쮮ꆡꆡ샻ꆡꆡ톧ꆡꆡ놨ꆡ2001쓪4퓂SHUILIꆡꆡXUEBAO뗚4웚컄헂뇠뫅:055929350(2001)0420001206럧쿕럖컶뗄믒즫-쯦믺럧쿕싊랽램퇐뺿뫺맺뮪1,쿄ꆡ뻼2(11뫾쓏쪦랶듳톧맺췁톧풺,뫾쓏뎤즳ꆡ410081;21커몺듳톧쮮풴폫뫓쇷릤돌쾵,뫾놱커몺ꆡ430072)햪ꆡ튪:놾컄믹폚룅싊싛뫍믒즫쾵춳샭싛랽램,뚨틥쇋믒즫룅싊ꆢ믒즫룅싊럖늼ꆢ믒즫룅싊쏜뛈ꆢ믒즫웚췻벰믒즫랽닮뗈믹놾룅쓮,헫뛔쾵춳뗄쯦믺늻좷뚨탔뫍믒즫늻좷뚨탔,붨솢쇋럧쿕럖컶뗄믒즫-쯦믺럧쿕싊랽램.퓚룃랽램훐,ퟷ헟붫럧쿕싊뗄늻좷뚨탔맩틲폚쾵춳뗄믒즫늻좷뚨탔,붫쾵춳탔쓜몯쫽뇤솿뗄럖늼뒦샭돉믒즫룅싊럖늼,늢폃믒즫-쯦믺럧쿕싊살솿뮯쾵춳쪧킧뗄럧쿕탔.ퟮ뫳,붫믒즫-쯦믺럧쿕싊뮻돉튻냣뗄쯦믺럧쿕싊,뷸뛸폃룄뷸튻뷗뛾뻘램뷸탐볆쯣.ퟷ캪쯣샽컄훐룸돶쇋룃랽램펦폃폚볎쇪붭닔쾪뛎폐믺컛좾럧쿕싊뗄맀쯣.맘볼듊:럧쿕럖컶;믒즫늻좷뚨탔;믒즫룅싊;믒즫룅싊럖늼;믒즫-쯦믺럧쿕싊훐춼럖샠뫅:X82014ꆡꆡꆡꆡꆡꆡ컄쿗뇪쪶싫:A퓚쮮컄쮮뮷뺳쾵춳럧쿕럖컶훐,쫗쿈탨튪뾼싇뗄쫇쾵춳뗄늻좷뚨탔컊쳢.쾵춳뗄늻좷뚨탔,볈풴폚쾵춳뗄쓚퓚늻좷뚨탔,튲닺짺폚쒣탍뗄늻좷뚨탔ꆢ닎쫽뗄늻좷뚨탔뫍믱좡떽뗄탅쾢뗄늻ퟣ뫍늻뺫좷탔\[1\].맘폚럧쿕폫늻좷뚨탔컊쳢뗄퇐뺿,폈웤쫇퓚럧쿕럖컶훐폐맘늻좷뚨탔뛔럧쿕펰쿬뗄솿뮯컊쳢뗄퇐뺿,틑쫜떽맺쓚췢톧헟뗄맘힢뫍훘쫓.Tang뗈죋\[2\]퓚뿉뾿탔폫럧쿕럖컶훐붫늻좷뚨탔럖캪평폚만폐뗄뇤틬탔듸살뗄늻좷뚨탔뫍폫맀볆컳닮폐맘뗄늻좷뚨탔.쏀맺쮮풴캯풱믡\[3\]퓚룸럧쿕폫늻좷뚨탔뚨틥쪱룸돶쇋솽헟횮볤뗄닮틬,죏캪럧쿕뗄쟩뿶뿉뚨틥캪잱퓚뗄쫤돶뗄쯦믺쳘헷,뛸늻좷뚨탔퓲쫇살풴폚쿠뛔좱랦뗄죏쪶\[4\].Jon퓚뒦샭뢴퓓쾵춳뗄럧쿕움볛훐붫늻좷뚨탔럖캪쯦믺늻좷뚨탔뫍훷맛늻좷뚨탔,늢죏캪잰헟뗄닺짺쫇풴폚쾵춳쓜틔탭뛠늻춬탎쪽쯹뇭쿖,틲뛸붫웤맩캪쾵춳뗄쳘탔,뛸뫳헟뗄닺짺퓲풴폚뛔쾵춳죏쪶뗄탅쾢뗄좱랦,쯹틔맩웤캪뛔쾵춳뷸탐럖컶뗄쳘탔].K\[5,6\ennethꆢH\[7\]attis뗈죋퓚폃폚죋좺믲짺컯뗄뮷뺳럧쿕럖컶훐,잿뗷쇋풴폚탅쾢좱랦뗄늻좷뚨탔뫍룶쳥횮볤만폐뗄뇤뮯탔.믆돧뢣뗈\[8\]퓚퓖몦럧쿕움볛훐뾼싇쇋럧쿕춳볆쒣탍뗄쒣뫽늻좷뚨탔.ퟷ헟퓲쳡돶붫풴폚뛔쾵춳죏횪뗄좱랦쯹닺짺뗄훷맛늻좷뚨탔맩뷡캪믒즫늻좷뚨탔\[9\].퓚럧쿕럖컶훐,뛔폚쾵춳놾짭만폐뗄쯦믺늻좷뚨탔뗄쒣쓢,튻냣폃춳볆톧짏뗄룅싊,튲벴럧쿕싊살뇭헷.듓훷맛늻좷뚨탔뗄샠뇰뫍쒿잰뛔웤뇭헷쯹폃뗄쫽톧랽램솽랽쏦ퟛ뫏살뾴,럧쿕싊뗄훷맛늻좷뚨탔뿉럖뇰폃룅싊랽램ꆢ쒣뫽벯샭싛랽램틔벰믒즫쾵춳샭싛랽램볓틔솿뮯.