ֻ16जֻ3௹ ᇏଲն࿐࿐Б(ഠ߶॓࿐ϱ) 2010୍6ᄅ J. CENT. SOUTH UNIV. (SOCIAL SCIENCE) Jun. 2010 ದлൌ࠽Ⴕི߸ੱ֥؋௹ொ iiࠎႿ၂Ϯनޙଆ֥ܙ࠹ 111, 2ᶈđᇫ٦đ֬ᛝᇏ (1. ݱն࿐ࣜ࠶აܵ࿐ჽđКݱđ430072Ġ2. ଲ॓ն࿐ܵ࿐ჽđଲནฉđ411201) ᅋေğࠎႿऺضථᇶၬ֥ࠎЧٳ༅ॿࡏđܒࡹਔڸࡆყ௹֥؋௹ޡܴࣜ࠶ࢲܒଆđѩၛ1994୍ֻ၂࠱؇֞2008୍ֻඹ࠱؇֥ದлൌ࠽Ⴕི߸ੱᆷඔູ֩ඔऌဢЧđᄝԉٳॉ੮ඔऌളӮݖӱބଆ֥ࣜ࠶ંݣၬ֥ࠎԤഈđႨܼၬइ֥ٚمؓࡥֆ֥ޡܴࣜ࠶ࢲܒଆࣉྛܙ࠹bൌᆣࢲݔᆣૼყ௹ؓႿࣜ࠶༢ऎႵᇗေ႕ཙđն҆ٳ࠱؇ದлൌ࠽Ⴕི߸ੱொཬႿ2%đط2008୍ൌ࠽Ⴕི߸ੱശᆴ؇ॹđᆃაଢభ֥කࣜ࠶൞҂ཌྷൡႋ֥bၹՎđᆟکႋھҐ౼ࢆ༏ބᄹࡆࠊл܂۳֥ᆟҦb ܱՍğದлൌ࠽Ⴕི߸ੱĠࢲܒٚӱଆĠ၂ϮनޙĠܼၬइܙ࠹ ᇏٳোݼğ ໓ངѓ്ğA ໓ᅣщݼğ1672-3104(2010)03−0084−07 [4] ޙ߸ੱ֥නམ(BEER)bݓଽ࿐ᆀ؟ඔၛᅦќ֥ଆູҕᅶđࠎႿ҂ൈ௹a҂؇֥ဢЧඔऌđܒࡹ၂a໓ངሸඍ ਔնཬၳ֥ದлनޙ߸ੱֆٚӱଆbᆃোଆ ॉ੮֞ਔ႕ཙ߸ੱ֥ࠎЧࣜ࠶ၹđࡥֆၞྛđҠቔҩෘದлनޙ߸ੱ֥ٚمޓ؟đఃᇏԮ֥ܓྟ఼đ္Ⴕૼཁ֥ಌཊb ઙ৯ࡎ֥ٚمޓႵ႕ཙ৯đ൞֤ԛ֥ࢲંҵљޓ(1)ࠎႿಆअ֥aӉ௹֥đҩෘ֥൞Ӊ௹न[1]նbႵ֥ಪູದлᇗ֮ܙđႵ֥ಪູದлીޙ߸ੱđၹطؓࣜ࠶эਈ֥؋௹ொܱᇿޓഒđ൞[2]ႵФ֮ܙࠇ؇Ф֮ܙđطႵ֥࣮ᄵіૼPPPؓؓႿᆟکطđॖି۷؟൞ᄸဢಀ᧧؋௹ࣜ࠶ѯđ[3]ದл҂ൡႨbࣉೆ2000୍ၛުđᇏݓ࿐ᆀ၂ϮႨၹՎॖିޓܱྏ߸ੱ֥؋௹ொbႮႿ۷؟ֹሢင[4][5]ERERٚمބBEERٚمؓದлनޙൌ࠽߸ੱࣉႿӉ௹नޙđ෮ၛؓࣜ࠶֥ݖӱބყ௹ᄝࣜ࠶༢ྛ࣮bᆃུ࣮෮ิԛ֥थקದлनޙ߸ੱ֥ᇏ֥ቔႨߎ҂ܔᇗ൪b ંଆѩીႵބൌᆣ࣮ࢲކ֤ޓݺbႵུ࣮Ⴈದ(2)๙ݖླྀᆜٳ༅ট࿙ᅳ߸ੱ֥थקၹ֤ሱлؓૅჭචшൌ࠽߸ੱđ҂ିؓದл߸ੱඣቓэਈ֥࿊ᄴაඔऌൈ؍ૡ్ཌྷܱđ࿊ᄴ֥ൈ؍҂đ[5]ԛሸކࡎbطႵུ࣮ᄵؓದлनޙൌ࠽߸ੱ֤ԛ֥࠹ਈଆࣼ҂đᆃ္߄ਔఃᆟҦᆷ֝ྟb֥थקၹ࿊ᄴֆ၂đᄝંഈಌكඪڛ৯Ġਸ਼ຓႵѩđෙಖࡥჿٚӱ൞ࠎႿࠎЧࣜ࠶ં֝ԛট֥đ[3−4]ུ࣮ᄝൌᆣ࣮ᇏؓದлनޙൌ࠽߸ੱ֥थ൞࠹ਈࣜ࠶ඌܙ࠹ԛট֥ֆ၂ླྀᆜٚӱѩ҂ିඪקၹႨսэਈđ࣮ࢲંಌكॖौྟb ૼࣜ࠶༢گᄖّ֥ঌטࢫࠏᇅđ္ѩીႵࢣൕԛनหљေิԛ֥൞đᄝᆃུ࣮ᇏࠎႿ၂Ϯनޙ֥ޙ߸ੱМު֥ࣜ࠶ࠎЧ૫۲ေᆭࡗ֥ཌྷܱ༢đၹ[6] ࡥჿֆٚӱଆޓ൳ߋ႒bᆃোଆၛWilliamsonՎᆃׄીႵ৳৫֥؟ٚӱࢲܒଆіགྷݺb ֥ࠎЧေनޙ߸ੱંູࠎԤđᄝ၂Ϯनޙં֥ॿࡏ༯ࡹ৫؟ٚӱ֥ࢲܒ߄ଆđಖުࢳԛᄝଽ҆ؽa၂Ϯनޙॿࡏ༯֥ದл ބຓ҆ൈղ֞नޙ่֥ࡱ༯֥߸ੱაࣜ࠶ࠎЧ૫۲ൌ࠽Ⴕི߸ੱொ ၹᆭࡗ֥ֆٚӱݦඔܱ༢đቋު০Ⴈླྀᆜඌҩෘ ԛაࣜ࠶ࠎЧ૫ཌྷ၂ᇁ֥नޙ߸ੱđᆃ္ࣼ൞ྛູन Ч໓ᄎႨ၂Ϯनޙॿࡏ༯؟ٚӱࢲܒଆটҩෘ ൬۠ರ௹ğ2010−03−11Ġྩ߭ರ௹ğ2010−03−30 ࠎࣁཛଢğଲസ࢝ტ๏o૫ཟग़רֆ֥Ӂᇂඌ࣮p(07C299) ቔᆀࡥࢺğᶈ(1979−)đଳđଲནཔದđݱն࿐Ѱൖ࣮ളđᇶေ࣮ٚཟğႋႨࣜ࠶࿐Ġᇫ٦(1985−)đଳđКઐӬದđᇶေ࣮ٚཟğݓ࠽ࣁವĠ֬ᛝᇏ(1980−)đଳđଲᴓਲ਼ದđଲ॓ն࿐ࢃഽđѰൖ࣮ളđᇶေ࣮ٚཟğႋႨ࠹ਈࣜ࠶࿐.
