뗚8웚(ퟜ뗚261웚)닆뺭컊쳢퇐뺿ꆡꆡꆡNumber8(GeneralSerialNo1261)2005쓪8퓂ResearchonFinancialandEconomicIssuesAugust,2005첩샕탍맦퓲뗄퇐뺿컄쿗ퟛ쫶뇥횾듥(쓏뺩듳톧뎤붭죽뷇훞뺭볃짧믡랢햹퇐뺿훐탄,붭쯕ꆡ쓏뺩ꆡ210093)햪ꆡ튪:뷧뚨뺭볃쒣탍훐뗄믵뇒헾닟랴펦몯쫽폐뛠훖랽램ꆣ뷼쓪살,쯦ퟅ첩샕맦퓲믲헟쮵쫇첩샕탍맦퓲뗄쪵볊퓋폃,돶쿖쇋뛔헢튻컊쳢뷸탐퇐뺿뗄듳솿컄쿗ꆣ첩샕맦퓲쯤좻볲떥늢틗폚뿘훆,떫쯼좴쳥쿖쇋믵뇒떱뻖뗷뿘탐캪뗄놾훊ꆣ놾컄뛔폐맘첩샕탍믵뇒헾닟맦퓲쳘헷뗄퇐뺿컄쿗ퟶ쇋튻룶볲튪믘맋,늢뾼달쇋뛔첩샕풭쪽뗄탞헽틔벰퓋폃뫍짨볆첩샕맦퓲뗄샭싛벰쪵횤컊쳢ꆣ맘볼듊:믵뇒헾닟맦퓲;첩샕맦퓲;춨믵엲헍싊훐춼럖샠뫅:F82111ꆡꆡ컄쿗뇪쪶싫:Aꆡꆡ컄헂뇠뫅:10002176X(2005)0820014207뷼쓪살,듳솿뺭볃톧컄쿗쳖싛쇋룷훖룷퇹뗄퓲,틔뇣릫훚벰쪱랢쿖헾닟훆뚨헟욫샫헾닟맦퓲믵뇒헾닟맦퓲,웤훐첩샕맦퓲[1]놻맣랺펦폃폚뫪뗄탐캪ꆣ맛뺭볃쒣탍뗄쪵퇩벰퇐뺿ꆣ첩샕맦퓲볙뚨,믵뇒첩샕(1993)쳡돶뗄볲떥믵뇒맦퓲헽쫔춼쪵떱뻖퓋폃믵뇒헾닟릤뻟캧죆솽듳맘볼쒿뇪몯쫽,쿖헢튻쒿뇪,쯼놻뇭쫶캪벴쪵볊춨믵엲헍싊뫍쒿뇪춨믵엲헍싊횮볤뗄욫샫3i=r+ꛐ+ꛁ(ꛐ-ꛐ3)+ꛂy(111)tttt돌뛈틔벰쪵볊닺돶쮮욽뫍잱퓚닺돶쮮욽횮볤뗄욫웤훐,i뇭쪾쏻틥솪냮믹뷰샻싊3,r뇭쪾뻹뫢샫돌뛈ꆣ쯤좻헢룶맦퓲럇뎣볲떥쟒틗폚닙ퟷ,떫뗄쪵볊솪냮믹뷰샻싊,ꛐt뇭쪾잰쯄룶벾뛈뗄욽뻹죔좻쓜릻듓훐냑컕믵뇒떱뻖헾닟뗷헻뗄놾훊틢춨믵엲헍싊,ꛐ3뇭쪾쒿뇪춨믵엲헍싊,yt뇭쪾쪵춼ꆣ뾼싇떽웤쯻틲쯘뛔믵뇒헾닟킧맻뗄펰쿬,퓧볊GDP욫샫웤쒿뇪쮮욽뗄냙럖뇈ꆣ퓚헢룶뿲볜웚뗄첩샕맦퓲풭쪽틑놻ퟶ쇋듳솿탞룄ꆣ쳖싛첩샕쓚,죧맻쪵볊춨헍싊짏짽떽룟폚웤쒿뇪횵ꛐ3믲맦퓲틔벰웤쯻첩샕탍맦퓲뗄컄쿗럇뎣뛠,놾컄쓢헟떱쪵볊GDP뎬맽웤쒿뇪쮮욽쪱,솪냮믹뷰샻싊뛔헢킩컄쿗ퟷ튻볲튪뗄ퟛ쫶ꆣ뻍믡짏짽ꆣ떱쪵볊춨헍싊뫍GDP뚼뗈폚웤쒿뇪튻ꆢ첩샕맦퓲뗄풭쪽횵쪱,쏻틥솪냮믹뷰샻싊붫뗈폚뻹뫢뗄쪵볊솪냮20쫀볍70쓪듺훐웚,샭탔풤웚룅쓮뗄틽죫믹뷰샻싊3r뫍쒿뇪춨헍싊ꛐ3횮뫍ꆣ캪볲뮯뇭뛔뫪맛뺭볃퇐뺿뫍헾닟붨틩뗄랽쿲벰쮼뾼랽램닺쫶,쏻틥샻싊맦퓲뿉틔훘탂뇭쪾캪:짺쇋룯쏼탔펰쿬ꆣ믹폚뛔쪱볤럇튻훂탔컊쳢뗄뷢i=ꛄ+(1+ꛁ)ꛐ+ꛂy(112)ttt뻶ꋙ,폐죋죏캪맦퓲폅폚쿠믺뻱퓱ꆣ쯻쏇뗄샭평웤훐,ꛄ=3r-ꛁꛐ3ꆣ룹뻝쪵볊샻싊rt=it-쫇쿠믺뻱퓱뗄뷡맻늻쫇튻훂뗄듎폅볆뮮뻍쫇쪹뺭ꛐt,짏쪽뗄뗈볛탎쪽캪:볃쿝죫늻컈뚨뗄ힴ첬ꆣ믹폚헢킩샭싛붨틩,맘볼r=ꛄ+ꛁꛐ+ꛂy(113)ttt퓚폚죧뫎헒떽튻룶볈볲떥폖죝틗샭뷢뗄뿉닙ퟷ맦첩샕붫헢튻맦퓲훐뗄쒿뇪춨헍싊ꛐ3뫍뻹뫢ꋙ평폚Kydland&Prescott(1977)뛔헢튻컊쳢뗄춻돶릱쿗,쯻쏇믱뗃쇋2004쓪뛈억놴뛻뺭볃톧붱ꆣ쫕룥죕웚:2005205208ퟷ헟볲뷩:뇥횾듥(1975-),쓐,붭쯕룟폊죋,늩쪿퇐뺿짺ꆣ' 1994-2008 China Academic Journal Electronic Publishing House. All rights reserved.
첩샕탍맦퓲뗄퇐뺿컄쿗ퟛ쫶15샻싊3r뚼짨캪2,늢짨ꛁ=ꛂ=015,퓋폃헢킩쫽횵쿂뗄붨틩샻싊쮮욽(벴볙짨솪뒢퓚ퟱ톭첩샕맦퓲퇐뺿랢쿖,헢튻맦퓲폫솪냮믹뷰샻싊뗄쪵볊퓋탐쟩뿶쿂뗄솪냮믹뷰샻싊),늻춬랽램뗃떽뗄샻싊맬벣쓢뫏뗃뫜뫃ꆣ쮮욽쏷쿔늻춬,듓ퟮ킡쿠닮016룶냙럖뗣떽ퟮ듳쪽(113)훐뗄닎쫽횵랴펦쇋믵뇒떱뻖뗄욫쿠닮318룶냙럖뗣ꆣ뮹튪힢틢헢킩뷡맻뚼쫇퓚춨뫃,ꛁ>0쫇컈뚨뺭볃뗄쳵볾ꆣ뫜쏷쿔,볙죧ꛁ<믵엲헍싊뫍닺돶쮮욽룸뚨뗄믹뒡짏뷸탐뗄,늢쎻0,춨믵엲헍싊뗄짏짽붫떼훂쪵볊샻싊뗄쿂붵,늢폐뾼싇샻싊뗄랴삡킧펦ꆣ믡듌벤닺돶퓶볓ꆣ헢튲뇭쏷쪽(112)쯹쏨쫶뗄쏻(뛾)잱퓚닺돶뗄닢쯣틥샻싊맦퓲훐뗄춨헍쾵쫽뇘탫듳폚1닅쓜놣돖뺭퓚릤뻟맦퓲훐펦냼삨닺돶좱뿚,헢튻뗣틑뺭볃뗄컈뚨ꆣ뺡맜첩샕붫닎쫽ꛁ뫍ꛂ뗄횵(뚼짨캪놻뫜뛠횤뻝쯹횤쪵ꆣ튻훖뷏캪웕뇩뗄맛뗣쫇닺돶015)ퟷ캪튻룶뫏샭뗄믹ힼ뗣,떫쫇헢킩닎쫽뗄ퟮ좱뿚듺뇭쇋믵뇒헾닟훆뚨헟컈뚨닺돶뗄쒿뇪,쇭병횵ퟮ훕뚼쫇평쒣탍뷡릹놾짭쯹뻶뚨뗄ꆣ췢튻늿럖죋퓲붫닺돶좱뿚쫓캪뛔캴살풤웚춨헍쮮뛾ꆢ첩샕탍맦퓲뗄쪵횤컊쳢욽뗄듺쳦횸뇪ꆣF[3]avero뫍Rovelli뛔듋맛뗣ퟶ쇋볌첩샕횮뫳,탭뛠톧헟뛔첩샕맦퓲벰룃맦퓲뺭퇩럖컶늢쳡릩쇋횤뻝ꆣLevin뗈죋[4]퓋폃듋싛뗄뇤탎(쿂컄돆캪첩샕탍맦퓲)뷸탐쇋퇐뺿,헢킩뻝횤쏷닺돶좱뿚뗄쾵쫽늻펦첫뗍(쯻쏇뗄볆쯣뷡퇐뺿돉맻뷒쪾쇋탭뛠퓚짨볆첩샕탍맦퓲쪱뇘탫뾼싇뗄컊쳢ꆣ쫗쿈맻죏캪펦듳폚016믲헟018),죧맻죏쪶떽닢솿춨믵엲헍싊틔벰맀볆쪵볊뻹뫢샻싊뫍잱퓚닺돶폐늻춬랽램뗄쫂벴쪹늻뾼횤퓚첩샕맦퓲훐냼삨닺돶좱뿚틲쯘쪵뗄풭틲,닢쯣잱퓚닺돶뗄훷맛탔튲떼훂쇋늻좷탔,퓲맀볆뷡맻뗄컈뚨탔붫뛔쫽뻝뗄톡퓱쪮럖쏴룐ꆣ웤듎욫닮ꆣ첩샕[1]닉폃쇋붫쪱볤쟷쫆폫쪵볊닺돶쓢,믵뇒헾닟떱뻖쏦쇙뗄탅쾢믱좡쪱볤컊쳢믡펰쿬헾닟맦퓲뗄뷡릹틔벰헾닟뷡맻뫏뗄냬램닢쯣잱퓚닺돶,웤쯻컄쿗훐짦벰뗄웤쯻,헢쪹튻킩퇐뺿헟뛔틀뻝벴웚뗄춨믵엲헍싊뫍닺돶쮮욽퇐랽램폐뛔쪵볊닺돶뷸탐럖뛎쿟탔믘맩ꆢ뛾듎믘맩ꆢ뺿릤뻟맦퓲쫇럱뫏쫊닺짺쇋훊틉HP싋늨틔벰쏀맺맺믡풤쯣냬릫쫒(Congressional,틲캪쿖쪵훐뗄훐퇫틸탐횻쓜틀삵훍뫳탅쾢ퟶ돶뻶닟ꆣ웤쯻튻킩BudgetOffice)퓋폃뗄뷡릹탔랽램(틔쿂볲돆CBO죋퓲뛔샻폃탞헽뫳뗄쫽뻝살맀쯣튻룶샺쪷헾닟맦램)뗈ꋙꆣ좻뛸늻춬뗄잱퓚닺돶닢쯣랽램믡떼훂퓲뗄ퟶ램탄듦틉싇늻춬뗄헾닟붨틩ꆣK[2]ozicki뗄럖컶뷡맻뇭쏷,늻,틲캪헾닟훆뚨헟췹췹쫇룹뻝헦쪵쪱볤쫽뻝춬뗄잱퓚닺돶닢쯣랽램뗃떽뗄샻싊붨틩쮮욽폐(real2timedata)살짨볆샻싊슷뺶뗄ꆣ퓙듎019룶냙럖뗣떽214룶냙럖뗣뗄닮틬ꆣ,첩샕맦퓲뗄뷡릹볙뚨헾닟훆뚨헟뷶룹뻝떱잰탅쾢ퟶ돶뻶닟(죽)뻹뫢뗄쪵볊샻싊쮮욽,헢튻맛뗣뫍훐퇫틸탐뗄잰햰탔쳘헷쫇쎬뛜뗄ꆣ틲듋뿉쓜ퟮ쓑맀볆뗄뇤솿뻍쫇뻹뫢뗄쪵볊샻싊쮮,탭뛠퇐뺿헟룼볓횧돖잰햰탔욽ꆣ삩햹뗄첩샕맦퓲틢캶ퟅ뛔뻹뫢샻싊쮮욽뗄맀(forward-looking)맦퓲ꆣퟮ뫳,탭뛠첩샕맦퓲뗄룄뷸냦볓뷸쇋듺뇭훐퇫틸탐샻싊욽뮬탐캪볆믡횱뷓펰쿬샻싊쮮욽뗄붨틩횵ꆣ튻룶뗤탍뗄첩뗄늿럖ꆣ뷓쿂살붫뛔짏쫶쎿튻뗣뷸탐쿪쾸뾼달ꆣ샕탍맦퓲쫇평튻룶캴맛닢떽뗄뻹뫢쪵볊샻싊쮮욽(튻)춨헍쮮욽뗄닢쯣뫍튻룶퓚뛠쫽쟩뿶쿂캴맛닢떽뗄춨믵엲헍쒿뇪쯹퓚첩샕탍맦퓲훐펦쪹폃뫎훖볛룱뇤솿틔벰톡ퟩ돉뗄,뷢뻶헢룶컊쳢뗄튻훖ퟮ뎣폃뗄랽램쫇퓚퓱뛠뎤뗄춨헍웚랽쏦쎻폐탎돉튻훂틢볻ꆣ첩샕풭솽룶뇤솿훐쿈볙짨튻룶뇤솿횵,좻뫳퓙맀볆쇭튻쪽닉폃쓪뛈GDP쯵복횸쫽뗄뇤뚯ퟷ캪춨헍쮮욽룶뇤솿ꆣ퓋폃헢훖랽램뗄폐K[2]ozickiꆢClarida,뗄뫢솿냬램[1],쯦뫳,웤쯻퇐뺿헟닉폃쇋튻킩웤Gali뫍G[5]ertler(틔쿂볲돆CGG)틔벰Judd뫍쯻뗄쳦듺볛룱횸쫽ꆣK[2]ozicki닉폃쯄훖닢쯣쏀R[6]udebusch,쯻쏇붫뻹뫢쪵볊샻싊쫓캪욽뻹솪냮맺춨헍쮮욽뗄랽램뇈뷏쇋첩샕맦퓲,헢킩랽램냼믹뷰샻싊뫍욽뻹춨믵엲헍싊횮닮ꆣ폐쇋닢쯣뻹뫢삨폃CPIꆢ뫋탄CPI뫍GDP쯵복횸쫽볆쯣쓪뛈춨쪵볊샻싊뗄랽램,뻍뿉틔평맀볆돶뗄첩샕맦퓲쒣헍싊,뮹냼삨폃쮽죋늿쏅뗄욽뻹풤웚볆쯣풤웚춨탍뗄뎣쫽쿮쟳돶쒿뇪춨믵엲헍싊ꆣ랴횮,죧맻뾪헍쮮욽ꆣKozicki샻폃첩샕맦퓲볆쯣쇋늻춬랽램쪼룸뚨뗄쫇춨믵엲헍쒿뇪,튲쓜폃헢훖랽램볆쯣ꋙWoodford(2001)ꆢMcCallum뫍Nelson(1999)쫇랴뛔닉폃쪱볤쟷쫆럖컶살맀쯣잱퓚닺돶뗄,쯻쏇죏캪잱퓚닺돶훷튪쫇쫜췢짺돥믷펰쿬뗄,뛸쪱볤쟷쫆럖컶늢늻쓜늶ힽ떽헢킩췢짺돥믷틲쯘ꆣ' 1994-2008 China Academic Journal Electronic Publishing House. All rights reserved.
16닆뺭컊쳢퇐뺿ꆡꆡ2005쓪뗚8웚ꆡꆡퟜ뗚261웚돶뻹뫢쪵볊샻싊쮮욽ꆣ뮹폐튻킩웤쯻뗄뢴퓓랽뿉쓜뇜쏢ꆣ떫쫇,Orphanides(2001)랴늵쇋헢훖램[7],죧Rudebusch샻폃IS랽돌맀볆뻹뫢쪵볊샻맛뗣,쯻뗄퇐뺿뇭쏷,죧맻떱뻖샻폃떱쪱뗄뿉뗃쫽싊쮮욽:뻝내헕첩샕맦퓲뗷뷚샻싊쮮욽늢늻쓜뇜쏢쓇뎡춨y=;t1y3yt-1+;2t-2-ꛈ(it-1-ꛐt-1-r)+ꛍ(211)믵엲헍ꆣRudebusch맀볆뻹뫢쪵볊샻싊쮮욽3r뗈폚(웟)샻싊욽뮬(Interestratesmoothing)212%,헢폫첩샕맦퓲풭쪽훐뗄횵쿠쯆ꆣ훐퇫틸탐ퟜ쫇쫔춼욽뮬샻싊뗄퓋뚯슷뺶,쪹좻뛸,볙짨뻹뫢쪵볊샻싊캪뎣쫽놾짭쫇횵뗃샻싊퇘ퟅ쿠춬랽쿲뮺싽틆뚯,뺡솿뇜쏢욵랱뗘룄뮳틉뗄ꆣK[2]ozicki뛔쏀맺뻹뫢쪵볊샻싊쮮욽뗄뇤웤퓋뚯랽쿲ꆣ틲듋,뾼싇떽샻싊욽뮬틲쯘뛸탞맀볆뷡맻쯦ퟅ쯹톡퇹놾쟸볤뗄뇤뮯뛸뇤뮯,헢뇭헽뗄첩샕탍맦퓲볓죫쇋훍뫳샻싊헢튻쿮ꆣSack쏷뻹뫢쪵볊샻싊쮮욽뿉쓜늢늻쫇뎣쫽,Rapach뫍뫍W[13]ieland뛔샻싊욽뮬탐캪뺿뺹쫇믵뇒헾닟떱W[8]eber퓚닢쯣튻킩맺볒쪵볊샻싊쮮욽쪱튲뗃돶뻖뛔뫪맛뺭볃쳵볾돖탸탔뗄놻뚯랴펳뮹쫇뿌틢캪쇋헢튻뷡싛ꆣ횮쳡돶쇋훊틉ꆣ죧맻샻싊욽뮬탐캪뷶쫇믵뇒떱뻖(쯄)떱잰(current)쫽뻝뫍훍뫳(lagged)쫽뻝뛔뫪맛뺭볃뇤솿돖탸탔뗄놻뚯랴펦,쓇쎴뻍폐샭평폚헾닟훆뚨헟퓚ퟶ돶뻶닟쪱늢늻쓜믱뗃떱평쿠탅훍뫳샻싊쿮뗄쾵쫽펦룃뇈뷏킡믲헟늻쿔잰뗄탅쾢,평듋틽웰쇋튻뎡퓚맀볆샻싊맦퓲쪱뺿훸ꆣ좻뛸,뛔냼몬샻싊훍뫳쿮뗄첩샕탍맦퓲뷸뺹쫇퓋폃떱잰쫽뻝뮹쫇퓋폃훍뫳쫽뻝뗄헹싛ꆣ튻탐볬퇩뗄뗤탍뷡맻횤쏷,헢튻쾵쫽뇈뷏듳늢쟒냣살쮵,뺭퇩횤뻝늢쎻폐쿔쪾퓋폃훍뫳쫽뻝듺쳦쿔훸,쮵쏷샻싊욽뮬쿖쿳펦쫇훐퇫틸탐뗄뿌틢떱잰쫽뻝쪱믡떼훂훘듳좱쿝[4][9][10]ꆣ평폚춨믵탐캪ꆣ엲헍뫍닺돶쮮욽쫇폐튻뚨맟탔뗄,맊폃훍뫳뗄춨탭뛠싛뻝뇭쏷쇋욽뮬샻싊쿖쿳뗄듦퓚,웤훐헍싊뫍닺돶좱뿚듺쳦떱잰횵늢늻믡뛔뷡맻닺짺뛠튻킩뷢쫍쇋캪쪲쎴훐퇫틸탐튪뇜쏢랢짺샻싊퓚퓋듳펰쿬ꆣ떱좻,컒쏇폐샭평쿠탅,훐퇫틸탐퓚뷸탐뚯랽쿲짏뗄욵랱뇤뮯ꆣW14]illiam[s죏캪,샻싊랽샻싊뗷헻뻶닟쪱뛔뺭볃퓋탐ힴ뿶쯹헆컕뗄탅쾢쫇쿲돶쿖욵랱뇤뚯퓚릫훚뾴살뿉쓜쫇훐퇫틸탐랸쇋뛠폚평춨헍뫍닺돶쯹랴펳뗄탅쾢뗄[11]ꆣ헢뗣뿉듭컳,틲듋,놣돖샻싊퓋뚯뗄랽쿲쓜캬뮤훐퇫틸탐틔횤쏷,샻폃떱잰쫽뻝듺쳦훍뫳쫽뻝놻죏캪낵훐뗄탅폾ꆣ욽뮬뗄샻싊쮮욽튲뿉틔뾴ퟷ쫇뛔늻쓜믱냼몬쇋튻킩쎻폐퓚춨헍뫍닺돶훐쯹랴펳뗄뗃뺫좷뗄뺭볃탅쾢틔벰폐맘믵뇒헾닟뒫떼믺훆럇탅쾢[2][10]ꆣ좷뚨탔뗄랴펳,뾼싇떽쪵볊뺭볃퓋탐훐뗄헢킩럇(컥)잰햰탔맦퓲(Forward2lookingrules)좷뚨탔,훐퇫틸탐붫쟣쿲폚춨맽뮺싽뗷헻틔쪵쿖믵뇒떱뻖튻냣믡믹폚뛔캴살뺭볃뮷뺳뗄풤웚뗷뿘쒿뇪[13]ꆣ뛸훆뚨헾닟,쿠펦뗘,듳뛠쫽퇐뺿헟쟣쿲폚퓋폃뻟죽ꆢ첩샕탍맦퓲뗄맀볆폐잰햰탔믲믹폚풤웚(forecast2based)뗄샻싊맦퓲폐맘첩샕탍맦퓲쪵횤볬퇩뗄컄쿗럇뎣뛠,웤뛸늻쫇떱웚뗄샻싊맦퓲ꆣ헢퇹퓚떱잰맦퓲뫍훍뫳훐듳늿럖뚼쫔춼솿뮯탭뛠맺볒퓚20쫀볍80쓪듺맦퓲헹뇧훐횧돖떱잰맦퓲뗄싛뻝튲뿉틔폃폚횧돖뫍90쓪듺돵캪쇋뿘훆춨믵엲헍뛸뗷헻뗄뫪맛뺭잰햰탔맦퓲ꆣ떫쫇평폚춨헍뫍닺돶뗄맟탔쳘헷,볃헾닟ꆣ좻뛸,샻폃늻춬샠탍뗄쫽뻝믲헟쒣탍ퟶ잰햰탔맀볆쫇럱뇈떱잰맦퓲믲훍뫳탍맦퓲맀볆폅돶뗄퇐뺿뷡맻폐쏷쿔뗄닮틬ꆣ뷓쿂살,캪쇋쮵쏷풽뮹늻뗃뛸횪ꆣ짏컄럖컶뗄훮뛠틲쯘뛔쪵횤뷡맻펰쿬뗄쿠뛔훘튪(쇹)떱쪱(current2time)쫽뻝폫쪵쪱(real2탔,컒쏇붫믘맋첩샕[12](닉폃첩샕맦퓲풭쪽)ꆢ[6]time)쫽뻝Judd뫍Rudebusch(닉폃뾼싇쇋샻싊욽뮬탐캪훚쯹훜횪,뺭볃쫽뻝믡퓚풭쪼쫽뻝뗄믹뒡짏뗄탞헽첩샕맦퓲)틔벰CGG[5](닉폃뾼싇쇋잰햰뺭맽쫽듎탞헽,폐킩탞헽짵훁랢짺퓚벸쓪횮뫳ꆣ탔틲쯘뗄탞헽첩샕맦퓲)뗄퇐뺿뷡싛,헢죽쿮퇐틲듋,볆쯣평첩샕맦퓲풭쪽떼돶뗄붨틩샻싊쮮욽뺿뚼틔쏀맺캪럖컶뛔쿳ꆣ쪱,샻폃떱쪱쫽뻝뗃돶뗄뷡싛폫샻폃쪵쪱쫽뻝뗃(튻)쒣탍돶뗄뷡싛쫇췪좫늻춬뗄ꆣ첩샕[12]퓋폃떱쪱쫽뻝캪쇋붨솢쒣탍,첩샕붫쏻틥샻싊맦퓲맀볆쯣뇭쏷,죧맻솪뒢닉폃첩샕맦퓲짨뚨솪냮믹뷰볆캪:ꆡꆡ샻싊뗄뮰,랢짺퓚20쫀볍70쓪듺뗄춨믵엲헍뻍i=ꛄ+(1+ꛁ)ꛐ+ꛂy(311)ttt' 1994-2008 China Academic Journal Electronic Publishing House. All rights reserved.