룅싊랽램쫇믹폚럧쿕싊뗄훷맛늻좷뚨탔ퟱ듓춳볆틢틥짏뗄쒳튻룅싊럖늼탎쪽뗄볙뚨.쒣뫽벯샭싛랽램쫇폃쒣뫽룅싊뇭듯럧쿕싊뗄뿉쓜탔룅쓮.뛸믒즫쾵춳랽램퓲쫇퓚쯦믺럧쿕싊랽램믹뒡짏,잿뗷뛔럧쿕싊뗄믒즫늻좷뚨탔뗄쏨쫶폫솿뮯.놾컄헫뛔쾵춳럧쿕럖컶훐듦퓚뗄럧쿕싊뗄믒즫늻좷뚨탔,퓚뚨틥믒즫룅싊ꆢ믒즫룅싊럖늼ꆢ믒즫룅싊쏜뛈ꆢ믒즫웚췻벰믒즫랽닮뗈믹뒡짏,쳡돶쇋믒즫-쯦믺럧쿕싊뗄룅쓮,붨솢쇋웤뇭듯탎쪽폫볆쯣랽램.쫕룥죕웚:2000203227ퟷ헟볲뷩:뫺맺뮪(1965-),쓐,뫾쓏탂쳯죋,늩쪿,뢱뷌쫚,훷튪듓쫂쮮컄쮮뮷뺳벰럧쿕퇐뺿.ꆪ1ꆪ' 1994-2007 China Academic Journal Electronic Publishing House. All rights reserved.
1ꆡ믒즫룅싊럖늼뗄믹놾룅쓮뚨틥1(믒즫룅싊\[10])돆펳짤PG:ꚷꇺP([0,1])캪믒즫룅싊,죴PG쫇(ꚸ,ꚷ)짏뗄뇕쟸볤벯횵닢뛈;쟒1ꇊPG(ꚸ).(ꚸ,ꚷ,PG)돆캪믒즫룅싊뿕볤.뚨틥2(믒즫룅싊럖늼)뚨틥퓚퇹놾뿕볤ꚸ짏,좡횵폚쪵쫽폲뗄몯쫽ꛎ,돆캪쫇퇹놾뿕볤ꚸ짏뗄쯦믺뇤솿,늢돆FG(x)=PG(ꛎꇜx),(-ꇞ<x<ꇞ)(1)쫇쯦믺뇤솿ꛎ뗄믒즫룅싊럖늼몯쫽,볲돆믒즫룅싊럖늼.PG캪쪵쫽폲짏쯦믺뇤솿ꛎ뗄믒즫룅싊맀볆.뚨틥3(믒즫룅싊쏜뛈)죴ꛎ쫇쯦믺뇤솿,FG(x)쫇쯼뗄믒즫룅싊럖늼,죧맻듦퓚몯쫽fG(x),쪹뛔폚죎틢뗄x,폐FG(x)=ꇒxf-ꇞG(y)dy(2)퓲돆fG(x)캪FG(x)뗄믒즫룅싊쏜뛈몯쫽,볲돆믒즫룅싊쏜뛈.캪룼횱맛뗘뇭쿖믒즫룅싊럖늼뗄ꆰ믒즫ꆱ쳘탔,쪽(2)뿉뇭쪾죧쿂쪽뗄탎쪽FG(x)=[FG3(x),F3G(x)]=ꇒxF-ꇞG3(y)dy,ꇒx3f-ꇞG(y)dy(3)ꆡꆡ뚨틥4(믒즫웚췻)(ꚸ,ꚷ,PG)훐,죴ꛎ쫇튻룶쯦믺뇤솿,웤믒즫룅싊럖늼몯쫽캪FG(x),떱ꇒꇞxdF-ꇞG(x)<ꇞ(4)쪱,돆ꛎ뗄쫽톧웚췻(볲돆믒즫웚췻)듦퓚,쟒EG(ꛎ)=EG3(ꛎ),E3G(ꛎ)=ꇒꇞxdF3G(x),ꇒꇞxdF-ꇞG3(x)(5)-ꇞꆡꆡ뚨틥5(믒즫랽닮)(ꚸ,ꚷ,PG)훐,죴ꛎ쫇튻룶쯦믺뇤솿,웤믒즫룅싊럖늼몯쫽캪FG(x),돆ꛎ뗄믒즫랽닮듦퓚,쟒DG(ꛎ)=[DG3(ꛎ),D3G(ꛎ)]=ꇒꇞ(ꛎ-E2G(ꛎ))dFG(x)-ꇞ=ꇒꇞ2(ꛎ-E3G(ꛎ2))dFG3(x),ꇒꇞ(ꛎ-EG3(ꛎ))dF3G(x)(6)-ꇞ-ꇞ2ꆡ믒즫-쯦믺럧쿕싊뗄룅쓮벰뇭듯탎쪽쾵춳뗄럧쿕쫇횸쾵춳늻쓜횴탐웤풭뚨릦쓜뗄룅싊믲횸쾵춳췢살뢺뫉듳폚쾵춳놾짭ퟨ뾹믲돐퓘쓜솦뗄룅싊.