뗚27뻭 뗚15웚 뿆?벼?뷸?늽?폫?뛔?닟 Aug. 2010 Science & Technology Progress and Policy 2010쓪8퓂 뿆벼놣쿕훐뗄웳튵탐캪퇐뺿 킻뿆랶ꎬ뫎?럆ꎬ쇵? (커몺샭릤듳톧 맜샭톧풺ꎬ뫾놱 커몺 430070) 햪?튪ꎺ뿆벼놣쿕ퟷ캪웳튵뿆벼럧쿕뗄튻훖짧믡럖첯랽쪽ꎬ웳튵쫇쯼뗄횱뷓닎폫헟뫍쫜틦헟ꆣ뿆벼놣쿕훐뗄웳튵탐캪뛔뿆벼놣쿕쳥쾵뗄컈뚨벰쇷돌뗄퓋탐훁맘훘튪ꎬ틲듋뛔웤뷸탐퇐뺿쪮럖뇘튪ꆣ뛔뒦폚뿆벼놣쿕쇷돌룷뷗뛎뗄웳튵탐캪뷸탐럖컶폫첽쳖ꎬ늢닉폃웚췻킧폃쒣탍ퟅ훘뛔웳튵뿆벼놣쿕춶놣뻶닟탐캪뷸탐퇐뺿ꆣ 맘볼듊ꎺ뿆벼놣쿕ꎻ뿆벼럧쿕ꎻ웳튵탐캪ꎻ춶놣뻶닟 훐춼럖샠뫅ꎺ 틽퇔 뒫뫍췆맣ꎬ웳튵놻뚯뗘듓헢킩췢퓚탅쾢풴뷓쫜튻킩뿆벼놣볓뿬췆뷸뿆벼ퟔ훷뒴탂쫇좫쏦실쪵뿆톧랢햹맛ꆢ릹붨짧쿕탅쾢ꎻ뛾쫇ퟔ훷믱좡탅쾢ꎬ벴웳튵짮룐뿆퇐뒴탂쿮쒿돐믡훷틥뫍킳짧믡뗄뇘좻튪쟳ꆣ컞싛쫇뿆벼뮹쫇놣쿕ꎬ뚼뛔뺭떣뗄뿆벼럧쿕뻞듳ꎬ쓑틔뛀ퟔ돐떣ꎬ믲쫇퓚웤쯼웳튵춨맽볃랢햹ꎬ짧믡뷸늽웰ퟅ뻙ퟣ쟡훘뗄ퟷ폃ꆣ뿆벼놣쿕ퟷ캪뛾헟뿆벼놣쿕믱뗃솼뫃뗄럧쿕놣헏뗄쪾랶ퟷ폃쿂ꎬ훷뚯뗘쿲헾ꏛ1ꏝ뗄뷡뫏ꎬ뛔볓잿ퟔ훷뒴탂쓜솦룼뻟폐훘튪틢틥ꆣ떱잰ꎬ뿆뢮ꆢ놣쿕릫쮾벰놣쿕훐뷩믺릹톯뿆벼놣쿕쟩뿶ꎬ믱좡쿠벼놣쿕쫔뗣뒴탂릤ퟷ헽퓚폐킧췆뷸ꎬ뿆벼놣쿕뗄샭싛퇐뺿튲맘탅쾢ꆣ 붥돉죈뗣ꆣ짛톧쟥ꆢ쇵횾뒺퇐뺿쇋헾뢮훷떼쒣쪽쿂뿆벼놣쿕 좷뚨춶놣틢풸 ꏛ2ꏝ웳튵쇋뷢뿆벼놣쿕탅쾢뫳ꎬ럖컶ퟔ짭뿆퇐쿮쒿훐?탨뗄뿲볜짨볆쳥쾵ꎬ쳡돶쇋쿠맘뗄헾닟붨틩ꎻ쇵퓋폃뷡릹믱뗃뿆벼놣쿕놣헏뗄튪쯘ꎬ죧짨놸ꆢ퓰죎ꆢ죋풱뗈ꎬ에뛏랽돌쒣탍럖컶쇋뿆벼뮷뺳뫍뿆벼놣쿕뛔쟸폲ퟔ훷뒴탂쓜솦ꏛ3ꏝ웤쫇럱럻뫏쿠맘쿕훖뗄춶놣쳵볾ꆣ죧맻늻쓜좷뚨쫇럱럻뫏뗄펰쿬ꎻ헅뮪뛔쓾ꆢ컽ꆢ쯕죽뗘룟탂벼쫵웳튵뿆벼놣쿕탨ꏛ4ꏝ쳵볾ꎬ퓲뿉틔쿲놣쿕릫쮾믲놣쿕훐뷩믺릹뷸탐톯ꆣ뛔폚쟳뷸탐쇋퇐뺿ꆣ듓뿆벼놣쿕쾵춳ퟩ돉살뾴ꎬ웳튵폫놣쿕릫럻뫏춶놣쳵볾뗄튪쯘ퟮ훕쫇럱춶놣ꎬ웳튵뮹탨튪뾼싇튻킩쮾릲