퇐뺿놨룦 RESEARCH REPORT 훐킡웳튵냥뾪럅쪽벯뫏뺺볛킧맻 쪵횤퇐뺿 뿎쳢퇐뺿풱 훜럦 짮?횤좯붻틗쯹ퟛ뫏퇐뺿쯹 짮횤ퟛ퇐ퟖ뗚0095뫅
훐킡웳튵냥뾪럅쪽벯뫏뺺볛킧맻쪵횤퇐뺿 ퟷ헟볲뷩 훜럦 뮪훐뿆벼듳톧맜샭뿆톧폫릤돌ꎨ뷰죚릤돌ꎩ늩쪿ꎬ쿖퓚짮?횤좯붻틗쯹ꎨ뢴떩듳톧ꎩ늩쪿뫳릤ퟷ햾뷸탐늩쪿뫳퇐뺿ꎬ쿖퓚퇐뺿랽쿲캪횤좯붻틗쾵춳뒴탂폫쪵쿖ꆣ퓸닎폫뛠쿮뿎쳢뗄샭싛뫍쪵횤퇐뺿ꎬ늢퓚Fractals뗈뾯컯랢뇭컄헂죴룉ꆣ 솪쾵뗧뮰ꎺ0755ꎭ83254242 뗧ퟓ폊쿤ꎺFZHOU@ II
훐킡웳튵냥뾪럅쪽벯뫏뺺볛킧맻쪵횤퇐뺿 쓚 죝 쳡 튪 샺뺭룷랽쏦얬솦ꎬ뾪럅쪽벯뫏뺺볛뗄뾪엌랽쪽ꎬ쯦ퟅ훐킡웳튵냥짨솢ꎬ싊쿈퓚짮붻쯹췆돶ꆣ룃뒴탂틽웰쇋쫐뎡뗄맣랺맘힢ꎬ춶헟뫍톧헟쏇퓚뿏뚨듋쿮훆뛈뗄춬쪱ꎬ튲돶쿖쇋튻킩훃틉ꆣ놾컄믹폚쫐뎡뗄캯췐뫍돉붻쫽뻝ꎬ퓋폃춳볆ꆢ쒣쓢뗈랽램ꎬ춨맽8쿮횸뇪뛔훐킡웳튵냥쫗퓂짏쫐뗄24횧막욱폫짮뮦훷냥쫐뎡뗄훐킡엌막욱뷸탐뇈뷏ꎬ횼퓚좫쏦뿍맛뗄첽쳖듋쿮뒴탂뗄쫐뎡킧싊ꆣ놨룦훷튪뗃돶죧쿂뷡싛ꎺ ꎨ1ꎩ춨맽뇈뷏짮뮦퇹놾퓚탂막짏쫐쫗죕뗄쫐뎡뇭쿖ꎬ뗃돶뾪럅쪽벯뫏뺺볛뷏럢뇕쪽벯뫏뺺볛퓚탂막짏쫐쫗죕ꎬ컞싛듓춶헟닎폫틢풸뮹쫇듓쫐뎡킧싊랽쏦ꎬ뚼뻟폐뻸뛔폅쫆ꆣ ꎨ2ꎩ춨맽뛔탂냋막짏쫐쫗퓂뗄쫽뻝럖컶ꎬ죏캪뾪럅쪽벯뫏뺺볛퓚틽죫돵웚ꎬ쫐뎡퓚뾪엌횮잰듦퓚막볛춬쿲뇤뚯뗄쟩뿶ꎬ떫쯦ퟅ쫐뎡닎폫헟뛔맦퓲뗄샭뷢뫍샭탔뗄믘맩ꎬ듋쿖쿳폐쯹뮺뫍ꆣ ꎨ3ꎩ춨맽뛔훆뛈퓋탐튻룶퓂뫳뗄탂냋막뫍짮쫐킡엌막뗄뇈뷏ꎬ랢쿖춶헟닎폫뾪럅쪽벯뫏뺺볛뗄틢풸훰붥붵뗍ꎬ돽쇋퓚뚨볛킧싊랽쏦ꎬ웤폠폅쫆늻짵쏷쿔ꆣ ꎨ4ꎩ춨맽샭싛럖컶ꎬ뗃돶솽룶췆싛ꎺ뾪엌닎뾼볛뿉틔캪춶헟닎폫뾪럅쪽벯뫏뺺볛쳡릩쿂떥틀뻝ꎻ뾪럅쪽벯뫏뺺볛폐샻폚복짙솬탸뺺볛뗄볛룱늨뚯ꆣ 쇭췢ꎬ헫뛔탂훆뛈뿉쓜듦퓚뗄닙ퟝ컊쳢ꎬ놨룦쳡돶쇋맘폚퇓뎤뾪럅쪽벯뫏뺺볛뷗뛎늻뿉뎷떥쪱볤뗄붨틩ꎬ늢룸돶쇋뻸뛔퇓뎤뫍쿠뛔퇓 III
훐킡웳튵냥뾪럅쪽벯뫏뺺볛킧맻쪵횤퇐뺿 뎤뗄솽훖랽낸ꆣ 맘볼ퟖꎺ뾪럅쪽벯뫏뺺볛 훐킡웳튵냥 뚨볛킧싊 IV
훐킡웳튵냥뾪럅쪽벯뫏뺺볛킧맻쪵횤퇐뺿 쒿 슼 쓚 죝 쳡 튪........................................III 쒿 슼...............................................V 튻ꆢ틽퇔.............................................1 1. 놳뺰....................................................1 2. 맺볊ힴ뿶................................................1 3. 컒맺뾪엌벯뫏뺺볛맦퓲....................................4 4. 컄쿗ퟛ쫶................................................5 뛾ꆢ퇹놾뫍횸뇪톡좡..................................10 1. 퇹놾톡좡...............................................10 2. 횸뇪톡좡...............................................11 죽ꆢ쪵횤폫럖컶......................................13 1. 짮쫐퇹놾짏쫐쫗죕쫐뎡ힴ뿶...............................13 2. 짏쫐쫗죕벯뫏뺺볛킧싊뇈뷏...............................14 3ꎮ 탂냋막뾪럅쪽벯뫏뺺볛쫗퓂뇭쿖..........................17 4ꎮ 탂냋막폫짮쫐훐킡엌막욱뇈뷏............................20 쯄ꆢ솽룶췆싛........................................22 1. 뾪엌닎뾼볛캪춶헟닎폫뾪럅쪽벯뫏뺺볛쳡릩룼뛠틀뻝.......22 2. 뾪럅쪽벯뫏뺺볛폐샻폚복짙솬탸뺺볛뗄볛룱늨뚯.............24 컥ꆢ뷡싛벰붨틩......................................27 1. 믹놾뷡싛...............................................27 2. 훆뛈붨틩...............................................27 닎뾼컄쿗............................................30 뢽뇭1 퇐뺿퇹놾벰럖샠................................31 V
훐킡웳튵냥뾪럅쪽벯뫏뺺볛킧맻쪵횤퇐뺿 튻ꆢ틽퇔 1. 놳뺰 2004쓪6퓂25죕훐킡웳튵냥탂막뾪쪼짏쫐ꎬ삭뾪쇋컒맺붨짨뛠닣듎놾쫐뎡뗄탲쒻ꆣ폫훷냥붻틗훆뛈쿠뇈ꎬ훐킡웳튵냥붻틗훆뛈훷튪폐쯄룶랽쏦뗄뇤뮯ꎺ튻쫇훐킡웳튵냥막욱틔뾪럅쪽벯뫏뺺볛뗄랽쪽뷸탐ꎬ뛸훷냥쫐뎡쫇럢뇕쪽벯뫏뺺볛ꎻ뛾쫇훐킡웳튵냥막욱닉폃벯뫏뺺볛뗄랽쪽좷뚨쫕엌볛ꎬ뛸훷냥쫐뎡닉폃뗄쫇튻뚨쪱볤쓚돉붻볛내돉붻솿볓좨욽뻹뗄랽쪽ꎻ죽쫇훐킡웳튵냥붫룄뷸붻틗릫뾪탅쾢엻슶훆뛈틔벰틬뎣늨뚯춣없훆뛈ꎻ쯄쫇훐킡웳튵냥붫췆돶훐킡웳튵냥횸쫽ꎬ틔랴펳훐킡웳튵냥뗄ퟟ쫆ꆣ퓚퓋탐맽돌훐ꎬ헢벸쿮뒴탂뗃떽쇋쫐뎡뗄맣랺맘힢ꎬ웤훐뛔뾪럅쪽벯뫏뺺볛훆뛈뗄쳖싛폈캪벤쇒ꆣ 2. 맺볊ힴ뿶 붻틗훆뛈쫇놣횤횤좯쫐뎡퓚릫뾪ꆢ릫욽ꆢ릫헽풭퓲쿂퓋ퟷ뗄튻쿮훆뛈ꆣ붻틗훆뛈뗄쒿뇪퓚폚쳡릩붡좫뗄붻틗짨쪩,놣횤횤좯볛룱릫욽ꆢ폐킧뗘탎돉ꆣ웤훷튪릦쓜횮튻뻍쫇쪹잱퓚뗄춶헟탨쟳뮯캪쪵볊붻틗ꎬ헢튻뮯맽돌뗄맘볼쫇볛룱랢쿖폫좷뚨맽돌ꆣ맺볊횤좯붻틗쯹솪뫏믡(FIBV)폐맘놨룦횸돶,붻틗훆뛈뗄폅쇓폫럱,훷튪뾴붻틗맽돌훐뗄폐맘뒦샭ퟷ튵(죧볛룱탎돉ꆢ싲싴돌탲ꆢ탅쾢뒫능뗈)뗄훊솿,튲뻍쫇쫐뎡뗄훊솿ꆣ헢샯ꆰ훊솿ꆱ튻듊뗄몬틥벫캪맣랺,뛔늻춬뗄ퟷ튵뷗뛎폫쿮쒿폐늻춬뗄몬틥,훷튪쫇횸쇷뚯탔ꆢ춸쏷탔ꆢ컈뚨탔뫍폐킧탔ꆣ 1
