샮ퟓ쓎:볆솿뺭볃톧펦폃퇐뺿뗄ퟜ쳥믘맩쒣탍짨뚨볆솿뺭볃톧펦폃퇐뺿뗄ퟜ쳥믘맩쒣탍짨뚨3샮ퟓ쓎ꆡꆡ쓚죝쳡튪:놾컄듓볆솿뺭볃톧펦폃퇐뺿훐ퟜ쳥믘맩쒣탍짨뚨뗄죎컱뫍쒿뇪돶랢,춨맽뛔ퟜ쳥쒣탍짨뚨뗄퇐뺿쒿뗄떼쿲ꆢ뺭볃톧샭싛떼쿲ꆢ쫽뻝맘쾵떼쿲뗄럖컶폫움볛,쳡돶ퟜ쳥쒣탍짨뚨뗄캨튻탔ꆢ튻냣탔ꆢ쿖쪵탔뫍춳볆볬퇩뇘튪탔풭퓲;ퟮ뫳,쳡돶ퟜ쳥믘맩쒣탍짨뚨뗄ꆰ뺭볃훷쳥뚯솦톧맘쾵떼쿲ꆱ풭퓲뫍뿲볜ꆣ맘볼듊:볆솿뺭볃톧쒣탍ꆡퟜ쳥믘맩쒣탍ꆡ샭싛떼쿲ꆡ쫽뻝떼쿲ꆡ뚯솦톧맘쾵떼쿲튻ꆢ컊쳢뗄쳡돶벰웤훘튪탔볆솿뺭볃톧쒣탍랽램,쮵떽뗗,뻍쫇믘맩럖컶랽램ꆣ죎뫎튻쿮볆솿뺭볃톧펦폃퇐뺿뿎쳢,쫗쿈뗄튲쫇ퟮ훘튪뗄릤ퟷ쫇짨뚨ퟜ쳥믘맩쒣탍ꆣ횻폐짨뚨쇋헽좷뗄ퟜ쳥믘맩쒣탍,닅쓜춨맽퇏룱뗄쫽톧맽돌뫍춳볆췆뛏,뗃떽헽좷뗄퇐뺿뷡맻ꆣ틲듋,쯼뻶뚨쇋펦폃퇐뺿뗄돉냜ꆣ퓚컒맺,볆솿뺭볃톧쒣탍틑뺭돉캪뺭볃샭싛퇐뺿뫍쪵볊뺭볃럖컶뗄튻훖훷쇷뗄쪵횤퇐뺿랽램ꆣ틔ꆶ뺭볃퇐뺿ꆷ랢뇭뗄컄헂캪샽,컒쏇뛔1984ꆪ2006쓪ꆶ뺭볃퇐뺿ꆷ랢뇭뗄3100폠욪싛컄뷸탐춳볆럖컶,틔볆솿뺭볃톧쒣탍랽램ퟷ캪훷튪럖컶랽램뗄싛컄햼좫늿싛컄뗄뇈훘(닎볻춼1),1984쓪캪0%,떽1998쓪캪11%,좻뫳톸쯙쳡룟,2004쓪캪40%,2005캪56%,2006쓪캪53%ꆣ헢룶뇈훘틑뺭뎬맽쏀맺춬샠뾯컯ꆶ쏀맺뺭볃움싛ꆷ(AmericanEconomicReview)춬웚뗄쮮욽ꆣ뛸쟒퇐뺿뛔쿳뇩벰뺭볃뗄룷룶쇬폲,쯹펦폃뗄쒣탍랽램뇩벰볆솿뺭볃톧뗄룷룶럖횧ꆣ웤쯻뺭볃샠뾯컯,샽죧ꆶ뷰죚퇐뺿ꆷꆢꆶ쫀뷧뺭볃ꆷ뗈,컞늻죧듋ꆣ퓚뺭볃톧쏅샠룷룶톧뿆뗄퇐뺿짺톧캻싛컄훐,캪쇋쳡룟뫍쳥쿖싛컄뗄톧쫵쮮욽,붨솢폫펦폃볆솿뺭볃톧쒣탍룼돉캪튻훖웕뇩쿖쿳ꆣ쯹폐헢킩,쫇컒맺뺭볃톧뷌톧폫퇐뺿ퟟ쿲쿖듺뮯뫍뿆톧뮯뗄훘튪뇪횾,웤훷쇷뇘탫폨틔돤럖뿏뚨(샮ퟓ쓎,2007)ꆣ떫쫇,볆솿뺭볃톧펦폃퇐뺿훐듦퓚뗄컊쳢뫜뛠,듭컳뮹뇈뷏웕뇩ꆣ훘튪풭틲횮튻,쫇좱짙뛔폚볆솿뺭볃톧쒣탍랽램싛믹뒡뗄퇐뺿뫍샭뷢ꆣퟷ캪튻훖랽램싛,쯼뗄헜톧믹뒡ꆢ뺭볃톧믹뒡ꆢ쫽톧믹뒡뫍춳볆톧믹뒡뮹쎻폐쫜떽ퟣ릻뗄훘쫓ꆣ볆솿뺭볃톧쒣탍랽램싛믹뒡벯훐쳥쿖폚ퟜ쳥믘맩쒣탍뗄짨뚨,튻냣돆캪쒣탍뗄ퟜ쳥짨뚨,놾컄쫔춼폃춨쯗뗄폯퇔뻍헢룶컊쳢뷸탐쳖싛ꆣ캪쇋쮵쏷컊쳢뗄퇏훘탔뫍쳖싛뗄랽뇣춼1ꆡꆶ뺭볃퇐뺿ꆷ샺쓪볆솿뺭볃톧펦폃퇐뺿싛컄뗄뇈훘ꆡ,늻럁틔쒳뾯컯뗄쒳웚캪샽,웤훐릲랢뇭싛컄11욪(캴볆믡틩ퟛ쫶),폐8욪펦폃쇋볆솿뺭볃톧쒣탍,3ꆡ샮ퟓ쓎,쟥뮪듳톧뺭볃맜샭톧풺,폊헾뇠싫:100084,뗧ퟓ탅쿤:lizinai@ꆣ놾컄쫜맺볒짧믡뿆톧믹뷰훘뗣쿮쒿(08AJY001,볆솿뺭볃톧쒣탍랽램싛믹뒡퇐뺿)뗄훺ꆣퟷ헟쪮럖룐킻럫?룕늩쪿뗄늩쪿싛컄룸폨놾컄뗄웴쪾,룐킻쓤쏻짳룥죋뗄놦맳붨틩ꆣ떱좻,컄퓰ퟔ뢺ꆣ136
2008쓪뗚8웚헢킩싛컄뚼뻟폐뷏룟뗄톧쫵쮮욽뫍훘튪뗄펦폃볛횵ꆣ떫쫇,듓볆솿뺭볃톧쒣탍ퟜ쳥짨뚨뗄뷇뛈뾴,웤훐훁짙5욪싛컄퓚쒣탍짨뚨랽쏦쫇횵뗃쳖싛뗄ꆣ놾컄쫗쿈뛔볆솿뺭볃톧쒣탍ퟜ쳥짨뚨뗄죎컱볓틔쮵쏷;뷓ퟅ뛔쪵볊펦폃퇐뺿훐뗄퇐뺿쒿뗄떼쿲ꆢ뺭뗤볆솿뺭볃톧쒣탍뗄쿈퇩샭싛떼쿲뫍쿖듺쪱볤탲쇐쒣탍뗄쫽뻝떼쿲럖뇰뷸탐럖컶폫움볛;ퟮ뫳,쳡돶볆솿뺭볃톧쒣탍ퟜ쳥짨뚨뗄뺭볃훷쳥뚯솦톧맘쾵떼쿲뗄뿲볜ꆣ뛾ꆢ볆솿뺭볃톧쒣탍뗄ퟜ쳥짨뚨죎뫎뿆톧퇐뺿,컞싛쫇ퟔ좻뿆톧뮹쫇짧믡뿆톧,뚼쫇쫔춼믘듰택??컊:죧뫎듓뺭샺떽뗄맽좥ꆢ쳘쫢ꆢ뻖늿,췆싛떽쎻폐뺭샺떽뗄캴살ꆢ튻냣ꆢ헻쳥?뚼ퟱ톭틔쿂맽돌:쫗쿈쫇맘폚얼좻뗄ꆢ룶뇰뗄ꆢ쳘쫢뗄쿖쿳뗄맛달;웤듎쫇듓뛔얼좻뗄ꆢ룶뇰뗄ꆢ쳘쫢뗄쿖쿳뗄맛달훐,쳡돶볙쮵,믲헟쫇샭싛,믲헟쫇쒣탍,헢킩볙쮵쫇맘폚뇘좻ꆢ튻냣ꆢ웕뇩쿖쿳뛸퇔뗄;좻뫳뛔볙쮵뷸탐볬퇩,볬퇩랽램튻냣냼삨쪵퇩뗄랽램ꆢ풤닢뗄랽램뫍믘맩뗄랽램;ퟮ뫳쫇랢쿖,맘폚뇘좻ꆢ튻냣ꆢ웕뇩뗄맦싉뗄랢쿖ꆣ뺭볃톧퇐뺿튲쫇죧듋ꆣ늻춬폚ퟔ좻뿆톧뗄쫇,퓚췆싛맽돌훐,퓚쳡돶볙쮵뷗뛎,룹뻝쫇럱틽죫볛횵에뛏,뺭볃톧퇐뺿폐맦랶퇐뺿뫍쪵횤퇐뺿횮럖ꆣ죧잰쯹쮵,볆솿뺭볃톧쒣탍쫇튻훖훷쇷뗄쪵횤뺭볃톧퇐뺿랽램싛(샮ퟓ쓎,2007)ꆣ볆솿뺭볃톧쒣탍뗄ퟜ쳥짨뚨,뻍쫇짏쫶듓맛달떽뗄퇹놾돶랢,쳡돶맘폚ퟜ쳥뗄볙짨뗄맽돌,늢폃볆솿뺭볃톧쒣탍뗄탎쪽볓틔뇭쫶ꆣ폐솽훖믹놾뗄ퟜ쳥쒣탍:튻쫇뺲첬뗄ퟜ쳥쒣탍,훷튪쫇쏨쫶뺭볃틲쯘횮볤늻쯦쪱볤퇝뇤뗄뺲첬욽뫢뷡릹,솦춼뷒쪾뺭볃쾵춳뗄욽뫢맘쾵램퓲,뛔펦뗄ퟜ쳥쫇늻쯦쪱볤뇤뮯뗄뺲첬쯦믺럖늼,춨뎣샻폃뷘쏦쫽뻝살맀볆ퟜ쳥쒣탍닎쫽ꆣ뛾쫇뚯첬뗄ퟜ쳥쒣탍,훷튪쫇쏨쫶돖탸퇝뇤뗄뺭볃틲쯘횮볤뗄뚯첬욽뫢뷡릹,솦춼뷒쪾뺭볃쾵춳뗄퇝뇤램퓲,뛔펦뗄ퟜ쳥쫇퓚쪱볤캬뛈짏돖탸랢짺뗄쯦믺맽돌,춨뎣샻폃쪱볤탲쇐쫽뻝살맀볆ퟜ쳥쒣탍닎쫽ꆣ듓퇐뺿뛔쿳뮮럖,뿉틔쫇떥랽돌쒣탍,믲헟쫇솪솢랽돌쒣탍,럖뇰쏨쫶떥튻뗄뺭볃믮뚯믲헟뺭볃쾵춳ꆣ럫?