ꆡ뗚62뻭ꆡ뗚4웚커몺듳톧톧놨(헜톧짧믡뿆톧냦)ꆡ쓪7퓂WuhanUniversityJournal(Philosophy&SocialSciences)ꆫ446뷰죚늿쏅쾵춳탔럧쿕볠맜뗄죴룉쮼뾼쯎ꆡ쇨ꆡ럥[햪ꆡ튪]릫릲늿쏅뛔뷰죚늿쏅뗄럧쿕볠맜훷튪쫇뿘훆뷰죚늿쏅춨맽틾탔떣놣쿲릫릲늿쏅틆뗄럧쿕ꆣ퓚뛔틾탔떣놣뒫뗝뗄럧쿕뷸탐뛈솿뗄믹뒡짏,릫릲늿쏅뿉틔붨솢럧쿕ힼ놸뷰늢릹퓬릫릲늿쏅럧쿕ힼ놸뷰훆뛈ꆣ[맘볼듊]쾵춳탔럧쿕;뫪맛짳짷볠맜;뫪맛뷰죚릤돌[훐춼럖샠뫅]F832ꆡ[컄쿗뇪쪶싫]Aꆡ[컄헂뇠뫅]167227320(2009)04204432042006쓪뗗,컒맺틑좫쏦싄탐볓죫WTO맘폚럅뾪뷰죚튵뗄돐억,뷰죚뾪럅뷸돌듳듳볓뿬,뷰죚쫐뎡ꆢ뷰죚믺릹뫍뷰죚닺욷맺볊뮯쳘헷죕틦춻돶ꆣ퓚뷰죚쫐뎡뾪럅뗄쳵볾쿂,췢늿돥믷믡뛔컒맺뷰죚쳥쾵닺짺펰쿬,죧2007쓪뗄쏀맺듎듻캣믺뛔컒맺뷰죚쳥쾵뗄펰쿬헽퓚훰늽쿔쿖,틲듋,뇘탫볓잿뛔뷰죚늿쏅쾵춳탔럧쿕뛈솿뫍볠뿘ꆣ쒿잰,퓚컒맺뷰죚쫐뎡죚죫좫쟲뷰죚쳥쾵뗄놳뺰쿂,뛔뷰죚늿쏅쾵춳탔럧쿕뗄뛈솿뫍볠맜뷸탐쮼뾼,뻟폐샭싛뫍쿖쪵틢틥ꆣ튻ꆢ뷰죚늿쏅쾵춳탔럧쿕볠맜뗄샭싛럖컶뫪맛뷰죚릤돌쫇횸춨맽뷰죚릤뻟폫쫖뛎뗄뒴탂짨볆뫍훘탂ퟩ뫏ꆢ뷰죚뷡릹뗄뗷헻뫍뷰죚훆뛈뗄뇤룯살뷢뻶뫪맛뷰죚컊쳢ꆣ뷰죚늿쏅쾵춳탔럧쿕볠맜쫴폚맺볒뷰죚럧쿕맜샭뗄랶캧,뿉틔쪹폃뫪맛뷰죚릤돌뗄뿲볜뷸탐럖컶ꆣ(튻)뫪맛뷰죚릤돌뗄믹놾럖컶뿲볜듓쓚죝짏뾴,뫪맛뷰죚릤돌냼삨늿쏅닺뢺햮뇭럖컶ꆢ뫪맛뷰죚럧쿕맜샭뫍뫪맛뺭볃놾맜샭뗈죽룶랽쏦ꆣ웤훐폐맘늿쏅뷰죚닺뢺햮뇭쯹랴펳뗄탅쾢쫇뫪맛뷰죚릤돌퇐뺿뗄믹뒡,뫪맛뷰죚럧쿕맜샭뫍뫪맛뺭볃놾맜샭쫇뫪맛뷰죚릤돌퇐뺿뗄훷튪쓚죝ꆣ퓚폐맘늿쏅닺뢺햮뇭럖컶랽쏦,쫗쿈룹뻝뺭볃탔훊붫맺쏱뺭볃뮮럖캪릫릲늿쏅ꆢ뷰죚늿쏅ꆢ웳튵늿쏅뫍볒뮧늿쏅쯄룶훷튪늿쏅,늢럖뇰릹퓬늿쏅닺뢺햮뇭ꆣ뛔폚뫪맛뷰죚럧쿕맜샭뛸퇔,퓚뷰죚쫐뎡훰늽췪짆뗄쟩뿶쿂,쯹폐뗄뷰죚럧쿕뚼뇘좻펰쿬떽닺쫐뎡볛횵뗄뇤뮯ꆣ듓닺뢺햮뇭살뾴,떱닺볛횵랢짺뇤뮯쪱,닺쫐뎡볛횵뗄뇤뮯튲뇘좻펰쿬떽좨틦볛횵뗄뇤뮯,냼삨막좨뫍햮좨볛횵뗄뇤뮯,평듋닺뢺햮뇭믡돤럖랴펳늿쏅쫜떽뗄췢늿돥믷ꆣ폐맘늿쏅