ꆡꆡꆡꆡꆡꆡꆡꆡꆡꆡꆡꆡꆡ즽/컷/닆/뺭/듳/톧/톧/놨ꆡꆡꆡꆡꆡꆡꆡꆡꆡꆡꆡꆡꆡ2007쓪8퓂JournalofShanXiFinanceandEconomicsUniversityAug.,2007뗚29뻭뗚8웚맺쏱뺭볃맜샭횧돶퓶뎤풤웚뛔뻓쏱쿻럑뫍뒢탮뗄펰쿬럖컶ꆪꆪꆪ볦움풤럀탔뒢탮샭싛뗄늻ퟣ싦퇗(맣뚫짌톧풺뷰죚톧풺,맣뚫맣훝510320)[햪ꆡ튪]룹뻝풤럀탔뒢탮샭싛,풤럀탔뚯믺쫇뻓쏱뒢탮퓶볓뗄쿔훸풭틲ꆣ떫쫇,맺쓚췢뗄늿럖쪵횤럖컶뇭쏷,풤럀탔뚯믺뗄잿뛈늢늻쿔훸ꆣ캪듋,퓚풤럀탔뒢탮샭싛뗄믹뒡짏쳡돶,캴살횧돶퓶볓뗄풤웚쫇떼훂뻓쏱뒢탮쳡룟뗄훘튪풭틲ꆣ캪쇋듙뷸쿻럑뛔뺭볃뗄삭뚯ퟷ폃,펦룃닉좡듫쪩틖훆뷌폽ꆢ힡랿뫍튽쇆놣붡뗈쿻럑볛룱뗄맽뿬퓶뎤,춬쪱,펦룃쳡룟뻓쏱뗄뿉횧엤쫕죫,붡좫짧믡놣헏훆뛈뫍쳥쾵ꆣ[맘볼듊]횧돶퓶뎤풤웚;ꆡ풤럀탔뒢탮;ꆡ뻓쏱쿻럑[훐춼럖샠뫅]ꆡꆡꆡꆡ[컄쿗뇪쪶싫]Aꆡꆡꆡꆡꆡꆡ[컄헂뇠뫅]1007-9556(2007)08-0033-06AnalysisontheExpectationoftheIncreasingExpenditureonResidentsꆯConsumptionsandSavingsꆪꆪꆪOntheDefectofthePrecautionaryTheoryLUOZuo-yan(FinancialSchool,GuangdongUniversityofBusinessStudies,Guangzhou510320,China)Abstract:Accordingtotheprecautionarytheory,theprecautionarymotiveisthemaincausetoinducetheincreaseofresidentsꆯ,thispapersuggeststheexpectationoftheincreaseonresidentsꆯ,theauthorsuggestsactionsshouldbetakentocon2trolthesoaringincreaseinsuchconsumptionsashousing,educationandmedicaltreatment,:theexpectationoftheincreaseofresidentsꆯconsumption;precautionarysavings;residentsꆯconsumptionꆡꆡ튻ꆢ풤럀탔뒢탮뚯믺늻쓜췪좫뷢쫍뒢탮뗄퓶뎤럑싊캪5818%,2003쓪뗄ퟮ훕쿻럑싊캪5514%,튻뛎쪱웚틔살,뻓쏱쿻럑쟣쿲늻뛏붵뗍,뒢탮쟣2004쓪쿂붵떽53%,풶풶뗍폚랢듯맺볒70%뗄쮮욽쿲늻뛏쳡룟ꆣ돇헲뻓쏱쿻럑쟣쿲1990쓪훁2002쓪(싦퇗,2005)ꆣ쿠뇈횮쿂,훐맺룼쫇튻룶틔춶캪틀듎캪8417%ꆢ8515%ꆢ8215%ꆢ8119%ꆢ8116%ꆢ훷떼뗄뺭볃짧믡,헢뻍쿞훆쇋쿻럑뛔뺭볃뗄삭뚯ퟷ8216%ꆢ8110%ꆢ8111%ꆢ7918%ꆢ7819%ꆢ7916%ꆢ폃ꆣ듓뻓쏱뒢탮ꋙ햼떱쓪뿉횧엤쫕죫뗄뇈샽살뾴7713%ꆢ7813%,얩듥뻓쏱쿻럑쟣쿲1990쓪훁2002(쪹폃죋뻹횸뇪볆쯣),1990ꆫ2004쓪룃뇈샽럖뇰캪쓪틀듎캪8512%ꆢ8715%ꆢ8411%ꆢ8315%ꆢ8313%ꆢ1510%ꆢ1314%ꆢ1617%ꆢ1713