?캬웕톶 ꆯ1\1 .;，民/-....耐，2??0?08?年쓪第뗚4?期웚?第뗚2?9?뻭卷?????dVoúhwHt户。户中ion뿬恢遮쯙?3、뿚口转?蜜뫳后뗄的훐中맺国뎤民웚朋뺭经济볃培퓶l뎤i?ꆪꆪ一一从듓预풤期웚寿쫙命쏼、ꆢ죋人솦力资놾本춶投资角뷇뛈度考뾼察달?许탭?非럇，ꎮ돂陈?攻?(?뢴复떩旦듳大톧学社짧会믡发랢展햹与?公릫共릲政헾策닟学톧院풺，ꎬ上짏海몣?20?0?4?3?3?)?摘햪튪要:ꎺ퓚在?过ꎮ?去?죽三쪮十쓪年샯里ꎬ，훐中맺国샺历뺭经쇋了랢发듯达맺国볒家튪要폃用튻一냙百뛠多쓪年닅才쓜能췪完돉成뗄的죋人口뿚转变뇤过맽程돌ꆣ3生짺育폽率싊、ꆢ쯀死亡췶率싊快뿬速쯙下쿂降붵，ꎬ?接뷓踵而뛸至훁的뗄是쫇日죕益틦严퇏重훘的뗄少짙子ퟓ、ꆢ老샏龄쇤化뮯过맽程돌。ꆣ基믹于폚以틔上짏背놳景뺰，ꎬ本놾文컄扩삩展햹了쇋?Dì?a?mo?n?d??( 1??96?5? ?)뗄的믹基놾本뗾叠듺代模쒣型탍，ꎬ틔以不늻确좷?定뚨性탔寿쫙命쏼为캪切쟐入죫点뗣，ꎮ퓚在룶个죋人的뗄캢微맛观行탐为캪基믹础뒡上짏，ꎮ훂致솦力폚于럖分컶析以틔下쿂问컊题쳢:ꎺ훐中맺国쫇是럱否탨需튪要뗷调整헻当떱前잰的뗄计볆划뮮生짺育폽政헾策닟;ꎻ随쯦?ퟅ着人죋口뿚红뫬利샻的뗄逐훰渐붥消쿻失쪧，ꎮ中훐国맺长뎤期웚的뗄经뺭济볃增퓶长뎤如죧何뫎持돖续탸。ꆣ本놾文컄的뗄分럖析컶结뷡果맻显쿔示쪾，预ꎬ풤期웚寿쫙命쏼与폫生짺育폽率싊、ꆢ人죋力솦资本놾投춶资、ꆢ?储뒢蓄탮率싊以틔及벰经뺭济볃增퓶长뎤的뗄关맘系쾵是쫇非럇单떥调뗷性탔的뗄Oꆣ?关맘键볼词듊:ꎺ죋人口뿚转变뇤;ꎻ풤预웚期寿쫙命쏼;ꎻ죋人솦力资本놾投춶资;ꎻ뺭经볃济增퓶长뎤?中훐图춼分럖类샠号뫅ꎺ:?C9?2?一ꆪ?05??컄文献쿗标뇪志횾码싫:ꎺ?A?文컄章헂编뇠号뫅:ꎺ?1?0?07?ꆪ一?06?7?2?(?2?0?0?8?)??0?4一ꆪ?α?川?一?ꆪ?06??收쫕稿룥日죕期웚:ꎺ?2?0?0?8ꆪ-?0?4-ꆪ2?3??作ퟷ者헟简볲介뷩:ꎺ许탭非럇(??1?9?79?튻一)?ꎬ.쓐男ꎬ，붭江컷西늨泼퇴阳죋人ꎬ，뢴复떩旦듳大톧学늩博쪿士퇐研뺿究짺生，ꎬ퇐研뺿究랽方向쿲:ꎺ짧社믡会놣保헏障?二陈돂3生(?1??9?8?0튻一)?.ꎬ얮女ꎬ，훘重쟬庆人죋，ꎬ?复뢴떩旦大듳学톧博늩士쪿研퇐究뺿生짺，ꎬ研퇐究뺿方랽向쿲:ꎺ宏뫪观맛经뺭济볃政헾策닟。?2?0?世쫀纪볍已틑经뺭볻见횤证了쇋几벸乎뫵发랢짺生在퓚所쯹有폐国맺家볒的뗄预풤?上짏衡뫢量솿了쇋人죋们쏇对뛔未캴来살消쿻费럑的뗄偏욫好뫃程돌度뛈，ꎮ듓从而뛸对뛔个룶人죋?期웚寿쫙命쏼提쳡高룟?。而뛸在퓚上짏个룶世쫀纪볍的뗄中훐国맺，ꎬ短뛌短뛌的뗄3?0?年쓪时쪱?헻整个룶生짺命쏼周훜期웚的뗄行탐为캪决뻶策닟产닺生짺影펰响쿬。ꆣ?볤间샯里，ꎮ컒我쏇们뺭经샺历了쇋듓从高룟出돶生짺、ꆢ룟高쯀死췶亡到떽低뗍出돶生짺、ꆢ뗍低死쯀?믹基于폚上짏述쫶考뾼虑싇，ꎮ놾本컄文扩삩展햹了쇋?Di?a?mo?n?d?(? 1??96?5? ?)뗄的?亡췶的뗄쪷史无컞잰前例샽的뗄快뿬速쯙人죋口뿚转变뇤过맽程돌。ꆣ快뿬速쯙人죋口뿚转变뇤?基믹本놾叠뗾代듺模쒣型탍，ꎮ틔以늻不좷确定뚨性탔寿쫙命쏼为캪切쟐人죋点뗣，ꎮ퓚在룶个人죋的뗄?带듸살来日죕틦益퇏严훘重뗄的샏老쇤龄뮯化컊问쳢题ꎮ由평此듋引틽发랢了쇋学톧术쫵界뷧针헫?캢微观맛行탐为캪的뗄基믹础뒡上짏，ꎮ훂致솦力폚于룼更볓加좫全쏦面뗘地퇐研究뺿预풤期웚寿쫙?对뛔人죋口뿚政헾策닟的뗄激벤烈쇒争헹论싛。ꆣ同춬时쪱，ꎮ짺生폽育싊率的뗄下쿂降붵和뫍预풤?命쏼、ꆢ죋人솦力资놾本춶投资폫与뎤长期웚经뺭济볃增퓶长뎤三죽者헟的뗄关맘系쾵，ꎮ给룸我컒?期웚寿쫙命쏼的뗄延퇓长뎤又폖伴냩随쯦着ퟅ经뺭济볃的뗄高룟速쯙增퓶长뎤，ꎮ那쓇么쎴如죧何뫎?国맺未캴来살的뗄经뺭济볃发랢展햹提쳡供릩政헾策닟建붨议틩。?去좥뫏合理샭地뗘解뷢释쫍经뺭济볃增퓶长뎤与폫生짺育폽率싊下쿂降붵、ꆢ풤预期웚寿쫙命쏼延퇓?튻一、ꆢ쒣模탍型짨设置훃?长뎤并늢存듦的뗄现쿖象쿳，ꎮ뛔对폚于컒我맺国죧如뫎何펦应뛔对日죕益틦严퇏重훘的뗄人죋口뿚?1?ꎮ듺.代뇭表탔性볒家춥庭뗄的뻶决策닟?老샏뮯化而뛸保놣횤证持돖탸续的뗄经뺭볃济增퓶뎤长具뻟有폐非럇常뎣훘重要튪的뗄现쿖实쪵意틢?假볙定뚨社짧会믡由평无컞数쫽个룶代듺表뇭性탔家볒庭춥组ퟩ成돉，ꎮ每쎿个룶代듺表뇭?义틥?。좻然而뛸춨通过맽对뛔国맺内쓚췢外相쿠关맘人죋口뿚理샭论싛和뫍经뺭济볃增퓶长뎤理샭?性탔家볒庭춥的뗄成돉员풱都뚼是쫇同춬质훊的뗄并ꎮ늢且쟒都뚼可뿉以틔存듦活믮三죽期웚.ꎺ儿뛹?论싛研퇐究뺿的뗄比뇈较뷏，ꎮ컒我쏇们랢发쿖现，ꎮ맺国쓚内뗄的죋人뿚口톧学퇐研뺿究닠侧훘重于폚?童춯期웚、ꆢ돉成쓪年웚期뫍和샏老쓪年웚期ꆣ。듺代뇭表탔性탐行为캪죋人在퓚뗚第一튻期웚处뒦?从듓政헾策닟层닣面쏦来살分럖析컶生짺育폽率싊的뗄变뇤化뮯特쳘征헷，ꎮ而뛸没쎻有폐对뛔生짺?于폚未캴成돉年쓪阶뷗段뛎，ꎮ늻不뷸进죫入샍劳뚯动솦力쫐市뎡场듓从쫂事生짺产닺和뫍取좡得뗃?育폽行탐为캪的뗄经뺭济볃影펰响쿬因틲素쯘引틽起웰足ퟣ够릻的뗄重훘视쫓，ꎮ对뛔于폚人죋口뿚?收쫕죫入，ꎮ늢并쟒且탐行캪为죋人뗄的짺生쏼命훜周웚期킧效폃用늻不냼包含몬캴未成돉年쓪时쪱?结뷡构릹与폫뺭经济볃增퓶长뎤关맘系쾵的뗄研퇐究뺿又폖往췹往췹侧닠重훘于폚宏뫪观맛层닣面쏦?期웚，ꎮ틲因듋此늻不뾼考싇虑쯻他퓚在캴未돉成쓪年웚期뗄的쿻消럑费탐行为캪?。在퓚此듋阶뷗?的뗄实쪵횤证分럖析컶?。然좻而뛸在퓚现쿖实쪵中훐，ꎮ캢做맛观볒家춥庭쓚内늿部的뗄个룶人죋?뛎段，ꎬ뛹儿춯童춨通맽过뷓接쫜受뷌教폽育퓶增加볓自ퟔ身짭的뗄人죋力솦资本놾存듦量솿，ꎮ假볙?行탐为캪决뻶策닟쫇是影펰响쿬宏뫪观맛经뺭济볃变뇤量솿的뗄根룹本놾来살源풴。?就뻍国맺外췢?뚨定쯻他쎻没폐有自ퟔ컒我톧学쾰习뗄的쓜能솦力ꎮ其웤人죋力솦资本놾存듦量솿取좡决뻶于폚?뗄的볈既폐有퇐研뺿究컄文쿗献뛸而퇔言ꎬ基믹于폚生짺命쏼周훜期웚理샭论싛的뗄叠뗾代듺分럖?뢸父辈놲倾쟣注힢的뗄教뷌育폽时쪱间볤h??，和뫍父뢸辈놲自ퟔ身짭的뗄人죋力솦资本놾存듦?析컶框뿲볜架已틑뺭经成돉为캪分럖析컶죋人口뿚与폫经뺭济볃增퓶长뎤问컊题쳢的뗄常뎣用폃工릤?솿量血?。ꆣ在퓚第뗚二뛾阶뷗段뛎，ꎬ行탐为캪人죋进뷸入죫成돉年쓪期웚，生ꎮ짺育폽子ퟓ女얮，ꎮ?具뻟，ꎮ틲因캪为쯼它룸给뫪宏맛观뺭经볃济增퓶长뎤的뗄研퇐究뺿提쳡供릩了쇋做캢观맛基믹础뒡。?늢并进뷸入죫劳샍动뚯力솦市쫐场뎡提쳡供릩劳샍动뚯以틔获믱得뗃收쫕入죫，ꎬ同춬时쪱进뷸行탐?尤폈웤其퓚在ퟮ最뷼近뗄的쪮十쫽数쓪年볤间ꎮ众훚多뛠学톧者헟突춻破웆经뺭典뗤生짺命쏼周훜?消쿻费럑、ꆢ뒢储탮蓄뫍和뛔对ퟓ子얮女뗄的뷌教育폽。ꆣ볙假뚨定쎿每룶个돉成쓪年人죋拥펵有폐1?期웚샭理싛论믹基놾本볙假짨设뗄的뻖局쿞限ꎮ在퓚跨뿧期웚效킧用폃之횮间볤加볓入죫不늻确좷?떥单位캻时쪱间볤，ꎬ짺生폽育ퟓ子얮女탨需튪要占햼폃用固만뚨定的뗄单떥位캻时쪱间볤(??0<??뚨定性탔寿쫙命쏼变뇤量솿。ꆣ这헢个룶变뇤量솿的뗄重훘要튪之횮处뒦在퓚于폚，ꎮ쯼它实쪵际볊?v?<??l)? ꎬ•则퓲生짺育폽n?，ꎬ个룶子ퟓ女얮需탨要튪用폃时쪱仰?，。볙假뚨定쯻他컞无弹떯性탔????ꎮ?????ꎮ???????????ꎮ?Vo??ꎮ? (122)2∞8
