ֻ25जֻ3௹࠹࣮,No132008୍3ᄅStatisticM ᇅ؇aቋႪᆟکܿଆაࣜ࠶ᄹӉ*张光南 李军 ଽಸิေ:Ч໓๙ݖႇඋބ༆௮උᆲֹ41۱ݓࡅ1970)2003୍֥૫ϰඔऌ࣮ٳ༅ਔᇅ؇aቋႪᆟکܿଆაࣜ࠶ᄹӉ֥ܱ༢,ဒᆣਔᇅ؇ᇉਈ႕ཙᆟکᆦԛ֥ӁԛིႋބቋႪᆟکܿଆ,Ֆط֝ᇁࣜ࠶ᄹӉҵၳ;ႇඋᆲֹႮႿᇅ؇ᇉਈۚႿ༆௮උᆲֹ,֤ఃቋႪᆟکܿଆބࣜ࠶ᄹӉनۚႿުᆀ,ᆃՖᇅ؇ބᆟکܿଆ֥࢘؇ࢳਔᆲൎݓࡅࣜ࠶ᄹӉҵၳ֥ჰၹbЧ໓֥࣮ॉ੮ਔ႕ཙቋႪᆟکܿଆ֥ᇅ؇ၹ,ѩႨൌᆣࢲݔᆦӻਔ୶ථิԛ֥ሷᇶݓᇅ؇႕ཙᆲֹᆟҦ֥ંbܱՍ:ᇅ؇;ᆟک;ᄹӉᇏٳোݼ:C812 ໓ངѓ്:A ໓ᅣщݼ:1002-4565(2008)03-0035-07Institutions,OptimalGovernmentSizeandEconomicGrowthZhangGuangnan&LiJunAbstract:Therelationshipbetweeninstitutionalinfrastructure,,thispaperintegratesEFWindexwhichsubstitutesfortheoverallinstitutionalinfrastructureofaneconomy,:Institutions;Government;EconomicGrowthགྷ,ႇඋᆲݓࡅބ༆௮උᆲݓࡅºᇅ؇թᄝૼ 一a引言ྍᇅ؇ࣜ࠶࿐ࡅಪູᇅ؇¹ᆦሢ܄ᇙࠣದཁҵၳ,ၹՎࡼሷᇶݓቔູٳᇅ؇֥սэਈ,ॖ֥ྛၛх૧ᇅ؇ۀ෮Їݣ֥۲۱ၹ֥ษં,ࢳथਔ,ູՖط႕ཙሧჷᇂི֥ੱ,֝ᇁࣜ࠶ི֥ࠛҵၳbN[1]orthބThomas(1973)აN[2]ႮႿᇅ؇ޙਈᆷѓ҂ႄఏ֥ࢲݔҵၳborth(1981)๙ݖൎٳ༅ંᆣਔᇅ؇эథؓࣜ࠶ᄹӉ֥थקቔࣜ࠶ᄹӉંᇏ[5],ၛBarro(1990)ູսі֥࿐ႨbG[3]ᆀ࣮ਔᆟکᆦԛაࣜ࠶ᄹӉ֥ܱ༢bBarroϜ܄reif(1994)๙ݖֹᇏݚֹઔ۬҃(Maghr-ibi)ބಣପ(Genoa)֥ݚຓસၞ֥ൎᇅ؇ٳ༅܋҆ႄೆऎႵܿଆБԏ҂э/֥AK0ളӁݦඔᇏ,࣮ᇅ؇აࣜ࠶ᄹӉ֥ܱ༢b[4]Scully(1988)ٳ༅ਔࡹ৫ਔ၂۱ၛᆟکᆦԛູᇏྏ֥ଽളᄹӉଆbᄝ115۱ݓࡅᄝ1960)1980୍֥ࣜ࠶ඔऌ,ࢲݔіૼՎࠎԤഈ,གྷႵ໓ངࣉ၂҄ဒਔҍᆟᆦԛaᆟکܿ,ᆟᇍष٢aمੰࡲಆaऎႵૼ༉Ӂಃၛࠣ๙ݖ൧ӆଆࠇ܄܋ҍᆟაࣜ࠶ᄹӉᆭࡗ֥ܱ༢(Hall&Jones,[6,7]ᇂሧჷ֥ݓࡅൌ࠽ದनGDP֥ᄹӉੱູ2173%1997;Barro&Sala-I-Martin,1995)b,طᇅ؇ၹࢠҵ֥ݓࡅᄹӉੱູ0191%bෙಖᇅ؇ࣜ࠶࿐ࡅ၂ᇁಪູᇅ؇႕ཙࣜ࠶ᄹ *Ч໓ࠆݓࡅ࿐ࠎࣁ(ࣁԛ[2007]3020ݼ)ሧᇹbӉ¹ North(1991[10])ಪູ,ᇅ؇൞Ⴎದোഡ࠹֥Ⴈၛνஆᆟᇍa,൞,ႮႿؓᇅ؇ۀ֥ࢳބႋႨ҂,ᄝൌ࠽࣮ᇏؓႿೂޅٳ҂֥ᇅ؇ѩીႵ၂֥ѓࣜ࠶აഠ߶ࢌສ֥ჿඏbૌႮ٤ᆞൔ֥ჿඏ(ᇅҊa࠼߹a༝aԮሙބקਈ֥ᆟҦսэਈ,֝ᇁم֤֞ॖбࢠ֥aྛູሙᄵ)ބᆞൔ֥ܿᄵ(ᅣӱaمੰaҍӁ෮Ⴕಃ)ቆӮbº Ч໓෮ᆷ/ᆲݓࡅ0ࠇ/ᆲֹ0,іൕᄻႵᆲൎ֥ࢲંbطЧ໓๙ݖൗࢸࣜ࠶ሱႮᆷඔ(EFW)бࢠؿݓࡅb
