2002쓪뗚12웚컒맺럾컱튵퓶볓횵뗄뫋쯣컊쳢3퓀쾣쏷ꆡ헅쫯맢(훐맺짧믡뿆톧풺뺭볃퇐뺿쯹ꆡ100836)ꆡꆡ쓚죝쳡튪:놾컄벯훐쳖싛컒맺럾컱튵퓶볓횵맀쯣훐듦퓚뗄컊쳢ꆣ평폚샺쪷풭틲뫍럾컱튵놾짭뗄튻킩쳘뗣,컒맺쿖볛럾컱튵퓶볓횵놻퇏훘뗘뗍맀쇋,럾컱튵퓶뎤싊볆쯣튲뿉쓜듦퓚ퟅ욫닮ꆣ뛔럾컱튵퓶볓횵뗄틔췹퇐뺿뻹쫜떽믹뒡쫽뻝뗄쿞훆뛸캴쓜룹놾뗘뷢뻶헢킩컊쳢ꆣ럾컱튵춳볆뫋쯣뗄좱쿝퇏훘뗘ퟨ낭ퟅ뺭볃럖컶뫍뺭볃뻶닟ꆣ틲듋,룄짆컒맺럾컱튵춳볆뫋쯣쫇떱컱횮벱ꆣ듓뎤풶뗄뷇뛈살쮵,럾컱튵퓶볓횵뫋쯣뗄룄짆퓚뫜듳돌뛈짏좡뻶폚춳볆뗷닩뗄췪짆ꆣ떫쫇,퓚쿖폐뗄쳵볾쿂,죔좻폐뫜듳뗄룄짆폠뗘ꆣ맘볼듊:럾컱튵ꆡ퓶볓횵ꆡ맺쏱뺭볃뫋쯣ꆡ볛룱횸쫽튻ꆢ틽퇔:듓컒맺럾컱튵퓶볓횵뗍맀훐쳡돶뗄컊쳢릤튵퓶볓횵퓶뎤쯙뛈뗄룟맀뫍럾컱튵퓶볓횵뻸뛔쮮욽뗄뗍맀,쫇컒맺맺쏱뺭볃뫋쯣듦퓚뗄솽룶ퟮ퇏훘뗄컊쳢ꆣ잰헟퓚튻뚨돌뛈짏뗃떽뇈뷏돤럖뗄쳖싛,늢붫뗃떽폐킧뗄뷢뻶ꆣ웤풭틲폐솽룶:튻쫇럇맙랽퇐뺿뫍닢쯣틑뺭쳡릩쇋뷏캪샭쿫뗄늻뇤볛릤튵퓶볓횵(SzirmaiandRen,1995;Wu,2002),뛾쫇맙랽릤튵늻뇤볛퓶볓횵뗄볆쯣랽램붫튪평뒫춳뗄ꆰ늻뇤볛ꆱ룄캪폃볛룱횸쫽쯵복뗄랽램,헢붫쪹릤튵늻뇤볛퓶볓횵뗄맙랽닢쯣랢짺훊뗄룄짆ꆣꋙ릤튵퓶뎤쯙뛈룟맀뗄뇗뛋횮쯹틔쓜릻뗃떽룄짆풭틲튲폐솽룶:웤튻,릫훚뛔릤튵춳볆뗄잿쇒맘탄,늢캪듋뢶돶쇋뻞듳뗄얬솦;웤뛾,컒맺뒫춳짏훘쫓릤튵뗄춳볆훆뛈캪릤튵샺쪷쫽뻝뗄훘탂맀쯣쳡릩쇋쯹탨ퟮ킡쿞뛈뗄쫽뻝쇏ꆣ폫릤튵퓶볓횵뫋쯣뗄뷸늽쿠뇈,럾컱튵퓶볓횵뗍맀컊쳢뗃떽뗄룄짆돌뛈짵캢ꆣ뿉틔쮵,퓚룄룯뾪럅뗄20뛠쓪샯,럾컱튵퓶볓횵뗄맀쯣컊쳢뗃떽룄짆횻폐튻듎,쓇뻍쫇맺볒춳볆뻖룹뻝쫗듎뗚죽닺튵웕닩뗄뷡맻뛔럾컱튵퓶볓횵뷸탐뗄튻듎탔좫쏦짏뗷(탭쿜뒺,1999,뗚10헂)ꆣ뺡맜죧듋,떼훂컒맺럾컱튵퓶볓횵뗍맀뗄솽룶뇗늡,벴뫋쯣랶캧늻좫뫍럾컱볆볛맽뗍뗄컊쳢,죔쎻폐뗃떽룹놾탔뗄뷢뻶ꆣ룼캪틅몶뗄쫇,뛔룃컊쳢쯤좻폐맽튻킩럇맙랽뗄퇐뺿,떫쎻폐쿱뒦샭릤튵퓶뎤쯙뛈쓇퇹,뛔럾컱튵퓶볓횵쳡돶튻룶뷏맙랽춳볆룼샭쿫뗄맀쯣횵ꆣ쏱볤퇐뺿뗄ꆰ쪧냜ꆱ훷튪쫇틲캪좱짙닢쯣쯹탨튪뗄ퟮ킡쿞뛈뗄쫽뻝쇏ꆣ럾컱튵퓶볓횵뗄뗍맀컞틉룸뺭볃럖컶뫍뺭볃뻶닟듸살튻뚨뗄헏낭,웤훐ퟮ뗤탍뗄튻샽쫇솽쓪잰톧쫵뷧뛔뗚죽닺튵퓶볓횵뗄퓶뎤쯙뛈벰웤쯵복횸쫽뗄헹싛ꆣ20쫀볍헻룶90쓪듺,컒맺뗚죽닺튵퓶볓횵뗄쯵복횸쫽쫇죽룶닺튵훐짏짽ퟮ뿬뗄,떫폫듋쿠랴,뗚죽닺튵퓶볓횵뗄퓶뎤쯙뛈좴쫇죽룶닺튵훐ퟮ뗍뗄ꆣ폐죋냑럾컱튵돉뎤뗄쿠뛔훍뫳맩뻌폚헾뢮뗄맜훆ꆣ평폚헾뢮뛔뷌폽ꆢ춨톶ꆢ퓋쫤ꆢ뷰죚뗈뻸듳뛠쫽럾컱튵쪵탐퇏룱뗄맜훆,헢킩럾컱뗄릩룸싺ퟣ늻쇋죕틦삩듳뗄탨쟳,ퟮ훕떼훂럾컱튵뗄쯵복횸쫽뷏웤쯻탐튵짏짽뗃뿬ꆣ뛔럾컱튵퓶볓횵뗄쯵복횸쫽뫍퓶뎤쯙뛈횮볤뗄놳샫,룼폐튻킩죋듓춳볆짏헒풭틲,믲헟퓚잿뗷헾뢮맜훆ퟨ낭쇋럾컱릩펦뗄춬쪱,폖헒춳볆쫽ퟖ짏뗄풭틲(탭쿜뒺,2000a)ꆣ춳볆풭틲횮튻쫇,퓚릤튵뫍럾컱튵훐,뛔쿖볛퓶볓횵뷸탐쯵복볆쯣쫇늻뻹뫢뗄ꆣ튲뻍쫇쮵,쿖탐뗄늻뇤볛볆쯣랽램퓚룟맀쇋릤튵퓶볓횵퓶뎤쯙뛈뗄춬쪱,쿠펦뗘뗍맀쇋릤튵쯵복횸쫽ꆣ퓚헢훖쟩뿶쿂,벴쪹럾컱튵늻뇤볛퓶볓횵뗄볆쯣쎻폐죎뫎컊쳢,쿠뛔폚릤튵살쮵,럾컱튵퓶볓횵뗄퓶뎤쯙뛈튲믡뗍맀,뛸쯵복횸쫽퓲믡룟3ꆡ탭쿜뒺(맺볒춳볆뻖맺쏱뺭볃뫋쯣쮾)ꆢ죎죴뛷(놱뺩몽뿕몽쳬듳톧)ꆢ컩쿾펥(쿣룛샭릤듳톧)캪놾컄쳡돶쇋탭뛠붨틩,퓚듋뇭쪾룐킻ꆣ떫ퟷ헟뛔놾컄뗄튻쟐컊쳢뢺퓰ꆣ룃퇐뺿뗃떽쇋뢣쳘믹뷰믡릫릲헾닟퇐뺿헐뇪쿮쒿뗄훺,뇭쪾룐킻ꆣꋙꆡ릤튵퓶볓횵퓶뎤쯙뛈퓚쪵탐볛룱횸쫽쯵복뫳쫇럱볌탸룟맀,훷튪좡뻶폚살ퟔ뗘랽헾뢮뫍춳볆늿쏅뗄쫽뻝뛔쪵볊뺭볃뗄룟맀돌뛈쫇럱폺살폺듳ꆣ51' 1994-2007 China Academic Journal Electronic Publishing House. All rights reserved.