캬웕톶 t\/’ ..~但/ξ_-4????쓪뗚?웚?뗚??뻭?2∞8年第4期第29卷ζ;1 Vo 'l1:hw~d户。户品tion地뗘提쳡供릩劳샍动뚯l?，，ꎬ并늢获믱得뗃单떥位캻ω?t?的뗄劳샍动뚯收쫕入죫，ꎬ其웤中훐l?，ꎺ=?人죋中훐平욽均뻹分럖配엤。?I?→?m，-튻h?凡，，ꎬω?，캪为릤工资싊率ꆣ。퓚在这헢个룶阶뷗段뛎的뗄开뾪始쪼，ꎮ不늻论싛父뢸?3?.ꎮ厂뎧商짌决뻶策닟?辈놲是쫇否럱仍죔然좻存듦活믮，ꎮ쯻他뮹还붫将뷓接쫜受살来自ퟔ父뢸辈놲的뗄遗틅产닺及벰其웤?假볙定뚨市쫐场뎡是쫇完췪全좫竞뺺争헹的뗄ꎮ厂뎧商짌面쏦临쇙C?o?b?b?-ꆪD?o?u?ꎮ?产닺生짺的뗄资本놾利샻得뗃b??ρ+?时??，ꎬ늢并퓚在웚期쒩末룸给ퟔ自벺己뗄的쎿每个룶子ퟓ?g?l?as?生짺产닺函몯数쫽:ꎺ?女얮留쇴下쿂遗틅产닺b?时?，ꎬퟜ总뛮额为캪b?，?+肉。ꆣ假볙定뚨代듺表뇭性탔行탐为캪人죋无컞?Y?,?=?K/?(?L,?l,?H,!- , ꎬ0?<?θ?'?<1? ?(?5?)? 风럧险쿕地뗘搜뛉过맽未캴成돉年쓪期웚和뫍成돉年쓪期웚，ꎮ而뛸以틔一튻个룶外췢生짺的뗄概룅?其웤中훐?K，是쫇物컯质훊资놾本듦存솿量由ꎮ평于폚代듺表뇭性탔个룶人죋生짺存듦?率싊p?存듦活믮到떽老샏年쓪期웚。?每쎿个룶行탐为캪人죋在퓚成돉年쓪期웚消쿻耗뫄所쯹继볌?的뗄三죽个룶阶뷗段뛎平욽均뻹每쎿期웚为캪2?5?年쓪左ퟳ右폒，ꎮ틲因듋此即벴쪹使假볙定뚨物컯?承돐的뗄遗틅产닺和뫍获믱得뗃的뗄劳샍动뚯收쫕入죫来살满싺足ퟣ成돉年쓪期웚的뗄消쿻费럑?质훊资本놾以틔每쎿年쓪5?ꎥ%的뗄比뇈例샽折헛旧뻉，ꎮ每쎿→튻期웚的뗄资本놾将붫完췪?矶??ꎬ，늢并붫将늿部럖分샍劳뚯动쫕收죫入进뷸行탐储뒢蓄탮s?，l削以틔满싺足ퟣ未캴来살老샏?全좫磨쒥损쯰殆듹尽뺡。ꆣL?，为캪劳샍动뚯力솦数쫽量솿，ꎬY?，?为캪总ퟜ产닺出돶，(ꎬ?)캪为컯物?쓪웚뗄쿻럑??ꎬꆣ?质훊资本놾的뗄产닺出돶弹떯性탔。ꆣ如죧果맻用폃?k产，=K斤A쯻'μ(LJ??뇭쪾컯훊?年期的消费d'+l。닎뾼?????뫍???????????뗄뗝맩탔짺쏼훜웚?本놾与폫有폐效킧劳샍뚯动的뗄比뇈싊率工ꎮ릤资率싊和뫍物컯质훊资本놾租ퟢ金뷰率싊可参考Lapan和Enders(1989)的递归性生命周期뿉?效킧用폃方랽程돌形탎式쪽，ꎮ룶个죋人퓚在헻整룶个짺生쏼命훜周웚期中훐从듓成돉年쓪期웚消쿻?分럖别뇰表뇭示쪾为캪tꎺ?费럑c?，?ꆢ샏、老쓪年웚期쿻消럑费?d+ꎬ、ꆢퟓ子얮女쫽数솿量뫍和쎿每룶个춬同훊质子ퟓ女얮福뢣?ωꆮ?，=(?1?-ꆪ8??，庐，?/ꎬ(?L，?l맠，H，?)J?H?，=(?l-ꆪ锄??，??咽?(?6?)?tJ샻?훐믱뗃킧폃?ꎺ?????????ꆣ????1利Vt+J中获得效用V，:R，=l+r，=俯L，l，H，用J?-Ø=?8?(?l?/ꎯk?，尸?ꎬ?(?7?)???????????????????????????二뛾、ꆢ뻹均뫢衡럖分析컶?V，=lnc，+plnd'+l+ηlnn，+αV'+l (1) 其웤中훐?η表뇭示쪾父뢸代듺对뛔子ퟓ代듺数쫽量솿的뗄偏욫好뫃，ꎬ?α表뇭示쪾父뢸?令쇮?ω(k，)?=?(1튻-?8)k人代듺入죫预풤算쯣约풼束쫸式쪽?(3?)?和뫍(??4)?ꎬ，퓲则?듺뛔ퟓ듺뢣샻뗄욫뫃?(??1?쪽)쯹式뇭所듯表뗄达뗝的递맩归탔性뗄的뿧跨웚期ퟮ最듳大뮯化컊问쳢题뿉可以틔转化代对子代福利的偏好。뮯?내헕???????????뗄랽램ꎬퟓ얮뗄죋솦놾듦???ꎮ?为按照Zhang(1995)的方法，子女的人力资本存ꆭ???솿??ꎬ폫살ퟔ뢸놲뗄뷌폽춶죫??뫍짧믡랶캧쓚돉?bh:?}?烈ι삲s?z印??呐??矶??E?βρ?咐?????ρ归ꆶ(?l叩-v刊n??ꆪ??W?徘?附??￡?川凤?ρ?叫γꆪ??吁〈?卅)?-?卢?b良川t?+，?n?t??量H'+J与来自父辈的教育投入h，H，和社会范围内成??ꆤ?튻?쎦??쓪죋뗄욽뻹죋솦놾듦솿냙ꎬ쿠맘솪ꎺ?+p叩l?归nρ[f(ρ?1叫+r气t忡?+时1为，(?l?-?v?n?，-h??, n，?如峨JH，/ꎯ?p+?n??，T?'+ll?'+ꆣ1?ω时ꎯ/?p)?+??η?ln?n?，}年人的平均人力资本存量H，相关联:?????뮧죕?ꎬ???ꎬ?ꇜ?ꇜ?????맘关于폚上짏式쪽分럖别뇰对뛔b?t?+1?，?S?，ꆢ、h??，和뫍?n，求쟳偏욫导떼，ꎬ并늢重훘新탂?H’+J=A (h，H，JH户，A>O，O~δ运1(2) 헢쪵볊짏쫇튻룶????ꆪ??????탎쪽뗄죋솦?整헻理샭得뗃到떽→튻阶뷗条쳵件볾:这实际上是一个Cobb-Douglas形式的人力资ꎺ?놾짺닺몯쫽ꎮ웤훐?쿠떱폚죋솦놾짺닺뗄벼쫵쮮?吼、ꇝ?α(?lꇀ+r?"，)本生产函数，其中A相当于人力资本生产的技术水???一一-:;;;---→一-一-(8) 욽ꆣ?뇭쪾뷌폽춶뗄죋솦놾닺돶떯탔ꆣ평폚돉쓪???????CCt+1 t 平。δ表示教育投资的人力资本产出弹性。由于成年죋뚼쫇춬훊뗄ꎬ퓲폐죕?냙?ꆣ?1 l+r..ꎺ?, ?(9?)?? 人都是同质的，则有H，=虱。?????ꎬ?Cdt+1 ?ꎮ헾뢮늿쏅뗄뻶닟?t 2.政府部门的决策ω，h，n，(l-T，) _ aðω时ρ4吼叫X1-T，+I)춬훐맺튻퇹ꎮ뻸듳뛠쫽릤튵맺볒뚼붨솢쇋럇믽?????????????????????????????ꎬ???ꎮ?ꎺꆪꆪ(10) 同中国一样，绝大多数工业国家都建立了非积Cc+1t 1 累샛制훆(?쿖现쫕收쿖现뢶付훆制)?퇸养샏老놣保헏障쳥体쾵系，ꎬ룹根뻝据맺国볊际샍劳릤工组ퟩ??????b?，+?1+?仇?ꎬ1?l’?+ꎬ1?W’?+ꎬI? Jꎯ/?(l ?+?r,?+1? )旦?(1?1?)? 旦旦世횯??????뫍쫀뷧틸탐??????뗄놨뗀ꎬ탭뛠쪵탐쿖쫕?织(1987)和世界银行(1994)的报道，许多实行现收쿖뢶훆뗄맺볒퓚쪵볊닙ퟷ훐ꎬ퇸샏뷰뗄룸뢶쫇폫췋?캪为了쇋뇣便于폚后뫳文컄理샭论싛分럖析컶结뷡果맻的뗄表뇭达듯，ꎮ컒我쏇们作ퟷ如죧?现付制的国家在实际操作中，养老金的给付是与退택잰뗄퓚횰쫕죫쿠맘뗄ꆣ퓚횰죋풱내헕샍뚯쫕죫뗄?쿂下三죽个룶定뚨义틥:ꎺ?(?1)??γ?b=?b? ??ꎯ???ꎬ뇭쪾듺뇭탔탐캪죋퓚?t+Jn,l( lμ，)，表示代表性行为人在休前的在职收入相关的。在职人员按照劳动收入的튻뚨뇈싊?뷉쓉짧믡놣헏쮰ꎬ룹뻝췋택잰뗄릤쫕?돉成쓪年웚期웚期末쒩삡馈赠퓹的뗄遗틅产닺占햼当떱웚期劳샍动뚯收쫕入죫的뗄比뇈重훘ꎻ;?(?2)?一定比率吭缴纳社会保障税，根据退休前的工资收죫쿲췋택죋풱횧뢶퇸샏뷰????ꆪ???ꆣ헢샯뗄?뻍쫇?γ'ꎺc=ꆣcꎯ，l(ꆺ?lþJ，)?ꎬ，뇭表쪾示듺代뇭表탔性탐行캪为죋人퓚在돉成쓪年웚期뗄的쿻消费럑占햼当떱?入向退休人员支付养老金1;=以-幽J。这里的ψ就是쳦듺싊ꎮ컒쏇볙짨쳦듺싊쫇튻룶늻뇤뗄헾닟닎쫽ꆣ?웚期샍劳뚯动收쫕入죫的뗄比뇈重훘ꎻ;?(?3?)?γ?'，F?b?忡/{(1?+?凡?ꇎJ)l?þJJꎬ，뇭表쪾示듺代表뇭?替代率，我们假设替代率是一个不变的政策参数。틲듋헾뢮늿쏅뗄풤쯣풼쫸캪??틔튻????튻?ꎯ?ꎬ?탔性탐行为캪죋人퓚在샏老年쓪期웚的뗄淌쿻费럑占햼成돉쓪年期웚샍劳动뚯收쫕入죫及벰웤其资?因此政府部门的预算约束为T，=叭-灿-l=n叫'T，l队布，뛸듺뇭탔탐캪죋뗄풤쯣풼쫸뿉뇭쪾캪ꎺ?놾本샻利得뗃的뗄比뇈重훘?。在퓚均뻹衡뫢增퓶长뎤路슷径뺶上짏的뗄经뺭济볃稳컈态첬点뗣，ꎬ?而代表性行为人的预算约束可表示为:??????????ꆪ????ꆮꇪ???ꎮ????ꆢ?짏上쫶述三죽룶个比뇈率싊以틔及벰储뒢蓄탮率싊、ꆢ짺生폽育싊率뫍和뺭经볃济퓶增뎤长率싊是쫇?c,=b,(l +r，)+(l-s，-'T，)lμ产b，+Jn，(3) ??????????ꆮꇪ??ꎯ??????뾸????ꎬ?????컈稳뚨定不늻变뇤的뗄，ꎮ늢并쟒且죋人뻹均产닺出돶?Y?，IL，ꆢ、죋人뻹均컯物훊质资놾本듦存?dt+J=(l +r,+J)s ，lþJ，布+nt'Tt+1l，+μ't+1/扣(4)웤훐ꇞ뇭쪾릤싊ꎮ?