ֻ28जֻ6௹฿ࣃഅြն࿐࿐Бo..Vl28No62(X)8୍11ᄅၛ)8ᆄࡾࣜ࠶ᄹӉაੀ:ࠎႿ༂ҵྩᆞଆ֥ٳ༅߈ᆟ(ᆄࡾ۽അն࿐ࣜ࠶࿐ჽ,ݳᇜ31018)}ᅋေ~ᄝಆ౯ളӁุ༢༯,ੀᆞᄝӮູ႕ཙӬࣜ࠶ᄹӉ֥၂۱҂ॖޭ൪֥эਈbၹՎ,Ֆඔഈဒᆣੀ֥ࣜ࠶ࡎᆴᇀܱᇗေbЧ໓ࠎႿᆄࡾസ1978၂2ҧຉ୍֥࠹ඔऌ,ᄎႨླྀᆜٳ༅ބ༂ҵྩᆞଆൈᆄࡾӬࣜ࠶ᄹӉაੀ֥Ӊ௹ބ؋௹ܱ༢ࣉྛ࣮b࣮ࢲંіૼ:Ֆ؋௹টु,ᆄࡾૄ୍CDPაఃӉ௹नޙᆴ֥ொҵᇏ֥.83694%Фྩᆞ;ՖӉ௹টु,ᆄࡾࣜ࠶ᄹӉაੀᄹӉࡗթᄝॖौ֥ླྀᆜܱ༢,ՖطЌӻਆᆀ֥नޙؿᅚऎႵ٤ӈᇗေ֥ࣜ࠶ၩၬb}ܱࡲՍ~m֗ൃ;ࠊᄎਈ;ੀ;༂ҵྩᆞଆ[ᇏಁٳোݼ]F252[໓ངѓ്]A[໓ᅣщݼ]1674၂2362(205)Ӌ၂012၂ၛ20ൗࡀ70୍սଌݓ࿐ඌࢸषՖರЧ֝1໙ี֥ิԛದੀۀ,80୍սࣉದੀં࣮֥ఓൈग़ֹܴඪ,ᄝಆ౯ളӁຩМࣟ༯,གྷսੀ௹,90୍սᇏު௹ݓࣉದགྷսੀॹؿᅚࢨၘࣜӮູ၂۱႕ཙ၂ݓࠇֹࣜ࠶ᄹӉ֥҂ॖޭ؍,ൈགྷսੀ֥ࣜ࠶ࡎᆴ္ष൳֞ੀં൪֥эਈbӉ௹ၛটੀ֥ഠ߶ࣜ࠶ࡎᆴ၂ᆰФ࣮ਵთମᇀ܄ᇙ֥ܼܱٗᇿCܱႿࣜ࠶ᄹӉაޭ൪,࣐ܵᄝܞׅaྍܞׅ֥ࣜ࠶࿐ބݓ࠽સၞੀཌྷܱྟ္֥࣮ᇯ҄ᄹࡆ,ைೂ߲aᅦૹંଆᇏ္Ⴕੀ(ᄎൻ)эਈ,൞ᄝ֒ൈ֥ഠࢲކ1985၂199୍֥ඔऌ,ࡹ৫ਔഈݚࣜ࠶ᄹӉ߶ളӁ৯ބඌࣉ҄ඣ่ࡱ༯,ੀᆃ၂ग़ܴթაགྷսੀཌྷܱ༢֥ඔ࿐ଆ,ࣼഈݚੀؓࣜᄝ֥эਈሹ൞Фࣜ࠶࿐ࡅૌၛದૌ෮ିࢤ൳֥ٚ࠶ᄹӉ֥ቔႨࣉྛਔൌᆣ࣮,ҩקਔགྷսੀؓൔ෮ဃۂbದૌᆇᆞؓੀࣜ࠶ࡎᆴ֥ᇗ൪ބܱഈݚࣜ࠶ᄹӉ֥܊ངbԫޣఓaਾऺࠎႿ࿐ᇿ൞Ֆ20ൗࡀ60୍սष֥,1962୍ૅݓᇷ࿐֥ӆંંބთࣜ࠶ֹ࿐ᆩ്,൫ܒࡹ၂۱ᆀд֤c֣ਗ਼क़ᄝuࣜ࠶֥ޑնv၂໓ᇏ఼טޡܴྟੀӆଆ,ѩ۴ऌ၂Ϯӆંᇏ֥Ⴕܱקੰႋۚ؇ᇗ൪ੀ๙ၛࠣੀ๙ݖӱᇏ֥ੀܵ,ႄఏิԛਔၛൌਈֆ໊іൕ֥ੀሹਈᆷѓioህࡅa࿐ᆀބြଽದൖؓੀࣜ࠶ࡎᆴ֥ܼٗᆚ૾ંੀܿଆp}nr,ࠧંੀܿଆؽ१/KY,ఃᇏ:Yაනॉb20ൗࡀ70୍ս,ರЧᄪ֟โն࿐࢝൱༆ູੀᄎਈࠧࠊᇛሇਈ,Cູੀ๔ؘਈࠧ९ᄶྩᄝuੀ๙ٮႨv၂ᇏϜੀӫູഉրड֥թਈ,KູӈਈbೋზࠎႿ1978၂203୍ᆄࡾoֻ০ჷಅpb20ൗࡀ90୍սၛक़ਗ਼۬ણູസ֥ཌྷܱඔऌࣼགྷսੀؓࣜ࠶