No. C2002008 2002쓪5퓂23죕 돶뿚폫훐맺뗄뺭볃퓶뎤탨쟳떼쿲뗄럖컶 쇖틣럲?샮폀뻼??놱뺩듳톧훐맺뺭볃퇐뺿훐탄‱〰㠷??? 쓚죝쳡튪뒫춳짏죋쏇듓맺쏱쫕죫뫣뗈쪽돶랢붫뺻돶뿚뛔뺭볃퓶뎤뗄횱뷓릱쿗뾴ퟷ뛔췢쎳틗뛔뺭볃퓶뎤뗄릱쿗떫쫇ퟷ캪뺻돶뿚ퟩ돉늿럖뗄돶뿚폫뷸뿚퓚뺭볃퓋탐맽돌훐쯹랢믓뗄ퟷ폃늢늻쿠춬돶뿚뗄퓶뎤돽쇋쓜릻횱뷓췆뚯뺭볃퓶뎤횮췢뮹뛔쿻럑춶헾뢮횧돶뷸뿚퓬돉펰쿬듓뛸볤뷓듌벤뺭볃퓶뎤캪쇋췪헻뗘뾼달돶뿚폫뺭볃퓶뎤횮볤뗄맘쾵컒쏇뇘탫춬쪱뾼싇돶뿚퓶뎤뛔뺭볃퓶뎤뗄횱뷓뫍볤뷓췆뚯ퟷ폃내듋랽램맀볆뗄뷡맻뇭쏷뻅쪮쓪듺틔살췢쎳돶뿚쎿퓶뎤10%믹놾짏쓜릻췆뚯GDP퓶뎤1% 맘볼듊뺭볃퓶뎤퓶뎤뫋쯣뛔췢쎳틗돶뿚 Title: Export and economic growth in China: A demand-oriented analysis Abstract: Many studies, based on an accounting identity of gross domestic product, found that the contribution of international trade to China’s economic growth in the past 20 years was every small.. In this paper, we re-examine the issue and found that those studies under estimate export’s contribution to GDP growth due to their neglect of export’s indirect impacts on domestic consumption, investment, government expenditure and import. We propose a new estimation method and find that a ten percent increase in export resulted in a one percent increase in GDP in the 1990s in China, if both the direct and indirect contributions are considered. Key words: Economic growth, International trade, Export, Growth Accounting 1
룄룯뾪럅틔살컒맺뗄뛔췢쎳틗좡뗃쇋량쯙뗄랢햹, 뷸돶뿚ퟜ뛮듓1978쓪뗄틚쏀풪퓶볓떽2001쓪뗄5098틚쏀풪쓪뻹퓶뎤싊룟듯15%뇈춬웚맺쓚짺닺ퟜ횵GDP뗄쓪뻹퓶뎤싊%룟%뛔췢쎳틗폫뺭볃퓶뎤횮볤뗄맘쾵튲틲듋돉캪샭싛뷧맘탄뗄죈뗣컊쳢뛔룃컊쳢뗄쳖싛듳훂냼삨죧쿂솽룶랽쏦뗚튻뛔돶뿚폫뺭볃퓶뎤횮볤틲맻맘쾵뗄쳖싛헢훖쳖싛훂솦폚쟸럖쫇돶뿚퓶뎤췆뚯쇋뺭볃뗄퓶뎤뮹쫇뺭볃맦쒣뗄퓶뎤듸뚯쇋돶뿚뗄퓶뎤뗚뛾뛔췢쎳뛔뺭볃퓶뎤릱쿗돌뛈뗄쪵횤럖컶헢훖퇐뺿튻냣돐죏돶뿚뗄퓶뎤췆뚯쇋뺭볃뗄퓶뎤늢퓚듋믹뒡짏샻폃룷훖랽램맀볆돶뿚뛔뺭볃퓶뎤뗄릱쿗돌뛈놾컄뗄쳖싛쫴폚뫳헟 컄헂죏캪뒫춳뗄닢쯣돶뿚뛔뺭볃퓶뎤릱쿗돌뛈뗄랽램듦퓚튻뚨뻖쿞탔헢훖뻖쿞탔뇭쿖퓚룃랽램뷶뷶뾼싇떽뺻돶뿚뛔뺭볃퓶뎤뗄횱뷓릱쿗쎻폐뾼싇돶뿚춨맽뛔쿻럑춶헾뢮횧돶뫍뷸뿚뗄펰쿬뛸뛔뺭볃퓶뎤퓬돉뗄볤뷓펰쿬평폚헢훖뻖쿞탔뗄듦퓚쪹폃뒫춳닢쯣뷡맻살횸떼뺭볃헾닟뻍뿉쓜퓬돉컳떼헢훖컳떼뗄튻룶뻟쳥뇭쿖뻍쫇튻킩틢볻쟣쿲폚죏캪룄룯뾪럅틔살돶뿚늢캴뛔컒맺뗄뺭볃퓶뎤닺짺뛠듳췆뚯ퟷ폃평헢훖틢볻뿉쓜떼훂뗄튻룶뷡맻뻍쫇뛔삩듳쓚탨뗄훘쫓뫍뛔췆뚯돶뿚뗄뫶쫓폫헢훖틢볻쿠랴놾컄뗄럖컶뇭쏷돶뿚쪼훕쫇컒맺뺭볃뿬쯙퓶뎤뗄훷튪릱쿗틲쯘횮튻틲듋내헕뇈뷏폅쫆뗷헻닺튵뷡릹랢햹폐돶뿚뺺헹솦뗄닺튵뗄훘튪탔늻죝뫶쫓 튻뒫춳랽램뗄뻖쿞탔 뒫춳뗄볆쯣랽램듓쿂쏦뗄맺쏱쫕죫뫣뗈쪽돶랢살뾼달췢쎳뛔뺭볃퓶뎤뗄릱쿗돌뛈 Y=C+I+G+(X−M)(1) 웤훐Y,C,I,G,X,M럖뇰듺뇭맺쏱쫕죫쿻럑춶헾뢮횧돶돶뿚뫍뷸뿚짏쪽솽뇟럖뇰뛔쪱볤쟳떼뿉뗃 Y&=C&+I&+G&+(X&−M&)(2) 웤훐Y&=dYdt웤폠샠쯆뛔2쪽뷸탐볲떥뗄퓋쯣뿉뗃 Y&C&CI&IG&GNE&NE =+++(3) YCYIYGYNEY헢샯NE=X−M캪뺻돶뿚Y&C&I&G&NE&,,,,럖뇰캪룷룶뇤솿뗄퓶YCIGNE뎤싊CIGNE,,,퓲럖뇰뇭쪾쿻럑춶헾뢮횧돶뺻돶뿚퓚맺쏱쫕죫훐쯹YYYY햼뗄뇈샽틲듋3쪽뇭쪾쇋쫕죫뫣뗈쪽훐뗄룷룶ퟩ돉늿럖쫽솿짏뗄뇤뮯뛔ퟜ뗄맺쏱쫕죫퓶뎤뗄펰쿬룹뻝룃쪽컒쏇뿉틔뫋쯣뺻돶뿚뗄뇤뮯폫뺭볃퓶뎤횮볤 2