뇭쪾샻싊쮮욽ꆣ힢틢떽?솿量?K，IL，ꆢ、죋人뻹均죋人솦力资놾本듦存솿量?昆、ꆢ돉成쓪年죋人뗄的죋人뻹均쿻消费럑?其中ω表示工资率，r表示利率水平。注意到???쪽훐룶죋퓚돉쓪웚뗄뒢탮뫍놾샻뗃듳폚?????ꆣc?，ꆢ、샏老쓪年죋人뗄的죋人뻹均쿻消럑费?d'?+J、돉成쓪年죋人뗄的죋人뻹均믱获퓹赠틅遗产닺?(4 )式中个人在成年期的储蓄和资本利得大于(l+rt+ꎬ??평????ꎬ헢쫇틲캪뇘좻폐늿럖돉쓪죋퓚뷸죫??b?，ꆢ、릤工资싊率?ω，헢这킩些뇤变솿量뚼都틔以춬同퇹样뗄的쯙速度뛈增퓶长뎤，ꎬ헢这룶个쯙速?I为)þJ，(由P<l)，这是因为必然有部分成年人在进入샏쓪웚횮잰쯀췶ꎮ볙뚨쯻쏇쯹쇴쿂뗄헢뇊틢췢틅닺?뛈度뻍就쫇是컈稳뚨定ힴ状첬态쿂下죋人均뻹收쫕죫入的뗄퓶增长뎤쯙速度뛈?gꆣ。?老年期之前死亡，假定他们所留下的这笔意外遗产?늻춬폚짏컄쳡떽뗄훷뚯삡퓹틅닺?퓚쯹폐탒듦뗄샏?샻利폃用뺭经볃济듯达到떽컈稳뚨定ힴ状첬态的뗄쳵条件볾?h?t+J动t=hꆢ，?n，?=?n时，?=??(不同于上文提到的主动馈赠遗产)在所有幸存的老ꎮ?ꎮ??V?o?Lꎮ?2?9? ?N?oꎮ.?4?(?1?2?2?)2?∞??8? 2 .
?캬웕톶 "1 _，~如挟，ι叫，????쓪뗚?웚?뗚??뻭?2∞8年第4期第29卷ζ~ Vo..thωyεd户。户ufat肌?n뫍和?S，司时司ꎬ컒，我쏇们뿉可틔以뗃得到떽:ꎺ?뎤长;ꎺ죧如맻果?α?=?ηꎯl?(l?+?p?+?咐?ꎬ，짧社믡会놣保헏障쮰税싊率뗄的퓶增뎤长뛔对짺生폽育??싊率、ꆢ죋人솦力资놾本춶投资뫍和뺭经볃济퓶增长뎤无컞影펰响쿬;ꎻ죧如果맻?α?〈뗰ηꎯ1?(1?+?旦旦L-i'1-θμz白-γJ(12) ????ꎬꎺ?뛾???????1+r'+1θn p??+?咐?ꎬ，짧社믡会놣保헏障쮰税싊率뗄的퓶增뎤长믡会쳡提高룟生짺育폽率싊，ꎬ붵降뗍低人죋力솦?평由폚于퓚在욽平뫢衡퓶增뎤长슷路뺶径짏上릤工资싊率뗄的퓶增뎤长싊率뗈等于폚经뺭?资놾本춶投资，ꎮ틖抑훆制뺭经볃济퓶增뎤长ꆣ。짏上쏦面뗄的뷡结싛论쫇是퓚在짧社믡会保놣?볃济增퓶长뎤率싊，ꎬ即벴?1?+?g=?创??刊/屿，ꎬ?(?1?2)?쪽式뿉可以틔写킴成돉?n?(1?+?g)?=?헏障쮰税싊率볈既뚨定的뗄쟩情뿶况下쿂뗃得到떽的뗄ꎮ좻然뛸而?T놾本짭身又폖쫇是一튻个룶?(1? +?r?t+?IX1튻-?fJ?X?s ?+?γ?b)ꎯ1?6ꆣ。当떱삡馈赠퓹的뗄遗틅产닺为캪正헽时쪱，ꎬ?(?8)?쪽式取좡?쓚内生짺变뇤量솿，ꎬ?γbꆢ，?n뫍和?T뗄的解뷢隐틾含몬于폚(1???5?)튻-?(1??7)?쪽式所쯹表뇭?뗈等뫅号뿉可킴写돉成?即??'+lꎯl?c닺，=?α?(1?+r?)?ꎬ，늢并由평?1?+?g?=?c?ꎯ?ꎬ듋쪱?듯뗄럇쿟탔랽돌ퟩꎮ틲듋컒쏇컞램뗃떽쯼쏇쏷좷뗄?,+/c, ，此时达的非线性方程组，因此我们无法得到它们明确的?(8? ?)쪽式틢意캶味着ퟅ黄믆金뷰率싊(G??o??ld?e?n??Ru?l?e)?캪为?n?(1+g)?=?α?(l?+r?)?ꎬ,? 뷢解컶析解뷢(?뷶仅냼包몬含닎参쫽数?)ꆣ。캪为쇋了듓从횱直맛观짏上쇋了뷢解풤预웚期쫙寿쏼命?웤其中훐닎参数쫽?α쫇是듺代表뇭性탔탐行为캪人죋生짺쏼命周훜期웚效킧用폃函몯数쫽中훐?퇓延长뎤对뛔生짺育폽率싊、ꆢ뷌教育폽投춶资率싊、ꆢ뺭经볃济增퓶长뎤率싊的뗄总ퟜ效킧应펦，ꎬ?뛔对ퟓ子얮女福뢣利샻的뗄贴쳹现쿖因틲子ퟓ。ꆣ평由짏上쫶述?(?8)?ꆢ、(?1??2)?쪽式的뗄变뇤形탎，ꎬ?컒我쏇们只횻能쓜通춨过맽数쫽值횵模쒣拟쓢来살解뷢这헢个룶非럇线쿟性탔方랽程돌组ퟩ。?컒我们쏇得뗃到떽:ꎺ?죽三、ꆢ쫽数횵值쒣模쓢拟??s?+?γ?b?=?α퇴θꎯ1?(l-튻f?J) ?????캪为쇋了쪹使쫽数횵值쒣模쓢拟的뗄뷡结맻果符럻合뫏中훐国맺的뗄实쪵际볊情쟩况(13) 뿶ꎮ?룹根据뻝(?1??3)?쪽式컒我쏇们뗃得횪知ꎮ代듺表뇭性탔行탐为캪人죋在퓚成돉年쓪期웚?컒我쏇们必뇘须탫对뛔各룷种훖参닎数쫽进뷸行탐调뗷整헻，ꎮ뫳后컄文뮹还믡会붫将쒣模拟쓢结뷡?뗄的뒢储탮蓄和뫍遗틅닺产馈삡赠퓹占햼当떱期웚总ퟜ收쫕入죫的뗄比뇈重훘是쫇恒뫣定뚨的뗄。ꆣ?맻果同춬中훐国맺的뗄实쪵证횤数쫽据뻝进뷸行탐比뇈较뷏，ꎮ틔以펡印횤证샭理싛论分럖析컶的뗄?붫将稳컈첬态条쳵件볾?h'?+ꎬl?=?h?，=h?、ꆢ?T'+?I=T?，叮代듺人죋一튻阶뷗条쳵件볾(1???0)?쪽式?合뫏샭理탔性。ꆣ쫗首쿈先쫇是뢸父쒸母뛔对子ퟓ얮女的뗄数쫽量솿偏욫好뫃参닎数쫽?η和뫍뢣福?늢并重훘新탂整헻理샭可뿉得뗃.ꎺ?利샻偏욫뫃好参닎数쫽?α?。뫍和웤其쯻他쳹贴쿖现因틲子ퟓ一튻样퇹，ꎮퟷ作캪为듺代뇭表탔性탐行?????为캪人죋生짺命쏼周훜期웚函몯数쫽中훐的뗄贴쳹现쿖因틲子ퟓ，ꎮ헢这솽两룶个닎参数쫽的뗄取좡?h=显旦2型(14) n(l+w) 횵值范랶围캧都뚼在퓚1?뢽附近뷼。ꆣ캪为쇋了룼更볓加좫全面쏦地뗘考뾼察달?η뫍和?α的뗄?由평(1??4?)?式쪽可뿉整헻理샭得뗃到떽?l?=l?-v?nꆪ-h??n=?(?1?-v??n?)ꎯl?(l ?+? 쿠相对뛔强잿弱죵程돌度뛈，ꎬ컒我쏇们퓚在쫽数횵值쒣模쓢拟中훐设짨定뚨?α=?0?.ꎮ?8?5为캪参닎?퓒00)?ꎬ，很뫜明쏷显쿔，ꎬퟓ子얮女뗄的쫽数솿量뫍和ퟓ子얮女뷌教폽育的뗄쪱时间볤投춶入죫是쫇?헕照值횵，ꎬ쿠相뛔对펦应的뗄?η쫴属于폚区쟸间볤[?0.ꎮ?8ꆣ，?1ꎮ?.?坷ꎬ싺，满ퟣ足?α〉?η?、ꆢ?α=?η?相쿠互뮥替쳦代듺的뗄关맘系쾵。?뫍和α?〈??η三죽种훖情쟩况뿶②ꋚꆣ。웤其듎次，ꎬ맺国쓚内췢外뗄的퇐研뺿究맀估볆计出돶改룄革룯?평由?γc的뗄定뚨义틥、ꆢ(??3)?、ꆢ(??9)?式쪽和뫍稳컈态첬条쳵件볾TUJJt?+I?Iω?，1?，=?后뫳中훐国맺资本놾和뫍劳샍动뚯力솦的뗄产닺出돶弹떯性탔数쫽值횵在퓚?0.ꎮ?6뫍和0?.ꎮ?4??(?l?+?g加?=??α(?l?+r?)，ꎬ뿉可뗃得:ꎺ?左ퟳ右폒(?张헅军뻼等뗈，ꎬ2?0?0?3?)?ꆣ。떫但룹根据뻝发랢듯达国맺家볒的뗄数쫽据뻝所쯹做ퟶ???????????????????????????????的뗄맀估볆计表뇭明쏷资本놾的뗄产닺出돶弹떯性탔一튻般냣在퓚0?.ꎮ?3-튻0?.ꎮ?4ퟳ左폒右?=~旦~p(.l-T)(1-θ)+(1+p)aBl(15) ꎬfα+?ꎮ?p?X1-ꆪθ?j?ꆢ ꆢ??(?Ma?n?k?町??等뗈，ꎬ????ꎻ???????뫍???????ꆣ??????쯤좻?1992 ; Collins和Bosworth, 1996)。虽然?γ-?γ'?.?ꎯ;α，?+?1?-튻T?-튻α?。?Vꎯ?(l튻-?θ~(?1?6?)? 튻一般냣而뛸言퇔，ꎮ랢发햹展훐中맺国볒家뗄的资놾本닺产出돶떯弹탔性튪要高룟于폚发랢达듯?由평(??1?1?쪽)ꎬ式뷡，뫏结컈合稳첬态쳵条볾件틔以벰及?l?=ρ?-?v?n?)?ꎯ1ρ?+?α?句??，ꎬ?国맺볒家，ꎬ떫但훐中맺国뗄的资놾本닺产돶出떯弹탔性늻不뿉可쓜能뎤长웚期维캬持돖在퓚较뷏?我컒们쏇得뗃到떽合뫏意틢生짺育폽率싊:ꎺ?高룟的뗄水쮮平욽上짏，ꎮ쯹所틔以컒我쏇们톡选퓱择资놾本产닺出돶弹떯性탔θ?=?0?ꎮ.?4?。对뛔?n?=??γ?r?η뛾-γαT?-?뛾α?8?? ??????于폚养퇸老샏金뷰替쳦代듺率싊，ꎬ룹根뻝据훐中맺国ퟮ最뷼近뗄的养퇸샏老保놣险쿕改룄革룯框뿲?(17) (1+γcη-γαT)ψ ???????架볜，ꎬ뗚第튻一횧支훹柱평由웳企튵业按내工릤资的뗄1??3-ꆪ1?7?9ꎥ毛뷉缴쮰税，ꎮ듓从뛸而保놣?