뗚23뻭뗚9웚(ퟜ뗚141웚)ꆡꆡꆡꆡꆡꆡꆡ쾵ꆡ춳ꆡ릤ꆡ돌,쓪9퓂ꆡꆡꆡꆡꆡꆡꆡꆡꆡꆡꆡꆡꆡSystemsEngineeringSept.,2005ꆡ컄헂뇠뫅:100124098(2005)0920033204늿럖췪좫쳦듺뒴탂닺욷뗄삩즢쒣탍Ξ췵ꆡ엳1,2,쯯ꆡ2(1.컷쓏붻춨듳톧뺭볃맜샭톧풺,쯄뒨돉뚼ꆡ610000;2.맣훝듳톧,맣뚫맣훝ꆡ510091)햪ꆡ튪:퓚럖컶쿻럑헟뛔늿럖췪좫쳦듺탂닺욷닉폃탐캪뗄믹뒡짏,춨맽틽죫죏춬삩즢뗈룅쓮뫍튻쾵쇐탂뗄닎쫽,퓚튻뚨볙짨쳵볾쿂쳡돶쇋럇쳦듺쫐뎡닺욷죏춬삩즢쒣탍뫍퓚쏷컺쫐뎡훐늿럖췪좫쳦듺뒴탂닺욷뗄삩즢쒣탍ꆣ맘볼듊:쫐뎡펪쿺;탂닺욷삩즢;늿럖쳦듺훐춼럖샠뫅:F224ꆡꆡꆡ컄쿗뇪쪶싫:A1ꆡ틽퇔웤훐,Z(t)=1+Α[P(t)-P(t-1)]öP(t-1)+Βmax{0,[A(t)-A(t-1)]öA(t-1)},쾵쫽Α뇭쪾떱닺욷볛룱붵뗍Bass폚1969쓪퓚웤훸쏻뗄쫗듎릺싲삩즢쒣탍\[1\훐]죏1◊쪱틽웰뗄닺욷삩즢쯙뛈퓶뎤뗄냙럖뇈,쾵쫽Β뇭쪾떱캪튻훖탂닺욷춶죫쫐뎡뫳,웤삩즢쯙뛈훷튪쫜떽솽훖뒫능닺욷맣룦횧돶퓶볓1◊쪱틽웰뗄닺욷삩즢쯙뛈퓶뎤뗄냙춾뺶뗄펰쿬럖뇈,P(t)ꆢA(t)럖뇰뇭쪾t쪱뿌뗄볛룱뫍맣룦횧돶ꆣ:튻쫇듳훚쎽뷩(MsasMedia)뗄펰쿬,죧맣룦(췢늿펰쿬);뛾쫇죋볊붻쇷(Word2of2Mouth)뗄펰쿬,벴Bass쒣탍풭탍(1)벰웤Bass쒣탍듘(2)뚼틾몬ퟅ훖훖틑닉쓉헟뛔캴닉쓉헟뗄탻뒫(쓚늿펰쿬)ꆣ짨M캪쫐뎡잱볙짨,폐킩볙짨폫쒳킩쿖쪵짧믡쿖쿳돶죫뫜듳ꆣ볙짨훐폫솿놾컄쿠맘뗄폐:ꋙ슢뛏탔볙짨ꆣ룃볙짨쪹Bass쒣탍뷶쫊뫏,벴닉폃헟짏쿞;N(t)캪떽t쪱뿌샛믽닉폃죋쫽(믲쿺쫛솿);p캪뒴탂쾵쫽(InnovationCoefficien폚뛔좫탂닺욷(폖돆캪탂컊쫀닺욷,벴틔잰캴퓸폐맽,춨맽t),q캪쒣럂쾵쫽(ImitationCoefficien뒴탂뾪뒴쇋좫탂쫐뎡뗄닺욷)뫍췪좫슢뛏쟩뿶쿂쿖탐닺욷t),퓲t쪱뿌닉쓉뒴탂뗄죋쫽,틠벴잱퓚쪹폃헟닉폃뒴탂뗄뫪맛룅싊몯쫽캪뗄췪좫쳦듺룼탂닺욷(벴뛔쿖탐닺욷뷸탐쇋뷏듳뗄탔쓜룄ꆡn(뷸믲쳡릩쇋뷏듳뗄뿉볻볛횵뗄탂닺욷,헢훖룄뷸닺욷ퟮ훕t)=dN(t)ödtꆡꆡꆡꆡꆡꆡꆡꆡꆡ=p[M-N(t)\]+qN(t)[M-N(t)붫믡췪좫좡듺쿖탐닺욷)뷸탐삩즢퇐뺿;ꋚ닉폃헟쫇컞닮]=틬뗄볙짨ꆣ헢듓Bass쒣탍M뫍N(t)뗄뚨틥뿉틔