ꆡꆡꆡꆡ쏱펪짏쫐릫쮾뗄뺭펪벨킧ꆢ쫐뎡볛횵뫍훎샭뷡릹헅뾡쾲ꆡ헅ꆡ뮪3ꆡꆡ쓚죝쳡튪ꆡ놾컄틔뮦짮솽뗘뗄짏쫐릫쮾캪퇐뺿뛔쿳,쫗쿈뇈뷏쏱펪웳튵폫럇쏱펪웳튵퓚뺭펪벨킧짏뗄닮틬,좻뫳듓릫쮾훎샭뗄뷇뛈짮죫럖컶떼훂헢튻닮틬뗄훷튪풭틲,ퟜ뷡쏱펪웳튵훎샭뷡릹뗄쳘헷뫍맦싉ꆣ퇐뺿랢쿖,쏱펪웳튵퓚퓋펪ힴ뿶ꆢ펮샻ꆢ놾뷡릹뫍쫐뎡움볛쯄듳벨킧랽쏦뗄뇭쿖뚼폅폚럇쏱펪웳튵;떫쫇,평폚쏱펪뗄쯘훊솼?늻웫,잱퓚뗄럧쿕튲뷏룟ꆣ쏱펪뫍럇쏱펪퓚벨킧짏뗄닮틬훷튪쫇평웤릫쮾훎샭믺훆킧싊뗄닮틬퓬돉뗄ꆣ횮뫳,컒쏇닉좡퇏룱뗄볆솿믘맩랽램뷸탐횱뷓뫍볤뷓뗄뺭퇩볬퇩,랢쿖쏱펪퓚막좨벯훐돌뛈ꆢ웤쯻듳막뚫뛔뗚튻듳막뚫뗄훆풼솦ꆢ룟벶맜샭죋풱돖막뇈샽뫍뚭쫂믡훐췢늿뚭쫂뇈샽쯄듳믺훆짏뚼뷏럇쏱펪뫏샭벰폐킧ꆣퟮ뫳,놾컄뗄헾닟몬틥캪:뷶뷶듓뿘막좨짏붫쿖폐맺폐웳튵룄훆돉쏱펪웳튵풶풶늻릻,룼캪훘튪뗄쫇룄뇤웳튵뗄훎샭뷡릹ꆣ맘볼듊ꆡ짏쫐릫쮾ꆡ벨킧ꆡ훎샭뷡릹ꆡꆡ퓚맽좥20뛠쓪볤,쏱펪뮯퓋뚯쾯뻭좫쟲ꆣ냼튵벨킧폅솼뗄뻶뚨탔틲쯘쫇쪲쎴?헢솽듳컊쳢뗄삨랢듯맺볒ꆢ랢햹훐맺볒ꆢ탍맺볒퓚쓚뗄훚뛠맺첽쳖붫폐훺폚볓짮컒쏇뛔쏱펪뮯퓋뚯뗄쇋뷢ꆣ볒뚼뷸탐쇋쏱펪뮯뗄뎢쫔ꆣ룹뻝뫠샻ꆤ벪놾뇠훐맺쫇랢햹훐맺볒샯쏱펪뮯퓋뚯뗄쿈쟽헟,뗄ꆶ쏱펪뮯쓪본ꆷ(PrivatisationYearbook)폐맘튲쫇ퟮ돉릦뗄맺볒횮튻,폐ퟅ럡뢻뗄뺭퇩,쫇퇐뺿쇏,뷘훁1999쓪뗗,좫쟲뗄쏱펪뮯뷰뛮뎬맽1췲쏱펪뮯킧펦샭쿫뗄낸샽ꆣ훚쯹훜횪,훐맺쏱펪뺭볃틚쏀풪ꆣ랢햹쫇뺭볃룄룯훐튻룶훘튪뗄ퟩ돉늿럖ꆣ뻝춳볆,맺볊뺭퇩룦쯟컒쏇,죴짨볆뫍횴탐뗃떱,쏱펪듓1989훁1999쓪,쏱펪뺭볃뒴퓬뗄맺쏱짺닺ퟜ뮯좷쪵뿉틔듸살헾뢮ꆢ웳튵ꆢ쿻럑헟뫍춶헟쯄랽횵욽뻹쎿쓪틔28%뗄룟쯙퓶뎤,풶룟폚춬웚맺폐릲펮뗄뻖쏦ꆣ떫쏱펪뮯퓋뚯튲돶쿖쇋늻짙쪧냜뗄뺭볃뗄퓶뎤싊,쟒뛔맺쏱뺭볃뗄릱쿗틑뎬맽쇋맺샽ퟓ,폈웤쫇퓚뛀솪쳥맺볒뫍늿럖삭쏀맺볒ꆣ헢돤폐뺭볃늿쏅ꆣ쇭췢,듓1994쓪틔살쏱펪뺭볃쎿쓪럖쮵쏷쇋쏱펪뮯퓋뚯놾짭뗄뢴퓓탔,쯼쫇헻쳥뺭욽뻹퓶볓뻍튵듯820췲죋,쫇캩튻쓜릻컼쓉듓맺볃탍훐튻룶뷏뎤웚뗄죎컱,늻뿉쓜튻뛸뻍ꆣ쳘폐웳튵쿂룚벰얩듥쪣폠샍뚯솦뗄뺭볃늿쏅ꆣ헢킩뇰쫇쏱펪뮯탨튪틲뗘훆틋,튪폐뫪맛뺭볃뮷뺳뫍램훆믹뒡쿠엤쳗,횻폐헢퇹쏱펪웳튵닅뿉퓚쫊틋뗄뮷뺳훐랢믓웤쳘뎤ꆣ쒿잰톧쫵뷧틑뾪쪼훘탂움ꆡꆡ3헅뾡쾲:쿣룛듳톧뺭볃뷰죚톧풺ꆡ뗧ퟓ탅쿤:jjzhang@;헅뮪:훐얷맺볊릤짌톧풺ꆣ맀쏱펪뮯퓋뚯,ퟅ훘뾼달죧쿂솽듳컊쳢:(1)쏱펪ퟷ헟룐킻짏몣횤좯붻틗쯹뗄훺ꆢ헅컀뚫뗄놦맳붨틩뫍짐폂뮯퓋뚯뗄쿈뻶쳵볾뫍폅쿈듎탲쫇쪲쎴돶즫뗄훺샭릤ퟷꆣ?(2)쏱펪웳쫀뷧뺭볃3ꆡ2004쓪뗚11웚ꆡꆤ3ꆤ
ꆡꆡ쏱펪짏쫐릫쮾뗄뺭펪벨킧ꆢ쫐뎡볛횵뫍훎샭뷡릹돉벨뚼뇭쏷,쏱펪뮯퓋뚯쯹탨뗄뫪맛컈뚨쳵볾벰맻늢뛔듋뷸탐럖컶뫍뷢쫍;뗚쇹늿럖쫇ퟜ뷡뫍헾톭탲붥뷸뗄듎탲췪좫럻뫏훐맺맺쟩ꆣ램훆뗄늻뛏닟붨틩ꆣ췪짆,캪쏱펪웳튵뗄돉뎤뫍붡뾵랢햹쳡릩쇋폐샻뗄듳뮷뺳ꆣ튻ꆡ훐맺짏쫐쏱펪웳튵뗄랢햹뫍쳘헷듓헻쳥살뾴,훐맺쏱펪웳튵뗄벨킧뇭쿖욽뻹폅폚맺폐웳튵,떫컊쳢퓚폚떽뗗쫇쓄킩틲쯘웰뻶컒쏇뷧뚨쏱펪웳튵뗄뇪ힼ쫇,죧맻튻룶짏쫐뚨탔뗄ퟷ폃ꆣ놾컄붫듓릫쮾훎샭뗄뷇뛈톰헒쏱펪릫쮾뗄뗚튻듳막뚫쫇쫴폚쏱펪탔훊뗄웳튵ꆢퟔ좻웳튵뗄폅쪤횮뗀ꆣ평폚쫽뻝랽쏦뗄뻖쿞,컒쏇붫톡죋믲횰릤돖막믡,쓇쎴쯼뻍쫇쏱펪웳튵(틔쿂볲돆폃뮦짮솽뗘A막짏쫐뗄릫쮾ퟷ캪퇐뺿뛔쿳,쫗쿈쏱펪)ꆣ틀뻝듋뇪ힼ,컒쏇뛔뮦짮솽뗘뗄짏쫐릫쮾믣벯쏱펪짏쫐릫쮾벨킧폅풽뗄횤뻝,좻뫳퓙첽쳖뷸탐쇋훰튻뗄즸톡,틔2002쓪뗗캪웚쿞,퓚뮦짮릫쮾훎샭뷡릹폫벨킧횮볤뗄맘쾵ꆣ솽쫐훐톡좡197볒쏱펪짏쫐릫쮾캪퇐뺿퇹놾ꆣ뇭놾컄릲럖컥룶늿럖ꆣ뗚튻늿럖볲싔뷩짜퇹놾:1볲튪쏨쫶쇋1992떽2002쓪쏱펪짏쫐릫쮾뗄랢벴훐맺짏쫐릫쮾훐뗄쏱펪웳튵;뗚뛾늿럖믘맋폐햹샺돌ꆣ10쓪훐,짏쫐쏱펪쫽쒿틔쓪뻹퓶뎤싊83.맘컄쿗;뗚죽늿럖뛔쏱펪뫍럇쏱펪짏쫐릫쮾퓚웳8%뗄쯙뛈룟쯙퓶뎤ꆣ퓚쯹폐뗄197볒쏱펪훐,춨맽튵벨킧뫍릫쮾훎샭쳘헷뷸탐쏨쫶탔춳볆럖컶벰뇈IPO횱뷓짏쫐뗄폐71볒,햼ퟜ쫽뗄36%;춨맽맜샭뷏;뗚쯄늿럖쫇뛔쏱펪뮯킧펦벰웤폫릫쮾훎샭믺닣쫕릺(MBO)뛸볤뷓짏쫐뗄폐6볒,햼ퟜ쫽뗄훆횮볤맘쾵뗄럖컶랽램;뗚컥늿럖놨룦쇋믘맩뷡3%;춨맽싲뿇짏쫐뗄폐120볒,햼ퟜ쫽뗄61%ꆣꆡꆡ뇭11992ꆫ2002쓪쏱펪짏쫐릫쮾룅뿶쓪럝IPO싲뿇MBOퟜ볆짏쫐릫쮾ퟜ쫽쏱펪쫽쏱펪쯹햼뇈샽(%)ퟜ볆ꆡꆡ평폚욪럹맘쾵,컒쏇쎻폐틔뇭룱쿔쪾쏱펪짏컷늿릲폐43볒,햼ퟜ쫽뗄22%;훐늿릲폐31볒,쫐릫쮾뗄탐튵ꋙ뫍뗘쟸ꋚ럖늼,뛸뷶볲싔놨룦훷튪뷡맻ꆣ쏱펪짏쫐릫쮾럖늼퓚14룶늻춬뗄탐튵ꆣ웤훐ퟛ뫏샠뗄쏱펪짏쫐릫쮾ퟮ뛠ꋙ내횤볠믡릫늼뗄16룶탐튵럖샠ꆣ,듯떽50볒,햼ꋚ훐맺죽듳뗘샭쟸폲(늻냼삨쿣룛ꆢ첨췥뫍냄쏅)럖뇰캪뚫ퟜ쫽뗄25%;뗧ퟓ뫍춨톶탐튵ퟜ릲폐34볒,햼ퟜ늿ꆢ훐늿ꆢ컷늿ꆣ뚫늿뗘듸냼삨놱뺩ꆢ쳬뷲ꆢ뫓놱ꆢ쇉쓾ꆢ짏몣ꆢ붭쯕ꆢ쫽뗄17%;튽튩탐튵릲20볒,햼ퟜ쫽뗄10%;쟡헣붭ꆢ뢣붨ꆢ즽뚫ꆢ맣뚫뫍몣쓏뗈11룶쪡쫐;훐늿뗘듸냼삨즽컷ꆢ릤튵릲18볒,햼ퟜ쫽뗄9%ꆣ듓뗘폲럖늼살뾴벪쇖ꆢ뫚쇺붭ꆢ낲믕ꆢ붭컷ꆢ뫓쓏ꆢ뫾놱ꆢ뫾쓏뗈8룶쪡;컷늿뗘듸냼,뚫늿뗘쟸폐쏱펪짏쫐릫쮾123볒,햼ퟜ쫽뗄삨훘쟬ꆢ쯄뒨ꆢ맳훝ꆢ퓆쓏ꆢ컷님ꆢ짂컷ꆢ룊쯠ꆢ쟠몣ꆢ쓾쿄ꆢ탂붮ꆢ맣62%;컷ꆢ쓚쏉맅뗈12룶쪡ꆢ쫐ꆢퟔ훎쟸ꆣ쫀뷧뺭볃3ꆡ2004쓪뗚11웚ꆡꆤ4ꆤ
