Kan he do it?
菅直人，兼职人？
And the next contestant, please
有请下一位
Jun 3rd 2010 | TOKYO | From The Economist print edition
IN A country where only one prime minister has lasted more than three years in the past 20 (the
uncharacteristically charismatic Junichiro Koizumi), people are understandably blasé about who
will be the next man in the top job. This time could be different. If the leader can step out from
under the shadow of Japan’s last old-fashioned factional boss, the Democratic Party of Japan’s
Ichiro Ozawa, he could usher in a new sort of coalition politics, with the potential to be either
disastrously messy or refreshingly clean.
过去的 20 年内,日本的几任首相中只有一人（万人迷小泉纯一郎）的任期超过了三年。在这
样的一个国家里，国民对首相一职花落谁家的问题心生厌烦也是可以理解的。不过这一次可
能会与众不同。新任领导人如果能够摆脱受制于日本最后一位老派党首——民主党的小泽一
郎的阴影，就可以迎来一个全新的联合政府。而摆在这一联合政府面前的有两条路:要么是
不堪入目的混乱，要么是清风拂面的廉政。
The most likely successor has long been Naoto Kan, the 63-year-old finance minister and deputy
prime minister. His pedigree would mark a change to the top in itself. Since Mr Koizumi resigned
in 2006, Japan has had five prime ministers, all of whom have been either the son or grandson of a
former prime minister. Of unflashy origin, the dogged Mr Kan made his own way up the political
ladder, gaining prestige in the mid-1990s when, as health minister, he exposed bureaucrats who
allowed the transfusion of HIV-tainted blood to haemophiliacs.
63 岁的副首相兼财政大臣菅直人一直是继任首相人选里呼声最高的。首先他的出身就将改
写日本高层政局。继 2006 年小泉纯一郎辞职之后，日本先后更换了五位首相，无一不顶着
前首相子孙的光环。菅直人虽然出身卑微，但却能坚韧不拔地一路独闯政坛，节节高升。20
世纪 90 年代中期，时任厚生大臣的菅直人将纵容给血友病患者输入带有艾滋病病毒的血液
制品一事的官僚移送法办，此举使他声名鹊起。
He had little macroeconomic experience before being appointed finance minister in January, but
gained a reputation among the ministry’s bureaucrats as a quick learner. They were thrilled that he
actually listened to them. In that job, he has stood out for two reasons: his willingness to begin
discussing—albeit gingerly—a rise in the consumption tax as part of a fiscal overhaul to reduce
Japan’s crushing debt burden; and justifiable criticism of the Bank of Japan for not doing enough
to end deflation.
菅直人在一月担任财政大臣之前，几乎没有过掌管过宏观经济，但在财政部的官员中，他却
享有“一学就会”的美誉。财政部的官员对菅直人果真采取他们的意见感到兴奋不已。任财臣
期间，菅直人凭借两点大放异彩：一是在如何将提高消费税作为整顿财政收入的一个环节，
以达到减轻日本泰山压顶般的债务的问题上，他愿意展开讨论（纵然是谨小慎微）；二是直
面日本银行在解决通货紧缩的问题上因力度不够遭受的正面批评。
But he has one big flaw. While in the cabinet, he made no attempt to distance himself from the
prime minister or from Mr Ozawa when they were both caught up in debilitating
campaign-funding scandals that clobbered the government’s popular standing. “If Mr Kan is
chosen, he may have the same problem that Mr Hatoyama faced. The public might consider him to
be another puppet of Mr Ozawa,” says Akihiko Tanaka, a professor of international politics at the
University of Tokyo. He would need to show that he represents a clean break from the LDP-style
ancien régime if disillusioned voters are to be persuaded that the DPJ represents a real change
from the past.
但菅直人有一大弱点。在内阁时，在任首相与小泽一郎曾深陷政治献金的丑闻中，该丑闻大
大降低了政府的支持率，但尽管如此，菅直人依然无意与首相或小泽一郎划清界限。“如果
菅直人当选首相，他可能会面临与鸠山一样的问题。公众可能会将他视为小泽一郎的又一个
傀儡。” 东京大学国际政治教授 Akihiko Tanaka 如是说道。如果要让心灰意冷的选民相信日
本民主党将带来翻天覆地的变化，菅直人就必须向人们展示：他代表着与自民党式的腐朽政
权的决绝。
Global economic policy
全球经济政策
Monetary illusions
货币政策的错觉
Central bankers are not magicians. Don’t count on them to conjure up remedies if the rich economies flag
央行银行家并不是魔法师。如果富裕经济体衰退，不要指望他们能够变出弥补措施。
Sep 2nd 2010
OVER the past few years the reputations of the rich world’s central bankers have fluctuated
wildly. When the financial crisis struck, they were blamed for allowing the housing and credit
bubbles to build, and for failing to foresee the bust. Later they were lionised for preventing a new
Depression with bold actions to support the financial system. Now a third stage is at hand, one of
dangerously outsized expectations.
在过去几年，富裕世界央行银行家的名声浮动很大。金融危机来临时，人们指责他们任由住
房和信贷泡沫滋长，没有预测到破产。后来他们采取大胆行动支持金融体系，防止了新的大
萧条，因而受到重视。如今第三阶段就在眼前，一项危险的过高期望。
With most governments unable, or unwilling, to offer more fiscal stimulus, central banks are left
solely responsible for propping up the flagging recovery. The phenomenon is most obvious in
America. Its economy has weakened, yet the default path for fiscal policy is a hefty tightening as
the Obama stimulus wanes, the states slash spending to balance their budgets and the Bush tax
cuts expire. With any discussion of remedies by politicians drowned out by partisan positioning
before the mid-term elections in November, disproportionate hope is pinned on Ben Bernanke’s
Federal Reserve. Hence the attention paid to his recent speech at Jackson Hole, which laid out,
with great confidence, what further steps the Fed could take.
