뗚29뻭ꆡ뗚6웚ꆡꆡꆡꆡꆡꆡꆡꆡꆡꆡꆡVol129,No162010쓪ꆡꆡ6퓂ꆡꆡꆡꆡꆡꆡꆡꆡꆡꆡꆡ벼ꆡ쫵ꆡ뺭ꆡ볃TechnologyEconomicsJune,2010믹폚쿬펦쪱볤뗄릩펦솴킭뗷닟싔퇐뺿룟ꆡ늨,쪯쫩짺(훘쟬듳톧뺭볃폫릤짌맜샭톧풺,훘쟬400044)햪ꆡ튪:퓚쫐뎡탨쟳볛룱뫍쿬펦쪱볤쏴룐쿂,놾컄틔튻룶릩펦짌뫍튻룶훆퓬짌릹돉뗄솽벶MTO릩펦솴캪놳뺰,춨맽붨솢릩펦솴쫕틦몯쫽쒣탍,럖컶쿬펦쪱볤뛔릩펦솴웳튵뻶닟뗄펰쿬ꆣ룸돶쇋릩펦짌뫍훆퓬짌퓚럖즢뻶닟쿂뗄ퟮ폅쿬펦닟싔,뗃돶쇋릩펦솴쮫랽퓚럖즢뻶닟쿂컞램쪵쿖릩펦솴췪쏀킭뗷뗄뷡싛ꆣ뛸뫳,뛔릩펦솴킭뗷컊쳢뷸탐쇋첽쳖,랢쿖솽늿쫕럑훆웵풼퓚싺ퟣ튻뚨쳵볾쿂쓜릻쪵쿖릩펦솴췪쏀킭뗷,늢춨맽쫽횵쪵샽뛔짏쏦뗄뷡싛뷸탐쇋쫍틥뫍쮵쏷ꆣ맘볼듊:릩펦솴킭뗷;쿬펦쪱볤;쪱볤볛룱쏴룐탍탨쟳;솽늿쫕럑훆웵풼훐춼럖샠뫅:F27213ꆡꆡ컄쿗뇪쪶싫:Aꆡꆡ컄헂뇠뫅:1002-980X(2010)06-0119-051ꆡ퇐뺿놳뺰훷튪쫇듓웳튵뗄뷇뛈돶랢,퇐뺿웳튵뗄ퟮ폅쿬펦닟싔ꆣ폫듋춬쪱,튲폐뫜뛠톧헟듓릩펦솴뗄뷇뛈돶랢,쿖뷱,맋뿍뛔닺욷뫍럾컱뗄쿬펦쪱볤맘힢뛈풽퇐뺿릩펦솴뗄ퟮ폅쿬펦닟싔ꆣShen뗈틔튻룶훆퓬살풽룟,릩펦솴룷뷚뗣웳튵튲퓚훂솦폚늻뛏쯵뛌웤짌뫍솽룶쿠뮥뺺헹뗄쇣쫛짌ퟩ돉뗄릩펦솴캪놳뺰,쿬펦쪱볤,틔펮뗃룼듳뗄쫐뎡럝뛮ꆣ떫릩펦솴쫇평퇐뺿탨쟳쪱볤볛룱쏴룐쿂,릩펦솴뷚뗣웳튵뗄ퟮ폅뛠룶웳튵ퟩ돉뗄뢴퓓췸싧쳥쾵,쯼퓚퓋ퟷ맽돌훐쫜뻶닟[6]ꆣ컄쿗[7-9]첽쳖쇋퓚쫐뎡탨쟳쪱볤볛룱쏴떽룷훖쯦믺틲쯘뗄룉죅,쪹뗃릩펦솴쿬펦쪱볤뻟폐룐쿂,릩펦솴뗄뻶닟랽쪽늻춬뛔릩펦솴퓋탐벨킧뗄퇏훘뗄늻좷뚨탔ꆣ틲듋뛔볛룱뫍쿬펦쪱볤쏴룐탍탨펰쿬,쮵쏷럖즢뻶닟믡붵뗍릩펦솴뗄헻쳥킧싊ꆣ쫂쟳뗄퇐뺿,뛔폚킭뗷릩펦솴돉풱쿠뮥킭ퟷ,탎돉릩펦쪵짏,평폚ꆰ쮫훘뇟볊뮯ꆱ쿖쿳뗄듦퓚,틲듋럖즢뻶닟솴헻쳥뺺헹폅쫆뻟폐훘튪틢틥ꆣ뿏뚨믡붵뗍릩펦솴헻쳥킧싊ꆣ뗄좷,릩펦솴돉풱뚼컄쿗짏,튻랽쏦쫇맘폚쪱볤볛룱쏴룐탍탨쟳뛔쫇뛀솢뻶닟뗄훷쳥,뻶닟쒿뇪뫜쓑튻훂ꆣ떫쫇룷뷚릩펦솴뻶닟펰쿬뗄퇐뺿,쇭튻랽쏦쫇릩펦솴킭뗷믺뗣웳튵펦룃듓릩펦솴헻쳥샻틦돶랢,붨솢쿠펦뗄킭훆뗄퇐뺿ꆣCelik횸돶퓚쫐뎡탨쟳볛룱뫍쿬펦쪱볤뗷믺훆,킭뗷룷웳튵뗄뻶닟탐캪,쪵쿖릩펦솴헻쳥킧쏴룐쿂,춨맽뚯첬맜샭닺욷뚨볛뫍쿬펦쪱볤,뿉틔듯틦ퟮ폅뮯ꆣ떽뗷뷚쫐뎡탨쟳뗄쒿뗄,늢퓚듋믹뒡짏럖컶쇋웳튵쒿잰,릩펦솴킭뗷훷튪쫇춨맽붨솢웳튵볤뫏ퟷ뗄ퟮ폅뻶닟[1]ꆣSo뫍Song퇐뺿쇋떱쫐뎡탨쟳볛룱뫏춬살쪵쿖뗄ꆣ헢웤훐훷튪냼삨:쫽솿(볛룱)헛뿛뫍쿬펦쪱볤쏴룐쟒돊뛔쫽쿟탔뇤뮯쪱,웳튵뗄ퟮ폅뫏춬ꆢ쫕틦릲쿭뫏춬ꆢ믘릺뫏춬뗈ꆣLin뫍Hsieh첽뚨볛ꆢ쿬펦쪱볤뫍닺솿[2]ꆣSo퓚쯦뫳뗄퇐뺿훐폖첽쳖쇋샻폃쫽솿헛뿛뫏춬킭뗷쏦쇙쪱볤볛룱쏴룐탍탨쳖쇋뛠룶웳튵퓚늻춬뺺헹돌뛈쫐뎡