뾴돶ꆣ룃\[p+qN(t)\]M\[-N(t)](1)ꆡꆡBass쒣탍풭탍랢뇭뫳,훚뛠톧헟틔웤캪믹뒡뷸탐쇋솽룶볙짨쪹죋쏇횱뷓샻폃쯼쏇퇐뺿늿럖췪좫쳦듺탂닺욷듳솿뗄퇐뺿\[2,3ꆣ\]튻쫇뛔쒣탍훐죽룶닎쫽pꆢq뫍M뗄횵뷸뗄삩즢맽폚뫪맛,늻쓜뺫좷랴펳뒴탂닺욷퓚룷늻춬ퟓ쫐뎡탐맀볆훐삩즢쯙뛈틔벰늻춬ퟓ쫐뎡뛔탂닺욷삩즢뗄쿠뮥펰쿬ꆣ,벺퇐뺿돶뛠훖맀쯣헢킩닎쫽뗄돌탲\[4\];뛾쫇뛔Bass믹놾쒣탍뷸탐쇋삩햹,죧뾼싇닺욷볛룱뫍맣룦횧돶쫂쪵짏,퓚룟뛈랢듯뗄쿖쪵짧믡훐,쿻럑헟틲퇇컄뮯ꆢ뗈펪쿺ퟩ뫏뇤뚯뛔탂닺욷삩즢뗄펰쿬,틔쪹쒣탍룼볓폫쿖짧믡뷗닣ꆢ쫜뷌폽돌뛈ꆢ쓪쇤ꆢ탔뇰ꆢ쫕죫ꆢ룶탔뗈늻춬퓚웤쪵쫀뷧뗄쪵볊뒴탂닉폃탐캪컇뫏,듓뛸삩듳펦폃랶캧믲쳡쿻럑욷캶뫍짺믮랽램짏췹췹듦퓚뫜듳닮틬,벴닺욷닉폃헟룟풤닢ힼ좷탔,늢탎돉쇋쯹캽Bass쒣탍듘\[5,6\];죽쫇헫뛔쫇틬훊뗄ꆣ웳튵캪쇋퓚쫐뎡뺺헹훐좡뗃폅쫆,뻍튪붫헻쳥룼캪뢴퓓뗄쿻럑헟탐캪믲쿞훆쳵볾,죧맟탔릺싲벰릩펦쿞쫐뎡쾸럖캪튻좺좺폐샠쯆횪뻵뫍샻틦튪쟳뗄쿻럑헟좺쳥훆뗈룼짮죫뗘퇐뺿탂닺욷삩즢\[7,8,9\],뗈뗈ꆣꆪꆪ쫐뎡쾸럖ꆣ좻뫳헫뛔쒳튻쾸럖쫐뎡뗄쳘쫢탨쟳,짺닺춨뎣폃Z(돶룼쫜룃쾸럖쫐뎡뮶펭뗄탂닺욷ꆣ폫좫탂닺욷뫍쿖탐닺욷t)뇭쪾펪쿺ퟩ뫏뇤뚯뛔탂닺욷삩즢뗄펰쿬,폐죧쿂튻냣릫쪽뗄췪좫쳦듺룼탂닺욷늻춬,헢킩탂닺욷쫇쏅캪쳘뚨ퟓ쫐:n(뎡짨볆뗄,쯤좻쯼쏇뇈풭닺욷룼쓜싺ퟣ룃ퟓ쫐뎡탨쟳,떫t)=\[p+qN(t)\]M\[-N(t)]Z(t)(2)Ξ쫕룥죕웚:2005205219쿺ퟷ헟볲뷩:췵엳(19552),쓐,뫓쓏죋,컷쓏붻춨듳톧뺭볃맜샭톧풺늩쪿퇐뺿짺,맣훝듳톧뺭볃폫맜샭톧풺뷌쫚,퇐뺿랽쿲:쫐뎡펪;쯯(19582),얮,뫾쓏죋,맣훝듳톧탅쾢폫믺뗧톧풺뢱뷌쫚,퇐뺿랽쿲:믺킵짨볆폫훆퓬,벼쫵뒴탂ꆣ
34쾵ꆡ춳ꆡ릤ꆡ돌ꆡꆡꆡꆡꆡꆡꆡꆡꆡꆡꆡꆡꆡꆡꆡꆡꆡꆡ2005쓪늢럇쓜쫜떽헻룶쫐뎡쿻럑헟뗄뮶펭,틲듋,헢킩탂닺욷횻뎡Mii훐삩즢ꆣ믡늿럖췪좫쳦듺풭닺욷ꆣ웳튵퓚훆뚨탂닺욷랢햹햽싔,냼폫Bass폐맘쿻럑헟쫇컞닮틬탔볙짨늻춬,퓚뷸탐늿삨쒿뇪쫐뎡톡퓱ꆢ쫐뎡뷸죫쪱믺ꆢ맣룦쫜훚럖컶ꆢ듙쿺ퟩ뫏럖췪좫쳦듺퇐뺿쪱늻뿉믘뇜쿻럑헟뗄닮틬탔뫍죋볊릵춨쪱탨튪쇋뷢탂닺욷퓚룷쒿뇪ퟓ쫐뎡훐뗄삩즢쯙뛈ꆢ펰쿬탂뗄랱퓓탔ꆣ닺욷삩즢뗄룷훖틲쯘벰펰쿬솦뛈뗈룼뛠탅쾢,뛸Bass쒣죧쳦듺쫐뎡M13뫍M23쯤춬캪얮탔쫐뎡,떫퇇컄뮯ꆢ믩탍(듘)좴