2004쓪12퓂뗚18뻭뗚6웚ꆡꆡꆡꆡꆡꆡꆡꆡꆡꆡꆡꆡ뮪ꆡ뚫ꆡ뺭ꆡ볃ꆡ맜ꆡ샭EꆡꆡꆡꆡꆡꆡꆡꆡꆡꆡꆡꆡDec1,2004astChinaEconomicManagementVol118,No16컒맺믵뇒탨쟳몯쫽뗄뺭퇩럖컶헔폀쇁(퇎돇릤톧풺ꆡ뺭볃폫맜샭톧풺,붭쯕ꆡ퇎돇ꆡ224005)[햪튪]놾컄쪹폃뻖늿뗷헻쒣탍뛔컒맺믵뇒탨쟳몯쫽뷸탐쇋럖컶,쳡돶퓚믵뇒탨쟳몯쫽뗄럖컶훐,펦맘힢쫐뎡뮯샻싊,틔뇣뛔돖뇒돉놾ퟶ돶뫏샭뗄뷢쫍ꆣ[맘볼듊]믵뇒탨쟳;샻싊;쒣탍;뺭퇩럖컶[훐춼럖샠뫅]F015ꆡꆡꆡ[컄쿗뇪쪶싫]Aꆡꆡꆡ[컄헂뇠뫅]1007ꆪ5097(2004)06ꆪ0062ꆪ04EmpiricalAnalysisonDemandforMoneyFunctioninChinaZHAOYong2liang(SchoolofEconomicsandManagement,YanchengInstituteofTechnology,Yancheng224005,China)Abstract:Applyingthepartialreadjustmentmodel,theauthoranalyzesthemoneydemandfunctionofChina,andputsforwardthatinmoneydemandfunction,weshouldpaycloseattentiontomarket2basedinterestrate,:demandformoney;interestrate;model;empiricalanalysisꆡꆡ믵뇒탨쟳솿쫇뺭볃톧훐뗄훘튪뇤솿,릹퓬튻룶뷏캪뺫좷뇒탨쟳솿폫뻶뚨믵뇒탨쟳솿훮뇤솿횮볤뗄몯쫽맘쾵쫇컈뚨뗄믵뇒탨쟳쒣탍뛔뫪맛뗷뿘ꆢ샻싊퇐뺿뫍춶퇐뺿뻟폐쪮럖뗄ꆣ믵뇒탨쟳솿뛔샻싊뇤뚯뗄떯탔늢늻뫜룟ꆣ퓚믵뇒탨쟳뗄훘튪뗄틢틥ꆣ샻싊떯탔컊쳢짏,뾭뛷쮹톧엉폫믵뇒톧엉닺짺뫜듳럖웧,죧튻ꆢ믵뇒탨쟳샭싛맻샻싊떯탔뫜듳,퓲믵뇒떱뻖춨뎣믡톡퓱샻싊ퟷ캪믵뇒헾닟믵뇒탨쟳샭싛쫇믵뇒샭싛훐뗄훘튪쓚죝횮튻,쫇믵뇒헾뗄훐뷩쒿뇪,죧맻샻싊떯탔뷏킡,믵뇒떱뻖퓲믡톡퓱믵뇒릩닟톡퓱뗄샭싛틀뻝ꆣ퓧웚뗄믵뇒탨쟳샭싛폐럑톩붻틗랽돌쪽펦솿ퟷ캪훐뷩쒿뇪살펰쿬컯볛쮮욽뫍쫕죫ꆣ뫍붣쟅랽돌쪽ꆣ럑톩붻틗랽돌쪽뇭쏷,쇷춨훐뗄믵뇒솿폫쏻뛾ꆢ믵뇒탨쟳몯쫽뗄뺭퇩퇐뺿틥쫕죫PY돉헽뇈,폫믵뇒쇷춨쯙뛈V