헅뾡쾲ꆡ헅ꆡ뮪ꆡꆡ햼ퟜ쫽뗄16%ꆣ뷸탐쏱펪뮯뗄웳튵벨킧ꆱ,랢쿖쏱펪뮯좷쪵쓜릻쳡룟킧싊ꆣ폫듋늻춬뗄쫇,뫳헟횱뷓뇈뷏쇋OECD뛾ꆡ컄쿗믘맋맺볒훐뗄43볒춨맽막럝쏱펪뮯(shareissueprivatization,SIP)뗄웳튵퓚쏱펪뮯잰뫳뗄벨킧,폐맘쏱펪뮯뗄톧쫵퇐뺿튻횱쫇뺭볃톧훐죈쏅랢쿖쏱펪뮯횮뫳쯹폐7룶벨킧횸뇪뚼폐쿔훸쳡뗄뿎쳢횮튻,컄쿗쪮럖럡뢻ꆣ듓퇐뺿랽램뾴,뿉틔룟ꆣ본폚쯼뗄횱뷓탔,쯻쏇뗄퇐뺿랽램튲돉캪쏱펪럖캪샭싛뫍뺭퇩럖컶;듓퇐뺿쯹헫뛔뗄맺볒뾴,폖뮯퇐뺿쇬폲뗄튻훖뺭뗤랽램ꆣ뿉럖캪탍맺볒뫍럇탍맺볒ꆣ볌헢튻퇐뺿뫳,Boubakri폫Cosset(1998)쪹(튻)쏱펪뮯뗄샭싛퇐뺿폃춬퇹뗄랽램뛔냼삨랢햹훐맺볒웳튵뗄룼볓듳맦뛔폚쏱펪뮯뗄샭싛퇐뺿훷튪폐Boardman폫쒣뗄퇹놾뷸탐쇋퇐뺿;뛸LaPorta폫Lopez2de2Vining(1989)ꆢVickers폫Yarrow(1991)ꆢSilanes(1999)틠퇘폃쇋헢튻랽램뛔쒫컷룧뗄쏱펪Laffont폫Tirole(1993)벰Djankov폫Murrell뮯뷸탐쇋쾵춳퇐뺿,뚼뗃돶쇋믹놾쿠춬뗄뷡맻ꆣ쇭(2000ꆢ2002)ꆣ헽죧Megginson폫Netter(2001)췢,Dewenter폫Malatesta(2000)뛔1975ꆢ1985퓚튻욪ퟛ쫶탔컄헂훐쯹ퟜ뷡뗄,쏱펪뮯샭싛쪵볊벰1995쓪죽룶쪱웚훐ꆰ닆뢻ꆱ퓓횾500잿웳튵훐짏쫇맘폚헾뢮퓚뺭볃훐ퟷ폃뗄퇐뺿,웤뷡싛훷튪뗄쏱펪폫맺폐웳튵ퟶ쇋벨킧뗄뇈뷏,쯻쏇랢쿖퓚폐틔쿂벸뗣:뿘훆쇋웳튵맦쒣ꆢ뗘폲ꆢ탐튵폫뺭볃훜웚뗄펰쿬1.쏱펪뮯뗄ퟷ폃좡뻶폚쫐뎡쪧쇩(market뫳,쏱펪뗄벨킧쿔훸뗘뫃폚맺폐웳튵ꆣfailure)뗄돌뛈ꆣ틲듋퓚뺺헹탔탐튵훐,쏱펪뮯뗄퓚쏱펪뮯듸살벨킧쳡룟뗄풭틲랽쏦,Cragg킧맻룼볓쿔훸ꆣ2.잩풼쓜솦(contractingability)폫Dyck(1999aꆢ1999b)랢쿖퓚펢맺,웳튵쏱펪뮯뗄듳킡믡펰쿬맺폐뫍쏱펪뗄킧싊,뛸퓚맺폐웳튵횮뫳뺭샭뗄킽돪뛔웳튵벨킧횮볤뗄솪쾵뇈쏱펪뮯훐,평폚웳튵뗄쒿뇪뫍뻟쳥뗄쪵탐룼쓑뷧뚨뫍볠횮잰룼볓쏴룐ꆣD’Souza뗈죋(1999)랢쿖퓚뷸탐뚽,틲듋맺폐웳튵뗄킧싊룼닮ꆣ3.맺폐닺좨쪹뗃헾쇋쏱펪뮯뗄웳튵훐,쯹폐좨뷡릹ꆢ웳튵쫇럱룼뮻뺭뢮룼볓죝틗룉풤뺭볃퓋탐ꆣ4.맺폐웳튵뗄뗍킧싊샭뫍뚭쫂믡ꆢ횤좯쫐뎡뗄랢듯돌뛈뚼믡펰쿬쏱펪훷튪살ퟔ폚웤ꆰ죭풤쯣풼쫸ꆱꆣ5.쏱펪뮯믡룄짆헾웳튵벨킧뗄쳡룟ꆣ뢮닆헾ힴ뿶ꆣ6.쏱펪뮯폐훺폚닺욷쫐뎡뫍횤좯쫐(죽)탍맺볒뗄쏱펪뮯뺭퇩럖컶뎡틔벰쫐뎡훆뛈뗄랢폽ꆣ폫럇탍맺볒늻춬,탍맺볒훐뗄쏱펪뮯쫇좻뛸헽죧Laffont폫Tirole(1993)쯹횸돶뗄:퓚튻룶뢴퓓뗄좫랽캻룄룯뗄듳놳뺰쿂뷸탐뗄ꆣ뺡ꆰ퓚(쏱펪뮯퇐뺿)헢튻쇬폲,샭싛놾짭늢쎻폐뷡싛맜퓚럇탍맺볒뗄퇐뺿뷡맻벸뫵튻훂쿔쪾쏱펪뮯탔뗄틢틥ꆱꆣ퓚헢룶쪵볹탔럇뎣잿뗄쇬폲훐,뺭퇩믡폐믽벫뗄킧맻,떫룷탍맺볒평폚샺쪷ꆢ뮷뺳ꆢ럖컶뷏샭싛퇐뺿룼폐볛횵뫍틢틥,틲듋튲쫇쏱펪탍헾닟뗈늻춬,퓬돉쏱펪뮯뗄킧맻튲폐쯹닮틬ꆣ뮯컄쿗뗄훷튪ퟩ돉늿럖ꆣ쿂쏦컒쏇럖뇰믘맋맘폚샽죧,Djankov폫Murrell(2002)뗄ퟜ뷡죏캪뚫럇탍뫍탍맺볒뗄쏱펪뮯뗄뺭퇩럖컶ꆣ얷룷맺뗄쏱펪뮯킧맻뫃폚잰쯕솪맺볒ꆣ틲듋,탍(뛾)럇탍맺볒쏱펪뮯뗄뺭퇩럖컶맺볒뗄쏱펪뮯퇐뺿룼볓맘탄뗄쫇쪲쎴퇹뗄쏱펪뮯럇탍맺볒뗄쏱펪뮯뗄뺭퇩럖컶훷튪벯훐퓚닅믡듸살믽벫뗄킧맻ꆣ쏱펪뮯쫇럱헦뗄듸살벨킧뗄쳡룟ꆣ뷏퓧퇐뺿쏱펪Frydman뗈죋(1999)볬퇩쇋1990떽1993뮯뛔벨킧쳡룟뗄폐Galal뗈죋(1994)뫍쓪뷝뿋ꆢ늨삼ꆢ탙퇀샻뗄218볒웳튵쏱펪뮯뗄킧Megginson뗈죋(1994)ꆣ잰헟쪹폃쇋튻훖놻돆캪맻ꆣ쯻쏇랢쿖쏱펪뮯킧맻훷튪좡뻶폚쮭쫇쏱펪뮯ꆰ쓦랴램ꆱ(counter2factualapproach)뗄랽램뛔펢뫳웳튵뗄쯹폐헟:붫웳튵막럝쫛폨풭쿈웳튵뗄맜맺ꆢ훇샻ꆢ십살컷퇇뫍쒫컷룧뗄12볒듳웳튵뷸탐샭헟믲웳튵맍풱(벴쓚늿죋)뗄쏱펪뮯킧맻늻쏷퇐뺿ꆣ쯻쏇뇈뷏쇋쏱펪뮯뫳웳튵뗄벨킧뫍ꆰ죧맻늻쿔,죧맻붫웳튵막럝쫛폨맺췢춶헟뫍맺쓚뗄췢쫀뷧뺭볃3ꆡ2004쓪뗚11웚ꆡꆤ5ꆤ
ꆡꆡ쏱펪짏쫐릫쮾뗄뺭펪벨킧ꆢ쫐뎡볛횵뫍훎샭뷡릹늿춶헟퓲믡듸살웳튵벨킧뗄쿔훸쳡룟ꆣ틲듋쯻릫쮾,럖뫬튲튪뛠폚럇쏱펪웳튵(틔쿂볲돆럇쏱쏇횸돶,죧뫎쏱펪뮯닅쫇훘튪뗄컊쳢ꆣ펪)ꆣ킻냙죽뫍킻쫯맢(2003)ퟶ쇋춬퇹뗄볬퇩,늻Djankov(1999aꆢ1999b)뛔뛭맺뗄쏱펪뮯퇐춬뗄쫇웤퇹놾웚캪2001쓪,쯻쏇랢쿖쏱펪뗄욽뻹뺿튲랢쿖,쏱펪뮯뫳평췢늿죋뿘훆뗄웳튵뗄벨킧펮샻뗍폚럇쏱펪,틲듋뗃돶쇋쏱펪짏쫐릫쮾벨킧쳡룟ퟮ뛠,뛸쏱펪뮯뫳룼뮻풭쿈뗄뺭샭튲뛔벨킧늻죧럇쏱펪뗄뷡싛ꆣ쇵믛(2002)죏캪쏱펪짏쫐릫뗄쳡룟훁맘훘튪ꆣ뛸Anderson뗈죋(2000)뛔쏉쮾훐뗄ꆰ튻막뛀듳ꆱ늢늻쫇컊쳢,틲캪쏱펪늻듦퓚맅뗄쏱펪뮯웳튵뗄퇐뺿랢쿖,평폚쏉맅뗄쫐뎡ꆢ훆럇쏱펪뗄ꆰ헾웳늻럖ꆱ뗄컊쳢ꆣ훐맺뗄쿠맘퇐뺿훐뛈랢폽뷏늻췪짆,쏱펪뮯뫳죔좻평헾뢮돖폐짙솿횱뷓헫뛔훐맺쏱펪뗄벨킧폫릫쮾훎샭뗄퇐뺿늢늻막럝뗄웳튵뗄벨킧룼뫃ꆣ뛠ꆣXu폫Wang(1997)뫍Tian(2000)뷶쳡릩쇋(쯄)탍맺볒뗄쏱펪뮯폫릫쮾훎샭맘폚쏱펪뮯뗄볤뷓횤뻝;쯎쿗훐뫍싞쿾쇖(2003)ꆢ탍맺볒뗄쏱펪뮯퇐뺿뚼믲뛠믲짙뗘폫릫쮾킻냙죽뫍킻쫯맢(2003)뗄볬퇩랽램횻쫇쏨쫶탔춳훎샭쿠쳡늢싛,떫훷튪벯훐퓚ꆰ톰헒뫏쫊뗄쯹폐볆,쟒웤뾼싇뗄벨킧횸뇪틠늻릻좫쏦,틲듋쯻쏇뗄헟ꆱ헢룶컊쳢짏ꆣ뛔웤쯻릫쮾훎샭믺훆짙폐짦벰ꆣ뷡싛늢늻쪮럖뿉뾿;쇵믛(2002)횻쫇튻훖맛뗣뗄Dyck(2001)듓룅쓮짏뛔쏱펪뮯뫍릫쮾훎샭닻쫶,좱랦샭싛뫍뺭퇩럖컶뗄횧돖ꆣ횮볤뗄맘쾵ퟶ쇋닻쫶ꆣ쯻죏캪평폚훆뛈랢폽ꆢ램싉놣뮤돌뛈뗄늻춬,늻춬맺볒ꆢ늻춬뷗뛎뗄쏱펪뮯뇘죽ꆡ릫쮾벨킧폫훎샭뷡릹뗄쏨쫶탔춳볆럖컶탫틀뾿늻춬뗄릫쮾훎샭믺훆,죧듋닅쓜좡뗃ퟮ폅뗄킧맻ꆣClaessens폫Djankov(1999)횱뷓볬퇩놾퇐뺿쫗쿈뇈뷏훐맺쏱펪짏쫐릫쮾폫럇쏱펪쇋뷝뿋쏱펪뮯뫳뗄웳튵벨킧뫍릫쮾훎샭횮볤뗄맘짏쫐릫쮾벨킧뗄닮뇰,좻뫳짮죫럖컶닺짺헢튻닮쾵ꆣ쯻쏇랢쿖쯹폐좨벯훐돌뛈룟뗄웳튵폐룼뫃뗄틬뗄풭틲ꆣ놾뷚뗄죎컱쫇뛔헢솽샠릫쮾뗄벨킧뫍펮샻쓜솦뫍쫐뎡움볛,늢쟒춬틸탐폐ퟅ솼뫃뗄맘훎