뗚12뻭뗚3웚놱뺩폊뗧듳톧톧놨(짧믡뿆톧냦)Vol112,No132010쓪6퓂JournalofBeijingUniversityofPostsandTelecommunications(SocialSciencesEdition)Jun12010ꆤ탅쾢닺튵ꆤ뒴틢닺튵벯좺췸싧쿠볌맊헏럧쿕퇐뺿췵ꆡ쓈(11놱뺩폊뗧듳톧뺭볃맜샭톧풺,놱뺩ꆡ100876;21벪쇖닆뺭듳톧뺭볃톧풺,벪쇖뎤뒺ꆡ130117)햪ꆡ튪:뒴틢닺튵벯좺듦퓚뗄뷡릹탔ꆢ훜웚탔뫍췸싧탔뗈럧쿕,퓚랢짺쪱췹췹뇭쿖캪튻훖쿠볌맊헏맽돌ꆣ믹폚뢴퓓췸싧짏뗄뢺뫉2죝솿쒣탍퇐뺿쇋뒴틢닺튵벯좺췸싧뗄쿠볌맊헏퇝뮯맽돌,훘뗣쳖싛쇋뒴틢닺튵벯좺췸싧뗄뷡릹쳘헷ꆢ뒴틢웳튵ퟔ짭쳘헷럖늼뗄닮틬탔뫍벯좺쾵춳럧쿕횮볤뗄맘쾵,늢퓚듋믹뒡짏첽쯷쇋뒴틢닺튵벯좺뗄럧쿕럀랶믺훆,헢뛔폚듙뷸뒴틢닺튵벯좺뗄돖탸랢햹뻟폐훘튪샭싛뫍쪵볹틢틥ꆣ맘볼듊:뒴틢닺튵벯좺;뒴틢췸싧;쿠볌맊헏;럧쿕훐춼럖샠뫅:G114;F06219ꆡꆡꆡꆡꆡ컄쿗뇪쪶싫:A컄헂뇠뫅:100827729(2010)0320073207뒴틢닺튵쫇컄뮯뒴틢ꆢ뿆벼횧독ꆢ짌튵쒣쪽헢킩튪쯘뗄돉릦ퟩ뫏[1],웤틔뒴탂캪틀췐,듦퓚폚쯹폐탐튵ꆢ닺튵쇬폲,캻뻓룷닺튵볛횵솴뗄룟뛋,뻟폐룟뢽볓횵ꆢ룟째춸탔ꆢ잿럸짤탔뫍룟닺튵맘솪뛈뗈쳘헷,틲듋,뒴틢닺튵뗄벯좺뮯랢햹쫇뒴틢닺튵놾훊쳘탔뗄튪쟳ꆣ뒴틢닺튵벯좺훐냼몬룷훖뒴틢훷쳥틔벰룷훖틔횪쪶럖릤킭ퟷ캪믹뒡뗄릦쓜볛횵솴,헢킩뒴틢훷쳥뫍평듋탎돉뗄볛횵솴쪵볊짏폖ퟩ돉쇋튻룶뢴퓓뗄ꆢ늻뛏랢햹퇝뮯뗄뒴틢췸싧ꆣ놾컄붫뒴틢닺튵벯좺쫓캪튻룶뢴퓓췸싧,룃췸싧평뒴틢탐캪훷쳥(뷚뗣)ꆢ뒴틢탐캪훷쳥뗄솪쾵(뷚뗣횮볤뗄솬뷓)뫍벯좺훐뗄풴(쓜솿)ퟩ돉ꆣ뒴틢닺튵벯좺췸싧훐,뒴틢훷쳥뗄솬뷓볈듺뇭훷쳥횮볤뗄뫏ퟷꆢ붻틗뗈맘쾵,튲쫇룷훖풴쇷뚯뗄맘볼춨뗀틔벰룷훖탅쾢ꆢ벼쫵ꆢ닺ꆢ럧쿕뗈뒫능삩즢뗄쟾뗀ꆣ폫웤쯻샠탍뗄닺튵벯좺쿠뇈,뒴틢닺튵벯좺뻟폐룼룟뗄럧쿕탔ꆣ틲듋,놾컄훷튪퇐뺿뒴틢닺튵벯좺췸싧뗄럧쿕컊쳢ꆣ튻ꆢ닺튵벯좺럧쿕컊쳢퇐뺿쿖ힴ맘폚닺튵벯좺럧쿕퇐뺿,ퟮ퓧뿉틔ힷ쯝떽19쫀볍쒩웚탂맅뗤뺭볃톧볒십킪뛻뗄퇐뺿ꆣ1890쓪,십킪뛻퓚ꆶ뺭볃톧풭샭ꆷ훐횸돶,믹폚뗘샭벯뻛뗄벯좺믡컼틽풽살풽뛠뗄탂웳튵뷸죫,떱뎬맽튻뚨쿞뛈쪱,틽웰췁뗘ꆢ놾뫍샍뚯솦볛룱뗄짏헇,듓뛸훆풼벯좺뗄뷸튻늽랢햹,벯좺튲믡뾪쪼쮥실ꆣ[2]횮뫳,탭뛠톧엉뗄톧헟듓늻춬뷇뛈퇐뺿벯좺뗄럧쿕컊쳢ꆣ탂뺭볃짧믡톧엉톧헟닠훘폚듓ꆰ짧믡놾ꆱꆢꆰ룹횲탔ꆱ뫍ꆰ췸싧뷡릹ꆱ뗈탂뺭볃짧믡톧훷튪룅쓮돶랢,첽뺿벯좺퇝뷸맽돌훐뗄ꆰ짧믡췸싧럧쿕ꆱꆣ탂뺭볃짧믡톧엉듺뇭죋컯G[3]ranovettr죏캪,뺭볃탐캪룹횲폚췸싧폫훆뛈횮훐,훆뛈뻟폐잿쇒뗄슷뺶틀삵탔ꆣ떱벯좺췢늿벼쫵쳵볾랢짺룄뇤쪱,췸싧뗄슷뺶틀삵탔튲뿉쓜틽랢벯좺뗄룷훖쯸뚨킧펦,떼훂벯좺쮥췋짵훁쏰췶ꆣ짧믡췸싧샭싛톧엉뗄듺뇭죋컯H[4]arrisonetal듓벯좺쓚뗄뫏ퟷ췸싧맘쾵돶랢퇐뺿벯좺럧쿕,퓚퇐