VOLUME I
Synthesis Report
Somalia Drought
Impact & Needs
Assessment
Cover: © UNDP Somalia
Inside Cover: © UNDP Somalia/Dreamcatcher
Table of Contents
Foreword 2
Acknowledgments 4
List of Figures 5
List of Tables 6
List of Boxes 7
List of Acronyms 8
Executive Summary 10
Introduction 10
Pre-Disaster Context 11
DINA Objectives, Approach and Scope 12
Methodology 15
2016-2017 Drought 18
Background on Droughts in Somalia 18
Overview of the Current Drought 19
Rainfall Analysis 20
Summary of Disaster Effects and Impacts: Damages, Losses and Needs 23
Overview of Pre-Drought Conditions, Drought Impact and Recovery Needs by Sector 28
Humanitarian Impact, Immediate Response, and Linkages to the Humanitarian Response Plan 36
The Human Impact 40
The Human Impact Framework 41
Deprivations in Living Conditions and Access to Basic Services 42
Livelihoods: Agriculture Losses, Unemployment and Loss of Income and Productive Resources 45
Food Security: Food Access and Malnutrition 47
Gender 47
Profile of Populations Affected, Vulnerable Groups and Social Protection 48
Poverty and Human Development 51
Final Observations 52
Macroeconomic Impact 54
Pre-drought Context and Baseline for the Sector 56
Drought Impact 59
Reforms Needed to Spur Growth 69
Cross-cutting Considerations 69
Recovery Needs and Strategy 70
Summary of Sector Assessments 74
Productive Sectors 74
Agriculture – Irrigation and Rain-fed Crop Production 74
Agriculture – Livestock 77
Agriculture – Fisheries 82
Physical Sectors 84
Water Supply and Sanitation 84
Transport 87
Environment, Clean Energy, and Natural Resource Management 89
Social Sectors 92
Health 92
Nutrition 96
Education 101
Cross-cutting Themes 105
Food Security 105
Livelihoods and Employment 108
Social Protection and Safety Nets 110
Gender 113
Urban Development and Municipal Services 116
Governance 119
Conflict 123
Displacement 125
Disaster Risk Reduction, Risk Financing and Drought Resilience 131
Drought Recovery Strategy 136
Underlying Conflict Drivers and Stressors for Drought 136
DINA: Rationale, Objectives and Guiding Principles 138
Key Recovery Interventions 141
Implementing the DINA 145
Annex 1: Drought Recovery Action Plan 146
Annex 2: Acknowledgments 154
2 | Somalia Drought Impact & Needs Assessment
Federal Government of Somalia
Somalia has made important progress in recent years with the establishment of permanent political institutions and
significant improvement in security, paving the way towards a future with greater peace. This is yet, however, to translate
into an improvement for the majority of Somali citizens’ food security and nutrition, access to safe water, sanitation,
health care and better protection. Following four consecutive poor rainy seasons in 2016 and 2017, the humanitarian
situation has deteriorated to a point where over half of the population is in need of assistance, jeopardizing critical
gains made in recent years.
In early 2017, the country was again faced with the risk of famine, only six years after a famine caused the deaths of
hundreds of thousands, provoked unspeakable human suffering and put the lives of millions more at risk. While the
famine was successfully averted in 2017 thanks to Somali leadership and extensive international support, the risk of
famine remains, and the cyclical droughts and increasingly erratic weather patterns continue to prevent achievement
of vital long-term development goals needed to lift Somalia out of poverty and insecurity.
Given the need for concerted action at this critical juncture, the Federal Government of Somalia sought the support of
the World Bank, the European Union, and the United Nations in conducting a comprehensive Drought Impact Needs
Assessment (DINA) and Recovery and Resilience Framework (RRF) to assess the impact of the ongoing drought on
lives, livelihoods and sectors of the economy, while identifying preventative and sustainable development solutions
to promote resilience to disaster risks and climate change trends and more effectively prevent the recurrence of
cyclical famine risk in Somalia. The report has benefitted throughout the process from the constructive and informative
engagement of the Federal Member States and the Benadir Regional Administration. Their input has been crucial,
given that much of the work of the subsequent resilient recovery program will be delivered by subnational authorities.
As the report will detail, the drought has caused damages and losses across a number of sectors totaling over USD
billion, requiring recovery interventions estimated at USD billion. Agriculture (irrigation and rain-fed crops)
and urban development and municipal services have been identified as the sectors with the highest recovery needs,
representing 28 percent and 17 percent of total needs, respectively.
The results of the DINA will feed into an RRF that will define a multi-sectoral approach to identifying key development
policies and investment priorities to prevent the recurrence of cyclical famine risk, tied to an associated financing
framework, situated within Somalia’s National Development Plan (NDP). The DINA is an important building block for
the future vision of Somalia. We appreciate the support of our partners in undertaking this exercise within a tight
timeframe, allowing for the timely initiation of much-needed recovery and resilience-building action, and we look
forward to working with them on this strategic initiative.
Gamal Mohamed Hassan
Minister of Planning, Investment and Economic Development
Federal Government of Somalia
Foreword
3
The European Union, the United Nations, and the World Bank
When alarms were raised of famine in early 2017, the collective response by national and international partners
demonstrated a clear commitment to never again let a famine unfold in Somalia. The massive scale-up of life-saving
assistance throughout the country by local communities, civil society, youth groups, diaspora, private sector, local
and national authorities and international partners reflects a level of solidarity and efficiency in the national and
international aid system which was not a given just a few years ago. Today, we know that collectively, we can prevent
famine in Somalia.
We also know that cyclical droughts in the Horn of Africa will continue to drive high levels of need in Somalia if urgent
investments are not made in strengthening resilience to future disasters and effectively preventing the risk of famine in
a sustainable manner. This has already been done in most other countries in the region and around the world, and we
know it is feasible in Somalia. The coming years present a critical window of opportunity to build on the achievements
and gains made nationally and internationally among development and humanitarian partners to effectively reduce risk
and vulnerability among those most in need in Somalia.
When the Federal Government of Somalia requested the European Union, the United Nations, and the
World Bank to support a comprehensive assessment of the drought, we immediately joined a team of over 80
Government staff from Federal and Member State levels who worked across 18 sectors on the Drought Impact and
Needs Assessment (DINA).
In fewer than seven weeks, the DINA team sifted through data, traveled to some of the most impacted areas, and
validated findings using innovative remote sensing technology. What emerges is a DINA that goes beyond determining
the damages, losses and resulting needs; it aims for a multi-sectoral, phased recovery strategy focused on strengthening
resilience to future disasters and effectively preventing the cyclical risk of famine.
It is our hope that the recommendations in this DINA can inform efforts by the Government of Somalia and its many
partners to enhance the collective understanding of the dynamics and drivers of recurrent climatic emergencies in the
country, while strengthening national capacity and the resilience of the Somali people to break the cycle of disasters
and the food insecurity that too often is the outcome.
Bella Bird
World Bank Country Director for Somalia, Tanzania, Burundi and Malawi
Peter de Clercq
Deputy Special Representative of the United Nations Secretary General to Somalia
Veronique Lorenzo
EU Ambassador to Somalia
4 | Somalia Drought Impact & Needs Assessment
The DINA was prepared under the overall leadership of the Ministry of Planning, Investment and Economic Development
in partnership with the Ministry of Humanitarian Affairs & Disaster Management of the Federal Government of Somalia
(FGS) and the Federal Member States and the Benadir Regional Administration. It was undertaken with strategic
support from the World Bank Group, the United Nations and the European Union, within the framework of the 2008
Joint EU-UN-WB Declaration on Post-Crisis Assessments and Recovery Planning. Financial support has been provided
by the European Union under the ACP-EU Natural Disaster Risk Reduction program implemented by the WB-led
Global Facility for Disaster Reduction and Recovery. Ipsos provided remote sensing and survey support, and Courage
Services, Inc. provided remote sensing services.
More than 180 national and international experts from the FGS, Federal Member States, the Benadir Regional
Administration, the World Bank Group, the United Nations and the European Union worked intensively across 18 sector/
cross-cutting groups to collect, validate and analyze data, conduct field visits to consult with sub-national authorities,
international and national non-governmental organizations and civil society stakeholders, to determine recovery needs
and identify interventions for medium-term recovery and long-term resilience.
A complete list of contributors to the DINA can be found in Annex 2.