뗄ퟮ폅쿬펦닟쟳릩펦솴뗄쿠맘컊쳢[10]ꆣ쇭췢,닜ퟚ뫪뗈샻폃쫽솿싔[3]ꆣRay뫍Jewkes럖컶쇋떱볛룱쫇쿬펦쪱볤몯헛뿛웵풼킭뗷릩펦솴뗄랽램튲횵뗃뷨본[11]ꆣ뮹폐쫽뗄쟩뿶쿂웳튵뗄ퟮ폅뻶닟,늢뗃돶쇋볙뚨쿬펦쪱뫜뛠톧헟뛔쫕틦릲쿭뫏춬[12]ꆢ믘릺뫏춬[13-14]튲ퟶ볤뫍볛룱쿠뮥뛀솢믡떼훂듎폅뻶닟뗄뷡싛[4]ꆣ짛붨쇋듳솿뗄퇐뺿릤ퟷ늢좡뗃쇋럡쮶뗄퇐뺿돉맻ꆣ돽쇋뻼뗈틔튻룶평솽룶릩펦짌뫍튻룶훆퓬짌ퟩ돉뗄솽뷗짏쫶훷튪랽램췢,킭뗷릩펦솴뮹폐튻킩웤쯻랽램ꆣ뛎MTO릩펦솴캪놳뺰,퇐뺿랢쿖컞싛웳튵쏦쇙볛Pekgun뗈뻍샻폃솽늿쫕럑훆뫏춬킭뗷쫐뎡탨쟳쪱룱뺺헹쫐뎡뮹쫇쪱볤뺺헹쫐뎡,늻맜쫐뎡뺺헹돌뛈볤볛룱쏴룐탍릩펦솴뷸탐쇋돵늽첽쳖럖컶[15]ꆣ쇭죧뫎,붻뢶웚뛌뗄닺욷뿉믱뗃쿠뛔룟뗄볛룱벰쫐뎡췢,늹뎥웵풼[16]ꆢ략샻뫏춬[17]뗈퓚쳘뚨뗄뮷뺳쿂뚼탨쟳싊,듓뛸뿉믱뗃뷏룟뗄쫕틦[5]ꆣ떱좻,짏쫶컄쿗쓜쪵쿖릩펦솴킭뗷ꆣ쫕룥죕웚:2010-04-07ퟷ헟볲뷩:룟늨(1972ꆪ),쓐,훘쟬죋,훘쟬듳톧뺭볃폫릤짌맜샭톧풺뢱뷌쫚,쮶쪿짺떼쪦,퇐뺿랽쿲:릩펦솴맜샭ꆢ뻶닟횧돖쾵춳ꆢ뢴퓓쾵춳맜샭뗈;쪯쫩짺(1985ꆪ),쓐,훘쟬죋,훘쟬듳톧뺭볃폫릤짌맜샭톧풺쮶쪿퇐뺿짺,퇐뺿랽쿲:릩펦솴맜샭ꆣ119
벼쫵뺭볃ꆡꆡꆡꆡꆡꆡꆡꆡꆡꆡꆡꆡꆡꆡꆡꆡꆡꆡꆡꆡꆡꆡꆡꆡꆡꆡꆡꆡꆡꆡꆡꆡꆡꆡꆡꆡꆡꆡ뗚29뻭ꆡ뗚6웚죧잰컄쯹쫶,뛔폚쫐뎡탨쟳쪱볤볛룱쏴룐뗄퇐쏇쫗쿈힢틢떽몯쫽ꛕ(Ts)뫍ꛎ(Ts)뿉틔훘킴캪:뺿뛠벯훐퓚릩펦솴웳튵뻶닟탐캪뗄뇤뮯짏,뛔폚킭뗷믺훆뗄퇐뺿쿠뛔뷏짙ꆣ놾컄믹폚짏쫶컄쿗ꛕ(Ts)=TsF(Ts)-ꇒTstf(t)dt;0,퇐뺿탨쟳쪱볤볛룱쏴룐쿂릩펦솴뗄ퟮ폅쿬펦닟싔,늢첽ꛎ(Ts)=1-Ts[1-F(Ts)]-ꇒTstf(t)dtꆣ쳖릩펦짌뫍훆퓬짌럖즢뻶닟쿂릩펦솴뗄킭뗷컊쳢ꆣ0쪽(1)뛔p쟳튻뷗ꆢ뛾뷗떼쫽뗃:2ꆡ컊쳢쏨쫶폫럻뫅쮵쏷5ꚰc=-b1[2p-cs-cm-ꛁꛕ(Ts)-(ꛂ+5p놾컄틔튻룶평떥튻릩펦짌폫훆퓬짌ퟩ돉뗄솽뷗ꛃ)ꛎ(Ts)]+[a-b2(Ts+lt)];뛎MTO릩펦솴캪놳뺰,퇐뺿퓚쫐뎡탨쟳쪱볤뫍볛52ꚰ룱쏴룐쿂릩펦솴웳튵뗄ퟮ폅쿬펦닟싔,틔벰럖즢뻶c2b1<0ꆣ52=-p닟쿂릩펦솴뗄킭뗷컊쳢ꆣ캪쇋볲뮯컊쳢,볙짨릩펦평듋뿉횪,쫕틦몯쫽ꚰc쫇볛룱p뗄낼몯쫽,퓚솴짺닺떥튻닺욷,쇣늿볾좫늿평릩펦짌쳡릩ꆣ쿺쫛뚨틥쟸볤[0,ꇞ)듦퓚ퟮ듳횵,쇮5ꚰc/5p=0,뗃벾뷚뾪쪼잰,훆퓬짌풤닢쫐뎡탨쟳D,늢뻝듋쿲릩3펦짌쿂뚩떥늢ퟩ횯짺닺,좷뚨붻믵닟싔p=1[cs+cm+ꛁꛕ(Ts)+(ꛂ+ꛃ)ꛎ(Ts)]+(P,T)ꆣ웤2훐,p캪훆퓬짌훆뚩뗄쿺쫛볛룱,T캪릩펦솴쿬펦1[a-b쪱볤2(Ts+lt)]ꆣ(2)2b1,쟒폐T=Ts+ltꆣTs캪릩펦짌쿬펦쪱볤,캪쯦믺뇤솿ꆣ룹뻝췢맺톧헟뗄쪵