뺿틢듳샻닺튵쟸뗄뫏ퟷ탎쪽뗄캣쿕쪱횸돶ꆰ췸싧맘쾵쫇튻냑쮫죐붣ꆱ,늢쟒횸돶SFNs(smallfirmnetworks)만폐뗄죵뗣헽퓚훰늽놩슶돶살ꆣ튻킩폐볛횵뗄탅쾢튻떩놩슶,쯻뗄짌튵믺믡뻍듳듳붵뗍,듓뛸듬짋쯻쏇쯑쯷탂탅쾢뗄믽벫탔뫍횪쪶릲쿭틢쪶,틲듋탨튪폐킧뗘벤샸풼쫸믺훆살맦랶췸싧훐횪쪶틧돶쿖쿳ꆣA[5]brahamsonetal튲죏캪,듓짧쫕룥죕웚:2010204209ퟷ헟볲뷩:췵쓈(1978ꆪ),얮,벪쇖릫훷쇫죋,놱뺩폊뗧듳톧뺭볃맜샭톧풺2007벶늩쪿짺,벪쇖닆뺭듳톧뺭볃톧풺붲쪦,퇐뺿랽쿲캪닺튵뺭볃톧ꆢ뢴퓓췸싧샭싛벰웤펦폃ꆣꆤ73ꆤ
놱뺩폊뗧듳톧톧놨(짧믡뿆톧냦)2010쓪뗚3웚믡뫍컄뮯틢틥짏듙뷸웳튵벯좺탎돉뗄ꆰ쟸폲쯸뚨ꆱ,퓚벯좺뾪쪼쪱쫇랢햹뗄솦솿풴좪,떫쯦ퟅ벯좺뮷뺳뗄뚯떴,뿉쓜돉캪벯좺붩뮯ꆢ쪧좥떯탔뗄풴좪ꆣ햽싔톧엉뗄듺뇭죋컯[6]Porter횸돶,벯좺닺짺뫳뻍뒦폚뚯첬퇝뮯훐,뿉쓜틲캪췢늿췾킲(죧벼쫵볤뛏ꆢ쿻럑헟탨쟳뇤뮯뗈)틔벰쓚늿붩뮯(평폚맽뛈뫏늢ꆢ뾨쳘뛻뫍좺쳥쮼캬틖훆뒴탂뗈)뛸쪧좥뺺헹솦ꆣT[7]ichy퓚런얩뗄ꆰ닺욷짺쏼훜웚ꆱ샭싛뗄퇐뺿믹뒡짏쳡돶쟸폲닺욷짺쏼훜웚샭싛,쯻뻝듋싛쫶닺튵벯좺짺쏼훜웚틔벰평듋닺짺뗄뷡릹탔럧쿕,붫벯좺뗄짺쏼훜웚뮮럖돉떮짺웚ꆢ돉뎤웚ꆢ돉쫬웚ꆢ쮥췋웚쯄룶뷗뛎ꆣ퓚T[8]ichy퇐뺿뗄믹뒡짏,Fritzetal럖컶쇋뺭볃훜웚뛔닺튵벯좺뗄돥믷ꆪꆪꆪ훜웚탔럧쿕ꆣ훜웚탔럧쿕튲뻍쫇벯좺췢늿쯹뒦뗄뫪맛뺭볃뮷뺳뗄뇤뮯뛔벯좺랢햹닺짺뗄럧쿕,쫇벯좺ퟟ쿲쮥췋뗄폕랢탔틲쯘ꆣ쟸폲ꆢ맺볒짵훁쫇좫쟲탔뗄뺭볃늨뚯,쪹쿠맘쟸폲벯좺뗄랢햹쫜떽펰쿬,쏦쇙럧쿕짵훁ퟟ쿲쮥췋ꆣ뮹폐톧헟샻폃탅쾢뺭볃톧훐탅쾢늻뛔돆풭샭퇐뺿벯좺ꆰ쓻쏊쫐뎡ꆱ럧쿕,죧돰놣탋[9]틔헣붭쪡폀뾵쫐놣컂놭ퟷ캪뻟쳥낸샽,럖컶쇋틲맽뛈뺺헹쯹떼훂뗄닺욷훊솿뛱탔톭뮷ꆢ늻뛏췋뮯뗄맽돌,쳡돶닺욷훊솿탅쾢럖늼늻뛔돆뛸떼훂뗄ꆰ쓻쏊쫐뎡ꆱ킧펦쫇벯좺쓚늿돶쿖럧쿕뗄훷튪풭틲ꆣ닌쓾뗈[10]퇐뺿쇋닺튵벯좺뗄췸싧탔럧쿕,죏캪벯좺훐웳튵볤뗄췸싧맘쾵쫇닺튵벯좺뗄놾훊쳘헷,췸싧폫벯좺럧쿕폐쏜쟐뗄맘쾵,늢퇐뺿쇋벯좺뗄뷡릹탔ꆢ훜웚탔ꆢ췸싧탔죽샠럧쿕뗄쿠뮥볓잿믺훆ꆣM[11]arkusen쳡돶쇋벯좺뗄ꆰퟔ뇕탔ꆱ럧쿕;컢쿾늨뗈[12]쫜Markusen맛뗣뗄웴쪾,쳡돶쇋쟸폲벯좺ꆰퟔ탔ꆱ럧쿕,횸돶튵뮯럖릤ꆢ뗘샭탔쇙뷼ꆢ좺쓚쿠뮥맘솪ꆢ킭춬폫틧돶킧펦뗈퓚릹돉쟸폲벯좺뺺헹폅쫆뗄춬쪱,튲ퟌ짺쇋닺폃탔럧쿕ꆢ햽싔쟷춬럧쿕ꆢ럢뇕ퟔ쫘럧쿕뫍뒴탂뛨탔럧쿕쯄훖럧쿕,벴쟸폲벯좺놾짭뗄폅쫆튲쫇쟸폲벯좺럧쿕닺짺뗄룹놾풭틲ꆣ듓쒿잰맘폚닺튵벯좺럧쿕탔퇐뺿뗄컄쿗짏뾴,뛔닺튵벯좺뗄좺쳥탔럧쿕뗄퇐뺿훷튪쫇듓럧쿕뗄탎돉뇭쿖탎쪽뷸탐,냑닺튵벯좺럧쿕럖캪뷡릹탔ꆢ훜웚탔ꆢ췸싧탔뫍ꆰퟔ뇕탔ꆱ럧쿕쯄샠ꆣ쇭췢,쇵쮹낽뗈[13]룹뻝닺튵벯좺닺짺살풴,붫벯좺럧쿕럖캪췢짺럧쿕뫍쓚짺럧쿕;헅쏷쇺뗈[14]틀뻝닺튵벯좺쓚웳튵볤뗄쿠뮥맘쾵붫닺튵벯좺럧쿕럖캪퓺뛑쪽럧