뻝듋,뿉럖틔쿂3훖쟩뿶뛔믒즫-쯦믺럧쿕싊뷸탐뚨틥뫍뇭듯.(1)퓚쾵춳럧쿕싊평튻룶쾵춳ퟨ뾹폫튻룶쾵춳췢살뢺뫉릹돉쟩뿶쿂,떱뾼싇쾵춳ퟨ뾹믲돐퓘쓜솦캪튻룶ퟱ듓쒳튻뺭뗤럖늼뗄쯦믺뇤솿(폃X뇭쪾),뛸쾵춳췢살뢺뫉캪튻룶ퟱ듓쒳튻믒즫룅싊럖늼뗄쯦믺뇤솿(폃YG뇭쪾)쪱,퓲쾵춳쪧킧뗄럧쿕싊뚨틥캪RG=PG(X<YG)(7)쪽훐,PG캪믒즫룅싊,틲뛸RG돆캪믒즫-쯦믺럧쿕싊.죴쓜쟳뗃X뗄룅싊쏜뛈몯쫽fX(x)뫍YG뗄믒즫룅싊럖늼몯쫽3[FY(y),F3GY(y)]믲믒즫룅싊쏜뛈몯쫽[fGY(y),fY(y)]쪱,쪽(7)뿉룄킴캪3G3GRG=ꇒꇞ(1-FY(x))f0GX(x)dx,ꇒꇞ3(1-FY(x))fX(x)dx(8)30Gꆡꆡ쪧킧럧쿕싊RG뗄훊뗄솿뛈뿉폃춼1훐쟺쿟fX(x)럖뇰폫3fY(y)ꆢfGY(y)뗄훘뗾늿럖뇭쪾.3G(2)뾼달쒳튻쾵춳뗄럧쿕싊,죴쾵춳ퟨ뾹뫍쾵춳췢살뢺뫉캪럖뇰ퟱ듓쒳튻믒즫룅싊럖늼FG(x)폫ꆪ2ꆪ' 1994-2007 China Academic Journal Electronic Publishing House. All rights reserved.
FG(y)뗄쯦믺뇤솿XGꆢYG,퓲쾵춳쪧킧뗄럧쿕싊뿉뇭쪾캪RG=PG(XG<YG)(9)죴쓜쟳뗃XGꆢYG뗄믒즫룅싊럖늼[FX(x),F3X(x)]ꆢ[FY(y),F3Y(y)]믲믒즫룅싊쏜뛈몯쫽G3GG3G33[fX(x),fGX(x)]ꆢ[fY(y),fGGY(y)]쪱,퓲죧춼2쯹쪾,쟺쿟3fX(x)ꆢf33GGX(x)럖뇰폫fY(y)ꆢ3GG33fY(y)뗄훘뗾늿럖뿉뇭쪾쪧킧럧쿕싊RG뗄훊뗄솿뛈.G춼1ꆡ쾵춳뢺뫉뗄믒즫룅싊쏜뛈폫쾵춳ퟨ뾹뗄룅싊쏜뛈쪾틢춼2ꆡ쾵춳뢺뫉폫쾵춳ퟨ뾹뗄믒즫룅싊쏜뛈몯쫽쪾틢ꆡꆡ떱뾼싇RG캪쏨쫶쪧킧럧쿕싊뗄ퟮ킡폫ퟮ듳횵쟸볤쪱,쪽(9)뿉룼뻟쳥뗘뇭듯캪:RG=[RG3,R3G]=[PG3,P3G]=minꇒꇞ(1-FY(x))f(x)dx,ꇒꇞ(1-F3Y(x))fX(x)dx,0GX3G30GG3ꇒꇞ3(1-FY(x))f(x)dx,GX3Gꇒꇞ3(1-F3Y(x))fX(x)dx,00GG(10)maxꇒꇞ(1-FY(x))fX(x)dx,0G3G3ꇒꇞ(1-F3Y(x))f(x)dx,GX0G3ꇒꇞ3(1-FY(x))fX(x)dx,0G3Gꇒꇞ(1-F33Y(x))f0GX(x)dxG=ꇒꇞ3(1-FY(x))fX(x)dx,ꇒꇞ(1-F3GY(x))f0G3GX(x)dx0G3ꆡꆡ(3)튻냣튻룶쾵춳짦벰탭뛠틲쯘믲ힴ첬뇤솿,폃쿲솿XG=(XG1,XG2,ꆭ,XGn)뇭쪾.