샭뷡릹뗄쳘헷ퟶ쏨쫶탔춳볆뇈뷏ꆣ쾵뛔웳튵살쮵샻듳폚뇗ꆣ(튻)퇹놾ꆢ횸뇪뫍랽램(컥)훐맺뗄쿠맘퇐뺿평폚쫽뻝뗄맘쾵,퇐뺿뗄퇹놾웚캪1999훁뛔훐맺뗄뛠쫽퇐뺿뛔쿳쫇뺭볃룄룯뗄헻쳥맽2001쓪ꆣ춬쪱,튻킩쫽뻝늻좫뗄짏쫐릫쮾놻업돽돌,죧Lau뗈죋(2000)뗄퇐뺿듓샭싛짏폫뺭퇩럖퓚컒쏇뗄퇹놾췢ꆣ틲듋,1999쓪컒쏇뗄퇹놾짏쫐컶짏햹쿖쇋훐맺룄룯쫇튻룶평쮫맬훆떽ퟮ훕뗄쫐웳튵ퟜ쫽캪874볒,웤훐쏱펪66볒;2000쓪캪뎡뮯뗄맽돌ꆣ뛸웳튵벨킧뗄쳡룟쫇평폚벤샸믺훆1016볒,웤훐쏱펪96볒;2001쓪캪1113볒,웤훐뗄룄짆뫍뺭볃뻶닟뗄ꆰ럖좨뮯ꆱ쏱펪143볒ꆣ(decentralization)ꆣ뛔벨킧뗄뇈뷏훷튪럖캪쯄룶랽쏦,튻쫇퓋펪Xu폫Wang(1997)랢쿖퓚훐맺A막쫐뎡뗄ힴ뿶,냼삨죽룶횸뇪,럖뇰캪:훷펪튵컱쫕죫ꆢ돉놾짏쫐릫쮾훐,맺폐막뇈훘폫웳튵펮샻돉랴뇈;램죋킧싊(뻟쳥캪훷펪튵컱돉놾폫훷펪튵컱쫕죫횮막뇈훘폫웳튵펮샻돉헽뇈;뛸룶죋막뇈훘폫웳튵뇈)ꆢ죋뻹쫕죫(뻟쳥캪훷펪튵컱쫕죫폫맍풱쫽솿펮샻컞맘ꆣTian(2000)볬퇩쇋훐맺짏쫐릫쮾훐뗄횮뇈)ꆣ뛾캪펮샻ힴ뿶,냼삨쿺쫛믘놨싊(뺻샻죳폫맺폐막럝뛔웳튵벨킧뗄ퟷ폃ꆣ쯻랢쿖떱맺폐막뇈쿺쫛쫕죫횮뇈)ꆢ뺻닺믘놨싊(뺻샻죳폫좨틦횮훘뇈뷏킡쪱,웤뇈샽폫짏쫐웳튵뗄쫐뎡움볛돉랴뇈)ꆢ닺믘놨싊(뺻샻죳폫ퟜ닺횮뇈)벰죋뻹뺻뇈;뛸떱맺폐막뇈훘뇈뷏듳쪱,웤뇈샽폫짏쫐웳튵샻죳(뺻샻죳폫맍풱쫽솿횮뇈)쯄룶횸뇪ꆣ죽캪뗄쫐뎡움볛퓲돉헽뇈ꆣ쯎쿗훐뫍싞쿾쇖(2003)뛔놾뷡릹,냼삨뎤웚닆컱룜룋(뎤웚뢺햮폫좨틦횮1998쓪횮잰뗄짏쫐쏱펪폫럇쏱펪짏쫐릫쮾뗄닆뇈)뫍ퟜ닆컱룜룋(ퟜ뢺햮폫ퟜ닺횮뇈)솽룶횸컱ힴ뿶ퟶ쇋뇈뷏,춨맽쏨쫶탔춳볆럖컶,쯻쏇랢쿖뇪ꆣ쯄캪쫐뎡움볛,횸뇪캪췐뇶Q횵ꆣ쏱펪퓚닺뢺햮싊ꆢ쿖뷰쇷랽쏦폅폚럇쏱펪짏쫐퓚릫쮾훎샭뷡맻랽쏦,컒쏇톡좡컥룶횸뇪,럖쫀뷧뺭볃3ꆡ2004쓪뗚11웚ꆡꆤ6ꆤ
헅뾡쾲ꆡ헅ꆡ뮪ꆡꆡ뇰캪:잰컥듳막뚫돖막뇈샽횮뫍,잰컥듳막뚫돖막쏱펪폫럇쏱펪짏쫐릫쮾벨킧뇈뷏뗄뷡맻볻뇭뫕럒듷뛻횸쫽(룷막뚫돖막욽랽횮뫍),뗚튻듳막2ꆣ볻폚욪럹맘쾵,럖뗘쟸ꆢ럖탐튵뗄춳볆뷡맻늻뚫돖막뇈샽,룟벶맜샭죋풱돖막뇈샽뫍뚭쫂믡훐틔뇭룱탎쪽놨룦ꆣ뛸쟒,평폚럖탐튵춳볆뷡맻폫췢늿뚭쫂뇈샽ꆣퟜ쳥퇹놾믹놾쿠쯆,컒쏇횻쳖싛ퟜ퇹놾뫍럖뗘폲(뛾)벨킧뇈뷏뗄춳볆뷡맻ꆣ뇭2훐맺쏱펪뫍럇쏱펪짏쫐릫쮾퓋펪ힴ뿶ꆢ펮샻쓜솦ꆢ놾뷡릹뫍쫐뎡벨킧움볛뗄ퟛ뫏뇈뷏퓋펪ힴ뿶펮샻쓜솦닆컱룜룋쫐뎡움볛쫕훷죫펪튵컱(틚풪돉놾킧싊죋)쫕죫뻹쿺쫛(췲풪쿺쫛믘놨싊뺻)믘놨닺싊ퟜ믘놨닺싊죋뻹뺻샻죳뎤웚닆컱(췲풪)룜룋ퟜ닆컱룜룋췐뇶Q1999쏱펪럇쏱펪쏱펪럇쏱펪쏱펪럇쏱펪쏱펪럇쏱펪쏱펪럇쏱펪쏱펪럇쏱펪쏱펪럇쏱펪쏱펪럇쏱펪쏱펪럇쏱펪쏱펪럇쏱펪뻹횵훐횵뇪ힼ닮쏱펪럇쏱펪쏱펪럇쏱펪쏱펪럇쏱펪쏱펪럇쏱펪쏱펪럇쏱펪쏱펪럇쏱펪쏱펪럇쏱펪쏱펪럇쏱펪쏱펪럇쏱펪쏱펪럇쏱펪뻹횵훐횵뇪ힼ닮쏱펪럇쏱펪쏱펪럇쏱펪쏱펪럇쏱펪쏱펪럇쏱펪쏱펪럇쏱펪쏱펪럇쏱펪쏱펪럇쏱펪쏱펪럇쏱펪쏱펪럇쏱펪쏱펪럇쏱펪뻹횵훐횵뇪ힼ닮ꆡꆡ뿉틔뾴떽,퓚훷펪튵컱쫕죫랽쏦,럇쏱펪뗄욽쏱펪뗄닮틬럇뎣듳,쏱펪뗄퓋펪킧싊풶폅폚럇쏱뻹쮮욽풶룟폚쏱펪,퓚룷쓪훐,럇쏱펪뗄욽뻹훷펪펪ꆣ컷늿뗘쟸쏱펪뗄퓋펪ힴ뿶뷓뷼뚫늿쮮욽ꆣ튵컱쫕죫뚼쫇쏱펪뗄솽놶틔짏ꆣ떫훷펪튵컱쫕죫뇭2뮹쇐돶쇋쏱펪폫럇쏱펪퓚쿺쫛믘놨싊ꆢ튻랽쏦좡뻶폚웳튵뗄퓋펪킧싊,쇭튻랽쏦좡뻶폚뺻닺믘놨싊ꆢퟜ닺믘놨싊ꆢ죋뻹뺻샻죳뗄뻹웳튵맦쒣,쯹틔탨튪쪹폃웤쯻횸뇪살뷸튻늽럖컶횵ꆢ훐캻쫽뫍뇪ힼ욫닮ꆣ뿉틔뾴돶,뇭훐뗄퇹놾뇪쏱펪뫍럇쏱펪뗄킧싊ꆣ듓돉놾킧싊뫍죋뻹쿺쫛쫕ힼ욫닮뫜듳,틲듋뻹횵믡벫듳뗘놻ꆰ튰뗣ꆱ죫살뾴,돉놾킧싊뛾헟믹놾쿠쯆,쏱펪싔뫃폚럇쏱(outlier)펰쿬ꆣ컒쏇췆닢웤풭틲쫇훐맺짏쫐릫쮾펪,뛸퓚죋뻹쿺쫛쫕죫랽쏦,쏱펪퓲듳듳룟폚쏱훐웕뇩듦퓚ꆰ펮샻닙ퟝꆱ뗄쿖쿳,뛸ퟮ뫳퓚튻뚨쪱펪ꆣ헢쮵쏷쏱펪짏쫐릫쮾퓚쫐뎡쿺쫛뫍돉놾뿘훆뗣돶쿖쇋쫕죫ꆢ펮샻뗄틬뚯ꆣ룹뻝춳볆톧풭샭,퓚뗈랽쏦뗄킧싊뫃폚럇쏱펪ꆣ럇쏱펪퓚훷펪튵컱쫕헢훖쟩뿶쿂훐횵쫇튻룶룼볓뿉뾿뗄횸뇪ꆣ뿉틔뾴죫랽쏦뗄폅쫆쫇평폚웤맦쒣듳듳뎬맽쏱펪짏쫐릫떽,퓚1999ꆢ2000ꆢ2001쓪,쏱펪퓚쯄룶횸뇪뗄훐쮾,뛸쏱펪뗄폅쫆퓚폚맜샭킧싊뇈뷏룟,쳥쿖퓚죋횵짏뚼룟폚럇쏱펪,쿔쪾웤뷏잿뗄펮샻쓜솦ꆣ뻹쿺쫛쫕죫랽쏦쏱펪듳듳뫃폚럇쏱펪ꆣ듓럖뗘쟸뷇뛈뾴,퓚듳뛠쫽뗄쪱볤뫍횸뇪짏,럖뗘쟸뗄뇈뷏쿔쪾,뚫늿뗘쟸뗄짏쫐릫쮾,컞죽룶뗘폲훐뗄쏱펪뚼튪뫃폚럇쏱펪,뛸웤훐컷늿싛쏱펪뫍럇쏱펪,퓋펪킧싊뚼뇈뷏룟,뛸쏱펪뗄죋뗄쏱펪폫룃뗘쟸럇쏱펪퓚펮샻쓜솦랽쏦뗄닮틬ퟮ뻹쿺쫛쫕죫룟폚럇쏱펪,떫쫇솽헟닮뻠늻듳ꆣ훐늿캪쏷쿔,뚫늿뫍훐늿쏱펪뫍럇쏱펪펮샻쓜솦뗄닮뗘쟸뗄쏱펪뫍럇쏱펪짏쫐릫쮾뗄퓋펪킧싊웕뇩뇈틬퓲늻쫇뫜쏷쿔ꆣ뷏뗍,쏱펪짵훁쇓폚럇쏱펪;컷늿뗘쟸뗄쏱펪폫럇퓚뎤웚닆컱룜룋랽쏦,쏱펪듳듳뗍폚럇쏱펪,쫀뷧뺭볃3ꆡ2004쓪뗚11웚ꆡꆤ7ꆤ
ꆡꆡ쏱펪짏쫐릫쮾뗄뺭펪벨킧ꆢ쫐뎡볛횵뫍훎샭뷡릹뛸퓚ퟜ닆컱룜룋랽쏦,쏱펪퓲튪룟폚럇쏱펪ꆣ헢쮵쫽뫍뗚튻듳막뚫돖막뇈샽,훷튪랴펳쇋막좨뗄벯쏷럇쏱펪뗄뎤웚닆컱럧쿕튪듳폚쏱펪,늢쟒듓헢훐돌뛈ꆣ막좨벯훐돌뛈풽룟,듳막뚫뛔맜샭닣쪵탐튻닮틬컒쏇뿉틔췆뛏,쏱펪춨맽뛌웚뗄뷨듻탎쪽볠뚽뗄믽벫탔뻍풽룟,듺샭돉놾튲뻍풽킡;떫막좨뷸탐죚뗄뇈샽룟폚럇쏱펪ꆣ튲뻍쫇쮵럇쏱펪룼벯훐뗄춬쪱,듳막뚫뷸탐ꆰ쯭뗀탐캪ꆱ뗄뿉쓜탔튲죝틗뗃떽뎤웚탅듻뗄횧돖,헢퓚쒳훖돌뛈짏듓튻뻍풽룟ꆣ듓헢죽룶횸뇪튲뿉틔뾴돶웤쯻듳막뚫뛔룶닠쏦쮵쏷쇋쏱펪뎤웚죚욿뺱뗄듦퓚ꆣ럖탐튵뗚튻듳막뚫뗄훆풼ퟷ폃ꆣ맜샭닣돖막뇈샽랴펳쇋뫍럖뗘쟸뗄쏱펪폫럇쏱펪퓚헢솽룶횸뇪짏뗄닮틬릫쮾뗄듺샭돉놾,맜샭닣돖막풽뛠,뛔웤벤샸뻍풽튲믹놾폫ퟜ퇹놾튻훂,헢샯늻퓙ힸ쫶ꆣ룟,웳튵뗄듺샭돉놾튲뻍풽킡ꆣ췢늿뚭쫂햼뚭쫂믡췐뇶Q쫇랴펳춶헟뛔폚짏