ᄹӉ֥ቔႨࣉྛսі֥ྍࣜ࠶ֹ࿐ંaྍݓ࠽સၞંषࡼਔൈࡗਙٳ༅,ࢲંಪູགྷսੀؓCDൃ܊ངॢࡗֹၹବೆࣜ࠶࿐֥ٳ༅ॿࡏ,ၛܿଆБޓն,ൈϜགྷսੀؓఃӁြބთࣜ࠶֥႕ԏ־ᄹa҂ປಆࣩᆚູࡌഡభิ,ՖധҪՑഈંඍཙٳљ݂ࢲູުཟིႋaகҧིႋaభཟིႋაൈࡗིႋbਔ၂۱ݓࡅࠇთູൌགྷܿଆࣜ࠶Ֆطൌགྷᄎൻ[nxӱൗaமఃძࠎႿ1990၂203୍ඔऌӮЧቋཬ߄֥৯ބቅ৯bႋႨ࠹ਈࣜ࠶࿐֥ٚم,ၛmDൃູФࢳэਈ,ၛ൬۠ರ௹:208၂၂0908ࠎࣁཛଢ:ᆄࡾസ༅࿐ഠ߶॓࿐ܿ߃ӈܿज़ี(NX05YJ08Ѿᆄ၂അն࿐ౝ୍ದҌࠎࣁq1050xJ130716)ቔᆀࡥࢺ:߈ᆟ(1970၂.)ଳ.νߪమದ,ڬ࢝൱,ණൖ.ᇶေՖ൙ੀ๙ࣜ࠶aݓ࠽સၞંაᆟҦ࣮
ֻ6௹߈ᆟ:ᆄࡾࣜ࠶ᄹӉაੀ:ࠎႿ༂ҵྩᆞଆ֥ٳ༅ࠊᇛሇਈቔູࢳэਈ,ؓགྷսੀაνߪࣜ࠶і11,,seZҧӆ୍ᆄࡾֹളӁሹᆴაࠊᄎ.ᄹӉ֥ཌྷܱ༢ࣉྛਔൌᆣٳ༅,ࢲંಪູνߪ୍ࣜٺGDP/ၡჭFT/ຣ୍ؕٺ{cDP/ၡჭFT/ຣؕ.၂࠶ᄹӉაགྷսੀ֥ܱ৳؇ཁᇷbq4r৯aဗੁ০197812372846()Ⴈ.VARଆࠎႿ1996၂205୍ඔऌؓᆄࡾੀa1979157759202ࣜ࠶ᄹӉaିჷࡎ֥ܱ۬༢ࣉྛਔൌᆣ࣮,ࢲં.1980179729577.іૼഠ߶ੀᇛሇਈam֗ൃaିჷࡎ۬ᆀᆭࡗթ19812048696()8.ᄝӉ௹ླྀᆜܱ༢;ିჷၹᇅჿੀؿᅚ;ഠ߶19822340110746.ੀᇛሇਈაm֗ൃթᄝֆཟၹݔܱ༢,ࠧགྷսੀ19832570910877.Ӂြ֥ؿᅚؓC֗ൃቔႨཁᇷ,mDൃᄹӉؓགྷս19843232511781.ੀ֥႕ཙѩ҂ཁᇷb19854291622385[51Ֆгᆀ෮ҕᄇ֥໓ངु,ࠎႿ.19865024731775ࠊᄎਈᆷѓؓᆄࡾࣜ࠶აੀཌྷܱྟ֥ൌᆣ࣮҂.19876069932346؟,Ч໓ࠎႿ୍࣍টܼٗႋႨ֥༂ҵྩᆞଆ(ؽetionMode,lEeM)ؓՎჍၛൌᆣྟٳ༅ଆ֥ܒࡹ9()9(ෞ...21ࣜ࠶ᄹӉაੀECMଆ19213757041115ᗲૌၛο୍֒ࡎ۬࠹ෘ֥ᆄࡾֹളӁሹᆴሧਘটჷ:۴ऌuᆄࡾ࠹୍vᆜb֥ؓඔInGDൃູФࢳэਈ,ၛൌྟᆷѓݕ2ൈࡗਙ֥ֆ໊۴ဒࠊᄎਈi(FreightTrc,afiFT)֥ؓඔInFTູࢳээဒোADFཁࢸᆴᇷඣ,ਈbՖФࢳэਈInGDPაࢳэਈInFT֥ׄ(C,TL)࠹ਈਢ%.Inॖၛ؎GDP1982649၂.195405,InCDൃაInFTᆭࡗࠎЧഈթᄝཌྟ.,ܱ༢InGDP(Cl)၂02946၂.,ܣࡹ৫݂߭ٚӱ09297505:InGDP(C,T,l)၂.2984848၂.358675InGDP:ؽeb+ellnFච+um¶InCDP(C,l)၂.3233777၂.297985؋௹ᇏ,ູਔิۚଆ֥ࣜ࠶ၩၬ,ૌࡹ.2053178၂.l954()5৫༂ҵྩᆞଆ:.InFT()၂.09l9()79၂297505¶InGDP,=eb+e.¶InFࢸ+eZecmmInF,T(C,Tl)၂.251939၂.ඔऌ֥࿊౼ϖInFT(C,l)၂.3708229၂.370761۴ऌuᆄࡾ࠹୍v,ૌ൮༵࿊౼ο୍֒ඪૼ:ဒࢲݔႮEviewsೈࡱ۳ԛ;ဒো(C,.TL)ٳљіࡎ۬࠹ෘ֥ᆄࡾളӁሹᆴაࠊᄎਈਆቆൈࡗਙൕֆ໊۴ဒٚӱЇওӈඔཛaൈࡗ൝ބᇌު௹ཋ.ఃᇏᇌު௹ဢЧඔऌ,ဢЧ௹ູཋႮAICބSCቋཬሙᄵथק;ϖіൕҵٳෘሰ1978၂206୍(іb1).32ླྀᆜဒ3ඔऌ໗ྟაэtླྀᆜဒෙಖൈࡗਙInCDP,InFT൞٤໗֥၂ࢨֆ.31ֆ໊۴ဒᆜਙ,ఃॖିթᄝଖᇕ໗֥ཌྟቆކ,ᆃᇕູਔဒൈࡗਙ֥໗ྟ,ૌླေؓཌྟቆކّ႘ਔэਈᆭࡗӉ௹໗ק֥б২ܱ༢,ࠧInླྀᆜܱ༢bЧ໓Ⴈ༢ࠞնරಖܙ࠹مؓ؟эGDൃaInFTࣉྛֆ໊۴ဒbೂݔ٤໗ਙۥ֥၂ࢨҵٳ৵,X൞໗֥,ପહൈࡗਙ:Xࣼ൞ਈൈࡗਙࣉྛླྀᆜဒ(ೂіb3)ऎႵ၂۱ֆ໊۴֥၂ࢨֆᆜݖӱbႮіݕ3ൈࡗਙ֥ླྀᆜဒ2֥ဒLR5%lࢲݔॖᆩ,InCDൃaInFTᆃਆ۱ਙᆺթᄝ၂ࢨหᆘᆴ%ࡌקླྀᆜٚӱ࠹ਈਢࢸᆴਢࢸᆴ(CE)۱ඔֆ໊۴,ඪૼૌ൞၂ࢨֆᆜ֥,ࠧaInGDpInFT...0154362534579415412004֥၂ࢨҵٳਙ൞໗֥,ՖطૌॖၛᄝՎࠎԤቋ؟թᄝl۱..00229880651192ഈ࿃ဒᆃུਙᆭࡗ֥ླྀᆜܱ༢bླྀᆜܱ༢
฿ࣃഅြն࿐࿐Б208୍Ⴎі3ॖթᄝinGDP,,,InFT၂a(1l)ࠧݕ4duInGDp)აd(InFT)֥۬ধࢭၹݔܱ༢ဒInCDPაinFTᆭࡗթᄝӉ௹नޙܱ༢bၹݔܱ༢ࡌקF࠹ਈPᆴࢲં.33۬ধࢭၹݔܱ༢ဒd(InFT)҂൞d(InGDP)֥۬ধࢭჰၹ.3723400ၛ130ऋधཌྷܱѩ҂၂קၩሢթᄝၹݔܱ༢,҂թᄝၹ.d(InGDP)҂൞d(InFT)֥۬ধࢭჰၹ.6182690(X)774ऋधݔܱ༢֥ཌྷܱٳ༅ສສಌكൌ࠽ࣜ࠶ၩၬbၹՎՖၛഈٳ༅ॖ:ࣼGDPაFTࡹ৫ଆऎႵૌᄎႨ۬ধࢭၹݔܱ༢ဒم(Grangereausa-liࢠݺ֥ࣜ࠶ၩၬbtyTest)ؓэਈၹݔܱ༢Ⴭၛဒb๙ݖဒؿགྷ4InCDൃaInFTᆭࡗ҂թᄝၹݔܱ༢b൞ࠎႿܙ࠹ࢲݔٳ༅lnmDPaInFT֥၂ࢨҵٳਙ֥۬ধࢭၹݔܱ༢ૌᄎႨ࠹ਈࣜ࠶࿐ٳ༅ೈࡱEViews۴ऌဒіૼd(InFT)აd(Iny)ູ۬ধࢭၹݔܱ༢,0ెٚم,ؓҕඔcbab:Ⴭၛܙ࠹,ᄝႨܼၬҵٳمೂі4෮ൕbཨԢਔؽࢨሱཌྷܱᆭު,ఃٚӱູ:..InGDP=0228837InFT+qar(l)=168408r+qar(2ؽ၂.)0655783xrؽ..(2897362)(1199379)(၂.4671845)P..=(0079)(0uᇝҭᇝr.)(0uXX)1).RZؽ..,,0998515DW=1590()l6Fؽ8068484Ⴎၛഈܙ࠹ࢲݔॖᆩ,ٚӱᇏ༢ඔ֥ൃᆴनཬູ:b,ؽbb+bl:+ࠫᗲ,+:ဒࢲݔཁൕ݂߭ٚӱႿ۳ק֥ཁᇷྟඣ.,005ॖ༢ඔཁᇷ;ൈ,֥༂ҵཛ҂թᄝၳٚҵྟbथק༢ඔR,֥ᆴࢤ࣍,lࠧ.9955150/֥Inebൃ֥࣐ܵInGDൃაInFTᄝӉ௹ᇏթᄝླྀᆜܱ༢,эॖႮInFTটࢳ,ॖଆ֥ކིݔޓ؋௹ଽ,эਈᆭࡗթᄝ҂नޙܱ༢,ၹՎ,ླႨ༂ݺbਸ਼ຓ,۴ऌFဒॖᆩଆٚӱ֥ሹุཌྟܱҵྩᆞଆ(ECM)টטᆜbၹՎ,ૌ০Ⴈ༢ཁᇷӮ৫bૌ০ႨWheitဒ,ቓҗҵ֥ٚEviewsೈࡱؓ༂ҵྩᆞଆࣉྛ݂߭ܙෘ,ࢲݔؓ෮Ⴕჰэਈaэਈ֥֥ٚڣᇹ݂߭,ٚӱೂ༯:¶..m_InCDP,=0245215હInFࢸ.+0932839¶InGDP,_၂.0205853¶InF҂_:၂0083694ecm..(2420484)(8981558)(၂.1928617)(၂.0322211).RZ=0॓.,.0593DW=1803729Fؽ5775777۴ऌі5෮ൕঘ۬ರӰඔ(LM)ဒ֥ϴෛཙ,༂ҵྩᆞ༢ඔູ၂.,0083694ژކّཟྩᆞࠏۀੱॖᆩ,ᄝᇌު௹࿊ᄴ၂aؽ௹ൈ,ଆन҂թᄝᇅ,ّ႘ਔؓொӉ௹नޙ֥טᆜ৯؇qmࠄࠧіૼሱཌྷܱbᆄࡾૄ୍ൌ࠽ྙӮ֥mDPაఃӉ௹नޙᆴ֥ொҵක5ECMଆLMဒᇏ֥.83694%ФྩᆞbՖӉ௹টु,ᆄࡾࣜ࠶ᄹ၂ࢨᇌު:F࠹ਈ၂93336ൃᆴ0၂72639Ӊაੀᆭࡗթᄝॖौ֥नޙܱ༢,ੀؿᅚభࣟ၂84ൃᆴ.0185226ܼখ,ಯಖթᄝࢠն֥ӮӉॢࡗbؽࢨᇌު:F࠹ਈ..28729ၛ)PᆴᆟҦࡹၰ.nRZ5378266Pᆴ.0067940..521ࡆथᆄࡾགྷսੀ࠹ࠣނෘᇅ؇ࡹഡ֞ଢభູᆸ,ݓഉໃྙӮ၂֥གྷսੀ5ࢲંაᆟҦࡹၰ࠹ࠣނෘᇅ؇,ᆃཛ۽ቔ୍࣍টېېఏ҄,თྟ.51ࢲંੀ࠹ࠣނෘᇅ؇ࡹഡ۷ࡆᇌުମᇀປಆಌാ,۴ऌECMٚӱ,mDൃ֥؋௹эॖၛٳູਆᆄࡾ္҂২ຓbགྷսੀ࠹ࠣނෘᇅ؇ࡹഡ֥҆ٳ;၂൞؋௹FT֥႕ཙ,ࠧFTૄᄹӉ1%,mbൃಌാࠇᇌުᇗᇅჿਔགྷսੀ࣮֥ࣉྛ,ᆞೂᄵᄹӉ.0245215%,ॖੀؿᅚؓᆄࡾࣜ࠶ᄹЧ໓ᆺି࿊౼ࠊᄎਈіᆘᆄࡾੀ၂ဢ,ੀ࣮ӉऎႵбࢠཁᇷ֥ᆞིႋ;ؽ൞ொӉ௹नޙ֥႕ದჴaં۽ቔᆀބᆟکܵ҆ޓࠆ౼ᆇൌa
ֻ6௹߈ᆟ:ᆄࡾࣜ࠶ᄹӉაੀ:ࠎႿ༂ҵྩᆞଆ֥ٳ༅ॖौ֥თੀඔऌ,Ֆطمग़ܴaಆ૫ֹᅧ..523୭৯ࡲಆaປთੀӁြᆟکܿᇅᆄࡾགྷսੀြ֥ܿଆaࢲܒބؿᅚඣ,ࠣൈࡓ॓࿐aކ֥თੀӁြᆟکܿᇅ൞თҩaٳ༅ᆄࡾੀӮӉބᄎྛ൝bၹՎ,ᆟک҆ੀ֤ၛࡲूؿᅚ֥ຓ҆ᇅ؇ߌ֥ࠎԤބЌᆣbႋ୭৯ࡆॹགྷսੀ࠹ࠣނෘᇅ؇ࡹഡ,ႄ֝֒ༀᆭࠤ,ᆄࡾᆟک۲ࠩ҆ႋՖਆ۱Ҫ૫ሢ൭ࡆ॓ჽ෮ն৯षᅚੀ࠹ᆷѓაނෘᆷѓุ༢఼ᆟکܿᇅ,൮༵,ေࡆॹࡹ৫aࡲಆთੀمഡ࠹ބ࣮,৯ྙӮग़ܴaಆ૫aᆇൌ֥ੀඔܿ,ປჿඏࠏᇅބࠗৣࠏᇅ;ఃՑ,ေࢹݓଽຓऌ,ູთੀؿᅚaܿ߃ބथҦิ܂॓࿐֥ྐ༏b༵ࣉࣜဒ,ࢲކᆄࡾሧჷҳڮaሱಖ่ࡱၛࠣੀ..522Ⴊ߄ੀӁြᆟҦ,ᇅק॓࿐aކ֥ੀؿᅚ֥གྷሑބ,୭৯Էྍᆟکܿᇅծീ,Ⴍః൧ӆሙೆѓሙ൞ေࡲಆaປੀಙჷܿᇅaੀߌӵᄛਈᆄࡾࣜ࠶ऎႵoਆᄝຓaնࣉնԛp֥ׅܿᇅބੀ٬ఙܿᇅbหᆘ,ੀ൧ӆమ৯٤ُ,აܼתaࡾ්aתaഈݚaധᎪ֩സ൧ཌྷбҕॉ໓ང:,ᆄࡾੀؿᅚбࢠᇌު,ಯಖીႵᆇᆞྙӮ၂aष٢aࣩᆚaႵ֥ੀڛༀ൧,.es,,ml߲,ᅦૹ.ഈݚੀြؓࣜ࠶ᄹӉቔႨ֥ൌᆣ࣮[Jx.ӆb࣮ః۴ჷ,ᇶေ൞ႮႿთྟੀӁြᆟҦઋഈݚն࿐࿐Б:ሱಖ॓࿐ϱ,201(10):21၂.23ޣఓ,ਾऺ.ੀሹਈᆷѓ֥ܒࡹაൌᆣٳ༅qJ༓.ުੀ,ಌك॓࿐aކa၂֥ੀ൧ӆሙದѓሙ,Ֆඌ,2(X)5(9):11၂.12ط֝ᇁੀᇶุذྟࣩᆚ,ؿᅚ,ഠ߶߄ӱ؇ঋJ၂J.,4ೋზ.