훐킡웳튵냥뾪럅쪽벯뫏뺺볛킧맻쪵횤퇐뺿 훊솿룟뗄쫐뎡쓜퓚놣돖쫐뎡컈뚨탔뗄잰쳡쿂,퓶볓쫐뎡쇷뚯탔ꆢ춸쏷탔뫍폐킧탔뗄쫐뎡ꆣ 벯뫏뺺볛뫍솬탸붻틗쫇솽훖쪹폃럇뎣맣랺뗄횤좯볛룱랢쿖믺훆ꆣ퓚솬탸붻틗쫐뎡ꎨ냼삨솬탸뺺볛쫐뎡뫍ퟶ쫐짌쫐뎡ꎩꎬ붻틗퓚붻틗죕뗄룷룶쪱뗣솬탸늻뛏뗘뷸탐ꎬ룹뻝뚩떥욥엤맦퓲ꎬ횻튪듦퓚솽룶쿠욥엤뗄뚩떥ꎬ붻틗뻍믡랢짺ꆣ폫솬탸붻틗쿠랴ꎬ벯뫏뺺볛쫐뎡퓲쫇튻룶볤뛏탔뗄쫐뎡ꎬ벴춶헟ퟷ돶싲싴캯췐뫳ꎬ늻쓜솢벴돉붻ꎬ뛸쫇퓚쒳튻맦뚨뗄쪱볤ꎬ평폐맘믺릹붫퓚늻춬쪱뗣쫕떽뗄뚩떥벯훐웰살ꎬ내헕춬튻볛룱뷸탐욥엤돉붻ꆣ벯뫏뺺볛쫇튻훖쪮럖훘튪뗄볛룱랢쿖믺훆ꎬ헢늻뷶틲캪퓚벯뫏뺺볛쫐뎡늻듦퓚싲싴볛닮ꎬ뛸쟒튲틲캪벯뫏뺺볛춨뎣폃폚뾪엌뫍쫕엌ꎬ웤닺짺뗄볛룱쫇춶헟맣랺맘힢뗄뇪횾탔볛룱ꆣ 뾪엌볛쫇붻틗죕뗄뗚튻룶붻틗볛룱ꎬ춨뎣랴펳쇋뾪엌횮잰쎻폐붻틗뗄뷏뎤튻뛎쪱볤뗄샛믽쫐뎡탅쾢ꆣ틲듋ꎬ뾪엌볛룱쓜캪떱죕뗄볛룱뇤뮯쳡릩튻룶탅뫅ꎬ뛔떱죕뗄볛룱랢쿖뻟폐뷏듳뗄펰쿬ꆣ듓쫀뷧룷맺횤좯쫐뎡뗄쪵볹살뾴,훷튪뗄뾪엌붻틗랽쪽폐벯뫏뺺볛(Call Market, Batch Open)뫍훐볤죋뾪엌붻틗랽쪽(Intermediated Open)솽훖,잰헟틔뚫뺩뫍몫맺횤좯붻틗쯹캪뗤탍,뫳헟퓲훷튪놻ퟶ쫐짌ꎨ볒ꎩ쫐뎡ꆪꆪ죧NYSE뫍NASDAQꆪꆪ쯹닉폃ꆣ뾪엌붻틗랽쪽훐탨튪뾼싇뗄ퟮ맘볼컊쳢쫇쫐뎡뗄춸쏷뛈뫍붻틗횸쇮쓜럱룼룄ꆣNYSE닉좡뗄훐볤죋뾪엌붻틗랽쪽,틀뾿횸뚨붻틗짌믲헟ퟶ쫐짌살뻶뚨횤좯뗄뾪엌볛룱,헢튻랽쪽뛔컈뚨쫐뎡볛룱폐냯훺,떫쿠뛔폚튻냣춶헟,ퟶ쫐짌뻟폐뷏쏷쿔뗄탅쾢폅쫆,듓뛸쪹탅쾢릫욽쓑틔쪵쿖ꆣ늻맽뻸듳뛠쫽횤좯쫐뎡춨맽 2
훐킡웳튵냥뾪럅쪽벯뫏뺺볛킧맻쪵횤퇐뺿 벯뫏뺺볛닺짺뾪엌볛ꎬ죧싗뛘ꆢ램삼뿋뢣ꆢ틢듳샻ꆢ뚫뺩ꆢ몫맺ꆢ탂볓웂ꆢ벪슡웂ꆢ첨췥뗈ꆣ 듓탅쾢엻슶뷇뛈뾴ꎬ벯뫏뺺볛뿉럖캪솽훖쟩뿶ꎬ벴뾪럅쪽벯뫏뺺볛뫍럢뇕쪽벯뫏뺺볛ꆣ잰헟횸퓚벯뫏뺺볛맽돌훐ꎬ벴쪱쿔쪾싲싴엌탅쾢뫍횸쪾탔뾪엌볛룱ꎻ뫳헟횸퓚벯뫏뺺볛맽돌훐늻엻슶죎뫎탅쾢ꎬ뷶뷶퓚벯뫏뺺볛맽돌뷡쫸뫳엻슶돉붻볛룱뫍돉붻쟩뿶ꆣ뛠싗뛠ꆢ싗뛘ꆢ냍샨ꆢ뗂맺ꆢ냄듳샻퇇뗈쫐뎡닉좡뾪럅쪽벯뫏뺺볛쒣쪽ꆣ쿣룛붻틗쯹퓚2002쓪3퓂룄룯뾪엌훆뛈뫳ꎬ튲틽죫쇋뾪럅쪽벯뫏뺺볛랽쪽ꎬ쪵쪱릫늼닎뾼욽뫢볛ꎨIEPꎩ뫍닎뾼욽뫢솿ꎨIEVꎩꆣ쮹뗂룧뛻쒦붻틗쯹뾪엌벯뫏뺺볛닉좡럢뇕쒣쪽ꎬ떫퓚쿂컧뗄벯뫏뺺볛뫍쫕엌벯뫏뺺볛퓲닉좡뾪럅쪽쒣쪽ꆣGlobex웚믵붻틗쾵춳닉좡뗄벯뫏뺺볛랽쪽붫붻틗럖돉죽룶뷗뛎:웤훐뗚튻룶뷗뛎붻틗헟뿉틔좡쿻믲룼룄횸쇮,뗚뛾룶뷗뛎 횻뿉틔볌탸뷓쫜횸쇮,뗚죽룶뷗뛎늻퓙뷓쫜탂뗄횸쇮,듓뛸닺짺뾪엌볛룱ꆣGlobex웚믵붻틗쾵춳뮹맦뚨,퓚뗚튻뷗뛎붫뛠듎룹뻝떱잰뗄싲싴횸쇮볆쯣늢릫늼탩쓢뗄뾪엌볛룱(Indicative Opening Price, IOP),춬쪱퓚뗚뛾뷗뛎릫늼튻듎ꆣ뛠싗뛠횤좯붻틗쯹(TSE)뫍냍샨횤좯붻틗쯹(Paris Bourse)맦뚨,퓚7ꇃ00ꆪ9ꇃ30뷓쫜뾪엌캯췐횸쇮,뛸붫싴돶뫍싲죫뗄쫐볛횸쇮뾴돉쫇볛룱캪0뫍10000뗄쿞볛횸쇮닎폫뾪엌붻틗,춬쪱붻틗헟뿉틔뎷쿻믲헟룼룄붻틗횸쇮,뛔뎷쿻믲헟룼룄붻틗횸쇮늻ퟶ뒦랣ꎻ쇭췢쾵춳뮹룹뻝뷸죫쾵춳뗄싲싴횸쇮쯦쪱볆쯣떱잰뿉쓜뗄뾪엌볛(Calculating Opening PriceꎬCOP)ꎬ늢쿲쯹폐붻틗헟릫늼,듓뛸쪹쯻쏇쇋뷢맘폚붻틗뗄폐맘탅쾢ꆣ 3
훐킡웳튵냥뾪럅쪽벯뫏뺺볛킧맻쪵횤퇐뺿 3. 컒맺뾪엌벯뫏뺺볛맦퓲 퓚컒맺짮뮦막욱쫐뎡훐ꎬ쎿룶붻틗죕뗄뾪엌볛룱뻹춨맽벯뫏뺺볛닺짺ꆣ횤좯쫐뎡뾪엌벯뫏뺺볛맽돌캪ꎺ듓9:15뾪쪼뷓쫕벯뫏뺺볛뚩떥ꎬ떽9:25뷡쫸ꎬ쯦벴룸돶벯뫏뺺볛뗄돉붻볛룱ꎬ튲뻍쫇떱쳬뗄뾪엌볛ꆣ9:25-9:30캪샤좴웚ꎬ늻뷓쫕죎뫎뚩떥ꆣ9:30뾪쪼훘탂뷓쫕뚩떥ꎬ늢뾪쪼솬탸뺺볛붻틗뷗뛎ꆣ벯뫏뺺볛뗄쯹폐붻틗틔춬튻볛룱돉붻ꆣ벯뫏뺺볛캴돉붻뗄싲싴짪놨ퟔ뚯뷸죫솬탸뺺볛ꆣ짮뮦붻틗쯹훷냥뗄벯뫏뺺볛쫇튻훖럢뇕쪽벯뫏뺺볛ꎬ쾵춳퓚벯뫏뺺볛맽돌훐늻엻슶죎뫎탅쾢ꎬ죧춼1쯹쪾ꆣ 늻뷓쫕캯췐09:15 09:2509: 3015:00럢뇕쪽벯뫏뺺볛쪱뛎샤좴웚 솬탸뺺볛쪱뛎 춼1 럢뇕쪽벯뫏뺺볛캯췐맦퓲쪾틢춼 짮붻쯹냤늼뗄ꆶ훐킡웳튵냥붻틗쳘뇰맦뚨ꆷ쿠뇈2001쓪8퓂릫늼뗄ꆶ짮?ꆢ짏몣횤좯붻틗쯹붻틗맦퓲ꆷꎬ뾪엌벯뫏뺺볛랽쪽랢짺쇋훘튪뗄뇤뮯ꎬ벴럅웺쇋풭폐뗄럢뇕쪽벯뫏뺺볛ꎬ룄캪닉폃뾪럅쪽뾪엌벯뫏뺺볛ꆣ웤훐ꎬ뗚죽쳵ꆰ쎿룶붻틗죕9ꇃ15훁9ꇃ25캪훐킡웳튵냥뾪엌벯뫏뺺볛쪱볤ꆱꎬ뗚쯄쳵ꆰ뾪엌벯뫏뺺볛웚볤ꎬ놾쯹훷믺벴쪱뷒쪾훐킡웳튵막욱뗄뾪엌닎뾼볛룱ꆢ욥엤솿뫍캴욥엤솿ꆣ뾪엌닎뾼볛룱쫇횸뷘훁뷒쪾쪱쯹폐폐킧짪놨내헕벯뫏뺺볛맦퓲탎돉뗄탩쓢뾪엌볛룱ꎻ욥엤솿쫇횸뷘훁뷒쪾쪱쯹폐폐킧짪놨내헕벯뫏뺺볛맦퓲탎돉뗄탩쓢돉붻쫽솿ꎻ캴욥엤솿쫇횸뷘훁뷒쪾쪱퓚뾪엌닎뾼볛캻짏뗄늻쓜내헕뾪엌닎뾼볛탩쓢돉붻뗄싲랽믲싴랽캯췐쪣폠솿ꆱꆣ뻟쳥살쮵ꎬ퓚컥떵탐쟩 4
훐킡웳튵냥뾪럅쪽벯뫏뺺볛킧맻쪵횤퇐뺿 쿂ꎬ죧맻벯뫏뺺볛쪱캴욥엤솿캪쇣ꎬ퓲퓚싲튻뫍싴튻떵럖뇰뷒쪾뾪엌닎뾼볛룱뫍욥엤솿ꆣ죧맻벯뫏뺺볛쪱돶쿖캴욥엤솿캪싴랽쪣폠ꎬ퓲돽쇋퓚싲튻뫍싴튻떵럖뇰뷒쪾뾪엌닎뾼볛룱뫍욥엤솿췢ꎬ퓚싴뛾뗄쫽솿캻훃뷒쪾캴욥엤솿ꎬ컥떵훐뗄웤쯻떵뻹캪뿕냗ꎬ늻뷒쪾볛룱뫍쫽솿ꆣ죧맻벯뫏뺺볛쪱돶쿖캴욥엤솿캪싲랽쪣폠ꎬ퓲돽쇋퓚싲튻뫍싴튻떵럖뇰뷒쪾뾪엌닎뾼볛룱뫍욥엤솿췢ꎬ퓚싲뛾뗄쫽솿캻훃뷒쪾캴욥엤솿ꎬ컥떵훐뗄웤쯻떵튲뻹캪뿕냗ꎬ늻뷒쪾볛룱뫍쫽솿ꆣ뗚컥쳵ꆰ쎿룶붻틗죕9ꇃ20훁9ꇃ25ꎬ놾쯹훷믺늻뷓쫜훐킡웳튵막욱뗄뎷쿺짪놨ꆱꆣ 늻뿉뎷떥늻뷓쫕캯췐09:15 09:20 09:2509: 3015:00뾪럅쪽벯뫏뺺볛쪱뛎샤좴웚 솬탸뺺볛쪱뛎 춼2 뾪럅쪽벯뫏뺺볛캯췐맦퓲쪾틢춼 룹뻝ꆶ짮?ꆢ짏몣붻틗쯹붻틗맦퓲ꆷꎬ벯뫏뺺볛쪱ꎬ컞싛뾪럅쪽뮹쫇럢뇕쪽ꎬ돉붻볛룱뗄좷뚨풭퓲뻹캪ꎺaꆢ돉붻솿ퟮ듳뗄볛캻ꎻbꆢ룟폚돉붻볛룱뗄싲뷸짪놨폫뗍폚돉붻볛룱뗄싴돶짪놨좫늿돉붻ꎻcꆢ폫돉붻볛룱쿠춬뗄싲랽믲싴랽훁짙폐튻랽좫늿돉붻ꆣdꆢ솽룶틔짏볛캻럻뫏짏쫶쳵볾뗄ꎬ짮붻쯹좡뻠잰쫕엌볛ퟮ뷼뗄볛캻캪돉붻볛ꎬ짏붻쯹좡웤훐볤볛캪돉붻볛ꆣ벯뫏뺺볛뗄쯹폐붻틗틔춬튻볛룱돉붻ꆣ 4. 컄쿗ퟛ쫶 퓚샭싛뷧ꎬ뫜뛠톧헟죏캪틔벯뫏뺺볛랽쪽닺짺뾪엌볛폐뛠랽쏦뗄폅쫆ꆣEcnomidies(1995)뫍Schwartzꎨ1995ꎩꆢHanda뫍Schwartzꎨ1995ꎩ뗈죏캪ꎬ벯뫏뺺볛쫇룼뫃뗄뾪엌랽쪽ꎬ틲캪벯뫏뺺볛냑뚩떥쇷벯훐퓚 5