튻一般냣而뛸言퇔，ꆣ퓚在퇸养샏老뷰金쳦替듺代싊率만固뚨定뗄的쟩情뿶况쿂下ꎮ社짧会믡?证횤工릤作ퟷ超뎬过맽1?5?年쓪的뗄职횰工릤在퓚退췋休택时쪱可뿉以틔获믱得뗃2??0ꎥ%的뗄?保놣障헏税쮰率싊将붫随쯦预풤期웚寿쫙命쏼的뗄变뇤化뮯而뛸发랢生짺改룄变뇤，ꎮ预풤期웚寿쫙?替쳦代듺率싊;ꎻ뗚第뛾二횧支훹柱由평企웳业튵和뫍职횰工릤共릲同춬缴뷉纳쓉，ꎮ为캪工릤资的뗄?命쏼通춨过맽改룄变뇤社짧会믡保놣障헏税쮰率싊，ꆣ对뛔生짺育폽率싊、ꆢ뷌教폽育投춶资率싊和뫍?1?1?ꎥ%，ꎬ틔以듋此붨建솢立횰职릤工룶个죋人헋账뮧户ꆣ退췋休택后뫳职횰工릤每쎿月퓂可뿉以틔?经뺭济볃增퓶长뎤뗄的펰影쿬响듦存퓚在횱直뷓接뗄的뫍和볤间뷓接뗄的솽两랽方쏦面킧效펦应?①ꋙ?获믱得뗃退췋休택时쪱该룃账헋户뮧累샛积믽金뷰额뛮的뗄1?1ꎯ?12?0??。第뗚一튻支횧柱훹和뫍?在퓚得뗃到떽上짏述쫶最ퟮ优폅化뮯解뷢后뫳ꎮ我컒们쏇可뿉以틔通춨过맽社짧会믡保놣障헏税쮰?싊헢룶쟾뗀ꆣ럖컶풤웚쫙쏼퇓뎤뗄튻쾵쇐킧펦?①ꋙ如죧果맻我컒们쏇用폃?z表뇭示쪾生짺育폽率싊、ꆢ教뷌育폽投춶资率싊或믲者헟经뺭济볃增퓶长뎤率싊，ꎮ?率这个渠道，分析预期寿命延长的一系列效应。평????튻????쪽ꎬ컒쏇쫗쿈쓜릻횱뷓뾼달뗄쫇?在퓚现쿖收쫕现쿖付뢶制훆下쿂，ꎬ社짧会믡保놣障헏税쮰率싊是쫇关맘于폚预풤期웚寿쫙命쏼的뗄函몯数쫽T??由(13)-(17)式，我们首先能够直接考察的是例??，ꎬ풤预웚期쫙寿쏼命늻不뷶仅횱直接뷓影펰响쿬变뇤量솿?x，ꎬ还뮹通춨过맽函몯数쫽T??例?影펰响쿬社짧会믡?通춨过맽社짧会믡保놣障헏税쮰率싊体쳥现쿖的뗄间볤接뷓效킧应펦(?证횤明쏷过맽程돌略싔)?:ꎺ?놣헏쮰싊듓뛸뛔?퓬돉볤뷓펰쿬ꎬ벴?쫇풤웚쫙쏼뫍짧믡놣? 保障税率从而对z造成间接影响，即z是预期寿命和社会保퓚쿖쫕쿖뢶훆짧믡퇸샏놣헏쳥쾵쿂ꎮ짧믡놣헏쮰싊?障헏税쮰率싊的뗄函몯数쫽x?=?x?(?pꎬ???ꆣ틲듋ퟜ킧펦럖캪횱뷓킧펦뫍볤뷓?,T(P ))0因此总效应分为直接效应和间接在现收现付制社会养老保障体系下，社会保障税率뗄퓶뎤?쿂붵?쪹듺뇭탔탐캪죋뗄틅닺삡퓹햼쫕죫뗄?킧펦솽늿럖ꎬ벴??ꎯ?????ꎯ????ꎯ????ꎯ??效应两部分，即dx/φ，=ðx/ p+( x/ T X T / p ) 0 的增长(下降)使代表性行为人的遗产馈赠占收入的②ꋚ根룹据뻝对뛔(1??5?)?式쪽的뗄估맀算쯣，ꎬα?=?0?.ꎮ8?5?能쓜够릻在퓚这헢三죽种훖情쟩况뿶下쿂充돤分럖满싺?比뇈重훘和뫍储뒢蓄탮率싊增퓶加볓(减?복少짙)?，ꎮ늻不펰影쿬响컯物훊质资놾本投춶资占햼?足ퟣ正헽的뗄遗틅产닺馈삡赠퓹条쳵件볾。ꆣ我컒们쏇把냑η뗰的뗄最ퟮ大듳极벫限쿞值횵设짨定뚨为1캪.?ꎮ5?，ꎮ헢这?닺돶뗄뇈훘ꆣ죧맻???ꎯ????ꎬ짧믡놣헏쮰싊뗄퓶?是쫇一튻个룶相쿠对뛔合뫏理샭的뗄估맀计볆，ꎬ因틲为캪如죧果맻?η过맽高룟，ꎬ퓲则틢意味캶着ퟅ父뢸母쒸对뛔?产出的比重。如果α〉η1(1+p+咐，社会保障税率的增ퟓ얮쫽솿뗄욫뫃풶룟폚뛔ퟓ얮뢣샻뗄욫뫃쓋훁ퟔ짭뗄쿻럑子女数量的偏好远离于对子女福利的偏好乃至自身的消费，长뎤会믡降붵低뗍生짺育폽率싊，ꎬ提쳡高룟人죋力솦资本놾投춶资，ꎮ促듙进뷸经뺭济볃增퓶?ꎮ?这헢是쫇不늻合뫏理샭的뗄Oꆣ?Voꆤ (122)2∞8 . 3? .ꎮ ?
캬웕톶 2??∞?8?年쓪第뗚4?웚j\/ 品挝人叫，期?第뗚?2?9卷뻭?ζ二-;Vo..th6时d向샚户?心t肌뗚뛾횧훹뗄쒿뇪쳦듺싊뫏볆캪??ꎮ?ꎥ?헢튻쳥쾵뗄?命쏼对뛔各룷变뇤量솿的뗄总ퟜ效킧应펦具뻟냈有폐??탭???뛠?쿠ꎬꎬ许多相同춬?特쳘?征헷(?虽쯤然좻不늻同춬?냈???????????第二支柱的目标替代率合计为%。这一体系的믹基本놾特쳘征헷是쫇统춳筹돯账헋户뮧和뫍个룶人죋账헋户뮧相쿠结뷡合뫏，ꎮ在퓚模쒣拟쓢中훐?情쟩况뿶下쿂的뗄结뷡果맻存듦在퓚偏욫差닮?ꎬ?⁏但떫?这헢?些킩?㈠差닮异틬均뻹保놣持돖在퓚2?ꎥ%?튪쟳퇸샏놣헏쳥쾵쪵쿖ퟔ컒욽뫢ꎮ틲듋컒쏇횻좷뚨???쟰?쪯ꆧ???쮺?ꇱ뮥?????볂??ꇱ?要求养老保障体系实现自我平衡，因此我们只确定的뗄拖랶围캧内쓚)?ꎬ，헢这킩些쳘特헷征믹基놾本럻符뫏合既볈有폐文컄献쿗的뗄经뺭验퇩数쫽?쒿目뇪标쳦替듺代率싊φ?=?5?8?.ꎮ?5ꎥ%ꎬ，늢并쟒且놣保持돖不늻变뇤Oꆣ根룹据뻝Z?h?a?n?g??뻝据。ꆣ这헢里샯我컒们쏇以틔α??〉?η的뗄情쟩况뿶为캪参닎考뾼来살加볓以틔说쮵明쏷:?뗈??????ꎬ컯훊놾뛔죋솦놾뗄닺돶떯탔맀볆캪?(??1?풤)웚预쫙期쏼寿퇓命延뎤长쳡??提룟?엌쇋ꆧ믊高了짧?社믡??놣ꆰ??会保헏障쮰税싊率?。正헽如죧??????????????닶?ꇱ????ꆧ???等(2∞3)，物质资本对人力资本的产出弹性估计为0?.ꎮ1??5ꎬ，틲因캪为컒我쏇们的뗄쒣模탍型냑把뷌教育폽的뗄时쪱间볤投춶人죫看뾴作ퟷ人죋力솦?我컒们쏇在퓚上짏文컄提쳡到떽的뗄，ꎬ짧社믡会놣保헏障쮰税싊率的뗄퓶增长뎤通춨过맽社짧会믡?놾춶ꎬ틲듋컒쏇뷼쯆뗘죏캪???ꎮ??ꆣ뛔폚짺폽튻?保놣障헏体쳥系쾵这헢个룶渠쟾道뗀，ꎬ??뾰?㌠㤠??퇟??????????쒷????????资本投资，因此我们近似地认为δ=。对于生育一뛔对一ꆫ系쾵列쇐均뻹衡뫢解뷢产닺生짺了쇋影펰响쿬，ꎮ传뒫?个룶子ퟓ女얮所쯹占햼用폃的뗄时쪱间볤，ꎮ룹根뻝据컒我맺国目쒿잰前的뗄쿠相맘关法램律싉规맦?뗝递了쇋预풤期웚寿쫙命쏼延퇓长뎤对뛔各룷变뇤量솿的뗄间볤接뷓效킧应펦。ꆣ并늢且쟒，ꎮ预풤?????????????????????定뚨，ꎬ哺늸乳죩期웚的뗄产닺妇뢾可뿉享쿭受쫜为캪期웚?6个룶月퓂的뗄产닺假볙，ꎮZ?h?a??ng??웚期寿쫙命쏼延퇓长뎤对뛔其웤他쯻宏뫪观맛经뺭쓈济?볃变뇤量솿的뗄间볤接뷓效킧应펦，ꎮ同춬预풤?볓??等뗈。??∞???3)?认죏为캪母쒸亲쟗至훁少짙需탨要튪9?个룶月퓂的뗄时쪱间볤照헕顾맋新탂生짺?期웚寿쫙命쏼延퇓长뎤对뛔社짧会믡保놣障헏税쮰率싊的뗄效킧应펦的뗄作ퟷ用폃方랽向쿲是쫇一튻???????????펤婴儿뛹，ꎬ평由폚于쒣模탍型훐中뗄的쎿每튻一웚期相쿠当떱于폚?25?年쓪，ꎮ틲因듋此컒我们쏇?致훂的뗄，ꎬ튲也뻍就쫇是쮵说，ꎬ풤预웚期쫙寿쏼命퇓延长的间接效应是负的，假볙定뚨?v=ꎺ0?.?7?5ꎯ/?2?5?=0?.ρ?3?ꆣ。ퟮ最뫳后ꎬ我컒们쏇设짨定뚨人죋力솦资本놾生짺产닺?뎤탄뗄?볤뷓킧펦쫇뢺뗄ꎮ?与폫其웤直횱接뷓效킧应펦刚룕好뫃相쿠反랴。?폊?뷅?뗄的벼技术쫵参닎数쫽?A=ꎺ2?.ꎮ?85ꆣ，以틔뇣使뗃得到떽一튻个룶符럻合뫏目쒿前잰中훐国맺现쿖??(2?)?쯦随ퟅ着预풤期웚寿쫙命쏼的뗄延퇓长뎤，ꎮ뛔对틅遗닺产삡馈퓹赠占햼收쫕入죫比뇈?实쪵的뗄平욽均뻹经뺭济볃增퓶长率뎤(싊1?O??ꎥ%x?2?5?=?2?.ꎮ5?，ꎮ벴即?GD?P?以틔듳大约풼?重훘的뗄净뺻킧效펦应쫇是쿈先뢺负뫳后헽正뗄的ꎮ而뛸对뛔储뒢蓄탮率싊的뗄净뺻效킧应펦是쫇?每쎿年쓪1??0ꎥ%的뗄速쯙度뛈增퓶长뎤，ꎮ쒣模탍型쎿每웚期듺代表뇭?2?5年쓪)?。퓚在上짏?쿈先正헽后뫳负뢺的뗄ꆣO我컒쏇们在퓚此듋只횻着ퟅ重훘分럖析컶储뒢蓄탮率싊随쯦预풤期웚寿쫙?述쫶닎参数쫽设짨뚨定下쿂的뗄数쫽值횵模쒣拟쓢结뷡果맻见볻表뇭1?。命쏼延퇓长뎤的뗄变뇤化뮯(?见볻图춼1?)?ꆣ。춼图탎形뗄的믹基놾本쳘特헷征쫇是룶个倒떹"ꆰU?"ꆱ?从듓表뇭1?中훐컒我쏇们뿉可틔以뾴看떽到ꎮ在퓚对뛔数쫽量솿偏욫好뫃和뫍福뢣利샻?形탎，ꎬ떱当쯀死췶亡싊率쿂下붵降，ꎬ뒢储탮蓄싊率쫇是쯦随횮之增퓶长뎤的뗄，ꎮ늢并쟒且十쪮分럖?偏욫好뫃这헢两솽个룶参닎数쫽大듳姐랶围캧合뫏理샭取좡值횵的뗄情쟩况뿶下쿂，ꎮ预풤期웚寿쫙?