퓀쾣쏷ꆢ헅쫯맢:컒맺럾컱튵퓶볓횵뗄뫋쯣컊쳢맀ꆣ듓맙랽릫늼뗄쫽뻝살뾴,1990ꆪ1997쓪릤튵뫍뗚죽닺튵퓶볓횵뗄쓪욽뻹퓶뎤쯙뛈럖뇰쫇1610%뫍1211%,뛾헟뗄쯵복횸쫽퓚1997쓪럖뇰캪16712뫍20912(틔1990쓪캪100)ꆣ헢튻뷡맻뫍짏쏦쯹쳖싛뗄20쫀볍90쓪듺럾컱튵퓶볓횵뗄퓶뎤쯙뛈뫍쯵복횸쫽뗄짏짽럹뛈횮볤뗄맘쾵쫇튻훂뗄ꆣ떫쫇,죧맻쪹폃컩쿾펥뛔릤튵퓶뎤쯙뛈뗄맀볆뗄뮰(Wu,2002),뷡싛듳늻쿠춬ꆣ듋쪱,릤튵퓶뎤쯙뛈뫍쯵복횸쫽럖뇰뇤돉1211%뫍21217ꆣ헢퇹튻살,튻랽쏦릤튵뗄퓶뎤쯙뛈쏷쿔붵뗍,폫럾컱튵돖욽,쇭튻랽쏦,뇤뮯ퟮ듳뗄쫇릤튵퓶볓횵뗄쯵복횸쫽듳듳쳡룟,쟒룟폚럾컱튵ꆣ틲듋,쿠뛔폚웤쯻탐튵,죋쏇쯹맘힢뗄럾컱튵퓶볓횵뗄퓶뎤쯙뛈쿠뛔욫뗍뛸쯵복횸쫽쿠뛔욫룟뗄쿖쿳,뫜뿉쓜쫇평폚퓶볓횵뗄맀쯣랽램늻떱퓬돉,뛸늻쫇헢뛎쪱웚쓚컒맺뺭볃짺믮훐쪵볊랢짺뗄ꆣ헢룶샽ퟓ돤럖뗘쿔쪾쇋쫽뻝뛔럖컶뷡맻뗄펰쿬횮듳ꆣ놾컄쿂쏦뗄뷡릹낲업죧쿂:뗚뛾뷚쳖싛럾컱튵퓶볓횵뗍맀뗄솽룶훷튪틲쯘,벴뫋쯣랶캧늻좫뫍늿럖럾컱볆볛맽뗍ꆣ뗚죽뷚뷩짜폐맘뛔컒맺럾컱튵퓶볓횵뗄럇맙랽퇐뺿벰웤뷡맻,늢움볛웤뷸햹뫍늻ퟣꆣ뗚쯄뷚춨맽ퟐ쾸볬쳖튻킩샻폃맺볒춳볆뻖릫늼뗄폐맘뗚죽닺튵쫽뻝뗃떽뗄럖컶뷡맻,쳖싛헢킩럖컶뷡맻쫇죧뫎쫜쫽뻝펰쿬뗄ꆣퟮ뫳뗚컥뷚뻍죧뫎룄짆컒맺럾컱튵퓶볓횵뫋쯣쳡돶컒쏇뗄붨틩ꆣ뛾ꆢ럾컱튵퓶볓횵뗍맀풭틲뗄웊컶떼훂럾컱튵퓶볓횵뻸뛔쮮욽뗍맀뗄틲쯘훷튪폐솽룶:뫋쯣랶캧뗄늻좫뫍늿럖럾컱튵볆볛맽뗍ꆣ맋쏻쮼틥,뫋쯣랶캧늻좫쫇횸놾펦춳볆뗄뚫컷좴퓚뫋쯣맽돌훐슩뗴쇋,쪹뗃뫋쯣뷡맻횻쓜냼삨헻룶럾컱믮뚯뗄튻늿럖,ퟮ훕떼훂럾컱튵퓶볓횵뗄뗍맀ꆣWorldBank(1992)쇐뻙뗄춳볆랶캧늻좫믲헟쎻폐놻춳볆뗄럾컱훷튪폐얩듥럾컱(폈웤쫇평얩듥룶죋쳡릩뗄퓋쫤럾컱)뫍돇쫐훐듳솿얩듥죋뿚쳡릩뗄럾컱(죧킬붳ꆢ놣쒷ꆢ틻쪳첯랷뗈)ꆣ떫쫇,럾컱튵춳볆랶캧늻좫뻶늻쿞폚헢킩쇣즢뗄뫍훷튪평룶죋쳡릩뗄럾컱ꆣ춳볆랶캧짏뗄좱쿝벸뫵듦퓚폚쯹폐뗄럾컱,폈웤쫇쓇킩룄룯뾪럅뫳탂탋뗄럾컱,죧싉쪦뫍믡볆쪦럾컱ꆢ짏췸럾컱ꆢ횤좯럾컱ꆢ쮽죋쳡릩뗄뷌폽럾컱뗈뗈ꆣ헢늢늻쫇쮵헢킩탂탋럾컱튵퓶볓횵뗄좫늿뚼놻춳볆틅슩쇋,뛸쫇쮵평폚쎻폐쾵춳뫍췪헻뗄춳볆,춳볆랶캧늻좫컊쳢뗄퇏훘듦퓚쫇늻뿉럱죏뗄ꆣ즣쓃ꆢ루쳼틔벰첯랷뗈럾컱,뻟폐쇣즢ꆢ짵훁쒳훖럇램탔뗈쳘헷,놻돆캪캴맛달뺭볃(non2observedeconomy),쒿잰춳볆쎻폐볆쯣웤퓶볓횵,믲헟횻볆쯣쇋웤훐뫜킡뗄튻늿럖ꆣ솪뫏맺춳볆쫰탞뚩뗄1993쓪SNA(SystemofNationalAccounts)튪쟳뛔룃샠캴맛달뺭볃튲튪볆쯣웤퓶볓횵ꆣ틲듋,컒맺맺쏱뺭볃뫋쯣캴살뗄튻룶훘튪뿎쳢쫇죧뫎볆쯣캴맛달뺭볃뗄퓶볓횵ꆣ럾컱튵볆볛맽뗍튲쫇떼훂컒맺럾컱튵퓶볓횵뗍맀뗄튻룶훘튪틲쯘ꆣퟮ뗤탍뗄샽ퟓ쫇떥캻쳡릩룸횰릤뗄힡랿뗄랿ퟢ맽뗍,뷓뷼쏢럑ꆣ헢쫇컒쏇랿뗘닺튵퓶볓횵퇏훘뗍맀ퟮ훷튪뗄풭틲ꆣ퓚컒맺럾컱튵퓶볓횵뗄맀볆뛠닉폃쫕죫램뗄쟩뿶쿂(닎볻뇭1),럾컱튵볆볛맽뗍뛔룃탐튵퓶볓횵뗍맀뗄펰쿬훷튪뇭쿖퓚뛔샍뚯솦볛룱ꆪꆪꆪ릤뗄뗍맀떼훂쇋럾컱튵퓶볓횵뗄뗍맀짏ꆣ내쫕죫램볆쯣뗄퓶볓횵냼삨샍뚯헟놨돪ꆢ펪튵펯폠ꆢ만뚨놾헛뻉뫍짺닺쮰뺻뛮쯄룶늿럖ꆣ웤훐,릤쫇ퟮ듳뗄튻늿럖ꆣ늻뷶죧듋,럾컱튵듳뛠쫇샍뚯쏜벯탍닺튵,샍뚯헟놨돪퓚퓶볓횵훐햼뗄뇈훘뷏웤쯻탐튵룼룟ꆣ쿔뛸틗볻,죧맻샍뚯헟놨돪놻뗍맀뗄뮰,헻룶퓶볓횵튲믡놻뗍맀ꆣꋙ평폚듳솿쓑틔춳볆뗄믒즫쫕죫듦퓚,뗍맀샍뚯헟놨돪뗄쟩탎듦퓚폚뫜뛠럾컱탐튵,떫쫇뗍맀돌뛈ퟮ듳뗄뿉쓜쫇뷌폽럾컱뫍튽쇆럾컱ꆣ뷌폽탐튵샍뚯헟쫕죫뗄뗍맀폫뷼쓪살뷌쪦쫕죫뗄뛠퇹뮯뫍쏱냬뷌폽뗄탋웰폐ퟅ횱뷓뗄맘쾵ꆣ쯦ퟅ뷌쪦쫕죫살풴뗄훰늽뛠퇹뮯,돽평맺볒횧뢶뗄만뚨릤췢,볦횰쫕죫ꆢ붲뿎쫕죫ꆢ쿮쒿쫕죫ꆢ냬냠쫕죫틔벰믹폚톧짺쫕럑뛸퓶볓뗄쫕죫뗈뻹돉캪뷌쪦뗄훘튪쫕죫살풴,뛸쟒퓚뫜뛠쟩뿶쿂,릤쫕죫퓚헻룶쫕죫훐쯹햼뇈훘뫜뗍,릤췢쫕죫쯹햼뗄뇈훘뫜룟ꆣ뛔죧듋쏻쒿랱뛠뗄룷쿮쫕죫,컒맺쿖탐뗄춳볆뗷닩쓜릻ힼ좷냑컕뗄횻폐평맺볒닆헾뢺떣뗄뷌횰릤릤ꆣ웤쯻쫕죫쿮쒿훐,돽쇋퇐뺿죋풱듓맺볒훺쿮쒿(샽죧맺볒ퟔ좻뿆톧믹뷰쿮쒿ꆢ짧뿆믹뷰쿮쒿뗈)뗃떽뗄쿮쒿쫕죫(룃쫕죫뿉틔듓맺볒닆헾뻶쯣쇏훐좡뗃)틔췢,퓚춳볆짏벸뫵컞램냑컕,믲헟늻쓜뷸ꋙ릤쫕죫뗄뗍맀떼훂퓶볓횵뗍맀뗄튻룶샽췢쫇,퓚펮샻탔럾컱튵,죧맻릤쫕죫뫍쫕죫램퓶볓횵훐웤쯻죽룶릹돉튪쯘듦퓚쿠뮥뗖쿻뗄맘쾵쪱,릤쫕죫뗄뗍맀늢늻펰쿬퓶볓횵ꆣ샽죧,웳튵퓚뷸탐쫕죫럖엤쪱뿉쓜춨맽붵뗍샍뚯헟릤살퓶볓펪튵펯폠ꆣ죧맻헢퇹뗄뮰,릤뗍맀횻쫇퓶볓탂뒴퓬볛횵훐뛔놾뗄럖엤뇈샽,춬쪱붵뗍뛔샍뚯뗄럖엤뇈샽,떫늢늻펰쿬퓶볓횵뗄뻸뛔뛮ꆣ떫쫇,컒쏇붫퓚놾컄쳖싛뗄헽쪽릤틔췢뗄틾탍쫕죫,틔벰웳튵캪쇋쳓쮰뛸틔럇릤뗄탎쪽횧뢶룸샍뚯헟뗄쫕죫,뻹늻뫍퓶볓횵뗄웤쯻릹돉튪쯘듦퓚쿠뮥뗖쿻맘쾵ꆣ52' 1994-2007 China Academic Journal Electronic Publishing House. All rights reserved.
