IPO定价折扣与市场反应
最终定价与估价区间
IPO定价水平合理性传统评价
平衡发行公司(现有股东)最高发行价要求与IPO投资者(新股东)获得补偿其IPO投资风险的合理收益
定价合理性和上市后市场表现理想评价的国际惯例：
大规模公司：(P1-P0)/P0为10%—15%
小规模公司：20%—25%
据 Ibbotson 和 Ritter 1995年发表的研究报告，美国股票市场1960－1992年期间IPOs首日涨幅平均为%。
80年代，只有7起IPO首日涨幅超过100%
Microsoft1985年上市时盈利,每股定价 $21,首日收盘$28 , 涨幅为33%。
1995年8月8日，成立时间不到1年半的Netscape开创代表新经济的网络概念公司上市先河。主承销商Morgan Stanley路演前估价为$14，路演后将发行价提高到$28。上市当天最高价为$73，收盘价为$54，首日涨幅93%。
1999年，IPO首日平均收益70%，25%超过100%。VA Linux System首日涨幅达到空前的698%。
图表3
1
0
0
3
0
0
3
0
0
0
0
0
1
1
1
10
4
2
12
117
108
公司数量
年份
1980-2000年初始收益率超过100%的公司数量
99
1999 reserved-17x1a reserved-98x1a 2,750,000
1999 reserved-20x1a reserved-44x1a 2,500,000
1999 reserved-18x1a reserved-45x1a 7,800,000
1999 reserved-18x1a reserved-58x1a 2,500,000
1999 reserved-16x1a reserved-44x1a 6,500,000
1999 reserved-16x1a reserved-45x1a 2,600,000
1999 reserved-17x1a reserved-48x1a 3,000,000
1999 reserved-16x1a reserved-45x1a 3,500,000
1999 reserved-8x1a reserved-31x1a 5,000,000
1999 reserved-19x1a reserved-43x1a 4,000,000
1999 reserved-13x1a reserved-27x1a 3,500,000
1999 reserved-21x1a reserved-47x1a 2,200,000
1999 reserved-17x1a reserved-44x1a 3,000,000
1999 reserved-14x1a reserved-34x1a 3,000,000
1999 reserved-15x1a reserved-31x1a 3,500,000
1999 reserved-24x1a reserved-80x1a 3,650,000
1999 reserved-14x1a reserved-40x1a 5,000,000
1999 reserved-24x1a reserved-66x1a 4,500,000
1999 reserved-16x1a reserved-69x1a 10,000,000
1999 reserved-8x1a reserved-17x1a 2,500,000
1999 reserved-21x1a reserved-69x1a 9,375,000
1999 reserved-23x1a reserved-55x1a 5,500,000
1999 reserved-22x1a reserved-57x1a 4,200,000
1999 reserved-21x1a reserved-58x1a 6,000,000
1999 reserved-17x1a reserved-55x1a 7,000,000
1999 reserved-10x1a reserved-35x1a 2,200,000
1999 reserved-14x1a reserved-30x1a 3,650,000
1999 reserved-16x1a reserved-34x1a 3,000,000
1999 reserved-18x1a reserved-51x1a 3,900,000
1999 reserved-20x1a reserved-61x1a 4,000,000
1999 reserved-15x1a reserved-35x1a 3,000,000
1999 reserved-14x1a reserved-37x1a 4,000,000
1999 reserved-17x1a reserved-46x1a 3,000,000 1345
1999 reserved-19x1a reserved-60x1a 5,500,000
1999 reserved-21x1a reserved-68x1a 4,000,000
1999 reserved-23x1a reserved-84x1a 2,500,000
1999 reserved-20x1a reserved-77x1a 8,320,000
1999 reserved-19x1a reserved-45x1a 3,250,000
1999 reserved-16x1a reserved-40x1a 4,000,000
1999 reserved-15x1a reserved-42x1a 3,250,000
1999 reserved-23x1a reserved-90x1a 5,000,000
1999 reserved-34x1a reserved-99x1a 4,800,000
1999 reserved-14x1a reserved-37x1a 3,500,000
1999 reserved-14x1a reserved-65x1a 3,000,000
1999 reserved-21x1a reserved-61x1a 3,300,000
