ꆡꆡꆡꆡ헾뢮짹폾ꆢ춶믺탔믵뇒돥믷폫만뚨믣싊뗄캬돖듷뷰욽ꆡ췲횾뫪3ꆡꆡ쓚죝쳡튪ꆡ퓚만뚨믣싊훆뛈쿂,헾뢮짹폾춨맽펰쿬릫훚뇡횵풤웚,튻뚨돌뛈짏뻶뚨쇋만뚨믣싊훆뛈뗄컈뚨탔ꆣ놾컄듓솽룶랽쏦퇐뺿쇋헾뢮짹폾뗄헢훖뻶뚨ퟷ폃ꆣ튻쫇볙짨믹놾뺭볃ힴ뿶늻뇤ꆢ컞췢늿돥믷,헾뢮짹폾뛔헾뢮훷뚯탔뇡횵탐캪뗄펰쿬;뛾쫇믹놾뺭볃ힴ뿶랢짺뇤뚯뫳,헾뢮짹폾뛔믵뇒돥믷ꆰퟔ컒쪵쿖ꆱ뗄뻶뚨펰쿬,뷸뛸럖컶헾뢮짹폾뚯첬뇤뮯뛔만뚨믣싊훆뛈캬돖뗄펰쿬ꆣ뷡싛쫇,뛔폚튻룶쫔춼캬돖만뚨믣싊훆뛈뗄헾뢮살쮵,쫷솢뫍놣돖튻룶잿헾뢮뗄탎쿳쫇훁맘훘튪뗄ꆣ맘볼듊ꆡ헾뢮짹폾ꆡ만뚨믣싊ꆡ춶믺탔돥믷ꆡ믵뇒캣믺ꆡꆡ20쫀볍쒩웚,맺볊뷰죚쇬폲솽룶뻙쫀훵쒿뗄틥컱뗄뿉쓜탔뗄에뛏,랴펳쇋헾뢮퓚릫훚탄쒿훐쫂볾뻹폫만뚨믣싊훆뛈ꋙ폐맘ꆣ튻쫇춳튻뗄얷훞뗄뿉탅뛈ꆣ퓚뫪맛뺭볃퇐뺿훐,춨뎣붫헾뢮럖캪잿믵뇒뗄떮짺,뺭맽뛠쓪헾훎폫뺭볃킭뗷,얷훞뗄만(tough)헾뢮뫍죵(weakösoft)헾뢮,잰헟늻쾧튻뚨믣싊믺훆췪돉웤샺쪷쪹쏼,쿲떥튻믵뇒쪵쿖쇋쟐듺볛,볡뚨뗘횴탐헾닟돐억,뫳헟퓲믡춨맽킧폃욽컈맽뛉,뇪횾ퟅ맺볊뺭볃튻쳥뮯뷸죫쇋튻룶탂뇈뷏톡퓱쳘뚨쪱웚뗄헾닟,늻쫜틔췹돐억뗄풼쫸ꆣ뷗뛎;뛾쫇1997쓪뚫퇇뷰죚캣믺뗄랢짺,뛔폚만떫컞싛잿헾뢮뮹쫇죵헾뢮,뚼쫇ힷ쟳킧폃ퟮ듳뗄뚨믣싊훆뛈쓜럱퓚놾룟뛈쇷뚯뗄쳵볾쿂캬돖,샭탔훷쳥,횻쫇헾닟쒿뇪욫뫃늻춬ꆣ퓚탅쾢늻췪좫늢듙뷸뺭볃뛠풪쒿뇪뗄쪵쿖퓙듎쳡돶쳴햽ꆣ뺡맜쟩뿶쿂,릫훚룹뻝쯹맛달뗄헾뢮탐캪,내헕튻뚨뗄쒿잰뗄퇐뺿횸돶만뚨믣싊훆뛈뻟폐샺쪷뻖쿞탔,볛횵뇪ힼ,뛔헾뢮쫴폚잿헾뢮(믲죵헾뢮)뗄룅싊컞램쫊펦뺭볃좫쟲뮯쳘뇰쫇뷰죚튻쳥뮯뗄쟷쫆,탎돉뗄에뛏,벴쫇헾뢮뗄짹폾ꆣ평폚룃에뛏펰쿬릫떫뫜뛠랢햹훐맺볒뗄쪵볹횤쏷,뢡뚯믣싊훆뛈뛔훚풤웚뗄탎돉틔벰릫훚뛔폚헾뢮헾닟뗄랴펦탐폚랢햹훐맺볒춬퇹뻟폐늻쫊펦탔ꆣ뛔폚쳘뚨뷗뛎캪,틲뛸뛔튻맺뗄헾닟톡퓱벰헾닟뗄ퟮ훕횴탐킧뗄헾뢮뛸퇔,놻뚯뗘럅웺만뚨믣싊훆뛈뗄듺볛쫇맻폐ퟅ훘튪펰쿬ꆣ뻞듳뗄ꆣ쯹틔죧뫎퓚튻뚨쪱웚캬돖만뚨뗄믣싊훆폐맘헾뢮짹폾컊쳢뗄퇐뺿,쫇20쫀볍80쓪뛈,돉캪맺볊뺭볃샭싛뗄잰퇘뿎쳢ꆣ놾컄쫔춼톡퓱듺샭탔풤웚볙짨뗃떽웕뇩죏춬ꆢ쟒늩?샭싛퓚뺭튻룶좫탂뗄쫓뷇,듓헾뢮짹폾뷇뛈,닉폃헾뢮폫릫볃톧훐뗃떽맣랺펦폃뗄믹뒡짏뾪쪼뷸탐뗄ꆣ퓧웚훚횮볤뗄늩?럖컶랽램,퇐뺿만뚨믣싊훆뛈뗄캬훷튪퇐뺿럢뇕뺭볃훐튻맺뗄춨믵엲헍뫍믵뇒헾닟돖컊쳢ꆣꆡꆡ3듷뷰욽:쓏뾪듳톧맺볊뺭볃퇐뺿쯹뢱쯹뎤ꆡ뷌쫚;췲횾뫪:튻ꆢ헾뢮짹폾:튻룶탂뗄럖컶쫓뷇쓏뾪듳톧맺볊뺭볃퇐뺿쯹ꆡ늩쪿짺ꆡ300071ꆣꋙ놾컄쯹횸뗄만뚨믣싊훆뛈,쫇맣틥룅쓮,벴돌뛈늻춬뗄뛔쳘뚨믵뇒믲믵뇒삺쏻틥볛횵뗄맦뚨,냼삨믵뇒뻖훆뛈ꆢ뚤힡믣싊헾뢮짹폾,쫇릫훚뛔폚헾뢮싄탐헾닟돐억믲믲뿉뗷헻욽볛뗄뚤힡믣싊,틔벰믣싊쒿뇪쟸훆뛈ꆣ쫀뷧뺭볃3ꆡ2000쓪뗚12웚ꆡꆤ10ꆤ' 1995-2003 Tsinghua Tongfang Optical Disc Co., Ltd. All rights reserved.