쫐웳튵ퟜ쳥움뇈샽풽룟,뛔듳막뚫뗄훆뫢뻍풽잿,웳튵랢짺ꆰ쯭볛뗄횸뇪,Q횵풽룟뇭쏷쫐뎡뛔폚룃짏쫐릫쮾뗄뗀탐캪ꆱ뗄뿉쓜탔튲뻍풽킡ꆣ쫐뎡움볛뫍풤웚풽룟ꆣ듓뇭2뿉틔뾴돶,컞싛쫇헻뇭3쿔쪾,쏱펪잰컥듳막뚫돖막뇈샽횮뫍뗄쳥뮹쫇럖탐튵ꆢ럖뗘쟸,쏱펪뗄Q횵퓚뻸듳뛠쫽욽뻹횵싔뗍폚럇쏱펪ꆣ튻냣쏱펪잰컥듳막뚫돖막쟩뿶쿂뚼룟폚럇쏱펪ꆣ헢쮵쏷춶헟뛔폚쏱펪뗄뇈샽풼캪52%,뛸럇쏱펪캪60%ퟳ폒;쏱펪뗄뫕움볛뫍쫐뎡풤웚뻹룟폚럇쏱펪ꆣ듓횮잰헢솽샠웳럒듷뛻횸쫽튲튪뗍폚럇쏱펪ꆣ듓뗚튻듳막뚫돖막튵퓚퓋펪ힴ뿶ꆢ펮샻쓜솦ꆢ닆컱룜룋(닆컱럧쿕)랽뇈샽뿉틔뾴떽,쏱펪뗄뗚튻듳막뚫돖막뇈샽튪짙쏦뗄닮틬살뾴,쫐뎡뛔헢솽샠웳튵뗄움볛쫇뇈뷏폚럇쏱펪10%틔짏,틲듋컒쏇뗃돶뷸튻늽뗄뷡샭탔뗄ꆣ싛,쏱펪짏쫐릫쮾뷏럇쏱펪짏쫐릫쮾듳막뚫돖막(죽)쏱펪뫍럇쏱펪짏쫐릫쮾릫쮾훎샭뷡릹뗄벯훐돌뛈킡,늢쟒훷튪쳥쿖퓚뗚튻듳막뚫돖막뇈뇈뷏샽뷏짙;뛸퓚뗚뛾떽뗚컥캻듳막뚫돖막랽쏦솽샠훚쯹훜횪,릫쮾훎샭뗄쒿뗄퓚폚뷢뻶막뚫뫍웳튵믹놾쿠떱,틲듋퓚쏱펪훐웤쯻듳막뚫뛔뗚튻맜샭닣횮볤뗄쎬뛜(벴듺샭돉놾컊쳢,agency듳막뚫뗄훆풼솦룼잿ꆣcost)틔벰듳막뚫뫍킡막뚫횮볤뗄쎬뛜(벴ꆰ쯭뗀룟벶맜샭죋풱돖막헢튻쿖쿳퓚훐맺짐늻웕탐캪ꆱ,tunneling)ꆣ듓컒쏇톡좡뗄헢컥룶횸뇪뾴,뇩,뛸헢튻횸뇪쏱펪싔룟폚럇쏱펪,헢쮵쏷쏱펪퓚잰죽룶횸뇪ꆪꆪ컥듳막뚫돖막뇈샽ꆢ뫕럒듷뛻횸뛔뺭샭닣뗄벤샸-풼쫸믺훆짨볆랽쏦폅폚럇쏱펪뇭31999ꆫ2001쓪쏱펪뫍럇쏱펪짏쫐릫쮾훎샭뷡릹뇈뷏쓪럝횸뇪돖잰막컥뇈듳샽막횮뚫뫍뫕럒듷뛻횸쫽뗚돖튻막듳뇈막샽뚫룟벶돖맜막샭뇈죋샽풱뚭뚭쫂쫂믡뇈췢샽늿1999웳튵탔훊쏱펪럇쏱펪쏱펪럇쏱펪쏱펪럇쏱펪쏱펪럇쏱펪쏱펪럇쏱펪뻹횵뇪ힼ욫닮훐횵웳튵탔훊쏱펪럇쏱펪쏱펪럇쏱펪쏱펪럇쏱펪쏱펪럇쏱펪쏱펪럇쏱펪뻹횵뇪ힼ욫닮훐횵웳튵탔훊쏱펪럇쏱펪쏱펪럇쏱펪쏱펪럇쏱펪쏱펪럇쏱펪쏱펪럇쏱펪뻹횵뇪ힼ욫닮훐횵쫀뷧뺭볃3ꆡ2004쓪뗚11웚ꆡꆤ8ꆤ
헅뾡쾲ꆡ헅ꆡ뮪ꆡꆡ웳튵ꆣ퓚뚭쫂믡훐췢늿뚭쫂뇈샽헢튻횸뇪짏,쏱펪쮾i퓚t쓪훐뗄쯹폐좨탔훊쫇쏱펪,Pijt=1,럱퓲뗄췢늿뚭쫂뇈샽웕뇩룟폚럇쏱펪,헢쮵쏷쏱펪쿠Pijt=0ꆣ춬쪱,떱쓪뗄쏱펪짏쫐릫쮾늻퓚컒쏇뗄뾼뇈럇쏱펪룼볓힢훘헢튻릫쮾훎샭믺훆ꆣ달랶캧쓚,벴퓚1999ꆫ2001퇹놾웚볤뗄t쓪,떱튻볒웳튵i퓚잰튻쓪(t-1쓪)훐돉캪쏱펪(컞싛쯄ꆡ쏱펪뮯킧펦폫릫쮾훎샭뷡릹뗄춨맽횱뷓짏쫐ꆢ싲뿇믲쫇MBO),퓲ퟔt쓪웰쯼놻믘맩럖컶랽램맩캪쏱펪,Pijt=1ꆣΒj쫇컒쏇ퟮ룐탋좤뗄뛔쿳,쯼뗄쿔훸탔ꆢ헽뢺뫍듳킡붫랴펳쏱펪뮯킧펦ꆣꆡꆡ잰늿럖뗄쏨쫶탔춳볆뇈뷏캪컒쏇뛔쏱펪짏쫐X듺뇭쇋뿘훆뇤솿뗄쿲솿ꆣ컒쏇쪹폃쇋웳튵릫쮾뫍럇쏱펪짏쫐릫쮾퓚벨킧뫍릫쮾훎샭랽쏦뗄ퟜ닺뫍닆컱룜룋(웳튵쯹폐햮컱폫ퟜ닺횸뇪)닮뇰쳡릩쇋뇘튪뗄놳뺰쇏ꆣ퓚놾늿럖,컒쏇쪹폃ퟷ캪뿘훆뇤솿,웤훐ퟜ닺뿘훆쇋웳튵맦쒣뛔벨믘맩럖컶뗄랽램,뛔듋컊쳢뷸탐뷸튻늽뗄헽맦볬킧뗄펰쿬,뛸닆컱룜룋뿘훆쇋웳튵놾뷡릹뗄펰퇩ꆣ평폚놾퇐뺿닉폃쇋1999ꆫ2001쓪뗄쏦냥쫽뻝쿬ꆣ춬쪱캪쇋뿘훆쪱볤ꆢ탐튵ꆢ뗘폲뗄펰쿬,컒쏇쪹(paneldata),컒쏇쪹폃퓚뺭볃톧뫍뷰죚톧훐뎣폃쇋쓪럝탩쓢뇤솿(룹뻝퇹놾웚뗄죽쓪짨훃)ꆢ탐폃뗄쏦냥쫽뻝럖컶랽램살뷸탐ꆣ튵탩쓢뇤솿(룹뻝횤볠믡16룶탐튵럖샠짨훃)ꆢ뗘볬퇩훷튪럖캪죽룶늽훨ꆣ뗚튻,컒쏇볬퇩폲탩쓢뇤솿(룹뻝뚫ꆢ훐ꆢ컷죽듳뗘폲럖샠짨훃)ꆣ1999ꆫ2001쓪짏쫐릫쮾뗄쏱펪뮯뺿뺹폐쎻폐듸캪뇜쏢뛠훘릲쿟탔,ퟜ릲폐솽룶쓪럝탩쓢뇤솿ꆢ15살벨킧뗄쳡룟ꆣ죧맻쏱펪짏쫐릫쮾뷏횮럇쏱펪짏룶탐튵탩쓢뇤솿뫍솽룶뗘폲탩쓢뇤솿ꆣ쫐릫쮾퓚벨킧짏좷폐쳡룟,쓇쎴컒쏇붫볌탸볬퇩(뛾)막좨벯훐뛈뛔웳튵벨킧뗄펰쿬ꆪꆪ볤뷓릫쮾훎샭뛔벨킧쳡룟뗄ퟷ폃ꆣ뛔웳튵벨킧뫍훎샭볬퇩횮볤맘쾵뗄볬퇩붫뛔ퟜ퇹놾틔벰쏱펪짏쫐릫쮾뫍듓맽췹뗄톧쫵퇐뺿훐뿉횪,돽쇋웳튵뗄쯹폐럇쏱펪짏쫐릫쮾솽룶럖퇹놾럖뇰뷸탐ꆣ컒쏇쫗쿈좨탔훊췢,릫쮾훎샭뷡릹뛔웳튵벨킧튲폐ퟅ뻶뚨럖컶웳튵벨킧뫍잰컥듳막뚫막좨벯훐뛈횮볤뗄맘탔뗄펰쿬,죧Claessens폫Djankov(1999)뛔뷝뿋쾵,ퟮ뫳ퟛ뫏볬퇩벨킧폫뗚튻듳막뚫돖막뇈샽ꆢ뗚쏱펪뗄퇐뺿랢쿖,막좨벯훐뛈룟뗄웳튵뗄벨킧룼뛾떽뗚컥듳막뚫돖막뇈샽ꆢ릫쮾룟벶맜샭죋풱돖뫃ꆣ튻냣쮵살,듳막뚫돖막벯훐뛈풽룟,퓲웤볠뚽막뇈샽ꆢ뚭쫂믡췢늿뚭쫂뇈샽헢킩훘튪뗄릫쮾훎맜샭닣뗄믽벫탔뻍풽룟,떫춬쪱듳막뚫쟖몦킡막샭믺훆횮볤뗄맘쾵ꆣ뚫샻틦뗄뿉쓜탔튲뻍풽듳ꆣ틲듋돖막벯훐뛈뛔릫(튻)쏱펪뮯킧펦뗄볬퇩쮾훎샭뗄펰쿬쫇튻뇺쮫죐붣,폐볻폚듋,컒쏇쫗쿈컒쏇쪹폃만뚨킧펦쒣탍볬퇩쏱펪짏쫐릫쮾폫뾼달막좨벯훐뛈뫍웳튵벨킧뗄맘쾵,늢뛔헻룶짏럇쏱펪짏쫐릫쮾벨킧뗄닮뇰ꆣ믹놾쮼쿫쫇붫쏱펪쫐릫쮾퇹놾뫍쏱펪ꆢ럇쏱펪뗄ퟓ퇹놾럖뇰뷸탐ꆣ뷏뮯쫓캪튻룶ꆰ훎쇆뇤솿ꆱ(treatmentvariable),퓚횮폚횮잰뷶헫뛔쏱펪뮯횮뫳뗄웳튵뗄퇐뺿,헢퇹뿘훆쇋웤쯻틲쯘뗄펰쿬뫳,죧맻헢룶ꆰ훎쇆뇤솿ꆱ룼폐샻폚뇈뷏솽샠웳튵뗄닮틬,듓뛸뛔쏱펪뮯뫍쫇쿔훸뗄,쓇뻍쮵쏷쏱펪뮯뛔웳튵벨킧좷폐펰쿬,릫쮾훎샭뷡릹횮볤뗄맘쾵폐룼볓짮죫ꆢ쟥돾뗄죏뛸ꆰ훎쇆뇤솿ꆱ쾵쫽뗄헽뢺뫍듳킡퓲쳥쿖쇋쏱펪뮯쪶ꆣ뛔헻쳥퇹놾뗄믘맩쒣탍죧쿂:킧펦뗄랽쿲뫍돌뛈ꆣ뻟쳥뗄믘맩쒣탍죧쿂:yit=Α+ΒjPijt+ΧX+Κ1C5it(2)yit=Α+ΒjPijt+ΧX(1)쒣탍훐놻뷢쫍뇤솿쫇웳튵벨킧,폫잰늿럖짔웤훐,놻뷢쫍뇤솿yit쫇웳튵벨킧,컒쏇럖뇰폐늻춬,컒쏇짡웺쇋쿺쫛쫕죫뫍맍풱죋쫽뛸쪹폃쪹폃:(1)쿺쫛쫕죫;(2)맍풱죋쫽;(3)돉놾ö쿺쫛웤폠7룶횸뇪,풭틲퓚폚쿺쫛쫕죫뫍맍풱죋쫽쫴뇈;(4)죋뻹쿺쫛;(5)쿺쫛쫕틦;(6)뺻닺쫕틦;폚ퟜ솿횸뇪,쫜웳튵맦쒣펰쿬뫜듳ꆣ뛸퓚듋뒦컒쏇(7)ퟜ닺쫕틦;(8)죋뻹뺻샻죳;(9)췐뇶Q횵ꆣ튪ퟅ훘첽뺿웳튵뗄킧싊ꆢ킧틦폫릫쮾훎샭뗄맘쾵,Pijt쫇듺뇭쏱펪뮯뗄탩쓢뇤솿ꆣ떱튻볒짏쫐릫틲듋웤쯻7룶횸뇪룼볓쫊폃ꆣPijt폫쪽(1)쿠춬,뛸쫀뷧뺭볃3ꆡ2004쓪뗚11웚ꆡꆤ9ꆤ
