뗚6뻭ꆡ뗚3웚쓏뺩얩튵듳톧톧놨(짧믡뿆톧냦)(3),쓪9퓂JournalofNanjingAgriculturalUniversity(SocialSciencesEdition)Sep.,2006컒맺짏쫐릫쮾뎬쓜솦엉쿖뗄쪵횤퇐뺿ꆪꆪꆪ믹폚릫쮾훎샭뷡릹쫓뷇췵뮳쏷,쪷쿾쏷(쓏뺩얩튵듳톧뺭볃맜샭톧풺,붭쯕쓏뺩210095)햪ꆡ튪:2000쓪틔뫳쯦ퟅ컒맺엉쿖짏쫐릫쮾쫽솿퓶볓,튻킩뎬쓜솦엉쿖릫쮾룱췢틽죋맘힢ꆣ톡좡2004쓪짮?훷냥쫐뎡뎬쓜솦엉쿖뗄42볒릫쮾ퟷ캪닢쫔퇹놾,붨솢Logistic쒣탍,춨맽쪵횤퇐뺿랢쿖릫쮾훎샭뷡릹쫇짏쫐릫쮾랢짺뎬쓜솦엉쿖탐캪뗄훘튪펰쿬틲쯘,웤훐뛀솢뚭쫂뇈샽ꆢ룟맜킽돪쮮욽뛔뎬쓜솦엉쿖뻟폐쿔훸탔펰쿬,릫쮾훎샭뷡릹뗄폅뮯폐샻폚훆풼짏쫐릫쮾뗄뎬쓜솦엉쿖탐캪ꆣ맘볼듊:짏쫐릫쮾;훎샭뷡릹;뎬쓜솦엉쿖;쪵횤퇐뺿훐춼럖샠뫅:ꆡꆡ컄쿗뇪쪶싫:Aꆡꆡ컄헂뇠뫅:1671-7465(2006)03-0028-06뗄쳴햽,튲쪹뗃볠맜늿쏅뗄췾탅붵뗍,훺뎤쇋춶믺튻ꆢ틽퇔좡쟉뗄늻솼럧웸[1],펰쿬컒맺횤좯쫐뎡붡뾵폐탲뗘랢햹ꆣ2000쓪벰2001쓪횤볠믡돶첨쇋튻쾵쇐헾닟,평폚컷랽놾쫐뎡뇈뷏돉쫬,램싉믺훆뇈뷏붡맄샸횧뢶쿖뷰막샻,쪹뗃컒맺풽살풽뛠뗄짏쫐릫쮾좫,릫쮾훎샭뷡릹뇈뷏췪짆,짏쫐릫쮾뎬쓜솦엉쿖톡퓱엉랢쿖뷰막샻,엉쿖릫쮾쫽솿ꆢ뇈샽뻹폐듳럹뗄쟩뿶뷏짙,틲듋맺췢뛔듋퇐뺿늻뛠ꆣ뷼쓪살맺쓚쳡짽ꆣꋙ늻짙톧헟뛔뎬쓜솦엉쿖컊쳢뷸탐쇋폐틦뗄첽쯷ꆣ퓚헢쎴튻룶듳놳뺰쿂,튻킩틬뎣엉쿖뗄짏쫐릫뛎엠퇴듓샭싛폫쪵볹솽랽쏦닻쫶쇋룟엉쿖쿖쿳뗄쮾틽웰죋쏇뗄맘힢,헢웤훐뻍냼삨뎬쓜솦엉쿖릫돉틲,뷸뛸럖컶웤놾훊,ퟜ뷡쇋룟엉쿖맽돌훐뗄훖쮾ꆣ쒿잰,샭싛뷧뛔뎬쓜솦엉쿖쎻폐퇏룱뗄뚨틥ꆣ훖럇솼탔엉쿖,늢쳡돶쇋죴룉훎샭뛔닟ꆣ[2]퇮탋놾컄쳡돶솽룶쳵볾,죏캪횻튪럻뫏웤훐튻룶쳵볾벴좫ꆢ샮믛쇡듓샭싛짏럖컶쇋짏쫐릫쮾룟엉쿖뗄풭쫴뎬쓜솦엉쿖:(1)쎿막쿖뷰막샻듳폚쎿막쫕틦:틲,늢뛔2003쓪40볒룟엉쿖릫쮾뷸탐쏨쫶탔춳(2)쎿막쿖뷰막샻듳폚쎿막뺭펪쿖뷰뺻쇷솿ꆣퟷ볆,듓뛸횸돶짏쫐릫쮾훐듦퓚뗄늻솼럖엤컊쳢ꆣ[3]캪튻훖틬뎣탐캪,뎬쓜솦엉쿖쯤좻믡퓚뛌웚쓚뛔폚컩샻쓈뗈퇐뺿랢쿖,릫쮾막놾맦쒣ꆢ쇷춨막뇈샽ꆢ듳쳡짽막뚫뗄탅탄ꆢ쳡짽웳튵탎쿳뻟폐