߶࠹ᇗඍؓ႔ჅᇉਈڿႵൌᇉིݔગ iiࠎႿ႔Ⴥ໗ࡲྟބႋ࠹ᇉਈ֥ॉҳ ќ čᇏݓದն࿐അ࿐ჽ Ď }ᅋေ~ؓթᄝ߶࠹ҵհ֥ҍༀБۡࣉྛ۷ᆞྟണૼ֥߶࠹ᇗඍđ൞ڎఏ֞ਔ൙ުҀࣷቔႨđିڎؓഈ൧܄ඳྐ༏ᇉਈఏ֞ൌᇉྟ֥ڿࣉིݔđࡼᆰࢤ႕ཙ൧ӆҕაᆀ֥ሧྐྏބሧЧ൧ӆ֥ᄎྛིੱbЧ໓๙ݖؓݓഈ൧܄ඳᄝ߶࠹ᇗඍభު႔Ⴥᇉਈэ߄֥ൌᆣဒđٳ༅ބࡎਔݓ߶࠹ᇗඍᇅ؇֥ൌ࠽ིݔbࢲݔཁൕđ߶࠹ᇗඍؿളުđᇗඍ܄ඳ֥႔Ⴥэ֤۷ࡆ҂໗ࡲđႋ࠹ᇉਈ္ૼཁࢆ֮bᆃඪૼđ߶࠹ᇗඍѩໃൌᇉڿ႔Ⴥᇉਈđఃࣞൕބ՜ቔႨ٤ӈႵཋđታրՖᇅ؇ᆳྛބᇍളਆٚ૫ჍၛປbЧູ࣮߶࠹ᇗඍᇅ؇ބᆣಊ൧ӆࡓ֥ܵࣉ၂҄ປิ܂ਔંҕॉބࣜဒᆣऌb }ܱՍ~߶࠹ᇗඍĠ႔Ⴥ໗ࡲྟĠႋ࠹ᇉਈĠᇅ؇ིݔ }Abstract~Whether accounting restatements play a remedial role or make a substantial improvement on information quality of listed companies, will directly affect market participants’ investment confidence and capital markets’ operating efficiency. This paper testes the earning quality of China's listed companies before and after the accounting restatement, and then evaluates the practical effect of the restatement of our accounting system. The results show that, after accounting restatements, earnings conservatism and accrual quality of restating companies become significantly reduced. That is to say, accounting restatements do not improve earnings quality, and its alerts or supervisory role is also very limited. Hence, system implementation and governance of ecology should be improved. This study provides a theoretical and empirical evidence on further improving the accounting restatement system and securities market regulation. }Key Words~accounting restatements; earnings conservatism; accrual quality; practical effects of systems ၂a໙ี֥ิԛ ᆇൌ܄ᄍ֥ҍༀБۡྐ༏đ൞ЌᅰሧЧ൧ӆࡲूؿᅚ֥ᇗေ่ࡱᆭ၂bೂޅಒЌҍༀБۡྐ༏֥ᇉਈđ၂ᆰ൞߶࠹࿐ඌࢸaൌༀࢸၛࠣཌྷܱࡓܵ֒अۚ؇ܱᇿ֥ᇗေၰีbթᄝ߶࠹ҵհ֥ҍༀБۡđᇗႵ߶࠹ྐ༏ᇉਈđಸၞ༂֝০ၭཌྷܱᆀ֥थҦđࢆ֮൧ӆᄎྛაሧჷᇂི֥ੱb୍࣍টđԛႿડቀವሧླaղ֞ࡓܵေaଽ҆ದଔ౼০֩ჰၹđযႨ߶࠹ҵհ֝ᇁ֥рσࡱರၭᄹࡆbࣜဒ࣮іૼđ߶࠹ᇗඍ֥ಒႄᇁਔ၂༢ਙ҂ਅުݔđбೂ֝ᇁ܄ඳܢࡎ༯יaሧЧӮЧഈശaྐվӮЧᄹࡆaബ࠹ٮႨэۚaܢתුහ֩b߶࠹ᇗඍᆞ൞ؓᆃোҍༀБۡྐ༏ࣉྛᇗྍіඍ֥၂ᇕ൙ު۷ᆞྛູbࡹ৫߶࠹ᇗඍᇅ؇đࠣൈ۷ᆞ߶࠹ҵհđႵᇹႿࢆ֮߶࠹ҵհؓҍༀБۡႨᆀथҦ֥ڵ૫႕ཙđᇗෑ൧ӆҕაᆀ֥ྐྏაྐđՖطႵ০Ⴟᆣಊ൧ӆ֥ӻ࿃ࡲूؿᅚb ა߶࠹ᇗඍႵܱ֥مੰمܿčູྛ໓ٚьđၛ༯ࡥӫğ߶࠹ᇗඍᇅ؇Ďቋᄪॖሔි֞ૅݓ1933୍ϯ֥҃uᆣಊمvđఃᇏؓ҂ປᆜa҂ఞ֒aၞФ༂ࢳ֥ҍༀྐ༏ิԛਔ࣯ᆞေbֻ၂Ցૼಒႄೆ߶࠹ᇗඍཌྷܱۀ֥൞ૅݓ߶࠹ჰᄵჴ߶čAPBĎᄝ1971୍7ᄅؿֻ֥҃20ݼၩu߶࠹э۷včAPB Opinion : Accounting ChangesĎbᆭު୍֥ࡗđૅݓ֥ཌྷܱ߶࠹ѓሙѩൌᇉྟэ߄b1998୍9ᄅ28ರđൈૅݓᆣಊࢌၞჴ߶čSECĎ