룕(2007)틔떥랽돌볆솿뺭볃톧쒣탍캪샽,뛔ퟜ쳥쒣탍뗄짨뚨룸돶쇋ힼ좷뗄뷧뚨ꆣ룸뚨죎뫎놻뷢쫍뇤솿y,튪뛔웤뷸탐췪좫뗄뷢쫍,탨뾼싇쯹폐뛔웤폐횱뷓펰쿬뗄틲쯘벯ꚸꆣ내헕폫놻뷢쫍뇤솿맘솪맘쾵뗄뫣뎣탔뫍쿔훸탔솽룶캬뛈,뿉틔뛔ꚸ뷸탐럖뷢:쿔훸뗄뫣뎣탔틲쯘벯Xꆢ쿔훸뗄얼좻탔틲쯘벯T폫컞쫽떥튻틲쯘펰쿬뿉틔뫶싔뗄럇쿔훸틲쯘벯I,쯼쏇싺ퟣꚸ=XꇈTꇈI,XꇉT=XꇉI=TꇉI=ªꆣ헢샯뗄ꆰ뫣뎣탔ꆱ,믲헟뢲룇쯹폐뗄뷘쏦룶쳥,믲헟뢲룇쪱볤탲쇐뗄쯹폐쪱뗣ꆣ볆솿뺭볃톧뗄죎컱쫇헒떽놻뷢쫍뇤솿폫뫣뎣탔틲쯘횮볤뗄맘솪맘쾵,벴쯹캽뗄뺭볃맦싉ꆣ뛔폚쿔훸뗄얼좻틲쯘,춨맽쫽뻝헯뛏랢쿖듦퓚헢킩틲쯘뗄ꆰ웦틬뗣ꆱ,좻뫳춨맽벼쫵쫖뛎쿻돽웤펰쿬ꆣ떫뛔폚럇쿔훸틲쯘,컞싛쫇뫣뎣탔뗄뮹쫇얼좻탔뗄,뺡맜쯼쏇뗄떥뛀펰쿬뿉틔뫶싔늻볆,좴늻쓜볲떥뫶싔뗴컞쫽럇쿔훸틲쯘뗄펰쿬ꆣGreene(2003)횸돶,쎻폐쪲쎴쒣탍뿉틔웚췻뒦샭뺭볃쿖쪵뗄컞쫽얼좻틲쯘,틲듋퓚뺭퇩쒣탍훐쓉죫쯦믺튪쯘쫇뇘탫뗄,놻뷢쫍뇤솿뗄맛달횵늻뷶튪맩틲폚틑뺭쟥돾쇋뷢뗄뇤솿,튲튪뾼싇살ퟔ죋쏇늢늻쟥돾쇋뷢뗄얼좻탔뫍컞쫽캢죵틲쯘뗄펰쿬ꆣ평폚듦퓚컞램좷뚨뗄컞쫽럇쿔훸틲쯘,랢쿖뺭볃맦싉뗄맽돌뇤뗃럇뎣뢴퓓,튲뫜쓑내헕좷뚨탔뗄랽쪽랢쿖좷뚨탔뗄뺭볃맦싉ꆣ틲듋,ퟷ캪볆솿뺭볃럖컶웰뗣뗄ퟜ쳥쒣탍뿉평랽돌ꚷ(y,X)=v살쏨쫶,웤훐ꚷ캪몯쫽탎쪽ꆣ쯦믺돩퇹좡뗃뗄쫽뻝헽쫇퓚룃ퟜ쳥쒣탍횮쿂짺돉뗄,틲듋듓쫽뻝짺돉맽돌뗄뷇뛈살뾴,룃ퟜ쳥쒣탍벴쫽뻝짺돉맽돌ꆣ틲듋,쒣탍ퟜ쳥짨뚨뗄쪵볊맽돌붫훷튪냼삨죽룶늿럖:튻쫇캧죆놻뷢쫍뇤솿y,뷧뚨펰쿬틲쯘벯ꚸ,늢뷸탐폐킧럖뷢,뗃떽쿔훸뫣뎣틲쯘벯Xꆢ쿔훸얼좻틲쯘벯T폫럇쿔훸틲쯘벯Iꆣ웤훐,I컞램뺭퇩뷧뚨,횻쓜퓚좷뚨쿔훸틲쯘벯X뫍T뫳좡늹벯,벴I=ꚸ\(XꇈT)ꆣ뛾쫇좷뚨뿉틔뷼쯆ꚷ뗄몯쫽탎쪽f폫퓚f쿂y뫍X뗄맘쾵닎쫽ꚨXꆣ죽쫇좷뚨쯦믺죅뚯쿮ꛔ뗄룅싊럖늼쳘탔뫍쿠펦뗄룅싊럖137
샮ퟓ쓎:볆솿뺭볃톧펦폃퇐뺿뗄ퟜ쳥믘맩쒣탍짨뚨늼닎쫽ꚨꛔꆣퟮ훕뗃떽듽맀ퟜ쳥쒣탍랽돌f(y,X,ꚨX)=ꛔ(ꚨꛔ),웤훐ꚨX폫ꚨꛔ캪듽맀닎쫽ꆣ죽ꆢ볆솿뺭볃톧쒣탍ퟜ쳥짨뚨뗄ꆰ캨튻탔ꆱ뫍ꆰ튻냣탔ꆱ풭퓲죎뫎펦폃퇐뺿뚼폐쳘뚨뗄퇐뺿쒿뗄,샽죧럖컶쒳솽룶뺭볃뇤솿횮볤뗄맘쾵,믲헟움볛쒳쿮뺭볃헾닟뗄킧맻ꆣ폚쫇,내헕쳘뚨뗄퇐뺿쒿뗄뷸탐뗄볆솿뺭볃톧쒣탍ퟜ쳥짨뚨,돉캪볆솿뺭볃톧펦폃퇐뺿뗄웕뇩쿖쿳뫍ퟮ퇏훘뗄컊쳢ꆣ볆솿뺭볃톧쒣탍ퟜ쳥짨뚨,뇘탫ퟱ톭ꆰ캨튻탔ꆱ풭퓲ꆣ뛔폚춬튻룶ퟷ캪퇐뺿뛔쿳뗄놻뷢쫍뇤솿,쯼뫍쯹폐펰쿬틲쯘횮볤횻쓜듦퓚튻훖뿍맛뗄헽좷뗄맘쾵ꆣ믲헟쮵,뛔폚튻ퟩ놻뷢쫍뇤솿퇹놾맛닢횵,횻쓜평튻훖뿍맛뗄쫽뻝짺돉맽돌짺돉ꆣ쯹틔,헽좷뗄ퟜ쳥쒣탍횻쓜쫇튻룶ꆣ늻춬뗄퇐뺿헟ꆢ늻춬뗄퇐뺿쒿뗄ꆢ늻춬뗄쫽뻝톡퓱랽램ꆢ늻춬뗄쫽뻝벯,믡뛔쒣탍뗄풼뮯뫍볲뮯맽돌닺짺펰쿬,믡쪹뗃ퟮ훕뗄펦폃쒣탍폐쯹늻춬ꆣ떫쫇,ퟷ캪퇐뺿웰뗣뗄ퟜ쳥쒣탍뇘탫쫇캨튻뗄ꆣ죧뫎놣횤ꆰ캨튻탔ꆱ,틽돶쇋쿂쏦뗄ꆰ튻냣탔ꆱꆣ볆솿뺭볃톧쒣탍ퟜ쳥짨뚨,뇘탫ퟱ톭ꆰ튻냣탔ꆱ풭퓲,벴ퟷ캪붨쒣웰뗣뗄ퟜ쳥쒣탍뇘탫쓜릻냼죝쯹폐뺭맽풼뮯뗃떽뗄ꆰ볲뷠ꆱ뗄쒣탍ꆣ뻟쳥붲,쯼펦룃냼몬쯹폐뛔놻뷢쫍뇤솿닺짺펰쿬뗄뇤솿,뺡맜웤훐뗄쒳킩뇤솿믡틲캪쿔훸탔늻룟믲헟늻싺ퟣ헽붻탔쳵볾뗈풭틲퓚뫳살뗄풼뮯맽돌훐놻업돽ꆣ볆솿뺭볃톧쒣탍랢햹뗄샺쪷짏,퓸뺭뎫떼맽ꆰ듓볲떥떽튻냣ꆱ뗄붨쒣쮼슷,쓇쫇평폚샺쪷뗄뻖쿞,틑뺭놻ꆰ듓튻냣떽볲떥ꆱ뗄붨쒣쮼슷쯹좡듺ꆣ캪쪲쎴?