%ꆢ1717%ꆢ1712%ꆢ8311%ꆢ8116%ꆢ7714%ꆢ7316%ꆢ7114%ꆢ7411%ꆢ1817%ꆢ2016%ꆢ2219%ꆢ2412%ꆢ2215%ꆢ3817%ꆢ7316%ꆢ7411%ꆣ훐맺1993ꆫ2002쓪뗄욽뻹ퟮ훕쿻2310%ꆢ2410%ꆢ2413%,뒢탮쟣쿲늻뛏퓶볓뗄쟷쫆[쫕룥죕웚]2007-06-15[ퟷ헟볲뷩]싦퇗(1968-),쓐,뫾쓏쿘죋,맣뚫짌톧풺뷰죚톧풺뢱뷌쫚,뺭볃톧늩쪿,퇐뺿랽쿲쫇뷰죚쫐뎡샭싛ꆢ쿻럑샭싛ꆢ짧믡놣헏샭싛벰뺭볃쮼쿫쪷ꆣꆤ33ꆤ
ꆡꆡꆡꆡꆡꆡꆡꆡꆡꆡꆡꆡꆡ즽/컷/닆/뺭/듳/톧/톧/놨ꆡꆡꆡꆡꆡꆡꆡꆡꆡꆡꆡꆡꆡ2007쓪8퓂JournalofShanXiFinanceandEconomicsUniversityAug.,2007뗚29뻭뗚8웚뫜쏷쿔(볻춼1)ꆣ듳훐돇쫐뗄퓂뛈쫽뻝뷸탐쪵횤럖컶뫳죏캪,35룶듳훐돇쫐뻓쏱뗄쿠뛔뷷짷쾵쫽캪,돇쫐뻓쏱쯤좻듦퓚풤럀탔뒢탮,떫풤럀탔뚯믺늢늻쫇럇뎣잿쇒ꆣ평폚풤럀탔뒢탮샭싛훷튪듓쫕죫뗄뷇뛈뷢쫍뒢탮퓶뎤,늢쟒폫쪵횤럖컶뷡싛쿠쎬뛜,틲뛸,쯼늻쓜췪좫춼1ꆡ뻓쏱뒢탮쟣쿲(ratiops)뫍쿻럑쟣쿲(ratiopc)뇤뮯춼뷢쫍뻓쏱뒢탮퓶뎤뗄풭틲ꆣ뛔폚뒢탮뗄퓶볓뫍뒢탮쟣쿲뗄쳡룟,탭뛠컄쿗뛾ꆢ캴살횧돶퓶뎤뗄풤웚듙쪹뻓쏱퓶볓뒢탮듓쿻럑뗄뷇뛈뷸탐쇋퇐뺿ꆣ웤훐,튻킩컄쿗냑풭틲뛔폚헢훖쿖쿳,놾컄죏캪,풤럀탔뒢탮샭싛쓜릻맩뷡캪,퓚맬쪱웚뻓쏱쏦쇙뗄늻좷뚨탔퓶잿쯹떼늿럖뷢쫍뻓쏱쿻럑쟣쿲쿂붵뫍뒢탮쟣쿲쳡룟뗄풭훂뗄풤럀탔뒢탮퓶볓뫍쇷뚯탔풼쫸쿞훆쇋뻓쏱쿻틲,떫쫇쯼늻쓜췪좫뷢쫍뻓쏱뒢탮퓶뎤뗄풭틲ꆣ뾼럑,헢킩퇐뺿틔풤럀탔뒢탮샭싛캪믹뒡ꆣ쇺횾뫍싇떽뷼쓪살뻓쏱퓚뷌폽ꆢ튽쇆놣붡뫍힡랿죽랽쏦쿻(2000)틔1991ꆫ1998쓪럖뗘쟸뗄뷘쏦쫽뻝캪퇹놾뷸럑횧돶늻뛏퓶뎤뗄ힴ뿶,놾컄죏캪,뻓쏱뛔캴살횧돶탐럖컶뫳랢쿖,폃살뫢솿풤럀탔뒢탮뗄쿠뛔뷷짷쾵퓶뎤뗄풤웚,튲쫇듙쪹뻓쏱퓶볓뒢탮뗄훘튪풭틲ꆣ쫽듯떽,듓뛸죏캪뻓쏱풤럀탔뒢탮뚯믺뛔뒢횮쯹틔쳡돶헢룶펰쿬틲쯘,쫇믹폚벸뗣샭평ꆣ뗚튻,탮뗄펰쿬쫇쿔훸뗄ꆣ췴뫬뻔(2002)죏캪,훆뛈뇤룯풤럀탔뒢탮샭싛훷튪쫇듓쫕죫늨뚯뗄뷇뛈(냼삨쪧퓶볓쇋쿻럑헟뗄늻좷뚨탔,늻좷뚨탔뫍쇷뚯탔풼쫸튵)살럖컶뻓쏱뒢탮뗄뚯믺,뛸쎻폐뾼싇떽뻓쏱캴살뗄퓶잿쫇뻓쏱쿻럑쟣쿲쿂붵뗄훷튪풭틲ꆣ뛅몣횧돶퓶뎤뛔뒢탮뗄펰쿬ꆣ탱뫣(2001)죏캪,죧맻(2005)죏캪,20쫀볍90쓪듺훐웚틔살,돖탸ퟟ뗍뗄폃쫕죫뗄늻좷뚨탔살뮮럖룷훖풤럀탔뒢탮샭싛,쓇쫕죫퓶뎤싊횱뷓틖훆쇋쿻럑탨쟳뗄퓶뎤,죔좻욫뷴쎴폐뛠짙룶맘폚쫕죫늻좷뚨탔뗄볙짨,뻍폐뛠짙훖뗄쇷뚯탔풼쫸뫍죕틦퓶잿뗄늻좷뚨탔쳡룟쇋풤럀탔맘폚풤럀탔뒢탮뗄샭싛ꆣ헢뇭쏷,풤럀탔뒢탮샭싛뒢탮뚯믺ꆣ떫쫇,듓웤쯻튻킩퇐뺿살뾴,풤럀탔뒢탮훷튪퇐뺿뗄쫇쫕죫늨뚯뛔쿻럑뫍뒢탮뗄펰쿬,뻟폐샭싛뛔뻓쏱뒢탮퓶뎤뗄뷢쫍솦늢늻잿ꆣDynan욬쏦탔ꆣ훬쿜뎽(2001)퇐뺿죏캪,쫇돇헲뻓쏱횧돶(1993)쒣탍뛔풤럀탔뚯믺뗄쿔훸탔쳡돶쇋틉컊,룃뷡릹풤웚뛸늻쫇쫕죫풤웚,쪹뇟볊쿻럑쟣쿲랢짺쇋쒣탍죏캪,풤럀탔뒢탮퓚볒춥ퟜ뒢탮훐횻햼떽튻룶뇤뮯,헢쫇뛔풤럀탔뒢탮샭싛쳡돶뗄랴싛,쮵쏷횧돶뫜킡뗄뇈샽,늻쫇쿻럑헟탐캪훐뗄훘튪늿럖ꆣ룃쒣풤웚뗄좷뛔뻓쏱뒢탮닺짺쇋펰쿬ꆣ뗚뛾,폐맘뗷닩탍뗄퇐뺿뷡맻뇭쏷,쿻럑헟뗄뷷짷뛈ꛑ킡폚뛠쫽퇐컊뻭뇭쏷,뷌폽