ᇶ༜֥έೣ·ົหčArthur LevittĎᄝ୧ჿն࿐ؿіਔᇷ֥ဆࢃuඔሳႳ༤včNumbers GameĎđሹࢲਔᄯӮ߶࠹ҵհ֥ᇕӈႨ࠲৲č༡նᄫaԷᄯྟѩܓaѦۄއൔሙСࣁa൬ೆಒಪaᇗնྟĎb2001୍ָđνಖaൗ๙aീু֩ҍༀԘ໔Фཌྷࢣषđᆃུ܄ඳູਔ۷ᆞႮႿႅҟᅏༀaྴᄹ০֩ٚ૫֥߶࠹ҵհđ࿃࿆҃ᇗྍщᇅᆭభ֥ҍༀБۡbაᆃུҍༀԘ໔၂ఏڜԛඣ૫֥đߎႵૅਟࠢ֩ሧၿྛႏрބᇭ؟ᆣಊٳ༅ഽܣၩ༂֝ሧᆀ֩Ԙ໔bႿՎđؓૅݓሧЧ൧ӆࡓุܵᇅބྐ༏ᇅ؇֥э۪Фิഈၰ൙ರӱđ2002୍7ᄅ30ರđൈૅݓሹ֥ౄᇍ·҃čGeorge W. BushĎదඇਔu2002୍ϫථĒύक़ථ০مσvčSarbanes-Oxley Act of 2002đၛ༯ࡥӫuSOXمσvĎđھمσᄝ߶࠹ഽྛြࡓܵaຓ҆ബ࠹৫ྟa܄ᇙ܄ඳܵҪᄳၛࠣٝᆸٳ༅ഽ০ၭԊ֩ٚ૫ቔԛਔྸ؟ྍ֥۬ܿקbھمσ൱ಃഡ৫ૅݓ܄ᇙ܄ඳ߶࠹ࡓܵჴ߶čPCAOBĎđေ܄ᇙ܄ඳۚࠩܵದჴčᇶေᆷ൮༜ᆳྛܲބ൮༜ҍༀܲĎؓҍༀБ֥ۡᆇൌྟࣉྛ࿆൛đѩٳิ܂҂ൌҍༀБ֥ۡᇗӱ؇ഡקਔ10୍ᇀ20୍҂֥֩ྗ൙ᄳԩـbၹՎđᇙ؟܄ඳٴٴۊᄝ࿆ۚܵ൛భབྷ༥ҰބᇗྍщБၛభ୍؇֥ҍༀБۡđՖطႄؿਔ߶࠹ᇗඍಣӖbᆞ൞ሱՎᆭުđྸ؟ࡓܵࠏܒࠇཌྷܱቆᆮषਔؓ߶࠹ᇗඍ൙ࡱ֥טđೂૅݓݓࡅബ࠹ඇčGAOĎaҍༀࣜླྀ߶čFEIĎaૅݓҍᆟ҆čThe Department of the Treasury, .Ďđ༵ުؿ҃ݖཌྷܱטҰ࣮Бۡbა߶࠹ᇗඍཌྷܱ֥࿐ඌ࣮໓ᅣ္Ֆ2002୍षᇧᄹb2005୍5ᄅđFASBႻؿ҃ਔခႨᇀࣂֻ֥154ݼҍༀ߶࠹ሙᄵ܄ۡu߶࠹э۷ބҵհ۷ᆞğูսAPBֻ20ݼၩބFASBֻ3ݼ܄ۡvčAccounting Changes and Error CorrectionsĎđᄝ࿃Ⴈᆭభऎุ֥߶࠹ԩٚمࠎԤഈđૼಒٳਔ߶࠹ҵհ۷ᆞა߶࠹э۷đࠧ߶࠹ᇗඍህᆷ߶࠹ҵհ۷ᆞđط҂ᄜЇও߶࠹ҵհ۷ᆞᆭຓ֥ః߶࠹э۷bቔູuSOXمσv֥ิԛᆀᆭ၂đൈૅݓҕၰჽၿྛჴ߶ᇶ༜֥Ќઅ·ϫථčPaul SarbanesĎᄝ2002୍1ᄅ23ರૅݓҕၰჽ֥ંᇏᆷԛđ“႔Ⴥَ֥ᇗඍᆰࠌҍༀ༢֥ྏᄣđၹູᆃུ໙ี1ႄఏਔؓ܄षҍༀБіॖौྟ֥ᇉၐđط߶ߊሧᆀؓᆣಊ൧ӆᄎႏ֥ྐྏb” ૅݓҍᆟ҆҆Ӊޗ০·Ќغ೦čHenry PaulsonĎᄝ2008୍֥၂ٺലૼᇏӫđྸ؟ᇗေದൖᄝ2007୍ૅݓҍᆟ҆ईϷ֥ሧЧ൧ӆࣩᆚ৯ڂ߶ഈіൕਔؓݖಀ୍ࡗ߶࠹ᇗඍԛགྷࠤखᄹӉ֥քႬb ᄝݓđࠫެაૅݓ֥߶࠹Ԙ໔ൈđၛၿܼ༱ູսі֥߶࠹р൙ࡱФ௷ܻb2003୍3ᄅ29ರđTCL๙ؓ܄ඳ2000୍؇ҍༀБіྐ༏ࣉྛᇗඍ֥ᆜڿ܄֥ۡđ۷൞ႄؿਔযႨᇗն߶࠹ҵհ۷ᆞ֥նษંđ߶࠹ᇗඍ໙ีФᇀڄ१শࡕbऌՙ࠹đݓ2005-2010୍ࡗؿ҃߶࠹ҵհ۷ᆞ܄֥ۡഈ൧܄ඳඔਈđ୍न102ࡅđᅝಆ҆ഈ൧܄ඳ֥б২नູ%đնჿཌྷ֒Ⴟૄ13ࡅ܄ඳᇏႵ1ࡅؿള߶࠹ҵհ۷ᆞbᆃ၂э߄ࢠ2001-20042୍Ⴕ෮ࢆ֮čჿૄ7ࡅ܄ඳᇏႵ1ࡅᇗඍĎđߎ൞ૼཁۚႿఃݓࡅčೂૅݓնჿૄ18ࡅ܄ඳႵ1ࡅؿളᇗඍĎbطđՖ߶࠹ᇗඍؓႵّܱ႘ҍༀሑঃބࣜႏӮݔ֥ᇶေᆷѓ֥႕ཙটुđݓ֥߶࠹ᇗඍྟᇉߎ൞ࢠູᇗ֥b࣍7Ӯ֥܄ඳ๙ݖ߶࠹ҵհ۷ᆞטࡨਔሧӁሹحaթ൬ၭࠇ࣪০đטᆜږ؇ࢠնčབྷ1ĎbՎຓđ๙ݖᄝᇏݓБᆼሧჷಆ໓ඔऌ९֥෬ؿགྷđა߶࠹ҵհ۷ᆞཌྷܱ֥۲նಃຯБᆼഈ֥ྍ໔Б֡ࣇ2010୍ࣼႵ࣍ 1 ҕMargetis(2004)P83, “Frequent restatements of earnings go directly to the heart of our financial system, because by raising questions about the reliability of published financial statements they threaten to undermine investors’ confidence in the way our securities markets operate.” ---Paul Sarbanes (Comments on the floor of the . Senate, 1/23/02). 2 2001-2004୍֥ᇏݓഈ൧܄ඳ߶࠹ᇗඍཌྷܱඔऌҕᅶ༩ބ࿏ඡ (2010). "ҍༀᇗඍa႔Ⴥᇉਈა൧ӆಪᆩ֥༢ྟொҵ." ᇏݓ߶࠹ં 8(4): 399-414. ႮႿ༩ބ࿏ඡč2010Ď֥؇ਈ१ࣥҐႨ֥൞Ֆ୍Бᇏᇯ၂Ұᅳ֥ٚൔđطЧ࣮ႮႿაః࣮ଢ֥҂đ࿊౼֥ᆺ൞ؿ҃߶࠹ᇗඍ܄֥ۡ܄ඳđၹطః࣮ဢЧٓຶбЧ࣮ܼđनοЧ࣮१ࣥটෘđ2001-2004୍֥ᇗඍб২ႋھбః࣮ᇏ෮ਙൕ֥б২֮b
40่đᄝޓնӱ؇ഈّ႘ਔ߶࠹ᇗඍაྴࡌӧඍaᇗնິ֥ܿ֩ૡ్ཌྷܱྟbᆣࡓ߶ؿ֥҃u2010୍ഈ൧܄ඳᆳྛఒြ߶࠹ሙᄵࡓܵБۡv֥ህีٳ༅ᇏđ္หљิ֞߶࠹ҵհ໙ีbႮՎॖđՖྟᇉഈुđ߶࠹ᇗඍ໙ีᄝݓႭູᇗb ሹሧӁ թ൬ၭ ࣪০ 1 ߶࠹ᇗඍؓఒြҍༀሑঃބࣜႏӮݔ֥႕ཙ ູਔႋؓᆭభၹؓ߶࠹ҵհྐ༏҂ܔԛط֝ᇁ႔Ⴥܵॢࡗࡆն֥໙ีđᆣࡓ߶ᄝఒြ߶࠹ሙᄵu߶࠹ᆟҦa߶࠹ܙ࠹э۷ބ߶࠹ҵհ۷ᆞv֥ࠎԤഈđႿ2003୍12ᄅ1ರؿ҃ਔֻ19ݼ܄षؿྛᆣಊ֥܄ඳྐ༏щБܿᄵuҍༀྐ༏֥۷ᆞࠣཌྷܱvđ൮Ցૼಒေ܄ඳႋ֒ၛᇗն൙ཛਢൈ܄֥ۡٚൔࠣൈ۷ᆞު֥ཌྷܱҍༀБۡྐ༏bᆌؓ225ࡅᄝ2002୍୍Бᇏሔිטᆜၛభ୍؇ᇗն߶࠹ҵհ֥໙ีđᆣࡓ߶Ⴟ2004୍1ᄅ6ರᄜՑؿ໓đູuܱႿࣉ၂҄ิۚഈ൧܄ඳҍༀྐ༏ᇉਈ֥๙ᆩvđఃᇏֻ3่ህؓ߶࠹ҵհ۷ᆞ֥ཌྷܱԩބᄳ֩ࣉྛܿٓđѩᄜՑ఼טა߶࠹ҵհཌྷܱ֥൙ၒđၛ௹๙ݖ߶࠹ᇗඍ֥ࠣൈఏ֞ཟሧᆀൕࣞڄག֥ቔႨb2006୍2ᄅ15ರҍᆟ҆ᇗྍϯ҃ਔuఒြ߶࠹ሙᄵvčAccounting Standards for Business Enterprises, ၛ༯ࡥӫCAS2006Ďđఃᇏᄝuఒြ߶࠹ሙᄵֻ28ݼii߶࠹ᆟҦa߶࠹ܙ࠹э۷ބҵհ۷ᆞvč2007୍1ᄅ1ರീྛĎᇏđ౼ཨਔ“ᇗն߶࠹ҵհ”֥קၬđิԛ“భ௹ҵհ”֥ۀđေ෮Ⴕᇗေభ௹ҵհनႋҐႨሔිᇗඍمࣉྛԩbՎຓđᄝᆣࡓ߶ؿ֥҃uഈ൧܄ඳྐ༏ܵϷمvaധᎪᆣಊࢌၞ෮ؿ҃u֥ܱႿቓݺഈ൧܄ඳ୍؇Бۡ۽ቔ֥๙ᆩvauᇏཬఒြϰྐ༏ြༀСອֻ4ݼğ୍؇Бۡཌྷܱ൙ཛvᇏ္Ⴕა߶࠹ᇗඍཌྷܱ֥ܿקބေbॖđݓ֥߶࠹ᇗඍᇅ؇ၘࣜࡹ৫ఏটđఃࡹ৫Ԛᇓᆞ൞ູਔିܔࠣൈ۷ᆞ߶࠹ҵհđఏ֞ಞ߶࠹ᇗඍ܄ඳّസሱദѩࣉྛڿࣉ֥ࣞൕބ՜ቔႨbೂݔᆃ၂ᇅ؇νஆఏ҂֞ႋႵቔႨđمسᇅഈ൧܄ඳযႨ߶࠹ҵհ֥ྛູđᄵ߶ႄট۷؟