2005쓪9퓂떱듺뺭볃뿆톧Sep.,2005뗚27뻭ꆡ뗚5웚ꆡ믣싊뻶뚨샭싛뗄탂뷼랢햹:컄쿗ퟛ쫶돂폪슶,뫮ꆡ뷜(훐맺죋쏱듳톧닆헾뷰죚톧풺,놱뺩100872)햪튪:뒫춳믣싊뻶뚨샭싛뛔폚쿖쪵뺭볃훐믣싊쪵볊뇤뚯쟩뿶뗄뷢쫍쓜솦쪮럖뗍쿂ꆣ20쫀볍80쓪듺틔살,톧쫵뷧늻뛏톰쟳춻웆,틔웚캪믣싊죧뫎뻶뚨헢튻믹놾쏼쳢쳡릩룼캪뫏샭뗄뷢쫍ꆣ퓚헢튻맽돌훐,늻뛏폐탂뗄컄쿗돶쿖,듓늻춬뗄랽쏦뛔뒫춳뗄믣싊샭싛뷸탐늹돤ꆢ랢햹뫍쳦듺ꆣ본폚듋,놾컄쫔춼뛔믣싊뻶뚨샭싛뗄탂뷼랢햹뷸탐쫡샭뫍뷩짜,뷨틔캪맺쓚뺭볃톧뷧퇐뺿믣싊뻶뚨컊쳢쳡릩튻룶샭싛닎뾼ꆣ맘볼듊:믣싊뻶뚨샭싛;탂뾪럅뺭볃뫪맛뺭볃톧;췢믣쫐뎡캢맛뷡릹;믬샭싛훐춼럖샠뫅:ꆡꆡ컄쿗뇪쪶싫:Aꆡꆡ컄헂뇠뫅:1002-2848-2005(05)-0045-08ꆡꆡ뒫춳뗄믣싊뻶뚨샭싛훷튪듓뫪맛믹놾틲쯘,죧쿠닺쫐뎡럖컶램쪢탐뗄쪱웚ꆣ퓚헢튻뷗뛎,뺭볃톧볒뛔믵뇒릩펦솿ꆢ샻싊ꆢ컯볛쮮욽ꆢ뺭볃퓶뎤ꆢ쓚췢닺쏇돽쇋훂솦폚붨솢뫍삩햹룷훖믣싊뻶뚨뗄닺쫐뎡뗄쳦듺탔뫍뻹뫢볛룱뗄뗷헻쯙뛈뗈,살뷢쫍믣싊뗄뻶쒣탍,춬쪱튲퓚훂솦폚듓볆솿뺭볃톧뗄뷇뛈뛔헢킩뚨뫍늨뚯ꆣ퓚뛔헢킩틲쯘뷸탐럖컶뗄맽돌훐,탎돉쇋쒣탍뷸탐쪵횤볬퇩ꆣ좻뛸,듳솿쪵횤퇐뺿뗄뷡맻좴틔짌욷쎳틗캪훷뗄쇷솿쒣탍뫍틔닺붻뮻캪훷뗄듦뇭쏷,헢킩뫪맛뷡릹뗄쒣탍뛔뢡뚯믣싊쳵볾쿂뗄믣솿쒣탍,잰헟죧퓧웚뗄릺싲솦욽볛쮵ꆢ믣싊뻶뚨뗄맺싊뷢쫍쓜솦럇뎣뗘죵ꆣ쳘뇰쫇퓚Meese&Rogoff볊쫕횧쮵,뫳헟죧[1]20쫀볍70쓪듺훐웚탋웰뗄닺쫐(1983)쪹폃퇹놾췢풤닢럖컶뗄퇐뺿훐,쯻쏇랢쿖뎡럖컶램,냼삨떯탔볛룱뗄믵뇒쒣탍ꆢ햳탔볛룱믵뇒닺쫐뎡믣싊쒣탍뗄풤닢쓜솦늢늻쏷쿔쪤맽쯦믺폎쒣탍ꆢ믵뇒쳦듺쒣탍뫍닺ퟩ뫏욽뫢쒣탍뗈ꆣ좻뛸쿖ퟟ쒣탍ꆣ헢튻뺪죋뗄뷡싛뛔믣싊뻶뚨뗄닺쫐뎡럖쪵뺭볃훐,좴뫜쓑퓋폃헢킩뒫춳샭싛살풤닢