훐킡웳튵냥뾪럅쪽벯뫏뺺볛킧맻쪵횤퇐뺿 튻웰ꎬ늻탨튪훐뷩룉풤ꎬ틲듋붵뗍쇋붻틗돉놾ꎬ늢쳡룟쇋볛룱랢쿖뗄훊솿ꆣ퓚폐맘벯뫏뺺볛탅쾢엻슶랽쏦ꎬ짐좱랦뛔벯뫏뺺볛뚩떥늾춸쏷뛈컊쳢뗄샭싛폫쪵횤퇐뺿ꆣFriedmanꎨ1993ꎩ뷶룅삨쇋벯뫏뺺볛쫐뎡뚩떥늾춸쏷뛈뗄쯄훖쟩뿶ꎺ튻쫇쾵춳늻쳡릩죎뫎탅쾢ꎬ뷶퓚벯뫏뺺볛뷡쫸뫳엻슶쯹좷뚨뗄벯뫏뺺볛돉붻볛룱ꎻ뛾쫇쾵춳벴쪱엻슶횸쪾탔벯뫏뺺볛볛룱ꎻ죽쫇쾵춳퓚쫕벯뚩떥쪱늻엻슶죎뫎탅쾢ꎬ떫퓚벯뫏뺺볛볛룱좷뚨뫳ꎬ엻슶벯뫏뺺볛쯹좷뚨뗄볛룱틔벰뚩떥늾뗄햪튪탅쾢ꎻ쯄쫇퓚벯뫏뷗뛎쪵쪱엻슶뚩떥늾뗄햪튪쟩뿶틔벰횸쪾탔볛룱ꆣ Friedmanꎨ1993ꎩ뗄쪵횤퇐뺿뷡맻뇭쏷ꎬ쫂잰릫뾪엻슶뚩떥늾붫붵뗍벯뫏뺺볛쫐뎡뗄탅쾢킧싊ꎨ틔풤웚뫏샭볛룱뗄욫닮뫢솿ꎩꎬ쟒볛닮뷏듳ꎻ쳡룟쇋솬탸뺺볛쫐뎡뗄벨킧ꎬ떫쯰몦쇋벯뫏뺺볛쫐뎡뗄벨킧ꎻ뛔붻틗솿뗄펰쿬늻좷뚨ꆣ쯻죏캪돶쿖헢훖쿖쿳뗄풭틲쫇퓚춸쏷뛈룟뗄벯뫏뺺볛쫐뎡ꎬ붻틗헟붫룼뛠뗘샻폃쒿잰뚩떥늾훐쿔쪾뗄쫐뎡탅쾢ꎬ뛸늻쫇릫쮾닣쏦뗄탅쾢ꆣFriedmanꎨ1993ꎩ뗄쪵횤퇐뺿뮹뇈뷏쇋솬탸뺺볛쫐뎡뫍벯뫏뺺볛쫐뎡뛔쫐뎡킧싊뫍붻틗솿뗄펰쿬ꎬ랢쿖벯뫏뺺볛쫐뎡뻟폐폫솬탸뺺볛쫐뎡춬퇹뗄탅쾢킧싊ꎬ엤훃킧싊튲벸뫵튻훂ꎬ솬탸붻틗뗄붻틗솿룼듳ꎬ뛸벯뫏뺺볛쫐뎡뗄짮뛈룼듳ꆣOehler 뫍Unserꎨ1998ꎩ럖컶쇋Friedmanꎨ1993ꎩ쳡돶뗄뗚튻뫍뗚죽훖쟩뿶ꎬ웤쪵횤늻횧돖Schwartzꎨ1993ꎩ뗄폐맘샭싛뷡싛ꎬ랢쿖ꎨ쫂뫳ꎩ춸쏷뛈뷏룟뗄벯뫏뺺볛쫐뎡뗄탅쾢킧싊짵훁뗍폚춸쏷뛈뷏뗍뗄벯뫏뺺볛쫐뎡ꎬ룟춸쏷뛈뗄벯뫏뺺볛쫐뎡뗄짮뛈뫍쇷뚯탔쿂붵ꎬ뛸쟒룟춸쏷뛈쫐뎡뗄쿞볛뚩떥볛룱폫벯뫏뺺볛좷뚨뗄볛룱뗄욽뻹욫닮튲듳폚춸쏷뛈뗍뗄쫐 6
훐킡웳튵냥뾪럅쪽벯뫏뺺볛킧맻쪵횤퇐뺿 뎡ꆣ 헔뫍퇮커ꎨ2003ꎩ뛔늻췪좫탅쾢쿂횤좯쫐뎡뾪엌볛룱뗄탎돉믺훆뷸탐쇋쫽샭럖컶ꎬ횤쏷퓚탅쾢늻뛔돆뗄잰쳡쿂ꎬ벯뫏뺺볛믺훆쓜릻폐킧뗄랢쿖횤좯닺뗄볛룱ꆣ쇭췢ꎬ춨맽뛔컒맺횤좯쫐뎡뾪엌볛룱뗄탎돉맽돌뷸탐럖컶ꎬ쯻쏇랢쿖럢뇕쪽벯뫏뺺볛붵뗍쇋볛룱뗄랢쿖킧싊ꎬ튲쿷죵쇋컒맺횤좯쫐뎡뗄풴엤훃릦쓜ꆣ샮탋탷ꎨ2002ꎩ뛔벯뫏뺺볛쫐뎡훐횤좯뾪엌볛룱뗄탎돉믺훆뷸탐쇋쫽샭럖컶ꎬퟅ훘퇐뺿쇋ퟔ뚯벯뫏뺺볛쫐뎡뫍튵뺭볍죋닎폫뗄벯뫏뺺볛쫐뎡훐횤좯뾪엌볛룱뗄탎돉맽돌ꎬ늢럖컶쇋솽룶쫐뎡닺짺뾪엌볛룱뗄탅쾢킧싊ꎬ죏캪튵뺭볃죋틲뛔돥듦믵뫍캬뮤볛룱컈뚨퓶볓쇋뾪엌볛룱뗄컞킧싊ꎬ떫튵뺭볃죋뗄붻틗뫍퓫짹뗄킭랽닮뿉쓜돥복튵뺭볍죋붻틗뛔횤좯뾪엌볛룱탅쾢킧싊뗄펰쿬ꆣ쇵뫍엊뗇ꎨ2002ꎩ샻폃뚩떥럖늼볙짨쒣탍뛔쿖탐벯뫏뺺볛훆뛈뗄쪵횤퇐뺿랢쿖ꎬ퓚럢뇕쪽벯뫏뺺볛쪱ꎬ믹폚볈뚨뗄즢뮧뚩떥럖늼ꎬ볒뿉틔쪵쿖웤믱틦닟싔ꎬ떫평폚즢뮧늻풸틢닎볓럢뇕쪽벯뫏뺺볛믲탨튪뷏듳뗄럧쿕늹뎥ꎬ맊떼훂볒닉좡믱틦닟싔쫕틦짵짙ꎬ쟒즢뮧뗄뷏짙닎폫떼훂닙ퟝ벯뫏뺺볛볛룱뗄돉놾럇뎣뗍솮ꎬ볒쟷쿲폚닉좡볛룱닙ퟝ닟싔ꆣ쯻쏇붨틩냑쒿잰컒맺횤좯쫐뎡뗄럢뇕쪽벯뫏뺺볛룄캪뾪럅쪽벯뫏뺺볛ꎬ틔듋쳡룟벯뫏뺺볛뗄춸쏷뛈ꎬ쳡룟붻틗헟뗄붻틗풸췻뫍탅쾢킧싊ꎬ늢럀횹죋캪닙ퟝ뾪엌볛룱ꆣ폫뾪럅쪽벯뫏뺺볛쿠엤쳗ꎬ뮹폐뇘튪틽죫벯뫏뺺볛쯦믺뷡쫸훆뛈믲벯뫏뺺볛ퟮ뫳뷗뛎늻뗃뎷떥훆뛈ꆣ뿗낮맺뗈ꎨ2002ꎩ죏캪퓚횤좯붻틗맽돌훐,뾪엌붻틗랽쪽쫇쳘뇰뗄,뛸폫솬탸붻틗랽쪽폐쯹늻춬ꆣ헢쫇틲캪퓚뺭샺 7
훐킡웳튵냥뾪럅쪽벯뫏뺺볛킧맻쪵횤퇐뺿 튻뛎럇붻틗쪱볤뫳,붻틗헟뛔폚볛룱쫇늻좷뚨뗄,헢뿉쓜떼훂볛룱뗄늨뚯틔벰늨뚯탔뗄쿂붵ꆣ쪵횤뇭쏷뾪엌붻틗랽쪽쫇뢴퓓뗄,뾪엌붻틗뗄벼쫵뫜맘볼,떫쎻폐ퟮ병뗄뾪엌붻틗랽쪽,솽훖뾪엌랽쪽룷폐폅쇓ꆣ ퟛ짏쯹쫶ꎬ뛔벯뫏뺺볛퓚믣ퟜ늻춬뗄붻틗탅쾢훐쫇폐킧뗄붻틗믺훆ꎬ톧헟쏇뗄맛뗣뇈뷏춳튻ꎬ뛔벯뫏뺺볛뗄폅뗣ퟜ뷡죧쿂ꎺ퓊탭붻틗쯹닎폫헟퓚뾪쫐잰쪱뛎뾪쪼쫤죫싲싴엌ꎬ듓뛸룄짆퓋ퟷ킧싊ꎻ복뗍퓧짏뾪쫐쪱듳솿싲싴엌쫤죫벰붻틗횴탐톶쾢뛔쾵춳퓬돉뗄뢺뫉ꎻ럀횹퓚돖탸붻틗쪱뛎뾪쪼쪱돶쿖쿔훸뗄볛룱늨뚯틔벰닙뿘ꎻ틗폚좷솢ퟮ병뾪쫐볛ꎻ뿉붫뛔엌쫽솿퓶훁ퟮ뛠ꎻ죝탭붻틗쯹닎폫헟뾪쫐잰붻틗뗈ꆣ 좻뛸뒫춳뗄럢뇕쪽벯뫏뺺볛튲뇭쿖돶튻킩쓑틔뿋럾뗄늻ퟣ횮뒦ꎬ쯼쏇돉캪틽죫뾪럅쪽벯뫏뺺볛뗄훷튪샭평ꆣ뗚튻ꎬ평폚벯뫏뺺볛맽돌쫇ꆰ럢뇕ꆱ뗄ꎬ춶헟헟볈늻쓜뾴떽웤쯻붻틗헟뗄캯췐ꎬ튲늻뿉쓜뾴떽횸쪾탔돉붻볛룱ꆣ퓚좱랦뛔막욱볛룱뗄뛀솢에뛏쪱ꎬ춶헟컞램뷏ힼ좷뗘풤닢뿉쓜돉붻볛룱ꆣ퓚헢훖쟩뿶쿂ꎬ춶헟캪쇋좷놣돉붻ꎬ웤닟싔뇘뚨쫇튪쳡붻뷏폅볛룱뗄캯췐ꎨ뷏룟뗄싲죫캯췐믲헟뷏뗍뗄싴돶캯췐ꎩꆣ럱퓲ꎬ춶헟쳡붻캯췐뗄쿞볛뻍믡뇤뗃쿠뛔뷏닮ꎬ떼훂캯췐돉붻뗄믺믡뷏킡ꆣ듓춶헟뷇뛈뾴ꎬ죧맻퓚솬탸뺺볛쪱뛎폐ퟣ릻쇷뚯탔살놣횤돉붻ꎬ퓲쎻폐뇘튪퓚벯뫏뺺볛쪱뛎뷸탐붻틗ꆣ볈폐뗄쪵횤퇐뺿뇭쏷ꎬ럢뇕쪽벯뫏뺺볛뗄킧맻늢늻쫇뫜뫃ꎬ춻돶뇭쿖퓚훐킡춶헟닎볓럢뇕쪽벯뫏뺺볛뗄럧쿕뷏듳ꎬ닎폫틢풸뷏뗍ꆣ뗚뛾ꎬ평폚쾵춳늻엻슶죎뫎탅쾢ꎬ쳘뇰쫇늻엻슶뚩떥싲싴뗄늻욽뫢탅쾢ꎬ틲듋ꎬ뇣샻쇋쫐뎡닙ퟝ탐캪ꎬ붵뗍쇋쫐뎡닙ퟝ헟뗄닙ퟝ돉놾ꆣ샽죧ꎬ닙ퟝ럢뇕쪽벯 8
훐킡웳튵냥뾪럅쪽벯뫏뺺볛킧맻쪵횤퇐뺿 뫏뺺볛뾪엌볛룱뗄돉놾뷏뗍ꎬ횻탨뷏짙뗄뷰뻍뿉틔닙ퟝ떥룶막욱뗄뾪엌볛룱ꎺ욽뻹살쮵ꎬ횻탨125췲풪뿉틔쪹떥룶막욱뗄뾪엌볛룱쿂뗸8%ꎬ횻탨161췲풪뿉틔쪹떥룶막욱뗄뾪엌볛룱짏짽8%ꎨ뻟쳥쫽뛮쯦붻틗믮풾돌뛈ꆢ막욱엌ퟓ듳킡뗈틲쯘뛸뇤뮯ꎩꎨ엊뗇뗈ꎬ2004ꎩꆣ뗚죽ꎬ퓚럢뇕쪽벯뫏뺺볛훆뛈쿂ꎬ벯뫏뺺볛쪱뛎뗄돉붻솿뇈뷏킡ꎬ춶헟컞램뫏샭에뛏횤좯뗄헦쪵볛횵ꎬ떣탄뾪엌볛룱놻뿘훆ꎬ룼볓쪹뗃춶헟늻풸틢닎폫벯뫏뺺볛ꆣ헢훖뛱탔톭뮷떼훂벯뫏뺺볛맽돌훐퓫짹붻틗퓶볓ꎬퟌ짺맽뛈랴펦ꎬ뷸뛸쪹뾪엌볛룱뗄폐킧탔듳듳쿂붵ꆣ 틲듋톧헟쏇죏캪럢뇕쪽벯뫏뺺볛붵뗍쇋볛룱뗄랢쿖킧싊ꎬ튲쿷죵쇋컒맺횤좯쫐뎡뗄풴엤훃릦쓜ꎬ뾪럅쪽벯뫏뺺볛좴폐훺폚뿋럾짏쫶늻ퟣꆣ좻뛸ꎬ쯦ퟅ뾪럅쪽벯뫏뺺볛훆뛈뗄췆돶ꎬ룹뻝쫐뎡뗄ힴ뿶ꎬ폐톧헟뛔듋뒴탂쳡돶훃틉ꎨ췵뾭ꎬ2004ꎩꆣ놾컄붫틔뾪럅쪽벯뫏뺺볛뗄쫐뎡붻틗쫽뻝캪믹뒡ꎬ듓샭싛뫍쪵횤솽룶뷇뛈퇐뺿짮쫐뾪럅쪽벯뫏뺺볛뗄킧맻ꆣ좫컄럖컥룶늿럖ꆣ뗚튻늿럖쫇틽퇔ꎬ볲쫶벯뫏뺺볛믺훆뫍틑폐뗄쿠맘퇐뺿뷡맻ꎻ뗚뛾늿럖훷튪뷩짜놾컄닉폃뗄쫽뻝퇹놾뫍횸뇪쒣탍ꎻ뗚죽늿럖쫇쪵횤쫽뻝뫍뷢쫍ꎻ뗚쯄늿럖룸돶믹폚쪵횤뗄솽룶샭싛췆싛ꎻ뗚컥늿럖쫇뷡싛뫍헾닟붨틩ꆣ 9