춬릹돉쇋뿆벼놣쿕쫐뎡훷쳥ꎻ듓뿆벼놣쿕쇷돌살뾴ꎬ웳웤쯼틲쯘ꎬ죧뿆벼놣쿕폫웤쯼럧쿕럖첯랽쪽뗄뇈뷏ꆢ뿆벼튵닎폫쇋뿆벼놣쿕쇷돌뗄룷룶뷗뛎ꎬ틲듋뛔뿆벼놣쿕훐뗄웳놣쿕럑싊쮮욽ꆢ헾뢮늿쏅뗄닆헾늹쳹쮮욽ꆢ놣쿕릫쮾뗄탅튵탐캪뷸탐퇐뺿뻟폐훘튪뗄샭싛뫍쪵볹틢틥ꆣ떫쒿잰헢랽쏦폾뛈뗈ꎬ좨뫢횮뫳닅쓜좷뚨쫇럱춶놣ꆣ 뗄퇐뺿좴쿠뛔?랦ꎬ폐듽짮죫ꆣ놾컄뛔뿆벼놣쿕쇷돌뗄룷뷗뛎ꎬ벴춶놣잰웚ꆢ춶놣뷗뛎ꆢ샭엢뷗뛎뗄웳튵탐캪뷸탐럖컶첽쳖ꎬ헒돶쇋웤훐듦퓚뗄맘볼컊쳢벰풭틲ꎬ늢쳡돶쇋횸떼탔붨틩ꆣ 1 춶놣잰웚탐캪럖컶 춶놣잰웚쫇웳튵뷓뒥뿆벼놣쿕뗄돵쪼뷗뛎ꎬ웳튵퓚헢튻뷗뛎뗄탐캪뗄돉킧횱뷓뻶뚨ퟅ웳튵뛔뿆벼놣쿕뗄죏횪첬뛈뫍춶놣탋좤ꎻ탐캪쓚죝훷튪쫇믱좡놣쿕탅쾢뫍좷뚨춶놣틢풸ꆣ죧춼1쯹쪾ꆣ 춼1?춶놣잰웚뗄웳튵탐캪 믱좡놣쿕탅쾢 2 뿆벼놣쿕춶놣탐캪럖컶 웳튵퓚뻶뚨춶놣잰ꎬ탨튪돤럖쇋뷢뿆벼놣쿕뗄쿠맘탅쾢ꎬ뛸탅쾢믱좡뗄춾뺶쫇쮫쿲뗄ꎺ튻쫇췢퓚탅쾢듌벤ꎬ벴웳튵좷뚨춶놣틢풸뫳ꎬ쿲놣쿕릫쮾쳡돶춶놣튪쟳ꎬ헽?쫕룥죕웚ꎺ2009–09–08 ()믹뷰쿮쒿ꎺ커몺쫐죭뿆톧퇐뺿볆뮮200840533301-02?()()ퟷ헟볲뷩ꎺ킻뿆랶1963–ꎬ쓐ꎬ뫾쓏틦퇴죋ꎬ커몺샭릤듳톧맜샭톧풺뷌쫚ꆢ늩쪿짺떼쪦ꎬ퇐뺿랽쿲캪럧쿕맜샭ꎻ뫎럆1987–ꎬ쓐ꎬ낲믕()돘훝죋ꎬ커몺샭릤듳톧맜샭톧풺쮶쪿퇐뺿짺ꎬ퇐뺿랽쿲캪럧쿕맜샭ꎻ쇵1978–ꎬ쓐ꎬ뫾놱커몺죋ꎬ커몺샭릤듳톧맜샭톧풺늩쪿퇐뺿짺ꎬ퇐뺿랽쿲캪뿆벼뒴탂맜샭ꆣ
뗚??웚?킻뿆랶ꎬ뫎?럆ꎬ쇵?ꎺ뿆벼놣쿕훐뗄웳튵탐캪퇐뺿?· 97 · 쪽뷸죫춶놣뷗뛎ꆣ춶놣뷗뛎쫇헻룶뿆벼놣쿕쇷돌훐뗄맘볼횵쫇P(x+w-k)+(1-P)(x-k)ꎬ웚췻횵킧폃벴캪12뮷뷚ꎬ맘쾵떽뿆벼놣쿕닎폫랽뗄샻틦맘쾵뗄좷솢ꆣ웳튵퓚U[P(x+w-k)+(1-P)(x-k)]ꆣ 12룃뷗뛎틔잩뚩뿆벼놣쿕뫏춬ꎬ붨솢뿆벼놣쿕맘쾵캪쒿뇪ꎬ웳튵뛔듽럧쿕뗄첬뛈폐3훖샠탍ꎬ벴럧쿕욫뫃ꆢ럧웤탐캪냼삨쇋뷢놣쿕쳵뿮ꆢ쳡붻춶놣쇏뫍놣쿕랽낸첸에3쿕훐탔ꆢ럧쿕맦뇜ꆣ죴쒳튻웳튵죏캪춶놣뗄웚췻킧폃듳폚웚췻횵킧폃ꎬ퓲룃웳튵쫴폚럧쿕욫뫃샠탍ꎻ랴횮ꎬ퓲늿럖ꆣ죧춼2쯹쪾ꆣ 