늻쓜쳡릩헢킩탅쾢ꆣ컒쏇퓚뛔늿럖췪좫쳦듺탂닺틶ힴ뿶ꆢ쓪쇤닣듎ꆢ쫜뷌폽돌뛈ꆢ볒춥쫕죫뗈뿉쓜폐뫜듳쟸욷뗄쿻럑헟닉폃탐캪쿪뺡럖컶뗄믹뒡짏,춨맽틽죫죏춬삩뇰ꆣ죧M13캪캴믩얮탔쫐뎡,M23캪벺믩얮탔쫐뎡,믲M13캪즢뗈룅쓮뫍튻쾵쇐탂뗄닎쫽,퓚튻뚨볙짨쳵볾쿂쳡돶쇋럇폐뷏룟쫕죫뗄돇쫐얮탔쫐뎡,M23캪뗍쫕죫뗄얩듥얮탔쫐쳦듺쫐뎡닺욷죏춬삩즢쒣탍뫍퓚쏷컺쫐뎡훐늿럖췪좫쳦뎡,헢킩닮뇰믡떼훂늻춬쳦듺ퟓ쫐뎡뛔늿럖췪좫쳦듺닺욷듺뒴탂닺욷뗄삩즢쒣탍ꆣ맣룦뗈듙쿺믮뚯뗄쏴룐뛈늻춬,룷늻춬쳦듺닺욷ퟓ쫐뎡뗄죋볊붻쇷쮮욽튲뿉쓜폐뫜듳닮뇰ꆣ2ꆡ믹놾뚨틥폫볙짨폖죧쳦듺쫐뎡M13뫍M23횮볤뿉틔늻뮥쿠펰쿬,튲뿉틔뚨틥1ꆡ쯹캽늿럖췪좫쳦듺뒴탂닺욷(틔쿂볲돆탂닺뮥쿠펰쿬ꆣ퓚뮥쿠펰쿬쟩뿶쿂,M13뛔M23뗄펰쿬솦뛈폫M23욷)쫇횸뛔늿럖쿻럑헟뛸퇔뒴탂닺욷폅폚풭닺욷,쯻쏇퓚뛔M13뗄펰쿬솦뛈튲뿉쓜믡폐닮뇰ꆣ죧쒸쟗뛔얮뛹뗄펰쿬닉폃뒴탂닺욷뫳붫돉캪쯼뗄훒돏맋뿍;뛸뛔웤쯼쿻럑헟뛸춨뎣듳폚얮뛹뛔쒸쟗뗄펰쿬ꆣ퇔뒴탂닺욷뮹늻죧풭닺욷,쯻쏇믲헟룹놾늻믡닉폃뒴탂닺퓙죧,뺡맜MøM3캪쓐탔쫐뎡,쯻쏇쫴폚럇쳦듺쫐뎡,욷,믲헟닉폃뫳늻싺틢죔폃믘풭닺욷ꆣ웤훐뗄쿻럑헟늻믡좥닉폃뒴탂닺욷,떫쯻쏇튲뿉쓜믡쫜떽볙짨1ꆡ탂닺욷뷸죫쫐뎡잰,솽욷없A1ꆢA2췪좫슢뛏욷없A3뗄맣룦뗈듙쿺믮뚯뫍죋볊붻쇷뗄펰쿬뛸죏춬얮탔쒳샠닺욷쫐뎡,A1ꆢA2솽훖욷없닺욷(틔쿂춳돆풭닺욷)룷펦룃쪹폃룃닺욷좥쳦듺풭닺욷,뷸뛸좥펰쿬얮탔(쒸쟗ꆢ럲폐쳘뗣,틲듋룷폐ퟔ벺뗄맋뿍좺쳥,늢쟒췪좫럖샫,벴욫낮죋ꆢ얮뛹ꆢ얮춬쫂뗈)닉폃탂닺욷ꆣA1욷없닺욷뗄맋뿍뻶뛔늻믡좥릺싲A2욷없뗄닺욷,욫낮캪쇋쏨쫶헢킩쿖쿳,컒쏇틽죫튻킩탂뗄룅쓮ꆣA2욷없뗄맋뿍튲늻믡좥릺싲A1욷없뗄닺욷ꆣ닺짺헢훖ힴ뚨틥4ꆡ좰떼닉폃쾵쫽ꆣ컒쏇돆럇쳦듺쫐뎡훐뛔탂닺첬뗄풭틲럇뎣뛠,뿉쓜쫇평폚A1ꆢA2폐늻춬뗄탔쓜ꆢ훊뗘ꆢ욷죏춬뗄쿻럑헟쿲쳦듺쫐뎡훐뗄쿻럑헟뒫능폐샻폚뒴탂뿚캶ꆢ맦룱뗈ꆣ닺욷삩즢뗄탅쾢캪좰떼닉폃탐캪,좰떼닉폃탐캪솦뛈뗄듳헻룶쫐뎡뗄ퟜ솿캪M,A1ꆢA2욷없퓚뒴탂랢짺잰뗄룷킡폃튻룶탂뗄닎쫽r뇭쪾,돆캪좰떼닉폃쾵쫽ꆣퟔ뗄쫐뎡ퟜ솿럖뇰캪M1뫍M2,M1+M2=M.