ֻ17जֻ3௹ ᇏଲն࿐࿐Б(ഠ߶॓࿐ϱ) 2011୍6ᄅ J. CENT. SOUTH UNIV. (SOCIAL SCIENCE) Jun. 2011 ሧჷӁြѩܓᇗቆᇏ֥Ѱᒮٳ༅ ޣđൎԽٯ (༆ҍࣜն࿐ܵ॓࿐ა۽ӱ࿐ჽđ༆ჰđ030006) ᅋေğᄝሧჷࣅಌ֥Мࣟ༯đ๙ݖ࡙ѩᇗቆটิۚӁြࠢᇏ؇đิശӁڸࡆᆴđؓࡆ఼ሧჷӁြ֥൧ӆࣩᆚ৯ֹࠣॖӻ࿃ؿᅚି৯ऎႵᇗေၩၬbᄝ൧ӆࣜ࠶ߌᇏđ࡙ѩᇗቆॖၛФुቔ൞Ѱᒮݖӱbູਔ՜ࣉఒြѩܓđࡹ৫ਔၛնࠢఒြູѩܓٚބֹٚܠۄఒြູФѩܓٚቔູᇶေ࣮ؓའ֥҂ປૅྐ༏Ѱᒮଆđؓѩܓච֥ٚѰᒮݖӱࣉྛਔധೆ֥ٳ༅bࢲކࣜဒؿགྷđෙಖᆟکҕაਔሧჷӁြ֥ᇗቆᆜކݖӱđ൞ѩܓᇶุ၇ಖႵсေབྷ༥ෆࠢؓٚྐ༏đരᇗ࿊ᄴѩܓٚσđࠇᆀ؎൞ڎࢤ൳ѩܓٚσbࣜݖԉٳѰᒮݖӱ֥ѩܓđࡼႵ০Ⴟѩܓު֥ఒြؿᅚބᇗቆᆜކᅞ֥ಆ૫ܼb ܱՍğሧჷӁြĠఒြѩܓĠ҂ປૅྐ༏ѰᒮĠປૅНွථनޙĠնఒြࠢĠֹٚܠۄఒြ ᇏٳোݼğG647 ໓ངѓ്ğA ໓ᅣщݼğ1672-3104(2011)03−0021−05 ୍࣍টݓࡅӐ֝ሧჷӁြቓնቓႪđᄝ؟۱ྛູbᆃ္൞ѩܓࣜӈၛඨ০ൌീ֥၂۱ᇶေჰၹbြྛᇗቆᆜކᅞbᄝ2009୍֥༆િฒྛြڿ۪ਸ਼ຓೂݔФѩܓఒြ֥ࣜႏሑঃഉݺđ൞ః෮ᄝֹᇏđϷঀᇶุႮ2200؟ࡅࡨഒ֞ਔ130ࡅbطݓ֥ᇶေࣜ࠶৯ਈࠇᆀܠۄఒြđطѩܓުॖି߶ڿэ ࡅᄝ“ؽ”ܿ߃ᇏิԛ֞2015୍ᄝಆݓေྙӮ10ఃა෮ᄝֹ֥ᆟᇍaഠ߶ބࣜ࠶ܱ༢đପહѩܓࣼ۱ၡؕࠩބ10۱5 000ຣؕࠩնિฒఒြࠢbॖିᄥმ۷ࡆ࡛֥ซbᆃൈೂݔϜѩܓٚބФѩ2010୍۽ྐ҆ิԛࡆॹۑํྛြᇗቆđܝৣؿᅚ3ᇀܓٚᆭࡗ֥ࢌၞुӮࣜ࠶࿐ંᇏ֥ѰᒮྛູđϜѩ5ࡅնۑఒđᇶေଢ֥ࣼ൞ေڿэھྛြӁြࠢᇏ؇ܓݖӱ֥ૄ၂۱ࢨ؍ुቔ൞၂۱ሰѰᒮđࠇᆀࡼᆜ[4]֮đطઋުӁିޓն֥གྷሑđՖطᄹ఼ۑఒᄝݓ࠽۱ѩܓݖӱुӮ၂۱ሰѰᒮđಖުҐႨѰᒮં֥ٚ[1]൧ӆഈ֥ࣩᆚ৯bᄝᆃ۱ݖӱᇏđෙಖ֞ଢభູᆸمٳ༅ఒြѩܓྛູđପહࡼႵᇹႿૼಒѩܓᇶุᄝྛᆟۄყؓሧჷӁြѩܓᇶุ֥ྛູఏ֞ਔ၂קቔѩܓݖӱᇏ֥ᇶ֝ቔႨđิۚѩܓ֥ྟބӮۿੱđ[2]Ⴈđ൞ᄝ൧ӆྐ༏߄ࡹഡބሧЧ൧ӆᄀটᄀປѩܓචٚିࠆ֤ડၩ֥০ၭđՖطิۚѩܓᇶุ[5]֥ྙ൝༯đѩܓᇶุᆭࡗ֥Ѱᒮࡼၛ൧ӆ่ࡱູࠎԤҕაᇗቆ֥ࠒࠞྟb э֤۷ࡆྟbၹՎႨѰᒮં֥ٚمٳ༅ఒြѩܓྛ ູ٤ӈсေđᆃؓႿิۚఒြѩܓ֥ྟđڿѩܓ၂a࣮֥ંࠎԤ ߌđႄ֝ѩܿٓѩܓ൧ӆࡲूa໗קؿᅚऎႵധჹၩၬb ఒြѩܓٗᆷఒြᆭࡗ֥࡙ѩა൬ܓྛູđ൞ఒ(၂) ҂ປૅྐ༏Ѱᒮ ြمದᄝ֩ሱ჻a֩ࡎႵӊ֥ࠎԤഈđၛ၂ק֥ࣜѰᒮ֥ࠎЧหᆘ൞۲۱Ѱᒮ֥ٚྛູ҂൞࠶ٚൔ౼֤ఃمದӁಃ֥ྛູđ൞ఒြࣉྛሧЧᄎൈ֥đط൞Ⴕ༵ުՑ֥b࠻ಖ۲۱Ѱᒮٚ҂ᄝ၂ቔބࣜႏ֥၂ᇕᇶေྙൔbႮႿሧჷఒြᄝሧჷᅝ۱ൈख़ྛູđପહᄝ؟