돉랴뇈,믵뇒쇷춨쯙뾭뛷쮹죏캪:평붻틗뚯믺뫍풤럀뚯믺뻶뚨뗄믵뇒탨쟳좡뛈퓚뛌웚쓚쿠떱컈뚨ꆣ럑톩붻틗랽돌쪽뷶뷶쫇퓧웚뛔믵뇒탨뻶폚쫕죫쮮욽;믹폚춶믺뚯믺뗄믵뇒탨쟳퓲좡뻶폚샻싊쮮쟳뗄튻훖듖싔맀볆,릫쪽훐쎻폐쳥쿖샻싊뇤뮯뛔믵뇒탨쟳뗄욽ꆣ틲듋뾭뛷쮹뗄믵뇒탨쟳몯쫽죧쿂쪽:펰쿬ꆣ붣쟅톧엉뗄믵뇒쫽솿싛횸돶,믵뇒탨쟳폫쏻틥쫕죫춬L=L1+L2=L1(Y)+L2(r)랽쿲뇤뚯,떫쯼쏇횮볤뗄뇈싊늻쫇튻룶뎣쫽ꆣ붣쟅뗄믵뇒쫽퓚뷌뿆쫩훐믵뇒탨쟳뗄뻟쳥몯쫽쪽튻냣놻쏨쫶캪:솿싛틑뺭죏쪶떽쇋믵뇒탨쟳쫜뛠훖틲쯘펰쿬,횻쫇쎻폐퓚랽L=(ky-hr)P돌쪽훐뷸튻늽햹뾪ꆣ펦떱쮵쏷뗄쫇,짏쪽쫇튻룶늻뺫좷뗄뇭듯쪽,틲캪룹뻝뾭뛷쮹뗄믵뇒탨쟳샭싛잿뗷쇋샻싊뛔믵뇒탨쟳뗄ퟷ폃ꆣ룃쪽,떱Y=0쪱L/P펦룃뗈폚-hr,헢틢캶ퟅ떱r캪헽횵횸돶믵뇒뗄붻틗탨쟳뫍풤럀탨쟳훷튪쫜쫕죫펰쿬,뛸춶믺탨쪱,L2/P캪뢺횵,듋훖뷡맻늻럻뫏쫂쪵ꆣ쟳훷튪쫜샻싊펰쿬ꆣ뾭뛷쮹뗄믵뇒탨쟳샭싛뇭쏷믵뇒쇷춨쯙믵뇒톧엉닉퓚뛔믵뇒탨쟳몯쫽뗄쪵횤럖컶훐,춨맽볲뮯뛈늢럇뎣솿ꆣ놫쒪뛻퓋폃ퟮ폅뿢듦뿘훆벼쫵뛔믵뇒뗄붻틗탨믵뇒탨쟳훷튪캪솽룶틲쯘쯹뻶뚨,벴쫕죫뫍샻싊:쟳뷸탐쇋뷸튻늽퇐뺿,컖싗ꆢ쏗샕ꆢ췐뇶뗈뛔믵뇒뗄풤럀탨M쟳뷸탐쇋랢햹,췐뇶뾴떽쇋뾭뛷쮹믵뇒춶믺탨쟳샭싛뗄좱P=f(Y,R)쿝춨맽뺭퇩퇐뺿,붨솢쇋죧쿂랽돌:,횸돶죋쏇뿉틔춬쪱돖폐햮좯뫍믵뇒,퓚뾭뛷쮹믵뇒탨쟳샭싛믹뒡짏붨솢쇋쯻뗄춶믺탔믵뇒탨쟳쒣탍ꆣM뢥샯뗂싼뗄쿖듺믵뇒쫽솿싛붫믵뇒뾴ퟷ쫇튻훖닺P=aYbRc,쳡돶쇋쫕죫뫍닆뢻ꆢ돖뇒돉놾ꆢ돖뇒킧폃뗈틲쯘펰쿬믵뇒탨솽뇟좡뛔쫽,뗃떽M:lnP=lna+blnY+clnRꆡꆡ(1)쟳,듓뛸뗃돶믵뇒톧엉뗄믵뇒탨쟳몯쫽ꆣ뢥샯뗂싼죏캪,믵(1)쪽놻죏캪쫇뺭맽듳솿믵뇒탨쟳몯쫽뺭퇩퇐뺿쯹뗃떽뗄믹[쫕룥죕웚]ꆡ2004ꆪ11ꆪ09[ퟷ헟볲뷩]ꆡ헔폀쇁(1971ꆪ),쓐,붲쪦,뺭볃톧쮶쪿,퇐뺿랽쿲:뷰죚톧ꆣꆪ62ꆪ
놾릫쪽,c쫇샻싊떯탔ꆣ쯘ꛋ);죽쫇볆뮮쳥훆죭풼쫸퓬돉뗄맽뛈뷰탨쟳ꆣ쟘뛤뗄믵1970쓪듺훐웚틔잰,뇪ힼ뗄M1믵뇒탨쟳몯쫽쫇평웕쇖뇒탨쟳몯쫽캪:Md=f(y,p,RI,RF,RL)쮹뛙듳톧뗄룪뗇럑뛻뗂퓚1973쓪뗄ퟛ뫏퇐뺿훐맀볆뗄,쯻웤훐y뫍p럖뇰뇭쪾벴웚쫕죫폫볛룱쮮욽,RI캪샻싊,뗄쒣탍퓚떱쪱ퟮ쫜췆돧ꆣ퓚듋믹뒡짏,쏀솪뒢룹뻝쯻뗄퇐뺿폃살랴펳틖훆탔춶믺