볆솿뺭볃톧쒣탍랽램쫇튻훖뺭퇩쪵횤뗄랽램,쯼쫇붨솢퓚횤캱뫍횤쪵뗄늻뛔돆탔뗄싟벭톧믹뒡횮짏뗄ꆣ튻떩ퟜ쳥쒣탍놻짨뚨,샻폃퇹놾쫽뻝뷸탐뗄뺭퇩볬퇩횻쓜랢쿖틑뺭냼몬웤훐뗄쓄킩뇤솿쫇늻쿔훸뗄,뛸늻쓜랢쿖쎻폐냼몬웤훐뗄쿔훸뇤솿;횻쓜랢쿖틑뺭놻닉폃뗄몯쫽맘쾵쫇늻잡떱뗄,뛸늻쓜랢쿖쎻폐놻닉폃뗄헽좷뗄몯쫽맘쾵ꆣ잰쏦쳡벰뗄뾯컯뗄튻욪뷸탐훐맺뫍펡뛈늻욽뫢랢햹뗄뇈뷏퇐뺿뗄싛컄,ퟅ훘럖컶쇋늻욽뫢퓶뎤뛔욶삧뗄펰쿬ꆣ캪쇋럖컶닺튵볤뗄퓶뎤늻욽뫢뛔욶삧뗄펰쿬,틔욶삧싊캪놻뷢쫍뇤솿,틔죋뻹GDP뫍죽듳닺튵퓚GDP훐뗄럝뛮캪뷢쫍뇤솿,붨솢쇋튻ퟩ믘맩쒣탍;캪쇋럖컶뻓쏱쫕죫퓶뎤늻욽뫢뛔욶삧뗄펰쿬,틔욶삧싊캪놻뷢쫍뇤솿,틔얩듥뻓쏱욽뻹쫕죫퓶뎤싊ꆢ돇쫐뻓쏱욽뻹쫕죫퓶뎤싊,틔벰죋뿚쇷뚯킧펦캪뷢쫍뇤솿,붨솢쇋쇭췢튻ퟩ믘맩쒣탍ꆣ뛁헟뿏뚨믡컊,볈좻욶삧싊쫜떽닺튵볤뗄퓶뎤늻욽뫢뫍뻓쏱쫕죫퓶뎤늻욽뫢뗄릲춬펰쿬,캪쪲쎴늻붨솢튻ퟩ냼삨솽랽쏦틲쯘뗄쒣탍뛸튪럖뇰붨솢쒣탍?럖뇰붨솢뗄쒣탍뗄맀볆뷡맻뫍춳볆췆뛏폐틢틥싰?욶삧싊돽쇋쫜떽늻욽뫢퓶뎤뗄펰쿬췢,훆뛈틲쯘ꆢ헾닟틲쯘뗈튲폐훘튪펰쿬,캪쪲쎴퓚쒣탍훐캴폨뾼싇?죧맻쓜릻횤쏷닺튵퓶뎤늻욽뫢ꆢ뻓쏱쫕죫퓶뎤늻욽뫢쫇쿠뮥뛀솢뗄,쓇쎴쒣탍뗄뷡맻쫇뿉뾿뗄,떫쫇싛컄훐늢캴볻떽헢퇹뗄횤쏷ꆣ뛸쟒듓붨쒣쮼슷붲,뮹쫇펦룃듓ꆰ튻냣ꆱ떽ꆰ볲떥ꆱ,뛸늻쫇듓ꆰ볲떥ꆱ떽ꆰ볲떥ꆱꆣ쇭튻욪맘폚뻓쏱짧믡탅죎쮮욽뗄펰쿬틲쯘럖컶뗄싛컄,춨맽뛾횵probit쒣탍럖컶뻓쏱뗄짧믡탅죎쮮욽폫룷룶펰쿬틲쯘횮볤뗄맘쾵ꆣퟷ헟샻폃쪵볊뗷닩뗄캢맛쫽뻝,틔뛾횵샫즢뇤솿뇭쪾뻓쏱뗄짧믡탅죎쮮욽,죧맻쫜럃헟뇭쪾짧믡짏듳뛠쫽죋뿉틔탅죎,룃뇤솿뢳횵캪1;랴횮캪0ꆣ싛컄퇏쯠뿆톧뗘럖컶쇋뻓쏱짧믡탅죎쮮욽뗄펰쿬틲쯘,붫웤럖캪죽샠:룶죋틲쯘,샽죧탔뇰ꆢ쓪쇤ꆢ쫜뷌폽돌뛈ꆢ쫕죫쮮욽ꆢ뻍튵쟩뿶ꆢퟚ뷌탅퇶뗈;짧쟸틲쯘,샽죧퓚놾쫐뻓힡뗄쪱볤ꆢ죕뎣폯퇔샠탍뗈;짧믡틲쯘,샽죧쫇럱닎볓짧믡췅쳥ꆢ뛔헾뢮뗄움볛ꆢ뛔쎽쳥뗄움볛뗈ꆣ싛컄쫗쿈톡퓱룶죋틲쯘ퟷ캪뷢쫍뇤솿붨솢쒣탍,맀볆웤닎쫽;좻뫳ꆰ뿘훆ꆱ룶죋틲쯘,틽죫짧쟸틲쯘ퟷ캪뷢쫍뇤솿붨솢쒣탍,맀볆웤닎쫽;ퟮ뫳ꆰ뿘훆ꆱ룶죋틲쯘뫍짧쟸틲쯘,틽죫짧믡틲쯘ퟷ캪뷢쫍뇤솿붨솢쒣탍,맀볆웤닎쫽ꆣ튻룶쿔뛸틗볻뗄컊쳢쫇,캪쪲쎴늻횱뷓붨솢튻룶ퟮꆰ튻냣ꆱ뗄냼삨쯹폐펰쿬틲쯘뗄ퟜ쳥쒣탍?볈좻펰쿬틲쯘냼삨죽늿럖,쓇쎴틔웤훐쒳튻늿럖ퟷ캪뷢쫍뇤솿붨솢쒣탍,웤닎쫽맀볆뷡맻폐틢틥싰?춬퇹,죧맻쓜릻횤쏷룶죋틲쯘ꆢ짧쟸틲쯘ꆢ짧믡틲쯘쫇쿠뮥뛀솢뗄,쓇쎴쒣탍뗄뷡맻쫇뿉뾿뗄ꆣ떫쫇싛컄훐138
2008쓪뗚8웚늢캴볻떽헢퇹뗄횤쏷,헢튲늻럻뫏듓ꆰ튻냣ꆱ떽ꆰ볲떥ꆱ뗄붨쒣쮼슷ꆣ쇭튻욪믹폚릤튵탐튵쫽뻝퇐뺿췢냼뛔짺닺싊뗄펰쿬뗄싛컄,퓚뺭뗤뗄뎬풽뛔쫽짺닺몯쫽훐틽죫랴펳췢냼틲쯘뗄뇤솿,붨솢쇋탐튵짺닺몯쫽쒣탍,닉폃38룶릤튵탐튵2쓪뗄쫽뻝맀볆쒣탍ꆣ맘폚컒맺릤튵탐튵짺닺몯쫽뗄쒣탍,틑폐퇐뺿컞쫽ꆣ캪쇋퇐뺿퇐랢춶죫뛔짺닺싊뗄펰쿬,폐죋틽죫쇋랴펳퇐랢틲쯘뗄뇤솿;캪쇋퇐뺿FDI뛔짺닺싊뗄펰쿬,폐죋틽죫쇋랴펳FDI틲쯘뗄뇤솿;캪쇋퇐뺿훆뛈뛔짺닺싊뗄펰쿬,폐죋틽죫쇋랴펳훆뛈틲쯘뗄뇤솿;헢샯캪쇋퇐뺿췢냼뛔짺닺싊뗄펰쿬,뻍틽죫쇋랴펳췢냼틲쯘뗄뇤솿ꆣ뛁헟튻뚨믡컊:쓑뗀짺닺몯쫽쒣탍훐냼삨뗄뷢쫍뇤솿뿉틔죎죋짨뚨싰?쫇럱듦퓚튻룶ퟷ캪늻춬퇐뺿헟뗄릲춬웰뗣뗄ퟮꆰ튻냣ꆱ뗄릤튵탐튵짺닺몯쫽ퟜ쳥쒣탍?룼폐짵헟,탭뛠펦폃퇐뺿틔퇐뺿쒿뗄ퟷ캪쒣탍ퟜ쳥짨뚨뗄떼쿲,쿫퇐뺿쪲쎴,뻍짨뚨쪲쎴쒣탍ꆣ샽죧,튻욪퇐뺿컒맺훆뛈뇤잨폫뺭볃퓶뎤뗄맘쾵뗄싛컄,틔GDP캪놻뷢쫍뇤솿,뷶틔ꆰ훆뛈뇤잨횸쫽ꆱퟷ캪뷢쫍뇤솿,붨솢쇋튻풪뛔쫽쿟탔쒣탍,맀볆뷡맻쿔쪾,훆뛈뇤잨뛔폚GDP뗄떯탔쾵쫽캪211,벴훆뛈뇤잨뇤뮯1%,맺쓚짺닺ퟜ횵붫뇤뮯211%ꆣ퓙죧,튻욪퇐뺿컒맺횤좯쫐뎡랢햹뛔뫪맛뺭볃펰쿬뗄싛컄,캪쇋럖컶횤좯쫐뎡랢햹뛔닆헾쫕죫뗄펰쿬,틔컒맺닆헾쫕죫캪놻뷢쫍뇤솿,틔막욱죚뛮캪뷢쫍뇤솿,붨솢쇋튻풪쿟탔쒣탍,맀볆뷡맻쿔쪾,막욱죚뛮퓶볓1틚풪,닆헾쫕죫붫퓶볓41729틚풪ꆣ횮쯹틔돶쿖헢킩컊쳢뫍듭컳,짵훁쫇믄쏽뗄킦뮰,웤풭틲쫇늻뚮뗃캪쪲쎴뇘탫헽좷짨뚨ퟜ쳥쒣탍뫍죧뫎헽좷짨뚨ퟜ쳥쒣탍,캥놳쇋ퟜ쳥쒣탍뗄ꆰ캨튻탔ꆱ뫍ꆰ튻냣탔ꆱ풭퓲ꆣ쯹틔,볆솿뺭볃톧ퟜ쳥믘맩쒣탍뗄헽좷짨뚨,쫇볆솿뺭볃톧펦폃퇐뺿뗄잰쳡뫍믹뒡ꆣ죧뫎뷸탐볆솿뺭볃톧ퟜ쳥쒣탍뗄짨뚨,퓚볆솿뺭볃톧뷼80쓪뗄랢햹맽돌훐,뺭샺쇋쿈퇩샭싛떼쿲ꆢ쫽뻝맘쾵떼쿲뫍뺭볃맘쾵떼쿲뗄샺돌ꆣ쯄ꆢ볆솿뺭볃톧쒣탍ퟜ쳥짨뚨뗄ꆰ쿖쪵탔ꆱ풭퓲20쫀볍30쓪듺훁70쓪듺랢햹뗄뺭뗤볆솿뺭볃톧쒣탍,뺭볃샭싛퓚웤ퟜ쳥쒣탍짨뚨훐웰ퟅ떼쿲ퟷ폃ꆣ볆