캬웕톶 뗚第?2?3뻭卷第뗚?3웚期?듳솬샭릤듳톧톧놨?짧믡뿆톧냦???V?o?l.ꎮ ???ꆣ??ꎮ??23 No. 3 大连理工大学学报(社会科学版〉?2??0?0??2?쓪年?9퓂月??J?ou??rn??a?l ?o?f? ?D?a?l?i?a?n? ?U?n?i?v?e?r?s?i?ty?? ?o?f? ?T?e?c?h?no??l?o?g?y ?(?S?o?c?i?a?l? ?S?c?i?e?n?c?e?s?)?????ꎮ???????? Sept. 2 0 0 2 ’ 뛔对폐有限쿞增퓶长뎤期웚红뫬利샻贴쳹现쿖模쒣型탍的뗄进뷸一튻步늽研퇐究뺿?믆톧춥?ꎬ?헅?좺群?2ꎬ，?뻏鞠彦퇥兵뇸?l黄学庭张?( ?1ꎮ놱.北뺩京몽航뿕空몽航쳬天듳大톧学뺭经볃济맜管理샭学톧院풺，ꎬ놱北뺩京?1?0?00?8?3?;ꎻ??2.ꎮ北놱京뺩科뿆技벼大듳学톧管맜理샭学톧院풺，ꎬ놱北京뺩?1?0?0?08?3??) 햪摘튪要:ꎺ룹根据뻝微캢观맛经뺭济볃学톧原풭理샭，ꎬ指횸出돶了쇋?Go?r?d??on?뫍和?Go?r??do??n뗄的폐有쿞限퓶增뎤长웚期뫬红샻利쳹贴쿖现쒣模型탍存듦在퓚的뗄不늻足ퟣ3ꎻ춨通맽过럖分컶析企웳止튵在퓚?뺺竞헹争优폅势쫆期웚过맽后뫳总ퟜ净뺻资产닺收쫕益틦率싊和뫍盈펯余폠水쮮平욽的뗄变뇤化뮯过맽程돌，ꎬ建붨立솢了쇋新탂的뗄股막票욱估맀佳횵模쒣型탍。ꆣ最ퟮ后뫳是쫇一튻个룶算쯣例샽分럖析컶。ꆣ?맘关键볼词듊:ꎺ竞뺺争헹优폅势쫆期웚;ꎻ뺺竞헹争욽平뫢衡期웚;ꎻ폐有쿞限퓶增뎤长웚期뫬红利샻贴쳹现쿖模쒣型탍$ꎻ뺻净资닺产쫕收틦益率싊ꎻs风럧险쿕调뗷整헻贴쳹现쿖率싊?훐中图춼分럖类샠号뫅:ꎺ?F8?3??0ꎮ.5?9?? 文컄献쿗标뇪识쪶码싫ꎺA??컄文章헂编뇠号뫅:ꎺ1?? 0?0?8?-4??07??X (?2?0??02?)?0?2?-ꆪ0?0?3?5?ꆪ-0?3?? 去좥。ꆣ这헢뻍就意틢昧캶着ퟅ퓚在뗚第튻一阶뷗뛎段末쒩有폐着ퟅ뷏较股막权좨资本놾成돉本놾高룟?뗄的总ퟜ뺻净资닺产收쫕틦益싊率뗄的웳企튵业퓚在뺺竞争헹욽平뫢衡阶뷗段뛎믡会永폀풶远获믱取좡?h、튻一、ꆢ引틽?퇔?超뎬额뛮利샻润죳oꆣ퓚在现쿖代듺竞뺺争헹环뮷境뺳下쿂，ꎬ技벼术쫵更룼新탂加볓快뿬，ꎬ产닺品욷周훜?期웚缩쯵短뛌，ꎬ뷰金죚融쫐市뎡场뗄的日죕쟷趋成돉熟쫬使쪹得뗃项쿮目쒿融죚资变뇤得뗃容죝易틗，ꎬ?对뛔股막权좨资本놾进뷸行탐估맀价볛的뗄基믹本놾模쒣型탍是쫇红뫬利샻贴쳹现쿖模쒣?以틔벰及웳企튵业퓋运ퟷ作뗄的좫全쟲球뮯化쟷趋势쫆쪹使得뗃固만有폐的뗄加볓工릤地뗘뗍低成돉本놾?型탍。ꆣ내按照헕?Mi?ch?e?a?l??Po?r?t?e?r?的뗄竞뺺争헹优폅势쫆理샭论싛，ꎬ웳企튵业的뗄竞뺺争헹?优폅势쫆下쿂降붵等뗈，ꎬ웳企튵业튪要캬维돖持뎤长뻃久뗄的뎬超뛮额샻利죳润붫将面쏦临쇙极벫大듳?优폅势쫆取좡决뻶于폚该룃企웳业튵的뗄组ퟩ织횯、ꆢ市쫐场뎡地뗘位캻、ꆢ专利샻、ꆢ짺生닺产潜잱力솦?뗄的挑쳴战햽。ꆣ诚돏然좻，ꎬ늻不뿉可럱否죏认，ꎬ폐有킩些웳企튵业퓚在뗚第튻一뷗阶뛎段쓜能릻够达듯?以틔벰及뺭经验퇩积믽累샛等뗈等뗈。ꆣ拥펵有폐竞뺺争헹优폅势쫆的뗄企웳业튵才닅有폐真헦正헽的뗄?