ඔ౦ঃ༯đުྛູ֥ѰᒮٚᄝႵٚ૫֥หႪ൝đࡆᆭ০ၭᇶุࢠ؟đࣜӈ֤ѩሱ࠭ྛູᆭభॖၛܴҳ༵֞Ⴟሱ࠭ྛູ֥ఃѰᒮ[3]ܓݖӱᇏ֥؛گᄖ߄bᅦޡ֩ࣼิԛѩܓൌᇉ֥ٚྛູđ္ࠧު૫ࢨ؍࿊ᄴ֥ѰᒮٚႵܱႿభ૫ࢨഈ൞၂۱ЇওѩܓఒြaФѩܓఒြච֥ٚܢתބᅏ؍Ѱᒮࣉӱ֥ԉٳྐ༏bᆃᇕປಆਔࢳሱ࠭ྛູᆭభಃದၛࠣᆟکaᇏࢺ܄ඳ֩؟۱अᇏದҕა֥ѰᒮྛѰᒮࣉӱ֥Ѱᒮٚӫູ“Ⴕປૅྐ༏֥Ѱᒮٚ”bೂݔ ൬۠ರ௹ğ2010−11−25Ġྩ߭ರ௹ğ2011−03−15 ࠎࣁཛଢğ༆സ࿐ದჴ॓ࠃᄴႪሧᇹཛଢ(࣋ದഠ๏ݦ[2010]97ݼ) ቔᆀࡥࢺğޣ(1969−)đ୯đ༆ჰದđ༆ҍࣜն࿐ն࿐ࢃഽđᇶေ࣮ٚཟğ܄ඳᇍĠൎԽٯ(1986−)đ୯đ༆ҍࣜն࿐ն࿐ܵ॓࿐ა۽ӱ࿐ჽණൖ࣮ളđᇶေ࣮ٚཟğ܄ඳᇍ.
ᇏଲն࿐࿐Б(ഠ߶॓࿐ϱ) ֻ17ज 22 ၂۱Ѱᒮᇏ֥෮ႵѰᒮٚ൞ປૅྐ༏֥đૌᒮࣚବनޙ֥၂ᇕᇗေ֥ྙൔbၹՎႨປૅНွࣼӫᆃᇕѰᒮູ“ປૅྐ༏֥Ѱᒮථनޙٳ༅҂ປૅྐ༏֥Ѱᒮ֥नޙđປૅНွ”b൞ႮႿѰᒮٚॖି߶ܣၩЌૡࠇྐ༏Ԯ־҂ӎ֩ჰၹđѰථनޙсྶડቀᆃဢ֥၂ུေğ ᒮᇏ္ॖିթᄝᇀഒ҆ٳުྛູ֥Ѱᒮٚđمਔࢳေ1ğᄝ۲۱ྐ༏ࠢđ֞࿊ᄴ֥Ѱᒮٚсྶᄝሱ࠭ᆭభྛູ֥҆ٳࠇಆ҆Ѱᒮٚྛູ֥౦ঃbೂऎႵ၂۱ܱႿѰᒮղ֞ھྐ༏ࠢᇏૄ۱ࢫׄॖିྟ֥ݔ۲Ѱᒮٚᆺ൞၂Ցྟྛູٚđପહૌॖିࡼᆃ“؎”bؓ٤ֆࢫׄྐ༏ࠢđ၂۱“؎”ࣼ൞ѰᒮղᇕѰᒮ֒ቔ࣡Ѱᒮটԩđၹູᆃൈ۲۱Ѱᒮ֥ٚ֞ھྐ༏ࠢᇏ۲۱ࢫׄॖିྟ֥ۀੱٳ҃đؓھࢫׄྐ༏ٚ૫൞֥֩đა෮ႵѰᒮٚൈ࿊ᄴ֥࣡Ѱྐ༏ࠢđᄵॖࢳູ“؎ղ֞ھࢫ֥ׄۀੱູ1”b ᒮીႵહљbॖ൞đೂݔުྛູ֥ѰᒮٚᇏᆺႵေ2ğ۳ק۲Ѱᒮ֥ٚ“؎”đૌ֥Ҧс҆ٳѰᒮٚمु֞ሱ࠭࿊ᄴᆭభ֥Ѱᒮݖӱđࠇᆀྶ൞“ਙྟ”֥bࠧᄝ۲۱ྐ༏ࠢđ۳ק֞࿊ᄴ۲۱ѰᒮٚؓѰᒮࣉӱྐ༏֥ᅧႵҵၳđࠇᆀ۲ѰѰᒮ֥ٚ؎ބఃѰᒮ֥ٚ“ު࿃Ҧ”đ ھѰᒮٚᒮٚ҂൞ᆺႵ၂Ցྛູ࿊ᄴđಏمܴҳ֞భ૫֥֥ྛູࠣၛުࢨ؍֥“ު࿃Ҧ”đсྶሱ֥֤࠭ၭѰᒮࣉӱđପહૌࣼمࡼᆃဢ֥Ѱᒮुቔ൞࣡ࠇ௹ຬ֤ၭቋնbՎԩ෮໌“ު࿃Ҧ”ࠧཌྷႋ֥ѰᒮѰᒮđૌᆺି൞Ѱᒮđ൞ીႵܱႿѰᒮࣉӱປٚᄝ෮ษંྐ༏ࠢၛު֥ࢨ؍ᇏđᆌؓ෮Ⴕॖି౦ঃૅྐ༏֥Ѱᒮđૌӫູ“҂ປૅྐ༏֥Ѱೂޅྛູ֥ປᆜ࠹߃b ᒮ”bЧ໓ᆃ෮ษં֥ሧჷఒြѩܓᇗቆ҂ປૅྐေ3ğᄝनޙਫ਼ࣥഈ֥ྐ༏ࠢԩđ“؎”ႮН༏Ѱᒮᇏđ۲ѰᒮٚؓѰᒮࢲඏൈૄ۱Ѱᒮ֥ٚွථمᄵބѰᒮ֥ٚनޙҦथקb ֤ၭ൞ປಆౢԣ֥đ္ࠧѰᒮٚ൞Ⴕ“ປಆྐ༏”֥đေ4ğᄝ҂ԩႿनޙਫ਼ࣥഈ֥ྐ༏ࠢԩđ“؎”൞۲۱ѰᒮٚؓѰᒮࣉӱྐ༏֥ᅧႵҵၳđ෮ၛႮНွථمᄵބ۲ѰᒮٚᄝՎԩॖିႵ֥नޙҦथૌӫᆭູ҂ປૅྐ༏Ѱᒮb קb (ؽ) ሰѰᒮ ֒၂۱Ҧቆކࠣཌྷႋ֥؎ડቀᆃဢඹ۱ေ҂ປૅྐ༏Ѱᒮಯಖ൞Ѱᒮđಯಖ൞Ⴕൈđӫູ၂۱“ປૅНွථनޙ”bᆭ෮ၛӫᆃᇕनޙ༵ުՑđٳ҂ࢨ؍ࣉྛ֥đၹՎૌሱಖ߶མູ֞ປૅНွථनޙđ൮༵൞ၹֻູ֥ؽ۱ေ“ਙ০ႨሰѰᒮބ݂ବمࣉྛٳ༅b൞đၹູሧჷྟ”đაሰѰᒮປૅବनޙᇏ֥ሰѰᒮປૅྟေఒြᇗቆᇏѩܓ҂ປૅྐ༏Ѱᒮᇏթᄝ؟ࢫׄཌྷරĠఃՑ൞ၹູေ3ބေ4ᇏܿק“؎”֥ྙྐ༏ࠢđၹՎሰѰᒮބ݂ବم֥ႋႨࣼმ֞ਔ၂ӮсྶژކНွථمᄵbൌ࠽ഈđਙྟᄝሰѰᒮུ໙ีb ᇏࣼ൞ሰѰᒮປૅྟđᄝᆜ۱Ѱᒮᇏࣼ൞ବनޙđሰѰᒮ൞Ⴎ၂۱Ѱᒮֻ၂ࢨ؍ၛຓ֥ଖࢨ؍طᄝປಆປૅྐ༏Ѱᒮᇏđ෮Ⴕ֞࿊ᄴѰᒮष֥ު࿃Ѱᒮࢨ؍ܒӮ֥đႵԚྐ༏ࠢބࣉྛѰ֥ٚྐ༏ࠢ൞ֆࢫ֥ׄđૌؓѰᒮղ֞ھࢫ֥ׄᒮ෮ླေ֥ಆ҆ྐ༏đିܔሱӮ၂۱Ѱᒮ֥ჰѰᒮ֥“؎”ۀੱ֩Ⴟ1đᆃུ؎֒ಖ൞ડቀНွ၂҆ٳbᆃ۱קၬൌ࠽ഈႅݣਔࠫ۱ٚ૫֥ݣၬğ ථمᄵބၛఃѰᒮ֥ٚު࿃ҦູࠎԤ֥b۷ࣉ၂ֻ၂đၹູჰѰᒮЧദ҂߶ӮູჰѰᒮ֥ު࿃ࢨ҄đປૅНွථनޙᄝ࣡Ѱᒮᇏࣼ൞ବनޙb ؍đၹՎሰѰᒮ҂ିՖჰѰᒮֻ֥၂۱ࢫׄषđࠧ ჰѰᒮ҂൞ሱ֥࠭၂۱ሰѰᒮb ֻؽđЇݣਔ෮ႵᄝԚࢫׄᆭު֥࿊ᄴࢫׄބؽaѩܓѰᒮଆ֥ࡌഡ ᇔׄđ҂Їݣ҂۵ᄝՎԚࢫׄᆭު֥ࢫׄb ֻđ҂ٳ۩ޅ֥ྐ༏ࠢbࠧೂݔ၂࿊ᄴࢫׄᄝݓሧჷఒြѩܓࠃᇏđѩܓٚބФѩܓЇݣᄝ၂ሰѰᒮᇏᄵЇݣھࢫ֥ׄྐ༏ࠢᇏ֥෮Ⴕࢫٚᆭࡗ֥ࢌၞྛູཁಖ൞၂ᇕѰᒮྛູb၂ٚ૫đႮׄсྶЇݣᄝھሰѰᒮᇏbᆃ၂่ॖၛඪ൞ህؓႵႿФѩܓٚ҂ປಆਔࢳሱ࠭ྛູᆭభ֥Ѱᒮࣉӱđၹ؟ࢫׄྐ༏֥ࠢ҂ປૅྐ༏Ѱᒮط֥b ՎھѰᒮ൞҂ປૅྐ༏ѰᒮĠਸ਼၂ٚ૫đѩܓࠃᇏֻ၂ބֻؽؓ҂ປૅྐ༏Ѱᒮބؓປૅྐ༏ච֥ٚྛູ҂൞ൈđط൞Ⴕ༵ުՑ֥đܣՎѰᒮѰᒮѩીႵહљđطֻ൞ህᆌؓ҂ປૅߎॖၛुӮ൞ѰᒮbႮႿཬિঀ၂קေࢤ൳ѩܓđྐ༏Ѱᒮ֥b ڎᄵФܱ๔đ࣮ૌބऎႵѩܓሧ֥۬ఒြᆭࡗ֥() ປૅНွථनޙ ᄝЧ໓෮ࡹ৫֥ሧჷఒြѩܓᇗቆଆඋႿປྛູીႵၩၬbၹՎđ࿊౼ऎႵѩܓሧ֥۬նఒြಆ҂ປૅྐ༏֥ѰᒮđھѰᒮ֥नޙඋႿሰѰࠢބֹٚܠۄఒြቔູ࣮ؓའđࡹ৫҂ປૅྐ༏