֥܄ඳིٟđѩྙӮذྟ࿖ߌđՖط֝ᇁᆜ۱ᆣಊ൧ӆ֥ބི֮bၹطđؓ߶࠹ᇗඍᇅ؇֥ൌ࠽ིݔ֥ဒބٳ༅đႵሢᇗေ֥ൌၩၬb Ⴟ߶࠹ҵհջট֥ᇭ؟҂ਅ႕ཙđ߶࠹ᇗඍ໙ีႋ൳֞ਔંࢸaൌༀࢸބࡓܵࠏܒ֥ۚ؇ᇗ൪bෙಖݓຓؓ߶࠹ᇗඍ໙ีၘࣜႵնਈ֥࣮đݓଽ္Ⴕਔ၂ུᆃٚ૫֥࣮໓ངđ൞đགྷႵ໓ངഉໃႵؓ߶࠹ᇗඍᇅ؇ൌ࠽ིݔ֥ധೆ࣮bቔູ܄ඳࣜႏӮݔ֥ቋᇔቋᆰุܴ֥གྷđ܄ඳҍༀБۡᇏ֥߶࠹႔Ⴥ൞܄ඳ۲ো০ၭ ཌྷܱᆀቋູܱᇿ֥ྐ༏ሧჷbં൞ࡓܵࠏܒ֥ᆟҦٚᆌa۲ཛఔჿר৫ބᆳྛđߎ൞০ၭཌྷܱᆀ֥ҍༀٳ༅đၧࠇ൞ᄝܿٓބൌᆣ߶࠹࣮ᇏđ߶࠹႔Ⴥ൞ФႨቋູܼ֥ٗᆷѓbၹՎđЧ໓൫Ֆ߶࠹ᇗඍభު܄ඳ႔Ⴥᇉਈэ߄֥൪࢘đಀဒބٳ༅߶࠹ᇗඍᇅ؇֥ൌ࠽ིݔđҀၘႵ࣮֥ഈඍ҂ቀđၛ௹ູࡎ߶࠹ᇗඍᇅ؇֥ൌ࠽ིݔิ܂ࣉ၂֥҄ંᆦӻބࣜဒᆣऌđູࣉ၂҄ປᆣಊ൧ӆࡓܵิ܂Ⴕၭҕॉbᆃ္ᆞ൞Ч࣮֥ંࡎᆴބᆟҦၩၬ෮ᄝb ۷ᆞб২čֆ໊ Ď
ؽaંٳ༅აࡌഡิԛ ቔູҍༀБۡิ܂֥ܱྐ༏đ߶࠹႔Ⴥ၂ᆰ൞ޙਈ܄ඳ႔০ି৯ބࡎᆴᄹᆴ֥ނྏᆷѓđФܼٗႨႿ܄ඳ۲ཛఔჿ֥దרބᆳྛᇏb߶࠹႔Ⴥྐ༏ିڎؿߨᆃᇕܙᆴބఔჿቔႨđ౼थႿ߶࠹႔Ⴥ֥۲ཛᇉਈหᆘb୶Нغࣜ࠶࿐ࢂࠆ֤ᆀaႇݓ֒սᇷࣜ࠶࿐ჿݩ·༐क़ථčJohn HicksĎᄝఃᇷuࡎᆴაሧЧvčValue and Capital, 1946Ď၂ᇏđิԛਔ๙ݖؓбਆ۱ൈׄഈ֥۱ุࡎᆴਈ֥э߄টࣉྛקၬ֥ࣜ࠶႔Ⴥۀbఃު߶࠹࿐ᆀ္สႨᆃ၂ٓൔđ๙ݖؓбਆ۱ൈׄഈ֥܄ඳࡎᆴэ߄টקၬ܄ඳ֥߶࠹႔ჅbՖંഈඪđࣜ࠶႔Ⴥቋିุགྷఒြ֥ࣜ࠶ൌᇉđၹطᄀିุགྷࣜ࠶႔Ⴥ֥߶࠹႔ჅđᄀၩሢۚᇉਈbၹՎྸ؟߶࠹࿐ᆀčೂSchipper&Vincent, 2003ĠHodge, Kennedy&Maines, 2004Ď๙ݖ߶࠹႔Ⴥაࣜ࠶႔Ⴥ֥၂ᇁྟӱ؇টࡎ႔Ⴥᇉਈđѩ֤ၛࢠູܼ֥ٗಪॖbಖطđࣜ࠶൬ၭمሙಒ؎đၹطᆃ၂႔ჅᇉਈѓሙᆺᄝંഈӮ৫đѩ҂ି֤ၛᆇᆞᄎႨބ࠹ਈbၹՎؓ႔Ⴥᆷѓᇉਈ֥ൌᆣҩ؇đರࡶФࡓܵٚa࿐ඌࢸaൌༀᆀิԛaಪॖѩᄝ߶࠹ൌᇏቔູ႔Ⴥᇉਈ֥іᆘb གྷսఒြᇏ෮ႵಃაࣜႏಃٳđഺჅ॥ᇅಃაഺჅ෬౼ಃ҂ିປಆđଽ҆ದႚႵቋབྷൌሙಒֻ֥၂൭ྐ༏đႵࠏބି৯০Ⴈྐ༏Ⴊ൝ট࿙ሿbၘႵ࣮іૼđթᄝଽ҆ದ๙ݖ߶࠹ᇗඍభުܢࡎэઙછܢௐطࠆ֤ದ൬ၭ֥౦ྙbLi&Zhang(2006)ؿགྷଽ҆ದ߶০Ⴈྐ༏Ⴊ൝ᄝᇗඍᆭభԛܢௐၛࡨഒܢࡎ༯יാbߎႵ࣮іૼđӻႵܢௐ௹ಃ֥CEO۷Ⴕࠏ๙ݖհБ႕ཙܢࡎՖطᄹࡆ۱ದҍڶđೂBurns&Kedia(2006)ൌᆣіૼđCEO௹ಃቆކؓܢࡎ֥ૹۋ؇აᇗඍॖିྟཁᇷᆞཌྷܱbႮᇗඍྛູࠏ֥ః္࣮ॖၛुԛđᇗඍ܄ඳႭః൞ܱؓ߶࠹ᆷѓࣉྛᇗඍ֥܄ඳಒൌԮ־ԛᆇൌ֥ߊཨ༏đೂDegeorge, Patel&Zeckhauser(1999)֥࣮іૼđູЌӻ܄ඳ൧ᆴࠣղ֞ٳ༅ഽყ௹đഈ൧܄ඳႵቀܔࠏҐႨ۲ᇕࠗࣉ൭؍টҠሺ႔ჅđՖطಸၞ֝ᇁ۷َູ֥ᇗඍbႮՎॖ؎đᇗඍ܄ඳЧദ֥ಒॖିၘթᄝࣜႏࠇವሧ໙ีđࠇູਔડቀଖུࠏٸਔ႔Ⴥbೂݔ൞ᆃဢđᇗඍ܄ඳᄝᇗඍభ֥႔Ⴥᇉਈሱಖႋھ҂ೂ٤ᇗඍ܄ඳbၘႵ࣮іૼđ߶࠹ᇗඍສສ൞ႮႿࠗࣉ֥߶࠹ྛູ෮ᇁđၹطႵႮҩğູх૧ᄜՑᇗඍބ൳֞ԩـđ܄ඳᄝᇗඍުॖିؓ߶࠹ಒಪა࠹ਈэ֤۷ࡆࣈരčೂHuang, Shangguan&Vasudevan, 2009Ďbೂݔ߶࠹ᇗඍᆇ֥ॖၛؓ႔Ⴥᇉਈఏ֞ൌᇉྟڿࣉቔႨđପહᄝ߶࠹ᇗඍުႋб߶࠹ᇗඍభ֥႔Ⴥᇉਈ۷ۚb ႞ᇂၐđۚᇉਈ֥႔Ⴥсಖ൞ॖӻ࿃֥b൞ّݖটđॖӻ࿃ྟ֥႔Ⴥໃс൞ۚᇉਈ֥đᆃ൞ၹູॖӻ࿃֥႔Ⴥໃс൞ᆇൌ֥bط႔Ⴥ۲ᇉਈหᆘᆷѓࡗႵൈቔႨ൞ཌྷّ֥đೂ႔Ⴥᄀ໗ࡲđ႔Ⴥ֥ॖэྟॖିᄀնđ߁ྟࣼᄀ֮đӻ࿃ྟᄀҵbᄝ܄ඳଽ҆ದ֥ۄყ༯đ႔Ⴥ֥٤ӻ࿃ྟ҆ٳ္ॖିၹದູҠሺطӯགྷԛӻ࿃ྟ֥іའđᄝᆃᇕ౦ঃ༯ቋ൳႕ཙ֥൞႔Ⴥ໗ࡲྟđᄝՎ౦ঃ༯႔Ⴥӻ࿃ྟބ႔Ⴥ໗ࡲྟ֥іགྷສສ൞ཌྷّ֥bՖ߶࠹ൌགྷሧᆀЌ֥קࡎۿିބᇍۿି֥࢘؇ॉ੮đູх૧ཟ࿊ᄴބ֣֡ڄགđ໗ࡲჰᄵ൞႔Ⴥᇉਈॉҳᇏс҂ॖഒ֥ᇗေѓሙb၂ٚ૫đᆞೂWatts(2003)ބBall&Shivakumar(2005)ิ֥֞đᄝࢆ֮ۚܵሧ൙భყ௹࣪གྷᆴູڵ֥ཛଢࠇ࿃ሧ൙ުགྷࣁੀਈູڵ֥ཛଢ֥ۀੱٚ૫đ໗ࡲჰᄵఏ֞ਔࠒַֹࠞࡨܵᆀুܴᇶၬބࠏ߶ᇶၬྛູ֥ቔႨbਸ਼၂ٚ૫đ߶࠹ྐ༏ᇏ֥໗ࡲၹॖၛູվॻקࡎิ܂۷ሙಒ֥൙భ؎ྐ༏đି۷ࢮֹԨؿࠎႿၘჿקݺ֥߶࠹бੱ֥ᅏༀླྀၰ֥ᇗྍקࡎđՖطх૧ڄག֥ࣉ၂҄ࡆնၛᇁэӮາࠏbߐओ߅ඪđ܄ඳᅏಃದԛႿؓሱദ০ၭ֥ЌđཌྷؓႿݺཨ༏đᅏಃದؓߊཨ༏۷ູૹۋđၹطླေ۷ູࠣൈ֥ߊཨ༏bၹՎࢲކ߶࠹ᇗඍᆃ၂࣮ؓའ֥หׄđ႔Ⴥ໗ࡲྟб႔Ⴥӻ࿃ྟ۷ିսі႔ჅᇉਈbࠎႿၛഈٳ༅đิԛЧ໓ֻ֥၂۱ࡌഡb ࡌഡ1ğ߶࠹ᇗඍభުđᇗඍ܄ඳ֥႔Ⴥ໗ࡲྟ߶թᄝཁᇷҵၳb ഈඍؓ߶࠹႔Ⴥᇉਈ֥ฐษđᄝޓնӱ؇ഈ൞ࠎႿ߶࠹႔Ⴥ൞ᆇൌ႔Ⴥ֥భิ༯bಖطđ႔Ⴥ֥ܵթᄝྟᄪၘФൌᆣ߶࠹࣮෮ᆣൌbႮႿႋ࠹ཛଢཌྷбགྷࣁੀਈ۷ಸၞФದູҠሺࠇט॥đၹՎྸ؟࿐ᆀิԛק႔Ⴥᇉਈ֥֮ۚႋھࠎႿགྷࣁੀਈܴbࠧ߶࠹႔Ⴥ