Acknowledgments
5
List of Figures
Figure 1: Effective Planting Rains During Deyr and Gu 2009-2016 Seasons 21
Figure 2: Monthly Rainfall in Somalia in Comparison to the Long-Term Average, Sep. 2016 – June 2017 21
Figure 3a: Impact of the Drought (October 31, 2016 – June 30, 2017) 22
Figure 3b: Rain Effect April 2017– June 2017 22
Figure 4: Illustration of Typical Gu and Deyr Season 23
Figure 5: Distribution of Damages by Sector 24
Figure 6 Distribution of Losses by Sector 24
Figure 7: Distribution of Needs by Sector 25
Figure 8: Distribution of Needs by Federal Member State/Administrative Region 25
Figure 9: Response Plan Funding and Funding by Cluster 38
Figure 10: Deprivations and Multidimensional Poverty in Somalia 40
Figure 11: The Cascading Human Impact of Disasters 42
Figure 12: Water and Sanitation: Typology of the Cascading Effects and Human Impact of Drought 43
Figure 13: Health: Typology of the Cascading Effects and Human Impact of Drought 43
Figure 14: Deprivations: Living Conditions and Access to Basic Services 44
Figure 15: Adoption of Coping Strategies by Percentage 46
Figure 16: Livelihoods: Typology of the Cascading Effects and Human Impact of Drought 46
Figure 17: Profile of Populations Affected 48
Figure 18: Food Insecurity by IPC Phase (August to December 2017), Poverty and
Human Development in Somalia 51
Figure 19: Somalia’s Economic Growth Before the Drought 54
Figure 20: Fragile State Indicators for Somalia 58
Figure 21: Price of Camel Local Quality (Somali and Somaliland Shillings) 60
Figure 22: Price of Cattle of Export and Local Quality (Somali and Somaliland Shilling) 61
Figure 23: Price of Sheep of Export Quality (Somali and Somaliland Shillings) 62
Figure 24: Price of Goat of Export and Local Quality (Somali and Somalia Shillings) 63
Figure 25: Price of Crops Increased Significantly in all Regions 64
Figure 26: Average Daily Labor Rate (USD) 65
Figure 27a: Somalia’s Exports (2013-2017) 66
Figure 27b: Somalia’s Imports (2013-2017) 67
Figure 28: Somalia Livelihood Profile 77
Figure 29: Estimated Livestock Losses 78
Figure 30: Mortality Rate by Type of Livestock 79
Figure 31: Percentage of Grazing Land Degraded by Drought 80
Figure 32: Boreholes and Drought Edges 85
Figure 33: Provisional Road Condition 87
Figure 34: IDP Settlements and Roads in Kismayo 88
Figure 35: GAM and SAM Trends in Somalia 96
Figure 36: Critical Issues with Food Access 98
Figure 37: Displacement Statistics 102
Figure 38: Children Enrolled vs Forced Out of School 103
Figure 39: Projected Food Security Outcomes, Nov. 2017-Jan. 2018 and Feb.-May 2018 107
Figure 40: Area Occupied by IDP Settlements in Baidoa, Kismayo and Mogadishu 116
Figure 41: IDP Settlements in Mogadishu 117
Figure 42a: IDP Settlements in Biadoa 117
Figure 42b: IDP Settlements in Kismayo 117
Figure 43: Somalia Fatalities by District (In Grey) and Drought Intensity (In Red) 124
6 | Somalia Drought Impact & Needs Assessment
List of Tables
Table 1: Summary of Damages, Losses, and Needs Across All Sectors 26
Table 2: Areas of Concern Through January 2018 by Food Security Plans 49
Table 3: Vulnerable Population Groups 50
Table 4: Key Baseline Macroeconomic Data 59
Table 5: Balance of Payment, 2013-19 (USD millions) 67
Table 6: Summary of Drought Recovery Needs 73
Table 7: Agriculture – Irrigation and Red-Red Crop Recovery Needs 76
Table 8: Agriculture – Livestock Recovery Needs 81
Table 9: Agriculture – Fisheries Recovery Needs 83
Table 10: Water Supply and Sanitation Recovery Needs 86
Table 11: Transport Recovery Needs 88
Table 12: Damages and Losses in the ENR sector in Somalia, 2017 89
Table 13: Environment, Clean Energy and Natural Resources Management Recovery Needs 91
Table 14: Key Baseline Data for the Health Sector 92
Table 15: Health Sector Loss 93
Table 16: Summary Needs for Health 95
Table 17: Nutrition Sector Losses 97
Table 18: Nutrition Recovery Needs 100
Table 19: Education Recovery Needs 104
Table 20: Impact of Drought on Number of People Requiring Urgent Food Security Assistance 105
Table 21: Food Security Recovery Needs 107
Table 22: Estimated Direct Losses in the Livestock Sector 108
Table 23: Livelihoods and Employment Recovery Needs 110
Table 24: Social Protection and Safety Nets Recovery Needs 112
Table 25: Gender Recovery Needs 115
Table 26: Urban Development and Municipal Services Recovery Needs 119
Table 27: Governance Recovery Needs 121
Table 28: Displacement Recovery Needs 130
Table 29: Summary Needs for Disaster Risk Reduction and Drought Resilience 134
7
List of Boxes
Box 1: Centrality of Protection 13
Box 2: Remote Sensing and Field Surveys in Support of the Somalia DINA 16
Box 3: Water Harvesting Changes Lives 20
Box 4: Water, Food and Security for Displaced Communities 45
Box 5: Training Women Strengthen Fishing Communities 83
Box 6: Safe Drinking Water Promises Health Benefits 85
Box 7: Nutrition Center Saves Lives of Drought-affected Children 99
Box 8: Displaced Children Get a Chance at Education 104
Box 9: Homeless and Hungry: The Journey Continues 126
Box 10: Exclusion in Somalia 128
8 | Somalia Drought Impact & Needs Assessment
ACLED Armed Conflict Location & Event Data Project
AfDB African Development Bank
ARC African Risk Capacity
AWD Acute Watery Diarrhea
CAS Comprehensive Approach to Security
CBS Central Bank of Somalia
CIA Central Intelligence Agency, United States of America
CPI Consumer Price Index
CSA Climate Smart Agriculture
CSO Civil Society Organization
DINA Drought Impact and Needs Assessment
DOCC Drought Operations Coordination Centers
DRR Disaster Risk Reduction
DSI Durable Solutions Initiative
EGA Evergreen Agriculture
ELD Economics on Land Degradation Initiative
EU European Union
FAO Food and Agriculture Organization
FEWSNET Famine Early Warning Systems Network
FGM Female Genital Mutilation
FGS Federal Government of Somalia
FISHSTAT Fisheries and Aquaculture Department Stats, FAO
FMS Federal Member States
FMNR Farmer-managed Natural Regeneration
FSNAU Food Security and Nutrition Analysis Unit
FTS Financial Tracking Service, UNOCHA
GAM Global Acute Malnutrition
GBV Gender Based Violence
GDP Gross Domestic Product
GII Gender Inequality Index
HCF Health Care Facility
HCT Humanitarian Country Team
HH Household
HRP Humanitarian Response Plan
ICCG Inter-Cluster Coordination Group
IFI International Financing Institutions
ICT Information and Communication Technology
ICU Islamic Courts Union
IDP Internally Displaced Persons
IOM International Organization for Migration
IPC Integrated Food Security Phase Classification
IRC International Rescue Committee
ISFM Integrated soil fertility management systems
List of Acronyms
9
LMIS Labor Market Information Services
MDGs Millennium Development Goals
MMR Maternal Mortality Ratio
MoHADM Ministry of Humanitarian Affairs and Disaster Management
MoPIED Ministry of Planning, Investment and Economic Development
MoWHRD Ministry of Women and Human Rights Development
MPF Multi Partner Fund, World Bank
NDP National Development Plan
NDVI Normalized Difference Vegetation Index
NGO Non-governmental Organization
NWoW New Way of Working
ODA Official Development Assistance
OIC Organization of Islamic Cooperation
PESS Population Estimations Survey for Somalia
PLW Pregnant and Lactating Women
PIMS Public Investment Management and Governance Support Project, World Bank
PPP Public Private Partnership Framework
PRMN Protection & Return Monitoring Network, UNHCR
RRF Recovery and Resilience Framework
SAM Severe Acute Malnutrition
SDGs Sustainable Development Goals
SIDF Somalia Infrastructure Development Fund
SITF Somalia Infrastructure Trust Fund
SWALIM Somalia Water and Land Information Management
SDRF Somalia Development and Reconstruction Facility
TLS Temporary Learning Structures
U5MR Under-five Mortality Rate
UN United Nations
UNHCR Office of the United Nations High Commissioner for Refugees
UNICEF United Nations Children’s Fund
UNMPTF UN Multi Partner Trust Fund for Somalia
UNOCHA United Nations Office for the Coordination of Humanitarian Affairs
UN Women United Nations Entity for Gender Equality and the Empowerment of Women
WFP World Food Program
WHO World Health Organization
WIDEs Widely Diversified Enterprises
WB World Bank
10 | Somalia Drought Impact & Needs Assessment
Introduction
Although famine was averted in 2017, thanks in part
to a massive scale-up in humanitarian assistance,
famine remains a looming risk in the coming months
and years. Decades of insecurity, political instability,
drought and food insecurity have disrupted desperately
needed services, devastated human capital and
physical infrastructure, and contributed to systematic
impoverishment and displacement of the population.
The 2018 Humanitarian Response Plan (HRP) highlights
the need to sustain humanitarian lifesaving efforts at
levels similar to 2017 due to predictions of a fourth
consecutive season of failed rains from Oct-Dec 2017.
The Federal Government of Somalia (FGS) and its local
and international partners will need to provide lifesaving
services to approximately million people in 2018 to
limit the effects of diseases and continue to prevent
This continuing drought crisis further underlines
the need to seek ways to make structural changes that
will reduce the impacts of future drought cycles.
The impact of drought on the Somali people is
compounded by an interrelated set of factors that
include the environment, governance, conflict,
displacement and poverty. This confluence of factors
has created an exceedingly complex crisis in the Horn
of Africa, and it demands an equally complex analysis
of the underlying drivers of drought, their impact on
the Somali people and the strategies that can pave the
way toward recovery and resilience. While the Somali
authorities prioritize meeting the urgent humanitarian
needs of its citizens, they also see the need to focus on
medium- and long-term development objectives. The
Somalia Drought Impact and Needs Assessment (DINA),
together with the Recovery and Resilience Framework
(RRF), is a process led by the FGS in partnership with
the Federal Member States (FMS) and supported by
the World Bank, the United Nations and the European
Union, which aims to reduce the country’s vulnerability
to climate shocks, strengthen resilience and significantly
reduce the future risk of famine.
Medium - to long-term investments in reducing vulner-
ability and risk are urgently required to prevent the re-
currence of cyclical famine risk in Somalia. The progress
in state-building and peace-building in Somalia since
2012 has now created conditions in which targeted ef-
forts can be made to define and implement solutions so
that Somalis will never again face the risk of famine. The
FGS has already prioritized a focus on resilience within
its National Development Plan (NDP), which serves as
the overarching framework for development priorities
in Somalia. There are now opportunities for better in-
vestment in Government-led policies and medium- to
long-term programs that can more sustainably reduce
risk and vulnerability for the million people who are
most vulnerable and in need of humanitarian assistance.
Recurrent drought and subsequent famine risk have
become a devastating and increasingly unsustainable
cycle in Somalia in recent decades. Since the end of
the previous drought in 2011, approximately USD
billion has been spent on emergency responses to
save lives. While these efforts have averted famine to
date, the continuous need for humanitarian response is
preventing Somalis from achieving the vital long-term
development gains needed to lift the country out of
poverty and insecurity.
The inauguration of a new President and Parliament
through a historic electoral process, progress in building
economic, security, justice and governance institutions,
and the launch of the NDP present an unprecedented
opportunity to break the cycle of recurrent disasters
and move towards medium-term recovery and long-
term resilience.
Towards this end, the DINA and the RRF seek to build on
the essential, life-saving humanitarian interventions that
have to date succeeded in preventing famine.
Executive Summary
1 UNOCHA and HCT. 2017. Somalia Humanitarian Response Plan: January – December 2018
11
Pre-Disaster Context
Somalia is emerging from a decades-long civil war that
has ravaged the country since 1991. Cycles of conflict
have resulted in a rapid deterioration of the country’s
infrastructure and institutions, and the emergence of
different political entities, all faced by varying levels of
conflict and fragility. Decades of conflict have also led
to large-scale protracted displacement with substantive
progress to durable solutions remaining elusive. The
ongoing conflict has multiple layers, including continued
competition for resources between communities,
resulting in a need for local reconciliation. Insecurity
continues to pose big challenges to Somalia's short-
term stability and long-term development.
