄;(2)Eꆲ(X-p)u’(X-p)ꆳ듦퓚;(3)Eꆲ(X-p)uꇥ(X-p)ꆳ듦퓚;죧맻평u’쯹닺짺볓좨뗄u욽뻹쿠뛔럧쿕뫍룅싊쫇킡폚1뗄뮰,쓇쎴,A쯦ퟅmL뛸퓶듳ꆣ횤쏷ꆡ평뗚튻룶쳵볾돶랢,폐E{(mL+Y-P)u’ꆲA3(mL+Y-p)ꆳ}=0쯼쫇ꚵ(mL,A3)=0뗄탎쪽,쿔좻5ꚵ/5A3<0듓뛸샻폃틾몯쫽떼훂릫쪽,컒쏇뇘탫튪쟳5ꚵ/5mL>0,믲헟E{u’ꆲA3(mL+Y-P)ꆳ}+E{A3(mL+Y-P)uꇥA3(mL+Y-P)}>0헢튻늻뗈쪽튲쓜릻킴캪ꇒ+ꇞeꆲA(x-p)ꆳu’ꆲA(x-p)ꆳdL(x)0ꇒu’ꆲA(x-P)ꆳdL(x)ꆡꆡ웤훐ꆡe(x)=-xuꇥ(x)/u’(x)뇭쪾u뗄쿠뛔럧쿕퇡뛱돌뛈ꆣ퓚뷰죚퇐뺿훐,죋쏇뎣뎣맘힢쳘쫢쟩탎,헢쫇튻훖샭뷢뫍죏쪶컊쳢뗄폐틦랽쪽ꆣ퓚듋,컒쏇늻럁뾼싇뻟폐튻훖뎣횵(뻸뛔횵)럧쿕뗄쟩탎:u(x)=-exp(-ꛋx)(4)ꆡꆡ퓚듋쟩탎훐,뚨샭3쳡릩쇋쿂쏦뗄떥뗷탔돤럖쳵볾:g’(-ꛋA3)1g3-p<(-ꛋA)ꛋA3(5)ꆡꆡ샻폃U뗄튻뷗떼쫽듦퓚헢튻쫂쪵,짏쏦(5)쪽쫇돉솢뗄,뛔뚨틥퓚A3(ퟷ캪튻룶벯뫏)훐뗄횵뛸퇔,폐g’(-ꛋA3)g(-ꛋA3-p=0(6))ꆡꆡ캪쇋횤쏷퓚뎣횵(뻸뛔횵)럧쿕쿂,A3쯦믺mL뛸퓶듳,컒쏇탨튪쿂쏦뗄뷡싛:뚨샭4ꆡ쎿튻룶뻘짺돉몯쫽쫇뛔쫽춹뗄ꆣ횤쏷:힢틢떽,뛔폚쎿튻룶룸뚨뗄xtx,e쫇t뗄뛔쫽춹몯쫽ꆣ평몯쫽txe뛔x뛸퇔,뿉틔ퟩ뫏돉튻룶뻘짺돉몯쫽ꆣ좻뛸,퓚ퟩ뫏맽돌훐,뛔쫽춹탔죔좻쫇놣돖늻뇤뗄ꆣ듓뛸,뷡싛돉솢ꆣ뚨샭5ꆡ죧맻A3<A#,쓇쎴퓚횸쫽킧폃몯쫽쿂뗄ퟮ폅릺싲솿A3쯦ퟅmL뛸퓶듳ꆣ횤쏷:퓚볙짨뗄쟩탎쿂,U(A)=-Eꆲ-ꛋA(X-p)eꆳ=-Eꆲ-ꛋA(Y+mL-P)eꆳꆡꆡ웤훐Y=X-mL,짨g쫇Y뗄뻘짺돉몯쫽,듓뛸컒쏇폐U(A)=-ꛋA(P-mL)g-e(-ꛋA)(8)ꆡꆡ볙짨A3<A#,폫U뗄튻뷗쳵볾뛔펦뗄쫇뗈볛폚' 1994-2014 China Academic Journal Electronic Publishing House. All rights reserved.