ֻ3௹ ᶈđᇫ٦đ֬ᛝᇏğದлൌ࠽Ⴕི߸ੱ֥؋௹ொiiࠎႿ၂Ϯनޙଆ֥ܙ࠹ 85 ದлൌ࠽Ⴕི߸ੱაӉ௹नޙ߸ੱᆭࡗ֥ொҵbᆃਈb োଆ၇ऌଽຓनޙંটಒק߸ੱ႕ཙၹބथקᄝ҂ॉ੮ҍᆟᆟҦ֥ष٢ऺضථࣜ࠶ଆᇏđॖࠏᇅ, ০Ⴈ৳৫ٚӱቆটࢳनޙ߸ੱbHaqueބ ၛ֤֞Ӂ൧ӆղ֞नޙൈIS౷ཌđ္ࣼ൞ٚӱ(1)đ[7]MontielᄻҐႨোරٚمؓؿᅚᇏݓࡅ֥नޙ߸ੱथൌ࠽০ੱ๙ݖሧ႕ཙൌ࠽Ӂԛđطൌ࠽߸ੱ๙ݖ࣪קࣉྛݖٳ༅bᆃᄝऺضථᇶၬޡܴࣜ࠶ଆ֥ࠎԛ१႕ཙӁԛđٚӱ(1)ّ႘ਔ߸ੱಌ१ބ০ੱಌ१൞Ԥഈđࡆೆުܤྟބభᅑྟყ௹ၹ, ࢲކݓ֥౦ೂޅ႕ཙӁԛಌ१bࡆೆӁԛಌ१֥ᇌުཛіൕӁԛঃࣉྛ၂ק֥טᆜބྩᆞ, ቔູҩෘದлनޙ߸ੱಌ१ؓླԊࠌ൞ᇯ҄טᆜ֥đ֒۽ሧކӉႿ၂௹֥࠹ਈଆbູࢆ֮گᄖྟ, ࣐ॖିࡨഒଆᇏ֥֥ٚൈީđభ௹Ӂԛсಖ႕ཙ֒௹Ӂԛbٚӱ(1)ᇏđε 1,tӱඔਈđູิۚଆ֥ॖौྟ,ٚӱ֥ഡק࣐ॖିՖބεіൕሹླෛࠏԊࠌbٚӱ(2)սіሹ܂۳౷ཌđ2,tӮඃ֥ંbູਔّ႘ࣜ࠶эਈඔऌЧദऎႵ֥ࡆೆ๙ࠊளᅮᇌުཛսіದૌऎႵൡႋྟყ௹֥หหᆘđଆᇏԉٳॉ੮ਔ۲۱эਈ֥ᇌު႕ཙbູਔׄđ߶۴ऌݖಀ֥ࣜဒ҂؎ྩڿሱ֥࠭ყ௹đၹՎ๙ඪૼࠊлᆟҦؓದлൌ࠽Ⴕི߸ੱ֥႕ཙđิۚЧࠊளᅮ߶۴ऌݖಀ֥ᆴ҂؎טᆜđᆃׄଆऎႵުଆ֥ޘҧᆷ֝ၩၬđЧ໓ॉ੮ਔࠊл൧ӆ֥नޙb ܤྟ(backward looking)֥หׄbྟყ௹࿐ஊಪູđЧ໓֥эਈսіაൌ࠽Ӊ௹नޙᆴ֥ொđᆃ൞ູ๙ࠊளᅮੱ൞Ⴎದૌ֥ყ௹थקđطದૌ҂ࣇࣇॉ੮ଆބఃႨ၂ϮनޙଆaFEERଆၛࠣBEERၘႵ֥ࣜ࠶ྐ༏đߎ߶ॉ੮ࣜ࠶эਈໃট֥э߄b֒ଆҩෘनޙ߸ੱ҂ֹ֥ٚb၂ٚ૫đაनޙᆴ֥ದૌಪູ༯၂௹๙ࠊளᅮ߶ഈശൈđࣼ߶ᄝ۽ሧކொ۷ࡆିܔّ႘ԛொ֥؋௹หׄđऎႵ۷ࡆႪਅᇏေ۷֥ۚБԏđၹՎ߶Ч௹๙ࠊளᅮੱ֥ഈ֥ࣜ࠶࿐ݣၬbਸ਼၂ٚ૫đႨ؋௹ொᆴࣉྛܙෘॖᅨbၹՎđٚӱ(2)ᇏᄹࡆਔӑభ၂௹֥ყ௹ෘሰđၛх૧ເ݂֥߭໙ีđऎႵ۷ࡆႪਅ֥࠹หׄbЧଆऎႵభᅑྟ(forward looking)֥หׄbٚӱ(2)ᇏđ໓ࢲܒଆೂ༯ğ սіሹ܂۳ෛࠏԊࠌbٚӱ(3)ॖၛႮࠊлᇶၬ֥ࠊлnnn123ddླٚӱ֤֝֞bਸ਼ຓđႮႿ؋௹ࠊлླऎႵअy=α+βy+βr+βe+ε ∑t11,i−∑2,−∑tiiti3,it−i1,ti==0=0҆טᆜ֥หׄđ෮ၛᄝٚӱ(3)Ⴗшࡆഈਔᇌުሱ݂߭ཛđھٚӱऎႵٳ҃ᇌުଆ֥หׄbٚӱ(4)սі (1) ຓ߸൧ӆ֥नޙđࡆೆሱ݂߭ᇌުཛսіൡႋྟყ௹đnn12s (2) π=α+λπ+λy+λEπ+εt2∑1,it−∑2,3t+12,tt−iൌ࠽߸ੱ۴ऌݖಀᆴࣉྛᇯࡶטᆜbႮܓઙ৯ࡎi=i=0ંॖၛԛЧݓაຓݓ֥๙ࠊளᅮᆭҵथק߸ੱ֥эnnn123dd߄đၹՎđၛ๙ࠊளᅮᆭҵቔູࢳэਈॉ੮ਔݓ࠽m=α+θm+θy+θr+ε 3∑1∑∑t,1,t−i1,t−i3,tt−ii===൬ᆦᇏӁ൧ӆ֥नޙbႮ০ੱࡎॖᆩđٚӱ(4)ᇏࡆೆਆݓ০ҵၛّ႘Чݓݓ࠽൬ᆦᇏሧЧ൧ӆ֥न (3) nn12ޙbႮႿᇏݓሧЧ൧ӆ҂ປಆष٢đ෮ၛđ০ੱࡎ* e=α+γe+γ(π−π)+4∑1∑t,t−i−2,t−it−it−i҂ቀၛࢳ߸ੱಌ१bطႮႿࣜ࠶ॹؿᅚ֥ᇏݓऎi=0i=0n3Ⴕ٤ӈׅ֥Balassa-Samuelsonིႋđܓઙ৯ࡎ҂** γ(r−r)+γ(Eπ−Eπ)+∑3,t−it−it−i4tt+1t+1ປಆӮ৫bၹՎđᆃϜؽᆀࢲކఏটॉҳđᆃׄi=0ھٚӱऎႵྛູनޙ֥หbࡆೆᇌުෘሰіૼໃট*γ(ErE (4) −r)+ε5tt+1tt+14,t߸ੱಌ१֥э߄౼थႿದૌ֥భᅑྟყ௹b֒ᆀᆭsdm=m (5) ࡗթᄝ໗ק֥ܱ༢֥ൈީđЧ໓ಪູຓ߸൧ӆղdsy=y (6) ֞नޙbٚӱ(5)սіࠊл൧ӆ֥नޙđٚӱ(6)սіӁ ൧ӆ֥नޙđؽᆀ৳৫ࣼॖၛ֤֞ሹླٚӱbᄝଆᇏ۲۱ژݼ֥ݣၬೂ༯ğEູყ௹ෘሰđyЧଆᇏđࡌഡᆟکॖၛ๙ݖ॥ᇅ০ੱބࠊл܂۳ಌູൌ࠽Ӂԛಌ१đπູЧݓ๙ࠊளᅮੱđ*ູຓݓđes१টؓޡܴࣜ࠶ࣉט॥b֒ؽᆀؿളэ߄ൈđӁԛಌູದлൌ࠽Ⴕི߸ੱಌ१đmູൌ࠽ࠊл܂۳ಌd१a๙ࠊளᅮੱބൌ࠽Ⴕི߸ੱಌ१߶ؿളэ߄b१đmູൌ࠽ࠊлླಌ१đrູൌ࠽০ੱđඹ۱ҕᆃࡌഡࠊл܂ႋਈ҂൞ປಆ৫֥đطсྶა০ੱҵཛεٳљ൞ڛՖᆞٳ֥҃ϢᄮലbఃᇏđຓݓэਈaЧݓൌ࠽ࠊл܂۳ބЧݓൌ࠽০ੱđၛࠣЧݓ෮ᆟҦձႨb֒ԛགྷڵ֥Ӂԛಌ१ൈđႋھࢆ֮০Ⴕэਈ֥ᇌުཛ൞ຓളэਈđః֥эਈ൞ଽളэੱđൈᄹࡆࠊл܂ႋਈb
ᇏଲն࿐࿐Б(ഠ߶॓࿐ϱ) ֻ16ज 86 Ч໓൞ᆰࢤؓൌ࠽Ⴕི߸ੱಌ१ࡹଆđၹՎđܙᄝӁԛಌ१b ࠹ԛ֥ൌ࠽Ⴕི߸ੱ֥ொ҂൞ՂեࠎႿࣜ࠶ં֥æ ൮༵ҐႨཌྟ൝ބ࠱ࢫэਈܙෘమᄝӁொ(ᆃᇕٚمᆰࢤܙෘԛनޙ߸ੱ֥धؓਈđಖުҌԛđࢲݔೂٚӱ(7)bDi(i=1, 2, 3)սіֻi࠱؇֥ྴܙෘԛൌ࠽߸ੱ֥ொ)đط൞ࠎႿགྷൌ֥٤नޙࣜ࠶эਈđ္ࣼ൞ඪֻi࠱؇౼ᆴ1đః࠱؇౼ᆴ0bT෮ଽݣ֥ொbЧ໓ଆၩሢđ෮Ⴕࣜ࠶эਈॖսіཌྟ൝ཛđওݼᇏ֥ඔऌіൕؓႋҕඔ֥tၛٳԛӉ௹൝ބ؋௹ѯ(ؓӉ௹֥ொ)ਆ҆࠹ਈbູਔཨԢሱཌྷܱؓଆܙ࠹֥႕ཙđٚӱᇏߎٳđطᆃᇕӉ௹൝൞మᄝ֥नޙሑđط؋௹ѯเࡆ၂ࢨሱ݂߭ᇌުཛđิ౼݂߭ٚӱ֥җҵቔູӁ൞၂ᇕགྷൌ֥٤नޙሑđࣜ࠶༢ᇏनޙሑ൞ԛಌ१b***a **a * ٳљսі1%a5%ބ10%֥ཁٳݨ֥đط؋௹ொಒൌ൞ӈđၹՎЧ໓ሢငႿᇷྟඣđ༯໓b ؋௹߸ੱ֥ொbࣜ࠶༢ᇏ۲ၹ֥؋௹ொ൞ႮY=− 7D− 5D− 3D+ 123ఃཌྷܱࣜ࠶эਈ֥؋௹ொथקđࠇᆀඪႮఃࣜ*********( 7)(− 3)(− 4) ࠶эਈ֥؋௹Ԋࠌथקbᄝ؋௹۲ᇕࣜ࠶эਈᆭࡗ֥ 7T+ 2+[AR(1)= 7] (7) ᆃᇕொ൞ཌྷቔႨaཌྷ႕ཙ֥b০ႨЧଆ********* (− 5)( 7)( 2) ॖၛܙ࠹ԛದлൌ࠽Ⴕི߸ੱაӉ௹नޙ߸ੱᆭࡗR-squared= 2 ֥؋௹ொႵ؟ഒ൞Ⴎࣜ࠶༢Чദ֥؋௹ொथקDW= ֥đႵ؟ഒ൞ႮຓളႿࣜ࠶༢֥ఃෛࠏၹथקç ൮༵ؓൌ࠽GDP֥ؓඔਙđ০ႨHPੲѯ֥đᆃ္൞Ч໓ଆႿఃनޙଆ֥҂ׄb ิ౼൝ཛ(HPੲѯҕඔູ1 600)bھٚمၩሢ ൝ཛॖି҂൞ೂٚمæ෮ࡌഡ֥ପဢ൞ཌྟ֥đطॖaඔऌԩაඔऌඪૼ ିऎႵଽᄝႿሹӁԛ֥սіӉ௹ࣜ࠶ᇛ௹֥Ӊ௹ѯ֥หׄđၹՎᆃᇕܙෘӁԛಌ१֥ٚم۷ࡆކbಖ ުϜൌ࠽Ӂԛ֥ؓඔਙؓ൝ཛބ࠱ࢫྴэਈቓЧ໓Ⴈ֥൞Ֆ1994୍ֻ၂࠱؇֞2008୍ֻඹ݂߭đၛ݂߭ٚӱ֥җҵቔູӁԛಌ१b ࠱؇֥ඔऌbࠎႿCPI֥ൌ࠽Ⴕི߸ੱᆷඔটჷႿ Y= 3Y_hp− 6D− 3D− ୍֥uݓ࠽ࣁವ࠹୍vb1994୍ၛభđᇏૅචш12*********( 