到떽为캪后뫳来살竞뺺争헹对뛔于쫖所쯹不늻能쓜企웳及벰的뗄资本놾规맦模쒣和뫍规맦模쒣效킧?增퓶长뎤机믺会믡，ꎬ닅才쓜能캪为막股뚫东뒴创퓬造룼更뛠多的뗄价볛值횵。ꆣ但떫到떽目쒿前잰为캪?益틦，ꎬ좡取뗃得쇋了돖持탸续쫐市뎡场폅优쫆势믲或헟者닺产욷品욷品없牌쫜受到떽消쿻费럑者헟的뗄?止횹，ꎬ믹基폚于뺺竞헹争폅优쫆势期웚的뗄股막票욱估맀价볛模쒣型탍尚짐不늻多뛠见볻。ꆣJ??o?s?e?ph??格룱外췢钟훓爱낮等뗈，ꎬ쪹使뗃得쯼它쏇们퓚在뺺竞헹争욽平뫢衡쪱时웚期쓜能컈稳믱获超뎬额뛮利샻??R.ꎮ G?o?r?d?o?n?和뫍M?y?r?o?n??J?.ꎮ G?o?r?d?o?n?提쳡出돶的뗄有폐限쿞增퓶长뎤期웚红뫬?润죳。ꆣ헢这쫇是슢垄뛏断뺺竞争헹市쫐场뎡情쟩况뿶下쿂的뗄竞뺺争헹平욽衡뫢状ힴ态첬。ꆣ但떫是쫇，ꎬ?利샻贴쳹现쿖模쒣型탍(?틔以쿂下돆称此듋模쒣型탍为캪G?o?r?d?o?n?뫍和?Go?r?d?o?n?쒣模?具뻟有폐竞뺺헹争优폅势쫆期웚的뗄大듳多뛠数쫽企웳业튵并늢没쎻有폐这헢么쎴幸탒运퓋。ꆣ随쯦着ퟅ?型탍)?뿉可캽谓쫇是헢这랽方쏦面폐有듺代表뇭性탔的뗄研퇐究뺿。ꆣ룃该쒣模탍型붫将웳企业튵的뗄未캴?살뮮럖캪뺺헹폅쫆웚뫍뺺헹욽뫢웚솽룶뷗뛎ꆣ쯤좻?企웳业튵"ꆰ쳘特좨权ꆱ"?(죧如专샻利쫜受놣保뮤护웚期?)뗄的쿻消쪧失뫍和뺺竞헹争뛔对쫖手쪵实力솦?来划分为竞争优势期和竞争平衡期两个阶段。虽然???????ꎮ???????퓚??????뫍??????쒣탍믹뒡?的뗄增퓶强잿，ꎬ웳企튵业닺产욷品뗄的펮赢利샻能쓜力솦将붫会믡下쿂降붵。ꆣ从듓理샭论싛上짏讲붲，ꎬ?Morris G. Danielson在Gordon和Gordon模型基础짏쳡돶쇋룼볲뷠뗄막볛쒣탍ꎬ떫놾훊컞뛾ꆣ쯻퇐뺿쇋웳?当떱允퓊许탭自ퟔ由평进뷸入죫时쪱，ꎬ뺺竞헹争헟者在퓚뷶仅能쓜获믱得뗃正헽常뎣利샻润죳(?即벴其웤?上提出了更简洁的股价模型，但本质元二。他研究了企ꆯ?튵퓚뗚튻뷗뛎?벴뺺헹폅쫆웚?뿉쓜닉좡뗄늻춬뫬샻헾?净뺻资产닺收쫕益틦率싊等뗈于폚资本놾成돉本놾)?뗄的쟩情뿶况쿂下튲也会믡샖乐意틢进뷸行탐?4 业在第一阶段(即竞争优势期)可能采取的不同红利政닟쿂ꎬ웳튵쫐펯싊??ꎯ??폫쯄룶볛횵쟽뚯틲쯘??????同춬样퇹的뗄产닺品욷生짺产닺。ꆣ틲因듋此，ꎬ뛔对펵拥폐有뺺竞헹争폅优쫆势웚期뗄的듳大뛠多数쫽企웳?策下，企业市盈率(P/E)与四个价值驱动因素(value ???????뗄맘쾵ꎬ벴?ꎯ?폫럧쿕뗷헻쳹쿖싊ꆢ퓙춶?业튵而뛸言퇔。ꆣ퓚在폅优쫆势웚期맽过뫳后，ꎬ웤其뷏较룟高뗄的ퟜ总뺻净资닺产쫕收틦益싊率붫将经뺭?drivers)的关系，即P/E与风险调整贴现率、再投资싊ꆢ퓙춶뺻닺쫕틦싊뫍뺺헹폅쫆웚뗄맘쾵ꆣ?历샺一튻个룶下쿂降붵过맽程돌，ꎬퟮ最뫳后컈稳뚨定퓚在폫与막股좨权资놾本成돉놾本相쿠等뗈的뗄?率、再投资净资产收益率和竞争优势期的关系。??????뫍??????쒣탍뗄ퟮ듳폅뗣쫇붫웳튵뺺?水쮮平욽下쿂，ꎬퟔ自듋此쯼它쏇们튲也붫将횻只能쓜获믱得뗃平욽均뻹利샻润죳。ꆣ헢这是쫇充돤分럖高룟?Gordon和Gordon模型的最大优点是将企业竞헹폅쫆웚헢튻룅쓮쓉죫떽막욱맀횵훐좥ꎬ듓뛸쪹캢맛?