ꆡꆡ쏱펪짏쫐릫쮾뗄뺭펪벨킧ꆢ쫐뎡볛횵뫍훎샭뷡릹탂퓶볓뗄C5쫇잰컥듳막뚫뗄돖막벯훐돌뛈ꆣ뛔폚ퟓ퇹놾뗄믘맩쒣탍싔폐늻춬:C5,컒쏇럖뇰쪹폃솽룶닢뛈랽램:(1)잰컥듳막뚫yit=Α+ΧX+Κ1C1it+Κ2C21it돖막뇈샽횮뫍;(2)잰컥듳막뚫돖막뗄뫕럒듷뛻횸+Κ3C2it+Κ4Mit+Κ5Eit(7)쫽ꆣ틲캪돖막벯훐뛈뛔웳튵벨킧뗄펰쿬폐샻폐뇗,컒쏇싔좥쇋쏱펪뮯킧펦뗄탩쓢뇤솿,웤쯻뗄틲듋뫜뿉쓜돊쿖돶럇쿟탔뗄맘쾵ꆣ컒쏇퓚쪹폃잰뷢쫍뇤솿뫍뿘훆뇤솿폫(6)쪽쿠춬ꆣ뇈뷏늻춬퇹놾컥듳막뚫돖막뇈샽횮뫍ퟷ캪뷢쫍뇤솿쪱폖퓶볓쇋뗄믘맩뷡맻,뿉틔쪹컒쏇럖컶쏱펪뫍럇쏱펪벨킧튻룶욽랽쿮틔볬퇩럇쿟탔맘쾵ꆣ믘맩쒣탍캪:닮뇰뗄풭틲뺿뺹뫎퓚ꆣyit=Α+ΒjPijt+ΧX+Κ1C5it+Κ2C25it(3)쪹폃듋믘맩쒣탍뗄뫃뒦퓚폚,컒쏇뿉틔퓚럖컥ꆡ볬퇩뷡맻뷢돶쏱펪뮯킧펦뗄춬쪱,맛달막좨벯훐뛔헢룶퇹놾웳튵벨킧뗄펰쿬ꆣ컒쏇뷸튻늽붫헢룶퇹놾럖캪(튻)쏱펪뮯킧펦쏱펪뫍럇쏱펪솽룶럖퇹놾,뛔헢솽룶ퟓ퇹놾럖뇰쪹폃믘맩쒣탍(1),컒쏇랢쿖쏱펪뮯뛔웳튵뗄뷸탐믘맩ꆣ쒿뗄퓚폚맛달뛔폚늻춬쯹폐좨탔훊뗄쿺쫛쫕죫ꆢ죋뻹쿺쫛쫕죫ꆢ췐뇶Q횵폐쿔훸뗄헽웳튵,웳튵벨킧뫍돖막벯훐뛈횮볤뗄맘쾵닮틬뫎쿲킧펦,벴쏱펪짏쫐릫쮾퓚헢3룶랽쏦쿔훸뗘폅퓚ꆣ믘맩쒣탍폫헻쳥퇹놾싔폐늻춬ꆣ폚럇쏱펪짏쫐릫쮾ꆣ뛸퓚웤쯻6룶횸뇪:맍풱죋yit=Α+ΧX+ΚC5it(4)쫽ꆢ돉놾ö쿺쫛뇈ꆢ쿺쫛쫕틦ꆢ뺻닺쫕틦ꆢퟜ닺yit=Α+ΧX+Κ1C5it+Κ2C25it(5)쫕틦뫍죋뻹뺻샻죳랽쏦,쏱펪뮯킧펦늢늻쿔훸ꆣ떫웤훐쏱펪뮯뗄탩쓢뇤솿놻싔좥ꆣ막좨벯훐뛈뛔폚돉놾ö쿺쫛뇈,쏱펪뮯뇤솿뗄쾵쫽캪뢺,뛔폚뇤솿C5뫍뿘훆뇤솿폫(2)ꆢ(3)쪽쿠춬ꆣ컒쏇풤웚,맍풱죋쫽뫍4룶샻죳횸뇪,쏱펪뮯뇤솿뗄쾵쫽캪뛔폚늻춬쯹폐훆탔훊뗄웳튵,막좨벯훐뛈폫웳튵헽,뇭쏷쏱펪뗄벨킧폅폚럇쏱펪ꆣ벨킧볤뗄맘쾵믡폐쯹늻춬,헢뿉틔춨맽뇈뷏솽룶평폚욪럹맘쾵,뇭4훐뷶놨룦쇋쏱펪뮯킧펦ퟓ퇹놾뗄믘맩쾵쫽Κ뾴돶ꆣ쿔훸뗄3룶벨킧횸뇪뗄볲튪믘맩뷡맻ꆣ평폚쒣탍(죽)훷튪릫쮾훎샭믺훆뛔웳튵벨킧뗄펰쿬뗄뛀솢뇤솿뇈뷏뛠,컒쏇횻톡좡쇋쏱펪뮯뗄탩쓢ꆪꆪ횱뷓볬퇩뇤솿ꆢퟜ닺뫍닆컱룜룋3룶뇤솿뗄쾵쫽,뛸싔좥퓚볬퇩쇋막좨벯훐뛈뛔웳튵벨킧뗄펰쿬뫳,쇋웤쯻뿘훆뇤솿뗄쾵쫽ꆣ삨뫅훐뗄쫽ퟖ쫇쾵쫽t컒쏇ퟛ뫏뾼달룷룶훷튪뗄릫쮾훎샭믺훆뛔웳튵벨볬퇩횵뗄P횵ꆣ킧뗄펰쿬ꆣ컒쏇톡좡뗄랴펳릫쮾훎샭믺훆뗄뇤솿컒쏇뗃돶솽룶폐틢틥뗄뷡싛ꆣ뗚튻,쏱펪뗄쿺캪:(1)뗚튻듳막뚫돖막뇈샽;(2)뗚뛾떽뗚컥캻듳쫛쫕죫ꆢ죋뻹쿺쫛쫕죫뫍췐뇶Q횵쿔훸룟폚럇쏱막뚫돖막뇈샽;(3)룟닣맜샭헟돖막뇈샽;(4)뚭쫂펪ꆣ뺡맜듓횮잰뗄쏨쫶탔춳볆뷡맻뾴떽쏱펪뗄쿺믡췢늿뚭쫂뇈샽ꆣ뛔헻쳥퇹놾뗄믘맩쒣탍캪:쫛쫕죫풶풶뗍폚럇쏱펪,떫쫇퓚뿘훆쇋웳튵맦쒣ꆢyit=Α+ΒjPijt+ΧX+Κ1C1it+Κ2C21it+Κ3C2it탐튵ꆢ뗘폲뗈틲쯘뗄펰쿬횮뫳,쏱펪뮯죔좻뿉틔듸+Κ4Mit+Κ5Eit(6)살쿺쫛쫕죫뗄쳡룟,늢쟒퓚10%뗄훃탅뛈쿔훸ꆣ웤훐놻뷢쫍뇤솿쫇웳튵벨킧;Pijt쫇듺뇭쏱뛔폚죋뻹쿺쫛쫕죫,쏱펪뮯뇤솿퓚5%뗄훃탅뛈펪뮯뗄탩쓢뇤솿,X듺뇭쇋튻쾵쇐맦쒣ꆢ놾뷡짏쿔훸캪헽ꆣ뇭쏷쇋쏱펪퓚헢랽쏦뻟폐뻸뛔폅쫆ꆣ릹ꆢ쪱볤ꆢ뗘폲뫍탐튵뗄뿘훆뇤솿ꆣC1itꆢC2itꆢMitꆢEit췐뇶Q횵뗄믘맩뷡맻뇭쏷쫐뎡뛔쏱펪뗄움볛풶럖뇰쫇퇹놾웳튵i퓚t쓪훐뗚튻듳막뚫돖막뇈풶룟폚럇쏱펪,쏱펪뮯뇤솿뗄쾵쫽캪,쟒웤t샽ꆢ뗚뛾떽뗚컥캻듳막뚫돖막뇈샽ꆢ룟닣맜샭헟돖볬퇩P횵캪0,쿔쪾벫룟뗄쿔훸탔ꆣ뷡뫏횮잰쏨쫶막뇈샽ꆢ뚭쫂믡췢늿뚭쫂뇈샽ꆣ틲캪뗚튻듳막뚫돖탔춳볆뫍믘맩럖컶뗄뷡맻,뿉틔랢쿖쏱펪룷랽쏦막뇈샽폫웳튵벨킧뿉쓜듦퓚럇쿟탔맘쾵,컒쏇볓뗄벨킧좷쪵뫃폚럇쏱펪ꆣ짏쇋뗚튻듳막뚫돖막뗄욽랽쿮ꆣ뛔쏱펪폫럇쏱펪뗚뛾,맛달ퟜ닺뫍닆컱룜룋헢솽룶뿘훆뇤쫀뷧뺭볃3ꆡ2004쓪뗚11웚ꆡꆤ10ꆤ
헅뾡쾲ꆡ헅ꆡ뮪ꆡꆡ솿뛔3룶벨킧횸뇪뗄펰쿬뿉틔뗃돶튻킩폐좤뗄랢ꆡꆡ뇭4만뚨킧펦쒣탍믘맩뷡맻쿖ꆣퟜ닺뛔쿺쫛쫕죫뫍죋뻹쿺쫛쫕죫뗄펰쿬쿔놻뷢쫍뇤솿1놻뷢쫍뇤솿2놻뷢쫍뇤솿3훸캪헽,뇭쏷맦쒣뷏듳뗄웳튵뗄퓋펪킧싊췹췹뷏뷢쫍뇤솿쿺쫛쫕죫죋뻹쿺쫛쫕죫췐뇶Q횵룟ꆣ떫쫇ퟜ닺뛔췐뇶Q횵뗄쾵쫽쿔훸캪뢺,뇭쏱펪뮯킧펦쏷쫐뎡욫낮맦쒣뷏킡뗄웳튵ꆣ쇭튻룶쿖쿳쫇닆컱()()()룜룋뛔췐뇶Q뗄쾵쫽캪뢺ꆣ튻룶웳튵뗄닆컱룜룋ퟜ닺풽룟()()(),웤럧쿕뻍풽듳,틲듋퓚튻킩랢듯맺볒(죧쏀맺)뫍탍맺볒(죧뷝뿋),닆컱룜룋폫췐뇶Q횵닆컱룜룋()()(돉뢺쿠맘맘쾵ꆣ뛸훐맺뗄쟩뿶잡잡쿠랴ꆣ컒쏇죏)쪱볤탩쓢뇤솿ꇌꇌꇌ캪헢튻쿖쿳뫍훐맺막쫐뗄튻킩쳘헷폐맘,훐맺뗄뗘폲탩쓢뇤솿ꇌꇌꇌ짏쫐릫쮾퓚죚쪱욫낮엤막믲퓶랢,늻쾲뮶풼쫸탐튵탩쓢뇤솿ꇌꇌꇌ쿠뛔뷏펲뗄틸탐듻뿮믲햮좯,뛸엤막믲퓶랢뗃떽쓢뫏폅뛈뗄뷰폖췹췹뗃늻떽폐킧쪹폃,쯹틔쫐뎡뛔듋샠웳튵움볛뷏닮ꆣ헢뻍떼훂쇋뢺햮뇈뷏뛠ꆢ닆컱룜룋뛔쿺쫛쫕죫뗄펰쿬듦퓚ퟅꆰUꆱ탎맘쾵ꆣ뇈뷏럇쏱뇈뷏룟뗄웳튵룼쫜쫐뎡뮶펭ꆣ펪뫍쏱펪뗄ퟓ퇹놾믘맩쾵쫽,컒쏇뿉틔랢쿖늻춬(뛾)막좨벯훐뛈폫웳튵벨킧ꆪꆪ볤뷓볬퇩쯹폐훆웳튵뗄릫쮾훎샭믺훆뛔웳튵벨킧뗄펰쿬솦짏쫶뗄뺭퇩럖컶뷡맻뿏뚨쇋쏱펪퓚벨킧랽쏦쫇늻춬뗄ꆣ뛔폚럇쏱펪뫍럇쏱펪뗄죋뻹쿺쫛쫕죫,뗄폅쫆ꆣ퓚헢튻믹뒡짏,컒쏇뾪쪼첽톰닺짺헢튻폅컥듳막뚫돖막욽랽쿮뗄쾵쫽럖뇰캪뫍쫆뗄쓚퓚풭틲ꆣ횱맛룐쫜룦쯟컒쏇,쏱펪뫍럇쏱펪9145,쿔쪾솽훖웳튵뗄ꆰUꆱ탎맘쾵쟺쿟뗄킱싊쿠릫쮾훎샭뗄훊솿믡폐쯹늻춬,뛸늻춬뗄릫쮾훎샭닮짵풶ꆣ뛔폚쏱펪,쯦ퟅ막좨벯훐돌뛈뗄쳡룟,웳쮮욽뫜뿉쓜쫇떼훂늻춬벨킧뗄풭틲ꆣ컒쏇쫗쿈첽튵뗄죋뻹쿺쫛쫕죫믡벱뻧쳡룟;뛸뛔폚럇쏱펪,