훐킡웳튵냥뾪럅쪽벯뫏뺺볛킧맻쪵횤퇐뺿 뛾ꆢ퇹놾뫍횸뇪톡좡 1. 퇹놾톡좡 놾컄뗄퇐뺿퇹놾럖캪죽ퟩꎬ쿪볻뢽뇭1ꎺ뗚튻ퟩ캪짮붻쯹훐킡웳튵냥뗚튻룶퓂탂짏쫐뗄24횻막욱ꎻ뗚뛾ퟩ캪짮붻쯹2004쓪7퓂쇷춨엌뷩폚2000췲ꆪꆪ3000췲ꎨ몬ꎩ뗄막욱ꎨ쳞돽*STꎩꎬ릲8횻ꎻ뗚죽ퟩ캪1뮦쫐2004쓪짏쫐늢쟒쇷춨엌킡폚뗈폚3000췲막뗄훐킡엌막ꎬ릲10횻ꆣ횮쯹틔틔쇷춨엌듳킡킡폚3000췲캪짏쿞ꎬ쫇캪쇋뺡뿉쓜붵뗍평폚쇷춨막맦쒣듳킡뛔쪵횤뷡싛뗄펰쿬ꆣ 2듓짮붻쯹훐탄쫽뻝뿢믱좡뗚튻ퟩ퇹놾짏쫐쫗죕뗄훰뇊캯췐ꆢ돉붻뫍막볛쫽뻝ꎬ룹뻝붻틗맦퓲ꎬ쎿룴10쏫룹뻝떱죕듋쪱볤뗣횮잰뗄캯췐쫽뻝듩뫏튻듎ꎬ쒣쓢뗃돶쎿횧막욱쎿죕뗄60룶뷒쪾볛ꆣ쇭췢ꎬ돩좡탂냋막2004쓪ퟔ6퓂25죕웰떽7퓂25죕뗄캯췐ꆢ돉붻뫍막볛쫽뻝ꎬ늢볆쯣뷒쪾볛룱ꎻ뛔폚뗚뛾ퟩ퇹놾ꎬ듓쫽뻝뿢훐돩좡2004쓪7퓂26죕떽200434쓪7퓂30죕뗄쯹폐캯췐ꆢ돉붻뫍막볛쫽뻝ꎻ뛔뗚죽ퟩ퇹놾ꎬ돩좡뾪엌쫗죕춨맽짮붻쯹뗄캯췐뫍돉붻쫽뻝ꎬ벰웤막볛쫽뻝ꆣ 1 횮쯹틔톡퓱짏붻쯹쫽뻝ퟷ캪퇹놾ꎬ쫇평폚짮붻쯹뛠쓪캴랢탐탂막ꎬ2000쓪횮잰뗄쫽뻝틑뺭폫쿖ힴ늻럻ꆣ쇭췢톡퓱쇷춨엌킡폚뗈폚3000췲뗄막욱ꎬ쫇폫훐킡냥쇷춨엌쿠뛔펦ꎬ횼퓚쳞돽평폚쇷춨엌늻춬뛸뛔뷡맻퓬돉뗄펰쿬ꆣ 2 본폚훐탄쫽뻝뿢훐뗄캯췐쫽뻝캪쫐뎡쯹폐쫽뻝ꎬ룹뻝붻틗맦퓲ꎬ늢럇좫늿폐킧ꎬ죧뎬맽헇뗸럹뗄캯췐ꎬ훘뢴캯췐뗈ꎬ틲듋ꎬ탨튪뛔컞킧쫽뻝뷸탐쳞돽ꆣ놾컄훐쯹닉폃뗄캯췐쫽뻝ꎬ뻹캪뒦샭뫳뗄폐킧쫽뻝ꎨ뛔폚뾪럅쪽벯뫏뺺볛9:20-9:25뗄뎷떥쫽뻝ꎬ내헕붻틗맦퓲ꎬ튲펦쫓캪컞킧쫽뻝ꎬ떫뾼싇튲쫇놾컄뾼닩뗄뛔쿳ꎬ폨틔놣쇴ꎩꆣ 3 톡퓱듋쪱뛎ꎬ쫇평폚탂막짏쫐뫍탂맦퓲뗄닉폃ꎬ쫐뎡돵웚뿉쓜폐뛠폠틲쯘룉죅ꎬ틲듋ꎬ닉폃탂냋막짏쫐튻룶퓂뫳뗄쫽뻝뷸탐럖컶ꎬ룼럻뫏쫐뎡컈뚨쪱뗄ힴ뿶ꆣ 4 놾컄쪵볊닉폃뗄쫇003***뗄쫽뻝ꎬ믹폚솽룶쫐뎡춶헟탐캪튻훂뗄볙짨ꎬ뾼싇떽컄훐뷶폃떽뇈싊ꎬ듋쫽뻝뻟폐듺뇭탔ꆣ 10
훐킡웳튵냥뾪럅쪽벯뫏뺺볛킧맻쪵횤퇐뺿 2. 횸뇪톡좡 5놾컄틔듋캪틀뻝ꎬ톡좡틔쿂솽듳샠횸뇪ꎬ뛔뾪럅쪽벯뫏뺺볛뗄킧맻뷸탐쪵횤럖컶: ꎨ1ꎩ 춶헟닎폫틢풸횸뇪 a. 벯뫏뺺볛캯췐뇊쫽뇈싊H Hꎽ벯뫏뺺볛캯췐뇊쫽/떱죕ퟜ캯췐뇊쫽 ꎨ2ꎭ1ꎩ 듋횸뇪뫢솿벯뫏뺺볛뷗뛎캯췐뇊쫽햼좫쳬뗄뇈싊ꎬ웤횵풽듳쮵쏷뾪엌뷗뛎춶헟닎폫붻틗뗄틢풸풽잿ꆣ뿉룹뻝캯췐랽쿲ꎬ붫헢룶횸뇪뷸튻늽쾸럖캪ꆰ싲싴뎷ꆱ죽샠ꆣ b. 벯뫏뺺볛돉붻솿뇈싊V Vꎽ벯뫏뺺볛돉붻솿/떱죕ퟜ돉붻솿 ꎨ2ꎭ2ꎩ 듋횸뇪뫢솿벯뫏뺺볛뷗뛎돉붻솿햼좫쳬뗄뇈싊ꎬ웤횵풽듳쮵쏷뾪엌뷗뛎돉붻솿쿠뛔풽뛠ꎬ춶헟닎폫풽믽벫ꆣ 짏쫶솽룶횸뇪뿉틔뫢솿뾪럅쪽벯뫏뺺볛뷗뛎뗄쇷뚯탔ꆣ c. 벯뫏뺺볛뚩떥듳킡뇈싊S Sꎽ캯췐솿킡폚뗈폚1000뗄뚩떥쫽솿/듋웚볤뗄ퟜ캯췐떥쫽 ꎨ2ꎭ3ꎩ 6듋횸뇪뫢솿닎폫벯뫏뺺볛뷗뛎춶헟뗄샠탍ꎬ웤횵풽듳ꎬ쮵쏷훐킡춶헟닎폫믽벫탔풽룟ꆣ뿉뷸튻늽쾸럖캪싲싴떥솽샠ꆣ ꎨ2ꎩ 쫐뎡킧싊횸뇪 5 튻냣움볛붻틗훆뛈짨볆쒿뇪훷튪폐쯄룶랽쏦ꎺ쇷뚯탔ꆢ폐킧탔ꆢ컈뚨탔틔벰춸쏷뛈ꆣ놾컄룹뻝톧헟쏇뗄쿠맘퇐뺿ꎬ룹뻝닎폫틢풸뫍쫐뎡킧싊릹붨8룶횸뇪ꎬ뛔듋뷸탐움볛ꆣ쇭췢ꎬ뾪럅쪽벯뫏뺺볛뷏럢뇕쪽벯뫏뺺볛뗄춸쏷뛈쿔좻뷏룟ꎬ쯹틔캴폨싛횤ꆣ 6 놾컄죏캪떥뇊캯췐솿킡폚뗈폚1000막뗄캯췐뛠캪훐킡춶헟ꎬ틲캪룹뻝쫐횵엤쫛뗄풭퓲ꎬ훐킡춶헟퓚탂막랢탐쪱튻냣ퟮ뛠훐튻룶잩ꎬ벴1000막ꆣ 11
훐킡웳튵냥뾪럅쪽벯뫏뺺볛킧맻쪵횤퇐뺿 a. 뾪엌뚨볛킧싊P PꎽABS(뾪엌볛ꎭ떱죕뻹볛ꎩ/떱죕뻹볛 ꎨ2ꎭ4ꎩ 듋횸뇪뫢솿뾪엌볛폫떱죕뻹볛뻸뛔닮뻠폫룃죕뻹볛뗄뇈싊ꎬ웤횵풽킡ꎬ뇭쏷뾪엌볛풽뷓뷼쫐뎡떱죕욽뻹볛룱ꎬ웤횸떼ퟷ폃풽듳ꎬ뾪엌볛뚨볛풽뫏샭ꆣ듋횸뇪폃틔뇈뷏늻춬뺺볛랽쪽뗄뚨볛횱맛킧싊ꎬ쫇쫐뎡폐킧탔뗄횸뇪횮튻ꆣ 7b. 벯뫏뺺볛뚩떥볛닮D 2×ꎨ싴뚩떥욽뻹볛룱ꎭ싲뚩떥욽뻹볛룱ꎩDꎽ ꎨ2ꎭ5ꎩ ꎨ싴뚩떥욽뻹볛룱ꎫ싲뚩떥욽뻹볛룱ꎩ듋횸뇪뫢솿뾪엌벯뫏뺺볛뷗뛎춶헟뗄럧쿕늹뎥돉놾ꎬ뚩떥닮볛풽킡ꎬ쮵쏷쫐뎡뛔볛룱뗄죏춬뛈풽룟ꆣ c. 벯뫏뺺볛캯췐볛룱뇪ힼ닮PSTD 2ꎨ캯췐볛룱−캯췐뻹볛ꎩ∑PSTD= ꎨ2ꎭ6ꎩ n듋횸뇪럖뇰뛔캯췐싲볛뫍싴볛뷸탐볆쯣ꎬ뿉틔랴펳캯췐볛룱뗄럖즢돌뛈ꎬ캯췐볛룱풽벯훐ꎬPSTD횵풽킡ꎬ쮵쏷춶헟뛔캯췐볛룱뗄죏춬풽춳튻ꆣ 8d. 뾪엌볛뛔쫽쫕틦싊랽닮OSTD 2ꎨlnꎨ뾪엌볛/ퟲ쫕엌ꎩ−죕뻹쫕틦싊ꎩ∑OSTD= ꎨ2ꎭ7ꎩ n듋횸뇪랴펳뾪엌볛룱쿠뛔폚잰죕쫕엌볛룱뇤뚯뗄컈뚨탔ꎬOSTD횵풽킡ꎬ컈뚨탔풽룟ꆣ 짏쫶죽룶횸뇪듓늻춬닠쏦뫢솿벯뫏뺺볛뗄컈뚨탔ꆣ 9e. 뾪럅쪽벯뫏뺺볛볛룱뇤뚯듎쫽N 뛔폚뾪럅쪽벯뫏뺺볛뷗뛎뾪엌뷒쪾볛뗄쎿듎볛룱뇤뚯ꎬ볆쫽튻듎ꎬ늢뛔짏헇뫍쿂뗸럖뇰볆쫽ꆣ듋횸뇪뫢솿뾪럅쪽벯뫏뺺볛뷗뛎볛룱뇤뚯쟷쫆ꆣ뇤뚯듎쫽풽뛠ꎬ쮵쏷듋뷗뛎볛룱풽늻컈뚨ꎬ춬쿲볛룱뇤뚯듎쫽풽뛠ꎬ쮵쏷쫐뎡떥쿲탔풽잿ꎻ짏헇듎쫽뫍쿂뗸듎쫽뗄닮횵풽킡ꎬ쮵쏷듋뷗뛎볛룱뇤뚯풽뻹뫢ꆣ 7 놾컄캴닉폃쫕엌볛캪럖쒸ꎬ쫇평폚뾼싇떽막욱짏쫐쫗죕쎻폐잰쫕엌볛ꆣ퓚쫐뎡컈뚨뗄쟩뿶쿂ꎬ싲싴볛뗄뻹횵펦폫쫕엌볛쿠럂ꆣ 8 룹뻝돂놣뮪ꎨ2001ꎩ싛컄췆뛏ꆣ 9 듋횸뇪뷶뛔뾪럅쪽벯뫏뺺볛폐킧 12
훐킡웳튵냥뾪럅쪽벯뫏뺺볛킧맻쪵횤퇐뺿 죽ꆢ쪵횤폫럖컶 1. 짮쫐퇹놾짏쫐쫗죕쫐뎡ힴ뿶 룹뻝캯췐뇭쓚폐킧캯췐ꎬ볆쯣뗃돶퇹놾뾪럅쪽벯뫏뺺볛뗄탩쓢뾪엌볛룱ꎬ춼3쇐쪾쇋막볛뇤뚯쟷쫆ꎬ뿉틔뾴돶ꎬ훐킡웳튵냥탂짏쫐뗄막욱퓚뾪엌뷗뛎ꎬ탩쓢볛룱뻹쿲짏퓋탐ꆣ 40200120023520032004200520063020072008252009201020112012202013201415201520162017201810201920205202120221357911315171921232527293133537394143454749515355759쪱볤20232024 춼3 훐킡냥24횧막욱짏쫐쫗죕벯뫏뺺볛뷗뛎탩쓢볛ퟟ쫆춼 13볛룱
훐킡웳튵냥뾪럅쪽벯뫏뺺볛킧맻쪵횤퇐뺿 춼4 훐킡냥막욱짏쫐쫗죕뾪럅쪽벯뫏뺺볛뷗뛎탩쓢뷒쪾볛늨뚯춼 춼4쇐쪾쇋쿠뛔폚쎿죕뗚튻룶볛룱뗄뇤뚯뇈싊ꎬ뿉틔뾴돶ꎬ돽룶뇰막욱췢ꎬ뾪엌잰5럖훓뫍뾪엌뫳5럖훓막볛뇤뚯럹뛈믹놾쿠춬ꆣ 2. 짏쫐쫗죕벯뫏뺺볛킧싊뇈뷏 ꎨ1ꎩ 짮뮦뇈뷏 룹뻝뗚뛾늿럖쇐쪾뗄횸뇪ꎬ쫗쿈뛔뗚튻ퟩ퇹놾훐짏쫐쫗죕뗄쫽뻝ꎬ폫뗚뛾ퟩ퇹놾뗄쫽뻝뷸탐럖컶ꎬ볆쯣늢믣ퟜ뗃뇭1ꎬ폃틔뇈뷏뾪럅쪽벯뫏뺺볛뫍럢뇕쪽벯뫏뺺볛뗄킧싊: 14
