뗚5뻭뗚2웚맣훝듳톧톧놨(짧믡뿆톧냦)쓪2퓂JournalofGuangzhouUniversity(SocialScienceEdition)컒맺쪵탐춨믵엲헍쒿뇪램뗄뿉탐탔럖컶퇮ꆡ쇖(맣훝듳톧뺭볃폫맜샭톧풺,맣뚫ꆡ맣훝ꆡ510006)ꆡꆡ햪ꆡ튪:컒맺쿖탐뗄틔믵뇒릩펦솿캪훐뷩쒿뇪뗄믵뇒헾닟뿲볜퓚뿉뿘탔ꆢ뿉닢탔뫍쿠맘탔뗈랽쏦뻹돶쿖쇋쏷쿔뗄컊쳢,샭싛뷧폐죋컄쳡뎫컒맺펦쪵탐컷랽튻킩맺볒쒿잰닙ퟷ뗃뷏뫃뗄춨믵엲헍쒿뇪램뗄믵뇒헾닟뿲볜ꆣ뛸쒿잰컒맺퇫탐뗄탅폾뛈뫍믵뇒헾닟뗄춸쏷뛈뻹늻룟,믵뇒헾닟듦퓚뛠쒿뇪풼쫸컊쳢,믵뇒쫐뎡뫍볤뷓뫪맛뗷뿘쳥쾵늻랢듯,틔벰퓚춨믵엲헍풤닢랽쏦듦퓚벼쫵쓑쳢뗈,쪹뗃춨믵엲헍쒿뇪램퓚컒맺쒿잰늻뻟놸쪵쪩뗄뿉탐탔,떫뿉틔붫춨믵엲헍싊ퟷ캪닢뿘쒿뇪ꆣꆡꆡ맘볼듊:춨믵엲헍쒿뇪램;믵뇒헾닟뿲볜;뿉탐탔럖컶ꆡꆡ훐춼럖샠뫅:ꆡꆡꆡ컄쿗뇪쪶싫:Aꆡꆡꆡ컄헂뇠뫅:1671-394X(2006)02-0041-03틢풸돖폐뗄뎬뛮ힼ놸뷰싊뫍릫훚틢풸돖폐뗄춨믵뇈튻ꆢ쿖탐뗄믵뇒헾닟뿲볜폫싊;웤듎,평폚컯볛쮮욽뗄헇뗸뇤뮯믡펰쿬돖폐믵뇒춨믵엲헍쒿뇪램뗄믺믡돉놾,퓚춨믵엲헍웚돖폐믵뇒뗄믺믡돉놾뷏룟,믵뇒쇷춨쯙뛈돊쿖볓뿬뗄쟷쫆,랴횮믵뇒쇷춨쯙ꆡꆡ내헕톡퓱뗄훐뷩쒿뇪늻춬,룷맺뗄믵뇒헾닟뿲뛈퓲믡붵뗍,듓뛸떼훂쏦뛔쿠춬뗄믵뇒릩펦솿쮮욽볜듳훂뿉틔럖캪컥룶믹놾샠탍:믣싊쒿뇪램ꆢ믵뇒릩퓚늻춬뗄뺭볃뺰웸뷗뛎믡닺짺늻춬뗄쏻틥탨쟳ꆣ폚펦솿쒿뇪램ꆢ샻싊쒿뇪램ꆢ춨믵엲헍쒿뇪램뫍틾몬훐쫇샭싛뷧뻍폐늻짙죋붨틩컒맺쒿잰펦떱쪵탐춨믵엲뷩쒿뇪램ꆣ뛸컒맺쿖탐뗄믵뇒헾닟뿲볜뻍쫇믵뇒릩헍쒿뇪램뗄믵뇒헾닟(죧Mishkin1999,훜뾥2000,펦솿쒿뇪램,쯼쪼폚1996쓪ꆣ뫢솿쒳튻횸뇪쫇럱쫊탬쳎2001뗈)ꆣ틋ퟷ캪믵뇒헾닟뗄훐뷩쒿뇪,훷튪듓뿉뿘탔ꆢ뿉닢탔춨믵엲헍쒿뇪램(InflationTargeting)쫇탂맅뗤뫍폫맺쏱뺭볃뗄쿠맘탔뷇뛈살뾼싇ꆣ뒫춳뗄믵뇒샭ퟛ뫏톧엉샭싛쳡돶뗄믵뇒헾닟맦퓲,틔헦쪵짌튵훜싛뇭쏷믵뇒릩펦솿횸뇪뗄뿉뿘탔ꆢ뿉닢탔폫쿠맘탔웚ꆢ샭탔풤웚ꆢ뚯첬볛룱뗷헻뗈캪샭싛믹뒡,튲쫇20쿠뛔살쮵쫇뷏뫃뗄,떫뷼벸쓪뗄쪵볹뇭쏷,쯦ퟅ뷰죚쫀볍90쓪듺탋웰뗄튻훖탂뗄믵뇒헾닟뿲볜,ퟔ뒴탂뗄랢햹뫍믵뇒쇷춨쯙뛈뗄뇤뮯,죽헟뻹믡늻춬1990쓪탂컷삼싊쿈닉폃룃ퟶ램틔살,떽쒿잰캪횹,돌뛈뗘쫜떽펰쿬,ퟮ훕떼훂믵뇒릩펦솿늻퓙쫊틋볌틑쿈뫳폐볓쓃듳ꆢ펢맺ꆢ컷냠퇀ꆢ첩맺뗈뷼20룶맺볒탸ퟷ캪믵뇒헾닟뗄훐뷩쒿뇪[1]ꆣ닉폃쇋룃ퟶ램,늢쟒뚼좡뗃쇋뷏뫃뗄킧맻ꆣ춨믵엲뷼쓪살,컒맺믵뇒릩펦솿쒿뇪램퓚횸뇪뿉뿘탔ꆢ헍쒿뇪램뗄믹놾몬틥쫇횸믵뇒떱뻖풤닢춨믵엲헍뗄뿉닢탔뫍폫ퟮ훕쒿뇪뗄쿠맘탔짏뻹틑돶쿖쏷쿔컊캴살ퟟ쿲,늢붫듋풤닢폫틑뺭좷뚨늢쏷좷릫늼뗄춨쳢,폫떱돵뗄풤웚쿠좥짵풶ꆣ뺿웤풭틲폐뛾:쫗쿈,믵엲헍쒿뇪쟸(믲쒿뇪)쿠뇈뷏,룹뻝헢솽헟횮볤뗄믵뇒떱뻖쯹쓜뿘훆뗄돤웤솿횻쫇믹뒡믵뇒,뛸뻶뚨닮뻠살뻶뚨믵뇒헾닟릤뻟뗄뗷헻뫍닙ퟷ,ퟛ뫏퓋폃ퟅ믹뒡믵뇒떽믵뇒릩펦솿횮볤뗄룜룋ꆪꆪꆪ믵뇒돋룷훖헾닟쫖뛎쪹춨믵엲헍싊컈뚨퓚풤쿈짨뚨뗄쟸볤쫽,늢늻쫇믵뇒떱뻖쯹쓜뿘훆뗄,쯼좡뻶폚짌튵틸탐쓚ꆣ죧맻춨믵엲헍풤닢뷡맻룟폚쒿뇪믲쒿뇪쟸짏ꆡꆡꆡ쫕룥죕웚:2005-09-18ꆡꆡퟷ헟볲뷩:퇮쇖(1978-),쓐,낲믕충돇죋,맣훝듳톧뷌쪦,듓쫂뷰죚랽쏦뗄뷌톧폫퇐뺿ꆣ
ꆤ42ꆤ맣훝듳톧톧놨(짧믡뿆톧냦)2006쓪뗚5뻭ꆡ쿞,닉좡뷴쯵탔믵뇒헾닟뗷헻;죧맻춨믵엲헍풤닢뷡(뛾)컒맺퇫탐믵뇒헾닟뗄춸쏷뛈뫍탅폾뛈늻룟맻뗍폚쒿뇪믲쒿뇪쟸쿂쿞,닉좡삩헅탔믵뇒헾닟뗷춨믵엲헍쒿뇪램뗄돉릦쪵쪩좡뻶폚훐퇫틸탐뗄헻;죧맻춨믵엲헍풤닢뷡맻퓚쒿뇪쟸랶캧쓚믲럇뎣춸쏷뛈폫탅폾뛈,뛸컒맺믵뇒헾닟뗄춸쏷뛈폫탅폾뷓뷼쒿뇪,믵뇒헾닟쟣쿲퓲뿉놣돖늻뇤[2]ꆣ뿉볻,퓚뛈늢늻쫇첫뫃,헢좡뻶폚훐퇫틸탐뗄뛀솢탔폫뿘훆룃믵뇒헾닟뿲볜쿂,믵뇒헾닟훐뷩쒿뇪쪵훊짏쫇춨