ᄀࢤ࣍གྷࣁੀਈđࠇඪ߶࠹႔Ⴥაགྷࣁੀਈᄀđᄵіૼ߶࠹႔Ⴥᇉਈᄀۚb߶࠹႔Ⴥ҂ିሇ߄ູགྷࣁੀೆđᄵඪૼ߶࠹႔ჅඔሳႵॖି൞ФҠሺ֥đ҂൞ೂൌّ႘֥đՖᆃ၂࢘؇টඪđᆃ၂ѓሙაॖौྟႵܱ৳bਸ਼ຓđႮႿᆃ၂؎ѓሙ൞๙ݖ߶࠹႔Ⴥؓໃটགྷࣁੀਈ֥ყҩି৯টࡎ႔ჅᇉਈđၹطЧᇉഈ္ॖෘቔཌྷܱྟ֥ٓԐbᄝൌᆣ߶࠹࣮ᇏđޙਈ߶࠹႔Ⴥაགྷࣁੀਈܱ༢đສສ൞๙ݖႋ࠹ᇉਈଆটဒ֥đھଆ๙ݖ࠹ෘԛႋ࠹ཛଢᇉਈᆴট؎ႋ࠹ཛଢაགྷࣁੀਈொ֥ӱ؇bᆃ၂ொӱ؇ᄀնđඪૼ߶࠹႔Ⴥᇉਈᄀ֮bၹՎđิԛЧ໓ֻ֥ؽ۱ࡌഡb ࡌഡ2ğ߶࠹ᇗඍభުđᇗඍ܄ඳ֥ႋ࠹ᇉਈ߶թᄝཁᇷҵၳb ႮႿЧ໓֥࣮ଢѓ൞ဒ߶࠹ᇗඍᇅ؇֥ൌ࠽ིݔđܣᄝࡌഡᇏѩໃყҩ႔Ⴥᇉਈэ߄֥ٚཟb a࣮ഡ࠹ č၂ĎဢЧটჷࠣԩ ߶࠹ᇗඍဢЧ࿊ᄴ ႮႿݓѩીႵཞૅݓ၂ဢႵሢႮܲٚ၂ؿ֥҃߶࠹ᇗඍඔऌ९đࡆᆭݓ߶࠹ᇗඍཌྷܱሙᄵэథࠣൌᇏྙӮ֥“߶࠹ҵհ۷ᆞ”a“భ௹ҵհ”a“ሔිטᆜ”a“ሔිᇗඍ”a“ҍༀБۡҀנ”֩ඌეđა߶࠹ݓ࠽ე༯ႄೆ֥“߶࠹ᇗඍ”a“ҍༀᇗඍ”a“߶࠹Біᇗඍ”a“ҍༀБۡᇗඍ”a“ҍༀհБ”֩ඌეᄝྙൔࠇଽಸഈթᄝࢌࠢطႄᇁࠁཪbၹՎᄝଢభđݓ߶࠹ᇗඍ࣮֥ൌᆣဢЧ࿊ᄴթᄝਆো౦ঃğ၂൞ᆷህᆌؓק௹ҍༀБۡؿ҃Ҁנ܄֥ۡ܄ඳđၛ୍ؓБؿ҃Ҁԉ܄ۡa۷ᆞ܄ۡaҀԉࠣ۷ᆞ܄֥ۡ܄ඳູᇶčၛ༯ࡥӫູğҍༀБۡҀנဢЧĎđೂ້ᆽ,ӈౝބၪߩč2009ĎĠؽ൞ᆷؿ҃߶࠹ҵհ۷ᆞ܄ۡࠇᄝ߶࠹Біڸᇿᇏؓ߶࠹ҵհࣉྛ۷ᆞඪૼ֥܄ඳčၛ༯ࡥӫູğ߶࠹ҵհ۷ᆞဢЧĎđೂࡻႇѡ,աېބລေ໓č2010Ďb๙ݖؓ2003-2009୍֥ҍༀБۡҀנဢЧ֥ᆜٳ༅ؿགྷđՖඔਈഈुđҀԉ܄ۡᅝбӑݖٳᆭ၂č%Ďđ۷ᆞ܄ۡᅝбࢤ࣍၂϶č%ĎđఃᄵູҀԉࠣ۷ᆞ܄ۡbՖଽಸഈुđҀԉোଽಸᇶေЇওğܱؓ৳ᅏಃᅏༀສটaքЌ൙ཛ֥֩ࣉ၂҄ඪૼĠؓٳֹaٳӁᇶႏြༀ൬ೆࠣ০౦ঃඪૼ֥ૼ༥іĠൌ࠽॥ᇅದaҕܢܢתaۚܵᆯࠣྈԏ౦ঃ֥֩བྷ༥ඪૼĠБۡ௹ଽವሧथҦࠣࣉᅚ֥ᄜඪૼĠ܄ඳࢤրטaҐ٠ࠣໃটؿᅚᅚຬ֩ྐ༏bॖᆃུҀԉোଽಸࠫެა߶࠹ҵհܱb۷ᆞোଽಸđᇶေॖٳູোğ၂ো൞ႮႿг༂ൿޭࠇଷ༢֩֝ᇁ֥հ༂đೂհྛa၌aᇗگᅔ์aඔਈֆ໊հ༂֩Ġֻؽো൞ႮႿؓ߶࠹ሙᄵࠇم֥ܿࢳொҵ֝ᇁ֥հ༂đೂؓܓઙರಒקѓሙࢳႵ༂֝ᇁཌྷܱඔऌ۷ᆞaྍࣸ߶࠹ሙᄵླྀט֝ᇁ֥ҵၳaႮႿؓᆷѓ࠹ෘࠎሙѓሙ҂၂֝ᇁ֥ཌྷؓб২࠹ෘհ༂Ġֻো൞ა߶࠹ሙᄵܿקླေࣉྛᇗඍ֥߶࠹ҵհ۷ᆞႵܱđᅝбߎ҂ቀҍༀБۡҀנ܄ۡሹඔ֥ඹٳᆭ၂đᆺႵ҂ቀ၂϶֥܄ۡടࠣ০ᆷѓđສສട֥ࠣࣁحࠇטᆜږ؇٤ӈᆭཬđၛᇀႿॖປಆஆԢఒြၛՎ൭؍ࣉྛ႔Ⴥ֥ܵॖିྟbაᆭཌྷؓđ߶࠹ҵհ۷ᆞဢЧᄵᇗׄᆌؓິّ߶࠹ሙᄵࠣཌྷܱѓሙ֥߶࠹ҵհჍၛ۷ᆞđбҍༀБۡҀנဢЧ۷ିّ႘ԛ߶࠹ᇗඍ֥ЧᇉbၹՎđᄝЧ࣮֥ဢЧ࿊ᄴᇏđᇶေ࿊౼֥൞߶࠹ҵհ۷ᆞဢЧbਸ਼ຓđູაݓ࠽ᇶੀ໓ངЌӻ၂ᇁࠣࣉ၂҄ᄹ3఼࣮ࢲݔ֥ॖбྟđᄝЧ࣮ᇏໃҐႨ“߶࠹ҵհ۷ᆞ”طႨਔ“߶࠹ᇗඍ”ᆃ၂ඌეb ߶࠹ᇗඍဢЧটჷ Ֆ߶࠹ᇗඍᇅ؇֥ဆࣉॖᆩđᆣࡓ߶ᄝ2003୍ָϯ֥҃ܿᄵֻ19ݼᇏđҌ൮Ցิԛູࠣൈ۷ᆞᆭު֥ҍༀБۡྐ༏đ܄ඳႋ֒ҐႨᇗն൙ཛਢൈ܄֥ۡٚൔbၹطՖ 3 ႮႿ“ҍༀᇗඍ”ა“ҍༀБۡҀנ”ᄝეྙൔऎႵཌྷරྟၞ֝ᇁ༂ࢳđၹՎࠧьݓଽ໓ངᇏ“ҍༀᇗඍ”б“߶࠹ᇗඍ”Ⴈ۷ູ௴ђđЧ࣮ಯಖ࿊ᄴਔ“߶࠹ᇗඍ”ᆃ၂іղٚൔb
2004୍ఏđૌҌॖၛᄝᇏݓᆣࡓ߶۲նᆷקྐ༏ຩᅟᇏҰ࿘֞߶࠹ᇗඍཌྷܱ֥ਢൈ܄ۡđط҂ᄜླေ๙ݖ୍Б֥၂၂ҰᄇҌॖ֤֞߶࠹ᇗඍ܄ඳ֥ཌྷܱྐ༏bაGAO(2007)֥ܴׄ၂ᇁđЧ࣮ಪູෙಖՖ୍Бᇏᇯ၂Ұᅳॖࠆ֤۷؟֥ဢЧਈđႮႿ܄षॖҰ֥߶࠹ᇗඍ܄ۡđ۷ॖିФ൧ӆतҳѩჍၛّႋđၹطđЧ࣮֥ԚဢЧ࿊ᄴ֥ᆺ൞ؿ҃߶࠹ᇗඍ܄֥ۡ܄ඳbऎุ࿊ᄴٚم൞ğᄝຣ֤ᇏݓࣁವඔऌ९čWindሧࣁವᇔ؊ĎaऍӖሧຩčĎaഈݚᆣಊࢌၞ෮ܲٚຩᅟčĎٳљ๙ݖൻೆ“߶࠹ҵհ”a“ҵհ۷ᆞ”a“ሔිטᆜ”a“ሔිᇗඍ”a“భ௹ҵհ”a“ҍༀྐ༏۷ᆞ”ܱ֩Սෆ෬a༯ᄛѩᆜ֤֞bؓਆᇕඔऌটჷ֤֥֞߶࠹ᇗඍ܄ۡဢЧࣉྛࢌҭٳ༅ބނؓҀ၌b ߶࠹ᇗඍဢЧೱ࿊ ؓഈඍԚဢЧ֥ೱ࿊ݖӱೂ༯ğč1ĎؓႿႵུ܄ඳᄝཌྷ࣍ರ௹ؿ҃ਔൌᇉଽಸཌྷ֥ᇗඍ܄֥ۡ౦ঃčೂၛ൙߶aۚܵҪa৫൙ࠇബ࠹ഽၬٳљؿ҃ଽಸཌྷĎđᆺಒಪູ၂۱ဢЧbč2ĎႿ٤୍Бᇗඍ֥႕ཙ৯ჹཬႿ୍БᇗඍđัԢࣇᆌؓᇏ௹ҍༀБۡčೂ϶୍Бa࠱БĎࠇఃБۡčೂܢಃٳᇂڿ۪ཌྷܱ໓ࡱĎ֩ࣉྛ߶࠹ᇗඍ֥܄ඳဢЧbč3ĎႮႿᄝݓഈ൧܄ඳ߶࠹ҵհ۷ᆞ֥ཌྷܱ߶࠹ሙᄵა߶࠹ᆟҦэ۷a߶࠹ܙ࠹э۷ᄝ၂ሙᄵᇏđၹط܄ඳᄝؿ҃߶࠹ᇗඍ܄ۡൈđ߶࠹ᆟҦэ۷ࠇ߶࠹ܙ࠹э۷ສສ္Фܺၛ߶࠹ҵհᆭჍၛؿ҃đܣัԢਔ܄ۡଽಸࣇᆌؓ߶࠹ᆟҦࠇ߶࠹ܙ࠹э۷֩აЧ࣮ࢸק֥߶࠹ᇗඍקၬ҂ژ֥ᇗඍ܄ඳဢЧbč4Ďູ࣐ਈᄹ఼࣮ဢЧ֥ᇉྟđᆺЌਔAܢഈ൧܄ඳđัԢਔࣁವোྛြ֥ഈ൧܄ඳbč5ĎႮႿႵུ܄ඳؓ၂ҍༀБіᄝ၂୍ଽᇗඍਔ҂ᆸ၂Ցđطު࿃ᇗඍ֥ྐ༏ݣਈ߶ႵૼཁࡨđၹՎᆺЌਔؓҍༀБіࣉྛֻ၂Ցᇗඍ֥ဢЧbč6ĎႮႿ2004୍֥ဢЧඔਈࠞഒđ҂ડቀ่࣮ࡱđܣჍၛัԢđࠧൌᆣဢЧ࿊౼֥ఏൈࡗ൞2005୍đࢩᆸൈࡗູ2010č୍ࠧЧ࣮ࣉྛൈ෮ି൬֥ࠢቋྍඔऌൈࡗĎbč7ĎัԢਔဒଆ෮ླඔऌ҂ປᆜ֥܄ඳဢЧb2ਙൕਔᄝ2004-2010୍ࡗധ൧Aܢa൧Aܢ߶࠹ᇗඍ܄ඳᅝ୍֒ധ൧Aܢa൧AܢሹඔϤٳб୍֥؇ᅼཌbቋᇔᄝ2005Ē2010୍ᆃ၂࣮௹ࡗᇏđᆌ୍ؓБࣉྛ߶࠹ᇗඍ֥ဢЧູ463۱b ധ""ކ࠹ 2 ധAܢ߶࠹ᇗඍ܄ඳᅝб୍؇ٳ҃ Ч࣮ᇏട֥ࠣ߶࠹ඔऌބ൧ӆඔऌđनটሱݓνࣜ࠶ࣁವ࣮ඔऌ९bູਔཨԢၳӈᆴ࣮ؓࢲݔ֥ۄಠ႕ཙđؓ৵࿃эਈႨਔ1%ඣഈ֥෪ແԩbႮႿ҂ଆ෮ླေ֥ᇌުࠇӑభඔऌ҂၂čࠧ҂ဒᇏඔऌॖႨྟթᄝҵၳĎđၹطᄝൌᆣဒൈ߶۴ऌऎุ౦ঃჍၛൡ֥࣮֒௹ࡗބဢЧਈࡨđܣ҂ဒᇏ֥ൌ࠽ဢЧਈ߶ၹՎؿളཌྷႋэ߄bਸ਼ຓđႮႿ࣮ᇗඍభު֥႔Ⴥᇉਈэ߄֥۲ଆླေᇀഒᇗඍభު۲2୍֥ҍༀඔऌđܣ࣮ဢЧ௹ࡗႵུ҂൞ປᆜ֥2005-2010୍đط൞۴ऌ౦ঃཌྷႋႵ෮ࡨഒb۲ଆ֥ဢЧਈބ࣮௹ࡗनᄝࢲݔᇏ۳ԛđၹطᄝՎ҂ᄜሕඍb
ؓٚم࿊ᄴࠣჰၹ ၘႵ࣮ສສᆺႨ၂ᇕٚمࣉྛؓဢЧ࿊ᄴđ၂ؓ၂ࣚಒٚمބ၂ؓ؟ଆؓٚمႵሢܥႵ֥ಌཊbၹطЧ໓ᄝ࿊ᄴؓဢЧൈđൈႨਔᆃਆᇕٚمbࠧ࿊౼ਔࣚಒؓބଆؓਆᇕٚمࣉྛဢЧؓဒđ๙ݖਆᆀ֤ԛ֥ဒࢲݔཌྷႆᆣđၛ௹ᄹࡆࢲં֥ඪڛ৯ބ௴ൡྟbႨAbadie, Drukker, Herr&Imbens(2004)aAbadie&Imbens(2006)֥नԩིႋ֥ؓٚمট֤֞ࣚಒؓဢЧbႨھٚمॖၛ֤֞ࠎႿनԩིႋčaverage treatment effectsĎ֥აᇶဢЧቋࢤ֥࣍ؓܙ࠹ਈđ࠻ॖᆌؓᆜุဢЧđႻॖᆌؓԩቆሰဢЧࠇ॥ᇅቆሰဢЧbᆃ၂ٚم࠻ᆦӻ၂၂đႻᆦӻ၂؟a؟၂đߎॖ۳ԛૄ۱֥ؓሙಒएbႭః൞ᄍྸܴҩᆴФ؟ՑႨđࠧᆦӻᇗگԎဢđିܔႵིࡨഒဢЧொҵđՖطᄹ఼ؓԩ֥ॖौྟbൈھٚمᄍྸഡᇂ؟۱࿊ᄴѓሙđิ܂ਔྩᆞၳٚҵaࣚಒؓႋaொҵྩᆞaᇂྐࡗaۀੱಃᇗ֩࿊ཛđॖၛቋնཋ؇ֹࡨഒؓൈԛགྷ֥࠹໙ีbଆؓဢЧᄵ൞ᆷაᇗඍ܄ඳဢЧဢೱ࿊่ࡱ༯֥෮Ⴕ٤ᇗඍ܄ඳဢЧb čؽĎଆഡקაэਈקၬ ႔Ⴥ໗ࡲྟଆ ۴ऌඔऌটჷ҂đॖၛϜဒ႔Ⴥ໗ࡲྟ֥ࠎԤଆٳູਆնোğ၂ো൞ࣇࠎႿ߶࠹ඔऌ֥໗ࡲྟဒଆĠਸ਼၂ো൞ᇶေࠎႿ൧ӆඔऌ֥໗ࡲྟဒଆbЧ࣮Ⴈ֥नູభᆀbᇶေჰၹᄝႿğၛ൧ӆြࠛčܢௐ߭БੱĎቔູࣜ࠶႔Ⴥู֥սᆷѓ൞ڎކđ၂ᆰ൳֞ᇏຓં࣮֥ᇉၐđᄝݓᆃ၂໙ีіགྷ֤۷ູૼཁb၂ٚ૫đݓܢௐ൧ӆؿᅚ୍ඔഉഒđ൧ӆႵིྟඣႵཋđ൳ࣜ࠶ᆟҦ֥႕ཙޓնđࠏڄగࢠ୩đ൞ׅ֥“ᆟҦ൧”a“ཨ༏൧”đ֤ܢࡎѩ҂ିೂൌّ႘ఒြ֥ࣜႏሑঃđܢௐ߭Бੱॖିၛѽሚ֞܄ඳࣜ࠶႔Ⴥ֥э߄čဗ֣ૼaਟќބྌౢಅđ2007Ďbਸ਼၂ٚ૫đႭః൞ᄝܢಃٳᇂڿ۪ປӮభđીႵ൧ӆࡎ֥۬٤ੀ๙ܢ֥թᄝđ֝ᇁਔૄܢ߶࠹႔Ⴥބૄܢࣜ࠶႔Ⴥ࠹ෘ१֥ࣥ҂bၹູіᆘ߶࠹ြ֥ࠛૄܢ႔Ⴥඔऌສສ൞ࠎႿಆ҆ܢٺ࠹ෘđطܢௐ߭Бੱ๙ӈ൞ࠎႿੀ๙ܢ࠹ෘ֤টbܢಃٳᇂڿ۪௹ࡗđնਈ܄ඳ֥Ӊൈࡗ๔இđ္֤ܢࡎ҂ିࠣൈႵֹّི႘܄ඳ֥ࣜ࠶႔ჅbཌྷбࣇࠎႿ߶࠹ඔऌ֥ଆđሸކ߶࠹ඔऌބ൧ӆඔऌ֥ଆႮႿӁള֥ᄮၻࢠնđଆဒ֥ଽི҆ੱնູࢆ֮čक़ૹa৷வބཟဝđ2009ĎbࠎႿՎđЧ࣮࿊ᄴ֥൞ࣇࠎႿ߶࠹ඔऌ֥໗ࡲྟဒଆđᇶေႵᇕğBasu(1997)֥ҵٳ႔ჅଆaBall&Shivakumar(2005)֥ႋ࠹-གྷࣁੀଆބKhan&Watts(2009)֥CٳଆbBall&Shivakumar(2005)ಪູđթࠃੱᄝ႔Ⴥэ߄֥ଆᇏބᄝ႔Ⴥඣ֥ଆᇏіགྷԛ֥ૹۋྟ൞҂֥bᆞ൞ࠎႿҵٳଆऎႵ۷҂ၞ൳թࠃྟொҵ႕ཙ֥฿ಖႪׄđૌ࿊ႨBasu(1997)֥ҵٳ႔Ⴥଆቔູဒ֥ᇶଆđࢹުਆ۱ଆࣉྛૹۋҩ൫b ູ࣮ᇗඍభުᇗඍ܄ඳა٤ᇗඍ܄ඳ֥႔Ⴥ໗ࡲྟҵၳđᄝBasu(1997)ҵٳ႔ჅࠎЧଆ֥ࠎԤഈđࡆೆਔᇗඍაڎ֥ྴэਈࣉྛࢌđྙӮਔೂ༯ຉᅚଆğ ΔE=β+β*Neg+β*ΔE+β*Neg*ΔEt+101t2t3tt +β*Restate +β*Restate*Neg+β*Restate*ΔE4t5tt6tt +β*Restate*Neg*ΔE+εčAĎ 7tttt ఃᇏđΔEіൕt+2୍აt+1୍२Ԣ٤ࣜӈྟၭ֥࣪০ĠΔEіൕt+1୍აt୍२t+1tԢ٤ࣜӈྟၭ֥࣪০Ġ֒ΔE <0ൈđྴэਈNegĢ1ĠڎᄵđNegĢ0bRestateູྴttttэਈđ൞߶࠹ᇗඍ܄ඳູ1đڎᄵູ0b߶࠹ᇗඍభ௹֥݂߭ᇏđt୍ູᇗඍ୍֥భ2୍đt+1୍ູᇗඍ୍֥భ1୍đt+2୍ູᇗඍ୍֒Ġ߶࠹ᇗඍު௹֥݂߭ᇏđt୍ູᇗඍ୍֒Ġt+1୍ູᇗඍ୍ު1୍đt+2୍ູᇗඍ୍֥ު2୍b ླေᇗܱׄᇿ֥༢ඔࠣఃࣜ࠶ၩၬೂ༯ğ༢ඔβіൕ٤ᇗඍ܄ඳ֥ᆞڵ႔Ⴥэ߄ਈ֥3ࠣൈྟҵၳđβཁᇷཬႿ0đඪૼ٤ᇗඍ܄ඳ֥ڵ႔Ⴥэ߄čߊཨ༏Ďбᆞ႔Ⴥэ߄čݺ3ཨ༏Ď۷ऎႵࠣൈྟđࠧ٤ᇗඍ܄ඳթᄝ႔Ⴥ໗ࡲྟb༢ඔβّ႘֥൞ᇗඍ܄ඳა٤ᇗඍ6
