ꆡꆡꆡꆡ돉놾췆뚯탍춨믵엲헍뗄몬틥ꆢ헧뇰뫍랴춨믵엲헍헾닟:튻룶컄쿗퇐뺿랶횾폂3ꆡꆡ쓚죝쳡튪ꆡ샭싛짏붫춨믵엲헍쟸럖캪탨쟳삭뚯탍춨믵엲헍뫍돉놾췆뚯탍춨믵엲헍늻뷶랴펳쇋춨믵엲헍쳘헷뗄잱퓚닮틬,뛸쟒틾몬ퟅ늻춬뗄헾닟몬틥ꆣ놾컄ퟜ뷡쇋20쫀볍50쓪듺틔살맺쓚췢맘폚돉놾췆뚯탍춨믵엲헍뗄퇐뺿돉맻,냼삨돉놾췆뚯탍춨믵엲헍뗄몬틥ꆢ뒫떼쟾뗀ꆢ헧뇰랽램뫍랴춨믵엲헍헾닟뗈ꆣ퇐뺿뇭쏷탨쟳삭뚯틲쯘퓚돉놾돥믷뒫떼뗄맽돌훐웰떽훘튪ퟷ폃,퓚샭탔풤웚쳵볾쿂,쿠믺뻱퓱뗄늹뎥탔믵뇒헾닟늢럇쫇펦뛔돉놾돥믷뗄ퟮ폅톡퓱,믵뇒헾닟뗄춨믵엲헍쒿뇪맦퓲캪펦뛔돉놾돥믷쳡릩쇋뿉릩뷨본뗄탂쮼슷ꆣ맘볼듊ꆡ춨믵엲헍돉놾췆뚯탨쟳삭뚯믵뇒헾닟튻ꆡ컊쳢뗄쳡돶2006훁2008쓪짏냫쓪,훐맺돶쿖쇋돖탸뗄룟춨믵엲헍쿖쿳ꆣ폫틔췹샺듎춨믵엲헍늻춬,2006쓪춨믵엲헍싊짏짽쫇퓚좫쟲쇷뚯탔맽쪣뫍돵벶닺욷맺볊쫐뎡볛룱뿬쯙짏헇뗄놳뺰쿂돶쿖뗄,틔쿻럑헟볛룱횸쫽캪듺뇭뗄ퟮ훕쿻럑욷볛룱뿬쯙짏헇뗄춬쪱,풭닄쇏릺뷸볛룱횸쫽퓚듋웚볤튲뇭쿖돶샠쯆뗄짏헇쟷쫆ꆣ돽듋횮췢,맺쓚릤쮮욽튲돶쿖쇋뷏듳럹뛈뗄짏헇늢쟒퓚짙쫽뗘쟸돶쿖쇋샍뚯릩룸늻ퟣ쿖쿳ꆣ퓚듋놳뺰쿂,맺쓚3랶횾폂:훐맺죋쏱듳톧뺭볃톧풺100872ꆡ뗧뮰:82500265ꆡ뗧ퟓ탅쿤:fzy8410@ꆣ놾컄뗃떽맺볒짧믡뿆톧믹뷰쿮쒿ꆰ훐맺춨믵엲헍훐뗄탨쟳삭뚯폫돉놾췆뚯틲쯘퇐뺿벰웤헾닟톡퓱ꆱ(08CJL010)뫍훐맺죋쏱듳톧985릤돌ꆰ훐맺뺭볃퇐뺿헜톧짧믡뿆톧뒴탂믹뗘ꆱ뗄훺ꆣퟷ헟룐킻쓤쏻짳룥죋뫍훐맺죋쏱듳톧뺭볃톧풺퇮쇖뷠뛔놾컄뗄냯훺,컄퓰ퟔ뢺ꆣ쫀뷧뺭볃3ꆡ2010쓪뗚1웚ꆡꆤ123ꆤ
ꆡꆡ돉놾췆뚯탍춨믵엲헍뗄몬틥ꆢ헧뇰뫍랴춨믵엲헍헾닟:튻룶컄쿗퇐뺿맘폚듋싖춨믵엲헍뗄돉틲탎돉쇋뛠훖맛뗣ꆣ웤훐튻훖맛뗣죏캪듋듎춨믵엲헍쫇뗤탍뗄돉놾췆뚯탍춨믵엲헍,헢샠맛뗣쯤좻늢늻럱죏믵뇒뫍탅듻뷰릩룸뿉쓜믡뛔춨믵엲헍닺짺펰쿬,떫룼쟣쿲폚죏캪맺볊풭폍볛룱ꆢ얩닺욷볛룱뫍릤짏헇쫇떼훂훐맺춨믵엲헍싊짏짽뗄룼훘튪풭틲ꆣ뛸쇭튻훖맛뗣퓲죏캪듋듎춨믵엲헍죔좻쫇평맽뛈탨쟳퓬돉뗄ꆣꋙ뛔폚춨믵엲헍샠탍뗄죏뚨늻뷶뻟폐샭싛틢틥,뛸쟒룼훘튪뗄뮹퓚폚훎샭늻춬샠탍뗄춨믵엲헍쯹닉좡뗄헾닟쫇늻춬뗄ꆣ룹뻝튻냣뗄맛뗣,뛔폚탨쟳삭뚯탍춨믵엲헍,훎샭뗄쫖뛎퓚폚닉좡뷴쯵탔뫪맛헾닟ꆣ뛸퓚쏦뛔돉놾돥믷쪱,뷴쯵뗄헾닟폐뿉쓜퓬돉폐킧릩룸늻ퟣ,듓뛸볓뻧뺭볃쫕쯵톹솦,틲듋돉놾췆뚯탍춨믵엲헍뗄훎샭쓑뛈튲룼듳ꆣ맺쓚맘폚돉놾췆뚯탍춨믵엲헍샭싛뗄퇐뺿쪼폚20쫀볍80쓪듺ꆣ퓧웚뗄퇐뺿ퟅ훘뾼달쇋퓚맺폐뺭볃햼맺쏱뺭볃뻸뛔뇈훘놳뺰쿂,캪놣횤웳튵펯샻뫍닆헾쫕죫뛸랢짺뗄돉놾볞쿖쿳,샽죧뷰훘죊(1987)ꆣ듋뫳틠폐뺭볃톧볒뷡뫏떱쪱뺭볃쳥훆뗄ힴ뿶샻폃짏쿂폎볛룱뒫떼맘쾵살럖컶훐맺뗄춨믵엲헍쿖쿳,죧랮룙(1995)ꆣ좻뛸뫺킡욽뗈(1994)ꆢ싀붭쇖(1995)뻹뛔돉놾볞쟾뗀쳡돶훊틉,늢쟒잿뗷횸돶쫐뎡릩탨ힴ뿶뿉쓜믡뛔돉놾뒫떼쟾뗀퓬돉펰쿬,쳘뇰쫇퓚릩룸쿠뛔맽쪣뗄쳵볾쿂볛룱뒫떼쟾뗀쫇늻뎩춨뗄ꆣ샮퓆쇖(1997)럖컶쇋릤퓶뎤뎬맽뺭볃퓶뎤쯙뛈뿉쓜떼훂춨믵엲헍싊짏짽뗄죽룶쟾뗀,튻쫇릤퓶뎤쯹탎돉뗄쿻럑탨쟳삩헅;뛾쫇릤쿲놾뮯쯹탎돉뗄춶탨쟳삩헅;죽쫇릤퓶뎤쯹탎돉뗄릩룸돉놾짏짽ꆣ떫ퟷ헟춬쪱튲횸돶릤퓶뎤뎬맽뺭볃퓶뎤쯙뛈늢늻뇘좻틽랢춨믵엲헍ꆣ뻍뺭퇩퇐뺿뛸퇔,Kojima뗈(2005)랢쿖듓1978훁2004쓪훐맺쏻틥떥캻샍뚯돉놾폫춨믵엲헍뻟폐뷏룟뗄쿠맘탔,ퟷ헟뻝듋에뛏릤짏헇뿉쓜쫇틽웰춨믵엲헍싊짏짽뗄훘튪틲쯘,뛸떼훂릤짏헇뗄풭틲뿉쓜쫇평폚릤헾닟뗷헻,뛸늻쫇짺닺싊믲헟샍뚯릩탨랢짺뇤뮯ꆣ랶횾폂(2008)춨맽퇐뺿뷸뿚볛룱ꆢ뎬뛮릤뫍믵뇒틲쯘뛔춨믵엲헍뗄펰쿬,랢쿖2000훁2007쓪뎬뛮릤늢럇쫇떼훂춨믵엲헍뗄훷튪틲쯘,튲캴랢쿖듦퓚릤뫍볛룱식탽짏짽뗄폐솦횤뻝ꆣ뫘솦욽뗈(2008)뛔2001훁2008쓪훐맺쿻럑헟볛룱횸쫽폫짺닺헟볛룱횸쫽뗄맘쾵뷸탐퇐뺿,ퟷ헟랢쿖퓚쯹퇐뺿뗄퇹놾웚볤쓚,쿻럑헟볛룱횸쫽쫇짺닺헟볛룱횸쫽뇤뚯뗄룱삼뷜풭틲,쪱훍캪1ꆫ3룶퓂,틲듋ퟷ헟죏캪ꆰ퓚펰쿬틔쿻럑헟볛룱횸쫽살뫢솿뗄맺쓚춨믵엲헍훐,탨쟳랽쏦뗄틲쯘쿠뛔듳폚릩룸랽쏦뗄틲쯘ꆱ,떫ퟷ헟늢늻업돽탨쟳뫍릩룸틲쯘릲춬펰쿬춨믵엲헍ퟟ쫆ꆣꋙ쇵풪뒺(2008)뛔맺쓚맘폚듋싖춨믵엲헍돉틲뗄퇐뺿뷸탐쇋ퟜ뷡,늢뻍룷훖맛뗣뗄샭싛믹뒡뷸탐쇋럖컶ꆣ쫀뷧뺭볃3ꆡ2010쓪뗚1웚ꆡꆤ124ꆤ
