샮훎맺ꆢ쳆맺탋:놾탎돉슷뺶폫놾듦솿뗷헻쒣탍놾탎돉슷뺶폫놾듦솿뗷헻쒣탍ꆪꆪꆪ믹폚훐맺탍쪱웚뗄럖컶샮훎맺ꆡ쳆맺탋(뢴떩듳톧맜샭톧풺ꆡ200433)ꆡꆡ쓚죝쳡튪:놾컄ퟛ뫏뾼달쇋컒맺짺닺탔놾뗄ퟜ솿쮮욽ꆢ탎돉슷뺶벰웤뗷헻믺훆ꆣ춨맽룄뷸뗄랽램쯹맀쯣뗄놾듦솿퓚룄룯뾪럅틔살틑뺭랭쇋늻횹솽랬,쓪욽뻹퓶뎤싊캪7136%,믽샛벫캪톸쯙ꆣ놾탎돉슷뺶쏷쿔럖캪솽룶뷗뛎,퓶솿룄룯췆뚯뗄엤훃킧싊룄뷸쪹놾ꆪ닺돶뇈싊퓚1994쓪횮잰돖탸쿂붵,뛸뷼쓪살뗄놾탎돉맽뿬쫇평폚뺭볃퓶뎤풽살풽틐훘놾짮뮯,뇘탫춨맽좫랽캻뷡릹뗷헻볓뿬탍뷸돌ꆣ놾컄뷸튻늽룸돶쇋컒맺탍웚놾듦솿뗷헻뗄릩쟳뻶뚨뿲볜,쪵횤뷡맻뇭쏷,탨쟳떼쿲뗄놾듦솿뗷헻믺훆뫍춶탐캪틑뺭퓚훐맺뗄탍뺭볃훐믹놾탎돉,닺돶쮮욽폫놾돉놾뻹캪놾뗷헻폫춶탨쟳뗄훷튪뻶뚨틲쯘ꆣ맘볼듊:놾듦솿ꆡ놾탎돉ꆡ놾듦솿뗷헻쒣탍ꆡ탍놾뗄톸쯙믽샛쫇훐맺ퟮ뷼20쓪살뺭볃룟쯙퓶뎤뗄튻룶훷튪풴좪,늢쟒쯦ퟅ맺폐웳튵짮죫룄룯뫍럇맺폐뺭볃뇈샽짏짽,쾡좱놾컞킧엤훃뗄쿖쿳훰붥복짙ꆣ탭뛠뺭볃랢듯맺볒뗄춳볆늿쏅뻹뛔놾듦솿뗷닩뫋쯣늢뚨웚릫늼,죕놾뮹퓋폃듳맦쒣닺웕닩뗄랽램횱뷓닢쯣놾듦솿ꆣ쓇쎴,죧뫎룹뻝쿖폐춳볆쫽뻝살맀쯣훐맺뗄놾듦솿?훐맺뗄놾탎돉폫뺭볃퓶뎤좡뗃쇋춬퇹믔믍뗄돉뻍,놾뛔닺돶뗄릱쿗틑뺭ퟷ캪튻룶벫캪훘튪뗄(짵훁ퟮ훘튪뗄)틲쯘뛸놻맣랺죏춬ꆣ뛸듓쇭튻룶뷇뛈살뾴,훐맺뗄뺭볃퓶뎤폖뺭뎣폃뺭볃ꆰ탍ꆱ(transition)헢튻룅쓮뷸탐뷢쫍,훐맺뗄짧믡훷틥뺭볃뗄좷퓚뺭샺ퟅ듓볆뮮뺭볃쿲쫐뎡뺭볃탍뗄맽돌,뺭볃쳥쾵ꆢ쫐뎡믺훆뫍훆뛈뇤잨뚼쏷쿔듦퓚탍뗄뫛벣ꆣ쓇쎴,훐맺뗄놾듦솿폫닺돶쮮욽헢튻훘튪맘쾵죧뫎랴펳퓚뺭볃탍슷뺶횮짏?맘폚훐맺놾톸쯙믽샛쿖쿳뗄튻냣탔뷢쫍쫇,훐맺뎤웚캬돖쇋뷏룟뗄춶싊쮮욽,뷏룟뗄닺돶뇈샽폖놻솢벴뮯캪놾춶죫,퓚닺돶돖탸룟퓶뎤뗄쟩뿶쿂,춶죫뗄놾쪵쿖쇋룟퓶뎤틔벰톸쯙뗄믽샛ꆣ헢쫇듓릩룸뗄뷇뛈,틔춶뗄뷰살풴뛔놾탎돉룸폨뷢쫍ꆣ떫쫇,쯦ퟅ훐맺뺭볃평릩룸떼쿲쿲탨쟳떼쿲뗄탍,뺭볃훷쳥훰붥틀뻝샻죳ꆪ돉놾풭퓲뛔춶탐캪뷸탐ퟔ훷뻶닟,놾뗄쓚퓚뗷헻뚯믺훰붥쿲탨쟳튻랽,틢풸놾듦솿폫쿖폐놾듦솿횮볤뗄닮뻠헽퓚돉캪펰쿬춶탐캪뗄튻룶훘튪틲쯘ꆣ쓇쎴,훐맺뗄놾듦솿떽뗗쫇죧뫎뷸탐뗷헻뗄?헢튻놾듦솿뗷헻믺훆폖쫇퓵퇹뻶뚨탍웚춶탐캪뗄쓘?튻ꆢ놾듦솿뗄맀쯣벰웤랽램룄뷸놾듦솿쫇횸튻뚨쪱뗣쿂낲ힰ퓚짺닺떥캻훐놾닺뗄쫽솿,튻냣폃살뛈솿짺닺맽돌훐뗄놾춶죫,훷튪쫇뻍만뚨닺뛸퇔뗄ꆣ맀쯣내늻뇤볛룱볆쯣뗄(믲쪵볊뗄)놾듦솿뗄믹놾풭샭쫇,떱웚쪵볊놾듦솿평짏웚쪵볊놾듦솿폫떱웚쪵볊뺻춶솽늿럖릹돉:Kt=Kt-1+RNIt(1)34' 1994-2010 China Academic Journal Electronic Publishing House. All rights reserved.
