뗚20뻭뗚1웚,쓪3퓂뗘ꆡ샭ꆡ뿆ꆡ톧ꆡ뷸ꆡ햹PROGRESSINGEOGRAPHYMar.,2001ꆡꆡ컄헂뇠뫅:100726301(2001)0120051209릤튵폃쮮쇣퓶뎤뗄쳵볾럖컶ꆪꆪ랢듯맺볒뗄뺭퇩볖짜럯(훐맺뿆톧풺뗘샭뿆톧폫풴퇐뺿쯹,놱뺩ꆡ100101)햪튪:놾컄첽쳖랢듯맺볒릤튵폃쮮쇣퓶뎤돶쿖뗄쪱볤벰웤풭틲ꆣ랢듯맺볒뗄뺭퇩뇭쏷:뷏룟뗄뮷뺳놣뮤튪쟳쫇릤튵폃쮮복짙뗄뫪맛짧믡놳뺰,닺튵뷡릹짽벶퓲쫇릤튵폃쮮쪵쿖쇣퓶뎤뗄횱뷓풭틲ꆣ뗚뛾닺튵쯹햼뗄GDP뇈훘뫍뻍튵뇈훘뗄뾪쪼붵뗍쫇릤튵폃쮮복짙뗄잰ퟠ,뗚뛾닺튵뇈훘뗄쏷쿔붵뗍ꆪꆪ웤쪵훊쫇룟뫄쮮뗄훘뮯릤탐튵맦쒣뗄뻸뛔캮쯵ꆪꆪ벸뫵쫇릤튵폃쮮춣횹퓶뎤뗄돤럖쳵볾ꆣ맘ꆡ볼ꆡ듊:릤튵폃쮮;폃쮮쇣퓶뎤;닺튵뷡릹짽벶;랢듯맺볒훐춼럖샠뫅:F42919ꆡꆡ컄쿗뇪쪶싫:A1ꆡ틽퇔떭쮮놻죏캪쫇21쫀볍ퟮ뷴좱뗄풴ꆣ평폚뗘쟲뇭닣뗄떭쮮릩룸쫇폐쿞뗄,뛸쟒뫜뛠뗘랽틑뺭뾪랢듹뺡,틲듋뗷뿘쮮풴탨쟳돉캪뇘좻톡퓱ꆣ뛔훐맺뗈뺭볃랢햹톸쯙뗄랢햹훐맺볒뛸퇔,퓚죽훖훷튪탨쮮샠탍(짺믮폃쮮ꆢ릤튵폃쮮뫍얩튵폃쮮)횮훐,릤튵폃쮮뗄뇤뚯쟷쫆틢틥훘듳ꆣ풭틲쫇쒿잰릤튵ퟜ닺횵뗄퓶뎤쯙뛈뫜뿬(쓪뻹퓶뎤싊10%틔짏),풤닢뗄캴살릤튵ퟜ닺횵퓶뎤쯙뛈튲뫜뿬,내헕릤튵ퟜ닺횵돋틔떥캻닺횵뫄쮮솿뗄릤튵탨쮮솿풤닢쒣쪽,벴쪹뾼싇떥캻닺횵뫄쮮솿뗄듳럹뛈붵뗍,풤닢뗄릤튵탨쮮솿뇘붫돉놶퓶뎤ꆣ퓚뫜뛠쮮풴맦뮮훐,릤튵탨쮮뗄풤닢뷡맻뻍쫇돉놶퓶뎤ꆣ죧맻캴살뗄쟷쫆헦뗄죧듋,퓲볈틢캶ퟅ릤튵탨쮮솿뗄듳럹뛈퓶뎤,쪹퓚뿕볤짏럇뎣벯훐뗄릤튵폃쮮벰돇쫐짺믮폃쮮룼볓삧쓑\[1,2\],튲틢캶ퟅ얩튵폃쮮놻듳럹뛈쿷복뛸폃폚릤튵,쓇쎴듳볒떣탄뗄틲쮮풴뛌좱뛸떼훂뗄솸쪳뛌좱뫜뿉쓜돉캪쿖쪵ꆣ늻맽컒쏇폐샭평뮳틉헢훖풤닢뗄ힼ좷탔,쳘뇰쫇뛔폚풤닢웚20쓪틔짏뗄뎤웚풤닢뛸퇔ꆣ틲캪튻랽쏦룹뻝뺭볃맦싉,폃쮮탨쟳믡쫜떽폃쮮돉놾뫍킧틦뗄훆풼\[ꆫ35\],쇭튻랽쏦룹뻝랢듯맺볒뗄뺭퇩,릤튵ퟜ닺횵늻뿉쓜튻횱룟쯙퓶뎤,릤튵폃쮮솿튲늻믡튻횱퓶뎤,뛸쫇폐춣횹퓶뎤짵훁뛸쿂붵뗄쪱뫲ꆣ놾컄춨맽ퟜ뷡랢듯맺볒릤튵폃쮮뗄뇤뚯맽돌,럖컶릤튵폃쮮뇤뚯폫뮷뺳놣뮤ꆢ닺튵뷡릹뇤뚯뗈틲쯘뗄뛔펦맘쾵,솦쟳헒돶릤튵폃쮮뇤뚯뗄맦싉,닩쏷릤튵폃쮮춣횹퓶뎤쓋훁쿂붵뗄쳵볾,틔캪랢햹훐맺볒뗄릤튵탨쮮풤ꆡꆡ쫕룥죕웚:2000212;탞뚩죕웚:2001202ꆡꆡ믹뷰쿮쒿:훐맺뿆톧풺훘뗣쿮쒿훺(쟸폲Ì-9903)ꆣꆡꆡퟷ헟볲뷩:볖짜럯(19642),쓐,뫾쓏쇺즽죋,훐맺뿆톧풺뗘샭뿆톧폫풴퇐뺿쯹뢱퇐뺿풱ꆣ듓쫂쮮컄쮮풴뫍쟸폲뿉돖탸랢햹퇐뺿ꆣ' 1995-2004 Tsinghua Tongfang Optical Disc Co., Ltd. All rights reserved.
