잱퓚닺돶맀볆뗄컄쿗ퟛ쫶/쇵/1-5 잱퓚닺돶맀볆뗄컄쿗ퟛ쫶 쇵* 햪튪ꎺ놾컄뛔맺쓚ꆢ췢맘폚잱퓚닺돶뗄볆쯣랽램뷸탐쇋ퟛ쫶ꆣ퓚듋믹뒡짏ꎬ횸돶쇋쒿잰컒맺퓚잱퓚닺돶뗄볆쯣짏쯹듦퓚뗄컊쳢ꆣ 맘볼듊ꎺ잱퓚닺돶ꆢ닺돶좱뿚ꆢ랽램 JEL럖샠ꎺO4ꎬN1ꎬC0 1.틽퇔 잱퓚닺돶튻냣쫇횸ꎺ럇볓쯙춨믵엲헍뗄쟩뿶쿂ꎬ쿖폐뗄샍뚯솦ꆢ놾뫍벼쫵쯹쓜쪵쿖뗄짺닺쮮욽ꆣ쪵볊닺돶폫잱퓚닺돶뗄닮캪닺돶좱뿚ꎬ쯼랴펳쇋ퟜ탨쟳뫍ퟜ릩룸횮볤뗄닮틬ꆣ틲듋ꎬ잱퓚닺돶뗄볆쯣뫍헾닟훆뚨쏜쟐쿠맘ꎬ죴쪵볊닺돶듳폚잱퓚닺돶ꎬ퓲틢캶ퟅퟜ탨쟳듳폚ퟜ릩룸ꎬ쪹뗃춨믵엲헍톹솦퓶볓ꎬ헾닟훆뚨헟믡닉좡듓뷴뗄닆헾ꆢ믵뇒뗈헾닟ꎬ틔럀횹랢짺뺭볃맽죈ꆣ랴횮ꎬ죧맻쪵볊닺돶킡폚잱퓚닺돶ꎬ퓲틢캶ퟅퟜ탨쟳킡폚ퟜ릩룸ꎬ헢쪱춨헍톹솦복쟡ꎬ춨뎣헾닟훆뚨헟믡닉좡뿭쯉뗄닆헾ꆢ믵뇒뗈헾닟ꎬ틔삭뚯탨쟳ꎬ럀횹평폚폐킧탨쟳늻ퟣ듸살뗄춨믵뷴쯵ꆣ 쯹틔ꎬힼ좷맀볆잱퓚닺돶ꆢ볆쯣닺돶좱뿚뛔폚헾닟훆뚨헟훆뚨잡떱뗄뫪맛뺭볃헾닟쫇훁맘훘튪뗄ꆣNelson and Nikolov (2001) 틔펢맺20쫀볍70뫍80쓪듺뗄샽ퟓ쮵쏷ꎬ평폚떱쪱펢맺쎻폐튻룶맙랽죏뿉뗄볆쯣잱퓚닺돶뗄랽램ꎬ잱퓚닺돶횻쫇룹뻝헾뢮짹쏷뫍릫늼쫽뻝ퟷ돶듳룅뗄맀볆ꎬ헢쪹뗃퓚70뫍80쓪듺룟맀쇋떱쪱펢맺뗄잱퓚닺돶ꎬ듭컳뗄죏캪떱쪱뗄뢺닺돶좱뿚맽듳ꎬ펢맺떱뻖볌탸닉좡뿭쯉뗄믵뇒헾닟ꎬ쎻폐뷸탐벰쪱뗘뗷헻ꎬ떼훂춨믵엲헍컊쳢뗄뛱뮯ꆣ 놾컄쫇튻욪맘폚맺쓚ꆢ췢뗄잱퓚닺돶볆쯣뗄컄쿗ퟛ쫶ꆣ틔쿂붫쫗쿈쾵춳뷩짜잱퓚닺돶뗄볆쯣랽램ꎬ틔벰맺췢맙랽ퟩ횯뗄뻟쳥닙ퟷꎻ좻뫳ꎬ쇐뻙돶컒맺퓚잱퓚닺돶볆쯣짏뗄쿖폐돉맻ꎻퟮ뫳ꎬퟜ뷡컒맺잱퓚닺돶볆쯣쯹쏦쇙뗄컊쳢뫍삧쓑ꆣ 2.