In an attempt to re-establish state authority, the FGS
was established in 2012, built through national dialogue
and consensus and based on a federal system of
Member States. Through an inclusive and participatory
process, the Somali Compact was drafted for the period
2014-16, reflecting the ongoing process of transition
and defining priority interventions to ensure the country
stays on the path to long-term peace and state-building
with the ultimate objective of a new Constitution. The
FGS and the FMS have also developed an NDP (2017-
19), the first in 30 years.
Substantial progress has been achieved in the creation
of the federal institutional structure. However, critical
parameters of Somalia as a Federal State, including
© UNDP Somalia
Executive Summary |
12 | Somalia Drought Impact & Needs Assessment
the formula for resource sharing and the articulation of
competencies between the respective entities, are still
to be defined and enshrined in the Constitution, and
progress is highly dependent on the establishment of
relations of trust between the center and the periphery.
Despite progress in the state-building and peace-
building agenda, the socio-economic situation of the
country remains challenging. Somalia’s Gross Domestic
Product (GDP) was estimated to be USD billion for
2016, with nominal growth of a Its GDP
per capita was equally low, at USD Somalia has
a population of million, with approximately 60
percent living in rural Only 54 percent of the
population participates in Somalia’s labor force,5 with 33
percent female Some 51 percent of the
population still lives below the USD per day poverty
line, with the highest incidence of poverty found among
households located in IDP settlements (71 percent).7
Approximately two-thirds of youth are underemployed
or unemployed. Due to the decades-long conflict,
recent and comprehensive human development data for
the country remains elusive.
Somalia is a largely pastoral and agro-pastoral
economy, strategically located in the Horn of Africa and
bordered by Ethiopia, Djibouti and Kenya. Its surface
area is approximately 637,657 square kilometers, with
a coastline extending 3,025 kilometers along the Gulf
Aden to the north and the Indian Ocean to the east.
Agricultural land comprises 70 percent of the country, of
which close to 2 percent is arable land, while 68 percent
is permanent The main agricultural production
areas are situated in southern Somalia and parts of the
northwest, with main food crops being maize, sorghum,
sesame and cowpeas.
The country is at high risk of natural hazards, notably
drought, desertification and floods. Somalia features
a highly-varied topography and a desert climate.
Northern sections of the country are mountainous,
with the land rising between 900m to 2,100m above
sea level, and flatten off in the central and southern
regions. The climate is arid or semi-arid, with rainfall
patterns of two rainy and two dry seasons. The main
rivers running through the country are the Shebelle and
Juba rivers, shared with Ethiopia and exposing central
and southern Somalia to flooding when heavy rains
occur in the Ethiopian highlands. Land degradation is a
prominent environmental issue in the country, driven by
drought, desertification and poor agricultural and
pastoral
DINA Objectives, Approach and Scope
To improve understanding of the dynamics and drivers
of recurrent emergencies and to reinforce efforts to
develop long-term durable solutions aimed at building
broad-based resilience and mitigation to disaster risks
as well as longer term climate change trends, the FGS
submitted a formal request in August 2017 for WB, UN
and EU assistance to conduct a comprehensive Drought
Impact Needs Assessment (DINA) and Recovery and
Resilience Framework (RRF).
Objectives of the DINA
The DINA aims to provide an assessment of drought
damage and loss impacts so that current and future
drought impacts can be quantified and an estimation of
recovery and resilience needs developed. The findings
are essential for any Government to fulfill its role
leading drought recovery efforts. They can also guide
the FGS, the FMS and partners to continue to prevent
famine and implement structural interventions that can
lead to a way out of the repeated cycles of drought.
The DINA needs figures are essential because they
represent the first and only estimation the Government
and its partners have of what will be required to move
Somalia beyond perpetual emergency response into
recovery and, eventually, resilient development. The
DINA is important for recovery planning in any crisis
situation but particularly relevant for the Government
and its partners in Somalia, where there is a pattern of
recurrent drought.
The objectives of the DINA include estimating the
physical, economic and human impacts of the 2016-
17 drought on the socio-economic development of
2 World Bank. 2017. Somalia Economic Update.
3 Based on World Bank data 2016.
4 Federal Government of Somalia. 2016. Somalia National Development Plan (2017-2019)
5 Based on ILO estimates 2015.
6 Ibid.
7 World Bank. 2017. Somali Poverty Profile 2016: Findings from Wave 1 of the Somali High Frequency Survey.
8 Central Intelligence Agency (CIA). 2017. The World Fact Book.
9 UNDP. 2017. Climate Change Adaptation website, citing UNEP 2011.
13
the country at national, state and regional levels and
assessing and quantifying sector drought recovery needs
as well as the associated overall resilience building
needs of the country. These processes aim to integrate
concepts of disaster risk reduction, durable solutions for
displacement, resilience and “building back better” into
recovery planning and implementation, with appropriate
gender and environmental considerations.
The DINA comprises three volumes:
• Volume I: Synthesis report
• Volume II: Sector assessment annex
• Volume III: FMS-level annex
Objectives of the RRF
DINA findings and recommendations will inform the
development of a Recovery and Resilience Framework
(RRF), which will provide the policy, institutional, and
financial basis to guide the transition from humanitarian
relief to recovery and long-term development. The
framework defines a multi-sectoral approach to
prioritizing key development and investment priorities,
allowing Government authorities to build on existing
efforts to strengthen resilience to recurrent disasters,
increase disaster management and crisis response
capacity, and enhance Somalia’s ability to respond
to climate change. The RRF serves two distinct and
simultaneous functions: an operational and investment
framework that will prioritize and finance recovery
interventions while developing government capacity for
managing a recovery program, and an implementation
platform for the DINA.
DINA in the context of the ongoing
humanitarian crisis
The DINA aligns with the 2018 HRP for Somalia, part
of the three-year Humanitarian Strategy (2016-18).
The DINA complements the HRP by focusing on
medium- to long-term recovery and ensuring strategic
alignment between Somalia’s humanitarian, recovery,
and development agendas. Toward this end, short-term
humanitarian interventions are left to the HRP while
the DINA focuses more on interventions that support
recovery and resilience building measures.
In the context of Somalia, in which a situation of
protracted humanitarian crisis prevails, it is imperative
that the RRF bring together all stakeholders to consider
the recovery strategy. Furthermore, recent and ongoing
humanitarian responses continue to provide multiple
lessons for increasing efficiency that will inform the
recovery and resilience strategy. The RRF allows these
lessons to be captured and shared across the spectrum
of stakeholders.
The DINA and the resulting recommended interventions
are intended to move beyond the traditional and
artificial distinction between humanitarian and recovery
interventions. International best practice has shown that
the most effective recovery strategies work across the
humanitarian-recovery-development nexus and take
a multi-partner, multi-sectoral, integrated approach
that combines both humanitarian, recovery and
resilience building interventions to meet immediate
humanitarian needs, strengthen livelihoods and build
resilience to future disasters. The DINA and RRF benefit
from this nexus while also leveraging it for sustainable
drought recovery.
The centrality of protection of critical rights in the HRP, DINA and RRF requires a system-wide response. The
HRP, DINA and RRF have prioritized addressing, in the short-term and early recovery periods, protection of
key rights related to:
• Preventing exclusion, including exclusion based on societal discrimination, power structures,
vulnerability, age and gender.
• Addressing the rights abuses and social pressure that increasing displacement has placed especially
on urban areas and the challenges in achieving durable solutions.
• The erosion of resilience and self-protection of communities due to drought and multi-layered
conflict, compounded by limited delivery of services in hard-to-reach areas.
Box 1: Centrality of Protection
Executive Summary |
14 | Somalia Drought Impact & Needs Assessment
Approach and Timeline: The DINA is a FGS-led
initiative with important engagement and input from
the FMS and the Benadir Regional Administration. To
achieve delivery by the timeline requested by FGS, a
multi-partner management structure was established,
ensuring effective coordination and cooperation. The
assessment process commenced in late August 2017
upon the request of the FGS for support to conduct the
DINA and RRF. Mobilization of experts, both national
and international, took place in September, and the
DINA and RRF kicked off in early October with an
induction training for over 150 sector experts from the
Government, World Bank, UN and the EU in Mogadishu,
geared towards understanding the joint WB-UN-EU
DINA methodology.
Following the workshop, more than 180 experts working
across 18 sector teams embarked on a process of data
collection, analysis and validation to establish a pre-
drought baseline, determine the damages and losses
inflicted by the disaster and calculate the resulting
needs for sustainable recovery and long-term drought
resilience. With time of the essence due to the severity
of the drought, the DINA team engaged the services of
Ipsos, a global data and advisory services company, to
fill data gaps with on-the-ground support from its field
teams in Somalia and to support data collection and
validation in inaccessible areas of the country through
remote sensing.
Sectoral Scope: The scope of the assessment covered
the following sectors:
• Productive sectors: Agriculture – Irrigation and
Rain-fed Crops; Livestock; Fisheries. This represents
the sectors of the economy on which the livelihoods
of the people generally depend.
• Physical sectors: Water Supply and Sanitation;
Transport; and Environment, Clean Energy and
Natural Resource Management. These sectors
represent assets that are essential for the
functioning of a society and economy, . the
infrastructure.
• Social sector: Health; Nutrition; and
Education. This includes sectors related
to social aspects of society.
• Cross-cutting themes: Urban Development and
Municipal Services; Social Protection and Safety
Nets; Food Security; Livelihoods and Employment;
Gender; Governance; Conflict; Displacement and
Migration; and Disaster Risk Reduction, Disaster
Risk Financing and Drought Resilience. This
includes themes which impact other sectors.
• Analyses of the overall macroeconomic, human and
social impact of the drought were also undertaken.
Geographical and Temporal Scope: All 18 administrative
regions of the Somali peninsula have been affected by
the drought and were therefore part of the assessment:
• Central: Benadir, Galguduud, Hiran, Middle
Shebelle and Lower Shebelle.
• Northeastern: Bari, Mudug and Nugal.
• Northwestern: Awdal, Sanaag, Sool, Togdheer
and Woqooyi
• Southern: Bakool, Bay, Gedo, Middle Juba
and Lower Juba.