훐킡웳튵냥뾪럅쪽벯뫏뺺볛킧맻쪵횤퇐뺿 10뇭1 짮뮦벯뫏뺺볛킧싊뇈뷏 11 짮? 짏몣 킧맻 P % % 늻쿔훸 V %%쿔훸쳡룟 12싲 % % ----- H 싴 % % 늻쿔훸 13뎷 % %% 쿔훸쳡룟 싲 % % ----- S 싴 % % 늻쿔훸 뎷 % % 쿔훸붵뗍 % % PSTDꎨ싴ꎩ 쿔훸붵뗍 % D ----------듓짏뇭컒쏇뾴돶ꎬ폫뮦쫐뒫춳뾪엌랽쪽쿠뇈ꎬ뾪럅쪽벯뫏뺺볛뗄뾪엌볛뚨볛킧싊싔폐쳡룟ꎻ돉붻솿뷏뮦쫐퇹놾쳡룟%ꎬ늢쟒풶풶14룟폚럢뇕쪽벯뫏뺺볛쟸볤뗄욽뻹돉붻솿ꎨ뮦쫐캪%ꎩꎻ쇭췢뎷떥뇊쫽뇈샽퓶볓뷏뛠ꎻ훐킡춶헟뗄싲떥뇈샽퓶볓%ꎬ뎷떥뇈샽복15짙%ꎻ벯뫏뺺볛뷗뛎싴캯췐볛뇤뚯탔듳듳붵뗍ꎻ욽뻹캯췐볛닮쿠뛔짏몣쫐뎡듳듳붵뗍ꎨ뮦쫐뻹횵캪%ꎩꎻ뾪엌쫐뎡욽뻹볛닮캪%ꎬ풶풶뗍폚뒫춳쒣쪽ꎨ뮦쫐캪%ꎩꆣ쇭췢훐킡춶헟뗄닎폫믽벫탔쿠뛔짏몣쫐뎡폐쯹쳡룟ꆣ 춼5쫇벯뫏뺺볛뷗뛎뫍뾪엌뫳15럖훓쓚ꎬ캯췐뇊쫽쯦쪱볤췆틆뛸뇤뚯뗄냙럖뇈샽춼ꎬ뫡ퟸ뇪캪9:25ꎭ9:40쎿럖훓볆쫽뗄쪱볤뗣ꎬ웤훐10캪뾪엌쪱볤ꎨ9:25ꎩꎬ15캪솬탸뺺볛뾪쪼쪱볤ꎨ9:30ꎩꆣ 10 컄훐폃떽뗄쫽뻝ꎬ뛔폚뛠룶퇹놾ꎬ룸돶뗄횵뻹캪뻹횵ꆣ 112 뛔솽ퟩ뇈싊뷸탐χ볬퇩ꎬ퓚αꎽ쮮욽쿂ꎬ에뛏뻹횵닮뇰뗄쿔훸탔ꆣ 12 룹뻝쿖탐쫐횵엤쫛맦뚨ꎬ뮦쫐탂막짏쫐ꎬ춶헟뿉틔뛔ꆮ3ꆯퟖ춷뗄막욱뿉틔춨맽짮붻쯹뷸탐캯췐싴돶뫍뎷떥ꎬ늻쓜뷸탐싲죫ꎬ떫쫐뎡닎폫헟죔폐싲죫탐캪ꎬ훐탄쫽뻝뿢뛔듋뷸탐쇋볇슼ꆣ듋뒦룸폨볆쯣ꎬ평폚뾼싇뗄쫇폫ퟔ벺뗄뇈싊ꎬ늢캴펰쿬쿂떥솿뗄뷡싛ꎬ떫뫍짮쫐뗄뇈뷏컞틢틥ꆣ 13 듋삸캪쎿죕9ꎺ20ꆪ9ꎺ25뗄뎷떥ꎬ퓚뾪럅쪽벯뫏뺺볛뷗뛎쾵춳늻폨뷓쫜ꆣ 14 컄훐뗄뮦쫐쫽뻝죧캴쳘뇰뇪힢ꎬ뻹살풴폚짏붻쯹퇐뺿놨룦ꆶ뮦쫐벯뫏뺺볛붻틗탐캪퇐뺿ꆷꆣ 15 평폚뾪엌쫗죕뗄싴떥뻹캪쫐횵엤쫛뗄막욱ꎬ뷸탐붻틗뗄춶헟늢럇헦헽춶듋막욱ꎬ웤싴떥뛔뫢솿춶헟샠탍늻뻟놸듺뇭탔ꆣ 15
훐킡웳튵냥뾪럅쪽벯뫏뺺볛킧맻쪵횤퇐뺿 121086짏몣짮?42012345678910111213141516171819202122232425쪱볤 춼5 9:15ꎭ9:40쎿럖훓캯췐뇊쫽ꎨ냙럖뇈샽럖늼ꎩ 듓춼훐뿉틔뾴돶ꎬ퓚벯뫏뺺볛뷗뛎ꎬ뾪럅쪽벯뫏뺺볛뗄캯췐뇊쫽ꎬ듓9:16뾪쪼튻횱떽9:25뾪엌횮잰ꎬ쯦볛룱뗄엊짽컈늽퓶볓ꎻ뛸뛔폚럢뇕쪽벯뫏뺺볛뷗뛎ꎬ평폚춶헟뛔쫐뎡뾪엌볛룱탅쾢늢늻쇋뷢ꎬ웤캯췐믽벫탔늢늻룟ꎬ캯췐뇊쫽튻횱돊쿖뮺싽복짙뗄ힴ뿶ꆣ9:25뫳ꎬ평폚훐킡엌막욱뗄뾪엌볛벴쪱뷒쪾ꎬ쫐뎡뛔듋볛룱뗄랴펦뇈뷏욽컈ꎬ캯췐뇊쫽뷶쫇퓚솬탸뺺볛잰닅돶쿖킡럹쿂붵ꎻ뛸퓚럢뇕쪽벯뫏뺺볛쒣쪽쿂ꎬ평폚뛔뾪엌볛뚨볛죏쪶뗄닮틬ꎬ춶헟솢뿌뛔듋볛룱뷸탐벤쇒뗄랴펦ꎬ듙쪹캯췐뇊쫽톸쯙짏짽ꎬ횮뫳퓚솬탸뺺볛잰폖돊쿖복짙뗄쟷쫆ꆣ쇭췢ꎬ퓚솬탸뺺볛뾪쪼뫳ꎬ평폚룼맣랺뗄춶헟닎폫ꎬ짮뮦솽쫐뗄캯췐쫽솿톸쯙엊짽ꎬ듓춼5훐뿉틔뾴돶ꎬ짮쫐뷏횮뮦쫐쳡잰튻럖훓듯떽럥횵ꎬ횮뫳뮺싽쿂붵늢쟷폚욽뮺ꎬ컒쏇죏캪헢튲쫇평폚쪵쪩뾪럅쪽벯뫏뺺볛ꎬ쪹쫐뎡뷏퓧뗄뛔볛룱뷸탐쇋랴펦ꎬ뷸뛸퓚솬탸뺺볛뷗뛎ꎬ쫐뎡룼뿬뗄쟷폚뻹뫢ꆣ틲듋ꎬ퓚틽죫뾪럅쪽벯뫏뺺볛뫳ꎬ춶헟뿉틔틀 16냙럖뇈
훐킡웳튵냥뾪럅쪽벯뫏뺺볛킧맻쪵횤퇐뺿 뻝뾪엌닎뾼볛룱ꎬ룼볓뻹뫢솬탸뗄뷸탐뚩떥캯췐ꆣ ꎨ2ꎩ 짮쫐뇈뷏 내헕짏쫐죕웚ꎬ뇭2뛔24횻훐킡엌짏쫐쫗죕뗄룷쿮횸뇪뷸탐럖샠믣ퟜꎬ폃틔럖컶쯦쪱볤췆틆뾪럅쪽벯뫏뺺볛뗄퓋탐킧맻: 뇭2 짮쫐퇹놾짏쫐쫗죕횸뇪뇭 죕웚 짏쫐쫽솿 P V H S D STDꎨSꎩN 6% 2004-6-25 8 % %%%% 2004-6-29 2 % %%%%% 19 2004-7-05 3 % %%%%% 21 2004-7-08 3 % %%%%% 22 8% 2004-7-13 3 % %%%% 2004-7-15 2 % %%%%% 16 2004-7-21 3 % %%%%% 20 춨맽짏뇭컒쏇랢쿖ꎬ춶헟퓚뾪럅쪽벯뫏뺺볛뷗뛎뗄싲싴탐캪늢캴랢짺맽뛠뗄뇤뮯ꎬ뛸폫듋춬쪱ꎬ뾪럅쪽벯뫏뺺볛쯹뚨돶뗄뾪엌볛룱ꎬ웤뚨볛킧싊헽퓚훰늽뗄쳡룟ꆣ틲듋ꎬ뾪럅쪽벯뫏뺺볛헽캪춶헟쯹쫬쾤뫍뷓쓉ꎬ늢뛔뾪엌볛룱뗄좷뚨폐믽벫ퟷ폃ꆣ 3ꎮ 탂냋막뾪럅쪽벯뫏뺺볛쫗퓂뇭쿖 룹뻝뗚뛾늿럖쇐쪾뗄횸뇪ꎬ헫뛔ꆮ탂냋막ꆯ짏쫐쫗퓂훰죕뗄쫽뻝뷸탐럖컶ꎬ볆쯣늢믣ퟜ뗃뇭3ꎬ폃틔럖컶뾪럅쪽벯뫏뺺볛뗄쫐뎡퓋탐ힴ뿶: 퓚듋웚볤ꎬ릲폐폐킧캯췐194,466뇊ꎬ햼ퟜ캯췐뇊쫽뗄%ꎬ룟폚죕뻹캯췐쮮욽ꎻ릲돉붻33,952,696막ꎬ햼ퟜ돉붻솿뗄%ꎬ룟폚뒫춳벯뫏뺺볛쟸볤뗄욽뻹돉붻솿ꆣ쇭췢ꎬ듓뇭3뿉틔뾴돶ꎬ뾪럅쪽벯 17
훐킡웳튵냥뾪럅쪽벯뫏뺺볛킧맻쪵횤퇐뺿 뫏뺺볛뗄뾪엌뚨볛킧싊훰붥쳡룟ꎬ캯췐볛닮돽쫗죕췢믹놾놣돖컈뚨ꎬ캯췐뇊쫽뇈샽뫍돉붻뇈샽튲죕쟷컈뚨ꎬ볛룱뇤뚯듎쫽훰붥붵뗍늢쟷폚컈뚨ꆣ틲듋ꎬ뿉틔죏캪ꎬ뺭맽튻룶퓂뗄쫐뎡퓋탐ꎬ춶헟뛔탂맦퓲훰붥샭뷢ꎬ퓚듋뷗뛎뗄춶믘맩샭탔ꆣ 18
훐킡웳튵냥뾪럅쪽벯뫏뺺볛킧맻쪵횤퇐뺿 뇭3 탂냋막짏쫐쫗퓂횸뇪뇭 PSTDH 1617죕웚 퇹놾쫽P V N D 1819싲 싴 싲 뎷1뎷2싴 ퟜ 2004-6-25 8 %%%% %%%%%%2004-6-28 8 %%%% %%%%%%2004-6-29 8 %%%% %%%%%%2004-6-30 8 %%%% %%%%%%2004-7-1 5 %%%% %%%%%%2004-7-2 8 %%%% %%%%%%2004-7-5 8 %%%% %%%%%%2004-7-6 7 %%%% %%%%%%2004-7-7 8 %%%% %%%%%%2004-7-8 7 %%%% %%%%%%2004-7-9 7 %%%% %%%%%%2004-7-12 8 %%%% %%%%%%2004-7-13 8 %%%% %%%%%%2004-7-14 8 %%%% %%%%%%2004-7-15 6 %%%% %%%%%%2004-7-16 7 %%%% %%%%%%2004-7-19 8 %%%% %%%%%%2004-7-20 8 %%%% %%%%%%2004-7-21 8 %%%% %%%%%%2004-7-22 8 %%%% %%%%%%2004-7-23 8 %%%% %%%%%% 16 뾼싇횤좯춣없떱죕늻뷸탐뾪럅쪽벯뫏뺺볛ꎬ퓚듋쳞돽ꆣ 17 짏몣쫐뎡뾪엌벯뫏뺺볛뗄쫐뎡욽뻹닮횵캪%ꎬ듳늿럖막욱듳폚4%ꎨ쫽뻝살풴ꎺ짏붻쯹퇐뺿놨룦ꆶ뮦쫐벯뫏뺺볛붻틗탐캪쪵횤퇐뺿ꆷꆣ 18 9:20-9:25뗄뎷떥 19 뿛돽컞킧뎷떥ꎬ벴늻냼몬9:20-9:25뗄뎷떥ꆣ 19