2002쓪뗚12웚탐좫쏦뗄냑컕ꆣ돽쇋평맺볒쳡릩틔췢,뷌폽럾컱춬쪱평쏱볤믺릹살쳡릩,폈웤쫇퓚돵뗈뷌폽럾컱짏,평쏱볤쳡릩뗄뇈훘훰늽퓶듳ꆣ평폚쏱냬뷌폽틔펯샻캪쒿뗄,퓶볓횵훐돽샍뚯헟놨돪틔췢,펪튵펮폠틠쫇퓶볓횵뗄훘튪ퟩ돉늿럖,떫쫇평폚컒쏇좱랦냑컕쏱냬뷌폽뗄춳볆쫖뛎,룃탐튵퓶볓횵뗄좫늿,믲헟쮵뻸듳늿럖늻쓜볆죫떽뷌폽뗄퓶볓횵훐살ꆣ뇭1컒맺럾컱튵쯹쫴12룶탐튵닺돶ꆢ퓶볓횵뫋쯣랽램틔벰쪵훊뮯랽램뫅싫탐튵짺닺램쫕죫램쪵훊뮯랽램1얩ꆢ쇖ꆢ쓁ꆢ폦럾컱튵#떥쯵램ꆣ볛룱횸쫽쪹폃뻓쏱쿻럑볛룱횸쫽훐럾컱쿮쒿ퟜ횸쫽2뗘훊뾱닩튵쮮샻맜샭튵#떥쯵램ꆣ볛룱횸쫽쪹폃뻓쏱쿻럑볛룱횸쫽훐럾컱쿮쒿ퟜ횸쫽3붻춨퓋쫤ꆢ닖뒢벰폊뗧,##췢췆램ꆣ쯹쪹폃뗄컯솿횸쫽죧쿂:춨탅튵ꆡ붻춨퓋쫤뫍닖뒢튵##ꆡ뿍믵뮻쯣ퟜ훜솿횸쫽ꆡ폊뗧춨탅튵##폊뗧춨탅튵컱ퟜ솿횸쫽4엺랢뫍쇣쫛쎳틗닍틻튵##떥쯵램ꆣ볛룱횸쫽쪹폃좫맺짌욷쇣쫛볛룱횸쫽5뷰죚ꆢ놣쿕튵##떥쯵램ꆣ볛룱횸쫽쪹폃뻓쏱쿻럑볛룱횸쫽뫍만뚨닺춶볛룱횸쫽뗄볓좨욽뻹쫽,좨쫽럖뇰쫇횧돶램맺쓚짺닺ퟜ횵훐뗄뻓쏱쿻럑뫍만뚨놾탎돉ퟜ뛮뗄뇈훘ꆣ6랿뗘닺튵##랿뗘닺튵퓶볓횵쯹몬쯄늿럖쪵훊뮯랽램럖뇰쫇:랿뗘닺뾪랢튵퓶볓횵쪹폃랿뗘닺볛룱횸쫽훐뗄랿컝쿺쫛볛룱횸쫽쯵복;랿뗘닺맜샭튵퓶볓횵쪹폃뻓쏱쿻럑볛룱횸쫽쯵복;탂퓶뻓쏱ퟔ폐힡랿헛뻉샻폃만뚨닺춶볛룱횸쫽쯵복;풭폐뻓쏱ퟔ폐힡랿헛뻉뗄늻뇤볛뗈폚잰웚늻뇤볛헛뻉뿛돽췋틛뗄ퟔ폐힡랿헛뻉ꆣ7짧믡럾컱튵#떥쯵램ꆣ볛룱횸쫽쪹폃뻓쏱쿻럑볛룱횸쫽훐럾컱쿮쒿쯹냼몬뗄붻춨럑ꆢ쾴샭쏀죝럑ꆢ탞샭벰웤쯻럾컱럑죽쿮볛룱횸쫽)8컀짺쳥폽뫍짧믡뢣샻튵#떥쯵램ꆣ볛룱횸쫽쪹폃뻓쏱쿻럑볛룱횸쫽훐럾컱쿮쒿쯹냼몬뗄튽쇆놣붡럾컱럑볛룱횸쫽9뷌폽ꆢ컄뮯틕쫵벰맣능,#떥쯵램ꆣ볛룱횸쫽쪹폃뻓쏱쿻럑볛룱횸쫽훐럾컱쿮쒿쯹냼몬뗧펰뗧쫓튵뗄컄폩럑ꆢ톧퓓놣폽럑볛룱횸쫽10뿆톧퇐뺿뫍ퟛ뫏벼쫵럾#떥쯵램ꆣ볛룱횸쫽쪹폃뻓쏱쿻럑볛룱횸쫽훐럾컱쿮쒿ퟜ횸쫽컱튵11맺볒믺맘ꆢ헾떳믺맘뫍짧#떥쯵램ꆣ볛룱횸쫽쪹폃뻓쏱쿻럑볛룱횸쫽훐럾컱쿮쒿ퟜ횸쫽믡췅쳥12웤쯻탐튵#떥쯵램ꆣ볛룱횸쫽쪹폃뻓쏱쿻럑볛룱횸쫽훐럾컱쿮쒿ퟜ횸쫽ꆡꆡ힢:룃뇭룹뻝탭쿜뒺(2000b)뗚2헂뫍뗚4헂ퟷ돉ꆣ짺닺램훐ꆰ#ꆱ뇭쪾룃탐튵쪹폃짺닺램볆쯣퓶볓횵,쫕죫램훐ꆰ#ꆱ뇭쪾룃탐튵뗄퓶볓횵쫇폃쫕죫램볆쯣뗄ꆣ퓚퓶볓횵뗄볆쯣짏,튽쇆탐튵뫍뷌폽탐튵뗄쟩뿶뿉틔쮵쫇췪좫쿠춬ꆣ폫튻킩쿈뷸맺볒늻춬,컒맺튽짺폫웤쯻횰튵쿠뇈뷏,릤쏷쿔욫뗍ꆣ헢훖쿠뛔욫뗍뗄릤쫕죫춨맽룷훖룷퇹뗄랽쪽뗃떽쇋튻뚨돌뛈뗄늹뎥ꆰ,뫬냼ꆱ쫇웤훐횮튻ꆣ헽뎣뗄죫풺럑ꆢ쫖쫵럑뛔뮼헟살쮵횻쫇튽쇆럑뗄튻늿럖,뛸쇭췢횧뢶룸쫖쫵튽짺ꆢ싩ퟭ튽짺뗈뗄럑폃쫇뮼헟횧뢶럑폃뗄훘튪ퟩ돉늿럖ꆣ뮼헟뗄헢늿럖횧돶쫇튽짺쫕죫살풴뗄튻늿럖,뛸뛔헢튻늿럖쫕죫뗄뫋쯣,춳볆횻쓜53' 1994-2007 China Academic Journal Electronic Publishing House. All rights reserved.
퓀쾣쏷ꆢ헅쫯맢:컒맺럾컱튵퓶볓횵뗄뫋쯣컊쳢룐떽컞쓜캪솦ꆣ뫋쯣랶캧늻췪헻뫍늿럖럾컱볆볛맽뗍,횱뷓떼훂쇋뗍맀컒맺내쿖볛볆쯣뗄럾컱튵퓶볓횵,떫쫇웤펰쿬늢캴뻍듋뷡쫸ꆣ내늻뇤볛볆쯣뗄럾컱튵퓶볓횵벰웤퓶뎤쯙뛈튲늻뿉뇜쏢뗘쫜떽펰쿬ꆣ틲캪컒맺뗚죽닺튵뗄뛠쫽탐튵닉폃쯵복횸쫽램볆쯣늻뇤볛퓶볓횵(뇭1),튲뻍쫇쮵,늻뇤볛퓶볓횵쫇평쿖볛퓶볓횵돽틔볛룱횸쫽뗃떽뗄ꆣ틲듋,쿖볛퓶볓횵뗄뗍맀횱뷓떼훂늻뇤볛퓶볓횵뗄뗍맀,뛸럾컱튵퓶볓횵뗄퓶뎤쯙뛈쫇놻뗍맀쇋뮹쫇놻룟맀쇋,퓲췪좫좡뻶폚뗍맀늿럖뛔쿖볛퓶볓횵뗄뇈샽쫇짏짽쇋뮹쫇쿂붵쇋ꆣ죧맻룃뇈샽훰쓪퓶볓뗄뮰,쓇쎴퓶뎤쯙뛈믡뗍맀ꆣ랴횮,죧맻럾컱튵뗄춳볆랶캧훰쓪뗃떽룄짆뗄뮰,쓇쎴퓶뎤쯙뛈믡놻룟맀ꆣ뛸놻뗍맀뗄럾컱튵퓶볓횵뛔틑뺭춳볆짏살뗄퓶볓횵뗄뇈샽쫇훰쓪퓶볓,뮹쫇훰쓪붵뗍뗄쓘?쿖폐뗄쇏뫍퇐뺿뷡맻뮹늻ퟣ틔죃컒쏇ힼ좷뗘ퟶ돶에뛏ꆣ틲듋,컒쏇튲컞램횪뗀쒿잰맙랽릫늼뗄쫽ퟖ쫇룟맀쇋뮹쫇뗍맀쇋럾컱튵뗄퓶뎤쯙뛈ꆣ헢튻뗣폫릤튵뷘좻늻춬ꆣ볈좻뫋쯣랶캧늻췪헻ꆢ늿럖럾컱볆볛맽뗍틔벰샍뚯헟릤쫕죫뗍맀쫇퓬돉컒맺럾컱튵퓶볓횵뗍맀뗄춳볆틲쯘,쓇쎴,헢킩춳볆짏뗄좱쿝폖살풴폚뫎뒦쓘?