Given the impact of the drought preceding, and
following, the disaster declaration in February 2017 and
estimates that drought conditions will continue well
into 2018, given the forecast of below-average rains
for a fourth consecutive season, the temporal scope to
assess damages and losses from the drought covers the
time period from the 2016 Deyr rainy season (October
to December 2016) to the end of the 2017 Deyr rains
(October to December 2017).
Methodology
The DINA follows the standard PDNA methodology
developed by the UN System, World Bank and the
European Union that incorporates a collection of
analytical methods, tools and techniques developed
for post-disaster assessments and recovery planning,
ensuring sector to sector comparability and homogeneity
in the definition of basic concepts of damages, losses
and post-disaster recovery needs. The assessment builds
on primary and secondary data related to damage and
loss in the identified sectors, which are provided by FGS,
FMS and development partners supporting the DINA.
Damage and Loss Quantification: The effects of the
drought on each sector have been assessed in terms of
damages and losses.
• Damage is defined as total or partial destruction
of physical assets existing in the affected area.
Damages occur during and immediately after the
disaster and are measured in physical units (.,
number of damaged boreholes, head of livestock,
hectares of land, etc.). Their monetary values are
expressed as the replacement costs according to
prices prevailing just before the event.
• Losses are defined as changes in economic flows
arising from the disaster. They occur until full
economic recovery and reconstruction is achieved,
in some cases lasting for several years, but for the
purposes of this assessment, losses have been
projected up through December 2017. Typical
losses include the decline in output in productive
sectors (agriculture, livestock, and fisheries).
15
Classification and Quantification of Recovery Needs:
Recovery needs are the costs of recommended
interventions and resources that include: the
reconstruction needs estimated as the requirements
for financing reconstruction, replacement or repair of
the physical assets that were damaged or destroyed by
the disaster; and recovery needs estimated on the basis
of the financial resources required for the rehabilitation
of basic services, reactivation of productive activities,
or immediate reactivation of personal or household
income. Recovery needs also include capacity building
and operational costs for service delivery that are
necessary for the implementation of interventions.
Costing for recovery needs include differentials for
building back better to consider quality improvements
and DRR measures to be implemented to increase
resilience against future disasters. For the purpose
of this assessment, recovery needs are classified as
short-term (Year 1); medium-term (Years 2-3); and
long-term (Years 4+). Short-term recovery needs are
distinct from emergency humanitarian needs. Rather
than representing emergency lifesaving interventions,
short-term recovery needs represent interventions of
a developmental nature that need to be implemented
in the short-term to have quicker results and impact on
the overall recovery program. An example would be the
immediate injection of capacity within the Government
to lead and coordinate the recovery efforts.
Recovery needs, especially in the case of a slow-
onset disaster, are typically and logically valued less
than damages and losses, as the largest needs are
represented in the humanitarian phase that can continue
for an extended period of time. In addition, the cost of
inputs required for recovery (such as livestock treatment
or seeds) are typically less than the value of outputs
lost due to drought (such as cattle mortality decreasing
income from export, or crop failure decreasing the
volume available for sale).
Data Collection and Validation: The key source of
information for the estimation of damages and needs
was primary data from the FGS and FMS, and secondary
data available from existing or on-going humanitarian/
sectoral assessments. In addition, primary data and
qualitative data were provided by Ipsos through remote
sensing techniques using satellite imagery and from
on-the-ground field surveys conducted by the Ipsos
Somalia team. Data validation techniques included
the use of remote sensing techniques to validate key
impact data for crops, livestock and water resources.
Further validation of data was performed using process
verification techniques and empirical plausibility checks.
The assessment included the collection of pre-drought
baseline data to evaluate the drought impact and to
determine the overall recovery strategy.
The Ministry of Planning, Investment and Economic
Development (MoPIED) and UN colleagues coordinated
field visits to five Federal Member States (FMS):
Galmudug, Hirshabelle, Jubaland, Puntland and
South West, and consultation with Benadir Regional
Administration authorities. The visits comprised
consultations with state-level line ministries, UN agencies
operational in the states, and representatives of civil
society regarding data collection, needs assessment and
recovery strategies.
Understanding the drivers and root causes of drought-
related humanitarian needs: The DINA builds on the
Somalia Humanitarian Needs Overview (HNO) for 2018 by
seeking to better understand the root causes and drivers
of drought-related humanitarian needs and famine risk.
International best practice has shown that the most
effective way to reduce needs, risks and vulnerabilities
and build resilience is to work more coherently across the
humanitarian-recovery-development nexus by ensuring
short-, medium- and long-term programs target the
most vulnerable people concurrently wherever possible.
© UNDP Somalia
Executive Summary |
16 | Somalia Drought Impact & Needs Assessment
Remote sensing applications were used to delineate the spatial and temporal extent of the drought to
provide an objective tool to quantify the impacts in key sectors. With the assistance of Ipsos Inc., one of
the world’s largest data services firms, and Courage Services Inc., high-resolution satellite imagery such
as Landsat (the longest-running enterprise for the acquisition of satellite imagery of Earth) and indicators
such as the Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI) (showing the state and health of vegetation)
were analyzed to provide vital data on affected populations, drought-stressed areas and sector-specific
impact information.
In addition, a survey was conducted of over 1,000
households in 13 districts in conjunction with a
survey of Somali healthcare facilities (HCFs) to
understand the impact of the drought on nutrition,
health and livelihoods, particularly among internally
displaced persons (IDPs).
Agriculture
Remote sensing was utilized to gauge total
estimated area of production and total area loss
within six major areas of Somalia, including Bay,
Galguduud, Lower Juba, Lower Shabelle, Middle
Shabelle and Middle Juba. MODIS NDVI 250M was
utilized to determine baseline NDVI calculation,
and imagery from 2016-2017 was first utilized for
drought level NDVI calculation. Raster images were
compared to estimate average NDVI loss.
Areas with above-average NDVI loss were targeted
for identification and/or verification of activity at
previously known or classifier-identified medium/
large-scale bananas, papayas, tomatoes and lemon
large cultivation areas either through targeted
review of -3M resolution Planet Labs imagery (for medium/large scale lemon tree/bananas holdings), WV3/4
30cm imagery for sampled confirmation of smaller crops (where available) and/or by cross-checking imagery
results against previous ground-based agricultural baseline crop cultivation estimation studies in these areas.
Limitations of this methodology include areas with relative cloud cover in either baseline/drought imagery,
as well as potential joint planting of crops within reviewed areas, areas of small-scale farming and/or lack
of pre-existing ground sampling in examined areas. Information was cross-compared with FAO-estimated
crop areas, as well as with expert-provided cultivation and loss estimates within designated regions. A major
market and farm-based survey was conducted to identify farmgate (volume) and market prices for 14 major
commodities. Data was used to assist sector specialists with damage and loss estimates.
Fisheries
Whereas the use of such techniques was discussed with IPSOS and thought to be useful in future for boat
counts in marine fisheries (provided that we use very high resolutions satellite imagery), the use of boats
as an estimate of fishing activity in the inland fisheries was not factored into the analysis done by the
Fishery Sector Team.
Box 2: Remote Sensing and Field Surveys in Support of the Somalia DINA
17
Displacement
(i) Very High-resolution satellite imagery from 2014 and 2015, as well as from August 2017 was used to identify
IDP settlements and estimate IDP populations prior to the drought and during the drought periods for
Kismayo. IDP structures were determined based on existing imagery signatures, including roofing structure,
irregularly-shaped constructions, and tent structures; (ii) Multiple NGO publications and local surveys,
including IOM, Norwegian Refugee Services, UNICEF, among others, were examined to further refine
areas for imagery analysis and examine IDP settlement patterns. Each IDP structure was counted, its area
size accounted for, and roofing type determined. Calculations were cross-examined with UN procurement
documents in the areas in which imagery analysis identified organized tent settlements. Data was used to
determine average and absolute capacity for population incidence and density within Kismayo. Pre-drought
and post-drought settlement maps and IDP estimates for the city were produced as a result.
WASH/Health Access
Remote sensing and NGO data were used to estimate IDP access to WASH/health facilities within three
major urban areas, including Mogadishu, Baidoa and Kismayo: (i) Satellite imagery was used to estimate
IDP populations and settlement patterns within these cities; (ii) UNICEF data for WASH/Health facilities was
utilized to understand baseline distribution and functionality of facilities; (iii) Open street map (OSM) road data
(September 2017) and high resolution imagery (August 2017) were utilized to identify which road networks,
including primary, secondary and tertiary roads, connected WASH and health facilities to IDP settlements; (iv)
IRC, IOM, World Bank High Frequency and Ipsos household surveys were used to understand primary and
secondary sources of water and health provisions.
Conflict
(i) ACLED conflict incidence data for Somalia from pre-drought (2014-2016) and drought periods (2016-
2017) was used to identify percentage change in conflict incidence at district/region levels for multiple
types of conflict (battle-no change of territory, violence against civilians, remote violence, riots/protests);
(ii) Conflict percentage change activity was layed over drought impact areas to identify any potential cross-
correlation between drought and conflict; (iii) In urban areas with high influx of IDPs, pre-drought vs. drought
IDP settlement patterns were reviewed to understand whether increase in IDPs was an additional vector
potentially responsible for increase in violence.
Environment
(i) Remote sensing was used to estimate NDVI change (2014-2017) to estimate drought conditions in Somalia;
(ii) FAO Landsat-derived land cover/land use areas were reviewed to identify grazing areas; (iii) Pixel-level
overlap was identified between grazing areas and most affected/moderately affected by drought areas
to estimate percentage of grazing areas likely decimated by drought. Information was further mapped at
district level.
Executive Summary |
18 | Somalia Drought Impact & Needs Assessment
2016-2017 Drought
Background on Droughts in Somalia
Somalia is heavily reliant on its natural resource base
and the provision of eco-system services. The country’s
vulnerability to climate change is projected to increase
due to its dependency on its natural resource base. This,
coupled with the man-made degradation of natural
resources due to charcoal production and overgrazing,
has increased Somalia’s vulnerability to drought
and desertification, leading to a marked reduction in
food security.
Natural hazards and disasters are endemic in Somalia.
The increasing spatial and temporal variability of the rainy
and dry seasons as well as floods and droughts result in
serious natural disasters, while El Niño-induced changes
in weather patterns continue to impact the region.