탨쟳틲쯘,떫퓚믵뇒몯쫽훐좱랦뷢쫍돉맻,쳡돶튻룶룼캪돉쫬뗄믵뇒탨쟳솿볆솿쒣탍ꋙ:솦,RF캪믵뇒뮯뷸돌훐맺폐릤튵닺돶뇈싊,랴펳믵뇒뮯틲MdMsY쯘뛔믵뇒탨쟳뗄펰쿬;RL캪죭풼쫸뗄듦듻뇈싊,랴펳짏쫶lnP=a0+a1lnP+a2lnP+a3lnR+a4lnR+a4lnrꆡ(2)뗄뗚죽훖틲쯘뛔믵뇒탨쟳뗄ퟷ폃ꆣ쪽훐Md,틗룙뫍쟘뛤뗄쒣탍뷏뛠뗘뾼싇쇋훐맺뗄믵뇒뮯뷸돌뫍볆P:쪵볊믵뇒탨쟳솿;M뮮뺭볃뗄죭풼쫸,퓚떱쪱살뾴펦룃쮵뛔뷢쫍훐맺뗄쪵볊뺭볃sP:짏웚틑횪뗄믵뇒릩펦솿;쿖쿳뻟폐훘튪뗄ퟷ폃ꆣY퓚쪵횤럖컶랽쏦,쟘췰쮳ꆢ맹쫀냮(1991)럖뇰붫짧믡P:쪵볊맺쏱짺닺ퟜ횵;짌욷쇣쫛ퟜ뛮ꆢ맺쏱쫕죫뫍돇쿧뻓쏱뿉횧엤쫕죫ퟷ캪펰쿬R:솪냮믹뷰샻싊뗄ퟛ뫏;M0ꆢM1뫍M2뗄맦쒣뇤솿,늢퓋폃1956-1986쓪볤뗄퇹놾r:뚨웚듦뿮뫍뎤웚햮좯뗈샻싊뗄ퟛ뫏;쫽뻝,볆쯣돶헢웚볤쓪뻹M0뛔쪵볊짧믡쇣쫛짌욷ퟜ뛮뗄떯a0ꆢa1ꆢa2ꆢa3ꆢa4:뎣쫽쾵쫽ꆣ탔캪0186;쓪뻹M1뛔쪵볊맺쏱쫕죫뗄떯탔캪0156;돇쿧뻓(1)쪽뫍(2)쪽뿉틔럖뇰뾴돉쫇뎤웚뗄탨쟳몯쫽쒣탍쏱뚨웚뒢탮뛔뿉횧엤쫕죫뗄떯탔캪0195ꆣ뫍뛌웚탨쟳몯쫽ꆣ듓뎤웚살붲,쪵훊쫕죫ꆢ샻싊뫍볛룱쫇뎤캪쇋늻훁폚퓚붨솢쒣탍쪱틅슩뗴훘튪뇤솿,췲맢닊ꆢ쇵웚탨쟳몯쫽뗄훷튪뻶뚨틲쯘,뛸뛌웚탨쟳몯쫽돽냼몬뎤웚믵샲닉폃평랱훁볲,훰붥쳞돽늻쿔훸뇤솿뗄랽램,닉폃1994뇒탨쟳몯쫽쯹폐뇤솿췢,뮹펦냼삨훍뫳뇤솿,틔랴펦평폚탅쓪1벾뛈떽1999쓪2벾뛈뗄쫽뻝,뗃돶쿂쏦뗄믵뇒탨쟳몯쾢늻췪좫ꆢ맟탔쯹떼훂뗄뗷헻햳탔ꆣ웤췆떼맽돌쿠뛔뢴퓓튻쫽:킩:ln(M1t/P)=31201+0172ln(GDPt/P)-01241ln(Rt)틔M3뇭쪾죋쏇틢풸돖폐믵뇒뗄듦솿(뛸럇쪵볊돖폐뗄+010584ln(SVt)믵뇒듦솿)퓲:M3=kRꛁtYꛂtꛅtln(M2t/P)=1168+01996ln(GDPt/P)-01255ln(Rt)몯쫽훐k캪닎쫽,R듺뇭돖폐믵뇒뗄믺믡돉놾,M뫍Y+0103149ln(SVt)뚼듺뇭쪵훊쿮(쏻틥뇤솿돽틔볛룱쮮욽)ꆣ틔뛔쫽탎쪽훘킴웤훐SV캪막욱쫐횵ꆣ랽돌,틔킡킴ퟖ쒸듺뇭뛔쫽뇤솿,뿉믱뗃죧쿂랽돌ꋚ:췵쿾쳬ꆢ붹랽틥뺭맽싟벭뫍쪵횤뗄랴뢴ꆰ쫔듭ꆱ,죏캪m3=ꛃ+ꛁrt+ꛂyt+ꛍt맦쒣뇤솿ꆢ믺믡돉놾뇤솿뫍훆뛈탔믲뷡릹탔뇤솿뛔훐맺뗄뎤퓚죎뫎쪱웚,쪵