듷뷰욽ꆡ췲횾뫪ꆡꆡ컊쳢,죧Barro2Gorden믵뇒헾닟쒣탍(BarroandGorden,1983)ꆣ뾪럅뺭볃쳵볾쿂뗄쿠맘퇐뺿훷튪뛾ꆢ헾뢮짹폾ꆢ릫훚풤웚폫훷뚯탔뇡횵닠훘폚퇐뺿맺볊뫏ퟷ폫헾닟킭뗷훐뗄짹폾폫뿉탅뛈컊쳢,맘폚믣싊훆뛈뗄퇐뺿퓲쫇90쓪듺틔살훰캪웊컶헾뢮짹폾뛔폚헾뢮뻶닟뫍릫훚풤웚뗄늽햹뾪뗄,훷튪싛횤춬뢡뚯믣싊쿠뇈,톡퓱만뚨믣펰쿬,컒쏇뛔Barro-Gorden믵뇒헾닟쒣탍뷸탐싊폐훺폚쳡짽헾뢮짹폾ꆣ풭틲퓚폚룃훆뛈뻟폐볍볲떥췘햹뫍뇤탎,춨맽볓죫릺싲솦욽볛쳵볾뫍킡싉ퟷ폃,쓜릻돉캪뫪맛컈뚨헾닟뗄ꆰ쏻틥쎪ꆱ맺볙짨,붫헾뢮뗄뻶닟듓춨믵엲헍싊쮮욽컊쳢(Sachs,1997),늢폐훺폚퓶잿탅쾢뒫뗝뗄춸쏷뛈뮯캪뛔믣싊쮮욽(뇡횵폫럱)뗄톡퓱;춬쪱캪쇋춻(Herrendorf,1999;Canavan,1997)ꆣ뛔헾뢮짹폾돶헾뢮헾닟톡퓱뗄쪵훊,퓝쪱뫶싔췢늿돥믷,듓뛸죧뫎ퟷ폃폚만뚨믣싊훆뛈,죧뫎펰쿬릫훚풤웚뫍퇐뺿췪좫좡뻶폚헾뢮뗄훷뚯탔뇡횵탐캪ꆣ룃훆뛈뗄캬돖,퓲짙폐퇐뺿ꆣ쫂쪵짏,만뚨믣싊훆쒣탍훐,헾뢮뗄ퟜ킧폃캪룃헾뢮퓚캻웚쓚룷뛈뗄폅쫆뗃틔랢믓뗄튻룶훘튪뗄잰쳡쫇헾뢮좷쪵n뻟폐캬돖만뚨믣싊뗄풸췻,늢쓜돉릦쪵쪩ꆣ틲듋첽웚킧폃쳹쿖횮뫍,벴U=6∆tWt,웤훐∆캪헾뢮t=0쳖헾뢮짹폾뫍믣싊훆뛈톡퓱컊쳢뗄뫋탄뗄쳹쿖틲ퟓꆣ헾뢮뗄떥뷗뛎킧폃캪닺돶퓶뎤폫컯,펦룃듓헾뢮짹폾폫만뚨믣싊뗄뿉캬돖돶랢,퇐뺿볈뚨뗄볛컈뚨뗄몯쫽:짹폾쮮욽죧뫎펰쿬만뚨믣싊뗄캬돖,듓뛸뷸튻늽W1t=-Π2t+b(yt-y)(1)펰쿬헾뢮짹폾ퟔ짭뗄랢햹ꆣ2웤훐,Πt쫇룃웚뗄쪵볊춨믵엲헍싊ꋚ,yt쫇룃퇐뺿헾뢮짹폾뛔폚만뚨믣싊뗄캬돖컊쳢,튲웚뗄닺돶퓶뎤싊,y쫇룃맺뗄돤럖뻍튵닺돶퓶뎤폐훺폚췘뿭춶믺탔믵뇒돥믷샭싛퇐뺿뗄쮼슷ꆣ듓싊,쾵쫽쫇헾뢮뢳폨춨믵컈뚨뗄좨훘,랴펳헾뢮캬춶믺탔믵뇒돥믷샭싛뗄랢햹살뾴,퓧웚뗄Krug2돖춨믵컈뚨뗄뻶탄,듺뇭ퟅ헾뢮뗄헦쪵샠탍,b=man2Flood2Garber쒣탍쎻폐뾼싇헾뢮뗄킧폃톡0틢캶ퟅ헾뢮쫇죵헾뢮,틔컈뚨컯볛캪뻸뛔쒿뇪,퓱,헾뢮캬돖만뚨믣싊뗄탐캪췪좫쫜훆폚뒢놸뗄늻ힷ쟳닺돶뗄뎬뎣퓶뎤쯙뛈;b=1틢캶ퟅ헾뢮쫇뛠짙;Obstfeld(1994,1996)뗈죋맘폚돥믷ꆰퟔ컒잿헾뢮,뛔닺돶퓶뎤뻟폐튰탄,쓜듓닺돶뗄뎬뎣퓶쪵쿖ꆱ뗄샭싛쒣탍,뺡맜탞헽쇋헾뢮뗄탐캪,퇐뺿뎤훐믱뗃뛮췢뗄킧폃ꆣ헾뢮뛠훘쒿뇪뻹뫢폫쫐뎡풤웚쿠뮥펰쿬쿂뗄믣싊닺돶쮮욽평볓죫풤웚틲쯘뗄럆솦웖쮹쟺쿟y뻹뫢컊쳢,떫뛔헾뢮킧폃욫뫃뗄볙짨죔쫇떥튻뗄,=y+(Π-Πe)+Ε룸돶,Πe쫇릫훚룹뻝짏튻웚탅쾢볙뚨헾뢮쫇뻟폐믺믡훷틥탐캪뗄죵헾뢮,틲뛸뫶It-1탎돉뗄풤웚춨믵엲헍싊,뻟폐췪좫샭탔,싺ퟣ쫓쇋헾뢮샠탍뗄닮뇰,쎻폐짦벰헾뢮짹폾뛔폚만Πe=E(ΠûIt-1);Ε쫇뻹횵캪쇣,랽닮캪Ρ2Ε뗄릩룸돥뚨믣싊캬돖뗄펰쿬ꆣ1999쓪,Agenor뫍Masson믷ꆣ(1999)뛔헾뢮짹폾뫍헾닟탅폾뷸탐쇋뾪뒴탔퇐컒쏇퓚쒣탍훐볓죫폃뛔쫽탎쪽뇭듯뗄쿠뛔릺뺿,쳡릩쇋튻룶뿉볬퇩쒣탍,퇐뺿짹폾죧뫎펰쿬릫싲솦욽볛쳵볾s=q+Π-Π3(sꆢqꆢΠ3럖뇰듺뇭믣훚풤웚ꆣ떫ퟜ쳥뛸퇔,쿠맘쇬폲죔좱랦쾵춳뮯뗄샭싊뇡횵싊ꆢ살ퟔ쪵볊늿쏅뗄돥믷틔벰췢맺뗄춨믵싛퇐뺿ꆣ엲헍싊),붫헾뢮킧폃뇭쪾캪믣싊뇡횵싊뗄몯쫽:폐본폚듋,놾컄쫔춼퓚ퟜ뷡쿖폐퇐뺿뗄믹뒡짏,뷡뫏믵뇒돥믷샭싛,펦폃늻췪좫탅쾢뚯첬늩?W1=-(Π3+2s-q)+b(Π3+s2e뗄퇐뺿랽램-q-s+Ε)(2),퓚샭탔풤웚뗄볙짨잰쳡쿂,춨맽붨솢튻맺헾뢮폫릫훚뗄탐캪늩?쒣탍,퇐뺿헾뢮짹폾뛔폚헾뢮뗄훷뚯탔뇡횵탐캪뫍헾뢮쏦쇙췢늿돥믷ꋚ캪볲뮯웰볻,놾컄뫶싔쇋헾닟맽돌훐뗄퓫짹룉죅,쪵볊쪱뗄놻뚯탔헾닟톡퓱뗄훆풼ퟷ폃ꆣ춨믵엲헍싊돉캪췪좫뿉뿘훆뗄헾닟뇤솿,룃볙짨늻펰쿬놾컄뗄믹놾뷡싛ꆣ쫀뷧뺭볃3ꆡ2000쓪뗚12웚ꆡꆤ11ꆤ' 1995-2003 Tsinghua Tongfang Optical Disc Co., Ltd. All rights reserved.
ꆡꆡ헾뢮짹폾ꆢ춶믺탔믵뇒돥믷폫만뚨믣싊뗄캬돖췢맺춨믵엲헍싊캪0,웤쯻돥믷q=0ꆢΕ=0,-1ö2뗄횧뢶횵ꆣ퓲헾뢮뗄떥뷗뛎킧폃몯쫽뿉틔뇭쪾캪:틲캪릫훚쟥돾헾뢮뗄놾훊,횪뗀죴쿠탅죵헾W1뢮믣싊컈뚨뗄돐억e(s=0),퓲죵헾뢮캪쳡룟킧=2e-s+b(s-s)(3)2짏쪽틢캶ퟅ,뛔킡맺뾪럅뺭볃뛸퇔,캬돖믣싊폃,붫뷸탐뇡횵,뗃떽1ö2뗄횧뢶횵,ퟔ벺붫틲틢컈뚨춬캬돖컯볛컈뚨쫇튻훂뗄,컞싛쫇잿헾뢮뮹췢뗄릺싲솦쿂붵뛸쫜쯰ꆣ쓇쎴,릫훚붫늻믡탅죎헾쫇죵헾뢮,볛룱(믣싊)뇤뚯뻹믡듸살뢺쏦펰쿬뢮컈뚨믣싊뗄돐억,웤샭탔풤웚놣돖es=1ꆣ틲듋,,떫죧맻웤뇤뚯뗄돌뛈뎬돶릫훚풤쇏,퓲죵헾뢮뿉듓춬쇣춨믵엲헍뗄믵뇒헾닟튻퇹,죵헾뢮컈뚨믣싊욽볛뗄헾닟돐억튲쫇뚯첬늻튻훂뗄ꆣ죵헾뢮퓚죎훐믱뗃튻뚨뗄쫕틦,룃쫕틦살풴폚헾뢮뛔쓚쪵볊웚쓚,쪼훕쫜떽짹폾컊쳢뗄삧죅,믣싊욽볛뗄뗷헻햮컱뗄쯵복ꆢ춨믵엲헍쮰ꆢ쎳틗늿쏅샻틦뗈뗈ꆣ뛸늻뿉뇜쏢뗘훘뢴뷸탐,만뚨믣싊컞램캬돖ꆣ잿헾뢮틔뇒횵뗄뛔쓚뫍뛔췢뗄뻸뛔컈뚨캪쒿뇪,쿖쪵뺭볃훐,릫훚맘폚헾뢮샠탍뗄늻췪좫탅믣싊뇡횵붫붵뗍ퟔ짭뗄킧폃ꆣ쾢쪹죵헾뢮뿉쓜퓚쿠떱뎤쪱볤쓚풼쫸ퟔ벺뗄훷뚯풤웚뇡횵싊뇭쪾캪e:st=(1-pꋛt)(1e-yt),pt탔뇡횵탐캪,뿍맛짏캪믣싊뗄컈뚨쳡릩쇋쳵볾ꆣ듺뇭헾뢮짹폾(릫훚죏캪헾뢮쫇잿헾뢮뗄룅싊),볙짨늩?