뗄횱뷓맘쾵퓚컄쿗훐GDP퓶뎤싊럖뷢떽뺻돶뿚뗄늿럖벴NE&NE믲헟NE&NEYY뺭뎣놻돆캪췢쎳퓶뎤뛔GDP퓶뎤뗄삭뚯뛈뛸룃늿럖햼GDP퓶뎤싊뗄냙럖뇈벴NE&Y&믲헟NE&퓲놻돆캪췢쎳뛔GDP퓶뎤뗄릱쿗뛈 YYY&뇭1룸돶쇋컒쏇룹뻝3쪽퓋폃뷼쓪살뗄쪵볊쫽뻝퓋쯣뗄뷡맻퓚쪵볊볆쯣맽돌훐, 평폚컒맺헾뢮쯹릫늼뗄횧돶램맺쓚짺닺ퟜ횵춳볆쇏훐쎻폐떥뛀뗄헾뢮횧돶G뛸C퓲횸ퟜ쿻럑냼삨뻓쏱쿻럑뫍헾뢮쿻럑I퓲횸ퟜ춶냼삨웳튵춶뫍헾뢮횱뷓폃폚놾탎돉뗄횧돶틲듋컒쏇붫3쪽뗷헻캪 ∆Y∆CCttt−1∆II−1∆NENE=+t+tt−1 (4) Yt−1Ct−1Y−1I−1Y−1NE−Ytttt1t−1웤훐∆Y=Y−Y1웤폠샠쯆쿠펦뗘ttt−횧돶램맺쏱쫕죫뫣뗈쪽벴1쪽뇤캪 Y=C+I+NE(5) 뇭?컒맺䝄?퓶뎤싊뗄럖뷢?††??떥캻┩? 쓪†?䜠䐠??퓶?뎤?싊?럖?뷢?쓪†?䜠䐠??퓶?뎤?싊?럖?뷢?럝?퓶뎤싊?쿻†럑?춶†?뺻돶뿚?럝?퓶뎤싊?쿻†럑?춶†?뺻돶뿚?ㄹ㠱?㔮㌲?㔮㜲??〮㤶?〮㔷?ㄹ㤱?㠮㠳?㔮ㄹ?㌮㈷?〮㌷?ㄹ㠲?ㄲ⸱??㘮㜹?㌮㜰?ㄮ㘳?ㄹ㤲?ㄲ⸶??㜮㜲?㘮㘶??ㄮ㜰?ㄹ㠳?㤮㔲?㘮ㄹ?㐮〷??〮㜴?ㄹ㤳?ㄶ⸴??㘮㐳?ㄳ⸳???㌮㌶?ㄹ㠴?ㄲ⸳??㜮㐷?㔮㜳??〮㠲?ㄹ㤴?ㄳ⸹??㜮㌳?㌮ㄲ?㌮㔰?ㄹ㠵?ㄱ⸳??㜮㘲?㠮㐴??㐮㘷?ㄹ㤵?㤮㜴?㔮㌱?㌮㤰?〮㔳?ㄹ㠶?⸲??㔮㔱?㌮㌳?ㄮ㐰?ㄹ㤶?⸲??㜮〶?㈮㔴?〮㘵?ㄹ㠷?⸶??㔮㐱?㈮???㈮㘲?ㄹ㤷?㠮㜶?㐮㜴?㈮〰?㈮〱?ㄹ㠸?ㄱ⸲??㜮㔹?㐮㤰??ㄮ㈳?ㄹ㤸?㠮?㔮㌱?㈮㐳?〮㌶?ㄹ㠹?㈮㠸?㈮㌰?〮㜱??〮ㄳ?ㄹ㤹?㘮㜲?㔮㔹?㈮〸??〮㤵?ㄹ㤰?㔮㌲?ㄮ㈳?〮〳?㐮〶?㈰〰?㠮㔶?㔮㘸?㌮〸??〮ㄹ?쫽뻝살풴룹뻝샺쓪훐맺춳볆쓪본좫맺횧돶램맺쓚짺닺ퟜ횵훐뗄쫽뻝볆쯣뗃돶듓쏻틥GDP떽쪵볊GDP뗄헛쯣쪹폃뗄볛룱횸쫽캪쿻럑헟컯볛횸쫽믹쓪뚨캪1978쓪쿂춬 힢평폚컒쏇쪹폃뗄쫇횧돶램맺쓚짺닺ퟜ횵뗄쿠펦쫽뻝뇭훐볆쯣쯹뗃샺쓪뺭볃퓶뎤싊폫횱뷓쪹폃늿쏅램맺쓚짺닺ퟜ횵쫽뻝볆쯣뷡맻폐튻뚨닮틬뇈죧내헕뫳헟2000쓪뗄뺭볃퓶뎤싊캪8%내헕잰헟룃쓪퓶뎤싊퓲캪%헢쫇틲캪룃쓪횧돶램맺쓚짺닺ퟜ횵듳폚늿쏅램맺쓚짺닺ퟜ횵 뿉틔뾴돶짏쫶뫢솿뛔췢쎳틗뛔뺭볃퓶뎤릱쿗돌뛈뗄랽램뻟폐죧쿂솽룶쳘뗣쫗쿈쯼뗄볆쯣랽램볲떥쏷쇋웤듎쯼쯹탨튪뗄쫽뻝튲럇뎣죝틗좡뗃틲 3
듋룃랽램돉캪뷼쓪살컒맺샭싛뷧쳖싛췢쎳컊쳢쪱ퟮ뎣폃뗄릤뻟뇈죧훬컄믔1998췵ퟓ쿈1998췢쎳헾닟퇐뺿뿎쳢ퟩ1999뫍역뢣캰1999 룹뻝짏쫶랽램쯹뗃떽뗄췢쎳뛔뺭볃퓶뎤뗄릱쿗싊췹췹럇뎣뗍뇈죧췢쎳헾닟퇐뺿뿎쳢ퟩ1999죏캪뺻돶뿚뛔뺭볃퓶뎤뗄릱쿗춨뎣뷏킡횻폐룶뇰쓪럝죧1990쓪뫍1994쓪쎳틗쮳닮듳솿퓶볓뺻돶뿚퓶뎤뛔GDP퓶뎤뗄릱쿗닅뇈뷏듳뚼퓚3룶냙럖뗣틔짏췢쎳뛔뺭볃퓶뎤뗍릱쿗뛈뗄뷡맻튲돉캪탭뛠톧헟듳솦쳡뎫삩듳쓚탨헾닟뗄훷튪샭싛틀뻝뇈죧훬컄믔1998죏캪맽좥20쓪훐맺뗄뺭볃돉뎤돶뿚늢늻쫇훷튪췆뚯솦뺭볃퓶뎤룼뛠살ퟔ춶뫍쿻럑탨쟳뗈쓚탨 웤듎튻킩톧헟퓚뛔뇈쇋틔췹룷쓪뗄GDP폫뺻돶뿚쫽뻝횮뫳랢쿖쎳틗쮳닮폫맺쓚짺닺ퟜ횵퓶뎤횮볤쫇튻훖뢺쿠맘뗄맘쾵닎볻헅킡볃뫺붭퓆1999내헕짏쫶볆솿췢쎳뛔뺻돶뿚릱쿗뛈뗄랽램살뇭쫶헢뻍쫇쮵컒맺GDP퓶뎤싊뷏룟뗄쓪럝췹췹쫇뺻돶뿚뛔뺭볃퓶뎤릱쿗싊뷏뗍뗄쓪럝 죧맻쮵뺻돶뿚뛔뺭볃퓶뎤뗍릱쿗싊뗄뷡맻뮹횻쫇퓬돉쇋튻뎡맘폚뺿뺹펦룃삩듳쓚탨뮹쫇샻폃췢탨뗄헹싛뗄뮰뺻돶뿚폫뺭볃퓶뎤뗄뢺쿠맘맘쾵퓲틑뺭뛔룃랽램뗄샭싛믹뒡릹돉퇏훘췾킲룹뻝맺쏱쫕죫뫣뗈쪽벴쪽1믲쪽5GDP쫇쿻럑춶헾뢮횧돶뫍뺻돶뿚횮뫍틲듋튻냣살쮵룃샭싛펦룃풤닢뺻돶뿚뫍GDP춬쿲뇤뚯뛸늻쫇쿠랴쪵볊짏뿉쓜횻폐솽룶샽췢쟩뿶쓜릻췆랭짏쫶풤닢뗚튻쎿떱뺻돶뿚퓶볓횮쪱뚼믡돶쿖튻킩췢짺솦솿살펰쿬맺쏱쫕죫뫣뗈쪽훐뗄웤쯼뇤솿늢ퟮ훕떼훂GDP쫽횵쿲쿂틆뚯뗚뛾맺쏱쫕죫뫣뗈쪽훐뗄룷룶뇤솿횮볤늻쫇쿠뮥뛀솢뗄뇈죧춶뫍쿻럑뗄삩헅떼훂뷸뿚짏짽듓뛸뺻돶뿚쿂붵떫GDP뮹쫇짏짽쇋떱좻컒쏇뫜쓑쿫쿳늻뿉풤볻뗄췢짺솦솿믡쓇쎴쟉뫏ퟜ쫇냩쯦뺻돶뿚뗄퓶볓뛸돶쿖틲듋뗚뛾훖쟩뿶튲뻍쫇쿻럑춶헾뢮횧돶뫍뺻돶뿚뗈뇤솿늻쫇쿠뮥뛀솢펦룃쫇떼훂짏쫶뢺쿠맘쿖쿳뗄훷튪풭틲 쫂쪵짏죋쏇튲헽쫇듓맺쏱쫕죫뫣뗈쪽훐룷룶뇤솿횮볤뗄쿠맘탔돶랢살뷢쫍짏쫶뢺쿠맘쿖쿳뗄뇈죧헅킡볃뫺붭퓆1999좻뛸컊쳢뗄맘볼쫇볈좻컒쏇틑뺭죏쪶떽쇋쿻럑춶뷸뿚뫍돶뿚횮볤뗄쿠맘탔컒쏇뻍펦룃죏쪶떽쪹폃짏쫶뒫춳랽램살뫢솿뛔췢쎳틗뺻돶뿚뛔뺭볃퓶뎤릱쿗돌뛈뗄뻖쿞탔틲캪헢훖랽램뷶뷶쮵쏷쇋뺻돶뿚폫맺쏱쫕죫횮볤뗄볲떥쫽솿맘쾵늻쓜랴펳쯼폫웤쯼뇤솿횮볤뗄맘솪탔뷸튻늽붲췢쎳뛔뺭볃퓶뎤뗍릱쿗싊뗄뷡맻튲뻍늻쓜돉캪샭싛퇐뺿뫍훆뚨헾닟뗄룹뻝헢쫇틲캪뗍릱쿗싊뗄볆쯣뷡맻뿉쓜헽쫇평폚뒫춳랽램쎻폐돤럖뾼싇떽쿻럑춶뷸뿚뫍돶뿚횮볤뗄쿠맘탔뛸퓬돉뗄 뇭2춨맽볲떥뗄믘맩럖컶뾼달쇋돶뿚폫쿻럑춶뫍뷸뿚죽룶뇤솿횮볤뗄쿠맘맘쾵룹뻝헢튻듖싔뗄믘맩뷡맻컒쏇랢쿖컒맺뷸뿚쿻럑뫍춶뛔돶뿚뗄떯탔럖뇰캪뫍헢뻍쫇쮵돶뿚뗄퓶볓늻뷶뛔뷸뿚폐뫜듳펰쿬쯼춬쪱튲믡뛔쿻럑뫍춶닺짺뫜듳펰쿬뺡맜잰헟쿠뛔듳튻킩떫헢늢늻릹돉컒쏇뿉틔뫶싔뫳솽헟뗄샭평헢퇹틔뺻돶뿚퓚맺쏱쫕죫뫣뗈쪽훐뗄뇭쿖살뫢솿 돶뿚뛔뺭볃퓶뎤릱쿗돌뛈뗄볆쯣랽램뻍뗈폚쫇횻뾼싇쇋돶뿚뛔뷸뿚뗄펰쿬좴뫶쫓 4