맺볊뷰죚컶램쫇튻룶돁훘뗄듲믷,쯤좻뫳살튻킩톧헟(죧Sa2쫐뎡믣싊뗄ퟟ쫆,듳솿뗄쪵횤볬퇩뷡맻튲뇭쏷,뒫춳lemi,1984)뗄퇐뺿랢쿖퓚튻룶쿠뛔뎤뗄풤닢볤뻠쮮믣싊샭싛뗄뷢쫍쓜솦쪮럖뗍쿂,폈웤뛔뛌웚쓚뗄믣싊욽짏,닺쫐뎡믣싊쒣탍뗄풤닢쓜솦뮹쫇튪뇈쯦믺뇤뮯,풤닢쓜솦짵훁솬볲떥뗄쯦믺폎ퟟ쒣탍뚼늻죧ꆣ폎ퟟ쒣탍뗄풤닢쓜솦잿,늢쟒헢튻뷡싛훰붥뗃떽뛠쏦뛔헢튻삧믳,20쫀볍80쓪듺틔살뫜뛠톧헟늻뛏톰쫽죋뗄죏춬,떫쫇퓚뛌웚뗄풤닢쮮욽짏,Meese&쟳뛔뒫춳샭싛뗄춻웆,붫믣싊뻶뚨샭싛뗄랢햹췆쿲쇋Rogoff뗄뷡싛뮹듓캴놻폐쮵럾솦뗄횤뻝췆랭ꆣ튻룶탂뗄뷗뛎ꆣ놾컄붫뛔헢튻탂뗄뷗뛎믣싊뻶뚨샭Meese&Rogoff뗄뷡싛뷡쫸쇋믣싊뻶뚨뗄닺싛뗄랢햹ퟷ튻뷏캪좫쏦뗄쫡샭ꆣ쫐뎡럖컶램뗄믆뷰쪱듺,헢튻폃뫪맛뺭볃톧뗄샭싛튻ꆢ췢믣쫐뎡폐킧탔뗄훊틉:샭싛춻웆뗄웰뗣뿲볜릹훾웰살늢뗃떽늻뛏랢햹뗄믣싊샭싛쿝죫튻훖쓑틔ퟔ풲웤쮵뗄캣믺ꆣ쏦뛔헢튻삧믳,죋쏇뾪쪼훘20쫀볍70쓪듺훁80쓪듺돵,쫇믣싊뻶뚨뗄탂짳쫓믣싊뻶뚨뫪맛뷡릹쒣탍뗄볙짨잰쳡ꆢ럖컶쫓ꆡꆡ쫕룥죕웚:2005-07-11ퟷ헟볲뷩:돂폪슶(1966-),뫓놱쪯볒죋,뷌쫚ꆢ늩쪿짺떼쪦,훐맺죋쏱듳톧뢱킣뎤ꆢ닆헾뷰죚톧풺풺뎤,퇐뺿랽쿲:뾪럅뺭볃쿂뗄뷰죚샭싛폫헾닟,맺볊놾쫐뎡;뫮뷜(1978-),붭쯕틇헷죋,훐맺죋쏱듳톧닆헾뷰죚톧풺늩쪿퇐뺿짺,퇐뺿랽쿲:뾪럅뺭볃쿂뗄뷰죚샭싛폫헾닟ꆣ45' 1994-2007 China Academic Journal Electronic Publishing House. All rights reserved.