뚨틥5ꆡ좰떼쒣럂쾵쫽ꆣ컒쏇돆쒳쳦듺ퟓ쫐뎡훐뗄틑볙짨2ꆡ쒳웳튵(룃웳튵뿉틔쫇욷없A1ꆢA2뗄짺닺웳닉폃헟뛔쇭튻쳦듺쫐뎡ퟓ쫐뎡훐뗄캴닉폃헟뒫능폐샻폚튵,튲뿉틔쫇탂뷸죫쫐뎡뗄쇭튻뺺헹웳튵)헫뛔쳘뚨ퟓ쫐뒴탂닺욷삩즢뗄탅쾢캪좰떼쒣럂탐캪,좰떼쒣럂탐캪솦뛈뎡M3퇐랢쇋튻훖뒴탂닺욷,늢퓚쪱뿌t=0틔욷없A3뷸죫뗄듳킡폃닎쫽s뇭쪾,돆캪좰떼쒣럂쾵쫽ꆣ쫐뎡,욷없A3퓚쫐뎡M3훐쫇풭닺욷뗄췪좫쳦듺닺욷ꆣ뚨틥6ꆡ럇쳦듺쫐뎡죏춬ꆣ횸럇쳦듺쫐뎡M11ꆢM22훐뗄쫐뎡M1뫍M2퓚욷없A3뷸죫쫐뎡뫳붫훰붥럖뮯,M1쿻럑헟죏춬쳦듺쫐뎡M13ꆢM23훐뗄쿻럑헟펦룃닉폃탂닺욷럖뮯캪ퟓ쫐뎡M11뫍M13,M2럖뮯캪ퟓ쫐뎡M22뫍M23.ퟓ좡듺풭닺욷뗄탐캪ꆣ쫐뎡M13뫍M23평쫔폃A3욷없닺욷뫳럇뎣싺틢ꆢ늢돉캪A3뛔폚쒳킩닺욷샠뇰뛸퇔럇쳦듺쫐뎡죏춬뛔폚늿럖췪욷없뗄훒돏맋뿍뗄쿻럑헟ퟩ돉,쿔좻M3=M13+M23;뛸좫쳦듺닺욷삩즢웰ퟅ뻙ퟣ쟡훘뗄ퟷ폃,죧뢸쒸믲헉럲뛔탂Mii(i=1,2)훐뗄맋뿍뿉쓜룹놾늻믡쫔폃탂닺욷,믲퓚쫔닺욷뗄첬뛈뛔웤ퟓ얮믲웞ퟓ뫎쪱닉폃탂닺욷뿉쓜훁맘훘폃A3욷없닺욷뫳룐떽늢늻싺틢,죔폃믘A1욷없닺욷ꆣ튪,믽벫죏춬뗄첬뛈믡볓쯙쯻쏇닉폃탂닺욷,쿻벫럱뚨뗄뚨틥2ꆡ컒쏇돆M3캪탂닺욷뗄쳦듺쫐뎡(볲돆쳦듺쫐첬뛈믡퇓뮺쯻쏇닉폃탂닺욷ꆣ뎡),MøM3캪탂닺욷뗄럇쳦듺쫐뎡(볲돆럇쳦듺쫐뎡)뚨틥7ꆡ뒴탂죏춬쾵쫽ꆣ컒쏇돆럇쳦듺쫐뎡훐뗄쿻럑뚨틥3ꆡ쯹캽쏷컺쫐뎡쫇횸욷없A3닺욷닮틬쳘헷쏷헟쫜듳훚쎽뷩뗄펰쿬뛸죏춬탂닺욷뗄탐캪캪뒴탂죏춬탐쿔,틲듋쫐뎡M3럇뎣쏷좷,A3횻믡퓚M3훐삩즢,늻믡퓚캪,뒴탂죏춬탐캪솦뛈뗄듳킡폃닎쫽P뇭쪾,돆캪뒴탂죏MøM3훐삩즢ꆣ춬쾵쫽ꆣ죧,욷없A1ꆢA2풭놾뚼쫇쓐얮솽탔뚼뿉틔쪹폃뗄닺뚨틥8ꆡ쒣럂죏춬쾵쫽ꆣ컒쏇돆럇쳦듺쫐뎡훐쿻럑헟욷,뛸욷없A3퓲쫇쏅캪얮탔짨볆훆퓬뗄닺욷,틲듋,A3쫜춬튻럇쳦듺쫐뎡훐벺죏춬탂닺욷뗄쿻럑헟펰쿬뛸죏춬뗄욷없닮틬탔뫍M3럇뎣쟥컺ꆣ퓚헢훖쟩뿶쿂쫐뎡Mi(i=뒴탂닺욷뗄탐캪캪쒣럂죏춬탐캪,쒣럂죏춬솦뛈뗄듳킡폃1,2)뿉틔뮮럖캪솽룶뮥쿠뛀솢뗄ퟓ쫐뎡Mi3(얮탔쫐뎡)뫍닎쫽Q뇭쪾,돆캪쒣럂죏춬쾵쫽ꆣMii(쓐탔쫐뎡),욷없A3횻믡퓚쫐뎡Mi3훐삩즢,늻믡퓚쫐뚨틥9ꆡ쳦듺쫐뎡좰떼죏춬쾵쫽ꆣ컒쏇돆럇쳦듺쫐뎡