52뗘ꆡꆡ샭ꆡꆡ뿆ꆡꆡ톧ꆡꆡ뷸ꆡꆡ햹ꆡꆡꆡꆡꆡꆡꆡꆡꆡꆡꆡ20뻭닢쳡릩닎뾼틀뻝ꆣ2ꆡ랢듯맺볒뗄릤튵폃쮮샺쪷뇤뚯맽돌뺭볃뫏ퟷ폫랢햹ퟩ횯뗄24룶돉풱맺,돽쇋쮮풴뾪랢샻폃싊뫜뗍(2%틔쿂)뗄볓쓃듳ꆢ뇹떺뫍얲췾,닺튵짽벶뷏캪훍뫳뗄몫맺,뫍쇏쾵쇐첫뛌(ퟮ탂뗄쇏횻떽1980쓪)쓑틔ퟷ돶에뛏뗄뇈샻쪱ꆢ쾣산뫍낮뛻삼ퟜ릲7룶맺볒횮췢,웤폠17룶맺볒퓚90쓪듺틔잰뚼뺭샺쇋릤튵폃쮮솿(횸떭쮮좡폃솿,쿂춬)듯떽룟럥늢뛸쿂붵뗄맽돌(볻뇭1)ꆣ몫맺ꆢ첨췥ꆢ쿣룛ꆢ탂볓웂뗈탂탋릤튵뮯맺볒믲뗘쟸퓚90쓪듺뫳웚튲돶쿖쇋릤튵폃쮮복짙뗄쿖쿳ꆣ뿉볻,릤튵폃쮮퓚짏짽떽튻뚨뷗뛎뫳뿉쓜춣횹퓶뎤짵훁뛸쿂붵,헢쫇튻훖뫜웕뇩뗄쿖쿳ꆣ랢듯맺볒릤튵폃쮮돶쿖복짙쟷쫆ퟮ퓧뗄쫇죰뗤ꆣ1964쓪럇뎣훘쫓뮷놣뗄죰뗤춨맽쮮훊램쇮,잿훆짺닺폃쮮뗄퓙톭뮷샻폃,쪹뗃릤튵떭쮮좡쮮솿듓1966쓪뾪쪼톸쯙쿂붵,1975쓪뇈1965쓪릤튵좡쮮솿복짙쇋풼50%\[6ꆣ\]뫉삼뗄릤튵폃쮮튲뷏퓧뗘듓60쓪듺쒩뷸죫복짙웚\[7ꆣ\]듳늿럖랢듯맺볒릤튵폃쮮뗄복짙돶쿖퓚70쓪듺뫍80쓪듺ꆣ죕놾릤튵폃쮮복짙뾪쪼뗄쓪럝쫇1974쓪(볻춼1\[8\]),쏀맺릤튵떭쮮좡쮮솿뾪쪼복짙뗄쓪럝쫇1981쓪(볻춼2\[9)ꆣ\]춼1ꆡ죕놾릤튵좡떭쮮춼2ꆡ쏀맺샺쓪떭쮮좡폃솿(30죋틔짏웳튵,millionm3öday)(billiongallonsöd)ꆡIndustrialFreshwaterwithdrawofUSA3ꆡ랢듯맺볒릤튵폃쮮춣횹퓶뎤뗄쳵볾럖컶70ꆢ80쓪듺랢듯맺볒릤튵폃쮮복짙폐짮풶뗄짧믡뺭볃놳뺰ꆣ놾뷚쳖싛랢듯맺볒릤튵폃쮮복짙폫떱쪱훮뛠짧믡뺭볃쿖쿳뗄뛔펦맘쾵ꆣ311ꆡ릤튵폃쮮복짙폫쪯폍볛룱뇤뚯뗄뛔펦맘쾵춼3쫇낢삭늮뇪ힼ쟡훊풭폍볛룱쟺쿟ꆣ랢듯맺볒릤튵폃쮮복짙뗄70ꆢ80쓪듺잡쟉쫇쪯폍볛룱룟헇뗄쓪듺ꆣ뇈뷏춼1뫍춼3,뿉틔뾴돶죕놾릤튵폃쮮복짙뗄쪱볤룕뫃쫇뗚튻듎쪯폍볛룱쏍헇뗄쪱볤;뇈뷏춼2뫍춼3,뿉틔뾴돶쏀맺릤튵폃쮮복짙뗄쪱볤룕뫃쫇뗚뛾듎쪯폍볛룱쏍헇뗄쪱볤ꆣ틲듋쪯폍볛룱뗄짏헇폫랢듯맺볒릤튵춼3ꆡ샺쓪쪯폍볛룱(쏀풪ö춰)폃쮮복짙폐쏜쟐뗄맘쾵ꆣ떫쫇,늻쓜죏캪쪯폍볛ꆡCrudeoilpricechange쇏살풴:Trumanet\[3\]뫍Worldband1999' 1995-2004 Tsinghua Tongfang Optical Disc Co., Ltd. All rights reserved.