톸迅速쯙，ꎬ듋此쪱时쫇是횱直뷓接킧效应펦占햼上짏风럧;ꎺ뛸而퓚在풤预웚期쫙寿쏼命듯达到떽一튻?뇭表1?数쫽值횵模쒣拟쓢结뷡果맻?룶个临쇙界뷧值횵后뫳?(p?=?0.ꎮ?7?6)?ꎬ，储뒢蓄탮率싊开뾪始쪼下쿂降붵，ꎬ듋此쪱时的뗄间볤接뷓?????????ꎥ??????쎿웚?效킧应펦超뎬过맽直횱接뷓效킧应펦。ꆣ这헢是쫇因틲为캪随쯦着ퟅ预풤期웚寿쫙命쏼的뗄延퇓长뎤?P I 1附lγ.(%) I s(%) h(%)下丁一丁g仰每期ja>η 뫍和生짺育폽率싊的뗄下쿂降붵，ꎮ죋人쏇们늻不뗃得늻不퓶增볓加뒢储탮蓄以틔싺满足ퟣ未캴来살?닎参数쫽:ꎺ?a?=0?ꎮ.?8?5ꎬ?ꎺ?ꎮ?ꎮ???ꎮ?ꎬ?ꎺ?ꎮ??ꎬ?ꎺ?ꎮ??ꎮ?ꎺ?ꎮ??ꎬ?ꎺ?ꎮ????,1/=, ,A:: ,8= ，v=，φ:: 养퇸老샏的뗄需탨要튪，ꎬ떫但쫇是풤预웚期쫙寿쏼命퇓延뎤长뫍和짺生育폽싊率下쿂降붵导떼致훂? ?0?.8?8? ??ꎮ???뗄的죋人口뿚老샏龄쇤化뮯使쪹社짧会믡保놣障헏负뢺担떣加볓重훘，ꎮ듓从뛸而家볒庭춥的뗄可뿉? 支配收入减少，储蓄率开始下降。同时，我们的模拟 ?2.?32??횧엤쫕죫복짙ꎬ뒢탮싊뾪쪼쿂붵ꆣ춬쪱ꎮ컒쏇뗄쒣쓢? 0?ꎮ???.7 结뷡果맻基믹本놾吻컇合뫏中훐国맺储뒢蓄탮率싊的뗄实쪵证횤数쫽据뻝。?①ꋙ??ꎮ???30 U司1튻?닎쫽ꎺ???ꎮ??ꎬ???ꎮ??ꎬ???ꎮ?ꎬ???ꎮ??ꎬ???ꎮ??ꎮ???ꎮ??ꎬ???ꎮ????25 参数:α::，η::, ::,A= ,8= ，v埠.03，φ:: ????ꎮ????????ꎮ??????????ꎮ???/ 20 / ?0.ꎮ5? 1??0ꎮ.9?? I?l?.ꎮ?l 2??4ꎮ.5? ?5?ꎮ.0?2? 2?ꎮ.1?02? ??2.?32?? ?ꎮ????ꎮ???ꎮ????ꎮ?????ꎮ?????ꎮ??? 2∞4 / 0?.ꎮ?9 ?2?6?ꎮ.5? ?1?2.?3? 2?4?.ꎮ?7 ??5.ꎮ0?4? ?2.ꎮ0?5?8? ???~ ꆣꆾ???10~ // a<可(1)参닎数쫽:ꎺ?α:?:?ꎮ0.?8?5ꎬ，1?/:?:?1ꎮ.?0ꎬ，如??O.ꎮ?4，ꎬ?A:?:?2ꎮ.8?5?ꎬ,8?:?:0?ꎮ.1??5? ，v:?:?ꎮ0.?0?3ꎬ，φ??::?0ꎮ.?58??5? ?ꎮ??? 0,3 0." 1?.8?3?? 图춼1?储뒢蓄탮率싊随쯦预풤期웚寿쫙命쏼延퇓长뎤的뗄模쒣拟쓢固춼????? ?ꎮ???(??3)?随쯦着ퟅ预풤期웚寿쫙命쏼的뗄延퇓长뎤，ꎮ풤预웚期쫙寿쏼命뛔对生짺育폽率싊的뗄? ????净뺻킧效펦应쫇是쿈先뢺负뫳后헽正뗄的ꎮ而뛸对뛔人죋力솦资本놾投춶资率싊的뗄净뺻效킧? a<可ρ?j?应펦是쫇先쿈正헽后뫳负뢺的뗄(?죧如춼图匀??，ꎮ듓从뛸而풤预웚期쫙寿쏼命뛔对经뺭济볃增퓶?닎参数쫽:ꎺ?a?::?Oꎮ.?8?5ꎬ，?η?::1?.ꎮ?5,ꆣ ?::??0.ꎮ4?,ꎬ?A:?:2?ꎮ.8?5? ꎬ,?8:?:?0.ꎮ1?5? ，ꎬv?:?:?ꎮ0.?0?3，ꎬφ?，?=0?ꎮ.?5?85?? 뎤长率싊的뗄影펰响쿬模쒣式쪽和뫍人죋力솦资本놾投춶资率싊相쿠同춬(?如죧图춼3?)?。ꆣ?。l?ꎮ?? .1 0뺭经볃济增퓶长뎤率싊随쯦预풤期웚寿쫙命쏼的뗄变뇤化뮯呈돊倒떹ꆰ"?U"ꆱ形탎，ꎮ当떱?0?ꎮ???.3 ?ꎮ???死쯀亡췶率싊水쮮平욽较뷏高룟时쪱，ꎮ뺭经볃济퓶增뎤长싊率쯦随预풤웚期寿쫙命쏼的뗄增퓶长뎤? ???? ①ꋙ参닎见볻?Mo?d?ig??l?ia?n?i?<??币?l?e?C??hi?n?es?e?? ?Sa?v?i?ng?? P?u??zz??le? ?a?nd? ??t?h?e? L?i?f?e?›????? C??y?c?le? H?y??p?o?t?h?e?s?is?)ꎬ, <?J?o?ur?na?l? o??f ?Ec?o?n?o?m?i?c? L?i?ter?a?t?u?r?e?) ，ꎬ2??∞??4(?3?)?。ꆣ?一一一一一L-??ꆤ?. 4 . (I22)2∞8
?캬웕톶 /\ I •辛苦在/.....叫뿚，????쓪뗚?웚?뗚??뻭?2008年第4J胡第29卷ζ;1 V o，户。户u1ati?o?n?뛸而쳡提高룟，ꎮ떫但쫇是떱当풤预웚期쫙寿쏼命뎬超过맽一튻定뚨界뷧限쿞后뫳(?图춼?4훐中뗄的?믲或헟者放럅开뾪，ꎮ짺生폽育싊率뿉可能쓜向쿲上짏反랴弹떯。ꆣ此듋外췢，ꎬ?Li?뫍和?Z?h?a?n?g?转헛折뗣点是쫇?0.ꎮ?7?6)?ꎮ，뺭经볃济퓶增뎤长싊率퓲则쯦随ퟅ着풤预웚期쫙寿쏼命뗄的퇓延长뎤???????퓋엳룄룯뾪럅틔뫳훐맺뗄쪡벶쏦냥쫽뻝쯹믱?(2005 )运用改革开放以后中间的省级面板数据所获뛸而쿂下붵降?。훐中맺国目쒿前잰?2?5쯪岁죋人口뿚듦存活믮到떽?6?5쯪岁的뗄룅概싊率为캪?뗃得뗄的횤证据뻝发랢现쿖，ꎮ헢这뛎段쪱时웚期뗄的죋人뿚口퓶增뎤长죔仍좻然늻不샻利폚于经뺭??0.ꎮ?6?9ꎮ틢意캶味ퟅ着훐中맺国퓚在쿭享쫜受뛌短웚期뗄的죋人뿚口뫬红샻利뫳后ꎮ日죕益틦严퇏?볃济퓶增뎤长?。因틲此듋，ꎮ뷡结뫏合컒我쏇们뗄的샭理싛论럖分컶析뷡结맻果和뫍쿠相맘关的뗄?훘重뗄的죋人口뿚老샏龄쇤化뮯将붫可뿉能쓜成돉为캪经뺭济볃增퓶长뎤的뗄障헏碍낭。ꆣ?J쪵实횤证쫽数据뻝，ꎮ컒我쏇们죏认캪为，ꎮ쒿目잰前럅放쯉松짵甚훁至럅放웺弃짺生폽育맜管훆制不늻?컒我쏇们뛔对풤预웚期쫙寿쏼命폫与죋人솦力资本놾춶投资싊率和뫍经뺭济볃增퓶长뎤?뷶仅믡会퓶增加볓살来自ퟔ少짙儿뛹的뗄抚뢧养퇸负뢺担떣，ꎮ룼更퇏严훘重뗄的쫇是붵降低뗍죋人?싊率맘关쾵系뗄的쒣模쓢拟同춬퇹样럻符合뫏뺭经퇩验쫽数뻝据的뗄쳘特征헷事쫂实쪵。ꆣ例샽如죧?솦力资놾本춶投资싊率헢这튻一뺭经济볃퓶增长뎤的뗄重훘要튪源풴泉좪。ꆣ为캪了쇋长뎤期웚??Cu?t?l?er?뗈等?(?1?9?93?)?뛔对美쏀国맺的뗄经뺭验퇩研퇐究뺿表뇭明쏷，ꎮ샏老쓪年人죋的뗄?뗄的뿉可돖持탸续뺭经济볃发랢展햹，ꎮ퓚在쿖现뷗阶뛎段훐中맺国펦应룃该볌继탸续实쪵쪩施计볆?뇈比훘重뛔对쎿每룶个톧学짺生욽平뻹均쿭享쫜受뗄的릫公릲共뷌教폽育支횧出돶存듦퓚在严퇏重훘?뮮划짺生폽育政헾策닟?C뗄的负뢺面쏦影펰响쿬。??Po?t?e?rb?a?(1??9?9?7 ?)샻利폃用?1?9?6?0ꆪ-1??9?9?0쓪年间볤美쏀?쯄四、ꆢ뷡结싛论?맺国룷各훝州的뗄面쏦냥板数쫽据뻝，ꎮ튲也랢发쿖现샏老쓪年죋人뿚口뇈比샽例뗄的퓶增加볓与폫?놾本章헂在퓚?Di?a?mo??n?d?( ?1?9?6?5 ?)뗾叠듺代쒣模탍型뗄的믹基놾本뿲框볜架쿂下?뛹儿童춯的뗄人죋均뻹教뷌育폽支횧出돶缩쯵减복相쿠联솪系쾵。?据뻝此듋，ꎮ?Zh?a?n?g?뗈等?볓加入죫不늻确좷定뚨性탔寿쫙命쏼、ꆢ짧社믡会놣保헏障쳥体쾵系뫍和죋人솦力资놾本生짺产닺??(2?0?0?3? ?)뗄的퇐研뺿究튲也뗃得돶出뷡结싛论:ꎺ풤预웚期쫙寿쏼命퇓延뎤长뛔对뺭经볃济增퓶?튪要素쯘，ꎮ럖分컶析쇋了퓚在풤预웚期쫙寿命쏼延퇓长뎤的뗄背놳景뺰下쿂，ꎮ듺代뇭表탔性볒家庭춥?뎤长率싊的뗄影펰响쿬是쫇复뢴杂퓓的뗄，ꎮ并늢且쟒是쫇非럇单떥调뗷性탔的뗄。?돉成员풱的뗄微캢观맛行탐为캪决뻶策닟对뛔内쓚生짺经뺭济볃增퓶长뎤的뗄影펰响쿬，ꎬ以틔及벰?同춬쪱时，ꎮ컒我쏇们힢注틢意떽到，ꎮ뺭经볃济퓶增뎤长싊率뒦处폚于ퟮ最룟高럥峰的뗄时쪱?쯀死췶亡率싊下쿂降붵对뛔生짺育폽行탐为캪和뫍人죋力솦资本놾投춶资的뗄效킧应펦。ꆣ?候뫲，ꎮ튲也뻍就쫇是죋人솦力资놾本춶投资率싊最ퟮ高룟的뗄时쪱候뫲，ꎮ폫与횮之쿠相뛔对应펦?퓚在쿖现收쫕现쿖付뢶制훆养퇸老샏体쳥系쾵下쿂，ꎮ풤预웚期쫙寿쏼命퇓延长뎤提쳡高룟?