첩샕탍맦퓲뗄퇐뺿컄쿗ퟛ쫶17Judd뫍Rudebusch뾼싇떽솪냮믹뷰샻싊뗄붥늼샗뛙즭쇖쳥쾵쪱웚(1960Q121979Q4)틔벰뫳늼뷼뗷헻,퓋폃컳닮탞헽램뛔첩샕맦퓲뷸탐쇋탞헽ꆣ샗뛙즭쇖쳥쾵쪱웚(1987Q121997Q3)ꆣ쇮3it캪춨맽붥뷸뗷헻뿉틔듯떽뗄솪냮믹뷰샻싊폫첩샕[12]폐쯹늻춬[6],Judd뫍Rudebusch붨틩횵,퓲탞헽뫳뗄첩샕맦퓲캪:퓲퓋폃쇋튻쾵쇐볛룱횸쫽(냼삨GDP욽복횸쫽ꆢ3i=3r+ꛐ+ꛁ(ꛐ-ꛐ3)+ꛂttt1y+ꛂt2yt-1(312)뫋탄쿻럑볛룱횸쫽ꆢ룶죋쿻럑횧돶횸쫽)살뫢솿헢샯뗄뗷헻맽돌평쿂쪽뻶뚨:춨믵엲헍쮮욽,떫쯻쏇죔붫볛룱쮮욽벾뛈뇤뮯ꚤ3i=ꛃ(i-ittt-1)+ꛑꚤit-1(313)뗄쯄룶벾뛈욽뻹횵뚨틥캪춨헍싊ꆣ퓚잱퓚닺돶웤훐,쾵쫽ꛃ뫢솿쇋뛔샻싊컳닮뗄탞헽,쾵랽쏦,돽쇋샻폃CBO램췢,쯻쏇튲뛔쪵볊닺돶뷸쫽ꛑ뫢솿쇋짏튻웚샻싊뇤뮯뗄맟탔ꆣퟛ뫏(312)탐럖뛎쿟탔럖컶뫍뛾듎럖컶ꆣ쯻쏇붫쏀맺뗄뺭쪽뫍(313)쪽,냼몬샻싊욽뮬쿮뗄첩샕탍맦퓲뿉볃쫽뻝내헕솪뒢훷쾯뗄죎웚뮮럖캪죽룶퇹놾:틔맀볆캪:늮뛷쮹쪱웚(1970Q321978Q2)ꆢ컖뛻뿋쪱웚ꚤi=ꛃitt-1+ꛃ(1+ꛁ)ꛐ+ꛃꛂt1y+ꛃꛂt2yt-1+ꛑꚤit-1(1979Q321987Q2)뫍룱쇖쮹엋쪱웚(1987Q32(314)웤훐1997Q4)ꆣ3,ꛆ=r-ꛁꛐ3ꆣ퓚CGG[5]뛔첩샕맦퓲뷸탐뗄믹ힼ맀볆훐,춨CGG[5][15]뛔놻웤쯻퇐뺿헟뺭뎣닉폃뗄늿럖뗷헻탎쪽믵엲헍쮮욽쫇폃내쓪볆쯣뗄GDP욽복횸쫽벾뛈(partial2adjustment)뗄첩샕맦퓲뷸탐쇋뷸튻늽뗄탞헽퓶뎤싊뫢솿뗄,뛔잱퓚닺돶뗄닢쯣퓋폃CBO램ꆣ,틔랴펳믵뇒떱뻖뗄잰햰탔탐캪ꆣ쯻쏇뗄샻싊맦퓲뿉틔뇭쪾캪틲캪붫잰햰탔틲쯘볓죫쇋쒣탍,맊쯻쏇폃캴살뗄:쪵볊춨헍횵듺쳦춨헍풤웚ꆣ떱좻,쯻쏇튲퓋폃웤33i=i+ꛕ(E[ꛐꛐ3)+ꛂE[y(315)tt,k|ꚸ]-tt,q|ꚸ]t헢샯뗄쯻랽램뛔잱퓚닺돶뫍춨믵엲헍뷸탐뫢솿,죧폃쿻3i뇭쪾쒿뇪쏻틥샻싊3,i뇭쪾떱춨헍t뫍닺돶뒦폚쒿뇪쮮욽쪱쯹웚췻뗄쏻틥샻싊쮮욽럑볛룱횸쫽횸뇪볆쯣춨믵엲헍ꆢ폃닺돶뗄뛾듎쟷,ꛐ쫆듺쳦CBO램ꆢ폃쪧튵뗄쪵볊횵폫쟷쫆횵횮볤뗄t,k뇭쪾듓t웚떽t+k웚뗄볛룱뇤뮯,yt,q캪t웚떽좱뿚듺쳦닺돶좱뿚뗈ꆣ뻹뫢뗄쪵볊샻싊쮮욽뻍쫇t+q웚뗄욽뻹닺돶좱뿚,ꚸt뇭쪾퓚짨뚨샻싊쪱쯹헆컕뗄탅쾢벯ꆣ샻싊욽뮬춨맽쿂쪽뇭쪾뗄늿뿉맛닢뗄퇹놾웚쓚쪵볊샻싊쮮욽뗄욽뻹횵ꆣ죧맻럖뗷헻맽돌쪵쿖룸뚨쇋뻹뫢쪵볊샻싊쮮욽,쒿뇪춨믵엲헍싊뻍뿉:틔뫍릤뻟맦퓲훐뗄웤쯻닎쫽튻웰맀볆ꆣ룹뻝솪뒢i=ꛑ(L)itt-1+(1-ꛑ3)i;ꛑ(L)=ꛑt1+ꛑ2L+ꆭꛑ훷쾯뗄죎웚,쯻쏇붫퇹놾웚럖캪솽늿럖:잰컖뛻뿋nLn-1;ꛑꇔꛑ(1)(316)헢샯뗄쪱웚(1960Q121979Q2)뫍컖뛻뿋-룱쇖쮹엋쪱웚it쫇평믵뇒떱뻖짨뚨뗄떱잰샻싊쮮욽(1979Q321996Q4)ꆣ,뷡뫏(315)뫍(316)쪽,릤뻟맦퓲뿉틔맀볆캪:(죽)맀볆뷡맻i=(1-ꛑ3)[r-(ꛕ-1)ꛐ3+ꛕꛐtt,k+ꛂyt,q]+ꛑ(L)첩샕[12]틔벰[6]Judd뫍Rudebusch뚼쫇퓋폃i317)t-1+ꛅ(t웤훐3웕춨ퟮ킡뛾돋램(OLS)믲헟럇쿟탔ퟮ킡뛾돋램,r=3i-ꛐ3뇭쪾뎤웚뻹뫢샻싊쮮욽,쟒폐(non2linearleastsquares)맀볆쯻쏇뗄샻싊맦퓲,ꛅ=-(1-ꛑ)[ꛕ(ꛐ뛸CGG퓲샻폃맣틥뻘랽램(generalizedmethodoftt,k-E[ꛐ+ꛂ(yt,k|ꚸ])tt,q-E[y18)moments,GMM)뷸탐맀볆ꆣ평폚(318)쪽훐뗄컳t,q|ꚸ])](3t(뛾)뇤솿뗄뚨틥닮쿮쫇컳닮풤웚뗄쿟탔ퟩ뫏,맊쯼폫탅쾢벯ꚸt펦뺡맜릤뻟맦퓲뗄맀볆탎쪽쫇쿠쯆뗄,떫헢킩쫇헽붻뗄ꆣ틲듋,뿉틔듓탅쾢벯훐쳡좡튻ퟩ릤뻟퇐뺿퓋폃쇋뛠훖뇤솿뫍랽램릹붨춨헍쮮욽뫍닺폃폚GMM맀볆,CGG닉폃뗄헢킩릤뻟폐솪냮믹돶,헽죧잰컄쯹쫶,늻춬뗄닢쯣랽램믡떼훂췪좫늻뷰샻싊뗄훍뫳횵ꆢ춨헍싊ꆢ닺돶좱뿚ꆢ짌욷컯볛횸춬뗄맀볆뷡맻ꆣ쫽틔벰죽룶퓂맺뿢좯샻싊뫍뎤웚햮좯샻싊횮닮ꆣ첩샕[12]춨맽볆쯣GDP볛룱욽복횸쫽벾뛈뇤퓚헢킩퇐뺿훐,쏻틥솪냮믹뷰샻싊놻쫓ퟷ믵뇒떱뮯뗄쯄룶벾뛈뗄욽뻹횵살뚨틥춨헍쮮욽,늢뛔쪵뻖뗄닙ퟷ릤뻟ꆣ볊GDP뷸탐HP싋늨(Hodrick2Prescottfilter)틔뗃11첩샕뗄맀볆뷡맻돶잱퓚닺돶ꆣ첩샕뛔헢룶릤뻟맦퓲춨맽죽룶퇹놾첩샕[12]뛔첩샕맦퓲뗄맀볆뷡맻죧뇭1쯹쪾웚뷸탐맀볆:맺볊뷰놾캻쪱웚(1879Q121914Q4)ꆢ(늼샗뛙즭쇖쳥쾵쪱웚뗄맀볆뷡맻헢샯쎻폐쳖' 1994-2008 China Academic Journal Electronic Publishing House. All rights reserved.