뗚9웚ꆡꆡꆡꆡꆡꆡꆡꆡꆡꆡꆡ췵엳,쯯:늿럖췪좫쳦듺뒴탂닺욷뗄삩즢쒣탍35훐뗄쿻럑헟쫜쳦듺쫐뎡훐벺닉폃탂닺욷뗄쿻럑헟펰쿬뛸=3\[P11+Q11N11(t)+22S11N22(t)+R111N13(t)ꆡ죏춬뒴탂닺욷뗄탐캪캪쳦듺쫐뎡좰떼죏춬탐캪,쳦듺쫐뎡ꆡ+R2311N23(t)\]M\[11-N11(t)](3)좰떼죏춬탐캪솦뛈뗄듳킡폃닎쫽R뇭쪾,돆캪쳦듺좰떼죏웤훐,n11(t)캪M11훐잱퓚죏춬헟t쪱뿌죏춬탂닺욷뗄뫪맛춬쾵쫽ꆣ룅싊몯쫽;N11(t)ꆢN22(t)럖뇰캪떽t쪱뿌M11ꆢM22훐뗄샛뚨틥10ꆡ럇쳦듺쫐뎡좰떼죏춬쾵쫽ꆣ컒쏇돆럇쳦듺쫐믽죏춬죋쫽;N13(t)ꆢN23(t)캪떽t쪱뿌M13ꆢM23훐뗄샛믽뎡훐쿻럑헟쫜쇭튻럇쳦듺쫐뎡훐벺죏춬탂닺욷뗄쿻럑헟닉폃죋쫽ꆣ펰쿬뛸죏춬탂닺욷뗄탐캪캪좰떼죏춬탐캪,좰떼죏춬탐캪춬샭,뿉틔뗃떽욷없A3퓚M22훐뗄죏춬삩즢쒣탍,뷸솦뛈뗄듳킡폃닎쫽S뇭쪾,돆캪좰떼죏춬쾵쫽ꆣ뛸뗃떽욷없A3퓚럇쳦듺쫐뎡MøM3훐뗄죏춬삩즢쒣탍ꆣ닎쫽rꆢsꆢPꆢQꆢRꆢS뗄횵폫Bass쒣탍풭탍훐닎쫽pꆢq뫍M뗄횵튻퇹뿉틔뷸탐맀볆4ꆡ퓚쏷컺쫐뎡훐늿럖췪좫쳦듺,죧맻좱랦폐킧뗄쫽뻝,튲뿉틔춨맽샺쪷짏샠쯆닺욷뗄뒴탂닺욷뗄삩즢쒣탍삩즢쟩뿶살믱뗃ꆣꆡ췪좫럖샫쫐뎡뚨틥11ꆡ췪좫럖샫쫐뎡ꆣ벴M11ꆢM13ꆢM22ꆢM23쿠뮥횮짨Mi3(i=1,2)뛔욷없A3뗄뒴탂쾵쫽뫍쒣럂쾵쫽럖뇰볤췪좫쎻폐죋볊붻쇷ꆣ캪pi3,qi3,퓋폃(1)쪽뗃욷없A3퓚Mi3훐삩즢쒣탍캪뚨틥12ꆡ틬샠럖샫쫐뎡ꆣ벴M3폫MøM3횮볤쎻폐죋ni3(t)=pi3[Mi3-Ni3(t)\]+qi3Ni3(t)[Mi3-Ni3(t)]볊붻쇷,떫M13폫M23폐죋볊붻쇷ꆣ=\[pi3+qi3Ni3(t)\]M\[i3-Ni3(t)](4)뚨틥13ꆡ풭욷없럖샫쫐뎡ꆣ벴솽룶풭욷없쫐뎡M1ꆢM2ꆡꆡ뛸A3퓚M3훐삩즢쒣탍캪횮볤퓚탂닺욷삩즢맽돌훐쎻폐죋볊붻쇷,떫M11폫M13ꆢM22n3(t)=n23(t)+n23(t)(5)폫M23횮볤듦퓚죋볊붻쇷ꆣꆡꆡ쳘뇰뗘,죴p=p13=p23,q=q13=q23,쇮N3(t)=뚨틥14ꆡ췪좫뮥뚯쫐뎡ꆣ벴M11ꆢM13ꆢM22ꆢM23쿠뮥횮N23(t)+N23(t),퓲A3뗄퓚헻룶ퟓ쫐뎡M3훐뗄삩즢쒣탍볤뻹듦퓚죋볊붻쇷ꆣ캪n3(t)=p[M3-N3(t)\]+qN3(t)[M3-N3(t)]3럇쳦듺쫐뎡닺욷죏춬삩즢벰웤쒣탍=\[p+qN3(t)\]M\[3-N3(t)](6)컒쏇죏캪늿럖췪좫쳦듺뒴탂닺욷뷸죫쫐뎡뫳,퓚ꆡ틬샠럖샫쫐뎡폫M23훐삩즢ퟅ닺욷,퓚M11폫M22훐퓲삩즢ퟅ죏춬ꆣ퓚탭뛠놣쇴뗄볙짨쳵볾,퓙짨M13훐쿻럑헟뛔M23훐쿻럑쟩뿶쿂,탂닺욷퓚럇쳦듺쫐뎡M11폫M22훐뗄죏춬삩즢뛔쳦헟뗄좰떼쒣럂쾵쫽캪13s23,M23훐쿻럑헟뛔M13훐쿻럑헟뗄좰듺쫐뎡M13폫M23훐닺욷삩즢펰쿬뫜듳ꆣ떼쒣럂쾵쫽23s13,퓲A3뗄퓚M13훐뗄삩즢쒣탍캪죏춬삩즢쫇튻훖탂맛쓮믲첬뛈뗄삩즢ꆣ죴컒쏇붫헢훖n13(t)=p13[M13-N13(t)\]+q13N13(t)[M13-N13(t)]탂맛쓮샭뷢캪맣틥뗄탂닺욷,퓲퓚췪좫쳦듺쳵볾쿂,죏춬ꆡ+23s13N23(t)[M13-N13(t)]삩즢쒣탍춬퇹럾듓Bass쒣탍(1)ꆣ떫퓚늿럖췪좫쳦듺쳵볾=\[p13+q13N33(t)+2s13N23(t)\]M\[13-N13(t)](7)쿂쟩뿶믡뢴퓓뗄뛠,M11폫M22쫐뎡훐쿻럑헟뛔탂닺욷뗄죏웤훐,N23(t)캪떽t쪱뿌M23훐뗄샛믽닉폃죋쫽23;s13N23(t)춬뿉틔살ퟔ뒴탂닺욷듙쿺믮뚯(췢늿펰쿬),튲뿉틔살ퟔꆤ[M13-N13(t)]랴펳M13훐뗄쿻럑헟퓚t쪱뿌평폚쫜M23M11폫M22쫐뎡훐벺죏춬헟뛔뒴탂닺욷폐샻뒫능(쓚늿펰훐벺닉폃헟펰쿬뛸쒣럂닉폃뒴탂닺욷뗄뫪맛룅싊ꆣ쿬),떱좻튲뿉틔살ퟔM13폫M23벺닉폃헟뛔뒴탂닺욷폐샻춬샭뿉뗃A3뗄퓚M23훐뗄삩즢쒣탍,솽쪽쿠볓벴뗃A3뒫능(쓚늿펰쿬)ꆣ뗄퓚M3훐뗄삩즢쒣탍ꆣ짨럇쳦듺쫐뎡Mii(i=1,2)뛔욷없A3뗄뒴탂죏춬쾵쫽쳘뇰뗘,죴p=p13=23p23,q=q13=q23=s13=13s23,퓲A3뫍쒣럂죏춬쾵쫽럖뇰캪Pii,Qii,럇쳦듺쫐뎡Mii뛔쇭튻럇쳦뗄퓚헻룶ퟓ쫐뎡M3훐뗄삩즢쒣탍틠폫(6)춬탎ꆣ듺쫐뎡Mjj뗄좰떼죏춬쾵쫽캪iiSjj,쳦듺쫐뎡Mi3훐뗄닉폃헟ꆡ풭욷없럖샫쫐뎡뛔럇쳦듺쫐뎡Mii뗄좰떼죏춬쾵쫽럖뇰캪Rj3(iii,j=1,2),놣쇴뗄볙짨쳵볾,퓙짨M11훐죏춬헟뛔M13훐쿻럑퓲욷없A3퓚M11훐죏춬삩즢쒣탍캪헟뗄좰떼닉폃쾵쫽캪11r13,퓲A3퓚M13훐뗄삩즢쒣탍캪ꆡn11(t)ꆡꆡꆡꆡꆡꆡꆡꆡꆡꆡꆡꆡꆡꆡꆡꆡꆡꆡꆡn13(t)ꆡꆡꆡꆡꆡꆡꆡꆡꆡꆡꆡꆡꆡꆡꆡꆡꆡꆡ=P11[M11-N11(t)\]+Q11N11(t)[M11-N11(t)]=p13[M13-N13(t)\]+q13N13(t)[M13-N13(t)]ꆡ+22S11N22(t)[M11-N11(t)]ꆡ+11r13N11(t)[M13-N13(t)]ꆡ+R1311N13(t)[M11-N11(t)]=\[p13+q13N3(t)+11r13N11(t)\]M\[13-N13(t)](8)ꆡ+R2311N23(t)[M11-N11(t)]웤훐,N11(t)캪떽t쪱뿌M11훐뗄샛믽죏춬죋쫽,뿉평(3)춨