닺뢺햮뇭랴펳뗄맘폚닺뫍좨틦뗄샺쪷탅쾢뿉틔캪헢킩늿쏅럧쿕럖컶쳡릩믹뒡,쇭튻랽쏦폐맘늿쏅닺뢺햮뇭횮볤뗄맘쾵튲뿉틔캪퇐뺿럧쿕퓚헢킩늿쏅볤뗄뒫뗝쳡릩틀췐ꆣ뛔폚뫪맛뺭볃놾맜샭뛸퇔,튪돤럖랢믓놾뗄릦쓜,튻쫇뗖폹뷰죚럧쿕,뛾쫇뫏샭럖엤풴ꆣ(뛾)틔뫪맛뷰죚릤돌캪믹뒡뗄뷰죚늿쏅쾵춳탔럧쿕볠맜듓볠맜쒿뇪뗄뷇뛈,뷰죚볠맜뿉틔럖캪뫪맛짳짷볠맜ꆢ캢맛짳짷볠맜ꆢ쿻럑헟놣뮤볠맜뫍쫐뎡킧싊볠맜쯄룶샠뇰ꆣ뷰죚볠맜퓚뷰죚쳥쾵랢햹뗄늻춬뷗뛎닠훘뗣늻춬ꆣ쒿잰컒맺뷰죚볠맜쳥쾵틔캢맛짳짷ꆡꆡ쫕룥죕웚:2008203201ퟷ헟볲뷩:쯎쇨럥,커몺듳톧뺭볃폫맜샭톧풺붲쪦,늩쪿;뫾놱커몺430072ꆣ믹뷰쿮쒿:뷌폽늿2007쓪뛈헜톧짧믡뿆톧퇐뺿뫳웚훺훘듳쿮쒿(07JHQ0003)' 1994-2014 China Academic Journal Electronic Publishing House. All rights reserved.
ꆤ444ꆤ커몺듳톧톧놨(헜톧짧믡뿆톧냦)뗚62뻭ꆡ볠맜캪훷,ퟅ훘뿘훆뫍맜샭뷰죚믺릹럧쿕ꆣ퓚뷰죚쫐뎡좫쟲뮯뗄놳뺰쿂,컒맺뷰죚볠맜뗄닠훘뗣펦룃쿲뫪맛짳짷볠맜틆ꆣ풭틲퓚폚,떥룶틸탐뗄컈뚨늢늻쓜놣횤뫪맛뷰죚쳥쾵뗄컈뚨,뛔뷰죚늿쏅뗄쾵춳탔럧쿕뷸탐맜샭쫇뫪맛짳짷볠맜뗄훘튪랽쏦ꆣ뇭1ꆡ뷰죚늿쏅믲폐좨틦닺뢺햮뇭뷡릹ퟜ닺ퟜ좨틦듻뿮뫍웤쯻닺쯹폐헟좨틦(냼삨뛔웳튵늿쏅뫍볒뮧늿쏅뗄듻뿮)(믹폚뷰죚늿쏅닺뗄뾴헇웚좨)헾뢮떣놣햮컱/듦뿮/뢺햮(쒣탍뮯캪뾴뗸웚좨)(햮컱뗄컞캥풼볛횵-뾴뗸웚좨뗄볛횵)ꆡꆡ틔믲폐좨틦닺뢺햮뇭캪믹뒡,뿉틔뛔뷰죚늿쏅뗄럧쿕뷸탐퇐뺿ꆣ믲폐좨틦닺뢺햮뇭쫇붫닺뢺햮뇭뗄샺쪷탅쾢뫍막좨뗄쫐뎡탅쾢쿠뷡뫏탎돉뗄뺭볃볛횵닺뢺햮뇭ꆣ뻟쳥랽램쫇쪹폃믲폐좨틦뚨볛랽램,룹뻝닺뢺햮뇭폒랽뿉틔뇪볛뗄좨틦볛룱뫍늨뚯탔살닢쯣닺뢺햮뇭ퟳ랽닺뗄볛횵,탎돉췪헻뗄믲폐좨틦닺뢺햮뇭ꆣ믲폐좨틦닺뢺햮뇭뗄뷡릹죧뇭1쯹쪾ꆣ룹뻝늿쏅닺뗄볛룱뫍늨뚯탔뿉틔릹퓬랴펳뷰죚늿쏅쾵춳탔럧쿕뗄횸뇪,죧럧쿕훐탔캥풼룅싊ꆢ탅폃럧쿕틧볛뫍닺퓚쿕횵(VaR)ꆣ좻뫳럖컶췢늿돥믷,죧샻싊ꆢ믣싊뫍놾쇷뚯뛔뷰죚늿쏅믲폐좨틦닺뢺햮뇭룷쿮춷듧뫍쿠맘럧쿕횸뇪뗄펰쿬ꆣ퓚뷰죚늿쏅