由于大多数政府不能或者不愿意提供更多的财政刺激，只剩下央行银行家为扶持乏力的复苏
负责了。这种现象在美国最显著。美国经济已经疲软，但是随着刺激计划的消失，各州削减
开支以平衡其预算和布什减税政策的到期，财政政策的违约路线是一项巨大的紧缩。由于政
治家们对于弥补政策的任何讨论都被 11 月份中期选举之前的党派立场淹没，巨大的希望落
在了本•伯南克的美联储上。因此，他最近在杰克逊荷尔发表的演说受到了关注，他的演说
充满自信，详细地阐述了美联储可以采取的进一步行动。
America is in the vanguard, but excessive faith in central bankers is unlikely to stop there. Some
rich economies, notably Germany, have done well of late. But if America’s slowdown persists,
they too will flag, particularly as fiscal austerity kicks in (see article). In 2011, on current plans,
the rich world is set for its biggest collective budget cuts in at least 40 years. Already there is talk
of the Bank of England offsetting the pain by printing more money to buy more government bonds
(a policy known as quantitative easing). The European Central Bank seems ready to maintain its
special liquidity facilities for longer, and may be pushed to do more when the recovery slows.
Currency movements will add to the pressure. The Bank of Japan this week said it would extend
the availability of cheap loans to banks, in a bid to push down the yen.
美国走在了前沿，但是对央行银行家过度的的信任不太可能到此为止。一些富裕经济体，尤
其是德国，最近表现出众。但是如果美国的经济持续放缓，它们也将放缓，尤其是在财政紧
缩开始实施的时候。按照目前的计划，2011 年，富裕世界将集体削减至少 40 年来最大的预
算。据说，英格兰银行将印刷更多的钱来购买更多的政府债券（即所谓的定量宽松政策），
从而消除痛苦。欧洲央行似乎准备更长时间地保持其特殊的流动手段，复苏放缓时，可能被
迫发挥更加有所作为。货币移动将增加压力。本周，日本银行表示将延长对各银行的廉价贷
款期限，以便使日元贬值。
In ordinary times it makes sense to leave the central banks to stabilise the economy while
governments repair their finances. Cheaper money is an obvious offset to tighter budgets and,
historically, many of the most successful fiscal adjustments have been matched by looser
monetary policy. But these are not ordinary times. Central banks cannot cut short-term rates any
further. And in many places the recovery is sluggish for a reason that also renders central banks
less effective: economies are deleveraging as households, in particular, rebuild their savings and
pay down debt. If people do not want to borrow, monetary policy, although not impotent, gives a
smaller lift to the economy than it normally would.
在普通时期，央行负责稳定经济，而各政府修复财政具有一定的意义。廉价的货币显然是紧
缩预算的一种补偿，从历史的经验来看，众多最成功的财政调整都有较宽松的货币政策配合。
但是现在不是普通时期。央行无法进一步降低短期利率。此外，在很多地方，复苏缓慢的原
因也是导致央行不那么有效的一个原因：尤其是随着家庭开始攒钱，偿还债务，各经济体开
始去杠杆化。如果人们不想贷款，尽管货币政策会起到一定的作用，但是对经济的提振作用
比正常情况下还要小。
Central bankers are also flying blind. With short-term policy rates at or near zero, getting more of
a monetary boost means expanding a set of instruments whose efficacy, and side-effects, are
ill-understood (see article). Mr Bernanke and his colleagues have no shortage of proposals, from
buying more government bonds to promising to keep interest rates low. But some ideas are
untested. And those that have already been used, such as printing money to buy government
bonds, are likely to suffer from diminishing returns. To make a further meaningful dent in bond
yields, for instance, the Fed might need to buy another $1 trillion-2 trillion of government debt.
央行银行家也是乱投医。由于短期政策利率接近或已经达到零，因此获得更多的货币提振意
味着扩展一系列手段，而这些手段的效果和副作用却并不知道。伯南克先生及其同事并不缺
少提议，从购买更多的政府债券到承诺保持低利率。但是一些想法并没有经过考验。那些已
经使用过的手段如印刷更多的钱来购买政府债券，可能遭受日益减少的回报。比如，为了进
一步减少有意义的债券收益率，美联储可能需要再购买 1-2 万亿美元的政府债务。
Not by the Fed alone
美联储无法独立完成
None of this means central bankers should not do what they can. They do have tools to try to ward
off deflation, and should use them. However, they may not be able to live up to expectations. They
can’t transform a sluggish recovery from a financial crisis into a vibrant one. Nor, if the expansion
stumbles, can they prop it up alone.
然而，所有这些并不意味着央行银行家不应该尽自己的责任。他们确实拥有努力消除通货紧
缩的手段，必须利用它们。然而，他们可能无法不负所望。他们无法将金融危机的缓慢复苏
转变为强劲复苏。如果扩展受阻，他们也不能单独扶持它。
Responsibility for boosting growth must be more evenly split with politicians. Only politicians can
address the structural problems that are also holding back the rich world’s economies, such as the
housing debt in America and the barriers to hiring in parts of Europe. Only politicians in countries,
notably including America, that still have room for fiscal stimulus can ensure that it is used to
complement monetary policy. And only politicians can couple stimulus with longer-term pension
and tax reform, so that investors do not lose faith in sovereigns’ future solvency. Such a
combination (however difficult given the electoral cycle in America) would avoid damaging the
economy with ill-timed austerity now, and increase the effectiveness of bigger central-bank
purchases of government bonds.
政治家必须承担促进经济增长的更加均匀的责任。只有政治家们才能解决对富裕经济体发展
也有阻碍作用的结构性问题，比如美国的住房债务和欧洲部分国家的雇佣障碍。有些国家
（显然包括美国）仍然还有财政刺激空间，只有这些国家的政治家才能保证财政刺激被用于
补充货币政策。此外，只有政治家们才能同时实施刺激计划和进行较长期的养老金和税收改
革，这样投资者才不会对未来主权债务偿还能力失去信任。在如今实施不合时宜的紧缩政策
的情况下，这种结合（考虑到美国的选举周期，这种结合非常困难）可以避免损害到经济，
并且可以增强央行增加购买政府债券所取得的效果。
It is heady stuff for central bankers to be seen, once again, as saviours. But they cannot do it alone.