쇋돶뿚춨맽뛔쿻럑뫍춶랢짺펰쿬뛸뛔뺭볃퓶뎤퓬돉뗄볤뷓펰쿬틲듋쯼쯹뗃떽뗄뷡맻뻍뫜뿉쓜뗍맀쇋돶뿚뛔뺭볃퓶뎤뗄릱쿗돌뛈 뇭2돶뿚뇤뮯뛔뷸뿚쿻럑뫍춶뗄펰쿬 쒣 탍 짨 뚨 믘 맩 뷡 맻 Log(M)=a0+(X)+emLog(M)=a0+a1Log(X)+m () F=−R==(C)=b0+(X)+ecLog(C)=b0+b1Log(X)+n () F=−R==(I)=g0+(X)+eiLog(I)=g0+g1Log(X)+v () F=−R==힢1쫽뻝뗄쪱볤뿧뛈캪1979-2000틲듋퇹놾맛닢횵n=222볲떥뗄믘맩뷡맻뇭쏷룷룶랽돌뚼듦퓚죅뚯쿮ퟔ쿠맘쿖쿳틲듋컒쏇볙뚨ퟔ쿠맘뗄탔훊캪AR(1)좻뫳틀듎맀볆ퟔ쿠맘쾵쫽r뫍뷢쫍뇤솿쾵쫽횱떽뗼듺맽돌쫕솲짏쫶뷡맻벴캪뗼듺맽돌뗄ퟮ훕뷡맻 뒫춳랽램뗄뻖쿞탔쳡쪾컒쏇펦룃춨맽뷸튻늽뗄퇐뺿살훘탂맀볛뛔췢쎳틗뛔컒맺뺭볃퓶뎤뗄릱쿗돌뛈믹폚짏컄뗄쳖싛돶뿚뫍뷸뿚솽룶뇤솿퓚뺭볃퓋탐맽돌훐쯹랢믓뗄ퟷ폃늢늻쿠춬틲듋컒쏇뗄쳖싛붫훷튪벯훐퓚췢쎳돶뿚폫컒맺뺭볃퓶뎤횮볤뗄맘쾵뻟쳥뗄쮵놾컄붫듓돶뿚뛔쿻럑춶뫍뷸뿚뗄펰쿬돶랢살ퟛ뫏뗘뾼싇돶뿚뗄퓶뎤뛔뺭볃퓶뎤뗄릱쿗믹폚짏쫶뾼싇쿂컄뗄쳖싛훷튪럖캪솽룶늿럖쫗쿈컒쏇붫쳡돶튻룶탂뗄랽램살뾼달돶뿚폫뺭볃퓶뎤횮볤뗄맘쾵좻뫳컒쏇쪹폃룃랽램살맀볆돶뿚뛔컒맺뺭볃퓶뎤뗄릱쿗늢붫헢훖랽램쯹뗃떽뗄뷡맻폫뒫춳랽램뗄뷡맻뷸탐뛔뇈 뛾돶뿚폫뺭볃퓶뎤맘쾵뗄샭싛럖컶 돶뿚폫뺭볃퓶뎤횮볤뗄맘쾵튻횱쫇맺쓚췢샭싛뷧맘탄뗄죈뗣컊쳢헢춻돶뗘랴펳퓚맘폚쯹캽돶뿚떼쿲탍뺭볃퓶뎤Export-led Economic Growth컊쳢뗄헹싛횮훐룅삨뗘붲듦퓚솽쳵첽쳖돶뿚폫뺭볃퓶뎤맘쾵뗄쮼슷 뗚튻쳵쮼슷듓릩룸뷇뛈럖컶돶뿚뛔뺭볃퓶뎤뗄릱쿗헢훖랽램뗄샭싛살풴훷튪쫇탂맅뗤뺭볃퓶뎤샭싛내헕탂맅뗤뺭볃퓶뎤샭싛뺭볃퓶뎤뗄훷튪풭틲쫇튪쯘춶죫뗄퓶볓뫍튪쯘엤훃폫쪹폃킧싊뗄쳡룟헽틲죧듋퓚헢룶쳥쾵훐뾼싇돶뿚뛔뺭볃퓶뎤뗄듙뷸ퟷ폃뛠냫쫇붫돶뿚뾴ퟷ튻훖펰쿬벼쫵뷸늽믲웤쯻펰쿬뺭볃킧싊뗄틲쯘벴돶뿚뗄릱쿗랴펳퓚퓶뎤뫋쯣훐풭살놻뾴ퟷ닐닮Residual뗄쿮쒿훐뛸쯹캽탂퓶뎤샭싛퓲횻늻맽쫇붫돶뿚뗄헢훖펰쿬랢짺ퟷ폃뗄믺훆쓚짺 5
뮯퓚ퟔ벺뗄쒣탍횮훐뇈죧⁇牯獳浡渠慮搠䡥汰浡渠⠱㤹〩쳡돶튻룶붫벼쫵뷸늽쓚짺뮯뗄솽맺퓶뎤쒣탍웤훐쎳틗떼훂벼쫵뫍횪쪶뗄삩즢뷸뛸췆뚯뺭볃퓶뎤?내헕탂맅뗤뗄슷쿟뛔돶뿚폫뺭볃퓶뎤맘쾵뗄볆솿볬퇩짦벰떽죧뫎퓚짺닺몯쫽훐틽죫돶뿚뇤솿뗄컊쳢튻킩볬퇩횱뷓퓚짺닺몯쫽훐붫돶뿚폫샍뚯놾춶죫ퟷ캪늢쇐뗄틲쯘틽죫쇭췢튻킩볬퇩퓲닉폃쇋룼볓뢴퓓뮯뗄랽램뇈죧Feder (1983)붫뺭볃뮮럖캪돶뿚뫍쓚탨솽룶늿쏅웤훐돶뿚늿쏅평폚폫맺췢짺닺헟뫍쿻럑헟랢짺룼뛠뗄솪쾵듓뛸듺뇭룼룟뗄짺닺킧싊춬쪱캪쇋랴펳돶뿚늿쏅쿲럇돶뿚늿쏅벼쫵뫍횪쪶뗄삩즢맽돌Feder퓚럇돶뿚늿쏅짺닺몯쫽훐틽죫쇋돶뿚늿쏅뗄닺솿벴돶뿚솿ퟷ캪튻훖펰쿬킧싊뗄틲쯘 뗚뛾쳵쮼슷쫇듓탨쟳뗄뷇뛈럖컶돶뿚뛔뺭볃퓶뎤뗄릱쿗평폚놾컄쯹ퟱ톭뗄헽쫇헢쳵쮼슷컒쏇뛔헢쳵쮼슷뗄맘탄붫뛠폚릩룸뷇뛈뗄럖컶 듓탨쟳뷇뛈뷸탐럖컶뗄랽램튲놻돆ퟷ탨쟳떼쿲뗄럖컶랽램Export Oriented Analysis믲헟뫳뾭뛷쮹훷틥뗄럖컶랽램Post-Keynesian Analysis쪵볊짏내헕뒫춳뗄뾭뛷쮹훷틥쮼쿫ퟷ캪튻훖삭뚯탨쟳퓶뎤뗄틲쯘돶뿚뗄퓶뎤뇘좻쓜릻듸뚯닺돶뗄퓶볓떫쫇헢튻퇐뺿돶뿚폫뺭볃퓶뎤맘쾵뗄슷쿟늢캴쓜릻뗃떽ퟔ좻뗄삩햹내헕McCombie and Thirlwall1994뗈죋뗄쮵램헢훷튪쫇틲캪죸틁뚨싉ퟷ캪튻훖쮼쿫퓚죋쏇춷쓔훐뗄퇓탸뻟쳥뗘쮵탭뛠죋쿠탅뛔쿖듺뺭볃퓶뎤ퟮ듳뗄훆풼틲쯘살ퟔ릩룸랽쏦뛸럇탨쟳랽쏦믲헟쮵횻폐퓶볓튪쯘춶죫늢쳡룟뺭볃킧싊닅쓜듙뷸뺭볃퓶뎤뎫떼탨쟳럖컶뗄뺭볃톧볒퓲랴뛔헢훖맛뗣1뇈죧Kaldor1972퓚럖컶펢맺릤튵듓돉뎤떽쮥실뗄맽돌쪱횸돶폫탭뛠붫펢맺릤튵뗄랢햹맩틲폚뒢탮뫍놾믽샛뗄퓶볓틔벰평랢쏷뫍뒴탂쯹떼훂뗄벼쫵뷸늽뗄맛뗣쿠랴탭뛠횤뻝뇭쏷펢맺뗄릤튵퓶뎤듓웤퓧웚뾪쪼뻍쫇탨쟳췆뚯뗄Kaldor1972퓚춬튻욪컄헂훐춬쪱횸돶뫁컞틉컊퓚헻룶쪮뻅쫀볍뫍횱떽뗚뛾듎쫀뷧듳햽놬랢잰뗄쪱웚훐펢맺뗄뺭볃퓶뎤뚼뷴뷴틀삵폚웤돶뿚뗄퓶뎤헽틲죧듋떱웤쫀뷧쫐뎡럝뛮뾪쪼돖탸뗘쿂붵펢맺뗄짺닺뫍놾믽샛뗄퓶뎤뻍늻뿉뇜쏢뗘뗍폚쓇킩뫳웰뗄릤튵뮯맺볒 Kaldor뗄헢튻쮼쿫놻ThirlwallMcCombie뗈죋쯹랢햹듓뛸탎돉쇋튻룶럖컶돶뿚폫뺭볃퓶뎤맘쾵뗄샭싛쳥쾵2룅삨뗘쮵룃샭싛쳥쾵뗄쳘뗣냼삨1폫탭뛠죋뗄죏쪶쿠랴뾭뛷쮹쒣탍뿉틔폃살럖컶뺭볃퓶뎤헢훖뎤웚쿖쿳2돶뿚쫇ퟜ탨쟳훐튻룶ퟔ훷뗄ퟩ돉늿럖autonomous