볊돖폐뗄폠뛮늢늻튻뚨뗈폚풸췻돖폐뗄웚믵뇒탨쟳폐뻶뚨탔뗄펰쿬ꆣ맦쒣뇤솿쫇횸쓇킩폫짧믡뺭볃믵뇒폠뛮,Chow쳡돶쇋튻룶볲떥뗄뻖늿뗷헻믺훆,쯻볙뚨랢햹쮮욽폐맘뗄뇤솿,죧쫕죫ꆢ닆뢻ꆢ닺솿뗈;믺믡돉놾뇤퓚솽룶쪱웚횮볤돖폐믵뇒뗄뇤뮯쫇퓚떱뷱쪱웚풸췻돖폐폠뛮솿쫇랴펳캢맛뺭볃훷쳥퓚돉놾ꆪ쫕틦럖컶훐쯹럅웺톡퓱뗄쫕폫쿈잰쪱웚쪵볊돖폐폠뛮횮볤샫닮뗄튻룶늻뇤럖쫽,뺭맽췆틦쮮욽뗄뇤솿,샻싊뫍풤웚볛룱뇤뚯쫇솽룶훷튪뗄믺믡돉놾떼뗃돶퓚쪱뿌t뗄뛌웚쪵훊믵뇒탨쟳랽돌:뇤솿;훆뛈탔믲뷡릹탔뇤솿냼삨믹쓡쾵쫽RGꆢ믵뇒뮯뇈싊mt=a0+a1rt+a2yt+(1-ꛈ)mt-1+utRMꆢ쓚풴죚뗄뇈훘RIFꆣ랽돌믘맩뷡맻죧쿂:헢룶랽돌폫쏀솪뒢뗄랽돌튻훂ꆣM2/P=-295141916+11610810(Y/P)+014294763R컒맺톧쫵뷧튲뛔믵뇒탨쟳몯쫽튲뷸탐쇋튻킩첽쳖ꆣ컒맺+115372029RG+152190299RM+113419514RIF톧쫵뷧퓧웚붨솢쒣탍뗄랽램냼삨뺭퇩쫽뻝램ꆢ믹놾릫쪽램ꆢ퓚뇊헟뾴살,헢킩쪵횤럖컶늻쪧캪튻훖첽쯷탨쟳몯쫽뗄캢럖램ꆢ뇈샽램뗈ꆣ퓚뇊헟뾴살,헢킩퓧웚랽램뗄훷튪늻ퟣ폐틦뎢쫔,떫컒맺뗄톧헟퓚쪵횤럖컶훐,평폚쫽뻝뗄쿞훆,쫇쒣탍늻릻뺫좷,폐뗄쒣탍짵훁틔믵뇒쫽솿싛캪믹뒡,퓚쒣튻냣뚼닉폃럇쫐뎡뮯뗄샻싊ퟷ캪믺믡돉놾뇤솿,쎻폐럖컶쫐탍훐쎻폐붫샻싊헢튻펰쿬돖뇒믺믡돉놾뗄뇤솿듺죫,듓뛸떼뎡뮯샻싊ꆣ쿔좻,헢믡쪹룃랽돌뿉탅뛈쿂붵ꆣ럇쫐뎡뮯샻싊훂믵뇒쇷춨쯙뛈뗄늻좷뚨,횻쓜뛔믵뇒탨쟳솿뷸탐듖싔뗄맀(죧듦뿮샻싊)쯤좻쫇쒿잰ퟮ훘튪뗄돖뇒돉놾닎헕횸뇪,떫볆ꆣ쯼늻쓜췪좫랴펳쫐뎡뗄뷰릩쟳쟩뿶,늻쓜좷쟐ꆢ헦쪵뗘랴틗룙퓚1991쓪쳡돶횼퓚춻돶뺭볃믵뇒뮯틲쯘뗄믵뇒탨펳컒맺믵뇒뗄릩탨ힴ뿶ꆣ볙죴믵뇒릩펦솿퓶볓(뗈폚믵뇒탨쟳몯쫽:Md=f(y,ꛋ,ꛐ)쟳솿),뛸헾뢮폖퓝쪱죋캪뗘쳡룟쇋샻싊,뿉쓜믡뗃돶샻싊쪽훐Md캪쪵볊믵뇒폠뛮,y캪맺쏱짺닺ퟜ횵,ꛋ캪믵뇒떯탔캪헽뗄듭컳뷡싛ꆣ돖뇒뗄믺믡돉놾돽쪹폃듦뿮샻싊믲웤뮯횸쫽,ꛐ캪춨믵엲헍풤웚ꆣ틗룙죏캪,얩듥훆뛈뇤룯,쿧쯼헾뢮맜훆뗄횸뇪횮췢,뮹펦뢨횮폚쫐뎡샻싊ퟷ캪돖뇒믺믡헲웳튵ꆢ룶쳥쮽펪웳튵폫ퟔ평쫐뎡랢햹,볆뮮뺭볃쳥훆뗄돉놾뗄닎헕횸뇪ꆣ횮쯹틔폐뗄퇐뺿죋풱뷶쪹폃럇쫐뎡뮯샻싊맬,뚼쪹뺭볃붻뮻뫍횧뢶랽쪽랢짺뇤,듓뛸뛔뺭볃훐뗄믵죔쓜뗃돶뷏룟믘맩쓢뫏뛈,뿉쓜뗄풭틲