뾪쪼쪱,헾뢮뗄돵쪼짹폾(릫훚죏캪eyt쫇릫훚죏캪죵헾뢮퓚t뷗뛎늻뇡횵뗄룅싊,샭룃헾뢮쫇잿헾뢮뗄쿈퇩룅싊)캪p0,릫훚내헕est=탔풤웚뻹뫢틢캶ퟅ폫t뷗뛎죵헾뢮늻뇡횵뗄쪵볊(1e-pt)(1-yt)탎돉ퟔ벺뗄뇡횵풤웚,맛달헾뢮룅싊yt쿠뗈ꆣ뗄헾닟탐캪ꆣ릫훚룹뻝놴튶쮹램퓲탞헽맘폚헾뢮릫훚뛔헾뢮짹폾뗄탞헽붫ퟱ헕ꆰ잿헾뢮늻뇡샠탍뗄에뛏,뛔쿂웚믣싊뷸탐풤닢,늩?볌탸뷸횵,뛸죵헾뢮퓲룹뻝뺭볃ힴ첬뷸탐뇡횵뻶닟ꆱ뗄탅탐ꆣ룹뻝KMRW짹폾뚨샭뗄췆떼ꋜ,t웚훘뢴늩쓮,내헕놴튶쮹램퓲뷸탐,뇭쪾캪:?뗄뻹뫢붫퇏룱틀삵폚헾뢮뗄돵쪼짹폾쮮욽:ptꇁ1pt+1(b=0ûs=0)=ptꇁ1+11죧맻돵쪼짹폾p0ꇝ12∆,퓲쒣탍뗄뻹뫢캪믬(1-pt)ꇁeꇝytpt춬뻹뫢,잿헾뢮톡퓱:s0=s1=ꆭ=st-1=st=0,쪼e(ytꇜ1)훕늻뇡횵;죵헾뢮톡퓱:s0=s1=ꆭ=st-1=st=1,p벴퓚tꇁ0t웚잰튻횱볡돖볈뚨뗄믣싊욽볛,뛸퓚늩?pt+1(b=0ûs=1)=ptꇁ=00+(1-pt)ꇁeyt뷸죫ퟮ뫳튻뷗뛎쪱닅닉좡뇡횵헾닟;릫훚뗄뇡횵(4)풤웚캪e:s0=es1=ꆭ=est-1=0e,st=1-p0;릫훚죏벴죧맻릫훚죏캪헾뢮폐뇡횵뗄뿉쓜탔e(yt>캪뷘훁t-1웚,믣싊붫놣돖컈뚨,뛸t웚뗄풤웚0),뛸헾뢮쎻폐뇡횵,퓲릫훚죏캪헾뢮쫇잿헾뢮뗄뇡횵싊붫좡뻶폚돵쪼짹폾ꆣ룅싊붫짏짽(pt+1>pt),늻뇡횵쓜릻쳡짽헾뢮짹헾뢮짹폾뗄퇝뷸슷뺶캪:p0=p1=ꆭ=pt,폾;죧맻릫훚풤웚쳘뚨쟩뿶쿂,컞싛잿죵헾뢮뻹늻0ꆡ죴st=1믡뇡횵ept+1=,잿헾뢮뗄ퟜ킧폃쳹쿖횵캪0,(yt=0),쟒헾뢮좷쪵쎻폐뇡횵,쓇쎴릫훚1ꆡ죴st=0뛔헾뢮샠탍뗄에뛏붫캬돖늻뇤(pt+1=pt)ꆣ죴돶쿖뇡횵,릫훚뻍믡죏뚨헾뢮쫇죵헾뢮뛸죵헾뢮뗄ퟜ킧폃쳹쿖횵캪∆t1(p0-)ꆣ(p2t+1=0),헾뢮틔췹볡돖늻뇡횵믽샛웰살뗄짹폾붫믙폚튻떩ꆣ튲뻍쫇쮵,짹폾뗄믽샛쫇붥뷸뗄,쯰쪧퓲쫇쳸풾탔ꋛ퇏룱뗘붲,릫훚풤웚뇡횵싊펦폃est=(1-pt)(1-yet)d뗄ꆣ뇭쪾,웤훐d쫇죵헾뢮쪵볊뷸탐뇡횵뗄럹뛈,퓚듋컒쏇볙짨캪뎣뫜쏷쿔쫽,볲뮯캪1,퓲풤웚믣싊뇡횵뗄럹뛈뗈폚릫훚풤웚헾뢮뷸탐뇡,룃늩?뗄췪좫탅쾢뻹뫢뷢캪:s=b,es(b)=b,벴죵헾뢮톡퓱1뗄뇡횵싊,잿헾뢮늻뇡횵뗄룅싊ꆣꋜKMRW쒣탍평뿋죰웕쮹ꆢ쏗뛻룱싞쒷ꆢ싞늮듄뫍췾뛻톷횵ꆣ릫훚뛔죵헾뢮뗄풤웚뇡횵싊캪1,뛔잿헾뢮뗄폚1982쓪뒴솢,훷튪뷢뻶늻췪좫탅쾢뚯첬훘뢴늩?뗄뻹뫢컊쳢,풤웚뇡횵싊캪0ꆣ잿헾뢮뫍죵헾뢮럖뇰뗃떽0뫍쿠맘뷩짜벰쒣탍뷡싛뗄췆떼볻헅캬펭(1996)ꆣ쫀뷧뺭볃3ꆡ2000쓪뗚12웚ꆡꆤ12ꆤ' 1995-2003 Tsinghua Tongfang Optical Disc Co., Ltd. All rights reserved.
듷뷰욽ꆡ췲횾뫪ꆡꆡ쎴듓킧폃돶랢,죵헾뢮뇰컞톡퓱,횻쓜뷸탐훷뚯탔2.죧맻돵쪼짹폾1p0<2∆,퓲늩?뗄뻹뫢쫇럖샫뻹뫢:잿헾뢮톡퓱뇡횵,헢폖헽뫃럻뫏쇋릫훚뗄풤웚ꆣ:s0=s1=ꆭ=st-1=st=0,죵헾뢮톡퓱춨맽웊컶헾뢮짹폾뛔폚릫훚믵뇒뇡횵풤웚뫍:s0=s1=ꆭ=st-1=st=1,벴퓚늩?튻뾪쪼뻍쪵쪩뇡횵헾닟헾뢮쪵볊헾닟뗄펰쿬,볲떥뗄짹폾쒣탍폐훺폚뷒,틔뫳쎿튻뷗뛎뻹뗷헻믣싊;릫훚뗄뇡횵풤웚캪쪾믣싊욽볛뗷헻훐뗄튻킩믹놾쿖쿳뫍쪵훊:e:s0=1e-p0,s1=ꆭ=est-1=est11늻킭뗷뗄뫪맛헾닟뗄룹풴ꆣ퓧웚뗄믵뇒캣1ꆡ죴s0=1=0ꆡ죴ꆣ헾뢮짹폾뗄퇝뷸슷뺶캪:p1=p2믺샭싛붫만뚨믣싊뇀삣뗄풭틲맩뷡폚헾뢮듭컳뗄s0=0뫪맛헾닟ꆣ춨맽뛔헾뢮샠탍뗄뮮럖틔벰짹폾컊쳢=ꆭ0ꆡ죴s0=1=pt=뗄ퟜ킧폃쳹쿖횵1ꆡ죴ꆣ잿헾뢮뗄첽쳖,뿉틔뾴떽,뫪맛헾닟뗄늻킭뗷,쳘뇰쫇삩s0=0캪헅탔믵뇒헾닟쫇죵헾뢮뗄훷뚯탐캪,평듋뛸닺짺0,뛸죵헾뢮뗄ퟜ킧폃쳹쿖횵캪1(1-∆t)p0-2(1-∆ꆣ)뗄뇡횵쫇뇘좻뗄ꆣ듓킧폃ퟮ듳뮯돶랢,춨믵엲헍믲헾뢮뗄돵쪼짹폾쮮욽횮쯹틔펰쿬쒣탍뗄뻹뇡횵헾닟뻹늻쫇잿헾뢮뗄ퟮ폅톡퓱,헢틢캶ퟅ잿뫢,쫇틲캪헾뢮쏦쇙뗄쫇뛠뷗뛎킧폃ퟮ듳뮯컊쳢,헾뢮뇘좻힢틢쪵쪩뷷짷뗄닆헾뫍믵뇒헾닟,훂솦죵헾뢮뷸탐뻶닟쪱,뇘탫뾼싇룃탐뚯뛔ퟔ짭짹폾폚춬랴춨믵엲헍뫍캬뮤믣싊컈뚨쿠맘뗄뫪맛헾닟쓋훁릫훚캴살풤웚뗄펰쿬,헾뢮쏦쇙뗄쪵볊컊쳢뗄킭뗷ꆣ쿠랴,죵헾뢮퓲뻟폐샻폃춨믵엲헍믲뇡횵쫇톡퓱쫊떱뗄쪱믺,샻폃릫훚탅쾢늻췪좫룸ퟔ벺믱좡샻틦뗄뚯믺ꆣ틲듋퓚쿖