횧돶쫇뻓쏱뷸탐뒢탮뗄훘튪풭틲ꆣ뺿뗄뷡싛,폫맣랺뷓쫜뗄럧쿕퇡뛱맛뗣늻튻훂ꆣ퓚맺볒춳볆뻖돇뗷ퟜ뛓뗄뗷닩뷡맻쿔쪾,퓚뻓쏱10폠맣랺쪹폃뗄뎣쿠뛔럧쿕몯쫽훐ꛑ,펦룃퓚2ꆫ5횮훖뒢탮쒿뗄훐,냑ꆰퟓ얮뷌폽ꆱ냚퓚쫗캻뗄볒춥ퟮ뛠,볤ꆣ떫쫇,Dynan뛔ꛑ뗄맀볆횵ퟮ룟캪,늢쟒듯떽%;업퓚뗚뛾캻뗄뒢탮쒿뗄쫇ꆰ퇸샏ꆱ,톡퓚95%뗄룅싊쿂ꛑ뗄뇤뚯뒦퓚ꆫ횮퓱싊캪%ꆣ룹뻝훐맺죋쏱틸탐뗄뗷닩,2003쓪볤ꆣ캪쇋뷢쫍헢룶쿖쿳,Dynan뾼달쇋볒춥쇷뚯탔뗚1벾뛈,뻓쏱뗄헻쳥쿻럑틢풸욽떭,떫뷌폽쿻럑췺풼쫸뫍럧쿕뮷뺳뗄톡퓱뛔풤럀탔뚯믺뗄펰쿬ꆣ퓚뾼쫆늻복,폐%뗄뻓쏱뒢탮뚯믺쫇ꆰ퓜뷌폽럑ꆱ,싇쇷뚯탔풼쫸횮뫳랢쿖,폐뷏뛠닆뢻뗄볒춥뷷짷쾵컈뻓뻓쏱뒢탮뚯믺뗄쫗캻ꆣ2004쓪뗚4벾뛈뗄컊쫽쿠뛔뷏룟;퓚뾼싇톡퓱킧펦횮뫳랢쿖,뛔폚튻룶룸뻭뇭쏷ꆰ,퓜뷌폽럑ꆱ죔쫇뻓쏱뒢탮뗄쫗튪쒿뗄,뷓쿂뚨뗄쫕죫늻좷뚨탔쮮욽,럧쿕퇡뛱뗄볒춥붫톡퓱뷸살틀듎쫇ꆰ퇸샏ꆱꆰꆢ싲랿ힰ탞ꆱ뫍ꆰ풤럀틢췢ꆱ,쯼쏇햼탐룼뛠뗄뒢탮ꆣ뾼싇떽짏쫶킧펦횮뫳,Dynan뛔쿠뇈럖뇰캪%ꆢ%ꆢ%뫍%ꆣ뗚죽,뛔뷷짷쾵쫽뗄맀볆죔좻뷓뷼폚0ꆣ췲맣뮪(2001)뗄돇헲뫍얩듥뻓쏱뗄뛷룱뛻쾵쫽늻뛏붵뗍,뇭쏷뷌폽ꆢ쪵횤럖컶뇭쏷,폃살뫢솿늻좷뚨탔Var(ꚤC)t뗄쾵쫽튽쇆ꆢ힡랿죽쿮횧돶퓚뻓쏱쿻럑횧돶훐뗄훘튪탔퓚1961ꆫ1983쓪캪-0101465,1984ꆫ1998쓪캪훰늽퓶잿ꆣ돇헲뻓쏱뛷룱뛻쾵쫽1990쓪캪%,-0118353ꆣ쯤좻듓쾵쫽뗄뇤뮯뾴,뻓쏱쏦쇙뗄늻1999쓪캪%,2000ꆫ2004쓪럖뇰캪3914%ꆢ좷뚨탔퓶잿쇋,떫쫇헢킩쾵쫽횵늢늻듳,쮵쏷늻좷뚨3812%ꆢ3717%ꆢ3711%ꆢ3717%ꆣ얩듥뻓쏱뛷룱뛻쾵탔뛔뒢탮퓶뎤뗄뷢쫍솦뛈풶늻벰뻓쏱쫕죫뗈틲쯘ꆣ쫽1990쓪캪5818%,1999쓪캪5216%,2000ꆫ2004쪩붨뮴(2004)닉폃1999쓪1퓂떽2003쓪3퓂35룶쓪럖뇰캪4911%ꆢ4717%ꆢ4612%ꆢ4516%ꆢ4712%ꆣꆤ34ꆤ
ꆡꆡꆡꆡꆡꆡꆡꆡꆡꆡꆡꆡꆡ즽/컷/닆/뺭/듳/톧/톧/놨ꆡꆡꆡꆡꆡꆡꆡꆡꆡꆡꆡꆡꆡ2007쓪8퓂JournalofShanXiFinanceandEconomicsUniversityAug.,2007뗚29뻭뗚8웚뗚쯄,샻폃삩햹뗄쿟탔횧돶쾵춳ELES뷸탐럖컶뫳죽ꆢ냼몬횧돶풤웚틲쯘뗄쿻럑쒣탍뇭쏷,뻓쏱퓚뷌폽ꆢ튽쇆놣붡뫍힡랿뗈랽쏦뗄믹놾쿻룹뻝짺쏼훜웚뫍돖뻃쫕죫볙쮵,쿻럑헟ힷ쟳킧럑탨쟳퓚늻뛏짏짽(싦퇗,2006)ꆣ뗚컥,쿠맘쫽뻝폃ퟮ듳뮯뗄슷뺶뿉틔폃죧쿂릫쪽쏨쫶:뇭쏷,죽쿮횧돶벰웤햼ퟜ횧돶뗄뇈샽퓚늻뛏짏짽,웤maxꇆE(u(c)t/(1+ꛑt))(1)볛룱횸쫽튲퓚늻뛏짏짽ꆣ듓뇭1뿉틔뾴돶,죽쿮횧볈뚨뗄풼쫸쳵볾캪:돶뗄뻸뛔쫽벸뫵틔횱쿟탎쪽짏짽,햼뻓쏱쿻럑횧돶At+1=(1+r)At+yt+1-ct+1(2)뗄뇈샽튲돊쿖짏짽쟷쫆ꆣ뻓힡횧돶햼뻓쏱쿻럑뗄뇈웤훐,ꛑ캪쪱볤욫뫃쾵쫽,At캪t웚뗄닆닺,yt훘듓1993쓪뗄10%퓶볓떽2000쓪뗄12%,2001쓪캪샍뚯쫕죫,r캪뷰뗄믘놨싊,볙뚨룃믘놨싊룷웚뾪쪼룃뇈훘폐캢죵뗄쿂붵,떫믹놾컈뚨퓚12%ퟳ폒쿠뗈ꆣ샻폃뚯첬ퟮ폅뗄놴뛻싼랽돌쟳뷢쒣탍,뛔펦뗄쮮욽;뷌폽쿻럑햼뻓쏱쿻럑뗄뇈훘ퟮ룟,듓1993뗄튻뷗쳵볾캪:쓪뗄8%퓶볓떽2004쓪뗄13146%,퓶뎤쟷쫆뫜쏷uꇤ(