component of demand3헽죧춶퓚뾭뛷쮹뗄럢뇕뺭볃쒣탍훐쯹랢믓뗄ퟷ폃튻퇹돶뿚퓚뾪럅뺭볃쒣탍훐랢믓ퟅ맘볼ퟷ폃4잿뗷맺볊쫕횧욽뫢ퟷ캪튻훖풼쫸퓚뺭볃퓶뎤맽돌훐쯹랢믓뗄ퟷ폃5뛔폚릩룸랽쏦뗄틲쯘냼삨튪쯘춶죫뗄퓶볓뫍벼쫵뷸늽퓚릩룸풼쫸늢늻훘튪뗄잰쳡쿂Thirlwall샭싛죏캪헢킩틲쯘뚼틑뺭놻쓚짺뮯퓚튻룶탨쟳삭뚯뗄뺭볃퓶뎤맽돌횮훐믲헟쮵퓚탨쟳뗄삭뚯횮쿂튪쯘춶죫뗄퓶볓뫍튪쯘쪹폃킧싊뗄쳡룟뚼쫇ퟔ좻뛸좻뗄쫂쟩 1 McCombie and Thirlwall1994뛔탂맅뗤퓶뎤샭싛뗄좱쿝뷸탐쇋쿪쾸뗄싛쫶 2 닎볻Dixon and Thirlwall (1975), Thirlwall ( 1979, 1980, 1987), McCombie (1985), McCombie and Thirlwall (1994, 1997, 1999)뗈 6
Thirlwall뫍McCombie샭싛내헕짏쫶벸룶풭퓲쯹뗃돶뗄뷡싛폐튻룶쳘뗣벴믘맩떽Harrod맺볊쎳틗돋쫽Harrod Foreign Trade Multiplier뫍Hicks뎬벶돋쫽Hicks Super-Multiplier뇈죧Thirlwall1979퓚틽죫맺볊쫕횧욽뫢풼쫸뫳뗃떽뗄뷡싛캪3 (1+h+y)(pdt−p−e)+xftttyBt= p웤훐yBt,x럖뇰듺뇭맺볊쫕횧욽뫢풼쫸쿂뗄뻹뫢뺭볃퓶뎤싊뫍돶뿚퓶뎤싊tpdtpe럖뇰듺뇭맺쓚췢볛룱뫍믣싊뇤뚯뗄뇈싊hyp퓲럖뇰뇭쪾뷸ftt뿚돶뿚뗄볛룱떯탔뫍뷸뿚뗄쫕죫떯탔내헕헢튻뷡맻돶뿚퓶뎤x>0붫t삭뚯뺭볃퓶뎤xtp>0 McCombie1985듓뒫춳뗄뾭뛷쮹쒣탍돶랢퓚쎻폐틽죫맺볊쫕횧욽뫢풼쫸뗄쟩뿶쿂뗃떽뗄튻룶뷡맻쫇 Y&=(1K)(wC&+wI&+wG&+wX&−w&CIGXMM) 웤훐Y&듺뇭GDP뗄퓶뎤C&,I&,G&,X&,M&럖뇰듺뇭ퟔ훷탔쿻럑춶헾뢮횧돶돶뿚뫍뷸뿚뗄뇤뮯wCwwIGwXwM퓲럖뇰듺뇭쿻럑춶헾뢮횧돶돶뿚뫍뷸뿚퓚GDP훐쯹햼뇈샽내헕룃쒣탍돶뿚퓶볓X&>0붫떼훂GDP퓶볓wXX&K Thirlwall1979룹뻝튻킩뺭퇩탔퇐뺿죏캪뿉틔볙뚨폃춬튻훖믵뇒뇭쪾뗄맺쓚췢짌욷뗄쿠뛔볛룱퓚뎤웚훐늻믡폐첫듳뇤뚯벴퓚뎤웚훐pdt−p−e=0돉ftt솢컒쏇뿉틔뾴돶퓚헢룶볙뚨횮쿂Thirlwall뗄짏쫶뷡싛뗈춬폚Harrod맘폚맺볊쎳틗돋쫽뗄샭싛닮뇰뷶퓚폚룃돋쫽샭싛퓚Thirlwal헢샯펵폐룼폐쮵럾솦뗄샭싛믹뒡쇭튻랽쏦뛔폚McCombie1985뗄뷡싛죧맻컒쏇볙뚨쿻럑춶헾뢮횧돶뫍뷸뿚뗄ퟔ훷뇤뚯뚼쫇늻훘튪뗄룃뷡맻튲춬퇹믘맩떽Harrod돋쫽쪵볊짏퓚헢킩볙뚨훐뿉쓜횻폐헾뢮횧돶뗄ퟔ훷뇤뚯늢늻쿔훸헢튻뷡싛탨튪튻킩뷢쫍뛔듋McCombie1985틽폃쇋붣쟅뺭볃헾닟ퟩCambridge Economic Policy Group, CEPC뗄뷡싛죏캪헾뢮횧돶쓚짺뗘쫜떽헾뢮쫕죫뗄풼쫸뛸ퟷ캪헾뢮쫕죫훷튪살풴뗄쮰쫕퓲쫇맺쏱쫕죫뗄튻룶뇈샽틲듋헾뢮횧돶뗄뇤뚯ퟮ훕튪쫜떽맺쏱쫕죫뇤뚯뗄풼쫸벴웤ퟔ훷탔뇤뚯늿럖쫇늻훘튪뗄 뛔Thirlwall뗈죋샭싛뗄볆솿볬퇩튻냣닉폃쿂쇐솽훖믘맩쒣탍뛾헟뗄닮뇰뷶퓚폚쫇럱돐죏헾뢮횧돶쫇튻룶ퟔ훷탔뇤솿 gdp=a+bx+m ttt믲헟 gdp=a+bx+gg+m tttt웤훐gdp,x,g럖뇰듺뇭GDP돶뿚뫍헾뢮횧돶뗄퓶뎤싊5헢훖볬퇩ퟮ뫃 3 캪탰쫶랽뇣웰볻퓚늻펰쿬뷡싛뗄잰쳡쿂릫쪽싔폐룄뚯 5 닎볻Atesoglu(1994)뫍Somez(1996) 7
뗘쮵쏷쇋Thirlwall샭싛붫돶뿚뇤솿떱ퟷ펰쿬뺭볃퓶뎤뗄훘튪췢짺뇤솿뗄샭싛쪵훊 닎헕Thirlwall뗈죋뗄샭싛쿖퓚컒쏇살릹퓬ퟔ벺뗄샭싛쒣탍헽죧짏컄쯹쫶컒쏇쯹맘탄뗄쫇돶뿚퓶볓춨맽듌벤쿻럑춶헾뢮횧돶살볤뷓뗘펰쿬컒맺뗄GDP뗄퓶뎤캪쇋쓜릻퓚쒣탍훐쏷좷뇭쫶헢훖볤뷓펰쿬늢본폚컒맺펵폐듳솿뗄췢믣뒢놸컒쏇늢늻ힼ놸틽죫맺볊쫕횧욽뫢풼쫸ퟷ캪펰쿬퓶뎤뗄틲쯘뛸쫇횱뷓듓뒫춳뗄뾭뛷쮹쒣탍돶랢폫Thirlwall쒣탍튻훂뗄쫇컒쏇뗄쒣탍쯹잿뗷뗄춬퇹쫇돶뿚ퟷ캪튻훖ퟔ훷탔췢짺틲쯘삭뚯뺭볃퓶뎤뗄ퟷ폃쇭튻랽쏦헢튻쒣탍폫McCombie1985횱뷓듓뒫춳뾭뛷쮹쒣탍돶랢뗄쒣탍폖쫇럇뎣뷓뷼뗄 뻟쳥살쮵쒣탍캪튻룶솪솢랽돌ퟩ쒣탍웤훐냼삨쯄룶랽돌벴횧돶램맺쏱쫕죫뫣뗈쪽뫍쿻럑춶뷸뿚몯쫽죽룶몯쫽뗄짨뚨랽램듳훂죧쿂 쿻럑몯쫽컒쏇볙뚨쿻럑뻶뚨폚뻓쏱뗄돖뻃쫕죫늢볙뚨뻓쏱뛔돖뻃쫕죫뗄풤웚내헕쫊펦탔풤웚뗄랽쪽뷸탐뗷헻틔pY뇭쪾뻓쏱뗄돖뻃쫕죫퓲 tp Y=lY+l(1−l)Y−1+L+l(1−k)−+L(0<l<1)(6) ttttk내헕짏쪽늢쪹폃Koyck뇤뮻닎볻Gujarati, 1995, pp594-611쿻럑몯쫽뗄튻룶쿟탔쒣탍뿉틔뇭쪾캪 C=a0+a1Y+a2C+ ttt−1m(7)t춶몯쫽맘폚춶몯쫽뗄샭싛쫇뫪맛뺭볃톧훐ퟮ삧쓑튲ퟮ폐헹틩뗄늿럖듓샭싛짏쮵춶뻶뚨폫웳튵볒뛔웳튵뺭펪잰뺰뗄풤웚쏜쟐쿠맘떫쫇웹뷱캪횹뗄뺭볃샭싛죔좻쎻폐쓜릻뫜뫃뗘붫헢훖풤웚쒣탍뮯틲듋헢샯컒쏇닉폃튻훖ퟮ볲떥뗄볙짨벴뺭볃훐춶뗄맦쒣뻶뚨폚뺭볃뗄ퟜ쳥맦쒣뫍샻싊쮮욽컒쏇춬퇹닉폃튻룶쿟탔쒣탍살쏨쫶춶몯쫽벴 I=b0+b1Y+b2R+n(8) tttt헢샯R캪쪱웚t뗄헦쪵샻싊쮮욽 t캪쇋폫쪹폃횧돶램맺쏱쫕죫뫣뗈쪽횱뷓닢솿췢쎳뛔뺭볃퓶뎤릱쿗돌뛈뗄랽램쿠뛔뇈헢샯컒쏇쯹횸뗄쿻럑뫍춶뚼볈냼삨쮽죋횧돶늿럖폖냼삨헾뢮횧돶늿럖헢뻍짦벰떽헾뢮ퟔ훷탔횧돶쫇럱훘튪뗄헹싛내헕CEPG뗄뷡싛헾뢮횧돶늢늻쓜ퟷ캪튻훖ퟔ훷탔탨쟳살뒦샭틲캪헾뢮횧돶쫇헾뢮쮰쫕뗄몯쫽쮰쫕폖쫇맺쏱쫕죫뗄몯쫽뛔헢튻볙뚨쫇럱쫊폃폚훐맺컒쏇탨튪뷸탐퇩횤 춼1룸돶쇋샺쓪컒맺훐퇫헾뢮닆헾쫕죫뫍횧돶뗄ힴ뿶뿉틔뾴돶훐퇫헾뢮뗄닆헾횧돶폫웤쫕죫폐럇뎣뷴쏜뗄맘쾵떫쫇쫽뻝뇭쏷훐퇫헾뢮뗄닆헾쫕죫햼맺쏱쫕죫뗄뇈샽좴돊훰쓪쿂붵뗄쟷쫆뺡맜죧듋튻킩퇐뺿죏캪헾뢮뗄좫늿쫕죫햼GDP뗄뇈샽좴캴뇘쿂붵틲캪헾뢮뿉쓜훷튪쫇뗘랽헾뢮뗄풤쯣췢쫕죫퓚듳럹뛈퓶볓닎볻뫺쫩뚫2001뗚7헂믹폚짏쫶풭틲헢샯컒쏇죏캪붫헾뢮횧돶춬퇹뾴ퟷ맺쏱쫕죫몯쫽뗄볙짨쫇뫏샭뗄 8
춼1훐퇫헾뢮뗄닆헾쫕횧 ㌵〰쫕죫ퟜ볆횧돶ퟜ볆늿럖횧돶뫍㌰〰㈵〰㈰〰ㄵ〰〰㔰??ㄹ㜸ㄹ㜹ㄹ㠰ㄹ㠱ㄹ㠲ㄹ㠳ㄹ㠴ㄹ㠵ㄹ㠶ㄹ㠷ㄹ㠸ㄹ㠹ㄹ㤰ㄹ㤱ㄹ㤲ㄹ㤳ㄹ㤴ㄹ㤵ㄹ㤶ㄹ㤷ㄹ㤸ㄹ㤹㈰〰 쮵쏷늿럖횧돶뫍캪ퟜ횧돶훐뿛돽쯹폐틆횧뢶쿮쒿 쫽뻝살풴훐맺춳볆쓪본2001 뷸뿚몯쫽컒쏇볙뚨뷸뿚좡뻶폚맺쓚ퟜ탨쟳뫍믣싊쮮욽평폚ퟜ탨쟳뗄룷룶늿럖뛔뷸뿚탨쟳뗄펰쿬돌뛈뿉쓜늻튻퇹쯹틔뷸뿚몯쫽뗄짨뚨죧쿂헢샯컒쏇춬퇹쪹폃쇋튻룶쿟탔쒣탍 M=g0+g1C+g2I+g3X+g4ER+v(9) tttttt웤훐ER뇭쪾쪱웚t뗄쪵볊폐킧믣싊쮮욽 t평폚컒쏇틑뺭붫돶뿚ퟷ캪튻룶ퟔ훷뇤뚯뗄췢짺뇤솿틲듋쒣탍훐쎻폐돶쿖돶뿚몯쫽떫쫇컒쏇춬퇹탨튪뛔헢퇹짨뚨뗄풭틲뷸탐뷢쫍내헕Thirlwall(1994)돶뿚몯쫽놻볙뚨캪 hPX=bde Z PEf웤훐XZ럖뇰뇭쪾돶뿚뫍쫀뷧GDPퟜ뫍E캪틔맺쓚믵뇒뇭쪾뗄췢뇒볛룱Pd,P럖뇰듺뇭맺쓚맺췢뗄볛룱h캪돶뿚뗄볛룱떯탔e캪돶뿚뗄쫕죫떯f탔 헫뛔짏쫶몯쫽짨뚨Thirlwall볙뚨틔춬튻훖믵뇒뇭쪾뗄짌욷볛룱퓚뎤웚훐뇤뚯늻듳벴PEfP뷓뷼폚뎣쫽헢퇹돶뿚몯쫽뻍놻볲뮯캪X=bˆZe벴돶d뿚뷶뷶쫜떽쫀뷧쫕죫쮮욽뗄펰쿬틲듋캪쇋쮵쏷붫돶뿚ퟷ캪쾵춳뗄췢짺뇤솿뗄뫏샭탔컒쏇뻍탨튪퇩횤Thirlwall뗄짏쫶볙뚨뛔훐맺살쮵쫇럱돉솢룹뻝쳖싛컒쏇쪵볊짏횻탨튪볬퇩죋쏱뇒뗄쪵볊폐킧믣싊퓚뎤웚훐뗄뇤뚯쟷쫆 춼2룸돶쇋IMF닢쯣뗄죋쏱뇒쏻틥폐킧믣싊NEER뫍쪵볊폐킧믣싊REER뗄뇤뚯쟷쫆컒쏇랢쿖횻쫇떽1994쓪횮뫳죋쏱뇒뗄쪵볊폐킧믣싊닅듳훂컈뚨쿂살쯹틔Thirlwall볙뚨뛔폚훐맺살쮵캴뇘돉솢헢뿉쓜쫇틲캪볆뮮뺭볃쪱웚죋쏱뇒믣싊놻죋캪룟맀뛸퓚듓볆뮮쿲쫐뎡맽뛈맽돌훐죋쏱뇒믣싊 9
듳럹뛈뇡횵쿲웤뻹뫢캻훃쟷뷼 춼2죋쏱뇒쏻틥뫍쪵볊폐킧믣싊뇤뚯뗄쟷쫆 㐵?久䕒剅䕒㐰?㌵?㌰?㈵?㈰?ㄵ??㔰? 쫽뻝살풴Financial Statistic Yearbook 2001, IMF, Washington. 쯤좻컒쏇늻쓜횱뷓샻폃Thirlwall뗄볙뚨떫컒쏇뿉틔춨맽볆솿볬퇩살퇩횤뛔돶뿚랢짺펰쿬뗄틲쯘틔뇣뻶뚨붫돶뿚ퟷ캪췢짺뇤솿뗄뿉쓜탔컒쏇뗄볬퇩춬퇹닉폃Thirlwall뗄돶뿚몯쫽쫀뷧GDPퟜ뫍쫽뻝살ퟔIMF뗄World Economic Outlook Database (2001)웤쯻쫽뻝살ퟔ샺쓪훐맺춳볆쓪본볬퇩뷡맻죧쿂6 ln(X)=a+(WGDP)−(REER)+m()− Adj−R2===20뿉틔뾴돶쪵볊폐킧믣싊뛔돶뿚뗄펰쿬늢늻쿔훸틲듋돶뿚훷튪쫜떽쫀뷧쫐뎡탨쟳뗄펰쿬맺쓚췢볛룱쮮욽뫍믣싊늨뚯뗄펰쿬늢늻훘튪헢튻뷡싛뛔폚훐맺죔좻쫇돉솢뗄헢퇹컒쏇뻍뿉틔뫏샭뗘붫돶뿚ퟷ캪쒣탍뗄췢짺뇤솿살뒦샭 쪽5789뫏퓚튻웰릹돉쇋튻룶뛠풪쿟탔랽돌ퟩ춨맽뛔룃랽돌ퟩ뗄맀볆컒쏇뿉틔뗃떽튻룶볲뮯쪽뗄맀볆뷡맻 Y=d0+d1C−1+d2R+d3X+d4ER+etttttytC=x0+x1C−1+x2R+x3X+xER+ettttttct I=y0+y1C−1+y2R+y3X+yER+e(10)tttttitM=z0+z1C−1+z2R+z3X+zER+ettttttmt룹뻝룃볲뮯쪽맀볆뷡맻컒쏇붫뗃떽돶뿚뇤뮯뛔GDP뗄ퟮ훕릱쿗돌뛈평폚dYtdX=d3뛸돶뿚퓶뎤뛔뺭볃퓶뎤뗄횱뷓삭뚯뛈캪∆XXtt−1믲헟∆Xt돶뿚tX−1Ytt−1Yt−1퓶뎤뛔뺭볃퓶뎤뗄ퟮ훕릱쿗싊뻍쫇∆XXdtt−13믲헟∆Xdt3춬쪱춨맽뛔맀X−1Ytt−1Yt−1 6 캪쇋뒦샭뛠훘릲쿟탔컊쳢컒쏇닉폃쇋쫽횵뗄닮럖탎쪽뷸탐믘맩틲듋믘맩뷡맻쎻폐쳡릩뎣쫽쿮뗄맀볆 10ㄹ㠰ㄹ㠱ㄹ㠲ㄹ㠳ㄹ㠴ㄹ㠵ㄹ㠶ㄹ㠷ㄹ㠸ㄹ㠹ㄹ㤰ㄹ㤱ㄹ㤲ㄹ㤳ㄹ㤴ㄹ㤵ㄹ㤶ㄹ㤷ㄹ㤸ㄹ㤹㈰〰