쿕ꆢ췸싧쪽럧쿕ꆢ싖훡쪽럧쿕ꆢ뛠뫋쪽럧쿕ꆢ믬뫏쪽럧쿕;퇮퓚뻼[15]믹폚벯좺훷쳥뗄샠탍뮮럖캪캢맛ꆢ훐맛ꆢ뫪맛죽룶닣듎짏뗄럧쿕ꆣ헫뛔컄뮯뒴틢닺튵벯좺뗄럧쿕랽쏦,샷컞캷[16]뻟쳥횸돶쇋뒴틢닺튵뗄쫐뎡붻틗럧쿕,냼삨탅쾢늻뛔돆럧쿕ꆢ램싉램맦듸살뗄럧쿕ꆢ탐쟩에뛏쪧컳듸살뗄럧쿕뫍닺욷짽벶뮻듺듸살뗄럧쿕뗈ꆣ웤쯻톧헟맘폚뒴틢닺튵벯좺럧쿕뗄싛쫶믹놾짏믹폚잰컄쯹쫶뗄뷡릹탔ꆢ훜웚탔ꆢ췸싧탔뫍ꆰퟔ뇕탔ꆱ럧쿕뗈ꆣ뒴틢닺튵평폚웤룟째춸탔ꆢ잿럸짤탔뫍룟닺튵맘솪뛈뗈쳘헷,뒴틢닺튵벯좺튲뇘좻듦퓚뷡릹탔ꆢ훜웚탔뫍췸싧탔뗈럧쿕ꆣ헢킩럧쿕퓚랢짺쪱붫뇭쿖캪튻훖췸싧짏뗄쿠볌맊헏맽돌,벴벯좺쓚튻킩뒴틢훷쳥랢짺쇋캣믺,뷸뛸뒫좾믲틽웰웤쯻뒴틢훷쳥믲쿠맘믺릹뗄캣믺,늢틽랢쿠볌맊헏맽돌,듓뛸쪹뗃헻룶뒴틢닺튵벯좺닺짺쾵춳럧쿕ꆣ뛔헢훖벯좺쿠볌맊헏맽돌뗄뾼달탨튪붫뒴틢훷쳥캢맛닣쏦뫍훐맛닣쏦뗄럧쿕뷡뫏웰살,틑폐뗄컄쿗훐뛔룃랽쏦뗄퇐뺿뷏캪짙볻ꆣ놾컄붫믹폚뢴퓓췸싧뗄쿠볌맊헏쒣탍살퇐뺿헢튻컊쳢,늢뾼달뒴틢닺튵벯좺쾵춳럧쿕뗄퇝뮯맽돌벰웤폫벯좺췸싧뷡릹뗄맘쾵,첽쯷뻟폐뷏잿뾹럧쿕탔뗄뒴틢닺튵벯좺췸싧뷡릹쳘헷,헢뛔폚듙뷸뒴틢닺튵벯좺뗄돖탸랢햹뻟폐훘튪샭싛뫍쪵볹틢틥ꆣ뛾ꆢ뒴틢닺튵벯좺쾵춳럧쿕뗄쿠볌맊헏쒣탍놾컄쪹폃뢴퓓췸싧뗄쿠볌맊헏쒣탍(뢺뫉2죝솿쒣탍)퇐뺿뒴틢닺튵벯좺뗄쾵춳럧쿕컊쳢,늢룹뻝뒴틢닺튵뗄쳘뗣쒣쓢쿠볌맊헏뗄랢짺믺훆ꆣ캪랽뇣,횻퇐뺿뒴틢닺튵벯좺훐뗄뒴틢웳튵췸싧뗄럧쿕컊쳢,벴쎿룶뒴틢웳튵쫇췸싧훐뗄튻룶뷚뗣,뒴틢웳튵볤뗄맘쾵탎돉뷚뗣볤뗄솬뷓ꆣ11쒣탍볙짨(1)뒴틢훷쳥뒦폚뺲첬뗄췸싧,벴떱쒳킩뒴틢웳튵뗄쇚뻓뷚뗣(죧릩펦짌ꆢ뿍뮧뗈)랢짺캣믺믲웆닺쪱,룃뒴틢웳튵폫탂뗄릩펦짌뫍뿍뮧퓚뛌웚쓚붨솢솬뷓뗄돉놾뫜룟ꆣ(2)뒴틢웳튵랢짺캣믺뗄뇪횾쫇웤ퟜ뢺뫉(평돉놾ꆢ쫐뎡탐쟩ꆢ웳튵퓋펪ힴ뿶뗈뻶뚨)킡폚ퟜ죝솿ꆤ74ꆤ
췵ꆡ쓈:뒴틢닺튵벯좺췸싧쿠볌맊헏럧쿕퇐뺿(벴웳튵뒦폚솼뫃퓋펪ힴ첬뗄쇙뷧횵),벴떱웳튵퓚쒳튻쪱뿌t뗄ퟜ뢺뫉듳폚웤죝솿뗄쇙뷧횵쪱,웳튵붫닺짺캣믺ꆣ(3)떱쒳룶웳튵i랢짺캣믺쪱,웳튵i믡붫헢훖캣믺뒫뗝룸쿠맘뗄웤쯻웳튵j(벴뒫뗝룸폫웤폐횱뷓솪쾵뗄짏쿂폎웳튵),뛸웤쯻웳튵j튲폐뿉쓜틲듋랢짺캣믺,늢붫캣믺볌탸뒫뗝룸웤쯻웳튵,듓뛸퓚뒴틢닺튵벯좺췸싧훐틽랢쿠볌맊헏맽돌,뷸뛸떼훂벯좺뗄쾵춳럧쿕ꆣ21쒣탍쏨쫶퓚죎틢쪱뿌t,뒴틢닺튵벯좺췸싧짏뗄쎿룶뷚뗣i뗄짺듦ힴ첬폃튻룶뚯첬뗄ힴ첬뇤솿s(it)ꇊ{0,1}살뇭쪾ꆣ죧맻쒳룶웳튵i랢짺캣믺믲웆닺,퓲룃웳튵i뗄ힴ첬뇤솿s(it)=1;죧맻웳튵i뒦폚솼뫃퓋탐ힴ첬,퓲룃웳튵i뗄ힴ첬뇤솿s(it)=0ꆣ죎틢튻룶웳튵i뗄짺듦ힴ첬s(it)평솽룶뇤솿<(it)뫍ꛈi살뻶뚨,웤훐,<(it)듺뇭퓚쪱뿌t웳튵i뗄쪵볊뢺뫉,ꛈi쫇죎틢웳튵i뒦폚솼뫃퓋탐ힴ첬뗄쇙뷧횵(죝솿)ꆣ떱<(it)<ꛈi쪱,뒴틢웳튵i쫇붡뾵뗄;떫죧맻<(it)ꇝꛈi,뒴틢웳튵i믡랢짺캣믺ꆣ뮻뻤뮰쮵s(it)=ꚨ(z(it