ct+1)=[(1+ꛑ)/(1+r)]uꇤ(c)(t3)쿔;튽쇆놣붡횧돶햼뻓쏱쿻럑뗄뇈샽듓1993쓪뗄볙뚨킧폃몯쫽캪만뚨럧쿕맦뇜탍,벴:3106%짏짽떽2004쓪뗄6193%ꆣu(c)t=(1-ꛈ)ct/(1-ꛈ),ꛈ>0ꋚ(4)뇭1ꆡ죽쿮횧돶벰웤햼뻓쏱쿻럑(죋뻹횸뇪)뗄뇈훘뛔(4)쪽쟳떼쫽늢듺죫(3)쪽,춬쪱랽돌솽뇟좡쿮쒿뻓힡(풪)튽쇆놣붡(풪)뷌폽(풪)뻓힡햼뇈(%)튽놣햼뇈(%)뷌폽햼뇈(%)뛔쫽,뗃떽:ꚤ+1=ꛁ1+ꛂ1rt+1+ꛅt+1(5)퓚(5)쪽훐,ꚤct+1=lnct+1-lnct,rt+1ꇖln(1++1)ꆣꋛ룹뻝짺쏼훜웚뫍돖뻃쫕죫볙쮵,쿻럑뗄뇤뮯횻폫놾웚샻싊쿠맘,폫놾웚쫕죫뗄뇤뮯늻쿠맘ꆣ떫쫇쪵횤럖컶좴뇭쏷,쿻럑뛔쫕죫듦퓚ꆰ맽뛈쏴룐탔ꆱ(Flavin,1981)뫍ꆰ맽뛈욽뮬탔ꆱꆣ평폚샭탔풤웚볙쮵늻쓜뫜뫃뗘뷢쫍듦퓚럧쿕뫍탅듻쫐뎡늻췪짆쟩뿶쿂뗄쿻럑탐캪,캪듋,뾲놴뛻뫍싼쟰쳡돶쇋튻룶쯹캽뗄ꛋ볙쮵(CampbellandMankiw,1991)ꆣꛋ볙쮵볙짨뺭ꆡꆡ힢:1993쓪잰뫳뗄횧돶릹돉랢짺쇋뇤뮯,평폚늻쓜춳튻뿚뺶,틲듋놾뇭쎻폐헻샭볃훐듦퓚솽샠쿻럑헟:뗚튻샠쿻럑헟내헕LCH톡퓱1993쓪틔잰뗄쫽뻝;좫맺뻓쏱쫽뻝평돇헲뻓쏱뫍얩듥뻓쏱룷횸뇪(틔돇헲뫍얩듥뻓쏱뗄죋뿚뇈훘캪좨훘)볓ퟜ볆쯣뗃쿻럑슷뺶(샭탔쿻럑헟);뗚뛾샠쿻럑헟내헕떱웚쫕떽;뻓힡쿻럑햼뇈=뻓힡/뻓쏱뗄쿻럑횧돶,웤쯻틀듋샠췆;뻓힡ꆢ튽죫살좷뚨쿻럑(뛌쫓탍쿻럑헟),뗚뛾샠쿻럑헟쯹햼쇆놣붡ꆢ뷌폽횧돶벰쿻럑뻹닉폃죋뻹횸뇪ꆣ뇈훘캪ꛋꆣ뗚튻샠쿻럑헟뗄쿻럑몯쫽싺ퟣ(5)쪽:쫽뻝살풴:룷웚ꆶ훐맺춳볆쓪본ꆷꚤc1,t+1=(1-ꛋ)ꛁ1,1+(1-ꛋ)ꛂ1,1rt+1+(1-틲듋ꛋ)ꛅt+1(6),놾컄죏캪,틽죫뻓쏱횧돶퓶뎤풤웚,뛔럖컶뻓쏱뒢탮뫍쿻럑폐튻뚨틢틥ꆣ훬쿜뎽뗚뛾샠쿻럑헟뗄쿻럑몯쫽죧쿂:(2001)뗄퇐뺿쳡돶쇋횧돶풤웚뛔쿻럑뗄펰쿬,룃퇐뺿훷튪쫇춨ꚤc2,t+1=ꛁ2+ꛂ2ꚤyt+1+ꛅt+1(7)맽훍뫳뗄뿉횧엤쫕죫뫍쿻럑살쒣쓢뻓쏱풤웚뗄뿉횧퓚헢샯,ꚤct+1=lnꚤct+1-lnct,ꚤyt+1=lnyt+1-엤쫕죫lnytꆣꋜ붫(6)쪽뫍(7)쪽뷸탐볓ퟜ,뗃떽ퟜ뗄쿻럑몯,좻뫳럖솽룶뷗뛎틔쒣쓢뗄풤웚뿉횧엤쫕죫캪훷튪뷢쫍뇤솿뛔뻓쏱쿻럑뷸탐뷢쫍ꆣ웤뷡싛쫇쫽캪:,1993쓪틔뫳뻓쏱뗄뇟볊쿻럑쟣쿲훰늽쿂붵ꚤc,횧돶뷡t+1=ꛁ2+ꛂ2ꚤyt+1+ꛇ2rr+1+ꛅt+1(8)릹풤웚쪹뻓쏱쿻럑뷡릹랢짺쇋뇤뮯ꆣ떫쫇,룃퇐뺿룹뻝Dynan(1993)쒣탍,뿉틔폃쿂쪽살닢뛈뷷짷쎻폐뻟쳥럖컶뻓쏱쿻럑뷡릹훐룷쿮횧돶뗄쪱볤뇤뮯탔뚯믺뗄잿뛈:쟷쫆틔벰룷쿮횧돶폫뻓쏱뒢탮횮볤뗄맘쾵ꆣ놾컄횱avg(GC)i=ꛁ3+ꛂ3avg(GC2)i+ꛅ(i9)뷓듓뻓쏱뷌폽ꆢ힡랿뫍튽쇆놣붡죽쿮횧돶뗄뷇뛈돶웤훐,GC2=E2t[((ct+1-c)t/c)t]ꆣ캪쇋폫(5)랢,뷡뫏웤쯻펰쿬틲쯘,럖컶쇋횧돶퓶뎤뗄풤웚뛔뻓쪽뫍(8)쪽뗄뇤솿몬틥놣돖튻훂,퓚뫢솿늻좷뚨탔쪱쏱쿻럑뫍뒢탮뗄펰쿬ꆣ헢샯튲폃쿻럑뗄뛔쫽횵듺쳦쿻럑뗄쮮욽횵,벴:ꆤ35ꆤ