18닆뺭컊쳢퇐뺿ꆡꆡ2005쓪뗚8웚ꆡꆡퟜ뗚261웚싛)ꆣ평폚1960Q121979Q4웚볤ꛊ뗄맀볆횵(퓚좫쿠랴ꆣ311쪽훐ꛊ=1+ꛁ)킡폚1,헢뇭쏷(311)쪽훐춨ꆡꆡꆡꆡꆡJudd뫍Rudebusch(1998)뗄맀볆헍쿮뗄쾵쫽쫇뢺뗄,듺뇭쇋쫊펦탔믵뇒헾닟(벴뇭2aꆡꆡ뷡맻(늮뛷쮹쪱웚:1970Q3ꆪ1978Q2)헢튻쪱웚쎻폐뛔춨헍닉좡폐킧뗄뿘훆)ꆣ좻뛸,ꛊi=ꛃ[ꛆ+(1+ꛁ)ꛐ+ꛂtt1y+ꛂt2yt-1]+(1-ꛃ)it-1+ꛑꚤit-1뗄맀볆횵퓚1987쓪튻벾뛈뫳듳폚1,헢뇭쏷솪뒢퓚헢뛎쪱볤쓚횴탐쇋컈뚨춨헍헾닟ꆣ헢킩뷡맻뚼춨헍뫍잱퓚뫍닺돶뗄뚨틥ꛃꛆꛁꛂ1ꛂ2ꛑ20쫀볍70쓪듺뗄룟춨헍틔벰20쫀볍80쓪듺뫳뗄뿘훆춨헍헾닟쿠튻훂ꆣ퓚뫳튻룶퇹놾쪱웚GDP쯵복횸쫽0158017101890126,--(뛔폚닺돶컈뚨탔뗄맘힢돌뛈쏷쿔볓잿CBO잱퓚닺돶4178)(2168)(5185)(1176),헢튻뗣뿉틔듓닺돶좱뿚쾵쫽뗄퓶볓뾴돶살ꆣPCE쯵복횸쫽0151019501860117--CBO잱퓚닺돶(4133)(2198)(4167)(1114)뇭1첩샕(1999b)뗄맀볆뷡맻뫋탄CPI0156113011140134--i=ꛄ+ꛊꛐ+ꛂy(믲i=ꛄ+(1+ꛁ)ꛐ+ꛂyttttTCBO잱퓚닺돶(3146)(4117)(6112)(1199)맀볆쟸볤ꛄꛊꛁꛂGDP쯵복횸쫽0152115411070125럖뛎쿟탔쟷쫆--(4115)(3176)(4183)(1159)1960Q1ꆪ210450181301252-011871979Q4GDP쯵복횸쫽0159-011501880126(6134)(1219)(4193)뛾뷗쟷쫆--(4178)(-0158)(5190)(1178)1987Q1ꆪ111741153301765015331997Q4(2135)(9171)(8122)퓚맀볆컖뛻뿋쪱웚뗄믵뇒헾닟맦퓲쪱,Judd힢:삨뫅훐뗄쫽ퟖ쫇t횵(틔쿂뇭춬)ꆣ뫍Rudebusch힢틢떽믵뇒떱뻖룼볓힢훘뛔닺돶좱21Judd뫍Rudebusch(2000)뗄맀볆뷡맻뿚뗄뇤뮯뛸늻쫇뛔닺돶좱뿚쮮욽ퟶ돶랴펦(좻Judd뫍Rudebusch뗄맀볆뷡맻캪첩샕탍맦퓲뛸,쯻쏇늢쎻폐쳡릩쿠맘횤뻝)ꆣ틲듋,퓚쯻쏇뗄뗄맀볆뷡맻폫춨믵엲헍뫍잱퓚닺돶뗄닢쯣랽램쏜맀볆뷡맻훐,떱웚뫍훍뫳웚닺돶좱뿚뗄쾵쫽횮뫍쟐쿠맘뗄맛뗣쳡릩쇋샽횤ꆣ캪쇋뇣폚뇈뷏,Judd퇏룱뗈폚0(볻뇭2b)ꆣJudd뫍Rudebusch뗃떽뫍Rudebusch붫샻싊램퓲훐뗄쏻틥샻싊럅퓚쇋헽뗄ꛁ맀볆횵,뇭쏷퓚헢뛎쪱웚쓚횴탐뗄쫇럇(314)쪽뗄ퟳ뇟:쫊펦탔믵뇒헾닟ꆣꆡꆡꆡꆡꆡJudd뫍Rudebusch(1998)뗄맀볆i=ꛃ[ꛆ+(1+ꛁ)ꛐ+ꛂ+ꛂtt1yt2yt-1]+(1-ꛃ)it-1+ꛑꚤi뇭2bꆡꆡ뷡맻(컖뛻뿋쪱웚:1979Q3ꆪ1987Q2)t-1(319)뇭2a훁2cퟜ뷡쇋Judd뫍Rudebusch룹뻝늻i=ꛃ[ꛆ+(1+ꛁ)ꛐ+ꛂtt1y+ꛂt2yt-1]+(1-ꛃ)it-1+ꛑꚤit-1춬솪뒢훷쾯죎횰웚볤,닉폃늻춬뗄춨헍뫍잱퓚닺춨헍뫍잱퓚돶뚨틥뷸탐뗄맀볆뷡맻ꆣ샻싊쮮욽뗄짨뚨횵믡쯦닺돶뗄뚨틥ꛃꛆꛁꛂ1ꛂ2ꛑퟅ쳘뚨춨헍싊뫍잱퓚닺돶뚨틥뗄닉폃뛸돤럖뗘뇤GDP쯵복횸뮯쫽0144214201461153-1153,CBO잱-,튻냣살쮵,평폚춨헍뚨틥뗄늻춬틽웰뗄샻싊짨뚨횵뗄뇤뚯럹뛈튪킡폚평폚잱퓚닺돶뚨틥뗄늻춬퓚닺돶(3164)(1156)(1179)(1192)(-1192)PCE쯵복횸뛸떼훂뗄뇤뚯ꆣ평폚튻킩뇤솿늢늻쿔훸,Judd뫍쫽2158-2158,CBO잱012911460154-Rudebusch퓚ퟮ뫳뗄맀볆뷡맻훐즾돽쇋헢킩퓚닺돶(2159)(0152)(1121)(1165)(-1165)뇤솿ꆣ뫋탄CPI,2157-2157튻룶폐좤뗄랢쿖쫇CBO잱퓚013511320135-,퓚늮뛷쮹쪱웚,춨헍닎쫽ꛁ퓚춳볆짏늢늻쿔훸닺돶(3103)(0157)(1111)(2107)(-2107)(볻뇭2a),헢뇭쏷,헢튻쪱웚뗄쏻틥샻싊쮮욽늢늻쯦춨헍뗄뇤뮯뛸뗷GDP쯵복횸쫽1157-1157,럖뛎쿟탔014321290148-헻ꆣ쇭췢,퓚헢튻쪱웚,ꆰ컳닮탞헽ꆱ쿮뗄맀볆닎쟷쫆(3146)(1139)(1175)(1184)(-1184)쫽쪼훕듳폚뫢솿샻싊퓋뚯맟탔뗄맀볆닎쫽ꛑ,헢GDP쯵복횸0143212301501160-1160튻뷡맻뇭쏷,샻싊쮮욽뇤뚯뷏뛠뗄쫇평쿲웚췻쫽-,뛾뷗쟷쫆(3146)(1133)(1178)(1184)(-1184)횵뷸탐뗷헻쯹틽웰뗄,뛸뷏짙뗘쫜떽샻싊퓋뚯퓚뛔룱쇖쮹엋쪱웚뷸탐맀볆쪱,Judd뫍맟탔뗄펰쿬ꆣ뛸헢훖맘쾵퓚룱쇖쮹엋쪱웚좴췪Rudebusch랢쿖,룹뻝늻춬뗄춨헍뫍잱퓚닺돶뗄' 1994-2008 China Academic Journal Electronic Publishing House. All rights reserved.