솦뛈ꆣ튻룶돉릦뗄믵뇒헾닟튪뻟놸솽룶쳘헷:튻쫇믵엲헍풤닢ꆣ뻟폐쿈랢훆죋뗄쳘헷;뛾쫇볈튪맘힢춨믵엲헍,튲튪럀횹춨믵뷴쯵ꆣ틲듋,퓚춨믵엲헍쒿뇪램쿂,훐퇫틸뛾ꆢ쪵탐춨믵엲헍쒿뇪램뗄뿉탐탔럖컶탐뇘탫좷놣춨믵엲헍퓚풤뚨뗄춨믵엲헍쒿뇪쟸볤횮쓚,헢틢캶ퟅ훐퇫틸탐뇘탫폐뿘훆춨믵엲헍틔좷놣춨믵엲헍쒿뇪램짏쫶폅쫆뗄랢믓,뇘탫뻟놸튻춨믵엲헍싊뗍폚쒿뇪쟸짏쿞뫍럀횹춨믵뷴쯵,틔좷뚨뗄뺭볃뷰죚쳵볾,냼삨램싉뮷뺳뫍쫐뎡뮷뺳ꆣ놣춨믵엲헍싊룟폚쒿뇪쟸쿂쿞뗄ퟣ릻쓜솦ꆣ듓컒맺(1)훐퇫틸탐펦룃뻟폐쿠떱듳뗄뛀솢탔,벴뇣훐퇫쪵볊쟩뿶뾴,훐퇫틸탐퓚뛴훆춨믵엲헍랽쏦쫇뷏캪틸탐늻튻뚨펵폐췪좫뗄램싉짏뗄뛀솢탔,믵뇒떱뻖돉릦뗄,떫퓚뛴훆춨믵뷴쯵랽쏦뗄쓜솦좴쏷쿔늻ퟣꆣ웰싫튪펵폐캪쪵쿖쒳훖쏻틥쒿뇪뛸뿉틔ퟔ평뗷헻믵벴쪹컒쏇좷탅훐퇫틸탐폐쓜솦좷놣춨믵엲헍싊뗍폚뇒헾닟릤뻟뗄ퟔ평,듓뛸쏢쫜헾뢮욫뫃뫍쿲닆헾풤쒿뇪쟸짏쿞,훐퇫틸탐쪹춨믵엲헍싊룟폚쒿뇪쟸쿂쯣쳡릩뷰뗄톹솦ꆣ(2)뛌웚믵뇒쫐뎡폫볤뷓뫪맛쿞뗄쓜솦튲폐뿉쓜늻ퟣꆣ뛸튻떩훐퇫틸탐늻쓜좷놣뗷뿘믵뇒헾닟릤뻟뗄랢햹,돤럖퓋폃샻싊ퟷ폃폚볛춨믵엲헍싊실퓚풤쿈짨뚨뗄쒿뇪쟸볤,훐퇫틸탐뗄룱뒫떼믺훆뗄쓜솦ꆣ(3)믵뇒헾닟뻟폐춸쏷뛈ꆢ솬탅폾붫쏦쇙벫듳뗄쯰쪧,웤뫳맻쫇쪮럖퇏훘뗄ꆣ헢탸탔뫍뷏룟뗄탅폾뛈틔벰훐퇫틸탐뛔춨믵엲헍쒿뇪쪵볊짏튲쫇죕놾틸탐볡뻶랴뛔붫ꆰ춨믵엲헍쒿뇪뷏잿뗄풤닢쓜솦뗈ꆣ횻폐뻟놸헢킩뺭볃뷰죚쳵볾,쟸ꆱퟷ캪헾닟쒿뇪뗄튻룶훘튪풭틲ꆣ춨믵엲헍쒿뇪램닅쓜폐킧뗘퓋ퟷ,좡뗃샭쿫뗄킧맻ꆣ(죽)춨믵엲헍쒿뇪램쿂퓋폃뛠훖릤뻟뗄폅쫆(튻)컒맺믵뇒헾닟뗄뛠쒿뇪풼쫸퓚컒맺늻듦퓚춨믵엲헍쒿뇪램쏷좷틔컯볛컈뚨캪쫗튪쒿뇪,춨믵엲헍쒿뇪램폫믵뇒릩펦솿퓶뎤싊탍믵뇒헾튲뻍쫇붫맺쓚뺭볃뻹뫢럅퓚쫗캻ꆣ랴맛컒맺ퟔ닟뗄ퟮ듳쟸뇰뻍퓚폚쯼늻퓙틀삵폚컈뚨뗄믵뇒쇷춨1998쓪틔살뗄믵뇒헾닟,쫂쪵짏컒맺뗄믵뇒헾닟쒿쯙뛈틔벰믵뇒릩펦솿폫ퟮ훕쒿뇪뗄잿쿠맘탔,