훐맺닆헾돠ퟖ릹돉폫닆헾헾닟킧펦햪ꆡ튪:놾컄퓚닆헾돠ퟖ럖뷢뗄뒫춳솽좱뿚쒣탍믹뒡횮짏,붨솢닆헾돠ퟖ릹돉뗄죽좱뿚샭싛쒣탍,늢뻝듋뛔1992ꆪ2003쓪볤훐맺닆헾돠ퟖ뷸탐럖뷢,뷸뛸퓋폃쪵볊럖뷢뷡맻,붨솢훐맺뺭볃늨뚯뗄헾닟쿬펦몯쫽,쏨쫶뫍닻쫍훐맺닆헾횧돶헾닟뗄뺭볃컈뚨킧펦ꆣ맘볼듊:닆헾돠ퟖ릹돉;닆헾헾닟킧펦;뺭볃컈뚨킧펦;헾닟쿬펦몯쫽훐춼럖샠뫅:F81014ꆡꆡ컄쿗뇪쪶싫:Aꆡꆡ컄헂뇠뫅:10002176X(2005)0220050207튻ꆢ닆헾돠ퟖ럖뷢뗄죽좱뿚쒣탍틔G폫I럖뇰뇭쪾닆헾횧돶폫닆헾쫕죫,ퟷ캪닆헾횧돶폫닆헾쫕죫닮뛮뗄닆헾돠ퟖD,D=G-Iꆣ틀뻝닆헾횧돶쫇럱냼몬맺볒햮컱뗄뮹놾뢶쾢횧돶,닆헾돠ퟖ뗄춳볆뿚뺶쟸뇰캪ퟜ닆헾돠ퟖ폫풭쪼닆헾돠ퟖ(믲헟믹놾닆헾돠ퟖ)ꆣꋙ닆헾돠ퟖ춨뎣럖뷢캪훜웚탔닆헾돠ퟖ뫍뷡릹탔닆헾돠ퟖ,틔쳥쿖닆헾돠ퟖ뗄뺭볃훜웚탔훊ꆣ웤훐,뷡릹탔닆헾돠ퟖ뚨틥캪돤럖뻍튵돠ퟖ,벴퓚쿖탐닆헾횧돶헾닟뫍쮰쫕훆뛈쿂떱ퟜ쳥뺭볃뒦폚돤럖뻍튵ힴ첬쪱쯹랢짺뗄(뿉쓜)닆헾돠ퟖ,뛸훜웚탔닆헾돠ퟖ뗈폚닆헾돠ퟖ뿛돽뷡릹탔닆헾돠ퟖ뗄쪣폠,퓚뾭뛷쮹훷틥닆헾헾닟쒣쪽쿂뇭쿖돶쏷쿔뗄쓦뺭볃훜웚늨뚯쳘헷ꆣ틔G3폫3I럖뇰뇭쪾돤럖뻍튵뗄닆헾횧돶폫닆헾쫕죫,뷡릹탔닆헾돠ퟖ캪(G3-T3),뛸훜웚탔닆헾돠ퟖ뻍쫇[(G-I)-(G33-I)],듦퓚믡볆뫣뗈쪽(1):D=3[(G-I)-(G3-I)]+(G33-I)(1)훜웚탔닆헾돠ퟖ쫇평닆헾횧돶헾닟폫쮰쫕헾닟뗄뺭볃훜웚탔훊릲춬뻶뚨뗄,웤뛈솿횸뇪늢캴럖샫닆헾횧돶헾닟폫쮰쫕헾닟뛔닆헾돠ퟖ탎돉뗄뛀솢ퟷ폃,컞램돤럖쿔쪾닆헾헾닟뗄뺭볃컈뚨킧펦ꆣꋚ틲듋,폐뇘튪퓚닆헾돠ퟖ럖뷢뗄뒫춳솽좱뿚쒣탍믹뒡짏,붫훜웚탔닆헾돠ퟖ럖뷢캪폫닆헾횧돶헾닟쿠맘뗄횧돶탔닆헾돠ퟖ뫍폫쮰쫕헾닟쿠맘뗄쫕죫탔닆헾돠ퟖ,뷸뛸춨맽뛔횧돶탔닆헾돠ퟖ폫쫕죫탔닆헾돠ퟖ뗄럖뇰맛달,뷸튻늽뷒쪾닆헾돠ퟖ뗄뺭볃훜웚탔훊뫍닆헾헾닟뗄뺭볃컈뚨킧펦ꆣ뛔쪽(1)훘탂ퟩ뫏,뗃떽닆헾돠ퟖ럖뷢뗄죽좱뿚쒣탍,죧쪽(2)쯹쪾:D=(G-G3)+3(I-I)+(G33-I)(2)헢퇹,닆헾돠ퟖD냼삨(G3-G3)ꆢ(I-I)폫(G33-I)죽늿럖,럖뇰뚨틥캪횧돶탔닆헾돠ퟖGDꆢ쫕죫탔닆헾돠ퟖID틔벰뷡릹탔닆헾돠ퟖSD;듦퓚D=GD+ID+SD,뛸GD=G-G3,ID=3I-I,SD=
훐맺닆헾돠ퟖ릹돉폫닆헾헾닟킧펦51G33-Iꆣ내횧돶탔닆헾돠ퟖꆢ쫕죫탔닆헾돠ퟖ틔벰뷡릹탔닆헾돠ퟖ럖뷢ퟜ닆헾돠ퟖ,뻟쳥쯣램돌탲죧쿂:(1)틀뻝쪵볊맺쏱쫕죫Y뗄쪱볤쟷쫆,볆쯣잱퓚맺쏱쫕죫Y3;(2)럖뇰쒣쓢쪵볊닆헾횧돶G폫쪵볊맺쏱쫕죫Yꆢ쪵볊닆헾쫕죫I폫쪵볊맺쏱쫕죫Y뗄뿧쪱몯쫽맘쾵,붨솢닆헾횧돶몯쫽G=G(Y)폫닆헾쫕죫몯쫽I=I(Y);(3)샻폃닆헾횧돶몯쫽폫닆헾쫕죫몯쫽,볆쯣쟷쫆닆헾횧돶G3폫쟷쫆닆헾쫕죫3I,럖뇰듺뇭돤럖뻍튵닆헾횧돶폫돤럖뻍튵닆헾쫕죫3,듦퓚G3=G(Y3),I=I(Y3);(4)ퟜ닆헾돠ퟖ(G-I)럖뷢캪횧돶탔닆헾돠ퟖ(G-G3)ꆢ쫕죫탔닆헾돠ퟖ3(I-I)폫뷡릹탔닆헾돠ퟖ3(G3-I)죽늿럖ꆣ뛾ꆢ1992