횤퇐뺿뇭쏷[18-19],T붫(2)듺죫쪽(1),쫕틦몯쫽ꚰc뛔Ts쟳튻뷗ꆢ뛾s럾듓닎쫽캪ꛈ뗄붥뷸횸쫽럖늼ꆣ짨뷗떼쫽뗃f(x)ꆢF(x)럖뇰캪웤룅싊쏜뛈몯쫽뫍럖늼몯쫽ꆣ5ꚰclt캪훆퓬짌쿬펦=1-(ꛁ+ꛂ+ꛃ)F(Ts)+쪱볤5Ts2(벴ힰ엤짺닺쪱볤)ꆣ튻냣쟩뿶쿂훆퓬짌닉좡쇷쮮ퟷ튵,쿬펦쪱볤lt캪뎣쫽ꆣ쯹틔릩펦솴뗄쿬펦쪱b2-(ꛂ+ꛃ)D;b1볤평릩펦짌뗄쿬펦쪱볤Ts캨튻좷뚨ꆣ짨쫐뎡탨쟳52ꚰc1몯쫽캪D(ꛁ+ꛂ+ꛃ)f(Ts)Dꆣ5T2=-(p,T)=a-b1p-b2T(a>0;b1,b2>0)ꆣs2럻뫅쮵쏷:ꛁ캪릩펦짌떥캻닺욷떥캻쪱볤돖폐평듋뿉횪,떱쫐뎡탨쟳싊D좷뚨쪱,쫕틦몯쫽돉놾;ꛂ캪릩펦짌떥캻닺욷떥캻쪱볤퇓동돉놾;ꛃ캪ꚰc쫇쿬펦쪱볤Ts뗄낼몯쫽,퓚뚨틥쟸볤[0,ꇞ)듦훆퓬짌떥캻닺욷떥캻쪱볤퇓동돉놾;cs캪릩펦짌뇟볊떥캻돉놾;cm캪훆퓬짌뇟볊떥캻돉놾퓚ퟮ듳횵ꆣ쇮5ꚰc=0뿉뗃;w캪릩펦5Ts짌릩펦볛룱;ꚰc캪벯훐뻶닟쿂릩펦솴쫕틦;ꚰꛁs캪럖+ꛂ+ꛃ즢뻶닟쿂릩펦짌쫕틦T3s=F-1ꛂ+ꛃb2-b1=1;ꚰm캪럖즢뻶닟쿂훆퓬짌쫕틦ꆣꛁꛈln+ꛂꛁ+b2ꆣ+ꛃb1(3)3ꆡ쒣탍붨솢폫쟳뷢ퟛ뫏쪽(2)뫍쪽(3)뿉횪벯훐뻶닟쿂릩펦솴뗄ퟮ폅쿬펦닟싔3(P3,Ts)ꆣ311ꆡ벯훐뻶닟릩펦솴캪쇋뗃떽릩펦솴잱퓚뗄ퟮ듳쫕틦312ꆡ럖즢뻶닟릩펦솴,쫗쿈뾼싇릩펦짌뫍훆퓬짌벯훐뻶닟뗄쟩뿶ꆣ퓚MTO쒣쪽쿂럖즢뻶닟쿂,릩펦짌뫍훆퓬짌ퟷ캪샭탔뗄ꆰ뺭볃,훆퓬짌늻퓊탭릩펦짌쳡잰붻믵,쯹틔헢샯늻뾼싇훆죋ꆱ,틔룷ퟔ샻틦ퟮ듳뮯캪뻶닟쒿뇪ꆣ훆퓬짌룹뻝쫐퓬짌돖폐돉놾ꆣ듋췢뎡탨쟳,좷뚨닺욷볛룱p뫍쿬펦쪱볤T,늢ퟩ횯짺,죧맻퇓동붻믵,훆퓬짌뫍릩펦짌붫닺짺퇓웚돍랣돉놾ꆣ틲듋,벯훐뻶닟쿂릩펦솴닺ꆣ릩펦짌뗃떽훆퓬짌뚩믵뫳,좷뚨풭쇏릩펦볛룱ퟜ쫕틦몯쫽뿉뇭쪾캪w뫍쿬펦쪱볤Ts,쪹웤쫕틦ퟮ듳뮯ꆣ훆퓬짌폫릩펦:ꚰ짌뗄쫕틦몯쫽럖뇰캪:c=(a-b1p-b2T)[p-cs-cmꛕ(Ts)-(ꛂ+ꛃꚰm(Ts,p)=(a-b1p-b2T)[p-w-cm-)ꛎ(Ts)]ꆣ(1)ꛃꛎ(Ts)];(4)웤훐,ꛕ(Ts)=ꇒTs(t-Ts)f(t)dt,뇭쪾릩펦짌ꚰs(Ts,w)=(a-b1p-b2T)[w-cs-ꛁꛕ(Ts)-0웚췻돖폐쪱볤;ꛎꛂꛎ(Ts)]ꆣ(5)(Ts)=ꇒꇞ(t-Ts)f(t)dt,뇭쪾웚Ts뛔폚쫕틦몯쫽ꚰm뗄폅뮯샠쯆폚ꚰc,뛔웤쟳튻췻퇓동쪱볤ꆣ캪쇋뛔웚췻쫕틦몯쫽ꚰc뷸탐폅뮯,컒뷗ꆢ뛾뷗떼쫽뗃120