央行银行家再次被视为救星令人激动。但是他们无法独立完成这项任务。
The problem of space pollution
太空污染问题
Junk science
除脏科学
Scientists are increasingly worried about the amount of debris orbiting the Earth
科学家们越来越担忧环地轨道上的那些太空垃圾
Aug 19th 2010
FEBRUARY 10th 2009 began like every other day in Iridium 33’s 11-year of a
constellation of 66 small satellites in orbit around the Earth, it spent its time whizzing through
space, diligently shuttling signals to and from satellite phones. At 3pm a report suggested it might
see some excitement: two hours later it would pass less than 600 metres from a defunct
communications satellite called Cosmos 2251. It did. A lot less. The two craft collided and the
result was hundreds of pieces of shrapnel more than 10cm across, and thus large enough to track
by radar—and goodness knows how many that were not. This accident came two years after the
deliberate destruction by the Chinese of their Fengyun-1C spacecraft in the test of an anti-satellite
weapon. That created over 2,000 pieces of junk bigger than 10cm, and an estimated 35,000 pieces
more than 1cm across. Together, these incidents increased the number of objects in orbit at an
altitude of 700-1,000km by a third (see chart).
2009 年 2 月 10 日，这天的开始，就像“铱星 33 号”11 岁生涯中的任何一天一样，毫无异兆。由 66 颗小铱星组成
的铱星群在绕地轨道上的太空高速运行，孜孜不倦地在铱星和卫星电话间来回发送信号，铱
星 33 号是其中的一颗，今天是它生命的终结时刻。下午三时，一份报道提示，铱星 33 号可
能会出现某种令人激动的景象：两小时后，它将以少于 600 米的距离从一颗已报废的叫作“宇
宙 2251 号”的通信卫星旁掠过。它确实掠过了，距离却少了很多。结果是两星相撞，产生
了无数大于 10 厘米的碎片，而且大到足以通过雷达来跟踪——只有老天才知道究竟有多少
碎片。这种事两年前就有了，两年前，中国搞了一次反卫星武器试验，试验中有目的地摧毁
了一颗中国自己的“风云—1 号 C ”卫星。那次毁星行动产生了 2000 多件大于 10 厘米太空
碎片，估计还四散了 35000 片大于 1 厘米的碎片。这些事故使离地 700-1000 公里的轨道上
运行的太空物增加了三分之一（见图表）。
Such low-Earth orbits, or LEOs, are among the most desirable for artificial satellites. They are
easy for launch rockets to get to, they allow the planet’s surface to be scanned in great detail for
both military and civilian purposes, and they are close enough that even the weak signals of
equipment such as satellite phones can be detected. Losing the ability to place satellites safely into
LEOs would thus be a bad thing. And that is exactly what these two incidents threatened. At
orbital velocity, some eight kilometres a second, even an object a centimetre across could knock a
satellite out. The more bits of junk there are out there, the more likely this is to happen. And junk
begets junk, as each collision creates more fragments—a phenomenon known as the Kessler
syndrome, after Donald Kessler, an American physicist who postulated it in the 1970s.
这类低地轨道（或叫 LEOs）是人造卫星最理想的轨道。这类轨道很容易通过发射火箭到达，
这类轨道使地球表面的军事和民用目标得到非常详尽的扫描，这类轨道离地相当近，甚至如
卫星电话等设备的微弱信号都可以捕捉到。因此，将卫星置入低地轨道安全运行这一可能性
的失去，原本就是一件坏事。而这两次事件的威胁所引起的恰恰就是这种坏事。该轨道的运
行速度约每秒八公里，即使碰上一个一厘米大小的物体，也会使一颗卫星毁灭。在该轨道上
的碎片越多，就越有可能产生碎片。碎片生碎片，因为每次碰撞产生更多的碎片——这就形
成一种叫“凯斯勒综合症”的现象，也就是美国物理学家唐纳德·凯斯勒在上世纪七十年代创
立的一种假说。
According to the European Space Agency (ESA) the number of collision alerts has doubled in the
past decade. Nicholas Johnson, the chief scientist for orbital debris at ESA’s American equivalent,
NASA, says modelling of the behaviour of space debris “most definitely confirms the effect
commonly referred to as the Kessler syndrome”. Even the National Security Space Office at the
Pentagon is worrying about whether a tipping-point has been reached, or soon will be.
根据欧洲航天局(ESA)所述，卫星碰撞报警次数在最近十年增加了一倍。与 ESA 地位相当的
美国国家航空和宇宙航行局（NASA）轨道碎片首要科学家尼古拉斯・约翰逊又说，太空碎
片行为模拟试验“非常确凿地证实了平常所称的凯斯勒综合症所指的现象”。甚至美国五角大
楼的国家太空安全办公室也在担心：[碎片灾难]的临界点是已经到达呢，还是将要到达。
Concerns like Dr Kessler’s have caused launch agencies to take more care about what they get up
to. In particular, accidental explosions in orbit have been reduced by depressurising redundant
rockets after they have released their satellites. Also, the number of spy satellites launched has
fallen since the demise of the Soviet Union. Nevertheless, there is still a problem.
与凯斯勒博士的假说相类似的担心实际已促使卫星发射部门更加注意其发射行为。特别是在
轨道上的意外撞击事故已经实现了减少，这是通过在轨道释放卫星时减少不必要的箭体[残
留]来实现的。此外，自苏联解体以来，间谍卫星的发射数量也下降了。不过，问题仍在。
Scouring the skies
太空大扫除
The real threat now comes from collisions between things that are already up there—so much so
that since the demise of Iridium 33, the normally secretive Strategic Command (Stratcom) of
America’s Defence Department has become rather helpful. Brian Weeden, an expert on space
debris at the Secure World Foundation, a think-tank, says Stratcom now screens every operational
satellite, every day, looking for close approaches, and notifies all operators. Even the Chinese?
“Everybody,” he says, “the Russians, the Chinese, even the Nigerians.” This means that satellites’
owners have better information with which to decide whether to use a small amount of their
precious fuel reserves to avoid a collision.
现在，真正的威胁来自那些已经在轨道运行的物体间的碰撞——这个问题已非常严重，以致
于像美国国防部那个通常神秘兮兮的战略安全处（战备通信司令部）自从铱星 33 号撞毁以
来，也愿意多多少少提供一些帮助。世界基金会（系一个智囊团）的太空碎片问题专家布赖
恩•威登说：战备通信司令部现在每天都在寻求更加有效的方法观察每颗业务卫星，并将观
察结果通知每个卫星经营者。甚至还包括通知中国？他说：“通知及于每个国家，俄国、中
国、甚至尼日利亚”。这就意味着，卫星业主们获得了更好的信息，以决定是否使用[卫星上]
不多的、宝贵的燃料储备来避免碰撞事故的发生。
But even this would not be enough. What is needed is a way to clean up the junk so that it is no
longer a problem. Ideas for doing this are growing almost as fast as space debris. One proposal,
originally made a decade ago by the American armed forces, would be to use ground-based lasers
to change the orbits of pieces between 1cm and 10cm across by vaporising parts of their surfaces.