뷇틔벰럖컶릤뻟,듓늻춬뗄랽쏦뷸탐춻웆뫍랢햹,쫔컅쒣탍뇭쏷,캴풤볻떽뗄벴웚믣싊뗄뇤뮯쫇평믹놾춼뛔쿖쪵뺭볃훐쓍죋톰캶뛸폖쇮죋럑뷢뗄믣싊쿖쿳뺭볃뇤솿뗄ꆰ탂컅ꆱ틽웰ꆣ믹폚헢튻뷡싛,죎뫎탂컅룸돶룼캪뫏샭뗄뷢쫍,탂튻싖믣싊뻶뚨샭싛뗄퇐뺿틲쯘춨맽펰쿬췢믣쫐뎡짏붻틗헟뗄풤웚뚼쓜릻벰쪱샋뎱평듋뾪쪼돶쿖,뛸ퟷ캪믣싊뻶뚨샭싛춻웆뫍랢폐킧뗄죚죫떽벴웚믲풶웚믣싊횮훐ꆣ평폚벴웚믣싊햹뗄럖컶웰뗣뗄,퓲쫇죋쏇뛔뫪맛뷡릹쒣탍훐튻룶뫍풶웚믣싊횮볤뗄쪱볤쓚믡폐ꆰ탂컅ꆱ틲쯘뗄돶쿖,훘튪볙짨잰쳡ꆪꆪꆪꆰ폐킧쫐뎡ꆱ뗄훊틉ꆣ듓뛸뿉쓜떼훂풶웚믣싊쫇붫살벴웚믣싊뗄폐욫맀폐킧쫐뎡볙쮵쫇평[2]Fama(1965)ퟮ쿈쳡돶,퓧볆,헢뻍뿉틔폃살뷢쫍췢믣쫐뎡폐킧탔볬퇩쪧냜뗄웚훷튪폃폚막욱쫐뎡뗄퇐뺿,펦폃떽췢믣쫐뎡,퓲쫇풭틲ꆣ뛸ꆰ탂컅ꆱ틲쯘늻뛏뷸죫췢믣쫐뎡퓲뿉틔퓚횸믣싊(냼삨벴웚믣싊뫍풶웚믣싊)돤럖랴펳쯹폐튻뚨돌뛈짏뷢쫍믣싊뗄욵랱늨뚯ꆣ쇭췢,ꆰ탂컅ꆱ뗄쿠맘뫍뿉쓜뗃떽뗄탅쾢,춶헟늻뿉쓜뗃뎬뛮샻늻뿉풤볻탔틢캶ퟅꆰ탂컅ꆱ뗄돶쿖쫇튻룶쯦믺폎ퟟ죳,뻹뫢볛룱쫇퓚췪좫탅쾢쳵볾쿂탎돉뗄볛룱,쫐뎡맽돌,룹뻝탂컅쒣탍,뿉틔뗃떽캴풤닢떽뗄벴웚믣싊쫇쯹폐탅쾢뗄쏴룐웷,뗷뷚ퟅ볛룱뇤뚯ꆣ췢믣쫐뎡뗄뇤뮯튲붫쫇튻룶쯦믺폎ퟟ맽돌,헢튻뷡싛폖뿉틔폐킧탔뗄볙쮵훷튪냼몬쇋쫐뎡닎폫헟샭탔풤웚뫍럧뛔벴웚믣싊뗄슷뺶뷼쯆뗄ퟱ톭쯦믺폎ퟟ헢튻뺭퇩맦쿕훐탔솽룶뫋탄볙짨,틲듋쪵볊짏쫇튻룶솪뫏뗄쳵퓲룸폨뷢쫍ꆣ볾(Hansen&H[3]odrick,1980)ꆣ퓚80쓪듺,돶쿖떫쫇,Mussa뗄탂컅쒣탍듦퓚ퟅ솽룶듳뗄좱쿝:쇋듳솿뗄볬퇩췢믣쫐뎡폐킧탔뗄컄쿗,컞싛쫇뛔벴튻룶쫇퓚웤쒣탍췆떼뗄맽돌훐뛔샭탔춶믺엝쒭뗄뫶웚췢믣쫐뎡폐킧탔뗄볬퇩(죧Cumby&Obstfeld,싔,늢쟒룸돶뗄뫶싔샭평늻쓜쇮죋싺틢,뛸헢랽쏦퓚[4][5]1981;Dooley&Shafter,1983),뮹쫇뛔풶웚췢춶믺엝쒭쒣탍훐뗃틔뾼싇;쇭튻룶좱쿝쫇쎻폐횸쏷믣쫐뎡폐킧탔뗄볬퇩(죧Fama,1984;Hansen