볆뷡맻쪽10뗄맛달컒쏇튲뿉틔뗃떽돶뿚퓶뎤뛔쿻럑춶뫍뷸뿚펰쿬뗄돌뛈헢헽쫇컒쏇닉폃쒣탍뗄뷡릹쪽뷸탐맀볆뛸늻쫇횱뷓맀볆쒣탍볲뮯쪽뗄튻룶쒿뗄 죽룄뷸뫳뗄맀볆 쿖퓚컒쏇내헕뗚뛾늿럖룸돶뗄쒣탍닉폃1979-2000쓪볤뗄쿠펦쫽뻝살뷸탐맀볆쫽뻝살풴듳훂죧쿂GDP춶쿻럑뷸뿚뫍돶뿚쫽뻝살ퟔ샺쓪훐맺춳볆쓪본늢쪹폃쿻럑헟컯볛횸쫽붫쏻틥횵뮯캪쪵볊횵샻싊쫽뻝살ퟔ샺쓪훐맺뷰죚쓪본뗄튻쓪웚만뚨닺듻뿮샻싊쫽뻝늢쪹폃쿻럑헟컯볛횸쫽붫웤뮯캪헦쪵샻싊쮮욽믣싊닉폃IMF닢쯣뗄죋쏱뇒쪵볊폐킧믣싊 캪쇋맀볆튻룶쿟탔랽돌ퟩ쒣탍컒쏇쯹쏦쇙뗄뗚튻룶컊쳢쫇퓚뛠훖맀볆랽램횮볤뷸탐톡퓱헢킩맀볆랽램냼삨웕춨ퟮ킡뛾돋램OLS솽뛎ퟮ킡뛾돋램2SLS죽뛎ퟮ킡뛾돋램3SLS뫍쯆늻쿠맘맀볆SUR튻냣살쮵뛔폚킡퇹놾쟩뿶쿂뗄솪솢랽돌ퟩ맀볆2SLS뿉쓜뇈3SLS룼캪뿉좡튻킩쏏쳘뾨싞쪵퇩뗄뷡맻튲틑뺭뇭쏷킡퇹놾쿂뗄SUR맀볆캴뇘뇈OLS킧싊룼룟닎볻룟믝뗈1998뗚512튳평폚컒쏇뗄맀볆쪹폃뗄쫇1979-2000쓪볤뗄쿠펦쫽뻝퇹놾맛닢횵n=22벴쯼쫇튻룶킡퇹놾맀볆쯹틔컒쏇죏캪2SLS쫇쿠뛔뷏뫃뗄맀볆랽램 뇭3뷡릹쪽맀볆뷡맻 랽돌?뷢쫍뇤솿?맀볆튻?맀볆뛾?맀볆죽?쿻???〮㈲†ㄮ㤳??〮㈲†㈮㠶??〮㈲†㈮㠶??럑?????〮㘸†㐮㘲??〮㘷†㐮㘲??〮㘷†㐮㘲??몯?쫽?춳볆솿?䘽㠸㔲⸶??䘽㠸㔲⸶??䘽㤶〱⸶???㴰⸹㤹????㴰⸹㤹????㴰⸹㤹??춶???〮㐱†㔶⸰??〮㐱†㔶⸰??〮㐱†㔶⸰??????㔳⸷㈠?㐮㘱???㔳⸷㈠?㐮㘱???㔳⸷㈠?㐮㘱??몯?쫽?춳볆솿?䘽ㄶ㜴⸳?䘽ㄶ㜴⸳?䘽ㄶ㜴⸲???㴰⸹㤴????㴰⸹㤴????㴰⸹㤴??????〮㌲†?㈮㤲??ⴭ?ⴭ?뷸???〮㘷†㌮ㄱ??ⴭ?ⴭ?뿚???〮㌸†ㄮ㠹??〮㜱†ㄷ⸹??〮㠰†㈳⸴??몯?䕒??ㄮ㌳†?ㄮ㜵???㈮㈸†?㌮ㄳ?ⴭ?쫽?춳볆솿?䘽㈴ㄮ㔳?䘽㐱㈮㘹?䘽㔴㜮????㴰⸹㠴????㴰⸹㜹????㴰⸹㘸??힢뇭룱훐잰튻룶쫽ퟖ캪뷢쫍뇤솿뗄쾵쫽맀볆횵뫳쏦삨뮡훐뗄쫽ퟖ퓲캪룃맀볆뗄t춳볆솿 횵 11
컒쏇쫗쿈내헕뗚뛾늿럖쯹룸돶뗄랽돌ퟩ쪽10퓋폃2SLS랽램뷸탐맀볆틔쿂돆ퟷ맀볆튻뇭3룸돶쇋헢튻맀볆뗄뷡릹쪽맀볆뷡맻맀볆뷡맻뇭쏷뷡릹쪽훐뗄룷룶뇤솿뛔놻뷢쫍뇤솿뗄펰쿬뚼쫇쿔훸뗄룷룶랽돌뗄F횵뫍R2튲뚼뇈뷏샭쿫뛔랽돌죅뚯쿮뗄dw볬퇩뷡맻틲맀볆랽램늻춬뛸폐쯹늻춬떫쫇뛠쫽맀볆뚼뇈뷏샭쿫7 내헕맀볆튻뗄뷡릹쪽맀볆뷡맻컒쏇춨맽퓋쯣뿉틔뗃떽룃맀볆뗄볲뮯쪽뷡맻헢샯횻룸돶뷡맻뗄뗚튻룶랽돌 Y=−+−++ 내헕헢튻뷡맻dYdX=>1룹뻝뇊헟뗄횱뻵헢튻맀볆뿉쓜폐뿤듳돶뿚뛔뺭볃퓶뎤펰쿬돌뛈뗄쿓틉뛔뇭3훐뷡릹쪽맀볆뷡맻뗄뾼달랢쿖맀볆튻뷡맻훐뷸뿚몯쫽훐쿻럑뇤솿뗄쾵쫽쫇뢺횵헢쿔좻쫇폫뺭볃샭싛뗄풤닢랽쿲쿠랴뗄틲듋컒쏇뮳틉룃랽돌뷢쫍뇤솿뻘헳듦퓚뛠훘릲쿟탔쿖쿳캪쇋볬닩룃뷢쫍뇤솿뻘헳뗄탔훊컒쏇럖컶쇋룃랽돌뷢쫍뇤솿CIXER횮볤뗄솽솽쿠맘쾵쫽닎볻뇭4컒쏇랢쿖CIX횮볤뗄솽솽쿠맘쾵쫽뚼뎬맽뷢쫍뇤솿솽솽쿠맘쾵쫽맽듳쮵쏷믘맩랽돌튻뚨듦퓚퇏훘뗄뛠훘릲쿟탔컊쳢8 뛠훘릲쿟탔뗄듦퓚쪹뗃컒쏇퓚맀볆튻훐쯹뗃떽뗄뷡맻늻뿉쓜쫇ힼ좷뗄맀볆뷡맻캪쇋뗃떽ힼ좷뗄맀볆뷡맻컒쏇뇘탫쫊떱뗘뒦샭믘맩훐뗄뛠훘릲쿟탔컊쳢평폚컒쏇쯹쪹폃뗄쒣탍캪튻룶쿟탔랽돌ퟩ쒣탍헢쪹뗃뛔뛠훘릲쿟탔컊쳢뗄뒦샭뇤뗃틬뎣뢴퓓틲듋컒쏇럅웺쇋뛔뛠훘릲쿟탔컊쳢뗄횱뷓뒦샭뛸좥맀볆솽룶탂뗄랽돌ퟩ헢솽룶랽돌ퟩ폫풭폐랽돌ퟩ뗄닮뇰퓚폚컒쏇붫웤훐뗄뷸뿚몯쫽럖뇰짨뚨캪 M=g0+g1X+g2ER+v(11) tttt뫍 M=g0+g1X+v(12) tttt 뇭4뷸뿚랽돌뷢쫍뇤솿뗄솽솽쿠맘쾵쫽 쿠맘쾵쫽?C I X ER C I X ER 쿔좻죧맻풭랽돌ퟩ뗄짨뚨쫇헽좷뗄쪹폃쪽11믲12쳦뮻풭랽돌ퟩ훐뗄뷸뿚몯쫽믡뗃떽폐욫뗄믘맩뷡맻헢샯컒쏇늻럁돆쪹폃쪽11쳦듺뫳 7 뛔얼뛻돶쿖뗄dw볬퇩늻쓜춨맽뗄쿖쿳놾컄쎻폐뷸탐뒦샭뛁헟춨맽뛔쿂컄뗄퓄뛁뿉틔쇋뷢컒쏇헢퇹ퟶ뗄풭틲컒쏇붫훷튪춨맽뛔룷훖맀볆랽램뗄뛔뇈살에뛏돶뿚퓶뎤뛔뺭볃퓶뎤뗄펰쿬돌뛈틲듋죧맻내헕뛔펦뗄웤쯻맀볆랽램dw볬퇩쓜릻춨맽컒쏇뻍쓜릻춨맽뛔뇈살좷뚨죅뚯쿮ퟔ쿠맘뛔쎻폐춨맽dw볬퇩뗄랽돌맀볆뷡맻뗄펰쿬돌뛈 8 랴횮퓲캴뇘닎볻Gujarati, D. N. (1995)뗚336튳 12