랶횾폂ꆡꆡ헫뛔쒿잰맺쓚뛔돉놾췆뚯탍춨믵엲헍퇐뺿짐늻쾵춳뗄쿖ힴ,컒쏇랢쿖훁짙폐틔쿂벸랽쏦뗄컊쳢뿉틔뷸튻늽짮죫퇐뺿ꆣ쫗쿈쫇맘폚돉놾췆뚯탍춨믵엲헍뗄뒫떼믺훆컊쳢ꆣ퓚췪좫뺺헹쳵볾쿂,닺욷볛룱뗈폚뇟볊돉놾,뇟볊돉놾풽룟,닺욷볛룱튲풽룟ꆣ떫쫇퓚튻룶냼몬슢뛏ꆢ럇돤럖뻍튵틔벰뫪맛헾닟룉풤뗄튻냣뻹뫢뿲볜쿂,튪쯘돉놾폫튻냣볛룱쮮욽횮볤뗄맘쾵붫믡뇤뗃뢴퓓뗃뛠ꆣ짺닺돉놾쿲닺욷볛룱뗄뒫떼쟾뗀튲뇤뗃룼볓뢴퓓ꆣ웤듎쫇돉놾췆뚯탍춨믵엲헍뫍탨쟳삭뚯탍춨믵엲헍뗄헧뇰랽램ꆣ쒿잰맺쓚뛔돉놾췆뚯탍춨믵엲헍뗄죏뚨듳뛠뻖쿞폚맺볊쫐뎡볛룱짏헇틔벰짏폎닺욷볛룱짏짽,좻뛸헢늢늻쓜돉캪췪좫쟸뇰돉놾췆뚯뫍탨쟳삭뚯탍춨믵엲헍뗄틀뻝ꆣퟮ뫳쫇훎샭돉놾췆뚯탍춨믵엲헍뗄듫쪩컊쳢ꆣ퓚돉놾돥믷쳵볾쿂,뷴쯵탔믵뇒헾닟폐뿉쓜쪹뺭볃쿝죫훍헇ힴ첬,뛸삩헅탔믵뇒헾닟퓲뿉쓜믡떼훂춨믵엲헍뷸튻늽뛱뮯ꆣ뷸튻늽,쏦쇙돉놾돥믷쪱ퟮ폅뗄믵뇒헾닟펦룃쫇쪲쎴?쫇럱듦퓚볈쓜틖훆춨믵엲헍폖쓜놣횤뺭볃퓶뎤뗄헾닟톡퓱?놾컄헫뛔짏쫶죽룶컊쳢뛔맺쓚췢틑폐뗄퇐뺿뷸탐ퟜ뷡ꆣ쿂컄럖캪쯄룶늿럖,뗚뛾늿럖뛔20쫀볍50쓪듺틔살맘폚돉놾췆뚯탍춨믵엲헍뗄몬틥벰웤뒫떼쟾뗀뗄퇐뺿뷸탐ퟜ뷡;뗚죽늿럖ퟜ뷡돉놾췆뚯탍춨믵엲헍폫탨쟳삭뚯탍춨믵엲헍뗄헧뇰랽램;뗚쯄늿럖쳖싛쏦쇙돉놾돥믷쪱ퟮ폅뗄믵뇒헾닟톡퓱컊쳢,ퟮ뫳쫇놾컄뗄뷡싛ꆣ뛾돉놾췆뚯탍춨믵엲헍뗄몬틥뫍뒫떼믺훆뛔폚춨믵엲헍뗄룹풴,늻춬톧엉폐늻춬뗄볻뷢ꆣFriedman(1963)죏캪ꆰ춨믵엲헍쯦쪱쯦뗘ퟜ쫇튻훖믵뇒쿖쿳ꆱꆣ뛸탂붣쟅톧엉퓲죏캪춨믵엲헍쫇평릤놨돪싊죕틦퓶뎤뛸틽웰뗄컯볛뇤뚯(났믛,2007)ꆣ쿖폐뗄샭싛퇐뺿튻냣붫춨믵엲헍쟸럖캪탨쟳삭뚯탍뫍돉놾췆뚯탍춨믵엲헍,웤훐돉놾췆뚯탍춨믵엲헍폖뿉틔뷸튻늽쟸럖캪평릤돉놾짏짽뫍샻죳짏짽췆뚯뗄춨믵엲헍ꆣ퇐뺿랢쿖탨쟳삭뚯뫍돉놾췆뚯뗄ퟖ쏦몬틥늢늻ퟣ틔좫쏦랴펳늻춬샠탍춨믵엲헍뗄쳘헷,늢캪볬퇩춨믵엲헍뗄샠탍퓬돉쇋삧쓑ꆣ틲듋컒쏇폐뇘튪뷸튻늽짮죫샭뷢돉놾췆뚯탍춨믵엲헍뗄몬틥ꆣ쫂쪵짏돉놾췆뚯탍춨믵엲헍뗄쮼쿫뿉틔ힷ쯝떽쮹춼퇇쳘쪱듺ꆣKibritÔioÏlu(2001)쳡릩쇋튻룶볲튪뗄컄쿗믘맋,ퟷ헟랢쿖뷡릹훷틥(냼삨쮹뾱뗄쓇캬퇇쒣탍)ꆢ뫳뾭뛷쮹훷틥뫍럇뻹뫢뺭볃톧뚼횧돖돉놾췆뚯탍춨믵엲헍뗄맛뗣ꆣ쯹늻춬뗄쫇,뷡릹훷틥잿뗷뗍짺닺싊늿쏅춨맽슢뛏솦솿믱뗃룟짺닺싊늿쏅릤쯹퓬돉뗄릤퓶뎤맽뿬쫇떼훂춨믵엲헍뗄훷튪풭틲;뫳뾭뛷쮹훷틥뫍럇뻹뫢뺭볃톧퓲힢훘잿뗷쫀뷧뺭볃3ꆡ2010쓪뗚1웚ꆡꆤ125ꆤ
ꆡꆡ돉놾췆뚯탍춨믵엲헍뗄몬틥ꆢ헧뇰뫍랴춨믵엲헍헾닟:튻룶컄쿗퇐뺿돉놾볓돉뫍쿠뛔볛룱뇤뮯뛔춨믵엲헍뗄펰쿬ꆣ쓇쎴돉놾췆뚯탍춨믵엲헍뫍탨쟳삭뚯탍춨믵엲헍뗄뻟쳥몬틥럖뇰쫇쪲쎴?Mach2lup(1960)뛔탨쟳삭뚯탍뫍돉놾췆뚯탍춨믵엲헍룅쓮뷸탐쾸럖,탨쟳삭뚯탍춨믵엲헍놻쾸럖캪ퟔ랢탍ꆢ틽훂탍뫍늹뎥탍(autonomous,induced,compensatory),돉놾췆뚯탍춨믵엲헍놻쾸럖캪쿬펦탍ꆢ럀폹탍뫍뷸릥탍(responsive,defensive,aggressive)ꆣퟔ랢탍탨쟳삭뚯춨믵엲헍췪좫평탨쟳틲쯘퓬돉,폫잰웚믲헟풤웚캴살돉놾짏헇컞맘;틽훂탍탨쟳삭뚯춨믵엲헍쫇평폚돉놾짏짽떼훂웳튵듻뿮탨쟳짏짽믲헟릤쫕죫퓶볓,뷸뛸췆뚯뛔춶욷뫍쿻럑욷탨쟳퓶볓퓬돉뗄;늹뎥탍탨쟳삭뚯춨믵엲헍쫇평폚헾뢮캪뇜쏢돉놾돥믷떼훂쪧튵짏짽쯹닉좡뗄삩헅탔닆헾뫍믵뇒헾닟뗄뷡맻ꆣ쿬펦탍돉놾췆뚯춨믵엲헍쫇퓚럇췪좫뺺헹뮷뺳쿂평슢뛏틲쯘(죧릤믡)퓬돉뗄;럀폹탍돉놾췆뚯춨믵엲헍쫇평짺믮돉놾믲헟짺닺돉놾짏짽떼훂릤뫍풭닄쇏볛룱짏헇퓬돉뗄;뛸평샻죳짏짽믲헟룶뇰늿쏅릤짏짽듸뚯헻쳥릤쮮욽짏짽쯹떼훂뗄춨믵엲헍퓲놻돆캪뷸릥탍돉놾췆뚯춨믵엲헍ꆣ듋췢,Machlup뮹쳘뇰횸돶폐킧탨쟳퓶볓쫇돉놾췆뚯탍춨믵엲헍랢짺뗄뇘튪쳵볾ꆣHolzman(1960)죏캪돉놾췆뚯탍춨믵엲헍뷶믡랢짺퓚럇췪좫뺺헹쳵볾쿂ꆣퟷ헟붫돉놾짏짽뛔춨믵엲헍뗄펰쿬럖뷢캪돉놾췆뚯킧펦ꆢ횱뷓돉놾삭뚯킧펦뫍볤뷓돉놾삭뚯킧펦죽룶랽쏦ꆣ돉놾췆뚯킧펦쫇돉놾돥믷뛔볛룱뗄횱뷓펰쿬;횱뷓돉놾삭뚯쫇횸퓚튪쯘볛룱짏짽놳뺰쿂,튪쯘쯹폐헟쫕죫뫍횧돶뇤뮯뛔볛룱뗄펰쿬;볤뷓돉놾삭뚯쫇횸퓚돉놾돥믷쿂,춶ꆢ돶뿚뫍릫릲횧돶뗈웤쯻뇤솿룄뇤뛔볛룱뗄펰쿬ꆣBronfenbrenner뫍Holzman(1963)횸돶,돉놾췆뚯탍춨믵엲헍놾틢쫇잿뗷평폚슢뛏틲쯘쯹떼훂뗄릤뫍볛룱룟폚뻹뫢쮮욽뗄쿖쿳,퓚돉놾췆뚯탍춨믵엲헍맽돌훐늢늻업돽믵뇒릩룸ꆢ쫕죫뫍횧돶퓶뎤뛔볛룱쮮욽뗄펰쿬,쳘뇰쫇퓚헾뢮쫔춼뇜쏢닺돶뫍뻍튵쿂붵럧쿕뗄쟩뿶쿂ꆣ듋췢,ퟷ헟뮹쳘뇰잿뗷쇋돉놾볓돉뚨볛틔벰샻죳췆뚯뛔춨믵엲헍뗄펰쿬ꆣFrisch(1977)퓚Machlup(1960)믹뒡횮짏붫탨쟳삭뚯뫍돉놾췆뚯탍춨믵엲헍럖뇰쾸럖캪ퟔ랢탔(autonomous)뫍틽훂탔(induced)춨믵엲헍,벴컞싛쫇탨쟳삭뚯탍춨믵엲헍뮹쫇돉놾췆뚯탍춨믵엲헍뚼뿉틔쾸럖캪ퟔ랢탔뫍틽훂탔솽훖ꆣ웤훐틽훂탔탨쟳삭뚯탍춨믵엲헍뻍쫇평폚튪쯘볛룱짏짽쯹떼훂폐킧탨쟳퓶볓퓬돉뗄;ퟔ랢탔돉놾췆뚯탍춨믵엲헍퓲쫇퓚ퟜ탨쟳늻뇤쳵볾쿂,평폚릤ꆢ볛룱믲헟샻죳쳡룟퓬돉뗄,틽훂탔돉놾췆뚯탍춨믵엲헍퓲쫇평ퟜ탨쟳퓶뎤퓬돉뗄돉놾짏짽ꆣ훚뛠톧헟뷸튻늽퇐뺿쇋듓돉놾돥믷랢햹떽돉놾췆뚯탍춨믵엲헍뗄쳵볾ꆣAckley(1959)잿뗷퓚돉놾볓돉뚨볛쳵볾쿂,돉놾췆뚯볛룱짏헇뗄뇘튪쳵볾쫇뛌웚쓚탨쟳뛔폚볛룱뇤뮯늻쏴룐,럱퓲탨쟳쿂붵붫쟐뛏돉놾뒫떼쟾뗀ꆣ퓚Friedman(1968)뫍Phelps쫀뷧뺭볃3ꆡ2010쓪뗚1웚ꆡꆤ126ꆤ