뗄믲폐좨틦닺뢺햮뇭훐,헾뢮떣놣쫇릫릲늿쏅뛔뷰죚늿쏅쳡릩뗄틾탔떣놣,쫇뷰죚늿쏅뗄닺,폫횮쿠뛔뗄쫇릫릲늿쏅뗄뢺햮ꆣ떱뷰죚늿쏅돶쿖럧쿕쪱,럧쿕폐뿉쓜춨맽헾뢮떣놣쿲릫릲늿쏅틆,평듋뿉쓜퓬돉릫릲늿쏅돶쿖쯰쪧ꆣ춨맽뛔헾뢮떣놣뗄볛횵뇤뮯뷸탐럖컶,뿉틔뛔뷰죚늿쏅쿲릫릲늿쏅틆뗄럧쿕뷸탐움볛ꆣ듓믲폐좨틦닺뢺햮뇭럖컶뗄뷇뛈뾴,뛔뷰죚늿쏅쾵춳탔럧쿕뗄볠맜뻍쫇뛔릫릲늿쏅춨맽헾뢮떣놣쯹돐떣뗄럧쿕뷸탐뿘훆ꆣ(죽)뷰죚늿쏅벫뛋럧쿕뫍헾뢮떣놣뗄럧쿕퓰죎믹폚뷰죚늿쏅뗄뷰죚럧쿕횸뇪,쪹폃뫪맛톹솦닢쫔뫍쏉쳘뾨싞쒣쓢벼쫵퇐뺿뷰죚늿쏅뗄잱퓚쯰쪧,퓚듋믹뒡짏좷뚨믲폐좨틦닺뢺햮뇭훐헾뢮틲캪쳡릩틾탔떣놣쯹돐떣뗄럧쿕,튲뻍쫇릫릲늿쏅쳡릩틾탔떣놣뿉쓜돶쿖뗄럧쿕ꆣ룹뻝Summ[1]er(뗚20튳)뫪맛톹솦닢쫔뗄뿲볜,뛔뷰죚늿쏅틾탔떣놣뿉쓜돶쿖뗄쯰쪧뷸탐뛈솿뗄믹놾쮼슷죧춼1쯹쪾ꆣ춼1ꆡ뷰죚늿쏅틾탔떣놣뿉쓜돶쿖쯰쪧뗄뛈솿춨맽뛔췢늿돥믷짨훃늻춬뗄쟩뺰,퇐뺿퓚늻춬쟩탎쿂뷰죚늿쏅탎돉뗄쯰쪧,좻뫳뷡뫏쫐뎡탅쾢릹퓬믲폐좨틦닺뢺햮뇭,럖컶뷰죚늿쏅뗄ퟜ쳥럧쿕,늢퇐뺿쿲릫릲늿쏅럧쿕뒫뗝ힴ뿶ꆣ뾼싇벫뛋쟩탎,뷸탐뫪맛톹솦닢쫔,퇐뺿릫릲늿쏅춨맽헾뢮떣놣뿉쓜돶쿖쯰쪧뗄퓚쿕횵(VaR)ꆣ퓚퓚쿕횵뗄믹뒡짏,쳡돶릫릲늿쏅펦룃쳡릩뗄럧쿕ힼ놸,튲뻍쫇릫릲늿쏅뗄럧쿕놾ꆣ릫릲늿쏅럧쿕ힼ놸쫇뫪맛뺭볃놾럧쿕맜샭쫴탔뗄랴펳ꆣ평폚놾ힼ놸듦퓚돉놾,틲듋릫릲늿쏅놾ힼ놸튪폐뫏쫊뗄맦쒣ꆣ' 1994-2014 China Academic Journal Electronic Publishing House. All rights reserved.
ꆡ뗚4웚쯎쇨럥:뷰죚늿쏅쾵춳탔럧쿕볠맜뗄죴룉쮼뾼ꆤ445ꆤ뛾ꆢ뷰죚늿쏅쾵춳탔럧쿕볠맜뗄믹놾쓚죝뷰죚쒿뇪쾵춳탔럧쿕볠맜뗄훷튪쓚죝냼삨뷰죚늿쏅럧쿕뛈솿ꆢ뷰죚늿쏅럧쿕쿲릫릲늿쏅럧쿕틆뗄뛈솿뫍뷰죚늿쏅쾵춳탔럧쿕볠맜뗈죽룶랽쏦ꆣ(튻)뷰죚늿쏅럧쿕뛈솿틔닺뢺햮뇭캪믹뒡,뷸탐뷰죚늿쏅뫪맛뷰죚럧쿕뛈솿ꆣ냼삨틔쿂벸룶뷗뛎,죧춼2쯹쪾ꆣ춼2ꆡ믹폚닺뢺햮뇭뗄뷰죚늿쏅럧쿕뛈솿쪹폃닺뢺햮뇭뷸탐뫪맛뷰죚럧쿕뛈솿,쫗쿈쫇뇠훆뫍럖컶늿쏅닺뢺햮뇭뫍믲폐좨틦닺뢺햮뇭ꆣ퓚뇠훆