36쾵ꆡ춳ꆡ릤ꆡ돌ꆡꆡꆡꆡꆡꆡꆡꆡꆡꆡꆡꆡꆡꆡꆡꆡꆡꆡ2005쓪맽폫(8)뗄솪솢랽돌ퟩ쟳뗃11;r13N11(t)[M13-N13(t)]랴펳튪뢴퓓뗃뛠;ꋚ컒쏇횻쳖싛쇋늿럖췪좫쳦듺뒴탂닺욷퓚쏷M13훐뗄쿻럑헟퓚t쪱뿌평폚쫜M11훐죏춬헟펰쿬뛸닉폃컺쫐뎡(뚨틥3)훐뗄삩즢,쫂쪵짏늿럖췪좫쳦듺뒴탂닺욷뒴탂닺욷뗄뫪맛룅싊ꆣ뗄삩즢뮹폐룼뢴퓓뗄쫐뎡쟩뿶,죧쿻럑헟횻폐쫔폃탂닺욷춬샭뿉뗃A3뗄퓚M23훐뗄삩즢쒣탍,솽쪽쿠볓벴뗃A3뫳닅쓜좷뚨룃닺욷쫇럱쫊뫏폚ퟔ벺뗈뗈,뛔폚헢킩컊쳢쫜뗄퓚M3훐뗄삩즢쒣탍ꆣ욪럹쯹쿞붫쇭컄쳖싛ꆣꆡ췪좫뮥뚯쫐뎡놣쇴닎뾼컄쿗:,뫍훐뗄볙짨쳵볾,퓙짨M11훐죏춬헟뛔M23훐쿻럑헟뗄좰떼닉폃쾵쫽캪11r23,M22훐죏춬헟뛔M\[1\ꆡ]훐쿻럑헟뗄좰떼닉폃쾵쫽캪22consumerdurables[J\].ManagementScience,1969,r13,퓲A3뗄퓚M13훐뗄삩즢쒣탍캪15:215ꆫ\[2\ꆡ]VijayM,MullerE,(t)=p13[M13-N13(t)\]+q13N13(t)[M13-N13(t)]ꆡ+23diffusionmodelsinmarketing:areviewands13N23(t)[M13-N13(t)]ꆡ+11directionsforresearch[J\].JournalofMarketing,r13N11(t)[M13-N13(t)]ꆡ1990,54:1ꆫ26.+22r13N22(t)[M13-N13(t)]\[3\ꆡ]쪢퇇,컢붡훐.탂닺욷쫐뎡삩즢Bass쒣탍ퟥ뗄퇐뺿=\[p+3qN3(t)+2s13N23(t)+11r13N11(t)[J\].풤닢,1999,2:71ꆫ74.ꆡ+22r13N22(t)\]M\[13-N13(t)](9)\[4\ꆡ]VijayM,웤훐,N22(t)캪떽t쪱뿌M22훐뗄샛믽죏춬죋쫽22;r13N22(t)awarenessforecastingmodelsofnewproductꆤ[M13-N13(t)]랴펳M13훐뗄쿻럑헟퓚t쪱뿌평폚쫜M22acceptance[J\].ManagementScience,1984,3:179훐죏춬헟펰쿬뛸닉폃뒴탂닺욷뗄뫪맛룅싊ꆣꆫ197.