܄ඳᄝݺཨ༏ಒಪഈ֥ҵၳđβ<0đᄵඪૼᇗඍ܄ඳ۷Ⴕॖିಒಪᄠൈྟ০֤bβіൕ67֥൞ᇗඍ܄ඳა٤ᇗඍ܄ඳಒಪࣜ࠶ാ֥ࠣൈྟ֥ҵၳđβ<0đіૼᇗඍ܄ඳ۷ऎ໗7ࡲྟĠβ>0đіૼ٤ᇗඍ܄ඳ۷ऎ໗ࡲྟb 7ၛഈ۱эਈनႨनሹሧӁჍၛѓሙ߄đఃᇏनሹሧӁ֩Ⴟ௹ԚሹሧӁބ௹ଌሹሧӁ֥नඔb ႋ࠹ᇉਈଆ č1ĎࠎЧනམ Dechow&Dichev(2002)֥ႋ࠹ᇉਈଆčၛ༯ࡥӫ“DDଆ”Ď֥ࠎЧනམ൞ğ֒௹႔ჅॖႨഈ௹a֒௹ބ༯௹ൌགྷᄝЧ௹ಒಪ֥གྷࣁੀਈࠣఃטᆜ༂ҵটіൕbႻၹູ႔ჅĢႋ࠹ཛଢ+གྷࣁੀਈđၹط֒௹ႋ࠹ཛଢაഈ௹ބ༯௹གྷࣁੀਈᆞཌྷܱđა֒௹གྷࣁੀਈڵཌྷܱb༂ҵཛѽሚ֥൞ႋ࠹ཛଢିᄝ؟նӱ؇ഈّ႘ൌགྷ֥གྷࣁੀਈđܣॖႨটޙਈႋ࠹ཛଢ֥ᇉਈbಖطđགྷࣁੀਈ֥ܒӮمٳđၹطDechow&Dichev(2002)Ⴈੀྟႋ࠹ཛଢčႨႏᄎሧࣁэحWCіൕĎaࣜႏࠃགྷࣁੀਈčOCFĎܒࡹൌᆣଆbMcNichols(2002)ؓDechow&Dichev(2002)Ⴈ֥ٚمࣉྛฐษؿགྷđDDଆࡌקܙ࠹༂ҵ҂թᄝሱཌྷܱđ৫Ⴟၘൌགྷ֥གྷࣁੀਈđࠧDDଆ֥ᇶေනམ൞ࠎႿ҂թᄝ႔Ⴥ֥ܵࡌקᆭ༯ิԛ֥b൞ܵҪႵҠ॥ႋ࠹֥ࠏၘФ௴ђᆣૼđೂݔ҂ॉ੮Ҡ॥ྟႋ࠹֥႕ཙđᄵᄝ၂קӱ؇ഈ߶႕ཙଆ֥ࢳ৯bၹՎđMcNichols(2002)ࢹ࠹ਈҠ॥ྟႋ࠹֥Jones(1991)ଆčၛ༯ࡥӫ“౪ථଆ”Ďđ ࡼDDଆა౪ථଆࢲކđิԛਔྩᆞު֥DDଆčၛ༯ࡥӫ“ྩᆞDDଆ”đٚӱBĎđࠢਆᆀႪׄႿ၂ദđൈႻࡨഒਔҩਈ༂ҵbႨൌᆣඔऌؓDDଆa౪ථଆaྩᆞDDଆٳљဒުđMcNichols(2002)ؿགྷđྩᆞDDଆ֥ყҩି৯֥ಒ൞ቋ఼֥b WCĢφ+φOCF+φOCF+φOCF+φSales+φPPE+εčBĎ t01t-12t3t+14t5tt ࠎႿՎđЧ࣮ؓႋ࠹ᇉਈ֥ҩ؇ҐႨ֥൞ྩᆞDDଆbDechow&Dichev(2002)ᇏҐႨ֥൞ൈࡗਙඔऌđၹطఃႨҗҵ֥ѓሙҵቔູႋ࠹ཛଢᇉਈ֥ҩ؇b൞ႮႿᇏݓᆣಊ൧ӆթᄝൈࡗഉ؋đᇏݓ൧ӆඔऌສສᆺିҐႨޘࢩ૫݂߭đၹطაྌౢಅč2004Ďaરྍඍč2009Ď֩ն҆ٳ࣮၂ᇁđЧ࣮ҐႨҗҵ֥धؓᆴটіᆘႋ࠹ᇉਈbҗҵ֥धؓᆴᄀնđіૼႋ࠹ᇉਈᄀҵb č2Ďᇶေэਈקၬࠣ࠹ෘٚم æႏᄎሧЧ ႏᄎሧЧĢ२Ԣ٤ࣜӈྟၭު֥࣪০Ēࣜႏࠃགྷࣁੀਈ+ᅼࣸح+ขཧح Ģࣜႏྟႋ࠹ཛଢ+ᅼࣸح+ขཧح Ģࣜӈྟႋ࠹ཛଢ+ሧӁࡨᆴሙС+“ܥקሧӁᅼࣸaႲగሧӁᅼݻaളӁྟളሧӁᅼࣸ”+ྙሧӁขཧ+Ӊ௹րขٮႨขཧ çܥקሧӁ ۴ऌ౪ථଆ֥ഡקđଆᇏ֥ܥקሧӁčPPEĎႋႨܥקሧӁჰᆴđႮႿᄝݓҍༀБіุ༢༯ܥקሧӁᅼࣸބܥקሧӁࡨᆴሙС֥ඔऌ҂ॖ֤đܣم࠹ෘ֤֞ࣚಒ֥ܥקሧӁჰᆴbܣҐ౼ਔਆᇕูսٚمbֻ၂ᇕูսэਈ֥࠹ෘٚم൞ğܥקሧӁ࣪ح+ሧӁࡨᆴሙС+ܥקሧӁᅼࣸaႲగሧӁᅼݻaളӁྟളሧӁᅼࣸđᆃ၂ܙ࠹ᆴնႿൌ࠽ᆴĠֻؽᇕูսэਈ֥࠹ෘٚم൞ğܥקሧӁ࣪حđᆃ၂ܙ࠹ᆴཬႿൌ࠽ᆴb๙ݖֆؓ౪ථଆ֥ဒؿགྷđ০Ⴈభᆀ࠹ෘԛ֥эਈࣉྛ݂֥߭༢ඔбުᆀ۷ژކ౪ථଆ֥ࢲݔđၹطϜֻ၂ᇕูսэਈ࠹ෘٚمႋႨႿᇶဒđϜֻؽᇕูսэਈ࠹ෘٚمႨႿૹۋҩ൫bაᆭభ࣮োරđູਔ॥ᇅܿଆၹބၳٚҵ֥႕ཙđ෮ႵэਈनҐႨਔႮt-1୍ଌބt୍ଌ֥ሹሧӁෘ֤֥नሹሧӁჍၛѓሙ߄ࡨbఃᇏđOCFіൕ֥൞t௹֥ࣜႏྟགྷࣁੀਈ࣪حtčOperating Cash FlowsĎĠACCіൕ֥൞t௹ࣜႏྟႋ࠹ཛଢඔحčOperating AccrualsĎb t
ႋ࠹ཛଢ๙ӈႵགྷࣁੀਈіمބሧӁڵᅏіمਆো࠹ෘٚൔbႮႿሧӁڵᅏіم࠹ෘႋ࠹ཛଢླေડቀۄ࣪ഺჅܱ༢đط۴ऌݓགྷྛ߶࠹ሙᄵщᇅҍༀБіൈđթᄝնਈಡݖ০іطᆰࢤ࠹ೆሧӁڵᅏі֥൬ၭཛଢđ෮ၛࠎႿݓഈ൧܄ඳඔऌ০ႨሧӁڵᅏіمࣉྛႋ࠹ཛଢ࠹ෘൈđ߶թᄝնਈᄮၻčરྍඍđ2009ĎbၹطᄝᇶဒᇏđૌҐႨ֥नູགྷࣁੀਈіمট࠹ෘႵܱэਈđၛ࣐ॖିֹࡨཬэਈ࠹ෘ༂ҵĠᄝૹۋҩ൫ᇏđႨሧӁڵᅏіم࠹ෘཌྷႋսэਈb ሸܴᇏຓൌᆣ࣮໓ངđؓࣜႏྟႋ࠹ཛଢ๙ӈႨ࣪০ࠇႏြ০ࡨಀࣜႏࠃགྷࣁੀਈ֤֞b۴ऌݓགྷྛ߶࠹ሙᄵđ০і֥щᇅ൞οᅶರӈࠃބ٤ರӈࠃჍၛ߃ٳ֥đགྷࣁੀਈіᄵοࣜႏࠃaሧࠃބԔሧࠃࣉྛٳোđॖ߶࠹႔Ⴥაࣜႏࠃགྷࣁੀਈ֥࠹ෘ१ࣥѩ҂၂đႮՎᆰࢤཌྷࡨ֤֥֞ѩ҂൞ሙಒ֥ࣜႏྟႋ࠹ཛଢđܣླࣉྛсေטᆜbࣜႮؓݓགྷࣁੀਈіࡗࢤщᇅم֥ٳ༅֤ԛđ҂උႿࣜႏࠃಯಒಪႿ߶࠹႔Ⴥᇏ֥҆ٳཛଢčೂሧ൬ၭaҍༀٮႨa҆ٳሧӁԩᇂാa־վཛ֩ĎႋჍၛั4Ԣđטᆜު֥߶࠹႔Ⴥॖၛ࣍ර֩Ⴟ२Ԣ٤ࣜӈྟၭު֥࣪০bࠎႿՎđቋᇔ֤֥֞০Ⴈགྷࣁੀਈіم࠹ෘࣜႏྟႋ࠹ཛଢ֥܄ൔູğࣜႏྟႋ࠹ཛଢĢ२Ԣ٤ࣜӈྟၭު֥࣪০Ēࣜႏࠃགྷࣁੀਈb োරֹđॉ੮֞ݓҍༀБіщᇅေđሧӁڵᅏіم༯֥ࣜႏྟႋ࠹ཛଢĢčੀሧӁэ߄حĒࠊлሧӁэ߄حĒࢌၞྟࣁವሧӁэ߄حĒ1୍ଽ֞௹֥٤ੀሧӁэ߄حĎĒčੀڵᅏэ߄حĒ؋௹ࢹॻэ߄حĒႋڱܢ০э߄حĒ1୍ଽ֞௹֥٤ੀڵᅏэ߄حĎĒ࠹ิ֥ࡨᆴሙСĒܥקሧӁᅼࣸĒྙሧӁขཧĒӉ௹րขٮႨขཧb Վຓđູࢆ֮ܿଆၹބၳٚҵ֥႕ཙđЧ໓۲ଆᇏ֥эਈनႨਔሹሧӁࣉྛѓሙ߄ࡨb۴ऌଆ֥҂ၛູࠣٚьაোර࣮ؓбđ۴ऌ҂౦ঃࡨѓሙႵൈ࿊ᄴ֥൞௹ԚሹሧӁđႵൈ࿊ᄴ֥൞नሹሧӁb