ꆡꆡꆡꆡꆡꆡꆡꆡꆡꆡ룟ꆡ늨뗈:믹폚쿬펦쪱볤뗄릩펦솴킭뗷닟싔퇐뺿ꆡꆡ5ꚰmꚰ=3-b1[2p-w-cm-ꛃꛎ(Ts)]+[a-b2(Tslt)]=3p+s5p2D>pꆣ+lt)];뇈뷏쪽(3)뫍쪽(8),쿔좻폐T33s=T3s돉솢ꆣ52ꚰm쇭췢,뛔폚쫕틦몯쫽ꚰc뗄튻뷗떼쫽5ꚰc/5p,떱52=-2b1<0ꆣp3p>p쪱,5ꚰc/5p<0,벴쫇쮵떱p>3p쪱,릩펦쯹틔,쫕틦몯쫽ꚰm쫇볛룱p뗄낼몯쫽,퓚뚨틥솴쫕틦쯦볛룱p떥뗷복짙ꆣ쯹틔폐쟸볤ꚰ3[0c=(a-b1p-b2T3)[p-cs-cm-ꛁꛕ(Ts),ꇞ)듦퓚ퟮ듳횵,쇮5ꚰm=0,뗃5p-(ꛂ+ꛃ)ꛎ(T3333s)]>(a-b1p-b2T)[p-cs-33p=1[w+cm+ꛃꛎ(Ts)]+1[a-b2(Ts+cm-ꛁꛕ(Ts)-(ꛂ+ꛃ)ꛎ(Ts)]=ꚰm+ꚰs22b1쿔좻,럖즢뻶닟붵뗍쇋릩펦솴헻쳥킧싊ꆣlt)]ꆣ(6)붫쪽(6)듺죫쪽(5),쟳ꚰs맘폚릩펦볛룱w뗄튻4ꆡ솽훖뻶닟쿂쫕틦뇈뷏쫽횵럖컶뷗ꆢ뛾뷗떼쫽뗃쏼쳢1뗄럖컶뷡맻뇭쏷,릩펦짌폫훆퓬짌럖즢5ꚰs=-b5w1w+1[a-b2(Ts+lt)]+1b1[cs-22뻶닟붵뗍쇋릩펦솴뗄헻쳥킧싊ꆣ캪쇋뷸튻늽뛔릩펦cm+ꛁꛕ(Ts)+(ꛂ-ꛃ)ꛎ(Ts)];솴뗄뻶닟탐캪뷸탐퇐뺿,컒쏇뛔쿠맘닎쫽쒣쓢뢳횵,52ꚰ뷸탐볆쯣럖컶ꆣ볙짨ꛈ=018ꆢcm=8ꆢcs=10ꆢb1s5w2=-b1<0ꆣ=115ꆢb2=112ꆢld=2ꆢa=100ꆢꛁ=2ꆢꛂ=3ꆢ평듋뿉횪,쫕틦몯쫽ꚰs쫇릩펦볛룱w뗄낼몯ꛃ=5ꆣ벯훐뻶닟쿂,룹뻝쪽(1)ꆫ쪽(3)볆쯣횪p=쫽411968ꆢTs=11591ꆢꚰc=7131248ꆣ럖즢뻶닟쿂,,퓚뚨틥쟸볤[0,ꇞ)듦퓚ퟮ듳횵,쇮5ꚰs=0,뿉5w룹뻝쪽(4)ꆫ쪽(8)볆쯣횪w=331488ꆢp=뗃릩펦짌ퟮ폅릩펦볛룱ꆣ521891ꆢTs=11591ꆢꚰs=3561622ꆢꚰm=w3=1[cs-cm+ꛁꛕ(Ts)+(ꛂ-ꛃ)ꛎ(Ts)]+1781311ꆣꚰs+ꚰm=5341933,쿔좻쏼쳢튻뗄뷡싛돉2솢ꆣ1[a-b2(Ts+lt)]ꆣ(7)퓚뇭1훐,컒쏇햹쪾쇋늻춬릩펦볛룱쿂,릩펦솴2b1붫쪽뗄쫕틦쟩뿶,늢믦훆쇋쟷쫆춼(볻춼1)ꆣ룹뻝뇭1(7)듺죫쪽(5),쟳ꚰs맘폚릩펦볛룱Ts뗄튻뷗ꆢ뛾뷗떼쫽뗃뫍춼1컒쏇뿉틔뗃떽죧쿂뷡싛:훆퓬짌뫍릩펦솴헻쳥쫕틦쯦릩펦볛룱w떥뗷뗝복;릩펦짌폐튻룶뇢욽5ꚰs=1-(ꛁ+ꛂ+ꛃ)F(Ts)+5T뗄쫕틦쟺쿟,웤쫕틦쯦릩펦볛룱w쿈퓶뫳복ꆣs2b2-(ꛂ+ꛃ)D;b152ꚰs=1-(ꛁ+ꛂ+ꛃ)f(Ts)Dꆣ5T2s2평듋뿉횪,떱쫐뎡탨쟳싊D좷뚨쪱,쫕틦몯쫽ꚰs쫇쿬펦쪱볤Ts뗄낼몯쫽,퓚뚨틥쟸볤[0,ꇞ)듦퓚ퟮ듳횵ꆣ쇮5ꚰs/5Ts=0,뿉뗃T33s=F-1ꛂ+ꛃb2ꛁ+ꛂ+ꛃ-1b1=ꛁꛈlnꛁb2ꆣ++ꛂ+ꛃb1(8)쏼쳢1:떱쫐뎡탨쟳싊D좷뚨쪱,럖즢뻶닟쿂훆춼1ꆡ늻춬릩펦볛룱쿂릩펦솴룷랽쫕틦퓬짌ퟮ폅뚨볛듳폚벯훐뻶닟쿂ퟮ폅뚨볛,릩펦짌ퟮ폅쿬펦쪱볤늻뇤,럖즢뻶닟ퟜ쫕틦킡폚벯훐뻶닟ퟜ5ꆡ릩펦솴킭뗷쫕틦ꆣ벴33p>33p,T33s=Ts,ꚰR+ꚰs<ꚰcꆣ잰컄뗄럖컶뷡맻뇭쏷,훆퓬짌폫릩펦짌횮볤럖횤쏷:평쪽(6)뿉뗃즢뻶닟,쳡룟쇋닺욷볛룱,쿷복쫐뎡탨쟳,복짙쇋릩33p=1[w+cm+ꛃꛎ(Ts)]+1[a-b2(Ts+펦솴샻죳,붵뗍쇋릩펦솴헻쳥킧싊ꆣ평폚훆퓬짌뫍22b1릩펦짌뚼쫇뛀솢뻶닟훷쳥,틲듋,튪쪹훆퓬짌뫍릩펦121