4)(− 0)(− 6) ߸ੱྙӮࠏᇅඋႿࢲܒэൔ֥ྛᆟקࡎଆൔbႮႿ 1D+ 3 (8) 3ᇏૅචш߸ੱᄝႵི߸ੱᇏ֥ಃᇗቋնđ෮ၛ҂ၒҐ****** (− 0)( 1) Ⴈ1994୍ၛభ֥Ⴕི߸ੱটҩෘႵི߸ੱ֥ொbຓR-squared= 4 ݓ֥эਈႨૅݓ֥ඔऌቔูູսbૅݓބᇏݓ֥קDW= ࠎбཨٮࡎᆷඔđݓଽളӁሹᆴགྷࡎၬᆴ֩ః ෮ႵඔऌটჷႿBvDඔऌ९bࠊл܂ႋਈ࿊ႨMđ2è ൮༵Ϝ౼ؓඔު֥ൌ࠽GDPਙ০ႨX֥11ၹູЇݣଽಸܼٗđႮᆜ۱ၿྛ༢֥ሹሧӁथקđٚمࣉྛ࠱ࢫטᆜđಖުϜ֤֥֞ਙႨHPੲѯิّ႘ਔࠊлթਈ֥Ӊ௹э߄đၹՎбMऎႵ۷ݺ֥౼ᇛ௹ཛđ֤ࠧ֞ൌ࠽GDPಌ१b 1ࣜ࠶ݣၬb০ੱႨ֥൞௹ଌ၂୍௹վॻ০ੱđ၂ٚé ϜЧ௹౼ؓඔު֥ൌ࠽GDPࡨಀಀ୍௹֥૫აሧܱ༢۷ࡆࣅૡđਸ਼၂ٚ૫ᆟکؓః॥ᇅ֥ᆴđ֤֞ൌ࠽ݓଽളӁሹᆴ֥бᄹӉੱđၹՎ࠱ࢫӱ؇ჹჹӑݖြҷࢹ০ੱࠇᆀݓᅏ০ੱđၹՎ۷ିၹၘࣜФัԢbᄜϜ֤֥֞ਙႨHPੲѯัԢุགྷᆟҦэਈ֥ݣၬbЧݓ๙ࠊளᅮੱ֩ႿЧ௹ཨٮ൝ཛᆭުđࡼఃቔູӁԛಌ१ู֥սэਈb ࡎᆷඔ֥ؓඔᆴࡨಀಀ୍௹ཨٮࡎᆷඔ֥ؓඔϜഈඍ4ᇕٚم෮ܙ࠹ԛট֥Ӂԛಌ१Ӯ1bᆴbຓݓ๙ࠊளᅮੱ္Ґ౼ཌྷٚمԩbૅݓ০ੱؓбॖၛؿགྷđ4ᇕ҂ٚمܙ࠹֥Ӂԛಌ१൞၂ᇁ֥đࠫެൈղ֞ѯڂބѯܡbٚمæބçܙ࠹֥Ӂ࿊Ⴈ֥൞৳Ϲࠎࣁ০ੱbϜ෮Ⴕၛࠊліൕ֥ၬਈԛಌ१ѯږ؇ቋնđطીႵປಆཨԢ࠱ࢫၹ֥Ⴈקࠎбཨٮࡎᆷඔࣉྛࡨđಖު౼ؓඔ(০ੱ႕ཙđطٚمèܙ࠹֥ѯږ؇ཬđߎ҂ቀၛّ႘ބ๙ࠊளᅮੱԢຓ)đѩႨX֥ٚمࣉྛ࠱ࢫטᆜđ11ॹᄹӉ֥ᇏݓࣜ࠶֥ѯหᆘđ෮ၛЧ໓࿊Ⴈٚمఃᇏᇗေэਈ֥ԩݖӱೂ༯b ႮႿӁԛಌ१ؓଆ֥ܙෘࢲݔܱ༢ᇗնđطé֥ܙ࠹ࢲݔđطᆃᇕٚمࣜ࠶ݣၬૼಒđ္҂ᇀࣜ࠶ݣၬ္หљᇗေđ෮ၛЧ໓൮༵Ⴈ҂ٚمؓႿඔऌၹູቓਔݖ؟эߐطാఃଽᄝྐ༏b ൌ࠽ݓଽളӁሹᆴ֥ؓඔᆴࣉྛԩđܙෘԛᆇൌమൌ࠽Ⴕི߸ੱᆷඔᄝ౼ਔؓඔުđ০ႨHPੲѯ
ֻ3௹ ᶈđᇫ٦đ֬ᛝᇏğದлൌ࠽Ⴕི߸ੱ֥؋௹ொiiࠎႿ၂Ϯनޙଆ֥ܙ࠹ 87 ֥t࠹ਈđіൕ݂߭ٚӱҗҵ֥ѓሙҵb π= 1π 7π+ 6y (11) tt−1t−2t−1*********( 4)(− 2)( 2) R-squared= 5 DW= 6 .= 4 y=− 6y (12) tt−3t−2t−3******(− 6) (− 7) (− 8) R-squared= 6 1 Ӂԛಌ१ DW= 9 .= 9 ิ౼ᇛ௹ཛđቔູఃؓӉ௹नޙᆴ֥ொbࠊл܂ႋ m= 8r+ 6m (13) ਈM༵ႨקࠎбཨٮࡎᆷඔࣉྛࡨđಖުႨtt−2t−2t−12*********( 4) (− 6) ( 1) Xࣉྛ࠱ࢫטᆜđቋުႨHPੲѯิ౼؋௹ᇛ௹ཛቔ11R-squared= 8 ູൌ࠽ࠊл܂ႋਈಌ१֥ܙ࠹bဢđൌ࠽Ⴕི߸ੱDW= 6 ಌ१္ॖၛႨཌྷٚم֤֞b .= 3 *e= 9(r−)+ 9e− ttt−1ඹaٚӱ֥ൌᆣٳ༅ *****( 5) ( 0) * 0(Eπ−Eπ) (14) t−2t+1t+1*****(၂) (− 2) (− 5) ଆܙ࠹ R-squared= 1 ൮༵ႨADF֥ٚمؓ෮Ⴕэਈࣉྛֆ໊۴DW= 6 ဒđဒіૼัԢו࠱ࢫၹބ൝ཛᆭު֥۲۱эਈ൞໗֥đପહؓ৳৫ٚӱቆࣉྛܙ࠹ൈࣼ҂߶.