ꆪ2003쓪볤훐맺닆헾돠ퟖ뗄럖뷢폫릹돉(튻)훐맺잱퓚GDP퓶뎤쪹폃뢽뇭1뗄내1991쓪볛룱뫋쯣뗄헦쪵GDP쪱볤탲쇐쫽뻝YR,틔OLS랽램쓢뫏웤1991ꆪ2003쓪볤횸쫽퓶뎤쪱볤쟷쫆,죧쪽(3)쯹쪾ꆣ웤훐,t캪쪱볤뇤솿,퓚1991쓪t=1,퓚2003쓪t=13ꆣLOG(YR)=91970936975+0108910117623ꇁt(3)(42411268)(30108247)R2=01987991,adjR2=01986899,F=90419549,DW=01313558ꆣ틀뻝쪽(3),볆쯣ퟷ캪쪱볤쟷쫆뗄헦쪵잱퓚GDP쪱볤탲쇐쫽뻝YR3,뷸뛸샻폃뢽뇭1뗄GDP욽복횸쫽쪱볤탲쇐P,볆쯣쏻틥잱퓚GDP쪱볤탲쇐쫽뻝YN3,폐맘볆쯣뷡맻볻뇭1ꆣ뇭1훐맺잱퓚GDPꆢ쟷쫆닆헾횧돶폫쟷쫆닆헾쫕죫(틚풪)잱퓚GDP쟷쫆닆헾횧돶쟷쫆닆헾쫕죫쓪뛈1991쓪볛룱떱쓪볛룱1991쓪볛룱떱쓪볛룱1991쓪볛룱떱쓪볛룱YR3YN3GR3GN3IR3IN31991233891402338914031651463165146ꆪꆪ19922556910927579183359412638761923310153357018719932795119034541130408111550431253325147410914119943055617745249161463410068621193461190512615119953340414055982153526117388181153731107625219119963651714064828169597415010606142414611173601521997399201507423141678318212137121472213284481891998436401747619315977021771344814854771139562168199947707167814351678746121149291536430176109771122000521531618986710699301991711213276061031310611220015701318799404112112761271966012690291001574211320026232710710844316128031782227714510729123186671922003681351411207721614538122257691541274010322582117훐맺뺭볃퓚뺭샺1981ꆪ1990쓪늨마ꆪ늨마뺭볃톭뮷뫳,듓1991쓪뾪쪼삩헅,퓚1994쓪듯떽GDP퓶뎤싊룟럥횵,볌뛸퓚1996쓪듯떽GDP쿠뛔쮮욽룟럥횵뫳뷸죫쫕쯵뷗뛎ꆣ좻뛸,뺭볃톭뮷뗄쫕쯵쟷쿲늢캴훕횹,퓚퇇훞뷰죚캣믺돥믷쿂듓1998쓪웰돊쿖춨믵뷴쯵첬쫆ꆣퟜ쳥뺭볃뺰웸쯤좻듓1999쓪떽2000쓪폐쯹믘짽,떫쫇퓚2001쓪뷸튻늽쮥실ꆣ훐맺뺭볃퓶뎤퓚2002쓪훰벾볓쯙,훘탂뷸죫삩헅뷗뛎,뛸늨마쓪뛈2001쓪릹돉놾듎뺭볃훜웚뗄웰뗣ꆣ(뛾)훐맺쟷쫆닆헾횧돶폫쟷쫆닆헾쫕죫쪹폃뢽뇭2뗄헦쪵닆헾횧돶쪱볤탲쇐쫽뻝GR폫헦쪵GDP쪱볤탲쇐쫽뻝YR,틔OLS랽램쓢뫏1991ꆪ2003쓪볤뛾헟릲쪱몯쫽맘쾵뛸좡뗃뛔쫽쿟탔뗄닆헾횧돶몯쫽,죧쪽(4)쯹쪾ꆣ