뛸쫇뇪쫇틔죋쏱뇒믣싊컈뚨캪쫗튪쒿뇪,퓚헢튻쒿뇪뗄ퟛ뫏맛달뛠훖횸뇪퓋폃뛠훖믵뇒헾닟릤뻟ꆣ떫쫇퓚풼쫸쿂,닉폃붵뗍샻싊,퓶볓탅듻춶럅헾닟듫쪩틔삩컒맺,믵뇒쫐뎡뫍볤뷓뫪맛뗷뿘쳥쾵늻랢듯,훐퇫틸듳믵뇒릩펦솿,듓뛸듌벤뺭볃,뷢뻶폐킧탨쟳늻ퟣ컊탐뿉틔폐킧퓋폃뗄쫖뛎늢늻뛠,샽죧퓚춨믵엲헍쒿쳢ꆣ듓뇭쏦짏뾴,헢쫇튻룶믵뇒헾닟쒿뇪컊쳢,떫퓚뇪램훐햼폐훘튪뗘캻뗄샻싊쫖뛎퓚컒맺뻍벸뫵쎻폐쇭튻랽쏦좴랴펳쇋훐퇫틸탐뗄뛀솢탔컊쳢ꆣ듓컒맺쪲쎴ퟷ폃ꆣ벴쪹퓚쒿잰쪵탐춨믵엲헍쒿뇪램,훐퇫뗄쪵볊쟩뿶뾴,췪돉평만뚨믣싊훆쿲뢡뚯믣싊훆뗄틸탐뿉틔폐킧퓋폃뗄헾닟쫖뛎죔좻횻폐믵뇒릩펦뇤짐탨쪱죕ꆣ만뚨믣싊훆폫춨믵엲헍쒿뇪램뗄쎬솿,춨믵엲헍쒿뇪램쿂퓋폃뛠훖릤뻟뗄폅쫆퓚컒맺뛜뻶뚨쇋퓚믣싊훆뛈뗷헻횮잰,춨믵엲헍쒿뇪램늻늢늻듦퓚,헢틢캶ퟅ벴쪹쪵탐춨믵엲헍쒿뇪램,믵뇒뻟놸퓚컒맺쪵탐뗄쳵볾ꆣ춬쪱믣싊뗄컈뚨뛔컒맺뺭헾닟킧맻튲늻뿉쓜폐뛠짙쳡룟ꆣ볃뗄컈뚨랢햹컞틉쫇뇘튪뗄,튻떩컒맺쪵탐춨믵엲(쯄)춨믵엲헍쒿뇪램쓚퓚뗘좱랦춸쏷뛈헍쒿뇪램,퇫탐믡쫕쯵믵뇒릩룸,캪뇜쏢믣싊짽횵,내헕춨믵엲헍쒿뇪램,퇫탐틔웤뛔춨믵엲헍뗄붫늻뗃늻엗돶췢믣,뷡맻쪹뗃컒맺뗄뒢놸닺복짙,풤닢ퟷ캪믵뇒헾닟훐뷩쒿뇪,좻뫳ퟛ뫏퓋폃룷훖믵룉풤쓜솦쿂붵,췢믣쫐뎡쏦쇙맺볊폎뗄춶탔돥뇒헾닟릤뻟,쪹춨믵엲헍싊컈뚨퓚풤쿈짨뚨뗄쒿뇪믷뗄뿉쓜탔퓶듳ꆣ듋췢,벴뇣뿉틔훃믣싊늨뚯폚늻쟸쓚ꆣ떱풤닢횵뿉쓜뎬맽횸뇪횵쪱퓲뷴쯵틸룹,늻맋,떫훐퇫틸탐캪틖훆춨믵엲헍뛸쳡룟샻싊쪱,믡쪹벰횸뇪횵쪱퓲럅쯉틸룹ꆣ좻뛸믵뇒헾닟듫쪩뗄쪵쪩놾쇷죫ꆢ믣싊짽횵ꆢ돶뿚복짙ꆣ듋쪱,벴쪹퇫탐춨킧맻폐튻룶뷏뎤뗄쪱훍,튻냣캪18룶퓂떽솽쓪,짵믵엲헍쒿뇪쓜릻쪵쿖,튲뇘좻튪틔닺돶뗄쯰쪧캪듺훁룼뎤킩ꆣ틲듋,춨믵엲헍쒿뇪램쓚퓚뗘뻟폐잰햰볛ꆣ헢쿔좻폫컒맺뗄뺭볃퓶뎤쒿뇪쿠뗖뒥ꆣ탔,헢훖잰햰탔쫇믹폚퇫탐뛔훮뛠뺭볃뇤솿뗄ퟛ뫏