1999 reserved-15x1a reserved-37x1a 4,200,000
1999 reserved-20x1a reserved-67x1a 4,200,000
1999 reserved-15x1a reserved-32x1a 7,300,000
1999 reserved-15x1a reserved-51x1a 4,000,000
1999 reserved-9x1a reserved-21x1a 4,000,000
1999 reserved-17x1a reserved-56x1a 6,000,000
1999 reserved-21x1a reserved-75x1a 3,500,000
1999 reserved-15x1a reserved-41x1a 6,000,000
1999 reserved-28x1a reserved-63x1a 12,300,000
1999 reserved-18x1a reserved-50x1a 5,000,000
1999 reserved-12x1a reserved-24x1a 14,900,000
1999 reserved-14x1a reserved-52x1a 6,000,000
1999 reserved-14x1a reserved-47x1a 4,400,000
1999 reserved-16x1a reserved-36x1a 4,750,000
1999 reserved-8x1a reserved-24x1a 5,000,000
1999 reserved-7x1a reserved-18x1a 4,000,000
1999 reserved-12x1a reserved-26x1a 4,000,000
1999 reserved-16x1a reserved-48x1a 3,000,000
1999 reserved-16x1a reserved-45x1a 4,150,000
1999 reserved-15x1a reserved-52x1a 3,300,000
1999 reserved-19x1a reserved-75x1a 4,000,000
1999 reserved-25x1a reserved-156x1a 5,000,000
1999 reserved-12x1a reserved-28x1a 6,250,000
1999 reserved-20x1a reserved-53x1a 9,500,000
1999 reserved-15x1a reserved-32x1a 3,500,000
1999 reserved-18x1a reserved-42x1a 4,300,000
1999 reserved-14x1a reserved-42x1a 3,000,000
1999 reserved-12x1a reserved-27x1a 3,900,000
1999 reserved-14x1a reserved-56x1a 4,000,000
1999 reserved-17x1a reserved-41x1a 3,150,000
1999 reserved-17x1a reserved-38x1a 3,350,000
1999 reserved-18x1a reserved-79x1a 3,750,000
1999 reserved-16x1a reserved-48x1a 6,000,000
1999 reserved-14x1a reserved-35x1a 5,500,000
1999 reserved-38x1a reserved-185x1a 7,475,000
1999 reserved-18x1a reserved-54x1a 6,500,000
1999 reserved-19x1a reserved-42x1a 4,900,000
1999 reserved-18x1a reserved-37x1a 10,000,000
1999 reserved-26x1a reserved-145x1a 9,000,000
1999 reserved-12x1a reserved-29x1a 5,600,000
1999 reserved-22x1a reserved-128x1a 5,000,000
1999 reserved-15x1a reserved-62x1a 4,000,000
1999 reserved-14x1a reserved-53x1a 5,200,000
1999 reserved-16x1a reserved-40x1a 6,800,000
1999 reserved-20x1a reserved-51x1a 8,500,000
1999 reserved-19x1a reserved-87x1a 8,150,000
1999 reserved-18x1a reserved-55x1a 4,500,000
1999 reserved-11x1a reserved-25x1a 3,600,000
1999 reserved-8x1a reserved-19x1a 5,000,000
1999 reserved-13x1a reserved-38x1a 22,300,000
1999 reserved-19x1a reserved-55x1a 5,000,000
1999 reserved-15x1a reserved-33x1a 5,500,000
1999 reserved-24x1a reserved-126x1a 5,000,000 1422
1999 reserved-12x1a reserved-29x1a 6,000,000 1422
1999 reserved-15x1a reserved-56x1a 4,500,000
1999 reserved-20x1a reserved-63x1a 7,500,000
1999 reserved-17x1a reserved-44x1a 3,100,000