랶횾폂ꆡꆡ(1970)쳡돶뗄뢽볓풤웚뗄럆샻웕쮹쟺쿟훐,볛룱룹뻝뺭샍뚯짺닺싊뗷헻뫳뗄릤볓돉뗃떽,쏻틥릤룹뻝춨믵엲헍풤웚짨뚨,듓뛸퓚볛룱뫍쏻틥릤횮볤탎돉식탽짏짽맽돌ꆣ돽듋횮췢,튻킩뺭볃톧볒힢틢떽헾뢮릫릲헾닟퓚돉놾돥믷떼훂춨믵엲헍맽돌훐뗄ퟷ폃ꆣHicks(1975)퓚튻룶뾪럅뺭볃쒣탍훐잿뗷쇋믵뇒릩룸퓶볓퓚돉놾췆뚯탍춨믵엲헍탎돉맽돌훐뗄훘튪ퟷ폃ꆣMishkin(1984)랢쿖,듓20쫀볍70쓪듺틔살뗄10쓪훐,샭싛퇐뺿맘폚춨믵엲헍돉틲뗄맛뗣붥쟷튻훂:춨믵엲헍놻뚨틥캪튻냣볛룱쮮욽뗄돖탸짏짽,뢥샯뗂싼맘폚춨믵엲헍컞싛뫎쪱ퟜ쫇믵뇒쿖쿳뗄맛뗣틑뺭뗃떽맣랺죏춬ꆣ뷸튻늽,Mishkin죏캪돉놾돥믷횮쯹틔떼훂춨믵엲헍쫇평폚헾뢮퓚쏦쇙돉놾돥믷쪱닉좡쇋삩헅탔믵뇒헾닟ꆣ샠쯆뗄,놴쓉컷(1997,훐틫놾)튲죏캪ꆰ쪵볊릤뗄튻룶ퟔ랢퓶볓믡떼훂돉놾탍춨믵엲헍,늻맽횻폐떱헾뢮폐튻룶믵뇒뒴퓬뗄뗷뷚헾닟쪱,쯼닅뿉쓜컞쿞퇓탸쿂좥ꆣꆱ듓돉놾췆뚯탍춨믵엲헍뗄뚨틥살뾴,늻춬뺭볃톧볒뗄맛뗣늢늻튻훂,튻킩뺭볃톧볒붫돉놾짏짽춨맽쮽죋뫍릫릲횧돶짏짽떼훂뗄춨믵엲헍맩캪탨쟳삭뚯탍뗄춨믵엲헍,샽죧Machlup(1960)뫍Frisch(1977),뛸Holzman(1960)ꆢBronfenbren2ner뫍Holzman(1963)퓲붫웤맩캪돉놾췆뚯탍뗄춨믵엲헍ꆣ맘폚돉놾돥믷떼훂춨믵엲헍짏짽뒫떼믺훆뗄퇐뺿튲쳘뇰잿뗷쇋ퟜ탨쟳퓚헢튻맽돌훐뗄ퟷ폃ꆣ듓헢룶뷇뛈붲,Machlup(1960)ꆢFrisch(1977)뗄맛뗣랴뛸뷸튻늽펡횤쇋탨쟳삩헅뛔돉놾췆뚯탍춨믵엲헍뗄훘튪틢틥ꆣ20쫀볍70쓪듺솽듎쪯폍캣믺횮뫳쯦ퟅ뺭볃좫쟲뮯뷸돌볓쯙,듳솿컄쿗뾪쪼맘힢뷸뿚볛룱뛔맺쓚볛룱쮮욽뗄펰쿬ꆣ폐퇐뺿죏캪냼삨쪯폍볛룱짏짽뫍놾뇒뇡횵뷶쓜뷢쫍맺쓚쿠뛔볛룱뗄퓝쪱탔뇤뮯뫍튻듎탔볛룱ퟜ쮮욽짏짽,떫늻믡떼훂춨믵엲헍돖탸짏헇ꆣ뮹폐튻킩맘폚믣싊뒫뗝(pass-through)뫍뷸뿚춨믵엲헍뗄퇐뺿ꆣ믹폚닺튵ퟩ횯쒣탍,Dornbush(1987)뷏퓧뗘춨맽쫐뎡벯훐뛈ꆢ뷸뿚닺욷째춸솦(importpenetration)틔벰맺쓚췢닺욷뗄쳦듺뗈뇤솿뷢쫍믣싊뇤뮯폫맺쓚볛룱늨뚯횮볤뗄맘쾵ꆣ뻍탐튵쳘헷뛸퇔,Feinberg(1986ꆢ1989)뛔쏀맺뫍뗂맺뗄쫽뻝퇐뺿랢쿖,탐튵벯훐뛈풽뗍ꆢ뷸뿚째춸솦풽잿,믣싊늨뚯뛔맺쓚짺닺헟볛룱뗄펰쿬풽잿ꆣGoldberg뫍Knetter(1997)뗄퇐뺿퓲랢쿖,쫐뎡럖룮돌뛈풽룟,믣싊늨뚯뛔뷸뿚볛룱뗄뒫뗝풽킡ꆣTaylor(2000)춨맽튻룶볲떥뗄샭싛쒣탍쮵쏷믣싊돥믷뗄돖탸돌뛈틔벰쫜돥믷펰쿬뗄뎧짌뇈샽붫뻶뚨뎧짌뛔믣싊뇤뚯뗄랴펦,늢뷸튻늽뗃돶믣싊뒫뗝쫇쓚짺폚튻맺춨믵엲헍ힴ뿶뗄뷡싛ꆣGagnon뫍Ihrig(2004)뛔20쫀볍80쓪듺틔살랢듯맺볒믣싊뒫뗝킧펦쿂붵뗄쿖쿳뷸탐쇋럖컶,죏캪헢폫뛠쫽맺볒훐퇫틸탐풽살풽맘힢춨믵엲헍뗄컈뚨탔폐맘ꆣ쇭튻랽쏦튲폐퇐뺿헟뛔돉놾췆뚯탍춨믵엲헍룅쓮놾짭쳡돶쇋엺움ꆣBatten쫀뷧뺭볃3ꆡ2010쓪뗚1웚ꆡꆤ127ꆤ
ꆡꆡ돉놾췆뚯탍춨믵엲헍뗄몬틥ꆢ헧뇰뫍랴춨믵엲헍헾닟:튻룶컄쿗퇐뺿(1981)죏캪돉놾췆뚯탍춨믵엲헍룅쓮믬쿽쇋쿠뛔볛룱짏짽뫍튻냣볛룱쮮욽짏짽솽룶늻춬뗄룅쓮,룶뇰짌욷쿠뛔볛룱짏짽쯤좻뿉쓜떼훂룷훖볛룱횸쫽짏짽,떫좴늻쫇떼훂튻냣볛룱쮮욽짏짽뗄풭틲ꆣ듋췢,Batten랢쿖튻듎탔췢짺볛룱돥믷뿉틔떼훂뻸뛔볛룱쮮욽튻듎탔짏헇,떫늢늻쓜떼훂춨믵엲헍싊돖탸짏짽ꆣBatten뮹횸돶릩룸돥믷뫍ꆰ릤ꆪ볛룱ꆱ식탽짏짽샭싛뗄ퟮ듳좱쿝퓚폚뫶쫓쇋헾뢮퓚볛룱뒫떼훐뗄ퟷ폃,떱헾뢮늻퓶볓믵뇒릩룸쪱,릩룸돥믷뷶쓜퓬돉쿠뛔볛룱뇤뮯뛸늻쫇튻냣볛룱쮮욽짏짽ꆣHum2phrey(1998)춬퇹죏캪돉놾췆뚯탍춨믵엲헍샭싛믬쿽쇋튻냣볛룱쮮욽폫쿠뛔볛룱뗄쟸뇰,돉놾췆뚯샭싛뫶싔쇋튻냣볛룱쮮욽쫇튻룶믵뇒쿖쿳뛸듭컳뗘붫웤뾴ퟷ쫇평쪵볊뇤솿뫍뺺헹틲쯘뻶뚨뗄ꆣHumphrey(1998)뮹랢쿖뺡맜늻춬쪱듺뗄뺭볃톧볒,냼삨샮볎춼ꆢ캬뿋죻뛻ꆢ럑쾣뛻뫍뾨죻뛻뗈죋뛠듎뛔돉놾췆뚯탍춨믵엲헍샭싛뷸탐쇋엺에,떫룃샭싛죔좻폐캪쫽훚뛠뗄횧돖헟ꆣ떼훂헢튻쿖쿳뗄풭틲횮튻쫇탭뛠퇐뺿헟쟡싊뗘붫캢맛뺭볃샭싛췆맣떽튻냣뻹뫢뫪맛뺭볃뿲볜쿂뛸쎻폐뷸탐쿠펦뗄볬퇩ꆣ춨맽컄쿗퇐뺿뿉틔랢쿖,돉놾췆뚯탍춨믵엲헍쫇튻룶듦퓚헹틩뗄룅쓮ꆣ룹뻝뚨틥,춨믵엲헍쫇튻냣볛룱쮮욽뗄돖탸짏짽,춨믵엲헍뿉쓜냩쯦ퟅ쿠뛔볛룱뗷헻,떫뻸늻뷶쫇쿠뛔볛룱뇤뮯ꆣ퓬돉돉놾췆뚯탍춨믵엲헍룅쓮캴놻췪좫뷓쫜뗄풭틲횮튻,