ꆡ뗚2웚퇮ꆡ쇖:컒맺쪵탐춨믵엲헍쒿뇪램뗄뿉탐탔럖컶ꆤ43ꆤ럖컶,틲뛸늻틗캪뷰죚쫐뎡ꆢ짧믡듳훚쯹샭뷢,쪹뗃믵엲헍쒿뇪램쫇튻룶뷏뫃뗄믵뇒헾닟뿲볜,떫횵뗃춨믵엲헍쒿뇪램ꆰ쓚퓚뗘좱랦춸쏷뛈ꆱ[3]ꆣ뛸쟒춨힢틢뗄쫇,20쫀볍90쓪듺쫇튻룶춨믵엲헍평룟떽믵엲헍쒿뇪램뗄잰햰탔뮹떼훂퇫탐뗄헾닟킧맻뿉쓜뗍뗄쓪듺,쪵탐럇춨믵엲헍쒿뇪램뗄맺볒,샽죧쪵탐뛌웚쓚뾴늻쟥,튲쓑틔움맀ꆣ믵뇒릩펦솿쒿뇪램뗄뗂맺,쪵탐틾몬쒿뇪램뗄쏀맺(컥)벼쫵랽쏦뗄삧쓑튲춬퇹좡뗃쇋솼뫃뗄헾닟킧맻ꆣ뛌뛌15쓪ퟳ폒뗄튻랽쏦,닉폃뫎훖컯볛횸쫽ퟷ캪춨믵엲헍횸뇪쪱볤,춨믵엲헍쒿뇪램짐캴뺭맽튻룶췪헻뗄짌튵훜쫇춨믵엲헍쒿뇪램훐뗄튻룶맘볼컊쳢ꆣ쒿잰,닉폃웚뗄뾼달,늻ퟣ틔뛔웤ퟷ튻룶좫쏦뗄움볛ꆣ뾼싇떽춨믵엲헍쒿뇪램뗄맺볒뚼퇘폃뛠쫽맺볒뫢솿춨믵엲짏쫶틲쯘,춨믵엲헍쒿뇪램쒿잰늢늻쫊뫏컒맺ꆣ늻헍싊뗄쿻럑헟컯볛횸쫽ퟷ캪춨믵엲헍횸뇪ꆣ듓튻뚨뿉럱죏,쫜뷰죚뒴탂뫍믵뇒쇷춨쯙뛈뇤뮯뗄펰쿬,컒돌뛈짏살쮵,쿻럑헟컯볛횸쫽쫇랴펳춨믵엲헍싊뗄맺틔믵뇒릩펦솿캪훐뷩쒿뇪뗄믵뇒헾닟뿲볜좷쪵폶샭쿫톡퓱,틲캪싺ퟣ짧믡돉풱룶죋뗄탨튪펦떱쫇튻떽쇋늻짙싩랳,헢튲쫇믵뇒릩펦솿믵뇒헾닟뿲볜뗄쟐뺭볃믮뚯뗄폅쿈쒿뗄,뛸쿻럑헟컯볛횸쫽쓜횱뷓만폐좱쿝,떫헢훖펰쿬떽뗗폐뛠듳,샭싛뷧짐듦퓚늻랴펳죋쏇캪캬돖튻뚨짺믮쮮욽쯹탨믵뇒뷰죚뗄뇤짙헹틩ꆣ퓚컒맺떱잰쟩뿶쿂,톡퓱믵뇒릩펦솿쒿뇪뮯ꆣ좻뛸춳볆늿쏅늻쫇룹뻝뚯첬뺭볃훐쿻럑헟뗄쾰램뗄믵뇒헾닟뿲볜틀좻쫇튻룶뇘좻톡퓱,믲헟쮵쫇맟늻뛏뇤뮯뛸훆뚨횸쫽,뛸쫇폃만뚨톡퓱폐듺뇭탔튻룶컞쓎뗄뇘좻톡퓱ꆣ떱잰컒맺펦떱퓚췪짆랢햹믵뗄닺욷뫍샍컱뗄튻삿ퟓ짌욷볛룱좥훆뚨횸쫽,헢뻍뇒릩펦솿쒿뇪램뗄춬쪱,뒴퓬쳵볾틔쪵쿖붫살쿲춨듦퓚욫닮ꆣ쇭튻랽쏦,쓜럱뺫좷풤닢캴살춨믵엲헍믵엲헍쒿뇪램믲웤쯻룼뫃뗄믵뇒헾닟뿲볜뇤,뷼뗄ퟟ쫆쫇믵뇒헾닟돉릦폫럱뗄맘볼틲쯘ꆣ헢뻍탨튪웚뿉틔붫춨믵엲헍싊ퟷ캪믵뇒헾닟뗄볠뿘쒿뇪ꆣ퇫탐붨솢튻룶뿉뾿뗄춨믵엲헍풤닢쒣탍,냑컕믵뇒헾닟뒫떼믺훆,맀볆돶믵뇒헾닟릤뻟뗷뷚뛔닺돶뫍ꆾ닎뾼컄쿗ꆿ볛룱닺짺펰쿬뗄쪱훍ꆣ떫쫇,컒맺쒿잰짐뒦폚뺭볃[1]ꆡ쿄뇳,쇎잿.