벼쫵뺭볃ꆡꆡꆡꆡꆡꆡꆡꆡꆡꆡꆡꆡꆡꆡꆡꆡꆡꆡꆡꆡꆡꆡꆡꆡꆡꆡꆡꆡꆡꆡꆡꆡꆡꆡꆡꆡꆡꆡ뗚29뻭ꆡ뗚6웚짌뗄뻶닟쪵쿖벯훐뻶닟뗄ퟮ폅뷡맻,뻍탨튪짨볆폐ퟔ짭쫕틦뗄쒿뗄ꆣ떫쫇죧맻릩펦짌붵뗍릩펦볛룱ퟔ킧뗄킭뗷믺훆,쪹훆퓬짌뫍릩펦짌뗄럖엤쫕틦듳폚벺뗄샻죳뻍믡붵뗍,릩펦짌뿏뚨쫇늻풸틢뗄,돽럇쓜럖즢뻶닟쫕틦,쳡룟뻶닟킧싊,춬쪱듙쪹쮫랽톡퓱벯릻뗃떽튻뚨뗄늹뎥,뛸헢늹뎥뇘탫듳폚틲볛룱붵뗍훐뻶닟뻹뫢닟싔(P33,Ts)ꆣ뛸쯰쪧뗄샻죳ꆣ놾컄훐,컒쏇샻폃솽늿쫕럑훆웵풼컒쏇횪뗀훆퓬짌뫍릩펦솴쫕틦쫇쯦릩펦볛룱w킭뗷릩펦솴ꆣ퓚솽늿쫕럑훆웵풼쿂,릩펦짌돽쇋쿲떥뗷뗝복뗄ꆣ춬쪱,컒쏇늻쓑랢쿖,쯦ퟅ릩펦볛룱w훆퓬짌쫕좡뷏뗍릩펦볛룱wt췢,뮹뛮췢쫕좡만뚨럑늻뛏붵뗍,릩펦솴쫕틦늻뛏쿲훆퓬짌틆,쯹틔훆퓬폃ꛇ,틔쏖늹쫕틦쯰쪧ꆣ듋쪱,훆퓬짌뫍릩펦짌뗄쫕짌폐뚯믺좥쮵럾릩펦짌붵뗍릩펦볛룱,틔듯떽퓶볓틦몯쫽럖뇰캪뇭1ꆡ늻춬틆볛룱w릩펦솴쫕틦뇭릩펦볛룱w121620242832364044p421147441147461147481147501147521147541147561147581147럖즢뻶닟ꚰm7021878578199746711163671235279135420314731391592871711471830릩펦솴ꚰs10132512712512201177289110333410293541955351188132418072731733ꚰc713120370612486871293656133861313835581428491147341215183211563ꆡꆡꚰmꇤ(Ts,p)=(a-b1p-b2T)[p-wt-cm-ꛃꛎ룹뻝잰컄뛔쿠맘닎쫽뗄볙짨ꆣ뺭맽볆쯣뗃떽:(Ts)]-ꛇ;wt=111682ꆢ3561622ꇜꛇꇜ5341937ꆣ듋쪱,ꚰs=ꚰꛇsꇤ(Ts,w)=(a-b1p-b2T)[wt-cs-ꛁ¢ꆢꚰm=7381248-ꛇꆢꚰs+ꚰm=7131248ꆣ쿔좻,릩(T펦솴퓋탐벨킧폫벯훐뻶닟릩펦솴쿠춬,솽늿쫕럑훆s)-ꛂꛎ(Ts)]+ꛇꆣ춬샭,쇮5ꚰmꇤ/5p=0뿉뗃훆퓬짌ퟮ폅볛룱웵풼랢믓킭뗷ퟷ폃,릩펦솴쪵쿖췪쏀킭뗷ꆣ쇭췢,컒쏇늻쓑뾴돶,죧맻릩펦볛룱싺ퟣ쳵볾333p=1[wt+cm+ꛃꛎ(Ts)]+1[a-b2(Ts22b1111682ꇜwꇜ331488,퓲릩펦솴뗄퓋탐벨킧튪폅폚+lt)]ꆣ(9)럖즢뻶닟ꆣ쯤좻릩펦짌쫕틦믡복짙,떫쫇훆퓬짌뫍쏼쳢2:뛔폚만뚨탨쟳싊D,떱솽늿쫕럑훆웵풼릩펦솴ퟜ쫕틦뚼붫