度뛈竞뺺争헹市쫐场뎡达듯到떽竞뺺争헹平욽衡뫢的뗄必뇘然좻结뷡果맻。ꆣ正헽是쫇基믹于폚这헢一튻?争优势期这一概念纳入到股票估值中去，从而使微观뺭볃샭싛ꆢ웳튵뺺헹폅쫆샭싛뫍춶욱맀횵샭싛뗃틔폐?考뾼虑싇，ꎬ놾本컄文퓚在对뛔G?o?r?d?o?n?和뫍G?o?r?d?o?n?模쒣型탍分럖析컶的뗄基믹础뒡?经济理论、企业竞争优势理论和投票估值理论得以有믺뷡뫏ꆣ떫룃쒣탍뛔뗚뛾뷗뛎?벴뺺헹욽뫢웚?뗄뒦샭?上짏，ꎬ럖分컶析웳企튵业퓚在뗚第뛾二뷗阶뛎段ퟜ总뺻净资닺产쫕收틦益싊率及벰盈펯余폠水쮮平욽?机结合。但该模型对第二阶段(即竞争平衡期)的处理쿔뗃맽폚볲떥뮯ꆣ내헕룃쒣탍뗄볙뚨ꎬ웳튵퓚뺺헹폅쫆?的뗄下쿂降붵趋쟷势쫆，ꎬ붨建솢立튻一룶个탂新的뗄股막票욱估맀值횵模쒣型탍。ꆣ쿔显좻然헢这一튻研퇐?显得过于简单化。按照该模型的假定，企业在竞争优势웚쒩듯떽뗄ퟜ뺻쫕틦싊붫퓚뗚뛾뷗뛎튻횱돖탸쿂?究뺿对뛔股막票욱的뗄正헽确좷估맀值횵是쫇十쪮分럖必뇘要튪的뗄。期末达到的总净资收益率将在第二阶段一直持续下ꆣ?收쫕稿룥日죕期웚:ꎺ2??00?2?-ꆪ0?3?-ꆪ1?1? 作ퟷ者헟简볲介뷩sꎻ黄믆学톧庭춥(1??9?6?5?斗튻?，ꎬ쓐男，ꎬ몺汉ퟥ族，ꎬ뫓河쓏南떦郭돇城人죋，ꎬ놱北뺩京몽航뿕空몽航쳬天듳大学톧博늩士쪿研퇐究뺿生짺，ꎬ훷主튪要듓从쫂事金뷰融죚工릤程돌与폫风럧险쿕管맜理샭研퇐究뺿.ꆣ?
캬웕톶 36 듳大솬连理샭工릤大듳学톧学톧报놨(?社짧会믡科뿆学톧版냦)??뗚第?2?3뻭卷?pr(1 + pR)r .. 튻ꎺ??튻ꇀ?ꎺ???ꆫ?ꎺ???(5) 뛾二、ꆢ뛔对?Go?r??do?溺n?和?Go?r?d?o?n?쒣模탍型的뗄分럖析컶??1?+퓆丢?[(ꎬrꎮ?+ ?pR)?r ꆫ-1?]? ??????뫍??????쒣탍캪ꎺ?죝容易틗证횤明쏷，ꎬ当떱?r뫜很大듳时쪱ꎬ，?R?O?E?r뷓接뷼近竞뺺争헹优폅势쫆期웚间볤?Gordon和Gordon模型为:뗄的쓪年퓶增长뎤率싊?p돟R。ꆣ틲因듋此ꎬ，뛔对뺺竞헹争폅优쫆势웚期폐有쿠相当떱年쓪限쿞、ꆢ룟高增퓶?Pꆣ?o= ~ ?~1? ?(1? 튻-?p?) ?(1? ?+ ?p?R ?)?’-1+ꎮE?1??(1? ?+ ?p?R)?r ꆣ??????ꆮ?ꆣ????????뎤长(?쿠相뛔对폚于是?뛸而言퇔)?뗄的웳企튵业ꎬ，퓚在뗚第뛾二뷗阶뛎段놣保持돖?R?OE??曹헢这?U但(1+ k)’ k(1 +的r????튻一뺻净资产닺收쫕益틦率싊不늻变뇤意틢味캶着ퟅ它쯼会믡一튻直횱取좡得뗃超뎬额뛮利샻润죳。ꆣ?(1) 룃릫쪽볙짨웳튵떱잰펵폐뗄닺퓚캴살붫닺짺쎿?前잰已틑述쫶及벰，ꎬ평由폚于뺺竞헹争뗄的ퟷ作폃用，ꎬ듳大뛠多쫽数웳企튵业붫将뫜很쓑难놣保持돖住힡?该公式假设企业当前拥有的资产在未来将产生每막??뗄폀탸펯폠ꆣ막좨춶헟튪쟳뗄쫕틦싊쪼훕캪?这헢一튻高룟收쫕益틦率싊。ꆣ헢这튻一阶뷗段뛎的뗄总ퟜ뺻净资产닺收쫕益틦率싊将붫由평?股EI的永续盈余。股权投资者要求的收益率始终为?ꆣ웳튵쎿쓪뗄쇴듦펯폠뇈샽?퓙춶싊?캪?ꆣ퓚캴살?돟R?OE??r쿂下降붵至훁是?并늢稳컈定뚨在퓚这헢一튻水쮮平욽上짏。ꆣ?是。企业每年的留存盈余比例(再投资率)为p。