뗚2웚ꆡꆡꆡꆡꆡꆡꆡꆡꆡꆡꆡꆡꆡ췵훒폱:뷰죚쫐뎡듓훚탐캪뗄쫽샭쒣탍ꆤ53ꆤg’(-ꛋA3)p-mL(9)g(-ꛋA3=)ꆡꆡퟮ폅릺싲솿A3쯦mL뛸퓶듳,떱쟒뷶떱A3뗝퓶쪱,듋랽돌퓚짏쫶틢틥짏쫇뗝복뗄ꆣ헢훖쟩뿶뗄돉솢,떱쟒뷶떱,gꇤ/g쫇뗝퓶뗄,믲헟떱쟒뷶떱g쫇뛔쫽춹뗄ꆣ평뚨샭4횪,듋뚨샭돉솢ꆣ쇭췢,컒쏇힢틢떽,떱볙짨ꛃ=g’/g,평폚g쫇뛔쫽춹뗄ꛃ쫇뿉쓦뗄쫂쪵,듓뛸A3듋쪱뿉뇭쪾돉쿂쏦뗄탎쪽ꆣA3=-ꛃ-1(p-mL)/ꛋ(10)ꆡꆡ죧맻냑컊쳢뗄쳘쫢탔뾼싇뷸좥뗄뮰,쓇쎴헢샯늻럁뾼달Y캪헽첬뗄쟩탎,믲lng(t)=ꛔ2Lt/2,듋쪱ꛋ,(t)=ꛔLt,헢퇹짏쏦뗄뇭쪾뿉틔볲뷝뗘돉캪A3mL-p=ꛋꛔ(11)L퓚헢훖쳘쫢쟩탎쿂,컒쏇랢쿖,떱평ꛔL뒫뗝뗄ꆰ맛뗣탅쾢ꆱ늻좷뚨탔퓶볓쪱,A3붫뗝복ꆣꆡퟮ폅릺싲솿뗄뇆뷼떱뾼달ꛃ뗄튻뷗첩샕뷼쯆쪱,컒쏇폐ꛃg(0)gꇥ(0)-gꇤ2(0(t)=ꛃ(0)+tꛃ’(0)=t(12)g2)(0)ꆡꆡ샻폃g(0)=1;gꇤ(0)=0;gꇥ(0)ꛔL컒쏇쓜릻샻폃뷢랽돌살뗃떽뷼쯆뗄ퟮ폅릺싲솿P-ꆲmL+(-ꛋAꛔLꆳ=0(14)듓뛸뗃AmL-p=ꛋꛔ(15)Lꆡꆡ힢틢떽,퓚헽첬뗄쟩탎쿂,A3=A^,뛸쟒A^쫇죝틗놻좷뚨뗄ꆣ2ꆡힷ쯦헟춶탐캪ힷ쯦헟춶탐캪,놾컄헢샯룸돶솽룶뿌뮮뗄쫽톧쒣탍,튻훖쒣탍풭샭볲떥,떫뇭쿖탎쪽짔뢴퓓튻킩;쇭튻훖쒣탍뇭쿖탎쪽볲떥,죝틗뷒쪾돶쇬춷헟뫍ힷ쯦헟횮볤뗄쿠뮥솪쾵ꆣ뢴퓓쒣탍짨F뇭쪾ힷ쯦헟틀뻝ퟔ벺뗄횪쪶(믲춶뺭퇩)뛔막욱볛횵럖컶뫳뗃떽뗄맛뗣,L뇭쪾쇬춷헟뛔막욱볛횵럖컶뗃떽뗄맛뗣ꆣ쿖퓚,컒쏇볙짨,ힷ쯦헟폃쇬춷헟뗄춶맛뗣뫍ퟔ벺맛뗣F뗄ퟩ뫏살릹돉ힷ쯦헟뗄춶탐뚯랽헫ꆣ헢퇹,컒쏇뻍폐H(X)=ꛇF(x)+ꛇL(X)(16)웤훐ꛇ쫇뇭쪾ힷ쯦헟ퟔ벺뗄ퟔ탅돌뛈,뛸ꛇ=1-ꛇ뇭쪾ힷ쯦헟놻쇬춷헟뗄춶맛뗣컼틽뗄돌뛈,H(X)뻍쫇ힷ쯦헟뗄춶탐캪뗄뇭쪾탎쪽ꆣ짨B3쫇ힷ쯦헟풤웚킧폃뗄ퟮ듳뮯,벴쯼쫇쿂쏦컊쳢탎쪽뗄뷢:B3=m(H)axE{ꛔꆲB(X-p)ꆳ}B웤훐ꛔ,쫇ힷ쯦헟킧폃몯쫽(헢샯,컒쏇쪹폃억틁싼뫍쒦룹쮹쳘뛷틢틥쿂뗄킧폃몯쫽)ꆣ횸쫽럻뫅H뇭쪾풤웚쯣ퟓ뛔볆쯣풤웚막욱볛횵뗄뿌뮮ꆣ헢퇹짏쏦몯쫽ퟮ듳뮯뗄탎쪽,Q(B)=E(H){ꛔꆲB(X-p)ꆳ}' 1994-2014 China Academic Journal Electronic Publishing House. All rights reserved.