This would produce enough thrust to cause the debris to re-enter the atmosphere. The proposal
suggested a single laser facility would be enough to remove all junk of this size in three years.
但这还不够。真正需要的，是一种清除太空碎片的方法，使太空碎片不再是问题。清除太空
碎片的主意迅速成熟起来，成熟的速度几乎像太空垃圾的增长速度一样快。有一个最初是由
美国军方于十年前提出的主意——用地面激光汽化 1 至 10 厘米的碎片的表面部分，使之运
行轨道改变。这种方式会产生足够大的推力使碎片重新进入大气层。该主意称：三年内，单
束激光的能量将足以清除所有 1 至 10 厘米的太空碎片。
Another way of slowing junk down, and thus causing it to burn up in the atmosphere, was
proposed this month by Alliant Techsystems, a firm based in Minneapolis. Alliant suggests
building special satellites enclosed in multiple spheres of strong, lightweight materials. Debris
hitting such a satellite would give up momentum—and thus velocity—with each collision. As a
bonus, many objects large enough to cause damage would be shattered by the collisions into
fragments too small to cause serious harm.
还有一种方法是使碎片的速度降低，进而进入大气层烧掉，这种方法是在本月由设在明尼阿
波利斯能源公司 Techsystems 提出的。能源公司建议，研制一种特殊卫星，这种卫星外面用
各种强度好、质地轻的材料包裹起来。碎片撞击这种卫星时，动能减弱、其速度也因每次撞
击而慢下来。其结果是，许多足以造成严重损害的碎片会因撞击而碎成很小的、不再对卫星
造成损害的碎片。
However, many space agencies are considering a third option: robot missions that would dock
with dead satellites and fire rockets either to boost them into “graveyard” orbits or to deorbit them
completely, so they crashed into the sea. Jer-Chyi Liou, an expert on orbital debris at NASA,
estimates that if such a mission started in 2020, and removed the five objects most likely to create
future debris, it would more or less solve the space-junk problem.
不过，许多航天局正在考虑的是选择第三的类办法：把机器人派上天去，由它们去把那些报
废卫星和已烧尽的火箭残体捉倒，然后将其推进“死亡轨道”或将其坠入大海。美国航空航天
局轨道残骸专家 Jer-Chyi Liou 估计，如果在 2020 年开始这种机器人扫天，并消除五个很可
能形成未来残骸的太空物的话，它也将或多或少解决了太空垃圾问题。
A knock-out blow?
ESA is thinking about this sort of solution, too. It is the owner of what has—perhaps
unfairly—been termed “possibly the most dangerous piece of space debris” by a recent article in
SpaceNews. The debris in question is Envisat, one of the largest Earth-observation satellites yet
built. At the moment it is still working, but when its fuel runs out, sometime between 2016 and
2018, it will become a giant piece of junk—one that will remain in a crowded orbit for 150 years.
Or not. For even conservative estimates suggest there is one chance in four that it will be destroyed
in a collision during that period.
欧空局也在考虑这种解决方案。《太空杂志》最近有篇文章说：欧空局是一个被称作“或许是
最危险的太空废弃物”的主人（或许这种说法不公平）。这个热议中废弃物就是指的 Envisat
星，它是尚在运行中的最大的地球观测卫星之一。尽管它目前仍在工作，但其燃料会 2016
年至 2018 的某个时刻耗尽，届时它成为一块巨大的太空垃圾且将在拥挤的轨道上存续 150
年。或者不到 150 年。即使根据保守的估计，在此期间因撞而毁的机率将达到四分之一。
On the face of things, all this consideration of the problem is good. But this being space, where
matters military are never far from the minds of those who think about it, there remains a serious
question.
从形式上看，所有国家对太空碎片问题的关注都是善意的。但这些问题仍然非同小可，因为
太空对军事有重要影响的想法从未远离那些想把太空用于军事目的人。
Satellites are crucial to modern warfare. They spy on battlefields and on even the peaceful
activities of enemies, rivals and questionable allies. They provide communication links. Knocking
them out—as the Chinese practised with Fengyun-1C—would be a useful military trick.
卫星是现代战争的关键。卫星监视战场，甚至监视敌人、竞争对手和可疑盟国的和平活动。
卫星提供通讯联系。打掉卫星（就像中国在试验中击毁“风云—1 号 C ”卫星一样）将是很有
用的军事手段。
Any programme designed to remove satellites from orbit thus makes military types from other
countries nervous. Some people, Mr Weeden among them, argue that such fears can be overcome
if there is international co-operation over exactly which objects are removed and who is doing
what. It would certainly be in everyone’s interest to do so.
无论哪种从轨道上清除卫星垃圾的设计方案都使其他国家产生军事紧张情绪。一些人（其中
有 Weeden 先生）坚持认为，如果在该清除哪些太空垃圾和由谁去清理上实行完全的国际合
作，那么这类紧张情绪是可以克服的。这种合作会使人人受益
Psychology
心理学
Faith and faithfulness
信仰和忠诚
Praying for your partner stops you straying
为你的情侣虔诚祈祷使你不去沾花惹草
Aug 26th 2010
INFIDELITY is rampant in nature. Birds, mammals, amphibians and even fish all cheat if the conditions are right, forcing mates to
remain perpetually vigilant. People are no different. Although cheats are publicly condemned, or in some cases impeached,
infidelity is common and public disapproval does little to dissuade the sinner. The disapproval of God, however, is a different
matter, and a new study suggests that prayer can indeed guide people away from adulterous behaviour.