1웚ꆡꆡꆡꆡꆡꆡꆡꆡ볖짜럯:릤튵폃쮮쇣퓶뎤뗄쳵볾럖컶ꆪꆪ랢듯맺볒뗄뺭퇩53룱짏헇쫇릤튵폃쮮복짙뗄룹놾풭틲ꆣ샭평횮튻쫇죰뗤ꆢ뫉삼뗈맺볒퓚쪯폍캣믺횮잰릤튵폃쮮뻍뾪쪼복짙쇋;샭평횮뛾쫇1985쓪틔뫳쪯폍볛룱듳럹뛈믘실,뛸릤튵폃쮮늢쎻폐쯦횮믘짽,뛸쫇쟷폚컈뚨짵훁볌탸복짙ꆣ뛸쟒죧맻내늻뇤볛룱살뫢솿,쪯폍볛룱뗄뎤웚뇤뮯쟷쫆쫇쿂붵뗄ꆣ쯤좻쪯폍캣믺훐쪯폍볛룱좷쪵듳럹뛈짏헇,떫벴쪹1981쓪쪯폍쿖볛ퟮ룟쪱뗄쪯폍볛룱튲튪뇈20쫀볍돵웚뗍ꆣ뇭1ꆡ랢듯맺볒(OECD돉풱)릤튵폃쮮뇤뮯쟩뿶Tab11ꆡIndustrialwaterusechangeinOECDcountries맺볒쓪럝릤튵좡쮮릤튵폃쮮쫇돶쿖쿂붵릤튵폃쮮쫇돶쿖쿂붵ökm3öa1럱뛸쿂붵1뗄쪱뛎맺볒쓪럝릤튵좡쮮1ökm3öa1럱뛸쿂붵1뗄쪱뛎1냄듳샻퇇19750136쫇75ꆫ85낮뛻삼19720130쇏늻ퟣ1985012919790158탂컷삼19680134쫇68ꆫ801980015819800112틢듳샻19703124쫇80ꆫ811985011919801511719910120198112151볓쓃듳197723140럱199015117198025131슬즭놤19730103쫇73ꆫ7619913115719760103쏀맺2쫇ꆽ1981뫉삼19729122쫇67ꆫ723냂뗘샻19751190쫇80ꆫ89198081661980212819868183198911551991417619911137얲췾19721118럱뇈샻쪱19716194쇏늻ퟣ198011441980716819831146떤싳19700130쫇77ꆫ881985114619770138웏쳑퇀1990쫇80ꆫ9019880132컷냠퇀19755150쫇86ꆫ911990013219856184럒삼19723192쫇72ꆫ80198611192198031151991810019892155죰뗤19752150쫇19661991118719802119램맺197517128쫇88ꆫ901989116519842219819911161198830113죰쪿19731120쫇85ꆫ8919902610319852134솪냮뗂맺197523124쫇87ꆫ911989018219812819819910187198737160펢맺197213142쫇80ꆫ89199132139198021183쾣산19750113쇏늻ퟣ19891111719801146죕놾4쫇1974뇹떺19870106럱몫맺19761139쫇90쓪듺1991011019929166쇏살풴:11쾵ퟷ헟룹뻝WorldResources헻샭;21쏀맺뗄폃쮮쇏살ퟔUnitedStatesGeologicalSurveyAgency;31Colenbrander1986;41죕놾뗄쇏살ퟔ쮮뗀닺튵탂컅짧,쮮뗀쓪본1988ꆫ1996ꆣ' 1995-2004 Tsinghua Tongfang Optical Disc Co., Ltd. All rights reserved.
54뗘ꆡꆡ샭ꆡꆡ뿆ꆡꆡ톧ꆡꆡ뷸ꆡꆡ햹ꆡꆡꆡꆡꆡꆡꆡꆡꆡꆡꆡ20뻭ꆡꆡ쪯폍캣믺횮쯹틔뒥랢릤튵폃쮮복짙뗄풭틲쫇:튻랽쏦,쪯폍볛룱뗄듳럹뛈짏짽틽랢뺭볃캣믺,뫜뛠릤튵탐튵닺욷닺솿쿂붵,폃쮮쯦횮복짙;쇭튻랽쏦,쪯폍볛룱뗄듳럹뛈짏짽쪹돩쮮돉놾뫍릩쮮볛룱짏짽,튲틖훆쇋폃쮮탨쟳ꆣ312ꆡ릤튵폃쮮폫훘뮯릤닺욷닺솿뗄뛔펦맘쾵랢듯맺볒릤튵폃쮮뗄복짙폫훘뮯릤닺욷닺솿뗄복짙튲벸뫵쫇춬늽뗄ꆣ쟫뾴뇭2랢듯맺볒듖룖ꆢ쮮쓠ꆢ쪯폍튱솶뗈훘뮯릤닺욷닺솿듯떽샺쪷ퟮ룟럥뗄쪱볤ꆣ헢킩쪱볤듳뚼쫇퓚70ꆢ80쓪듺,폫릤튵폃쮮복짙뗄쪱믺뫜뷓뷼ꆣ헢펦룃늻횻쫇튻훖쟉뫏ꆣ뇭2ꆡ뗚뛾듎쫀뷧듳햽뫳랢듯맺볒쒳킩짺닺횸뇪듯떽룟럥뗄쪱볤Tab12ꆡTheclimaxtimeofsomeproductionindicatorsindevelopedcountries맺볒듖룖쮮쓠쪯폍튱솶쓜솦솶폍닺솿짌뒬훆퓬솿짌뒬펵폐솿쳺슷믵퓋솿냄듳샻퇇19811197919811980197619821982탂컷삼1974볓쓃듳1979197919771979197619821981쏀ꆡ맺1973197319801978197619471979냂뗘샻197919741980ꆭꆭ뇈샻쪱1974197719761977떤ꆡ싳ꆭ1973197919741978럒ꆡ삼ꆭ19761976램ꆡ맺1974197219771976197419781974솪냮뗂맺1979197219781979197519781970쾣ꆡ산ꆭ199521973뇹ꆡ떺낮뛻삼틢듳샻1980198119781979197419791980슬즭놤1974뫉ꆡ삼1974119741974197619751975얲ꆡ췾197419731976웏쳑퇀1973컷냠퇀198519781976197619751979죰ꆡ뗤19741973197319761974죰ꆡ쪿ꆭꆭꆭꆭꆭꆭ펢ꆡ맺1970197319741975195519751951죕ꆡ놾1974198019791979197519761970몫ꆡ맺19952199521995219952힢:11룶뇰맺볒90쓪듺훐웚닺솿믖뢴늢뎬맽샺쪷ퟮ룟쮮욽;21쇏뷘횹쓪;ꆭ뇭쪾룃맺룃쿮닺욷퓚쫀뷧짏뗘캻늻훘튪ꆣ쇏살풴:111982쓪틔잰뗄쇏훷튪살ퟔ랶쒽몫훷뇠ꆶ쫀뷧뺭볃춳볆햪튪ꆷ\[10\];211982쓪틔뫳듖룖닺솿쇏살ퟔ죕놾쳺룖탂컅짧훷뇠ꆶ쳺룖쓪본ꆷ(죕컄)\[11\];31쮮쓠닺솿쇏살ퟔ죕놾쮮쓠탂컅짧뇠벭늿뇠ꆶ쮮쓠쓪본1998ꆷ(죕컄)\[12\];41솶폍쓜솦뗈쇏살ퟔ죕놾쓜풴놨떼짧뇠ꆶ쪯폍쓪본ꆷ(죕컄)\[13\];51퓬뒬ꆢ쳺슷믵퓋솿뗈쇏살ퟔ뎯죕탂컅짧뇠ꆶ뎯죕쓪본ꆷ(죕컄)\[14ꆣ\]컒쏇횪뗀,퓚볓릤튵ퟜ폃쮮솿훐,튱뷰ꆢ뮯릤ꆢ쪯폍튱솶ꆢ퓬횽뫍쪳욷볓릤뗈짙쫽벸룶룟뫄쮮탐튵뗄폃쮮햼2ö3틔짏ꆣ쯦ퟅ헢킩룟뫄쮮뗄샍뚯-놾쏜벯탍닺튵(믲헢킩탐튵' 1995-2004 Tsinghua Tongfang Optical Disc Co., Ltd. All rights reserved.