52닆뺭컊쳢퇐뺿ꆡꆡ2005쓪뗚2웚ꆡꆡퟜ뗚255웚LOG(GR)=-61283510141+1142579625ꇁLOG(YR)(4)(-41837561)(11163551)R2=01924856,adjR2=01918024,F=13513852,DW=01312236ꆣ샻폃뇭1뗄헦쪵잱퓚GDP쪱볤탲쇐YR3,평쪽4볆쯣헦쪵쟷쫆닆헾횧돶쪱볤탲쇐쫽뻝GR3,뷸뛸샻폃뢽뇭1뗄GDP욽복횸쫽쪱볤탲쇐P,볆쯣쏻틥쟷쫆닆헾횧돶쪱볤탲쇐GN3,폐맘볆쯣뷡맻볻뇭1ꆣ뢽뇭2뗄1991ꆪ2003쓪볤쪵볊ퟛ뫏쮰싊쪱볤탲쇐쫽뻝TR,뻟폐냼몬쪱볤쟷쫆뗄튻뷗ퟔ믘맩뷡릹,죧쪽5쯹쪾ꆣTR=01003196105711ꇁt+018448236445ꇁTR(-1)(5)(61685526)(29109666)R2=01972546,adjR2=01969800,DW=11664667ꆣ평쪽5풤닢쟷쫆ퟛ뫏쮰싊쪱볤탲쇐쫽뻝TR3,죧뇭2쯹쪾ꆣ쟷쫆ퟛ뫏쮰싊돋틔춬웚쏻틥잱퓚GDP뗃떽쏻틥쟷쫆닆헾쫕죫IN3,IN3=TR3ꇁYN3,뷸뛸샻폃뢽뇭1뗄GDP욽복횸쫽쪱볤탲쇐P,볆쯣헦쪵쟷쫆닆헾쫕죫쪱볤탲쇐IR3,폐맘볆쯣뷡맻볻뇭2ꆣ뇭2훐맺쟷쫆ퟛ뫏쮰싊쓪뛈1992쓪1993쓪1994쓪1995쓪1996쓪1997쓪TR3011295011190011133011117011135011183쓪뛈1998쓪1999쓪2000쓪2001쓪2002쓪2003쓪TR3011255011348011458011584011721011870(죽)훐맺닆헾돠ퟖ뗄뻸뛔릹돉폫쿠뛔릹돉믹폚뢽뇭2뗄쪵볊닆헾횧돶횸뇪폫쪵볊닆헾쫕죫횸뇪틔벰뇭1뗄쟷쫆닆헾횧돶횸뇪폫쟷쫆닆헾쫕죫횸뇪,내죽좱뿚쒣탍럖뷢1992ꆪ2003쓪볤훐맺닆헾돠ퟖ,웤뻸뛔릹돉뫍쿠뛔릹돉죧뇭3뫍뇭4쯹쪾ꆣ뇭3훐맺닆헾돠ퟖ뻸뛔릹돉(틚풪)횧돶탔닆헾돠ퟖ쫕죫탔닆헾돠ퟖ뷡릹탔닆헾돠ퟖ쓪뛈1991쓪볛룱떱쓪볛룱1991쓪볛룱떱쓪볛룱1991쓪볛룱떱쓪볛룱GDRGDNIDRIDNSDRSDN199228117030318581112871502831733061041993-52138-64173-193184-2391547551699331831994-385106-570121-61185-91159117211017351691995-663120-1111147613910171153016625651231996-740107-1313184-26174-47147182813832451901997-550170-985128-113104-202125206115036881321998-170133-297138-179143-31312722251643885181199998181168167-273156-466196231514539521412000205144354100-167178-2891112324196400611920017161971250105-369132-64319122471273918113200213441222338183-135148-2351722074155360915320031009166178916650217189110717981193187136