在未来具뻟폐有뺺竞争헹优폅势쫆的뗄?r쓪年中훐，ꎬ쎿每쓪年탂新춶投资뗄的뺻净资닺产收쫕益틦率싊?캪为돟Rꎬ，듳大于폚股막权좨投춶资者헟要튪求쟳的뗄收쫕益틦率싊是?。ꆣ从듓第뗚r??十?1年쓪开뾪?죽三、ꆢ탂新맀估볛价쒣模탍型뗄的붨建立솢?始쪼，ꎬ웳企튵业뷸进죫入뺺竞헹争욽平뫢衡期웚，ꎬ탂新춶投资쿮项쒿目뗄的뺻净资닺产쫕收틦益率싊?等뗈于폚是?ꆣ。룹根뻝据这헢些킩假볙设짨，ꎬ퓚在뺺竞헹争폅优势쫆期웚r?쓪年内쓚，ꎬ웳企튵业利샻?놾本컄文붨建立솢的뗄估맀价볛模쒣型탍仍죔遵ퟱ从듓G?o?r?d?o?n?뫍和?Go?r?d?o?n??润죳和뫍红뫬利샻的뗄年쓪增퓶长뎤率싊均뻹为캪?p?R，ꎬ퓚在随쯦뫳后的뗄各룷年쓪中훐企웳业튵盈펯?模쒣型탍的뗄思쮼路슷，ꎬ붫将웳企튵业뗄的캴未살来뮮划分럖为캪两솽个룶阶뷗段뛎:ꎺ뺺竞헹争폅优势쫆?余폠和뫍红뫬利샻的뗄年쓪增퓶长뎤率싊均뻹为캪?pkꆣ。事쫂实쪵上짏，ꎬ평由于폚自ퟔ第뗚，?+?1??웚期和뫍竞뺺争헹平욽衡뫢期웚。ꆣ헢这솽两룶个쒣模型탍的뗄第뗚一튻阶뷗段뛎是쫇相쿠同춬的뗄，ꎬ因틲?쓪年后뫳企웳业튵不늻再퓙具뻟有폐可뿉带듸来살超뎬额뛮利샻润죳的뗄新탂的뗄投춶资机믺会믡，ꎬ?为캪当떱企웳业튵处뒦于폚竞뺺争헹优폅势쫆期웚时쪱，ꎬ同춬类샠企웳业튵难쓑以틔与폫之횮抗뾹衡뫢，ꎬ?웳튵믡닉좡붫좫늿펯폠랢럅룸막뚫뗄뫬샻럖엤헾닟ꆣ???잱퓚뺺헹뛔쫖쓑틔뷸죫ꎬ룃웳튵퓚헢튻뷗뛎탂뻉춶?4 企业会采取将全部盈余发放给股东的红利分配政策。潜在竞争对手难以进入，该企业在这一阶段新旧投资캪为了쇋쮵说明쏷这헢一튻点뗣，ꎬ짨设룃该웳企튵业막股票욱在퓚第뗚?r年쓪쒩末的뗄内쓚在퓚价볛?뗄的펮赢샻利能쓜力솦均뻹不늻会믡受쫜到떽冲돥击믷。ꆣ其웤差닮别뇰在퓚于폚第뗚二뛾阶뷗段뛎。ꆣ当떱?횵值为캪孔?，?ꎬ第뗚，??+1?쓪年的뗄盈펯余폠为캪E?볾巾?，ꎬ则퓲?考뾼싇虑到떽뺻净资产닺收쫕益틦率싊在퓚第뗚二뛾阶뷗段뛎要튪由평?R?OE??r쿂下降붵至훁是??P쪬.? =튻 ?(1 -p)E叶1튻-E헹t?늢并稳컈定뚨在퓚这헢一튻水쮮平욽上짏时쪱，ꎬ듋此뷗阶뛎段쎿每쓪年뗄的펯盈폠余也튲不늻再퓙是쫇?(2) k -pk k 뿉볻ꎬ떱탂춶늻쓜듸살뎬뛮샻죳쪱ꎬ뺡맜웳튵뿉?놣保持돖E?ꆭ叶1不늻变뇤，ꎬ뛸而쫇是由평E?ꆭ下쿂降붵至훁是叶1?B?r?达듯到떽真헦正헽的뗄竞뺺?可见，当新投资不能带来超额利润时，尽管企业可붫늿럖펯폠뷸탐퓙춶?벴??????ꎬ듓뛸쪹뗃펯폠?헹争平욽衡뫢状ힴ态첬。ꆣ?将部分盈余进行再投资(即0<ρ<1)，从而使得盈余뫍뫬샻뗄쓪퓶뎤싊캪?ꎬ떫폫붫펯폠좫늿ퟷ캪뫬샻랢?假볙设짨这헢一튻盈펯余폠下쿂降붵过맽程돌需탨H?年쓪，ꎬ쎿每쓪年쿂下붵降比뇈샽例为캪?和红利的年增长率为pk，但与将盈余全部作为红利发럅?벴?튻??쎻쪲쎴솽퇹ꎬ늢늻쓜룸막뚫뒴퓬룼뛠볛?튻一常뎣数쫽?h?(?O?<?h?<?1)?，ꎬ则퓲第뗚뛾二阶뷗段뛎每쎿年쓪的뗄盈펯余폠为캪?放(即p=O)没什么两样，并不能给股东创造更多价횵ꆣ헢춬쪱튲쮵쏷ꎬ캴살쎻폐뺺헹폅쫆뗄웳튵뻍늻뻟폐?E, = J?E1??0十?p?돟R?)'?O튻-?d)?川?+?川ꆱꎬr?十?l?ꇜζt?ζꇜr?十?Hꋴ?十l?值。