1999 reserved-12x1a reserved-44x1a 6,250,000
1999 reserved-20x1a reserved-57x1a 4,000,000
1999 reserved-14x1a reserved-41x1a 5,500,000
1999 reserved-26x1a reserved-76x1a 5,900,000
1999 reserved-18x1a reserved-63x1a 4,000,000
1999 reserved-21x1a reserved-84x1a 3,800,000
1999 reserved-30x1a reserved-239x1a 4,400,000
1999 reserved-17x1a reserved-59x1a 10,125,000
1999 reserved-16x1a reserved-33x1a 8,200,000
1999 reserved-48x1a reserved-280x1a 3,600,000
1999 reserved-20x1a reserved-45x1a 5,000,000
1999 reserved-16x1a reserved-39x1a 4,500,000
1999 reserved-16x1a reserved-42x1a 6,000,000
1999 reserved-28x1a reserved-77x1a 3,500,000
1999 reserved-16x1a reserved-40x1a 4,000,000
2000
reserved-13x1a reserved-52x1a 7,000,000
reserved-20x1a reserved-71x1a 4,000,000
reserved-13x1a reserved-37x1a 8,500,000
reserved-26x1a reserved-72x1a 6,000,000
reserved-29x1a reserved-97x1a 3,000,000
reserved-26x1a reserved-79x1a 5,250,000
reserved-16x1a reserved-57x1a 3,720,000
reserved-17x1a reserved-48x1a 4,000,000
reserved-14x1a reserved-33x1a 5,000,000
reserved-13x1a reserved-27x1a 2,750,000
reserved-22x1a reserved-100x1a 5,000,000
reserved-15x1a reserved-47x1a 8,000,000
reserved-36x1a reserved-172x1a 6,000,000
reserved-18x1a reserved-61x1a 3,500,000
reserved-17x1a reserved-49x1a 7,000,000
reserved-18x1a reserved-51x1a 5,000,000
reserved-20x1a reserved-40x1a 3,800,000
reserved-35x1a reserved-213x1a 4,100,000
reserved-21x1a reserved-50x1a 14,300,000
reserved-20x1a reserved-55x1a 4,000,000
reserved-24x1a reserved-75x1a 7,250,000
reserved-18x1a reserved-39x1a 4,500,000
reserved-22x1a reserved-46x1a 3,700,000
reserved-16x1a reserved-32x1a 4,500,000
reserved-27x1a reserved-88x1a 8,830,000
reserved-32x1a reserved-73x1a 2,000,000
reserved-14x1a reserved-29x1a 4,400,000
reserved-25x1a reserved-54x1a 20,000,000
reserved-18x1a reserved-57x1a 4,250,000
reserved-24x1a reserved-69x1a 8,000,000
reserved-24x1a reserved-72x1a 5,250,000
reserved-25x1a reserved-74x1a 5,000,000
reserved-21x1a reserved-62x1a 8,000,000
reserved-38x1a reserved-95x1a 23,000,000
reserved-24x1a reserved-93x1a 3,850,000
reserved-18x1a reserved-68x1a 10,000,000
reserved-24x1a reserved-57x1a 5,000,000
reserved-24x1a reserved-100x1a 5,000,000
reserved-30x1a reserved-141x1a 4,000,000
reserved-19x1a reserved-56x1a 5,000,000
reserved-20x1a reserved-56x1a 3,800,000
reserved-17x1a reserved-49x1a 5,000,000
reserved-16x1a reserved-40x1a 4,500,000
reserved-14x1a reserved-37x1a 11,000,000
reserved-14x1a reserved-29x1a 5,000,000
reserved-31x1a reserved-69x1a 2,720,000
reserved-18x1a reserved-48x1a 4,000,000