쪵뺭볃훐,듭컳뗄뫪맛듸살뗄뫃뒦ꆣ좨뫢킧폃,죵헾뢮뿉쓜믡퓚튻뚨뷗뛎헾닟,헽쫇죵헾뢮놾훊샠탍뗄쳥쿖뫍랴펳ꆣ퓬돉뫪쓚풼쫸ퟔ짭뗄뛌웚탐캪,뿍맛짏캪캬돖만뚨믣싊맛헾닟폫만뚨믣싊늻킭뗷뗄풭틲만좻폐헾뢮뛔뺭ퟶ돶릱쿗ꆣ볃뷡릹뫍뺭볃믹뒡에뛏쪧컳,틔벰췢늿돥믷틲쯘,돵쪼짹폾늻뷶펰쿬헾뢮뗄헾닟톡퓱,뛸쟒횱룹풴좴쫇헾뢮쎻폐볡뻶캬뮤만뚨믣싊뗄훷맛풸뷓펰쿬헾뢮ퟮ폅킧폃뗄듳킡ꆣ뇈뷏늻춬ힴ첬쿂죵췻ꆣ죧맻헾뢮퓚횴헾돵웚벴뾪쪼쪵쪩늻잡떱뗄뺭헾뢮쪵쪩늻춬헾닟믱뗃뗄킧폃쮮욽,잿짹폾쳵볾볃헾닟,샽죧듳맦쒣삩헅닆헾,퓶볓헾뢮돠ퟖ뾪쿂(p0ꇝ1)2∆헾뢮믱뗃뗄ퟜ킧폃쏷쿔듳폚죵짹폾쳵횧,맽뛈퓶볓믵뇒릩룸,쓇쎴뇘좻쫇틲캪헾뢮쏦쇙볾쿂1뗄짹폾쳵볾늻릻샭쿫,떼훂헾뢮뛌웚탐캪뗄돶쿖ꆣ(p0<2∆)믱뗃뗄ퟜ킧폃;뛸쟒,킧폃닮뇰춬헾21믣싊욽볛뗄랴뢴뗷헻ꆣ짹폾쒣탍뇭쏷,쏦뢮뗄쳹쿖횵∆헽쿠맘(횤쏷맽돌볻뢽슼1)ꆣ틲듋,쇙늻샻뗄짹폾쳵볾,죵헾뢮뗄ퟮ폅톡퓱쫇퓚늩?뺡맜퓚1p뗄뗚튻웚쪵탐믵뇒뇡횵헾닟ꆣ죧맻죵헾뢮퓚늩?0<2∆쪱,퓚뗚튻웚벴뷸탐뇡횵쫇죵헾뢮뗄ퟮ폅탐뚯,떫뇈뷏뛸퇔,쓇쫇헾뢮쏦쇙늻샻뗄돵뾪쪼뷗뛎쎻폐캬돖쳘뚨뗄믣싊욽볛,쓇쎴퓚쯦뫳쪼짹폾쪱뗄컞쓎뻶닟ꆣ뛔폚훘쫓캴살쫕틦,펵폐쿠뗄뷗뛎훐,튲쎻폐캬뮤욽볛뗄뚯믺,늢쟒릫훚뛔폚뛔뷏룟쳹쿖싊뗄죵헾뢮뛸퇔,돵쪼짹폾풽룟,캬돖헾뢮샠탍뗄쟥돾쇋뷢붫쪹믣싊쏦쇙랴뢴퓙뗷헻뗄만뚨믣싊뗄믽벫탔풽룟,뛸캪쇋믱뗃룼병뗄킧폃컊쳢ꆣ퓚헾뻖뚯떴,돤싺늻좷뚨탔뗄맺볒훐,헾뢮,헾뢮폐뇘튪뒴퓬솼뫃뗄돵쪼짹폾ꆣ뗄짹폾쫇쓑틔놣횤뗄,헢뻍룼퓶볓쇋믣싊늻컈뚨퓚듋뗄틲쯘ꆣ룹뻝Klein뫍Marion뛔삭쏀16룶맺볒,컒쏇뿉틔뾴떽,벴쪹쎻폐뾼싇췢늿돥믷틲쯘,평폚헾뢮짹폾뛔죵헾뢮훷뚯탔뇡횵뻶닟뗄뷘훁1991쓪뗄믣싊훆뛈뗄퇐뺿,늼샗뛙즭쇖쳥쾵펰쿬뷢쳥뫳,짏쫶맺볒릲46듎탻돆쪵탐뛔쏀풪뗄뚤힡,만뚨믣싊튲돊쿖ꆰퟔ컒쪵쿖ꆱ뗄쳘탔ꆣ헾뢮짹폾풽뫃(릫훚죏캪헾뢮뇡횵뗄뿉쓜탔뫜뗍),쓇쎴믣싊,웤훐폐26샽쫇퇹놾맺퓚쪵탐뚤힡믣싊늻떽죵헾뢮풽폐믽벫탔춨맽늻뇡횵캬돖ퟔ벺뗄짹폾1쓪뗄쪱볤쓚뇣럅웺쇋풭뚨뗄욽볛(Kleinand,만뚨믣싊뗃틔퓚쿠떱뎤뗄쪱웚쓚캬돖Marion,1997)ꆣ룃퇐뺿뷶짦벰돖탸쪱볤퓚3룶퓂;쿠랴,죧맻헾뢮쎻폐뗃떽릫훚ퟮ뗍쿞뛈뗄탅죎1횮짏뗄뚤힡믣싊,죧맻붫캬돖늻ퟣ3룶퓂뗄쪵샽(p0<)쓇2∆,볓죫,퓲뚤힡믣싊쪧냜뗄뇈샽뮹붫듳듳쳡룟ꆣ룃뗘쫀뷧뺭볃3ꆡ2000쓪뗚12웚ꆡꆤ13ꆤ' 1995-2003 Tsinghua Tongfang Optical Disc Co., Ltd. All rights reserved.
ꆡꆡ헾뢮짹폾ꆢ춶믺탔믵뇒돥믷폫만뚨믣싊뗄캬돖쟸욵랱뗄믣싊뗷헻풭틲놻죏캪쫇쪵볊믣싊뗄룟웚뇡횵퓶볓뛸복짙ꆣ헢쫇틲캪릫훚뇡횵풤웚ퟷ폃맀,뛸룹풴퓚폚늻뛏삩헅뗄믵뇒뫍닆헾헾닟ꆣ믵뇒폚짌욷ꆢ샍컱뫍믵뇒뗈쫐뎡,떼훂룟샻싊ꆢ룟쪧튵삩헅풴폚헾뢮뗄욫뫃,뛸믣싊뗄욵랱뗷헻폖듙쪹싊뫍룟춨믵엲헍풤웚톹솦,믡쳡룟헾뢮캬뮤믣싊쇋헾좨룼뗼,퇏훘쯰몦쇋릫훚뛔폚헾뢮뗄탅죎ꆣ뿉뗄돉놾,헢돤럖쳥쿖쇋Obstfeld뗈죋뗄춶믺탔믵틔헢퇹죏캪,믣싊욽볛뗄랴뢴뗷헻,쪹릫훚뛔폚헾뇒돥믷샭싛쒣탍뗄쳘뗣ꆣ뗚죽쿮듺뇭럅웺만뚨믣뢮뗄헾닟웕뇩늻탅죎ꆣ뛔탂튻뷬헾뢮횴헾횮쪱탻싊뗄믺믡돉놾,폫춨뎣뗄춶믺탔믵뇒돥믷샭싛볙늼뗄뚤힡믣싊헾닟,릫훚틑뺭탎돉맟탔뮳틉,헢틢짨늻춬뗄쫇,쒣탍쎻폐쪹폃만뚨뗄췋돶돉놾,뛸쫇캶ퟅ탂헾뢮돵쪼짹폾쮮욽쫇뷏뗍뗄ꆣ틲듋,죵헾뢮돤럖뾼싇떽헾뢮뛠풪뮯뗄킧폃(샽죧퓚헾훎ꆢ췢붻뗄캩튻샭탔톡퓱쫇뇡횵,듓뛸퓬돉짹폾폫헾닟횴뗈랽쏦믱뗃뗄쫕틦)틔벰뛠뷗뛎킧폃뗄좨뫢,폃뿉탐뗄뛱탔톭뮷ꆣ뇤뗄헾뢮짹폾쮮욽살뫢솿헾뢮췋돶만뚨믣싊훆뛈떱좻,짹폾쒣탍뗄펦폃,횻쫇듓훷맛뷇뛈뷒쪾뗄믺믡돉놾,pt쫇릫훚죏캪헾뢮쫴폚잿헾뢮뗄쿈쇋헾뢮뛔폚캬돖만뚨믣싊뗄첬뛈뫍틢풸,캪퇐뺿퇩에뛏,쾵쫽Β랴펳쇋늻춬헾뢮뛔폚ퟔ짭짹폾뗄헾뢮짹폾폫뇡횵탐캪뗄놾훊쳡릩쇋튻룶듖싔뗄뿲훘쫓돌뛈,Β풽듳,헾뢮듓캬뮤만뚨믣싊훐믱뗃뗄볜ꆣ튪뾼달헾뢮짹폾뛔폚만뚨믣싊캬돖뗄펰쿬,뇘킧폃풽룟ꆣ룃쪽뇭쏷,헾뢮뗖폹춶믺돥믷ꆢ캬돖만탫뷡뫏뺭볃랢햹ힴ첬뫍쫐뎡탄샭틲쯘,ퟶ뷸튻늽뚨믣싊뗄뺻쫕틦늻뷶좡뻶폚쒿뇪맺뺭볃뗄ힴ뿶ꆢ뗄럖컶ꆣ릫훚풤웚,튲좡뻶폚헾뢮퓚돥믷랢짺잰붨솢웰살뗄짹폾,돽뺭볃ힴ뿶뫍릫훚뇡횵풤웚뗄톹솦췢,헾죽ꆢ헾뢮짹폾ꆢ풤웚뇡횵싊폫뢮퓚뷸탐뇡횵뻶닟쪱뮹튪뾼싇ퟔ짭탐캪뛔짹폾쓋ꆰퟔ컒쪵쿖ꆱ뗄믵뇒돥믷훁캴살쫕틦퓬돉뗄펰쿬ꆣ쪽(6)쮵쏷듦퓚늻좷뚨돥믷쪱,릫훚샭탔풤웚ꆡꆡ놾늿럖ퟛ뫏ퟔ컒쪵쿖뗄믵뇒돥믷샭싛,붨솢폫쪵볊쟩뿶뗄맘쾵,릫훚룹뻝쒿잰쯹믱탅쾢,뛔쿂튻룶냼삨헾뢮짹폾뇤솿뗄믵뇒돥믷쒣탍튻웚뺭볃ힴ뿶ퟶ돶샭탔풤웚,벴e:kt=E(ktûIt-1),(Jeanne,1997),퓚룼캪쿖쪵뗄쒣탍뿲볜훐퇐뺿헾룃횵폃Á뇭쪾ꆣ풤웚폫쪵볊쟩뿶횮볤뗄닮뻠Ε쫇뢮짹폾뛔폚릫훚탅탄ꆪꆪ풤웚뇡횵싊뗄펰쿬ꆣ뻹퓈럖늼뗄뛀솢쯦믺뇤솿,볙짨웤쏜뛈몯쫽캪솬1.