ੀြؓთࣜ࠶ᄹӉ֥ൌᆣٳ༅iၛᆄࡾູ২҂ۚ,ੀ༢ི֮ᄎྛbၹՎ,ૌсྶಆ૫.[J]ࣜ࠶ંฆ,2ၛ.(5):22၂24ӱൗ,மఃძ.ԔੀӁြቆᆮaࢲܒa҃अaඌᆟҦ,၂ੀνߪੀြؓࣜ࠶ᄹӉቔႨ֥ൌᆣٳ༅..[JJࢌ๙ѓሙ߄,2ၛຉ(2၂3):86၂88൧ӆሙೆѓሙ,୭৯ഡ࠹ԛൡႋᆄࡾഠ߶ࣜ࠶ؿᔭ,৯,ဗੁ.ੀӁြაݓࣜ࠶ᆭࡗܱ༢֥ൌᆣ࣮qJx.ᅚaڶႵห֥ੀӁြؿᅚᅞܿ߃,ႄ֝ੀݱ۽ն࿐࿐Б,.20(ె(6):lె၂118ఒြބቆᆮਅྟؿᅚ,ิۚੀࣜ࠶ིၭaഠ߶ིۚํ઼.࠹ਈࣜ࠶ٳ༅ٚمაࡹଆಥ.M]Кࣘ:ౢն࿐ԛϱഠ.ၭაളིၭb2၎ຉ:157၂.158EeonoطcGrowthofZhejiangProvinceandLogisties:AnAnalysisBasedonErrorCorreetionModelUHua၂izheng(SehoolofEeonomies,ZhejiangnGoഔhangUn,iveoity,Hanഔhou31018China)Abstract:Intheglobalmanufaeturinsgyste,mlosgities15beeominganindispensablevariablewhiehafeetsregionaleoo-nomie.wthTherefore,itn5quite51Ⴜ(X)6inZhejiangProvinee,thepaperaimstoinvestigatetheloncgteranmdshort-tereomrelationbetweeneeonomiegrowthandIosgitiesbyeo၂inteϴrreaehesthefolowingeonelusions.:83694%ofthedeviationbetweenannua၂lGDPanditslongteremquilibriumis-revisedintheshortterm;andthere15areliableeo၂integrationrelationshiphatweeneeonomiewthandfreighttreafiinZhejianginthelongte,:GDP;freighttrafie;logisties;ErrmCorectionMeedl(ᄳщࠠᇫ߰ङ)