잱퓚닺돶뗄볆쯣랽램 ퟮ퓧뛔잱퓚닺돶뷸탐맀볆뗄쫇냂뿏ꎨOkun,1962ꎩꆣ쯻떱쪱닉폃쇋솽훖맀볆랽램뛔잱퓚닺돶뷸탐맀볆ꎺ튻쫇샻폃쿟탔쟷쫆맀볆잱퓚닺돶ꎻ뛾쫇퓚ퟔ좻쪧튵싊뗄볙짨잰쳡쿂맀볆잱퓚닺돶ꆣ ퟜ뗄살쮵ꎬ뿉틔붫맀볆잱퓚닺돶뗄랽램럖캪솽샠ꎺ튻샠쫇춳볆럖뷢쟷쫆램ꎬ쇭튻샠쫇뺭볃뷡릹맘쾵맀볆램ꆣ잰헟쫔춼냑쪱볤탲쇐럖뷢캪폀뻃탔돉럖뫍훜웚탔돉럖ꎻ뛸뫳헟퓲쫔춼폃뺭볃샭싛럖샫돶뷡릹탔뫍훜웚탔틲쯘뛔닺돶뗄펰쿬ꆣ 쿟탔쟷쫆램쫇ퟮ볲떥뗄맀볆잱퓚닺돶뗄랽램ꎬTaylorꎨ1993ꎩ퓚쳡돶첩샕맦퓲쪱ꎬ뻍닉 * 놾컄뗃떽쇋훐맺짧믡뿆톧풺쫀뷧뺭볃춳볆훘뗣톧뿆붨짨뺭럑뗄훺ꆣ ퟷ헟솪쾵랽쪽ꎺrui_liu@ ꆶ쫀뷧뺭볃춳볆퇐뺿ꆷ2004쓪뗚1웚 뗚1튳
잱퓚닺돶맀볆뗄컄쿗ퟛ쫶/쇵/1-5 폃쿟탔쟷쫆맀볆램붫헦쪵GDP뗄뛔쫽횵럖뷢뗃떽잱퓚닺돶ꆣ쿟탔쪱볤쟷쫆램볆쯣볲뇣ꎬ떫쫇ꎬ평폚헢훖랽램쎻폐뾼싇닺돶탲쇐뗄쫽뻝쳘탔ꎬ죧럇욽컈탔ꎬ퓚떱뷱뗄쪵볹훐틑뫜짙펦폃ꆣ 뺭볃톧볒랢쿖탭뛠뺭볃쪱볤탲쇐쪵볊짏쫇럇욽컈뗄ꎬ헢쪹뗃쿟탔쟷쫆볙짨늻돉솢ꎬ폚쫇튻킩뺭볃톧볒뾪쪼첽뺿탂뗄럖뷢쪱볤탲쇐뗄랽램ꆣBeveridge뫍Nelsonꎨ1981ꎩ쳡돶쇋튻훖뷨훺폚ARIMA랽램냑럇욽컈쪱볤탲쇐럖뷢캪쟷쫆돉럖뫍훜웚탔돉럖뗄BN럖뷢랽램ꎻ뫍BN럖뷢램쿠쯆ꎬUCꆪ뾨뛻싼싋늨램ꎬ좫돆늻뿉볻돉럖ꎨUnobserved-componentꎬ볲돆UCꎩꆪ뾨뛻싼싋늨램ꎬHarveyꎨ1989ꎩퟮ쿈쪹폃헢훖랽램맀볆잱퓚닺돶뫍닺돶좱뿚ꎬ쯼뗄믹놾쮼쿫쫇냑닺돶탲쇐y뾴ퟷ쫇늻뿉볻뗄쟷쫆돉럖ꎨ벴잱퓚닺돶ꎩT폫훜웚돉럖ꎨ벴닺돶좱뿚ꎩ ttc횮뫍ꎻHodrick and Prescottꎨ1997ꎩ쳡돶뗄HP싋늨쫇튻훖쪱볤탲쇐퓚ힴ첬뿕볤뗄럖뷢랽t램ꎬ쿠떱폚벫킡뮯늨뚯랽닮ꎬ놻맣랺펦폃떽뫪맛뺭볃뇤솿돉럖뗄럖뷢짏ꆣ헢킩랽램냑쪱볤탲쇐뗄럇욽컈탔뾼싇떽럖뷢맽돌훐ꎬ룄뷸쇋쿟탔쟷쫆램ꆣ떫헢킩랽램웕뇩듦퓚튻킩좱뗣ꎺ1ꆢ쯹톡좡뗄욽뮬좨쫽믲돵쪼횵튻냣뚼쫇뾿훷맛뺭퇩에뛏뗃떽뗄ꎬ헢믡뛔닺돶좱뿚뫍잱퓚닺돶뗄릹돉뫍럖늼닺짺뫜듳뗄펰쿬ꎻ2ꆢ뗃떽뗄닺돶좱뿚뫍잱퓚닺돶퓚퇹놾돵웚뫍쒩웚춨뎣듦퓚욫닮ꎬ튲늻샻폚뷸탐풤닢럖컶ꆣ3ꆢ듋췢ꎬ헢킩럖뷢램춨뎣뚼뛔폚퇹놾쫽뻝뎤뛈럇뎣쏴룐ꆣ 