这同时也说明，未来没有竞争优势的企业就不具有헦헽틢틥짏뗄퓶뎤믺믡??????????????????ꆣ?. l? ?k丘??ꎬ?t;ꇝ二?r十?H?十??1真正意义上的增长机会(growthopportunity)。믹폚듋ꎬ쿂쏦뿉퓚뗚뛾뷗뛎퓙춶싊?튻?헢튻볙?(?6?)?? 基于此，下面可在第二阶段再投资率p=。这一假짨쿂쳖싛??????뫍??????쒣탍쯹틾몬뗄ퟜ뺻닺?从듓而뛸新탂的뗄估맀价볛模쒣型탍可뿉表뇭示쪾为设下讨论Gordon和Gordon模型所隐含的总净资产캪?收쫕益틦率싊的뗄变뇤化뮯过맽程돌。ꆣ第뗚t?年쓪的뗄总ퟜ净뺻资产닺收쫕益틦率싊?RO?E?，?p一毛E1(1一同(1+ pR)’-1 쫇횸룃쓪뗄펯폠??폫룃쓪돵ퟜힱ닺?튻?횮뇈ꆣ쿔?뮧ꆣ튻뿼??o一纭????。ꆢ??+?剖ꆯ'ꎬ?是指该年的盈余E，与该年初总妆资产B'_I之比。显좻ꎬ????뗈폚돵쪼뺻닺쫕틦싊ꎬꎮ?벴??ꎯ??뫍퓙춶?r+~1 E생1?(1 +ꇀ ?pR)气ꎺ?1-뛾?h)川뛾?叶1ꎺ튻ꎮ?# 然，ROE，等于初始净资产收益率r(即EIIBo)和再投뗄뺻닺쫕틦싊돟뗄볓좨욽뻹ꎬ좨훘럖뇰쫇돵쪼???ꎯ????????ꆣ?，三~I(1 +剖资的净资产收益率R的加权平均，权重分别是初始资닺뫍틑쪵쿖뗄퓙춶놾햼ퟜ뺻닺뗄뇈샽ꆣ죴ꎬꎮ??二、kB产和己实现的再投资资本占总净资产的比例。若r<>; 一一一一τ(ꋮ7)? 돟ꎬ퓲퓚뗚튻뷗뛎ꎬ쯦ퟅ쪱볤뗄췆틆ꎬ퓙춶늿럖햼뗄?ꎺ???ꎬ????횾?ꆮ?’=rit+2 (1 + k) R，则在第一阶段，随着时间的推移，再投资部分占的뇈샽풽살풽듳ꎬ틲뛸????풽살풽듳ꎬ떽뗚???쓪듯?其웤中훐H?可뿉由평下쿂式쪽求쟳出돶。ꆣ由평E?r볾+1?(?1? ?-h?)?H =?k?B??r知횪?比例越来越大，因而ROE，越来越大，到第，+1年达到떽最ퟮ大듳，ꎬ볇记为캪R?O?E??r。ꆣ뗚第뛾二뷗阶뛎段붫将튻一直횱维캬持돖这헢一튻收쫕益틦率싊????????ꆪLn ~Br nτ. 쮮욽ꆣ?H? 튻쏦?L:.r+1 水平。一(?8?)? 평폚?Ln(1 -h) 由于E?r볾+1? =튻 E?I? (?1? +? ?p?R)?r? (?3?)?? ??튻?????????????????????????????四쯄、ꆢ쯣算샽例럖分析컶?1 Br= Bo+EIP+EIP(1 +pR) +A+EP(1 +pR)r-1튻= B?o?{??l +??去[???(?1?十??阳튻一?山??ω??? 将붫(??7?)쪽式폫与?(?1?쿠)相뇈比ꎬ늻，쓑不难뾴看돶出ꎬ，퓚在춬同퇹样条쳵件볾下쿂，ꎬ?틲듋?????????????뫍??????쒣탍뗄맀볛튪룟폚탂붨뗄쒣탍ꆣ틲?.ꇸ.. ?Gordon和Gordon模型的估价要高于新建的模型。因因此??ROEr?=苦此듋，ꎬ뫶忽싔略뛔对뗚第뛾二뷗阶뛎段ퟜ总뺻净资닺产쫕收틦益싊率뇤变뮯化的뗄考뾼虑싇将붫使쪹?