ꆤ54ꆤ훐맺맜샭뿆톧ꆡꆡꆡꆡꆡꆡꆡꆡꆡꆡꆡꆡꆡꆡꆡꆡꆡꆡ2000쓪룃탎쪽쓜뷸튻늽뇭쪾캪Q(B)=ꛇE(F){ꛔꆲB(X-p)ꆳ}+ꛇE(L){ꛔꆲB(X-p)ꆳ}(17)쿂쏦,컒쏇볲뮯튻킩볇뫅,쇮k(B)=E(F){ꛔꆲB(X-p)ꆳ}h(B,mL)=E(L){ꛔꆲB(X-pꆳ},듓뛸폐Q(B)=ꛇk(B)+ꛇh(B,mL)뛔k,hퟶ돶쫊떱뗄볙짨,벴쯼쏇쫇낼뗄,뛔h뗣뛸퇔,떱mL뗝퓶쪱뿉틔떽듯ퟮ듳뮯뗣ꆣ죧맻컒쏇룼뷸튻늽뗘볙짨뮹뻟폐뿉캢탔뗄뮰,쓇쎴뮹쓜릻췆돶튻킩뷡싛ꆣ캪쇋쳖싛랽뇣,퓝쪱볙짨p<mF<mLꆣ춶헟뚼믡랢쿖막욱뚨볛뷏뗍,돽럇쇬춷헟뛔듋쫂폐룼잿쇒뗄뾴램ꆣ퓚벫뛋쟩탎쿂,벴ꛇ=1,ힷ쯦헟붫톡퓱Bꇤ,쪹뗃kꇤ(Bꇤ)=0;퓚쿠랴뗄쇭튻훖쟩탎쿂,벴ꛇ=0,헢쪱ힷ쯦헟붫믡톡퓱Bꇥ>Bꇤꆲhꇤ1,mL)=0ꆳꆣ쿔좻,뛔폚Πꛇꇊ(0,1)훐튲쫇낼뗄,늢퓚B3ꇊ(Bꇤ,Bꇥ)뒦듯떽ퟮ듳뮯ꆣ룃컊쳢퓚폚톰헒쪹뗃B3쯦mL뛸뗝퓶뗄쳵볾ꆣ듓쿂쏦뗄맘쾵훐ꛇkꇤ(B)+ꛇh’12(B,mL)=0(19)컒쏇쓜릻횪뗀B쫇죧뫎틀삵폚mL뛸뇤뮯뗄ꆣ퓋폃틾몯쫽뚨샭,폐dB-hꇥ12(B,mL)=dmLgꇥ0)(B(2)ꆡꆡ퓚춨뎣횸쫽킧폃뗄쟩탎쿂,컒쏇쓜릻뗃떽튻킩폐좤뗄쳵볾ꆣ퓚헢튻쳘쫢쟩탎쿂,컒쏇폐h(B,mL)=-expꆲ-<B(mL)ꆳg(-<B)(21)웤훐,g뇭쪾평쯦믺뇤솿Y=X-mL쯹짺돉뗄뻘몯쫽ꆣ춨맽볆쯣뗃:B(mL-p)hꇥ12(B,mL)=<-<eg(-<B)ꆲ1-<B(mL-p+g’(-<B)(22)g(-<B)ꆡꆡ룃쪽럻뫅폫1-<Bꆲmg’(-<B)L-p+g(-<B)ꆳ=1-<BꆲmL-p+ꛃ(<B)ꆳ(23))뗄쿠춬,웤훐ꛃ쫇g뛔쫽뗄떼쫽ꆣ쿳짏쏦쓇퇹,컒쏇쓜릻샻폃g쫇뛔쫽낼뗄헢튻쫂쪵,뿉틔췆돶죧맻mL-P<0,쓇쎴hꇥ12(B,mL)>0,늢쟒퓚쇬춷헟뫍ힷ쯦헟탐뚯횮볤,맛뗣뇤폫웤탐캪쫇쿠튻훂뗄ꆣ쇭튻랽쏦,떱mL-P>0쪱ꛃ,(-<B)뻍뇘탫쫇돤럖캪뢺뗄ꆣ쳘뇰뗘,컒쏇뾼싇헽첬럖늼뗄쟩탎,ힷ쯦헟킧폃몯쫽쫇횸쫽뗄탎쪽,헢쪱hꇥ12(B,mL)뗄럻뫅뿉틔좷쟐뗘뇭쪾캪1+B<(B<ꛔL-mL+p)(24)ꆡꆡ폫횮쿠튻훂뗄쳵볾쫇ꋱ죧맻PꇝmL,믲헟ꋲ퓚P<mL쪱,B뗄쳵볾쫇쿔좻뗄(뮹쫇튻룶닎쫽)ꆣꆡ볲떥쒣탍볙짨ힷ쯦헟뻟폐쿠춬뗄탄샭쯘훊,뛸쇬춷헟뗄춶탐캪쒣탍죧짏,춬쪱쇬춷헟틔킧폃몯쫽ꛔ(x)=-exp(<X)살뷸탐뻶닟ꆣ샻폃헢킩볙짨쳵볾,쿳짏쏦()훐쓇퇹,닉폃쿟탔뇭쪾뗄뻶닟풭퓲ꆣ컒쏇뾼싇,ힷ쯦헟뛔막욱풤웚볛횵뗄뾴램쫇평쯻놾죋뗄맛뗣mL뫍쇬춷헟뛔막욱풤웚볛횵뗄맛뗣횮ퟩ뫏뛸탎돉뗄:' 1994-2014 China Academic Journal Electronic Publishing House. All rights reserved.