퓶볓ꆣ죧맻쮫랽쓜릻붨솢솽늿쫕닎쫽(wt,ꛇ)싺ퟣ틔쿂쳵볾쪱,룃웵풼쓜릻랢믓킭뗷럑훆웵풼,춨맽뗷헻웵풼닎쫽ꛇ,퓲쓜쪵쿖쮫랽쫕틦ퟷ폃,릩펦솴헻쳥샻죳쪵쿖ퟮ폅뮯ꆣ벴죎틢럖엤,릩펦솴춬퇹쓜릻쪵쿖킭뗷ꆣwt=cs+ꛁꛕ(Ts)+ꛂꛎ(Ts)ꆡꚰ6ꆡ뷡싛3s-(a-b1p-b2T)[wt-cs-ꛁꛕ(Ts)-ꛂꛎ(Ts)]ꇜꛇꇜ33(a-b1p-b2T)[p-wt-cm-ꛃꛎ(Ts)]-ꚰm놾컄틔튻룶평릩펦짌폫훆퓬짌ퟩ돉뗄솽뷗뛎횤쏷MTO릩펦솴캪놳뺰,퇐뺿쫐뎡탨쟳쪱볤볛룱쏴룐:퓚솽늿쫕럑훆웵풼쿂,튪쪹럖즢뻶닟릩펦솴뫍벯훐뻶닟릩펦솴퓋ퟷ벨킧쿠뗈,뇘탫싺ퟣ3p쪱,릩펦솴뗄뻶닟탐캪ꆣ퓚뾼싇돖폐돉놾뫍퇓동붻=333pꆣ뇈뷏쪽(2)뫍쪽(9믵돉놾뗄쟩뿶쿂,춨맽퇐뺿랢쿖퓚훆퓬짌뫍릩펦짌)뿉틔뷢뗃wt=뛀솢뻶닟뗄쳵볾쿂,닺욷볛룱룟폚벯훐뻶닟쿂닺욷cs+ꛁꛕ(Ts)+ꛂꛎ(Ts)ꆣ쇭췢,튪쪵쿖릩펦솴킭뗷뮹탨싺ퟣ솽룶쳵볾볛룱;솽훖뻶닟랽쪽쿂뗃떽뗄릩펦솴ퟮ폅쿬펦쪱볤:ꚰ쿠뗈;럖즢뻶닟쿂쫐뎡탨쟳뗍폚벯훐뻶닟쿂쫐뎡탨mꇤ(Ts,p)ꇝꚰm(Ts,p)뫍ꚰsꇤ(Ts,p)ꇝꚰs(Ts,p)ꆣ평ꚰ쟳;럖즢뻶닟쿂훆퓬짌폫릩펦짌믱좡뗄샻죳ퟜ뫍킡mꇤ(Ts,p)ꇝꚰm(Ts,p)뿉뗃ꛇꇜ33폚벯훐뻶닟ퟜ샻죳ꆣ쮵쏷럖즢뻶닟붵뗍쇋릩펦솴뗄(a-b1p-b2T)[p-wt-cm-ꛃꛎ(Ts)]헻쳥킧싊ꆣ믹폚듋,컒쏇쳡돶쇋춨맽솽늿쫕럑훆웵-ꚰmꆣ평ꚰsꇤ풼킭뗷릩펦솴뗄닟싔,늢횤쏷퓚웵풼닎쫽(wt,ꛇ)싺(Ts,p)ꇝꚰs(Ts,p),뿉뗃ꛇꇝꚰퟣ튻뚨쳵볾뗄쟩뿶쿂,룃웵풼쓜릻랢믓킭뗷ퟷ폃,쪹3s-(a-b1p-b2T)[wt-cs-ꛁꛕ(Ts)-ꛂꛎ릩펦솴쫕틦쪵쿖ퟮ폅뮯ꆣ캪뇣폚럖컶,컒쏇볙뚨훆(Ts)]ꆣ쯹틔폐퓬짌횻쓜듓떥튻릩펦짌믱좡풭쇏쟒횻짺닺떥튻닺ꚰ욷,캪쇋룼뷓뷼쪵볊퓋폃,컒쏇붫살펦룃볓잿뛔뛠풭3s-(a-b1p-b2T)[wt-cs-ꛁꛕ(Ts)-닄쇏릩펦짌뛠닺욷욷훖뗄퇐뺿ꆣꛂꛎ(Ts)]ꇜꛇꇜ33(a-b1p-b2T)[p-wt-cm-ꛃꛎ닎뾼컄쿗(Ts)]-ꚰmꆣ횤뇏ꆣ[1]ꆡCELIKS,MAGLARASC1Dynamicpricingandlead2time122
ꆡꆡꆡꆡꆡꆡꆡꆡꆡꆡ룟ꆡ늨뗈:믹폚쿬펦쪱볤뗄릩펦솴킭뗷닟싔퇐뺿ꆡꆡquotationforamulticlassmake2to2orderqueue[J].Man2Management,Xiamen,2009:,2008,54(6):113221146.[11]ꆡ닜ퟚ뫪,훜폀컱1볛룱뫍뿢듦솿펰쿬탨쟳뗄릩펦솴솿헛[2]ꆡSOKC,SONGJS1Price,deliverytimeguaranteesand뿛뚨볛쒣탍[J].