ඹaൌᆣࢲݔაٳ༅ č၂Ď߶࠹ᇗඍؓ႔Ⴥ໗ࡲྟ֥႕ཙ ؓ߶࠹ᇗඍభ֥ဒࢲݔཁൕđં൞ಆဢЧ௹ߎ൞ٳ୍۲௹݂߭ᇏđβᄝ1%֥ඣ3ഈཁᇷູڵđඪૼ٤ᇗඍ܄ඳ֥ڵ႔Ⴥэ߄бᆞ႔Ⴥэ߄۷ऎႵࠣൈྟđࠧ٤ᇗඍ܄ඳթᄝ໗ࡲྟbᄝ۲݂߭ᇏβࠫެູڵđᄝ࠹ഈ҂ཁᇷđᆃඪૼᄝᇗඍభđᇗඍ܄ඳა6٤ᇗඍ܄ඳᄝಒಪݺཨ༏ൈ҂թᄝཁᇷҵၳbβᄝ۲݂߭ᇏࠫެູᆞđᆺᄝ2009୍ऎ7Ⴕ࠹ཁᇷྟčᄝ10%֥ᇂྐඣ༯ཁᇷĎđᆃඪૼ߶࠹ᇗඍభ௹đᇗඍ܄ඳა٤ᇗඍ܄ඳᄝാಒಪࠣൈྟഈ္҂թᄝཁᇷҵၳbሸഈॖ֤ԛࢲંđ߶࠹ᇗඍؿളభđਆো܄ඳෙಖіགྷԛ၂ק֥໗ࡲྟđਆᆀ֥໗ࡲྟඣ҂թᄝൌᇉྟҵၳb ؓ߶࠹ᇗඍު֥ဒࢲݔཁൕđβᄝ۲௹݂߭ᇏनᄝ1%֥ඣഈཁᇷູڵđඪૼ٤ᇗ3ඍ܄ඳ֥ڵ႔Ⴥэ߄бᆞ႔Ⴥэ߄۷ऎႵࠣൈྟđࠧ٤ᇗඍ܄ඳթᄝ໗ࡲྟbٳ୍۲௹݂߭ᇏ༢ඔβ൞ཁᇷ֥đᄝ҂୍ٺఃژݼ҂đఃᇏ2005a2007a2008୍ٳљᄝ5%a61%ބ1%֥ඣഈཁᇷູڵđ2006୍ᄝ1%֥ඣഈཁᇷᆞbᆃུࢲݔᆞڵ҂୍֥ٺᆭࡗ֥ཌྷַཨđᄯӮਔᄝಆဢЧ௹݂߭ᇏ༢ඔβ֥҂ཁᇷbβᄝಆဢЧ௹ᄝ1%֥ᇂྐඣ67ഈཁᇷູᆞđᆃඪૼሹุটुđ߶࠹ᇗඍؿളުđ٤ᇗඍ܄ඳбᇗඍ܄ඳ۷ࠣൈֹಒಪਔߊཨ༏đіགྷ֤۷ູ໗ࡲb ॖđ߶࠹ᇗඍؿളުđᇗඍ܄ඳ֥႔Ⴥэ֤۷҂໗ࡲb 4 Վԩགྷࣁੀਈіم֥ႋ࠹ཛଢҩෘაᆭު֥ሧӁڵᅏіم֥ႋ࠹ཛଢҩෘჰđབྷરྍඍč2009Ďؓ۲োႋ࠹ཛଢ࠹ෘ֥བྷ༥ඪૼb
і1 ࡆೆ߶࠹ᇗඍэਈު֥Basu(1997)ҵٳ႔Ⴥຉᅚଆဒࢲݔ ༢ၹэਈΔE ಆဢЧ௹ 2006୍ 2007୍ 2008୍ 2009୍ 2010୍ t+1ඔ Neg β t1(***) (***)(**)() (**) (**) ΔE β t2(*) (**)() () (***) () Neg*ΔE β tt3(***) (***)(***)(***) (***) (***)߶ሱ ࠹эRestate β t4() () () () () () ᇗਈ ඍ Restate*Neg β tt5() () () () () () భ௹ Restate*ΔE β tt6() () () () () () Restate*Neg*ΔE β ttt7() () () () (*) () 2ކႪ؇čRĎ ٚӱᆜุཁᇷྟčFᆴĎ ဢЧਈ 5861 1116 1176 1169 1194 1206 ؟ᇗ܋ཌྟဒčVIFĎ ༢ၹэਈΔE ಆဢЧ௹ 2005୍ 2006୍ 2007୍ 2008୍ t+1ඔ Neg β t1(***) (***)() (**)(**) ΔE β t2(**) () (*) (***)() Neg*ΔE β tt3(***) (***)(***)(***)(***) ߶ሱ ࠹эRestate β t4() () (**)(*) () ᇗਈ ඍRestate*Neg β tt5() (*) (***)() () ު௹ Restate*ΔE β tt6() (**)(***)(***)(***) Restate*Neg*ΔE β ttt7(***) (***)() (**)() 2ކႪ؇čRĎ ٚӱᆜุཁᇷྟčFᆴĎ ဢЧਈ 4730 1173 1174 1187 1196 ؟ᇗ܋ཌྟဒčVIFĎ čؽĎ߶࠹ᇗඍؓႋ࠹ᇉਈ֥႕ཙ
і2 ᇗඍ܄ඳა٤ᇗඍ܄ඳ֥ႋ࠹ᇉਈбࢠčଆؓĎ नᆴ ᇏᆴ ଆؓ ҵၳ ҵၳ ҵၳ ҵၳ ٤ᇗඍ ᇗඍ ٤ᇗඍᇗඍ धؓඔཁᇷྟ धؓඔ ཁᇷྟ ಆဢ ****** Ч௹() () * ** 2006୍ () () ߶****** ࠹2007୍ () () ᇗ ඍ2008୍ () () భ௹ 2009୍ () () ****** 2010୍ () () ಆဢ ****** Ч௹() () ** ** ߶2005୍ () () ࠹ᇗ****** 2006୍ ඍ() () ު****** 2007୍ ௹ () () * 2008୍ () () ᇿğႨDDଆܙ࠹֥җҵ֥धؓᆴնཬսіႋ࠹ᇉਈ֥֮ۚbҗҵधؓᆴᄀնđႋ࠹ᇉਈᄀ֮b і3 ᇗඍ܄ඳა٤ᇗඍ܄ඳ֥ႋ࠹ᇉਈбࢠčࣚಒؓĎ नᆴ ᇏᆴ ࣚಒؓ ҵၳ ҵၳ ҵၳ ҵၳ ٤ᇗඍ ᇗඍ ٤ᇗඍᇗඍधؓඔཁᇷྟ धؓඔ ཁᇷྟ ಆဢ * Ч௹() () 2006 ߶() () ࠹ *** 2007 ᇗ() () ඍ 2008 భ() () ௹ 2009 () () * 2010 () () ಆဢ****** Ч௹() () ߶ 2005 ࠹ () () ᇗ** 2006 ඍ () () ު*** 2007 () () ௹ 2008 () () ᇿğႨDDଆܙ࠹֥җҵ֥धؓᆴնཬսіႋ࠹ᇉਈ֥֮ۚbҗҵधؓᆴᄀնđႋ࠹ᇉਈᄀ֮b