#3 6#࠹࣮2008୍3ᄅ ෙಖࣜ࠶࿐ࡅಪᆟکᆦԛؓࣜ࠶ᄹӉ֥႕ཙ఼ᇅބ௺ௌ֩൭؍ࠆ౼҂උႿૌ֥ҍӁ,ପહᆃᇗေྟ,طᆣૼਔթᄝ၂۱ቋႪᆟکܿଆ¹,൞ུᇅ؇ބᆟҦࣼაࣜ࠶ሱႮཌྷ၂ᇁbمੰνஆႭఃཌྷܱׅࣜ໓ང(Barro,1990;K[8,9]arras,1993,1996)ᇗေ:֒ᆟک๙ݖิ܂مੰࢲܒބمੰൌീุᇅطીႵॉ੮ᇅ؇֥႕ཙbKarras(1993,1996)֥࣮ᆺၛݸொฎ֥ٚൔটЌ෮ႵᆀӁಃބ఼ᇅކֹ໊֥ؓᇂࠇᆀ൬ೆඣؓݓࡅࣉྛٳো,طޭൌീა੫ྛ,Վൈᆟک՜ࣉਔࣜ࠶ሱႮbਔᇅ؇๙ݖᆟکི֥ੱط႕ཙࣜ࠶֥ၹbପહ,۴ऌၛഈࢳ,EFWᆷඔॖၛቔູᇅ؇ᇉਈ֥ႋھೂޅ࠹ෘ҂ᇅ؇่ࡱ༯ቋႪᆟکܿଆ?҂սэਈbหљ൞ఃᇏ/֥مੰࢲܒބӁಃЌ0ބ֥ᇅ؇่ࡱ༯ᆟکᆦԛؓࣜ࠶֥႕ཙႵޅ҂?/ؓྐվ,স৯ބഅြ֥ܵᇅ0ᆷѓ,۷൞ᆰࢤսіЧ໓ၛKarras(1993,1996)֥ൌᆣଆູࠎԤ,ਔᇅ؇ᇏ֥مੰЌቔႨބᆟک֥ᆟҦᇅ؇ߌb๙ݖοሷᇶݓٳ۲ᇕো֥41۱ݓࡅ1970)൙ൌഈ,ၘႵ໓ངၛՎቔູᇅ؇ᇉਈ֥սэਈ2003୍֥૫ϰඔऌ࣮ဒᆣਔ҂֥ᇅ؇่ࡱ༯(Dawson,JohnW[12]1,1998)bᆟکᆦԛؓࣜ࠶֥܊ངބቋႪᆟکܿଆ֥љ,ࢳЧ໓οᅶၛ༯ѓሙ࿊౼ݓࡅඔऌ:ֻ၂,Ⴕႇඋथਔᇅ؇ࣜ࠶࿐௴ђթᄝ֥ႮႿᇅ؇ۀၛקਈބ༆௮උᆲൎ֥ݓࡅ;ֻؽ,ೂݔଖ۱ݓࡅᄻႵ֥ჰၹႄఏ֥ࢲં༂ҵ֩གྷའ,ൈ္क़ڛਔགྷႵ҂ᆸ၂۱ᆲሷᇶݓ,ᄵοᅶቋު၂۱ࠇ႕ཙቋնܱႿᆟکᆦԛ࣮ᇏᇅ؇ၹ֥၌໙ีb֥ሷᇶݓቔ߃ٳѓሙ;ֻ,࣐ਈ࿊౼ᆲൎᆚၰЧ໓ఃჅ҆ٳνஆೂ༯:ֻؽ҆ٳႇඋބ༆௮උࢠཬ,ᆲᆟҦࢠູ໗ק֥ݓࡅbၹՎ,Ч໓෮ᆷ֥ᆲֹ֥ᇅ؇бࢠ,๙ݖൗࢸࣜ࠶ሱႮᆷඔ(EFW)бᆲݓࡅٳљЇওႇඋᆲֹ31۱ݓࡅ,༆௮උᆲࢠႇඋᆲݓࡅބ༆௮උᆲݓࡅᇅ؇ҵၳ,ࡼሷᇶݓቔູٳᇅ؇֥սэਈ;ֻ҆ٳൌᆣଆֹ10۱ݓࡅbაඔऌඪૼ۴ऌൗࢸࣜ࠶ሱႮᆷඔ(EFW)୍ඔऌᆜ,,ၛKarras(1993,1996)֥ඔބൌᆣଆູࠎԤ,ࡹ৫Їݣᇅ؇ၹ֥ቋႪᆟکܿଆൌᆣႇඋ31۱ᆲֹބ༆௮උ10۱ᆲֹ1970)2004ଆ୍֥EFWሹᆷඔ(SummaryIndex),ၛࠣ෮Їݣ֥;ֻඹ҆ٳႇඋބ༆௮උᆲֹቋႪᆟکܿଆაࣜ࠶ᄹӉ,๙ݖൌᆣࢲݔંᆣᇅ؇aቋႪᆟکܿଆ/مੰࢲܒބӁಃЌ0(LegalStructureandSecurityაࣜ࠶ᄹӉ֥ܱ༢;ֻ҆ٳࢲંbofPropertyRights)ބ/ؓྐվ,স৯ބഅြ֥ܵᇅ0(RegulationofCredit,LaborandBusiness)ᆷѓbEFW 二a英属和西葡属殖民地的制度比较ᆷඔٚ૫,ႇඋᆲֹն҆ٳ୍ٺۚႿ༆௮උ;/م ႇݓބ༆ϫ௮ฤં൞ሷ࢝ྐဟaمੰุੰࢲܒބӁಃЌ0ᆷѓٚ૫,ႇඋᆲֹ෮Ⴕ୍ٺ༢,ߎ൞ᆟᇍᇅ؇թᄝཁᇷҵၳbᆃᇕҵၳႮႿۚႿ༆௮උ;/ؓྐվ,স৯ބഅြ֥ܵᇅ0ᆷѓٚૌ֥ᆲൎႄఏᄝ۲ሱ෮උ֥ᆲֹྙӮ҂૫,ႇඋᆲֹࠫެ෮Ⴕ୍ٺۚႿ༆௮උ(ᆺႵ֥ᇍٚൔbႮႿਫ਼ࣥ၇ঠ֥ჰၹ,ࠧᆃུᆲ1975୍ႇඋᆲֹ֮Ⴟ༆௮උᆲ)ֹbֹ৫ᆭ,ުᆃᇕҵၳಯಖթᄝbႮՎॖ,ႇඋބ༆௮උᆲֹᇅ؇թᄝཁᇷЧ໓ҐႨൗࢸࣜ࠶ሱႮᆷඔ(EFW)ޙਈႇඋބҵၳ,ႇඋᆲֹᇅ؇ᇉਈۚႿ༆௮උᆲֹᇅ؇༆௮උᆲֹ҂֥ᇅ؇ᇉਈbູਔඪૼEFWᆷᇉਈ,ॖοሷᇶݓѓሙؓ۲۱ݓࡅࣉྛٳো࣮bඔିܔսіᇅ؇ᇉਈ,ႵсေؓھᆷඔࣉྛࢳbNorth(1991)ಪູ,ᄝൎ֥Ӊފᇏದૌၘࣜഡൗࢸࣜ࠶ሱႮᆷඔႨ۱ᇶေਵთቆӮEFW:࠹ԛ۲ᇕ۲ဢ֥ᇅ؇ၛࡹ৫ᇇѩࢆ֮ࢌၞᇏ֥҂(1)ᆟکܿଆ:܄܋ᆦԛ,ඥ൬ބ܄܋ఒြ;(2)مੰಒקྟb൞,ႮႿᆟکཋקѩᆳྛࣜ࠶֥Ⴓ༤ܿࢲܒބӁಃЌ;(3)Ⴈ໗ࡲࠊл֥ಃ০;(4)ؓຓᄵ,ն؟