첩샕탍맦퓲뗄퇐뺿컄쿗ퟛ쫶19뚨틥쯹뗃떽뗄맀볆뷡맻퓚컈뚨탔랽쏦늻죧늮뛷쮹닺돶좱뿚ꆣ쯻쏇볬퇩뗄웤쯻맦퓲뮹폐:뫳맋탍(k뫍컖뛻뿋쪱웚(볻뇭2c)ꆣ쯦ퟅ볛룱뫍잱퓚닺돶=q=-1)뗄ꆢ쳡잰튻쓪뗄춨믵엲헍좱뿚풤웚뗄닢쯣랽램뗄룄뇤,맀볆뷡맻쿔쪾믵뇒떱뻖뛔닺돶(k=4)틔벰쳡잰튻벾뛈뗄닺돶좱뿚풤웚뗄(q=좱뿚뗄랴펦(ꛂ)쎻폐뛠듳뇤뮯,뛸뛔춨믵엲헍뗄1)ꆣ힢틢떽평폚맦퓲훐쎻폐쏷좷뗘냼몬쪵볊샻랴펦(ꛁ)좴돶쿖쇋쾷뻧탔뇤뮯ꆣ싊,쪽(311)폫탎죧(315)쪽뗄CGG맦퓲늢늻쓜ꆡꆡꆡꆡꆡJudd뫍Rudebusch(1998)뗄맀볆횱뷓쿠뇈뷏ꆣ죧맻볙뚨놻맀볆뗄맦퓲뛔늻춬뗄쪱뇭2cꆡ뷡맻(룱쇖쮹엋쪱웚:1987Q3ꆪ1997Q4)볤쫓뷧폐뷏뫃컈붡탔뗄뮰,쓇쎴쳡잰튻벾뛈풤웚뗄룷훖맦퓲뗄볬퇩뷡맻퓚훊짏듳쳥짏쫇쿠쯆뗄ꆣi=ꛃ[ꛆ+(1+ꛁ)ꛐ+ꛂꛂtt1y+t2yt-1]+(1-ꛃ)it-1+ꛑꚤit-1ꆡꆡꆡꆡꆡꆡCGG(2OOO)뗄맀볆뷡맻춨헍뫍잱퓚뇭3aꆡꆡ(잰컖뛻뿋쪱웚:1960Q1ꆪ1979Q2)닺돶뗄뚨틥ꛃꛆꛁꛂ1ꛂ2ꛑi=(1-ꛑ3)[r-(ꛕ-1)ꛐ3+ꛕꛐGDtt,k+ꛂyt,q]+ꛑ(L)it-1ꛅtP쯵복횸쫽01281131015401990142,CBO-춨믵엲헍뫍잱퓚닺돶잱퓚닺돶(5127)(2126)(2196)(7146)(4100)뗄뚨틥ꛕꛂꛐ3ꛑPCE쯵복GDP쯵복횸쫽,CBO0183012741240168횸쫽01232139010711020144,CBO-잱퓚닺돶(11186)(3138)(3189)(1316)잱퓚닺돶(4130)(3156)(0137)(5166)(3189)GDP쯵복횸쫽,CBO0186013951950168뫋탄CPI,잱퓚닺돶,k=q=-1(12128)(4188)(311)(1316)01251100013711150149CBO잱퓚-GDP쯵복횸쫽,CBO0186013431580173닺돶(4156)(1128)(1179)(7120)(4147)잱퓚닺돶,k=4,q=1(1712)(4125)(2152)(18125)GDP쯵복CPI쯵복횸쫽,CBO잱0168012841560165횸쫽35-019901900154,럖뛎011851-퓚닺돶(11133)(3150)(8160)(1310)쿟탔쟷쫆(3156)(3152)(-1193)(3199)(4188)GDP쯵복횸쫽,닺돶0175012941170167GDP쯵복쟷쫆욽랽(10171)(3162)(6113)(13140)횸쫽013701820152,뛾뷗01281109-쟷쫆(4177)(1180)(1190)(7105)(4194)GDP쯵복횸쫽,쪧튵0184016031800163싊쟷쫆(16180)(5145)(4137)(15175)Judd뫍Rudebusch닉좡뗄훰늽뗷헻램쪹뗃쪵볊샻싊뗄랴펦뷡맻킡폚첩샕맦퓲ꆡꆡꆡꆡꆡꆡꆡCGG(2OOO)뗄맀볆뷡맻(311쪽)ꆣ쿔뛸뇭3bꆡ(컖뛻뿋-룱쇖쮹엋쪱웚:1979Q3ꆪ1996Q4)틗볻뗄쫇,샻싊뛔춨믵엲헍(1+ꛁ)랴펦쾵쫽뗄맀볆횵놻컳닮탞헽쿮ꛃ쯹붵뗍쇋i=(1-ꛑ3)[r-(ꛕ-1)ꛐ3+ꛕꛐtt,k+ꛂyt,q]+ꛑ(L)it-1ꛅt,헢틢캶ퟅ쏻틥샻싊뗄ퟮ훕랴펦붫킡폚1ꆣ춨믵엲헍뫍잱퓚닺돶31CGG뗄뚨틥ꛕꛂꛐ3ꛑ(2OOO)뗄맀볆뷡맻캪쇋맀볆헾닟맦퓲GDP쯵복횸쫽,CBO2115019331580179,CGG쫗쿈탨튪맀쯣쪵볊뻹뫢샻싊3잱퓚닺돶(5137)(2121)(7116)(19175)r벰쒿뇪춨믵엲헍싊ꛐ3ꆣCGG폃맛닢떽뗄퇹놾웚쪵볊샻싊뗄욽뻹횵ퟷ캪3r뗄듺샭횵,GDP쯵복횸쫽,CBO1172013441080171떫퓊탭웤퓚ퟓ퇹놾볤뇤뚯ꆣ룸뚨3잱퓚닺돶,k=q=-1(6114)(1178)(7128)(1412)r,쒿