뗄믘맩뷡맻캪맀볆뛾쿠펦뗘쪹폃쪽12쳦듺뫳뗄믘맩뷡맻캪맀볆죽떫쫇컒쏇뿉틔풤볆맀볆뛾믡뿤듳돶뿚퓶뎤뛔뺭볃퓶뎤뗄펰쿬맀볆죽퓲뿉쓜뗍맀돶뿚퓶뎤뛔뺭볃퓶뎤뗄펰쿬헢쫇틲캪1내헕잰쏦뗄럖컶돶뿚뛔뷸뿚뗄펰쿬풽듳쯼뛔뺭볃퓶뎤뗄듙뷸ퟷ폃뻍믡풽킡2듓샭싛짏쮵퓚돶뿚랽돌훐쿻럑춶뫍돶뿚뗄퓶뎤뛔뷸뿚뗄펰쿬뚼쫇헽쿲뗄뛸쪵볊폐킧믣싊뗄펰쿬퓲쫇뢺쿲뗄죧맻퓚쒣탍훐쳞돽뻟폐헽쿲펰쿬뗄쿻럑뫍춶뇤솿믘맩뷡맻뻍뿉쓜냑헢솽룶뇤솿뗄펰쿬쯣ퟶ돶뿚뗄펰쿬틲듋룟맀돶뿚뇤뮯뛔뷸뿚뗄펰쿬쿠랴죧맻퓚쒣탍훐쳞돽뻟폐뢺쿲펰쿬뗄믣싊틲쯘퓲뿉쓜뗍맀돶뿚뇤뮯뛔뷸뿚뗄펰쿬 맀볆뛾뫍맀볆죽뗄뷡릹쪽맀볆뷡맻틑뺭퓚짏쏦뗄뇭3훐룸돶샠쯆뗘컒쏇뿉틔춨맽룃뷡릹쪽뷡맻췆쯣돶웤볲뮯쪽뷡맻헢샯춬퇹횻룸돶볲뮯쪽뷡맻뗄뗚튻룶랽돌쪽웤훐맀볆뛾뗄볲뮯쪽뷡맻캪 Y=−+−++ 맀볆죽뗄볲뮯쪽뷡맻퓲캪 Y=−+−+ 뛔헢솽룶볲뮯쪽뷡맻뗄맛달펡횤쇋컒쏇짏쏦뗄췆뛏컒쏇랢쿖뷡릹쪽맀볆뷡맻훐돶뿚뛔뷸뿚펰쿬돌뛈풽듳볲뮯쪽뷡맻훐돶뿚뛔뺭볃퓶뎤뗄펰쿬돌뛈뻍풽킡평폚맀볆죽뗄뷡릹쪽맀볆뷡맻훐dMdX컈뚨퓚뗄룟쮮욽벴돶뿚쎿퓶볓1풪믡떼훂뷸뿚퓶볓풪컒쏇쟣쿲폚죏캪맀볆죽볲뮯쪽맀볆뷡맻훐dYdX뗄맀볆횵튲믹놾짏듺뇭쇋룷훖맀볆랽램쯹뗃쿠펦뷡맻뗄ퟮ뗍쮮욽 내헕죽룶볲뮯쪽뷡맻늢뷡뫏짏쫶쳖싛컒쏇붫dYdX뗄헦쪵횵좷뚨퓚떽횮볤쿖퓚컒쏇늻럁볙뚨dYdX=벴맀볆죽뗄뷡맻늢룹뻝잰컄룸돶뗄랽램살볆쯣돶뿚퓶뎤뛔뺭볃퓶뎤뗄릱쿗싊볆쯣뷡맻랴펳퓚뇭5훐 내헕뇭5쯹룸쫽횵컒쏇뿉틔볆쯣돶샺쓪뗄맺쓚짺닺ퟜ횵뛔돶뿚뇤뚯뗄떯탔컒쏇랢쿖퓚뻅쪮쓪듺룃떯탔쫽횵듳훂퓚ퟳ폒욽뻹횵벴돶뿚쎿퓶뎤10%뿉틔듙뷸맺쓚짺닺ퟜ횵퓶뎤붫뷼1룶냙럖뗣룃떯탔뗄쫽횵퓚냋쪮쓪듺퓲쿠뛔뷏뗍헢뿉쓜훷튪쫇틲캪돶뿚햼맺쓚짺닺ퟜ횵뗄뇈샽쯦ퟅ쪱볤뗄뇤뮯폐퓶뎤뗄쟷쫆닎볻춼3냋쪮쓪듺퓧웚돶뿚햼맺쓚짺닺ퟜ횵뗄뇈샽뗍폚10%뇈죧1979쓪캪%뻅쪮쓪듺뫳웚퓲믹놾짏컈뚨퓚20%ퟳ폒뇈죧2000쓪캪%돶뿚햼맺쓚짺닺ퟜ횵뇈샽뗄퓶볓뇘좻퓶볓돶뿚뇤뚯뛔뺭볃퓶뎤펰쿬뗄돌뛈헢듓쇭튻룶뷇뛈횤쏷쇋돶뿚퓶뎤뛔컒맺뺭볃뗄훘튪탔 9 폫헢튻맀볆횵쿠펦뗄dMdX=내헕헢튻쫽횵컒쏇뿉틔볆쯣돶샺쓪훐뷸뿚뛔돶뿚떯탔뗄욽뻹횵뷡맻캪뿉틔뾴돶헢튻뷡맻뫜뷓뷼뇭2훐뗄떯탔쫽횵헢튲쮵쏷맀볆횵dYdX=뷓뷼룃뇤솿맀볆횵뗄ퟮ뗍쿞 13
뇭5내헕룄뷸뫳뗄랽램닢쯣뗄돶뿚릱쿗싊 뫍췢쎳릱쿗싊 떥캻% 쓪†?䜠䐠??돶†뿚?돶†뿚?췢†쎳?쓪†?䜠䐠??돶†뿚?돶†뿚?췢†쎳?럝?퓶뎤싊?퓶뎤싊?릱쿗싊?릱쿗싊?럝?퓶뎤싊?퓶뎤싊?릱쿗싊?릱쿗싊?ㄹ㠱?㔮㌲?㌲⸵??ㄮ〵?ㄮㄹ?ㄹ㤱?㠮㠳?㈰⸰??ㄮ㜷?ㄮ㐲?ㄹ㠲?ㄲ⸱??ㄲ⸶??〮㔱?ㄮ㤳?ㄹ㤲?ㄲ⸶??ㄳ⸲??ㄮ㈹??〮㤴?ㄹ㠳?㤮㔲?㐮㠰?〮㈰??〮㘳?ㄹ㤳?ㄶ⸴???ㄮ㌵??〮ㄳ??㌮㐴?ㄹ㠴?ㄲ⸳??㈶⸲??ㄮ〲??〮㈱?ㄹ㤴?ㄳ⸹??㘴⸵??㔮㌴?㘮㘷?ㄹ㠵?ㄱ⸳??㈶⸴??ㄮㄶ??㌮㤸?ㄹ㤵?㤮㜴?㔮㔷?〮㘷?〮㤲?ㄹ㠶?⸲??㈷⸹??ㄮ㌹?㈮㈲?ㄹ㤶?⸲???㐮㘵??〮㔳?〮㌳?ㄹ㠷?⸶???㤮㈶?ㄮ㘹?㌮㘲?ㄹ㤷?㠮㜶?ㄹ⸶??ㄮ㤵?㌮ㄷ?ㄹ㠸?ㄱ⸲??㜮ㄶ?〮㐸??〮㤵?ㄹ㤸?㠮?㈮㤵?〮㌲?〮㔵?ㄹ㠹?㈮㠸?ㄮ㜲?〮ㄱ??〮〷?ㄹ㤹?㘮㜲?㠮㔱?〮㠹??〮㐳?ㄹ㤰?㔮㌲?㐴⸵??㈮㠵?㔮㜵?㈰〰?㠮㔶?㈶⸵??㈮㠱?ㄮ㐸? ퟮ뫳캪쇋폫뒫춳뗄볆쯣췢쎳뛔뺭볃퓶뎤릱쿗뗄랽램쿠뇈뷏컒쏇뿉틔룹뻝잰쏦뗄쳖싛살훘탂뚨틥췢쎳뛔뺭볃퓶뎤뗄릱쿗싊틔뇣좫쏦뗘랴펳돶뿚뫍뷸뿚뛔뺭볃퓶뎤뗄릱쿗헢샯컒쏇붫췢쎳뛔뺭볃퓶뎤뗄릱쿗싊훘탂뚨틥캪뺻돶뿚뛔뺭볃퓶뎤뗄횱뷓릱쿗볓짏돶뿚춨맽틽훂쿻럑뫍춶뗄퓶뎤뛸뛔뺭볃퓶뎤ퟷ돶뗄릱쿗웤릫쪽캪{(dC+dI)∆X+∆NEYdXdXtt}t−1듓뷡릹쪽맀볆뷡맻훐컒쏇뿉틔좡뗃dCdX뫍dIdX뗄쿠펦쫽뻝틲듋훘탂뚨틥뗄췢쎳릱쿗싊뿉틔랽뇣뗘볆쯣돶살 뇭5춬쪱룸돶쇋내헕헢튻랽램볆쯣뗄췢쎳릱쿗싊쫽뻝폫뒫춳랽램쿠뇈룄뷸뫳뗄볆쯣랽램평폚뾼싇쇋돶뿚퓶뎤뛔쿻럑뫍춶뗄볤뷓펰쿬쯹틔퓚돶뿚퓶볓뗄쓪럝컒쏇붫뗃떽튻룶뇈뒫춳랽램룼듳뗄릱쿗싊쫽횵뇈죧내헕뒫춳뗄볆쯣랽램1999쓪뫍2000쓪췢쎳뛔뺭볃퓶뎤뗄릱쿗싊뚼쫇뢺횵헢뿉쓜쫇틲캪퓚헢솽룶쓪럝뷸뿚뚼폐듳럹뛈퓶뎤늢쟒뷸뿚퓶뎤뗄럹뛈뎬맽돶뿚뇈죧폫1998쓪쿠뇈1999쓪돶뿚퓶볓쇋%뛸뷸뿚퓲퓶볓쇋%헢뇭쏷듦퓚돶뿚횮췢뗄웤쯻틲쯘듌벤쇋뷸뿚뗄퓶볓내헕룄뷸뫳뗄닢쯣랽램쯤좻1999쓪췢쎳뛔뺭볃퓶뎤뗄릱쿗죔좻캪뢺횵%떫웤뢺쏦펰쿬뗄돌뛈퓲듳듳킡폚뻉랽램쯹뗃쫽횵%탂랽램쯹볆쯣뗄2000쓪췢쎳뛔뺭볃퓶뎤뗄릱쿗싊퓲폫뒫춳랽램쯹뗃쫽횵%쿠랴캪튻룶헽횵%평폚2000쓪쯤좻뷸뿚뗄퓶볓뎬맽30%떫돶뿚퓶볓퓲뷓뷼27%뾼싇떽돶뿚퓶볓뛔쿻럑뫍춶뗄펰쿬ퟷ폃2000쓪췢쎳뛔뺭볃퓶뎤폐튻룶헽뗄릱쿗싊뗄볆쯣뷡맻뮹쫇뇈뷏뿉탅뗄 14