ඔ౦ঃ༯ᇅ؇൞๙ݖᆟکൌീط႕ཙࣜ࠶સၞ֥ሱႮ؇;(5)ؓྐվaস৯ބഅြ֥ܵᇅbᆞೂࠛ(ིNorth,1981),෮ၛᆰࢤ႕ཙࣜ࠶ི֥ࠛສສ൞Gwartney,J1,Lawson,ᆟکbBarro(1990)ಪູ,ᆟک֥ളӁྟᆦԛ္൞ఒ[11](2006)ᆷԛ,ࣜ࠶ሱႮ֥ܱܒӮေ൞۱ದ࿊ᄴ,ሱ჻ࢌߐ,ࣩᆚሱႮၛࠣದദބҍӁಃ০֥Ќbೂݔᇅ؇ބᆟҦିܔູሱ჻ࢌߐิ܂¹ޙਈᆟکܿଆ֥ᆷѓ၂ϮႵྛᆟࠏܒ֥ܿଆa܄ༀჴದඔ,ିބᆟکᆦԛᅝGDP֥бᇗbЧ໓ҐႨ໓ངᇏ௴ђҐႨ֥ᆟکᆦԛܔЌದദބҍӁಃ০,ః૧൳ٕᆀ০ႨВ৯,ᅝGDP֥бᇗb
ֻ25जֻ3௹ᅦܻଲ फ:ᇅ؇aቋႪᆟکܿଆაࣜ࠶ᄹӉ#3 7# ြ֥၂ᇕሧЧ,ႮႿᆟکิ܂֥܄܋Ӂ(ളӁྟܙ࠹C֥၂ᇕٚم൞ؓٚӱ֝,эӮᆦԛࠃ)ؓದӌഅऎႵޓ఼֥ຓ҆,ྟ෮ၛᆟکY^A^֥ളӁྟᆦԛॖၛЌᆣሧЧ֥ш࠽൬ၭ҂ཟႿ=+AN^YAN+MPKK^+Cg^(4)YgਬᆃAaMPKބCູրܙҕඔb,ᆟک൞ࣜ࠶ᄹӉ֥थק৯ਈb෮ၛЧ໓๙ݖ࣮ႇඋބ༆௮උᆲֹቋႪᆟکᆦԛٳ༅ਆᇕ۴ऌၛഈඔٳ༅,Ч໓ഡקᆟکڛༀш࠽Ӂሷᇶݓ่ࡱ༯۲ֹᇅ؇ؓࣜ࠶֥႕ཙbԛބቋႪᆟکܿଆ֥ൌᆣଆೂ༯:Y^it=C+GYi+AN^itN+MK^PKit+MPG 三a实证模型与数据说明ititYitЧ໓֥ൌᆣଆࡹ৫ᄝKarras(1993,1996)ٚg^itNitمࠎԤഈ,ॉ੮ሷᇶݓᇅ؇ؓᆟکܿଆ֥႕ཙbࡌY+Lit(5)itഡࣜ࠶Ӂԛݦඔ:ູY^itit=C+Gi+AN^it+Lit(6)YitN+MK^PK+Cg^itYitYitgitt=AtF(Kt,Nt,GtPNt)(1)ఃᇏ,A൞ඌඣᆷඔ,Y൞ൌ࠽Ӂԛ,K൞ႮႿ൞ॴݓඔऌ,ݓࡅࡗၹູЧݓหׄթᄝ۱௹Ԛุҵၳ,߶ؓൌᆣࢲݔᄯӮ႕ཙb෮ၛ,Ч໓Ԛ҄ॉ(ದބ܄܋)ሹሧЧթਈ,N൞ࣼြඔਈ,G൞ᆟکཨٮbѩࡌഡF҂ෛൈࡗэ߄৵࿃ਆ੮ଆྙൔ൞ջ۱ุܥקིႋ֥૫ϰඔऌଆ,Giࢨॖັіൕ۱ุ֥ܥקིႋb,Fi>0,Fit<0,i=1,2,3bᆟکཨٮࡌഡؓളӁႵᆞིႋଆྙൔ൞ڎЇݣ۱ุ֥ܥקིႋಯླႮऎ(F3>0),ၹູᆟکᆦԛЇওඳمุ༢aݓٝaཨٝაᇍνބࠎԤഡീุ֥Fဒथק,ೂࢤ൳ჰࡌഡᄵଆྙൔູPure,ᄝଖᇕӱ؇ഈ္֤Ӂಃ۷Ⴕི,ੱ෮ၛႵᆞ֥ш࠽ӁԛbPooledଆ;ೂऋधჰࡌഡ,ᄵᆣૼႵ۱ุིႋ,ࡼٚӱؓൈࡗ֝ުԢYߎླေࣉ၂҄๙ݖHausmanဒ؎۱ุࢩएཛ൞,֤ܥקིႋߎ൞ෛࠏིႋbቋᇔ֥ଆྙൔր݂߭ࢲY^A^=+AN^YAN+MPKK^g^N+MPG(2)YYݔဒbఃᇏ,g=GPN,րܙ༢ඔٳљ൞:ࣼြӁԛྟA=ఃэਈٚ૫,ФࢳэਈY^itіൕiݓֻt୍Yit(5FP5N)NPY,ሧЧш࠽ӁԛMPK=5FP5K,ᆟکڛༀ֥ш࠽ӁԛMPG=5FP5Gbٚӱ֥ൌᆣࢲݔॖ֥GDPᄹӉੱ;ࢳэਈN^itNіൕiݓֻt୍֥সၛဒit/ᆟکڛༀ൞ڎႵӁԛ܊ང0֥ࡌഡ:H৯ᄹӉੱ,۴ऌඔ܄ൔ,րܙ༢ඔAູࣼြӁԛ0:MPG=0,GીႵӁԛ܊ངྟ,ᄝః่ࡱཌྷ่֥ࡱ༯,ࣼြᄹӉੱᄀն,H1:MPG>0,GႵӁԛ܊ང۴ऌBarroمᄵ,ቋႪᆟکཨٮG֥ิ܂ေӁԛᄹӉੱᄀն,ყ௹ࣼြӁԛྟAູᆞK^it;іYitMPG=1(Barro,1990)bᆃ۱مᄵՖᆰܴഈ,ु֒1ൕiݓֻt୍֥ྍᄹሧЧᅝGDP֥бᇗ,րܙ༢ඔֆ໊֥ᆟکཨٮӁԛېݺᄹࡆ1ֆ໊ൈ,ᆟکڛMPKູሧЧш࠽Ӂԛ,ყ௹ሧЧш࠽Ӂԛູᆞbༀ֥ิ܂൞ቋႪ֥;ೂݔӁԛ֥ᄹࡆ؟