))z(it)=<(it)-ꛈi쪽훐ꚨ쫇뾪맘몯쫽,벴죧맻z<0,퓲ꚨ(z)=0;죧맻zꇝ0,퓲ꚨ(z)=1ꆣ쎿튻웳튵뗄쇙뷧횵ꛈi뗄듳킡뫍웳튵i뗄뛈쫽벰웤쇚뻓뷚뗣웳튵(랢짺횱뷓튵컱믲뫏ퟷ맘쾵뗄웳튵)뗄뛈쫽돉헽뇈,벴ꛒꛘi=ꛄkiꇆkmmꇊꚣi쪽훐,ki쫇뗚i룶뷚뗣웳튵뗄뛈쫽;ꚣi쫇뗚i룶뷚뗣웳튵뗄쇚뻓뷚뗣뗄벯뫏;ꛘ뫍ꛄ쫇뿉뗷헻뗄닎쫽ꆣ볙짨웳튵i랢짺캣믺쪱,웤쯹뒫능뗄캣몦뷶쿞폚z(it),벴룃웳튵뢺뫉폫죝솿횮닮ꆣ룸뚨돵쪼ힴ첬<(i0)(i=1,2,ꆭ,N),쎿룶뷚뗣웳튵뗄뢺뫉평폚쿠볌맊헏뗄뒫뗝돊쿖뚯첬뇤뮯,퓚죎틢쪱웚t+1,뷚뗣웳튵j(j=0,1,ꆭ,N)뗄뢺뫉평쿂쏦릫쪽뻶뚨<(<jt)+(t+1)ꇆ|<(it)-ꛈi|s(jt)=0j=iꇊfail(j)ki0웤쯻쪽훐fail(j)뇭쪾뷚뗣j뗄쇚뻓뷚뗣훐랢짺캣믺뗄뷚뗣벯뫏,벴fail(j)=i|s=0,뷚뗣i뫍j횮볤듦퓚횱뷓솬뷓i평폚쿠볌맊헏맽돌폐뿉쓜틽웰헻룶뒴틢닺튵벯좺뗄쾵춳럧쿕,쯹틔튪뚨틥쾵춳럧쿕뗄돌뛈ꆣ캪듋,붫뒴틢닺튵벯좺췸싧퓚쪱볤t랢짺캣믺뗄웳튵뗄뇈샽뚨틥캪X(t)=1nꇆns(it)i=1죧맻X(t)뗄횵뷓뷼폚1,퓲헻룶뒴틢닺튵벯좺듦퓚뫜듳뗄럧쿕;떱X(t)뷓뷼폚0쪱,퓲헻룶뒴틢닺튵벯좺쿠뛔풶샫럧쿕ꆣ헻룶벯좺쾵춳뗄쿠볌맊헏맽돌ퟮ훕믡듯떽튻룶컈뚨ힴ첬,벴퓚쒳튻쪱뿌t,뒴틢닺튵벯좺췸싧훐쯹폐쪣쿂뷚뗣뗄뢺뫉뚼뗍폚웤쇙뷧횵,틢캶ퟅX(t)쫕솲폚쒳튻룶컈뚨ힴ첬X3ꆣ틲듋,컈뚨ힴ첬쪱,랢짺캣믺뫍웆닺웳튵뗄뇈샽X3쫇폃살뇭쪾헻룶뒴틢닺튵벯좺쾵춳럧쿕뗄듺샭뇤솿ꆣ31럂헦뷡맻벰럖컶(1)늻춬췸싧뷡릹뛔뒴틢닺튵벯좺쾵춳럧쿕뗄펰쿬캪뾼달뒴틢닺튵벯좺췸싧뷡릹뗄닮틬뛔벯좺쾵춳럧쿕뗄펰쿬7],쫗쿈붫뒴틢웳튵훃폚W[1attsetal쯹쳡돶뗄WS킡쫀뷧췸싧훐,퓚쒣쓢뗄돵쪼쪱,볙짨뷚뗣웳튵뗄룶쫽캪1000,ퟮ뷼쇚뫏췸싧뗄k=2,쯦믺훘솬룅싊캪q,퓚q듓0ꆫ1늻뛏뇤뮻맽돌훐,룃췸싧돊쿖듓췪좫맦퓲췸싧떽킡쫀뷧췸싧떽췪좫쯦믺췸싧뗄퇝뮯,헢훖췸싧뷡릹뗄뇤뮯믡뛔벯좺쿠볌맊헏맽돌듯떽컈첬쪱랢짺캣믺뗄웳튵뗄뇈샽X3닺짺펰쿬ꆣ캪쇋뒥뚯쿠볌맊헏맽돌,퓚췸싧훐쯦믺뗄톡좡p=1%뗄뒴틢웳튵랢짺캣믺,벴헢1%뗄웳튵뗄뢺뫉뎬맽웤죝솿뗄쇙뷧횵,헢퇹,랢짺캣믺뗄웳튵믡뛔벯좺훐뗄웤쯻웳튵닺짺펰쿬,퓶볓웤쯻웳튵뗄뢺뫉,듓뛸뒥뚯쿠볌맊헏맽돌ꆣ놾컄뷸탐쇋1000듎쒣쓢,늢붫1000듎쒣쓢뗄뷡맻욽뻹,뮭돶쇋WS킡ꆤ75ꆤ
놱뺩폊뗧듳톧톧놨(짧믡뿆톧냦)2010쓪뗚3웚쫀뷧췸싧뗄쯦믺훘솬룅싊q뫍컈첬쪱벯좺췸싧훐랢짺캣믺뗄웳튵뗄뇈샽X3(쾵춳럧쿕)횮볤뗄맘쾵,죧춼1쯹쪾ꆣ듓춼1뿉볻,떱벯좺웳튵췸싧돊쿖췪좫맦퓲췸싧쪱,퓚컈첬쪱헻룶뒴틢닺튵벯좺랢짺캣믺웳튵뗄뇈샽럇뎣룟;뛸떱벯좺웳튵췸싧돊쿖쯦믺췸싧쳘헷믲킡쫀뷧췸싧탔훊쪱,컈첬쪱벯좺훐랢짺캣믺뗄웳튵뗄뇈샽놣돖쇋뷏뗍쮮욽ꆣ뿉볻,뻟폐킡쫀뷧탔훊믲췪좫쯦믺쳘헷뗄뒴틢닺튵벯좺뛔쿠볌맊헏쯹탎돉뗄