뗚2웚ꆡꆡꆡꆡꆡꆡꆡꆡꆡꆡꆡꆡꆡ췵훒폱:뷰죚쫐뎡듓훚탐캪뗄쫽샭쒣탍ꆤ55ꆤm=(1-z)mF+zmL(25)웤훐,z쫇쇬춷헟뛔ힷ쯦헟뗄펰쿬돌뛈,믲헟쮵쫇쇬춷헟뗄뿉탅돌뛈ꆣ죧맻ힷ쯦헟횪뗀mL,헢쪱쯻뗄뻶닟훁짙뿉틔뷼쯆뗘쫇B^=ꆲ(1-z)mL+zmL-Pꆳ/(<ꛔF)(26)웤훐ꛔF쫇ힷ쯦헟죏캪막욱헦쪵볛횵쯹뻟폐뗄룅싊럖늼뗄랽닮ꆣ좻뛸,쪵볊짏볙뚨ힷ쯦헟횪뗀mL,헢훖쟩뿶늻첫쿖쪵ꆣ뿉쫇,튻룶뷏뫃뗄쿫램쫇볙짨ힷ쯦헟훁짙쓜맛달떽쇬춷헟뗄뻶닟,튲뻍쫇A^=(mL)/ꛋꛔF폃짏쪽훐뗄mL듺쳦(26)훐뗄mL,퓲폐B^=(m-p)/<ꛔF=ꆲ(1-z)mL+z(p+ꛋꛔLA^)-Pꆳ/<ꛔF(27)ꆡꆡ헻샭뗃:B^(1-z)zꛋꛔF=(m)+<ꛔF-p28)F<ꛔA^(Fꆡꆡ퓙샻폃(1-z)/(<ꛔF)=b뫍zꛋꛔL/(<ꛔF)=bꇤ,퓲B^=b(mL-p)+bꇤ^A(29)3ꆡ뷡싛놾컄퓚볙짨막욱쫐뎡횻폐튻훖막욱붻틗쪱,뛔쇬춷헟뫍ힷ쯦헟뗄춶탐캪뷸탐쇋쫽샭쒣탍뗄럖컶뫍쳖싛,쫂쪵짏,컄헂훐뗄퇐뺿랽램뿉틔췆맣떽폐벸훖막욱붻틗뗄쫐뎡훐ꆣ평폚놾컄쯹퓋폃뗄럖컶랽램췪좫샠쯆폚쫽샭뺭볃톧뗄퇐뺿랽램ꆣ쯹틔놾컄뷒쪾돶살뗄뷰죚쫐뎡듓훚춶탐캪쒣탍뛔폚컒쏇죏쪶뷰죚쫐뎡훐믺릹춶헟ꆢ볒ꆢ듳뮧뗄춶탐캪폫즢뮧춶헟뗄춶탐캪횮볤뗄맘쾵,쳡릩쇋튻룶닎뾼뗄뿲볜ꆣ닎뾼컄쿗:\[1\S].,Ontheinpossibilityofinformationallyefficientmarkets\[J\],AmericanEconomieReview,1980,(70):393-408.\[2\]\[M\].,1974.\[3\쇵]놦,헔죰쟥.쯦믺맦뮮폫쒣뫽맦뮮\[M\]쟥.뮪듳톧돶냦짧,1998.\[4\엋]벪톫,헅쮳쏷.뺭볃뻹뫢뗄쫽톧풭샭\[M\]벪.쇖듳톧돶냦짧,(HeilongjiangFinanceCollege,Harbin150028,China)Abstract:,andfurtherintothemathematicalmodeloffollowerꆯsherdbehaviorKeyWords:financialmarket;leader;follower;mathematicalmodel.' 1994-2014 China Academic Journal Electronic Publishing House. All rights reserved.
