新產品研發
第七章評估新產品的市場機會
授課教授：盧淵源博士
報告學生：洪文賺
市場機會預測
大綱
〈一〉關鍵市場因素的診斷與觀念化
〈二〉設計主要因素的工作底稿與副模式
〈三〉蒐集關鍵變相的資料
〈四〉資料分析與區隔市場
〈五〉擴大發展新產品情境
〈六〉預測市場潛力與滲透能力
〈七〉持續的更新模式與預測
市場機會預測
〈一〉關鍵市場因素的診斷與觀念化
透過新產品市場機會之研究確認，並以觀念化的方式界定新產品情境中的主要因素〈包括關鍵變相與企業關係人〉 ，且假設這些因素會影響需求。
市場機會預測
〈一〉關鍵市場因素的診斷與觀念化
以高畫質彩視〈HDTV〉為例
1.人口基數
2.科技
3.潛在購買者知曉產品的比例
4. HDTV節目的可接收性
5.潛在購買者的購買意願
市場機會預測
〈二〉設計主要因素的工作底稿與副模式
使用確認的因素來估計市場規模、成長率及滲透能力，並設計工作底稿與其他副模式以指引資料蒐集的工作。
市場機會預測
〈三〉蒐集關鍵變相的資料
在整個新產品規劃期間蒐集各個模式的資料，對主要因素及因素之間互動的趨勢與期望的方向，發展預測的工作。
新產品發展程序
產生創意
創意來自顧客
、使用者、研
究者、公司人
員、中間商
及競爭者。
篩選
公司優劣勢
市場趨勢
評估創意
觀念測試
顧客反應
發展
研發
開發模型
或原型
商業化
產品行銷計畫
開始生產行銷
選定市場推出
9-5
Exhibit 9-4
市場機會預測
〈三〉蒐集關鍵變相的資料
以高畫質彩視〈HDTV〉為例
1.人口—尋找規劃期間人口的統計資料
2.科技—利用科技專家的判斷，預測未來接收品質
3. 知曉—預測知曉HDTV觀念的人口比率
4. HDTV節目的可接收性—預測規劃期間以HDTV訊 號有效傳達節目的比率
5. 購買意願—透過調查預測購買意願
〈四〉資料分析與區隔市場
分析所蒐集的資料，並且特別強調市場的區隔結構，以及供應各區隔之可能的不同觀念。
市場機會預測
市場機會預測
市場區隔
1.王偉忠---寧願沒有優點但不能沒有特點
2.早期高凌風的表演也是市場區隔的一種
3.大成報—強調影劇及體育新聞
4.瑞穗與統一鮮奶
與Toyota汽車
市場區隔
Exhibit 3-6
3-9
位地會社
可靠性
A. 從產品市場區隔出三個子市場
位地會社
可靠性
B.從產品市場區隔出六個子市場
市場機會預測
〈五〉擴大發展新產品情境
集中在選定的區隔中創造一個基本的新產品情境，並且從主要因素對新產品的影響趨勢與假設，建立不同的未來情境。
市場機會預測
擴大發展新產品情境的方法
1.環境模擬---先了解人們在面對新的實體環境時對新產品的反應。
2.資訊加速化---乃是一種實驗室的技術，使得未來可以得到的資訊，在今日就提供給潛在購買者。
3.選擇情境---選擇最可能代表未來情境的一些限制條件，以便預測其市場機會。
要發現機會
應知道 :
技術創新
災變
經濟轉型
人口統計資料
的改變
政府法規的改變
發現機會
生活型態與
嗜好的改變
市場機會預測
〈六〉預測市場潛力與滲透能力
以量化方式預測市場潛力與成長情形
市場機會預測
〈七〉持續的更新模式與預測
在產品發展的循環過程中，將新資料與經驗融入新產品模式與情境中，並且持續更新市場機會的預測。
Summary Overview
New products can be anything that in any way provides the company with another way to meet customer needs. This includes totally new inventions and simple color changes in existing products. The FTC limits claims of “newness” to six months. Because new product success is important to companies seeking growth, most firms formalize the new- product development process.
New-Product Development Process
Idea Generation. New product ideas come from all over -- salespeople, production workers, customers, competitors -- anywhere! Sharp companies keep an open mind and eye to many relevant sources of new product ideas.
Screening. Screening involves evaluating the new idea in relation to strengths, weaknesses, opportunities, and threats facing the company--and also the company’s objectives and resources. Some companies also weigh ideas for their effect on consumer welfare. Safety must be considered. The Consumer Product Safety Act encourages safety in product design and better quality control. Also, product liability means that the company has the legal obligation to pay damages to persons injured by defective or unsafe products. Also, return on investment (ROI) forecasts can help prioritize product ideas.
Idea Evaluation. Here firms use concept testing -- getting reactions from customers about how well a new product idea fits their needs. Such market research can be informal or a very formal, systematic investigation.
Development. Here more research and development is conducted on approved product concepts. Use of computer-aided design software and working models are common.
Commercialization. At this stage the product is ready for market. The product form is selected and a complete marketing mix is designed for each target market.
This slide relates to the material on pp. 213-218.
Instructor’s Note: This slide corresponds to Exhibit 9-4 on p. 214 and Transparency 73. See also Overhead 97.
Instructor’s Note: This slide introduces the major stages in new-product development. Each area is discussed in more detail on later slides.
Summary Overview
Market segmentation is a two-step process of: (1) naming broad product-markets and (2) segmenting these broad product-markets in order to select target markets and develop suitable marketing mixes to serve them. This process fails too often because the marketer does not realize the complexities of consumer behavior and attempts to categorize a market around too few consumer-related variables of distinction. Segmenting should be considered an aggregating process of clustering people with similar needs into individual market segments.
Market Segmentation
A market segment is a relatively homogeneous group of customers who will respond to a marketing mix in a similar way.
Good market segments meet the following criteria:
1. Homogeneous Within. The customers in a market segment should be as similar as possible with respect to their likely responses to marketing mix variables and their segmenting dimensions.
2. Heterogeneous Between. The customers in different segments should be as different as possible with respect to their likely responses to marketing mix variables and their segmenting dimensions.
3. Substantial. The segment must be big enough to be profitable.
4. Operational. The segmenting dimensions should be useful for identifying customers and deciding on marketing mix variables.
This slide relates to the material on pp. 61-62.
Instructor’s Note: This slide corresponds to Exhibit 3-6 on p. 62 and Transparency 26. See also Transparency 27.