뺡쳖막좨벯훐뛈뛔벨킧뗄ퟷ폃,틲캪듋막좨벯훐뛈맜막좨벯훐뛈뗄쳡룟튲믡듸살죋뻹쿺쫛쫕죫뗄쳡쫇퓚튻룶쫐뎡ꆢ램싉쳥쾵쿠뛔늻돉쫬뗄뮷뺳쿂ퟮ룟,떫쫇쳡룟뗄럹뛈쿠뇈쏱펪튪킡뫜뛠ꆣ캪훘튪뗄릫쮾훎샭믺훆ꆣ뛔폚췐뇶Q횵튲듦퓚샠쯆쟩뿶ꆣ뺡맜쏱펪뫍뻟쳥뛸퇔,컒쏇룹뻝쒣탍(2)뫍(3)뛔헻쳥퇹럇쏱펪뗄막좨벯훐뛈폫Q횵횮볤뚼듦퓚ꆰUꆱ탎놾뷸탐믘맩,뛸쪹폃쒣탍(4)뫍(5)뛔쏱펪뫍럇쏱맘쾵,떫쫇쏱펪뗄ꆰUꆱ탎쟺쿟뗄킱싊듳폚럇쏱펪,펪뗄럖퇹놾뷸탐믘맩ꆣ뇭5훐튲뷶쇐뻙쇋돖막벯쮵쏷춬퇹돌뛈뗄막좨벯훐뛈뗄쳡룟,쏱펪뗄Q횵훐뛈쿔훸뗄믘맩뷡맻:퓚7룶놻뷢쫍뇤솿훐죋뻹퓶볓듳폚럇쏱펪ꆣ헢튻뷡맻쿔쪾,막좨벯훐룸웳튵쿺쫛ꆢퟜ닺쫕틦싊ꆢ죋뻹뺻샻죳ꆢ췐뇶Q폫횮폐듸살뗄펰쿬늻좷뚨ꆣ떫릫쮾훎샭믺훆뗄킧싊퓲틲쿔훸뗄맘솪;뛸뛔폚잰컥듳막뚫돖막뗄뫕럒듷뛻웳튵탔훊늻춬뛸폐쯹닮뇰,쏱펪뗄킧맻튪룟폚럇횸쫽,횻폐췐뇶Q폫횮폐쿔훸맘솪,컒쏇튲늻퓙쏱펪ꆣ틔뇭룱탎쪽놨룦ꆣ뛔폚룷놻뷢쫍뇤솿,컒쏇럖뇰쇐뛔뇈뇭4뫍뇭5훐쏱펪뮯킧펦뗄쾵쫽튲뿉틔뻙뛔ퟜ퇹놾ꆢ쏱펪뫍럇쏱펪ퟓ퇹놾뗄볲튪믘맩뷡횤쪵짏쫶뷡싛ꆣ믘맩쒣탍(1)뫍믘맩쒣탍(3)뗄맻,냼삨돖막벯훐뛈ꆢퟜ닺ꆢ닆컱룜룋뗄믘맩쾵캩튻쟸뇰쫇쒣탍(3)볓죫쇋막좨벯훐뛈뇤솿,뛸쫽벰P횵ꆣ뛔폚ퟜ퇹놾믘맩,컒쏇뮹쇐뻙쇋쏱펪웤쯻뇤솿뚼쿠춬ꆣ쪹폃쒣탍(1)뛔헻쳥퇹놾뗄죋뻹뮯뇤솿뗄쾵쫽벰웤P횵틔릩닎뾼ꆣ쿺쫛쫕죫뫍췐뇶Q횵믘맩,쏱펪뮯킧펦쾵쫽럖뇰듓뇭5훐뿉틔뾴돶,뛔폚죋뻹쿺쫛쫕죫,럇쏱캪(P횵)뫍(P횵),쿔쪾돶펪뫍쏱펪럖퇹놾믘맩,컥듳막뚫돖막솿벰웤욽랽솽샠웳튵쿔훸뗄벨킧닮뇰ꆣ뛸쪹폃쒣탍(3)뛔헻뗄쾵쫽럖뇰쿔훸캪뢺뫍캪헽ꆣ헢쮵쏷돖막벯훐뛈쳥퇹놾뗄죋뻹쿺쫛쫕죫뫍췐뇶Q횵믘맩,쏱펪뮯킧펦쾵쫽럖뇰캪(P횵)뫍(P쫀뷧뺭볃3ꆡ2004쓪뗚11웚ꆡꆤ11ꆤ
ꆡꆡ쏱펪짏쫐릫쮾뗄뺭펪벨킧ꆢ쫐뎡볛횵뫍훎샭뷡릹뇭5잰컥듳막뚫돖막뇈샽폫웳튵벨킧뗄맘쾵헻쳥퇹놾럇쏱펪쏱펪놻뷢쫍뇤솿:죋뻹쿺쫛믘맩쾵쫽P횵믘맩쾵쫽P횵믘맩쾵쫽P횵잰컥듳막뚫돖막잰컥듳막뚫돖막욽랽ퟜ닺닆컱룜룋쏱펪뮯킧펦쓢뫏폅뛈놻뷢쫍뇤솿:ퟜ닺쫕틦싊믘맩쾵쫽P횵믘맩쾵쫽P횵믘맩쾵쫽P횵잰컥듳막뚫돖막잰컥듳막뚫돖막욽랽ퟜ닺닆컱룜룋쏱펪뮯킧펦쓢뫏폅뛈놻뷢쫍뇤솿:죋뻹뺻샻죳믘맩쾵쫽P횵믘맩쾵쫽P횵믘맩쾵쫽P횵잰컥듳막뚫돖막잰컥듳막뚫돖막욽랽ퟜ닺닆컱룜룋쏱펪뮯킧펦쓢뫏폅뛈놻뷢쫍뇤솿:췐뇶Q믘맩쾵쫽P횵믘맩쾵쫽P횵믘맩쾵쫽P횵잰컥듳막뚫돖막잰컥듳막뚫돖막욽랽ퟜ닺닆컱룜룋쏱펪뮯킧펦쓢뫏폅뛈횵)ꆣ퓚뾼싇쇋막좨벯훐뛈뛔벨킧뗄펰쿬헽뗄펮샻쓜솦ꆣ헢쪵볊짏쫇맺폐웳튵뗄만벲ꆣ벴횮뫳,뒿듢뗄쏱펪뮯킧펦틑뺭복죵짵훁쿻쪧,쮵컒쏇춨뎣쯹쮵뗄맺폐웳튵뗄퓶뎤횻쫇ꆰ듖럅쪽ꆱ쏷쏱펪뮯킧펦퓚뫜듳돌뛈짏쫇튻훖ꆰ릫쮾훎샭킧뗄,쯻쏇맘힢뗄쫇ꆰퟶ듳ꆱ뛸늻쫇ꆰퟶ뫃ꆱꆣ웤뛾,럇펦ꆱꆣ쏱펪짏쫐릫쮾뗄ꆰ쯭뗀킧펦ꆱ럇뎣퇏훘ꆣ듳막뚫돖뛔폚럇쏱펪,ퟜ닺쫕틦싊뫍죋뻹뺻샻죳폫막뗄퓶볓쪹뗃쯻쏇폐룼듳뗄뇣샻뫍믽벫탔좥쪵쪩돖막벯훐뛈돊쿖돶쿔훸뗄떹ꆰUꆱ탎맘쾵,떫쫇뛔ꆰ쯭뗀탐캪ꆱ,쯰몦쇋웳튵샻틦ꆣ뺭뎣놻웘맢뗄짏쫐폚쏱펪,헢솽룶횸뇪폫돖막벯훐뛈횮볤돊늻쿔훸릫쮾폫쒸릫쮾횮볤ꆰ맘솪붻틗ꆱ뻍쫇튻룶횤쏷ꆣ뗄헽ꆰUꆱ탎맘쾵ꆣ헢튻뷡맻뇭쏷,럇쏱펪훐돖막벯(죽)훷튪릫쮾훎샭믺훆폫웳튵벨킧ꆪꆪ횱훐뛈뗄쳡룟믡틽웰샻죳뗄쿂붵,뛸쏱펪좴늻쫇헢뷓볬퇩퇹ꆣ컒쏇ퟛ뫏뗘볬퇩튻쾵쇐훷튪릫쮾훎샭믺훆뛔컒쏇죏캪뿉쓜뗄풭틲폐뛾,웤튻,럇쏱펪뗄듳웳튵벨킧뗄펰쿬ꆣ헢킩훷튪릫쮾훎샭믺훆냼삨:막뚫맘힢뗄쫇죋뻹쿺쫛쫕죫횮샠횸뇪,뛸늢럇헦(1)뗚튻듳막뚫돖막뇈샽;(2)뗚뛾떽뗚컥듳막뚫쫀뷧뺭볃3ꆡ2004쓪뗚11웚ꆡꆤ12ꆤ
헅뾡쾲ꆡ헅ꆡ뮪ꆡꆡ돖막뇈샽;(3)룟벶맜샭닣돖막뇈샽;(4)뚭쫂믡쏷쿔뗄ꆰUꆱ탎맘쾵,헢폫잰튻늿럖훐죋뻹쿺쫛쫕췢늿뚭쫂뇈샽;(5)CEO쫇럱평뚭쫂뎤볦죎(탩죫뫍잰컥듳막뚫돖막뗄맘쾵쿠쯆ꆣ춬퇹뗄쫇솽쳵쓢뇤솿,볦죎캪1);(6)웳튵쫇럱춬쪱폐B막믲HꆰUꆱ탎쟺쿟뗄킱싊쿠닮뫜듳ꆣ럇쏱펪뗄뗚튻듳막막(탩쓢뇤솿,죧폐B막믲H막캪1)ꆣ뚫돖막뛾듎쿮쾵쫽캪,쏱펪퓲캪ꆣ뇭6쫇쒣탍(6)ꆢ(7)뛔ퟜ퇹놾뫍럖퇹놾뗄믘뿉틔뾴떽,뗚튻듳막뚫돖막헢튻릫쮾훎샭믺훆뗄맩뷡맻,폫횮잰튻퇹,횻쇐뻙쇋쿔훸탔뷏뫃뗄믘맩킧싊퓚솽샠웳튵훐폐ퟅ쳬죀횮뇰ꆣ웤쯻릫쮾훎샭뷡맻ꆣ뿉틔뾴떽,뛔폚ퟜ퇹놾뫍쏱펪ꆢ럇쏱펪ퟓ퇹믺훆뛔죋뻹쿺쫛쫕죫뗄펰쿬늢늻쿔훸ꆣ놾,죋뻹쿺쫛쫕죫폫뗚튻듳막뚫돖막뇈샽돊쿖뫜뇭6훷튪릫쮾훎샭믺훆폫웳튵벨킧ퟜ퇹놾럇쏱펪쏱펪놻뷢쫍뇤솿:죋뻹쿺쫛쫕죫믘맩쾵쫽P횵믘맩쾵쫽P횵믘맩쾵쫽P횵뗚튻듳막뚫돖막뇈샽뗚튻듳막뚫돖막뇈샽욽랽뗚뛾떽뗚컥캻듳막뚫돖막뫕럒듷뛻횸쫽탩쓢뇤솿룟맜돖막뇈샽췢늿뚭쫂뇈샽막H막탩쓢뇤솿ퟜ닺닆컱룜룋쏱펪뮯킧펦쓢뫏폅뛈놻뷢쫍뇤솿:췐뇶Q횵뗚튻듳막뚫돖막뇈샽뗚튻듳막뚫돖막뇈샽욽랽뗚뛾떽뗚컥캻듳막뚫돖막뫕럒듷뛻횸쫽탩쓢뇤솿룟맜돖막뇈샽췢늿뚭쫂뇈샽막H막탩쓢뇤솿ퟜ닺닆컱룜룋쏱펪뮯킧펦쓢뫏폅뛈ꆡꆡ퓚ퟜ퇹놾뫍럇쏱펪ퟓ퇹놾훐,췐뇶Q횵폫뗚뛸뛔폚쏱펪,뗚튻듳막뚫돖막뇈샽뛔췐뇶Q튻듳막뚫돖막뇈샽튲돊쿖ꆰUꆱ탎맘쾵,뛸뗚뛾떽횵뺡맜튲듦퓚ꆰUꆱ탎맘쾵,떫늢늻쿔훸ꆣ횵뗃힢틢뗚컥듳막뚫돖막튲뛔췐뇶Q횵폐ퟅ쿔훸뗄헽쿲뗄쫇,쏱펪ꆰUꆱ탎쟺쿟뗄킱싊틀좻듳폚럇쏱펪,쿔펰쿬ꆣ춬쪱뿉틔뾴떽,ퟜ퇹놾믘맩뷡맻훐뗄쏱펪뮯쪾뗚튻듳막뚫뗄ퟷ폃퓚쏱펪튪잿폚럇쏱펪ꆣ듋췢,킧펦쿔훸캪헽,쮵쏷쫐뎡뛔쏱펪뾴뫃ꆣ뛔폚쏱펪뗚뛾떽뗚컥듳막뚫돖막뇈샽뛔췐뇶Q쫀뷧뺭볃3ꆡ2004쓪뗚11웚ꆡꆤ13ꆤ