믹놾쒣탍ꆣ믵뇒돥믷샭싛맘폚헾뢮캬돖만탸뛔돆몯쫽f(x),싺ퟣf(-Ε)=f(Ε)>0,쟒퓚쟸뚨믣싊뗄쫕틦쯦뿍맛쳵볾뫍릫훚풤웚뇤뮯뛸뇤뮯볤(-ꇞ,0)떥뗷뗝퓶,(0,+ꇞ)떥뗷뗝복ꆣ뗄쳘헷,퇓탸쇋헾뢮훷맛킧폃ퟮ듳뮯뗄탐뚯맦퓲,쪽(7)뇭쏷릫훚풤웚뗄뇡횵룅싊쫇헾뢮쫴폚늢쟒볙짨릫훚뻟폐샭탔풤웚,춬쪱튲춻돶쇋헾뢮죵헾뢮뗄룅싊Λt(Λt=1-pt)폫죵헾뢮퓚떱잰뷗뛎짹폾뛔릫훚뇡횵풤웚뗄펰쿬,쒣탍뷡릹죧쿂:뿉쓜뷸탐뇡횵뗄룅싊뗄돋믽ꆣBt=kt-Αest+Βpt(5)샭탔풤웚뻹뫢틢캶ퟅ뻹뫢뗄뇡횵룅싊Πt뗈kt-Á=Ε(6)폚풤웚뗄뇡횵룅싊est,벴:eset=ΛtProb[Bt<0\](7)st=ΛtProb[Εt<Αest-Át-Β(1-Λt)]()쪽(5)쏨쫶쇋쳘뚨뷗뛎,헾뢮듓캬돖만뚨믣싊믲Π=ΛtF(ΑΠ-Át-Β+ΒΛꋞt)()훐뗃떽뗄뺻쫕틦Bt뗄릹돉:kt쫇헾뢮컈뚨믣싊뗄()쪽솽뇟뻹쫇est(Π)뗄퓶몯쫽,틢캶ퟅ쒣헾닟좡뗃릫훚췪좫탅죎쪱,캬돖믣싊뿉췻믱뗃뗄탍뿉쓜돶쿖뛠룶싺ퟣ쳵볾뗄뻹뫢뷢ꆣ웤훐Át룅삨쫕틦ꋝ,쯼쫇평뺭볃믹놾뷡릹뫍믹놾뇤솿뻶뚨뗄ꆣ쇋릫훚룹뻝믱뗃뗄좫늿탅쾢,뛔떥뒿평뺭볃ힴ첬떱뺭볃쳵볾뛱뮯쪱,kt뿉쓜쫇뢺횵,틢캶ퟅ캬돖만뚨믣싊퓚뺭볃짏뿉쓜쫇컞킧싊뗄ꆣest쫇릫훚룹뻝ꋝ짏튻웚쯹폐탅쾢,뛔헾뢮뇡횵뿉쓜탔뗄풤웚ꆣ뺭볃Jeanne붫웤뚨틥캪쪧튵싊뫍쳘뚨췋돶돉놾뗄몯쫽,뫳헟좡뻶폚쪵볊믣싊뗈믹놾뇤솿ꆣ믹뒡쳵볾튻뚨,캬뮤만뚨믣싊뗄뺻쫕틦쯦릫훚풤ꋞF(x)캪f(x)뗄샛볆럖늼몯쫽ꆣ쫀뷧뺭볃3ꆡ2000쓪뗚12웚ꆡꆤ14ꆤ' 1995-2003 Tsinghua Tongfang Optical Disc Co., Ltd. All rights reserved.
듷뷰욽ꆡ췲횾뫪ꆡꆡ뇤솿뻶뚨뗄캬뮤만뚨믣싊쫕틦뗄웚췻횵,쯼랴펳뻶뚨뻹뫢뇡횵룅싊뗄틲쯘,틲캪벴쪹Át늻뇤믲쇋t웚뗄뺭볃믹놾ힴ뿶ꆣ듋췢,돥믷뗄듳킡ꆢ릫훚Át쿠뛔뫃(춼2훐탩쿟늿럖),튲뿉쓜평떥뒿쫐뛔헾뢮뗄탅죎돌뛈틔벰헾뢮뛔폚짹폾뗄훘쫓돌뛈뎡탄샭틲쯘틽랢뇡횵풤웚뗄쳸풾,쪹뻹뫢뗄뇡횵튲펰쿬ퟅ릫훚뗄풤웚ꆣ룅싊짏짽(듓a떽b믲c뗣),듓헢룶틢틥짏붲,뛔쒣탍쟳뷢,뗃돶쿠펦뗄뺭볃믹놾ힴ첬ꆢ헾뢮캣믺쫇ퟔ컒쪵쿖뗄ꆣ짹폾뫍뇡횵풤웚횮볤뗄맘쾵,췆떼볻뢽슼2ꆣ(1)죧맻ΛΑf(0)<1,쪵볊뇡횵룅싊Πt평Át캩튻뻶뚨,늢쯦뺭볃뗄믹놾ힴ첬퇏룱뗝복,틢캶ퟅ믵뇒돥믷뗄랢짺훷튪쫇평뺭볃믹놾틲쯘틽웰뗄,퓚듋쳵볾쿂늻듦퓚뛠훘뻹뫢ꆣ(2)죧맻ΛΑf(0)>1,퓲듦퓚솽룶뻶뚨탔뗄쇙뷧횵Á>Áꆣ떱Á>Á,믲Á<Á쪱,Πt평Át캩튻뻶뚨,쟒퇏룱뗝복,틲듋튲늻듦퓚뛠훘뻹뫢;떱Áꇊ[Á,Á]쪱,퓲뿉쓜폐3룶뻹뫢뷢,Π1<Π2<Π3,믵뇒돥믷붫쫇뛠훘뻹뫢뗄,풤웚ퟔ컒쪵쿖ꆣ춼22.헾뢮짹폾쮮욽폫춶믺돥믷뗄ퟔ컒쪵쿖ꆣ헾뢮짹폾쮮욽펰쿬릫훚뗄풤웚,늢춨맽펰쿬뛠훘뻹뫢듦퓚뗄쳵볾,뻶뚨믵뇒돥믷쓜럱ퟔ컒쪵쿖ꆣ뻟쳥뛸퇔,웤뛔뻹뫢뇡횵룅싊뗄3룶펰쿬춾뺶쫇:(1)헾뢮짹폾뻶뚨뻹뫢뇡횵룅싊뗄벫쿞,늢춨맽펰쿬쫕틦Bt쪹뇡횵뿉쓜ퟔ컒쪵쿖ꆣ듓춼2뿉틔뾴돶,평폚est=ΛtProb[Bt<0\],뛸Bt<0뗄룅싊ퟜ쫇늻듳폚1뗄,틲듋,뻹뫢뗄뇡횵룅싊퓚(0,Λ)쟸춼1볤럖늼,헾뢮짹폾쮮욽뻶뚨쇋뻹뫢뇡횵룅싊뗄벫쿞ꆣ컞싛뺭볃ힴ뿶죧뫎,헾뢮짹폾풽뫃(Λ풽뗍),춼1쮵쏷헾뢮짹폾ꆢ뺭볃ힴ뿶폫뻹뫢뗄뇡횵릫훚뇡횵풤웚뻍풽뗍,뛸뷏닮뗄헾뢮짹폾떼훂룟풤웚뗄맘쾵ꆣ쟺쿟1뇭쏷뇡횵룅싊쯦뺭볃믹놾ힴ뇡횵풤웚ꆣ뿶풤웚횵Á떥뗷뗝복,쮵쏷쇋ΛΑf(0)<1뗄쟩뿶;퓚늻췪좫탅쾢쳵볾쿂,횻튪헾뢮믽샛쇋솼뫃쟺쿟2퓲듺뇭ΛΑf(0)>1,듓뛸쒣탍뿉쓜돶쿖뛠훘뗄짹폾,벴Λꇺ0,쓇쎴벴쪹뺭볃쏦쇙ퟅ뷏듳뗄돥뻹뫢뗄쟩뿶;쿠펦뗄쇙뷧횵Á뫍Á붫뺭볃뮮럖돉믷,떼훂뺭볃뛱뮯,떫릫훚뛔헾뢮컞쳵볾캬뮤믣싊3룶쟸볤ꆣ뗄탅죎,붫쪹풤웚뇡횵뗄룅싊쟷쿲0,듓뛸캪헾뢮떱뺭볃캻폚훐볤쟸폲(Á,Á)쪱,떥뒿룹뻝뺭뮺뷢뛌웚뺭볃뗄톹솦쳡릩쇋놦맳뗄쪱볤,폐훺폚볃ힴ뿶컞램에뛏뻹뫢뗄뇡횵풤웚ꆣΛΑf(0)뗄늻춬캬돖믣싊뗄컈뚨;랴횮,죧맻릫훚뛔폚헾뢮캬돖만좡횵,쪹뻹뫢늻튻뚨쫇캩튻뗄,뺭볃평듋뷸죫럖닭뚨믣싊뗄돐억좱랦탅탄,벴Λꇺ1,퓚쿠춬뗄돥믷ힴ첬ꆣ쟺쿟2뷒쪾쇋퓚룃쟸폲,쳘뚨뗄뺭볃ힴ뿶뿉쳵볾쿂,뻹뫢뗄뇡횵룅싊컞틉붫듳듳퓶볓ꆣ쓜뛔펦3룶늻춬뗄뻹뫢뇡횵룅싊,헾뢮캬돖만뚨캬뮤만뚨믣싊뗄ퟜ쫕틦폫헾뢮짹폾(쫴폚잿믣싊뗄뺻쫕틦폫뇡횵풤웚쿠뮥ퟷ폃,틲듋돊쿖ퟔ헾뢮뗄룅싊)쫇헽쿠맘뗄ꆣퟜ쫕틦Bt뛔폚Λt뗄욫컒쪵쿖뗄쳘탔ꆣ퓚듋쟸폲쓚,뺭볃믹놾틲쯘늻퓙쫇떼쫽킡폚0(볻뢽슼2),틢캶ퟅ릫훚맘폚헾뢮샠탍쫀뷧뺭볃3ꆡ2000쓪뗚12웚ꆡꆤ15ꆤ' 1995-2003 Tsinghua Tongfang Optical Disc Co., Ltd. All rights reserved.
ꆡꆡ헾뢮짹폾ꆢ춶믺탔믵뇒돥믷폫만뚨믣싊뗄캬돖뗄에뛏뿉쓜쫇ퟔ컒쪵쿖뗄ꆣ퓚쿠춬뗄뺭볃뫍췢늿돥믷쳵볾쿂,릫훚죏캪헾뢮쫇죵헾뢮뗄룅싊풽듳쿞뻹폃탩쿟뇭쪾ꆣ평폚5Á5Á5Λ>5Λ,틢캶ퟅΛ뗄퓶볓(짹폾풽닮),헾뢮듓캬뮤만뚨믣싊훐뗃떽뗄쫕틦쪹쇙뷧횵Á뇤뚯뗄럹뛈뎬맽쇋Á뇤뚯뗄럹뛈ꆣ틲B듋,헾뢮짹폾쮮욽t풽킡,뇡횵뗄뿉쓜탔풽듳,듓뛸룼틗놩슶웤죵뗄쿂붵쓜릻삩듳뺭볃돶쿖뛠훘헾뢮뗄놾훊뻹뫢뗄랶캧ꆣ쳘뇰뗄,퓚춼훐뗄B쟸폲,뷏룟뗄헾;쿠랴,죧맻릫훚죏캪헾뢮쫇잿헾뢮뗄룅싊풽듳,헾뢮쏦쇙뗄톹솦뷏킡,늻뇡횵뗄룅싊퓲뢮짹폾쮮욽뛔펦뗄쫇캩튻뗄ꆢ뗍뻹뫢뇡횵룅싊Π,퓶듳믵뇒쫇컈뚨뗄;뷏닮뗄헾뢮짹폾퓲뛔펦ퟅ죽룶룼,튲횤쪵쇋릫훚뗄에뛏ꆣ(2)춨맽펰쿬ΛΑf(0)뗄횵,헾뢮짹폾쮮욽뻶룟뗄뻹뫢뇡횵룅싊(ΠꇤꆢΠꇤ2뫍Πꇤ3),웤훐Πꇤ2뫍Πꇤ3뻹뚨캣믺쫇럱뿉쓜ퟔ컒쪵쿖ꆣ퓚쒣탍훐,뺭볃돶쿖풶듳폚Π,틢캶ퟅ헾뢮짹폾쮮욽뗄닮뇰볓듳쇋쫐ퟔ컒쪵쿖뗄뛠훘뻹뫢뗄뇘튪쳵볾횮튻쫇ΛΑf(0)뎡뗄늻좷뚨탔,튻떩쫐뎡돶쿖죅뚯,컞싛룃죅뚯쫇>0ꆣ평폚Λf(0)쫇쒣탍룸뚨뗄뷡릹닎쫽,틲듋헾샭탔뗄뮹쫇럇샭탔뗄,뚼붫쪹풭놾컈뚨뗄믵뇒돶뢮짹폾돉캪캩튻뻶뚨ΛΑf(0)듳킡뗄뇤솿ꆣ떱헾뢮쿖뇡횵ꆣ퓚쟸폲A,뷏뫃뗄짹폾뛔펦ퟅ죽룶뻹뫢뗄짹폾쮮욽싺ퟣΛ11뇡횵룅싊,뺭볃믹뒡튻뚨,죧맻쫐뎡풤웚늻랢짺쳸>Α(pt<1-f(0)Α)쪱,뺭볃f(0)풾뇤뮯,뇡횵풤웚뿉쓜캬돖퓚튻룶뷏뗍쮮욽,듓뛸캻폚럖닭쟸폲쪱붫돶쿖ퟔ컒쪵쿖뗄뛠훘뻹뫢ꆣ헢캪헾뢮훰늽룄짆뺭볃ힴ뿶쳡릩쇋쪱볤ꆣ뷏닮뗄짹틢캶ퟅ뛔폚튻맺믲쿠춬뷡릹뗄솽맺뛸퇔,헾뢮짹폾뷏닮쪱,릫훚뛔헾뢮뗄늻탅죎쪹뺭볃뗄늻좷뚨폾뛔펦뗄뇡횵풤웚쫇캩튻뗄,쟒쿠떱룟,틢캶ퟅ믵탔볓듳뇒쫇늻컈뚨뗄ꆣ퓚AꆢB쟸폲쓚,벴쪹뺭볃믹놾ힴ,떥뒿뗄쫐뎡풤웚뿉쓜틽랢믣싊캣믺;쿠랴,죧맻헾뢮짹폾뷏뫃,붫복짙늻좷뚨탔,뇡횵풤뿶쫇컈뚨뗄,떥뒿뗄헾뢮짹폾쮮욽뇤뚯뻍뿉틔퓶웚평뺭볃ힴ첬캩튻뻶뚨,늻믡돶쿖뛠훘뻹뫢ꆣ볓믵뇒뇡횵뗄뿉쓜탔,틲듋,룃쟸폲쓚랢짺뗄뇡횵뿉틔쫓캪평헾뢮짹폾뛱뮯틽랢뗄캣믺ꆣ(3)춨맽펰쿬뺭볃돶쿖뛠훘뻹뫢쟸폲뗄쇙뷧횵,헾뢮짹폾쮮욽쓜릻펰쿬ퟔ컒쪵쿖뗄뇡횵캣믺평폚뺭볃랢햹ퟱ톭튻뚨뗄맟탔뫍퇓탸탔,틲놬랢뗄쪱볤ꆣ닺짺뛠훘뻹뫢뗄뗚뛾룶뇘튪쳵볾쫇듋짹폾뗄뫃뮵붫횱뷓펰쿬뇡횵캣믺놬랢뗄쪱볤ꆣ뺭볃뒦폚럖닭쟸폲떱쪵볊뺭볃뷩폚훐볤쟸폲,쫐뎡뇈뷏쏴룐쪱,죧맻:Áꇊ[Á,Á]ꆣ뺭볃캻폚쟸폲뫪맛뺭볃폐뫃뗄벣쿳,쓇쎴펵폐뷏잿짹폾뗄헾1믲3쪱,ퟔ컒쪵쿖뗄돥믷늻믡랢짺,횻폐뺭볃뷸죫훐볤쟸폲,평쫐뎡탄샭뇤뚯틽랢뗄돥믷뻹뫢닅뢮뇈짹폾뷏닮뗄헾뢮쓜룼톸쯙뗘냚췑믵뇒뗄늻컈뿉쓜쫇뛠훘뗄ꆣ듋쪱뚨ힴ첬;쿠랴,죧맻뺭볃뷸튻늽뛱뮯,헾뢮뗄솼뫃,쇙뷧횵Á뫍Á뻹쫇헾뢮짹폾짹폾뿉췆동믵뇒캣믺놬랢뗄쪱볤ꆣ릫훚뛔폚헾뢮뗄퓶몯쫽,늢쟒욫떼쫽5Á5Á5Λ>캬돖만뚨믣싊뻶탄뫍쓜솦뗄에뛏,춨맽펰쿬쫐뎡5Λꆣ헢틢캶ퟅ,춨맽펰쿬뺭볃돶쿖뛠훘뻹뫢뗄쇙뷧횵,헾뢮짹폾쓜릻탄샭,돉캪룃뷗뛎뻶뚨뇡횵놬랢폫럱뗄훘튪틲쯘ꆣ펰쿬릫훚뛔폚뺭볃쿠뛔ힴ뿶뗄에뛏,듓뛸펰쿬릫3.헾뢮짹폾뗄뚯첬퇝뷸폫믣싊컈뚨ꆣ틔짏듓훚뇡횵풤웚쓋훁ퟔ컒쪵쿖쪽캣믺놬랢뗄쪱볤ꆣ벴뺲첬뷇뛈,퇐뺿쇋헾뢮짹폾쮮욽뛔폚틽랢믲뾹뫢쪹릫훚쇋뷢뺭볃뗄쪵볊ힴ뿶,뷶평폚헾뢮짹폾뗄ퟔ컒쪵쿖뗄믵뇒돥믷뗄펰쿬ꆣ죧맻뷸튻늽뾼달짹닮뇰,튲쓜볓뻧릫훚탄샭뇤뚯,쪹쿠춬뗄뺭볃믹놾폾뗄뚯첬퇝뷸슷뺶,퓲뿉쓜뛔폚쏦쇙믵뇒돥믷쪱풤웚뛔펦늻춬뗄뻹뫢뇡횵룅싊;늢쟒릫훚죏캪헾뗄헾뢮뻶닟탐캪폐룼짮죫뗄쇋뷢ꆣ뢮쫇죵헾뢮뗄룅싊풽룟(Λ풽듳),뛠훘뻹뫢뗄늻잰컄틑뺭볲떥뷩짜쇋짹폾뗄퇝뷸쳘헷,뇭쿖좷뚨쟸볤쯹냼삨뗄랶캧풽듳ꆣ캪붥뷸믽샛뫍쳸풾탔쯰쪧ꆣ뻟쳥뛸퇔,룹뻝짏쫶쒣춼2쮵쏷쇋늻춬뗄헾뢮짹폾죧뫎펰쿬돶쿖뛠탍,죧맻튻맺믵뇒퓚t-1웚쫜떽돥믷,릫훚뗄풤웚훘뻹뫢뗄훐볤쟸폲랶캧ꆣÁꇤ뫍Áꇤ럖뇰듺뇭룹뻝Λꇤ뇡횵싊캪Πt-1,죴헾뢮볡돖퓋폃쳡룟샻싊ꆢ뿘훆볆쯣돶뗄쇙뷧ힴ첬횵,Λꇤ>Λ,뇭쪾헾뢮짹폾잷병ꆣ놾쇷뚯뗈쫖뛎캬뮤쳘뚨뗄믣싊욽볛,퓲뷸죫t웚,폫Λꇤ쿠펦뗄뻹뫢뇡횵싊쟺쿟ꆢ뛠훘뻹뫢뗄쟸폲뷧릫훚뛔폚헾뢮샠탍뗄뫳퇩에뛏붫룹뻝놴튶쮹릫쪽쫀뷧뺭볃3ꆡ2000쓪뗚12웚ꆡꆤ16ꆤ' 1995-2003 Tsinghua Tongfang Optical Disc Co., Ltd. All rights reserved.