쫇평폚돉놾돥믷ퟮ돵쳥쿖캪룶뇰닺욷볛룱짏헇뫍쿠뛔볛룱룄뇤ꆣ뛸춨믵엲헍,벴튻냣볛룱쮮욽뗄돖탸짏짽,죧맻쎻폐믵뇒릩룸퓶볓뗈삩헅탔뗄ퟜ탨쟳돥믷쫇늻뿉쓜랢짺뗄(Mish2kin,1984)ꆣ뛔탎돉믺훆뗄퇐뺿랢쿖돉놾췆뚯탍춨믵엲헍쫇튻룶뢴퓓뗄뚯첬맽돌ꆣꋙ돉놾췆뚯탍춨믵엲헍ퟮ돵뇭쿖캪돉놾짏짽,좻뫳쫇튪쯘쯹폐헟탨쟳짏짽,믲헟헾뢮캪틖훆쪧튵싊짏짽뫍뺭볃쮥췋뛸닉좡삩헅탔뗄닆헾믵뇒헾닟,ퟮ뫳쫇튻냣볛룱쮮욽짏짽,벴랢짺돉놾췆뚯탍춨믵엲헍ꆣ뛔뒫떼쟾뗀뗄퇐뺿랢쿖,돉놾췆뚯탍춨믵엲헍냼몬쇋탨쟳삩헅틲쯘,돉놾짏짽뷶쫇퓬돉돉놾췆뚯탍춨믵엲헍뗄뇘튪쳵볾뛸럇돤럖쳵볾ꆣ퓚돉놾췆뚯탍춨믵엲헍훐,폐킧탨쟳랢믓ퟅ뒫떼쟾뗀뗄ퟷ폃ꆣ돉놾돥믷떼훂폐킧탨쟳퓶볓뗄쟾뗀볈냼삨평폚튪쯘볛룱(죧릤)짏짽쯹퓬돉뗄튪쯘쯹폐헟쫕죫뫍탨쟳퓶볓,튲냼삨헾뢮삩헅탔뗄닆헾ꆢ믵뇒헾닟ꆣ죧맻폐킧탨쟳쿂붵,돉놾짏헇붫쓑틔뮯캪춨믵엲헍ꆣ죧맻돉놾돥믷늻쓜떼훂쮽죋탨쟳퓶볓믲헟헾뢮횧돶퓶볓,쓇쎴돉놾돥믷붫뿉쓜늻믡떼훂튻냣볛룱쮮욽뗄짏짽ꆣ쏀맺퓚20쫀볍80쓪듺뗄랴춨믵엲헍뺭퇩캪듋쳡릩쇋튻룶뫜뫃뗄샽횤ꆣꋙퟷ헟쳘뇰룐킻쓤쏻짳룥죋뛔돉놾췆뚯탍춨믵엲헍뒫떼맽돌뗄뚯첬탔뫍뎤웚탔컊쳢뗄탞룄붨틩ꆣ쫀뷧뺭볃3ꆡ2010쓪뗚1웚ꆡꆤ128ꆤ
랶횾폂ꆡꆡ믣싊뇤뮯믲뷸뿚볛룱짏헇떼훂맺쓚볛룱쮮욽짏짽뗄돌뛈늻뷶폫맺쓚뗄쫐뎡뷡릹폐맘,뛸쟒쫜뎧짌샻죳ퟮ듳뮯탐캪펰쿬ꆣ춬쪱퇐뺿뮹랢쿖,믣싊뒫뗝뗄쪵볊킧맻튲짮쫜믵뇒떱뻖컈뚨춨믵엲헍헾닟뗄펰쿬ꆣ죧맻쎻폐삩헅탔믵뇒헾닟,믣싊돥믷믲헟뷸뿚볛룱돥믷췹췹퓬돉맺쓚볛룱쮮욽뗄튻듎탔짏헇뛸럇춨믵엲헍ꆣ죽ꆡ돉놾췆뚯탍춨믵엲헍뗄헧뇰20쫀볍50쓪듺횮뫳뺭볃톧볒헫뛔탨쟳삭뚯탍춨믵엲헍뫍돉놾췆뚯탍춨믵엲헍쳡돶쇋뛠훖헧뇰랽램ꆣ룹뻝춨믵엲헍헧뇰랽램뗄늻춬,컒쏇듳훂붫퇐뺿럖캪죽룶뷗뛎ꆣ20쫀볍50훁60쓪듺뛔돉놾췆뚯탍춨믵엲헍뗄볬퇩훷튪쫇닉폃뚨탔퇐뺿랽램,죧맻뇤솿횮볤뗄춳볆쳘헷폫돉놾췆뚯탍춨믵엲헍뗄샭싛쳘헷쿠컇뫏,쓇쎴뻍놻죏뚨캪돉놾췆뚯탍춨믵엲헍ꆣ20쫀볍70쓪듺횮뫳볆솿뺭볃톧쒣탍놻맣랺폃살볬퇩풭닄쇏볛룱ꆢ릤뫍ퟮ훕닺욷볛룱횮볤뗄맘쾵,볬퇩랽램뛠틔떥랽돌믘맩캪훷,춨맽믘맩닎쫽뗄쿔훸탔살에뛏돉놾췆뚯틲쯘뫍탨쟳삭뚯틲쯘뛔춨믵엲헍릱쿗뗄쿠뛔잿죵ꆣ20쫀볍90쓪듺횮뫳,돉놾췆뚯탍춨믵엲헍뫍탨쟳삭뚯탍춨믵엲헍헧뇰랽램뗄뷸햹훷튪뇭쿖퓚Granger틲맻볬퇩ꆢ킭헻뫍컳닮탞헽쒣탍뗈탂랽램뗄듳솿닉폃ꆣSelden(1959)듓붻틗랽돌쪽돶랢,죏캪돉놾짏짽췆뚯춨믵엲헍짏헇틠탨춨맽믵뇒솿ꆢ믵뇒쇷춨쯙뛈뫍붻틗솿뗈훐볤뇤솿랢짺ퟷ폃;ퟷ헟듓돉놾췆뚯샭싛틽짪돶6룶쏼쳢늢뷸탐쿠맘볬퇩,랢쿖1955ꆫ1957쓪돉놾틲쯘뛔쏀맺룟춨믵엲헍뗄릱쿗럇뎣폐쿞ꆣSelden뮹죏캪볛룱짏짽뫍닺돶퓶뎤뗄헽쿠맘탔풽잿,탨쟳삭뚯뗄ퟷ폃풽쏷쿔,퓚듋믹뒡횮짏Phelps(1961)뇈뷏쇋1946훁1948쓪뫍헻룶20쫀볍50쓪듺쏀맺춨믵엲헍뫍닺돶퓶뎤횮볤뗄쿠맘쾵쫽,퇐뺿뷡맻랢쿖룃쿠맘쾵쫽퓚뫳튻뷗뛎쿔훸뗍폚잰튻뷗뛎,틲듋ퟷ헟뛏뚨20쫀볍50쓪듺돉놾췆뚯틲쯘뛔춨믵엲헍뗄ퟷ폃퓚퓶잿ꆣHolzman(1960)쳡돶쇋헧뇰돉놾췆뚯탍춨믵엲헍뫍탨쟳삭뚯탍춨믵엲헍뗄죽룶횸뇪,늢죏캪쪧튵싊뇤뮯쫇쿔쪾춨믵엲헍샠탍뗄ퟮ폅횸뇪ꆣ퓚춨뎣ힴ뿶쿂,돉놾(릤)췆뚯탍춨믵엲헍췹췹냩쯦ퟅ쪧튵싊짏짽,뛸탨쟳삭뚯탍춨믵엲헍퓲냩쯦ퟅ쪧튵싊쿂붵ꆣ춨맽뛔쪧튵싊뷸탐볬퇩,ퟷ헟죏캪1955훁1958쓪쏀맺뗄춨믵엲헍쫴폚뗤탍뗄돉놾췆뚯탍춨믵엲헍ꆣHarberger(1963)뛔20쫀볍50쓪듺훇샻뗄볛룱뇤뮯랽돌뷸탐맀볆,춨맽뛔닺돶ꆢ믵뇒릩룸뫍릤뇤솿뷸탐믘맩,ퟷ헟죏캪믵뇒쫇펰쿬춨믵엲헍뗄훷튪틲쯘ꆣ돽듋횮췢,춶죫닺돶랽램퓚헢튻쪱웚튲뾪쪼놻펦폃폚헧뇰춨믵엲헍뗄샠탍ꆣEck2stein뫍Fromm(1959)춨맽춶죫닺돶랽램퇐뺿랢쿖,1947ꆫ1958쓪횮볤쏀맺엺랢볛룱쫀뷧뺭볃3ꆡ2010쓪뗚1웚ꆡꆤ129ꆤ
ꆡꆡ돉놾췆뚯탍춨믵엲헍뗄몬틥ꆢ헧뇰뫍랴춨믵엲헍헾닟:튻룶컄쿗퇐뺿뫍훆돉욷볛룱짏헇훐럖뇰폐40%뫍23%뗄럝뛮쫇평룖쳺볛룱짏헇퓬돉뗄ꆣ좻뛸톧쫵뷧뛔폚붫춶죫닺돶랽램펦폃폚볛룱뒫뗝퇐뺿듦퓚ퟅ뷏듳헹틩,Bronfenbrenner뫍Holz2man(1963)뻍뛔룃랽램뗄좱쿝뷸탐쇋ퟜ뷡ꆣ듋췢,뮹폐튻훖본뇰탨쟳삭뚯탍뫍돉놾췆뚯탍춨믵엲헍뗄랽램쫇뇈뷏믵뇒릤퓶뎤싊뫍샍뚯짺닺싊뗄퓶뎤싊,죧맻잰헟뎬맽뫳헟퓲뇭쏷춨믵엲헍평릩룸랽쏦뗄틲쯘퓬돉,벴랢짺돉놾췆뚯탍춨믵엲헍ꆣBronfen2brenner뫍Holzman(1963)횸돶헢훖본뇰랽램쯤좻볲떥,떫쫇탨튪볙짨샍뚯뇟볊짺닺싊뫍욽뻹짺닺싊돉뇈샽,늢쟒듦퓚맽뛈뷓쫜돉놾췆뚯탍춨믵엲헍뗄럧쿕ꆣ듓20쫀볍70쓪듺뾪쪼,볆솿뺭볃톧쒣탍뾪쪼놻맣랺폃살볬퇩풭닄쇏ꆢ릤뫍ퟮ훕닺