뗄的쫇是듋此时쪱뗄的生짺育폽率싊下쿂降붵到떽更룼替쳦水쮮平욽?(?2.ꎮ?0)?附뢽近뷼。ꆣꋚb쯦随?了쇋짧社믡会保놣障헏税쮰率싊，ꎮ풤预웚期쫙寿쏼命뗄的뇤变뮯化춨通맽过짧社믡会保놣障헏税쮰?后뫳生짺育폽率싊有폐所쯹回믘升짽，ꎮ횱直뻵觉짏上，ꎮ컒我쏇们뿉可틔以냑把헢这룶个쿖现쿳象理샭?率싊뛔对相쿠关맘变뇤量솿产닺生짺了쇋间볤接뷓的뗄影펰响쿬效킧应펦，ꎮ因틲듋此预풤期웚寿쫙?뷢解为캪듺代表뇭탔性行탐为캪人죋틢意识쪶到떽人죋口뿚老샏化뮯不늻断뛏加볓剧뻧后뫳的뗄预풤?쏼命对뛔生짺育폽率싊、ꆢ죋人솦力资놾本춶投资뫍和뺭经볃济퓶增뎤长的뗄净뺻效킧应펦变뇤?防럀性탔탐行为캪。ꆣ뛔对펦应폚于컒我国맺目쒿前잰0?.ꎮ?6?88?的뗄듦存活믮概룅率싊(?볻见脚뷅?뗃得模쒣뫽糊不늻定뚨?。但떫是쫇我컒们쏇的뗄数쫽值횵模쒣拟쓢提쳡供릩了쇋非럇常뎣有폐趣좤?힢注的??，ꎮ컒我쏇们쒣模쓢拟뗄的뫏合틢意짺生育폽率싊水쮮平욽为캪?2.ꎮ?0?35??这헢个룶结뷡?的뗄结뷡果맻，ꎮ짺生폽育싊率쯦随풤预웚期쫙寿쏼命퇓延뎤长的뗄变뇤化뮯呈돊ꆰ"?U"ꆱ形탎，ꎬ뛸而?0맻果是쫇符럻合뫏现쿖实쪵的뗄，ꎮ例샽如죧，ꎮ돂陈닊彩쾼霞뫍和헅张뒿纯元풪?(?2?00?3?)?对뛔农얩?뒢储蓄탮率싊、ꆢ죋人솦力资놾本춶投资싊率뫍和뺭经볃济퓶增뎤长싊率随쯦预풤웚期寿쫙命쏼?듥村女얮性탔짺生育폽意틢愿풸的뗄调뗷查닩显쿔示쪾ꎮ놻被调뗷查닩女얮性탔中훐?7?5.ꎮ?1ꎥ%?延퇓长뎤的뗄变뇤化뮯呈돊倒떹"ꆰ?U"ꆱ形탎?上짏述쫶变뇤量솿的뗄变뇤化뮯模쒣式쪽在퓚相쿠?的뗄人죋죏认为캪最ퟮ뫃好能쓜有폐两솽个룶孩몢子ퟓ。ꆣ这헢说쮵明쏷我컒国맺目쒿前잰的뗄生짺?뛔对较뷏大듳的뗄参닎数쫽取좡值횵范랶围캧内쓚都뚼是쫇保놣持돖稳컈定뚨的뗄，ꎮ并늢且쟒与폫?育폽政헾策닟是쫇有폐效킧果맻的뗄，ꎮ同춬时쪱意틢味캶着ퟅ，ꎮ튻一떩旦짺生폽育뿘控制훆放럅松쯉?诸훮多뛠国맺内쓚外췢实쪵证횤研퇐究뺿的뗄特쳘征헷事쫂实쪵相쿠吻컇合뫏。?门(，61寸c此듋外췢，ꎮ我컒们쏇的뗄研퇐究뺿结뷡果맻具뻟有폐较뷏强잿的뗄政헾策닟相쿠关맘性탔。ꆣ?我컒们쏇的뗄模쒣拟쓢结뷡果맻显쿔示쪾，ꎮ뛔对펦应폚于目쒿잰前듦存믮活룅概率싊的뗄合뫏意틢生짺?协二一→---l 一一一一、二f\-----飞、-可育폽率싊在퓚更룼替쳦水쮮平욽附뢽近뷼，ꎮ틢意캶味ퟅ着튻一떩旦럅放뾪开짺生育폽控뿘制훆将붫会믡?,] ’)5 r飞-----引틽发랢生짺育폽率싊回믘升짽，ꎮ뛸而쿖现뷗阶뛎段뗄的죋人口뿚퓶增뎤长죔仍좻然不늻利샻于폚经뺭?. ..//~~-\/ 济볃增퓶长뎤，ꎬ틲因듋此쒿目잰前짐尚늻不쓜能럅放웺弃짺生育폽헾政策닟的뗄实쪵行탐。ꆣ在퓚目쒿?υ./ 前잰中훐国맺人죋口뿚뫬红샻利뒰窗口뿚웚期벴即붫将맘关뇕闭뗄的쟩情뿶况쿂下ꎮ为캪了쇋应펦对뛔?人죋口뿚老샏龄쇤化뮯듸带살来뗄的뢺负쏦面펰影쿬响ꎮ关맘键볼是쫇更룼加볓有폐效킧地뗘利샻用폃?-"13、-一-一~一-~一-一o 1 0 2 03 04 0 5 0 6 0 7 08 0 9 人죋力솦资本놾投춶资和뫍发랢挥믓人죋力솦资本놾积믽累샛的뗄作ퟷ用폃。?图2预期寿命延长与生育率、人力资本投资率在퓚本놾文컄的뗄샭理싛论쒣模탍型훐中我ꎮ컒们쏇考뾼察달了쇋不늻确좷定뚨性탔预풤?26 14 ①ꋙ本놾文컄对뛔2?5?岁쯪人죋口뿚(?낲安全좫渡뛉过맽第뗚一튻期웚)?存듦活믮到떽6?5?的뗄概룅率싊的뗄?볆쯣랽램죧쿂ꎺ평폚컒쏇쫖춷횻폐????ꆪ????쓪뛈훐맺릤?22 计算方法如下:由于我们手头只有1989-1990年度中国工作ퟷ人죋口뿚的뗄生짺命쏼表뇭，ꎮ假볙设짨总ퟜ人죋口뿚的뗄存듦活믮概룅率싊按내照헕这헢个룶模쒣式쪽不늻?变뇤。ꆣ如죧果맻从듓1?岁쯪存듦活믮到떽2?岁쯪的뗄概룅率싊为캪?鸟，ꎮ则퓲从듓2?5?岁쯪存듦活믮到떽?18 //~ 6?5?岁쯪的뗄概룅率싊为캪?PYF27…ꆭ?儿，ꎬ据뻝此듋推췆算쯣的뗄老샏年쓪人죋平욽均뻹存듦活믮概룅率싊?16 约풼为캪0?.ꎮ6?8?8??0②ꋚ在퓚我컒们쏇的뗄数쫽值횵模쒣拟쓢中훐得뗃到떽的뗄最ퟮ高룟合뫏意틢生짺育폽率싊也튲仅뷶为캪?ꎮ?ퟳ?左右폒，ꎬ늢并쎻没폐有出돶现쿖我컒国맺五컥、ꆢ쇹六十쪮年쓪代듺高룟达듯6?.ꎮ0?的뗄水쮮平욽。ꆣ实쪵际볊上짏，ꎮ我컒?1:V 国맺当떱时쪱的뗄高룟生짺育폽率싊水쮮平욽同춬样퇹受쫜到떽生짺育폽政헾策닟的뗄影펰响쿬，ꎮ也튲就뻍是쫇出돶?于폚加볓速쯙战햽后뫳经뺭济볃重훘建붨的뗄目쒿的뗄而뛸号뫅召헙、ꆢ鼓맄励샸多뛠生짺多뛠育폽，ꎮ因틲此듋高룟?02 03 04 05 06 。oe 09 达듯6?以틔上짏的뗄生짺育폽率싊水쮮平욽并늢非럇合뫏意틢生짺育폽率싊，ꎮ不늻能쓜据뻝此듋说쮵明쏷本놾文컄?图3预期寿命延长与经济增长率模쒣拟쓢的뗄非럇合뫏理샭性탔?CV?o?l.?ꎮ2?9? ?N?o?.4ꎮ?(?12?2?)?20?0?8? ?ꆤ?ꆤ?. 5 .
캬웕톶 ????쓪뗚?웚뗚??뻭??탕죋???뿚2佣8年第4期第29卷c:::;IVo..tt;品筑?企???二?e??叫d户。户ufat阳웚期쫙寿쏼命对뛔뺭经济볃增퓶长뎤的뗄影펰响쿬，ꎮ컒我쏇们늢并쎻没폐有뾼考싇虑떼导훂致预풤????????ꎬ???????????????????????????????ꎬ???ꎮ???ꎬ??ꎮ?ꎬ?튻??ꎮ?ChaIlenge, Brookings Paper On Economic Activity,,,1-73. 웚期쫙寿쏼命延퇓长뎤的뗄原풭因틲，ꎮ떫但퓚在쿖现实쪵生짺活믮中훐影펰响쿬死쯀亡췶率싊、ꆢ듦存?ꆾ[1??O?]?C?h?a?k?r?a?h?a?r?tyꎬ, ?R?u?p?aꎮ. ?E?n?d?o?g?e?n?o?u?s? ?F?e?rt?il?it?y? ?A?n?d? ?G?ro?w?th? ?in? ?A? ?M?o?d?e?l 믮with Old Age 5upport[J]. Economic Theory; 1师9，13:393-416.活싊率?(풤预웚期쫙寿쏼命?)뗄的틲因쯘素웄颇뛠多ꎮ샽例죧如죋人쏇们日죕常뎣짣摄죋入的뗄????????????????????ꎮ????????????ꎻ???ꎬ??ꎺ???????ꎮ?틻饮食쪳、ꆢ쯹所뒦处뗄的짺生믮活뮷环境뺳、ꆢ놣保돖持뗄的짺生活믮习쾰惯맟等뗈等뗈，ꎮ뛸[l1]Diamond,P. NationaI Deht in A NeoclassicaI Growth Model [J]. 而헢这?ꆾ????????ꎬ????????????????????????????????????ꆾ??ꎮ?킩American Economic Review, 1965,55:1026-1050. 些相쿠关맘影펰响쿬因틲素쯘中훐，ꎬퟮ最캪为훘重要튪的뗄是쫇人죋们쏇为캪保놣持돖健붡康뾵、ꆢ???????????????????????ꎬ????ꎬ??ꎺ????ꆪ????ꎮ?붵降뗍低쯀死췶亡可뿉能쓜性탔而뛸进뷸行탐的뗄健붡康뾵投춶资，ꎮ냼包삨括뷓接쫜受医튽疗쇆?ꆾ[1??2?]E?h?rl?ic?hꎬ, ?l?s?a?a?cꎮ.?ηl?e? ?P?r?o?h?l?e?m? ?O?f ?D?e?v?e?l?o?p?m?e?n?t:ꎺ ?I?n?tr?o?d?u?c?t?ion??[J?]ꎮ. ?J?o?山???????????????????????ꆣ????ꎮ?ꎺ??ꆪ???ꎮ?럾服컱务、ꆢ뷸进탐行붡健뾵康놣保붡健뗈等。ꆣ퓚在本놾文컄的뗄后뫳续탸研퇐究뺿中훐，ꎮ컒naI Of PoliticaI Economics,l990,5 :51-511. 我们쏇??[?1?3?]