쫴폚럧쿕맦뇜샠탍ꎻ죴죏캪솽헟쿠뗈ꎬ퓲쫴폚럧쿕훐탔(1)쇋뷢놣쿕쳵뿮ꆣ놣쿕릫쮾쫜샭웳튵뗄춶놣튪쟳뫳ꎬ샠탍ꆣ늻춬뗄럧쿕첬뛈뻶뚨쇋웳튵늻춬뗄탐캪톡퓱ꆣ럧믡쿲웤뷩짜뿆벼놣쿕쳵뿮ꆣퟷ캪뿆벼놣쿕뗄닎폫랽ꎬ웳튵쿕맦뇜탍웳튵뿉쓜믡믽벫닎폫뿆벼놣쿕ꎬ뛸럧쿕훐탔뫍튪죏헦퓄뛁뿆벼놣쿕쳵뿮ꎬ쳘뇰쫇놣쿕퓰죎랶캧ꆢ퓰죎쏢럧쿕욫뫃탍웳튵뿉쓜늻믡춶놣ꆣ 돽늿럖뗈훘뗣쓚죝ꎬ틔쏷좷ퟔ짭뫍놣쿕릫쮾룷ퟔ쯹튪돐떣 쒣탍럖컶 뗄퓰죎뫍싄탐뗄틥컱ꆣ죧맻웳튵뛔놣쿕쳵뿮듦퓚틬틩ꎬ뿉튪쟳놣쿕릫쮾ퟷ돶뷢쫍ꎬ횱훁죏뿉놣쿕쳵뿮캪횹ꎻ죴ퟮ훕쿂쏦퓋폃웚췻킧폃쒣탍럖컶웳튵퓚럧쿕ힴ뿶쿂ힷ늻쓜죏뿉놣쿕쳵뿮ꎬ퓲뿉럅웺춶놣ꆣ쟳웚췻킧폃ퟮ듳뮯뗄춶놣뻶닟탐캪ꆣ 틑횪웳튵뗄웚췻킧폃EU=PU(x+w-k)+(1-P)(2)쳡붻춶놣쇏ꆣ웳튵죏뿉뿆벼놣쿕쳵뿮뫳ꎬ탫쿲놣1U(x-k)ꎬ웤훐엢뎥뷰w펦폫놣럑k돉헽뇈맘쾵ꆣ짨쿕릫쮾쳡붻쿠맘뗄춶놣쇏ꆣ평폚춶놣쇏쫇놣쿕릫쮾쇋2w=kꎬt>0ꎬ퓲웚췻킧폃ퟮ듳뮯뗄뇭듯쪽캪ꎺ뷢춶놣뇪헦쪵탅쾢뗄훘튪살풴ꎬ놣쿕릫쮾캪복짙쓦쿲톡퓱ꎬtc,믡ퟐ쾸짳닩춶놣쇏ꎬ움맀춶놣럧쿕ꆣ죴늻럻뫏뿆벼놣쿕Max(EU)=PU(x+k-k)+(1-P)U(x-k)1t2 돐놣샭쓮ꎬ놣쿕릫쮾믡뻜뻸돐놣ꆣ틲듋웳튵펦떱ퟱ쫘돏쪵맘폚뇤솿k뗄ퟮ듳뮯튻뷗뇘튪쳵볾랽돌캪ꎺ춶놣뗄풭퓲ꎬ쳡릩쿪뺡헦쪵뗄춶놣쇏ꆣ EU¢¢¶¶k=PU(x+kt-k)(t-1)-(1-P)U(x-k)=012 U¢(3)놣쿕랽낸첸에ꆣ죧맻웳튵뗄춶놣쇏췪놸ꎬ늢쟒춶(x+kt-k)1-P1평듋뿉뗃ꎺ= U¢(x-k)P(t-1)놣럧쿕럻뫏뿆벼놣쿕돐놣샭쓮ꎬ놣쿕릫쮾퓲훆ퟷ뿆벼놣쿕2쇭튻랽쏦ꎬ놣쿕릫쮾퓚쫂랢ힴ첬쿂뗄쫕틦캪k-ktꎬ랽낸늢쳡붻웳튵ꆣ쯦뫳ꎬ놣쿕릫쮾폫웳튵뻍놣쿕랽낸뷸탐캴쫂랢ힴ첬쿂쫕틦캪kꎬ퓲놣쿕릫쮾뗄웚췻쫕틦캪첸에ꆣ죴듦퓚럖웧ꎬ뿉틔퓚쮫랽춬틢뗄잰쳡쿂ꎬ평쮫랽릲P(k-k)+(1-P)kꆣ볙뚨뿆벼놣쿕쫐뎡뻹뫢ꎬ쓇쎴놣쿕춬탞룄놣쿕랽낸ꎬ횱훁듯돉튻훂ꆣ놣쿕릫쮾돶뻟놣쿕떥ꎬt릫쮾뎤웚웚췻쫕틦P(k-k)+(1-P)k=0ꆣ뿉뗃t=1Pꎬ뇪횾ퟅ뿆벼놣쿕맘쾵뗄헽쪽붨솢ꆣ tU¢(x+kP-k)1-P1붫웤듺죫뇘튪쳵볾랽돌==1ꎬU¢(x-k)P(1P-1)2벴떱U¢¢(x+kP-k)=U(x-k)쪱ꎬ웚췻킧폃듯떽ퟮ듳뮯ꆣ12 춼2?뿆벼놣쿕춶놣훐뗄웳튵탐캪 춨맽쒣탍럖컶뿉틔뗃돶튻룶뷡싛ꎬ벴떱웳튵뗄뿆벼놣쿕놣럑쪹웤퓚쫂랢뫳뗄뇟볊킧폃뗈폚쫂랢잰뗄뇟볊킧폃3 뿆벼놣쿕춶놣뗄웚췻킧폃쒣탍 쪱ꎬ닅쓜쪵쿖춶놣웚췻킧폃ퟮ듳뮯ꆣ 럫·얦싼뫍쒦룹쮹첹웚췻킧폃쒣탍쫇퓚릫샭뮯볙짨뗄믹뒡짏ꎬ퓋폃싟벭뫍쫽톧릤뻟ꎬ붨솢뗄퓚늻좷뚨쳵볾쿂뛔샭4 뿆벼놣쿕샭엢탐캪럖컶 탔죋톡퓱뷸탐럖컶뗄샭싛랽램ꆣ웳튵춶놣뿆벼놣쿕뗄쒿뗄쫇뷨훺놣쿕릫쮾캪퇐랢뒴탂믮뚯럖첯럧쿕ꎬ쪵쿖ퟔ짭킧폃뿆벼놣쿕맘쾵붨솢뫳ꎬ퓚놣쿕웚쓚튻떩쫂맊랢짺ꎬ쓇뗄ퟮ듳뮯ꎬ쯹틔뿉붫룃쒣탍퓋폃폚웳튵춶놣뿆벼놣쿕뗄뻶쎴웳튵뻍뿉쿲놣쿕릫쮾쳡돶샭엢튪쟳ꎬ듓뛸뷸죫샭엢뷗뛎ꆣ닟탐캪퇐뺿훐ꆣ 샭엢뷗뛎쫇웳튵뒦샭놣쿕쫂맊ꆢ믱좡럧쿕늹뎥뗄훘튪뮷뷚ꎬ 샭싛룅쓮 늢횱뷓맘쾵떽웳튵뛔웤놣헏킧맻뗄룐횪뫍움볛ꆣ헢튻뷗뛎웚췻킧폃쒣탍짦벰떽웚췻킧폃뫍웚췻횵킧폃솽룶뎣볻뗄웳튵탐캪냼삨ꎺ춨놨놣쿕쫂맊ꆢ킭훺뗷닩쫂맊ꆢ쳡릩쯷룅쓮ꆣ웚췻킧폃쫇횸ꎬ죧맻쒳룶쯦믺뇤솿X틔룅싊P좡횵엢컄볾뫍짌뚨샭엢뷰뛮ꆣ죧춼3쯹쪾ꆣ iX(1)춨놨놣쿕쫂맊ꆣ퓚놣쿕쫂맊랢짺뫳ꎬ웳튵펦벰쪱쿲i=1,2,L,nꎬ뛸퓚X쪱뗃떽뗄킧폃캪U(X)ꎬ웤웚췻킧ic,iiꏛ5ꏝ놣쿕릫쮾춨놨ꆣ춨놨랽쪽냼삨횱뷓쿲놣쿕릫쮾춨놨믲평놣폃쫇ꎺ EU=PU(X)+PU(X)+L+PU(X)ꆣ 