쾵춳럧쿕뻟폐뷏잿뗄뗖뾹솦ꆣ춼1ꆡ뻟폐킡쫀뷧탔훊뗄뒴틢닺튵벯좺췸싧뷡릹폫ꆡꆡꆡꆡꆡ쾵춳럧쿕뗄맘쾵횮뫳,뛔뻟폐컞뇪뛈탔훊뗄뒴틢닺튵벯좺뗄쿠볌맊헏맽돌뷸탐뾼달,럖컶뷡맻죧춼2쯹쪾ꆣ듓춼2뿉틔뾴돶,뛔폚뻟폐컞뇪뛈탔훊뗄벯좺췸싧,튻떩돵쪼ힴ첬랢짺캣믺웳튵뗄뇈샽듯떽튻뚨돌뛈,뻍믡톸쯙틽랢쿠볌맊헏맽돌,늢ퟮ훕쪹헻룶벯좺쾵춳뎹뗗뇀삣,뻟폐컞뇪뛈탔훊뗄벯좺췸싧뗄쿠볌맊헏맦쒣뫍랢햹쯙뛈뚼룟폚WS킡쫀뷧췸싧ꆣ춼2ꆡ뻟폐컞뇪뛈탔훊뗄뒴틢닺튵벯좺쿠볌맊헏맽돌쿂쏦뻟쳥뾼달췸싧뗄췘웋쳘헷닎쫽뫍쾵춳럧쿕횮볤뗄맘쾵ꆣ뒴틢닺튵벯좺췸싧뗄욽뻹뛈<k>폫쾵춳럧쿕닎쫽X3뗄맘쾵죧춼3쯹쪾,웤훐췸싧맦쒣캪N=1000,돵쪼쪱랢짺캣믺뗄웳튵뇈싊캪2%ꆣ듓춼3훐뿉볻,<k>풽듳,헻룶췸싧뛔쿠볌맊헏뗄뗖뾹솦풽잿;랴횮,헻룶췸싧뛔쿠볌맊헏뗄뗖뾹솦풽죵,벴<k>킡쪱,뒴틢닺튵벯좺죝틗평폚킡늿럖웳튵뗄캣믺,틽웰헻룶췸싧뗄쾵춳럧쿕ꆣ떱췸싧뗄<k>뷏뗍쪱,뒴틢닺튵벯좺쿔쪾돶벫듳뗄든죵탔;떫떱뒴틢닺튵벯좺뗄<k>퓶볓떽쒳튻쇙뷧횵쪱,췸싧춻좻쿔쪾돶뛔쿠볌맊헏뗄뫜잿뗖뾹솦ꆣ틲듋,죴튪퓶볓뒴틢닺튵벯좺뗄컈뚨탔,탨튪닉좡듫쪩퓶볓췸싧뗄<k>,벴듙쪹뒴틢닺튵벯좺훐웳튵횮볤룼캪맣랺뗄뫏ퟷ뫍붻틗맘쾵뗄탎돉,퇓짬뫍볓뎤뒴틢ꆤ76ꆤ
췵ꆡ쓈:뒴틢닺튵벯좺췸싧쿠볌맊헏럧쿕퇐뺿닺튵벯좺뗄볛횵솴,뿉틔퓶잿뒴틢닺튵벯좺뗄뾹럧쿕쓜솦ꆣ춼3ꆡ뒴틢닺튵벯좺췸싧뗄욽뻹뛈<k>폫쾵춳럧쿕닎쫽X3뗄맘쾵(2)뒴틢웳튵뗄쇙뷧횵럖늼ힴ뿶뛔쾵춳럧쿕뗄펰쿬캪쇋뾼달웳튵쎿튻룶웳튵쇙뷧횵(죝솿)뗄럖늼ힴ뿶뛔쿠볌맊헏맽돌뗄펰쿬,쇮쎿룶웳튵뗄쇙뷧횵(죝솿)럾듓Weibull럖늼,늢춨맽뗷헻Weibull횸쫽ꛋ살뗷뷚벯좺훐웳튵쇙뷧횵(죝솿)럖늼뗄퓓싒돌뛈ꆣꛒi뇭쪾쎿룶벯좺훐웳튵돵쪼ힴ첬쯹쏦쇙뗄뢺뫉,ꛒi=F/N(웤훐,F뇭쪾헻쳥뗄쫐뎡톹솦;N캪벯좺훐웳튵뗄쫽쒿)ꆣ뒴틢닺튵벯좺쓚웳튵쇙뷧횵뗄닮틬돌뛈폫쿠볌맊헏맽돌퇝뮯죧춼4쯹쪾,웤훐,N=1000,돵쪼랢짺캣믺뗄웳튵뇈샽p=011ꆣ듓춼4뿉틔뾴돶,죴뒴틢닺튵벯좺훐웳튵뗄쇙뷧횵럖늼뷏캪뻹퓈,퓲벯좺뛔쿠볌맊헏맽돌뻟폐뷏듳뗄돐쫜솦;랴횮,벯좺죝틗닺짺뷏듳뗄쾵춳럧쿕뛸뇀삣ꆣ춼4ꆡ뒴틢닺튵벯좺쓚웳튵쇙뷧횵뗄닮틬돌뛈폫쿠볌맊헏맽돌퇝뮯(3)쿠볌맊헏뒥뚯믺훆닮틬벰웤뛔벯좺쿠볌맊헏맽돌뗄펰쿬놾컄릹붨쇋솽훖벯좺럧쿕쿠볌맊헏뗄뒥뚯믺훆,튻훖쫇탮틢톡퓱돵쪼쪱랢짺캣믺뗄웳튵;쇭튻훖쫇쯦믺톡퓱돵쪼쪱랢짺캣믺뗄웳튵ꆣ퓚탮틢톡퓱훐,폖럖캪듓뛈쫽듳뗄뷚뗣웳튵뾪쪼랢짺쿠볌맊헏맽돌뫍듓뛈쫽킡뗄뷚뗣웳튵뾪쪼랢짺쿠볌맊헏맽돌솽훖쟩뿶ꆣ춼5쪾돶쇋늻춬쿠볌맊헏뒥뚯맽돌뗄퇝뮯,춼훐p뇭쪾돵쪼ힴ첬췸싧훐랢짺맊헏뗄뷚뗣웳튵뗄뇈샽,N=1000ꆣ췸싧훐죎틢뷚뗣뗄뛈쫽뚨틥캪폫헢룶뷚뗣횱뷓랢짺솪쾵뗄웤쯻뷚뗣쫽쒿믲헢룶뷚뗣뗄쇚뻓뷚뗣쫽ꆤ77ꆤ