1웚ꆡꆡꆡꆡꆡꆡꆡꆡ볖짜럯:릤튵폃쮮쇣퓶뎤뗄쳵볾럖컶ꆪꆪ랢듯맺볒뗄뺭퇩55훐뗄샍뚯-놾쏜벯늿럖)퓚70ꆢ80쓪듺쿲랢햹훐맺볒듳맦쒣틆,뺡맜룶뇰맺볒(죧뫉삼)뗄듖룖뗈훘뮯릤닺욷닺솿퓚90쓪듺훐웚믖뢴떽샺쪷ퟮ룟쮮욽,떫듳뛠쫽랢듯맺볒뗄훘뮯릤튵틑폀풶쪧좥쇋퓚뺭볃훐뗄훷떼뗘캻ꆣ쿠펦뗘,랢듯맺볒뗄릤튵폃쮮뇘좻돶쿖복짙뗄쟷쫆ꆣ313ꆡ릤튵폃쮮폫닺튵뷡릹짽벶뗄맘쾵랢듯맺볒훘뮯릤닺욷닺솿쿂붵뗄뇭쏦풭틲쫇쪯폍헇볛틽웰뗄뺭볃캣믺,웤놾훊뗄풭틲퓲쫇랢듯맺볒뗄닺튵뷡릹퓚헢튻쪱웚평샍뚯-놾쏜벯탍쿲벼쫵-횪쪶쏜벯탍뇤ꆣ쯹틔훘뮯릤닺욷닺솿폫릤튵폃쮮뗄맘쾵쪵훊쫇닺튵뷡릹짽벶폫릤튵폃쮮뗄맘쾵ꆣ랢듯맺볒릤튵폃쮮뗄복짙쪵볊짏쫇폫닺튵뷡릹뗄짽벶솪쾵퓚튻웰뗄ꆣ쯦ퟅ랢듯맺볒릤튵샠탍평샍뚯-놾쏜벯탍쿲벼쫵-횪쪶쏜벯탍뇤,랢듯맺볒뗄릤튵폃쮮춣횹퓶뎤짵뛸쿂붵ꆣ60쓪듺랢듯맺볒뗄틔럄횯ꆢ럾ힰ튵캪듺뇭뗄샍뚯쏜벯탍닺튵쿲몫맺ꆢ첨췥ꆢ삭쏀뗈맺볒뫍뗘쟸틆,떽70ꆢ80쓪듺튱뷰ꆢ퓬뒬ꆢ웕춨뮯릤뗈놾쏜벯탍닺튵튲듳엺뗘쿲랢햹훐맺볒틆,탎돉쯹캽랢듯맺볒뗄ꆰ닺튵뿕탄뮯ꆱ쿖쿳,벴랢듯맺볒뫜뛠릫쮾퓚웤쒸맺횻놣쇴릫쮾ퟜ늿,뛸웤짺닺늿쏅뚼틆떽짺닺돉놾뗍솮뗄랢햹훐맺볒ꆣ70ꆢ80쓪듺랢듯맺볒닺튵뷡릹뗄짽벶춻돶뇭쿖퓚죽룶랽쏦:튻쫇맺쓚짺닺ퟜ횵(GDP)뗄튻ꆢ뛾ꆢ죽닺릹돉훐뗚튻닺튵뗄뇈훘붵떽10%틔쿂뗄뫜뗍뗄쮮욽,뗚뛾닺튵뗄뇈훘듯떽40%ꆫ50%뗄룟럥뫳뛸쿂붵,뗚죽닺튵뗄뇈훘웕뇩짏짽늢듯떽60%틔짏;뛾쫇퓚뗚뛾닺튵쓚늿,샍뚯-놾쏜벯탍뗄럄횯ꆢ튱뷰ꆢ쪯폍뮯릤ꆢ퓬뒬뗈탐튵훰늽죃캻룸벼쫵-횪쪶쏜벯탍뗄뗧ퟓꆢ탂닄쇏뗈탂탋탐튵;뗚죽,퓚뒫춳탐튵쓚늿,튲돶쿖쇋룟벶뮯쟷쫆,폈웤쫇룟뫄쓜ꆢ룟컛좾뗄볓릤뮷뷚틆떽랢햹훐맺볒,퓚랢듯맺볒횻놣쇴퇐뺿뾪랢ꆢ쫐뎡펪쿺뗈늿쏅ꆣ랢듯맺볒웕춨뮯릤ꆢ튱뷰뗈룟뫄쮮탐튵뗄캮쯵횱뷓퓬돉쇋웤릤튵폃쮮솿뗄복짙ꆣ뇭3룸돶쇋벸룶랢듯맺볒뗄릤튵폃쮮복짙쪱뗄뗚뛾닺튵GDP뇈훘뫍뻍튵뇈훘ꆣ릤튵폃쮮복짙쪱뛾닺GDP뇈훘뗄랶캧,ퟮ룟뗄쫇죕놾캪45%,ퟮ뗍뗄쫇램맺캪30%;뛾닺뻍튵뇈훘뗄랶캧,ퟮ룟뗄쫇뗂맺캪38%,ퟮ뗍뗄쫇냄듳샻퇇캪2813%ꆣ듓뇭3뮹뿉뾴돶:돽쇋죕놾,웤쯼랢듯맺볒뗄뗚뛾닺튵GDP뇈훘뫍뻍튵뇈훘듯떽뚥럥뗄쪱볤뚼쿈폚릤튵폃쮮듯떽뚥럥뗄쪱볤ꆣ듳늿럖랢듯맺볒뗚뛾닺튵뗄GDP뇈훘뫍뻍튵뇈훘퓚쪯폍캣믺횮잰뻍틑뾪쪼붵뗍,뛸릤튵폃쮮뗄복짙뚼돶쿖퓚쪯폍캣믺횮뫳ꆣ웤훐뗄풭틲쫇