Historical trends show droughts occurring regularly at
intervals of 2-3 years in the Deyr (October- December)
season and 8-10 years in consecutive Deyr and Gu (April-
June) seasons, extending seasonal Records
indicate that ten significant droughts occurred between
1918 and 1975, while droughts also occurred in 1979-80,
1983-86 and
In the last quarter century, Somalia has undergone
three periods of protracted drought and two periods
of famine. A famine in 1992 killed nearly 300,000 people
and displaced 1 out of 5 By early 1992, it was
estimated that between one-quarter and one-third
of all children had During the 2011 East Africa
Drought, more than a quarter of a million-people died
in Somalia, half of them children under the age of
The drought resulted in 955,000 Somali refugees
in neighboring countries15 and devastating economic
losses to agriculture and livestock. It also brought famine
to the south of the country. Somalia is now experiencing
the third drought of this period.
© UNDP Somalia
10 Federal Government of Somalia. 2016.. Somalia National Development Plan (2017-2019).
11 Africa Watch and Physicians for Human Rights (1992). “No Mercy in Mogadishu: The Human Cost of the Conflict & the Struggle for Relief.”
12 The UN definition of a famine is when at least 20 percent of households in an area face extreme food shortages with a limited ability to cope;
acute malnutrition rates exceed 30 percent; and the death rate exceeds two persons per day per 10,000 persons.
13 Clark, . “Famine in Somalia and the International Response: Collective Failure”, US Committee for Refugees Issue Paper,
November 1992.
14 FSNAU. 2013. Mortality Among Populations of Southern and Central Somalia affected by severe food insecurity and famine during 2010-2012
15 UNICEF. 2011. Horn of Africa Crisis: Regional Overview: December 2011.
19
Overview of the Current Drought
In February 2017, the President of the Federal
Government of Somalia declared a severe nationwide
drought and state of national disaster resulting from
consecutive seasons of poor rains. For the third season
in a row since the beginning of 2016, the rains performed
poorly in Somalia, with the 2017 Deyr (October-
December) season rainfall also projected to be below
average. This would imply a fourth consecutive season
of poor rainfall (Gu 2016, Deyr 2016, Gu 2017 and 2017
Deyr) in the The below average rainfall has
resulted in a significant depletion of water resources
for agricultural consumption, particularly for livestock
sustenance, which forms the backbone of the mainly rural
economy, accounting for about 65 percent of the Gross
Domestic Product (GDP). Livestock body conditions
have deteriorated substantially, and atypical livestock
deaths have been Low rainfall also resulted
in a dramatic drop in cereal production in the South, with
production in 2016 being the lowest on record since the
beginning of the Somali conflict in 1988,18 and 49 percent
below the long-term average (1995-2015).19
The ongoing drought has plunged the majority of
the population into food insecurity. An estimated
million people–more than half of the population–are
food insecure (IPC Phases 2, 3 and 4)20 and in need of
humanitarian assistance, mostly in remote rural
Of this number, an estimated million people are still
in Phases 3 and 422 due to acute food insecurity and
thus in need of continued emergency humanitarian
16 FSNAU and FEWS NET. Food Security Outlook: October 2017 – May 2018.
17 Livestock-related losses of between USD billion and USD billion have been reported for the period of the drought –
Somalia Economic Update 2017.
18 UNOCHA. 2017. Horn of Africa: Humanitarian Inputs of Drought – Issue 1.
19 Ibid.
20 The Integrated Food Security Phase Classification (IPC), consisting of five phases, is a means of classify varying phases of
current food security situations based on outcomes on human lives and livelihoods. The phases are: (1) Minimal; (2) Stressed;
(3) Crisis; (4) Emergency, and; (5) Famine.
21 UNOCHA. 2017. Somalia Humanitarian Dashboard: June 2017.
22 FEWSNET and FSNAU. 2017. Somalia Food Security Outlook – October 2017 to May 2018: “A fifth consecutive below-average season likely;
Famine (IPC Phase 5) risk continues”
23 Ibid.
24 Ibid.
25 UNICEF. 2017. Somalia Situation Report (Sitrep #15): October 2017.
26 Ibid.
27 WHO. 2017. Outbreak Update: Cholera in Somalia: October 2017.
28 UNHCR. 2017. Displacements Dashboard, Protection & Return Monitoring Network (PRMN), Internal Displacements During September 2017.
assistance in 2018. With a third consecutive poor rainfall
performance from April-June adversely impacting the
July harvest, food insecurity levels were predicted to
continue largely unchanged through the beginning
of 2018 and could in fact worsen through May 2018
due to predictions of a fourth straight below-average
rainy season from October to Significant
areas of Somalia were expected to continue to
experience Phase 4 conditions through early 2018, with
famine possible in the worst-case scenario in which
current food assistance is The resulting
lifesaving humanitarian needs are presented in the
2018 HRP.
Food insecurity and scarcity of drinking water, coupled
with displacement, have contributed to a stark rise
in malnutrition and water-borne disease. Some
million children in Somalia are projected to be acutely
malnourished in 2018—an increase of 50 percent over
the previous The country is also facing an Acute
Watery Diarrhea (AWD)/cholera outbreak in 12 of its 18
regions, with the fatality rate hitting percent at one
point, more than double the emergency
Nearly million people continue to be at risk of
contracting water-borne diseases like An
estimated 926,000 people were displacement by the
drought from November 2016-September
This pressure on already weak infrastructure and
services, especially clean drinking water and sanitation,
is contributing to an increased disease burden in
the country.
Executive Summary |
20 | Somalia Drought Impact & Needs Assessment
Mohamed Ismail Yasin, originally from Mayle village
in northeast Somalia, fled the region’s prolonged
and severe drought with his six-member family and
most of his livestock. They had to travel 600km to the
nearest dependable water source: a sand dam near
Bandarbeyla in neighbouring Bari region. Mohamed
is one of hundreds of thousands of people currently
displaced by the drought in Somalia.
Due to the ongoing drought in Puntland, water
prices have been rising dramatically and a family
with an average sized livestock herd might pay up to
USD 400 per month for water, or USD 7-14 per day
depending on livestock size. These rising costs can be
catastrophic for families.
The Biyo-Gadud sand dam near Banderbeyla is one
of the water harvesting structures implemented in
Puntland to reduce the impacts of climate change-
induced disasters like droughts and floods. Completed by the Puntland Ministry of Environment, through
a Global Environment Facility-financed UNDP-supported project, the sand dam is saving livestock and
saving lives.
For Mohamed Ismail Yasin and his family, the water dam has been a life and money saver. The USD 200 -USD
400 a month he used to be charged for water can now be put towards other basic needs for his family.
Story by: Andrea Egan, Salah Dahir, Awil Abdinor, Said Isse, Keelin Fitzgerald and UNDP Somalia/Photos:
Said Isse, UNDP Somalia
Box 3: Water Harvesting Changes Lives
Rainfall Analysis
Rainfall in Somalia has historically been low and
inconsistent. Descending motion of the air and the
resulting low humidity is cited as the main cause for this
variability in rainfall. Somalia is further subjected to low
rainfall since it is located towards the leeward side of the
Kenyan and Ethiopian highlands. The orographic and
coastal influences are also regarded as significant and
affect the pattern of rainfall in the country.
Effective planting rains during the Deyr and Gu season
have become erratic, delayed and below average over
the years as shown in Figure 4. Somalia experiences two
rainy seasons, Deyr and Gu. Deyr lasts from October to
December while the Gu season extends from April to
June. In 2016-17, the planting rains started around early
September and were erratic in distribution and amounts
in most parts of the country. Figure 2 describes the
monthly rainfall observed in Somalia in comparison to
the long-term average and also illustrates the deficit of
the 2016-17 rainy season.
From September 2016 to June 2016, Somalia received
significantly below-average rainfall. During September
2016 to December 2016, percent less than average
rainfall was reported across the affected districts, with
30 out of 42 districts in central and southern Somalia
reporting less rainfall than the previous year and 26 out
of 32 districts in Somaliland and Puntland reporting
less rainfall than in 2016. Overall, Somalia experienced
percent less than the average rainfall with 19 out
of 32 districts in Somaliland and Puntland recording less
rainfall than the previous year.
21 Executive Summary |
22 | Somalia Drought Impact & Needs Assessment
Figure 3a: Impact of the Drought
(October 31st 2016-June 30th 2017) Figure 3b: Rain Effect (April 2017-June 2017)
Source: Courage Services Inc. Source: Courage Services Inc.
The 2017 Gu rains were delayed and 20-30 percent below average, with pockets of rainfall as much as 25-50 percent
below average along the south. The start of the 2017 Deyr season in October was no better, with rains approximately
50 percent below average in most areas, and predictions of below average rainfall in November and December. As a
result, Crisis (IPC Phase 3) and Emergency (IPC Phase 4) food security outcomes were expected to persist with a chance
of further deterioration through May
29 FSNAU and FEWSNET 2017. Somalia Food Security Outlook : October 2017 to May 2018.
23
Summary of Disaster Effects and Impacts:
Damages, Losses and Needs
With damages amounting to USD billion and
losses estimated at USD billion, the total effect of
the Somali drought is expected to exceed USD
billion. The productive sector (Irrigation and Rain-fed
Crops, Livestock and Fisheries) accounts for 59 percent
of all the effects, while the physical (Water & Sanitation,
Environment and Transport), social (Health, Nutrition
and Education), and cross-cutting themes make up 38
percent, 1 percent, and 1 percent, respectively. The two
most affected sectors are Livestock, and Environment &
Natural Resource Management, comprising 50 percent
and 36 percent of the total effects, respectively. The
next most affected sector is crops, which makes up 10
percent of the total damages and losses. A summary of
the damages and losses across sectors can be found in
Figures 5 and 6.
Agriculture (irrigation and rain-fed crops) and urban
development and municipal services are the sectors
with the greatest needs, representing percent and
percent of total needs, respectively, followed by
water supply and sanitation ( percent), transport (
percent), livestock ( percent), nutrition ( percent),
environment, clean natural resources management (
percent), and health ( percent).
Executive Summary |
24 | Somalia Drought Impact & Needs Assessment
25 Executive Summary |
26 | Somalia Drought Impact & Needs Assessment
Table 1: Summary of Damages, Losses, and Needs Across All Sectors
Cost (USD)
Damages Losses Needs
Productive Sectors
Agriculture - Irrigation and Rain-Fed Crops 63,789,000 247,655,790 500,292,663
Agriculture - Livestock 350,687,691 1,262,317,038 110,494,000
Agriculture - Fisheries - 9,965,562 5,650,000
Productive Sectors Total 414,476,691 1,519,938,391 616,436,663
Physical Sectors
Water Supply & Sanitation 41,958,000 20,480,616 180,738,000
Transport - - 147,900,000
Environment & Natural Resource Management 564,795,354 610,683,583 99,853,510
Physical Sectors Total 606,753,354 631,164,199 428,491,510
Social Sectors
Health - 32,570,088 82,132,713
Nutrition - 3,132,587 104,131,888
Education - - 43,629,471
Social Sectors Total - 35,702,676 229,894,072
Cross-cutting Issues
Urban Development & Municipal Services - - 293,273,694
Social Protection & Safety Nets - - 13,183,000
Food Security - - 25,360,000
Livelihoods & Employment - 46,622,167 22,100,000
Gender & Social Inclusion - - 44,200,000
Governance - - 58,360,000
Conflict - - -
Displacement & Migration - - 26,000,000
DRR - - 5,000,000
Macro Impact - - 3,500,000
Cross-cutting Issues Total - 46,622,167 490,976,694
Grand Total 1,021,230,045 2,233,427,432 1,765,798,938
27© IOM
28 | Somalia Drought Impact & Needs Assessment
Overview of Pre-Drought Conditions,
Drought Impact and Recovery Needs
by Sector
Overview of Pre-Drought Conditions
Productive Sectors
Agriculture – Irrigation and Rain-fed Crop Production:
The agriculture sector is Somalia’s second largest
source of economic activity, employment, and exports,
with agropastoralists estimated at about 23 percent
of the total population. Smallholder farming accounts
for 80 percent of total crop output and 70 percent of
marketed agricultural produce. In the early part of this
decade, Somalia was producing only 22 to 50 percent
of the country’s per capita cereal needs. Agricultural
imports have steadily increased, reaching almost USD
billion by 2015, from an annual average of only about
USD 82 million in the late 1980s because of failures of
domestic crop production and high demand due to
rapid population growth and urbanization.
Agriculture – Livestock: Livestock is the major source
of livelihoods for Somalis. Over 60 percent of the
population in Somalia is dependent on livestock for
their livelihoods. The sector provides food, employment
and incomes and contributes 40 percent of the GDP.
The livestock exportation rate has increased in the
last five years, as Somalia exported million animal
heads in 2011, million in 2013, 5 million in 2014
and million in 2015, injecting more than USD 360
million and USD 384 million in 2014 and 2015 into the
economy, respectively.
Agriculture – Fisheries: Marine fishery dominates
the fisheries sector. Coastal communities are heavily
dependent on fishing, carried out mostly by men.
Women dominate fish processing, trading, and support
activities, and some women are multiple boat owners,
although there are no specific numbers available to
quantify the division of labor in the sector between men
and women. Fishing is, however, a seasonal activity for
many rural dwellers, including pastoralists, and often
an important source of supplementary food and cash
income. The impact of the drought is minimal on the
marine fisheries sector, but has significant potential to
negatively impact the small inland fisheries sector, which
provides essential household food security and some
income. The focus of this report in terms of impact of
the drought is therefore solely on the inland fisheries
sub-sector, with some limited analysis of linkages to the
marine sector.
Physical Sectors
Water Supply & Sanitation: Water resources in
Somalia are dominated by surface water. During the
baseline period of 2013-2015, Somalia Water and Land
Information Management (SWALIM) estimates that
© UNDP Somalia
29
there were around 3,733 water points, 61 percent (2,261
sources) of which were reported to be perennial, under
normal conditions. Higher proportions of berkads and
dams supply water for only part of the year compared
to other sources. In other parts of the country, rainwater
harvesting through the provision of dug outs, Berkads
and Mugciids to impound surface runoff during the two
rainy seasons—Gu (April to June) and Deyr (October to
December)—are a common feature of the water supply
infrastructure in rural communities.
Transport: The transport sector is considered an enabling
sector for other sectors, providing linkages to regional
trade and socio-economic activities. The transport
sector in Somalia mainly comprises the road sub-sector,
aviation and water transport accessing ports. Roads
are the only mode of land transport for the country as
there are no railways, and therefore, the assessment and
interventions of the sector have been concentrated on
roads. Most roads in Somalia are in poor condition due
to lack of proper maintenance caused by long periods of
civil war. Based on visual assessment of satellite imagery,
approximately 7,960 km of roads, or percent of the
total network (including unclassified feeder roads) are
considered to be in good or fair condition.
Environment, Clean Energy, Natural Resource Manage-
ment: The environment and natural resources of Somalia
are a source of economic livelihoods for millions of So-
malis. About 98 percent of Somalia is dry landmass, with
less than 2 percent of the country under water. Depen-
dence on the sector has had significant impact through-
out the years, including depletion of vegetation resourc-
es and forest cover.
Social Sectors
Health: The conflict-related fragility of Somalia over
the past two and a half decades has resulted in the
weakening of the health sector, its systems and its
personnel, with a related focus on emergency response
interventions to recurrent crises. Countrywide, there
is less than 1 health facility per 10,000 people, and
many health posts do not operate fully due to human
resource and infrastructure constraints. A pre-drought
survey identified a total of 1,074 facilities in existence,
of which 106 were found to be non-functional and 169
unreachable due to conflict and other similar factors. A
serious scarcity of health workers is a major challenge
faced by the sector. Approximately million people
were in need of emergency health services in 2016.
Nutrition: Somalia is among the ten countries with the
highest prevalence of malnutrition in the world, and the
third highest in the eastern and southern Africa region,
at percent Global Acute Malnutrition (GAM)
amongst children under five years (U5), with percent
being severely malnourished. The period between Gu
2011 and Deyr 2011 represented the most severe famine
in Somalia, followed by periods of relative good rains
showing decline of GAM and SAM cases. The onset
of Gu 2016 showed a rapid deterioration in GAM. As
per the recent FSNAU Post-Gu 2017 food security
and nutrition assessment findings, the current GAM
population quantified from both IDPs settlements and
Rural Livelihood zones has increased by 20 percent and
10 percent, respectively.
Education: Pre-drought season and the signs of the
impacts of the drought can be traced back to early 2016.
A pre-famine warning was declared in January 2016,
for an even larger population at risk than during the
2011 famine. According to the UNHCR Protection and
Return Monitoring Network (PRMN), the data indicates
possible pattern of intra-regional displacement, which
affects enrollment.
Cross-cutting Themes
Food Security: Food security is a cross-cutting sector that
reflects the combined effects of drought on food security
related sectors such as agriculture (crop production,
access to agricultural employment), livestock (livestock
production and reproduction), trade and market prices
(food and livestock prices and purchasing power of the
population). The average pre-drought (2015) number
of people in acute food security Crisis and Emergency
(IPC Phases 3 & 4) was 983,000. Following consecutive
seasons of poor Gu and Deyr, food crisis has worsened
in rural areas.
Livelihoods & Employment: The labor market is
characterized by an over dependence on the livestock
sector, which provides employment to approximately 60
percent of the workforce. There is a significant rate of
underemployment (19 percent), which when combined
with an open unemployment rate of 22 percent, implies
that almost half of the work force is comprised of either
unemployed or workers in low paying jobs. Youth
unemployment is a growing concern, with 48 percent
of youth either unemployed or projected to be in low
productive, low paying employment.
Social Protection & Safety Nets: Social protection as a
sector does not exist formally. The bulk of the assistance
provided is project based, delivered mostly through
the development partners and NGOs and is reliant on
unpredictable financing. Significant segments of the
Somali population are economically and/or socially
vulnerable to shocks such as the current drought. There
is a need for a reliable response beyond the humanitarian
phase with a clear national operating institution for
social protection limits gains that can be made beyond
short-term assistance.
Executive Summary |
30 | Somalia Drought Impact & Needs Assessment
Gender: In Somalia, women are disadvantaged
compared to men on all socio-economic and human
development indicators. With a Gender Inequality
Index of , the country ranks fourth lowest globally.
Social norms and power structures impact the lives
and opportunities available to different groups of
men and women. With more than 50 percent of
the population under the age of 15, addressing
gender inequalities is critical to maximize impact and
socioeconomic development and build resilience and
sustainable peace.
Urban Development & Municipal Services: Somalia
has experienced rapid urbanization due to significant
migrations caused by protracted conflicts, insecurity,
and cyclical natural disasters. As of September 2017,
there are an estimated million protracted internally
displaced persons (IDPs) in Somalia, most of whom
reside in urban The country is also witnessing
increasing numbers of returnees and refugees from
neighboring countries. IDPs have moved to urban
centers, settling on public and private lands within and
in the outskirts of cities. The ad hoc IDP settlements have
exacerbated the urban sprawl in the cities, compounding
pressure on land and service delivery. In the absence of
security of land tenure, IDPs are highly vulnerable to
forced eviction.
Governance: Despite challenges of protracted armed
conflict and disaster (including droughts famines,
and floods), the presence of the State has reemerged
through a new three-tiered federal system – FGS,
FMS, and district level government. A new National
Development Plan for Somalia (2017-19) has been
issued for the first time in 30 years. As the government
works to strengthen core functions and establish
the foundations of its federalist system, its ability to
provide public services remains severely constrained.
For example, education and health received only
percent of the federal budget (USD million) in 2016,
of which only 39 percent was disbursed. Government
capacity and resources for drought response are even
more limited, given that many of the relevant structures
have only recently been established or have yet to be
formed. Revenue mobilization remains insufficient to
meet demands.
Conflict: Violent conflict is present in Somalia at several
interrelated levels. The civil war, which erupted in 1991
after the overthrow of the Barre regime, and resultant
collapse of the central government pitted armed
factions against each other, often recruited along
lineage lines. Additionally, violent jihadism was added
to this scenario in the form of the Islamic Courts Union
(ICU) from which al-Shabaab subsequently arose. Third,
local communal conflicts, typically over natural resources
such as land, pasture, water rights, or economic rents,
can result in violence, often at the sub-clan level. Fourth,
the incidence of criminal, interpersonal violence and
gender-based violence is high. Much of this conflict
has, at times, been exacerbated by the involvement of
Somalia’s neighbors and broader regional and global
interests. Together, these factors continue to make
Somalia the most conflict-affected country in Africa in
2017, with 3,287 recorded fatalities and 1,537 violent
events as of September 22nd. Three bomb attacks in
Mogadishu in October 2017 – including the October
14 attack that killed over 500 – show that the threat
remains significant.