Ⴟ(ഒႿ)1g^itNitֆ໊іൕiݓֻt୍֥ྍᄹದनᆟکᆦԛэ߄ਈა,ᆟکڛༀิ܂҂ܔ(ݖ؟¹)bऌՎ,ૌିYitဒᆟکڛༀิ܂൞ڎቋႪ:স৯ᆭࠒᅝGDP֥бᇗ,րܙ༢ඔMPGູᆟکH0:MPG=1,GູቋႪڛༀ֥ш࠽Ӂԛ,ٚӱ֥ൌᆣࢲݔॖၛဒ/ᆟکڛH1:MPG<1,Gܿଆݖնༀ൞ڎႵӁԛ܊ང0֥ࡌഡ:ႵӁԛ܊ང,ᄵMPGHູᆞ,ીႵӁԛ܊ང,ᄵMPGູਬbՎຓ္ॖ2:MPG>1,Gܿଆݖཬᆃ۱ંॿࡏ္ିԛቋႪᆟکܿଆbMPG=CPs,ఃᇏC=(5FP5G¹Ka]rras(1997[13)ᄝؓBarroمᄵྩᆞ֥ࠎԤഈᆣૼਔ۷၂)GPY൞G֥Ӂԛ,ྟطϮ֥ሑঃ,ࡼದཨٮބᆟکཨٮࣉೆളӁݦඔ,ᆃൈMPG=1Ӯູs=GPY൞Ӂԛᇏ֥ᆟکܿଆб২bႨ*іൕቋႪᆴ,ᄝMPG*=1ၩሢቋႪᆟکܿଆູቋႪᆟکཨٮш࠽ӁԛMPG*֥ഈཋ,طBarroمᄵӮູ၂۱ห২b:֒ࡌഡᆟکڛༀބದཨٮཌྷбᄝཨٮᆀིႨᇏ෮ᅝ֥б২ཌྷؓࢠ*s=C(3)ཬൈ,ቋႪᆟکཨٮш࠽ӁԛMPG*ࢤ࣍֩Ⴟ1b
#3 8#࠹࣮2008୍3ᄅ ဒ/ᆟکܿଆ൞ڎቋႪ0,ቋႪ,ᄵMPGູ1,ᆟဒ֥ᆴնႿޘࢩ૫ܥקིႋ֥Fဒ5%ཁᇷඣکܿଆݖն,ᄵႮႿܿଆБԏ־ࡨMPGཬႿ1,ّ֥ਢࢸᆴ,ࠧ310249>114707,ၹՎٚӱၛ5%֥ᆭཁᇷඣऋधਔ۲ݓࢩएཌྷ֥֩ჰࡌഡ,҂ିႨ,ᄵնႿ1bg^itіൕiݓֻt୍֥ದनᆟکᆦԛᄹgitPurePooledྙൔܙ࠹,طླေႨ૫ϰଆܙ࠹bӉ,ੱրܙ༢ඔC֥ᆴູࠧ෮ቋႪᆟکܿଆ,ູਔࣉ၂҄ဒླေܥקིႋߎ൞ෛིࠧႋ֥ંഈቋႪᆟکܿଆ౼ᆴٓຶູ[0,1];Litіൕҗҵbޘࢩ૫૫ϰଆ,ࣉྛHausmanTest,वٚᆴ2VնႿЧ໓ଢ֥ᄝႿൌᆣဒႇඋᆲֹބ༆௮උᆲֹਢࢸᆴ,ࠧ818043>718147,ऋधෛࠏིႋ֥ჰࡌ/ᆟکڛༀ֥ш࠽ӁԛMPG0ބ/ቋႪᆟکܿଆC0ഡ,ၹՎЧ໓Ⴈ۱ุܥุིႋ֥૫ϰଆܙ࠹Վ֥ٚљ,ٳљႨٚӱ(5)ဒᆣႇඋᆲֹބ༆௮උᆲӱb/ֹᆟکڛༀ֥ш࠽ӁԛMPG0,Ⴈٚӱ(6)ဒᆣႮႿݓࡅࡗ၂Ϯթᄝࢠն۱ุҵၳ,ູՎࣉྛႇඋᆲֹބ༆௮උᆲ/ֹቋႪᆟکܿଆC0bޘࢩ૫ၳٚҵLmဒ,वٚᆴ2VჹնႿਢࢸᆴ,ႮႿ҂ౢԣಠཛ֥ࢲܒ,ၹՎᄝ݂߭ٚӱᇏࠧ456015854>4317730,ऋधٚҵ֥ჰࡌഡbᆌીႵᆰࢤഡק,ླေ๙ݖඔऌࢲܒބൌᆣဒ؎bؓၳٚҵ౦ঃ,Ч໓Ⴈޘࢩ૫ಃᇗ(Cross-sectionՖඔऌࢲܒ,ुޘࢩ૫ഈ,۲ݓ֥ҵၳࢠն,ॖି߶Weights)֥GLSٚم,༢ඔླྀٚҵܙ࠹ٚمᄵ൞໗Ⴕቆࡗ֥ၳٚҵ,Ֆཌྷܱ໓ང,ुॴݓඔऌ֥ၳٚҵࡲܙ࠹ᇏ֥߈หޘࢩ૫(WhiteCross-section)ٚمѩ൞௴ђթᄝ;ൈࡗਙഈ,ႮႿҐႨ؟