랽쏦,쪹폃떥튻믵뇒뛔닺뢺햮쿮뷸탐뗷헻,좻뫳맩늢뗃떽닺뢺햮뇭,쪹폃좨틦뗄폐맘쫐뎡탅쾢,춨맽웚좨뚨볛샭싛믱좡닺쫐뎡볛횵뫍늨뚯탔,늢틔듋캪믹뒡뇠훆믲폐좨틦닺뢺햮뇭ꆣ퓚럖컶랽쏦,춨맽닺뢺햮뇭랴펳닺뫍뢺햮뗄뷡릹탔탅쾢뿉틔뷸탐웚쿞듭엤ꆢ믵뇒듭엤ꆢ쟥뎥솦컊쳢뫍쇷뚯탔컊쳢퇐뺿ꆣ좻뫳,럖컶샻싊ꆢ믣싊늨뚯뫍놾쇷뚯틔벰웤쯻돥믷뛔믲폐닺뢺햮뇭폐맘쿮쒿뗄펰쿬ힴ뿶ꆣퟮ뫳,룹뻝닺뗄볛횵뫍늨뚯탔릹퓬뫪맛뷰죚럧쿕뗄횸뇪,죧캥풼뻠샫ꆢ캥풼룅싊뫍탅폃럧쿕틧볛ꆣ캥풼뻠샫ꆢ캥풼룅싊뫍탅폃럧쿕틧볛뗈횸뇪뿉틔쿔탔뗘랴펳떥룶늿쏅랢짺캥풼뗄뿉쓜탔틔벰캥풼쪱랢짺뗄쯰쪧ꆣ춨맽뷰죚럧쿕횸뇪뫍쪵볊맛달떽뗄탅쾢뷸탐쿠맘럖컶뫍믘맩럖컶,뾼달뫪맛뷰죚럧쿕횸뇪뗄폐킧탔ꆣ(뛾)뷰죚늿쏅쿲릫릲늿쏅럧쿕틆뗄뛈솿늿쏅볤럧쿕뒫뗝쫇뫪맛뷰죚럧쿕뗄훘튪쳘헷ꆣ쪹폃닺뢺햮뇭뻘헳뿉틔붫늿쏅볤뗄햮좨햮컱맘쾵뷸탐쏨쫶,랴펳럧쿕퓚늿쏅볤뗄뒫뗝ힴ뿶ꆣ틔믲폐좨틦닺뢺햮뇭뻘헳캪뛔쿳뷸탐퇐뺿,평폚늿쏅볤뗄햮좨햮컱맘쾵쳥쿖캪뷰죚쫐뎡뗄좨틦릤뻟,좨틦볛횵뗄뇤뚯뫍늨뚯뿉틔랴펳늿쏅볤럧쿕뒫뗝ힴ뿶,평듋뿉틔뛔늿쏅볤뗄럧쿕뒫뗝ힴ뿶뷸탐쪵쪱뗄볠닢ꆣ뷰죚늿쏅쿲릫릲늿쏅럧쿕틆뗄뛈솿,틀삵폚쪹폃믲폐좨틦랽램릹퓬뗄믲폐좨틦닺뢺햮뇭훐헾뢮떣놣쿮뗄탅쾢ꆣ쪹폃뗄랽램냼삨쟩뺰럖컶ꆢ뫪맛톹솦닢쫔뫍뫪맛퓚쿕횵랽램ꆣ퓚뫪맛톹솦닢쫔뗄쪹폃훐,튪뾼싇늻춬뗄럧쿕틲쯘뫍럧쿕뒫좾랽쪽ꆣ뛔폚뫪맛퓚쿕횵랽램,튪뾼싇뫏쫊뗄훃탅쮮욽ꆣ(죽)뛔뷰죚늿쏅쾵춳탔럧쿕뗄볠맜뛔뷰죚늿쏅쾵춳탔럧쿕뗄볠맜,냼삨뷰죚늿쏅쾵춳탔럧쿕ힼ놸뷰퇐뺿뫍ힼ놸뷰훆뛈뗄퇐뺿ꆣ볠맜늿쏅뿉틔쪹폃늿쏅쾵춳탔럧쿕ힼ놸뷰(뷰죚늿쏅ힼ놸뷰)ퟷ캪뫪맛짳짷탔볠맜뗄릤뻟ꆣ뛔쾵춳탔럧쿕ힼ놸뗄퇐뺿,냼삨뛔럧쿕ힼ놸뷰뗄쫊뛈맦쒣뫍돯벯폫쪹폃뗈랽쏦ꆣ럧쿕ힼ놸맦쒣룹뻝믲폐좨틦닺뢺햮뇭훐헾뢮떣놣뿉쓜돶쿖뗄쯰쪧살좷뚨ꆣ쾵춳탔럧쿕볠맜훆뛈퇐뺿훷튪캧죆쾵춳탔럧쿕ힼ놸뷰퓋탐펦룃붨솢뗄훆뛈낲업살햹뾪,늢쟒튪뾼싇늿쏅럧쿕ힼ놸뷰폫떥룶뷰죚믺릹놾ힼ놸뗄맘쾵ꆣ죽ꆢ뷰죚늿쏅쾵춳탔럧쿕볠맜퇐뺿뗄훷튪뒴탂1.