춨맽뺭볃뷡릹맘쾵맀볆잱퓚닺돶ꎬퟮ웕뇩뗄랽램쫇짺닺몯쫽램ꆣ짺닺몯쫽램?production function approachⰠ偆䄩죏캪ꎬ닺돶좡뻶폚쿂쇐죽룶틲쯘ꎺㄮ놾춶죫믲쿖폐놾듦솿?ꎻ㈮샍뚯춶죫?ꎻ㌮?좫튪쯘짺닺싊⡔䙐??ꆣ잱퓚닺돶뿉틔춨맽헢킩뇤솿횮볤뗄맘쾵맀볆뗃떽ꆣ짺닺몯쫽램뗄ퟮ듳폅뗣퓚폚맀쯣잱퓚닺돶쪱ꎬ좫쏦뾼싇쇋짺닺튪쯘샻폃싊뫍벼쫵뷸늽뗄펰쿬ꎬ돤럖쳥쿖쇋잱퓚닺돶뗄릩룸쏦쳘헷ꎬ쯹틔헢훖랽램튲쫇쒿잰맺볊짏쪹폃ퟮ뛠뗄랽램ꆣ떫쫇ꎬ헢훖맀쯣랽램뗄맽돌뷏캪뢴퓓ꎬ뛔쫽뻝뗄튪쟳뇈뷏룟ꆣSVARꎨStructural vector autoregressionꎩ램ꎬ쫇평Blanchard and Quahꎨ1989ꎩ쳡돶뗄ꆣ룃랽램뗄믹놾쮼쿫쫇ꎬ쟷쫆뫍훜웚뗄훷튪돉틲풵ퟔ늻춬뗄쫂컯ꆣ샽죧ꎬ뿉틔죏캪쟷쫆뇤뚯훷튪쫇평폚벼쫵룯탂ꎬ뛸훜웚탔뇤뚯퓲쫇탨쟳돥믷뗄뷡맻ꆣ퓚헢훖쟩뿶쿂ꎬ폐뇘튪듓쫽뻝훐쳡좡솽훖늻춬샠탍뗄돥믷ꆣBlanchard and Quahꎨ1989ꎩ붨틩뛔튻룶럇욽컈뇤솿ꎨGDPꎩ뫍튻룶믲죴룉룶욽컈뇤솿ꎨ죧쪧튵싊뗈ꎩ뷸탐VAR럖컶ꎬ춨맽뛔닐닮뷸탐럖뷢뗃떽쿠뮥뛀솢뗄쟷쫆돉럖뫍훜웚돉럖ꆣ듋췢ꎬ뮹폐뛠뇤솿쾵춳쒣탍램ꎬ쯼튲쫇룹뻝뺭볃샭싛살뷢쫍닺돶ꆢ쪧튵뫍춨믵엲헍뗄맘쾵ꆣ헢훖랽램튻냣쫇룹뻝냂뿏뚨싉뫍럆샻웕쮹쟺쿟붨솢뛠뇤솿쾵춳랽돌ퟩꎬ솪뫏맀볆돶잱퓚닺돶뫍NAIRUꎨ럇볓쯙춨믵엲헍뗄쪧튵싊ꎩꆣAdam뫍Coeꎨ1990ꎩꎬKuttnerꎨ1994ꎩꎬApel and Janssonꎨ1997ꎩ뚼펦폃헢훖랽램뛔잱퓚닺돶뷸탐맽맀볆ꆣ 3.