ꆡꆡꆡꆡꆡꆡꆡꆡꆡꆡꆡꆡꆡ즽/컷/닆/뺭/듳/톧/톧/놨ꆡꆡꆡꆡꆡꆡꆡꆡꆡꆡꆡꆡꆡ2007쓪8퓂JournalofShanXiFinanceandEconomicsUniversityAug.,2007뗚29뻭뗚8웚=E2t[((lnct+1-lnc)t/lnc)t](10)d(log(rate))퓚%뗄쮮욽쿂쿔훸ꆣퟛ뫏(8)쪽뫍(9)쪽뿉뗃떽쿻럑몯쫽쒣탍캪(:죽)맘폚죽쿮횧돶햼뻓쏱쿻럑뇈샽뗄풤웚ꚤc죽쿮횧돶햼뻓쏱쿻럑뇈샽뗄풤웚쫇뷏쓑뛈솿t=ꛁ2+ꛂ2ꚤyt+ꛇ2rt+ꛄavg(GC2)+ꛅ(t11)뾼싇떽컄훐뗚뛾늿럖쳡돶뗄샭평,컒쏇죏캪죽뗄,폈웤쫇퓚볙뚨쿻럑헟쫇샭탔풤웚뗄쿻럑헟쪱,뛈쿮횧돶퓶뎤뗄풤웚쫇펰쿬뻓쏱쿖웚쿻럑뗄훷튪틲솿룼볓삧쓑ꆣ쪵볊짏,샭탔풤웚룼뛠뗘좡뻶폚튻훖쯘ꆣ샻폃풤웚뗄죽쿮횧돶햼뻓쏱쿻럑뗄뇈훘살뇭쪾탄샭룐쫜뫍뛔캴살뗄뾴램,헢훖뾴램뫜쓑퓚쿻럑헟헢룶틲쯘뛔떱웚쿻럑뗄펰쿬,폃ra뗄튻짺훐쪵쿖ꆣ놾컄뷨본쇋뢥샯뗂싼쟳뷢돖뻃쫕죫tiocost살뇭쪾ꆣ헢퇹,쿻럑몯쫽뗄ퟮ훕쒣탍뇤캪뗄랽램(탱뫣뗈,2001),벴::ꚤratiocostct=(realcostt+realcostt-1+realcostt-2)/3t=ꛁ+ꛂꚤyt+ꛇrt+ꛄavg(GC2)+ꛘratiocostt+ꛅ(13)(t12)퓚웤훐,realcost듺뇭룷웚죽쿮횧돶뗄쪵볊뇈샽ꆣ(12)쪽훐,돽쇋샻싊뫍죽쿮횧돶뗄햼뇈틔췢,웤쯻뇤솿뻹닉폃뛔쫽탎쪽ꆣ떫쫇탨튪힢틢뗄쫇,퓚ratiocost듓웤놾틢짏붲펦캪샭탔풤웚,떫퓚쪵볊뒦쪵횤럖컶쫽뻝쪱,평폚쿻럑ꆢ쫕죫ꆢ샻싊뗈뇤솿늻튻샭맽돌훐튻냣닉좡쫊펦탔풤웚뗄퇐뺿랽램,웤뇤뮯뚨싺ퟣ탲쇐욽컈탔쳵볾,틲듋(12)쪽훐뇤솿뗄몬틥쟷쫆볻춼2ꆣ믡랢짺뇤뮯ꆣ쯄ꆢ쫽뻝살풴ꆢ쫽뻝뒦샭뫍쫽뻝쮵쏷(튻)쫽뻝살풴놾컄쫽뻝훷튪살풴폚ꆶ훐맺춳볆쓪본ꆷ(1990ꆫ2005쓪),쫽뻝뢲룇1990ꆫ2004쓪ꆣ웤훐,좫맺뻓쏱뷌폽ꆢ힡랿뫍튽쇆놣붡죽쿮횧돶뗄쫽뻝쫇룹뻝돇헲춼2ꆡ횧돶퓶뎤풤웚뗄쟷쫆춼뻓쏱뫍얩듥뻓쏱룷쿠펦횸뇪틔돇헲뫍얩듥뻓쏱뗄죋컥ꆢ뛔냼몬횧돶풤웚쒣탍뗄쪵횤럖컶뿚햼뇈캪좨훘볆쯣돶살뗄ꆣ1993쓪횮뫳죽쿮횧돶평폚(12)쪽훐avg(GC2)폫ꚤct횮볤듦퓚쿠맘뗄춳볆뿚뺶랢짺뷏듳뇤뮯,캪쇋놣횤쫽뻝뗄뿉뇈탔맘쾵,틲듋,룃쒣탍뗄쒣쓢닐닮듦퓚ퟔ쿠맘컊쳢ꆣ캪,룃쫽뻝쟸볤좡쇋뿋럾헢훖펰쿬,퓚쒣쓢랽돌훐볓죫닐닮뗄ퟔ믘맩1993ꆫ2004쓪,웤쯻쫽뻝쟸볤좡1990ꆫ쿮ꆣ평폚랽돌뇤솿짦벰떽뗄쪱볤뿧뛈횻폐15쓪,퓚2004쓪ꆣ(뛾)쫽뻝욽컈탔뒦샭15쓪쓚훐맺뺭볃뷡릹쎻폐랢짺듳뗄뇤뮯,틲듋놾컄쫽뻝횮볤뗄쓢뫏뇘탫튪놣돖욽컈탔,럱퓲뿉쓜늻뷸탐쒣탍컈뚨탔볬퇩ꆣ닺짺캱믘맩컊쳢ꆣ냑(튻)냼몬avg(GC2)쿮뗄쒣쓢랽돌(12)쪽훐뗄뇤솿뾴ퟷ쮮욽횵,춨맽볬퇩랢쿖헢킩뇤솿뻹늻싺ퟣ욽컈탔쳵볾ꆣ럖뇰뺭맽쒣쓢뗃떽죧쿂랽돌:뛔d(ꚤc)t=1127d(ꚤy)t-0103d(log(rate))-(12)쪽훐뗄쿻럑ꆢ뻓쏱뿉횧엤쫕죫뫍늻좷뚨탔뇤솿(틑뺭좡뛔쫽횵)쟳튻뷗닮럖,랢쿖헢킩탲쇐쫇욽2103avg(GC2)-0102log(ratiocost)t-0103+[AR컈뗄ꆣ뛔풤웚뗄죽쿮횧돶햼뻓쏱쿻럑뗄뇈샽쟳뛔(1)=-0184](14)쫽(14)쪽훐,R2=019497,F횵=19(뷏킡),Prob,룃탲쇐뺭ADF떥캻룹볬퇩뫳죏캪싺ퟣ욽컈탔쳵볾ꆣ뛔샻싊쟳ퟔ좻뛔쫽,닮럖뫳탲쇐욽컈,떫룃탲쇐(F)=010029,쮵쏷쒣탍헻쳥쿔훸ꆣ떫쫇,룃랽돌돽욽컈탔뷏닮쇋뿉횧엤쫕죫뗄쾵쫽T횵뷏쿔훸췢,웤쯻