퓋폃믲폐좨틦랽램뫍뫪맛톹솦닢쫔랽램,뛔뷰죚늿쏅뗄쾵춳탔럧쿕뷸탐퇐뺿ꆣ틔뷰죚늿쏅뗄닺뢺햮뇭뫍막욱쫐뎡볛룱캪믹뒡,퓋폃믲폐좨틦뚨볛랽램,룹뻝닺뢺햮뇭폒랽뿉틔뇪볛뗄좨틦볛룱뫍늨뚯탔살닢쯣닺뢺햮뇭ퟳ랽닺뗄볛횵,탎돉췪헻뗄믲폐좨틦닺뢺햮뇭ꆣ룹뻝뷰죚늿쏅닺볛룱늨뚯탔뫍믲폐좨틦닺뢺햮뇭뗄폐맘탅쾢,릹퓬늿쏅쾵춳탔럧쿕횸뇪ꆣ' 1994-2014 China Academic Journal Electronic Publishing House. All rights reserved.
ꆤ446ꆤ커몺듳톧톧놨(헜톧짧믡뿆톧냦)뗚62뻭ꆡ2.릹붨뷰죚늿쏅럧쿕ힼ놸뷰훆뛈ꆣ퓚뛔뷰죚늿쏅뗄뫪맛뷰죚럧쿕뷸탐뛈솿뗄믹뒡짏,쪹폃뫪맛톹솦닢쫔벼쫵살퇐뺿릫릲늿쏅쳡릩헾뢮떣놣쯹돐떣뗄럧쿕,퓚듋믹뒡짏릹퓬럧쿕ힼ놸뷰훆뛈ꆣ늿쏅럧쿕ힼ놸뷰뗄릹퓬캪뫪맛짳짷볠맜쳡릩쇋뷏뫃뗄릤뻟ꆣ캧죆뷰죚늿쏅쾵춳탔럧쿕ힼ놸뷰,릹퓬쿠펦뗄뷰죚볠맜뗄볜릹ꆢ믺훆뫍릤뻟ꆢ헾닟뫍훆뛈뗈ꆣ퓚뷰죚볠맜쳥쾵훐붨솢킧맻움볛뫍랴삡믺훆,뛔쪹폃늿쏅럧쿕ힼ놸뷰뛔쾵춳탔럧쿕뷸탐뿘훆뗄킧맻뷸탐럖컶ꆣ[닎ꆡ뾼ꆡ컄ꆡ쿗][1]ꆡSummer,.ꆰModellingInstabilityofBankingSystemsandtheProblemofMacroStressTests,ꆱECBConferenceSimulatingFinancialInstability.[2]ꆡGray,D.,.ꆰANewFrameworkforAnalysingandManagingMacrofinancialRisks,ꆱNBERWorkingPaper.[3]ꆡAvesani,R.,.ꆰANewRiskIndicatorandStressTestingTool:AMultifactorNth2to2defaultCDSBasket,ꆱIMFWorkingPaper.[4]ꆡ튶폀룕ꆢ쯎쇨럥ꆶ:뫪맛뷰죚릤돌싛룙ꆷ,퓘ꆶ뺭볃움싛ꆷ2007쓪뗚1웚ꆣ[5]ꆡMerton,.ꆰTheFinancialsystemandEconomicPerformance,ꆱJournalofFinancialServicesResearch4(4).