ֻ3௹ ޣđൎԽٯğሧჷӁြѩܓᇗቆᇏ֥Ѱᒮٳ༅ 23[6−7]Ѱᒮଆđѩቓԛೂ༯ࡌഡğ ሧჷఒြࠢѩܓֹٚܠۄሧჷఒြ֥ۀੱֻູ၂đѩܓٚ൞նሧჷఒြࠢđႮႿࣜႏြP(a/b)b ࠛaҍༀሑঃၛࠣ܄ඳ֥ؿᅚᅞ҂đૌႻٳֻູࢨ؍൞ֹٚܠۄሧჷఒြ൞ڎࢤ൳ѩܓbႮႿҵఒြॖି߶๙ݖ୫ྴቔࡌௌ౼ֹٚܠۄሧჷఒြࣜႏሑঃݺ֥ఒြބࣜႏሑঃҵ֥ఒြĠФѩܓٚ൞֥ྐđ֝ᇁఃၛٳяնఒြ֥ࠢݺߊbၹՎđࣜႏሑঃ҂൞ޓݺႻॖၛົӻఒြᄎႏֹ֥ٚܠۄֹٚܠۄఒြေ൬ࠢնਈྐ༏ࣉྛ؎ࠇᆀथҦđൌሧჷఒြb ࠽ഈࣼ൞ေܙ࠹P(g)ބP(b)đՖط࠹ෘԛ҂ሑ༯ֻؽđѩܓචٚປಆ൞ሱᇶࣜႏaሱڵ႔aሱሱ֥࠭௹ຬ൬ၭbႨP(g/a)іൕնఒြࠢᄝิԛؿᅚބሱჿඏ֥ࣜ࠶ᇶุbѩܓ൞ڎղӮᆺ౼थѩܓ֥భิ༯൞ݺఒြ่֥ࡱۀੱđP(b/a)іൕնႿҕაѰᒮݖӱ֥ѩܓචٚđࣜ࠶ᇅ؇ބӁಃܱ༢֩ఒြࠢᄝิԛѩܓ֥భิ༯൞ҵఒြ่֥ࡱۀੱbቔູຓ҆ၹᄠ҂ॉ੮b ֹٚܠۄఒြᄝбࢠ҂ሑ༯ሱ֥࠭௹ຬ൬ၭၛֻđఒြѩܓѰᒮᇏ֥෮Ⴕҕაದ൞ྟ֥đުđ߶࿊ᄴၩࠇᆀ҂ၩФѩܓb ѩ҂߶ٕ٤ྟհ༂đ߶ᄝଖᇕჿඏ่ࡱ༯ቓԛࡌഡֹٚܠۄఒြ֥ሧӁܙࡎᆴູVđೂݔીሱ࠭০ၭቋն߄֥ྟथҦb ႵФѩܓđഡఃࡎᆴᄹӉੱູrbݺ֥նఒြࠢ0ֻඹđఒြѩܓචٚ҂թᄝԱଔb ఃࡎᆴᄹӉੱູrđҵ֥ఃࡎᆴᄹӉੱູrđѩgb ܓ௹ၿྛ০ੱູiđႵr<r<i<rbॉ੮ቋࡥֆ֥b0gѩܓٚൔđնఒြࠢၛࡎᆴູV֥ၿྛթॻᆰࢤaѩܓѰᒮଆ֥ࡹ৫ ܓઙֹٚܠۄఒြ֥ሧӁđᄵݺఒြൌീѩܓၛު֥ ࣪൬ၭູᆞđࠧV=V(r−i)>0Ġҵఒြൌീѩܓު֥ggॉ੮֞Фѩܓٚ҂ປಆਔࢳሱ࠭ྛູᆭభѰᒮࣉ࣪൬ၭູڵđࠧV=V(r−i)<0đ࣐ܵѩܓѩ҂ିູҵbbӱၛࠣѩܓචٚࢌูथҦ֥ݖӱđၹՎॖၛࡼሧఒြջটᆰࢤ֥ሧ൬ၭđ൞ಏॖၛູఃջট٤ᆰ[8−9]ჷఒြѩܓुӮၛ༯Ѱᒮ໙ี: [7]ࢤሧ൬ၭđॖႨVটіཬđႵV>0bؓႿҵఒSSֻ၂ࢨ؍൞ሱಖ࿊ᄴѩܓٚఒြ֥োbູࡥьြطđఃቋႪ࿊ᄴ൞Ⴈઙট֥ႪᇉሧӁࠆ౼٤ᆰࢤఏđࡌഡѩܓٚোႵਆᇕđၛT={g, b}іൕնሧ൬ၭĠؓႿݺఒြطđః۷ुᇗ֥൞ܓೆᆇᆞఒြࠢোࠢđఃᇏ: gսіݺఒြđࠧᆇᆞऎႵਅژކሱ࠭ఒြᅞؿᅚေ֥ႪᇉሧӁbֹٚܠۄఒݺ൬ၭބؿᅚൌ৯֥ఒြĠbսіҵఒြbႨP(g)іြФݺఒြѩܓު࣪൬ၭູᆞđࠧU=V(r−r)>0ĠФgg0ൕѩܓٚ൞ݺ֥նఒြ֥ࠢۀੱđP(b)іൕѩܓҵఒြѩܓު࣪൬ၭູڵđࠧU=V(r−r)<0đіൕѩbb0ٚ൞ҵ֥նఒြ֥ࠢۀੱđؽᆀડቀ: P(g)+ ܓުҵఒြֹؓٚܠۄఒြ෮ջট֥ڵིႨb֒ીႵP(b)=1b ղӮѩܓླྀၰൈđච֥ٚ൬ၭູ0bૌॖႨѰᒮֻؽࢨ؍൞ѩܓٚᄝܴҳ֞ሱ࠭ఒြ֥োၛঔᅚྙটіൕᆃ۱҂ປૅྐ༏ѰᒮݖӱđѰᒮٚުđ࿊ᄴ൞ڎေѩܓֹٚܠۄሧჷఒြbࡌഡݺ֥ն1ູնሧჷఒြࠢđѰᒮٚ2ֹູٚܠۄሧჷఒఒြࠢѩܓֹٚܠۄఒြ֥ۀੱູြ(1)b P(a/g)đҵ֥ æ ݺఒြ ҵఒြ æ æ ѩܓ ҂ѩܓ ѩܓ ҂ѩܓ 2 (0đ0) (0đ0) ࢤ൳ ҂ࢤ൳ ࢤ൳ ҂ࢤ൳ (V , U) (0đ0) (VđU) (0đ0) ggSb1 ѩܓѰᒮঔᅚൕၩ