캬웕톶 第뗚3?웚期?믆黄学톧庭춥，ꎬ张헅?群좺，ꎬ뻏鞠彦퇥兵뇸zꎺ뛔对有폐限쿞增퓶长뎤期웚红뫬利샻贴쳹现쿖模쒣型탍的뗄进뷸一튻步늽研퇐究뺿? ꆤ ?37? ꆤ? 年뗃得股막票욱内쓚在퓚价볛值횵高룟估맀。ꆣ下쿂面쏦通춨过맽一튻个룶假볙设짨的뗄例샽子ퟓ来살说쮵?高룟，ꎬ쎿每막股9?.ꎮ?趴ꎻ在퓚第뗚二뛾阶뷗段뛎，ꎬ?Go?r?d?o?n?뫍和?Go?r?d?o?n?模쒣型탍中훐?明쏷뛾二쒣模型탍맀估价볛的뗄不늻同춬以틔及벰各룷年쓪盈펯余폠和뫍总ퟜ净뺻资产닺收쫕益틦率싊?的뗄쓪年盈펯폠余水쮮平욽保놣持돖每쎿股막?9.ꎮ3?不늻变뇤，ꎬ뛸而탂新붨建쒣模탍型考뾼虑싇了쇋?变뇤动뚯轨맬迹벣的뗄差닮异틬。ꆣ?年쓪盈펯余폠水쮮平욽由평9?.ꎮ3?按내年쓪?5?%的뗄쿂下降붵率싊降붵至훁4?.ꎮ8?9??(벴即?볙假设짨股막权좨投춶资者헟要튪求쟳的뗄收쫕益틦率싊是?=튻1?0?%ꎥ.ꎬ每쎿股막初돵??kB??ꆣ)?늢并稳컈뚨定在퓚该룃水쮮平욽这헢一튻过맽程돌。ꆣ图춼2?뇭表明쏷:ꎺ퓚在뗚第튻一阶10뷗?쪼始净뺻资产닺?Boꆣ튻=1?0?.ꎬ第뗚一튻年쓪每쎿股막盈펯余폠?Eꆣ?=1?.ꎮ5?.ꎬ竞뺺争헹优폅势1쫆?뛎段，ꎬ뛾二쒣模탍型틾隐몬含뗄的ퟜ总뺻净资产닺收쫕益틦率싊的뗄增퓶长뎤过맽程돌相쿠同춬，ꎬ由평?웚期，?튻=1?0?年쓪，ꎬ웚期볤间퓙再춶投资뺻净资닺产收쫕益틦率싊?R=튻2?0?饵ꎥ，ꎬ퓙再춶投?돵初始쪼的뗄1??5?%퓶增至훁1??9ꎮ.?3?%ꎻ;퓚在뗚第二뛾阶뷗段뛎，ꎬ?Go?r?d?o?n?和뫍?资率싊ρ?튻=1?。ꆣ폖又볙假뚨定웳企튵业퓚在뗚第뛾二뷗阶뛎段펯盈余폠的뗄年쓪下쿂降붵比뇈例샽??Go?r?d?o?n?쒣模型탍中훐的뗄总ퟜ净뺻资产닺收쫕益틦率싊一튻直횱保놣持돖?1?9ꎮ.?3?%这헢??h?=5?%ꎥꆣ。쓇那么쎴，ꎬ뿉可쟳求돶出돵初쪼始资닺产쫕收益틦率싊r?튻=1?5?ꎥ%ꎬ•뗚第1??0?튻一水쮮平욽不늻变뇤，ꎬ뛸而탂新붨建쒣模탍型뾼考싇虑쇋了总ퟜ净뺻资产닺收쫕益틦率싊由평?年쓪末쒩的뗄净뺻资?Bꆣ10=튻4?8?.ꎮ9?3?，ꎬ竞뺺争헹优폅势쫆期웚后뫳达듯到떽的뗄最ퟮ高룟年쓪??1?9ꎮ.?3?%降붵至훁与폫股막权좨投춶资者헟要튪求쟳的뗄收쫕益틦率싊(1???0?%)?相쿠等뗈并늢?펯盈余폠E?lꆣl?=9?.ꎮ3?ꎬ，ퟮ最룟高ퟜ总资닺产쫕收틦益率싊?R?OE?ꆣ1o=튻1?9?.ꎮ1?号ꎥ手?)뷓接?稳定在这一水平的过程。近뷼该룃期웚增퓶长뎤率싊2??0ꎥ%)?ꎬ，뗚第뛾二뷗阶뛎段쓪年펯盈폠余水쮮平욽(?믲或ퟜ总뺻净资?컈뚨퓚헢튻쮮욽뗄맽돌ꆣ?닺产收쫕益틦率싊)?쿂下붵降的뗄웚期限쿞?H=튻1?2?.ꎮ5?ꎥ%。ꆣ평由式쪽(?1??)뿉可뗃得G?o?r?ꆪ????뫍??????쒣탍뛔막욱뗄맀볛풼캪??ꎮ?ꎬ뛸내헕?五컥ꆢ、뷡?结论싛?don和Gordon模型对股票的估价约为，而按照式쪽(?7?)?可뿉뗃得新탂建붨模쒣型탍的뗄估맀价볛约풼为캪?2?5ꎮ.?7ꎥ%，ꎬ솽两헟者뺹竟쿠相닮差?쇋??ꎮ??쿂쏦쫇뛾쒣탍훐뗄쓪펯폠쮮욽뫍ퟜ뺻닺쫕??Go?r?d?o?n?뫍和?Go?r?d?o?n?的뗄有폐限쿞增퓶长뎤期웚红뫬利샻贴쳹现쿖模쒣型탍?了!下面是二模型中的年盈余水平和总净资产收놱훷뮯쟩뿶뗄뛔뇈춼ꆣ?对뛔第뗚뛾二阶뷗뛎段的뗄뒦处理샭맽过于폚简볲单떥化뮯。ꆣ高룟增퓶长뎤性탔企웳业튵经뺭历샺竞뺺?北主化情况的对比图。争헹优폅势쫆期웚后뫳，ꎬ웤其ퟜ总뺻净资닺产收쫕益틦率싊将붫达듯到떽较뷏高룟的뗄水쮮平욽。ꆣ大듳?、、、, 多뛠쫽数企웳业튵在퓚充돤分럖竞뺺争헹阶뷗段뛎将붫很뫜难쓑一튻直횱获믱得뗃超뎬额뛮利샻润죳，ꎬ?/\ 、、、、、、凶较뷏룟高的뗄总ퟜ뺻净资닺产收쫕틦益率싊붫将会믡下쿂降붵并늢稳컈定뚨在퓚与폫股막权좨投춶资?者헟튪要쟳求的뗄收쫕益틦싊率相쿠当떱的뗄쮮水平욽。ꆣ新탂붨建的뗄股막票욱估맀值횵模쒣型탍考뾼?0 0 10 20 30 40 虑싇了쇋这헢一튻变뇤化뮯，ꎬ듓从而뛸使쪹估맀值횵更룼加볓合뫏理샭。ꆣ?f 图춼1?两솽模쒣型탍中훐年쓪盈펯余폠变뇤化뮯对뛔比뇈?닎뾼컄쿗ꎺ?参考文献:3??0?r 뷐????凶??2?0??卡一一一~[?I?J? D??AM?O?D?A??RA?M? ?A?.ꎮ投춶资评움估맀gꎺ评움估맀任죎何뫎资产닺价볛值횵的뗄工릤具뻟?~ 10~一←??和뫍技벼术쫵[??MJ?.ꎮ朱훬武커祥쿩.ꎬX뗋/몣J럥海峰틫译ꎮ.놱北뺩京2ꎺ清쟥华뮪大듳学톧出돶版냦社짧，ꎬ?0’ o?? ?1?0? ?20? ??30?? ?40? ?????ꎮ?1999. [?2?J? J??OS??EP?H? ??R? G?.ꎬM?Y?R?O?N?? ?J? ?G.ꎮ ?Th?e?? F??in?? t?e?? ?Ho?r? ?z?o?n?? E?x?p?e?c??te?d?? 캧?솽쒣탍쯹틾몬뗄ퟜ뺻닺쫕틦싊뛔뇈?R?e?t?u?r?e?? ?Mo?d?e?l? ?[?口?.ꎬ?F? n?a?n?c? ?a?l? ?A?na??ly??s?ts?? J??ou?r?n?a?1?ꎬ.?19??9?7.ꎬ ?M?a?yꎯ/? 图2两模型所隐含的总净资产收益率对比?Ju?n?e?.ꎮ? 평춼?뿉틔뾴돶ꎬ퓚뗚튻뷗뛎ꎬ뛾쒣탍훐쓪펯폠뗄?[?3?J?? M??OR?R?I?S? ?G?? ?D.ꎮ A?? ?S?im?p?l?e ?V?a?l?u??a?ti?o?n? ??M?od?e?l? a?n?d? ??Gr??ow?t?h?? ?E?xꆪ›?由图l可以看出，在第一阶段，二模型中年盈余的뇤뮯쿠춬ꎬ벴뚼뺭맽튻룶짏짽맽돌ꎬ훁뗚??쓪듯떽ퟮ??pe??c?ta?t?i?o?n?s?? [?J? J?.ꎬ F?i?n?a?n?c?i?al? ?An?a?l?y?st?s?? J?o??ur?n?a?I?.ꎬ 1?9??9?8.ꎬ M??a?y ꎯ/ ?变化相同，即都经过一个上升过程，至第11年达到最ꇱ??Ju?n?e?.ꎮ? 4 ?A? f?u?r?t?h?e?r?? s?t?u?d?y?? o??f? ?fi?n?i?t?e?? ?gr?o?w??th?? d?i?v??i?d?e?n?t? ?di??sc??o?u?n?t? m?o?d?e?l? ?????????ꆪ?????1ꎬ?????????ꆣ2ꎬ??????ꆪ????1 HUANG Xue-t ng ZHANG aun JU Yan-bing(? 1?.ꎮ ?Sc?h?o?o?J? o?f? ?E?co??no??m?ics?? M??a?n?a?g?e?m?e?n?t.