ꆡꆡ쏱펪짏쫐릫쮾뗄뺭펪벨킧ꆢ쫐뎡볛횵뫍훎샭뷡릹횵튲쎻폐쿔훸뗄펰쿬ꆣ헢튻쿖쿳퓚쏀맺횤좯쫐뎡퓚뗚튻듳막뚫돖막뇈샽뷏짙ꆣ훚쯹훜횪,뗚튻듳막훐튲듦퓚,뛸뛔듋뗄뷢쫍쫇쏀맺짏쫐릫쮾뗄막좨뚫냧퇝ퟅ쮫훘뷇즫,볈폐헽쏦뗄볠뚽맜샭닣뗄ퟷ뷡릹틑뺭듯떽ퟮ폅ힴ첬ꆣ헢튻뷢쫍쫇럱쫊폃폚컒폃폖폐뢺쏦뗄ꆰ쯭뗀킧펦ꆱ,틲듋쯼뛔웳튵볛횵뗄쏇뗄쏱펪짏쫐릫쮾,짐탨뷸튻늽뗄첽쯷ꆣ죧맻헢튻쳡짽좡뻶폚솽훖킧펦뗄쿠뛔잿죵ꆣ컒쏇뗄횱뷓뫍뷢쫍쫊폃,뻍룼볓횤쪵쇋컒쏇횮잰뗄뷡싛:쏱펪뗄볤뷓뺭퇩럖컶뚼뇭쏷,짏쫐릫쮾뗄ꆰ쯭뗀탐캪ꆱ퓚벨킧폅쫆쫇틲캪웤릫쮾훎샭뷡릹뷏럇쏱펪룼볓뫏훐맺쿠떱웕뇩,쏱펪짏쫐릫쮾튲늻샽췢,횻쫇쯼뗄샭ꆢ폐킧;쏱펪뮯킧펦쪵볊짏쫇ꆰ릫쮾훎샭킧펦ꆱꆣ뇭쿖탎쪽폐쯹늻춬뛸틑,럇쏱펪튻냣춨맽쇭튻맺퓚웤쯻뗄릫쮾훎샭믺훆훐,횻폐ꆰ릫쮾쫇럱폐폐쒸릫쮾틆릲폃풴,쏱펪퓲믹놾짏붫릲폃B막믲H막ꆱ헢튻믺훆뛔췐뇶Q횵폐쿔훸뗄헽쿲풴틆훁놳뫳뗄ퟔ좻죋ꆣ폐맘늿쏅펦룟뛈훘쫓헢펰쿬,컞싛쫇퓚ퟜ퇹놾ꆢ쏱펪뫍럇쏱펪,릫쮾폐B튻쿖쿳,럱퓲늻샻폚막쫐뗄뎤웚붡뾵랢햹ꆣ막믲H막뚼믡듸살췐뇶Q뗄쳡룟ꆣ헢쮵쏷춶헟뗚뛾,쏱펪훐웤쯻듳막뚫뛔뗚튻듳막뚫뗄훆돤럖죏쪶떽쇋램싉놣뮤헢튻믺훆뛔릫쮾훎샭ꆢ웳풼솦룼잿ꆣ틔뗚뛾떽뗚컥듳막뚫뗄돖막뇈샽살볆,튵벨킧뗄ퟷ폃,헢튲쮵쏷쳡룟훐맺램싉놣뮤뗄폐쏱펪욽뻹캪21%,쏷쿔룟폚럇쏱펪뗄%ꆣ뺭킧탔쫇쪮럖뇘튪뗄ꆣ퇩럖컶랢쿖,웤쯻듳막뚫돖막뇈샽뗄퓶볓폐훺폚뺭펪튵벨뫍웳튵볛횵뗄쳡룟,떫뛔쏱펪살붲늻업쇹ꆡퟜ뷡돽웤쯻듳막뚫폫뗚튻듳막뚫솪쫖뛸쯰몦킡막뚫샻틦뗄뿉쓜탔ꆣ횤볠믡펦훆뚩쿠맘램맦뫍쳵샽,뛅뻸놾컄틔뮦짮솽뗘뗄짏쫐릫쮾캪퇐뺿뛔쿳,쫗듳막뚫탎돉샻틦짏뗄슢뛏솪쏋ꆣ쿈뇈뷏쇋쏱펪폫럇쏱펪퓚뺭펪벨킧짏뗄닮틬,좻뗚죽,쏱펪훐룟벶맜샭죋풱돖막뇈샽싔룟폚뫳듓릫쮾훎샭뗄뷇뛈짮죫럖컶쇋떼훂헢튻닮틬뗄럇쏱펪,헢쮵쏷쏱펪퓚뛔뺭샭닣뗄벤샸-풼쫸믺훷튪풭틲,틔ퟜ뷡쏱펪훎샭뷡릹뗄쳘헷뫍맦싉ꆣ훆짨볆랽쏦폅폚럇쏱펪ꆣ떫듓맺볊뇈뷏살뾴,룟벶컒쏇뗄퇐뺿랢쿖,쏱펪뫍럇쏱펪퓚죧쿂4듳맜샭죋풱돖막헢튻쿖쿳퓚훐맺짐늻웕뇩,죧뫎짨벨킧랽쏦듦퓚ퟅ쏷쿔뗄닮틬ꆣ퓚퓋펪ힴ뿶랽쏦,럇볆돶뫏샭뗄돖막뇈샽살돤럖랢믓쯻쏇뗄믽벫탔붫쏱펪쯤좻폐맦쒣폅쫆,떫쫐뎡쿺쫛뫍돉놾뿘훆뗈쫇튻룶틢틥럇랲뗄죎컱ꆣ랽쏦쏱펪뗄킧싊햼쏷쿔폅쫆,쮵쏷쏱펪맜샭킧싊뗚쯄,퓚뚭쫂믡훐췢늿뚭쫂뇈샽랽쏦,쏱펪뗄뇈뷏룟ꆣ퓚펮샻랽쏦,쏱펪퓚쿺쫛믘놨싊ꆢ뺻닺췢늿뚭쫂뇈샽웕뇩룟폚럇쏱펪,쮵쏷쏱펪쿠뇈럇믘놨싊ꆢퟜ닺믘놨싊뫍죋뻹뺻샻죳4쿮횸뇪짏쏱펪룼볓힢훘헢튻릫쮾훎샭믺훆ꆣ떫뺭퇩럖컶랢뚼룟폚럇쏱펪,쿔쪾웤뷏잿뗄펮샻쓜솦ꆣ퓚놾뷡쿖,쒿잰짏쫐릫쮾쳡룟췢늿뚭쫂뇈샽뗄뿕볤늢늻릹랽쏦,쏱펪뗄뎤웚닆컱럧쿕튪킡폚럇쏱펪,뇭쿖듳,틲듋늻쓜튻캶뗘잿뗷췢늿뚭쫂뗄ퟷ폃,쯼뛔맜캪웤뎤웚닆컱룜룋뫜뗍ꆣ퓚쫐뎡움볛랽쏦,쏱펪뗄샭닣웰떽뗄볠뚽킧펦쿠떱폐쿞ꆣQ횵웕뇩룟폚럇쏱펪,헢쮵쏷쫐뎡짏뗄춶헟뛔돽쇋짏쫶헾닟몬틥횮췢,놾컄뮹쳡돶튻룶탂폚쏱펪뗄움볛뫍쫐뎡풤웚뻹룟폚럇쏱펪ꆣ떫쫇,평뗄맛뗣,벴뷶뷶듓뿘막좨짏붫쿖폐맺폐웳튵룄훆폚쏱펪뗄쯘훊솼?늻웫,잱퓚뗄럧쿕튲뷏룟ꆣ듓뗘돉쏱펪풶풶늻릻,룼캪훘튪뗄쫇룄뇤웳튵뗄훎샭쟸살뾴,쏱펪퓚뚫늿뗘쟸컞쿔훸폅쫆,떫퓚컷늿뗘뷡릹,튪짨솢튻룶뫏샭뗄막좨뷡릹,돤럖랢믓듳막쟸퓲폅쫆뺡쿔,ퟮ쇮죋뺪웦뗄쫇쏱펪퓚훐늿뗘쟸뚫뫍뚭쫂믡볠뚽룟벶맜샭죋풱뗄믺훆벰뺭샭닣뗄뗄뇭쿖짵훁톷폚럇쏱펪ꆣ벤샸-풼쫸믺훆,춬쪱붫듳막뚫ꆰ쯭뗀탐캪ꆱ뗄뢺컒쏇죏캪,쏱펪뫍럇쏱펪퓚벨킧짏뗄닮틬훷쏦킧펦붵훁ퟮ뗍ꆣ뺡맜듳뛠쫽쏱펪죔쫴폚볒ퟥ웳튪쫇평웤릫쮾훎샭믺훆킧싊뗄닮틬퓬돉뗄ꆣ욽뻹튵,폐탭뛠훎샭짏뗄놡죵뮷뷚,떫볬퇩뷡맻쯆뫵뇭뛸퇔,쏱펪퓚훎샭뷡릹랽쏦폐죧쿂4듳쳘뗣ꆣ쏷훁짙퓚쿖뷗뛎쯼뮹쫇쿠떱폐킧뗄ꆣ뎤웚틔살,짧뗚튻,쏱펪뗄막좨벯훐돌뛈뗍폚럇쏱펪,쳥쿖믡짏쇷탐ퟅ횻잿뗷룄훆뛸뫶싔훎샭뷡릹뗄맛뗣늻쫀뷧뺭볃3ꆡ2004쓪뗚11웚ꆡꆤ14ꆤ
헅뾡쾲ꆡ헅ꆡ뮪ꆡꆡ좫쏦ꆪꆪ.ꆰ,놾컄쇐뻙뗄훐늿뗘쟸쏱펪벨킧톷폚럇쏱펪EnterpriseRestructuringinTransition:A뗄횤뻝횧돖쇋컒쏇뗄맛뗣ꆣQuantitativeSurvey.ꆱJournalofEconomicLiterature,2002,-792.닎뾼컄쿗D’Souza,JulietandMegginson,WilliamL.ꆰTheFinancial:andOperatingPerformanceofNewlyPrivatizedFirmsinthe쇵믛(2002):ꆶ평볒ퟥ짏쫐릫쮾뗄ꆰ튻막뛀듳ꆱ뾴쏱펪뗄막좨1990s.ꆱJournalofFinance54,1999,-1438.뷡릹ꆷ,ꆶ놾쫐뎡ꆷ뗚1웚ꆣDyck,Alexander.ꆰPrivatizationandCorporateGovernance:쯎쿗훐ꆢ싞쿾쇖(2003):ꆶ훐맺쏱펪짏쫐릫쮾닆컱ힴ뿶폫쿠맘Principles,Evidence,andFutureChallenges.ꆱTheWorldBank헾닟뗄뗷닩퇐뺿ꆷ,ꆶ닆뺭샭싛폫쪵볹ꆷ뗚24웚ꆣResearchObserver,2001,16(1),-84.킻냙죽ꆢ킻쫯맢(2003):ꆶ맘폚훐맺쏱펪짏쫐릫쮾뗍벨킧컊쳢Frydman,Roman;Gray,Cheryl;Hessel,Marekand뗄짮닣듎쮼뾼ꆷ,ꆶ닆뺭뿆톧ꆷ뗚1웚ꆣRapaczynski,Adsrej.ꆰWhenDoesPrivatizationWork?TheAnderson,JamesH.;Lee,YoungandMurrell,ꆰCompetitionandPrivatizationAmidstWeakInstitutions:TransitionEconomies.ꆱQuarterlyJournalofEconomics,.ꆱEconomicInquiry,,38(4),1999,114(4),,Ahmed;Jones,Leroy;Tandon,PankajandBoardman,AnthonyandVining,AidanR.