reserved-34x1a reserved-118x1a 5,000,000
reserved-14x1a reserved-36x1a 5,534,000
reserved-15x1a reserved-33x1a 4,000,000
reserved-20x1a reserved-51x1a 5,000,000
reserved-23x1a reserved-51x1a 5,000,000
reserved-25x1a reserved-83x1a 8,000,000
reserved-15x1a reserved-48x1a 4,000,000
reserved-15x1a reserved-57x1a 6,000,000
reserved-16x1a reserved-48x1a 9,100,000
reserved-27x1a reserved-90x1a 9,000,000
reserved-15x1a reserved-38x1a 5,500,000
reserved-15x1a reserved-40x1a 4,000,000
reserved-13x1a reserved-34x1a 5,000,000
reserved-14x1a reserved-33x1a 4,250,000
reserved-15x1a reserved-32x1a 5,500,000
reserved-20x1a reserved-55x1a 7,500,000
reserved-31x1a reserved-97x1a 7,000,000
reserved-36x1a reserved-85x1a 31,600,000
reserved-16x1a reserved-39x1a 6,000,000
reserved-20x1a reserved-57x1a 4,750,000
reserved-17x1a reserved-53x1a 8,000,000
reserved-28x1a reserved-86x1a 12,500,000
reserved-9x1a reserved-18x1a 5,000,000
reserved-16x1a reserved-32x1a 5,400,000
reserved-9x1a reserved-21x1a 4,000,000
95-96
1995 reserved-16x1a reserved-35x1a 2,000,000
1995 reserved-13x1a reserved-27x1a 2,400,000
1995 reserved-28x1a reserved-58x1a 5,000,000
1995 reserved-6x1a reserved-12x1a 2,400,000
1995 reserved-17x1a reserved-39x1a 1,800,000
1995 reserved-20x1a reserved-44x1a 3,900,000
1995 reserved-16x1a reserved-48x1a 2,000,000
1995 reserved-19x1a reserved-41x1a 5,500,000
1995 reserved-15x1a reserved-30x1a 2,500,000
1995 reserved-13x1a reserved-28x1a 4,400,000
1996 reserved-26x1a reserved-58x1a 3,360,000
1996 reserved-13x1a reserved-33x1a 2,600,000
1996 reserved-15x1a reserved-34x1a 2,500,000
1996 reserved-18x1a reserved-40x1a 3,200,000
97-98
1997 reserved-12x1a reserved-30x1a 2,750,000
1997 reserved-16x1a reserved-32x1a 3,000,000
1998 reserved-24x1a reserved-54x1a 3,500,000
1998 reserved-18x1a reserved-36x1a 2,254,000
1998 reserved-18x1a reserved-63x1a 2,500,000
1998 reserved-17x1a reserved-37x1a 4,750,000
1998 reserved-18x1a reserved-47x1a 3,500,000
1998 reserved-14x1a reserved-49x1a 2,100,000
1998 reserved-9x1a reserved-64x1a 3,100,000
1998 reserved-12x1a reserved-27x1a 5,000,000
1998 reserved-14x1a reserved-40x1a 7,000,000
1998 reserved-15x1a reserved-48x1a 1,500,000
1998 reserved-14x1a reserved-34x1a 4,000,000
1998 reserved-9x1a reserved-24x1a 1,600,000
Sheet4
1980 1
1981 0
1982 0
1983 3
1984 0
1985 0
1986 3
1987 0
1988 0
1989 0
1990 0
1991 0
1992 1
1993 1
1994 1
1995 10
1996 4
1997 2
1998 12
1999 117
2000 108
Sheet4
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
公司数量
年份
1980-2000年初始收益率超过100%的公司数量
80-94
1980 1,100,000
1983 770,000
1983 1,265,000
1983 1,000,000
1986 2,000,000