2003쓪뗚2웚웤훐,K쫇쪵볊놾듦솿,RNI쫇쪵볊뺻춶ꆣ횻튪릹붨돶룷웚뗄쪵볊뺻춶탲쇐,늢짨뚨믹웚뗄쪵볊놾듦솿,뻍뿉틔뗃떽쪵볊놾듦솿탲쇐쇋ꆣ뫘뻕믍(1992)뷏퓧뛔훐맺뗄짺닺탔놾(벴놾듦솿)틔벰럇짺닺탔닺뷸탐쇋맀쯣,룃랽램훷튪틀뻝떱쪱뮹퓚릫늼뗄믽샛횸쫽,떫쫇,쯦ퟅ맺볒춳볆늿쏅폚1994쓪뛔맺쏱쫕죫뫋쯣쳥쾵뷸탐탞뚩,믽샛횸쫽탲쇐늻퓙릫늼ꆣퟞ훁(Chow,1993;2000)믹폚맺쏱쫕죫뫋쯣풭샭,룹뻝GDP횧돶램(GDP=쿻럑+ퟜ춶+닺욷뫍럾컱뗄뺻돶뿚),쿈췆쯣돶쪵볊쿻럑뫍쪵볊뺻돶뿚,퓙듓쪵볊GDP훐뿛돽헢솽쿮,듓뛸뗃떽쪵볊ퟜ춶,퓙붫쪵볊ퟜ춶돋틔떱쓪볛룱뗄뺻춶폫ퟜ춶뗄뇈싊,뻍뗃떽쪵볊뺻춶ꆣ췵킡슳뫍랮룙(2000)룸돶뗄맀쯣랽램쫇,틔만뚨닺춶볛룱쫽뛔쏻틥뺻춶헛쯣뗄랽램뛸볆쯣쪵볊뺻춶,쏻틥뺻춶평쏻틥ퟜ춶뿛돽헛뻉뗃떽:RNIt=NItΠPIFt=(GI-DS)tΠPIF(t2)웤훐,NI쫇쏻틥뺻춶,GI쫇쏻틥ퟜ춶,DS쫇쏻틥헛뻉,PIF쫇만뚨닺춶볛룱횸쫽ꆣ틔췹맀쯣랽램뗄튻룶훷튪헹틩쫇죧뫎붫떱쓪볛룱뗄뺻춶헛쯣돉쪵볊횵ꆣ뫘뻕믍(1992)춨맽믽샛횸쫽뛸뇜뾪쇋쯼,떫쫇평폚쒿잰늻퓙릫늼믽샛횸쫽탲쇐,헢튻랽램튲늻퓙쫊폃ꆣퟞ훁뗈닉폃맺쏱뺭볃뫋쯣랽램살뇜뾪쯼,떫쫇춨맽GDP횧돶램뫋쯣뛸뗃떽뗄춶늻뷶냼몬짺닺떥캻뗄짺닺탔놾춶죫,튲춬쪱냼몬쇋럇짺닺탔늿쏅뗄닺뇤뚯벰듦믵뗈,웤맀쯣뷡맻뿤듳쇋놾듦솿ꆣ췵킡슳뫍랮룙(2000)퓲쫇닉폃웤쯼볛룱횸쫽(죧GDP뫋볛횸쫽뗈)살뷸탐듺쳦ꆣ웤쪵,죧맻쓜릻릹퓬돶훐맺뗄만뚨닺춶볛룱횸쫽,컊쳢뻍펭죐뛸뷢쇋ꆣ컒쏇퓚뷸탐쫽뻝쫕벯쪱얼좻랢쿖,퓚ꆶ짏몣춳볆쓪본(2001)ꆷ뗄뢽슼짏듦퓚붨맺뫳샺쓪살(1950쓪훁뷱)짏몣쫐뗄만뚨놾탎돉ퟜ뛮벰웤횸쫽,럖뇰볇캪KFSH뫍IKFSHꆣ룹뻝헢솽쇐쫽뻝,뿉틔볆쯣돶짏몣쫐뗄만뚨닺춶뫋볛횸쫽:PKFSHt=KFSHtΠKFSH19783IKFSHtꆣ짏몣ퟷ캪훐맺뺭볃뗄쯵펰,쯹뷸탐뗄만뚨닺춶벰웤뫋볛횸쫽뗄뇤뚯펦룃쫇폫좫맺쟩뿶춬늽뗄ꆣꆶ훐맺춳볆쓪본ꆷ쯹릫늼뗄만뚨닺춶볛룱횸쫽(PIF)탲쇐쫇듓1991쓪뾪쪼뗄,컒쏇붫좫맺만뚨닺춶볛룱횸쫽맘폚짏몣쫐만뚨닺춶뫋볛횸쫽뷸탐쿟탔믘맩ꋙ:PIFt=51947+01960PKFSH(t3)(117)(2518)AdjR2=.=21003ꆡDW=0195ꆡꆡ(1991ꆪ2000)ꆡꆡ짏쫶뷡맻뇭쏷쇋솽헟룟뛈뗄튻훂쿠맘탔ꆣ룹뻝1991쓪틔잰짏몣쫐만뚨닺춶뫋쯣횸쫽뗄쫽뻝쇏뫍맘쾵쪽(3),뿉틔쓢뫏돶1978ꆪ1991쓪뗄좫맺만뚨닺춶볛룱횸쫽탲쇐,퓙폫쯹릫늼뗄1991ꆪ2000쓪늿럖뷡뫏,뻍릹붨돶췪헻뗄훐맺만뚨닺춶볛룱횸쫽탲쇐ꆣ틽웰놾듦솿맀쯣욫닮뗄쇭튻룶풭틲쫇헛뻉뗄뫋쯣ꆣ헅뻼(2002)퓚뫘뻕믍(1992)뗄믹뒡짏뛔놾듦솿탲쇐뷸탐퇓짬,늢죏캪짨뚨만뚨닺뗄욽뻹쪹폃쓪쿞늢닢쯣쎿쓪놾놨럏뗄볛횵쫇럇뎣뢴퓓뗄,틲뛸뫶싔쇋헛뻉ꆣ췵킡슳뫍랮룙(2000)퓲쫇볙짨쇋튻룶만뚨뗄놾헛뻉싊(5%),틔듋췆쯣헛뻉ꆣ횻폐ퟞ훁(2000)뛔만뚨닺헛뻉뷸탐쇋뷏캪ퟐ쾸뗄뾼싇ꆣ쯤좻컒맺뗄만뚨닺헛뻉탲쇐튻횱쎻폐놻맺볒춳볆늿쏅횱뷓릫늼,떫쫇,춨맽뛔춳볆쓪본쾸훂럖컶,쫇뿉틔뷸탐볤뷓뫋쯣뗄ꆣ퓚맺쏱쫕죫뫋쯣쳥쾵뷸탐탞뚩(1994쓪)횮잰,평폚맺쏱쫕죫놻횱뷓릫늼,컒쏇뻍뿉틔춨맽맺쏱쫕죫맘쾵쪽:헛뻉=GDP-맺쏱쫕죫+늹쳹-볤뷓쮰,뛔1978ꆪ1993쓪뗄헛뻉탲쇐뷸탐볆쯣ꆣ평폚춳볆쳥쾵뗄뇤,퓚1994쓪횮뫳(1995쓪돽췢),룷쪡뗄헛뻉뿉듓춳볆쓪본훐뗃떽,컒쏇럖뇰붫쯹폐쪡럝뗄헛뻉볓웰살,1995쓪뗄헛뻉횵좡1994쓪뫍1996쓪쫽뻝뗄욽뻹횵,헢퇹뻍뗃떽쇋1994ꆪ2000쓪뗄헛뻉탲쇐ꆣ솽늿럖뷡뫏웰살,뻍릹돉쇋1978ꆪ2000쓪뗄췪헻뗄헛뻉탲쇐ꆣ닉폃맺쏱쫕죫맘쾵쪽ꋙ캪쪹솽룶볛룱횸쫽탲쇐쿠뮥튻훂,컒쏇퓚맀볆쪱,뛔PIF폫PKFSH뻹틔1995=100좡횵ꆣ35' 1994-2010 China Academic Journal Electronic Publishing House. All rights reserved.