튻뚨뗄ퟷ폃,막뚫훐횤좯춶믹뷰룶쫽ꆢ짏쫐릫쮾뺻닺쫕틦싊떫쫇듓뎤풶살뾴쯼믡펰쿬웳튵뗄뿉돖탸랢햹ꆣ듋(ROE)쫇럱뷓뷼엤막듯뇪쿟쟸볤[6%,7%],릫쮾췢,쒳킩짏쫐릫쮾붫뎬쓜솦엉쿖ퟷ캪펯폠맜샭뗄튻뗄짏쫐쓪쿞ꆢ짏쫐릫쮾떱쓪쫇럱랢럅막욱막샻믲뷸훖쫖뛎,춨맽룟엉쿖붵뗍쎿막뺻닺,뷸뛸쳡룟뺻탐막욱퓶,뻹쫇ꆰ틬뎣룟엉쿖ꆱ뗄쿔훸펰쿬틲닺쫕틦싊,틔듯떽엤막뗄쳵볾,헢쫇뛔쫐뎡돏탅쯘ꆣ[4]풬쳬죙ꆢ쯕뫬쇁춨맽퇐뺿랢쿖뎬엉쿖쓜솦폫쫕룥죕웚:2006-06-27믹뷰쿮쒿:붭쯕쪡뷌폽쳼룟뗈톧킣헜톧짧믡뿆톧믹뷰쿮쒿(06SJD630033)ퟷ헟볲뷩:췵뮳쏷(1963ꆪ),쓐,쓏뺩얩튵듳톧뺭볃맜샭풺뷌쫚;쪷쿾쏷(1979ꆪ),쓐,쓏뺩얩튵듳톧뺭볃맜샭톧풺쮶쪿퇐뺿짺ꆣꋙ2000쓪틔잰엉쿖릫쮾늻뎬맽300볒,쯹햼뇈샽퓚30%ퟳ폒,뛸2000쓪벰틔뫳엉쿖릫쮾뻹뎬맽600볒,쯹햼뇈샽뻹뎬맽50%ꆣ28
뗚3웚ꆡꆡꆡꆡꆡꆡꆡꆡꆡ췵뮳쏷,쪷쿾쏷:컒맺짏쫐릫쮾뎬쓜솦엉쿖뗄쪵횤퇐뺿ꆡꆡꆡꆡꆡꆡꆡꆡꆡꆡꆡꆡꆡꆡꆡ닺맦쒣ꆢ뺻닺쫕틦싊ꆢ짏쫐쓪쿞쿔훸뢺쿠맘,늻뗀쫇춨맽돶쾯뚭쫂믡틩,뛀솢뚭쫂돶쟚싊풽룟,쯻춬탐튵뗄뎬쓜솦엉쿖뗄펰쿬틲쯘듦퓚튻뚨닮쏇뛔웳튵뗄쇋뷢뻍풽뛠,듓뛸폐뿉쓜믱뗃룼뛠뗄폐틬ꆣ[5]듋췢,돂탅풪ꆢ돂뚬뮪뫍쪱탱퓋폃낸샽럖컶맘웳튵퓋펪뗄탅쾢,폐샻폚쯻쏇룼뫃뗄ퟶ돶릫헽ꆢ랽램,듓런즽헕쏷뗄룟뛮쿖뷰막샻죫쫖,뛔컒맺뿍맛뗄에뛏,듓뛸복짙뚭쫂믡ퟶ돶틬뎣막샻럖엤랽놾쫐뎡뗄릫쮾훎샭폫쿖뷰막샻뗄맘쾵뷸탐퇐뺿,뷡낸뗄뿉쓜탔ꆣ쯹틔,컒쏇쳡돶죧쿂볙짨:맻랢쿖,룟엉쿖늢쎻폐쳡룟릫쮾뗄볛횵,룟엉쿖싙볙짨3:뛀솢뚭쫂뗄돶쟚싊풽룟,뎬쓜솦엉쿖캪쇋듳막뚫틆뷰뗄릤뻟,늢쎻폐랴펳훐킡막뚫랢짺뗄뿉쓜탔풽킡뗄샻틦폫풸췻ꆣ[6]볠쫂믡쫇짏쫐릫쮾뇘짨뗄볠뚽늿쏅,쫇듺뇭막ퟛ짏쯹쫶,맺쓚쿖폐뗄퇐뺿훷튪쫇뻖쿞폚샭싛뚫볠뚽릫쮾뚭쫂믡뫍맜샭닣뺭펪탐캪뗄쓚늿좨솦짏첽쳖뎬쓜솦엉쿖뗄풭틲ꆢ럖컶뎬쓜솦엉쿖뗄튻냣믺맘ꆣ튻쏻볠쫂뫜쓑펵폐룷랽쏦뗄뎤,틲듋킡탍펰쿬틲쯘,떫쏅듓릫쮾훎샭뷡릹뗄쫓뷇뛔뎬쓜솦볠쫂믡뫜쓑돤럖랢믓볠맜뗄ퟷ폃ꆣ듳탍볠쫂믡평엉쿖컊쳢뷸탐쪵횤퇐뺿뗄뮹뷏짙ꆣ놾컄붫퓚잰죋폚펵폐뻟놸릫쮾믲닆컱뺭퇩뗄볠쫂,듓뛸퓚ퟨ횹펯퇐뺿뗄믹뒡짏뻍릫쮾훎샭뷡릹뛔뎬쓜솦엉쿖뗄펰폠맜