?E?h?rl?i?c?hꎬ, ?Is?a?a?c? a?n?d? ?F?ra?n?c?is? ?Tꎮ. ?L?u? ꎮ. ?In?te?rg?e?n?e?ra?ti?o?n?aI? ?T?ra?d?eꎬ, ?1?ρn?g?e?v?ì?ꆤ?붫将ퟅ着重훘分럖析컶导떼致훂预풤期웚寿쫙命쏼的뗄原풭因틲，ꎮ벴即풤预웚期寿쫙命쏼的뗄内쓚??ty?a?n??d? ?E?c?o?no??m?ic? ?G?ro?wt?h ꆾ[?J]ꆿ.ꎮ ?J?o?u?m?aI? ?o?f ?P?o?li?ti?c?aI? ?Ec??on??om??yꎬ, ?1?9?91?ꎬ,?5:ꎺ? 짺生탔性?。*쪼?????ꆪ????ꎮ?1029-1059. ꆾ[1??4?]E?h?r?li?c?hꎬ, ?I?saa?c? ?an?d? ?F?ra?n?c? s? T. ?L?u?i.ꎮ ?Th?e? ?P?ro?h?le??m? ?o?f? ?P?o?p?u?la?t?ion?? ?a?n?d? 닎参考뾼文컄献쿗:ꎺ?????ꎺ????????????????????????????????????????????????ꆤ?Growth: A Review of the Literature from MaIthus to Contemporary Mod›ꆾ[1??]?B?e?c?k?e?rꎬ, ?G?缸?y???5.ꎮ ꆰ"A??n? ?Ec??on??o?m?ic? ?An??a?Iy?si?s ??o?f ?F??e?rt?il?ity?ꎬ,ꆱ" ?A? ?C?o?n?fe?r?e?n?c?e? ?e?ls? ?o?f? ?En??do??g?e?no??u?s? ?P?o?p?u?la?ti?o?n? ?an??d? ?E?n?do?g??en??o?u?s ??G?ro?wt?hꆾ?[1].ꎮ ?J?o?u?m?aI ??o?f ?Eꆪ›??o?f? U?n?i?v?e?r?s?it?ie?s?-?NB?E??R? ?C?o?m?m?it?te?e? ?fo?r? ?Ec??on?o??m?ic? ?R?e?se??a?r?ch?ꎬ????ꎮ???????????????ꎦ??????ꎬ????ꎬ??ꎺ???????ꎮ?, 1960. conomic Dynamics & Control, 1997 ,21 :205-242. [ꆾ?2?]B?e?c?k?e?r?, ?G?缸?y??5ꎬ, ?G?r?e?g?g ?L?e?w?i?s.ꎮ O??n? ?th?e? 1?n?te?ra?c?ti?o?n? ?he??tw?ee??n ??th?e? ?Q?u?a?n?t?iꆪ›??[?1?5?]Mo?d?i?g?l?ia?n?iꎮ.?ηl?e? ?C?h?in?e?s?e? ?5a??v?ing?? P??u?z?zl?e? ?an?d?? t?h?e? ?Li?f?e?-C?y??cl?e? ?H?y?po?thꆤ›??ty? a??n?d? ?th?e? ?Q?u?aIi?ty?? ?o?f? ?C?h?il?d?re??n ꆾ[?J]?.ꎮ ?J?o?u?m?aI? ?o?f? ?P?o?l?it?ic?a?I ?E?c?o?no?m??y,ꎬ ?1?97??3ꎬ,? ?e?s?isꎬ??????????????????????ꆣ????ꎮ?, JoumaI of Economic Literature, 2∞4. ?81? ꎺ:?2?7?9ꆪ-2?8?8?ꎮ.? ꆾ[1??6?]Z?h?a?n?gꎬ, ?J?ie.ꎮ ?S?oc??iaI ??S?e?c?u?ri?ty? ?an?d?? ?En?d?o??g?e?n?ou??s? ?Gr?o?wt?hꆾ口?]ꆿ.ꎮ?Jo??u?ma?I? ?o?f? ꆾ[?3?]?B?e?c?k?饵?，ꎬ?G?町??5?ꎬ，?an?d? ??Rꎮ.J?.ꎮ ?B?a?rro?.ꎮ ?A? R?e??fo?rm?u?lati?on?? ?o?f ?th?e? E?c?o?n??om?i?c ???????????????ꎬ????ꎬ??ꎺ???????ꎮ?Puhlic Economics, 1995 ,58: 185-213. ?T?h?eo??ry?? ?o?f ?F?e??rti?li?t?y[?J]?.ꎮ ?Qu?a??rt?e?rl?y? ?J?o?um??aI? ?o?f E?c?o?n??o?mi?c?sꎬ, 1??98?8?,ꎬ?1?0?3:ꎺ ?1?-?2?5.ꎮ? ꆾ[1??7]ꆿ蔡닌防럀，ꎬ뚼都阳퇴，ꎬ췵王关쏀枪퇞.ꎮ죋人뿚口转变뇤新탂阶뷗段뛎与폫人力죋资솦本形놾成탎特돉点[쳘C뗣]ꆾ?.ꆿꎮ中훐?ꆾ[?4]?B?I?II?旬??，ꎬ?R.ꎮ?G.ꎬ,?a?n?d? ?Gꎮ.?5.ꎮ ?B?e?ck?e?r?.ꎮ ?F?e?rti?l?ity?? C?h??o?ice?? ?In ?a?? ?M?o?de?l? o??f ?Ec??on?o??m-ꆪ?맺国짧社믡会뿆科学톧院풺人죋口뿚劳샍动뚯所쯹工릤作ퟷ论싛文컄，ꎮ?2?∞?1?.ꎮ??ic? ?G?row??th?[J]?.ꎮ ?E?co??n?om??e?tri?c?a,ꎬ 1??9?8?9,ꎬ?5?7 ꎺ:4??8?1ꆫ-5??01?ꎮ.? [ꆾ1??8]ꆿ닌蔡防럀，ꎬ王췵美쏀袍퇞，ꎬ?2∞???4ꎬ，ꆶ{훐中맺돇国城헲镇샍劳뚯动닎参폫与싊率뗄的뇤变뮯化벰及웤其헾政策닟舍몬?[ꆾ?5]?Bl?∞??m，ꎬ ?D?av??id ?E?.ꎮ,ꎬ ?D?av??id?? ?C?ann?i?ng? ?a?nd? ??J?ay?p?e?e?? 5?e??v?il?la?ꎬ, E??co??no?m?i?c?aI ?义틥>ꆷꎬ，ꆶ(훐中맺国짧社믡会科뿆学톧>ꆷ，ꎬ第뗚4?期웚，ꎬ?6?8-ꆫ7?9?.ꎮ?G?r?ow??th? ?a?n?d?? ?Th?e?? D??em??o?g?ra?p?h?ic ?Tr?an?s?i?ti?on?ꎬ, ?th?e? ?N??B?ER? ?W?o?rk?in?g? ?P?a??p?er?.ꎮ ??[1?9?]?닌蔡防럀.ꎮ죋人뿚口转뇤变ꆢ、죋人뿚口뫬红샻利폫与뺭经볃济퓶增长뎤可뿉持돖续탸性탔一ꆪ一ꆪ-볦兼싛伦돤充分럖就뻍?[ꆾ6?]?B?e?c?ke??r,ꎬ ?G缸??y??5?,ꎬ ?K?ev?i?!?l? M?.ꎮ ?M?u?rph?y?ꎬ, ?an?d? ?R??o?h?er?t? T?u?m??ur?a?.ꎮ ?Hu??ma?n? ?C??a?p›ꆪ?业튵如죧何뫎促듙进뷸经济뺭增볃长퓶[J뎤]ꆾ??.ꎮ죋人口뿚研퇐究뺿，ꎬ?2∞??4?ꎬ，2?8?(?2)?:ꎺ ?2ꆪ-1?0.ꎮ? ??ꎬ??????ꎬ????????????????ꆾ??ꎮ???????????????????????ꎬ??[2?0]?都阳?.ꎮ죋人솦力资놾本、ꆢ짺生폽育싊率与폫经뺭济볃增퓶长뎤田?.ꎮ中훐国맺人죋口뿚科뿆学톧，ꎬ?2?∞??1ꎬ，(?1?):ꎺ1?, Fertility, and Economic Growth [J]. JoumaI of PoliticaI Economy, ??????ꎺ?????ꎮ?ꆺ[?21?]?都뚼阳퇴.ꎮ죋人뿚口转뇤变뗄的뺭经볃济킧效펦应벰及웤其뛔对훐中맺国뺭经볃济퓶增长뎤持돖续탸性탔的뗄影펰响1990,5:12-37. 쿬?[ꆾ7??]B??la?ck??h?um?ꎬ???????????????????????ꎬ??????????????????ꎬ?[ꆾ?Jꆿꎮ]훐.맺中죋国人뿚口뿆科学톧，ꎬ2??