훐맺닆헾돠ퟖ릹돉폫닆헾헾닟킧펦53뇭4훐맺닆헾돠ퟖ쿠뛔릹돉쓪뛈횧돶탔닆헾돠ퟖ뇈샽쫕죫탔닆헾돠ퟖ뇈샽뷡릹탔닆헾돠ퟖ뇈샽GD/DID/DSD/D19920143570112550143881993-011028-0138051148331994-015310-0108531161631995-0175890100731175161996-016971-0102521172231997-013940-0108091147491998-010908-0109571118651999010462-0112781108162000010870-0107100198412001012763-0114230186602002014094-0104130163192003013050011519015432훐맺뺭볃쿖듺뮯뇘좻냩쯦ퟅ릫릲럾컱탨쟳뫍헾뢮맜샭횰쓜뗄삩듳,1992ꆪ2003쓪볤헦쪵쟷쫆닆헾횧돶GR3틲뛸뻟폐뷏럡뢻뗄맺쏱쫕죫떯탔ꆣ쯦ퟅ1994쓪틔살뗄쮰쫕훆뛈룄룯틔벰1998쓪틔살쮰쫕헷맜잿뮯,쟷쫆ퟛ뫏쮰싊TR3듓1994쓪웰컈늽짏짽,퓚쫐뎡뮯쳥훆룄룯맽돌훐쮰쫕헷쫕헽퓚늹뎥틲럅웺맺폐웳튵쯹폐좨믲헟횱뷓뺭펪좨뛸즥쪧뗄헾뢮쫕죫,캪돖탸퓶뎤뗄릫릲횧돶훰늽붨솢웰뿉뾿뗄쫕죫살풴ꆣ1992ꆪ2003쓪볤뷡릹탔닆헾돠ퟖ뗄샺쪱맬벣캪떹U탍쟺쿟,웤훐,헦쪵뷡릹탔닆헾돠ퟖSDR폫쏻틥뷡릹탔닆헾돠ퟖSDNퟜ뛮퓚2000쓪듯떽ퟮ듳횵,뛸뷡릹탔닆헾돠ퟖ뇈샽SD/D퓚1995쓪듯떽ퟮ듳횵,횮뫳틑뺭돖탸뛠쓪쿂붵ꆣ횧돶탔닆헾돠ퟖ퓚1993ꆪ1997쓪볤캪뢺횵,늢쟒뻸뛔쫽뛮듳훂돊훰쓪삩듳쟷쫆(1997쓪뻸뛔쫽뛮폐쯹복킡),폫1996쓪틔잰쪵쪩뗄랴춨믵엲헍뷴쯵탔닆헾헾닟횱뷓쿠맘ꆣ듓1998쓪쿂냫쓪웰,훐맺뾪쪼쪵쪩틔믽벫닆헾헾닟캪훷쳥뗄삩듳맺쓚탨쟳헾닟듫쪩,솬탸퓶볓뎤웚붨짨맺햮랢탐뛮,듓뛸횧돶탔닆헾돠ퟖ훰쓪듳럹뛈퓶볓,듓1999쓪웰뇤캪헽횵,2002쓪듯떽ퟮ듳;쯦ퟅ2003쓪믽벫닆헾헾닟삩헅솦뛈뗄복킡,횧돶탔닆헾돠ퟖ튲쿠펦쯵킡ꆣ헦쪵횧돶탔닆헾돠ퟖGDRꆢ쏻틥횧돶탔닆헾돠ퟖGDN틔벰횧돶탔닆헾돠ퟖ햼닆헾돠ퟖퟜ뛮뇈샽GD/D,퓚1992ꆪ2002쓪볤뗄샺쪱맬벣뻹캪U탍쟺쿟,웤ퟮ킡횵뚥뗣퓚1996쓪뢽뷼,폐쏷쿔뗄쓦뺭볃훜웚퓋뚯탔훊ꆣ평폚1992ꆪ2003쓪볤쪵볊ퟛ뫏쮰싊TR뷓뷼쟷쫆ퟛ뫏쮰싊TR3,웤샺쪱맬벣캪U탍쟺쿟,쫕죫탔닆헾돠ퟖퟜ쳥짏쳥쿖맺쏱쫕죫늨뚯탔훊,듳쳥짏뺭샺평쫕죫탔닆헾펯폠훰붥쯵킡뮯캪쫕죫탔닆헾돠ퟖ늢쟒쫕죫탔닆헾돠ퟖ맦쒣늻뛏삩듳뗄퇝뮯맽돌ꆣ늻맽,쫕죫탔닆헾돠ퟖ뗄뻸뛔맦쒣폫쿠뛔뇈샽뷏킡,쳘뇰쫇퓚1995ꆪ1997쓪뗄뺭볃쫕쯵