튻킩맙랽ퟩ횯맀볆잱퓚닺돶뗄랽램 쿂쏦뷩짜튻킩맙랽ퟩ횯뗄잱퓚닺돶맀볆랽램ꎺ쏀맺맺믡풤쯣냬릫쫒ꎨCBOꎩ닉폃뗄쫇짺닺몯쫽랽램ꎬ틔쯷싥뺭볃퓶뎤쒣탍캪믹뒡ꎬ쫗쿈폃뺭볃맘쾵맀볆샍뚯솦뫍좫튪쯘짺닺싊뗄쟷쫆ꎬ좻뫳붫맀볆돶뗄쟷쫆솬춬놾쫤죫1튻웰볆쯣돶잱퓚GDPꎻ뫍CBO늻춬ꎬ맺볊믵뇒 1 CBOꎨ2004ꎩ죏캪놾쫤죫늻탨튪뷸탐쟷쫆럖뷢ꆣ ꆶ쫀뷧뺭볃춳볆퇐뺿ꆷ2004쓪뗚1웚 뗚2튳
잱퓚닺돶맀볆뗄컄쿗ퟛ쫶/쇵/1-5 믹뷰ퟩ횯ꎨIMFꎩ닉폃럖뛎쟷쫆맀볆램맀볆잱퓚닺돶ꎬ볙뚨퓚쳘뚨뷡릹뗣짏잱퓚닺돶퓶뎤싊쫇뇤뮯뗄ꎬIMF쫗쿈폃뗝맩닐닮볬퇩벾뛈GDP뗄춻웆뗣ꎬ좻뫳퓙맀볆늻춬뷗뛎뗄잱퓚닺돶퓶뎤싊ꎻ뺭볃뫏ퟷ폫랢햹ퟩ횯ꎨOECDꎩ뗄맀볆랽램쫇ꎬ쫗쿈룹뻝쮫튪쯘뗄뗀룱삭쮹짺닺몯쫽붨솢뗄랽돌맀볆샍뚯럝뛮ꎬ좻뫳폃H-P싋늨붫짏쏦랽돌뗄닐닮욽뮬뗃떽닐닮뗄쟷쫆횵ꎬ벴ꎬ쟷쫆튪쯘짺닺싊ꎬퟮ뫳붫쟷쫆튪쯘짺닺싊ꆢ쪵볊놾뫍잱퓚뻍튵튻웰듸믘떽짺닺몯쫽랽돌뗃떽잱퓚닺돶ꆣ 듓짏쏦뗄뷩짜뾴ꎬ틔뺭볃샭싛캪틀뻝뗄짺닺몯쫽램쫇맙랽ퟩ횯웕뇩죏춬뗄랽램ꆣ 4.컒맺잱퓚닺돶뗄볆쯣 퓚컒맺ꎬ볆쯣잱퓚닺돶뗄랽램튲믹놾뿉틔럖캪잰쏦쯹쮵뗄솽샠ꆣ튻늿럖톧헟춨맽춳볆랽램럖뷢뗃떽잱퓚닺돶ꎺ쇵뇳뫍헅뮳쟥ꎨ2001ꎩ틔1992쓪뗚1벾뛈떽2001쓪뗚1벾뛈캪춳볆쫽뻝뗄퇹놾쟸볤ꎬ럖뇰폃쿟탔쟷쫆램ꆢHP싋늨랽램ꆢ떥뇤솿ힴ첬뿕볤ꆪ뾨뛻싼싋늨랽램틔벰뛠뇤솿ힴ첬뿕볤ꆪ뾨뛻싼싋늨랽램뷸탐볆쯣ꎬ풤닢뗃떽컒맺뗄잱퓚GDP쓪뻹퓶뎤싊럖뇰캪%ꆢ%ꆢ%뫍%ꎬ쯻쏇죏캪떥/뛠뇤솿ힴ첬뿕볤ꆪ뾨뛻싼싋늨랽램쫇ퟮ뫏쫊뗄랽램ꎻ킻욽뫍싞탛ꎨ2002ꎩ폃쿟탔쟷쫆살맀볆잱퓚닺돶ꎬ평폚닺돶쮮욽뇭쿖돶뫜잿뗄벾뷚늨뚯쳘뗣ꎬ퓚폃쿟탔맀볆쪱볓죫쇋벾뷚탔탩쓢뇤솿ꎬ붫헦쪵GDP뗄ퟔ좻뛔쫽횵폫뎣쫽쿮ꆢ쪱볤쟷쫆쿮뫍탩쓢뇤솿ퟷ믘맩ꎬ뗃떽잱퓚닺돶뫍닺돶좱뿚ꎻ룟쳺쎷ꆢ쇵폱뫬뫍췵뷰쏷ꎨ2003ꎩ럖뇰폃H-P싋늨랽램뫍쪱뇤닎쫽쒣탍ꎨTime-varying