不忠是自然界中滥生无控的现象。鸟类、哺乳动物、两栖动物、以至鱼类一旦在条件许可的情况下都会四处留情，迫使其
配偶不得不时刻严密提防。人类也一样。虽然偷情在公开场合下受到谴责，或在某些特例中更有被弹劾的遭遇。但不忠仍
然相当普遍，对不忠之徒的公开谴责并没起到多少恫吓的作用。 不过，上帝对不忠的不悦则非同儿戏了。近期一项新研
究显示，祈祷可以确实引导人们避开沾花惹草的邪路。
Frank Fincham at Florida State University and his colleagues knew from looking at past studies that couples who attend religious
services are more likely to be satisfied with their marriages and less likely to be unfaithful than those who do not, but they did not
understand why. Speculating that the act of praying might itself cause romantic relationships to become more resilient, the team set
up an experiment to explore prayer and fidelity.
佛罗里达州立大学的弗兰克•芬查姆（Frank Fincham）博士和他的同事根据分析以往的研究发现，相比那些不去参加宗教
仪式的夫妇，参与夫妇对自己的婚姻满意程度比较高，而且较少涉及婚外情。但这些科学家知其然却不知其所以然。他们
推测：也许祈祷这种形式的本身使情侣的浪漫关系变得更富于韧性，为此他们设计了一项探究祈祷与忠诚两者关联的实验。
The researchers recruited 83 undergraduates who reported both being in a romantic relationship and praying at least occasionally.
Participants were given a survey that is used by psychologists to measure levels of infidelity on a nine-point scale (with nine being
highly unfaithful). The survey instructed them to think of the person that they were most attracted to besides their partner and then
asked questions like how aroused they felt in that person’s presence, how emotionally intimate they had been with him or her, and
how physically intimate they had been. In a second survey, participants were asked to state how strongly they agreed with
statements like “my relationship with my partner is holy and sacred”, by rating levels of agreement on a nine-point scale (with nine
indicating very strong agreement).
研究人员招聘了83名大学生，这些学生说自己既有恋爱关系也至少会偶尔祈祷。受测者先接受第一份调查，心理学家跟据
该调查的答复用“1-9分”的等级来测量各人不忠的程度（9表示高度不忠）。这份调查要求学生择出除自己的情侣之外的最
佳意中人，然后回答一些问题，类如：一旦意中人现身时自己的性欲反应；已经与意中人的他或她在情感上的亲近以及彼
此之间的身体亲密程度。在第二份调查中，参与者被问及对一些说法是否同意：比如“我和我情侣的关系是圣神和圣洁
的。” 然后用一个9分测量范围来选择自己的同意程度（9表示与“十分同意”十分接近）。
Following the survey, the participants were randomly assigned to one of four daily activities: praying for the well-being of their
partner, engaging in undirected prayer, thinking about positive aspects of their partner or reflecting upon their day. Participants did
as they were asked for four weeks, and kept written logs of what they were praying (or thinking). At the end of this period, the
team again measured infidelity and how sacred the participants felt their romantic relationships were.
调查之后，受测学生便随机性地分别去参与四项“每日活动”之一：为情侣的幸福快乐祈祷、无导向祈祷、静思情侣的种种
优点、反思每一天。参与者按照要求度过4周，并记下每天祈祷（或思考）的内容。4周后，科研组再次测量了每人的不忠
程度以及对自己情侣关系感到有多神圣。
Dr Fincham and his colleagues report in the Journal of Personality and Social Psychology that although all participants had similar
infidelity ratings, averaging , to start with, at the end those ratings varied considerably between the four groups. People who had
prayed for their partners averaged , significantly lower than their initial scores, whereas those who thought positively about their
partners or considered their day both showed ratings of —significantly higher.
芬查姆博士和他的同事在《人格与社会心理学杂志》上报告说，尽管所有参与者最初都有相近似的不忠值，平均为分，
但到了实验结束时，这些平均值在四个组之间却拉开了较大的距离。为情侣祈祷的人平均值为，相比他们的初始值有
显著减少；而那些从正面考量情侣或反思一天生活的这两组得到了 ——【比】有显著提高。
Be careful what you pray for
小心你所祈祷的是什么
What struck the team as particularly intriguing was that participants asked to engage in general prayer showed an average rating of
, a value much lower than they were seeing for the other two control conditions. This hinted to them that the mere act of praying
increased fidelity. In fact, things were more complicated than that. Four participants in the “undirected prayer” group had, without
prompting, decided to pray for their romantic partners on a daily basis. When Dr Fincham and his colleagues took this into
account, and shifted the scores of these specific participants to the “prayer for partner” group, they found that those who prayed for
partners showed an average infidelity score of , whereas those who engaged in undirected prayer had an average infidelity score
of . Undirected prayer, then, did not seem to make much difference.
让科研组惊讶而刮目相待的是，做无导向祈祷的那组受测试者得到了平均分，远低于另两个控制条件下所得分数。这
点似乎提示研究人员仅仅依靠祈祷就能提高忠诚度，而事实情况却尚待细究。 4名参与“无导向祈祷”小组的受测学生在没
有被要求的情况下，决定每天为他们的情人祈祷。当芬查姆博士等科研人员按此情形把这几人的分数转进了“为情侣祈祷”
组的时候，他们发现该组所得的不忠平均分成了，而参与“无导向祈祷”的达到了。结果显示，无向祈祷者【的不忠
诚】似乎没有太大的转变。
Scores reflecting participants’ views of how sacred their romantic relationships were changed during the four-week period as well.
Values at the start of the study were much the same among all participants, averaging . However, by the end of the study, those
who had prayed for their partners showed stronger beliefs that their relationships were sacred than those who had just had positive
thoughts about their partners, with average scores of and respectively. Dr Fincham suspects that the act of praying about
romantic partners leads people to view their relationship as something sacred and not to be damaged. This, he argues, is the force
that is reducing infidelity in the study.
测量分数另外反映出参与者在为期4周的时间内对恋爱关系圣洁程度的看法也发生了变化。所有参与同学的初始不忠值都
相差无几，平均为分。然而到研究结束时的数据显示，替情侣们祈祷的组员更加相信自己的情侣关系是圣洁的，其比
分高过了正面评估情侣的那组，两组平均值分别是 及。芬查姆博士推测说，为情人祈祷的行为导致人们认为情侣关
系是圣洁的且不容受到伤害。他认为这就是此次研究中降低不忠程度的力量。
Yet even with these findings, the team knew that a crucial limitation of their work was that all of the data were self-reported by the
people doing the praying. To know for certain whether praying for romantic partners strengthened relationships, they needed to go
further. In a follow-up experiment they therefore asked 23 undergraduates who had romantic partners, and who stated that they
prayed at least occasionally, either to pray for their partners daily for four weeks or to think positive thoughts about them every day
for the same amount of time.