샮훎맺ꆢ쳆맺탋:놾탎돉슷뺶폫놾듦솿뗷헻쒣탍췆쯣헛뻉랽램탨튪쮵쏷뗄튻뗣쫇,GDP폫맺쏱쫕죫럖뇰쫴폚SNA폫MPS룅쓮,잰헟냼삨럇컯훊럾컱늿쏅뗄뢽볓횵,뛸뫳헟쎻폐뾼싇럇컯훊럾컱늿쏅,쯹틔,헢훖췆쯣틾몬튻뚨컳닮,췆쯣뗄뷡맻믡뛔헛뻉뷸탐룟맀,헢쫇컒쏇펦룃뛔ퟮ뫳뷡맻뷸탐쳖싛뗄튻룶뗘랽ꆣ뷡뫏만뚨닺춶볛룱횸쫽폫만뚨닺헛뻉,룹뻝쪽(2),뿉틔뗃떽쪵볊뺻춶ꆣ돵쪼쓪럝뗄놾듦솿튻냣쫇춨맽웕닩믲맺쏱뺭볃룷늿쏅쿪쾸뫋쯣뛸뗃떽뗄,놾컄횱뷓닉폃ퟞ훁(Chow,1993)ퟐ쾸뫋쯣맽뗄1978쓪쓪쒩뗄돵쪼놾횵:14112틚풪ꆣꋙ듓헢튻돵쪼놾뾪쪼,늻뛏붫쪵볊뺻춶랴뢴듺죫쪽(1),뻍뿉틔뗃떽1978ꆪ2000쓪뗄놾듦솿탲쇐ꆣꋚ춼1쟥컺뗘쿔쪾쇋닉폃늻춬랽램맀쯣뗄놾듦솿뷡맻ꆣ컒쏇뿉틔뾴돶,헅뻼(2002)믹폚뫘뻕믍랽램퇓짬뗄놾듦솿ퟮ룟ꆣ헢쫇틲캪,룃랽램퓚1990쓪횮잰볓죫쇋럇짺닺탔닺,늢퓚1990쓪횮뫳뫶싔쇋놾헛뻉헢튻훘튪틲쯘,틲듋맀쯣뷡맻뿤듳쇋ꆣ룹뻝ퟞ훁뗄랽램(샮훎맺뫍쳆맺탋,2002)쯹맀쯣뗄놾듦솿튲쿠뛔뷏룟,헢훷튪쫇틲캪룃랽램컞램쳞돽럇짺닺탔늿쏅뗄닺뇤뚯벰듦믵뗈틲쯘뗄펰쿬,틲듋맀쯣뷡맻튲폐쯹뿤듳ꆣ췵킡슳뫍랮룙(2000)쯹맀쯣뗄놾듦솿ퟮ뗍,헢쫇틲캪쯻쏇캪뾼싇컒맺춶훐뗄뗄샋럑쟩뿶뛸틽죫쇋만뚨닺붻뢶쪹폃싊ꆣ떫쫇,벴쪹늻듦퓚춶샋럑,만뚨닺붻뢶쪹폃싊튲뮹쫇믡킡폚1ꆣ틲듋,닉폃캴붻뢶쪹폃뗄만뚨닺좥뗈춬샋럑뗄춶늿럖,믡쪹맀쯣뗄놾듦솿퓚튻뚨돌뛈짏쯵킡ꆣ놾컄뗄맀쯣쫇퓚ퟛ뫏틔췹랽램뗄믹뒡짏,릹붨만뚨닺춶볛룱횸쫽늢쾸훂뫋쯣만뚨닺헛뻉뛸뷸탐룄뷸뗄,쯹뗃떽뗄놾듦솿뷡맻뇈뷏쫊훐,튲룼캪뫏샭킩ꆣ춼1ꆡ훐맺놾듦솿뗄룷훖맀쯣뷡맻(늻뇤볛,1978쓪캪믹쓪)뛾ꆢ놾탎돉슷뺶:놾ꆪ닺돶뇈싊럖컶퓚듓1978쓪떽2000쓪뗄헻룶룄룯뾪럅웚볤샯,틔1978쓪뗄늻뇤볛살뾴,컒맺놾듦솿듓1411210틚풪짏짽떽6730412틚풪,랭쇋솽랬뮹튪뛠튻킩,쓪욽뻹퓶뎤싊룟듯7136%,믽샛벫캪톸쯙ꆣ놾듦솿ퟷ캪닺돶뗄튻훖춶죫튪쯘,웤탎돉맽돌늻뷶뷶튪춨맽놾짭퓶뎤ힴ뿶살뾼달,룼펦룃룹뻝놾듦솿폫닺돶쮮욽횮볤맘쾵뗄뇤뮯좥뫢솿,놾ꆪ닺돶뇈싊쫇쏨쫶놾탎돉뇤뮯맽돌뗄튻룶훘튪횸뇪ꆣ춼2룸돶쇋1978ꆪ2000쓪볤뗄훐맺놾ꆪ닺돶뇈싊벰웤뇤뮯싊ퟟ쫆ꆣ죧맻컒쏇붫1989ꆪ1990쓪헢룶쳘쫢뗄쪱뛎업돽퓚췢,쓇쎴뿉틔쟥컺뗘뾴돶,룄룯뾪럅틔살뗄놾탎돉맽돌쏷쿔뗘틔1994ꋙ룃돵쪼놾횵캪1978쓪늻뇤볛,쫇Chow(1993)룹뻝뎤탲쇐(1952ꆪ1978쓪)췆쯣뗄뷡맻ꆣꋚ풭컄뗄뢽뇭1룸돶쇋놾듦솿맀쯣맽돌훐짦벰뗄쫽뻝틔벰맀쯣뷡맻ꆣ쿞폚욪럹헢샯싔좥,탨튪헟뿉폫ퟷ헟솪쾵ꆣ36' 1994-2010 China Academic Journal Electronic Publishing House. All rights reserved.
2003쓪뗚2웚쓪캪뷧럖캪솽룶뷗뛎,죧춬춼2평솽쳵탩쪵쿟쯹뇪쏷뗄쓇퇹ꆣ퓚1994쓪횮잰,벴퓚룄룯틔살뗄잰쏦죽럖횮뛾뗄쪱볤샯,놾ꆪ닺돶뇈싊믹놾짏퓚돖탸쿂붵,평1978쓪뗄3189%쿂붵떽1994쓪뗄2134%,놾ꆪ닺돶뇈싊뗄쓪욽뻹뇤뮯싊듯떽쇋-3113%ꆣ좻뛸,퓚1994쓪횮뫳,놾ꆪ닺돶뇈싊쿔쪾돶튻뚨뗄돖탸짏짽쟷쫆,뷘횹2000쓪짏짽떽2151,놾ꆪ닺돶뇈싊뗄쓪욽뻹뇤뮯싊튲듯떽쇋1118%ꆣ춼2ꆡ훐맺뗄놾ꆪ닺돶뇈싊벰웤뇤뮯싊(1978ꆪ2000쓪ꋙ)ꆡꆡ캪쿻돽뷢쫍놾탎돉슷뺶쪱뗄맋싇,쫗쿈럖컶놾듦솿맀쯣뗄욫닮뛔뷡맻뗄펰쿬ꆣ평폚만뚨닺춶볛룱횸쫽놻뷏캪돉릦뗘릹퓬돶살,놾듦솿뗄맀쯣욫닮뻍훷튪뇭쿖퓚만뚨닺헛뻉뫋쯣랽쏦,헢폖랴펳폚만뚨닺헛뻉뗄볤뷓췆쯣짏,평폚닉폃뗄맺쏱쫕죫맘쾵쪽틾몬튻뚨컳닮,뛔1978ꆪ1993쓪볤뗄만뚨닺헛뻉탲쇐뗄췆쯣믡닺짺룟맀ꆣ떫쫇,죧맻닉폃맺쏱쫕죫맘쾵쪽췆쯣뗄만뚨닺헛뻉쪱뛎퓚헻룶만뚨닺헛뻉탲쇐짏쎻폐쏷쿔뗘룟돶,뻍뇭쏷맀쯣뗄욫닮늢늻쿔훸,컒쏇뗄췆쯣랽램뮹쫇폐킧뗄ꆣ듓만뚨닺헛뻉싊(만뚨닺헛뻉Π놾듦솿)살뾴,1978ꆪ1993쓪볤뗄만뚨닺헛뻉싊늢쎻폐쏷쿔룟돶헻쳥쮮욽,랴뛸쿠뛔1994ꆪ2000쓪볤뗄탲쇐쮮욽뷏뗍ꆣ헢뻍쮵쏷,맺쏱쫕죫맘쾵쪽볤뷓췆쯣쯹닺짺뗄룟맀늢쎻폐쪵훊탔뗄펰쿬,놾듦솿맀쯣맽돌훐뗄욫닮쫇뿉틔뫶싔뗄ꆣ죽ꆢ놾탎돉슷뺶뗄뺭볃탍뷢쫍훐맺뗄뺭볃퓶뎤놻죏캪훷튪평놾탎돉췆뚯뗄춬쪱,폖뺭뎣놻뺭볃ꆰ탍ꆱ(transition)헢튻룅쓮쯹뷢쫍,훐맺짧믡훷틥뺭볃뗄좷퓚뺭샺ퟅ듓볆뮮뺭볃쿲쫐뎡뺭볃탍뗄맽돌,뺭볃쳥쾵ꆢ쫐뎡믺훆뫍훆뛈뇤잨뚼쏷쿔듦퓚탍뗄뫛벣ꆣ틲듋,놾폫닺돶뗄맘쾵튲늻뿉뇜쏢뗘듲짏탍뗄샓펡ꆣ쓇쎴,훐맺뗄놾탎돉뷸돌쫇퓵퇹랴펳퓚훐맺뺭볃탍쫓뷇횮짏뗄?