뻹늻쿔훸,,쿔훸탔쮮욽캪%,뷡맻볻뇭2ꆣ뇭2ꆡ룷뇤솿떥캻룹볬퇩뷡맻쿪쾸뷡맻볻뇭3ꆣ폈웤쫇뛈솿풤럀탔뒢탮뚯믺뗄뇤솿샠탍ADF횵1%쇙뷧5%쇙뷧avg(GC2),쾵쫽T횵ퟮ킡,뻜뻸뗄룅싊듯떽95%ꆣ10%쇙뷧뷡싛d(ꚤc)(c,0,2)욽컈헢뇭쏷,듓쫽뻝뗄쓢뫏탔훊뾴,풤럀탔뒢탮뚯믺뛔뻓d(ꚤy)(c,0,2)욽컈쏱쿻럑늻쓜닺짺쏷쿔펰쿬(떱좻헢훖펰쿬뮹쫇듦퓚d(GC2)(c,0,2)욽컈뗄)ꆣ쒳킩쿮뗄쾵쫽T횵킡,떫F횵뗄룅싊싺ퟣ쿔훸log(ratiocost)(c,0,1)욽컈d(log(rate))(c,0,0)믹놾욽컈탔쮮욽,헢훖쟩뿶뇭쏷랽돌뿉쓜듦퓚뛠훘릲쿟탔컊ꆡꆡ힢:(c,0,2)훐뗄2뇭쪾훍뫳2뷗,0뇭쪾컞쟷쫆,c뇭쪾듸뷘뻠쳢,탨튪뛔뇤솿뷸탐쳞돽ꆣ캪쇋쿻돽(14)쪽훐ퟔ쿠쿮ꆣ짏쫶뷡싛돽샻싊횮췢뻹퓚95%뗄쿔훸쮮욽쿂돉솢,샻싊뇤솿맘뗄펰쿬,퓚AR(1)뗄믹뒡짏쳭볓AR(2),떫쫇뷡맻ꆤ36ꆤ
ꆡꆡꆡꆡꆡꆡꆡꆡꆡꆡꆡꆡꆡ즽/컷/닆/뺭/듳/톧/톧/놨ꆡꆡꆡꆡꆡꆡꆡꆡꆡꆡꆡꆡꆡ2007쓪8퓂JournalofShanXiFinanceandEconomicsUniversityAug.,2007뗚29뻭뗚8웚죔좻늻쓜쿻돽ퟔ쿠맘ꆣ뾼싇떽짏쫶쟩뿶,늢뾼싇떼훂쇋뻓쏱쿻럑뗄쫍럅ꆣavg(GC2)뗄쾵쫽T횵ퟮ늻쿔훸,틲듋놾컄즾돽쇋룃쇹ꆢ쪵횤럖컶뗄헾닟몭틥틲쯘뛔뻓쏱쿻럑뗄펰쿬ꆣ퓚ꆶ훐뮪죋쏱릲뫍맺맺쏱뺭볃뫍짧믡랢햹뗚쪮뇭3ꆡ(14)쪽뗄쾵쫽T횵튻룶컥쓪맦뮮룙튪ꆷ뗚뛾헂ꆶ좫쏦맡뎹실쪵뿆톧랢쿮쒿ꛁd(ꚤy)avg(GC2)log(ratiocost)d(log(rate))AR(1)햹맛ꆷ훐쳡돶,튪뷸튻늽삩듳맺쓚탨쟳,퓶볓쿻럑뛔쾵쫽T횵뺭볃퓶뎤뗄삭뚯ퟷ폃ꆣT횵룅싊(튻)틖훆뷌폽ꆢ힡랿뫍튽쇆놣붡뗈쿻럑볛룱뗄맽뿬퓶뎤(뛾)늻냼몬avg(GC2)쿮뗄랽돌쪵횤럖컶뇭쏷,평폚뛔캴살뗄횧돶퓶뎤폐좷뚨쳞돽avg(GC2)쿮횮뫳,캪쇋쿻돽ퟔ쿠맘뗄펰뗄풤웚,틲뛸뻓쏱탄훐폐튻킩뒢탮쒿뇪,헢킩뒢탮쒿쿬,퓚닐닮볙짨훐틽죫AR(1)뫍AR(2),뗃떽뗄쓢뫏뇪웈쪹뻓쏱복짙떱잰쿻럑뛸퓶볓뒢탮ꆣ헢킩쒿뇪냼랽돌죧쿂:삨캪ퟓ얮믽퓜쫜뷌폽럑폃,풤쿈믽샛릺싲힡랿(믲힡d(ꚤc)t=(ꚤy)(log(rate))-랿쫗뢶)럑폃,캪ퟔ벺뗄짺늡뫍퇸샏컊쳢뷸탐뒢탮,0103log(ratiocost)+[AR(1)=,AR뗈뗈ꆣ놾컄죏캪,뷌폽ꆢ힡랿뫍튽쇆놣붡뗈쿻럑볛룱(2)=](15)뗄맽뿬퓶뎤볓뻧쇋뻓쏱뗄헢훖뒢탮탄샭ꆣ듓뷌폽쿻(15)쪽훐,R2=019623,F횵=20,Prob(F)=럑뗄볛룱퓶뎤쟩뿶살뾴,1994ꆫ1997쓪쫇뷏뿬퓶뎤01006,DW=2141,뇭쏷쒣탍헻쳥쿔훸ꆣ룷뇤솿쒣쓢쪱웚,웤퓶뎤뮷뇈럖뇰듯떽2111%ꆢ2214%ꆢ3418%ꆢ쾵쫽뗄T횵믹놾뷓뷼2,뿉횧엤쫕죫쾵쫽뗄T횵풶1711%ꆣ1997쓪틔뫳듳톧뷌폽쪵탐듳맦쒣삩헐,뷌풶뎬맽2ꆣ듓뇭4뿉틔뾴돶,쒣쓢랽돌헻쳥짏뗃떽폽럑폃돶쿖쇋탂뗄뿬쯙짏헇,2000쓪캪715%,2001쇋벫듳룄짆,뿋럾쇋뛠훘릲쿟탔컊쳢ꆣ뛔룃랽돌닐쓪퓶뎤뮷뇈듯떽1316%,웤뫳퓶뎤쯙뛈폐쯹쿂붵,닮뷸탐F춳볆솿볬퇩뇭쏷,랽돌퓚95%뗄쿔훸쮮욽떫죔뒦퓚4%ퟳ폒뗄쮮욽ꆣ듓힡랿ퟢ뷰볛룱헇럹살짏늻듦퓚탲쇐ퟔ쿠맘ꆣ틲듋,놾컄틔(15)쪽뷢쫍횧뾴,1994ꆫ1999쓪돊쿖뿬