럾컱튵춳볆짏뗄좱쿝늿럖살풴폚럾컱놾짭쯹뻟폐뗄쳘탔,늿럖살풴폚컒맺뎤웚뗄춳볆쪵볹ꆣ럾컱튵놾짭냼삨훚뛠럇춬훊탐튵,맦쒣킡,볒춥뺭펪뇈훘듳,헾뢮뫍쏱볤럇펮샻ퟩ횯닎폫돌뛈룟(죧뷌폽ꆢ튽쇆뗈)ꆣ럾컱튵쯹뻟폐뗄헢킩탔훊늻뷶쪹뗃퓚춳볆짏좫쏦뗘냑컕룃탐튵쿠뛔삧쓑,춬쪱평폚듳솿럾컱늻춨맽쫐뎡뷸탐쳡릩,떼훂퓶볓횵볆쯣늻뿉뇜쏢뗘냼몬뢴퓓뗄짵훁늻쟐뫏쪵볊뗄탩쓢볆쯣(imputation)ꆣ춬튻럾컱횻쫇틲캪쳡릩헟늻춬,퓶볓횵뗄볆쯣랶캧뫍볆볛랽쪽튲늻췪좫쿠춬ꆣꋙ떼훂럾컱튵춳볆듦퓚퇏훘좱쿝뗄쇭췢튻룶풭틲쫇컒맺춳볆뗷닩훆뛈뛔럾컱튵춳볆뗄쿠뛔뫶쫓ꆣ펦떱쮵,뛔럾컱튵춳볆뗄뫶쫓퓚쫀뷧룷맺쫇룶웕뇩쿖쿳(Griliches,1994,뗚14튳;릵뿚,1979,뗚29튳)ꆣ헢튻뗣훷튪룹풴폚쿖탐뗄춳볆뗷닩훆뛈쫇퓚럾컱튵햼헻룶맺쏱뺭볃뗄뇈훘짐뗍뗄퓧웚붨솢웰살뗄ꆣ뺭볃랢햹퓧웚,얩튵퓚헻룶뺭볃훐햼뻸뛔뗄뗘캻ꆣ웤뫳,틔릤튵뗄톸쯙랢햹캪뇪횾뗄릤튵뮯쫇쿖듺뺭볃퓶뎤ퟮ훘튪뗄쳘헷,뛸럾컱튵놻뾴돉쫇쯦ퟅ뺭볃랢햹ퟔ좻뛸좻퓶볓웤퓚맺쏱뺭볃훐뇈훘뗄탐튵,냑럾컱튵컳죏캪듓쫴폚웤쯻탐튵뗄맛쓮컞틉볓뻧쇋춳볆뗷닩훐뛔럾컱튵뗄뫶쫓ꆣ떫쫇,컒맺뛔럾컱튵춳볆뗄뫶쫓듯떽쇋벫뛋뗄뗘늽,웤횱뷓풭틲쫇컒맺뎤웚쪹폃컯훊닺욷쳥쾵(MPS)살뷸탐맺쏱뺭볃뫋쯣ꆣ퓚컯훊닺욷쳥쾵쿂,럾컱튵뗄뻸듳늿럖놻죏캪쫇럇짺닺탔뗄,듓뛸놻업돽퓚뫋쯣뛔쿳틔췢ꆣ평폚컒맺붨맺틔살뎤웚쪹폃MPS볆쯣ퟜ닺횵뫍맺쏱쫕죫,뛔럾컱튵쎻폐쾵춳뫍뚨웚뗄춳볆,럾컱튵퓶볓횵뗄맀쯣좱짙ퟮ킡쿞뛈뗄쫽뻝쇏ꆣ캪쇋룄짆럾컱튵춳볆,컒맺퓚1993-1994쓪웚볤쪵탐쇋붨맺틔살뗚튻듎뗚죽닺튵웕닩,늢뻶뚨쎿10쓪뷸탐튻듎,헢컞틉뛔룄짆컒맺럾컱튵춳볆웰쇋뫍벴붫웰떽훘듳뗄ퟷ폃,떫쫇평폚웕닩뗄욵뛈뗍,솽듎웕닩횮볤볤룴쪱볤뎤,럾컱튵뫋쯣훐듦퓚뗄믹뒡쫽뻝좱랦뗄컊쳢늢쎻폐뗃떽룹놾뗄뷢뻶ꆣ럾컱튵퓶볓횵뗄뗍맀컊쳢놻웕뇩죏캪쫇컒맺럾컱튵뫋쯣뗄훷튪컊쳢,짵훁쫇캩튻뗄컊쳢ꆣ쿖쪵쫇럱죧듋쓘?떱럾컱튵퓶볓횵뗍맀컊쳢놻뷢뻶횮뫳,컒맺뗄럾컱튵뫋쯣쫇럱뻍늻듦퓚컊쳢,믲헟뻍늻듦퓚쳘뇰뗄퇏훘컊쳢쇋쓘?믘듰쫇럱뚨뗄,웤풭틲쫇럾컱튵늻뇤볛퓶볓횵뗄맀쯣쫇벫웤삧쓑뗄ꆣ럾컱늻뇤볛퓶볓횵볆쯣뗄삧쓑살ퟔ폚럾컱놾짭만폐뗄쳘헷ꆣ폫폐탎뗄닺욷(goods)늻춬,뛔폚듳뛠쫽럾컱,죋쏇뮹헒늻떽튻룶뫏쫊뗘닢솿웤쫽솿뗄컯샭떥캻(physicalunit),쎻폐컯샭떥캻,뻍쓑틔뚨틥볛룱,뷸뛸컞램뇠훆ힼ좷뗄볛룱횸쫽뫍쫽솿횸쫽,늻뇤볛퓶볓횵튲평듋쓑틔볆쯣ꆣ뺡맜쒿잰탭뛠맺볒,냼삨쿈뷸맺볒뫍실뫳맺볒쪹폃볛룱횸쫽쯵복뗄냬램살볆쯣럾컱튵늻뇤볛퓶볓횵,떫쫇쯹쪹폃뗄볛룱횸쫽뻹듦퓚쏷쿔뗄좱쿝ꆣ헢튻뗣퓚쫀뷧룷맺뚼쫇릲춬뗄,쿂쏦춨맽뛔컒맺샽ퟓ뗄쳖싛살뷸튻늽샭뷢헢튻뗣ꆣ뫍폐탎짌욷늻뇤볛퓶볓횵뗄볆쯣랽램쿠춬,볆쯣럾컱뗄늻뇤볛퓶볓횵폐솽훖랽램:샻폃쫽솿횸쫽뗄췢췆램뫍샻폃볛룱횸쫽뗄쯵복램ꆣ퓚컒맺,럾컱튵늻뇤볛퓶볓횵뗄볆쯣돽퓋쫤춨탅튵틔췢,뻹닉폃쯵복램(뇭1),쪹폃뗄볛룱횸쫽뫍웤쯻쪹폃쯵복램뗄맺볒틠쎻폐쪵훊탔뗄닮틬ꆣ듓뇭1훐뿉틔뾴떽,볆쯣엺랢쇣쫛튵늻뇤볛퓶볓횵쪹폃뗄쫇엺랢쇣쫛튵쯹싲싴짌욷뗄볛룱횸쫽ꆣ뻓쏱쿻럑볛룱횸쫽뫍만뚨닺춶볛룱횸쫽뗄볓좨욽뻹놻폃살맀쯣뷰죚놣쿕튵늻뇤볛퓶볓횵ꆣ튽쇆컀짺튵쪹폃뗄쫇뻓쏱쿻럑볛룱횸쫽훐럾컱쿮쒿쯹냼몬뗄튽쇆놣붡럾컱럑볛룱횸쫽ꆣ헢킩볛룱횸쫽횮쯹틔놻쪹폃,횻쫇틲캪쒿잰쎻폐웤쯻룼뫃뗄볛룱횸쫽뿉틔닉폃,늢늻쫇틲캪쯼쏇쓜릻ힼ좷뗘랴펳헢킩럾컱뗄볛룱뇤뮯ꆣ볆쯣엺랢쇣쫛튵늻뇤볛퓶볓횵쪱횮쯹틔닉폃룃탐튵싲싴짌욷뗄볛룱횸쫽,쫇틲캪늻쓜뫏샭뗘뇠훆엺랢쇣쫛럾컱뗄볛룱횸쫽ꆣ짌욷볛룱놾짭뗄뇤뚯퓚뛠듳돌뛈짏쓜릻랴펳냑헢킩짌욷듓짺닺헟쫖훐엺랢쇣ꋙ쫕죫램볆쯣뗄뷌폽ꆢ튽쇆놣붡럾컱뗄퓶볓횵,평쏱볤쳡릩뗄냼삨펪튵펯폠,뛸평헾뢮뫍쏱볤럇펮샻ퟩ횯쳡릩쪱퓲늻냼삨펪튵펯폠ꆣ54' 1994-2007 China Academic Journal Electronic Publishing House. All rights reserved.
2002쓪뗚12웚쫛떽쿻럑헟쫖훐쯹쳡릩뗄쇷춨럾컱뗄ꆰ볛룱ꆱ뇤뮯횵뗃뮳틉ꆣ뷼쓪살,볆쯣믺틔벰웤쯻룟뿆벼닺욷볛룱쿂붵럹뛈뷏듳,떫쫇뫜쓑쮵볆쯣믺뗄쇷춨럾컱뗄ꆰ볛룱ꆱ쯦횮춬쪱뫍춬뇈싊뗘쿂붵ꆣ헢훖쟩뿶쿂,폃볆쯣믺뗄볛룱뇤뮯살맀쯣볆쯣믺쇷춨럾컱뗄늻뇤볛퓶볓횵,볆쯣믺쇷춨럾컱뻍늻뿉뇜쏢뗘놻룟맀ꆣ쿠랴,뛔폚쓇킩볛룱짏짽럹뛈뇈뷏듳뗄짌욷,룃짌욷뗄볛룱뇤뮯믡뗍맀룃짌욷쇷춨럾컱뗄쪵훊퓶뎤ꆣퟮ뫳,폃짌욷쇣쫛볛룱횸쫽쯵복뗃떽뗄헻룶엺랢쇣쫛튵늻뇤볛퓶볓횵,쫇뗍맀쇋뮹쫇룟맀쇋룃탐튵뗄퓶뎤쯙뛈,컒쏇뻍컞램횪뗀쇋ꆣ뫍쇷춨럾컱튻퇹,닉폃뻓쏱쿻럑볛룱횸쫽뫍만뚨닺춶볛룱횸쫽살쯵복뷰죚놣쿕튵쿖볛퓶볓횵,틔좡뗃룃탐튵뗄늻뇤볛퓶볓횵뗄ퟶ램,춬퇹쫇틲캪쎻폐뫏쫊뗄뷰죚뫍놣쿕럾컱뗄볛룱횸쫽ꆣ퓚헢샯횮쯹틔쪹폃뛾헟뗄볓좨욽뻹쫇틲캪뷰죚놣쿕럾컱뗄튻늿럖쳡릩룸뻓쏱,탎돉뻓쏱쿻럑,쇭튻늿럖퓲쫇쳡릩룸웳튵,돉캪만뚨닺탎돉뗄튻늿럖ꆣ폃뻓쏱쿻럑볛룱횸쫽뫍만뚨닺춶볛룱횸쫽살쯵복뷰죚놣쿕튵퓶볓횵뗄ퟶ램낵몬ퟅ헢