듷뷰욽ꆡ췲횾뫪ꆡꆡ뷸탐뗷헻,헾뢮짹폾뇤캪:랢짺,헾뢮붫늻믡볡돖만뚨믣싊,틲듋뛔캴살뇡횵ΛΛt-1\[1-F(ΑΠt-1-Át-1-Β(1-Λt-1))]뗄폇싇쪹놾춨맽룷훖쟾뗀듳솿쇷돶,볓쯙쇋ퟔt=1-Πt-1컒쪵쿖돥믷뗄놬랢ꆣΛt-1-Πt-1=1-Π(8)t-1횻튪쎻폐쪵쪩뇡횵,퓲릫훚컞램좷쟐횪뗀죵쯄ꆢ뷡싛폫헾닟붨틩헾뢮뗄헦쪵샠탍(Λt-1ꇙ0ꆢ1ꋟ),쓇쎴Λt<Λt-1,틢캶ퟅ릫훚죏캪헾뢮쫇잿헾뢮뗄룅싊쳡룟;춬쪱잰맘폚헾뢮짹폾ꆢ춶믺탔믵뇒돥믷틔벰만뚨믣웚뇡횵톹솦풽듳,헾뢮췧잿뗖폹돥믷,쪹ퟔ벺짹폾싊훆뛈뗄캬돖횮볤뗄맘쾵,폐죧쿂뷡싛뫍붨틩:쳡짽뗄럹뛈풽룟ꆣ쓇쎴,헾뢮퓚쏦쇙믵뇒돥믷쪱1.퓚헾뢮뗄뇡횵뻶닟훐,헾뢮짹폾쫇훘튪뗄,뾼싇떽죧맻췧잿뗖뾹,캬돖믣싊뗄컈뚨,붫쿲릫훚펰쿬틲쯘,벴쪹뺭볃쎻폐쫜떽췢늿돥믷,죧맻헾뢮뒫뗝튻뚨뗄잿헾뢮탅뫅,퓶잿릫훚뗄탅죎룐,쳡룟쏦쇙뷏닮뗄돵쪼짹폾,죵헾뢮튲폐샻폃뇡횵쪹ퟔ짹폾짭킧폃ퟮ듳뮯뗄뚯믺,뛸뷏뫃뗄돵쪼짹폾붫퓚튻,듓뛸퓶볓쿂튻웚헾뢮듓캬돖만뚨믣싊훐믱뗃뗄쫕틦,늢춨맽펰쿬릫훚뛔폚쿠뛔뺭볃ힴ뿶뗄뚨뷗뛎쓚쿞훆헾뢮뗄뇡횵탐캪,쿠뛔캬돖만뚨믣에뛏싊뗄컈뚨ꆣ평늻킭뗷뗄뫪맛헾닟쳘뇰쫇믵뇒삩헅,뮺뷢헾뢮뗄톹솦,쪹뺭볃톸쯙ퟟ돶늻좷뚨뗄ힴ첬,퓲캴살뇡횵뗄룅싊튲쯦횮붵뗍ꆣ헾닟떼훂뗄믣싊뇡횵뿉쓜쫇헾뢮뗄훷뚯탐캪,늿믵뇒튻뇡횵럖맺볒믣싊욽볛욵랱뗷헻뗄룹풴퓚폚헾뢮쎻폐뗃,릫훚붫쟥돾죵헾뢮뗄놾훊샠탍,헾뢮늻쓜퓙볌탸캱ힰ돉잿헾뢮,뎤웚믽샛뗄짹폾떽릫훚뗄탅죎,짹폾쳵볾뛱뮯ꆣ믙폚튻떩ꆣ릫훚에뛏캴살뇡횵쫇럱돶쿖붫췪좫틀2.헾뢮짹폾쮮욽펰쿬ퟅ릫훚뇡횵풤웚뗄ퟔ컒삵폚뛔뺭볃ힴ뿶뗄에뛏,캴살뻹뫢뗄뇡횵룅싊붫쪵쿖,뻶뚨춶믺탔믵뇒돥믷쫇럱돶쿖뛠훘뻹뫢,뛸싺ퟣΠ=F(ΑΠ-Á),퇏룱좡뻶폚뺭볃ힴ첬뫍쫐뎡짹폾ퟔ짭뗄퇝뷸슷뺶룼뛔풤웚뗄ퟔ컒쪵쿖웰떽볓틲쯘,헾뢮컞솦퓙샻폃릫훚뗄늻췪좫탅쾢캬돖믣쯙ퟷ폃ꆣퟷ캪쫐뎡탄샭틲쯘뗄튻늿럖,헾뢮짹폾폫싊ꆣ틲듋,뾼싇떽캴살뺭볃뗄컈뚨,벴쪹쫇죵헾뢮,뺭볃믹놾틲쯘릲춬뻶뚨쳘뚨뗄믣싊욽볛쓜럱캬튲붫짷훘뛔듽믵뇒뗄뇡횵,듓뛸뛴훆뺺헹탔뇡횵돖ꆣ늢쟒,떥뒿뗄헾뢮짹폾뇤뚯튲뿉틽웰뇡횵뗄랢뗄랢짺ꆣ짹폾뗄ퟷ폃뿍맛짏듙뷸쇋믣싊훆뛈뗄컈짺ꆣ떱뫪맛뺭볃돶쿖늻컈뚨헷헗쪱,헾뢮뻟폐뷏뫃뚨ꆣ짹폾뿉췆동믣싊훆뛈캣믺뗄놬랢쪱볤ꆣ헾뢮짹폾뗄튻듎탔쯰쪧뗄쳘뗣,폐훺폚샭뷢본폚헾뢮짹폾뛔폚릫훚탅탄뗄훘튪펰쿬,솼믣싊뇡횵솬탸돶쿖뗄컊쳢ꆣ내헕쿖폐뗄춶믺돥믷뫃뗄헾뢮짹폾폐훺폚탎돉폐샻뗄릫훚풤웚,붵뗍샭싛,믣싊뗷헻폐훺폚뮺뷢헾뢮뗄톹솦,늢쟒평쫐뇡횵톹솦,늢쟒평폚짹폾뗄샛믽킧펦,탎돉솼탔톭뎡탎돉뗄믣싊쓜릻랴펳룃맺뗄믹놾ힴ뿶,쪹뺭볃뮷ꆣ듓헢룶틢틥짏붲,쳡짽헾뢮짹폾폫캬돖믣싊컈훘탂듯떽뻹뫢ꆣ평폚짌욷쫐뎡뫍믵뇒쫐뎡뗷헻뗄뚨쫇튻훂뗄ꆣ캪퓶잿릫훚뛔폚쳘뚨믣싊욽볛뗄탅쯙뛈닮틬,믣싊뗄뛌웚뇡횵럹뛈붫뎬맽뻹뫢뗄뇡탄,헾뢮뇘탫컼좡틔췹믣싊훆뛈캣믺뗄뷌통,맦랶횵럹뛈,쓇쎴뇡횵맺뗄뇒횵붫퓚틔뫳뷗뛎뮺싽짏ퟔ짭뗄헾닟탐캪,좷뚨쫊떱뗄맒릳믵뇒폫욽볛,춨짽ꆣ좻뛸,퓚뚫퇇캣믺훐,룷맺뗄믣싊좴퓚1997쓪맽믵뇒폫닆헾헾닟ꆢ뷰죚ퟔ평뮯폫뷰죚볠맜헾닟ꆢ뗗돵늽웳컈뫳,폚1998쓪퓙뛈듳맦쒣뇡횵ꆣ돽쇋뷰죚뾪럅폫뷰죚컈뚨뗈헾닟뗄쿠뮥킭뗷,뇭쏷헾뫪맛뺭볃쳵볾뛱뮯횮췢,뛔룃쿖쿳뗄튻훖뿉쓜뗄뢮캬돖믣싊컈뚨뗄뻶탄ꆣ춬쪱,헾뢮펦룃퓶잿탅쾢뷢쫍쫇:평폚헾뢮퓚뗚튻듎뇡횵훐틑뺭췪좫쯰쪧뒦샭폫뒫뗝뗄춸쏷뛈,폐쳵볾뗄맺볒뿉틔뷸튻늽쇋믽샛뗄짹폾,릫훚랢쿖헾뢮늢럇쿱쿫쿳훐쓇퇹퓋폃훆뛈믲램싉낲업(샽죧믵뇒뻖훆뛈뗈)쿞훆헾잿듳,뫪맛뺭볃뗄뗷헻폖쫇뮺싽뗄,짹폾뗄쯰쪧쪹릫훚뛔뺭볃쯹뒦뗄쿠뛔ힴ첬벫뛈놯맛,죏캪헾뢮ꋟ평Λt(1-Πt-1)=Λt-1-Πt-1뿉횪,횻튪Πt-1ꇙ0,퓲Λt-컈뚨믣싊뗄탻룦쫇늻뿉탅뗄,죧맻춶믺돥믷퓙뛈Λt-1=ΛtΠt-1-Πt-1<0ꆣ쫀뷧뺭볃3ꆡ2000쓪뗚12웚ꆡꆤ17ꆤ' 1995-2003 Tsinghua Tongfang Optical Disc Co., Ltd. All rights reserved.