୍ඔऌ,طཌྷ҂טᆜሱႮ؇bᆃᇕ༢ඔླྀٚҵइᆔܙ࠹ٚمܱؓඔऌႻݣႵ൝,ॖିթᄝሱཌྷܱbᆃུႵրቆࡗൈ௹ၳٚҵބൈ௹ཌྷܱ໗ࡲbࣉ၂֥҄ൌᆣဒbႮႿЧ໓࿊౼֥൞۲ݓ֥ൈࡗਙඔऌ,ູ෮ႵඔऌটሱSummers-Hestonඔऌ९(Pennဒ൞ڎթᄝሱཌྷܱ໙ี,ᄝٚӱᇏࡆೆAR(1),ࢲݔW[14]orldTable),ཌྷܱඪૼҕSummers&ၛ1%֥ཁᇷྟඣ๙ݖഡקဒ,ॖթᄝሱཌྷ[15](1991)bປᆜ֥ඔऌЇও188۱ݓࡅ1950)2004ܱ໙ีb୍֥ཌྷܱඔऌ,۴ऌЧ໓ླေ,࿊౼Summers-Heston і1 ႇඋᆲֹᆟکш࠽Ӂԛ֥ඔऌ९ᇏႇඋᆲֹ31۱ݓࡅބ༆௮උᆲֹ10૫ϰඔऌଆܙ࠹ࢲݔ۱ݓࡅ֥ᆷѓೂ༯:ܙ࠹ٚمPureFixedRandomFixedFixed+hetroದ१րܙҕඔpooledeffecteffect+hetro+AR(1):POP;ᆇൌದनMPK010126-010796**-010202010694**010882***GDP(010242)(010372)(010291)(010291)(010310)(Laspeyres):RGDPL;ᆇൌದनA019415***019143***019291***017620***017157***GDP(Chian):RGDPCH;(010566)(010558)(010554)(010578)(010617)ᆇൌૄ۱স৯नGDP(Chian):RGDPWOKMPG118260***118228***118195***019693***019460***;(010824)(010817)(010810)(011180)(011194)RGDPLᇏᆟکཨٮٺح(%):KGAR011045***(1)(010300)RGDPLᇏሧٺح(%AdjustedR2014015014328014055013867013946):KI۴ऌSummers&HProb(F-statistic)(1991)֥ཌྷܱඪૼ,࠹ޘࢩ૫ܥקིႋ֥Fෘၛ༯۲۱෮ླඔऌ310249Test:HausmanTest(V2)818043ᆇൌݓളӁሹᆴY=RGDPL*POPޘࢩ૫ၳٚҵLmᆴ;499218977ሧЧ(V2)K=RGDPL*POP*KI*0101WaldTest:MF-stat=010000;PG=0Ch-isq=010000স৯L=(RGDPCHPRGDPWOK)*POPWF-stat=016510;aldTest:MPG=1Ch-isq=01650ᆟکᆦԛG=RGDPL*POP*KG*0101D-WStat117230118563117091117999210081ႮႿඔऌ֥ॖࠆ֤ྟބޙྟॉ੮,Ч໓࿊౼Observations10231023102310231023 ᇿ:ওݼଽ൞ѓሙ༂*;a**a***ٳљіൕ10%a5%a1%֥ཁᇷྟ1970)2003୍ඔऌࣉྛ࠹ෘbඣbܙ࠹۽ऎ:Eviews510bၛ༯b 四a最优政府规模与经济增长Ⴈٚӱ(5)ؓ༆௮උᆲֹඔऌࣉྛ݂߭bൌ(၂)ܙ࠹ٚمഡקᆣࢲݔіૼ,Ⴎ۱ุҵၳ֥ཁᇷྟဒؿགྷ,FဒႨٚӱ(5)ؓႇඋᆲֹඔऌࣉྛ݂߭bൌᆣ֥ᆴնႿޘࢩ૫ܥקིႋ֥Fဒ5%ཁᇷඣ֥ࢲݔೂі1෮ൕ,Ⴎ۱ุҵၳ֥ཁᇷྟဒؿགྷ,Fਢࢸᆴ,ࠧ214534>119095,ၹՎٚӱၛ5%֥ཁᇷ