훐맺뺭볃탍훐뗄쯹캽퓶솿룄룯뿉틔뷢쫍1994쓪횮잰뗄놾탎돉맽돌ꆣ쇖틣럲뗈(1994)죏캪,훐맺뺭볃탍듦퓚쏷쿔뗄ꆰ퓶솿ꆱ쳘헷,탂퓶볓뗄풴믲쫕죫내쫐뎡탅뫅뷸탐엤훃늢듓뇟볊짏뛔놻얤쟺뗄뺭볃뷡릹뷸탐탞헽,듓뛸룄짆풴뗄엤훃킧싊,쪵쿖닺돶퓶뎤ꆣ퓚틔퓶솿룄룯캪쳘헷뗄뺭볃탍쪱웚,엤훃킧싊뗄룄뷸믡쪹탂퓶놾훰붥듓뒫춳짏쫜훘쫓뗄늿쏅쿲뒫춳짏쫜톹틖뗄늿쏅쟣킱,뺭볃듓뛸믱뗃쇋톸쯙퓶뎤ꆣ퓶솿룄룯쒣쪽뮹폐튻룶쿔훸쳘뗣,엤훃킧싊룄짆뗄뿕볤풽듳,퓶솿룄룯뛔뺭볃퓶뎤뗄듙뷸ퟷ폃뻍풽쏷쿔ꆣ떫쫇,듓쇭튻랽쏦살뾴,쯦ퟅ뺭볃듓뷏뗍킧싊뗄엤훃뗣쿲뷏룟킧싊뗄엤훃뗣뇆뷼,퓶솿룄룯쯹췆뚯뗄뺭볃퓶뎤쯙뛈뻍믡럅싽ꆣ틲듋,튻랽쏦,퓶솿룄룯쳡짽놾엤훃킧싊뛸쪹놾ꆪ닺돶뇈싊돖탸짏짽;쇭튻랽쏦,쯦ퟅ엤훃킧싊룄짆뿕볤뗄쯵킡,놾ꆪ닺돶ꋙꆡ퓚춼2훐,ퟳퟝퟸ뇪뇭쪾놾ꆪ닺돶뇈싊KΠY뗄뿌뛈,폒ퟝퟸ뇪뇭쪾놾ꆪ닺돶뇈싊뇤뮯싊ꚤ(KΠY)뗄뿌뛈ꆣ37' 1994-2010 China Academic Journal Electronic Publishing House. All rights reserved.
샮훎맺ꆢ쳆맺탋:놾탎돉슷뺶폫놾듦솿뗷헻쒣탍뇈싊뗄쿂붵쯙뛈훰붥럅뮺ꆣ1994쓪틔살돶쿖뗄놾ꆪ닺돶뇈싊짏짽쿖쿳쯆뫵룼볓쇮죋맘힢ꆣ헅뻼(2002)쳡돶틔맽뛈뗄릤튵뮯뷸돌살뷢쫍20쫀볍90쓪듺틔살뗄뺭볃퓶뎤쿂붵쟷쫆틔벰헢튻쿖쿳,뺡맜쒿잰볬퇩훐맺쫇럱듦퓚맽뛈릤튵뮯컊쳢뗄싛뻝늻ퟣ쟒폐듽짌좶,떫쫇,훐맺ퟔ짏쫀볍80쓪듺뺭샺쇋퓶솿룄룯쯹뒴퓬뗄풴엤훃킧싊뗄ퟜ쳥탔룄짆횮뫳,쯆뫵틑뺭쏷쿔뇭쿖돶ꆰ듖럅ꆱ퓶뎤뗄쳘헷ꆣ놾짮뮯뷸돌뿉틔ퟷ캪뷼쓪살놾탎돉맽뿬뗄뷏캪횱뷓폫뫏샭뗄뷢쫍ꆣ룹뻝쯷싞(Solow,1957)뗄랽램,죋뻹닺돶뗄퓶뎤싊평놾ꆪ샍뚯뇈싊뗄퓶뎤싊뫍쯷싞폠쿮솽늿럖ퟩ돉,뫳튻늿럖폖돆캪좫튪쯘짺닺싊믲뚯첬킧싊횸뇪,볇캪TFPꆣ벴쪹TFP늻쓜쿔훸퓶뎤,떫횻튪쓜릻늻뛏쳡룟놾ꆪ닺돶뇈싊틔놣횤웤퓶뎤쯙뛈,벴늻뛏볓뿬놾믽샛뷸돌,죋뻹닺돶튲믡쪵쿖튻뚨뗄퓶뎤,헢뻍쫇쯹캽뗄놾짮뮯쿖쿳ꆣYoung(1994)죏캪춶싊돖탸짏짽틽웰뗄놾짮뮯쫇췆뚯뚫퇇뺭볃쟸폲퓶뎤뗄튻룶훘튪틲쯘,떫쫇,맽뛈틀삵놾짮뮯뗄룟쯙퓶뎤늻뻟폐돖탸뗄뚯첬룄뷸믺훆,뛸뫳랢짺뗄뷰죚캣믺폫뺭볃쮥췋튲횤쏷쇋헢튻뗣ꆣ틔퓶솿룄룯캪쳘헷뗄엤훃킧싊룄뷸쪹뗃훐맺뗄탍뺭볃퓚퓶뎤쒣쪽짏폫웤쯻뚫퇇맺볒듦퓚쟸뇰,떫쫇,쯦ퟅ쫐뎡뮯뷸돌뗄늻뛏짮죫,풴평뗍쫕틦싊늿쏅쿲룟쫕틦싊늿쏅틆뗄룄짆뿕볤뇤뗃풽살풽킡,엤훃킧싊뛔뺭볃뗄췆뚯ퟷ폃뇤뗃쪮럖폐쿞ꆣ틲듋,캪볌탸쪵쿖튻뚨뗄퓶뎤,훐맺뺭볃풽살풽틐훘폚놾짮뮯뗄솦솿ꆣ쯄ꆢ탍웚뗄놾듦솿뗷헻쒣탍벰웤쪵횤럖컶튻냣죏캪,컒맺좡뗃벫캪톸쯙뗄놾믽샛뗄튻룶훷튪풭틲쫇,컒맺춶싊(좫짧믡만뚨닺춶Π맺쓚짺닺ퟜ횵)튻횱캬돖퓚35%ꆪ40%뗄뷏룟쮮욽짏,헢튻뷏룟뗄춶싊폖췆뚯쇋컒맺뺭볃틔9%틔짏뗄쓪욽뻹쯙뛈퓶뎤,뛸폫듋춬쪱뗄쓪욽뻹만뚨닺헛뻉싊뷶캪4173%,쎿쓪욽뻹뗄탂퓶놾(쪵볊뺻춶)듓뛸듯떽쇋놾듦솿뗄14161%ꆣ헢훷튪쫇듓릩룸뗄뷇뛈,춨맽맺쏱쫕죫뫋쯣랽램럖컶춶뗄뷰살풴,첽쳖탂퓶놾뗄룹풴,틔뛔놾믽샛룸폨뫏샭뗄뷢쫍ꆣ웤쪵,튻맺놾듦솿뗄뗷헻,듓캢맛닣쏦살뾴,뻍쫇룃맺쯹폐뗄웳튵쯹릺싲뗄놾욷,퓙뿛돽춬웚쯰뫄뗄늿럖ꆣ웳튵뛔놾욷뗄릺싲,튻랽쏦,좡뻶폚쿖폐뗄뫍쓜릻돯벯떽뗄뷰,웳튵뗄뷰살풴릹돉쇋튻맺놾뗷헻뗄릩룸틲쯘;쇭튻랽쏦,뮹좡뻶폚캪쇋캬돖풭폐짺닺맦쒣믲삩듳짺닺맦쒣뛸풸틢펵폐뗄놾욷폫쪵볊돖폐뗄놾욷횮볤뗄닮뻠,헢튻닮뻠탎돉쇋튻맺놾뗷헻뗄탨쟳틲쯘ꆣ퓚컒맺뺭볃탍뗄돵웚,평폚좱랦췪짆뗄쿖듺웳튵훆뛈,맺폐웳튵뗄춶뻶닟늢늻췪좫내헕샻죳ퟮ듳뮯뗄뺭볃샭탔풭퓲,퓚틔맺폐틸탐캪훷뗄쿁햭죚쟾뗀짏ꆰ,춶벢뿊ꆱ돉캪컒맺뺭볃뗄웕뇩쿖쿳,춶뗄뷰살풴뗄좷쫇펰쿬컒맺놾믽샛뗄튻룶뻶뚨탔틲쯘ꆣ떫쫇,컒맺뺭볃뗄뷸튻늽탍,폈웤쫇쯹닉좡뗄탐헾탔럖좨,틑뺭룄뇤쇋뺭볃늨뚯뗄캢맛믹뒡,탎돉쇋뗘랽헾뢮뫍맺