ꆰOwnershipandVogelsang,:AComparisonoftheEnterprises,Oxford:OxfordUniversityPress,,MixedandState2OwnedEnterprises?ꆱLaPorta,RafaelandLopez2de2Silanes,Florencio.ꆰBenefitsJournalofLawandEconomics32,1989,.ꆱQuarterlyJournalofBoubakri,NarjessandCosset,Jean2Claude.ꆰTheFinancialEconomics,1999,114(4),:EvidenceLaffont,Jean2JacquesandTirole,.ꆱJournalofFinance53,1998,,MA:,,StijinandDjankov,Simeon.ꆰOwnershipLau,LawrenceJ.;Qian,YingyiandRoland,ꆰReformWithoutLosers:AnInterpretationofChina’sDual2Republic?ꆱJournalComparativeEconomics27,-TrackApproachtoTransition.ꆱ,2000,,,,William,andNetter,Jeffry.ꆰFromStatetoꆰManagementControlandPrivatizationintheUnitedKingdom.ꆱMarket:ASurveyofEmpiricalStudiesonPrivatization.ꆱRandJournalofEconomics,1999a,30(3),,June2001,39(2),-ꆪꆪ.ꆰPrivatization,:EvidenceFromtheUnitedKingdom.ꆱWorkingMegginson,William;Nash,RobertandvanRandenborgh,paper,HarvardBusinessSchool,Boston,.ꆰTheFinancialandOperatingPerformanceofNewlyDewenter,KathrynandMalatesta,PaulH.ꆰState2OwnedPrivatizedFirms:AnInternationalEmpiricalAnalysis.ꆱJournalandPrivately2OwnedFirms:AnEmpiricalAnalysisofofFinance49,1994,,LeverageandLabourIntensity.ꆱAmericanTian,GeorgeLihui.ꆰStateShareholdingandCorporateEconomicReview,2000,91(1),:AStudyofaUniqueChineseDataSet.ꆱWorkingDjankov,Simeon.ꆰOwnershipStructureandEnterprisepaper,LondonBusinessSchool,London,.ꆱ,JohnandYarrow,George.ꆰEconomicEconomicStudy,1999a,41(1),.ꆱJournalofEconomicPerspectiveꆪꆪ.ꆰTheRestructuringofInsider2DominatedFirms:A5,1991,.ꆱEconomicTransition,1999b,7(2),,XiaonianandWang,Yan.ꆰ.ꆱChinaDjankov,SimeonandMurrell,Peter.ꆰTheDeterminantsofEconomicReview,,10(1),:AnAssessmentoftheEvidence.ꆱUniversityofMaryland,WorkingpaperCollege(뷘룥:2004쓪7퓂ꆡ퓰죎뇠벭:쯎횾룕)Park,MD,2000.쫀뷧뺭볃3ꆡ2004쓪뗚11웚ꆡꆤ15ꆤ
ꆡꆡꆡꆡPerformance,MarketValueandCooperateGovernanceofthePrivateListedCompaniesinChinaZhangJunxiZhangHuaThispaperfirstcomparestheoperationaldifferencesbetweentheprivateandnon2privatecompanies,andthenstudiesthemainreasonsforsuchdifferences,,profitability,capitalstructureandmarketvaluationthannon2privatecounterparts;however,giventheirdiversebackground,,,wefindthatprivatecompanieshavemorereasonableandeffectivegovernancestructureinfourareas:ownershipconcentration,monitoringfromlargeminorityshareholders,managerialshareholding,andthefractionofexternaldirectorsonacompany’,,:AGrangerCausalityTestWangYongqiThisarticlerootsinBaldwinandMazumdar’,’’scasethetradecompositiondoesn’taffectgrowthremarkably.쫀뷧뺭볃3ꆡ2004쓪뗚11웚ꆡꆤ80ꆤ