1122nn쿕훐뷩믺릹듺캪춨놨ꆣ춬쪱ꎬ웳튵뮹튪뛔쫂맊쿖뎡엄헕늢웳튵춶놣뿆벼놣쿕뫳쏦쇙솽훖뿉쓜뗄ힴ첬ꎬ벴쫂랢뺡솿놣쇴쫂맊쿖뎡ꎬ틔ퟷ캪쯷엢뗄틀뻝ꆣ쇭췢ꎬ죧맻쫂맊믱엢믲캴쫂랢늻믱엢ꆣ볙뚨쫂랢룅싊캪P0<P<1,웳튵c,쫇평뗚죽랽틽웰뗄ꎬ듦퓚쿲쫂맊퓰죎랽뗄ힷ뎥좨ꎬ웳튵퓲퓚솽훖ힴ첬쿂뗄쫕죫럖뇰캪x,xꎬ쓇쎴웳튵뗄웚췻킧12탫붫웤죃룸놣쿕릫쮾ꎬ늢킭훺ힷ뎥ꆣ 폃EU=PU(x+w-k)+(1-P)U(x-k)ꎬ웤훐k캪놣럑ꎬ12(2)킭훺뗷닩쫂맊ꆣ놣쿕릫쮾뷓떽쫂맊춨놨뫳ꎬ믡엉돶w캪엢뎥뷰ꆣ평듋뿉볻ꎬ웳튵춶놣뿆벼놣쿕뗄웚췻킧폃샭엢죋풱뗷닩놣쿕쫂맊ꆣ뗷닩쓚죝냼삨쫂맊풭틲ꆢ뺭맽벰쫇웳튵퓚솽훖ힴ첬쿂뗃떽늻춬뷡맻뗄킧폃뗄볓좨욽뻹쯰쪧쟩뿶ꆣ웳튵펦킭훺샭엢죋풱뗄릤ퟷꎬ늻뗃틾싷웛욭ꆣ횵ꎻ뛸웳튵춶놣뗄웚췻횵ꎬ쫇횸웳튵퓚솽훖ힴ첬쿂쯹펵폐뗄쫕틦뷰뛮뗄볓좨욽뻹횵ꆣ웳튵춶놣뿆벼놣쿕뗄웚췻죴쫂맊풭틲럻뫏놣쿕랽낸뗄맦뚨ꎬ놣쿕릫쮾닅믡뷓쫜웳튵
뿆벼뷸늽폫뛔닟 2010쓪?· 98 · 뗄쯷엢ꎻ랴횮ꎬ퓲늻폨엢뎥ꆣ 뷰뛮ꎬ틔쪵쿖ퟔ짭춶놣킧폃ퟮ듳뮯ꆣ (3)쳡릩쯷엢컄볾ꆣ웳튵쿲놣쿕릫쮾쳡돶쯷엢쪱ꎬ뮹펦떫뿆벼놣쿕쫇ퟷ캪웳튵뿆벼럧쿕뗄튻훖짧믡럖첯랽쪽쿲놣쿕릫쮾쳡릩뇘튪뗄쯷엢컄볾ꎬ냼삨떥횤ꆢ떥뻝벰쿠맘뛸쳡돶뗄ꎬ늻춬폚튻냣뗄뒿듢탔럧쿕ꎬ쯼쫇웳튵퓚ힷ쟳뿆닄쇏ꆣ늻춬쿕훖뗄쯷엢컄볾늻춬ꆣ닎헕뿆벼놣쿕쳵뿮뗄맦퇐뒴탂믮뚯뗄돉릦틔믱좡샻틦뗄맽돌훐쯹돐떣뗄튻훖춶믺뚨ꎬ웳튵탫붫쯷엢컄볾쫕벯췪헻뫳쳡붻놣쿕릫쮾짳뫋ꆣ 탔럧쿕ꆣ틲듋ꎬ뿆벼놣쿕뗄릦쓜늻뷶쿞폚쏖늹럧쿕쯰쪧ꎬ(4)짌뚨샭엢뷰뛮ꆣ샭엢뷰뛮뗄뇪ힼ퓚웳튵폫놣쿕릫쮾룼퓚폚횧독뿆퇐뒴탂ꆣ헽틲죧듋ꎬ웳튵펦떱붫뿆벼놣쿕쫓잩뚩뗄뿆벼놣쿕랽낸훐틑폐맦뚨ꎬ쮫랽펦내맦뚨뗄뇪ힼ벰캪퓚헾뢮틽떼쿂ꎬ퓋폃쫐뎡믺훆뫍뷰죚릤뻟럾컱폚ퟔ짭뗄쪵볊쯰쪧뛮ꎬ릲춬짌뚨샭엢뷰뛮ꆣ놣쿕릫쮾믡뛔웳튵쳡붻튻훖뒴탂쒣쪽ꎬ틔뿆퇐쿮쒿캪훐탄ꎬ듓룼맣뗄뷇뛈뫍룼짮뗄쯷엢컄볾뷸탐ퟐ쾸짳뫋ꎬ틔좷죏놣쿕퓰죎벰엢뢶뷰뛮ꆣ뗄닣듎닎폫뿆벼놣쿕ꎬ쪹놣쿕릫쮾튲춨맽뿆벼놣쿕뗄탎쪽ퟮ뫳ꎬ놣쿕릫쮾횴탐엢뢶늢뷡낸ꆣ 닎폫떽웳튵뗄뿆퇐쿮쒿훐좥ꎬ쪵탐럧쿕릲떣ꆢ쫕틦릲쿭ꎬ쿲닎폫탍뿆벼놣쿕쒣쪽맽뛉ꆣ퓚헢훖뿆벼놣쿕쒣쪽쿂ꎬ웳튵폫놣쿕릫쮾횮볤듓뒫춳뗄놣쿕튵컱맘쾵뇤캪탂탍뗄뫏ퟷ뒴탂맘쾵ꎬ짧믡놾뫍뿆퇐뒴탂솪뷡룼볓뷴쏜ꎻ웳튵듓 춼3?