샭ꆢ볠뚽닆컱믡볆맽돌랽쏦룼볓폐킧ꆣ[9]쯹쿬뷸탐쪵횤볬퇩ꆣ틔,컒쏇쳡돶죧쿂볙짨:볙짨4:볠쫂믡맦쒣풽듳,뎬쓜솦엉쿖랢짺뗄뛾ꆢ퇐뺿볙짨뿉쓜탔풽킡컒맺짏쫐릫쮾맜샭닣돖막뇈샽늻룟,막좨벤샸퓚펰쿬막샻헾닟훆뚨뗄훮틲쯘훐,릫쮾훎샭뷡뗄ퟷ폃뫜쓑랢믓ꆣ룟맜(냼삨뚭쫂ꆢ뺭샭뫍볠쫂릹쫇펰쿬막샻헾닟훆뚨뗄맘볼틲쯘ꆣ[7]릫쮾훎샭뗈)쯹믱뗃뗄놨돪훷튪쫇쿖뷰쫕죫ꆣ쿖듺벤샸샭뷡릹뗄ힴ뿶퓚뫜듳돌뛈짏뻶뚨ퟅ릫쮾뗄퓋펪ힴ뿶,싛죏캪,벤샸쓜듙쪹룶죋뢶돶룟쮮욽뗄얬솦틔쪵쿖룷훖뻶닟뚼쫇퓚튻뚨뗄릫쮾훎샭믺훆쿂ퟶ돶뗄ꆣퟩ횯쒿뇪ꆣ죧맻룟맜믱뗃킽돪풽룟,쯻쏇뗄믽벫탔막샻헾닟쫇릫쮾뺭펪훐뗄튻쿮훘튪뻶닟,ퟔ좻튲튪뫍훷뚯탔믡놻ퟮ듳돌뛈뗄뗷뚯웰살,듓뛸ퟶ돶룼뫏쫜떽릫쮾훎샭뗄펰쿬ꆣ[8]샭ꆢ폐킧뗄뻶닟(웤훐튲냼삨막샻뻶닟),캬뮤맣듳훆뚨릫쮾뗄샻죳럖엤랽낸쫇뚭쫂믡뗄튻쿮훘춶헟뗄샻틦ꆣ쯹틔,컒쏇쳡돶죧쿂볙짨:튪횰퓰ꆣ뚭쫂믡맦쒣쫇펰쿬뚭쫂믡킧싊뗄튻룶훘볙짨5:룟맜뗄놨돪풽룟,뎬쓜솦엉쿖랢짺뗄튪틲쯘ꆣ쿠뛔폚킡탍뚭쫂믡,듳탍뚭쫂믡뗄킭뗷돉뿉쓜탔풽킡놾믡룼룟,뚭쫂닎폫뻶닟ꆢ볠뿘뗄믽벫탔틔벰쿠뮥솽횰뫏튻쮵쏷릫쮾뗄훎샭뷡릹짐늻붡좫,뚭쫂횮볤킭ퟷ틢풸복죵,듓뛸뿉쓜믡ퟨ낭뚭쫂믡릦쓜뗄뎤뿉쓜믡뛔뚭쫂믡쪩볓튻뚨뗄펰쿬,틔톹훆웤쯻뚭헽뎣랢믓,떼훂뚭쫂믡킧싊뗍쿂,쪹뗃뚭쫂믡룼죝쫂뫍막뚫뛔웤쇭튻훖뷇즫ꆪꆪꆪퟜ뺭샭(ퟜ닃)뗄볠틗놻듳막뚫ꆢ릫쮾뺭샭쯹뿘훆ꆣ틲듋,뚭쫂믡맦쒣뚽,듓뛸펰쿬뚭쫂믡ퟷ폃뗄헽뎣랢믓,펰쿬뚭쫂믡맽듳믡퓬돉뚭쫂믡뗄컞킧싊,쪹뗃뚭쫂믡ퟶ돶늻솼막샻뻶닟뗄뿆톧탔ꆣ쯹틔,컒쏇쳡돶죧쿂볙짨:뗄막샻럖엤뻶닟ꆣ쯹틔,컒쏇쳡돶죧쿂볙짨볙짨6:뚭쫂뎤폫ퟜ뺭샭솽횰뫏튻죝틗랢짺뎬:볙짨1:뚭쫂믡뗄맦쒣풽듳,뎬쓜솦엉쿖랢짺쓜솦엉쿖뗄뿉쓜탔풽듳뛀솢뚭쫂살ퟔ웳튵췢늿,듳뛠뚼쫇평뻟폐럡뢻죽ꆢ쪵횤퇐뺿횪쪶폫맜샭뺭퇩뗄볒ꆢ톧헟떣죎,쯻쏇뛀솢폚듳막뚫ꆢ뺭샭닣,듓샭싛짏살쮵쓜릻룼폐킧뗄볠뚽뺭1.퇹놾톡퓱폫쫽뻝살풴펪헟,뇜쏢ꆰ쓚늿죋뿘훆ꆱꆣ뛀솢뚭쫂쫇놣횤뚭쫂놾컄틔짮?훷냥쫐뎡뗄짏쫐릫쮾캪퇐뺿뛔쿳,믡룟킧퓋뗄훘튪쳵볾,뚭쫂믡뗄뛀솢탔ꆢ뿍맛탔틔2004쓪캪쪱볤뒰뿚ꆣ2004쓪퓚짮?훷냥쫐뎡풽룟,뚭쫂믡막샻뻶닟뗄뿆톧탔튲믡풽룟ꆣ쯹틔,폐42볒짏쫐릫쮾랢짺뎬쓜솦엉쿖,컒쏇틔듋ퟷ캪컒쏇쳡돶죧쿂볙짨:닢쫔퇹놾,춬쪱톡퓱쇋폫짏쫶릫쮾탐튵쿠춬ꆢ뺻볙짨2:뛀솢뚭쫂뗄뇈샽풽룟,뎬쓜솦엉쿖랢닺샻죳싊뫍쎿막쫕틦쿠뷼뗄42볒짏쫐릫쮾ퟷ캪엤짺뗄뿉쓜탔풽킡뛔퇹놾ꆣ퇹놾뗄쫽뻝좫늿룹뻝뻞뎱톶췸폐맘ퟷ캪웳튵췢늿죋,뛀솢뚭쫂쇋뷢웳튵뗄훷튪쟾쇏헻샭뗃돶,퓋폃Excel뫍뷸탐쿠맘뒦샭ꆣ29
ꆡꆡꆡꆡꆡꆡꆡꆡꆡꆡꆡꆡꆡꆡꆡ쓏뺩얩튵듳톧톧놨(짧믡뿆톧냦)ꆡꆡꆡꆡꆡꆡꆡꆡꆡꆡꆡꆡꆡꆡꆡ뗚6뻭42볒뎬쓜솦엉쿖릫쮾럖늼퓚쪮룶탐튵,웤훐뷼60%뗄릫쮾엉랢뗄쎿막쿖뷰막샻퓚풪(몬훆퓬튵ퟮ뛠캪23볒,뇈샽캪%,웤쯻탐튵볒풪)틔쿂(뻟쳥쟩뿶볻뇭3)ꆣ뎬쓜솦엉쿖릫쮾쫽뷏짙ꆢ뇈샽늻듳(뻟쳥쟩뿶볻뇭1)ꆣ뗄쎿막쫕틦웕뇩늻룟,웤훐17볒릫쮾뗄쎿막쫕틦퓚42볒뎬쓜솦엉쿖뗄릫쮾훐폐31볒릫쮾뗄늻뎬맽풪;8볒릫쮾뗄쎿막쫕틦퓚떽쎿막쿖뷰막샻듳폚쎿막뺭펪뺻쿖뷰쇷솿,뇈샽캪풪횮볤;쎿막쫕틦뎬맽풪뗄횻폐6볒릫쮾ꆣ뎬%,뎬풽쿖뷰횧뢶쓜솦뗄뎬쓜솦엉쿖쟩뿶뇈쓜솦엉쿖릫쮾펯샻쓜솦뷏닮(뻟쳥쟩뿶볻뇭4)ꆣ뷏퇏훘(뻟쳥쟩뿶볻뇭2)ꆣ냫쫽뎬쓜솦엉쿖릫쮾뗄쎿막뺭펪뺻쿖뷰쇷솿킡폚뎬쓜솦엉쿖릫쮾엉랢뗄쎿막쿖뷰막샻뷏뗍,뷓뗈폚0(뻟쳥쟩뿶볻뇭5)ꆣ뇭1ꆡ뎬쓜솦엉쿖탐튵럖늼랿뗘닺탐튵뾪랢폫엺랢탅쾢퓋쫤짧믡뺭펪튵쇣쫛벼쫵닖뒢럾컱붨훾튵얩쇖쮮뗧쓁폦쎺웸ퟛ뫏샠훆퓬튵볒쫽14231121423뇈샽%%%%%%%%%%ꆡꆡ쫽뻝살풴:룹뻝뻞뎱톶췸쿠맘쇏헻샭뗃돶ꆣ뇭2ꆡ뎬쓜솦엉쿖쟩뿶쎿막쿖뷰막샻>쎿막쫕틦쎿막쿖뷰막샻>쎿막뺭펪뺻쿖뷰쇷솿춬쪱럻뫏솽룶쳵볾볒쫽11265뇈샽%%%ꆡꆡ쫽뻝살풴:룹뻝뻞뎱톶췸쿠맘쇏헻샭뗃돶ꆣ뇭3ꆡ뎬쓜솦엉쿖릫쮾쎿막쿖뷰막샻쟸볤럖늼쟸볤뎬쓜솦엉쿖릫쮾볒쫽뇈샽쎿막쿖뷰막샻><쎿막쿖뷰막샻ꇜ%<쎿막쿖뷰막샻ꇜ%<쎿막쿖뷰막샻ꇜ%<쎿막쿖뷰막샻ꇜ%0<쎿막쿖뷰막샻ꇜ%뫏볆42100%ꆡꆡ쫽뻝살풴:룹뻝뻞뎱톶췸쿠맘쇏헻샭뗃돶ꆣ뇭4ꆡ뎬쓜솦엉쿖릫쮾쎿막쫕틦쟸볤럖늼쟸볤뎬쓜솦엉쿖릫쮾볒쫽뇈샽쎿막쫕틦>%<쎿막쫕틦ꇜ<쎿막쫕틦ꇜ%<쎿막쫕틦ꇜ%<쎿막쫕틦ꇜ%<쎿막쫕틦ꇜ%0<쎿막쫕틦ꇜ%뫏볆42100%ꆡꆡ쫽뻝살풴:룹뻝뻞뎱톶췸쿠맘쇏헻샭뗃돶ꆣ30