і4 ᇗඍა٤ᇗඍ܄ඳ֥ႋ࠹ᇉਈٳ୍؇бࢠ ࣮௹ࡗ ಆဢЧ௹ 2006୍2007୍2008୍ ᇗඍభ ᇗඍު ෮Ⴕ܄ඳ ҵၳ ** ** ཁᇷྟ () ()() () ᇗඍభ ᇗඍު ᇗඍ܄ඳ ҵၳ ଆ** ** ཁᇷྟ () ()() () ᇗඍభ ؓ ᇗඍު ٤ᇗඍ܄ඳ ҵၳ ཁᇷྟ () ()() () ᇗඍభ ᇗඍު ᇗඍ܄ඳ ҵၳ ࣚ** ** ཁᇷྟ ಒ() ()() () ᇗඍభ ؓ ᇗඍު ٤ᇗඍ܄ඳ ҵၳ ཁᇷྟ () ()() () ᇿğႨDDଆܙ࠹֥җҵ֥धؓᆴնཬսіႋ࠹ᇉਈ֥֮ۚb ؓྩᆞDDଆࣉྛٳ୍ٳྛြ֥ޘࢩ૫݂֤߭֞ҕඔ֥ܙ࠹༢ඔުđቋᇔ֤֥֞ဒࢲݔοᅶଆؓaࣚಒؓࣉྛޘཟაሺཟбࢠਙൕᄝі2ᇀі4ᇏbଆ֥ؓဒࢲݔཁൕđ߶࠹ᇗඍؿളభđᇗඍ܄ඳб٤ᇗඍ܄ඳ֥ႋ࠹ᇉਈ֮đᄝ߶࠹ᇗඍުਆো܄ඳ֥ᆃ၂ҵए٤ીႵࡨഒđّطࣉ၂҄ঔնbޘཟൈࡗਙбࢠ္ؿགྷđ٤ᇗඍ܄ඳᄝᇗඍభު֥ႋ࠹ᇉਈэ߄҂նĠᇗඍ܄ඳᄝᇗඍުбᄝᇗඍభ֥ႋ࠹ᇉਈཁᇷ༯ࢆbࣚಒ֥ؓဒࢲݔཁൕđᄝᇗඍభ௹đਆো܄ඳ֥ႋ࠹ᇉਈીႵཁᇷҵၳčֆՂՖඔᆴഈुᇗඍ܄ඳҗҵնĎĠᇗඍު௹đᇗඍ܄ඳ֥җҵधؓᆴཁᇷնႿ٤ᇗඍ܄ඳbሸކਆোဢЧࢲݔॖᆩđཌྷб٤ᇗඍ܄ඳđᇗඍ܄ඳᄝ߶࠹ᇗඍު֥ႋ࠹ᇉਈ༯ࢆđᆃॖିᄝޓնӱ؇ഈඪૼ܄ඳᄝᇗඍުႨႋ࠹ཛଢࣉྛҠ॥đՖط֝ᇁ႔Ⴥ໗ࡲྟ֥ࣉ၂҄ࢆ֮b čĎຉᅚဒࠣૹۋྟҩ൫ ࡆೆܿଆaሧӁڵᅏੱ֩॥ᇅэਈު֥ຉᅚဒ LaFond&Watts(2008)ಪູđ܄ඳܿଆэਈіᆘਔᆟᇍӮЧaᄝ؟ٳ҆ބཛଢᇏ֥߭Бބ႔Ⴥऊࠢđၛࠣྐ༏҂ؓӫbLaFond&Roychowdhury(2008)ಪູҍༀۗۆэਈđսіਔᅏಃದؓ໗ࡲྟ֥ေbࡆᆭࢹKhan&Watts(2009)֥Cٳଆ֥ႪׄđၹՎᄝ႔Ⴥ໗ࡲྟଆčٚӱAĎᇏႻࡆೆਔܿଆaሧӁڵᅏੱྙӮࣉ၂֥҄ຉᅚଆčٚӱA’Ďࣉྛဒbऎุଆູğ ΔE=β+β*Neg+β*ΔE+β*Neg*ΔEt+101t2t3tt +β*R+β*R*Neg+β*R*ΔE+β*R*Neg*ΔE 45t6t7tt+β*SIZE+β*SIZE*Neg+β*SIZE*ΔE+β*SIZE*Neg*ΔE 89t10t11tt+β*LEV+β*LEV*Neg+β*LEV*ΔE+β*LEV*Neg*ΔE+εčA’Ď 1213t14t15ttt č֒ΔE <0ൈđྴэਈNegĢ1ĠڎᄵđNegĢ0bĎ ttt
ਆဒ֥ࢲݔ၂ᇁbਸ਼ຓđࢲݔཁൕđܿଆᄀཬaڵᅏᄀ؟֥ఒြđ႔Ⴥᄀ໗ࡲbᆃაDhalival, Huang, Khurana&Pereira(2008)aಟބࡻݓč2011Ď֥࣮֩ࢲݔ၂ᇁb Ⴈҵٳགྷࣁੀਈଆูսགྷࣁੀਈଆ Dechow(1994)aBall&Shivakumar(2005)֥࣮֩नಪູđႋ࠹ཛଢ҂ࣇაགྷࣁੀਈඣཌྷܱđطაགྷࣁੀਈඣ္ऎႵཁᇷ֥ܱ৳ྟbႿՎđࢹBall&Shivakumar(2005)Ⴈ֥ૹۋྟҩ൫ဒđႨགྷࣁੀਈэ߄ูսགྷࣁੀਈඣđؓٚӱčBĎࣉྛਔᇗྍഡקbऎุଆೂ༯ğ WCĢφ+φOCF+φOCF+φOCF+φSales+φPPE+εčB’Ď t01t-12t3t+14t5tt ఃᇏđOCFіൕ֥൞t-1௹ᇀt௹֥ࣜႏࠃགྷࣁੀਈ֥э߄ᆴđႨt-1௹ଌ֥ሹሧt-1ӁჍၛѓሙ߄ࡨbဒࢲݔཁൕđࠎႿགྷࣁੀਈэ߄֥ႋ࠹ᇉਈଆࢲݔđѩીႵؿളൌᇉྟڿэb ఃຉᅚဒࠇૹۋҩ൫ Ч࣮ߎဒਔؿളۚܵэ۷֥ᇗඍ܄ඳᄝᇗඍభު֥႔Ⴥᇉਈҵၳđၛࠣ҂ؿఏ֥ٚᇗඍ܄ඳᄝᇗඍభު֥႔Ⴥᇉਈҵၳ౦ঃbࢲݔཁൕđؿളۚܵэ۷֥ᇗඍ܄ඳᄝ߶࠹ᇗඍުđ႔Ⴥ໗ࡲྟࢆ֥֮ږ؇ཬđႋ࠹ᇉਈ္ཌྷؓۚbؿఏູٚࡓܵ֒अ֥ᇗඍ܄ඳđ႔Ⴥ໗ࡲྟა٤ࡓܵ֒अؿఏ֥ᇗඍ܄ඳ֥ҵၳ҂նđႋ࠹ᇉਈᄵཌྷؓ۷ۚbՎຓđٳࣚಒؓაଆؓဢЧ֥ૹۋҩ൫ࢲݔनᄝᇶဒު۳ԛđܣໃᄝՎਙൕb aࢲંაఓൕ Ч໓๙ݖဒ߶࠹ᇗඍ܄ඳ႔Ⴥᇉਈᄝᇗඍభު֥э߄đটॉҳބࡎ߶࠹ᇗඍᇅ؇֥ൌ࠽ིݔbൌᆣࢲݔཁൕđ߶࠹ᇗඍؿളުđཌྷб٤ᇗඍ܄ඳđᇗඍ܄ඳ֥႔Ⴥэ֤۷҂໗ࡲđႋ࠹ᇉਈ္ૼཁࢆ֮bᆃඪૼđ߶࠹ᇗඍѩીႵᇗඍ܄ඳ֥႔Ⴥᇉਈ֤ၛൌᇉڿࣉđ߶࠹ᇗඍᇅ؇ི֥ݔ٤ӈႵཋđಯታրࡆ఼ބປb ః၂đႋࡆնؓ߶࠹ҵհ֥Ӳࢵ৯؇đᇗඍӮЧնႿᇗඍ൬ၭbࡆ఼߶࠹ᇗඍཌྷܱ֥߶࠹ሙᄵa൧ӆࡓܵܿᄵമᇀ൞߶࠹م֥ᇅקބᆳྛ৯؇bбೂđࢹૅݓ֥uSOXمσvđࡆ఼ᇶေ֥ۚܵಃᄳđсေൈॖࡆೆྗ൙ԩـbఃؽđႋࡹ৫ࡲಆິܿaິჿaಃ֥֩൙ුහьࢮ౻֡đၛႵ০Ⴟ۲ٚ০ၭཌྷܱᆀ֥ླྀܵࡓbఃđტބڿਅ܄ඳଽຓ҆ᇍളbྸ؟ၘႵ࣮іૼčೂჅ୮มđ2011Ďđ႔Ⴥᇉਈ҂൞ֆՂ֥߶࠹໙ีđ܄ඳᇍ൞ఃܱ֥႕ཙၹbࡲू֥܄ඳᇍളіགྷູ၂ᇕؿགྷࠏᇅđॖၛႵིჿඏ܄ඳྐ༏֥ಒಪa࠹ਈބđಒЌؓຓӯБ֥߶࠹ྐ༏֥ᇉਈb܄ඳᇍളđ൞ၛ܄ඳᇍࠏᇅູࠎԤđຓࡆ၂۱ऎႵ৫ྟ֥ഠ߶ᇏࢺߌࢫčೂᇿҨ߶࠹ഽaҍༀٳ༅ದჴaሧၿྛࡅaࡓܵࠏܒ֩ĎቆӮ֥ᆩ്܋ุčਟᇒۚބྷޞđ2007Ďbૅݓ֥νಖaൗ๙aീুđၛࠣݓ֥ၿܼ༰֩܄ඳ֥߶࠹Ԙ໔đᄝޓնӱ؇ഈඪૼਔđ܄ඳᇍള֥ാޙބാིđᇹӉਔҍༀ௺ᅊބ߶࠹ᇗඍ֥ؿളbၹՎđູਔቋնཋ؇ֹࢆ֮܄ඳҍༀհБႭః൞ܣၩၛՎቔູ႔Ⴥܵ൭؍֥ؿളۀੱđ҂ࣇေՖሙᄵᇅקބᆣಊࡓٚ૫ࣉྛܿٓđ္ေᇗ఼ׄ߄܄ඳଽຓ҆ᇍളđტປ֥ࣜದ൧ӆđഡᇂᇅޙܱ༢ބथҦࠗৣࠏᇅđ๙ݖࡲू֥ᇍളটЌᅰሧჷᇂིੱބ߶࠹ྐ༏ᇉਈb
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ќ ᇏݓದն࿐അ࿐ჽ2012ࢽ߶࠹࿐Ѱൖиြള ࠧࡼࣼᆯႿתҍࣜն࿐ ሰႯདğchinawangbin0412@ ๙ֹᆶğᇏݓದն࿐ჳඹੌ529൩ čКࣘ൧ݚᇏܱընࢧ59ݼĎ Ⴏᆟщğ100872