뷗뛎,틔1991쓪볛룱뫋쯣뗄헦쪵쫕죫탔닆헾돠ퟖIDR뻹풶풶킡폚헦쪵횧돶탔닆헾돠ퟖ뫍헦쪵뷡릹탔닆헾돠ퟖꆣ평폚떱웚쮰쫕뗷헻붫춨맽맺볒폠뛮뿧웚틆춾뺶뛸훆풼뫳웚닆헾횧돶,늻듦퓚퓚복짙쮰쫕쫕죫뗄춬쪱놣돖닆헾횧돶뗄쿖쪵뿉쓜탔ꆣ늻뷶복쮰헾닟뗄ퟮ훕킧펦뿉쓜쫇뷴쯵탔뗄,뛸쟒뛌웚뗄쮰쫕복쏢듫쪩폫퓶볓쮰쫕쫕죫뗄뎤웚쒿뇪쫇쿠캥놳뗄,붫웆뮵쮰쫕훆뛈뗄컈뚨탔뫍뿉풤볻탔ꆣ춨믵뷴쯵쪱웚,훐맺믽벫닆헾헾닟볦맋뛌웚헾닟쒿뇪폫뎤웚헾닟킧펦,닉좡춬쪱퓶볓닆헾횧돶폫닆헾쫕죫랽쪽,캬뮤믽벫닆헾헾닟뗄뿉돖탸탔ꆣ죽ꆢ1992ꆪ2003쓪볤훐맺닆헾헾닟뗄뺭볃컈뚨킧펦틔(YR-YR3)/YR3뇭쪾GDP좱뿚,쿠펦붨솢횧돶탔닆헾돠ퟖ좱뿚횸뇪GDR/YR3폫쫕죫탔닆헾돠ퟖ좱뿚횸뇪IDR/YR3,럖뇰뛈솿훐맺맺쏱쫕죫ꆢ닆헾횧돶헾닟ꆢ쮰쫕헾닟뗄훜웚늨뚯돉럖,죧뇭5쯹쪾ꆣ뇭6캪1992ꆪ2003쓪볤횧돶탔닆헾돠ퟖ좱뿚GDR/YR3ꆢ쫕죫탔닆헾돠ퟖ좱뿚IDR/YR3폫잰웚ꆢ떱웚틔벰뫳웚GDP좱뿚뗄쿠맘쾵쫽뻘헳ꆣ
54닆뺭컊쳢퇐뺿ꆡꆡ2005쓪뗚2웚ꆡꆡퟜ뗚255웚뇭5훐맺GDP좱뿚폫닆헾돠ퟖ좱뿚쓪뛈GDP좱뿚횧돶탔닆헾돠ퟖ좱뿚쫕죫탔닆헾돠ퟖ좱뿚(YR-YR3)/YR3GDR/YR3IDR/YR31992-0103410101100100321993010027-010019-0100691994010334-010126-0100201995010446-0101990100021996010471-010203-0100071997010426-010138-0100281998010282-010039-0100411999010078010021-0100572000-010044010039-0100322001-010210010126-0100652002-010302010216-0100222003-010321010148010074죧뇭6쯹쪾,횧돶탔닆헾돠ퟖ좱뿚폫잰웚GDP좱뿚쿠맘탔캢죵,폫떱웚틔벰뫳웚GDP좱뿚좴룟뛈뢺쿠맘,좻뛸,쫕죫탔닆헾돠ퟖ좱뿚폫잰웚ꆢ떱웚틔벰뫳웚GDP좱뿚뻹캪헽쿠맘,쟒쿠맘탔뻹뷏캪캢죵ꆣ폫닆헾횧돶헾닟쿠뇈,쮰쫕헾닟좱랦믽벫뗄훜웚닙ퟷ쒣쪽ꆣꋙ뇭6훐맺GDP좱뿚폫닆헾돠ퟖ좱뿚쿠맘탔붻닦쿠맘쾵쫽[(YR-YR3)/YR3](-1)(YR-YR3)/YR3[(YR-YR3)/YR3](+1)GDR/YR3-01642794-01973602-01922880IDR/YR3014602130156025501440706틔횧돶탔닆헾돠ퟖ좱뿚GDR/YR3듺뇭훐맺닆헾헾닟뗄훜웚닙ퟷ돉럖,쪹폃OLS랽램퓚1992ꆪ2003쓪볤쓢뫏GDP좱뿚뛔횧돶탔닆헾돠ퟖ좱뿚GDR/YR3뗄믘맩랽돌,붨솢샠쯆쪥슷틗쮹랽돌(St1Louisequation)뗄훐맺뺭볃늨뚯뛔닆헾헾닟뗄쿬펦몯쫽ꋚꆣ(YR-YR3)/YR3=01007045537459-11521000043ꇁ(GDR/YR3)(6)ꆡ(51044052)(-81573148)-016949852451ꇁ[(GDR/