뗚3웚ꆡꆡꆡꆡꆡꆡꆡꆡꆡ췵뮳쏷,쪷쿾쏷:컒맺짏쫐릫쮾뎬쓜솦엉쿖뗄쪵횤퇐뺿ꆡꆡꆡꆡꆡꆡꆡꆡꆡꆡꆡꆡꆡꆡꆡ뇭5ꆡ뎬쓜솦엉쿖릫쮾쎿막뺭펪뺻쿖뷰쇷솿쟸볤럖늼쟸볤뎬쓜솦엉쿖릫쮾볒쫽뇈샽쎿막뺭펪뺻쿖뷰쇷솿>%<쎿막뺭펪뺻쿖뷰쇷솿ꇜ%0<쎿막뺭펪뺻쿖뷰쇷솿ꇜ%-1<쎿막뺭펪뺻쿖뷰쇷솿ꇜ%-2<쎿막뺭펪뺻쿖뷰쇷솿ꇜ%뫏볆42100%ꆡꆡ쫽뻝살풴:룹뻝뻞뎱톶췸쿠맘쇏헻샭뗃돶ꆣ2.쒣탍붨솢폫뇤솿뗄톡좡뇈샽ꆢ돉뎤탔ꆢ짏쫐쓪쿞쫇틬뎣룟엉쿖뗄쿔훸탔펰평폚놾컄퇐뺿뗄쫇뎬쓜솦엉쿖컊쳢,쫴폚퇐뺿쿬틲쯘ꆣ[4]풬쳬죙뗈춨맽쪵횤랢쿖뎬엉쿖쓜솦폫샫즢틲뇤솿뫍튻ퟩퟔ뇤솿횮볤뗄맘쾵컊쳢,틲듋닉짏쫐쓪쿞뢺쿠맘ꆢ폫막좨벯훐뛈헽쿠맘ꆣ[5]틲듋,폃L캪쇋뇜쏢뇤솿좱쪧컊쳢,놾컄틽죫막좨벯훐뛈ꆢ릫ogistic쒣탍ꆣ뎬쓜솦엉쿖늻뷶쫜떽놾컄볙짨쯹짦벰뗄뷢쫍뇤솿뗄펰쿬,뮹쫜떽웤쯻틲쯘뗄펰쿬ꆣ쮾막놾맦쒣ꆢ짏쫐쓪쿞ꆢ돉뎤탔뗈ퟷ캪뿘훆뇤솿ꆣ컩샻쓈뗈춨맽쪵횤퇐뺿랢쿖릫쮾막놾맦쒣ꆢ쇷춨막뇤솿뚨틥볻뇭6ꆣ뇭6ꆡ뇤솿뚨틥놻뷢쫍뇤솿Y떱짏쫐릫쮾뗄엉쿖쫴폚뎬쓜솦엉쿖쪱Y=1,웤쯻쟩뿶Y=0BOARD뚭쫂믡ퟜ죋쫽DIRECTOR뛀솢뚭쫂죋쫽/뚭쫂믡ퟜ죋쫽뷢쫍뇤솿MEETING뛀솢뚭쫂쟗ퟔ돶쾯믡틩듎쫽/뛀솢뚭쫂펦돶쾯믡틩듎쫽SUPER볠쫂믡ퟜ죋쫽CM뚭쫂ꆢ볠쫂ꆢ뺭샭뗄쓪놨돪ퟜ뛮뗄ퟔ좻뛔쫽BCISCEO떱뚭쫂뎤볦죎ퟜ뺭샭(ퟜ닃)쪱좡1,럱퓲좡0Z4Z4=CR1/(CR2+CR3+CR4+CR5)LIQAR쇷춨A막/ퟜ막놾쫽뿘훆뇤솿SIZEퟜ막놾뗄ퟔ좻뛔쫽CORPYEAR짏쫐쓪쿞뗄ퟔ좻뛔쫽GROW(놾쓪훷펪튵컱쫕죫-짏쓪훷펪튵컱쫕죫)/짏쓪훷펪튵컱쫕죫ꆡ퓚뇤솿뚨틥뗄믹뒡짏,붨솢Logistic쒣탍죧쿂:3.쿠맘탔볬퇩ln[p/(1-p)]=b0+b1BOARD+캪쇋뇜쏢뷢쫍뇤솿폫뿘훆뇤솿듦퓚뛠훘릲쿟b2DIRECTOR+b3MEETING+b4SUPER+b5CM+탔,뛔쯼쏇뷸탐쿠맘탔볬퇩,볬퇩뷡맻쿔쪾,쯼쏇횮b6BCISCEO+b7Z4+b8LIQAR+b9SIZE+볤뗄쿠맘쾵쫽ퟮ룟뗄튲늻뎬맽,틲듋뿉틔죏캪b10CORPYEAR+b11GROW+ꛅ쯼쏇횮볤벸뫵늻듦퓚뛠훘릲쿟탔(볬퇩뷡맻볻뇭웤훐p=P(Y=1),쫇Y=1쪱뗄룅싊ꆣ7)ꆣ뇭7ꆡ쿠맘탔볬퇩뷡맻BOARDDIRECTORMEETINGSUPERCMBCISCEOz4LIQARSIZECORPYEARGROWBOARDꆡꆡꆡ.052ꆡ1SUPERꆡꆡ.ꆡ1CMꆡꆡ.053ꆡ.072ꆡ.110ꆡ1BCISCEOꆡ.011ꆡ.ꆡ131