놱뺩폊뗧듳톧톧놨(짧믡뿆톧냦)2010쓪뗚3웚쒿ꆣ듓춼5뿉볻,뻟폐뷏룟뛈쫽뗄붡뾵뷚뗣웳튵뇈뗍뛈쫽뗄뷚뗣웳튵룼쓜뗖폹췢뷧웤쯻웳튵뗄늻솼펰쿬,벴횻폐떱쯼뗄쇚뻓뷚뗣웳튵훐폐탭뛠뗄뷚뗣맊헏쪱,닅믡랢짺맊헏,헢쫇틲캪뻟폐룟뛈쫽뗄뷚뗣웳튵췹췹쫇쫐뎡훐뗄뫋탄웳튵,쯼폫뷏뛠뗄웳튵폐튵컱솪쾵,뛔떥룶튵컱믯냩뗄틀삵탔뷏뗍;랴횮,튻룶뗍뛈쫽뗄뷚뗣웳튵뛔살ퟔ폚웤쯻웳튵뗄늻솼펰쿬뗄뗖뾹솦뷏뗍ꆣ춼5ꆡ늻춬쿠볌맊헏듙뚯믺훆폫쿠볌맊헏맽돌뗄퇝뮯떱튻룶룟뛈쫽뗄뷚뗣웳튵랢짺캣믺쪱,죴쯼뗄탭뛠쇚뻓뷚뗣웳튵뻟폐뷏뗍뗄뛈쫽,퓲뢺뫉붫믡퓚뷏짙뗄뷚뗣뷸탐럖엤,헢룶룟뛈쫽뗄뷚뗣웳튵뗄맊헏붫믡닺짺뫜듳뗄웆뮵솦ꆣ튲뻍쫇쮵,튻킩뫋탄웳튵뗄캣믺믲틆돽뛔쿠맘뗄웤쯻웳튵퓬돉훂쏼펰쿬뗄뿉쓜탔뷏듳ꆣ죽ꆢ퇐뺿뷡싛벰웴쪾놾컄믹폚뢴퓓췸싧짏뗄뢺뫉2죝솿쒣탍퇐뺿쇋뒴틢닺튵벯좺뗄럧쿕컊쳢ꆣ죕놾뚫뺩뗄뚯싾닺튵벯좺뗄랢햹샺돌,뷼쯆쳥쿖쇋놾컄쯹쳡돶뗄뒴틢닺튵뗄쿠볌맊헏럧쿕랢짺맽돌ꆣ훚쯹훜횪,뚯싾퓸쫇죕놾쿖듺컄뮯뗄뇪잩,랢햹쪮럖랱죙ꆣ퓚죕놾뗄뚯싾닺튵훐,틑뺭탎돉쇋틔닺욷탎쿳캪믹뒡ꆢ냦좨맜샭캪뫋탄뗄럇뎣췪짆뗄닺튵솴ꆣ떫쫇,벸뫵쎻폐튻룶죕놾뚯싾웳튵쓜퓚헻쳵닺튵솴짏ꆰ춨돔ꆱ,퓚죕놾뚯싾닺튵솴뗄룷뮷뷚볤뚼폐쏷좷뗄럖릤뫏ퟷ쒣쪽,싾뮭릤ퟷ쫒ꆢ뚯뮭릤ퟷ쫒ꆢ냦좨듺샭쫂컱쯹ꆢ펡쮢돶냦웳튵ꆢ춼쫩랢탐웳튵ꆢ뗧쫓첨ꆢ퓓횾짧ꆢ뚯싾퇜짺욷짺닺ꆢ쿺쫛쟾뗀뗈믺릹뷧쿞쟥돾,룷훖믺릹탎돉쇋믹폚볛횵솴췸싧뗄틀듦맘쾵ꆣ좻뛸,쯦ퟅ죕놾뺭볃틔벰튻킩짧믡컊쳢뗄닺짺,쫗쿈죕놾췦뻟쫐뎡죕틦캮쯵,췦뻟뎧짌뗄뺭펪돶쿖삧쓑;쯦뫳뚯싾닺튵뗄뒫춳퓞훺짌훰붥떭돶뚯싾쫐뎡,틽웰쇋죕놾탭뛠뚯싾릫쮾쿝죫캣믺,폈웤쫇튻킩킡탍뗄뚯싾릫쮾룼쫇뺭펪닒떭,헢쪵볊짏쫇죕놾뚯싾닺튵랢짺쇋쿠볌맊헏뗄쾵춳럧쿕ꆣ죧뷱뗄죕놾뚯싾닺튵틑뺭럧맢늻퓙,튻킩쫽뻝쇏쿔쪾,죕놾뚯싾튵뗄쓪쫕틦퓚2006쓪듯떽뚥럥,풼캪20틚쏀풪,떫쫇웤뫳뇣뾪쪼쮥실,2008쓪뗄뷰죚캣믺룼쫇죃헢튻탐튵퓢쫜훘뒴,뗸죫잰쯹캴폐뗄뗍마,맣룦쫕죫죱복ꆢ탂닺욷동동늻쓜췆돶뗈컊쳢늻뛏랢짺,퓚2006ꆪ2008쓪뗄뛌뛌죽쓪볤,죕놾뚯싾닺튵뗄쫕죫틑뺭쿂붵쇋21%ꆣ듓놾컄뗄럖컶뿉볻,캪놣돖뒴틢닺튵벯좺뗄돖탸랢햹,탨튪럀랶뫍맦뇜헢훖쿠볌맊헏맽돌ퟮ훕틽웰뗄쾵춳럧쿕ꆣ룹뻝잰컄럖컶뗄뷡맻,뗃떽죧쿂웴쪾:뗚튻,평폚뻟폐뷏듳욽뻹뛈뗄벯좺췸싧뛔쿠볌맊헏럧쿕뗄뗖뾹솦뷏잿,틲듋,헾뢮펦듮붨솼뫃뗄릫릲럾컱욽첨,듙쪹쎿룶뒴틢웳튵퓚룼듳랶캧쓚폫룼뛠뗄웳튵뫍믺릹붨솢뫏ퟷ틔벰붻틗맘쾵,퇓뎤뒴틢닺튵뗄볛횵솴ꆣ뗚뛾,평짏럖컶뇭쏷,웳튵뗄쳘헷럖늼뷏캪뻹퓈뗄뒴틢닺튵벯좺뛔쿠볌맊헏맽돌뻟폐뷏듳뗄돐쫜솦,틲듋,헾뢮뗄헾닟펦룼뛠뗘횧돖돵뒴탍ꆢ훐킡탍뒴틢웳튵뗄랢햹,듓뛸쪹헻룶뒴틢췸싧뗄웳튵룼캪뻹뗈뗘랢햹,퓶볓뒴틢벯좺뗄컈뚨탔ꆣ뗚죽,퓚돵쪼랢짺럧쿕쪱,놾짭뻟폐룟뛈쫽늢쟒폫탭뛠뗍뛈쫽쇚뻓뷚뗣웳튵솬뷓뗄뫋탄웳튵랢짺ꆤ78ꆤ
췵ꆡ쓈:뒴틢닺튵벯좺췸싧쿠볌맊헏럧쿕퇐뺿캣믺믡뛔벯좺릹돉쿠뛔듳뗄캣쿕ꆣ틲듋,퓚뒴틢닺튵벯좺훐,뻟폐뫋탄뫍맘볼ퟷ폃뗄튻킩쿠뛔듳탍뗄웳튵뗄붡뾵돖탸랢햹럇뎣훘튪ꆣ뗚쯄,쿠볌맊헏뗄랢짺맽돌듦퓚ퟅ쇙뷧횵,벴쿠볌맊헏뗄맦쒣듯떽쒳튻쇙뷧횵쪱,닅믡틽웰헻룶벯좺뗄쾵춳럧쿕ꆣ틲듋,헾뢮펦룃쏜쟐맘힢뒴틢닺튵벯좺훐맘볼웳튵뗄퓋펪ힴ뿶,늢릹붨럧쿕풤뺯쳥쾵,좷솢뒴틢닺튵벯좺쾵춳럧쿕랢짺뗄쇙뷧쟸폲,벰쪱뗘뷸탐헯뛏ꆢ풤닢폫뿘훆,틔쏢틽웰헻룶뒴틢벯좺뗄쮥실ꆣ닎뾼컄쿗:[1]쿠폱뫬,폚펨1뇈쇚듳톧:뒴틢닺튵벯좺랢햹뗄뗘폲탔톡퓱[J]1뎤냗톧뾯,2009(5):1591[2]십킪뛻1뺭볃톧풭샭[M]1훬횾첩,돂솼,틫1놱뺩:짌컱펡쫩망,19971[3]GranovettrM1Economicactionandsocialstructure:theproblemofembeddedness[J]1AmericanJournalofSociology,1985,91(3):48125101[4]Harrison,Bennet1TheItalianindustrialdistrictsandthecrisisofthecooperativeform:partI,partII[J]1EuropeanPlanningStudies,1994,2(1):32221[5]AbrahamsonE,FombrunCJ1Macrocultures:determinantsandconsequences[J]1AcademyofManagementReview,1994,19(4):72927551[6]PorterME1Clustersandtheneweconomicsofcompetition[J]1HarvardBusinessReview,1998,76(6):772901[7]TichyG1Clusterslessdispensableandmoreriskythanever[C]//ClustersandRegionalSpecialization1London:LondonPionLimited,1998:21122251[8]FritzOM,MahringerH,ValderramaMT1Arisk2orientedanalysisofregionalclusters[C]//ClustersandRegionalSpecializa2tion1London:LondonPionLimited,19981[9]돰놣탋1랢햹닺튵벯좺튪뇜쏢뗄쿝?ꆪꆪꆪ맽뛈뺺헹쯹훂뗄ꆰ쓻쏊쫐뎡ꆱ[J]1놱뺩듳톧톧놨(헜톧짧믡뿆톧냦),1999(1):252291[10]닌쓾,퇮훹,컢뷡뇸1웳튵벯좺뗄럧쿕퇐뺿:튻룶믹폚췸싧뗄쫓뷇[J]1훐맺릤튵뺭볃,2003(4):592641[11]MarkusenA1Stickyplacesinslipperyspace:atypologyofindustrialdistricts[J]1EconomicGeography,1996,72(3):29323131[12]컢쿾늨,릢쮧1쟸폲벯좺ퟔ탔럧쿕돉틲럖컶[J]1뺭볃뗘샭,2003,23(6):72627301[13]쇵쮹낽,컢샲퓆1닺튵벯좺럧쿕뗄퇐뺿쫓뷇ꆢ샠탍폫럀랶[J]1웳튵뺭볃,2006(11):492511[14]헅쏷쇺,럫탂쟚,탬솢,뗈1닺튵벯좺폫쟸폲랢햹퇐뺿[M]1놱뺩:훐맺뺭볃돶냦짧,20051[15]퇮퓚뻼1닺튵벯좺럧쿕벰웤훎샭뗄컄쿗ퟛ쫶[J]1뺭볃ퟝ뫡,2009(6):11921211[16]샷컞캷1뒴틢닺튵룅싛[M]1놱뺩:뿆톧돶냦짧,20061[17]WattsDJ,StrogatzSH1Collectivedynamicsofꆰsmall2worldꆱnetworks[J]1Nature,1998,393(6684):44024421ResearchonCascadingFailureRisksinCreativeClustersWANGNa(11SchoolofEconomicsandManagement,BeijingUniversityofPostsandTelecommunications,Beijing100876,China;21SchoolofDepartment,JilinUniversityofFinanceandEconomics,Changchun130117,China)Abstract:Therearestructural,cyclicalandnetworkrisksincreativeclustersasothertypesofindustrialclus2ters1Whentheriskoccurs,itoftenexpressesaprocessofcascadingfailures1Thisarticlestudiestheevolutionalprocessofcascadingfailuresincreativeclustersbasedonload2capacitymodelofcomplexnetwork,ofwhich,therelationsofnetworkstructuralcharacteristicsofcreativeclusters,distributioncharacteristicsofcreativeenter2prisesandsystemrisksareexploredwithemphasis1Atlast,theriskpreventionmechanismisproposed,whichhaveimportanttheoreticalandpracticalsignificanceforthepromotionofthesustainabledevelopmentofcreativeindustryclusters1Keywords:creativeclusters;creativenetworks;cascadingfailures;risksꆤ79ꆤ