ֻ25जֻ3௹ᅦܻଲ फ:ᇅ؇aቋႪᆟکܿଆაࣜ࠶ᄹӉ#3 9# ඣऋधਔ۲ݓࢩएཌྷ֥֩ჰࡌഡ,҂ିႨPure і2 ႇඋᆲֹቋႪᆟکܿଆ֥Pooledྙൔܙ࠹,طླေႨ૫ϰଆܙ࠹b૫ϰඔऌଆܙ࠹ࢲݔູਔࣉ၂҄ဒླေܥקིႋߎ൞ෛིࠧႋ֥ܙ࠹ٚمPureFixedRandomFixedFixed+hetroޘࢩ૫૫ϰଆ,ࣉྛHրܙҕඔpooledeffecteffect+hetro+AR(1)ausmanTest,वٚᆴ2VཬႿਢࢸᆴM010025-010651-010115PK010829***011004***(010260)(010402)(010293)(010311)(010360),ࠧ318287<718147,مऋधෛࠏིႋ֥ჰࡌഡ,ၹՎЧ໓ुটေႨ۱ุෛࠏིႋ֥૫ϰଆA017221***016977***017149***016420***016022***(010584)(010584)(010578)(010530)(010509)ܙ࠹ٚӱbMPG014465***014368***014422***012056***012004***ᆃᆴ֤ᇿၩ֥൞(010251,۴ऌ༵ဒᆩ്Ⴕԉٳ֥)(010252)(010249)(010243)(010256)ႮཌྷAR011055***(1)(010312),ྐૄ۱ݓࡅऎႵ႕ཙࣜ࠶֥ሱദၹࠇ၌эਈ,෮ၛݓࡅᆭࡗऎႵ۱ุܥקིႋbطܥAdjustedR2013159013365013134013969014002קིႋބෛࠏིႋ֤ԛ֥ࢲݔ٤ӈࢤ࣍Prob(F-statistic)010000010000010000010000010000,ၹՎѩ҂႕ཙЧ໓֥ษંbࢲކၛഈႮ,ѩູਔაႇඋᆲޘࢩ૫ܥקིႋ֥F212037Testֹൌᆣٚӱٚьбࢠ,Ч໓ҐႨ۱ุܥקིႋܙHausmanTest(V2)910630࠹ٚӱbޘࢩ૫ၳٚҵLmႮႿݓࡅࡗ၂Ϯթᄝࢠն۱ุҵၳ,ູՎࣉྛᆴ544519272(V2)ޘࢩ૫ၳٚҵLmဒ,वٚᆴ2VჹնႿਢࢸᆴD-WStat116212117080116140118004210032,Observations10231023102310231023ࠧ4711854>1619190,ऋधٚҵ֥ჰࡌഡbᆌؓ і3 ༆௮උᆲֹቋႪᆟکܿଆ֥ၳٚҵ౦ঃ,Ч໓Ⴈޘࢩ૫ಃᇗ(Cross-section૫ϰඔऌଆܙ࠹ࢲݔWeights)֥GLSٚم,༢ඔླྀٚҵܙ࠹ٚمᄵ൞໗ܙ࠹ٚمPureFixedRandomFixedFixed+hetroࡲܙ࠹ᇏ֥߈หޘࢩ૫(WhiteCross-section)ٚمѩրܙҕඔpooledeffecteffect+hetro+AR(1)҂טᆜሱႮ؇bMPK011133***011963***011291***011758***012166***(010396)(010581)(010436)(010467)(010709)ູဒ൞ڎթᄝሱཌྷܱ໙,ีᄝٚӱᇏࡆೆARA016876***017377**016942***019932***110575***(012319)(013447)(012558)(012962)(013722)(1),ࢲݔၛ1%֥ཁᇷྟඣ๙ݖഡקဒ,ॖ*թᄝሱཌྷܱ໙ีbMPG013040***012726**012960***012461***011866***(010337)(010360)(010341)(010405)(010374)ٚӱAR013607***(1)(6)ؓႇඋބ༆௮උᆲֹ֥݂߭ݖӱა(010694)ٚӱAdjustedR2012390012533012300013450014353(5)োර:ٚӱProb(F-statistic)010000010000010000010000(6)ؓႇඋᆲֹඔऌ݂֥߭ٚӱᇏ,ൌᆣޘࢩ૫ܥקིႋ֥ࢲݔೂі2෮ൕ,Ⴎ۱ุҵၳ֥ཁᇷྟဒ(FF014981TestဒHausmanTest(V2)41599)ؿགྷ,ླေႨ૫ϰଆܙ࠹;ࣉྛHausmanTestؿགྷླေႨ۱ุܥקིႋ֥૫ϰଆܙ࠹ޘࢩ૫ၳٚҵLm;ࣉྛޘࢩ૫ၳٚҵᆴ5210718(V2)Lmဒ,ऋधٚҵ֥ჰࡌഡbᆌؓD-WStat114894115239114787113897119310ၳٚҵ౦ঃObservations330330330330330,Ч໓Ⴈޘࢩ૫ಃᇗ֥GLSٚم,༢ඔླྀٚҵܙ࠹ٚمᄵ൞໗ࡲܙ࠹ᇏ֥߈หޘࢩ૫ٚ (ؽ)ܙ࠹ࢲݔࠣఃษંمѩ҂טᆜሱႮ؇b๙ݖᄝٚӱᇏࡆೆAR(1),ႇඋᆲֹᆟکڛༀ֥ш࠽ӁԛMPGູဒؿགྷթᄝሱཌྷܱ໙ีb019460,ۚႿ༆௮උᆲֹᆟکш࠽Ӂԛ019247;۴ ٚӱ(6)ؓ༆௮උᆲֹඔऌ݂֥߭ൌᆣࢲݔऌ༢ඔWaldTest,ႇඋބ༆௮උᆲֹᆟکٚӱೂі3෮ൕ,ࣜݖ۲ᇕဒ,აႨٚӱ(5)ؓ༆௮උऋधMPG=0֥ჰࡌഡ,іૼᆟکᆦԛؓਆᇕሷᇶᆲֹ֥݂߭ٚӱഡקჰၹཌྷ,ҐႨ۱ุܥקིݓᇅ؇༯֥ᆲֹႵӁԛ܊ངbႋaޘࢩ૫ಃᇗ֥GLSٚمaջAR(1)֥૫ϰٚӱࣉᆴ఼֤ט֥൞,ႇඋބ༆௮උᆲֹᆟکٚӱྛܙ࠹,༢ඔླྀٚҵܙ࠹ٚمᄵ൞໗ࡲܙ࠹ᇏ֥߈مऋधMPG=1(ࠧ/ൌ࠽ᆟکܿଆ֩ႿቋႪᆟหޘࢩ૫ٚمѩ҂טᆜሱႮ؇bکܿଆ0)֥ჰࡌഡb൙ൌഈ,ႇඋᆲֹᆟکൌ࠽नᆟکܿଆູ20123%,ࢤ࣍і5ᇏٚӱ(6)ؓႇ
#4 0#࠹࣮2008୍3ᄅ උᆲֹൌᆣ֤֥ቋႪᆟکܿଆ20104%;༆௮ڮº,ႮႿႇඋބ௮උᆲֹᇅ؇ҵၳ,֤ᆲඋᆲֹᆟکൌ࠽नᆟکܿଆູ19105%,ࢤ࣍ᇍ༯֥ۖႇᆟکᄝᆟکᆦԛٚ૫бϏ۷ऎႵࡹі3ᇏٚӱ(6)ؓႇඋᆲֹൌᆣ֤֥ቋႪᆟکഡྟbᆃᇕљཁᇷุ֥གྷᄝࠎԤഡീࡹഡഈ:ۖܿଆ18166%bႇᆟکᇗ൪ࠎԤഡീ֥ࡹഡ,Ґ౼֥൞ࡹഡྟᆲႮႿٚӱ(5)ބ(6)֥ၹэਈູࣜ࠶ᄹӉੱ,ၹҦ,ཐۖᆟک๙ݖૄ୍֥ҍᆟᆦԛࡹഡݓ࠽ࠏӆaՎᆟکᆦԛш࠽Ӂԛ֥ҵၳ္֝ᇁࣜ࠶ᄹӉ֥ᇽਫ਼ྩూa܄܋ٜaࠎࡹބࠢልད;ط௮љ:ႮႿᇅ؇ᇉਈࢠ,ۚႇඋᆲֹ֥ᆟکᆦԛؓࣜฤᆲᇍ༯֥ϏҐ౼֥൞٤ࡹഡྟᆲҦ࠶ᄹӉ֥܊ངб༆௮උۚ2112%;ൗࢸ۲ݓбႇඋ,ൌീՖ௮ฤ၍ᆱݖট֥aФNorth(1973)ӫᆭᆲֹۚ6140%,б༆௮උۚ8153%bູ๙ݖ/ሇಞ؎ಃ0ߐ౼ҍᆟ൬ೆ֥ህႏᇅ,҂ࣇؓ۲ᇕܙ࠹ٚم֤ԛ֥ൌᆣࢲݔбࢠؿགྷ,ٚࠎԤഡീࡹഡ֮Ⴟۖႇᆟک,طࡼᆟکᆯିᇏ֥ӱ֥ࢲݔ٤ӈཁᇷ,طրܙҕඔ٤ӈࢤ࣍,Ԛ҄ࠎԤഡീࡹഡۿିሇ၍۳ህႏ܄ඳbህႏ܄ඳ҂ࣇ؎ଆбࢠ໗ࡲbᄜႨॏ-҃֡۬ঘථ(C-D)ളӁေഈ࢚ህႏඥ,ߎေڵᄳ൧ᆟࡹഡaؓຓࢌ๙aഠ߶ݦඔଆؓ۲ളӁေӁԛྟࣉྛܙ࠹bࢲݔೂڞ০൙ြ֩»bೋൖઌݓ࠽ܵ࿐ჽ(IMD)୍і4෮ൕ,ႇඋᆲֹᆟکᆦԛӁԛྟ010486նؿі֥5ಆ౯ࣩᆚ৯୍؇Б6္ۡіૼ,ཐۖ/֥ࠎԤႿ༆௮උᆲֹᆟکᆦԛӁԛྟ010289,ࠧૄᄹഡീ/ᆷѓஆᄝൗࢸభਙ,ჹჹۚႿϏࠎԤഡീ֥ࡆ1%ֆ໊֥ᆟکᆦԛ,ႇඋᆲֹࣜ࠶ᄹӉੱбࡹഡඣbᆃඪૼਔ؇ҵၳ֝ᇁቋႪᆟکᆦԛҵ༆௮උᄹӉੱۚ2%ቐႷ,ࣉ၂҄ဒᆣਔЧ໓ଆၳ,Ֆط္֝ᇁਆֹࣜ࠶ؿᅚඣҵၳb֥໗ࡲྟބࢲݔ֥ॖौྟbᆴ఼֤ט֥൞,ႮႿᆲֹ֥ФᆲބЉཤ֥ і4 ႇඋބ༆௮උᆲֹC-Dݦඔଆܙ࠹ࢲݔൎ,֤ఃᇅ؇ࡹഡሹุط֮Ⴟ৫ֹb۴ဢЧႇඋ༆௮උऌЧ໓֥ൌᆣіૼ,ં൞ႇඋᆲֹߎ൞༆௮උրܙҕඔᆲ,ֹఃᆟکᆦԛш࠽ӁԛބቋႪᆟکܿଆन֮010896***010729EKႿൗࢸनඣbᆃ္Ֆᇅ؇႕ཙᆟکᆦԛш࠽Ӂ(010185)(010506)011307**016465***ELԛՖط႕ཙࣜ࠶ᄹӉ֥࢘؇,ࢳਔൗࢸᆲൎ(010553)(011290)010486***010289**EG(010120)(010138)¹ႇݓದ๙ݖ1842୍5֥ᇏႇଲ่ࣘჿ6a1860୍֥5ᇏႇКAdjustedR2019605017103่ࣘჿ6a1898୍5֥ᇏႇᅚຉཐۖࢸᆶህ่6۱҂่֩ჿ,఼ྛProb(F-statistic)010000010000۩ᅝਔཐۖ;௮ฤᆲᆀᄝ1845୍ֆٚ૫࿆҃Ϗ/ູሱႮۖ0,D-WStat2112901167481933୍௮ฤཉمӫ/Ϗ൞௮ฤᇶಃܵ༪༯֥ਵ0,1955୍,Observations495164௮ฤ࿆҃Ϗ൞֥ݚຓസٺ(ӧᤑ,ݒᆽএ,1997,1999)bºᄝႇݓބ௮ฤᆲᆟکᆭభ,ֹ֒ंᇾ֥൞ದ,႕ཙ 五a结论ֹ֥֒൞ࠎЧཌྷ֥໓߄ุ༢;ۖϏनູཬ֛ࣜ࠶ุ,ીႵሧჷ,ᇅ؇ᇉਈ҂,֝ᇁᆟکᆦԛ֥Ӂԛིႋ҂ື၂ऎႵ֥฿ಖ่ࡱ൞ֹ໊ᇂႪᄀ,ᆲᇍᆭభࣜ࠶ࠎԤ҂,Ֆط႕ཙቋႪᆟکܿଆ,֝ᇁࣜ࠶ᄹӉҵၳbೂݔؿղ(֬ৡब,ᆢ฿བ,2003)b»1962୍Ϗ௮ᆟکაྖু܄ඳר৫8୍ህႏކჿܿק,ᇅ؇ᇉਈࢠ,ۚᄵᆟکᆦԛ֥ш࠽Ӂԛࢠն,Ֆطቋھ܄ඳૄ୍֥࣪০ᇏ,ေႨႿϏ֥Ջ൙ြ;ܓᇂඣၴԯ,ڿႪᆟکܿଆ္ࢠնb۴ऌЧ໓41۱ݓࡅ1970ཐۖaϏࡗ֥ࢌ๙;ູЌӻଽۖӎ๙,ૄ୍ൿरފ֡100ຣ৫ٚb)19825୍ϏྜྷᄎѰґྍم6ੰܿק,ህႏ܄ඳᄝ۳௹ࡗಒЌཐۖ2003୍֥ൗࢸࣜ࠶ሱႮᆷඔ(EFW)ބ૫ϰඔऌ࣮აϏᆭࡗႵק௹ϫՑ֥ॹᄛग़֥ࢌ๙ᄎൻିӎ๙ྛ;ؓൿ๙іૼ,ႇඋᆲֹᇅ؇ཁᇷۚႿ༆௮උᆲֹᇅ؇,ݚഈބۖ१۽ቔቓԛ܊ངb1986୍ϏᆟکაѰґህႏ܄ඳదඇ֤ఃᆟکᆦԛш࠽ӁԛބቋႪᆟکܿଆनۚႿ༆5֥Ѱґህႏྩרކჿ6ᇏܿק,ህႏ܄ඳႵᄳҕაѩሧႿֻؽ௮උᆲֹbႮႿᇅ؇ҵၳ֝ᇁᆟکᆦԛш࠽ӁԛϏၙඣնూ(ࠧႶၱնూ)aϏݓ࠽ࠏӆaྍϏۖग़ᄎaၙඣӬࡹഡ֩նؿᅚ࠹߃,ѩሢ৯ቆࡹࠎࣁ߶ᄡᇹ॓࿐aՋa໓߄aၜҵၳ,ႄఏؓࣜ࠶ᄹӉੱ܊ང֥љ,Ֆط႕ཙࣜ࠶ඌࠃbϏ੪ႳুႵཋ܄ඳϏᆟکదר5֥ህႏކჿ6ܿᄹӉҵၳb൙ൌഈ,ᇏݓཐۖaᇏݓϏఞఞٳљФק,ھህႏ܄ඳߎсྶЌᆣۖϏࡗᇀഒႵ௴๙ԯᆺ(ૄᇛ30ϫ)ႇݓބ௮ฤᆲᇍ¹bෙಖᆲᇍᆭభۖϏބࣴగׇԯ(ૄರ84ϫ),ૄ୍ቋഒ֥ग़ᄎਈູ1000ຣದՑ;ڵᄳൿरݴ֡ࠣ๔ѻ;ࡼԯᆺࢌᆟکԯົྩ;ᇁ৯ႿຓۖแݚࡹഡਆֹऎႵཌྷර֥ದ१หᆘaֹ֒໓߄ࠎԤބሧჷጋ۽ӱ(ӧᤑ,ݒᆽএ,1999)b
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