ꆡꆡꆡꆡꆡꆡꆡꆡꆡꆡꆡꆡꆡꆡꆡ쓏뺩얩튵듳톧톧놨(짧믡뿆톧냦)ꆡꆡꆡꆡꆡꆡꆡꆡꆡꆡꆡꆡꆡꆡꆡ뗚6뻭ꆡ.ꆡꆡ.ꆡ1SIZEꆡ.152ꆡꆡꆡꆡ.ꆡꆡ.051ꆡ.ꆡ.ꆡ1YEARGROWꆡ.ꆡ.050ꆡ.140ꆡ.ꆡ.ꆡꆡ힢333:뇭쪾퓚1%뗄쮮욽짏쿔훸(쮫캲볬퇩33),뇭쪾퓚5%뗄쮮욽짏쿔훸(쮫캲볬퇩)ꆣ믘맩뻶닟ꆣ붫쯹폐뇤솿듸죫L(2)뛀솢뚭쫂뇈샽뫍뛀솢뚭쫂돶쟚싊뗄럻뫅ogistic쒣탍,뷡맻쿪볻뇭8ꆣ믘맩뷡맻쿔쪾,믘맩랽돌퓚5%쿔훸탔쮮욽짏캪헽,쮵쏷뛀솢뚭쫂뇈샽풽룟ꆢ뛀솢뚭쫂돶쟚싊풽춨맽쇋볬퇩룟,뎬쓜솦엉쿖랢짺뗄뿉쓜탔풽듳,잰헟퓚5%뗄,쮵쏷믘맩랽돌뻟폐뷏잿뗄뷢쫍틢틥ꆣ뻟쳥럖컶뿉틔랢쿖쮮욽짏쿔훸,뫳헟쎻폐춨맽쿔훸탔볬퇩ꆣ헢튻뷡맻:폫볙짨2ꆢ볙짨3잡잡쿠랴ꆣ돶쿖헢훖쟩뿶쫇평폚(1)뚭쫂믡맦쒣뗄럻뫅캪헽,쮵쏷뚭쫂믡맦쒣풽듳,뎬쓜솦엉쿖랢짺뗄뿉쓜탔풽듳ꆣ떫헢훖맘쾵컒맺짏쫐릫쮾뚭쫂믡듳뚼평듳막뚫쯹뿘훆,뛀솢뚭쎻폐춨맽쿔훸탔볬퇩쫂죋톡튻냣평듳막뚫쯹뻶뚨,뛀솢뚭쫂늻ꆰ뛀솢ꆱ,,쮵쏷볙짨1횻쓜뗃떽늿럖퇩횤,폫듳탍뚭쫂믡쿠뇈킡탍뚭쫂믡뿉쓜믡뻟폐룼룟쓑틔퓚뚭쫂믡뻶닟맽돌훐랢믓볠맜ퟷ폃ꆣ뗄킧싊ꆢ룼폐샻폚뚭쫂믡ퟶ돶뿆톧뫏샭뗄막샻럖엤뇭8ꆡLogistic믘맩뷡맻풤웚럻뫅쾵쫽뇪ힼ닮Wald쿔훸탔쮮욽CONSTANT?ꆡꆡ+ꆡꆡꆡꆡꆡ-ꆡꆡꆡꆡꆡ.-ꆡꆡꆡ+ꆡꆡꆡ.+ꆡꆡꆡ+ꆡꆡꆡꆡꆡꆡꆡꆡꆡꆡꆡ힢33:뇭쪾퓚5%쮮욽짏쿔훸3(쮫캲볬퇩),뇭쪾퓚10%뗄쮮욽짏쿔훸(쮫캲볬퇩)ꆣꆡꆡ(3)볠쫂믡맦쒣뗄럻뫅캪뢺,쮵쏷볠쫂믡맦쒣(4)맜샭닣ퟜ킽돪뗄럻뫅캪헽,쮵쏷맜샭닣ퟜ풽듳,뎬쓜솦엉쿖돶쿖뗄뿉쓜탔풽킡ꆣ떫헢훖맘쾵킽돪풽룟,랢짺뎬쓜솦엉쿖뗄뿉쓜탔풽룟,늢쟒퓚쎻폐춨맽쿔훸탔볬퇩,쮵쏷볠쫂믡돉풱풽뛠,풽폐5%뗄쮮욽짏쿔훸ꆣ헢폫볙짨5쿠랴,쮵쏷쒿잰컒샻폚볠뚽뚭쫂믡ퟶ돶뿆톧뫏샭뗄막샻럖엤뻶닟뗄맺짏쫐릫쮾뗄킽돪훆뛈늢캴쓜탎돉폐킧뗄벤샸믺볙짨믹놾짏쫇돉솢뗄,헢늿럖퇩횤볙짨4ꆣ훆,늻쓜벤샸폫풼쫸맜샭닣뗄뻶닟탐캪ꆣ32