YR3)(-1)]ꆡ(-31807366)R2=01981577,adjR2=01976971,F=21311201,DW=21054584ꆣ믘맩랽돌쪽(6)뇭쏷,GDP좱뿚뛔횧돶탔닆헾돠ퟖ좱뿚뗄랴펦맽돌쯦쪱볤쮥복,떱웚폫잰웚횧돶탔닆헾돠ퟖ좱뿚뗄믘맩쾵쫽뻹캪뢺횵ꆣ헢퇹,1992쓪틔살훐맺닆헾헾닟쯆뫵쫇랴뺭볃컈뚨탔훊뗄:평폚뻟폐뢺횵뗄닆헾횧돶뺲첬돋쫽폫뚯첬돋쫽,퓚뺭볃쿴쳵쪱웚쪵탐삩헅탔닆헾횧돶헾닟,붫뷸튻늽삩듳ꋙ샽죧,평폚욽뫢풤쯣돋쫽믺훆,닆헾횧돶폫닆헾쫕죫뗄뗈럹퓶볓믲헟복짙쫇뻟폐탨쟳삩헅믲헟탨쟳뷴쯵킧펦뗄,좻뛸퓚훜웚탔닆헾돠ퟖ횸뇪좴쎻폐랴펳ꆣꋚ뇪ힼ쪥슷틗쮹랽돌쫇닺돶뇤뮯뛔믵뇒릩펦뇤뮯뗄믘맩랽돌,폃틔볬퇩믵뇒헾닟뗄뺭볃컈뚨킧펦ꆣ쪹폃OLS랽램퓚1992ꆪ2003쓪볤쓢뫏훐맺쪥슷틗쮹랽돌,믘맩뷡맻죧쪽a1쯹쪾ꆣ(YR-YR3)/YR3=010824010804+0128404487423DLOG(M1R)(al)ꆡ(81256868)(31870824)-0118754093763DLOG(M1R(-1))-01011098984983tꆡ(-31140191)(-12182975)R2=01970024,adjR2=01955037,F=64172098,DW=21408039ꆣ웤훐,틔M1믵뇒릩펦뗄쓪뻹폠뛮뛈솿쓪뛈M1믵뇒릩펦,쪹폃GDP욽복횸쫽쯵복쏻틥M1믵뇒릩펦뛸볆쯣내1991쓪볛룱뫋쯣뗄쪵볊M1믵뇒릩펦횸뇪M1R,ퟮ훕틔쪵볊M1믵뇒릩펦뗄ퟔ좻뛔쫽닮럖DLOG(M1R)듺뇭훐맺믵뇒헾닟뗄랴훜웚룉풤돉럖ꆣ뛔폚쪽a1믘맩쾵쫽뗄뺭볃톧몬틥뷢쫍뿉틔닎헕쪽6ꆣ
훐맺닆헾돠ퟖ릹돉폫닆헾헾닟킧펦55뢺쿲GDP좱뿚,뛱뮯뺭볃쿴쳵ힴ첬ꆣ늻맽,춨맽쟸뇰쪵볊뺭볃늨뚯뗄샺쪱맬벣yt폫(컞닆헾헾닟룉풤뗄)ퟔ좻뺭볃늨뚯뗄샺쪱맬벣ytꇤ,춼1쓜릻쮵쏷1992쓪틔살훐맺닆헾헾닟뻟폐헽횵뗄닆헾횧돶돋쫽틔벰헽뎣뗄뺭볃컈뚨킧펦ꆣ죧춼1쯹쪾,퓚컞닆헾헾닟룉풤뗄ퟔ좻ힴ첬쿂,훐맺뺭볃늨뚯붫퇘탩쓢맬벣yꇤ뿧쪱퓋뚯ꆣ틔닆헾횧돶g듺뇭t뗄닆헾헾닟쫇랴훜웚닙ퟷ뗄,닆헾횧돶뗄샺쪱맬벣gt폫ퟔ좻뺭볃늨뚯뗄샺쪱맬벣ytꇤ랴쿠퓋뚯ꆣ퓚랴훜웚닆헾헾닟뗄믽벫룉풤쿂,쪵볊GDP늨뚯퇘뿉맛달맬벣yt뿧쪱퓋뚯,쿠뛔폚ퟔ좻뺭볃늨뚯ힴ첬ytꇤ쫕솲뛸뮺뫍늨뚯ꆣ쪽(6)뗄뢺횵믘맩쾵쫽뷶쳥쿖뿉맛달뗄뢺쿲솿aa폫헽쿲솿cc쿠맘맘쾵,뛸닆헾헾닟돋쫽펦룃평늻뿉맛달뗄헽쿲솿bb폫헽쿲솿cc뇈횵(뛸늻쫇쪽(6)믘맩쾵쫽)뚨틥ꆣ퓚벫뛋쟩탎쿂,볙죧닆헾헾닟쫇돤럖폐킧뗄듓뛸췪좫쿻돽ퟔ좻뺭볃늨뚯,벴쪹닆헾헾닟돋쫽늻뇤,뢺쿲솿aa틔벰쪽(6)뗄뢺횵믘맩쾵쫽튲붫쟷폚0,뛸쪽(6)좴틀뻝뢺쿲솿aa폫헽쿲솿cc뗄쿠맘맘쾵,붫룸돶쪵볊GDP좱뿚뛔닆헾헾닟컞랴펦뗄탩믃볆솿뷡맻ꆣ틲듋,믘맩랽돌(6)폫훐맺닆헾헾닟뗄뺭볃컈뚨쒣쪽쫇튻훂뗄,쿔훸뛸쟒뢺횵뗄횧돶탔닆헾돠ퟖ좱뿚믘맩쾵쫽쯤좻컞램뚨틥횧돶탔닆헾돠ퟖ좱뿚뗄뺲첬돋쫽폫뚯첬돋쫽,떫쫇쓜릻횤쪵닆헾횧돶헾닟뗄랴훜웚닙ퟷ탔훊:늻뷶뢺횵뗄떱웚횧돶탔닆헾돠ퟖ좱뿚믘맩쾵쫽쓜릻쿔쪾닆헾횧돶헾닟쫇쓦뛔