솿뺭볃톧룹뻝틑폐뗄뺭볃샭싛뷸탐ퟜ쳥쒣탍뗄짨뚨,붫쒣탍맀볆뫍쒣탍볬퇩뾴ퟷퟔ벺뗄훷튪죎컱ꆣ뺭볃샭싛뿉틔놻죏캪쫇잶죫볆솿뺭볃톧쒣탍뗄,쿠뛔뺭퇩쫽뻝뛸퇔뻟폐쿈퇩탔ꆣKlein(1974)횸돶,뺭볃샭싛쓜릻쳡돶튻킩폃쫽톧탎쪽뇭듯,좻뫳퓙듓볆솿뺭볃톧맛뗣볓틔볬퇩뗄볙짨,떫쫇뇘탫횸돶,톧풺쪽뗄뺭볃샭싛뷶뷶쫇붨솢볙짨뗄살풴횮튻ꆣ떫쫇,퓚뺭뗤볆솿뺭볃톧쒣탍뗄펦폃퇐뺿훐,횱뷓틀뻝뺭볃톧샭싛짨뚨ퟜ쳥쒣탍뗄쿖쿳쪮럖웕뇩,틲듋뺭뗤볆솿뺭볃톧쒣탍춨뎣놻죏캪쫇쿈퇩샭싛떼쿲뗄ꆣ뺭뗤볆솿뺭볃톧쒣탍샭싛랽램쳥쾵쫇믹폚뷘쏦쫽뻝붨릹뗄ꆣ뷘쏦쫽뻝뗄맘볼쳘헷쫇,쫽뻝살ퟔ폚쯦믺돩퇹,쫽뻝쮳탲폫볆솿럖컶컞맘,쯦믺돩퇹틾몬쇋듽뷧뚨뗄쳘뚨ퟜ쳥ꆣ퓚뺭뗤뗄Gauss2Markov볙짨뫍쯦믺죅뚯쿮럾듓헽첬럖늼볙짨쿂,믹폚살ퟔퟜ쳥뗄튻룶쯦믺돩퇹,내헕ퟮ듳뿉쓜탔믲ퟮ킡욫닮뗄춳볆램퓲,뛔ퟜ쳥쒣탍닎쫽뷸탐춳볆췆뛏,뗃떽맀볆뗄ퟜ쳥쒣탍,돆캪퇹놾믘맩쒣탍ꆣ평폚돩퇹뗄쯦믺탔,춳볆췆뛏좷뚨뗄닎쫽뫍ퟜ쳥쒣탍뚼뻟폐쯦믺탔,틲듋,볆솿뺭볃톧횪쪶쫇춳볆췆뛏좷뚨뗄믲좻횪쪶ꆣ횻튪Gauss2Markov볙짨틾몬뗄ퟜ쳥쒣탍ퟣ릻쿖쪵,횻튪퇹놾죝솿ퟣ릻듳,듳쫽뚨싉놣횤쇋맀볆솿뗄튻훂탔,벴붥뷼컞욫탔,뛸훐탄벫쿞뚨샭퓲캪듳퇹놾쿂쯦믺죅뚯쿮붥뷼럾듓헽첬럖늼쳡릩횧돖,늢놣횤쇋맀볆솿뗄붥뷼폐킧탔ꆣ폚쫇,맀볆뗃떽뗄ퟜ쳥쒣탍랽돌폫ퟔ퓚뗄풭탍랽돌뗄욫닮쫇뿉틔뫶싔뗄ꆣ틲듋,내헕볆솿럖컶맦퓲붨솢뗄횪쪶쫇뿉틀삵뗄,헢뻍맦뇜쇋쿝죫늻뿉횪싛뗄캣쿕ꆣ컊쳢퓚폚,쓜럱틔쿈퇩뗄뺭볃톧샭싛ퟷ캪볆솿뺭볃톧쒣탍ퟜ쳥짨뚨뗄떼쿲?듰낸쫇럱뚨뗄ꆣ틲캪퓚쯼쏇횮볤,훁짙듦퓚솽룶훷튪헏낭ꆣ뗚튻,헽춳뺭볃톧틔뺭볃죋볙짨뫍샭탔톡퓱캪웤샭싛쳥쾵뗄믹쪯,죎뫎튻훖샭싛뚼붨솢퓚뻶닟훷쳥쫇샭탔뗄뫍뻶닟탐캪쫇ퟮ폅뗄믹뒡횮짏ꆣ뛸볆솿뺭볃139
샮ퟓ쓎:볆솿뺭볃톧펦폃퇐뺿뗄ퟜ쳥믘맩쒣탍짨뚨톧쒣탍ퟜ쳥짨뚨뗄쒿뗄,쫇붨솢쓜릻쏨쫶죋쏇쪵볊맛달떽뗄뺭볃믮뚯횮훐퓌님ퟅ뗄튻냣맦싉뗄ퟜ쳥쒣탍,뫁컞틉컊,쪵볊뺭볃믮뚯볈늻쫇ꆰ샭탔ꆱ뗄,튲늻쫇ꆰퟮ폅ꆱ뗄ꆣ뗚뛾,헽춳뺭볃톧샭싛잿뗷ꆰ볲떥ꆱ,죏캪횻폐볲떥뗄샭싛닅쓜릻뷒쪾놾훊ꆣ뛸볆솿뺭볃톧쒣탍잡잡쿠랴,쯼잿뗷ꆰ튻냣ꆱ,뇘탫붫뺭볃믮뚯쯹짦벰뗄쯹폐틲쯘냼몬웤훐ꆣ쯹틔,벴쪹뺭볃톧샭싛쫇헽좷뗄,튲늻쓜뻝듋짨뚨볆솿뺭볃톧쒣탍,틲캪쯼짡웺쇋첫뛠쿔훸뗄틲쯘ꆣ춨쯗뗘붲,뺭볃톧샭싛쯹뷒쪾뗄쫇샭쿫뗄뺭볃쫀뷧,뛸볆솿뺭볃톧쒣탍쏨쫶뗄쫇쿖쪵뗄뺭볃쫀뷧ꆣ볆솿뺭볃톧쒣탍ퟜ쳥짨뚨,뇘탫ퟱ톭ꆰ쿖쪵탔ꆱ풭퓲ꆣ평폚헢킩헏낭,쿈퇩샭싛떼쿲뗄쒣탍ퟜ쳥짨뚨,훁짙듦퓚틔쿂컊쳢ꆣ뗚튻,뛔폚춬튻룶퇐뺿뛔쿳,늻춬뗄퇐뺿헟틀뻝늻춬뗄쿈퇩샭싛,뻍믡짨뚨늻춬뗄쒣탍ꆣ샽죧,틔뻓쏱쿻럑캪퇐뺿뛔쿳,럖뇰틀뻝뻸뛔쫕죫쿻럑샭싛ꆢ쿠뛔쫕죫쿻럑샭싛ꆢ돖뻃쫕죫쿻럑샭싛ꆢ짺쏼훜웚쿻럑샭싛틔벰뫏샭풤웚쿻럑샭싛,뻍믡톡퓱늻춬뗄뷢쫍뇤솿뫍늻춬뗄몯쫽탎쪽,짨뚨늻춬뗄뻓쏱쿻럑ퟜ쳥쒣탍ꆣ뗚뛾,쒣탍뻟폐뷡릹맘쾵늻뇤탔ꆣ쿈퇩뗄뺭볃샭싛죏캪쯼뻟폐ꆰ뢲룇탔ꆱ,뛔폚쯹폐뷘쏦룶쳥믲헟쯹폐쪱뗣웕뇩쫊폃,쯹틔쒣탍쯹뇭쿖뗄뇤솿횮볤뗄뷡릹맘쾵뛔폚쯹폐뷘쏦룶쳥믲헟쯹폐쪱뗣뚼쫇늻뇤뗄ꆣ뗚죽,웆뮵쇋쒣탍쯦믺죅뚯쿮뗄ꆰ풴짺탔ꆱꆣ쯦믺죅뚯쿮틑뺭늻뷶뷶냼몬컞쫽럇쿔훸틲쯘뗄펰쿬,뮹뇘탫냼몬놻뺭볃샭싛짡웺뗴뗄쿔훸틲쯘뗄펰쿬,쓇쎴,헫뛔ꆰ풴짺탔ꆱ쯦믺죅뚯쿮뗄Gauss2Markov볙짨뫍헽첬탔볙짨붫늻튻뚨놻싺ퟣꆣ뷸뛸붨솢퓚헢킩볙짨믹뒡짏뗄춳볆췆뛏붫늻뻟폐뿉뾿탔ꆣ퓚잰쏦쳡벰뗄뾯컯뗄튻욪쪵횤퇐뺿컒맺믵뇒-닺돶럇뛔돆펰쿬맘쾵뗄싛컄훐,ퟷ헟닉폃뛠풪STAR쒣탍퇐뺿컒맺믵뇒-닺돶맘쾵,쒣탍쾵춳훐냼삨뗄뇤솿폐뇭쪾닺돶뗄쪵볊릤튵닺돶횸쫽ꆢ뇭쪾믵뇒뗄M1뫍뇭쪾볛룱뗄쿻럑볛룱횸쫽,뛸믵뇒쇷춨쯙뛈놻뫏샭뗘쪡싔쇋ꆣ쿔좻,죧듋톡퓱쒣탍쾵춳뗄뇤솿,쯹틀뻝뗄쫇뺭뗤뗄믵뇒탨쟳샭싛ꆣ쯤좻싛컄닉폃쇋쿈뷸뗄쒣탍랽램뫍럖컶벼쫵,죋쏇죔좻튪컊:뺭뗤뗄믵뇒탨쟳샭싛쫇럱랴펳컒맺뗄쪵볊?틔듋ퟷ캪쏨쫶믵뇒-닺돶맘쾵뗄ퟜ쳥쒣탍짨뚨뗄틀뻝쫇럱뿉뾿?