1986 1,650,000
1986 2,500,000
1992 1,100,000
1993 1,900,000
1994 2,400,000
1980年以来IPO首日涨幅最大的10家公司
公司名称 IPO时间 IPO价格 首日收盘价 首日涨幅
VA Linux $30 $ 698%
Theglobe $ 9 $ 606%
FoundryNetwork1999. 9 $25 $ 525%
WebMethods $35 $ 508%
FreeMarkets $48 $ 483%
Cobalt $22 $ 482%
$17 $ 474%
Akamai $26 $ 458%
CacheFlow $24 $ 427%
Crayfish $ $ 414%
1990－1998年期间4222家
IPO公司状况(2000年3月20日)
%摘牌
%交易价格
为当初IPO价格
%交易价格低于
IPO价格
%交易价格
超过IPO价格
IPO underpricing原因－发行企业
成长型公司，特别是帐面亏损的网络公司，急于获得承担经营风险的现金和股票市场地位。稳定队伍，扩大知名度。
新浪为什么坚持在NASDAQ下跌中上市？
最重要的意义不在于融资，而是率先圈
了一块地，可以对其他公司进行换股收
购，即新浪获得了购买其他公司的一种
货币；其次，新浪上市，达到了稳定军
心，稳定队伍，吸引人才的目的，通过
上市，公司在管理标准上也提升了一个
层次。因此，新浪率先上市形成了战略
机会和资源竞争优势地位。
首日涨幅高，发行公司募集资金没有达到应有的规模，但IPO发行股份数量少，如果价格维持在高水平，可以在几个月内高价增发新股。
年12月IPO募集$5600万，4个月后增发新股募集$亿。
eBay1998年9月IPO350万股，发行价格$18，7个月后再次发行650万股新股，发行价格达$170，两次发行中间还进行了1：3拆股。
Ford汽车公司1955年IPO，10年后才增发
AOL
1992年3月IPO，以$美元发行200万股;
1993年12月第2次发行100万股，发行价$66;
1995年10月第3次发行350万股，发行价$;
1998年6月第4次发行490万股，发行价$103。
四次新股发行筹资额分别为$2300万、$6600万
$20433万和$50470万。第4次新股发行的融资为
首次发行的22倍。
IPO underpricing原因－承销机制
IPO时，承销商发行的股份通常不超过企业申请发行股份数量的20%，并且发行价格低于路演或申购投资者愿意支付的价格。制造短缺。
承销商制造短缺，使申购者“I ask for the stars and settle for a slice of the moon”，例如，申购50,000股，能得到1,000就欣喜若狂。
IPO提供给外部公众投资者
的股份比例变化
35%
25%
20%
30%
1997
1998
1999
2000
承销商往往把数量有限、低估的股票分配给大的Mutual Funds，通常占发行总数的30%。
由于严重供不应求，大的Mutual Funds往往在股票上市的第1天高价出售所持股份，而同时申购的Individual investors按经纪人规定只能在股票上市的90天后出售股份。
IPO在美国称为造币方式, 是Brokerage行业利润最丰厚的业务，但只对部分承销商、经纪机构和投资者。
1999年，前25名的投资银行从IPO中获取承销费36亿美元，其中，Goldman Sachs、MSDW、Merrill Lynch,CS First Boston超过21亿美元。
华尔街不愿意改变数十年流传下来的IPO(操纵)机制(估价、路演、定价、股份分配和上市后的价格支持)
A股IPO定价及市场反应
市盈率限制时高科技股票与钢铁板块首发市盈率及首日平均涨幅之比较
高科技板块/发行市盈率（倍）
钢铁板块/发行市盈率
清华同方
邯郸钢铁
中兴通讯
阿城钢铁
长城电脑
杭钢股份
人福科技
广钢股份
华光科技
唐钢股份
湘计算机
大冶特钢
长春高新
北满特钢
北商技术
上海钢管
中信国安
西宁特钢
平均市盈率
平均市盈率
平均升幅
(%)
平均升幅
(%)
A股IPO定价及市场反应
新股发行定价改革后发行上市企业指标与1998年相关指标对比表（部分）
股票名称
地区
行 业
流通股（万股）
发行价格（股/元）
发行市盈率
首日涨幅(%)
98年行
业平均
98年行
业平均
98年行
业平均
98年行
业平均
山西兰花
山西
煤炭
6400
8000
67
中牧股份
北京
畜牧业
8000
6220
65
金宇集团
内蒙
生物制药
3500
3735
110
昌九股份
江西
化工化肥
5400
12795
60
北京城建
北京
建筑施工
8750
11400
10
有研硅股
北京
高科技
6500
8875
162
罗顿旅业
海南
旅游
5000
5820
44
中国国贸
北京
公共服务
16000
11400
7
中国化建
北京
建材
7000
5820
88
A股IPO定价及市场反应
1998年发行上市新股分行业市盈率结构
行 业
流通股
市盈率
发行价
平均涨幅%
石化
12795
纺织服装
5900
电子信息
8875
公用事业
11400
农林牧及食品加工
6220
医药及生物制品
3735
煤炭
8000
纸业
5375
冶金
12200
资料来源：巨灵股票信息系统
1999年 IPO定价及市场反应
行业
预测利润
（元/股）
发行市盈率
首日涨幅
钢铁冶金
%
综合
%
工业水泥
%
能源
%
化工
%
机械制造
%
汽车摩托
%
家电电器
%
工业
%
食品饮料包装
%
1999年 IPO定价及市场反应
行业
预测利润
（元/股）
发行市盈率
首日涨幅
钢铁冶金
%
综合
%
工业水泥
%
能源
%
化工
%
机械制造
%
汽车摩托
%
家电电器
%
工业
%
食品饮料包装
%
1999年 IPO定价及市场反应
农业
%
机电
%
纺织服装
%
基础建设
%
建筑建材
%
高科技
%
公路
%
生化医药
%