퇹뗄볙뚨,벴쳡릩룸뻓쏱뗄뷰죚놣쿕럾컱뗄볛룱뇤뮯폫헻룶뻓쏱쿻럑볛룱횸쫽쿠뗈,쳡릩룸웳튵뗄뷰죚놣쿕럾컱뗄볛룱횸쫽뗈폚헻룶만뚨닺춶볛룱횸쫽ꆣ헢훖퇏룱뗄볙뚨쫇럱돉솢횵뗃뮳틉ꆣ폫엺랢쇣쫛튵뫍뷰죚놣쿕튵늻춬,튽쇆컀짺튵늻뇤볛퓶볓횵뗄볆쯣쪹폃쇋튽쇆컀짺럾컱ꆰ놾짭ꆱ뗄볛룱횸쫽,평듋뗃떽뗄튽쇆럾컱튵늻뇤볛퓶볓횵튲탭놻죏캪쫇쎻폐컊쳢뗄ꆣ웤쪵늻좻,헢샯죔좻듦퓚ퟅ뫜뛠컊쳢ꆣꋙ뗚튻,룹뻝맺볒춳볆훆뛈,튽쇆놣붡럾컱볛룱횸쫽냼삨맒뫅럑(웕춨쏅헯,듎)ꆢ힢짤럑(벡죢힢짤,듎)ꆢ쫖쫵럑(듎)ꆢ힡풺럑(쳬)ꆢ볬닩럑(듎)ꆢ샭쇆럑(듎)6쿮(맺볒춳볆뻖,1999뗚599튳),룃6쿮럑폃햼뻓쏱헻룶컀짺쳥폽뫍짧믡뢣샻튵횧돶뗄뇈훘폐뛠듳쫇룶훘튪컊쳢,뇈훘맽킡믡펰쿬볛룱횸쫽뗄듺뇭탔ꆣ뗚뛾,뇠훆튽쇆놣붡럾컱볛룱횸쫽닉폃뗄컯샭떥캻쫇ꆰ듎ꆱ뫍ꆰ쳬ꆱ뗈,헢킩떥캻벸뫵늻쓜ퟷ캪뫢솿튽쇆럾컱뗄컯샭떥캻ꆣ틲캪튽쇆럾컱(웤쯻럾컱믹놾쿠춬)뗄ꆰ룶탔ꆱ쳘뇰잿,쎻폐솽듎쫖쫵쫇췪좫튻퇹뗄ꆣ틲듋폃ꆰ듎ꆱ믲ꆰ쳬ꆱퟷ캪닢솿튽쇆럾컱뗄컯샭떥캻살볆쯣볛룱횸쫽,뇘좻믡냑평폚뒿듢볛룱뇤뚯틔췢뗄틲쯘쯹퓬돉뗄볛룱뇤뚯좫늿냼삨떽볛룱횸쫽떱훐,뛸평폚뒿듢볛룱뇤뚯틔췢뗄틲쯘틽웰뗄볛룱뇤뚯쫇늻펦떱냼삨퓚볛룱횸쫽훐뗄ꆣ뗚죽,쿖탐뗄튽쇆놣붡럾컱볛룱횸쫽뫜뿉쓜쎻폐뛔튽쇆럾컱훊솿뗄뇤뮯뷸탐뗷헻ꆣ뫜뛠럾컱뗄훊솿쯦ퟅ벼쫵뷸늽뗈웤쯻풭틲뛸늻뛏뗘룄짆,폐쪱럾컱훊솿뗄룄짆냩쯦ퟅ돉놾뗄짏짽,뷸뛸듸살볛룱뗄짏짽ꆣ냩쯦훊솿뗄룄짆쯹듸살뗄볛룱짏헇쫇늻펦떱볆쯣떽볛룱횸쫽떱훐좥뗄ꆣ퓚뇠훆럾컱볛룱횸쫽쪱,죧뫎뛔럾컱훊솿룄짆뷸탐뗷헻쫇룷맺볛룱횸쫽뇠훆릤ퟷ쯹쏦쇙뗄ퟮ듳쓑쳢ꆣ뛔훊솿룄짆늻ퟷ죎뫎뗷헻뇘좻믡룟맀럾컱볛룱뗄짏짽,뗍맀럾컱쪵훊퓶볓횵뗄퓶뎤ꆣ떥뻍럾컱튵늻뇤볛퓶볓횵맀쯣훐듦퓚뗄컊쳢살쮵(돽쿖볛퓶볓횵뗍맀틔췢),컒맺늢늻뇈웤쯻맺볒퇏훘뛠짙,떫쫇헢늢늻틢캶ퟅ컒쏇뿉틔뛔늻뇤볛퓶볓횵뗄볆쯣랽램,폈웤쫇볆쯣늻뇤볛퓶볓횵쪱쯹쪹폃뗄룷훖볛룱횸쫽늻ퟶ죎뫎뗄룄뷸얬솦ꆣ뛔룷샠볛룱횸쫽뗄쿪쾸볬쳖,맀볆웤뛔럾컱튵퓶뎤싊뿉쓜닺짺뗄욫닮,틔벰뎢쫔늻춬뗄랽램살맀쯣럾컱튵늻뇤볛퓶볓횵뗈얬솦늻떫쫇뇘탨뗄,춬쪱튲쫇뿉쓜뗄ꆣ죽ꆢ뛔럾컱튵퓶볓횵뗍맀뗄틔췹퇐뺿뗄움쫶뫍릤튵퓶볓횵뗄퓶뎤쯙뛈맽룟맀볆컊쳢튻퇹,뛔럾컱튵퓶볓횵뗍맀컊쳢튲폐듳솿뗄퇐뺿뫍맀쯣ꆣ늻춬뗄쫇,헢킩퇐뺿쎻폐쿱뛔릤튵퓶뎤쯙뛈룟맀뗄퇐뺿쓇퇹,돉릦뗘룸돶튻룶뇈맙랽춳볆룼뫃뗄맀쯣횵살ꆣ죧짏쯹쫶,떼훂헢훖쪧냜ퟮ룹놾뗄풭틲쫇,좱짙럾컱튵퓶볓횵볆쯣쯹탨튪뗄ퟮ믹놾쫽뻝쇏ꆣ퓚컒맺,럾컱튵퓶볓횵뗍맀컊쳢뫜퓧틔잰틑뺭놻틢쪶떽,훁짙퓚튻킩볒횮볤퓧틑폐릲쪶ꆣ떫쫇뛔룃컊쳢뷸탐쇋좫쏦ꆢ쾵춳쳖싛뗄쫇WorldBank(1992)ꆣ룃놨룦쫇쫀뷧틸탐뾼달췅퓚훐맺뷸탐쪵뗘뾼달틔뫳킴돉뗄,쯼뛔훐맺춳볆훆뛈뗄쿖ힴ뫍컊쳢ퟷ쇋좫쏦뗄뷩짜뫍싛쫶,웤훐냼삨뛔럾컱튵퓶볓횵뗍맀벰웤풭틲뗄쳖싛ꆣ뫋쯣랶캧늻좫뫍늿럖럾컱뚨볛맽뗍떼훂쇋훐맺럾컱튵퓶볓횵뗍맀뗄볙쮵,뗚튻듎퓚헢샯뗃떽쇋좫쏦뗄싛쫶ꆣ떫쫇듋쿮퇐뺿쎻폐뛔훐맺럾컱튵퓶볓횵뷸탐훘탂맀볆ꆣ뛔훐맺럾컱튵퓶볓횵뗚튻듎뷸탐훘탂맀볆뗄쫇Keidel(1992),쯻냑1987쓪훐맺맺쓚짺닺ퟜ횵짏뗷55%,웤뫳,Keidel(1994)냑짏뗷럹뛈붵뗍떽34%ꆣ34%뗄짏뗷냼삨116%뗄튻훂탔뗷헻ꆢ1117%뗄랶캧뗷헻뫍1813%뗄맀볛뗷헻ꆣꋚ헢샯뗄맀볛뗷헻늻쫇횱뷓헫뛔짏쏦쳡떽뗄늿럖럾컱뚨볛맽뗍쯹ퟶ뗄뗷헻,뛸쫇헫뛔컒맺늻뫏샭뗄쿠뛔볛룱(룷탐튵볤뗄쿠뛔뇈볛)뛸뷸탐뗄뗷헻ꆣ뗷헻뗄탐튵늻뷶뷶쿞폚뗚죽닺튵ꆣꋙ헢벸뗣늻춬돌뛈뗘퓚컒맺쒿잰폃살볆쯣늻뇤볛럾컱튵퓶볓횵뗄웤쯻볛룱횸쫽(볻뇭1)쪱튲돉솢ꆣꋚ맘폚Keidel뛔훐맺GDP뷸탐쿲짏뗷헻쪱듦퓚뗄컊쳢,닎볻탭쿜뒺(1999)뗚25헂ꆣ55' 1994-2007 China Academic Journal Electronic Publishing House. All rights reserved.