폐웳튵릲춬뻶뚨뗄춶뗄ꆰ떹뇆믺훆ꆱ(뿎쳢ퟩ,1999)ꆣ늢쟒,쯦ퟅ맺폐웳튵룄룯뗄짮죫뫍럇맺폐뺭볃뇈샽뗄짏짽,샻죳ꆪ돉놾풭퓲훰붥놻웳튵춶뻶닟쪱쯹ퟱ톭ꆣ틲듋,쯦ퟅ컒맺뺭볃평릩룸떼쿲쿲탨쟳떼쿲뗄뇤,놾뗷헻뗄쓚퓚뚯믺튲훰붥듓릩룸튻랽쿲탨쟳튻랽,뾪쪼좡뻶폚틢풸놾듦솿폫쿖폐놾듦솿횮볤뗄닮뻠,벴놾탨쟳ꆣ웳튵퓚ퟔ훷뻶닟죧뫎뷸탐놾뗷헻쪱,믡폐훖훖뾼싇,뇈죧쿈죃쒿잰뗄짨놸돤럖샻폃ꆢ닉폃볓냠볓뗣뗄냬램;폖죧웳튵볒뮹튪맛췻튻쿂,쫇럱쒿잰뗄탨쟳쟩뿶뿉쓜돖탸쿂좥ꆣ쇭췢뮹평폚듓볆뮮춶떽쪵쿖튪폐튻뚨뗄쪱볤,탨튪춬틸탐첸에듻뿮,튪뷸탐짨놸뚩믵뗈뗈,틲듋,퓚튻웚쓚횻쓜쪵쿖뇘튪뗷헻솿뗄튻늿럖:Kt-Kt-1=ꛇ(K3t-Kt-1)(4)웤훐,K3캪틢풸놾듦솿,ꛇ캪늿럖뗷헻뇈샽ꆣ웳튵뗄틢풸놾듦솿,쫇퓚짺닺맽돌훐평ힷ쟳샻죳ퟮ듳뮯뗄쒿뗄뻶뚨뗄,웳튵뇘탫뻍쪹폃룼뛠놾캪웤믱뗃쫕틦쯹ퟷ뗄릱쿗,폫쪹폃룼뛠놾쯹랢짺38' 1994-2010 China Academic Journal Electronic Publishing House. All rights reserved.
2003쓪뗚2웚뗄돉놾횮볤쟳뗃뻹뫢ꆣ룹뻝튻뚨뗄짺닺벼쫵맘쾵뫍쫐뎡쟩뿶뛔닺욷쯹랴펳뗄풤웚탨쟳,뿉틔좷뚨헢튻틢풸놾듦솿:K3t=3vYtΠKc(t5)웤훐3,Y캪풤웚탨쟳솿,v캪놾뗄닺돶떯탔K,c캪놾돉놾ꆣ냑놾듦솿뗷헻쒣쪽폫틢풸놾탎돉맽돌솽랽쏦뷡뫏웰살,뻍뗃떽쇋놾듦솿뗷헻쒣탍캪:Kt=ꛇ3vYtΠKct+(1-ꛇ)Kt-1(6)ꆡꆡ룹뻝놾듦솿뗷헻쒣탍,떱웚놾듦솿뗄탎돉,쫇퓚짏웚놾듦솿뗄믹뒡짏,평풤웚뗄닺돶탨쟳뫍놾돉놾쯹릲춬뻶뚨뗄ꆣ퓚뷸탐볆솿럖컶쪱,튻냣쫇럖뾪뾼싇풤웚닺돶탨쟳뫍놾돉놾뛔놾뗷헻뗄펰쿬ꆣ풤웚닺돶탨쟳뿉틔평맽좥뗄닺돶솿쿟탔몯쫽뇭쪾,튲뿉틔닉폃ퟔ믘맩뮬뚯욽뻹(ARMA)쒣탍뷸탐쓢뫏ꆣ놾돉놾뿉틔닉폃믺믡돉놾룅쓮살럖컶쯹캽뗄쪹폃헟돉놾(UserCostofCapital)ꆣ볈좻놾뿉틔돶ퟢ,튲뿉틔놻펵폐헟쇴쿂ퟔ벺쪹폃,쓇쎴,펵폐놾뗄뎧짌퓚돶ퟢ놾뫍볌탸쪹폃횮볤뷸탐톡퓱쪱,볌탸놣쇴놾훁짙탨튪뾼싇죽룶랽쏦뗄믺믡돉놾:뗚튻,뎧짌럅웺쇋죧맻붫놾돶쫛늢냑쫕죫뒢탮웰살뿉믱뗃뗄샻쾢,떥캻쪱볤쓚뗄헢튻믺믡돉놾쫇평헦쪵샻싊뻶뚨뗄ꆣ뗚뛾,놾헛뻉,떥캻쪱볤쓚뗄헢튻믺믡돉놾평헛뻉싊뇭쪾ꆣ뗚죽,놾뗄쿠뛔볛룱믡랢짺뇤뮯,죧맻놾뗄쿠뛔볛룱쿂붵,쇴폃놾믡쪹놾샻뗃쫜쯰,놾뗄쪹폃헟돉놾짏짽;랴횮,짏짽뗄놾쿠뛔볛룱틽웰놾뗄쪹폃헟돉놾쿂붵ꆣ횻튪쪹폃놾뛸믱뗃뗄닺욷쫕틦룟폚짏쫶믺믡돉놾,뎧짌뻍믡볌탸놣쇴놾뛸뷸탐짺닺,럱퓲붫돶ퟢ놾ꆣ틲듋,퓚뻹뫢ힴ첬쿂,놾뗄쪹폃헟돉놾뗈폚헢킩믺믡돉놾:Kct=it-ꛐet+ꛄt-ꚤPKtΠPK(t7)웤훐K,c쫇놾뗄쪹폃헟돉놾,i쫇쏻틥샻싊,ꛐe쫇풤웚춨믵엲헍싊,ꛄ쫇놾헛뻉싊,PK쫇놾볛룱ꆣ쯦ퟅ룄룯뾪럅뗄짮죫뫍뺭볃뗄탍,컒맺놾듦솿뗄뗷헻쫇럱훰붥평탨쟳틲쯘뻶뚨,뿉틔춨맽짏쫶샭싛쒣탍뷸탐쪵횤뾼달ꆣ퓚볆솿럖컶랽램짏,컒쏇닉폃웕춨ퟮ킡뛾돋램(OLS)첽쳖놾듦솿뗷헻뗄뎤웚뻹뫢믺훆,닉폃컳닮탞헽쒣탍(ErrorCorrectionModel,ECM)럖컶놾듦솿뗷헻뗄뛌웚늨뚯맦싉ꆣ솽룶폃폚쪵횤럖컶뗄뻟쳥쒣탍럖뇰캪:RCAPt=ꛁ0+ꛁ1RCAPt-1+ꛁ2RGDPt+ꛁ3COST-Ut+ꛅ(t8)pppꚤRCAPt=g+ꇆꛌꚤjRCAPt-j+ꇆ<ꚤꛕꚤjRGDPt-j+ꇆjCOST-Ut-j+ꛈECMt-1+utj=1j=0j=0(9)ꆡꆡ웤훐,CAP캪늻뇤볛룱뇭쪾뗄놾듦솿,RGDP캪쪵볊맺쓚짺닺ퟜ횵,COST-U캪놾돉놾,ECM캪컳닮탞헽쿮(벴쓢뫏닐닮ꛅ)ꆣ놾돉놾뿉틔룹뻝쪽(7)볆쯣,웤훐,평폚놾욷뗄춶죫훜웚뷏뎤,쏻틥샻싊닉폃튻쓪웚뚨웚듻뿮샻싊뇭쪾,평폚1989쓪횮잰뗄듻뿮샻싊쎻폐릫늼,컒쏇붫1989쓪횮뫳뗄탲쇐쿠뛔폚튻쓪뚨웚듦뿮샻싊뷸탐쟷쫆쓢뫏,맀볆돶쇋1978ꆪ1988쓪횮볤뗄탲쇐;풤웚춨믵엲헍싊춨맽뢽볓풤웚뗄틾탔럆샻웕쮹쟺쿟볤뷓췆돶ꋙ,닉폃쫊펦탔풤웚뇭쪾;놾헛뻉싊닉폃짏쏦릹붨뗄만뚨닺춶볛룱횸쫽ꆢ쏻틥헛뻉뛮틔벰놾듦솿탲쇐뗃떽,벴ꛄt=DStΠPINVtΠKt;쇭췢,놾뗄쿠뛔볛룱뿉틔평춶욷볛룱폫쿻럑욷볛룱뗄늨뚯살뇭쪾,평폚컒맺놾쫐뎡짐늻쪮럖랢듯,만뚨닺춶볛룱횸쫽쿠뛔폚쿻럑볛룱횸쫽튲뇤뮯늻듳,컒쏇헢샯볲떥볙짨늻듦퓚놾쿠뛔볛룱늨뚯K,벴ꚤPt=0ꆣꋚꋙ맘폚풤웚춨믵엲헍믺훆뗄퇐뺿뫍럆샻웕쮹쟺쿟뗄맀볆,쟫닎볻샮훎맺(2002)ꆣꋚ놾돉놾볆쯣쯹쪹폃뗄쫽뻝뫍뷡맻퓚풭컄뢽뇭훐,쿞폚욪럹,랢뇭쪱싔좥,폐탨튪헟뿉틔폫ퟷ헟솪쾵ꆪꆪꆪ뇠헟힢ꆣ39' 1994-2010 China Academic Journal Electronic Publishing House. All rights reserved.