내헕뺭볃톧훐뺭뗤뗄믵뇒탨쟳샭싛,믵뇒탨쟳쾵춳뷶냼몬믵뇒탨쟳솿ꆢ뺭볃믮뚯ퟜ솿ꆢ볛룱뫍믵뇒쇷춨쯙뛈,내헕샭싛떼쿲,룃싛컄훐짨뚨뗄ퟜ쳥쒣탍쫇헽좷뗄ꆣ떫쫇,죋쏇뚼횪뗀,뺭볃톧퓚쯼뗄랢햹맽돌훐,돶쿖쇋탭뛠믵뇒탨쟳샭싛,쓇쎴늻춬뗄퇐뺿헟틀뻝늻춬뗄샭싛뻍뿉틔짨뚨늻춬뗄ퟜ쳥쒣탍ꆣ룼캪훘튪뗄쫇,싛컄퇐뺿뗄쫇ꆰ컒맺ꆱ뗄믵뇒폫닺돶횮볤뗄맘쾵,뛸퓚컒맺뗄믵뇒탨쟳쾵춳훐,쿠뮥폐맘솪뗄틲쯘풶늻횻쫇싛컄쯹짦벰뗄3룶ꆣ쓇쎴,싛컄훐뗄쒣탍뻍늻쫇튻룶ꆰ튻냣ꆱ뗄쒣탍,쒣탍쯦믺죅뚯쿮튲늻뷶뷶냼몬럇쿔훸틲쯘뗄펰쿬,뿉쓜냼몬듳솿뗄ꆰ쒣탍짨뚨컳닮ꆱ,Gauss2Markov볙짨뫍헽첬탔볙짨붫놻웆뮵ꆣ퓚쇭튻욪맘폚죋쏱뇒믣싊뗄뻹뫢ꆢ쪧뗷ꆢ늨뚯폫뗷헻뗄싛컄훐,ퟷ헟춨맽샭싛럖컶뫍뺭퇩볬퇩,뗃떽쏨쫶쪵볊믣싊(reer)폫쿠뛔릩룸(su)ꆢ쿠뛔탨쟳(de)횮볤뎤웚뻹뫢맘쾵뗄쒣탍:reer=-0133su+0126de+4159,늢퓚듋믹뒡짏붨솢쇋랴펳뛌웚뇤뮯횮볤맘쾵뗄컳닮탞헽쒣탍ꆣ쿔좻,뺭뗤뗄믣싊뻶뚨샭싛퓚룃쒣탍ퟜ쳥짨뚨훐웰쇋떼쿲ퟷ폃ꆣ죋쏇춬퇹믡컊:뺭뗤뗄믣싊뻶뚨샭싛쫇럱랴펳컒맺뗄쪵볊?틔듋ퟷ캪톡퓱쒣탍뇤솿뗄틀뻝쫇럱뿉뾿?뛔볆솿뺭볃톧쒣탍ퟜ쳥짨뚨뗄쿈퇩샭싛떼쿲뗄엺움늢늻틢캶ퟅ췪좫럱뚨뺭볃톧샭싛퓚쒣탍짨뚨훐뗄ퟷ폃ꆣ쏨쫶샭쿫뺭볃쫀뷧뗄뺭볃톧샭싛뿉틔횸떼컒쏇헽좷럖컶쿖쪵뺭볃쫀뷧뗄뚯솦톧맘쾵;볲뷠뗄뺭볃톧샭싛훁짙뷒쪾쇋ꆰ튻냣ꆱ뺭볃쾵춳훐뗄튻늿럖뺭볃맘쾵ꆣ뺭볃톧샭싛붫ퟷ폃폚뺭볃맘쾵럖컶,뛸늻쫇횱뷓ퟷ폃폚쒣탍ퟜ쳥짨뚨ꆣ믹폚쯦믺돩퇹뷘쏦쫽뻝붨릹뗄뺭뗤볆솿뺭볃톧쒣탍놻듳솿뗘펦폃폚믹폚쪱볤탲쇐쫽뻝뗄뫪맛뺭볃럖컶,쯼쯹듸살뗄컊쳢돽쇋짏쫶뗄죽쳵췢,뮹뇘탫볓짏솽쳵:뗚튻,죧맻ퟜ쳥쒣탍훐냼몬뗄쪱볤탲쇐쫇럇욽컈뗄,쯦믺죅뚯쿮붫캥놳Gauss2Markov볙짨;뗚뛾,쪱볤탲쇐쫽뻝뗄탲쇐쿠맘탔웆뮵쇋뺭뗤쒣탍삵틔붨솢뗄맘볼볙뚨ꆪꆪꆪ쯦믺돩퇹볙뚨ꆣ헢킩붫뷸튻늽웆뮵쒣탍뺫쏜뗄쫽톧믹뒡ꆣ140
2008쓪뗚8웚컥ꆢ볆솿뺭볃톧쒣탍ퟜ쳥짨뚨뗄ꆰ춳볆볬퇩뇘튪탔ꆱ풭퓲퓚뛾햽틔뫳뗄뛾쪮뛠쓪훐,평폚떱쪱훷쇷뗄뺭볃샭싛,쳘뇰쫇뫪맛뺭볃샭싛폫쿖쪵뺭볃믮뚯횮볤뷏뫃뗄튻훂탔,틔쿈퇩샭싛캪떼쿲뗄뺭뗤볆솿뺭볃톧쒣탍뗃떽쇋톸쯙뗄삩헅뫍맣랺뗄펦폃ꆣ떫쫇,뺭뗤쒣탍뛔20쫀볍70쓪듺뺭볃쮥췋뫍훍헍뗄풤닢뫍헾닟럖컶뗄쪧킧,틽살쇋훸쏻뗄ꆰ슬뾨쮹엺에ꆱꆣLucas(1976)듓쒣탍뷡릹닎쫽쯦쪱볤뇤뮯뗄쿖쪵돶랢,횸돶쪹폃볆솿뺭볃쒣탍풤닢캴살뺭볃헾닟뗄뇤뮯쯹닺짺뗄킧펦쫇늻뿉탅뗄ꆣSargent(1976)퓲틔믵뇒헾닟캪샽,죏캪뺭뗤뷡릹쒣탍뛔폚움볛헾닟쯆뫵쫇컞쓜캪솦뗄ꆣSims(1980)횸돶,틔쿈퇩샭싛캪떼쿲짨뚨뗄뷡릹쒣탍쪵볊짏쫇뛔쒣탍쪩볓쇋탭뛠풼쫸,뛸헢킩풼쫸쫇늻뿉탅뗄,틲듋붨틩닉폃틔쫽뻝캪믹뒡뗄쿲솿ퟔ믘맩(VAR)쒣탍,듓뛸뇜쏢뷡릹풼쫸컊쳢ꆣ슬뾨쮹엺에듓뇭쏦짏뾴쫇뛔뷡릹쒣탍뫍쒣탍뷡릹늻뇤탔뗄엺에,뛸쪵훊짏쫇뛔쒣탍ퟜ쳥짨뚨쿈퇩샭싛떼쿲뗄엺에,쯼횱뷓떼훂쇋볆솿뺭볃톧ퟜ쳥쒣탍짨뚨쿲쫽뻝맘쾵떼쿲ꆣ믹폚뷘쏦쫽뻝뗄뺭뗤쒣탍쏦쇙쿈퇩샭싛폫뺭볃쿖쪵뗄췑뷚,뛸놻웈룼뛠뗘뛸틀삵쫽뻝맘쾵,틀삵춳볆럖컶ꆣ뛔폚뷘쏦쫽뻝뗄춳볆럖컶훷튪쫇쿠맘럖컶,튻횱놻죋쏇쫓캪쒣탍ퟜ쳥짨뚨뗄튻훖릤뻟,믲헟폃폚뇤솿뗄톡퓱,믲헟폃폚뇤솿횮볤맘쾵뗄짨뚨ꆣ떫쫇,쿠맘맘쾵횻쫇틲맻맘쾵뗄뇘튪쳵볾,뛸럇돤럖쳵볾,헢틑뺭캪죋쏇쯹쫬횪ꆣ퓚뺭볃탐캪짏뫁컞맘쾵뗄뇤솿,퓚쫽뻝짏뿉쓜쿔쪾뫜잿뗄쿠맘탔ꆣ쇭췢,쿠맘맘쾵퇚룇쇋횱뷓펰쿬뫍볤뷓펰쿬뗄쟸뇰,튲뿉쓜떼훂뇤솿뗄듭컳톡퓱ꆣ믹폚쪱볤탲쇐쫽뻝뗄볆솿뺭볃톧쒣탍평폚듦퓚럇욽컈탔뫍탲쇐쿠맘탔,웤춳볆럖컶샭싛랽램뗃떽쇋톸쯙뗄랢햹,튻랽쏦캪쒣탍ퟜ쳥짨뚨쳡릩쇋잿듳뗄릤뻟,쇭튻랽쏦폖붫쒣탍짨뚨틽죫뷶뷶틀삵쫽뻝뗄웧춾ꆣ쫽뻝뗄쪱볤탲쇐탔웆뮵쇋볆솿뺭볃톧뺲첬쒣탍뗄쯦믺돩퇹볙뚨,좡쿻쇋퇹놾뗣횮볤뗄뛀솢탔,퇹놾뗣붫뻟폐탲쇐쿠맘탔ꆣ죧맻탲쇐쿠맘탔늻쓜ퟣ릻뿬뗘쟷폚쇣,퓚춳볆췆뛏훐랢믓맘볼ퟷ폃뗄듳쫽뚨싉ꆢ훐탄벫쿞뚨샭뗈벫쿞램퓲좱랦펦폃믹뒡ꆣ횻폐뛔싺ퟣ붥뷸늻쿠맘뗄킭랽닮욽컈탲쇐,닅뿉틔펦폃믹폚뷘쏦쫽뻝뗄춳볆췆뛏랽램,붨솢쪱볤탲쇐쒣탍ꆣ헢퇹,킭랽닮욽컈탔뫍붥뷸늻쿠맘탔퓚쪱볤탲쇐럖컶훐냧퇝쇋튻룶럇뎣훘튪뗄뷇즫,캪쪱볤탲쇐럖컶쫊폃듳쫽뚨싉뫍훐탄벫쿞뚨샭뒴퓬쇋쳵볾,쳦듺쇋뷘쏦쫽뻝럖컶훐뗄쯦믺돩퇹볙뚨(Wooldridge,2003)ꆣ떫쫇뺭볃쿖쪵훐뗄쯦믺맽돌뚼뫜쓑럻뫏헢킩쳵볾ꆣ퓚늻쫊폃듳쫽뚨싉뫍훐탄벫쿞뚨샭뗄쟩뿶쿂,뺭뗤쒣탍뗄볆솿럖컶뎣믡닺짺웛욭탔뗄뷡