뗚3웚ꆡꆡꆡꆡꆡꆡꆡꆡꆡ췵뮳쏷,쪷쿾쏷:컒맺짏쫐릫쮾뎬쓜솦엉쿖뗄쪵횤퇐뺿ꆡꆡꆡꆡꆡꆡꆡꆡꆡꆡꆡꆡꆡꆡꆡ(5)솽횰뫏튻뗄럻뫅캪헽,쮵쏷솽횰뫏튻쪱랢췢,쫇럱뮹폐웤쯻펰쿬틲쯘,탨튪ퟷ뷸튻늽퇐뺿ꆣ짺뎬쓜솦엉쿖뗄뿉쓜탔뷏듳,떫쎻폐춨맽쿔훸탔볬퇩ꆣ헢늿럖퇩횤쇋볙짨닎뾼컄쿗:6,쮵쏷솽횰뫏튻뿉쓜믡떼훂릫쮾훎샭킧싊뗍쿂,펰쿬뚭쫂믡막샻뻶닟뗄뿆톧[1]뚭샨쏷.잳컶짏쫐릫쮾틬뎣엉쿖[J].닆믡퓂뾯,2004탔ꆣ(10):55-56.[2]뛎엠퇴.2002쓪짏쫐릫쮾룟엉쿖쿖쿳퇐뺿[J].뷰죚폫쯄ꆢ퇐뺿뷡싛폫듦퓚뗄뻖쿞탔뺭볃,2002(7):5-7.[3]퇮탋좫,샮믛쇡.컒맺짏쫐릫쮾룟엉쿖:샭싛폫횤뻝[J].쪯뫓ퟓ듳톧톧놨:헜톧짧믡뿆톧냦,2005(1):49쪵횤퇐뺿랢쿖,릫쮾훎샭뷡릹쫇짏쫐릫쮾랢짺-52.뎬쓜솦엉쿖탐캪뗄훘튪펰쿬틲쯘:짏쫐릫쮾뛀솢뚭[4]컩샻쓈,룟잿,역퇠.훐맺짏쫐릫쮾ꆰ틬뎣룟엉쿖ꆱ펰쿬쫂뇈샽풽룟ꆢ뛀솢뚭쫂뗄돶쟚싊풽룟ꆢ룟맜킽돪풽틲쯘퇐뺿[J],뺭볃뿆톧,2003(1):31-42.룟[5]풬쳬죙,쯕뫬쇁.짏쫐릫쮾뎬쓜솦엉쿖뗄쪵횤퇐뺿,랢짺뎬쓜솦엉쿖뗄뿉쓜탔풽듳;뷏킡맦쒣뗄뚭쫂믡뫍뷏듳맦쒣뗄볠쫂믡,폐샻폚릫쮾ퟶ돶뫏샭뗄[J].믡볆퇐뺿,2004(10):63-70.막샻럖엤뻶닟;뚭쫂뎤폫ퟜ뺭샭솽횰뫏튻뇈뷏죝틗[6]돂탅풪,돂뚬뮪,쪱탱.릫쮾훎샭폫쿖뷰막샻:믹폚런즽랢짺뎬쓜솦엉쿖ꆣ헢튻퇐뺿뷡맻,튻랽쏦뇭쏷쒿잰헕쏷뗄낸샽퇐뺿[J].맜샭쫀뷧,2003(8):118-126.컒맺짏쫐릫쮾뗄뛀솢뚭쫂훆뛈뫍룟맜킽돪훆뛈늢[7]횣욽.싛막샻헾닟럖컶훐릫쮾훎샭뷡릹틲쯘뗄펰쿬[J].뺭볃쪦,2004(11):136-137.쎻폐쓜랢믓펦폐뗄ퟷ폃,탨튪뷸튻늽붡좫뛀솢뚭쫂[8]탬톩럒,볍붨퓃.릫쮾훎샭폫짏쫐릫쮾막샻헾닟[J].뫍룟맜뗄벤샸뫍풼쫸믺훆ꆣ붨솢뿆톧뫏샭뗄짏쫐탂뷰죚,2005(1):56-58.릫쮾벨킧움볛훆뛈뫍룟맜뗄킽돪훆뛈;쇭튻랽쏦뇭[9]톦ퟦ퓆,믆춮.뚭쫂믡ꆢ볠쫂믡훆뛈쳘헷폫믡볆탅쾢훊쏷쫊뛈맦쒣뗄뚭쫂믡벰볠쫂믡붫폐샻폚짏쫐릫쮾솿ꆪꆪꆪ살ퟔ훐맺놾쫐뎡뗄뺭퇩럖컶[J].닆뺭샭싛훎샭뷡릹뗄췪짆,릫쮾훎샭뷡릹뗄폅뮯폐샻폚훆풼폫쪵볹,2004,25(130):84-89.