샮훎맺ꆢ쳆맺탋:놾탎돉슷뺶폫놾듦솿뗷헻쒣탍컒맺놾듦솿뗷헻뗄뎤웚뻹뫢믺훆폫뛌웚늨뚯맦싉뗄쪵횤뷡맻죧쿂:RCAPt=376198+018678RCAPt-1+015115RGDPt-36165COST-U(t10)(1131)(2018)(6105)(-2101)djR2=019997ꆡS1E1=30819ꆡDW=0187ꆡꆡꆡ(1980ꆪ2000)ꚤRCAPt=-240122+017001ꚤRCAPt-1+110689ꚤRGDPt-11187ꚤCOST-U(t11)(-2130)(1410)(7157)(-1130)+013700ECMtꆡ(2118)adjR2=019907ꆡ.=18819ꆡDW=2128ꆡꆡꆡ(1980ꆪ2000)듓놾듦솿뗷헻뗄뎤웚뻹뫢살뾴,죧랽돌(10)쿔쪾,헢튻평닺돶쮮욽뫍놾돉놾릲춬ퟷ폃뗄놾듦솿럖늼훍뫳쒣탍쓢뫏킧맻뫜뫃,쿔쪾돶컒맺틑뺭뻟폐솼뫃뗄놾듦솿뗷헻믺훆ꆣ놾듦솿맘폚닺돶쮮욽뗄뎤웚돋쫽캪015115Π(1-018678)=3187,벴듓뎤웚살뾴,닺돶쮮욽쎿퓶볓1틚풪,퓶놾듦솿퓶볓3187틚풪ꆣ놾듦솿맘폚놾돉놾뗄뎤웚돋쫽캪-36165Π(1-018678)=277123,벴듓뎤웚살뾴,놾돉놾쎿짏짽1%,놾듦솿복짙277123틚풪ꆣ짏쫶ퟷ폃뗄ퟛ뫏욽뻹훍뫳쪱볤캪018678Π(1-018678)=6156쓪ꆣ듓놾듦솿뗷헻뗄뛌웚늨뚯살뾴,죧랽돌(11)쿔쪾,놾듦솿뗄뇤뚯훷튪쫜떽훍뫳튻웚놾듦솿뇤뚯ꆢ떱웚닺돶쮮욽뇤뚯ꆢ떱웚뫍훍뫳튻웚놾돉놾뇤뚯뗈틲쯘뗄펰쿬ꆣ놾듦솿뗄뇤뚯,맘폚닺돶쮮욽뇤뚯뗄뎤웚돋쫽캪110689Π(1-017001)=51383,맘폚놾돉놾뇤뚯뗄뎤웚돋쫽캪(-11187)Π(1-017001)=3617,쟒ퟛ뫏욽뻹훍뫳쪱볤캪017001Π(1-017001)=1163쓪ꆣ컳닮탞헽쾵쫽캪013700>0,쮵쏷놾듦솿뗷헻퓚뛌웚쓚뻟놸뻹뫢뢴맩뗄쳘헷ꆣ뿉볻,퓚컒맺뺭볃탍뗄맽돌훐,탨쟳뻶뚨뗄놾듦솿뗷헻믺훆틑뺭믹놾탎돉ꆣ닺돶쮮욽폫놾돉놾뻹캪훘튪뗄뷢쫍뇤솿,캪쪹닺돶쮮욽퓶볓1룶떥캻,탨튪탂퓶놾015115룶떥캻;뛸샻싊믲놾헛뻉싊짏짽1%,폖믲풤웚춨믵엲헍싊쿂붵1%,믡틽웰탂퓶놾탨쟳쿂붵36165룶떥캻ꆣ컥ꆢ탨쟳떼쿲뗄춶탐캪벰웤몯쫽룹뻝놾듦솿뗷헻쒣탍,컒쏇뿉틔췆떼돶쯹캽뗄놾듦솿뗷헻탍믲쓜솦풭샭탍춶몯쫽ꆣ튻웚쓚뗄쪵볊춶솿퓚뗖늹놾헛뻉쯰뫄뫳뻍탎돉쇋탂퓶놾,벴듦퓚뫣뗈맘쾵쪽:It=Kt-(1-ꛄ)Kt-1ꆣ쯹틔,KIt=ꛇ3vYtΠct-(ꛇ-ꛄ)Kt-1(12)쪽(13)뇭쏷,춶탐캪뿉틔춨맽닺돶쮮욽ꆢ짏웚놾듦솿뫍놾돉놾뗈틲쯘살릲춬뷢쫍ꆣ뛸쟒,컒쏇뮹뿉틔쿻좥놾듦솿,3It-(1-ꛄ)It-1=ꛇvYtΠKct-(ꛇ-ꛄ)K3t-1-(1-ꛄ)[ꛇvYt-1ΠKct-1+(ꛇ-ꛄ)Kt-2]=ꛇ3vYtΠKct-(1-ꛄ)ꛇ3vYt-1ΠKct-1-(ꛇ-ꛄ)[Kt-1-(1-ꛄ)Kt-2]=ꛇ3KvYtΠct-(1-ꛄ)ꛇ3vYt-1ΠKct-1-(ꛇ-ꛄ)It-1짏쪽듓뗚뛾늽쿲뗚죽늽췆떼쪱,폃떽쇋뫣뗈맘쾵쪽:It-1=Kt-1-(1-ꛄ)Kt-2ꆣ폚쫇폐,3It=ꛇvYtΠKct-(1-ꛄ)ꛇ3vYt-1ΠKct-1+(1-ꛇ)It-1=ꛇvꚤ33)(YtΠKc)t+ꛄꛇ3vYt-1ΠKct-1+(1-ꛇ(1)It-1쪽(14)뷸튻늽뇭쏷,닺돶쮮욽폫놾돉놾뷡뫏웰살튲뿉틔뷢쫍춶탐캪ꆣ평닺돶쮮욽뫍놾돉놾,믲헟퓙뷡뫏짏튻웚뗄놾듦솿쯹뻶뚨뗄춶탐캪쫇쫴폚탨쟳떼쿲탍40' 1994-2010 China Academic Journal Electronic Publishing House. All rights reserved.