然而，即使得到了这些调查结果，科研人员也很清楚此项研究尚存在最为关键的限制：即所有的数据都是做祈祷同学的自
我汇报。想要确定是否“替情侣祈祷”真能加强情侣关系，他们还需要更进一步的实验。在一个后续实验中，他们要求23名
有情侣并申明至少也会偶尔做祈祷的大学生持续4周每日或为情侣祈祷，或每日从正面思量情人。
At the end of this period, participants came to the laboratory with their partners and, while being videotaped together, were asked
to describe the short or long-term future of their relationship. The videos were then presented to five trained research assistants
who were unaware of the goals of the study. They were asked to rate the level of commitment that the participants demonstrated
towards their partners during the interaction on a scale of one to seven (with one indicating a participant who was “not at all
committed” and seven indicating “extreme commitment”).
在这一阶段结束时，参与学生及其情侣一起到实验室来表达对相互之间关系的近期或远景的看法并进行录像。这些录像然
后交给5位对实验目的并不知情的研究助理，让他们为参与者对情侣所表示的承诺程度打分。分值范围为1-7（1表示“全然
无意”，7表示“极度投入”）。
The team found that those who prayed earned scores that were significantly higher, averaging , than those who had thought
positively, who averaged . This suggested that what participants had reported about themselves in the first study accurately
reflected how prayer affected their romances. Thus, whereas other animal species must resort to constant vigilance to reduce the
risks of infidelity, humans (or at least those who have a faith) have an extra tool in the box: religion. Indeed, people worried about
potentially cheating spouses may find praying together a better safeguard against adultery than checking mobile-phone bills and
scrutinising credit-card receipts—and one that builds trust, rather than destroying it.
研究小组发现，那些祈祷者所得的分数（平均）明显高过了念情人之好者（）。这点说明了被测试者在第一部分研究
中的自我汇报是准确的，它如实反映了祈祷如何影响了他们的恋情。如此说来，当其它动物还处在必须时刻防范，以减情
侣滥情风险之时，人类（或至少是那些有信仰/信任的）已经多出了一个额外的工具：宗教。 其实，因为配偶的潜在出轨
危险而时刻忧心挂肠的情人，与其检查对方的移动电话费、细究其信用卡收据，不如尝试一个更好的对付方法: 双双一同
做祷告——通过它搭建两者之间的信任，而不是摧毁。
The economy 经济
A joyless recovery
经济总算复苏了
Oct 29th 2009 | WASHINGTON, DC
From The Economist print edition
New figures suggest that America has at last moved out of recession
最新数字表明，美国终于从衰退中走了出来
Getty Images
ON October 29th the government reported that gross domestic product rose at an annualised rate
of % in the third quarter compared to the second. This was the first increase since the second
quarter of 2008. It backs up other evidence that the recession ended in the third quarter or just
before, though the official decision, by the National Bureau of Economic Research, a group of
academic economists, is still some way off. Robert Gordon, a member of this group, is confident
that the recession, which began in December 2007, ended in June. But at 18 months that would
still make it the longest since 1933.
据10月29日政府的报告称，第三季度美国的国内生产总值（GDP）按年率计算，比第二季度
增长了%，这是自2008年第二季度以来的首次增长。这个数据支持了其它表明经济衰退止
步于第三季度或第三季度之前的说法。即便学院派经济学家团体——美国国家经济研究局
（NBER）的正式结果出炉尚待时日，但其成员罗伯特•戈登（Robert Gordon）很有信心地表示，
从2007年12月开始的经济衰退在6月结束了。然而长达18个月的衰退期，仍然使这次经济危
机成为了自1933年大萧条以来之最。
Consumers are sceptical. Their confidence fell in October, according to the Conference Board, a
research group. A poll for The Economist by YouGov found that 35% of respondents think the
economy is getting worse; just 28% think it is getting better. Unemployment is still rising, and
even a White House adviser, Christina Romer, predicts it will remain “severely elevated”
throughout next year. A lot of third-quarter growth was the result of temporary government
stimulus. Consumer spending grew by %, the best since early 2007, largely because people
were buying new cars in July and August with federal “cash for clunkers”. Sales have since fallen
back. Residential construction leapt %, the first advance since the end of 2005, helped by an
$8,000 tax credit for buyers of new homes. But new home sales dipped % in September, as the
time to qualify for the credit expired.
但是消费者们仍持怀疑态度。依据美国经济谘商局（Conference Board，一个研究组织）公
布的调查结果，消费者的信心在10月份出现下滑。YouGov 调查公司为《经济学人》杂志做
的民意调查中显示， 35%的受访者认为经济正在越变越坏；仅仅28%的人认为经济有所好
转。失业人数继续攀升，甚至白宫顾问克里斯蒂娜•罗默预言，失业率在明年一年中仍将大幅
升高。第三季度的增长是源于政府的短期经济刺激。消费支出增长了%，创下2007年来最
好的一次，但大部分是源于7，8月份的联邦“旧车换现金”政策，促使人们在去买新车。政策
一结束，销量就回落了。另一方面，托8000美元买新房就扣税的福，住宅建设急剧增长%，这是2005
年年末以来的首次增长。但是到了九月，新房销量下降了%，也正好是在优惠终止的时
候。
Voters are more worried about the economy than anything else, YouGov found, and they
disapprove of Barack Obama’s handling of it by a margin of 47% to 43%. That has spurred Mr
Obama and Democratic leaders in Congress to explore new stimulus measures. One would extend
unemployment insurance benefits by 14-20 weeks for some workers. Another would extend a
subsidy for health insurance for those who lose it along with their jobs. These measures make
sense; the recipients badly need the money and will probably spend every penny.
YouGov 还发现，再没有什么比经济更让选民担心的了，对于奥巴马的经济处理方案，不赞同的比例为
47%，赞同的占43%。这个数字刺激了奥巴马和国会中的民主党们寻找新的经济刺激方法。其中
之一就是延长一些工人失业保险救济14到20个星期。还有一种方法可能就是帮助那些因丢失
工作而失去健康保险的人们，扩大他们健康保险津贴的范围。这些措施很明智，失业者都急
需钱，并且可能一分不剩的把领到的钱花掉。
A more dubious proposal would extend the new-home tax credit until next April and, reportedly,
offer a smaller $6,500 credit to people who already own a home. Also, Mr Obama wants to send
an additional $250 each to Social Security beneficiaries because they will get no cost-of-living
increase next year. This is daft: benefits are flat because inflation is negative, so real benefits have
actually risen.