:쯤좻퓚50ꆢ60쓪듺랢듯맺볒뗄뗚뛾닺튵뗄랢햹쯙뛈뾪쪼실뫳폚뗚죽닺튵,틲뛸뗚뛾닺튵뗄GDP뇈훘뫍뻍튵뇈훘뾪쪼붵뗍,떫뗚뛾닺튵ꆢ폈웤쫇ퟷ캪떱쪱뗄횧훹닺튵뗄훘뮯릤탐튵뗄뻸뛔맦쒣죔퓚삩헅,쯹틔릤튵폃쮮죔볌탸쯦횮퓶뎤ꆣ횻폐떽쪯폍캣믺틽웰룟뫄쮮뗄쪯뮯ꆢ튱뷰뗈훘뮯릤탐튵뗄닺솿뻸뛔쿂붵쪱,릤튵폃쮮닅뾪쪼복짙ꆣ늻맽,뇈뷏뇭3훐릤튵폃쮮뗄복짙쪱볤뫍뛾닺뇈훘쏷쿔복짙뗄쪱볤,뿉틔뾴돶랢듯맺볒릤튵폃쮮복짙뗄쪱볤폫뛾닺뇈훘쏷쿔복짙뗄쪱볤쫇뫜뷓뷼뗄ꆣ뗚뛾닺튵뇈훘퓚듯떽뚥럥캪쿂붵뫳,뾪쪼뷗뛎뗄쿂붵쫇뇈뷏뮺싽뫍랴뢴뗄,떫떽쒳룶쪱볤뫳,뛾닺뇈훘뗄쿂붵뾪쪼볓뿬늢뫜짙랴뢴ꆣ뛾닺뇈훘쏷쿔복짙뗄쪱볤횸뗄뻍쫇헢튻쿂붵볓뿬뗄쪱볤ꆣ쯼뗄컯샭틢틥쫇훘뮯릤탐튵퓚퓶뎤럅싽ꆢ뇈훘붵뗍튻뛎쪱볤뫳,웤맦쒣뾪쪼뻸뛔캮쯵ꆣ쯤좻훘뮯릤탐튵뗄뻸뛔캮쯵늢늻폫릤튵폃쮮뗄복짙췪좫튻튻뛔펦,샽죧60쓪듺죰뗤릤튵폃쮮뗄복짙폫훘뮯릤탐튵쎻폐맘쾵,쿠랴볓쓃듳퓚70쓪듺쒩80쓪듺돵뺭샺쇋훘뮯릤탐튵뗄캮쯵떫릤튵폃' 1995-2004 Tsinghua Tongfang Optical Disc Co., Ltd. All rights reserved.
56뗘ꆡꆡ샭ꆡꆡ뿆ꆡꆡ톧ꆡꆡ뷸ꆡꆡ햹ꆡꆡꆡꆡꆡꆡꆡꆡꆡꆡꆡ20뻭쮮늢캴춬늽복짙,떫쫇뛔듳뛠쫽랢듯맺볒릤튵폃쮮뗄복짙폫훘뮯릤탐튵뗄캮쯵뚼폐뫜뫃뗄뛔펦맘쾵(닎볻뇭3룷맺릤튵폃쮮복짙쪱볤폫뛾닺뇈훘쏷쿔복짙쪱볤뗄뛔뇈ꆣ탨힢틢뗄쫇평폚좱랦훰쓪뗄폃쮮쇏,쯹틔릤튵폃쮮복짙뗄쪱볤쫇듳훂에뛏뗄,폫쪵볊복짙쓪럝뿉쓜잰뫳닮벸쓪)ꆣ뇭3ꆡ랢듯맺볒릤튵폃쮮평짽붵폫닺튵뷡릹짽벶뗄쪱볤뛔펦맘쾵Tab13ꆡThecorrelationoftheclimaxtimeofindustrialwaterwithdrawwithindustrialstructureupgradingindevelopedcountries쏀ꆡ맺죕ꆡ놾뗂ꆡ맺램ꆡ맺펢ꆡ맺틢듳샻냄듳샻퇇릤튵폃쮮복짙쪱볤1981197419891989198519811980폃쮮복짙쪱뛾닺GDP뇈훘ö%34453630344135폃쮮복짙쪱뛾닺뻍튵뇈훘ö%28193613383031372813뛾닺GDP뇈훘랢짺쪱볤1951197419621965195019741957뚥럥뛔펦뇈훘ö%40455549494442뛾닺GDP뇈훘랢짺쪱볤1982197419851981198519831982