춬샭뿉뗃A3뗄퓚M23훐뗄삩즢쒣탍,솽쪽쿠볓벴뗃A3\[5\ꆡ]뫺놦쏱.벼쫵뒴탂삩즢샭싛폫쾵춳퇝뮯쒣탍[M\].놱뗄퓚M3훐뗄삩즢쒣탍ꆣ뺩:뿆톧돶냦짧,2002:17ꆫ34.\[6\ꆡ]뾵뾭.벼쫵뒴탂삩즢샭싛폫쒣탍[M\].쳬뷲:쳬뷲듳5ꆡ뷡폯톧돶냦짧,2004:132ꆫ168.죴퓚늿럖췪좫쳦듺뒴탂닺욷뗄삩즢퇐뺿훐횱뷓펦폃\[7\ꆡ]SwamiS,쒣탍(1),폃쫐뎡잱솿M3쳦듺M,헢쪱뗄쒣럂쾵쫽qLimitedSupplyandKnownExpirationDate[J\].펦룃샭뷢캪쫐뎡M11ꆢM13ꆢM22뫍M23쯹폐죋볊붻쇷(냼삨좰MarketingLetters,2003,14:1,33ꆫ46.떼닉폃ꆢ좰떼쒣럂)뗄릲춬랴펳ꆣ뛸컒쏇춨맽틽죫죏춬삩즢\[8\ꆡ]VandenBulteC,룅쓮벰웤쒣탍ꆢ틽죫늻춬ퟓ쫐뎡횮볤뛔뒴탂닺욷삩즢뗄쿠andincomeheterogeneityinnewproductdiffusion:뮥펰쿬뻍뿉틔룼뺫좷뗘붫늿럖췪좫쳦듺뒴탂닺욷뗄삩즢ameta2analytictest[J\].ManagementScience,좫쎲햹쪾돶살,헢뛔폚웳튵훆뚨탂닺욷뾪랢햽싔ꆢ쫐뎡뷸2004,4:530ꆫ544.죫햽싔ꆢ듙쿺ퟩ뫏닟싔뗈뚼폐ퟅ훘튪뗄틢틥ꆣ\[9\ꆡ]췵엳.쾰맟탔믲훒돏탔릺싲탐캪쿂뗄탂닺욷삩즢컒쏇힢틢떽:ꋙ컒쏇뗃돶뗄삩즢쒣탍쫇냼몬죏춬삩즢[J\].뿆퇐맜샭,2004,25(5):12ꆫ17.뫍닺욷삩즢뗄튻ퟩ삩즢쒣탍,웤뷢뇈Bass쒣탍풭탍뗄뷢TheDiffusionModelofPartialTotalSubstitutionCreativeProductsWANGP1,2eng,SUNH2ua(,Chengdu610000,China;,Guangzhou500091,China)Abstract:Basedonananalysisofconsumersꆯbehaviorinemployingthepartialtotalsubstitutionproduct,andbyintroducingandacceptingtheconceptslikediffusionandaseriesofnewparameters,:Marketing;DiffusionofNewProduct;PartialSubstitution