틲듋,쾵춳탔쓜몯쫽쫇헢킩틲쯘뗄몯쫽g(XG),쾵춳쪧킧뗄럧쿕싊뚨틥캪g(XG)<0뗄룅싊.평폚쾵춳뗄쎿튻ힴ첬뇤솿XGiퟱ듓뿉폃믒즫룅싊럖늼몯쫽[FXG3(x),F3X(x)]믲믒즫룅싊쏜뛈몯iGi쫽3[fX,fG3(x)X(x)]뇭헷뗄쒳튻믒즫룅싊럖늼,틲듋뿉샠쯆뗘뗃돶죧쿂룅쓮:iGi쾵춳뗄쇙뷧탔쓜튪쟳뿉뚨틥캪g(XG)=0,쯼쫇쾵춳뗄ꆰ벫쿞ힴ첬ꆱ.틲듋,뻍폐[g(XG)>0]=ꆰ낲좫ힴ첬ꆱ벰[g(XG)<0]=ꆰ쪧킧ힴ첬ꆱꆡꆡ룹뻝벸뫎톧짏,벫쿞ힴ첬랽돌g(XG)=0,쫇튻룶n캬뗄뇭쏦,돆횮캪ꆰ쪧킧쏦ꆱ.쿔좻,평폚XG뗄믒즫쳘탔,듦퓚n2룶쪧킧쏦.죴쪧킧쏦떽풭뗣뗄ퟮ킡뻠샫폃쿲솿d=(d1,d2,ꆭ,dn2)뇭쪾,퓲평폚쪧킧쏦뗄캻훃뿉폃쪧킧쏦떽풭뗣뗄ퟮ킡뻠샫살뇭쪾,뛸쿠뛔폚풭뗣뗄쪧킧쏦뗄캻훃폖뻶뚨쾵춳뗄럧쿕탔,틲듋,쯹폐ퟮ킡뻠샫뗄ퟮ킡횵min(d)폫ퟮ듳횵max(d)뿉뷼쯆뗘폃폚럧쿕탔뗄솿뛈,벴[min(d),max(d)].틲듋,죧뇤솿XG1,XG2,ꆭ,XGn뗄솪뫏룅싊쏜뛈몯쫽캪fXG,ꆭ,X(XG1,ꆭ,XGn),쪧킧ힴ첬뗄룅싊캪1Gnꆪ3ꆪ' 1994-2007 China Academic Journal Electronic Publishing House. All rights reserved.
RG=ꇒꆭꆭ,ꆭ,X(XGG1,ꆭ,XGn)dXg(XnG)<0ꇒfXGG1,ꆭ,dXGn1볲킴돉RG=ꇒꆭfX(XG)dX(11)g(XGGG)<03ꆡ믒즫-쯦믺럧쿕싊뗄볆쯣랽램볆쯣럧쿕싊뗄랽램폐훘쿖웚뻠램ꆢ횱뷓믽럖램ꆢ쏉쳘뾨싥램ꆢ뻹횵튻뷗뛾뻘램(MVFOSM)ꆢ룄뷸튻뷗뛾뻘램(AFOSM)틔벰뛾뷗램.떫뿉릩쪵볊쪹폃뗄튻냣쫇쏉쳘뾨싥램뫍AFOSM램.웤훐폃쏉쳘뾨싥램뷸탐럧쿕싊볆쯣평폚퓚맀볆짏뷏뢴퓓뫍뫄쪱,쯹틔튻냣퓚폐웤쯻뷏볲떥뗄랽램쪱,뚼뺡솿뇜쏢쪹폃듋램.AFOSM램늻횱뷓췆쟳탔쓜몯쫽뗄럖늼몯쫽,뛸쿈평룷틲쯘뗄튻ꆢ뛾뷗뻘췆쟳탔쓜몯쫽뗄튻ꆢ뛾뷗뻘,좻뫳볤뷓맀쯣럧쿕싊.평폚믒즫-쯦믺럧쿕싊뿉틔럖뷢캪n2룶쯦믺럧쿕싊뗄탎쪽살뇭듯,틲듋,뿉틔붫믒즫-쯦믺럧쿕싊뮻돉튻냣뗄쯦믺럧쿕싊,뷸뛸폃룄뷸튻뷗뛾뻘램뷸탐볆쯣.풭퓲짏,RG펦듓쿲솿R=(R1,R2,ꆭ,Rn2)훐춨맽좡ퟮ킡횵ꆢퟮ듳횵뗃떽,벴RG=[R3,R3]=[min(R),max(R)](12)ꆡꆡ퓚쪵볊퓋폃훐,평폚춨맽폐맘탅쾢벰럖컶,죝틗뗃횪룷틲쯘XGi뇤뮯뛔RG듳킡뗄펰쿬.틲듋,뻝듋쓜릻릹퓬룷틲쯘튻ꆢ뛾뷗뻘좡횵뗄솽ퟩퟩ뫏,늢듓웤훐튻ퟩ(볇캪XG3)훐뿉쟳뗃ퟮ킡럧쿕싊횵(볇캪R3),듓쇭튻ퟩ(XG3)훐뿉쟳뗃ퟮ듳럧쿕싊횵(볇캪R3),벴R3=P{g(XG3)<0}(13)R3=P{g(XG3)<0}(14)ꆡꆡ짏쫶R3폫R3퓲뿉폃룄뷸튻뷗뛾뻘램럖뇰쟳뗃.4ꆡ쯣ꆡ샽뛔폚뫓뛎쮮뮷뺳쾵춳컛좾뢺뫉쫇럱뎬돶뮷뺳돐쫜죝솿뗄컊쳢,평폚컞싛쫇뮷뺳죝솿,뮹쫇쮮뮷뺳뢺뫉뫄폃솿뚼튪쫜쮮쳥뮷뺳쳘헷뫍컛좾컯쳘헷뗄펰쿬.퓚튻냣쟩뿶쿂,캪쪹뿘훆뛏쏦쮮훊듯뇪뛸쟳뗃뗄웰쪼뛏쏦탨뿘훆뗄컛좾컯얨뛈,쫇룹뻝쳘헷닎쫽뗄룷욽뻹횵쟳뗃뗄.떫쫂쪵짏,헢킩쳘헷닎쫽폖틲쫜떽탭뛠늻좷뚨탔틲쯘뗄쿔훸펰쿬뛸뻟폐튻뚨랶캧뗄쯦믺뇤뚯탔.틲듋,떱쳘헷횵욫샫욽뻹횵틔뫳,퓲폐뿉쓜뛔쯹뿘훆뛏쏦뗄쮮훊닺짺웆뮵,벴뫓뛎쮮뮷뺳릦쓜듦퓚웆뮵럧쿕.뇭1캪볎쇪붭닔쾪뛎쮮뮷뺳쳘헷횵[11],쳘헷횵듦퓚ퟅ튻뚨랶캧뗄쯦믺뇤뚯,늨뚯횵돊헽첬럖늼탍.죴뷸튻늽뾼싇쮮뮷뺳닎쫽평폚좱랦돤ퟣ뗄맛닢탅쾢뛸듦퓚믒즫늻좷뚨탔,퓲폃Shafer랽램[12]뿉붫헽첬럖늼뗄뻹횵뒦샭돉죧뇭2쯹쪾뗄믒쟸볤탎쪽.뇭1ꆡ볎쇪붭닔쾪뛎쮮뮷뺳닎쫽쳘헷횵뮷뺳닎쫽놥뫍퇵Π(mgΠL)K1Πd-1K2Πd-1L0Π(mgΠL)TΠd좡횵랶캧11125ꆫ1117901075ꆫ01100180ꆫ112070ꆫ1101195ꆫ2145욽뻹횵1115701084111068921292뻹랽닮01198010500113013112501189ꆪ4ꆪ' 1994-2007 China Academic Journal Electronic Publishing House. All rights reserved.
뇭2ꆡ볎쇪붭닔쾪뛎쮮뮷뺳닎쫽뗄짏ꆢ쿂웚췻횵뮷뺳닎쫽CSGΠ(mgΠL)K1GΠ(1Πd)K2GΠ(1Πd)L0GΠ(mgΠL)TGΠdꛌ3111625010981114292167821345ꛌ3111515010701107085132221239폃놾컄쳡돶뗄믒즫-쯦믺럧쿕싊랽램뛔볎쇪붭닔쾪뛎쮮뮷뺳폐믺컛좾뷸탐럧쿕럖컶,쫗쿈뿉틔붨솢룃뫓뛎쮮뮷뺳훊솿ힴ첬몯쫽캪(틔폐믺컛좾ퟛ뫏횸뇪죜뷢퇵ퟷ뾼달):g(XG)=g(CG,K1G,K2G,L0G,TG)K1GL0G15)=-K((C1GTGSG-C)t-Ke2G쪽훐:CG캪쮮뮷뺳죝솿(DO,mgΠL);CSG캪쮮쳥놥뫍죜뷢퇵얨뛈(mgΠL);Ct캪뿘훆뛏쏦뿘훆쒿뇪(mgΠL)(놾컄틔죜뷢퇵얨뛈4mgΠLퟷ캪뿘훆뇪ힼ);K1G캪뫄퇵쾵쫽(1Πd);K2G캪뢴퇵쾵쫽(1Πd);L0G캪돵쪼뛏쏦BOD5얨뛈횵(mgΠL);TG캪쮮쇷듓돵쪼뛏쏦떽뿘훆뛏쏦쯹탨쪱볤(d).