쏷쿔복짙뛔펦뇈훘ö%33453534344034뛾닺뻍튵뇈훘랢짺쪱볤1957197319701964195719711957복짙뛔펦뇈훘ö%32173616503919504449쇏살풴:쫀뷧뺭볃폫헾훎퇐뺿쯹ꆴ쫀뷧뺭볃ꆵ뇠벭늿뇠,떱듺쫀뷧뺭볃쪵폃듳좫\[15\];UnitedNations,StatisticalYear2book1989-1998\[16ꆣ\]314ꆡ룼퇏룱뗄뮷뺳놣뮤튪쟳뛔릤튵폃쮮뗄틖훆ퟷ폃룟뇪ힼ뗄뮷뺳튪쟳,볈튪쟳복짙듓ퟔ좻쮮쳥훐뗄좡쮮솿,폖튪쟳복짙럏쮮쿲ퟔ좻쮮쳥훐뗄업럅솿,듓솽랽쏦뚼췆뷸쇋릤튵폃떭쮮좡쮮솿뗄복짙ꆣ죧죰뗤뫍뫉삼풶퓚쪯폍캣믺횮잰뗄60쓪듺릤튵폃쮮뻍뾪쪼복짙,훷튪췆뚯틲쯘뻍쫇뮷놣뛔럏쮮업럅뗄쿞훆ꆣ1964쓪죰뗤춨맽램싉,잿훆튪쟳쳡룟릤튵폃쮮훘뢴샻폃싊,쳡룟컛쮮업럅뇪ힼ,복짙컛쮮업럅솿,쪹뗃릤튵폃쮮퓚1966쓪뾪쪼캪쿂붵ꆣ쏀맺릤튵폃떭쮮좡쮮솿퓚80쓪듺돵돶쿖복짙튲폫1977쓪쪵쪩룼퇏룱뗄컛좾뿘훆램맦폐맘\[2ꆣ\]50ꆢ60쓪듺쫇뗚뛾듎쫀뷧듳햽뫳컷랽랢듯맺볒뺭볃랢햹뗄믆뷰쪱웚,늻뷶죕놾뫍뗂맺뗄뺭볃톸쯙믖뢴늢풾뻓쫀뷧뺭볃ퟜ솿뗚뛾뫍뗚죽캻,쏀맺ꆢ볓쓃듳ꆢ냄듳샻퇇ꆢ탂컷삼뫍컷얷웤쯼맺볒뚼믱뗃쇋뷏뿬뗄랢햹ꆣ떫춬쪱,50ꆢ60쓪듺튲쫇컷랽맺볒뮷뺳뛱뮯ꆢ뛱탔뮷뺳릫몦쫂볾욵욵랢짺뗄쪱웚ꆣ튻랽쏦닒춴뗄뷌통쪹죋쏇뺯탑,쇭튻랽쏦짺믮쮮욽뗄쳡룟쪹죋쏇닺짺쇋룼룟뗄뮷뺳튪쟳,틲듋듓60쓪듺뫳웚뾪쪼,컷랽맺볒쿆웰쇋뫤뫤쇒쇒뗄뮷뺳놣뮤퓋뚯ꆣ헢훖뷏룟뗄뮷뺳튪쟳컞틉쫇랢듯맺볒릤튵폃쮮복짙뗄짮뿌놳뺰횮튻ꆣ룼퇏룱뗄뮷뺳램맦늻뷶횱뷓튪쟳복짙떭쮮좡폃솿뫍컛쮮업럅솿,뛸쟒춨맽뛔룟뫄쮮ꆢ룟컛좾탐튵뗄돍랣캪닺튵뷡릹짽벶쳡릩쇋잿듳뚯솦ꆣ315ꆡ랢듯맺볒릤튵폃쮮뇤뚯맽돌훐쫐뎡믺훆뗄ퟷ폃쯤좻쪯폍볛룱짏헇ꆢ닺튵뷡릹짽벶ꆢ룼퇏룱뗄뮷뺳놣뮤튪쟳뛔랢듯맺볒릤튵폃쮮복짙폐횱뷓뗄ퟷ폃,떫늻쓜뫶싔쫐뎡뺭볃쳥훆뗄믹뒡ퟷ폃ꆣ쪯폍볛룱짏헇횮쯹틔뛔컷랽랢듯맺볒뗄뺭볃폐톸쏍뗄펰쿬뛸틽웰뺭볃뷡릹뗄톸쯙뗷헻,뻍틲캪컷랽랢듯맺볒쪵탐뗄쫇쫐뎡뺭볃훆뛈,닺욷짺닺뫍풴엤훃뇘탫룺쯦쫐뎡뗄볛룱탅뫅ꆣ죧맻짌욷볛룱뫍풴뗄엤훃평볆뮮뛸늻쫇쫐뎡살뻶뚨,풴엤훃뻍믡쪧좥쿲떼,닺튵뷡릹짽벶뗄늽랥뻍뿉쓜놻듲싒,뗍뫄' 1995-2004 Tsinghua Tongfang Optical Disc Co., Ltd. All rights reserved.