뇪춨믵엲헍싊ꛐ3뻍뿉틔폫랽돌(317)쪽훐뗄웤쯼닎쫽튻GDP쯵복횸쫽,CBO2162018331250178웰맀볆ꆣ뇭3a뫍뇭3b쿔쪾쇋헢킩맀볆뷡맻ꆣ죧잱퓚닺돶,k=4,q=1(8145)(2196)(14113)(2610)맻쎻폐쳘쫢쮵쏷,폫헢킩뷡맻쿠뛔펦뗄춨믵엲헍CPI쯵복횸쫽,CBO잱2114114931470188풤웚뫍닺돶좱뿚풤웚뚼쫇횸뛔쿂튻벾뛈횵뗄풤웚퓚닺돶(4112)(1171)(4139)(29133)(벴퓚317쪽훐폐:k=q=1)ꆣGDP쯵복횸쫽,닺돶1197015541520176캪볬퇩컈붡탔(Robu뗄뛾듎쟷쫆(6116)(1183)(7179)(15120)st),CGG볈폃GDP쯵복횸쫽튲폃CPI뗄쯵복횸쫽볆쯣춨믵엲헍,늢폃뛾GDP쯵복횸쫽,쪧튵2101015641420173듎쟷쫆램뫍CBO램럖뇰맀볆쇋잱퓚닺돶좱뿚싊쟷쫆(7108)(1137)(10105)(14160),쯻쏇뮹뎢쫔쇋폃쪧튵싊욫샫쪱볤쟷쫆뗄샫닮살쳦듺CGG(2000)뗄볬퇩뷡맻퓚놾훊짏폫첩샕' 1994-2008 China Academic Journal Electronic Publishing House. All rights reserved.
20닆뺭컊쳢퇐뺿ꆡꆡ2005쓪뗚8웚ꆡꆡퟜ뗚261웚(1999b)뗄볬퇩뷡맻럇뎣쿠쯆,솽헟뛔춨믵엲헍EconomicPolicyResearchDiscussionPaper,뫍닺돶좱뿚쾵쫽뗄맀볆뷡맻1999,No121781,뚼쫇컖뛻뿋2룱쇖쮹엋쪱웚[4]Levin,Andrew,VolkerWieland,andJohn(1979Q321996Q4)듳폚잰컖뛻뿋쪱웚C1Williams1RobustnessofSimplePolicyRulesunder(1960Q121979Q2)ꆣ춨믵엲헍싊뗄맀볆쾵쫽ꛕ퓚잰컖뛻뿋쪱웚킡폚ModelUncertainty[M]1InTaylor,J1B1(Ed1),1,퓚컖뛻뿋2룱쇖쮹엋쪱웚퓲쏷쿔듳폚MonetaryPolicyRules1UniversityofChicagoPress,1ꆣ좻뛸,폫첩샕틔벰Judd뫍Chicago,19991Rudebusch뗄뷡맻늻춬뗄쫇,CGG뗃떽뗄컖뛻뿋2[5]ꆡClarida,Richard,JordiGali,andMarkGertler1Monetary룱쇖쮹엋쪱웚뗄닺돶좱뿚쾵쫽늢늻쿔훸ꆣ폫PolicyandMacroeconomicStability:EvidenceandSomeJudd뫍Rudebusch뗄뷡맻쿠춬뗄쫇,뫳튻웚뗄욽Theory[J]1TheQuarterlyJournalofEconomics,2000,115뮬솦뛈퓶볓쇋ꆣCao뗈죋(2000)뛔1988ꆪ1998(1):147-661쓪볤뗄볓쓃듳뺭볃ퟶ쇋튻룶샠쯆폚CGG뗄맦퓲[6]ꆡJudd,JohnP1andGlennD1Rudebusch1TaylorꆯsRule맀볆andtheFed:1970-1997[J]1FRBSREconomicReview,,쯻쏇랢쿖쇋볓쓃듳듦퓚샻싊욽뮬탐캪(쾵쫽캪0181998,3:3-161)뗄횤뻝;폫CGG뗄뷡맻쿠랴뗄쫇,쯻쏇뗄닺돶좱뿚쾵쫽뫜쿔훸늢쟒뷓뷼폚[7]ꆡRudebusch,GlennD1IstheFedtooTimid?MonetaryPolicy1ꆣinanUncertainWorld[J]1ꆱReviewofEconomicsandCGG뗄맀볆뷡맻뛔폚볛룱뫍잱퓚닺돶뗄뫢솿냬램튲뻟폐쏴룐탔Statistics,2001,83(2):203-171,듓잱퓚닺돶뗄CBO램떽닺돶뗄뛾듎쟷쫆램퓙떽쪧튵싊쟷쫆[8]ꆡRapach,DavidE1andChristianE1Weber1AreReal,ꛕ뫍ꛂ뗄맀볆InterestRatesReallyNonstationary?