ᇏଲն࿐࿐Б(ഠ߶॓࿐ϱ) ֻ17ज 24 P(g)⋅V(r−r)+[1−P(g)]⋅V(r−r)= Ԛࢲіൕሱಖ࿊ᄴѰᒮٚ1֥ఒြো{g, b}đg0b0ՎൈѰᒮٚ1ᆺႵݺఒြބҵఒြਆᇕোbѰᒮٚP(g)⋅V(r−r)+V(r−r) (4) gbb01ᄝܴҳሱ࠭ఒြোၛުथק൞ڎؓѰᒮٚ2ൌീѩܓđࡌೂѰᒮٚ1࿊ᄴ҂ѩܓđᄵֻ၂ࢨ؍ં൞ೂݔE(R)>0đֹࠧٚܠۄఒြࢤ൳ѩܓ֥௹ຬ൬ݺఒြߎ൞ҵఒြđѰᒮन࿆ۡࢲඏđѩܓචٚनၭູᆞđᄵః߶࿊ᄴࢤ൳ѩܓđၹູ࿊ᄴ҂ࢤ൳ѩܓ֤ാĠࡌೂѰᒮٚ1࿊ᄴѩܓđᄵѰᒮࣉೆѰᒮٚ2௹ຬ൬ၭູ0ĠೂݔE(R)<0đֹࠧٚܠۄఒြࢤ൳ѩ֥ྐ༏ࠢđՎൈđѰᒮٚ2ေ۴ऌሱ֥࠭ࣜဒࣉྛܓ֥௹ຬ൬ၭູڵđᄵః߶࿊ᄴ҂ࢤ൳ѩܓb္ࣼ൞؎ၛथק൞ڎࢤ൳ѩܓbᄝᆃႋᇿၩđѰᒮٚ2֥ඪđ֒P(g)>(r−r)/(r−r)ൈđֹٚܠۄఒြ࿊ᄴࢤ൳0bgbྐ༏ࠢЇݣਆ۱थҦࢲđᆃࣼіૼѰᒮٚ2ᄝھࢨ؍ѩܓĠ֒P(g)<(r−r)/(r−r)ൈđ࿊ᄴ҂ࢤ൳ѩܓbಸ0bgbࣉྛथҦൈѩ҂ᆩ֡Ѱᒮٚ1൞ݺఒြߎ൞ҵఒြbၞဒᆣđ(ѩܓđࢤ൳ѩܓĠP(g)>(r−r)/(r−r))ބ(ѩ0bgb္ࣼ൞ඪđᄝѰᒮٚ1ֻؽࢨ؍࿊ᄴѩܓ֥భิ༯đܓđ҂ࢤ൳ѩܓĠP(g)<(r−r)/(r−r))नູՂҦປૅ0bgbѰᒮٚ2҂ᆩ֡൞Ֆଧ่ਫ਼ࣥݖট֥đၹՎمᆌؓНွථनޙbP(g)>(r−r)/(r−r)ၩሢᄝ൧ӆഈն؟0bgbਆᇕ౦ঃٳљࣉྛ࿊ᄴđсྶေቓԛࣉ၂֥҄ܙ࠹ބඔնఒြࠢ൞ݺఒြ֥భิ༯đֹٚܠۄఒြҌ؎đၛьਔࢳѰᒮٚ1ᄝ࿊ᄴؓሱ࠭ൌീѩܓٚσ߶჻ၩࢤ൳ѩܓđၹՎđ(ѩܓđࢤ൳ѩܓĠP(g)>(r− 0ൈ൞ݺఒြބҵఒြ֥ۀੱb r)/(r−r))උႿ൧ӆ҆ٳӮۿ֥नޙđᆃ္൞၂۱ࠁކbgb नޙbೂݔᄝགྷൌ൧ӆᇏP(g)<(r−r)/(r−r)đֹࠧٚ0bgbܠۄሧჷఒြؓնఒြ֥ࠢྐྏ҂ቀđࣼ߶ऋधඹaѰᒮଆٳ༅ ѩܓđ൧ӆປಆാϧđ෮Ⴕѩܓ߶مղӮb֒ಖđ ֹٚܠۄఒြ္ॖၛᄝؓնఒြࠢીႵ؟