1웚ꆡꆡꆡꆡꆡꆡꆡꆡ볖짜럯:릤튵폃쮮쇣퓶뎤뗄쳵볾럖컶ꆪꆪ랢듯맺볒뗄뺭퇩57쮮뗄닺튵뻍뿉쓜퓚뺺헹훐햽쪤늻쇋룟뫄쮮닺튵ꆣ샽죧죴릩쮮볛룱평헾뢮훆뚨쟒뚨뗃뫜뗍뛸뎤웚늻뇤,뗍뫄쮮닺튵쳦듺룟뫄쮮닺튵뗄뷸돌뻍늻믡뫜쮳샻ꆣ랢듯맺볒뗄릤튵폃쮮훘뢴샻폃싊웕뇩뷏룟,뛸짧믡훷틥맺볒뗄릤튵폃쮮훘뢴샻폃싊웕뇩뷏뗍,뻍폫솽샠맺볒뗄쮮볛훆뛈늻춬폐맘ꆣ짧믡훷틥맺볒뗄쮮볛췹췹풶뗍폚릩쮮돉놾뛸쟒벸쪮쓪늻뇤,웰늻떽췆뚯뷚풼폃쮮뗄ퟷ폃;쫐뎡뺭볃맺볒뗄쮮볛믹놾랴펳쇋릩쮮돉놾냼삨럏쮮뒦샭돉놾,뷏룟뗄쮮볛웰떽쇋맄샸뷚풼폃쮮뗄ퟷ폃ꆣ랢듯맺볒릤튵폃쮮훘뢴샻폃싊웕뇩듯떽80%틔짏ꆣ4ꆡ킡뷡랢듯맺볒릤튵폃쮮복짙뗄풭틲훷튪폐틔쿂벸룶랽쏦:(1)룼퇏룱뗄뮷놣튪쟳뛔럏쮮업럅뗄쿞훆ꆣ룟뇪ힼ뗄뮷뺳튪쟳,볈튪쟳복짙듓ퟔ좻쮮쳥훐뗄좡쮮솿,폖튪쟳복짙럏쮮쿲ퟔ좻쮮쳥훐뗄업럅솿,듓솽랽쏦뚼췆뷸쇋릤튵폃떭쮮좡쮮솿뗄복짙ꆣ(2)닺튵뷡릹짽벶,벴닺튵샠탍평뫄쮮뛠뗄샍뚯-놾쏜벯탍쿲뫄쮮짙뗄벼쫵-횪쪶쏜벯탍뇤ꆣ닺튵뷡릹짽벶쫇랢듯맺볒릤튵폃쮮복짙뗄룹놾풭틲횮튻ꆣ(3)쫐뎡뺭볃쳥훆뗄믹뒡ퟷ폃ꆣ쫐뎡뺭볃쳥훆쫇랢듯맺볒닺튵뷡릹짽벶뫍릤튵폃쮮뇤뚯뗄믹놾쳵볾ꆣ웤뇭쿖횮튻쫇뷏룟뗄쫐뎡뮯뗄릩쮮볛룱뫍업컛럑,쪹랢듯맺볒릤튵폃쮮뗄훘뢴샻폃싊웕뇩듯떽80%틔짏ꆣ릤튵폃쮮샻폃싊뗄쳡룟쫇랢듯맺볒릤튵폃쮮복짙뗄횱뷓풭틲횮튻ꆣ(4)쪯폍볛룱짏헇뗄폕랢ퟷ폃ꆣ쪯폍볛룱뗄짏헇쯤늻쫇릤튵폃쮮복짙뗄놾훊풭틲,떫좴쫇랢듯맺볒릤튵폃쮮웕뇩복짙뗄폕랢틲쯘ꆣ쪯폍볛룱짏헇틽웰뗄쓜풴캣믺뫍뺭볃캣믺,늻떫쪹릤튵닺욷닺솿쿂붵,횱뷓폕랢릤튵폃쮮복짙,뛸쟒뺭볃캣믺쪱웚튲뻍쫇닺튵뷡릹뗄뗷헻웚,쪯폍볛룱짏헇틽웰뗄뺭볃캣믺쪹랢듯맺볒뗄닺튵뷡릹뷸죫쇋톸쯙뗄뗷헻웚ꆣ쯤좻랢듯맺볒닺튵뷡릹뗄뗷헻쫇뇘좻뗄맽돌,벴쪹쎻폐쪯폍볛룱짏헇튲믡랢짺,떫쪯폍볛룱짏헇듳듳볓뿬쇋헢튻뷸돌ꆣ쇭췢,룶뇰랢듯맺볒릤튵폃쮮복짙튲폫쮮풴뷴좱폐맘(뛠쫽랢듯맺볒컞듋컊쳢,틲캪듳뛠쫽랢듯맺볒쮮풴뾪랢샻폃싊죔좻뫜뗍)ꆣ샽죧뇈샻쪱뗄쮮풴뾪랢샻폃싊내ퟜ쮮풴솿쯣듯떽72%,내떱뗘ퟔ닺쮮풴솿쯣듯떽108%,쮮풴뇈뷏뛌좱ꆣ룼캪뗤탍뗄쫇늻쫴폚랢듯맺볒뗄틔즫쇐ꆣ틔즫쇐뗄쮮풴뾪랢샻폃싊틑뎬맽100%(1989쓪내떱뗘쮮풴솿쯣듯떽109%,내ퟜ쮮풴솿쯣튲듯떽86%),틑벸뫵쎻폐퓶볓릩쮮뗄뿉쓜탔ꆣ틲듋캪쇋싺ퟣ뺭볃랢햹뗄쮮풴탨쟳,틔즫쇐헾뢮늿쏅캪쎿룶탐튵훆뚨뗄떥캻닺욷폃쮮뚨뛮퓚1967-1987쓪20쓪볤복짙쇋70%(Worldresources1987)ꆣퟜ횮,룹뻝잰쏦뗄럖컶,뿉횪랢듯맺볒릤튵폃쮮복짙뗄쳵볾늻쫇떥튻뗄,냼삨틔쿂벸룶랽쏦:쫐뎡뺭볃쳥훆쫇뇘튪뗄쳥훆놣횤,뷏룟뗄뮷뺳튪쟳쫇릤튵폃쮮복짙뗄뫪맛짧믡놳뺰,뗚뛾닺튵쯹햼뗄GDP뇈훘뫍뻍튵뇈훘뗄붵뗍쫇릤튵폃쮮복짙뗄잰ퟠ,닺튵짽벶ꆢ뗚뛾닺튵뇈훘뗄쏷쿔붵뗍ꆪꆪ웤쪵훊쫇룟뫄쮮뗄훘뮯릤탐튵뗄맦쒣뗄뻸뛔캮쯵ꆪꆪ벸뫵쫇릤튵폃쮮춣횹퓶뎤뗄돤럖쳵볾,릤튵폃쮮샻폃싊뗄쳡룟쫇벼쫵짏뗄놣횤,폃쮮돉놾짏짽(죧돩쮮뗄폍볛믲뗧볛짏헇)뫍쮮풴뛌좱쫇릤튵폃쮮복짙뗄잿뮯틲쯘ꆣ폫랢듯맺볒릤튵폃쮮복짙쪱믺뛔펦ퟮ뫃뗄쫇뗚뛾닺튵뗄GDP뇈훘뫍뻍튵뇈훘뗄쏷쿔복짙쪱볤ꆣ룹뻝7룶뷏듳뗄랢' 1995-2004 Tsinghua Tongfang Optical Disc Co., Ltd. All rights reserved.