믲헟쫇헾뢮훆뚩뗄샻뇒폈웤쫇쿖뷰폐뎬뎣뗄탨쟳ꆣ맺볒틲듋믱뗃쇋뻞듳뗄믵뇒랢싊랴펳쇋쫐뎡뗄튪쟳뫍훷튪돖뇒돉놾,믲헟쫇샻싊퓚쒣탍훐탐쫕죫,튲벤샸쇋맺볒뷸튻늽췆뷸뺭볃믵뇒뮯뗄뷸돌ꆣ뗄ퟷ폃늻듳,믲헟쫇샻싊뗄ퟷ폃놻웤쯻뇤솿쯹탞헽ꆣ쟘뛤(1993)뗄믵뇒탨쟳쒣탍뾼싇쇋폫훐맺뺭볃훆뛈폐쫐뎡뮯샻싊뫍럇쫐뎡뮯샻싊퓚탨쟳몯쫽훐뗄룷폐쓄킩ퟷ맘뗄죽랽쏦틲쯘:튻쫇평볆뮮뿘훆퓬돉뗄틖훆탔춶믺탨쟳;폃?뇊헟죏캪,쫐뎡뮯샻싊뫍럇쫐뎡뮯뗄샻싊뚼쫇웳튵뫍룶뛾쫇쫐뎡뮯룄룯틽웰뛔믵뇒뗄뎬뎣탨쟳(쒣탍훐뗄믵뇒뮯틲죋훷쳥돖뇒돉놾뗄튻늿럖ꆣ웳튵뫍룶죋죚뗄랽쪽뿉틔럖캪ꆪ63ꆪ
쫐뎡뮯샻싊죚뫍럇쫐뎡뮯샻싊죚,캪쇋퇐뺿뗄랽뇣,뇊뛮,RG쫇럇쫐뎡뮯샻싊,Q2쫐뎡뮯샻싊죚뷰뛮,RM쫇쫐헟냑돽좥틸탐듻뿮횮췢뗄죚랽쪽쇽춳뗘돆횮캪쫐뎡뮯죚뎡뮯샻싊ꆣ랽쪽,냼삨춬튵닰뷨ꆢ햮좯죚ꆢ쏱볤뷨듻뗈랽쪽ꆣ떱좻,퓚틸탐듻뿮샻싊쏷쿔뗍폚쫐뎡샻싊쪱,춨맽듻뿮죚뗄랽쪽평릫쪽뇤탎뿉뗃:RQ1=QRQ2G+QRM튲늻쓜쫓캪뒿듢뗄럇쫐뎡뮯죚,틲캪컒맺뷰죚믺릹듻뿮샻Q1싊뿉퓚믹뒡샻싊짏쿲짏뢡뚯,헢뿉쫓캪듦퓚튻뚨돌뛈뗄쫐뎡Q쫇럇쫐뎡뮯죚뷰뛮햼ퟜ죚뷰뛮뗄뇈훘Q2,Q쫇쫐뎡샻싊뮯죚햼ퟜ죚뷰뛮뗄뇈훘ꆣ평폚좱랦맘폚죚뇈훘뗄ힼ좷,쇭췢웳튵믲룶죋캪쇋믱좡틸탐듻뿮헢훖쾡좱풴,뎣뎣믡퓶볓뛮췢뗄돉놾,뛮췢돉놾틲쯘훐늻쓜뫶싔쪱볤췏퇓틲쫽뻝,뇊헟룹뻝폐맘듋쫽뻝뗄뺭퇩퇐뺿좷뚨캪Q1:Q=016ꆣ쯘,샭싛짏럖컶뿉틔죏캪뛮췢돉놾뗄쫽뛮폫뛮췢샻틦뗄듳킡춨맽틔짏럖컶,믵뇒탨쟳몯쫽뗄뻖늿뗷헻쒣탍릹퓬죧놣돖튻뚨맘쾵,ퟜ쳥살뾴,웳튵믱좡틸탐듻뿮쯹뢶돶뗄쪵볊돉놾폫쏻틥샻싊늢늻튻훂ꆣ틲듋,럖컶샻싊뇘탫맘힢쫐뎡샻쿂MdMsY:lnP=a0+a1ln+ap2lnP+a3lnR싊ꆣ퓚믵뇒탨쟳몯쫽훐샻싊뿉틔놻죏캪쫇룷훖믺믡돉놾뗄ퟛ웤훐,RQ1Q2=뫏QRG+QRM,릫쪽죧쿂:QR=Q1RG+Q2RM웤훐Q1+Q2=Q쪽훐,Q쫇죚ퟜ뷰뛮,R쫇ퟛ뫏죚돉놾싊,Q1쫇럇쫐뎡뮯죚뷰폐맘럖컶쫽뻝죧쿂뇭1ꋛ:뇭1죕ꆡꆡ웚벾뷚뗷헻웳튵짌욷볛룱믮웚듦틸탐볤춬튵뫳뗄뿮샻싊닰뷨7쳬욽뻹ퟛ뫏m횸쫽(틔1993쓪릤튵퓶2볓횵Y12퓂캪100)PR샻싊RG샻싊RM2001쓪1퓂1395511311219216950199216411652001쓪2퓂14116011112156193401992162116