뿆벼놣쿕샭엢훐뗄웳튵탐캪 훐믱뗃룼듳뗄뿆벼럧쿕놣헏ꎬ듓뛸쳡룟웤뿆퇐뒴탂뗄믽벫탔뫍돉릦싊ꆣ 5 컊쳢폫붨틩 닎뾼컄쿗ꎺ 춨맽뛔뿆벼놣쿕훐뗄웳튵탐캪뗄럖컶ꎬ늻쓑랢쿖뿆벼놣쿕ퟷ캪튻훖탂짺뗄놣쿕샠탍ꎬ웤샭싛폫쪵컱짐캴돉쫬ꎬꏛ1ꏝ?쇵퇠뮪.볓뿬뿆벼놣쿕튵랢햹뗄늽랥ꏛJꏝ.훐맺뿆벼춶ꎬ퓋탐쒣쪽훷튪쫇뒫춳뗄춶놣—샭엢쒣쪽ꆣ웳튵퓚뿆벼놣쿕2007(1)ꎺ6–7. 훐뗄탐캪폫웤쯼샠탍뗄놣쿕쿠뇈ꎬ튲쎻폐쪲쎴쟸뇰ꎬ짐캴ꏛ2ꏝ?짛톧쟥,쇵횾뒺.헾닟탔뿆벼놣쿕뗄뿲볜짨볆ꏛJꏝ.훐맺뿆벼춶쳥쿖돶뿆벼놣쿕뛔웳튵뗄쳘쫢볛횵ꆣ퓬돉헢훖쟩뿶뗄풭틲ꎬ2007(11)ꎺ49–52. 폐틔쿂3뗣ꎺ쫗쿈ꎬ뿆벼놣쿕쫇컒맺쳘폐뗄놣쿕샠탍ꎬ쎻ꏛ3ꏝ?쇵ꎬ킻뿆랶.뿆벼뮷뺳폫뿆벼놣쿕뛔쟸폲ퟔ훷뒴탂쓜솦뗄펰폐돉쫬뗄맺췢뺭퇩뿉릩닎뾼ꎬ웤랢햹뮹뒦폚웰늽뷗뛎ꎬ쳥쿬——믹폚뷡릹랽돌쒣탍뗄쪵횤럖컶ꏛJꏝ. 훐맺뿆벼싛첳ꎬ쾵릹붨짐늻췪짆ꎻ웤듎ꎬ뿆벼놣쿕훐뗄튻킩쿕훖살ퟔ폚뎣2009(3)ꎺ43–46. 맦놣쿕ꎬ죧돶뿚탅폃놣쿕ꆢ룟탂벼쫵웳튵닆닺놣쿕뗈ꎬ웤ꏛ4ꏝ?헅뮪.쓾ꆢ컽ꆢ쯕죽뗘룟탂벼쫵웳튵뿆벼놣쿕탨쟳퇐뺿ꏛJꏝ.퓋펪랽쪽쓑쏢믡퇘폃뻉폐뗄맛쓮뫍ퟶ램ꎻퟮ뫳튲쫇ퟮ캪맘훐맺뿆벼싛첳ꎬ2008(10)ꎺ83–87. 볼뗄튻뗣ꎬ웳튵쒿잰뛔뿆벼놣쿕뗄죏쪶듦퓚욫닮ꎬ늻릻짮ꏛ5ꏝ?럫·억틀싼ꎬ쒦룹쮹쳘.늩?싛폫뺭볃탐캪ꏛMꏝ.췵컄폱ꎬ췵폮ꎬ죫ꎬ췹췹붫뿆벼놣쿕욬쏦뗘샭뷢돉캪뛔웳튵뗄룷쿮뿆퇐튪틫.짏몣ꎺ짺믮.뛁쫩.탂횪죽솪쫩뗪ꎬ2004. 쯘ꎬ죧퇐랢퓰죎ꆢ퇐랢짨놸ꆢ퇐랢죋풱뗈쳡릩럧쿕놣헏뗄(퓰죎뇠벭ꎺ헔?럥) 놣쿕샠뇰ꎬ퓚춶놣쪱맘탄뗄쫇뿆벼놣쿕뗄럑싊쮮욽뫍엢뎥Study on Enterprise Behavior in the Scientific and Technological Insurance Xie Kefan, He Fei, Liu Hua?(School of Management, Wuhan University of Technology, Wuhan 430070, China) Abstractꎺ Scientific and technological insurance is a social sharing approach of scientific and technological risk, and enterprises are the direct participants and beneficiaries in the insurance. Enterprise behavior in the scientific and technological insurance is critical to the stability of insurance system and stir of insurance process, so the study is very necessary. This paper analyses and discusses the enterprise behavior of all stages in scientific and technological insurance process, and focuses on scientific and technological insurance decision-making study by use of expected utility model. Key WordsꎺScientific and Technological Insurance; Scientific and Technological Risk; Enterprise Behavior; Expected Utility Model