2003쓪뗚2웚뗄,쯦ퟅ뺭볃캢맛훷쳥풽살풽뛠뗘룹뻝샻죳ꆪ돉놾풭퓲뷸탐춶뻶닟,헢튻춶탐캪헽퓚훰붥랢햹캪컒맺뺭볃뗄훷떼춶쒣쪽ꆣ컒쏇폃폚쪵횤럖컶뗄뻟쳥쒣탍럖뇰캪:RIFt=ꛁ0+ꛁ1RGDPt+ꛁ2RCAPt-1+ꛁ3COST-Ut+ꛅ(t14)RIFt=ꛁ0+ꛁ1RIFt-1+ꛁ2ꚤRGDPt+ꛁ3RGDPt+ꛁ4COST-U(t+ꛅt15)웤훐,RIF캪쪵볊춶솿,평믹폚만뚨닺춶볛룱횸쫽헛쯣뗄좫짧믡만뚨닺춶뛮뇭쪾;웤쯻뇤솿뗄틢틥춬짏ꆣ컒맺놾듦솿뗷헻쪽춶몯쫽쪵횤뷡맻죧쿂ꋙ:RIFt=861176+016173RGDPt-010930RCAPt-1-115167COST-U(t16)(1152)(7133)(-2131)(-3131)adjR2=019953ꆡ.=22217ꆡDW=0167ꆡꆡꆡꆡꆡꆡ(1979ꆪ2000)RIFt=254190+016997RIFt-1+018344ꚤRGDPt+011025RGDPt-1-53165COST-Ut(17)(1121)(5158)(7183)(1189)(-3125)adjR2=019982ꆡ.=14313ꆡDW=2152ꆡꆡꆡꆡꆡ(1979ꆪ2000)듓몬폐놾듦솿뗄춶몯쫽살뾴,죧랽돌(16)쿔쪾,헢튻평닺돶쮮욽뫍놾돉놾틔벰짏웚놾듦솿릲춬ퟷ폃뗄춶탐캪뗄쓢뫏킧맻뫜뫃,헢쮵쏷탨쟳떼쿲뗄춶믺훆틑뺭쯦ퟅ컒맺뺭볃뗄탍뛸훰붥탎돉ꆣ닺돶쮮욽퓶볓1틚풪,탨튪춶퓶볓016173틚풪;놾돉놾짏짽1%,춶탨쟳복짙115167틚풪ꆣ쇭췢,죧맻짏튻웚뗄놾듦솿퓶볓1틚풪,떱웚춶뿉틔복짙010930틚풪ꆣ듓쿻좥놾듦솿뗄춶몯쫽살뾴,죧랽돌(17)쿔쪾,헢튻평닺돶쮮욽뫍놾돉놾릲춬ퟷ폃뗄럖늼훍뫳탍춶탐캪쓢뫏킧맻튲뫜뫃ꆣ춶탨쟳맘폚닺돶뇤뚯뗄뎤웚돋쫽캪018344Π(1-016997)=2177,벴듓뎤웚살뾴,닺돶뇤뚯퓶볓1틚풪,춶탨쟳퓶볓2177틚풪ꆣ춶탨쟳맘폚닺돶쮮욽뗄뎤웚돋쫽캪011025Π(1-016997)=0134,벴듓뎤웚살뾴,닺돶쮮욽퓶볓1틚풪,춶탨쟳퓶볓0134틚풪ꆣ춶탨쟳맘폚놾돉놾뗄뎤웚돋쫽캪53165Π(1-016997)=178165,벴듓뎤웚살뾴,놾돉놾짏짽1%,놾듦솿복짙178165틚풪ꆣ짏쫶ퟷ폃뗄ퟛ뫏욽뻹훍뫳쪱볤캪016997Π(1-016997)=2133쓪ꆣ뿉볻,퓚컒맺뺭볃탍뗄맽돌훐,탨쟳떼쿲뗄춶탐캪틑뺭믹놾탎돉ꆣ닺돶쮮욽폫놾돉놾뻹캪훘튪뗄뷢쫍뇤솿,캪쪹닺돶쮮욽퓶볓1룶떥캻,탨튪탂퓶춶016173룶떥캻;뛸샻싊믲놾헛뻉싊짏짽1%,믡틽웰춶탨쟳춬쪱쿂붵53165룶떥캻ꆣ쇹ꆢ뷡폯퓚놾컄훐,컒쏇룸돶쇋튻룶룄뷸뗄놾듦솿맀쯣랽램,춨맽헢튻랽램쯹맀쯣뗄놾듦솿뇈틔췹뗄맀쯣뷡맻(죧뫘뻕믍,1992;ퟞ훁,2000;췵킡슳뫍랮룙,2000)룼캪뺫좷,뛸쟒,컒쏇쓢뫏쇋만뚨닺춶볛룱횸쫽늢춨맽맺쏱뺭볃뫋쯣랽램볤뷓볆쯣돶만뚨닺헛뻉ꆣ죧맻듦퓚닺볛룱탲쇐,컒쏇뮹뿉틔뷸튻늽뾼싇닉폃폀탸엌헻램(믆폂럥뗈,2002)ꆣ듓1978-2000쓪,컒맺뗄놾듦솿랭쇋늻횹솽랬,믽샛벫캪톸쯙ꆣ컒쏇춨맽놾ꆪ닺돶뇈싊뗄늨뚯뾼달쇋놾탎돉슷뺶,랢쿖컒맺뗄놾탎돉맽돌쏷쿔뗘틔1994쓪캪뷧럖캪잰뫳솽룶뷗뛎ꆣ퓚룄룯뾪럅틔살뗄잰쏦죽럖횮뛾쪱볤샯,놾ꆪ닺돶뇈싊믹놾짏퓚돖탸쿂붵,퓶솿룄룯쯹췆뷸뗄엤훃킧싊룄뷸뿉틔뛔듋뷸탐뷢쫍ꆣ뷼쓪살좴돶쿖쇋놾ꆪ닺돶뇈ꋙ평폚쓉죫쯹폐틲쯘(샻싊ꆢ풤웚춨믵엲헍싊벰헛뻉싊)뗄놾돉놾ퟷ캪뷢쫍뇤솿쪱늢늻쿔훸,컒쏇뻍뛔놾돉놾훮뛠틲쯘뷸탐즸톡,랢쿖쳞돽풤웚춨믵엲헍뫳뗄놾돉놾뿉틔쿔훸펰쿬춶,틲듋,퓚맀볆뗄춶랽돌훐,놾돉놾쎻폐냼몬풤웚춨믵엲헍싊ꛐet,벴COST-Ut=it+ꛄtꆣ41' 1994-2010 China Academic Journal Electronic Publishing House. All rights reserved.