422001쓪3퓂14276716112165223901992157116222001쓪4퓂14428112112163226601992153116062001쓪5퓂14630113112115227901992151115982001쓪6퓂14805214111169239801992145115742001쓪7퓂14940616111152220101992145115742001쓪8퓂1507281611113222330199214411572001쓪9퓂1521791611111323520199214115542001쓪10퓂15242414110179233201992135115342001쓪11퓂1551431211013238901992133115262001쓪12퓂1572351210919263201992138115462002쓪1퓂15869217109148215801992136115382002쓪2퓂1605631410915318800172213113522002쓪3퓂16245617108186245601722124113282002쓪4퓂16462117108184256901722116112962002쓪5퓂1667841710819826170172211211282002쓪6퓂169379ꆡ109101278001722103112442002쓪7퓂17109218108155256801721199112282002쓪8퓂17392411108162263401722101112362002쓪9퓂1771571510818228250172211112722002쓪10퓂17873519108186283001722109112682002쓪11퓂1810751410910529490172211112722002쓪12퓂18342117109132321601722124113282003쓪1퓂18891311110113266201722116112962003쓪2퓂18954016110164254701722113112842003쓪3퓂1934471411017531340172210611256ꆪ64ꆪ
ꆡꆡ쪹폃Eviews311뷸탐믘맩럖컶,뷡맻죧뇭2:(IFS)뗄쫽뻝뛔튻킩퇇훞맺볒뷸탐볬퇩,늿럖뷡맻죧쿂ꋜ:뇭2몫ꆡ맺:ln(M/P)t=-11406-01006Rt+01415ln(y)tLOG+(M22ꇁ100/P)=C(1)+C(2)ꇁLOG(M22(-1)ꇁ100/P)+C(3)ꇁLOG(Yꇁ100/P)+C(4)ꇁLOG(R01669(M/P)t-1R2=0196)십살컷퇇:ln(M/P)t=-11186-01006Rt+01371lnCoefficientStd1Errort-StatisticProb1(y)t+01745(M/P)t-1R2=0199C첩ꆡ맺:ln(M/P)t=-0165-01005Rt+01291ln(y)t+(1)-0102896101312279-01092742019269017(M/P)t-1R2=0199C(2)019963220102884334154333010000쒣탍훐,M캪믵뇒쫽솿M2,P캪볛룱쮮욽,Rt캪떱웚C샻싊,y쫇떱웚쪵볊닺돶ꆣ(3)010114180101273001896981013794쒣탍훐뗄쫽뻝닉폃1985쓪훁1998쓪룷맺뗄벾뛈쫽뻝,C(4)-0100842401023485-01358715017232뿧풽쇋퇇훞뷰죚캣믺헢튻쳘쫢쪱웚,쒣탍죔쓢뫏뗃쿠떱뫃,R2=01997698,뗷헻뗄R2=01997385,DW=21879583ꆣ쮵쏷쒣탍뻟폐쿠떱뗄컈뚨탔ꆣ평폚C뫍Y퓚쒣탍훐ퟷ폃뫜늻쏷쿔,쳞돽C뫍Y횮뫳뗄믘맩쯦ퟅ컒맺믵뇒뮯돌뛈뗄쳡룟,헾뢮뛔뷰죚맜훆뗄쓜솦뫍뷡맻죧뇭3맜훆뗄틢풸붫훰늽복죵,쫐뎡뮯뗄샻싊뗈뺭볃뇤솿붫훰늽쿔:쪾돶ퟔ짭뗄펰쿬솦,컒맺뗄믵뇒탨쟳몯쫽붫풽살풽뷓뷼뢥샯뇭3뗂싼뫍쏀솪솪뒢쳡돶뗄쒣탍ꆣ훰늽붨솢웰살뗄쫐뎡횸뇪쳥LOG쾵,붫캪컒쏇뛔믵뇒탨쟳몯쫽뗄쪵횤럖컶쳡릩룼볓맣랺뗄믹(M22ꇁ100/P)=C(2)ꇁLOG(M22(-1)ꇁ100/P)+C(4)ꇁLOG(R뒡ꆣ)[힢ꆡ쫍]CoefficientStd1Errort-StatisticProb1ꋙ폠ꆡ솦.믵뇒샭뒴탂\[M\].뺭볃맜샭돶냦짧,(2)110014790100028335441114010000ꋚ돂튰뮪.컷랽믵뇒뷰죚톧쮵뗄탂랢햹\[M\].컷쓏닆C(4)-0101466901009378-11564232011309뺭듳톧돶냦짧,2001.ꋛ쫽뻝살뻝:훐맺죋쏱틸탐춳볆벾놨ꆣR2=01997603,뗷헻뗄R2=01997504,DW=21833924ꆣퟜ쳥살뾴쒣탍믘맩킧맻뷏뫃,떫릤튵퓶볓횵퓚쒣탍훐뗄ꋜGuo2boHuang,ퟷ폃뇭쿖뫜늻쏷쿔,뺿웤풭틲,튻쫇평폚놾쒣탍훐뗄쫽뻝캪andDuringtheCurrencyCrisis:ExperienceofFourAsianCoun2퓂뛈춳볆쫽뻝,믵뇒탨쟳뗄뇤뮯췹췹춣쇴퓚뷰죚믺릹쓚늿,1999.,뛔짺닺뗄ퟷ폃쫇볤뷓뗄,쓑틔펰쿬쪵쳥뺭볃,튲쓑틔뷓쫜쪵[닎뾼컄쿗]쳥뺭볃뗄삩즢,벴믵뇒탨쟳솿폫쪵쳥뺭볃뗄쿠맘맘쾵늻듳ꆣ\[1\]췲뷢쟯,탬ꆡ쳎.믵뇒릩룸뗄쓚짺탔폫믵뇒헾닟뗄샠쯆뗄죧싀튫쏷뫍쇖짽(1999)ꆢ췵맢캰킧싊\[J\].뺭볃퇐뺿,2001,(3).(2001)뗄퇐뺿튲볤뷓횤쏷쇋뛌웚믵뇒탨쟳뫍쪵쳥뺭볃늻듦퓚쿠맘맘쾵\[2\]탬ꆡ쳎,엋쮼훐.샭싛폫쪵횤:20쫀볍90쓪듺틔;뛾쫇쒣탍놾짭듦퓚뗄뻖쿞:평폚쫽뻝뗄쿞훆,폃릤튵퓶볓횵듺쳦살컒맺믵뇒탨쟳샭싛퇐뺿뗄랢햹\[J\].뷰죚컊쳢퇐뺿,2003,맺쏱쫕죫,쪹폃믮웚듦뿮샻싊뫍7쳬닰뷨샻싊,샻싊웚쿞늢(1).캴폫쒣탍췪좫컇뫏ꆣ\[3\]췲맢닊,쇵ꆡ샲.훐맺믵뇒탨쟳:샭싛퇐뺿폫쪵횤쒿잰럖컶\[J\].퓆쓏닆쎳톧풺톧놨,2002,(12).,믵뇒탨쟳몯쫽폐쿲컳닮탞헽쒣탍뫍럇뻹뫢쒣탍랢햹뗄쟷쫆,떫컷랽믵뇒탨쟳몯쫽뗄랢햹뇤뮯뗄풭틲횮튻쫇평\[4\]퓀ꆡ틢,맜샱욽.믵뇒탨쟳샭싛뗄탂랢햹벰웤쏦쇙폚뷰죚뒴탂ꆢ듳솿샠쯆믵뇒뷰죚릤뻟뗄돶쿖틔벰뷡쯣쯙뛈볓뗄쳴햽\[J\].훐쓏듳톧톧놨,2003,(10).뿬뗈틲쯘쪹믵뇒탨쟳몯쫽뇤뗃뫜늻컈뚨뛸ퟶ돶뗄뗷헻,뛸듓\[5\]싀튫쏷,쇖ꆡ짽.짌튵틸탐샻싊럧쿕맜샭퇐뺿\[J\].컒맺뗄쪵볊쟩뿶돶랢뺭볃퇐뺿,1999,(5).,늢쎻폐쏷쿔뗄횤뻝뇭쏷컒맺믵뇒탨쟳몯쫽뇤뗃뫜늻컈뚨,틲듋,뻖늿뗷헻쒣탍퓚컒맺뮹폐뫜듳뗄\[6\]췵맢캰.훐맺샻싊쫐뎡뮯믺훆뗄붨솢벰펰쿬\[J\].퇐뺿볛횵,늻뷶죧듋맜샭쫀뷧,2001,(2).,뻖늿뗷헻쒣탍펦폃폚튻킩뾪럅뛈뷏룟뗄맺볒튲좡뗃쇋뇈뷏싺틢뗄킧맻ꆣ쿣룛돇쫐듳톧뗄G\[7\]싞늮쳘ꆤ욽뗒뿋,떤쓡뛻L.슳뇶럑뛻뗂.볆솿뺭볃uoboH쒣탍폫뺭볃풤닢\[M\].믺킵릤튵돶냦짧,뫍YangyangLi닉폃룃쒣탍뫍IMF뗄맺볊뷰죚춳볆[퓰죎뇠벭:짲낮뮪]ꆪ65ꆪ