싛ꆣCliveGranger(1974)뛔럇욽컈쯦믺뇤솿믘맩뗄쾵춳럖컶뇭쏷,컞싛쯦믺뇤솿볤쫇럱듦퓚틲맻맘쾵,헢킩쯦믺뇤솿뗄늻욽컈탔풽룟,믘맩랽돌쓢뫏돌뛈뻍풽룟,랢짺쏽컳믘맩뗄뿉쓜탔뻍풽듳ꆣ헢쫇믹폚쪱볤탲쇐뷸탐춳볆췆뛏뇘탫뿧풽뗄헏낭ꆣ뛔냼몬럇욽컈쯦믺뇤솿뗄쒣탍뗄쏽컳믘맩,틽돶솽룶컊쳢,튻쫇쫇럱듦퓚헢퇹뗄뿉쓜,뿉틔춳볆좷뚨뻟폐뫣뎣맘쾵뗄럇욽컈쯦믺뇤솿횮볤뗄쒣탍;뛾쫇죧뫎뒦샭럇욽컈쯦믺맽돌,캪펦폃춳볆랽램붨솢쒣탍뒴퓬쳵볾ꆣ뛔뫳헟,춨맽닮럖램뿉틔냑늻욽컈뗄룟뷗떥헻(integration)맽돌뮯캪욽컈뗄쇣뷗떥헻맽돌ꆣ뛔잰헟,벴쯦믺맽돌킭헻(cointegration)ꆣ폚쫇,뛔쪱볤탲쇐뗄럇욽컈탔뗄쪶뇰폫뒦샭,벴떥캻룹볬퇩,퓚럇욽컈쯦믺맽돌횮볤붨솢뫣뎣뗄쫽뻝맘쾵,벴킭헻볬퇩,돉캪쒣탍ퟜ쳥짨뚨뗄훷튪죎컱ꆣ헢퇹,듸살뗄탂뗄컊쳢쫇,볆솿럖컶뗄샭싛믹뒡ꆪꆪꆪ닺짺쪱볤탲쇐쫽뻝뗄뚯솦톧맽돌믲ퟜ쳥뷧뚨랴뛸놻뫶싔쇋ꆣ췑샫닺짺쫽뻝뗄뚯솦톧맽돌첸쯦믺맽돌뗄욽컈탔쫇쎻폐틢틥뗄ꆣ뻍킭헻맘쾵뛸퇔,쯦믺맽돌뗄쫽뻝킭헻맘쾵쫇뷡맻,뛸늻쫇풭틲;평폚뺭볃쿖쪵뗄쾵춳맘솪탔,싺ퟣ춳볆킭헻맘쾵뗄뇤솿뫜뛠,떫쫇뿉틔쓉죫믹폚뚯솦톧맘쾵붨솢뗄뚯첬뻹뫢쒣탍뗄뇤솿늢늻뛠ꆣ틲듋,킭헻맘쾵볬퇩쫇좷뚨쒣탍뚯첬쿠죝뗄뇘튪쳵볾,떫늻쫇돤럖쳵볾ꆣ뇘탫퓚뚯솦톧맘쾵럖컶믹뒡횮짏,닅쓜폐킧랢믓킭헻볬퇩뗄ퟷ폃ꆣ141
샮ퟓ쓎:볆솿뺭볃톧펦폃퇐뺿뗄ퟜ쳥믘맩쒣탍짨뚨뻙튻룶뇈뷏벫뛋뗄샽ퟓꆣ퓚튻쿮맘폚컒맺돇헲뻓쏱쫕죫뗄퇐뺿훐,ퟷ헟캪쇋볬퇩돇헲뻓쏱쫕죫뛔얩듥뻓쏱쿻럑듦퓚펰쿬,뛔돇헲뻓쏱죋뻹쫕죫뫍얩듥뻓쏱죋뻹쿻럑솽룶쪱볤탲쇐쫽뻝뷸탐쇋퇏룱뗄춳볆럖컶ꆣ쫗쿈뷸탐떥캻룹볬퇩,랢쿖쯼쏇뚼쫇2뷗떥헻탲쇐ꆣ좻뫳뷸탐Granger틲맻맘쾵볬퇩,랢쿖퓚5%뗄쿔훸탔쮮욽짏,돇헲뻓쏱죋뻹쫕죫쫇얩듥뻓쏱죋뻹쿻럑뗄Granger풭틲ꆣퟮ뫳뷸탐킭헻볬퇩,랢쿖쯼쏇횮볤듦퓚(2,2)뷗킭헻ꆣ폚쫇뗃떽쇋쏨쫶뛾헟횮볤뎤웚뻹뫢맘쾵뗄쒣탍:얩듥뻓쏱죋뻹쿻럑=558107+011817돇헲뻓쏱죋뻹쫕죫ꆣ룼뷸튻늽횸돶,돇헲뻓쏱죋뻹쫕죫쳡룟100풪,뿉틔쪹뗃얩듥뻓쏱죋뻹쿻럑쳡룟18117풪ꆣ헢룶뷡싛쿔좻쫇듭컳뗄,떫쫇쯹폐춳볆볬퇩좴쫇퇏룱뗄ꆣ컊쳢퓚쓄샯?뛔얩듥뻓쏱쿻럑탐캪뷸탐럖컶,늻쓑랢쿖얩듥뻓쏱쫕죫쫇ퟮ훷튪뗄펰쿬틲쯘ꆣ붫얩듥뻓쏱죋뻹쫕죫틽죫쒣탍,죝틗랢쿖,돇헲뻓쏱쫕죫늢늻쿔훸ꆣ틲듋,탨튪헽좷죏쪶ꆢ뛔듽춳볆럖컶퓚볆솿뺭볃톧쒣탍ퟜ쳥짨뚨훐뗄ퟷ폃ꆣ퓚돤럖럖컶ퟜ쳥풭탍,헽좷짨뚨틲쯘ퟩ뫏횮뫳,평폚뛔쪵쳥횮볤뚯솦톧맘쾵뗄죏쪶폀풶쓑틔듯떽췪놸뗄뺳뷧,죋쏇뫜쓑ힼ좷뗘좷뚨쒣탍뗄탎쪽ꆣ떥캻룹볬퇩뫍킭헻볬퇩샭싛,룸돶쇋첽쯷쳘뚨틲쯘ퟩퟜ쳥쒣탍뗄폐킧릤뻟ꆣ헢뻍쫇볆솿뺭볃톧쒣탍ퟜ쳥짨뚨뗄ꆰ춳볆볬퇩뇘튪탔ꆱ풭퓲ꆣ쇹ꆢ볆솿뺭볃톧쒣탍ퟜ쳥짨뚨뗄ꆰ뺭볃훷쳥뚯솦톧맘쾵떼쿲ꆱ풭퓲죧잰쯹쫶,볆솿뺭볃톧믹폚춳볆돩퇹탎돉뗄뺭퇩쫽뻝,퓋폃쯦믺쫽톧럖컶릤뻟췪돉믲좻횪쪶뗄붨릹,늢내헕춳볆틢틥뗄뇪ힼ뷸탐움볛,퓚믘뇜쇋택?훊틉뗄춬쪱,튲맦뇜쇋쿝죫늻뿉횪싛뗄캣쿕ꆣ떫볆솿뺭볃톧ퟷ캪춳볆췆뛏뗄횪쪶,쿱죎뫎웤쯻뿆톧횪쪶튻퇹,펦떱럻뫏뿆톧뗄믹놾풭퓲ꆪꆪꆪ뛀솢폚퇐뺿헟ꆢ뛀솢폚퇹놾ꆢ뻟폐뎬풽쳘뚨쪱볤뫍뿕볤뗄쒳훖돌뛈뗄뇘좻탔뫍웕뇩탔ꆣ춳볆췆뛏싟벭뗄퇏쏜탔,횻쓜뺡뿉쓜럀횹퓚춳볆췆뛏맽돌훐돶쿖탂뗄듭컳,떫늢늻ퟣ틔캪볆솿뺭볃톧횪쪶쳡릩틀뻝ꆣ뛔볆솿뺭볃톧횪쪶틀뻝뗄ힷ컊,죔좻튪쯝벰춳볆췆뛏뗄잰쳡ꆪꆪꆪퟜ쳥짨뚨ꆣ틲듋,ퟜ쳥짨뚨맽돌뗄뿉뾿탔,뻶뚨쇋볆솿뺭볃톧횪쪶뗄뿉뾿탔ꆣ럫?룕(2007)횸돶,뛔볆솿뺭볃톧쒣탍ퟜ쳥짨뚨뗄쳖싛,뇘탫쫗쿈쏷좷솽룶컊쳢ꆣ뗚튻,튪좷뚨뗄늻쫇뺭볃훷쳥쓚퓚뗄놾훊틢틥뗄쫴탔,뛸쫇뺭볃훷쳥횮볤뗄맘쾵틢틥뗄쫴탔ꆣ뗚뛾,튪좷뚨뗄쫇훷쳥횮볤뗄뚯솦톧맘쾵,늻쫇ퟷ캪훷쳥뺭볃믮뚯뷡맻뗄뺭볃뇤솿횮볤뗄쫽뻝맘쾵ꆣ헢뻍쫇볆솿뺭볃톧쒣탍ퟜ쳥짨뚨뗄ꆰ뺭볃훷쳥뚯솦톧맘쾵떼쿲ꆱ풭퓲ꆣ뛸쫂쪵짏,컞싛쿈퇩샭싛떼쿲,뮹쫇쫽뻝맘쾵떼쿲,볆솿뺭볃톧쒣탍ퟜ쳥짨뚨쯹뫶쫓뗄헽쫇뺭볃훷쳥횮볤뗄뚯솦톧맘쾵ꆣ볆솿뺭볃톧쒣탍럖컶뗄쒿뗄늻쫇캪쇋좷뚨퓚훷쳥맘쾵틢틥짏컞쯹횸뗄뺭볃뇤솿횮볤뗄맘쾵ꆣ뺭볃뇤솿벰쿠맘쫽뻝쫇뺭볃훷쳥믮뚯뗄뷡맻,췑샫훷쳥뮥뚯맘쾵붨릹뗄뇤솿,늻맽쫇뒿듢뗄쫽ퟖꆣ볆솿뺭볃톧쒣탍럖컶뗄쒿뗄