샮훎맺ꆢ쳆맺탋:놾탎돉슷뺶폫놾듦솿뗷헻쒣탍싊늻뛏짏짽뗄쟷쫆,컒쏇뛔헢튻쿖쿳뗄럖컶쫇,퓶솿룄룯뗄췆뚯ퟷ폃뷓뷼캲짹,뛸뚯첬킧싊폖캴쓜쿔훸쳡룟,캪놣돖튻뚨뗄뺭볃퓶뎤,횻쓜풽살풽틐훘폚놾짮뮯뗄솦솿ꆣ떫쫇,탂탋쫐뎡맺볒맽뛈틀삵놾짮뮯뗄뺭볃뷸돌뇭쏷,뷶평놾짮뮯쯹췆뚯뗄뺭볃퓶뎤늻뻟폐돖탸뗄뚯첬룄뷸믺훆,컒쏇뇘탫쫊쪱뗷헻떱잰뗄탍뷸돌,늻뛏볓뿬좫랽캻짮닣듎뗄뷡릹뗷헻,믽벫췆뚯듓듖럅탍쿲벯풼탍뗄퓶뎤랽쪽뇤틔벰횱뷓펰쿬놾탎돉뗄뷰죚쳥훆짮뮯룄룯,틔놣돖뺭볃퓶뎤뗄뿉돖탸탔ꆣ컒맺좡뗃뗄톸쯙놾믽샛튻횱폫돖탸뷏룟뗄춶싊솪쾵퓚튻웰,헢쫇듓릩룸뷇뛈,틔춶뗄뷰살풴뛔놾탎돉룸폨뷢쫍ꆣ떫쫇,쯦ퟅ맺폐웳튵짮죫룄룯뫍럇맺폐뺭볃뇈샽짏짽,뺭볃훷쳥훰붥틀뻝샻죳ꆪ돉놾풭퓲ퟔ훷뻶닟춶탐캪,훐맺뺭볃튲평릩룸떼쿲쿲탨쟳떼쿲뇤,놾뗷헻늻뛏좡뻶폚놾탨쟳ꆣ춨맽뛔룄룯뾪럅틔살놾뗷헻폫춶맽돌뗄쪵횤럖컶,놾컄죏캪탨쟳떼쿲뗄놾듦솿뗷헻믺훆뫍춶탐캪틑뺭퓚훐맺뗄탍뺭볃훐믹놾탎돉ꆣ캪쪹닺돶쮮욽퓶볓,탨튪탂퓶놾뫍춶쮮욽춬쪱퓶볓;놾돉놾뗄짏짽,벴쏻틥샻싊뫍놾헛뻉싊짏짽,믲헟풤웚춨믵엲헍싊쿂붵,믡틽웰탂퓶놾탨쟳뫍춶탨쟳춬쪱쿂붵ꆣ닎뾼컄쿗듷캬ꆤ싞쒬[쏀],2001ꆶ:룟벶뫪맛뺭볃톧ꆷ,짌컱펡쫩망ꆣ뫘뻕믍,1992ꆶ:컒맺닺뗄맀쯣ꆷꆶ,쫽솿뺭볃폫벼쫵뺭볃퇐뺿ꆷ뗚8웚ꆣ믆폂럥ꆢ죎죴뛷뫍쇵쿾짺,2002ꆶ:훐맺훆퓬튵놾듦솿폀탸엌듦램맀볆ꆷꆶ,뺭볃톧(벾뾯)ꆷ뗚1뻭뗚2웚ꆣ샮훎맺,2002ꆶ:럆샻웕쮹쟺쿟뫍풤웚춨믵엲헍믺훆뗄샭싛폫쪵횤퇐뺿ꆷꆶ,훐맺뺭볃컊쳢ꆷ뗚5웚ꆣ샮훎맺ꆢ쳆맺탋,2002ꆶ:컒맺욽뻹놾돉놾뗄맀쯣ꆷꆶ,춳볆퇐뺿ꆷ뗚11웚ꆣ쇖틣럲ꆢ닌ꆡ뫍샮훜,1994ꆶ:훐맺뗄웦벣:랢햹햽싔폫뺭볃룄룯ꆷ,짏몣죽솪쫩뗪ꆣ죈죴뛻ꆤ싞삼[뇈],2002ꆶ:탍폫뺭볃톧ꆷ,놱뺩듳톧돶냦짧ꆣ쳆맺탋,1988ꆶ:볆솿뺭볃톧ꆪꆪꆪ샭싛ꆢ랽램뫍쒣탍ꆷ,뢴떩듳톧돶냦짧ꆣ췵킡슳ꆢ랮룙,2000ꆶ:컒맺뺭볃퓶뎤뗄뿉돖탸탔ꆷ,뺭볃뿆톧돶냦짧ꆣ헅뻼,2002ꆶ:놾탎돉ꆢ릤튵뮯폫뺭볃퓶뎤:컒맺뗄맬쳘헷ꆷꆶ,뺭볃퇐뺿ꆷ뗚6웚ꆣ훐맺짧믡뿆톧풺뺭볃퇐뺿쯹뫪맛뿎쳢ퟩ,1999ꆶ:춶ꆢ훜웚늨뚯폫훆뛈탔뷴쯵킧펦ꆪꆪꆪ떱잰훐맺뫪맛뺭볃럖컶ꆷꆶ,뺭볃퇐뺿ꆷ뗚3웚ꆣퟞ훁,2000ꆶ:2010쓪컒맺뺭볃퓶뎤잰뺰ꆷꆶ,뿬쯙퓶뎤쎻폐훕뷡ꆷ,훐맺닆헾뺭볃돶냦짧ꆣChow,G.,1993ꆰ,CapitalFormationandEconomicGrowthinChinaꆱ,QuarterlyJournalofEconomicsCVIII,809ꆪ,A.,1994ꆰ,LessonsfromtheEastAsianNICs:ACintrarianViewꆱ,,A.,2000ꆰ,TheRazorꆯsEdge:DistortionsandIncrementalReforminthePeopleꆯsRepublicofChinaꆱQuarterlyJournalofEconom2ics,,Issue4(Number)Solow,RobertM,1957.ꆰTechnicalChangeandtheAggregateProductionFunctionꆱ,ReviewofEconomicsandStatistics,39:312ꆪ,RobertM,1962.ꆰTechnicalProgress,CapitalFormation,andEconomicGrowthꆱ,AmericanEconomicReview,52:76ꆪ86.(퓰죎뇠벭:톩ꆡ뢦)(킣뛔:쿾ꆡ언)42' 1994-2010 China Academic Journal Electronic Publishing House. All rights reserved.
AbstractsofPapersinEnglishEfficientInstitutionandRestrictionofadministrativePowersHanChaohua(TheInstituteofEconomics,ChineseAcademyofSocialSciences),,however,thosepolicieshavefailedtogettheinstitutionalarrangementsofSOEsefficient,,controlgovernmentalbehaviorandtransformtheadministrativeaspectofSOEꆯsinstitution,:Grantingautonomyandsharingprofit;definingpropertyright;administrativepowers;governmentalpowersJELClassification:D230,P310TheAssumptionofCostLeadershipofTaxCollectingandOptimizationofChinaꆯsTaxOrganizationStructureRenShougen(SchoolofFinance,JiangxiFinancialUniversity)Onthebasisoftheassumptionofcostleadershipoftaxcollection,thepaperdiscussesoptimizationofChinaꆯstaxorganizationstructureandanalyzeswhetherChinaꆯsstatetaxbureauandlocaltaxbureauwillbeunitized,ꆯstaxorganizationthepapershowsthatChinaꆯscostoftaxcollectionappearsinparabolaandcon2cludesthatitisimpossiblethatChinaꆯꆯ:costoftaxcollection;taxorganizationstructure;optimization;economiesofscaleJELClassification:H110,H210,H320TheCapitalFormationandTheCapitalAdjustmentModelDuringTheChinaꆯsTransitionLiZhiguo&TangGuoxing(FudanUniversity)Thecapitalstockhasbeendoubledsincetheeconomicreform,,ꆯ,:CapitalStock;CapitalFormation;CapitalAdjustmentModel;TransitionJELClassification:E220,P23092' 1994-2010 China Academic Journal Electronic Publishing House. All rights reserved.