ꆡꆡ헾뢮짹폾ꆢ춶믺탔믵뇒돥믷폫만뚨믣싊뗄캬돖뢮좨솦,퓶볓만뚨믣싊돐억뗄뿉탅탔ꆣ뷸튻늽뛔Á뫍Á쟳Λ뗄욫떼쫽,폃Y듺쳦-11f(ΛΑ),뿉뗃:5Á뢽슼=ΑF(Y)+ΛΑ5F(Y)5Λ+Β5Y-1ꆡ헾뢮뗄쳹쿖횵폫킧폃5Λ5Λ뾼싇솽룶뷡릹췪좫쿠춬,뷶돵쪼짹폾늻춬뗄맺볒AꆢB,웤짹=ΑF(Y)+ΛΑ5Fꇁ5Y5Y폾쳵볾싺ퟣ5Y5Λ+Β-5Λ:힢틢떽5F11=f(Y)=f(-1f(5YΛΑ))=ΛΑ,틲듋5Á5Λ=ΑF(Y)Pa0ꇝ12∆Pb0ꆡꆡ(∆>1ö2)Á평폚뛔A뛸퇔,톡퓱T-1늻뇡횵쫇ퟮ폅헾닟+Β>0ꆣ춬샭5,,틢캶ퟅ:5Λ=ΑF(-Y)+Β>0,벴믵뇒컈뚨폫럱뗄쟸볤t-1좡뻶폚헾뢮짹폾,늢쟒폫Λ헽쿠맘ꆣU1A=∆T(Pa10-)ꇝPa20-∆n;ꆡPa260ꇝPb0,퓲n=ퟜ쫕틦폫짹폾뗄맘쾵:0t-1t-115BtPa0-∆nꇝ1Pb0-26∆n=UBꆡ벴UAꇝUBꆣ=-Α5Πt-Β5Λt5Λtn=026n=0ꇟ5UA5∆>0ꆡ5UB5∆<0ꆡꇠ5(UA-UB)5∆>0,벴쳹쿖횵풽듳5B,=-Α[F(B)+Λf(B)5Λ\]-Β솽헟뗄킧폃닮뇰풽듳ꆣ5B-ΑF(B)-Β5Λ=1+ΑΛ<0뢽슼f(B)2ꆡ뛠훘뻹뫢쿂춼쮵쏷쇋뛠훘뻹뫢돶쿖뗄쳵볾,뫡ퟝ훡뻹틔뇡횵룅싊Π캪떥캻,쟺쿟M듺뇭몯쫽F(ΑΠt-Át-Β+ΒΛt),룹뻝볙짨,웤킱싊닎뾼컄쿗:헅캬펭(1996):ꆶ늩?싛폫탅쾢뺭볃톧ꆷ,짏몣죽솪쫩뗪뫍짏ΛΑf(x)퓚Π=(Á-Β+ΒΛt)öΑ(벴ΑΠt-Át-Β+ΒΛt)쪱듯떽ퟮ듳횵,틲듋,죧맻ΛΑf(0)<1,퓲틢캶ퟅ쟺쿟M뗄킱싊퓚죎뫎뗘랽뻹몣죋쏱돶냦짧,짏몣ꆣ킡폚.,.(1999):ꆰCredibility,1,M폫45ꇣ쿟틲듋뷶폐튻룶붻뗣,벴Mꇤ뗄쟩뿶;죴ΛΑf(0)>ReputationandtheMexicoPesoCrisisꆱ,JournalofMoney,1,퓲쟺쿟M뗄튻늿럖폫45ꇣ쿟쿠쟐쪱듦퓚솽룶붻뗣,캻폚솽룶쟐뗣캻훃횮볤뗄M쟺쿟,듦퓚죽룶붻뗣,벴뛠훘뻹뫢ꆣCreditandBanking,1999(31),.,(1983):ꆰRules,DiscretionandReputationinaModelofMonetaryPolicyꆱ,JournalofMon2etaryEconomics,1983(12),.,andTommasiM.(1997):ꆰOntheCredibilityofAlternativeExchangeRateRegimesꆱ,JournalofDevelopmentEconomics,1997(54),.(1999):ꆰTransparency,Reputation,andCredibilityunderFloatingandPeggedExchangeRatesꆱ,JournalofInternationalEconomics,1999(49),,O.(1997):ꆰAreCurrencyCrisesSelf-Fulfilling?ATestꆱ,JournalofInternationalEconomics,1997(43),쿠펦뗄Á뫍뇡횵룅싊Π싺ퟣ틔쿂쳵볾:-286.Π=ΛF(ΑΠ-Á-Β+ΒΛ).,.(1997):ꆰExplainingthe(Á<ΑΠ-Β+ΒΛ)1=ΛΑf(ΑΠ-Á-Β+ΒΛ)DurationofExchange-ratePegsꆱ,JournalofDevelopmentEco2Π=ΛF(ΑΠ-Á-Β+ΒΛ)nomics,1997(54),-404.(Á>ΑΠ-Β+ΒΛ)1=ΛΑf(ΑΠ-Á-Β+ΒΛ)Obstfeld,M.(1996):ꆰModelofCurrencyCriseswithSelf뷢횮:-fulfillingFeaturesꆱ,EuropeanEconomicReview,1996(40),ꇟΠ-Á-Β+ΒΛ1=-1f(ΛΑ)ꆪꆪ(1994):ꆰTheLogicofCurrencyCrisesꆱ,CahiersE2Á=ΑΠ-Β+ΒΛ1-1-f(ΛΑ)conomiquesetmonetaires1994(43),-213.ꇠSachs,J.(1997):ꆰAnOverviewofStabilizationIssuesFac2Á=ΛΑF(-111-1f(ΛΑ))-Β+ΒΛ-f(ΛΑ)ingEconomicsinTransitionꆱ,,.(Á<ΑΠ-Β+ΒΛ)Sachseds.:EconomicsinTransitions1997,Cambridge,Mass:춬샭,Á=ΛΑF(-11-f(ΛΑ))-Β+ΒΛ+-11f(ΛΑ)MITPress.(Á>ΑΠ-Β+ΒΛ)웤훐-1f(x)쫇f(x)뗄랴몯쫽ꆣ(뷘룥:2000쓪9퓂ꆡ퓰죎뇠벭:쯎횾룕)쫀뷧뺭볃3ꆡ2000쓪뗚12웚ꆡꆤ18ꆤ' 1995-2003 Tsinghua Tongfang Optical Disc Co., Ltd. All rights reserved.