ꆣ ?8e? ?j ?ng? ??U?n?iv?e?rsi?ty? ??of? A??e?r?on??a?u?ti?c?s ?&. A??s?tr?o?n?a?u?t?ic?s.ꎬ 8?e?i?ji?ng?? ?10??0?0?8?3ꎬ. ?Ch?? n?a;ꎻ? 2?.ꎮ U??n?iv?e?r?si?ty?? o?f? ?Sc?i?en??c?e ?&. ?Te??ch?n??o?lo?g?y.ꎬ ?8e?i?ji?ng? ?1??00??0?8?3.ꎬ C?h?i?n?a )? ?A?b?s?t?r?a?c?t:ꎺ T?h?i?s? ?pa?p??e?r? ?p?oi??n?ts?? o?u??t? ?????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????the problems existing in the finite growth divident discount model set up by G?o??r?do??n ?& G??o?rd?o?n?? ?ac?c??o?r?di??n?g? t?o?? ?mi?cr?o?-ꆪe?c??on?o?m?i?c?s?? ?th?e?o??ry?.ꎮ ?A ?n??e?w? ?st?o?c??k? e??v?al??u?a?ti?o?n? ?mo?d??e?l? ?i?s ?i?n?tr?o?d?u?c?e?d?? ?b?a?se?d?? ?o?n? ?????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????the analysis of the changing process of the total returns on equity and balance levels of the companies after the ?????????????????????????????????????ꎮ???????????ꎬ??????????????????????????????????????????????????ꎮ?period of their competitive superiority. And finally. an example is offered as to how the new model works. ?????????ꎺ??????????????????????????????ꎻ????????????????????????????????ꎻ???????????????????????????????Key words: period of competitive superiority; period of competitive equi1ibrium; finite growth divident discount ?mo??d?e?l;ꎻ r?a?t?e?? o??f? ?r?e?tu?r?n?? o?n?? e??q?ui?t?y;ꎻ r?i?s??k-ꆪa?d??j?us??te??d? ?di?s??c?o?u?n?t? ?r?at?e??