一个更有风险的提议是将新房免税政策延续到明年四月，并且，据报道称，再提一个小额贷
款（6500美元）给那些已经有房的人们。除此之外奥巴马希望给每一个人领取社会保障金的
人增加250美元，因为他们明年的生活费不会有所增长。这样做很愚蠢，因为通胀率为负，
所以生活费不增加，但实际上，生活费已然增加了。
Calls for a new round of stimulus look premature. Temporary effects aside, growth in the third
quarter reflects the dynamics of a genuine recovery. Exports and equipment investment both rose.
Companies ran down inventories at a slower pace, a contributor to growth that should continue for
at least two more quarters. Construction is so low that, even with sales so depressed, the inventory
of unsold new homes has hit a 27-year low. This suggests that construction should expand further.
And Mr Gordon notes that employment is still falling because, following the pattern of recent
recessions, firms have aggressively slashed costs so that productivity has grown even as sales have
fallen. Profits seem to have already turned around, and Mr Gordon predicts employment will
follow by the first quarter of 2010.
要求采取新一轮的刺激举措还为时尚早，排除短期效应，第三季度的增长还是反映出了经济
恢复真正的动力。出口和设备投资都在增长，企业削减囤货的速度减缓，在接下来的至少两
个季度里仍会为经济增长贡献力量。建筑业打不起精神，但即便销售低迷，积存的新房已经
创下了27年新低。这说明建筑业将会更进一步。而且戈登注意到，以最近几次的经济衰退为
例来看，失业率依旧下降的原因是，企业已经强有力的削减了成本，提高了生产力，即便销
量下降。利润似乎已经开始好转，戈登预言2010年第一季度时，就业率将重新上升。
More stimulus now would add to an already dangerously high deficit. There may be greater need
for it in a year’s time, when the inventory boost will be waning, and this year’s $787 billion
stimulus plan is about to expire. Even then, more stimulus should be considered only if a
deficit-reduction plan is in place. In the meantime, monetary policy can assume the burden of
safeguarding growth. The markets expect the Federal Reserve to start raising interest rates by
May, and there is speculation that at its policy meeting on November 3rd and 4th it will water
down its current commitment to near-zero rates for “an extended period”. Given downward
pressure on inflation, the Fed could instead stay on hold all next year, providing a safety cushion
for the economy and taking some pressure off the battered federal budget.
现今的大部分经济刺激将增加已然高危的赤字。可能一年之后，这些措施更加必要，那时库
存逐渐变小，今年的7870亿的刺激计划也将过期。尽管那样，如果有了赤字缩减的计划，那
么更多的经济刺激将被纳入议程。同时，货币政策可以承担起保持增长的大任。市场预期美
联储五月可以提高利率，并且还有推断称11月3日和4日它的政策会议将会缓和当下在“发展
期”近乎0利率的承诺。美联储将对(市场的)通货膨胀给予压力，会在明年对利率进行调整，为经济发展提供一个
安全的条件，并且为捉襟见肘的联邦政府预算减轻压力。
Brazil's agricultural miracle
巴西农业奇观
How to feed the world
如何养活全世界
The emerging conventional wisdom about world farming is gloomy. There is an alternative
新兴的世界农业传统观念前景堪忧。我们找到了新的出路
From The Economist print edition | Aug 26th 2010
THE world is planting a vigorous new crop: “agro-pessimism”, or fear that mankind will not be
able to feed itself except by wrecking the environment. The current harvest of this variety of
whine will be a bumper one. Natural disasters—fire in Russia and flood in Pakistan, which are the
world’s fifth- and eighth-largest wheat producers respectively—have added a Biblical colouring to
an unfolding fear of famine. By 2050 world grain output will have to rise by half and meat
production must double to meet demand. And that cannot easily happen because growth in grain
yields is flattening out, there is little extra farmland and renewable water is running short.
世界各国的头脑中正疯长一种新的作物: "农业悲观主义"或者说他们担忧人类已经不能够养
活自己,除非通过破坏环境达到目的。当前的种种哀叹之声预示着这种作物即将丰收成熟。
俄罗斯和巴基斯坦是世界第五和第八大小麦生产国,分别遭受了火灾和水灾的侵袭,这些自然
灾害为日益呈现的饥馑恐慌添上了浓重的色彩。到2050年,世界谷物的产量必须增长50%,而肉
产量必须翻一番才能满足人类的生存需要。但这并不容易实现。因为谷物产量的增长正日趋
减缓,可用于耕种的土地愈见稀少,再生水资源正消耗殆尽。
The world has been here before. In 1967 Paul Ehrlich, a Malthusian, wrote that “the battle to feed
all of humanity is over… In the 1970s and 1980s hundreds of millions of people will starve to
death.” Five years later, in “The Limits to Growth”, the Club of Rome (a group of business people
and academics) argued that the world was running out of raw materials and that societies would
probably collapse in the 21st century.
但我们赖以生存的世界却从来没变。1967 年马尔萨斯人保罗.埃利希(Paul Ehrlich)曾写道 "
养活人类的战争已经终结...本世纪70和80年代将有成千上万的人因饥饿致死。"五年后,罗马
俱乐部 (由商业人士和学者组成的团体)在其"发展的极限"报告中指出世界的原材料正逐渐
耗尽,人类社会可能在21世纪面临灭亡。
A year after “The Limits to Growth” appeared, however, and at a time when soaring oil prices
seemed to confirm the Club of Rome’s worst fears, a country which was then a large net food
importer decided to change the way it farmed. Driven partly by fear that it would not be able to
import enough food, it decided to expand domestic production through scientific research, not
subsidies. Instead of trying to protect farmers from international competition—as much of the
world still does—it opened up to trade and let inefficient farms go to the wall. This was all the
more remarkable because most of the country was then regarded as unfit for agricultural
production.