쾵춳릤돌톧놨,2008,23(1):[J].EuropeanJournalofOperationalRe2[12]ꆡCACHONGP,LARIVIEREMA1Supplychaincoordi2search,1998,111::strengthsand[3]ꆡSOKC1Priceandtimecompetitionforservicedeliverylimitations[J].ManagementScience,2005,51(1):30ꡃ[J].Manufacturing&ServiceOperationsManage2ment,,2(4):3922409.[13]ꆡ쇎돉쇖,쪯룕,샮?1튻훖탨쟳늻좷뚨쿂뗄믘릺닟싔짨볆[4]ꆡRAYS,JEWKESEM1Customerleadtimemanagement[J].벼쫵뺭볃,2009,28(11):11621201whenbothdemandandpriceareleadtimesensitive[J].[14]ꆡ키폱쏷,췴쿍풣1믹폚믘릺웵풼뗄릩펦솴킭뗷폫럧쿕럖EuropeanJournalofOperationalResearch,2004,153:7692떣럖컶[J].뿘훆폫뻶닟,2008,23(8):.[15]ꆡPEKGUNP,GRIFFINP,[5]ꆡ짛붨뻼,뿂듳룖1볛룱ꆢ쪱볤쏴룐탨쟳쿂뗄릩펦솴볛룱폫tionofmarketingandproductionforpriceandleadtime붻뢶웚맜샭[J].맜샭릤돌톧놨,2008,22(4):[J].IIETransactions,2008,40:12230.[6]ꆡSHENCL,ZHANGXX1PricingandLeadTimeJoint[16]ꆡ짛쿾럥,벾붨뮪1믹폚늹뎥뫏풼뗄릩펦솴뚨볛폫쓜솦짨DecisionsinTwo2echelonSupplyChainwithRetailersꆯ볆뗄킭뗷컊쳢퇐뺿[J].훐맺맜샭뿆톧,2008,16(4):622Competition[C]//&Engineering216thAnnualConferencePro2[17]ꆡ태훐뾬,샮룹뗀,쳆퇥닽뗈1췸싧뮷뺳쿂뾼싇뚯첬뚨볛뗄ceedings,Moscow,2009:6302635.쟾뗀킭뗷컊쳢퇐뺿[J].맜샭릤돌톧놨,2007,21(3):492[7]ꆡ십쪿뮪,췵뢣쫙1쪱볤볛룱쏴룐탍탨쟳쿂뗄릩펦솴뻶닟쒣551쪽퇐뺿[J].훐맺맜샭뿆톧,2006,14(3):13219.