= 4 ԛགྷoເ݂߭p֥໙ีb Ֆܙ࠹ࢲݔᇏॖၛुԛૄ۱эਈᄝ10%֥ཁᇷྟؓႿЧݓ֥ყ௹эਈđႮႿ൞ଽളႿଆЧദ֥đඣ༯൞ࠇᆭ֥đૄ۱ٚӱ֥ކႪ؇൞бࢠݺđ෮ၛॖၛᆰࢤႨӑభ၂௹֥эਈูսđಖުࣉೆܙ࠹ଆԉٳ֤ิ౼ਔэਈ֥ྐ༏đѩԉٳّ႘ਔඔऌ֥ٚӱ࠹ෘbྟყ௹ಪູđದૌؓࣜ࠶эਈ֥ყ௹൞ളӮݖӱbਸ਼ຓđՖଆᇏิ౼ૄ۱ٚӱ֥җҵđՖ০Ⴈ෮Ⴕཌྷܱྐ༏ؓໃটھࣜ࠶эਈൌགྷᆴ֥ொܙҗҵ֥ሱཌྷܱބொཌྷܱᇏॖၛुԛđ෮Ⴕ֥ٚӱ࠹đ൞ھࣜ࠶эਈ֥௹ຬđၹՎႵႮಪູყ௹эਈ֥җҵၘࣜ҂թᄝሱཌྷܱ֥໙ีb4۱ٚӱ֥җҵ֥აӑభ၂௹֥ࣜ࠶эਈᆭࡗࣇࣇཌྷҵ၂۱ϢᄮലđᆃJB࠹ਈٳљ൞đؓႋ֥PᇕϢᄮലࠇෛࠏ༂ҵ҂߶ٚӱ֥ܙ࠹Ӂള༢ྟ༂ᆴٳљ൞đ္ࣼ൞ඪॖၛࢤ൳ҵbՖਸ਼၂۱࢘؇টඪđЧ໓ࡌഡЧݓყ௹൞ଆ၂җҵ൞ڛՖᆞٳ֥҃ჰࡌഡbਸ਼ຓđٚӱҗҵᆭࡗᇁྟ(Model consistent expectations)đପહࣼॖၛႨܙ֥ཌྷܱ༢ඔٳљ൞−− − 0a࠹ٚӱႷш֥ؓႋэਈ֥ܙ࠹ਈูսھყ௹ଽളэ− 5a− 9đᆃඪૼ4۱ٚӱᆭࡗ֥ཌྷܱܱ༢ਈđೂݔܙ࠹ٚӱ֥ҕҵ൞҂ཌྷܱ֥đѩڛՖᆞ҂൞หљཁᇷ֥bਸ਼ຓđՖ4۱ٚӱҗҵ֥ሱཌྷܱaٳ҃đପહႵႮಪູଆ၂ᇁྟყ௹֥ࡌഡ൞ᆞಒொཌྷܱđၛࠣQ࠹ਈॖၛुԛđᆃ4۱җҵਙ֥b ҂թᄝሱཌྷܱބொཌྷܱ֥໙ีbᆃུඪૼđ০Ⴈ๙ࠊࡌഡ෮Ⴕ֥ၘᆩྐ༏აଆᇏ֥җҵ൞҂ཌྷܱளᅮੱӑభ၂௹֥ᆴቔູఃყ௹эਈ֥ᆴ൞ॖौ֥b ֥đପહھ৳৫ٚӱቆଆॖၛႨGMM֥ٚمࣉսі٣০௴ථ౷ཌ֥ٚӱ(11)ᇏѩીႵႄೆყ௹ྛܙ࠹đ۽ऎэਈູ๙ࠊளᅮaࠊл܂۳aൌ࠽߸ੱෘሰཛđᆃᇶေ൞ၹູႄೆުଆ֥ޓ؟ҕඔ҂൞ޓಌ१aӁԛಌ१aਆݓ০ҵބਆݓ๙ࠊளᅮᆭҵ֥၂ཁᇷđطଆ֥ކႪ؇҂൞ޓնđᆃඪૼսіࢨᇌު௹bؓႿٚӱ֥ᇌުཛđ࿖Ֆگᄖ֞ࡥൡႋྟყ௹֥ᇌުэਈቀၛุགྷ๙ࠊளᅮ֥э߄ֆđՖ၂Ϯ֞ห൹֥ࡹଆݖӱđ৯ၛቋഒ֥эਈૄ۱ٚӱ֥ކႪ؇ղ֞ቋնđൈࣜ࠶ݣၬૼಒbݖӱbՖھٚӱॖၛुԛđభ௹ᆞ֥Ӂԛಌ१ିܔ֝ଆܙ࠹ࢲݔೂ༯đఃᇏওݼᇏ֥ඔऌіൕܙ࠹ҕඔᇁཟ֥๙ࠊளᅮಌ१đ๙ࠊளᅮಌ१ؓൌ࠽Ӂԛ֥
ᇏଲն࿐࿐Б(ഠ߶॓࿐ϱ) ֻ16ज 88 ྟ൞ 7đᆃඪૼࡎ۬ᅔྟ෮֝ᇁ֥ࠊлߘतི ႋᄝ؋௹൞թᄝ֥b ՖսіIS౷ཌ֥ٚӱ(12)ᇏॖၛुԛđЧ௹Ӂԛಌ१ؓᇌު௹֥Ӂԛಌ१֥טᆜ༢ඔ൞− 6đᆃඪૼೂݔЧ௹Ӂള1%֥ᆞཟӁԛொđପહ௹ၛުࡼӁള 6%֥ڵཟӁԛொҵđପહෛࠏԊࠌؓӁԛಌ१֥႕ཙ߶ෛሢൈࡗ֥Ӊ൬৻֞ਬđѩᆃᇕ൬৻֥؇൞бࢠॹ֥bᆃԉٳّ႘ਔሹӁԛ֥؋௹ᇛ௹ѯ෮ऎႵ֥ᆑ֕൬৻֥หྟၛࠣࣜ࠶༢Чദ෮ऎႵ֥໗קྟbՖھٚӱ္ॖၛؿགྷđӁԛಌ१ؓ߸ੱಌ१ّ֥ႋૹۋ؇ӑݖ০ੱಌ१đၹູؓభ 2 ൌ࠽Ⴕི߸ੱொ ᆀ֥ྟ− 2֥धؓᆴնႿؓުᆀ֥ྟᆴ − 4bݓӉ௹ൌྛԛ१֝ཟ֥ࣜ࠶ᅞđ1994୍સၞ၇թ؇൞%đ֞2008୍ۚղ%đᆃඪૼຓસ҆ؓᇏݓࣜ࠶ᄹӉ֥႕ཙऍնbطᇏݓԛ१҆ԩႿݓ࠽Ӂြٳ۽֥֮؊ߌࢫđؓದлശᆴหљૹۋđ෮ၛದлശᆴؓؓݓࣜ࠶֥႕ཙбࢠնbط་൬ၿྛն҆ٳվॻ֥ݓႵఒြؓ০ੱൌ࠽ഈ҂൞หљૹۋ֥đၹՎվॻ০ੱؓࣜ࠶֥႕ཙॖିѩ҂൞ޓնbٚӱ(13)սіࠊлླٚӱđھٚӱіૼࠊлླಌ१ؓഈ௹֥טᆜ༢ඔղ֞ 6đؓӁԛ֥ಌ१ّ֥ႋൈᇌބ০ੱ֥ཌྷđ൞бؓ০ੱّ֥ႋ۷खਛbٚӱ(14)ඪૼ߸ੱಌ१ؓਆݓ০ҵّ֥ႋྟ ղ֞ 9đؓ๙ࠊளᅮభᅑყ௹֥ྟղ ֞ 3 नޙൌ࠽Ⴕི߸ੱ − 0đطؓ০ੱభᅑყ௹ّ֥ႋ൞҂ཁᇷ֥bൌ ࠽߸ੱᇌު၂௹ّ֥ႋ༢ඔބᇌުਆ௹ّ֥ႋ༢ඔٳնொ൞2008୍ֻඹ࠱؇֥%đᆃඪૼದлശљղ֞ 9a− 8đᆃ၂ٚ૫ّ႘ದлൌ࠽ᆴ؇ݖॹđᆃაݓࣁವາࠏԊࠌ༯֥ࣜ࠶ක҂Ⴕི߸ੱࠞऎᬪྟđऎႵޓ఼֥ሱ݂֥߭หᆘb ཌྷླྀטb2008୍ඹ۱࠱؇ದлൌ࠽Ⴕི߸ੱٳљശ(ؽ) ದлൌ࠽Ⴕི߸ੱொҵ ᆴ%%%%(ೂ7)đطཌྷႋ֥ಌ१ؓٚӱ(11)֞ٚӱ(14)෮ቆӮ֥৳৫ٚӱቆđࡆഈ൞%%%%đପહॖၛಪູᆃඹ۱ޚ֩ൔ(5)ބ(6)đॖၛࡹ৫ଆѩࣉطࢳԛದлൌ࠱؇नޙ߸ੱ֥ေႋھ൞ശᆴ%đъᆴ%đ࠽Ⴕི߸ੱொҵđࢲݔೂ2bϜభ໓ದлൌ࠽Ⴕъᆴ%đъᆴ%đᆃა−%a−%a−%ི߸ੱᆷඔ֥ؓඔਙႨHPੲѯิ౼൝ཛđಖުၛࠣ%֥ൌ࠽Ӂԛಌ१൞ཌྷ၂ᇁ֥bਸ਼ຓđՖ4Ϝ൝ཛࡆഈଆܙ࠹ԛ֥ൌ࠽Ⴕི߸ੱொҵđᄜ౼ᇏॖၛुԛದлؓૅჭ֥ၬ߸ੱശᆴ؇൞҂؎ؓඔّ֥ݦඔđॖၛ֤֞नޙ֥ൌ࠽Ⴕི߸ੱᆷඔđ༯ࢆ֥đѩ2008୍ֻඹ࠱؇ཬږъᆴĠطՖ5ೂ3b ॖၛुԛđࣉԛ१aࣉ१aބԛ१ᄅбᄹ൞ႿՖ1994୍ֻ၂࠱؇֞2008୍ֻඹ࠱؇đ60۱࠱༯ࢆ֥đหљ൞ᄝ2008୍11a12ᄅٺބ2009୍୍Ԛđ؇ᇏႵ47۱࠱؇ൌ࠽Ⴕི߸ੱ֥࠱؇ொ҂ӑݖ۱эਈ֥ᄹ൞ڵඔbପહॖၛ؎ದлъᆴ2%đᆃᄝޓնӱ؇ഈᆣૼᄝ؋௹ࡶࣉശᆴ൞ᆞಒ֥ᆟ֥ږ؇ބ؇൞҂ܔ֥đᆺႵದл۷ॹֹъᆴҌିҦbࣜ࠶༢֥ؓ؋௹ொބԊࠌླေ၂۱טᆜބཨՏࠗකࣜ࠶߭֞नޙb ߄֥ݖӱđପહაᆭཌྷൡႋ֥ದл߸ੱಌ१္ࣼс() ᆟҦؓದлൌ࠽Ⴕི߸ੱ֥႕ཙ ྶᇯࡶטᆜđڎᄵࣼ߶֝ᇁ۷ն֥Ӂԛಌ१ބ۷఼ਛ০Ⴈഈ໓ࡹ৫֥ࡥֆޡܴࣜ࠶ଆđЧ໓ؓ2008֥ࣜ࠶ѯb60۱࠱؇ᇏԛགྷ֥ቋཬொ൞2005୍୍ֻ၂࠱؇֞2008୍ֻඹ࠱؇ิۚ০ੱ֥ᆟҦིႋֻ࠱؇֥%đᆃඪૼ2005୍7ᄅದлაૅჭࣉྛଆđᆃҐႨ౦ࣟٳ༅֥ٚمb౦ࣟٳ༅ॖၛ֥චш߸ੱՖ؎ܙ࠹֥ࣜ࠶ଆ൞ڎژކޡܴࣜ࠶ંđ္ॖၛ ശᆴ֞൞ཌྷ֒Ӯۿ֥đطቋ
ֻ3௹ ᶈđᇫ٦đ֬ᛝᇏğದлൌ࠽Ⴕི߸ੱ֥؋௹ொiiࠎႿ၂Ϯनޙଆ֥ܙ࠹ 89 6 ၂୍௹վॻ০ੱ 4 ߸ੱ࠱؇ശᆴੱ 7 ০ੱטᆜؓൌ࠽Ⴕི߸ੱಌ१႕ཙ і1 ০ੱࢆ֮۱Ϥٳׄൈ߸ੱಌ१э߄ 5 ࣉԛ१бᄹ ߸ੱ Ӂԛ ๙ࠊ ࠊлླൈࡗ ಌ१ ಌ१ ளᅮੱ ಌ१ؓ۲ᇕᆟکᆟҦࣉྛקਈٳ༅bႮႿ2008୍֥Ӂԛಌ2008Q1 − 40 0 0 १൞ڵඔđ෮ၛҐႨঔᅦྟ֥ࠊлᆟҦࣉྛଆđ2008Q2 − 60 0 0 ࠧࢆ֮০ੱބᄹࡆࠊл܂ႋਈb౦ࣟ1(і1)ğࡌഡ2008Q3 − 96 0 1ൌ࠽০ੱಌ१༯ࢆ۱Ϥٳׄđପહ2008୍ֻ၂2008Q4 − 48 23 5࠱؇ֻ֞ඹ࠱؇ൌ࠽০ੱಌ१Ֆ− 6a− 2a − 8эӮ− 96a− 8aі2 ০ੱࢆ֮1۱Ϥٳׄൈ߸ੱಌ१э߄ 3bൌ࠽ഈᆟک҂ିᆰࢤטᆜൌ࠽০ੱಌ१đط߸ੱ Ӂԛ ๙ࠊ ࠊлླൈࡗ ᆺିᆰࢤטᆜၬ০ੱb൞ՖЧ໓๙ࠊளᅮٚӱॖಌ१ ಌ१ ளᅮੱ ಌ१ၛुԛđ๙ࠊளᅮऎႵૼཁ֥ᅔᇌ֥หׄđၹՎ൞ᇯ2008Q1 − 60 0 0 ࡶa৵࿃טᆜэ߄֥đ൞Ч໓Ⴈ֥ၬ၂୍௹2008Q2 − 20 0 0 ၬվॻ০ੱ൞ࢨะሑ֥(ೂ6)đၹՎఃэ߄൞ࡗ؎2008Q3 − 8 0 5֥a๋ᄁ֥bପહᄝ؋௹ॖၛಪູၬ০ੱॖၛؿള2008Q4 − 9 9 2ටࡗ๋ᄁđطՎൈ๙ࠊளᅮੱಏэ߄҂൞ޓնbਸ਼ຓđ ᄝᆃ۱ޓ؋֥ൈࡗ؍ॖၛಪູ০ੱ֥Ӊ௹नޙඣႵ۱࠱؇֥ᇌު௹b০ੱ֥ࢆ֮ൌ࠽Ⴕི߸ੱ༯ીႵޓնэ߄đପહॖၛಪູ؋௹ଽൌ࠽০ੱ֥ಌ१ࢆđࠧದлъᆴđൈڵӁԛಌ१ࡨഒđ๙ࠊளᅮࣼ֩Ⴟᆟکؓၬ০ੱ֥ටࡗטᆜਈb౦ࣟ2(і2)ğੱᄹࡆđ؋௹ࠊлླᄹࡆb֒০ੱ༯ࢆ၂۱Ϥٳׄࡌഡൌ࠽০ੱಌ१༯ࢆ1۱ϤٳׄđэӮ− 6a ൈđູਔކࠊлླ֥ᄹࡆđࠊл܂۳ಌ१сྶᄝ− 8bՖ౦ࣟٳ༅ᇏॖၛुԛđ2008୍ֻބֻඹ࠱؇ٳљᄹࡆ 5ބ 2۱Ӂԛؓ০ੱّ֥ႋႵਆ۱࠱؇֥ᇌު௹đط๙ࠊளᅮ Ϥٳׄb
ᇏଲն࿐࿐Б(ഠ߶॓࿐ϱ) ֻ16ज 90 ದлശᆴ҄قđ္ॖၛࡨഒڵ֥Ӂԛಌ१đႵ০Ⴟࣜ࠶ሼԛཡ่b aࢲં ҕॉ໓ངğ Ч໓ႨGMM֥ٚمؓڸࡆყ௹֥৳৫ٚӱቆଆ ࣉྛܙ࠹đّ֤֞႘ᇏݓޡܴࣜ࠶؋௹ொ֥IS౷[1] Frankel, Jeffrey. On the Yuan: The Choice between adjustment under a fixed exchange rate and adjustment under a flexible ཌaAS౷ཌaࠊлླٚӱၛࠣຓ߸൧ӆྛູनޙٚrate[C]. Paper presented to IMF Seminar on “The Foreign ӱđ࣮ؿགྷğ Exchange System.” Dalian China, 2004: 26−27. (1) ყ௹ؓႿࣜ࠶༢֥ொऎႵᇗေ֥ቔႨđ[2] ᮠབ഻, ဗᎯ. ದлनޙ߸ੱܙ࠹ii҂ٚم֥бࢠ[J]. ؓႿ๙ࠊளᅮੱ֥ྙӮđყ௹նჿॖၛࢳ%֥ܵં, 2003, 15(8): 45−49. ๙ࠊளᅮੱđطؓႿ߸ੱಌ१đყ௹๙ࠊளᅮੱૄഈ[3] ᅦཫ௲. ದлनޙ߸ੱ࣮[M]. Кࣘ: ᇏݓࣁವԛϱഠ, ശ1۱Ϥٳׄđದлൌ࠽Ⴕི߸ੱಌ१ࣼ߶༯ࢆ2001. ۱Ϥٳׄbਸ਼ຓđࣜ࠶эਈ֥؋௹ொᆭࡗ֥ᇌ[4] ᅦќ. ದлनޙ߸ੱ: ࡥჿ၂Ϯनޙ༯֥ֆٚӱଆ࣮ުّႋ൞หљૼཁ֥đೂ০ੱᄝᇌު௹ᆭުҌିܔ[J]. ൗࢸࣜ࠶, 2003, (11): 3−12. ؓӁԛಌ१ؿളቔႨđطЧ௹๙ࠊளᅮੱ၇ಖ߶ؓ༯[5] ਾဝ. ದлनޙ߸ੱࠣ߸ੱ[J]. ࣜ࠶॓࿐, 2004, (1): 83−92. ၂௹๙ࠊளᅮੱӁള႕ཙđᆃႆᆣਔࣜ࠶эਈᆭࡗ֥[6] Williamson J. The Exchange Rate System [M]. Washington DC: ཌྷቔႨb Institute for Intervention for Canada [J]. Journal of International (2) ᄝဢЧ௹ࡗଽ%֥࠱؇ದлൌ࠽ႵིEconomics, 1995, (39): 273−295. ߸ੱ֥ொҵ҂ӑݖ2%đᆃඪૼದлൌ࠽Ⴕི߸ੱ[7] Haque N U, Montiel P J. Long-Run Real Exchange Rate changes ൞бࢠ໗ק֥đᆃᄝޓնӱ؇ഈᆣૼದлࡶࣉശᆴin Developing Countries: Simulations from an Econometric ֥Ҧ൞ᆞಒ֥b2008୍ֻඹ࠱؇ದлൌ࠽Ⴕི߸Model [C]. In Lawrence Hinkel and Peter J. Montiel, Eds., ੱԛགྷ%֥ᆞಌ१đᆃඪૼದлശᆴ؇ݖॹđExchange