훐킡웳튵냥뾪럅쪽벯뫏뺺볛킧맻쪵횤퇐뺿 ퟜ헇뗸붻틗죕 춼6 탂냋막뾪럅쪽벯뫏뺺볛볛룱뇤뚯듎쫽 춼6쫇ꆰ탂냋막ꆱ뾪엌벯뫏뺺볛볛룱뇤뚯듎쫽뫍뇤뚯랽쿲뗄쪱볤탲쇐쪾틢춼ꆣ틀춼6쯹쪾ꎬ쯦ퟅ쪱볤뗄췆틆ꎬ뾪럅쪽벯뫏뺺볛웚볤탩쓢뷒쪾볛뗄헇뗸듎쫽ꎬ듓웰돵뗄뷏듳닮틬훰붥맽뛈떽쟷폚튻훂ꎬ헢쮵쏷퓚뾪엌뷗뛎ꎬ막볛틑듓웚돵뗄떥쿲뇤뚯뇤캪쮫쿲늨뚯ꆣ 쇭췢ꎬ듓짏쫶쫽뻝훐뿉틔뾴돶ꎬ뾪럅쪽벯뫏뺺볛뮹듦퓚죧쿂컊쳢ꆣ쫗쿈ꎬ뾪럅쪽벯뫏뺺볛뷗뛎ꎬ듦퓚뎷떥뇈샽퓶룟뗄쟩뿶ꆣ쇭췢ꎬ쎿죕9:20ꎭ9:25뗄컞킧뎷떥뇈샽쿠뛔뷏룟ꎬ튲쮵쏷쫐뎡닎폫헟뛔훆뛈뗄샭뷢뮹늻돤럖ꎬ죔탨잿뮯탻뒫솦뛈ꎬ볓잿춶헟뷌폽ꆣퟮ뫳ꎬ쯦ퟅ쪱볤뗄췆틆ꎬ벯뫏뺺볛뷗뛎뗄돉붻솿뇈싊뫍캯췐뇊쫽뇈샽뻹돶쿖쿂붵ꎬ웤ퟮ훕킧맻뮹탨뷸탐뷏뎤웚뗄쫐뎡볬퇩ꆣ 4ꎮ 탂냋막폫짮쫐훐킡엌막욱뇈뷏 룹뻝횸뇪뛔뗚튻폫뗚뛾ퟩ퇹놾뷸탐볆쯣ꎬ뗃뇭4ꎺ 20
훐킡웳튵냥뾪럅쪽벯뫏뺺볛킧맻쪵횤퇐뺿 뇭4 탂냋막폫짮쫐훐킡엌벯뫏뺺볛횸뇪뇈뷏뇭 탂냋막 킡엌막 킧맻 P % % 쿔훸퓶볓 V %%쿔훸복짙 싲 % % 쿔훸복짙 싴 % % 쿔훸복짙 H 뎷 %%쿔훸복짙 ퟜ % % 쿔훸복짙 싲 %%늻쿔훸 싴 % % 쿔훸퓶볓 S 뎷 %%쿔훸퓶볓 ퟜ% % 쿔훸퓶볓 싲 %%쿔훸퓶볓 PSTD 싴 % % 쿔훸퓶볓 OSTD 쿔훸복짙 D % % 쿔훸복짙 뷡뫏뇭1뫍뇭2ꎬ듓뇭4훐뿉틔뾴돶ꎬ쯦ퟅ훐킡춶헟뗄뇈샽퓶뛠ꎬ뾪럅쪽벯뫏뺺볛랽쪽컞싛듓돉붻솿뮹쫇캯췐뇊쫽뚼뗍폚짮쫐뗄킡엌막뗄뇈싊ꎬ쮵쏷춶헟뛔뾪럅쪽벯뫏뺺볛뗄닎폫죈쟩틑뺭늻벰듋훆뛈췆탐횮돵ꎻ쇭췢ꎬ폫춶헟캯췐볛뗄랽닮뷏룟춬쪱돶쿖뗄쫇싲싴볛닮쿠뛔뷏뗍ꎬ볓횮뾪엌볛쫕틦싊랽닮뷏뗍ꎬ죔좻뿉틔죏캪뾪럅쪽벯뫏뺺볛퓚뚨볛킧싊짏폐폅쫆ꆣ 21
훐킡웳튵냥뾪럅쪽벯뫏뺺볛킧맻쪵횤퇐뺿 쯄ꆢ솽룶췆싛 1. 뾪엌닎뾼볛캪춶헟닎폫뾪럅쪽벯뫏뺺볛쳡릩룼뛠틀뻝 퓚벯뫏뺺볛뷗뛎ꎬ춶헟쿂떥춨뎣폐죧쿂죽훖샠탍ꎺ웤튻ꎬ뎬룟볛싲뫍뎬뗍볛싴ꎬ퓚짏쫐쫗죕뎣볻캪풪싴ꎬ100풪싲ꎬ헽뎣붻틗죕캪뗸춣싴ꎬ헇춣싲ꎬ헢킩춶헟쫇벱폚돉붻ꎬ쯹틔뷸탐짏쫶캯췐ꎬ쿠떱폚쫐볛캯췐ꎻ웤뛾ꎬ뎬룟볛싴뫍뎬뗍볛싲ꎬ헢킩춶헟쫇룹뻝쫐뎡맦퓲ꎬ뷏퓧뗄뷸탐맒떥ꎬ튻쫇웚췻퓚벯뫏뺺볛뷗뛎돶쿖맽뛈랴펦뗄볛룱ꎬ쓜릻룟캻싴돶믲뗍캻싲죫쳗샻ꎬ뛾쫇뷏퓧뷸탐캯췐ꎬ룹뻝붻틗맦퓲훐쪱볤폅쿈풭퓲ꎬ뿉틔퓚솬탸뺺볛뷗뛎퓚듋볛캻짏폅쿈붻틗ꎻ웤죽쫇돽짏쫶솽샠춶헟틔췢뗄춶헟ꎬ벴튻냣뗄쿞볛캯췐춶헟ꎬ놾뷚쳖싛뗄춶헟쳘횸듋샠ꆣ ꎨ1ꎩ 짏쫐쫗죕 춨뎣쟩뿶쿂ꎬ듓캯췐볛룱럖늼짏살붲ꎬ폐닎뾼볛룱뗄럖늼믡룼벯훐킩ꎬ춼7탩쿟쫇솽훖벯뫏뺺볛랽쪽뗄캯췐솿ꆢ캯췐볛쯦쪱볤뗄샭싛럖늼ꎬ쪵쿟캪ퟜ뗄캯췐뗄볛룱뫍쫽솿럖늼ꆣ뛔폚탂랢탐짏쫐뗄막욱ꎬ평폚쎻폐뾪엌볛ퟷ캪닎뾼ꎬ춶헟퓚럢뇕쪽벯뫏뺺볛뷗뛎ꎬ믡룹뻝풤쿈뗄맀볆ꎬ퓚튻룶뷏듳볛룱쟸볤뷸탐캯췐ꎬ죧춼7ꎨꋱꎩ쯹쪾ꆣ퓚뾪럅쪽벯뫏뺺볛뷗뛎ꎬ뗚튻룶쪱볤뛎뗄캯췐볛룱쟸볤뷏듳ꎬ횮뫳평폚춶헟폐쇋닎뾼볛룱ꎬ뿉틔틀뻝닎뾼볛룱뷸탐캯췐ꎬ죧춼7ꎨꋲꎩ쯹쪾ꆣ 22
훐킡웳튵냥뾪럅쪽벯뫏뺺볛킧맻쪵횤퇐뺿 P P뾪엌닎뾼볛 0 tꎬv0tꎬvꎨꋱꎩꎨꋲꎩ 춼7 막욱짏쫐쫗죕솽훖벯뫏뺺볛랽쪽캯췐볛솿쪾틢춼 ꎨ2ꎩ 럇짏쫐쫗죕 퓚럇짏쫐쫗죕ꎬ춶헟뿉틔룹뻝ퟲ쫕엌볛닎폫뾪엌벯뫏뺺볛ꎬ웤캯췐떥볛솿뗄럖늼뷏캪뻹퓈ꎻ뛔폚뾪럅쪽벯뫏뺺볛ꎬ춶헟퓚뗚튻쪱뛎룹뻝쫕엌볛뷸탐캯췐ꎬ퓚웤폠쪱뛎ꎬ뻹뿉룹뻝뾪엌닎뾼볛룱ꎬ캧죆듋볛룱뗄뇤뮯뷸탐캯췐ꆣ샭싛쪾틢춼죧춼8쯹쪾ꎺ P Pퟲ쫕엌볛 뾪엌닎뾼볛 0 t 0t ꎨꋱꎩꎨꋲꎩ 춼8 막욱럇짏쫐쫗죕솽훖벯뫏뺺볛랽쪽캯췐볛솿쪾틢춼 ꎨ3ꎩ 쪵횤볬퇩 춼9뫍춼10럖뇰쇐쪾쇋002001뫍600641짏쫐쫗죕뗄훰럖훓싴캯췐룷볛캻뗄캯췐떥쫽ꎬ듓춼훐뿉틔뾴돶ꎬ002001뗄캯췐럥횵쯦ퟅ닎뾼볛퓚늻뛏뇤뚯ꎬ뛸600641뗄캯췐캴뇭쿖돶쏷쿔뗄럥횵ꎬ늢쟒10룶쪱볤쟸볤뗄캯췐럖늼벫캪쿠쯆ꆣ틲듋ꎬ뛔짏컄뗄췆싛룸폨쪵횤횧돖ꆣ 23
훐킡웳튵냥뾪럅쪽벯뫏뺺볛킧맻쪵횤퇐뺿 2001501234510067891050020212223242526272829303132333435 춼9 002001짏쫐쫗죕럖훓싴캯췐볛솿럖늼춼 2520123154567108910501819202122232425262728293031323334 춼10 600410짏쫐쫗죕럖훓싴캯췐볛솿럖늼춼 2. 뾪럅쪽벯뫏뺺볛폐샻폚복짙솬탸뺺볛뗄볛룱늨뚯 ꎨ1ꎩ 샭싛럖컶 퓚택쫐웚볤ꎬ쫐뎡탅쾢뿉쓜랢짺쇋뇤뚯ꎬ막욱뗄뚨볛튲펦벰쪱뗷헻ꆣ퓚럢 24
훐킡웳튵냥뾪럅쪽벯뫏뺺볛킧맻쪵횤퇐뺿 뇕쪽벯뫏뺺볛뗄뾪엌쒣쪽쿂ꎬ평폚춶헟쎻폐ퟣ릻뗄탅쾢ꎬ횻쓜뗈떽뾪엌뫳ꎬ춨맽솬탸뺺볛ꎬ쪹볛룱믘맩떽뫏샭볛캻ꎬ헢뻍퓬돉쫐뎡볛룱뗄듳럹늨뚯ꎻ뛸퓚뾪럅쪽벯뫏뺺볛훐ꎬ춶헟뿉틔춨맽쎻폐쫂쪵돉붻뗄탩쓢볛룱뇤뚯ꎬ벰쪱뗷헻쿂떥닟싔ꎬ쪹막볛뷏뿬뗄듯떽뻹뫢볛룱ꎬ복짙탨튪평솬탸뺺볛뷗뛎닅쓜쪵쿖뗄막볛뇤뚯ꆣ놾컄톡좡PD횵살뫢솿뾪럅쪽벯뫏뺺볛뗄듋쿮킧싊ꎬ뻟쳥볆쯣랽램죧춼11쯹쪾ꎺ PD뗄럖쒸쫇평탩쓢뾪엌볛뺭샺맽뗄볛룱폫쎿죕솬탸뺺볛뷗뛎캴뺭샺맽뗄볛룱닮횵쯹릹돉뗄ꎬ헢룶닮횵햼좫쳬막볛ꎨ냼삨벯뫏뺺볛뷗뛎ꎩ늨뚯럹뛈뗄뇈샽풽듳ꎬ쮵쏷퓚뾪럅쪽벯뫏뺺볛뷗뛎ꎬ막볛뗷헻뗄럹뛈쿠뛔풽듳ꎬ뷸뛸랴펳듋훆뛈뛔컈뚨쫐뎡솬탸뺺볛뗄ퟷ폃풽듳ꆣ ꎨ2ꎩ 쪵횤볬퇩 듓뇭5쇐쪾쇋훐킡웳튵냥막욱짏쫐쫗퓂PD횵뗄뇤뮯ꆣ뿉틔뾴돶ꎬ춨맽뾪럅쪽벯뫏뺺볛ꎬ쓜릻붫풭놾탨튪퓚솬탸뺺볛뷗뛎랢짺뗄막볛늨뚯ꎬ퓚뾪엌횮잰춨맽쯹뷒쪾뗄탩쓢돉붻볛폨틔맦뇜ꎬ쇭췢ꎬ평폚탩쓢뾪엌볛룱늢늻랢짺돉붻ꎬ듳듳붵뗍쇋쫐뎡뗷뷚돉놾ꆣ 25