욷볛룱횮볤뗄맘쾵ꆣPopkin(1974)춨맽짺닺뷗뛎쒣탍(stageofprocess)퇐뺿쇋1956ꆫ1970쓪풭닄쇏볛룱ꆢ릤뫍뎬뛮탨쟳뛔쿻럑볛룱뫍엺랢볛룱뗄펰쿬ꆣퟷ헟랢쿖풭닄쇏볛룱ꆢ릤뫍뎬뛮탨쟳뛔돽쪳욷횮췢뗄ퟮ훕닺욷볛룱폐뷏잿뗄펰쿬;뛸쪳욷볛룱퓲훷튪쫜풭닄쇏볛룱펰쿬쟒뇭쿖돶뷏잿뗄ퟔ믘맩쳘헷ꆣBarth뫍Bennett(1975)죏캪퓚탨쟳삭뚯탍춨믵엲헍쳵볾쿂,듦퓚ퟅ듓믵뇒듦솿횸쿲볛룱뗄떥쿲틲맻맘쾵;뛸퓚돉놾췆뚯탍춨믵엲헍쳵볾쿂,떥쿲뗄틲맻맘쾵쫇듓돉놾횸쿲볛룱,춨맽볬퇩뇤솿볤뗄틲맻맘쾵뿉틔에뛏춨믵엲헍뗄탔훊ꆣ믹폚Sims(1972)볬퇩틲맻맘쾵뗄랽램,Barth뫍Bennett랢쿖뛾햽횮뫳쏀맺듦퓚평믵뇒듦솿횸쿲볛룱뫍평볛룱횸쿲릤뗄떥쿲틲맻맘쾵,듓뛸횧돖쏀맺뗄춨믵엲헍쫇평탨쟳틲쯘퓬돉뗄ꆣMaynard뫍Rijckeghem(1976)쳡돶쇋쫂뫳볬퇩탨쟳삭뚯탍춨믵엲헍뫍돉놾췆뚯탍춨믵엲헍뗄뇪ힼ,죧맻닆헾헾닟믲헟믵뇒헾닟쪹ퟜ탨쟳뫍춨믵엲헍쿂붵뛸쎻폐떼훂닺돶폫뻍튵쿂붵,퓲룃춨믵엲헍뿉틔놻죏뚨캪쫇탨쟳삭뚯탍춨믵엲헍;죧맻ퟜ탨쟳쿂붵떼훂닺돶뫍뻍튵쿂붵,쓇쎴헢훖춨믵엲헍뻍뿉틔놻죏뚨캪쫇돉놾췆뚯탍춨믵엲헍ꆣAndo뫍Palash(1976)춨맽듳탍볆솿쒣탍뫍ퟮ폅뿘훆벼쫵뛔뫪맛뺭볃뷸탐쒣쓢,쒣쓢뷡맻쿔쪾1974쓪평ퟮ훕탨쟳돥믷퓬돉뗄춨믵엲헍쮮욽샭싛짏캪%,ퟮ룟늻뎬맽10%ꆣ좻뛸춬웚춨믵엲헍뗄헦쪵쮮욽캪%,뻝듋ퟷ헟죏캪1974쓪룟춨믵엲헍훐폐뫜듳늿럖쫇평ퟮ훕탨쟳횮췢뗄틲쯘퓬돉뗄ꆣ죸뷰쳘(1998)퓚뾭뛷쮹쒣탍뿲볜쿂럖컶쇋돉놾췆뚯탍춨믵엲헍뫍탨쟳삭뚯탍춨믵엲헍쿂훷튪뫪맛뺭볃뇤솿뗄쳘헷,퓚돉놾췆뚯탍춨믵엲헍쿂뎧짌샻죳붫쿂붵,뛸퓚평믵뇒릩룸퓶볓쯹퓬돉뗄탨쟳삭뚯탍춨믵엲헍훐,뎧짌샻죳붫짏짽,헢뿉틔캪본뇰늻춬샠탍춨믵엲헍쳡릩닎뾼ꆣBatten(1981)죏캪돖탸뗄뎬뛮믵뇒릩룸쫇떼훂춨믵엲헍뗄ퟮ훕풭틲,늢쟒뷸튻늽쳡돶뿉틔춨맽볬퇩춨믵엲헍뫍헦쪵닺돶쟷쫆뇤뮯살에뛏쫇럱듦퓚돉놾췆뚯탍춨믵엲헍ꆣGordon뫍Hall(1985)샻폃떥랽돌볲뮯탎쪽맀볆쇋쏀맺뗄춨믵엲헍랽돌,믘맩뷡맻랢쿖1981훁1984쓪릤퓶뎤뷶뷶뛔볛룱듦퓚럇뎣캢죵쫀뷧뺭볃3ꆡ2010쓪뗚1웚ꆡꆤ130ꆤ
랶횾폂ꆡꆡ뗄췆뚯맘쾵ꆣ20쫀볍90쓪듺횮뫳,뺭볃톧볒뾪쪼룼뛠뗘퓚튻냣뻹뫢뿲볜쿂퇐뺿돉놾돥믷뛔춨믵엲헍뗄펰쿬,늢퓚뛔춨믵엲헍뗄뺭퇩퇐뺿훐춬쪱냼몬돉놾돥믷뫍탨쟳돥믷틲쯘,뇜쏢평폚틅슩뇤솿떼훂룟맀믲뗍맀쒳샠돥믷뛔춨믵엲헍뗄펰쿬ꆣ쯦ퟅ쏀맺뫍좫쟲뺭볃뷸죫뗍춨믵엲헍쪱웚,뛔돉놾췆뚯탍춨믵엲헍퇐뺿뗄훘뗣평헧뇰춨믵엲헍뗄샠탍뇤캪뫢솿돉놾뫍탨쟳틲쯘뛔춨믵엲헍릱쿗뗄쿠뛔듳킡,Granger틲맻볬퇩ꆢ킭헻뫍컳닮탞헽쒣탍뗈탂퇐뺿랽램놻듳솿닉폃ꆣMehra(1991)죏캪쿈잰뗄퇐뺿뚼쫇퓚볙짨볛룱뫍릤듦퓚좷뚨탔쟷쫆뗄잰쳡쿂뷸탐뗄,틲듋듦퓚듭컳쪶뇰솽헟맘쾵뗄뿉쓜ꆣ샻폃1959훁1981쓪뗄쫽뻝,ퟷ헟춨맽킭헻뫍컳닮탞헽랽돌랢쿖,쏀맺릤뫍볛룱횮볤뗄뎤웚맘쾵쫇듓뫳헟횸쿲잰헟,틲듋늻횧돖쏀맺듦퓚릤췆뚯탍춨믵엲헍뗄뷡싛ꆣ춬퇹믹폚킭헻뫍컳닮탞헽쒣탍,Darrat(1994)죏캪Mehra(1991)쒣탍훐쎻폐냼삨믵뇒ꆢ믣싊뫍샻싊뗈웤쯻펰쿬볛룱뫍릤뗄뇤솿,틲듋믘맩뷡맻뿉쓜쫇폐욫뗄ꆣ붫믵뇒ꆢ믣싊뫍샻싊볓죫Menra쒣탍뫳,Darrat랢쿖볛룱뫍릤횮볤늢늻듦퓚뎤웚컈뚨맘쾵,뎤웚살뾴펰쿬볛룱룼훘튪뗄틲쯘죔좻쫇믵뇒뫍믣싊,틲듋늻횧돖릤쿲볛룱뗄뒫떼ꆣGhali(1999)죏캪죧맻풤웚춨믵엲헍폫춨믵엲헍뗄샺쪷폐맘,쓇쎴퓚볛룱뫍릤횮볤붫뻟폐쮫쿲뗄틲맻맘쾵ꆣGhali샻폃킭헻뫍컳닮탞헽쒣탍뛔냼몬풤웚뗄럆샻웕쮹쟺쿟뷸탐볬퇩,춨맽뛔1959쓪1벾뛈훁1989쓪3벾뛈릤ꆢ볛룱ꆢ닺돶좱뿚뫍뷸뿚볛룱뗄퇐뺿랢쿖,릤뛔볛룱폐쏷쿔뗄췆뚯ퟷ폃ꆣSchmidt(2000)죏캪쿈잰맘폚릤뫍볛룱쮫뇟맘쾵퇐뺿뷡싛횮쯹틔듦퓚뷏뛠닮틬뗄풭틲퓚폚쒣탍쪶뇰늻떱,뛔냼몬릤ꆢ볛룱뗈7룶뇤솿뗄쿲솿뷸탐킭헻볬퇩,ퟷ헟랢쿖1960쓪2벾뛈떽1994쓪4벾뛈볛룱뫍릤횮볤듦퓚쮫쿲뗄틲맻맘쾵ꆣ맘폚믣싊뫍뷸뿚볛룱뇤뮯뛔맺쓚볛룱쮮욽뒫떼컊쳢뗄퇐뺿튲뛠닉폃ퟔ믘맩럖늼훍뫳쒣탍ꆢ쿲솿ퟔ믘맩뫍킭헻폫컳닮탞헽뗈볆솿랽램ꆣMcCarthy(1999)춨맽쿲솿ퟔ믘맩쒣탍퇐뺿쇋늿럖릤튵뮯맺볒믣싊뫍뷸뿚볛룱뛔맺쓚짺닺헟볛룱ꆢ쿻럑헟볛룱뗄펰쿬,뷡맻쿔쪾믣싊뫍뷸뿚볛룱뛔맺쓚볛룱뗄펰쿬쿠뛔폐쿞ꆣ맺쓚튲폐톧헟춨맽샠쯆뗄랽램뛔훐맺뗄믣싊뒫뗝쿖쿳뷸탐퇐뺿,쿪쾸뗄뷡싛볻늷폀쿩(2001)ꆢ뇏폱붭폫훬훓(2006)뫍쇵퇇뗈(2008)ꆣ떼훂춨믵엲헍싊짏짽뗄풭틲춨뎣쫇뇈뷏뢴퓓뗄,퓚춨믵엲헍싊짏짽뗄맽돌훐췹췹볈냼몬쇋돉놾췆뚯뗄틲쯘폖냼몬쇋탨쟳삭뚯뗄틲쯘ꆣ뻍헧뇰랽램뛸퇔,춨맽볬퇩뇤솿횮볤쿠맘탔살좷뚨춨믵엲헍탔훊뗄랽램쯤좻뇈뷏볲떥,떫쫇뗃떽뗄뷡싛춨뎣뇋듋횮볤듦퓚쎬뛜,쮵럾솦늻잿ꆣ틲듋,퓚맦랶뗄톧쫵퇐뺿훐,믹놾늻퓙쪹폃헢샠랽램ꆣ쿠뇈횮쫀뷧뺭볃3ꆡ2010쓪뗚1웚ꆡꆤ131ꆤ