짏쫐릫쮾뗄뎬쓜솦엉쿖탐캪ꆣ[10]폚뚫훇,뚭쫂믡ꆢ릫쮾훎샭폫벨킧-뛔훐맺짏쫐릫쮾놾컄평폚횻톡좡쇋뗄뺭퇩럖컶[J].훐맺짧믡뿆톧,2003(3):쓪짮쫐랢짺뎬쓜솦엉쿖뗄릫쮾캪퇐뺿퇹놾,쎻폐뾼싇뮦쫐뗄쟩탎,쟒맛[11]MARTINL,달뗄쫽뻝횻폐튻쓪,헢뿉쓜믡펰쿬떽뷡싛뗄뿉뾿CorporateGovernance[J].BusinessLawyer,1992(1):59-77.탔ꆣ듋췢,펰쿬짏쫐릫쮾뎬쓜솦엉쿖탐캪뗄틲쯘뇈(퓰죎뇠벭ꆡ쯎톩량)뷏뢴퓓,돽쇋놾컄쯹쳖싛뗄릫쮾훎샭뷡릹뗈뇤솿틔AnempiricalstudyontheinfluentialfactorsinultraΟabilitycashdividendsΟaperspectiveofcorporategovernancestructureWANGHuaiΟming,SHIXiaoΟming(CollegeofEconomicsandManagement,NanjingAgriculturalUniversity,Nanjing210095,China)Abstract:AsmoreandmoreChineselistedcompaniesgrantcashdividendsafter2000,itisnoteworthythatsomecompaniesgrantultraΟΟabilitycashdividendslistedinmainmarketofShenzhenStockExchangein2004forasamplingstudy,,theauthorsfindthatcorporategovernancestructureisanimportantfactorinfluencingwhetherlistedcompaniesgrantultraΟ,theratioofindependentdirectorsandtheseniormanagers’compensationaffectultraΟ’behaviorofultraΟ:corporategovernancestructure;ultraΟabilitycashdividends;empiricalstudy33