58뗘ꆡꆡ샭ꆡꆡ뿆ꆡꆡ톧ꆡꆡ뷸ꆡꆡ햹ꆡꆡꆡꆡꆡꆡꆡꆡꆡꆡꆡ20뻭듯맺볒뗄쇏춳볆,릤튵폃쮮복짙쪱뗚뛾닺튵뗄GDP뇈훘랶캧캪30%ꆫ45%,뗚뛾닺튵뗄뻍튵뇈훘랶캧캪28%ꆫ38%ꆣ룹뻝랢듯맺볒뗄뺭퇩,냼삨훐맺퓚쓚뗄랢햹훐맺볒뗄릤튵탨쮮솿동퓧튲믡쯦ퟅ닺튵짽벶뛸복짙ꆣ닎뾼컄쿗:\[1\ꆡ]뷰럯뻽.뮪놱욽풭돇쫐폃쮮컊쳢퇐뺿[J\].뗘샭뿆톧뷸햹,2000,19(1):17ꆫ24.\[2\ꆡ]샮붨탂.뗂맺틽폃쮮풴놣뮤쟸뗄붨솢뫍놣뮤[J\].뗘샭뿆톧뷸햹,1998,17(4).\[3\ꆡ]볖짜럯,뾵뗂폂.쳡룟쮮볛뛔쮮풴탨쟳뗄펰쿬럖컶ꆪꆪ틔뮪놱욽풭캪샽[J\].쮮뿆톧뷸햹,2000,38(3):49ꆫ53.\[4\ꆡ]볖짜럯,뾵뗂폂.쮮풴탨쟳풤닢폫맜샭뗄뫋탄ꆪꆪ쮮풴폐킧탨쟳[A\].21쫀볍돵웚듳돇쫐뿉돖탸랢햹뗄쮮풴놣헏쓜솦맺볊쳖싛믡듺뇭싛컄벯[C\].쳬뷲,20002528ꆫ10.\[5\ꆡ]볖짜럯,헅쪿럦.훐맺폃쮮뫎쪱듯떽뚥럥?\[J]쮮뿆톧뷸햹,2000,38(4).\[6\ꆡ],1987,1988ꆫ89,1990ꆫ91,1994ꆫ95,1996ꆫ97,1998ꆫ99[M\].NewYork:BasicBooks,Inc.\[7\ꆡ]:TNOCommitteeonHydrologicalResearch[M\].TheNether2landOrganizationforAppliedScientificResearch,1986.\[8\ꆡ]쮮뗀닺튵탂컅짧.쮮뗀쓪본1988ꆫ1996(죕컄)[M\].\[9\ꆡ]:ööö.\[10\ꆡ]랶쒽몫훷뇠.쫀뷧뺭볃춳볆햪튪[M\].놱뺩:죋쏱돶냦짧,1985.\[11\ꆡ](죕놾)쳺룖탂컅짧훷뇠.쳺룖쓪본1997(죕컄)[M\].\[12\ꆡ](죕놾)쮮쓠탂컅짧뇠벭늿뇠.쮮쓠쓪본1998(죕컄)[M\].\[13\ꆡ](죕놾)쓜풴놨떼짧뇠.쪯폍쓪본1997(죕컄)[M\].\[14\ꆡ](죕놾)뎯죕탂컅짧뇠.뎯죕쓪본1985ꆫ1997(죕컄)[M\].\[15\ꆡ]쫀뷧뺭볃폫헾훎퇐뺿쯹ꆴ쫀뷧뺭볃ꆵ뇠벭늿뇠.떱듺쫀뷧뺭볃쪵폃듳좫[M\].훐맺뺭볃돶냦짧,1990.\[16\ꆡ]ꆫ1998\M[\].TheLinkagebetweenIndustrialWaterUseDecreaseandIndustrialStructuralUpgradeꆪꆪExperienceofDevelopedCountriesJIAShao2feng(InstituteofGeographicalandNaturalResourceResearch,CAS,Beijingꆡ100101China)Abstract:It’’ses2peciallyunbelievablethatindustrialwaterdemandwilldoubleinevery10yearsorsoforeverydevelopingcountry,becausedevelopedcountrieshavesetexamplesthatindustrialwateruse(hereitmeansfreshwaterwithdraw)maydecreasewhenindustrialstructurechangedfromlabor-and-capital-intensivetypetotechnology-and-knowledge-in2' 1995-2004 Tsinghua Tongfang Optical Disc Co., Ltd. All rights reserved.
1웚ꆡꆡꆡꆡꆡꆡꆡꆡ볖짜럯:릤튵폃쮮쇣퓶뎤뗄쳵볾럖컶ꆪꆪ랢듯맺볒뗄뺭퇩,,industrialstructuralup2grade,especiallythemigrationofheavy-chemicalindustriesfromdevelopedcountriestodevelopingcountries,,,,insomecountrieswaterresourcesshortageisoneofthemainreasonswhyindustrialwaterusedecreased.(Butinmostdevelopedcountriestheratiooffreshwaterwithdrawtototalwaterresourcesisstillverylow).Whenindustrialwaterusedecreasedindevelopedcountries,thecorrespondingproportionofsecondaryindustryintotalGDPrangedfrom30%to45%,whileemploymentproportionofsecondaryindustryrangedfrom28%to38%.Fromthesefigureswecangetsomequantitativeconceptsoftheconditionofindus2trialwaterusedecreaseindevelopedcountries,:Wateruse;Industrialwaterusedecrease;Industrialstructuralupgrade;De2velopedcountries' 1995-2004 Tsinghua Tongfang Optical Disc Co., Ltd. All rights reserved.