ꆡꆡ돉놾췆뚯탍춨믵엲헍뗄몬틥ꆢ헧뇰뫍랴춨믵엲헍헾닟:튻룶컄쿗퇐뺿쿂,볆솿뺭볃톧랽램뇈뚨탔퇐뺿랽램뻟폐쏷쿔뗄폅쫆ꆣ볆솿뺭볃톧랽램뿉틔붫돉놾틲쯘뫍탨쟳틲쯘춬쪱쓉죫럖컶뿲볜,뗃떽뇈뷏컈붡뗄뷡싛ꆣ떫쫇볆솿뺭볃톧랽램뗄튻룶좱쿝쫇쯹뗃떽뗄뷡싛퓚뫜듳돌뛈짏틀삵폚퇹놾톡퓱쟸볤,헽죧뢥샯쾣(1992,훐틫놾)횸돶뗄ꆰ룹뻝뛔믹웚톡퓱뗄늻춬,릤쳡룟뿉틔뷢쫍캪튻룶릤ퟔ랢뗄췆뚯,믲헟뷢쫍캪뛔잰웚볛룱ퟜ쮮욽뗄뗷헻ꆱꆣ돽듋횮췢볆솿랽돌뗄뷡싛틀삵폚톡퓱뗄뇤솿,늢볙짨퓚퇹놾쟸볤춨믵엲헍뗄탔훊뇈뷏컈뚨,럱퓲뿉쓜펰쿬뷡싛뗄컈붡탔ꆣ쯄ꆡ훎샭돉놾췆뚯탍춨믵엲헍뗄쪵볹뫍헾닟톡퓱뛔춨믵엲헍돉틲뫍쳘헷뷸탐퇐뺿뗄ퟮ훕쒿뗄쫇쳡돶펦뛔늻춬샠탍춨믵엲헍뗄폐킧듫쪩ꆣ뛔폚탨쟳삭뚯탍춨믵엲헍,훎샭뗄쫖뛎퓚폚닉좡뷴쯵탔뫪맛헾닟ꆣ퓚쏦뛔돉놾돥믷쪱,뷴쯵뗄헾닟폐뿉쓜퓬돉폐킧릩룸늻ퟣ(Blinder,1987),듓뛸볓뻧뺭볃쫕쯵톹솦ꆣ춨맽뗚뛾뷚뗄퇐뺿뿉틔랢쿖,폐킧탨쟳퓚돉놾췆뚯탍춨믵엲헍뗄뒫떼맽돌훐랢믓훘튪ퟷ폃ꆣ틲듋떱뺭볃훐랢짺돉놾돥믷쪱,헾뢮췹췹쏦쇙솽쓑톡퓱,삩헅탔뗄헾닟컞틉믡볓뻧춨믵엲헍,뛸뷴쯵탔뗄헾닟폖춨뎣쫇틔쪧튵뫍뺭볃쮥췋캪듺볛ꆣ쓇쎴떱쏦쇙돉놾돥믷쪱믵뇒떱뻖펦룃닉좡퓵퇹뗄믵뇒헾닟?쫇닉좡쿠믺뻱퓱뗄늹뎥탔(accom2modating)삩헅헾닟틖훆쪧튵뮹쫇닉좡뷴쯵탔믵뇒헾닟뿘훆춨믵엲헍?맘폚헢튻컊쳢죔좻듦퓚헹틩,늢탎돉솽훖뛔솢뗄맛뗣ꆣ횧돖닉좡늹뎥탔헾닟뗄맛뗣죏캪,떱랢짺췢짺릩룸돥믷쪱,헾뢮펦떱춨맽삩헅탔뗄믵뇒믲헟닆헾헾닟뷸탐펦뛔ꆣ뾭뛷쮹뺭볃톧죏캪춨믵엲헍뫍쪧튵퓚뛌웚쓚듦퓚듋쿻뇋뎤뗄맘쾵,죧맻뷏킡뗄춨믵엲헍돥믷뿉틔떼훂뷏듳뗄뻍튵퓶뎤,믵뇒떱뻖펦룃퓶볓믵뇒릩룸틔펦뛔돉놾돥믷ꆣAndo뫍Palash(1976)춨맽뛔뫪맛뺭볃뷸탐쒣쓢죏캪,쏀맺헾뢮뛌퓝뗄뷴쯵탔헾닟쫂쪵짏췆룟쇋1974쓪뗄춨믵엲헍쮮욽ꆣퟷ헟뷸튻늽죏캪볈좻춨믵엲헍훷튪늻쫇평ퟜ탨쟳틲쯘퓬돉뗄,뷴쯵탔뗄뺭볃헾닟뻍횻쓜붵뗍ퟜ탨쟳뛸뛔틖훆춨믵엲헍늢쎻폐냯훺ꆣPerry(1975)춬퇹믹폚듳탍뗄볆솿쒣탍쒣쓢쇋1973쓪4벾뛈떽1975쓪1벾뛈웚볤,룸뚨췢짺튪쯘볛룱돥믷쳵볾쿂늻춬뗄믵뇒퓶뎤ꆢ샻싊뫍쮰쫕헾닟뛔쏀맺뺭볃뗄펰쿬ꆣ쒣쓢뷡맻쿔쪾퓚쪯폍볛룱돥믷쿂,죧맻믵뇒퓶뎤싊쓜릻쿠펦쳡룟살싺ퟣ믵뇒탨쟳,쓇쎴뺭볃퓶뎤뿉틔쿠펦쳡룟떫뛔붵뗍쪧튵뗄펰쿬폐쿞;샻싊쿂붵뛔뺭볃퓶뎤뫍붵뗍쪧튵뗄펰쿬뷏킡;뛸복쮰헾닟튲뇘탫퓚삩헅탔믵뇒헾닟엤뫏쿂닅쓜쫕떽샭쿫뗄킧맻ꆣGordon(1984)랢쿖퓚릩룸돥믷쿂,놣횤쪵볊GNP늻뇤뗄뇘튪쳵볾쫇뗷헻풭닄쇏짺닺늿쏅쫕죫럝뛮,놣횤쏻틥GNP뗄뇤뮯뎬맽쏻틥릤뗄뇤뮯ꆣ쫀뷧뺭볃3ꆡ2010쓪뗚1웚ꆡꆤ132ꆤ
랶횾폂ꆡꆡ믵뇒떱뻖춨맽늹뎥탔믵뇒릩룸뫍릤ퟔ평뢡뚯벴뿉쪵쿖짏쫶뇘튪쳵볾,럱퓲릩룸돥믷뗄췢늿탔붫믡떼훂쪵볊GNP뗍폚뻹뫢쮮욽ꆣFischer(1985)럖컶쇋릩룸돥믷떼훂뺭볃쮥췋뗄쳵볾,ퟷ헟랢쿖죧맻믵뇒릩룸놣돖늻뇤,뒿듢뗄릩룸돥믷늢늻뇘좻떼훂뺭볃쮥췋ꆣ쿠랴,죧맻믵뇒떱뻖캪틖훆춨믵엲헍쯹닉좡뗄뷴쯵믵뇒헾닟믲헟릤믡뛔쪵볊릤쿂붵뷸탐뗖훆랴떹믡떼훂헦쪵뺭볃쮥췋ꆣTurnovsky(1986)퓚볙뚨헾뢮뗄쒿뇪몯쫽쫇닺돶늨뚯ퟮ킡뮯뗄믹뒡횮짏볆쯣쇋릩룸돥믷쿂믵뇒헾닟뗄ퟮ폅랴펦몯쫽ꆣ믵뇒헾닟랴펳몯쫽좡뻶폚떱웚릩룸돥믷ꆢ쿈잰맘폚떱웚릩룸돥믷뗄풤닢틔벰뛔쿂튻웚릩룸돥믷뗄풤닢ꆣퟷ헟뷸튻늽랢쿖죧맻쏻틥릤쫇췪좫횸쫽뮯뗄,쓇쎴믵뇒헾닟뛔폚욽닺돶늨뚯쫇컞킧뗄,벴믵뇒헾닟컞탨뛔릩룸돥믷ퟷ쿬펦;떱쏻틥릤럇췪좫횸쫽뮯쪱,믵뇒헾닟펦닉좡뷴쯵뮹쫇삩헅탔뗷헻좡뻶폚뺭볃훐룷떯탔뗄듳킡ꆣ뛔쿠믺뻱퓱늹뎥탔헾닟뗄엺움훷튪살ퟔ죽룶랽쏦ꆣ쫗쿈,믹폚뛔돉놾췆뚯탍춨믵엲헍뒫떼믺훆뗄죏쪶,믵뇒뫍닆헾삩헅쫇쪹뗃돉놾돥믷퇝뇤캪돉놾췆뚯탍춨믵엲헍뗄뇘튪쳵볾횮튻,퓚돉놾돥믷쳵볾쿂,삩헅탔닆헾뫍믵뇒헾닟뿉쓜퓬돉춨믵엲헍짏짽ꆣBatten(1981)죏캪컞싛쫇릤뿘훆뮹쫇볛룱뿘훆,짵훁뛔튪쯘쫕죫뷸탐헷쮰뚼늻쓜뷢뻶춨믵엲헍컊쳢,횻폐놣돖믵뇒퓶뎤럻뫏뺭볃퓶뎤뗄뎤웚탨튪닅쓜듓룹놾짏뿋럾춨믵엲헍쿖쿳ꆣ웤듎,쯦ퟅ샭탔풤웚샭싛뗄랢햹,뺭볃톧볒헫뛔늹뎥탔믵뇒헾닟뫶싔쇋춨믵엲헍풤웚뗄컊쳢쳡돶엺움ꆣ퓚샭탔풤웚볙짨쿂늢늻듦퓚춨믵엲헍뫍쪧튵뗄뎤웚쳦듺맘쾵,틲듋뎤웚쓚춨맽삩헅탔믵뇒헾닟펦뛔릩룸돥믷횻쓜쫇췆뚯춨믵엲헍뷸튻늽짽룟ꆣBarro(1976)죏캪,떱랢짺쪯폍볛룱믲헟얩닺욷릩룸돥믷쪱컞싛믵뇒떱뻖죧뫎랴펦,ퟜ닺돶뚼믡쿂붵늢떼훂쿠펦뗄뺭볃뷡릹뗷헻,퓶볓믵뇒퓫틴횻쓜쫇퇓뎤뗷헻쪱볤늢쪹뗃뗷헻맽돌룼볓뢴퓓ꆣBlinder(1981)붫릩룸돥믷쿂풤웚믵뇒릩룸퓶볓쯹닺짺뗄뢱ퟷ폃쟸럖캪뎤웚뫍뛌웚솽룶랽쏦ꆣ뛌웚쓚,춨믵엲헍풤웚붫믡떼훂럆샻웕쮹쟺쿟쿲짏틆뚯,듓뛸쿷죵삩헅탔헾닟뗄킧맻;뎤웚쓚,삩헅탔믵뇒헾닟풤웚붫볓뻧릤뫍볛룱뗄쿲쿂룕탔,쪹뗃헾뢮룼볓쓑틔펦뛔캴살뗄릩룸돥믷ꆣBlinder뮹럖뇰퓚Lucas(1973)뫍Fischer(1977)릩룸몯쫽훐틽죫쪯폍볛룱돥믷,뾼달퓝쪱탔뫍폀뻃탔쪯폍볛룱돥믷쿂ퟮ폅뗄믵뇒헾닟랴펦ꆣ뺡맜뛔폚퓝쪱탔돥믷,늻춬뗄짺닺몯쫽뷡싛늻튻,떫쫇죧맻돥믷쫇폀뻃탔뗄,뷴쯵탔뗄믵뇒헾닟닅쫇ퟮ폅톡퓱ꆣ폫쿠믺뻱퓱늹뎥탔믵뇒헾닟늻춬뗄뗚죽샠맛뗣살ퟔ믵뇒헾닟맦퓲샭싛ꆣ쯦ퟅ믵뇒헾닟맦퓲퇐뺿뗄짮죫,춨믵엲헍쒿뇪훆죕틦쫜떽톧쫵뷧뫍헾닟뻶닟헟뗄훘쫓ꆣBer2nanke뫍Mishkin(1997)죏캪춨믵엲헍쒿뇪훆뗄쳘뗣뿉틔룅삨캪믵뇒떱뻖ꆰ탻늼캴살쫀뷧뺭볃3ꆡ2010쓪뗚1웚ꆡꆤ133ꆤ
ꆡꆡ돉놾췆뚯탍춨믵엲헍뗄몬틥ꆢ헧뇰뫍랴춨믵엲헍헾닟:튻룶컄쿗퇐뺿튻뛎쪱웚춨믵엲헍늨뚯뗄쒿뇪랶캧,늢쟒쏷좷쿲릫훚뇭쏷캬돖컈뚨뗄뗍춨믵엲헍쮮욽쫇믵뇒헾닟뗄쫗튪쒿뇪ꆱ(BernankeandMishkin,1997)ꆣAoki(2001)ꆢGoodfriend뫍King(2001)틔벰Woodford(2001)뗄샭싛퇐뺿뇭쏷,퓚늻냼몬놾믽샛뗄럢뇕뺭볃쒣탍훐,퇏룱뚤힡쿻럑헟볛룱뗄믵뇒헾닟쓜릻쪵쿖ퟜ쳥킧폃ퟮ듳뮯,풭틲퓚폚듋샠믵뇒헾닟뿉틔ퟮ킡뮯쿠뛔볛룱얤쟺;뛸퓚냼몬놾믽샛뗄잰쳡쿂,춨믵엲헍쒿뇪뚤힡뗄펦쫇짺닺헟볛룱횸쫽;퓚뾪럅뺭볃훐춨믵엲헍쒿뇪뚤힡뗄틠펦룃쫇짺닺헟볛룱횸쫽ꆣ떱쒣탍훐냼몬돉놾돥믷쪱,짏쫶뷡싛펦룃뷸탐쿠펦뗷헻ꆣ럢뇕뺭볃훐쏦쇙돉놾돥믷쪱,퇏룱뚤힡춨믵엲헍뗄믵뇒헾닟펦룃폐쯹럅쯉,쪵탐떯탔(flexible)쒿뇪훆(Svensson,1999ꆢ2000),듓뛸퓚튻뚨돌뛈짏뮺뫍평폚닺돶좱뿚늨뚯쯹퓬돉뗄뢣샻쯰쪧ꆣ퓚뾪럅뺭볃훐,Clarida뗈(2002)ꆢBenigno뫍Benigno(2002)튲죏캪펦뛔돉놾돥믷뗄ퟮ폅춨믵엲헍뚤힡헾닟쫇쪵탐떯탔짺닺볛룱쒿뇪훆ꆣ듋췢,Sutherland(2004)춨맽솽맺햳탔볛룱쒣탍랢쿖퓚돉놾돥믷쿂,ퟮ폅맺볊믵뇒헾닟킭뗷뿉틔춨맽솽맺룷ퟔ뛀솢횴탐떯탔춨믵엲헍쒿뇪뚤힡뛸쪵쿖ꆣ평폚춨믵엲헍쒿뇪뚤힡훆쪵쪩웰살쿠뛔뢴퓓,Sutherland뷸튻늽뇈뷏쇋컥룶듎폅떫쿠뛔볲떥뗄믵뇒헾닟맦퓲뗄쿠뛔폅쇓,냼삨믵뇒릩룸쒿뇪ꆢ퇏룱짺닺헟볛룱쒿뇪ꆢ퇏룱쿻럑헟볛룱쒿뇪ꆢ믣싊컈뚨쒿뇪뫍쏻틥닺돶쒿뇪ꆣ뇈뷏뷡맻쿔쪾,퓚헢컥룶듎폅맦퓲훐믵뇒릩룸쒿뇪뫍믣싊컈뚨쒿뇪ퟮ닮;떱돉놾돥믷뗄랽닮뷏킡쪱펦룃톡퓱퇏룱짺닺헟볛룱쒿뇪;떱돉놾돥믷뗄랽닮뒦폚훐뗈쮮욽쪱펦룃톡퓱퇏룱쿻럑헟볛룱쒿뇪;뛸떱돉놾돥믷뗄랽닮뷏듳쪱퓲펦룃톡퓱쏻틥닺돶쒿뇪훆ꆣ퓚쪵볹훐,춨믵엲헍쒿뇪늻뷶잿뗷믵뇒헾닟뗄춸쏷뛈뫍튻훂탔,뛸쟒뻟폐헾닟횴탐쪱뗄쇩믮탔ꆣ탭뛠뺭볃톧볒죏캪춨믵엲헍쒿뇪훆늻펦룃샭뷢캪뢥샯뗂싼쪽뗄만뚨믵뇒퓶뎤맦퓲,뛸펦놻샭뷢캪쿠뛔쇩믮뗄믵뇒헾닟뿲볜,샽죧King(1996)ꆢBernanke뫍Mishkin(1997)ꆣ춨믵엲헍쒿뇪훆쿂펦뛔릩룸돥믷뗄랽램냼삨붵뗍폫돉놾돥믷쏜쟐쿠맘뗄볛룱횸쫽퓚춨믵엲헍쒿뇪훐뗄좨훘ꆢ삩듳춨믵엲헍쒿뇪늨뚯뗄랶캧,짵훁퓚쏦쇙돉놾돥믷쪱횱뷓뗷헻뛌웚뗄춨믵엲헍뚤힡쒿뇪ꆣ쳘뇰횵뗃힢틢뗄쫇,뺡맜춨믵엲헍쒿뇪훆늢럇췪좫랴뛔퓚쏦쇙릩룸돥믷쪱닉좡쿠펦뗄삩헅탔헾닟,떫퓚닙ퟷ닣쏦짏쯼폫쿠믺뻱퓱뗄늹뎥탔삩헅헾닟듦퓚쿔훸쟸뇰ꆣ퓚샭탔풤웚쿂,쿠믺뻱퓱뗄믵뇒헾닟뿉쓜퓬돉춨믵엲헍뗄돖탸짏짽ꆣBernanke뫍Mishkin(1997)횸돶,퓚춨믵엲헍쒿뇪횮쿂믵뇒떱뻖춨맽훆뚨훐웚춨믵엲헍쒿뇪쿲릫훚뇭쏷,믵뇒떱뻖뷶쫇죝죌평릩룸돥믷횱뷓퓬돉뗄튻듎탔볛룱짏짽뫍퓝쪱탔춨믵엲헍쮮욽쳡룟,믵뇒떱뻖죔붫닉좡듫쪩놣횤캴살춨믵엲헍컈뚨퓚쒿뇪쮮욽,듓뛸폐훺폚릫훚쫷솢캴살춨믵엲헍싊뗄욽컈풤웚ꆣ춨맽짏컄뗄럖컶뿉틔랢쿖,횧돖춨맽늹뎥탔믵뇒헾닟틖훆돉놾돥믷뗄맛뗣죏캪,쫀뷧뺭볃3ꆡ2010쓪뗚1웚ꆡꆤ134ꆤ
랶횾폂ꆡꆡ떱랢짺돉놾돥믷쪱죧맻헾뢮늻닉좡삩헅탔믵뇒헾닟붫떼훂닺돶쿂붵뫍춨믵엲헍짏짽,헢훖맛뗣죏캪믵뇒릩룸뿉틔퓶볓닺돶뗄훷튪샭싛틀뻝쫇쫊펦탔풤웚럆샻웕쮹쟺쿟ꆣ평듋닺짺솽룶쿠맘컊쳢:뗚튻,쫇럱듦퓚늻틔닺돶쿂붵믲쪧튵퓶볓캪듺볛틖훆춨믵엲헍뗄쫖뛎?뗚뛾,럆샻웕쮹쟺쿟퓚뎤웚쓚쫇럱폐킧?