ω?4?，ꎬ?(?5)?:ꎺ?33?-?4?1?.ꎮ?, Keith and Giam Pietro Cipriani, A Model of Longevity, ???????????????ꆾ??ꎮ???????????????????????ꎦ?????ꎬ?[ꆾ?22?]ꆿ都뚼阳퇴.ꎮ훐中맺国뗍低生짺育폽水쮮平욽的뗄形탎成돉及벰其对웤长뛔期뎤经웚济뺭增볃长퓶的影뎤响뗄[펰C쿬]ꆾ?.ꆿꎮ中F훐?e rtility and Growth口].JoumaI of Economic Dynamics & Control, 2?回??2?ꎬ，2?6?:ꎺ1?8??7?-2?0?4?.ꎮ?맺짧믡뿆톧풺죋뿚퇐뺿쯹ꎮ릤ퟷ싛컄쾵쇐쯄쪮컥ꎮ????ꎮ? 国社会科学院人口研究所，工作论丈革，IJ四十五，2∞15.ꆾ?????????ꎬ????????????????????????ꎮ????????????????????[ꆾ?23?]ꆿ宋쯎铮.ꎮ훐中国맺居뻓民쏱储뒢蓄탮行탐为研캪究퇐口뺿]ꆾ?.?ꎮ뷰金融죚研퇐究뺿，ꎬ1??9?99?，ꎬ(?6?)ꎺ:?4?2-?5?2?.ꎮ?[8]Blackhum, Keith and Giam Pietro Cipriani. Intergeneration Transfer a?n?d? ?D?e?m?o?伊???p?h?i?c?T?r?an?s?i?ti?on?口?].?ꎮ??????????????????????????ꎬ?[ꆾ?24?]ꆿ袁풬志횾刚룕，ꎬ宋쯎铮.ꎮ돇城헲镇居뻓民쏱消쿻费럑行탐为캪变异뇤与틬我폫国컒经맺济뺭增볃长[퓶1뎤]ꋳ.ꎮ뺭经볃济研퇐?loumaI of Development Economics, 2?∞???5，ꎬ7?8?:ꎺ 1??91?ꆪ-2?1?4?.ꎮ ?뺿ꎬ????ꎬ????ꎺ??ꆪ??ꎬ?究，1999，(11):20-29.??????ꎬ??????ꎮꎬ???????ꎮ?????ꎬ???????ꎮ??????ꎬ??????????ꎮ?[ꆾ?25?]ꆿ张헅军뻼.ꎮ资놾本탎形돉成ꆢ、춶投资킧效싊率폫与훐中맺国뗄的뺭经볃济퓶增뎤长ꆪ-ꆪ一实쪵证횤研퇐究뺿[?M]ꆿ.ꎮ?[9]Cutler, David M., James M. Poterha, Louise M. 5heiner, Lawrence H. ??????ꎬ????????ꎮ??????????ꎬ???????????????ꎺ?????????????쟥清华뮪大듳学톧出돶版냦社짧，ꎮ2?∞??1?5.ꎮ?5umrners, George , 1999, An Ageing Society: Opportunity Or ????????ꆪ??????????????????????????????????????????????????????The Long-Term Economic Growth a如rFast Population Changes in China ꆪꆪ -fr?o?m? ?t?he?? v?i?ew? ?o?f? ?l?if?e? ?e?x?p?e?c?t?a?n?c?y?? a?n?d? ?h?u?m?a?n? ?c?a?p?i?ta?l? ?i?n?v?e?s?t?m?e?n?t? ??????ꎬ?????????XU Fei,CHEN Yan (?S?c?h?o?o?l? ?0?1 S?o?c?a?i?l ?D?e?v?e?l?o?pm??en?t? ?a?r?u1? ?Pu?b?l?i?c ?P?o?l?ic?y,ꎬ F?u?d?a?n?. ?U??ni?ve?r?s?i?ty?,ꎬ S?h?a?n?.g?阳??i??2?0?0?4?3?3?)? ?????????ꎺ???????????????????ꎬ????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????Abstract: In the past 30 years, China has been experiencing a fast population changes which consumed more than one hunm曹d????????????????????????ꎮ???????????????????????????????????ꎬ???????????????????????????????????????????????ꎮ?years in developed countries. With the decline in fertility and mortality, the pace of population ageing is more and more rapid. U?n?d?e?r? ?t?hi?s ?c?o?n?d?i?t?io?n?,ꎬ e?x?t?e?n?d?i?ng? ?t?he? ?h?a?s?i?c? ?o?v?e?r?la?p??pi?ng?-ꆪg?e?n?e?r?aꎮ돳t?io?n?s? ?m?o?d?e?l? b?y? ?D?i?am?o?n?d?(?l?9?6?5?)?,ꎬ u?t?il?i?zi?ng? ?u?n?c?e?r?ta?i?n ?l?i?f?eꆪ-t?i?me?,ꎬ b?a?s?›??i?ng? ?o?n? ?i?n?d?i?vi?du?a?l? m?i?cr?o?-ꆪa?c?t?i?on?,ꎬ t?h?i?s? ?p?a?p?e?r? e?n?d?e?a?v?o?r?s ?t?o ?a?n?a?l?y?z?e? ?t?he? ?f?o?l?lo?w?i?n?g? ?e?v?e?n?t?s:ꎺ i?s ?i?t? n?e?c?e?s?s?a?r?y? ?f?o?r? C?h?i?n?a? ?t?o ?m?o?d?i?fy t?he? ?p?r?e?s?e?n?t? f?a?m?i?ly? ?p?l?????????????ꎻ????????????????????????????????????????ꎬ????????????????ꆪ????????????????????????句illingpolicy; with the disappearance of population dividend, how could the long-term economic growth be ꎮ???????ꎮ??????????????????ꎬ?????????????????????????ꎬ????????????????????ꎬ???????????????????????????????8ustained. The results show that, the relationship between fertility, human capital investment, saving rate and economic growth i?s ?n?o?n?-ꆫm?o?n?o?t?o?n?i?c.ꎮ ??????????ꎺ?????????????????ꎻ??????????????ꎻ?????????????????????ꎻ???????????????Key words: Population changes; Life Expectancy; Human Capital Investment; Economic Growth ꆤ6? .ꆤ ????ꎮ?????ꎮ??????????? (l22)2∞8