Rate Misalignment: Concepts and Measurement for ᆃა2008୍֥ࣜ࠶ක൞҂ླྀט֥bਸ਼ຓđᆟҦଆDeveloping Countries. New York: The World Bank, 1999: 382−402. ࢲݔཁൕ2008୍ֻ၂࠱؇֞2008୍ֻඹ࠱؇đࣉ ၂҄ࢆ֮০ੱđѩൈᄹࡆࠊл܂۳đॖၛႵི٢ߏ Short-run misalignment of RMB real effective exchange rate: estimation based on general dynamic equilibrium models 111, 2LI Xin, ZHU Longfei, DENG Qizhong (1. Economics and Management School, Wuhan University, Wuhan 430072, China; 2. Management of school, Hunan University of Science and Technology, Xiangtan 411201, China) Abstract: Based on the framework of Keynesianism, this paper constructs a structured model of short-run dynamic macroeconomics with expectations. It takes the series including RMB real effective exchange rate from the first season of 1994 to the fourth season of 2008 as the samples, and applies the econometrical method of GMM to estimate the model with full consideration of data generating process and economic and theatrical connotation. The empirical research proves that expectations plays a significant role in the economy, and in most of seasons misalignment of RMB real effective exchange rate is less than 2% and the velocity of appreciation is too faster, which is not suitable for the current economic recession. Therefore, the government should take the policy to decrease the interest rate and increase the monetary supply. Key Words: RMB real effective exchange rate; structured equations model; general equilibrium; GMM [щࠠ ລཫ]