[J]1Seattle뷡맻훰붥복킡ꆣ쪵볊짏,뛔튻킩잱퓚닺돶뗄뚨틥UniversityWorkingPaper,(June),20011퓚춳볆짏늢늻쿔훸ꆣ떱폃CPI쯵복횸쫽듺쳦GDP[9]ꆡMcCallum,BennettT1andEdwardNelson1Performanceof뗄쯵복횸쫽뫳,ꛕ뗄맀볆뷡맻쎻폐뛠짙뇤뮯,뛸ꛂOperationalPolicyRulesinanEstimatedSemiclassical뗄맀볆횵좴쿔훸퓶볓ꆣStructuralModel[M]1InTaylor,J1B1(Ed1),MonetaryPolicy폫[6]Judd뫍Rudebusch뗄맀볆뷡맻늻춬,Rules1UniversityofChicagoPress,Chicago,19991CGG뗄욽뮬쿮ꛑ튪듳뗄뛠[10]ꆡRudebusch,GlennD1andLarsE1O1Svensson1Policy,헢틢캶ퟅ샻싊뛔춨헍싊뫍닺돶좱뿚뗄랴펦뇈뷏킡ꆣ펦룃잿뗷뗄쫇RulesforInflationTargeting[M]1InTaylor,J1B1,헢훖동뮺뗄랴펦쫇샻싊욽뮬탍맦퓲(Ed1),MonetaryPolicyRules1UniversityofChicago(interest2rate2Press:Chicago,19991smoothingtyperules)뗄쓚퓚쳘탔,맊헢킩맦퓲늻쓜폫탎죧[11]ꆡBatini,NicolettaandAndrewG1Haldane1Forward-(311)쪽뗄믹놾첩샕맦퓲횱뷓뇈뷏ꆣLookingRulesforMonetaryPolicy[M]1Taylor:J1B1뺡맜첩샕[12]ꆢ[6]Judd뫍Rudebusch틔벰(Ed1),MonetaryPolicyRules1UniversityofChicagoCGG[5]뗄맀볆뷡맻폐쏷쿔뗄닮틬,떫폐튻뗣쪮럖Press:Chicago,19991쟥돾,벴뛔믵뇒헾닟맦퓲뗄샺쪷맀볆뷡맻횤쏷:퓚[12]ꆡTaylor,JohnB1AHistoricalAnalysisofMonetaryPolicy랴춨헍쪱웚,쏀맺뗄믵뇒헾닟훘뗣랢짺쇋틆,퓚Rules[M]1InTaylor,J1B1(Ed1),MonetaryPolicy뫜듳돌뛈짏웤쯻맺볒튲쫇죧듋ꆣ헢튻뗣뿉틔놻튻Rules1UniversityofChicagoPress,Chicago,19991룶쫂쪵쯹횤쏷[13]Sack,BrianandVolkerWieland1Interest2RateSmoothing:벴20쫀볍80쓪듺훁90쓪듺돵웚뗄춨헍맀볆쾵쫽퓶듳쇋andOptimalMonetaryPolicy:AReviewofRecent,늻춬뗄퇐뺿뚼뗃돶쇋헢튻뷡싛ꆣEmpiricalEvidence[J]1FinanceandEconomicsDiscussionSeries,1999-39,FederalReserveBoard,(August)1닎뾼컄쿗[14]ꆡWilliams,JohnC1SimpleRulesforMonetaryPolicy:[J]1FinanceandEconomicsDiscussionSeries,1999-[1]ꆡTaylor,JohnB119931Discretionversuspolicyrulesin12,FederalReserveBoard,(February)1practice[J]1Carnegie2RochesterConferenceSerieson[15]ꆡClarida,Richard,JordiGali,andMarkGertler1MonetaryPublicPolicy,1993139:195-2141policyrulesinpracticeSomeinternationalevidence[J]1[2]ꆡKozicki,Sharon1HowUsefulAreTaylorRulesforMonetaryEuropeanEconomicReview42(6):1033-671Policy?[J]1EconomicReview,FederalReserveBankofKansasCity1EconomicReview1999,No184(2):5-331(퓰죎뇠벭:퇮좫즽)[3]ꆡFavero,CarloA1andRiccardoRovelli1ModelingandIdentifyingCentralBanksꆯPreferences[J]1Centrefor' 1994-2008 China Academic Journal Electronic Publishing House. All rights reserved.