[6]ꆡEvans,O.,,ꆰMacroprudentialIndicationsofFinancialSystemSoundness,ꆱIMF.[7]ꆡCrockett,.ꆰMarryingtheMicro2andMacro2prudentialDimensionsofFinancialStability,ꆱBankforInternationalSettlements.[8]ꆡBorio,.ꆰTowardsaMacroprudentialFrameworkforFinancialSupervisionandRegulation?ꆱBISWorkingPaper.[9]ꆡBorio,C.&.ꆰWhatCanMacro2prudentialPolicyDotoSupportMonetaryPolicy,ꆱBankforInternationalSettlements.[10]쇵짐쾣ꆶ:붨솢릫릲럧쿕ힼ놸뷰훆뛈ꆷ,퓘ꆶ훐맺횤좯놨ꆷ2008쓪8퓂27죕ꆣ[11]Praxis,.ꆰProposalsontheFinancialCrisis,ꆱinBuildingAnInternationalMonetaryandFinancialSystemforthe21stCentury:AgendaforReform.(퓰죎뇠벭ꆡ폚뮪뚫)NewThoughtsonRegulationofSystematicRiskofFinancialSectorSongLingfeng(SchoolofEconomic&Management,WuhanUniversity,Wuhan430072,Hubei,China)Abstract:Asthefinancialopeningupofeveryeconomicsectorisdeepening,,:systematicriskmanagement;macroprudentialregulation;macrofinancialengineering' 1994-2014 China Academic Journal Electronic Publishing House. All rights reserved.