쯙짏헇,웤볛룱퓶뎤횸쫽럖돶풤웚뛔쿻럑뗄펰쿬ꆣ뇰캪3711%ꆢ3118%ꆢ3412%ꆢ2115%ꆢ1515%ꆢ뇭4ꆡ(15)쪽뗄쾵쫽T횵1017%,2000ꆫ2004쓪짏헇럹뛈폐쯹쿂붵,떫죔퓚뷏쿮쒿ꛁd(ꚤy)log(ratiocost)d(log(rate))AR(1)AR(2)룟캻짏퓋탐,웤퓶뎤뮷뇈럖뇰캪912%ꆢ816%ꆢ쾵쫽T횵%ꆢ315%ꆢ311%ꆣ내헕쫀뷧틸탐뗄뇪ힼ,랢듯맺T횵룅싊볒뗄랿볛쫕죫뇈튻냣퓚118ꆫ515놶횮볤,랢햹훐맺볒뫏샭뗄랿볛쫕죫뇈퓚3ꆫ6놶횮볤,뛸컒맺쒿잰뗄(죽)쪵횤럖컶뗄뷡싛랿볛쫕죫뇈틑뎬맽718놶,짏몣ꆢ놱뺩ꆢ맣훝뗈뗘룼춨맽뛔(14)쪽뫍(15)쪽뗄뇈뷏럖컶랢쿖,풤럀룟,짏몣80욽랽쏗뗄힡햬볛룱쿠떱폚쎿뮧튻쓪뿉횧탔뒢탮뚯믺뛔뻓쏱쿻럑뗄펰쿬늻쿔훸ꆣ퓚펰쿬쿻럑엤쫕죫뗄2715놶ꆣ듓튽쇆놣붡볛룱살뾴,1993ꆫ뗄틲쯘훐,떱웚쫕죫쫇ퟮ훷튪뗄,뛸쟒쿻럑폫쫕죫뗄1996쓪쫇룟쯙퓶뎤웚,퓶뎤뮷뇈럖뇰캪912%ꆢ뇤뮯돊헽쿠맘맘쾵ꆣ춬쪱,샻싊뫍횧돶퓶뎤뗄풤웚1117%ꆢ1113%ꆢ913%,2001ꆫ2004쓪쫇폖튻룶룟쯙뛔쿻럑튲닺짺쇋펰쿬,웤훐,캴살횧돶퓶뎤뗄풤웚뛔퓶뎤쪱웚,퓶뎤뮷뇈럖뇰캪1015%ꆢ812%ꆢ819%ꆢ쿻럑뗄펰쿬쾵쫽캪(룃펰쿬쾵쫽평폚쫇춨맽512%,죽쿮횧돶퓶뎤맬벣볻춼3ꆣ뻓쏱뗄쫕죫믹쫽뛔뇤솿쟳닮럖뫳뗃떽뗄,틲뛸웤뺭볃틢틥늻쫇뫜쏷쿔)ꆣd(ꚤc)t퓚1992쓪틔뫳뗄13쓪훐폐6쓪캪뢺쫽,log(ratiocost)퓚쯹폐쓪럝뻹캪뢺쫽ꆣlog(ratiocost)뗄쾵쫽캪뢺뇭쏷,캴살횧돶퓶뎤뗄풤웚뿉쓜떼훂뻓쏱캪쇋캴살튻뇊좷뚨탔뗄횧돶(죧믽샛ퟣ릻뗄춼3ꆡ힡랿(GPHOUSE)ꆢ뷌폽(GPHE)뫍튽쇆놣붡(GPHC)ퟓ얮뷌폽럑뫍힡랿릺싲럑폃)뛸복짙떱웚쿻럑ꆣ춬볛룱뗄퓶뎤쟺쿟춼퇹뗀샭,샻싊뗄쾵쫽캪,뾼싇떽1990쓪틔살풶킡폚죽쿮횧돶뗄믹쫽,볓횮죽쿮횧돶퓶뎤맽뿬,듙샻싊ퟜ쳥짏돊쿖쿂붵뗄쟷쫆,죏캪샻싊뗄쿂붵뿉쓜쪹뻓쏱복짙떱잰쿻럑뛸퓶볓뒢탮ꆣ뻓쏱웚췻죽쿮횧ꆤ37ꆤ
ꆡꆡꆡꆡꆡꆡꆡꆡꆡꆡꆡꆡꆡ즽/컷/닆/뺭/듳/톧/톧/놨ꆡꆡꆡꆡꆡꆡꆡꆡꆡꆡꆡꆡꆡ2007쓪8퓂JournalofShanXiFinanceandEconomicsUniversityAug.,2007뗚29뻭뗚8웚돶뗄볛룱믲헟퓶뎤쯙뛈쓜릻붵쿂살,헢훖탄샭튲떼(죽)붡좫짧믡놣헏훆뛈뫍쳥쾵훂쇋뻓쏱뒢탮쟣쿲뗄쳡룟ꆣ틲듋,틖훆죽쿮횧돶볛쯤좻놾컄뗄쪵횤럖컶컞램폐킧횧돖뻓쏱풤럀탔룱뗄맽뿬퓶뎤쫇떱잰듙뷸뻓쏱쿻럑뗄맘볼쫖뛎횮뚯믺잿뛈뗄쿔훸탔(폐킩퇐뺿뫍놾컄뗄뷡싛뷓뷼),튻ꆣ떫쫇컒쏇횱뻵죏캪,뷼쓪살뻓쏱뻍튵쓑뛈뗄볓듳틔(뛾)닉좡듫쪩퓶볓뻓쏱뗄뿉횧엤쫕죫벰평듋틽웰뗄쫕죫늨뚯,쪹뻓쏱닺짺쇋튻뚨뗄풤럀놾컄뗄쪵횤럖컶뇭쏷,뻓쏱뿉횧엤쫕죫뛔쿻럑탔뚯믺,듓뛸퓶볓뒢탮ꆣ풬횾룕(1999)죏캪,쫐뎡뮯뗄펰쿬쾵쫽듯떽1131,풶풶뎬맽쇋웤쯻틲쯘뗄펰룄룯늻뷶볓듳쇋뻓쏱쏦쇙뗄쾵춳럧쿕,춬쪱튲볓듳쿬,쮵쏷뻓쏱뿉횧엤쫕죫죔좻쫇뻶뚨뻓쏱쿻럑뗄훷쇋뻓쏱쏦쇙뗄룶쳥럧쿕,돇헲뻓쏱뗄쿻럑탐캪평듋튪틲쯘ꆣ쪵볊짏,훐맺뻓쏱뗄쿻럑뛔쫕죫듦퓚ꆰ맽뛈랢짺쇋뇤뮯ꆣ룹뻝뛔짏몣뻓쏱뒢탮쒿뇪뗄뗷닩뷸탐쏴룐탔ꆱ(역컄욽,2001;몼뇳,2004)ꆣ퓚ꆶ훐뮪죋쏱퇐뺿뫳랢쿖,췆뚯뒢탮뇈싊늻뛏짏짽뗄훷튪솦솿쫇,릲뫍맺맺쏱뺭볃뫍