훐킡웳튵냥뾪럅쪽벯뫏뺺볛킧맻쪵횤퇐뺿 MAX HIPD=2(HI-MAX)/(HI+MIN)HI MAXMIN LOPD=2(MIN-LO)/(MAX+LO)LO MIN ꎨꋱꎩꎨꋲꎩHI MAXMAX HI2(HI−MAX)+(MIN−LO)PD=PD=0 (HI+LO)MIN LOMIN LO ꎨꋳꎩꎨꋴꎩ뷒쪾볛죕볛닮ꎺPD 솬탸뺺볛ퟮ룟볛ꎺMAX 솬탸뺺볛ퟮ뗍볛ꎺMIN 뾪럅쪽벯뫏뺺볛탩쓢ퟮ룟볛ꎺHI 뾪럅쪽벯뫏뺺볛탩쓢ퟮ뗍볛ꎺLO 춼11 탩쓢뷒쪾볛죕볛닮쪾틢춼 뇭5 짮쫐퇹놾막뾪엌탩쓢뷒쪾볛죕닮볛믣ퟜ뇭 탲뫅 죕웚 퇹놾쫽솿PDꎨퟮ듳ꎩPDꎨ뻹ꎩ 1 % % 2004-6-258 2 % % 2004-6-288 3 % % 2004-6-298 4 % % 2004-6-3010 5 % % 2004-7-1 7 6 % % 2004-7-2 10 7 % % 2004-7-5 13 8 % % 2004-7-6 13 9 % % 2004-7-7 13 10 % % 2004-7-8 15 11 % % 2004-7-9 14 12 % % 2004-7-1216 13 % % 2004-7-1319 14 % % 2004-7-1419 15 % % 2004-7-1519 16 % % 2004-7-1620 17 % % 2004-7-1921 18 % % 2004-7-2021 19 % % 2004-7-2124 20 % % 2004-7-2224 21 % % 2004-7-2324 % % 26
훐킡웳튵냥뾪럅쪽벯뫏뺺볛킧맻쪵횤퇐뺿 컥ꆢ뷡싛벰붨틩 1. 믹놾뷡싛 룹뻝샭싛럖컶뫍쪵횤볬퇩뗄뷡맻ꎬ놾컄죏캪뾪럅쪽벯뫏뺺볛퓚뾪엌뚨볛짏쫇폐킧뗄ꎬ폐샻폚쳡룟벯뫏뺺볛웚볤뗄돉붻쫽솿ꎻ폐샻폚쳡룟춶헟붻틗틢풸ꎻ폐샻폚붵뗍뾪엌뷗뛎춶헟럧쿕늹뎥돉놾ꎻ폐샻폚솬탸뺺볛뷗뛎뗄쫐뎡컈뚨탔ꆣ짏쫶쳘탔퓚막욱짏쫐쫗죕뇭쿖폈캪돤럖ꆣ쇭췢ꎬ뾪럅쪽벯뫏뺺볛퓚틽죫돵웚ꎬ쫐뎡듦퓚뗄퓚뾪엌횮잰막볛춬쿲뇤뚯뗄쟩뿶ꎬ쯦ퟅ쫐뎡닎폫헟뛔맦퓲뗄샭뷢뫍샭탔뗄믘맩ꎬ듋쿖쿳폐쯹뮺뫍ꆣ 2. 훆뛈붨틩 뷡뫏짏컄뗄쪵횤볬퇩뫍톧헟쏇뗄쳖싛ꎬퟮ듳뗄헹틩뗣뻍쫇떣탄샻폃뾪럅쪽벯뫏뺺볛뗄닎뾼볛룱뗄뇤뚯ꎬ펰쿬춶헟뗄캯췐탐캪ꎬ뷸뛸닙ퟝ뾪엌볛룱ꆣ룹뻝톧헟쏇뗄퇐뺿ꎬ뻟쳥닙ퟝ랽쪽뿉쓜폐죽훖ꎺ 쫗쿈ꎬ닉좡샠쯆ꆰ폕뛠ꆱ믲ꆰ폕뿕ꆱ뗄ퟶ램ꎬꆰ볒ꆱ뿉틔쪵쿖삭룟돶믵믲듲톹컼돯ꆣꆰ볒ꆱ춨맽쳡붻탩볙싲죫캯췐살삭룟닎뾼볛룱훁헇뗸춣냥ꎬ듓뛸컼틽늿럖룺럧싲죫캯췐ꎬ퓚쿞훆뎷쿺캯췐잰튻뿌뎷쿺싲죫캯췐늢뛸쳡붻싴돶캯췐ꆣ평폚룺럧싲죫캯췐틑쎻폐믺믡뎷쿺ꎬ맊놻웈뷓쫜ꆰ볒ꆱ뗄싴돶캯췐ꎬ평듋ꆰ볒ꆱ쪵쿖ꆰ뷓뷼쇣돉놾ꆱ뗄삭룟돶믵ꆣꆰ폕뿕ꆱퟶ램퓲쿠랴ꆣ웤듎ꎬ춨맽뺡퓧쳡붻탩볙캯췐살펰쿬닎뾼볛룱ꎬꆰ볒ꆱ뿉틔붵뗍닙ퟝ뾪엌볛룱뗄돉놾ꆣ춨맽쳡붻뗍볛싴돶캯췐톹뗍닎뾼볛룱훁튻뚨럹뛈ꎬ뿉틔복짙웤쯻춶헟쳡붻싴돶캯췐뗄쫽솿ꎬ퓚벯뫏뺺볛뷡쫸잰ꎬ퓙쳡붻듳뛮싲죫캯췐삭룟뾪엌볛룱ꆣ 27
훐킡웳튵냥뾪럅쪽벯뫏뺺볛킧맻쪵횤퇐뺿 춨맽복짙웤쯻춶헟싴돶캯췐뗄쫽솿ꎬꆰ볒ꆱ뿉퓚튻뚨돌뛈짏붵뗍삭룟뾪엌볛룱뗄돉놾ꆣ랴횮ꎬ퓲뿉틔붵뗍듲톹뾪엌볛룱뗄돉놾ꆣ뗚죽ꎬ평폚뷒쪾닎뾼볛룱ꆢ욥엤솿뫍캴욥엤솿ꎬ뛔ꆰ볒ꆱ뛸퇔ꎬ쓜릻룼ힼ좷맀볆뿘훆볛룱뗄돉놾ꆣ쯤좻퓚럢뇕쪽벯뫏뺺볛랽쪽쿂ꎬꆰ볒ꆱ튲뿉틔춨맽퓚ퟮ뫳쪱뿌쳡붻듳뛮캯췐뗄랽쪽살닙ퟝ뾪엌볛룱ꎬ떫퓚뾪럅쪽벯뫏뺺볛랽쪽쿂ꎬힼ놸퓚ퟮ뫳튻뿌쳡붻듳뛮캯췐뗄ꆰ볒ꆱ뿉틔뷏ힼ좷맀볆뿉쓜뗄돉붻솿ꎬ뷸뛸맀볆돶쯹탨뗄럑폃ꆣ틲듋ꎬ헢킩탅쾢퓚튻뚨돌뛈짏랽뇣쇋ꆰ볒ꆱ뛔뾪엌볛룱뗄뿘훆ꆣ 뛔폚뗚죽훖닙ퟝ쫖램ꎬ뿉틔춨맽늻릫늼쪣폠돉붻솿뗄훆뛈폨틔뇜쏢ꆣ뛔폚잰솽훖닙ퟝ뗄쫖램ꎬ컒쏇펦룃뛔쳡붻탩볙캯췐펰쿬ꆰ닎뾼볛룱ꆱ늢ퟮ훕펰쿬뾪엌볛룱뗄탐캪뷸탐폐킧럀랶ꆣ쫂쪵짏ꎬ뛔폚쳡붻탩볙캯췐뷸탐ꆰ폕욭ꆱ헢훖ퟶ램ꎬ볲떥뛸폐킧뗄럀랶듫쪩횮튻뻍쫇춨맽쿞훆뎷쿺캯췐ꎬ폈웤쫇듳뛮뎷쿺캯췐살쿞훆ꆰ볒ꆱ퓚벯뫏뺺볛쪱뛎쳡붻탩볙캯췐ꆣ춨맽퇓뎤늻뿉뎷떥쪱볤ꎨ럖쿠20뛔퇓뎤뫍뻸뛔퇓뎤솽훖랽낸ꎬ볻춼12뫍춼13ꎩꎬ붫뿉틔튻뚨돌뛈짏폨틔뇜쏢ꆣ 늻뿉뎷떥늻뷓쫕캯췐09:1509:17 09:2509: 3015:00 뾪럅쪽벯뫏뺺볛쪱뛎샤좴웚 솬탸뺺볛쪱뛎 춼12 쿠뛔퇓뎤늻뿉뎷떥쪱볤랽낸뗄쪾틢춼 늻뿉뎷떥늻뷓쫕캯췐09:1509:20 09:2809: 3015:00 뾪럅쪽벯뫏뺺볛쪱뛎샤좴웚 솬탸뺺볛쪱뛎 춼13 뻸뛔퇓뎤늻뿉뎷떥쪱볤랽낸뗄쪾틢춼 쿠뛔퇓뎤늻뿉뎷떥쪱볤뗄랽낸ꎬ웤폅쫆훷튪쳥쿖퓚늻룄뇤춶헟붻틗쾰 20 퇓뎤늻뿉뎷떥쪱볤ꎬ튻퓲쪹닙ퟝ헟퓚룼뎤쪱볤쓚늻쓜춨맽뎷떥펰쿬쫐뎡볛룱ꎬ퓶볓닙ퟝ뢴퓓뛈ꎻ뛾퓲뫏맦춶헟춨맽룼뎤쪱볤뛔뷒쪾볛룱뷸탐랴펦ꎬ쪹닙ퟝ헟돐떣룼뛠뗄럧쿕ꎬ뷸뛸퓶볓닙ퟝ헟뗄닙ퟝ돉놾ꆣ 28
훐킡웳튵냥뾪럅쪽벯뫏뺺볛킧맻쪵횤퇐뺿 21맟ꆣ뛔폚뻸뛔퇓뎤늻뿉뎷떥쪱볤뗄랽낸ꎬ평폚뾪럅쪽벯뫏뺺볛튵틑쪵쪱릫늼닎뾼볛룱ꎬ춶헟틑폐룼뎤뗄쪱볤뛔듋뷸탐랴펦ꎻ쇭췢ꎬ짮뮦붻틗쯹듩뫏쾵춳뒦샭벯뫏뺺볛뗄쯙뛈뷏뿬ꎬ듯떽쏫벶ꎬ쇭췢돉붻믘놨쯙뛈튲믹놾쓜뿘훆퓚튻럖훓횮쓚ꎻퟷ캪쪱볤뇪횾ꎬ5럖훓뗄쪱볤뷏뎤ꆣ틲듋붨틩퓚짮뮦솽룶붻틗쯹좫쏦췆탐뾪럅쪽벯뫏뺺볛쪱ꎬ뿉틔복짙샤좴웚뗄쪱볤ꎬ뻸뛔퇓뎤늻뿉뎷떥쪱볤ꆣ 21 짨솢샤좴웚뗄풭틲훷튪폐ꎺ벯뫏뺺볛닺짺뾪엌볛룱ꎬ춶헟뛔듋볛룱탨튪폐튻룶쿻뮯샭뷢뗄쪱볤ꎻ쫇튻룶쪱볤뇪횾ꎬ폃틔쟸럖벯뫏뺺볛뫍솬탸뺺볛ꎻ쾵춳벯훐뒦샭뫍쫽뻝뒫쫤탨튪쪱볤ꆣ 29
훐킡웳튵냥뾪럅쪽벯뫏뺺볛킧맻쪵횤퇐뺿 닎뾼컄쿗 Economides, 1995ꎺNicholas Schwartz. Electronic call market trading[J]. Journal of Portfolio Management, 21:3, 10-18 Friedman, Daniel, 1993(31): How Trading Institutions Affect Financial Market Performance: Some Laboratory Evidence[J], Economic Inquiry, 410-435 Handa Puneet, Robert , 1996: Limit order trading[J]. Journal of Finance., 51, 1835-1860 Oehler Andreas, Matthias Unser, 1998: Market Transparency and Call Markets[D], Mimeo, Department of Finance, Bamberg University. Schwartz, Robert A., Reshaping the Equity Markets, 1993: A Guide For the 1990s[M], Business One Irwin, Illinois. 