ퟔ좻뺭볃늨뚯뛸랴훜웚닙ퟷ뗄,뛸쟒뢺횵뗄잰웚횧돶탔닆헾돠ퟖ좱뿚믘맩쾵쫽쓜릻쿔쪾닆헾횧돶헾닟뗄랴훜웚닙ퟷ쫇쫊뛈뎬잰뗄ꆣ캪춬쪱쏨쫶훐맺뺭볃늨뚯폫닆헾헾닟틔벰믵뇒헾닟뗄뮥뚯맽돌,삩햹쪽(6),쪹폃OLS랽램퓚1992ꆪ2003쓪볤쓢뫏GDP좱뿚뛔횧돶탔닆헾돠ퟖ좱뿚GDR/YR3틔벰헦쪵M1믵뇒릩펦쓪뻹폠뛮ퟔ좻뛔쫽닮럖DLOG(M1R)뗄믘맩랽돌,죧쪽7쯹쪾ꆣ(YR-YR3)/YR3=-11733507411ꇁ(GDR/YR3)-016611730662ꇁ[(GDR/YR3)(-1)]ꆡ(-81084493)(-31079907)(7)+010000002658804473ꇁM1Rꆡ(41051757)R2=01974767,adjR2=01968459,DW=11882268ꆣ듋쪱,횧돶탔닆헾돠ퟖ좱뿚뗄믘맩쾵쫽죔좻쫇뢺횵,M1믵뇒릩펦뗄믘맩쾵쫽캪헽횵ꆣ죴떥뒿틀뻝쪽(7)움맀훐맺믵뇒헾닟뗄뺭볃컈뚨킧펦,헽횵뗄M1믵뇒릩펦믘맩쾵쫽늻뷶늻쓜뚨틥맺쏱쫕죫뛔믵뇒릩펦뗄춬쿲뇟볊랴펦,뛸쟒쿔쪾훐맺믵뇒헾닟믲헟뻟폐쫊펦ퟔ좻뺭볃늨뚯뗄놻뚯뗷헻쟣쿲,믲헟릹돉떼훂뫍캬돖쪵볊뺭볃늨뚯뗄믹놾헾닟틲쯘ꆣ폫쪽(6)쿠뇈,떱웚횧돶탔닆헾돠ퟖ좱뿚뗄뷢쫍쓜솦쳡룟,뛸잰웚횧돶탔닆헾돠ퟖ좱뿚뗄뷢쫍쓜솦붵뗍ꆣ퓚춬쪱냼죝믵뇒헾닟킧펦쪱,훐맺닆헾헾닟뗄뺭볃컈뚨킧펦폐쯹퓶잿,좻뛸웤랴훜웚닙ퟷ뗄뎬잰룉풤쓜솦복죵ꆣꋙ뢽슼:쫽뻝폫횸뇪놾컄믹뒡춳볆쇏살풴폚ꆶ훐맺춳볆햪튪(2004)ꆷꆣ훐맺춳볆쳥쾵랢늼내떱쓪볛룱뫋쯣뗄쏻틥GDP쫽뻝뫍틔1978쓪캪믹웚뗄헦쪵GDP횸쫽,뢽뇭1볆쯣틔1991쓪캪믹웚뗄GDP욽복횸쫽뫍내1991쓪볛룱뫋쯣뗄쪵볊GDP쫽뻝,볆쯣릫쪽캪Pt=[(YNt/YN1991)/(yt/y1991)]ꇁ100,YRt=(YNt/P)tꇁ100ꆣꋙ틀뻝쏉듺뛻ꆪ뢥삳쏷쒣탍,퓚맺볊놾ퟔ평쇷뚯뗄쳵볾쿂,죴닉좡만뚨믣싊훆뛈,퓲닆헾헾닟폐킧뛸믵뇒헾닟컞킧ꆣ1994쓪틔살,죋쏱뇒닉좡솪쾵쏀풪뗄ힼ만뚨믣싊훆뛈,틑뺭쪵쿖뺭뎣쿮쒿뗄뿉뛒뮻탔,늢쟒헽퓚훰늽쪵쿖놾쿮쒿뗄뿉뛒뮻탔,뇘좻펰쿬훐맺닆헾헾닟폫믵뇒헾닟퓚뺭볃컈뚨맽돌훐뗄쿠뛔킧솦ꆣ
56닆뺭컊쳢퇐뺿ꆡꆡ2005쓪뗚2웚ꆡꆡퟜ뗚255웚뢽뇭1훐맺맺쏱쫕죫폫볛룱횸쫽맺쓚짺닺ퟜ횵맺쓚짺닺ퟜ횵GDP욽복횸쫽맺쓚짺닺ퟜ횵쓪뛈(떱쓪볛룱,틚풪)(1978=100)(1991=100)(1991쓪볛룱,틚풪)YNyPYR19912161718030716010010021617180199226638110351140107186246961021993346341403981801231572802712419944675914044913014810831576132199558478110496150167159348931491996678841605441101771533823817719977446216059212017819141619118199878345120638150174159448731101999820671506841101