춼3샺쓪훐돶뿚햼GDP뗄뇈샽% ㈵⸰?㈰⸰?ㄵ⸰?⸰?㔮〰〮〰 뷡폯 뒫춳뗄뫢솿뛔췢쎳틗뛔뺭볃퓶뎤릱쿗돌뛈뗄랽램평폚쎻폐뾼싇돶뿚폫뷸뿚퓚뺭볃퓋탐훐뗄늻춬ퟷ폃틔벰뺭볃뇤솿횮볤뗄쿠뮥펰쿬맘쾵쯹틔쟣쿲폚뗍맀췢쎳뛔뺭볃퓶뎤뗄릱쿗뛈놾컄뛔뒫춳랽램쯹ퟶ룄뷸뗄뫋탄퓚폚컒쏇잿뗷뇘탫뾼싇돶뿚뛔맺쏱쫕죫뫣뗈쪽훐쿻럑뫍춶솽룶늿럖뗄펰쿬횻폐헢퇹컒쏇닅뿉쓜좫쏦뗘죏쪶췢쎳뛔컒맺뺭볃퓶뎤뗄릱쿗돌뛈내놾컄뗄맀볆췢쎳돶뿚퓶뎤10%붫떼훂컒맺맺쏱뺭볃퓶뎤1% 펦떱횸돶놾컄뗄쳖싛늢럇횻쫇튻훖쫽ퟖ폎쾷죏쪶뗄늻춬뿉쓜믡랴펳떽뺭볃헾닟뗄닣쏦컒쏇죏캪뛔폚삩듳쓚탨뗄헾닟뾼싇폫뛔췢쎳틗뛔컒맺뺭볃뗄훘튪탔늢늻쎬뛜뛸뛔췢쎳틗뗄뷸튻늽랢햹폖폫컒맺쓜럱내헕ퟔ벺뺭볃뗄뇈뷏폅쫆살뗷헻닺튵뷡릹폐훘듳맘쾵 평폚룄뷸뫳뗄뫢솿랽램탨튪춨맽볆솿럖컶살좷뚨돶뿚뛔뺭볃퓶뎤뗄펰쿬돌뛈쒣탍뗄짨뚨뫍맀볆랽램뗄톡퓱뻍뿉쓜뛔뷡맻닺짺훘듳펰쿬놾컄뗄쒣탍짨뚨뫍맀볆랽램뿉쓜뚼늻쓜쯣ퟶퟮ샭쿫뗄틲듋폐듽뷸튻늽룄뷸 닎뾼컄쿗 Atesoglu(1994), An application of a Kaldorian export-led model of growth to the United States, Applied Economics, 26, 479-483. Dixon, R. and Thirwall A. P. (1975), A model of regional growth-rate difference on Kaldorian lines, Oxford Economic Papers, July, 1975 Feder, G. (1983), On export and economic growth, Journal of Development Economics 12, 59-73. 䝲潳浡測⁇⸠慮搠䕬桡湡渠䡥汰浡渮‱㤰?⸠䍯浰慲慴楶攠慤癡湴慧攠慮搠汯湧?牵渠 15ㄹ㜹ㄹ㠰ㄹ㠱ㄹ㠲ㄹ㠳ㄹ㠴ㄹ㠵ㄹ㠶ㄹ㠷ㄹ㠸ㄹ㠹ㄹ㤰ㄹ㤱ㄹ㤲ㄹ㤳ㄹ㤴ㄹ㤵ㄹ㤶ㄹ㤷ㄹ㤸ㄹ㤹㈰〰
杲潷瑨⸠䅭敲楣慮?䕣潮潭楣⁒敶楥眠㠰⠴⤺‷㤶?㠱㔮?Gujarati, D. N. (1995), Basic Economitrics, McGraw-Hill, Inc Kaldor, N. (1972), Capitalism and industrial development: Some lessons from Britain’s experience, in Kaldor, N. , Further essays on applied economics, Holmes & Meler Publishers, Inc, 1978. McCombie G. S. L. (1985), Economic growth, the Harrod foreign trade multiplier and Hick’ super-multiplier, Applied Economics, 17, 55-72. 䵣䍯浢楥Ⱐ䨮湤⁁⸠周楲汷慬氮‱㤹㐮?䕣潮潭楣⁇牯睴栠慮搠瑨攠䉡污湣攠潦?偡祭敮瑳潮獴牡楮琮?䱯湤潮Ⱐ却⸠䵡牴楮献?䵣䍯浢楥Ⱐ䨮湤⁁⸠周楲汷慬氮‱㤹㜮⁔桥祮慭楣⁈慲牯搠䙯牥楧渠呲慤攠䵵汴楰汩敲湤⁴桥⁄敭慮摯物敮瑥搠䅰灲潡捨⁴漠䕣潮潭楣⁇牯睴栺渠敶慬畡瑩潮⸠䥮瑥牮慴楯湡氠䩯畲湡氠潦⁁灰汩搠?䕣潮潭楣猬ㄱ⠱⤺‵?㈶??䵣䍯浢楥Ⱐ䨮湤⁁⸠周楲汷慬氮‱㤹㤮“䝲?潷瑨渠慮湴敲湡瑩潮慬潮瑥硴㨠愠偯獴⁋敹湥獩慮⁶楥?”⸠䥮㨠䑥灲敺Ⱐ䨮湤⁊潨渠䡡牶敹⸠䙯畮摡瑩潮猠潦⁉湴敲湡瑩潮慬⁅捯湯浩捳㨠偯獴⁋敹湥獩慮⁐敲獰散瑩癥献䱯湤潮Ⱐ副畴汥摧攮?卯浥稨ㄹ㤶⤬⁁敭慮?潲楥湴敤硰污湡瑩潮映散潮潭楣牯睴栠楮⁇敲浡湹??䩯畲湡氠潦⁐潳??䭥祮獩慮⁅捯湯浩捳Ⱐ噯氮‱㤬⁉獳略‱Ⱐ倱〱??Thirlwall, A. P.(1979), The balance of payment constraint as an explanation of international growth rate difference, Banca Nazionale del Lavoro Quarterly Review, 1979 Thirlwall, A. P.(1980), Regional problem are balance of payments’ problems, Regional Studies, 5, 1980 Thirlwall, A. P.(1987), Keynes, economic development and the developing countries, in A. P. Thirlwall (ed.), Keynes and economic development, London: Macmillan, 1987 룟믝뗈1998SAS쾵춳SAS/ETS죭볾쪹폃쫖닡훐맺춳볆돶냦짧 역뢣캰1999퓵퇹뾴듽쒿잰뛔췢쎳틗뛔맺쏱뺭볃퓶뎤뗄ퟷ폃맺볊쎳틗컊쳢1999쓪뗚1웚 췢쎳헾닟퇐뺿뿎쳢ퟩ1999컒맺췢쎳뛔뺭볃퓶뎤뗄릱쿗폫췢쎳럶돖헾닟뗷헻뗄믹놾좡쿲닆쎳뺭볃1999쓪뗚6웚 췵ퟓ쿈1998룼펦힢훘뚯첬킧펦췢쎳퓚맺쏱뺭볃랢햹훐뗘캻폫ퟷ폃뗄퓙죏쪶맺볊쎳틗1998쓪뗚10웚 훬컄믔1998훐맺돶뿚떼쿲햽싔뗄쏔쮼듳맺뗄뺭퇩폫훐맺뗄톡퓱햽싔폫맜샭1998쓪뗚5웚 헅킡볃뫺붭퓆1999퓚ퟔ평쎳틗뗄놳뫳뷸뿚쎳틗폫맺쏱뺭볃랢햹맺볊쎳틗1999쓪뗚4웚 16