닌캰뇲ꎬ2003ꎺ룷맺ꎨ뗘쟸ꎩ막욱붻틗훆뛈믣뇠폫췪짆컒맺붻틗훆뛈뗄쮼뾼[C]ꆣ짮붻쯹쓚늿쳖싛룥 돂놣뮪ꎬ 2001(5)ꎺ붻틗믺훆뛔막볛탐캪뗄펰쿬ꆪꆪ뛔훐맺막욱쫐뎡뗄쪵횤퇐뺿[J]ꆣ뺭볃퇐뺿ꎬ69-95 뿗낮맺ꎬ믆붨뇸ꎬ뫺캷ꎬ ꎺ짏몣막욱쫐뎡늨뚯쪵횤탔퇐뺿:2001 ꆪ듓붻틗랽쪽뷇뛈춸쫓[J]ꆣ뢴떩톧놨(짧믡뿆톧냦)ꎬ 56-67 샮탋탷ꎬ2002(6)ꎺ벯뫏뺺볛쫐뎡훐횤좯뾪엌볛룱뗄탎돉맽돌퇐뺿[J]ꆣ뺭볃컊쳢첽쯷ꎬ 51-54 쇵ꎬ엊뗇ꎬ2002ꎺ뮦쫐벯뫏뺺볛붻틗탐캪쪵횤퇐뺿[C]ꆣ짏몣횤좯붻틗쯹퇐뺿놨룦 엊뗇ꎬ쇵ꎬ쇵몣쇺ꎬ컢돥럦ꎬ:럢뇕쪽벯뫏뺺볛붻틗닟싔쒣탍벰뛔뮦쫐뗄쪵횤볬퇩[J]ꆣ쾵춳릤돌샭싛폫쪵볹ꎬ1-10 췵뾭ꎬ ꎺ튵쓚횸돶ꎺ탂뺺볛랽쪽놻틉췆룟뾪엌볛[J]ꆣ횤좯쫐뎡훜뾯 헔ꎬ퇮커ꎬ2003(10):컒맺횤좯쫐뎡뾪엌볛룱뗄탎돉믺훆럖컶[J]ꆣ쫽솿뺭볃벼쫵뺭볃퇐뺿ꎬ90ꎭ94 30
훐킡웳튵냥뾪럅쪽벯뫏뺺볛킧맻쪵횤퇐뺿 뢽뇭1 퇐뺿퇹놾벰럖샠 횤좯듺싫 랢탐죕웚 쫗랢짏쫐죕웚 쫗랢쫽솿(막) 퇹놾쟸볤 캯췐떥쫽 002001 2004-6-2 2004-6-25 30000000 — 225379002002 2004-6-3 2004-6-25 30000000 — 371585002003 2004-6-4 2004-6-25 21000000 — 213692탂002004 2004-6-7 2004-6-25 22000000 — 173916냋002005 2004-6-8 2004-6-25 26000000 — 227774막 002006 2004-6-9 2004-6-25 30000000 — 41215253002007 2004-6-10 2004-6-25 22000000 — 1556002008 2004-6-11 2004-6-25 27000000 — 37054851981002009 2004-6-14 2004-6-29 25000000 2004-6-29 짮36608002010 2004-6-15 2004-6-29 20000000 2004-6-29 ?44667002011 2004-6-16 2004-7-5 28000000 2004-7-5 훐47885 002012 2004-6-17 2004-7-5 30000000 2004-7-5 킡38935002013 2004-6-18 2004-7-5 20000000 2004-7-5 웳34703002014 2004-6-21 2004-7-8 23400000 2004-7-8 튵38874 002015 2004-6-22 2004-7-8 20000000 2004-7-8 냥 45352002016 2004-6-23 2004-7-8 25000000 2004-7-8 47465002017 2004-6-24 2004-7-13 25000000 2004-7-13 33613 002018 2004-6-25 2004-7-13 20000000 2004-7-13 25126002019 2004-6-28 2004-7-13 15000000 2004-7-13 27116002020 2004-6-29 2004-7-15 17600000 2004-7-15 37519002021 2004-6-30 2004-7-15 26000000 2004-7-15 29156002022 2004-7-5 2004-7-21 18000000 2004-7-21 35728 002023 2004-7-6 2004-7-21 24000000 2004-7-21 35262002024 2004-7-7 2004-7-21 25000000 2004-7-21 000603 28500000 — 1352000605 20625000 — 2200짮?훐킡엌막000669 22990000 — 5711 ꎨ2000000671 29104992 — 1053췲ꎭ000736 26000000 — 115783000000835 27000000 — 2866췲ꎩ 000925 30000000 — 2364000985 30000000 — 1718짏몣13488 600444 2004-2-4 2004-2-19 30000000 2004-2-19 9760600479 2004-2-26 2004-3-12 18000000 2004-3-12 9777600594 2004-3-8 2004-3-23 20000000 2004-3-23 8784600455 2004-3-12 2004-3-29 22000000 2004-3-29 12216600405 2004-3-17 2004-4-1 30000000 2004-4-1 8213600988 2004-3-30 2004-4-14 25000000 2004-4-14
훐킡웳튵냥뾪럅쪽벯뫏뺺볛킧맻쪵횤퇐뺿 8598 600410 2004-4-12 2004-4-27 24000000 2004-4-27 6607600990 2004-4-16 2004-5-10 20000000 2004-5-10 5406600993 2004-4-23 2004-5-17 18000000 2004-5-17 7177600491 2004-4-30 2004-5-24 28000000 2004-5-24 32
쓚늿놨룦 뷶릩닎뾼 냦좨쯹폐 쟖좨뇘뺿 놾놨룦뷶듺뇭룶죋틢볻ꎬ늻듺뇭쯹퓚떥캻맛뗣ꆣ 뗘횷ꎺ짮?쫐뢣쳯쟸뫬샳컷슷203 뚰 뗧뮰ꎺ0755-83203511 뒫헦ꎺ0755-83203431 폊뇠ꎺ518028
