贸易政策的社会经济及环境综合评价
Integrated assessment on the social economic and environmental impacts of trade Policy
南京农业大学经贸学院
周曙东教授
Integrated assessment on the social economic and environmental impacts of trade policy
Purpose
Focus
Timing
Indicators
Methodologies
Integrated policy responses
Purpose
Exploring the linkages between trade, development and environment
Identify the positive and negative impacts
Informing policy makers
Informing negotiators
Developing policy packages
Focus
Trade measures, trade liberalization agreements and trade related policies
Tariff, Non-tariff measure (TRQ), subsidy,
Domestic support, TRIPS, SPS, TBT
Establishing area of assessment
Sector, national, regional, global
Timing
Ex ante integrated assessment
Concurrent integrated assessment
Ex post integrated assessment
Indicators
Economic
Average real income
Net fixed capital formation
Employment
Social
Equity and poverty
Health and education
Gender inequality
Issues affecting minorities
Environmental
Environmental quality (air, water, land)
Biological diversity
Other natural resource stocks
Methodologies
Macroeconomic models
Input-Output Model
(I-O) analysis was first developed by Wassily Leontief in the 1930’s. I-O models look at the relationships between different sectors of the economy terms of their input-output inter-dependence. The basic assumption of the model is the existence of fixed input-output coefficients, the model is often represented as a matrix or table that shows the input-output coefficients for all the sectors making up the economy.
Methodologies
1. Macroeconomic models
Computable General Equilibrium Model (CGE)
CGE model defines a stable economic situation, where demand and supple are equalized in all sectors. It focuses on the interconnectedness of markets. CGE model makes it possible to trace the impact of trade policy externalities on the costs of production and consumer welfare.
CGE 模型是英文Computable General Equilibrium Model 的缩写,国内译为“可计算的一般均衡模型”。
1 生产模块
2 贸易模块
3 收入分配和政府政策
4 消费模块
5 均衡模块
CGE 模型的计算机实现
显然人工求解应用CGE 模型在一般情况是不可能的。对CGE 模型的求解肯定要借助于计算机,在80 年代,世界银行开发了一套软件GAMS (General Algebraic Modeling System , 一般数学模型系统) 。GAMS 可以用来建立和求解大型经济数学模型。类似高级语言的数据结构定义,GAMS 有一套书写规则,使用者只要按照规则逐项写出输入部门,如模型变量、方程、参数、原始数据、目标函数等,就可以得到答案。GAMS 具有较好的查错功能,并且输出文件比较系统,大大方便了研究者进行各种分析。
另一套类似软件是GEMPACK
国务院发展研究中心
表一：社会核算矩阵 ( Social Accounting Matrix )
亚太经合组织贸易自由化的一般均衡模型
Global Trade Analysis Project (GTAP)
GTAP model is a widely applied general computable equilibrium model dealing with the interaction between trade and the environment. Developed by the Center for Global Trade Analysis in Purdue University, version 3 of GTAP divides the world economy into 37 industries or sector in 20 countries, and 10 composite regions or country groups.
GTAP模型结构图
Methodologies
2. Sector-based / microeconomic models
Partial Equilibrium Model (PE)
Partial Equilibrium model calculates the effects of policy changes on one or several sectors, while ignoring the effects on other sectors on the assumption that the good being examined is too small to have any significant impact on the rest of the economy.
Substance throughput related to economic activity model (STREAM)
STREAM is a partial equilibrium model for materials flows developed by the CPB Netherlands Bureau of Economic Policy Analysis. It describes the material flows of steel, aluminium, plastic, paper, ammonia, phosphorus and potassium.
The model allows the material producer to choose between primary and secondary production and technologies that subsequently depend on the use of such inputs as : labor, capital, electricity, coal, oil, gas, and raw materials.
Methodologies
3. Other approaches
Life cycle analysis (LCA)
The focus of some environmental policy is changing, from an almost exclusive emphasis on the reduction of emissions, to a broader consideration of the entire processes involved in the production and consumption of a product. The end goal is the development of a “product policy” aimed at reducing the environmental impacts along the entire life cycle of the product.
Methodologies
3. Other approaches
Global Commodity Chains Analysis (GCCA)
GCCA does not focus on the inputs and outputs at the various stages of the product’s life cycle. It evaluates the social and economic relationships between all the actors (producers,consumers,traders, government agencies) involved in the chain. 4 dimensions: input-output structure along the chain; territory serviced by various actors; assessment of the chain’s internal governance structure; institutional framework at local, national, and international level.
Methodologies
3. Other approaches
Scenario-building
It does not aim to project the most likely outcomes (forecasting), nor does it attempt to judge what should happen. Instead, analysts identify a range of possible outcomes. The process starts by defining the area for investigation, which may be the impact of globalization, trade liberalization or trade agreements.
Methodologies
4. Approaches used in the valuation
Extended Domestic Resource Cost (EDRC)
It aims to measure distortions in the domestic sector, so the gains from trade liberalization can be estimated. When environmental costs are included in the calculations, so that the prices in the model reflect the true social value of goods and services, the DRC becomes extended domestic resource cost.
Methodologies
4. Approaches used in the valuation
Shadow price
In programming model, it will estimated margin for resource (land, labor force), which can be considered as shadow prices to be used for integrated assessment.
Methodologies
4. Approaches used in the valuation
Cost-Benefit Analysis (CBA)
CBA is a framework that allows the monetized costs and benefits of an activity, project, or policy to be compared, using the various valuation tools. It is a useful way of converting all the information relevant to the assessment of a proposed action into a comparable and easily understood form.
Cost-Benefit Analysis (CBA)
社会与环境影响的定量评价
5. Environmental assessment