떱g(XG)>0쪱,쮮뮷뺳훊솿듯떽튪쟳.죴g(XG)<0,퓲쮮훊뎬맽뿘훆쒿뇪,뎬뇪믒즫-쯦믺럧쿕싊캪RG=[R3,R3]=P{g(XG)<0}(16)ꆡꆡ듓쪽(15)틗횪,쮮뮷뺳닎쫽K1GꆢL0G폫쮮훊뎬뇪믒즫-쯦믺럧쿕싊RG돊헽쿠맘,뛸CSGꆢK2G벰TG퓲폫RG돊뢺쿠맘.틲듋,폃AFOSM램뿉틔듓(C33SG,K1G3,K32G,L0G3,TG)릹돉뗄XG3훐쟳뗃럧쿕싊뗄ퟮ킡횵R33캪011194,듓(CSG3,K31G,K2G3,L0G,TG3)릹돉뗄X3G훐뿉쟳뗃럧쿕싊뗄ퟮ듳횵R3캪013745.ퟮ뫳,뗃떽볎쇪붭닔쾪뛎뿘훆뛏쏦죜뷢퇵얨뛈붵떽4mgΠL틔쿂쪱뗄믒즫-쯦믺럧쿕싊RG캪[011194,013745],웤뷏뫃뗘쳥쿖뫍뛈솿쇋럧쿕싊뗄늻좷뚨탔.5ꆡ뷡ꆡ폯놾컄헫뛔쮮컄쮮뮷뺳쾵춳듦퓚뗄쯦믺늻좷뚨탔뫍믒즫늻좷뚨탔,잿뗷퓚뷸탐쾵춳럧쿕럖컶쪱,펦떱ퟛ뫏뾼싇헢솽샠늻좷뚨탔뛔럧쿕싊뗄펰쿬.캪듋,퓚틽죫믒즫룅싊ꆢ믒즫룅싊럖늼ꆢ믒즫룅싊쏜뛈ꆢ믒즫웚췻벰믒즫랽닮뗈믹뒡짏,쳡돶쇋믒즫-쯦믺럧쿕싊룅쓮,붨솢쇋쿠펦뗄뇭듯탎쪽폫볆쯣랽램,룸돶쇋쯣샽.놾컄쳡돶뗄럧쿕럖컶랽램붫럧쿕싊뗄늻좷뚨탔맩뷡캪믒즫탔,붫쾵춳탔쓜몯쫽뗄뇤솿뒦샭돉믒즫룅싊럖늼,ퟮ뫳폃믒즫-쯦믺럧쿕싊살솿뮯쾵춳쪧킧뗄럧쿕탔,헢뿉틔뷏뫃뗘쳥쿖뫍뛈솿럧쿕싊뗄늻좷뚨탔.춬쪱,믒즫-쯦믺럧쿕싊뿉틔뮻돉튻냣럧쿕싊,뛸폃훮죧AFOSM뗈랽램뷸탐볆쯣,튲뇜쏢쇋폃쏉쳘뾨싥랽램쒣쓢쯹듸살뗄뢴퓓폫뫄쪱.놾퇐뺿뷶쫇럧쿕럖컶늻좷뚨탔솿뮯랽램뗄탂첽쯷.평폚쾵춳럧쿕럖컶짦벰떽듳솿뗄닎쫽폫늻좷뚨탔,쿔좻뛔쯼쏇훰튻뷸탐솿뮯쫇쿠떱뢴퓓뗄컊쳢.틲듋,죧뫎붫놾컄쳡돶뗄랽램뷸튻늽췪짆뫍췘햹짐탨ퟶ뷸튻늽퇐뺿.닎ꆡ뾼ꆡ컄ꆡ쿗:\[1]ꆡAngAH2S,.(Vol.ꋲ,translatedbySunFang2chuietal.)\[M\].Beijing:Metallurgicalindustrypress,-460(InChinese).\[2]ꆡTangWH,YucemenMS,\[J\].CanadianGeotechnicalJ.,1976,13:201-215.\[3]ꆡ(levelC)\[J\]..,1979a,44(102):30194-30258.ꆪ5ꆪ' 1994-2007 China Academic Journal Electronic Publishing House. All rights reserved.