쫇캪쇋랢쿖쯜퓬헻룶뺭볃쫀뷧뗄뺭볃훷쳥횮볤뗄뮥뚯맦싉ꆣ듓맘쾵싛뗄뷇뛈뾴,훷쳥뗄죎뫎탐캪,뚼펦퓚훷쳥뫍웤짭뒦뗄뮷뺳횮볤톰헒풭틲ꆣ헽쿱ퟔ좻뿆톧뗄뚯솦톧퇐뺿튻퇹,컯쳥퓋뚯ힴ첬랢짺뇤뮯뗄룹놾풭틲쫇컯쳥횮뮷뺳폫컯쳥횮볤뗄ퟷ폃솦ꆣ춬퇹뗘,뺭볃훷쳥랢짺죎뫎탐캪,뚼뇘좻평훷쳥폫웤짭뒦뗄뮷뺳횮볤뗄ퟷ폃틽웰ꆣ뺭볃훷쳥폫웤짭뒦뗄뮷뺳횮볤뗄뚯솦톧맽돌,쫇헦헽뗄쫽뻝짺돉맽돌ꆣ폫뺭볃훷쳥뗄쳘뚨뚯솦톧맽돌쿠맘뗄쫽뻝,붫캪쿠펦뚯솦톧맘쾵뗄쏨쫶쳡릩뺭퇩믹뒡ꆣ틔뺭볃훷쳥폫뮷뺳횮볤뗄뚯솦톧맘쾵럖컶캪믹뒡뫍잰쳡,믹폚룃뚯솦톧맽돌짺돉뗄쫽뻝,틔쫽뻝춳볆럖컶캪뇘튪쳵볾,퇩횤좷뚨뗄뺭볃훷쳥폫뮷뺳뗄뮥뚯맘쾵,헽쫇볆솿뺭볃톧ퟜ쳥쒣탍쯹튪뷧뚨뗄틲맻맘쾵ꆣ횻폐뚯솦톧맘쾵뗄샭싛럖컶,쎻폐믹폚춳볆쿠맘탔뗄뺭퇩횧돖,쫇컞램좷죏헢퇹뗄뚯솦톧맘쾵뗄ꆣ춬퇹,횻폐쫽뻝맘쾵뗄춳볆럖컶,쎻폐뻟폐솼뫃뗄릫뛈탔뗄뚯솦톧맘쾵샭싛뿲볜,믡쪹춳볆럖컶뷸죫웧춾ꆣ헽쫇퓚헢룶틢틥짏,믹폚훷쳥뚯솦톧맘쾵뗄볆솿뺭볃톧쒣탍ퟜ쳥짨뚨,뿉틔쪵쿖쿈퇩샭싛떼쿲뫍쫽뻝맘쾵떼쿲뗄ퟛ뫏ꆣHendry(1994)쯤좻쎻폐쳡돶ꆰ뺭볃훷쳥뚯솦톧맘쾵떼쿲ꆱ,떫쫇쯻닻쫶뗄듓쫽뻝짺돉142
2008쓪뗚8웚맽돌뺭맽튻쾵쇐풼뮯뗃떽ퟔ믘맩럖늼훍뫳쒣탍,퓙뺭맽튻쾵쇐볲뮯뗃떽컳닮탞헽쒣탍뗄붨쒣탍맽돌,틔벰볬퇩ꆢ볬퇩,퓙볬퇩뗄랽램싛,붻쳦쪹폃뺭볃샭싛뫍쫽뻝맘쾵,틑뺭쳥쿖쇋ퟜ쳥쒣탍짨뚨뗄ꆰ뺭볃훷쳥뚯솦톧맘쾵떼쿲ꆱꆣ뿉틔폃춼2쟥컺뗘쏨쫶쿈퇩뗄뺭볃샭싛ꆢ쫽뻝뗄춳볆럖컶ꆢ뺭볃훷쳥뗄뚯솦톧맘쾵폫볆솿뺭볃톧ퟜ쳥쒣탍횮볤뗄맘쾵ꆣ퓚헢샯,쿈퇩뗄뺭볃샭싛늢늻횱뷓ퟷ캪ퟜ쳥쒣탍짨뚨뗄떼쿲,뛸쫇횸떼뺭볃훷쳥뗄뚯솦톧맘쾵럖컶;쫽뻝뗄춳볆럖컶튲늻횱뷓ퟷ캪ퟜ쳥쒣탍짨뚨뗄떼쿲,뛸쫇뛔뺭볃훷쳥뗄뚯솦톧맘쾵뷸탐볬퇩;뛸뛔ퟜ쳥쒣탍짨뚨웰횱뷓떼쿲ퟷ폃뗄,쫇뺭볃훷쳥뗄뚯솦톧맘쾵ꆣ틔뺭볃훷쳥뗄뚯솦톧맘쾵캪떼쿲짨뚨뗄ퟜ쳥믘맩쒣탍,뫁컞틉컊싺ퟣ짏쫶ꆰ쿖쪵탔ꆱ풭퓲뫍ꆰ춳볆볬퇩뇘튪탔ꆱ풭퓲,떫쫇쯼쫇럱싺ퟣꆰ캨튻탔ꆱ뫍ꆰ튻냣탔ꆱ풭퓲,죔좻탨튪볬퇩ꆣ볬퇩뗄ힼ퓲뻍쫇ퟜ쳥쒣탍쯦믺죅뚯쿮뗄풴짺탔뫍헽첬탔ꆣ죧맻쒣탍짨뚨헽좷,쯦믺죅뚯쿮쯹냼몬뗄뷶뷶쫇럇쿔훸틲쯘뗄펰쿬,춼2ꆡ샭싛ꆢ쫽뻝ꆢ뚯솦톧맘쾵폫ퟜ쳥쒣탍ꆡ헢퇹뗄쯦믺죅뚯쫇풴짺뗄ꆣ횻튪놣횤쯦믺죅뚯쿮뗄풴짺탔,쯼쯹냼몬뗄틲쯘싺ퟣ뛀솢탔,틔벰뛔쯦믺죅뚯뗄펰쿬뻹퓈킡뗄쳵볾,룹뻝훐탄벫쿞뚨샭,헢퇹뗄쯦믺죅뚯쿮럾듓헽첬럖늼ꆣ쯹틔,퓚뚯솦톧맘쾵떼쿲뗄볆솿뺭볃톧쒣탍ퟜ쳥짨뚨훐,훐탄벫쿞뚨샭죔좻뻓폚쪮럖훘튪뗄뗘캻ꆣ뻍훐탄벫쿞뚨샭뗄쫊폃쳵볾뛸퇔,쒣탍뗄뚯솦톧맘쾵펦떱돤럖ힼ좷,횻폐ퟜ쳥쒣탍ퟣ릻ힼ좷,닅뿉틔붫웤쯻틲쯘맩폚늻쿔훸뗄뚯솦톧맘쾵,뛸쓉죫풴짺뗄쯦믺죅뚯쿮,닅쓜쫊폃훐탄벫쿞뚨샭ꆣ웟ꆢ뷡싛폫웴쪾놾컄듓볆솿뺭볃톧ퟜ쳥쒣탍짨뚨뗄죎컱뫍쒿뇪돶랢,춨맽뛔볆솿뺭볃톧펦폃퇐뺿훐웕뇩듦퓚뗄ퟜ쳥쒣탍짨뚨퇐뺿쒿뗄떼쿲뗄럖컶폫움볛,쳡돶ퟜ쳥쒣탍짨뚨뗄ꆰ캨튻탔ꆱ뫍ꆰ튻냣탔ꆱ풭퓲;춨맽뛔뺭뗤볆솿뺭볃톧쒣탍쿈퇩샭싛떼쿲뗄럖컶폫움볛,쳡돶ퟜ쳥쒣탍짨뚨뗄ꆰ쿖쪵탔ꆱ풭퓲;춨맽뛔쿖듺쪱볤탲쇐쒣탍쫽뻝떼쿲뗄럖컶폫움볛,쳡돶ퟜ쳥쒣탍짨뚨뗄ꆰ춳볆볬퇩뇘튪탔ꆱ풭퓲;ퟮ뫳,쳡돶볆솿뺭볃톧쒣탍ퟜ쳥짨뚨뗄ꆰ뺭볃훷쳥뚯솦톧맘쾵떼쿲ꆱ풭퓲뫍뿲볜ꆣ쿔좻,ퟜ쳥믘맩쒣탍뗄짨뚨,쫇볆솿뺭볃톧펦폃퇐뺿뗄쫗쿈뗄뫍ퟮ훘튪뗄죎컱ꆣ떫쫇,퓚쒿잰뗄볆솿뺭볃톧뷌뿆쫩뫍뿎돌뷌톧훐,쪼훕붫쒣탍맀볆뫍볬퇩ퟷ캪ퟮ훷튪뗄쓚죝,벸뫵늻짦벰ퟜ쳥믘맩쒣탍뗄짨뚨ꆣ뿉볻,듓룄짆볆솿뺭볃톧뷌뿆쫩뫍뿎돌뷌톧쓚죝죫쫖,붫ퟜ쳥믘맩쒣탍짨뚨샭싛쓉죫웤훐,쫇컒쏇뇘탫뷸탐뗄ퟮ벱웈뗄릤ퟷꆣ닎뾼컄쿗럫?룕,2007ꆶ:횪쪶뫎틔뿉쓜ꆪꆪꆪ듓뺭볃톧뗄맘쾵싛쿲뾴ꆷ,뺭볃뿆톧돶냦짧ꆣ샮ퟓ쓎,2007ꆶ:볆솿뺭볃톧쒣탍랽램싛뗄죴룉컊쳢ꆷꆶ,뺭볃톧뚯첬ꆷ뗚10웚ꆣGranger,,P.,1974,ꆰSpuriousRegressionsinEconometricsꆱ,JournalofEconometrics,,.,2003,EconometricAnalysis(5E),PrenticeHall,,.,1994,DynamicEconometrics,,.,1974,ATextbookofEconometrics(2E),Prentice2Hall,,.,1976,ꆰEconometricPolicyEvaluation:ACritiqueꆱ,JournalofMonetaryEconomics,SupplementarySeries,1(2).Wooldridge,.,2003,IntroductoryEconometrics(2E),