퓀쾣쏷ꆢ헅쫯맢:컒맺럾컱튵퓶볓횵뗄뫋쯣컊쳢쿖폐퇐뺿훐뛔럾컱튵퓶볓횵뷸탐듳럹뛈뗷헻뗄쇭튻룶퇐뺿쫇Maddison(1998)ꆣ룃퇐뺿뗄뗷헻뛔쿳쫇헻룶럇컯훊짺닺늿쏅ꆣ퓚좱짙뺫좷뗷헻쯹탨튪뗄풭쪼쫽뻝뗄쳵볾쿂,쯻닉폃뇈뷏볲떥뗄뗷헻랽램ꆣꋙ쫗쿈붫맺볒춳볆뻖맀볆릫늼뗄1987쓪럇컯훊짺닺늿쏅퓶볓횵짏뗷1Π3ꋚ,좻뫳폃럇컯훊짺닺늿쏅듓튵헟죋쫽뗄퓶뎤싊췢췆돶1987쓪틔췢쓪럝룃탐튵뗄퓶볓횵ꆣMaddison뛔럇컯훊짺닺늿쏅퓶볓횵뗷헻쪹폃뗄쫇췢췆램,룃훖랽램횻쫇맀쯣럇컯훊짺닺늿쏅늻뇤볛퓶볓횵,뛸늻짦벰쿖볛퓶볓횵ꆣ쇭췢,폃듓튵헟죋쫽뗄뇤뮯췢췆1987쓪틔췢뗄늻뇤볛퓶볓횵,쪵볊짏듓뚨틥짏럱뚨쇋럇컯훊짺닺늿쏅샍뚯짺닺싊뗄뇤뮯ꆣ웤뷡맻쫇,죧맻컒맺럇컯훊짺닺늿쏅뗄샍뚯짺닺싊쫇튻횱짏짽뗄뮰,Maddison뗄맀볆붫룟맀1987쓪틔잰퓶볓횵,뗍맀1987쓪횮뫳뗄퓶볓횵ꆣ퓚웤쯻쳵볾튻뚨뗄쟩뿶쿂,뗚죽닺튵퓚헻룶맺쓚짺닺ퟜ횵훐뗄뇈훘퓚1987쓪틔잰놻룟맀,뛸횮뫳놻뗍맀ꆣ쿠랴,죧맻컒맺럇컯훊짺닺늿쏅뗄샍뚯짺닺싊쫇튻횱쿂붵뗄,붫믡뗃떽쿠랴뗄뷡맻ꆣMaddison뻜뻸뷓쫜맺볒춳볆뻖맀볆쫽뻝쯹쿔쪾뗄뗚죽닺튵샍뚯짺닺싊뷏룟퓶뎤싊뗄뷡맻(Maddison,1998,뗚151튳)ꆣ룹뻝맺볒춳볆뻖릫늼쫽뻝쯹볆쯣뗄뗚죽닺튵훐룷탐튵샍뚯짺닺싊,돽ꆰ웤쯻ꆱ탐튵틔췢,20쫀볍90쓪듺뻹돊쿖헽퓶뎤뗄쟷쫆,폐킩탐튵뗄퓶뎤싊뫜룟(뇭3)ꆣ컒쏇늻쓜쮵듋뷡맻췪좫늻쫜쫽뻝ힼ좷탔뗄펰쿬,떫쫇듓훐헒돶쪹샍뚯짺닺싊룟맀뗄틲쯘튲쫇늻죝틗뗄ꆣꋛ쪹폃듓튵헟죋쫽뗄뇤뮯쟷쫆맀볆뗚죽닺튵뗄늻뇤볛퓶볓횵뗄ퟷ램늻뷶퓚쫽솿뺭볃쪷퇐뺿훐뎣볻,뛸쟒퓚튻킩맺볒(냼삨튻킩OECD맺볒)쿖탐뗄맺쏱뺭볃뫋쯣훐튲뿉틔뾴떽ꆣ헢퇹ퟷ램훷튪쫇돶폚볆쯣럾컱볛룱횸쫽삧쓑,뛸늻쫇뗚죽닺튵뗄샍뚯짺닺싊헦뗄놣돖늻뇤ꆣ폐맘뗚죽닺튵샍뚯짺닺싊뗄퇐뺿쿔쪾룃탐튵뗄샍뚯짺닺싊쫇짏짽뗄(Fuchs,1969,뗚10튳)ꆣ쇭췢,퓚쪹폃볛룱횸쫽쯵복볆쯣뗚죽닺튵늻뇤볛퓶볓횵뗄맺볒훐,뗚죽닺튵샍뚯짺닺싊튲돊쿖짏짽쟷쫆,헢튻뗣훁짙퓚햽뫳뗄죕놾돉솢ꆣ죧맻컒맺럾컱튵샍뚯짺닺싊튲쫇튻횱짏짽뗄뮰,쓇쎴평Maddison맀볆뗃떽뗄20쫀볍90쓪듺뗚죽닺튵퓶볓횵퓚헻룶맺쓚짺닺ퟜ횵훐뇈훘쿂붵뗄뷡싛(평1989쓪뗄3114%쿂붵떽1995쓪2919%)룼듳뿉쓜쫇평폚쯻뗄볙뚨쳵볾퓬돉뗄ꆣퟮ뫳,펦떱쳡쟫힢틢뗄쫇,벴쪹폃듓튵헟죋쫽뗄뇤뚯췢췆헻룶럾컱튵늻뇤볛퓶볓횵,튲뿉틔폐솽훖ퟷ램ꆣ튻훖쫇뛔헻룶럾컱튵튻듎탔췢췆,좡뗃헻룶럾컱튵뗄늻뇤볛퓶볓횵ꆣ쇭튻훖쫇쫗쿈뛔헻룶럾컱튵쯹쫴룷룶킡탐튵럖뇰폃듓튵헟죋쫽뇤뚯췢췆,좻뫳퓙냑룷룶킡탐튵뗄췢췆뷡맻볓ퟜ뗃떽헻룶럾컱튵늻뇤볛퓶볓횵ꆣ잰튻훖랽램췪좫업돽쇋헻룶럾컱튵샍뚯짺닺싊뇤뮯뗄뿉쓜ꆣ떫쫇뫳튻훖죔좻놣쇴쇋헻룶럾컱튵샍뚯짺닺싊뇤뚯뗄뿉쓜ꆣ틲캪헻룶럾컱튵샍뚯짺닺싊뗈폚웤쯹쫴룷룶킡럾컱탐튵샍뚯짺닺싊뗄볓좨욽뻹,좨훘캪룷킡탐튵듓튵죋풱퓚헻룶럾컱튵훐뗄뇈훘ꆣ틲듋,벴쪹룷룶킡럾컱탐튵뗄샍뚯짺닺싊놣돖늻뇤,죧맻샍뚯짺닺싊룟뗄킡탐튵퓚헻룶럾컱튵훐뗄뻍튵뇈훘짏짽뗄뮰,헻룶럾컱튵샍뚯짺닺싊튲믡짏짽ꆣMaddion뛔컒맺럇컯훊짺닺늿쏅퓶볓횵뗄맀볆쪹폃뗄쫇잰튻훖랽램ꆣ폫Keidel뫍Maddison뗄뗷헻늻춬,탭쿜뒺ꆢ샮컄헾(1998)헫뛔럾컱튵훐뗄튻룶킡탐튵ꆪꆪꆪ랿뗘닺튵뗄퓶볓횵뫋쯣뷸탐쇋쿪쾸뗄퇐뺿ꆣ룃퇐뺿늻뷶뛔쿖탐뗄랿뗘닺퓶볓횵뫋쯣훐듦퓚뗄뫋쯣랶캧늻좫뫍랿컝ퟢ뷰뗍맀뗈컊쳢뷸탐쇋돤럖쳖싛,뛸쟒뛔1996쓪랿뗘닺퓶볓횵룸돶쇋죽훖늻춬뗄맀볆횵,늢뷸탐쇋뇈뷏ꆣ뾼싇떽럾컱튵냼삨훖샠랱뛠뗄킡탐튵,쎿튻킡탐튵쿠닮뷏듳뗄쳘뗣,뛔폚늻춬탐튵쪹폃늻춬뗄랽램살맀볆늻뇤볛퓶볓횵,믲헟쮵,뛔럾컱튵쯹쫴룷룶탐튵럖뇰뷸탐뛀솢뗄뗷헻뇈뛔헻룶럾컱튵뷸탐튻듎탔뗷헻(죧Maddison쯹ퟶ뗄),웤쫕믱뿉쓜룼듳ꆣ헢튲쫇컒쏇뷱뫳퓚맀쯣컒맺럾컱튵퓶볓횵쪱튻룶펦떱ퟱ톭뗄풭퓲ꆣ듓헢룶틢틥짏붲,탭쿜뒺ꆢ샮컄헾뗄퇐뺿(1998)쫇튻룶럇뎣뫃뗄샽ퟓꆣퟮ뫳뇘탫쳡떽뗄쫇,맺볒춳볆뻖뛔틑뺭릫늼뗄뗚죽닺튵퓶볓횵튲퓸뺭뷸탐맽뗷헻뫍탞헽,룃뗷헻쫇룹뻝뗚죽닺튵웕닩뷡맻뷸탐뗄,뗷헻뷡맻랴펳퓚ꆶ훐맺춳볆쓪본ꆷ1995쓪냦짏ꆣ틲듋,냑룃쓪본뗄1994쓪냦뫍1995쓪냦뷸탐뇈뷏뿉틔쇋뷢뗷헻뗄랽쿲뫍럹뛈ꆣ뗷헻ힷ쯝떽1978쓪,웤훐훷튪뛔짌튵뫍럇컯훊짺닺늿쏅뷸탐쇋뗷헻,잰헟뗄짏뗷럹뛈캪60%ퟳ폒,뫳헟뗄짏뗷럹뛈틲쓪럝늻춬뛸늻춬,듳훂퓚10%ꆪ20%ퟳ폒(탭쿜뒺,1999,뗚10헂)ꆣ쯄ꆢ럾컱튵퓶볓횵뗍맀뛔뺭볃럖컶뗄펰쿬쪹폃럾컱튵퓶볓횵맙랽쫽뻝쯹뷸탐뗄뺭볃럖컶,웤뷡맻뻹쫜쫽뻝늻췪짆뗄펰쿬ꆣ퓚뗚튻뷚,컒쏇틑뺭맛달쇋ꋙ쿪볻Maddison(1998)156튳힢쫍뗄ퟮ뫳튻뛎ꆣꋚ헢샯뗄1987쓪뗚죽닺튵퓶볓횵뗄맙랽맀볆횵틑뺭쫇맺볒춳볆뻖룹뻝죽닺웕닩뷡맻짏뗷쇋뗄쫽뻝ꆣꋛ샍뚯짺닺싊쫇늻뇤볛퓶볓횵뫍듓튵헟죋쫽뗄뇈싊ꆣ틲듋틽웰샍뚯짺닺싊룟맀뗄뿉쓜탔횻폐솽훖,튻쫇럖ퟓ뗄늻뇤볛퓶볓횵훰쓪룟맀,뛾쫇럖쒸뗄듓튵헟죋쫽훰쓪뗍맀ꆣ떫쫇쎻폐폐솦뗄횤뻝횤쏷헢솽훖뿉쓜뗄랢짺ꆣ56' 1994-2007 China Academic Journal Electronic Publishing House. All rights reserved.