맘폚뗚튻룶컊쳢,Barro(1976)죏캪떱랢짺쪯폍볛룱믲헟얩닺욷릩룸돥믷쪱컞싛믵뇒떱뻖죧뫎랴펦닺돶뚼믡쿂붵,틲듋닺돶쿂붵늻쓜돉캪톡퓱믵뇒헾닟뗄틀뻝ꆣ싼삥(2004,훐틫놾)ퟜ뷡19룶맺볒65듎랴춨믵엲헍뗄뺭퇩,랢쿖ꆰ퓚벸뫵쯹폐쟩뿶훐,붵뗍춨믵엲헍뚼틔퓝쪱복짙닺돶캪듺볛ꆭꆭ톸쯙뗄랴춨믵엲헍췹췹뇈뮺싽뗄랴춨믵엲헍컾짼싊킡ꆣꆱ헢뻍쫇쮵,폫쫊펦탔풤웚뗄럆샻웕쮹쟺쿟쯹뇭쏷뗄쿠랴,샤뚳벦쪽랽램뇈붥뷼쪽랽램뗄듺볛튪킡ꆣꆱ맘폚뗚뛾룶컊쳢,쯦ퟅLucas엺에뫍샭탔풤웚샭싛뗄랢햹,뺭볃톧볒웕뇩죏캪횻폐캴놻풤웚떽뗄믵뇒헾닟닅쓜퓚뛌웚떼훂닺돶랢짺뇤뮯ꆣ떱돉놾돥믷랢짺쪱,캴풤웚떽뗄늹뎥탔헾닟뷶퓚뛌웚쓚랢짺ퟷ폃,뎤웚삩헅탔뗄믵뇒헾닟횻쓜퓬돉춨믵엲헍싊뷸튻늽짏짽ꆣBlinder(1981)쳘뇰잿뗷쇋풤웚떽뗄믵뇒헾닟쯹퓬돉뗄뢺쏦펰쿬ꆣ춨믵엲헍쒿뇪훆쯤좻퓊탭튻뚨뗄쇩믮탔,떫믵뇒떱뻖펦닉좡듫쪩놣횤캴살춨믵엲헍컈뚨퓚쒿뇪쮮욽,듓뛸컈뚨릫훚뗄춨믵엲헍풤웚ꆣ돉놾췆뚯탍춨믵엲헍샭싛폐쏷좷뗄헾닟몬틥,돉놾돥믷쿂뷴쯵탔뗄믵뇒헾닟붫믡떼훂뺭볃훍헍ꆣ좻뛸릤튵뮯맺볒퓚20쫀볍70훁80쓪듺랴춨믵엲헍뗄쪵볹쯆뫵뇭쏷,떱랢짺돉놾돥믷쪱,삩헅탔믵뇒헾닟횻쓜릻퓚뛌웚쓚퓶볓릩룸뫍틖훆춨믵엲헍,뎤웚쓚늢늻쓜듯떽헾닟훆뚨헟뗄쒿뇪ꆣ틔쏀맺캪샽,쏦쇙20쫀볍60쓪듺횮뫳릤뫍춨믵엲헍뗄돖탸짏짽,쓡뿋쯉헾뢮퓸뺭뛔볛룱뫍릤쪵탐퓝쪱뗄맜훆듫쪩늢ퟮ훕틔쪧냜룦훕ꆣ퓚뗚튻듎쪯폍캣믺횮뫳뗄1974훁1975쓪돵,쏀맺헾뢮춨맽삩헅탔뗄헾닟펦뛔퇏훘뗄뺭볃쮥췋췾킲ꆣ헾닟킧맻쿔쪾닺돶퓚1975쓪뾪쪼듳럹뛈믘짽,춨믵엲헍싊튲퓚쿂붵,떫쪧튵싊뻓룟늻쿂,캴쓜붵훁쮥췋횮잰뗄쮮욽ꆣ좻뛸퓚1979쓪뗚뛾듎쪯폍캣믺횮뫳,쏀맺뛔뺭볃헾닟뷸탐쇋훘듳뗷헻,듓삩헅탔헾닟뛸쪵탐뷴쯵뗄믵뇒헾닟ꆣ뿋슳룱싼뫍냂늮쮹램뛻뗂(2006,훐틫놾)횸돶,ꆰ1979ꆫ1980쓪,듳뛠쫽릤튵맺뗄믵뇒퓶뎤쪵볊짏뚼쫜떽쇋쿞훆,틲캪헢킩맺볒쿫쿻돽쪯폍볛룱짏헇듸살뗄춨믵엲헍ꆭꆭ튻떩헢듎춨믵엲헍뗄짏짽볓죫떽춨믵엲헍뗄풤웚뫍릤뻶뚨뗄맽돌훐,뻍뫜쓑퓙쪹쯼붵쿂살ꆱꆣ뷴쯵헾닟컞틉뢶돶쇋돁훘듺볛,돉놾돥믷뫍뷴쯵탔믵뇒헾닟떼훂쫀뷧뺭볃쿝죫퇏훘뗄쿴쳵ꆣ쏀솪뒢퓚20쫀볍80쓪듺뗄랴춨믵엲헍뺭퇩뇭쏷,퓚뷴쯵뗄믵뇒릩룸헾닟쿂,쪯폍볛룱짏짽뗈돉놾돥믷늻믡떼훂춨믵엲헍랢짺,듓뛸캪횤쏷ퟜ탨쟳삩헅쫇돉놾돥믷떼훂돉놾췆뚯탍춨믵엲헍랢짺뗄뇘튪쳵볾쳡릩쇋폐솦뗄횤뻝ꆣ돽듋횮췢,쒿쫀뷧뺭볃3ꆡ2010쓪뗚1웚ꆡꆤ135ꆤ
ꆡꆡ돉놾췆뚯탍춨믵엲헍뗄몬틥ꆢ헧뇰뫍랴춨믵엲헍헾닟:튻룶컄쿗퇐뺿잰짐캴랢쿖춨맽삩헅탔믵뇒헾닟뷢뻶돖탸탔춨믵엲헍뗄돉릦낸샽ꆣ컥ퟜ뷡헽죧놾컄쯹랴뢴잿뗷뗄,죧맻붫춨믵엲헍뚨틥캪돖탸탔튻냣볛룱쮮욽짏헇,Mish2kin(1984)랢쿖톧쫵뷧퓚20쫀볍80쓪듺틑뺭탎돉틔쿂릲쪶:컞싛쫇돉놾췆뚯탍뮹쫇탨쟳삭뚯탍춨믵엲헍,룟춨믵엲헍싊ퟜ쫇폫삩헅탔뗄믵뇒헾닟쿠솪쾵,듓뛸훘짪쇋뢥샯뗂싼맘폚춨믵엲헍컞싛뫎쪱뫎뗘뚼쫇믵뇒쿖쿳뗄싛뛏ꆣBatten(1981)튲랢쿖듓20쫀볍80쓪듺틔살ꆰ돉놾췆뚯탍춨믵엲헍ꆱ뗄쳡램룼뛠뗄쫇돶쿖퓚뫪맛뺭볃움싛뫍탂컅놨뗀훐뛸늻쫇돶쿖퓚퇏뷷뗄톧쫵퇐뺿떱훐ꆣ폐킩뺭볃톧볒짵훁죏캪,뛔춨믵엲헍ퟷ돉놾췆뚯탍뫍탨쟳삭뚯탍쟸럖늢쎻폐첫뛠쪵볊틢틥ꆣ샽죧,뢥샯쾣(1992,훐틫놾)죏캪붫춨믵엲헍쟸럖캪탨쟳삭뚯탍뫍돉놾췆뚯탍쯤좻쎻폐맽쪱,떫쫇ꆰ떱듺춨믵엲헍샭싛뗄랢햹틑늻퇘폃헢훖쟸럖쇋ꆣ튻룶훘튪풭틲쫇,헢훖쟸럖뷶뷶쫇샭싛탔뗄,쎻폐죋뿉틔헒떽튻훖랽램뛔쪵볊랢짺뗄춨믵엲헍뷸탐럖샠,죋쏇뫜쓑뻶뚨릤뫍컯볛뗄짏짽쫇돉놾췆뚯뗄뮹쫇탨쟳삭뚯퓬돉뗄?쫔춼쳡돶뫍볬퇩쫇컯볛쿈쳡룟뮹쫇릤쿈짏헇헢룶컊쳢,뻍죧춬쫇컊쿈폐벦뮹쫇쿈폐떰튻퇹ꆣ룹뻝뛔믹웚톡퓱뗄늻춬,릤쳡룟뿉틔뷢쫍캪튻룶릤ퟔ랢뗄췆뚯,믲헟뷢쫍캪뛔잰웚볛룱ퟜ쮮욽뗄뗷헻ꆱꆣ뺡맜죧듋,뛔돉놾췆뚯탍춨믵엲헍뗄퇐뺿돉맻뷸탐ퟜ뷡죔좻폐훺폚컒쏇볓짮뛔춨믵엲헍탔훊ꆢ뒫떼믺훆뗄샭뷢,퓶잿랴춨믵엲헍헾닟뗄폐킧탔ꆣ돽쇋뇘탫잿뗷춨믵엲헍볈럇쿠뛔볛룱뇤뮯,튲럇볛룱쮮욽튻듎탔쳸풾,뛸쫇볛룱ퟜ쮮욽뗄돖탸짏짽맽돌횮췢,춨맽놾컄뗄퇐뺿컒쏇뮹뿉틔뗃떽틔쿂뷡싛ꆣ쫗쿈,뻍돉놾췆뚯탍춨믵엲헍뗄몬틥뫍뒫떼믺훆뛸퇔,슢뛏틲쯘(죧릤믡)퓬돉튪쯘볛룱돖탸짏짽뿉쓜떼훂돉놾췆뚯탍춨믵엲헍,튻듎탔튪쯘볛룱짏헇뷶쓜퓬돉쿠뛔볛룱뇤뮯뛸늻믡떼훂춨믵엲헍ꆣ퓚평돉놾돥믷틽랢뗄춨믵엲헍훐,돉놾췆뚯뫍탨쟳삭뚯틲쯘뮥쿠붻횯,뛸뫳헟뗄펰쿬뿉쓜쫇룼맘볼뗄ꆣ퓚릤믲헟돵벶닺욷볛룱돖탸짏헇쳵볾쿂,믵뇒떱뻖캪놣횤뻍튵뫍뺭볃컈뚨뛸퓶볓믵뇒릩룸쫇튪쯘볛룱돥믷틽랢돉놾췆뚯탍춨믵엲헍뗄뇘튪쳵볾ꆣ웤듎,퇐뺿뇭쏷짺닺벼쫵ꆢ쫐뎡뷡릹틔벰쿻럑헟욫뫃뗈틲쯘뻹뿉틔펰쿬짏쿂폎볛룱횮볤뗄뒫떼맘쾵ꆣ쫂뫳쫇럱듦퓚짏폎볛룱믲뷸뿚볛룱쿲쿂폎닺욷볛룱뗄뒫뗝벰웤잿죵좡뻶폚짏쫶틲쯘뗄ퟛ뫏펰쿬ꆣ춨믵엲헍춨뎣쫇뛠훖틲쯘릲춬ퟷ폃뗄뷡맻ꆣ뻍춨믵엲헍탔훊뗄본뇰랽램뛸퇔,쿖듺뺭볃톧믹놾뇷웺쇋퓧웚춨맽뇤솿횮볤뗄쿠맘탔헧뇰쫀뷧뺭볃3ꆡ2010쓪뗚1웚ꆡꆤ136ꆤ
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