샮ퟓ쓎:볆솿뺭볃톧펦폃퇐뺿뗄ퟜ쳥믘맩쒣탍짨뚨TheSpecificationofPopulationRegressionModelsinEconometricApplicationStudiesLiZinai(SchoolofEconomicsandManagement,TsinghuaUniversity)Abstract:Takingthetargetofeconometricpopulationmodelsspecificationasthestartingpoint,thepaperanalysesandevaluatesthestudytargetguidance,theeconomicstheoryguidanceandthedataguidanceofthepopulationmodelsspecification,,thepopulationmodelmustbesole,generalandrealistic,,thepaperraisesanewtheory,:EconometricModels;PopulationRegressionModels;EconomicsTheoryGuidance;DataGuidance;DynamicRelationshipGuidanceJELClassification:C100,C500,A200(퓰죎뇠벭:쯉ꆡ쒾)(킣뛔:쿾ꆡ언)(짏뷓뗚135튳)Soltow,L.,1960,ꆰTheDistributionofIncomeRelatedtoChangesintheDistributionsofEducation,Age,andOccupationꆱ,ReviewofEconomicsandStatistics,,(Nov.),ꆪ,I.,2000,ꆰDecomposingtheGiniandtheVariationCoefficientsbyIncomeSourcesandIncomeRecipientsꆱ,WorkingPaper,inLabourInstituteforEconomicResearch,Finland,Oct..Vinod,,ꆰMeasurementofEconomicDistancebetweenBlacksandWhitesꆱ,JournalofBusiness&EconomicStatistics,,(Jan.),ꆪ,Shujie,1999,ꆰOntheDecompositionofGiniCoefficientsbyPopulationClassandIncomeSource,aSpreadsheetAproachandApplicationꆱ,AppliedEconomics,,ꆪ,S.,1994,ꆰEconomicDistanceandOverlappingofDistributionsꆱ,JournalofEconometrics,,ꆪ,S.,1998,ꆰMorethanaDozenAlternativeWaysofSpellingGiniꆱ,inResearchonEconomicInequality,,JAIPress,ꆪ,B.,2007,ꆰUnit2ConsistentDecomposableInequalityMeasuresꆱ,Economica,,issue293,ꆪ(SchoolofPublicAdministration,RenminUniversityofChina)Abstract:,,,,:Gini2coefficient;Between2groupMeasureofInequality;WelfareLossesJELClassification:D63,D31,C43,O15(퓰죎뇠벭:뺣ꆡ퇒)(킣뛔:ퟓꆡ)144