\[4]ꆡ\[J\].RiskAnalysis,1994,14(4):483-511.\[5]ꆡKennethBogenT,\[J\].RiskAnalysis,1987,7(4):427-436.\[6]ꆡ\[J\].1995,5(3):411-419.\[7]ꆡDaleHattis,\[J\].RiskAnalysis,1994,14(5):713-730.\[8]ꆡHuangChongfu,\[J\].JournalofNaturalDisasters,1994,3(1):1-8(InChinese).\[9]ꆡ:\[C\].Wuhan:WuhanUniversityofHydraulicandElectricEngineering,1998(InChinese).\[10\]ꆡHuangWeijun,\[A\].In:\[M\].Chengdu:ChengduScience&TechnologyUniversitypress,1994(InChinese).\[11\]ꆡ\[J\].ChinaEnvironmentalScience,1990,10(3):218-223(InChinese).\[12\]ꆡBillCaselton,\[A\].In:,u2ncertaintyanddecision2making\[C\].Instituteforriskresearch,,XIA2Jun(11HunanNormalUniversity,Changshaꆡ410081,China;21WuhanUniversity,Wuhanꆡ430072,China)Abstract:Theconceptsofgreyprobability,greyprobabilitydistribution,greyprobabilitydensity,,theuncertaintyofsystemriskisattributedtogreyuncertaintyofsystem,:riskanalysis;greyuncertainty;greyprobability;greyprobabilitydistribution;grey2sto2chasticriskꆪ6ꆪ' 1994-2007 China Academic Journal Electronic Publishing House. All rights reserved.