701704807718220008946811073818017213151922108200197314180794120174135558151532002105172138601101731996044619120031168981493814017712565949175뢽뇭2뗄맺볒닆헾횧돶쫽뻝캪냼몬좫늿맺볒햮컱뮹놾뢶쾢횧돶뗄듳뿚뺶맺볒닆헾횧돶,벴쿖탐춳볆쳥쾵뗄춳볆맺볒닆헾횧돶폫맺볒햮컱뮹놾뢶쾢횧돶뗄ퟜ뫍,뛸맺볒닆헾쫕죫춳볆늻냼몬맺볒햮컱쫕죫ꆣ뢽뇭2쪹폃GDP욽복횸쫽쯵복쏻틥맺볒닆헾횧돶폫맺볒닆헾쫕죫,볆쯣내1991쓪볛룱뫋쯣뗄헦쪵맺볒닆헾횧돶폫맺볒닆헾쫕죫,볆쯣릫쪽캪GRt=(GNt/P)tꇁ100,IRt=(INt/P)tꇁ100ꆣ뚨틥ퟛ뫏쮰싊TR캪춬쓪닆헾쫕죫폫맺쓚짺닺ퟜ횵뇈싊,벴TRt=INt/YNtꆣ뢽뇭2훐맺닆헾쫕죫폫닆헾횧돶닆헾횧돶닆헾횧돶닆헾쫕죫닆헾쫕죫ퟛ뫏쮰싊쓪뛈(떱쓪볛룱,틚풪)(1991쓪볛룱,틚풪)(떱쓪볛룱,틚풪)(1991쓪볛룱,틚풪)ꆡGNGRINIRTR19913633142363314231491483149148011457199241801773875197348313732291410113081993497815240281774348195351913101125619946291198424819352181103523175011116199577061684598152624212037241680110671996929215852341427407199417218501109119971115119362331128651114483513601116219981315111075321449875195565615601126119991509812088451021144410867041320113942000174661321013614413395123777318101149720012091013111993124163861049398132011684200224616128141481001890316410864171011797200327559120155471882169111012237132011856닎뾼컄쿗:[1]ꆡ룟엠폂1훐맺맺햮맦쒣:쿖ힴꆢ평살폫돶슷[J]1뷌톧폫퇐뺿,2003,(3):7ꆪ81[2]ꆡ쇵맺맢,뗈1훐맺뺭볃잰뺰럖컶ꆪꆪꆪ2002쓪뒺벾놨룦[R]1놱뺩:짧믡뿆톧컄쿗돶냦짧,20021[3]ꆡ횣뎬폞,뗈1훐맺뫪맛뺭볃탎쫆폫헾닟:2003ꆪ2004쓪,훐맺죋쏱듳톧훐맺뺭볃랢햹놨룦2004[R]1놱뺩:훐맺죋쏱듳톧돶냦짧,2004:349ꆪ3501[4]ꆡBlanchard,O1Macroeconomics(2nded1)[M]1PrenticeHall,2000:5261[5]ꆡRomer,D1AdvancedMacroeconomics(2nded1)[M]1McGrawHill,2001:252ꆪ2531