짧믡랢햹뗚쪮튻룶컥쓪맦뮮룙늻좷뚨탔듸살뗄뷷짷뒢탮뗄짏짽뫍쇷뚯탔풼쫸퓬돉튪ꆷ뗚죽헂ꆶ뺭볃짧믡랢햹뗄훷튪쒿뇪ꆷ훐쳡돶ꆰ,쪮뗄뛔뻓쏱쿻럑뗄훆풼ꆣ캪듋,쯻쏇쳡돶,튪붡좫짧믡튻컥ꆱ맦뮮쪱웚,돇헲뻓쏱죋뻹뿉횧엤쫕죫뫍얩듥뻓놣헏훆뛈ꆣ붡좫짧믡놣헏훆뛈뫍쳡룟짧믡놣헏쮮욽쏱죋뻹뒿쫕죫럖뇰쓪뻹퓶뎤5%(풤웚탔횸뇪)ꆣ캪뿉틔폐킧뮺뷢쫕죫ꆢ뻍튵뗄늻좷뚨탔뛔뻓쏱쿻럑뗄쇋쪵쿖룃쒿뇪,튻튪놣돖뫪맛뺭볃뗄붡뾵퓋탐,쪹뺭틖훆ퟷ폃ꆣ떱잰튪ퟶ뫃틔쿂벸룶랽쏦뗄릤ퟷ:튻쫇볃돖탸붡뾵랢햹;뛾튪믽벫뒴퓬룼뛠뗄뻍튵믺믡,퓶튪붨솢ꆢ삩듳뫍췪짆얩듥짧믡놣헏쳥쾵,뷢돽얩듥뻓볓뻓쏱믱뗃쫕죫뗄쟾뗀;죽튪듳솦뷸탐뿆벼뒴탂,퓶쏱뗄뫳맋횮폇,쳡룟얩쏱뗄쿻럑쟣쿲;뛾쫇튪삩듳뫍볓닺욷뗄벼쫵몬솿뫍뢽볓횵,쳡룟춶뫍샍뚯뗄믘췪짆쪧튵놣쿕ꆢ튽쇆놣쿕뫍릤짋쫂맊놣쿕훆뛈,삩듳놨싊;쯄튪잿뮯쯹뗃쮰뗄쫕죫뗷뷚ퟷ폃,듙뷸릫욽럖놣쿕뗄뢲룇쏦,쪹뻓쏱쓜릻폐킧맦뇜쫐뎡뮯쯹듸살엤;컥튪퓶볓헾뢮뛔삧쓑좺쳥뗄틆횧뢶솦뛈;쇹튪뗄쾵춳럧쿕뫍럇쾵춳럧쿕,맺볒닆헾튪볓듳뛔헢랽붨솢뛠닣듎뗄뷰죚쫐뎡,췘햹뻓쏱뗄춶쟾뗀,캪뒢쏦뗄춶죫;죽쫇튪쟐쪵ퟶ뫃짧믡믹놾퇸샏놣쿕룶죋탮쿲춶뮯쳡릩돶슷(풬횾룕,2005),퓶잿닺뗄헋뮧뗄돤쪵릤ퟷ,폐쳵볾뗄믺릹뿉틔뾪햹늹돤놣쿕ꆣ닆뢻킧펦뛔쿻럑뗄듙뷸ퟷ폃ꆣ힢쫍:ꋙ뻓쏱뒢탮=뻓쏱죋뻹뿉횧엤쫕죫-뻓쏱죋뻹쿻럑,벴뻓쏱뒢탮쫇횸뻓쏱쿻럑횮뫳뗄쪣폠ꆣ놾컄쯹횸뗄뻓쏱뒢탮늻뷶냼삨뻓쏱뗄틸탐뒢탮듦뿮,뮹냼삨뻓쏱퓚막욱ꆢ웳튵햮좯ꆢ맺햮ꆢ믹뷰뫍놣쿕뗈랽쏦뗄춶ꆣ폐뗄뻓쏱뮹폃뒢탮살뷸탐럇ퟔ폃뗄춶,죧릺싲럇ퟔ폃뗄짌욷힡랿ꆣꋚ뿉틔횤쏷,킧폃몯쫽(4)쪽뗄튻뷗떼쫽듳폚0,뛾뷗떼쫽킡폚0,죽뷗떼쫽듳폚0ꆣ틲듋,룃킧폃몯쫽틑뺭냼몬쇋늻좷뚨탔ꆣ뛔룃몯쫽뗄볙짨쫜떽쿂쏦컄헂웴랢:췵뫏탷1훐맺뻓쏱쿻럑뗄맽뛈쏴룐탔럖컶[J].뺭볃뿆톧,2000쓪뗚4웚121-128튳ꆣꋛ룹뻝첩샕릫쪽쟳뷼쯆횵벴뿉뗃떽ꆣꋜ퓚헢샯,캪쇋뫍(5)쪽뗄뇤솿놣돖튻훂,횱뷓폃쿻럑뫍쫕죫뛔쫽뗄뇤뮯솿ퟷ캪뇤솿,헢럻뫏쿻럑몯쫽샭싛ꆣ[닎뾼컄쿗][1]쯎뚬쇖.컒맺돇헲뻓쏱쿻럑맽뛈쏴룐탔뗄쪵횤볬퇩폫뺭퇩럖컶[J].맜샭쫀뷧,2003,(5):29-35.[2]싦퇗,쇵뎯.훐맺뻓쏱쿻럑쟣쿲뇤뚯벰웤펰쿬틲쯘뗄쪵횤럖컶[J].쿻럑뺭볃,2005,(3):14-17.[3]쇺횾뫍,훜뫆쏷.훐맺돇헲뻓쏱풤럀탔뒢탮쪵횤퇐뺿[J].뺭볃퇐뺿,2000,(11):33-38.[4]췴뫬뻔,헅믛솫.늻좷뚨탔뫍쇷뚯탔풼쫸뛔컒맺뻓쏱쿻럑탐캪뗄펰쿬[J].뺭볃뿆톧,2002,(6):22-28.[5]뛅몣,뗋ꆡ쿨.쇷뚯탔풼쫸뫍늻좷뚨탔ힴ첬쿂뗄풤럀탔뒢탮퇐뺿ꆪꆪꆪ훐맺돇쿧뻓쏱뗄쿻럑쳘헷럖컶[J].뺭볃톧,2005,(2):297-315.[6][J].JournalofPoliticalEconomy,1993,(101):1104-1113.[7]췲맣뮪,헅ꆡ티,얣붨룟.쇷뚯탔풼쫸ꆢ늻좷뚨탔폫훐맺뻓쏱쿻럑[J].뺭볃퇐뺿,2001,(11):35-44.[8]쪩붨뮴,훬몣.훐맺돇쫐뻓쏱풤럀탔뒢탮벰풤럀탔뚯믺잿뛈:1999-2003[J].뺭볃퇐뺿,2004,(10):66-74.[9]탱뫣,훬뒺퇠.풤럀탔뒢탮샭싛ꆪꆪꆪ뒢탮(쿻럑)몯쫽뗄탂뷸햹[J].뺭볃퇐뺿,2001,(1):84-92.[퓰죎뇠벭:샮ꆡ샲]ꆤ38ꆤ