2002쓪뗚12웚뗚죽닺튵퓶볓횵퓶뎤쯙뛈욫뗍,쯵복횸쫽짏짽럹뛈욫룟뗄쿖쿳,늢볲떥뗘쳖싛쇋룃쿖쿳늿럖뗘쫇평폚쫽뻝짏뗄컊쳢쯹퓬돉뗄ꆣ틔쿂컒쏇춨맽뛔쪹폃맙랽쫽뻝쯹뗃럖컶뷡맻뗄뷸튻늽맛달,쳖싛럾컱튵춳볆짏뗄좱쿝뛔뺭볃럖컶뷡맻뗄펰쿬ꆣ듓맺볒춳볆뻖릫늼뗄쫽뻝살뾴,20쫀볍60쓪듺돵웚틔잰,내쿖볛볆쯣뗄뗚죽닺튵퓶볓횵퓚헻룶맺쓚짺닺ퟜ횵훐뗄뇈훘싔폐짏짽,듋뫳돖탸쿂붵,횱떽20쫀볍80쓪듺돵캪횹(뇭2)ꆣ듓20쫀볍80쓪듺돵뾪쪼훰붥짏짽,떽1990쓪잰뫳믖뢴떽붨맺돵웚뗄쮮욽,횮뫳믹놾뒦폚춣훍뗄ힴ첬,횱떽쿖퓚ꆣ내늻뇤볛볆쯣뗄뗚죽닺튵뇈훘뗄뇤뮯쟷쫆싔폐늻춬ꆣ헻룶볆뮮뺭볃쪱웚,돽20쫀볍50쓪듺쒩뫍60쓪듺돵욫룟틔췢,믹놾퓚22%떽23%뗄랶캧쓚늨뚯ꆣ룄룯뾪럅뫳,뗚죽닺튵뇈훘뾪쪼짏짽,1989쓪듯떽ퟮ룟뗣뗄3013%,웤뫳솬쓪쿂붵,뗈붵훁1995쓪뗄26%ퟳ폒횮뫳,믹놾캬돖늻뇤,횱떽쿖퓚ꆣ뇭2컒맺맺쓚짺닺ퟜ횵훐뗄뗚튻ꆢ뛾ꆢ죽닺튵뗄뇈훘(%)뛈쓪럝쿖볛늻뇤볛(1987쓪볛룱늻뇤볛(릤튵퓶볓횵뗄퓶뎤쯙)내컩쿾펥맀볆볆쯣)뗚튻닺튵뗚뛾닺튵뗚죽닺튵뗚튻닺튵뗚뛾닺튵뗚죽닺튵뗚튻닺튵뗚뛾닺튵뗚죽닺튵19525015201928167211819191067101515171619554613241429136618121520186117191119121960231444153211411429192817341341182319196537193511271052152410231548103016211519703215401524134619311421174312361820101980301148152114331643172217311946152116198528144311281530104214271729154313271219902710411631132513441929182613421631101995201548183017171355192618181453112815199719115010301915185719261318165012311120001614501233141317591726162001151251113316131160132616ꆡꆡ쫽뻝살풴:쿖볛맺쓚짺닺ퟜ횵벰웤횸쫽럖뇰살ퟔꆶ훐맺춳볆쓪본ꆷ룷쓪냦,컩쿾펥맀볆릤튵퓶볓횵(1987쓪볛룱)살ퟔWu(2002)ꆣ헢퇹뗄맛달뷡맻횵뗃힢틢뗄폐솽뗣ꆣ웤튻,죧맻짡웺훐볤뇤뮯,떥뻍20쫀볍60쓪듺돵뫍쿖퓚뇈뷏뗄뮰,럾컱튵햼헻룶맺쓚짺닺ퟜ횵훐뗄뇈훘퓚헻헻40쓪샯믹놾놣돖늻뇤ꆣ웤뛾쫇내늻뇤볛퓶볓횵볆쯣뗄뗚죽닺튵뇈훘퓚20쫀볍90쓪듺뗄잰냫웚돊쿖쏷쿔뗄쿂붵쟷쫆ꆣ헢솽룶뷡싛뻹늻춬돌뛈뗘쫜떽쯹쪹폃쫽뻝뗄펰쿬ꆣ뺭퇩쿔쪾,뗚죽닺튵퓚헻룶뺭볃훐뗄뇈훘,컞싛폃맺쓚짺닺ퟜ횵뮹쫇폃듓튵헟죋쫽살뫢솿,폐쯦죋뻹쫕죫뗄퓶뎤뛸짏짽뗄쟷쫆ꆣ헢룶튻냣탔맦싉늻뷶퓚튻맺뗄뎤웚뺭볃랢햹맽돌훐뿉틔맛닢떽,죧맻냑늻춬죋뻹쫕죫맺볒뷸탐뇈뷏튲뿉틔랢쿖ꆣ죧맻컒쏇뿉틔냑헢훖쟷쫆뾴돉튻냣맦싉뗄뮰,쓇쎴짏쏦뗄뷡맻뫜뿉쓜쫇평폚쫽뻝뗄컊쳢쯹떼훂,뛸늻쫇컒맺닺튵뷡릹뗄쪵볊뇤뮯,믲헟훁짙뿉틔쮵,컒맺뗚죽닺튵뗄뇈훘퓚맽좥뷼냫룶쫀볍믹놾놣돖늻뇤뗄뷡싛늿럖뗘쫜떽룃닺튵퓶볓횵뗍맀뗄펰쿬ꆣ폫춬뗈쫕죫뗄웤쯻랢햹훐맺볒쿠뇈,컒맺뗚죽닺튵뇈훘맽뗍뗄쿖쿳쫇컒맺럾컱튵퓶볓횵뗍맀뗄쇭튻쳥쿖ꆣ쫀뷧틸탐내죋뻹맺쓚짺닺ퟜ횵뗄룟뗍냑룷맺뮮럖돉뗍쫕죫맺ꆢ훐뗈욫쿂쫕죫맺ꆢ훐뗈욫짏쫕죫맺뫍룟쫕죫맺쯄훖샠탍,컒맺쫴폚뗍쫕죫맺볒,1996쓪뗍쫕죫맺볒뗚죽닺튵퓶볓횵햼헻룶맺쓚짺닺ퟜ횵뇈훘뗄욽뻹횵,냼삨훐맺뫍펡뛈퓚쓚쫇37%,늻냼삨훐맺뫍펡뛈퓚쓚캪42%,컒맺뫍펡뛈뗄뇈훘럖뇰캪31%뫍43%(WorldBank,1998,뗚180-183튳),컒맺뇈펡뛈뗍12룶냙럖뗣믲헟뗍붫뷼40%ꆣ퓙살뾴뗚뛾뗣,내늻뇤볛퓶볓횵볆쯣뗄뗚죽닺튵뇈훘퓚20쫀볍90쓪듺잰냫웚돊쿖쏷쿔뗄쿂붵쟷쫆ꆣ헢튻뷡맻훷튪평쫽뻝컊쳢퓬돉ꆣ컒쏇횪뗀,릤튵늻뇤볛퓶볓횵쫇춨맽ꆰ늻뇤볛ꆱ볆쯣뗃떽,뛸뗚죽닺튵훐뛠쫽킡탐튵뗄퓶볓횵쫇춨맽볛룱횸쫽쯵복램볆쯣뗄ꆣ릤튵퓶볓횵뗄쿖탐볆쯣랽램룟맀쇋릤튵퓶볓횵뗄퓶뎤쯙뛈,퓚웤쯻쳵볾늻뇤57' 1994-2007 China Academic Journal Electronic Publishing House. All rights reserved.
퓀쾣쏷ꆢ헅쫯맢:컒맺럾컱튵퓶볓횵뗄뫋쯣컊쳢뗄쟩뿶쿂,릤튵퓚헻룶늻뇤볛퓶볓횵훐뗄뇈훘튲늻뿉뇜쏢뗘놻룟맀ꆣ컩쿾펥(Wu,2002)뛔릤튵늻뇤볛퓶볓횵뗄훘탂맀볆놻죏캪믹놾뻀헽쇋맙랽춳볆뛔릤튵퓶볓횵퓶뎤쯙뛈뗄룟맀,퓚듋컒쏇폃컩쿾펥뗄맀볆횵훘탂볆쯣쇋맺쓚짺닺ퟜ횵훐뗚튻ꆢ뛾ꆢ죽닺튵뗄뇈훘ꆣ웤뷡맻쫇,뗚죽닺튵뗄뇈훘쯤좻퓚1995쓪돶쿖쏷쿔뗄쿂붵,떫퓚1990쓪떽1997쓪횮볤믹놾캬돖퓚31%ퟳ폒늻뇤(뇭2)ꆣ뇭3럾컱튵룷탐튵샍뚯짺닺싊벰웤쓪욽뻹퓶뎤싊샍뚯짺닺싊(1990쓪볛룱,풪)쓪뻹퓶뎤싊(%)쓪럝1990199520001990ꆪ20001990ꆪ19951995ꆪ2000뗘훊뾱닩튵ꆢ쮮샻맜샭튵3,515138,9251413,3671814132015814붻춨퓋쫤ꆢ닖뒢벰폊뗧ꆢ춨탅튵8,0951211,0661917,945108136151011엺랢뫍쇣쫛쎳틗닍틻튵7,034166,686148,74910212-110515뷰죚ꆢ놣쿕튵57,7581766,3501376,47616218218219랿뗘닺튵74,7151986,4741091,48713210310111짧믡럾컱튵5,9381710,3411411,622146191117214컀짺쳥폽뫍짧믡뢣샻튵3,494136,824188,864139181413514뷌폽ꆢ컄뮯틕쫵벰맣능뗧펰뗧쫓튵2,896134,750107,286189171014819뿆톧퇐뺿뫍ퟛ뫏벼쫵럾컱튵5,032108,6021315,04917111611131118맺볒믺맘ꆢ헾떳믺맘뫍짧믡췅쳥5,359128,5311711,59019810917613웤쯻탐튵322172511329310-110-419311ꆡꆡ쫽뻝살풴:쿖볛퓶볓횵ꆢ퓶볓횵횸쫽틔벰듓튵죋풱쫽럖뇰살ퟔꆶ훐맺춳볆쓪본ꆷ룷쓪냦ꆣ샻폃맙랽릫늼뗄뗚죽닺튵럖탐튵퓶볓횵뫍듓튵헟죋쫽뗄쫽뻝뷸탐탐튵볤샍뚯짺닺싊퓶뎤싊뇈뷏럖컶쪱뗃떽뗄뷡맻(뇭3),튲쇮죋뛔쯹쪹폃쫽뻝닺짺뮳틉ꆣ웤훐ퟮ죃죋럑뷢뗄쫇,뷰죚놣쿕튵뗄샍뚯짺닺싊퓶뎤싊돽쇋싔룟폚엺랢뫍쇣쫛쎳틗닍틻튵,틔벰랿뗘닺튵틔췢,풶풶뗘뗍폚웤쯻탐튵ꆣ헢퇹뗄뷡맻죃죋럑뷢뗄풭틲쫇,맽좥뗄20쓪샯,뷰죚놣쿕튵,폈웤쫇뷰죚튵컼틽쇋ퟮ룟톧샺뗄죋닅,춬쪱캪쇋쪵쿖룷럖횧믺릹(죧럖탐)볤믲늻춬뷰죚믺릹(죧룷틸탐)볤뗄뮥솪췸,룷듳뷰죚믺릹퓚춨탅짨놸짏뷸탐쇋듳솿뗄짨놸춶,헢튻쟐컞틉룸룃탐튵샍뚯짺닺싊뗄퓶뎤듸살폅쫆ꆣ틲듋,뷰죚럾컱튵샍뚯짺닺싊뗄퓶뎤쯙뛈듳듳뗍폚뗚죽닺튵뗄웤쯻탐튵뗄춳볆뷡맻,쪵퓚쇮죋럑뷢ꆣ늻뿉럱죏,떼훂뷰죚놣쿕튵샍뚯짺닺싊퓶뎤싊뗍뗄풭틲훐,폐럇쫽뻝뗄틲쯘ꆣ헾뢮붵뗍듻뿮샻싊,쳡룟듦뿮샻쾢,틔벰틸탐듴헊뗈뗈뻹뿉틔복짙룃탐튵퓶볓횵,ퟮ훕떼훂샍뚯짺닺싊뗄퓶뎤맽뗍ꆣ떫쫇,헢킩헦뗄쓜릻췪좫뷢쫍뷰죚놣쿕튵샍뚯짺닺싊쿠뛔욫뗍뗄쿖쿳싰?뛔듋탨튪뷸튻늽뗄퇐뺿ꆣ컥ꆢ룄뷸컒맺럾컱튵춳볆뗄솽뗣붨틩듓짏쫶럖컶뿉틔횪뗀,퓶볓횵뗄뗍맀쫇컒맺럾컱튵뫋쯣듦퓚뗄훷튪컊쳢,쯼살풴폚컒맺춳볆훆뛈훐뗄뫋쯣랶캧늻좫뫍뛔늿럖럾컱볆볛맽뗍솽룶뇗뛋,뛸쟒뗍맀뗄돌뛈틑뺭듯떽쇋펰쿬뺭볃럖컶뷡맻뿉탅탔뗄뗘늽ꆣ틲듋,캪쇋룼ힼ좷뗘샭뷢컒맺럾컱튵,캪쇋룸헾뢮뻶닟뫍뺭볃럖컶쳡릩룼볓뿉뾿뗄쫽뻝,룄짆컒맺럾컱튵춳볆뗄릤ퟷ쫆퓚뇘탐ꆣ맘폚죧뫎룄짆컒맺럾컱튵퓶볓횵뗄뫋쯣,컒쏇쳡돶틔쿂솽뗣붨틩ꆣ뗚튻,볓잿럾컱튵뗄춳볆뗷닩ꆣ컒맺뗚죽닺튵퓶볓횵뫋쯣듦퓚뗄ퟮ룹놾컊쳢쫇좱짙쿪쾸뗄풭쪼쇏,돩퇹뗷닩뫍웕닩쫇뷢뻶럾컱튵춳볆쇏놡죵뗄ퟮ폐킧쫖뛎ꆣ쯼늻뷶붫듓룹놾짏뷢뻶뫋쯣랶캧늻좫뗄컊쳢,춬쪱뛔뷢뻶늿럖럾컱볆볛맽뗍뫍샍뚯헟놨돪춳볆틅슩뗈컊쳢튲붫웰ퟅ훘듳뗄ퟷ폃ꆣ늻뿉럱죏,컒맺뗄럾컱튵춳볆퓚룄룯뾪럅횮뫳뗃떽쇋튻쾵쇐훘듳뗄룄짆,웤훐ퟮ뻟듺뇭탔뗄쫇퓚1993쓪컒맺뻙탐쇋쫗듎뗚죽닺튵웕닩,늢쟒좷솢쇋뛔뗚죽닺튵뷸탐뚨웚웕닩뗄훆뛈ꆣꋙ1993쓪뗚죽닺튵웕닩뮺뷢쇋럾컱튵퓶볓횵ꋙ룹뻝맺볒웕닩훆뛈뗄맦뚨,쎿럪쒩캲쫽ퟖ캪3뗄쓪럝뛔뗚죽닺튵뷸탐웕닩ꆣ폐맘쿪쾸쟩뿶,닎볻맺볒춳볆뻖춳볆짨볆맜샭쮾(1999)뗚4튳ꆣ58' 1994-2007 China Academic Journal Electronic Publishing House. All rights reserved.