믵뇒릩펦솿틑늻틋ퟷ캪떱잰컒맺믵뇒헾맬쪱웚,뺭볃훷쳥횮볤탐캪맘쾵췹췹늻뻟폐뿉탅닟뗄훐뷩쒿뇪[J].뺭볃퇐뺿,2001,(8):33-43.뛈[2]ꆡ뫘솦욽.믵뇒헾닟탂랽쿲:랴춨믵엲헍쒿뇪훆벰웤샭,듦퓚럇튻훂탔풤웚뗄뺭볃뷡릹,쟒뮹듦퓚볛룱맜훆쿖쿳,틲듋,튪붨솢튻룶뺫좷뗄풤닢쒣탍싛틀뻝[J].뺭볃퇐뺿,1998,(2):25-30.,늢쿠떱ힼ좷뗘맀볆돶믵뇒헾닟뇤뚯뛔춨믵엲헍펰쿬쫇튻쿮[3]ꆡ쇸폀쏷.춨믵엲헍쒿뇪훆뗄샭싛폫쪵볹:쪮쓪믘맋쪮럖볨뻞뗄죎컱ꆣ[J].쫀뷧뺭볃,2002,(1):23-30.[퓰죎뇠벭ꆡ헅ꆡ열]죽ꆢ뷡싛뺡맜쪵탐춨믵엲헍쒿뇪램맺볒뗄뺭퇩뇭쏷,춨AnanalysisofthefeasibilityofChinaꆯsinflationtargetingframeworkYANGLin(SchoolofEconomics&Management,GuangzhouUniversity,Guangzhou,Guangdong510006,China)ꆡꆡAbstract:Thecurrentmoneysupply2basedmonetarypolicyimplementedinChinaisfacingobviousproblemsparticularlyincontrollability,,somescholarssuggestedthattheinflationtar2getingframework,,,butinflationratecanbetakenastestandcontroltargets.ꆡꆡKeywords:inflationtargeting;monetarypolicyframework;feasibilityanalysis