Parameter Modelꎩ좥돽벾뷚탔뇤뮯뫍뺭볃뷡릹탔뇤뮯뗃떽잱퓚뗄닺돶뫍닺돶좱뿚ꆣ 뮹폐튻킩톧헟닉폃뺭볃샭싛살본뚨돶컒맺뗄잱퓚닺돶ꆣ짲샻짺ꎨ1999ꎩ닉폃쓪뛈쫽뻝ꎬ춨맽맀볆ퟜ솿짺닺몯쫽살맀볆컒맺뗄잱퓚닺돶ꎻ췴뫬뻔ꎨ2002ꎩ닉폃ꆰ죽뷇탎ꆱퟜ릩룸쟺쿟뗄뇭듯탎쪽ꎬ춨맽믘맩뗃떽ꆰ컞볓쯙춨믵엲헍ꆱ뗄뺭볃퓶뎤싊ꎬ춨맽럖뇰폃GDP쯵복횸쫽ꆢ쇣쫛컯볛횸쫽뫍쿻럑컯볛횸쫽맀쯣뗃떽뗄쪵볊GDP잱퓚퓶뎤싊럖뇰캪%ꆢ%뫍%ꎬ쯻쏇뺭맽쳖싛럖컶죏캪%쫇뷏뫏쟩샭뗄ꎻ쇵죰ꆢ풬뢣뮪ꎨ2003ꎩ럖뇰틽죫GDP퓶뎤쟷쫆랽돌뫍닺돶ꆪꆰ뛌쿟늿쏅ꆱ솪쾵랽돌솽룶쒣탍닢쯣잱퓚닺돶벰웤쟷쫆ꎬ뗚튻훖랽램닢쯣뗃떽컒맺잱퓚뺭볃퓶뎤싊캪%ꎬ뗚뛾훖랽램쫇룹뻝뛌쿟욽뫢맛뗣ꎬ쪵볊ퟜ릩룸뫍잱퓚ퟜ릩룸튪쫜뛌쿟믲욿뺱늿쏅뗄훆풼ꎬ캪쇋쳥쿖헢훖뺭볃맜샭쮼쿫ꎬ릹퓬쇋닺돶폫뛌쿟늿쏅솪쾵랽돌ꎬ춨맽볆솿볬퇩뫍뚨탔럖컶뗃떽잱퓚닺돶뫍닺돶좱뿚ꎬ톡퓱뗄뛌쿟늿쏅폐솸쪳ꆢ쎺첿ꆢ쪯폍뫍뗧솦늿쏅ꎻ슽뻼ꆢ훓떤ꎨ2003ꎩ닉폃샠쯆OECD뗄짺닺몯쫽램맀쯣잱퓚닺돶ꎬ폃좫맺뗄만뚨닺뺻횵살쳦듺놾듦솿ꎬ틔ꆰ뺭볃믮뚯죋뿚ꆱퟷ캪돤럖뻍튵뗄샍뚯솿ꎬ폃솽뷗뛎맀볆램뒦샭벼쫵뷸늽틲쯘ꎬퟮ뫳ꎬ뗃떽잱퓚닺돶뫍쪵볊닺돶좱뿚ꎻ얣뷲듳톧뗄Scheibeꎨ2003ꎩ닉폃뚯첬뻹뫢탞헽쒣탍ꎨEqCMꎩ쮵쏷뗄짺닺몯쫽쳦듺뒫춳뗄뗀룱삭쮹짺닺몯쫽맀볆컒맺뗄잱퓚닺돶뫍닺돶좱뿚ꎬ럖컶죏캪EqCM짺닺몯쫽뗃떽뗄놾뫍샍뚯뗄뎤웚럝뛮뫍쪵볊룼튻훂ꎬ뗃떽뗄뷡싛쫇훐맺퓚2002쓪쒩뷸죫뺭볃룟헇쪱웚ꎬ떫쎻폐뎬맽1988쓪9퓂뫍1994쓪5퓂뗄솽룶룟럥ꆣ 5.ퟜ뷡 ꆶ쫀뷧뺭볃춳볆퇐뺿ꆷ2004쓪뗚1웚 뗚3튳
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