然而一年后"发展的极限"效应显现,石油价格曾一度飙升,罗马俱乐部最深层次的担忧似乎得
到了证实。在历经了巨大的粮食进口净值后,一个国家决定要改变自己耕种的方式。变革的
部分动力源于该国担忧进口不到足够的粮食,所以决定依靠农业科学研究而不是外援来扩大
国内粮食生产。他们并没有沿袭世界大多数国家仍采用的保护本国农民免于国际竞争的做法,
而是放开贸易市场,让低效农业在竞争中得以淘汰。由于该国大部分地方被认为不适合农业
生产,因而这样的做法就更加受到人们关注。
The country was Brazil. In the four decades since, it has become the first tropical agricultural giant
and the first to challenge the dominance of the “big five” food exporters (America, Canada,
Australia, Argentina and the European Union).
这个国家就是巴西。四十多年来,它成为首个热带农业的龙头和第一个挑战 "五大"粮食出产
国(美国,加拿大,澳大利亚,阿根廷,欧盟)主导地位的国家。
Even more striking than the fact of its success has been the manner of it. Brazil has followed more
or less the opposite of the agro-pessimists’ prescription. For them, sustainability is the greatest
virtue and is best achieved by encouraging small farms and organic practices. They frown on
monocultures and chemical fertilisers. They like agricultural research but loathe genetically
modified (GM) plants. They think it is more important for food to be sold on local than on
international markets. Brazil’s farms are sustainable, too, thanks to abundant land and water. But
they are many times the size even of American ones. Farmers buy inputs and sell crops on a scale
that makes sense only if there are world markets for them. And they depend critically on new
technology. As the briefing explains, Brazil’s progress has been underpinned by the state
agricultural-research company and pushed forward by GM crops. Brazil represents a clear
alternative to the growing belief that, in farming, small and organic are beautiful.
与其成功的事实相比,更引人注目的是它一直以来采用的方法。巴西采用的方法或多或少与
农业悲观主义者的权威推荐背道而驰。对他们来说,坚持可持续发展是它最大的长处,这一点
在鼓励发展小农场和有机种植中得到了最好的实现。他们反对单种栽培和化肥添加,喜欢农
业研究但憎恶转基因植物,认为粮食在本地出售比拿到国际市场上交易更为重要。由于有富
饶的土地和充足的水源,巴西的农场也实现了可持续发展。他们的规模甚至比美国同业还大
数倍。如果国际市场对某种作物有需求,农民就购买生产资料并只按合理的规模出售他们的
作物。他们主要依靠的是新科技。正如简要中介绍的那样,巴西的进步源于国家农研公司的
不懈努力和转基因作物的推动。巴西提供给人们另一种明确的出路,让人们越发相信小型和
有机种植业有大好前景。
That alternative commands respect for three reasons. First, it is magnificently productive. It is not
too much to talk about a miracle, and one that has been achieved without the huge state subsidies
that prop up farmers in Europe and America. Second, the Brazilian way of farming is more likely
to do good in the poorest countries of Africa and Asia. Brazil’s climate is tropical, like theirs. Its
success was built partly on improving grasses from Africa and cattle from India. Of course there
are myriad reasons why its way of farming will not translate easily, notably that its success was
achieved at a time when the climate was relatively stable whereas now uncertainty looms. Still,
the basic ingredients of Brazil’s success—agricultural research, capital-intensive large farms,
openness to trade and to new farming techniques—should work elsewhere.
这种方法得到重视是由于以下三种原因。首先它的产量惊人,说它是奇迹也毫不过分。但他
们取得这样的成果却完全不是象欧美国家农民那样得到了政府巨额资金的支持。第二,巴西
人的种植方法可能对亚洲和非洲的最贫穷国家更有借鉴意义,因为巴西和他们一样也是热带
气候。它取得成功的部分原因是由于改良了非洲引进的草料植物和改善了印度引进的牛种品
质。当然它的种植方式在其它地方不容易得到推广有着众多的原因，最显著的是它每次的成
功都是在气候条件相对稳定的条件下取得,而现在不确定的因素随时出现。但是巴西的一些
基本做法还是可以为其他国家所借鉴学习,如成功的农业研究,资本密集型的大型农场,开放
的农业贸易和种植新科技。
Plant the plains, save the forests
平原种植，还地于林
Third, Brazil shows a different way of striking a balance between farming and the environment.
The country is accused of promoting agriculture by razing the Amazon forest. And it is true that
there has been too much destructive farming there. But most of the revolution of the past 40 years
has taken place in the cerrado, hundreds of miles away. Norman Borlaug, who is often called the
father of the Green Revolution, said the best way to save the world’s imperilled ecosystems would
be to grow so much food elsewhere that nobody would need to touch the natural wonders. Brazil
shows that can be done.
第三,巴西在平衡农业生产和保护环境方面采取了不同的方法。有人指责巴国靠夷平了亚马
逊森林来促进农业发展。那里也确实有大量破坏性的农业开发。但是过去四十年时间,大多
数变革是在距亚马逊森林数百英里的塞拉多（cerrado）进行的。经常被人称作"绿色革命之
父"的 Norman Borlaug[1]说,要想挽救处于危机中的世界生态系统,最好的方法是在人类不对
自然景观造成影响的地方能够种植大量的粮食。巴国表示这能够做到。
It also shows that change will not come about by itself. Four decades ago, the country faced a farm
crisis and responded with decisive boldness. The world is facing a slow-motion food crisis now. It
should learn from Brazil.
但它也表明变革不会不请自来。四十年前当巴国面临农业危机的时候,他们采取了大胆果断
的应对措施。现在世界正慢慢的陷入粮食危机。我们应该从巴西的成功中学到些什么。
Leaders
[注释]
[1] Norman Borlaug 经常被称为“拯救了 10 亿生命的人”和“绿色革命之父”。他在 19 世
纪 60 年代帮助印度和巴基斯坦人民和饥饿作斗争，曾为墨西哥的国际玉米和小麦改良中心
担任顾问。他赢得了 1970 年的诺贝尔和平奖，还接受过总统布什颁发的国会金质奖章，这
个奖项是国会颁发的最高非军人荣誉。在接受奖章的时候，他呼吁国会和行政部门提高农业
发展援助。他说这个世界需要更好和更多的技术对付饥饿。用他的话说就是“饥饿、贫穷和
痛苦是培养各种主义的一个很肥沃的土壤，这些主义中包括恐怖主义。”