Displacement: Prior to the current drought, over
million people were already internally displaced, while
just one million Somali refugees lived in neighboring
countries. Forced displacement has occurred in
Somalia due to more than 20 years of internal conflict,
insecurity, political uncertainty, human rights violations
and governance failures. These factors are further
compounded by cyclical environmental challenges
including periods of acute drought and famine. Many
communities have further experienced multiple
displacements from the forcible acquisition of their
land or forced evictions, particularly in urban areas,
contributing to a loss of assets and livelihoods.
DRR, Risk Financing and Drought Resilience: Somalia
is highly vulnerable to disasters; the country ranks 15th
among developing countries at high disaster risk. In
addition to drought, floods are annual phenomena with
the most severe occurrence during the months of March-
May and September-November in the riverine areas along
the two rivers, Jubba and Shabelle. In the absence of
committed DRR institutions in Somalia, the combination
of drought and floods compounded by conflict has
resulted in full-scale humanitarian crises. Disaster risk
management actors and associated response strategies
are fragmented and do not necessarily reflect current
theory or best practice in disaster risk management.
30 UNOCHA. 2017. Humanitarian Needs Overview: Nov. 2017.
31
Overview of Impact: Results and Findings
Productive Sectors
Agriculture – Irrigation and Rain-fed Crop Production
(USD million in damages; USD million in
losses): The greatest impact of the drought in the
agriculture sector has been on crop production losses
arising from both reduced land area under cultivation
and much reduced yields at harvest. Rain-fed staple
food crops (mainly sorghum, cowpeas, and also some
rain-fed sesame) in the inter-riverine regions of Bay
and Bokool suffered from a multiple-season lack of
rains starting in early 2016, and irrigation crops in the
Shabelle valley regions (mainly maize, most sesame,
and rice, bananas, and tomatoes, among other crops)
suffered from the double impact of lack of rains and a
drying river. The total monetary loss associated with all
four main staple food crops’ output is estimated at USD
million, with maize and sorghum combined at USD
million, sesame at USD million and cowpeas at
USD million.
Agriculture – Livestock (USD million in damages;
USD billion in losses): Damages in the sector refers
to the death of animals due to lack of water, pasture
and disease prevalence, while loss refers to the effect of
drought on the production and productivity of livestock.
It is estimated that during the drought, Somalia lost over
million of its total livestock population valued at over
USD 350 million in addition to losses in productivity in
terms of milk yield and body weight valued at about USD
billion. Livestock losses have been very high among
poor families, averaging 40-60 percent in the north and
20-40 percent in the center and south.
Agriculture – Fisheries: (USD million in losses):
Effects of the drought on the sector include loss of
income as a direct result of reduced landings and loss
of assets as families depending on fisheries are forced to
sell their fishing gear (lines, nets and/or boat). The latter
has been quantified as approximately USD million,
assuming that 25 percent of those fishers who earn
an income (part-time/seasonal/full-time) from fishing
have lost their assets. Effects also include loss of and/
or restricted access to fishing grounds if river beds silt
up and water/river-flow does not return to a proper level
for breeding and harboring of fish; and loss of food and
sources of important nutrients due to reduced catch.
Physical Sectors
Water & Sanitation (USD million in damages; USD
million in losses): Damages because of the current
drought on water supply and sanitation were mainly on
water sources (boreholes, shallow wells, berkads), while
losses resulted largely from the increased burden on
insufficient household income to pay more for water.
The cost of vended water has increased by 50 percent
during the critical drought period. Price data for water
vended by tanker trucks, carts and kiosks shows that
following the failed Deyr rains in November 2016, the
average cost of water went up from USD 4 to USD 6 per
cubic meter (m3). In addition to higher average costs,
there was greater variability in water prices during the
period December 2016 to April 2017. Additionally,
multiple shallow wells have dried up, and water levels
in most boreholes have decreased to abnormally low
levels, forcing many boreholes to operate over increased
hours to meet demand, resulting in greater wear and
increasing potential damage.
Transport: Damages and losses have not been computed
for the transport sector since the infrastructure was not
directly impacted. Secondary losses experienced for
transport services are difficult to compute and have not
been included in the analysis.
Environment, Clean Energy, and Natural Resource
Management (USD million in damages; USD
million in losses): An estimated 18 percent of the
total national landmass in natural standing vegetation
on average was lost in the drought period, potentially
affecting the lives and livelihoods of an estimated 6
million (or more than 50 percent) of the estimated
total population. Some 93,000 tons of topsoil has been
eroded as a direct result of the drought in 2017, resulting
in aggregate damages and losses in soil fertility functions
and ecosystem services estimated at USD 36 million
and USD 3 million, respectively. The continued effect of
droughts and inappropriate land use practices have also
resulted in widespread destruction of plant life, further
decreasing animal habitats.
Health (USD million in losses): No damages to the
sector can be solely attributable to drought. Losses in
the sector primarily stem from increase in the number
of new cases of disease, increase in mobile health units
leading to increased cost of maintaining and managing
Executive Summary |
32 | Somalia Drought Impact & Needs Assessment
these units, and the destruction of secondary health
facilities. The outbreak of epidemic-prone diseases such
as Acute Watery Diarrhea (AWD)/cholera, measles and
malaria, some of which are cross-border outbreaks, has
occurred due to the drought. Somalia has experienced
a large-scale outbreak of cholera since the beginning of
2017. A total of 77,783 cases of AWD and 1,159 deaths
(CFR percent) were reported in different parts of
Somalia from January to September 2017. Of these
cases, percent have occurred in children below five
years of age.
Nutrition (USD million in losses): Immediate losses
were incurred in treating SAM and MAM children
and PLW; mass screenings and operational costs; the
affected zones and vulnerable groups, including U5s and
PLW. The drought and insecurity driven influx of IDPs
into major urban centers has compounded the drought
effects. UNHCR estimates over 926,000 people were
displaced due to the drought from Nov. 2016-Sep. 2017,
further straining the limited resources available and
leaving the most vulnerable (pregnant/nursing mothers
and children) at risk.
Education: Drought-related displacement has drastically
affected children’s access to education services.
As a consequence of the prolonged drought, the
sector experienced the following effects: disruption
of school calendar in some regions of the country;
scarcity of adequate safe water in schools; scarcity
of nutritious food for children and their families; and
increased enrollments in displacement destinations
resulting in stretched existing school resources. On
average, the prolonged drought affected an estimated
384,000 school-age children with varying severity
scales. For Somalia as a whole, the total proportion of
children forced out of schools reached an estimated 8
percent by May 2017.
Cross-cutting Themes
Food Security: In southern part of Somalia, which is
the major crop producing part of the country, the 2016
Gu cereal production was estimated at 65,000 tonnes.
This is 49 percent below the long-term average (1995-
2015) and 20 percent below the five-year average for
2011-2015. An estimated USD million has been
spent on providing food security assistance in response
to the current drought. An estimated USD million
has been spent over the 2016-2017 drought period on
increased commercial import of cereals to Somalia.
Livelihoods & Employment (USD million in
losses): Over 900,000 livestock dependent households
(pastoralists and agropastoralists) are affected, with
an estimated USD 875 million of direct income lost
in the livestock sector alone. Impacts are particularly
© UNSOM
33
significant on women who predominate in livestock
dependent chains, with an estimated loss across 4,500
micro enterprises/kiosks of USD 26 million. The drought
has exacerbated what was already a dire situation in
relation to employment and livelihoods. Jobs and
incomes in related value chains have also been reduced.
Combining the estimated numbers of pastoralists
and agropastoralist who have ceased their livelihood,
with data on IDPs, humanitarian assessments and
the loss of national GDP, it is estimated that the open
unemployment rate is over 50 percent.
Social Protection & Safety Nets: The drought impact is
reflected in the extent and nature of vulnerability, poverty
or risk of falling into poverty, and lack of autonomy,
discrimination and marginalization. Significant segments
of the Somali population are economically and/or
socially vulnerable to shocks such as the current drought.
Gender: The drought has exacerbated the existing
vulnerabilities and social marginalization of women and
has induced massive displacement, with the majority of
the displaced women and children. Prolonged exposure
to the drought has extended traditional coping strategies,
such as migration and family separation, contributing to
school drop-outs of boys and girls and necessitating
women to bear disproportionate responsibilities. The
combination of increased travel distances in search of
water and firewood, additional unpaid care work in the
face of increased drought-related diseases and the need
to adopt an income earning role has resulted in increased
work burden for women and increased drop-out rate for
girls. During the drought, vulnerable people, including
child and female-headed households, are exposed to
protection risks such as forced evictions, discrimination
based on status and family separations due to lack of
support structures and ungoverned settlements; giving
them limited access to protective shelter. As women
and girls travel longer distances without protection to
find water, food, livelihoods and other resources,
particularly IDPs traveling outside formal or informal
settlement areas, they are more exposed to gender-
based violence (GBV).
Urban Development & Municipal Services: The 2016-2017
drought has resulted in around 926,000 newly displaced
people between November 2016 and September 2017,
with many hosted in settlements in Mogadishu (161,000
people), Baidoa (174,000 people) and Kismayo (42,000
people). These cities alone host almost 40 percent of
the total drought-related displacements. The large and
rising influx of drought-related displaced people into
Somalia’s urban areas puts additional stress on already
strained key sectors, particularly land, housing, health,
education, water supply and sanitation, protection
and jobs. Ad hoc IDP settlements in the outskirts of
cities have exacerbated the urban sprawl in the cities,
compounding pressure on land and service delivery. In
the absence of security of land tenure, IDPs are highly
vulnerable to forced eviction. Most of the drought
induced IDPs currently reside on government or private
land and do not have the authorization to build more
permanent types of shelter. Uncontrolled and informal
exploitation of aquifers threaten sustainability, safety
and access to water supplies in the city.
Governance: The drought has placed significant strain
on already stretched Government resources. It has
understandably diverted attention from long-term
institutional strengthening towards the provision of
lifesaving support. However, the impact on public
services was mitigated by the very limited role the
Government plays in service delivery. Nonetheless, the
Government has persisted in implementing reforms and
strengthening core capacity at federal, state and district
levels, with the support of the international community,
albeit with slower than expected results.
Conflict: The drought in Somalia has exacerbated
conflicts over pasturelands and natural resources.