[18]ꆡSHANTHIKUMARJG,SUMITAU1Approxim2[8]ꆡ퇮컄쪤,샮샲1믹폚쿬펦쪱볤뗄릩펦솴웵풼킭춬럖컶[J].ationsforthetimespentinadynamicjobshopwithap2쾵춳릤돌톧놨,2006,21(1):[J].International[9]ꆡLIULM,PARLARM,ZHUSX1PricingandleadtimeJournalofProductionResearch,1988,26:[J].Management[19]ꆡKARMARKARU1Manufacturingleadtimes,orderre2Science,2007,53(5):713ꡃ[C]//GRAVESS,RIN2[10]ꆡLINCP,HSIEHCC1Leadtimedecisionsunderlead2NOOYKANA,ZIPKINP,eds1HandbooksinOpera2timesensitivedemandwithdemanddisruptions[C]//tionsResearchandManagementScience,Amsterdam:InternationalConferenceonServiceSystemsandServiceNorth2Holland,,ShiShusheng(CollegeofEconomicsandBusinessAdministration,ChongqingUniversity,Chongqing400044,China)Abstract:Undertimeandpricesensitivedemandsituation,basedonatwo2levelMTOsupplychainconsistingofonesupplierandonemanufac2turer,throughestablishingsupplychainrevenuemodelanalyzestheimpactofresponsetimeonsupplychainenterprisesdecision2making1First,theoptimalresponsestrategyforthesupplierandmanufacturerisdemonstrated,andthenitfindthesupplychaincannotbetheperfectcoordi2nationunderdecentralizeddecision2makingsituation1Italsodiscussesthecoordinationproblemunderdecentralizeddecision2makingsituationandfindthattwo2parttariffcontractcanperfectcoordinatethesupplychainifitsatisfycertainconditions1Finally,:supplychaincoordination;responsetime;timeandpricesensitivedemand;two2parttariffcontract123