2002쓪뗚12웚뫋쯣뛔믹뒡쫽뻝웈쟐탨튪뗄좼쎼횮벱,듳럹뛈뗘룄짆쇋럾컱튵퓶볓횵뗄맀쯣ꆣ뷱뫳10쓪튻듎뗚죽닺튵웕닩튲붫믡웰떽춬퇹뗄ퟷ폃ꆣ떫쫇,평폚웕닩뗄욵뛈뗍,솽듎웕닩횮볤쿠룴뗄쪱볤뎤,틔벰훐맺뺭볃뷡릹헽뒦폚벱뻧뇤뮯쪱웚뗈풭틲,10쓪튻듎뗄죽닺웕닩훆뛈,늻뿉쓜듓룹놾짏뷢뻶럾컱튵퓶볓횵뫋쯣좱짙믹뒡쫽뻝뗄컊쳢ꆣ춨뎣쟩뿶쿂,듓웕닩뷡맻뗃떽맘폚뷡릹뫍뇈싊뗄쫽뻝퓚쿂튻듎웕닩횮잰놻폃폚맀쯣럾컱튵뗄퓶볓횵ꆣ떫쫇,평폚컒맺뺭볃뇤뮯뗄쯙뛈뿬,헢킩쫽뻝뫜쓑ힼ좷뗘랴펳맘폚럾컱튵룷룶뇤솿횮볤뗄맘쾵,샫웕닩쓪럝풽풶,헢튻쿖쿳뻍풽퇏훘ꆣ뗚뛾,쪹폃룷훖늻춬뗄랽램볆쯣럾컱튵훐룷룶킡탐튵뗄늻뇤볛퓶볓횵ꆣ퓚볆쯣럾컱튵늻뇤볛퓶볓횵짐늻듦퓚뷏캪샭쿫뗄맀쯣랽램뗄쟩뿶쿂,춬쪱쪹폃늻춬랽램닢쯣럾컱튵늻뇤볛퓶볓횵,뿉틔뇜쏢쒳튻훖랽램뿉쓜룸럾컱튵퓶뎤쯙뛈듸살뗄욫닮ꆣ헽죧짏컄틑뺭쳡떽뗄,틲캪뛠쫽럾컱늻뻟폐뫏쫊뗄쫽솿떥캻,쯹틔늻쓜쿱폐탎짌욷쓇퇹,춨맽뫏샭ힼ좷뗘뚨틥웤볛룱틔벰뇠훆볛룱횸쫽살맀볆늻뇤볛퓶볓횵ꆣ퓚맺쓚짺닺ퟜ횵맀쯣쪱폃살쯵복룷럾컱튵퓶볓횵뗄볛룱횸쫽뛠쫽쫇늻췗떱뗄ꆣ헢튻뗣퓚쯹폐맺볒뚼죧듋,컒맺튲늻샽췢ꆣ쒿잰,뛔폚룷훖럾컱늻뇤볛퓶볓횵뗄맀쯣,톧헟쏇뷸탐쇋듳솿뗄퇐뺿,늢쳡돶쇋탭뛠뫍쿖탐맺쏱뺭볃뫋쯣쳥쾵뫋쯣풭퓲늻춬뗄뫋쯣랽램(Griliches,1992;Berndtetc.,1998),춬쪱뷸탐쇋펦폃탔뗄쪵횤퇐뺿,떫퇐뺿뛔쿳뛠캪쏀맺ꆣ펦폃헢킩탂뗄랽램뛔컒맺럾컱튵퓶볓횵뷸탐뎢쫔탔뗄맀쯣쫇뇘튪뗄,퇐뺿뷡맻뿉틔쳡릩폫맙랽맀쯣쿠뇈뷏뗄맀쯣뷡맻,듓뛸췚뻲돶쿖폐럾컱튵퓶볓횵맀쯣뿉쓜듦퓚뗄욫닮ꆣ닎뾼컄쿗릵뿚쏴탐,1979ꆶ:폐맘럾컱쯵복횸쫽뗄훮컊쳢ꆷꆶ,맺쏱뺭볃뫋쯣벾뾯ꆷ,풭죕놾뺭볃웳뮭쳼뺭볃퇐뺿쯹,뗚52뻭(죕폯)ꆣ맺볒춳볆뻖,1999ꆶ:맺볒춳볆뗷닩훆뛈(1998)ꆷꆣ맺볒춳볆뻖춳볆짨볆맜샭쮾,1999ꆶ:춳볆훆뛈랽램컄볾톡뇠:1994ꆪ1998ꆷꆣ탭쿜뒺,1999ꆶ:훐맺맺쏱뺭볃뫋쯣샭싛랽램폫쪵볹ꆷ,훐맺춳볆돶냦짧ꆣ탭쿜뒺,2000aꆶ:90쓪듺컒맺럾컱튵랢햹쿠뛔훍뫳뗄풭틲럖컶ꆷꆶ,맜샭쫀뷧ꆷ뗚6웚ꆣ탭쿜뒺,2000bꆶ:훐맺맺쓚짺닺ퟜ횵뫋쯣ꆷ,놱뺩듳톧돶냦짧ꆣ탭쿜뒺ꆢ샮컄헾,1998ꆶ:훐맺랿뗘닺튵뫋쯣뗄쿖ힴꆢ듦퓚뗄컊쳢뫍룄룯짨쿫ꆷꆶ,퇐뺿닎뾼쇏ꆷ뗚54웚ꆣ훐맺짧믡뿆톧풺뺭볃퇐뺿쯹뫪맛뿎쳢ퟩ,2000ꆶ:뫋쯣탔얤쟺ꆢ뷡릹탔춨쯵폫훆뛈탔헏낭ꆪꆪꆪ떱잰훐맺뫪맛뺭볃럖컶ꆷꆶ,뺭볃퇐뺿ꆷ뗚9웚ꆣBerndt,ErnstR.,,,ZviGriliches,,1998,PriceIndexesforMedicalCareGoodsandService:anOverviewofMeasurementIssues,NBERWorkingPaper,,VictorR.,1969,ProductionandProductivityintheServiceIndustries,NationalBureauofEconomicResearch,,RobertJ.,1996,ProblemintheMeasurementandPerformanceofService2SectorProductivityintheUnitedStates,,Zvied.,1992,OutputMeasurementintheServiceSectors,NBERStudiesinIncomeandWealth,,Chicago:,Zvi,1994,Productivity,R&D,andtheDataConstraint,AmericanEconomicReview,(March).Keidel,Albert,1992,HowBadlydoChinaꆯsNationalAccountsUnderestimateChinaꆯsGDP?RockCreekResearch,,Albert,1994,China:GNPPerCapita,WorldBank,-CHA,,Angus,1998,ChineseEconomicPerformanceintheLongRun,OECD,,,Ruoen(죎죴뛷),1995,ChinaꆯsManufacturingPerformanceinComparativePerspective,1980ꆪ1992,ResearchMemorandum581(GD220),GroningenGrowthandDevelopmentCentre,,1992,China:StatisticalSysteminTransition,Report95572CHA,Washington,.,,1998,WorldDevelopmentIndicators1998,TheWorldBank,Washington,,HarryX.(컩쿾펥),2002,MeasuringtheRealOutputofChineseIndustry1949ꆪ1997,ReviewofIncomeandWealth,48,June2002.(퓰죎뇠벭:횣붡)(킣뛔:ퟓ)59' 1994-2007 China Academic Journal Electronic Publishing House. All rights reserved.
OnEstimationofValueaddedofservicesectorinChinaYueXiming&ZhangShuguang(InstituteofEconomic,CASS)ꆯ,however,withoutexcep2tion,ꆯ,betterestimateofservicesectorꆯsvalueaddedinChinamainlydependsonimprovementofstatisticsandsurveysthatdesignedtorecordmanyaspectsofservicesec2tor,undercurrentcondition,however,westillhavealargeroomtoimproveestimatesofservicesectorꆯ:servicesector;valueadded;nationalaccounting;priceindexJELClassification:O140,E310,E200TheEffectofOpeningBSharesMarkettoDomesticInvestorsonMarketSegmentationWuWenfeng&Others(SchoolofManagement,ShanghaiJiaotongUniversity)ThestudyinvestigatestheeffectofopeningChinaꆯ,(shareslistedinHongKong),:informationdiffusion;marketsegmentation;integrationJELClassification:G15ChinaꆯsSmallDemand2Management2CustomizedMacroeconometricModelZhengChaoYu(SchoolofEconomics,RenminUniversityofChina)ThroughOLSestimatingthestandardIS2LM2ASmodelin1981ꆪ2001,thispaperattemptstobuildasmall2scaleannualmacro2econometricmodelofChinaꆯeconomy2CMAFMmodel,,thedynamicmultipliereffectsofChinaꆯ:IS2LM2ASmodel;macroeconometricmodel;historicsimulationJELClassification:C430,E130,E17091' 1994-2007 China Academic Journal Electronic Publishing House. All rights reserved.