նྐྏႮНွථمᄵૌ֤ԛ: ֥౦ঃ༯࿊ᄴࠁކҦđࠧၛ၂קۀੱෛࠏ࿊ᄴࢤ൳ ѩܓߎ൞҂ࢤ൳ѩܓđ൧ӆིੱ߶ൌགྷ၂҆ٳđ߶P(g)⋅P(a/g)P(g)⋅P(a/g)P(g/a)== ཬႿ൧ӆ҆ٳӮۿൈི֥ੱđ൧ӆࢤ࣍ാϧbၹՎđP(a)P(g)⋅P(a/g)+P(b)⋅P(a/b)ྐ༏֥҂ؓӫᄝ၂ק౦ঃ༯ಒൌ߶൧ӆིੱ൳֞ޓ (1) ն႕ཙb P(b)⋅P(a/b)P(b)⋅P(a/b)P(b/a)== P(a)P(g)⋅P(a/g)+P(b)⋅P(a/b) (2) aࢲં Ⴕ:P(g/a)+P(b/a)=1b Ⴎ1ॖၛुԛđնఒြࠢड़ק߶ѩܓֹٚЧ໓ࡼሧჷӁြѩܓࠃԎའູնఒြࠢބܠۄሧჷఒြbၹູೂݔֹٚܠۄఒြࢤ൳ѩܓđ҂ֹٚܠۄሧჷఒြᆭࡗ֥Ѱᒮđᄝѩܓࠃᇏđંնఒြ֥ࠢো൞ݺࠇ൞ߊđ߶Ⴕᆞ֥࣪൬Ѱᒮචٚᆭࡗ֥ྛູཌྷ႕ཙđ෮ၛૄ۱ѰᒮٚᄝቓၭVࠇVbֹࠧٚܠۄఒြ҂ࢤ൳ѩܓđ္ა҂gSԛሱ࠭Ҧ࿊ᄴൈླေ۴ऌ෮ᅧ֥ྐ༏؎ؓٚิԛѩܓીႵޅљbႮՎुটđิԛѩܓҦ൞ॖି֥ႋؓҦbၹՎđູᆃུఒြԷᄯ၂۱ਅݺ֥նఒြ֥ࠢྟ࿊ᄴđࠧğP(a/g)=1ĠP(a/b)=1bѩܓߌ൞٤ӈᇗေ֥đᆃఃᇏЇওğ ᆃဢഈ૫֥܄ൔьࡥ߄ູ: ֻ၂đ࣐ਈ๙ݖ܄ष൧ӆೂᆣಊ൧ӆބӁಃࢌၞ ൧ӆ֩լކѩܓᇶุđၛࢆ֮ࢌၞٮႨđิۚѩܓིP(g)P(g/a)==P(g) (3) ੱb P(g)+P(b) ֻؽđࡹഡ܄a֥ܿٓ൧ӆྐ༏ุܵ༢đϺ֤֞: P(b/a)=P(b)b ᇹఒြᆞಒֹ࿊ᄴקࡎҦb ႮՎुটđֹٚܠۄሧჷఒြᆩ֡նఒြֻࠢđᇗቆᆜކᅞ֥Ӯۿൌീေն৯ࣉྛ၂ק߶ᄝֻؽࢨ؍ิԛѩܓҦđ൞ႮႿྐ༏֥҂ᆟุᇅڿ۪đߎఒြၛ൧ӆࣩᆚᇶֹุ໊֥đࡥ߄ѩؓӫđֹٚܠۄఒြᆺି۴ऌࣜဒ؎P(g)ބp(b)đܓݖӱᇏ֥০ၭཌྷܱᆀඔਈđູᄝ۷؟֥ྛြൌീᇗѩᄝՎࠎԤഈ࿊ᄴؓሱ࠭௹ຬቋն߄֥Ҧbପહֹቆᆜކᅞປمੰބᇅ؇ࠎԤb ٚܠۄఒြ࿊ᄴࢤ൳ѩܓ֥௹ຬ൬ၭູ: ѩܓѰᒮ൞၂۱ᇯ҄ཟᆜކ০ၭቋն߄֥ݖE(R)=P(g)⋅U+P(b)⋅U= ӱđᄝᆃ۱ݖӱᇏđѩܓᇶุ۲ሱ֥ࡎᆴ֤֞ԉٳgb
ֻ3௹ ޣđൎԽٯğሧჷӁြѩܓᇗቆᇏ֥Ѱᒮٳ༅ 25डބކקࡎđሧჷ֤֞Ⴊ߄ᇂbӮۿ֥ѩܓ߶Competition and Trade, 2002, 4(2): 311−364. [3] ᅦޡ, ਾݚᄉ. ఒြѩܓ֥٤ؓӫྐ༏Ѱᒮ[J]. ߶࠹ᆭႶ, ൈ֤ᇗቆᆜކᅞ֤ܼ֞ٗಪđູݓሧჷӁ2007(10): 28−30. ြࡲूބॖӻ࿃ؿᅚิ܂ቆᆮЌᅰb [4] Yuan Yi Chen, Michael N. Young. Cross-border mergers and ᆺႵࣜݖѰᒮݖӱҌିࡆѩܓު֥ఒြವކބacquisitions by Chinese listed companies: A principal–principal ѩܓࡎᆴ֥ൌགྷbѰᒮݖӱႵᇹႿѩܓᇶุധೆਔࢳperspective [J]. Asia Pacific Journal of Management, 2010, 27(3): ֥ؓٚఒြ໓߄ބࣜႏߌđՖطࡨഒଢѩܓ෮ջ523−539. ট֥ު၌ᆡđೂၹູఒြࡎᆴܴԊطӉ௹҂ିᆞӈ[5] Kathrin Bösecke. Value Creation in Mergers, Acquisitions, and षᅚളӁ֩b෮ၛૌေ॓࿐ؓրѩܓݖӱ֥࡛ऍྟAlliances [M]. 2009: 25−40. ބگᄖྟđѩܓᇶุေരᇗ࿊ᄴѩܓٚބѩܓٚσđ[6] ྷᄹѓ, ਾݓ, ۫ࣁโ. ఒြѩܓ֥Ѱᒮٳ༅[J]. ࡎᆴ۽ӱ, ቓ֞ྟथҦđط҂൞ູປӮᇗቆༀطᇗቆđູѩ2006(7): 138−140. [7] ྍ০, ᄶޣ. ఒြѩܓྛູ֥Ѱᒮٳ༅[J]. ᇏݓܵྐܓު֥ఒြӉ௹ؿᅚקࠎԤb ༏߄, 2008, 24, (11): 91−93. [8] ༩. Ⴊ൝ఒြѩܓ֥Ѱᒮٳ༅[J]. ॓Էြᄅ़, 2009(8): ҕॉ໓ངğ 48−49. [9] ޱ࿂, ੧ঊ. ࠎႿࠢಕఒြࡗѰᒮٳ༅֥ᆩ്ᄜԷᄯ֥ᇶ[1] ศ௦. ݓۑํఒြᇗቆѩܓҦٳ༅[J]. ଲۑ॓აܵ, ุ࿊ᄴ࣮[J]. ሰ॓ն࿐࿐Б, 2010, 12(2): 17−20. 2007(3): 1−7. [2] Kai-Uwe Kühn. Reforming European Merger Review: Targeting Problem Areas in Policy Outcomes [J]. Journal of Industry, Gaming for mergers and acquisitions in resource-intensive industries LI Hong, SHI Chunfen (Shanxi University of Finance & Economic, Taiyuan 030006, China) Abstract: In the context of resource scarcity, it is of importance for resource-intensive industries to implement reorganization strategy to raise industry intensity, employ advanced technology, enhance value-added, and improve the competitiveness of the industries and the sustainability of the community. It is noted that reorganization of industries involves game process under the market economy. In this paper, dynamic game models with imperfect information have been built up to facilitate the proceeding of merges and acquisitions, in which the decision behaviors of large corporations as merging side and local major enterprises as merged side are tested with a deep analysis of the game process. It is found that it is still necessary although government would participate in the reorganization process of the resource-intensive industries, it is still necessary for the merging parties to make decisions on the merging scheme based on information collected in every respect. Moreover, because the merging parties have communicated fully, it can be concluded that the gaming process will contribute to the after-merging operation and development of the enterprises and the overall implementation of reorganization strategy as well. Key Words: resource-intensive industries; enterprises’ mergers and acquisitions; dynamic game with imperfect information; perfect Bayesian equilibrium; large corporations; local major enterprises [щࠠğລཫ]