“Conflict or violence” was the most frequently cited of
the difficulties or shocks in the survey undertaken for
this assessment in October 2017, with almost one in
four households having experienced conflict or violence
in the previous month. Drought and conflict, both
independently and in combination, cause displacement.
The two are so closely intertwined as drivers of
displacement that it is not always possible or meaningful
to distinguish between them. Of the million internally
displaced between Nov. 2016 and Sep. 2017, 171,000 are
classified as “conflict/security” related, and 926,000 as
“drought related.” “Conflict-driven” displacement was
more geographically focused, with 71 percent being
displaced from just one of Somalia’s 18 regions, Lower
Shabelle in South West State.
Displacement: The current drought, combined with
increasing incidence of conflict, has rapidly accelerated
rates of internal displacement in Somalia. While
household data indicate a relatively even share of male-
and female-headed households (48 and 52 percent
respectively) among the newly displaced, nearly 65
percent of those displaced fall under the age of 18.
Women and children under the age of 18 therefore
account for more than three-quarters (84 percent) of
those Recent displacements extend primarily
31 Ibid.
Executive Summary |
34 | Somalia Drought Impact & Needs Assessment
29 berkads require complete replacement while 380
boreholes, 728 shallow wells and 54 berkads need to be
rehabilitated.
Transport (USD million): The main objective of
recovery in the transport sector is to provide accessibility
to drought-affected areas by maintaining and
rehabilitating roads that are in bad condition to allow for
relief initiatives to reach the intended beneficiaries. This
will need to follow a Building Back Better concept to
build resilience to future climate shocks. Some short-term
interventions might entail provision of trucking capacity
to deliver relief items to affected communities on time.
Rehabilitation and reconstruction of roads and bridges
will be done in the short- and medium-term, as some of
the interventions require proper schemes incorporating
procurement of works and options for labor-intensive
works, creating employment opportunities for those
affected and full reconstruction in some cases. Recovery
needs would have to be synchronized with other sectors,
especially the trade and agriculture sectors.
Environment, Clean Energy, and Natural Resource
Management (USD million): Sector recovery needs
include improving: (a) vegetative biomass productivity
and fodder availability; (b) biodiversity; (c) impacts on
soil quality and soil resources; and (d) household energy
and fuelwood situation. Suggested direct interventions
include scaling up evergreen agriculture (EGA) by
integrating with trees-on-farm agroforestry systems for
better resilience, as well as rehabilitation of important
vegetative resources badly affected by drought by
promoting the adoption of sustainable, low-cost
land restoration techniques such as farmer-managed
natural regeneration (FMNR) and integrated soil fertility
management systems (ISFM) for drylands.
Health (USD million): Recovery needs for the
sector include: (a) ensuring that the current health policy
strategic plan is implemented effectively, putting in place
a strategic human resource plan that will increase the
current level of HRH; (b) implementing a comprehensive
health services delivery plan by increasing the number
of functional health facilities; (c) increasing the number
of mobile clinics and specific community interventions
such as immunization campaigns and AWD/cholera
awareness campaigns; (d) increasing the availability of
treatment points for both primary and basic secondary
treatments; and (e) increasing resilience through
better social protection, and gender and vulnerable
population targeting.
Nutrition (USD million): The recovery needs for
the sector will include: (a) strengthening prevention
and management of acute malnutrition in children
U5 and PLW; (b) timely procurement and provision of
treatment and medical supplies; (c) regular provision
from rural to urban and peri-urban areas. Receiving
regions with the highest concentrations of displaced
include Bay, Benadir, Mudug and Lower Shabelle
respectively, with heaviest concentrations in urban
catchment areas in and around Baidoa, Mogadishu,
Galkayo and Kismayo. The influx of displaced to urban
areas has compounded existing pressures in access to
services, land, and other resources, while reinforcing
earlier patterns of deprivation, marginalization
and exclusion.
Overview of Recovery Objectives and Needs
Productive Sectors
Agriculture – Irrigation and Rain-fed Crop Production
(USD million): Needs for the sector include: (i)
rehabilitation of prewar flood control and irrigation
infrastructure along the two major rivers in southern and
central Somalia and their expansion in both northwestern
and northeastern regions; (ii) more modern storage
techniques and facilities; (iii) rehabilitation of prewar
trunk and rural roads to improve transportation of inputs
to farms and of produce to markets; (iv) institutional
and human capacity building, and (v) improved access
to and adoption of productivity-enhancing and resilient
technologies (Climate Smart Agriculture practices).
Agriculture – Livestock (USD million): Needs for
the sector include: (i) Short term - veterinary services
provision; feed and water provision; and restocking/
redistribution in selected districts; (ii) Medium term
-rehabilitation of livestock watering infrastructure
on the rangelands, rehabilitation of the rangelands
and enhancing management; improving laboratory
facilities for confirmatory disease diagnosis and animal
food residue testing; (iii) Long term - strengthening
institutional capacity for clinical veterinary services; feed
and water development, diversification into poultry
production and bee keeping; genetic research and
breeding; and strengthened regulatory capacity of
veterinary services to supervise and regulate quarantine
operations and certification for trade.
Agriculture – Fisheries (USD million): Needs for the
sector include: (i) distribution of fish nets; (ii) development
of fish landing sites; (iii) development of spet fed desert
aquaculture; and (iv) development of dried fish.
Physical Sectors
Water & Sanitation (USD million): Water and
sanitation sector recovery needs entail: (a) water
supply and sanitation infrastructure rehabilitation; (b)
institutional strengthening and capacity building; and
(c) construction of new water supply infrastructure. It is
estimated that 202 boreholes, 387 shallow wells, and
35
and implementation of vitamin A supplementation and
deworming; (d) nutrition surveillance; (e) monitoring
and evaluation; (f) capacity building, (g) procurement
of materials required for child and maternal health and
(h) nutrition promotion. In view of high number of IDP
communities as a result of both drought and conflict,
increased provision of mobile treatments and treatment
centers is essential.
Education (USD million): The sector recovery
measures are aimed at restoring learning to most affected
regions along with better preparedness and response
systems. The recovery needs for the sector include:
expanding learning spaces; rapid teacher recruitment
and training; distribution of learning materials;
establishing community education committees; and
data collection tools.
Food Security (USD million): To address persistent
and high levels of acute food insecurity, the recovery
needs include: (a) improved food storage; (b) improved
food security early warning systems (c) support for the
development of a national food security strategy; (d)
support for the development of a national poverty
reduction strategy.
Livelihoods & Employment (USD million): The
recovery strategy targets support to women and
youth, with measures to be taken in education, skills
development, Labor Market Information Services (LMIS),
and entrepreneurship and finance. Support should be
provided to women enterprises by supporting women
entrepreneurs across all sectors, including livestock,
to organize themselves into associations, cooperatives
and networks.
Social Protection & Safety Nets (USD million): The
sector needs include: (a) bringing greater coherence to
existing channels and increasing efficiency by increasing
government leadership in the sector; (b) developing
pilot systems, policies and processes that can serve as
a basis for a sustainable social safety nets program; (c)
building capacity at state and district level to start to
engage subnational government actors in monitoring,
vetting and targeting activities; (d) leading research
and analysis for the development of targeting and
registration systems, building on the lessons of current
successful programs.
Gender (USD million): As a cross-cutting issue,
gender needs to be mainstreamed across all sectors
included in the recovery plan. The collection and use
of sex- and age-disaggregated data and strengthening
gender-responsive governance in the short, medium and
long term will facilitate the design and implementation
of gender sensitive policies and interventions. Specific
support to facilitate women’s voices to be heard and
to promote women’s participation and leadership is
required. National- and district-level gender profiles
need to be developed to inform programming.
Furthermore, noting the disproportionate risk exposure
of women and girls, targeted action addressing their
specific needs is needed.
Urban Development & Municipal Services (USD
million): Recovery and resilience activities will focus
on complementing activities in the HRP to support a
quicker transition to durable shelter solutions for IDPs.
This will include addressing some of the underlying
structural deficiencies that perpetuate and compound
the challenge of providing durable solutions, such as
land tenure issues, improved planning to better link
sites to services and better coordination of services
across different populations and sectors. Access to
basic services should be improved through injecting
capacity to coordinate and plan in local government
institutions, particularly at municipal and district levels.
In the medium term, assistance should have a broader
focus to improve urban resilience by investing in the
most affected sectors such as housing, water supply and
sanitation, health, education, protection, as well as job
creation in cities that have experienced or are likely to
experience a large influx of IDPs, while strengthening
the capacity of the sub-national governments to provide
adequate service delivery. In the long-term (beyond 3
years), support should focus on four key areas: regulating
service delivery; streamlining intergovernmental
relations; improving municipal and district urban
planning capacities and approaches; and strengthening
institutions related to land and housing.
Governance (USD million): Recovery needs for
the Governance sector focus on capacity development
for key national institutions to lead, manage, and
monitor programming for drought recovery over the
medium term. Needs include bringing approximately
250 expert personnel on board to contribute to and
manage the daily functions for project development,
implementation, and oversight, supported by the
appropriate equipment, facilities, and training activities.
Other key governance functions for recovery that need
support are information and database management,
facilitating access to finance for social entrepreneurs,
project development, and establishment and capacity
development of disaster management institutions.
Conflict: To address drivers of conflict, the report’s
conflict analysis supports the priority needs outlined and
estimated in the Urban Development and Displacement
sector analyses to address urban poverty and
marginalization, including needs unique to IDPs. These
needs should focus on land policy, infrastructure, shelter,
service delivery, livelihoods, and the development of
smaller urban centers.
Executive Summary |
36 | Somalia Drought Impact & Needs Assessment
Displacement (USD 26 million): Drought recovery
programming should lay the foundation for the
achievement of durable solutions for displaced
populations, refugee returns and affected communities.
Recovery interventions should align with Government-
led efforts to address displacement, including
developmental priorities to enable durable solutions
highlighted in the NDP, as well as build on existing
initiatives to address displacement, such as the Durable
Solutions Initiative. Recovery programming should
address i) urban solutions, including sustainable
integration in urban and peri-urban areas, and; ii)
rural solutions, including return and (re)integration
in rural/remote areas (including IDPs who intend to
return to these areas/places of origin, “stayees”/host
communities, and various vulnerable and minority
groups). For populations in urban or peri-urban areas,
short-term support will focus on addressing basic needs,
access to basic services, protection services, and support