&ꆰ탂컅ꆱ뗄뻟쳥쓚죝,뛔듋[10],Edwards(1983)뷸탐쇋H[6][7]odrick,1980),ퟜ쳥살쮵,믹놾짏뚼뻜뻸쇋췢랢햹,룸돶쇋튻룶뇪쏷ꆰ탂컅ꆱ뻟쳥쓚죝뗄탂컅쒣믣쫐뎡뗄폐킧탔ꆣ죧맻쮵뫪맛뷡릹믣싊샭싛컞램뛔탍,늢룸돶쇋룷훖ꆰ탂컅ꆱ뗄킧펦,떫헢죔좻뷶뷶쫇쿖쪵뺭볃훐뻧쇒늨뚯뗄췢믣쫐뎡룸폨폐킧뷢쫍퓚믣튻훖샭싛짏뗄췆뛏ꆣ싊뻶뚨샭싛랢햹맽돌훐탎돉쇋튻룶쿖쪵뗄삧믳,쓇탂컅쒣탍쳡돶틔뫳,뫜뛠톧헟닉폃늻춬뗄랽램쎴뛔췢믣쫐뎡폐킧탔뗄쪵횤퇐뺿퓲캪헢튻삧믳듲뾪뛔웤뷸탐쪵횤볬퇩ꆣDornbusch(1980)ꆢFrenkel쇋튻룶춻웆뗄좱뿚ꆣ[11](1981)뗈톧헟뗄퓧웚쪵횤퇐뺿뷡맻횧돖탂컅뛔뛾ꆢ샭탔풤웚쿂뛔췢믣쫐뎡믣싊뇤뮯뗄펰쿬,떫쯻쏇쯹쪹폃뗄랽램놾짭뻟폐튻폐킧탔볬퇩쪧냜뗄뷢쫍뚨뗄뻖쿞탔ꆣ80쓪듺훐웚틔뫳,뛔탂컅쒣탍뗄쪵횤퇐뺿훘뗣랢짺쇋뇤,벯훐퓚ꆰ릫룦킧펦ꆱ뗄퇐뺿ꆡꆡ쪵횤볬퇩뻜뻸쇋폐킧췢믣쫐뎡볙쮵,캪믣싊뻶(죧E[12]ngel,1984;Ito&Roley,1990),쪵횤뗄뷡뚨샭싛뗄뷸튻늽랢햹쳡릩쇋튻룶쟐죫뗣ꆣ튻킩죏캪맻튲믹놾짏뇭쏷쇋ꆰ탂컅ꆱ뛔믣싊뗄뇤뚯뻟폐펰쿬ꆣ샭탔풤웚볙뚨뿉틔뷼쯆돉솢뗄뺭볃톧볒,퓚헢튻볙폫듋춬쪱,튻킩쪵횤볬퇩(죧Copeland,1984)튲쿔뚨쿂듓늻춬뗄랽쏦뛔췢믣쫐뎡폐킧탔볬퇩쪧냜룸폨쪾,탂컅쒣탍퓚뷢쫍믣싊뇤뚯랽쏦죔좻늻쓜쇮죋싺뷢쫍,탎돉쇋믣싊뻶뚨뗄탂컅쒣탍뫍춶엝쒭쒣탍,틢,횻쓜릻폐쿞뗘늿럖뗘뷢쫍믣싊늨뚯,헽죧David2늢쟒듓뇈쯷컊쳢뫍럧쿕늹쳹뗈랽쏦튲뷸탐쇋뷢[13]son(1985)쯹횸돶뗄,쿖쪵훐믣싊뗄뇤뚯뇈뒫춳쫍[8]ꆣ쪵횤뷡맻뇭쏷,헢킩샭싛뺡맜뛔믣싊뗄뷢쫍뗄ꆰ탂컅ꆱ뇤뚯럹뛈룼듳ꆢ욵싊룼룟ꆣ뺡맜쿖폐뗄탂죔좻늻쓜쇮죋싺틢,떫틑뺭쏷쿔웰떽쇋ퟷ폃ꆣ컅쒣탍뮹뫜늻췪짆,쪵횤뗄뷡맻튲늻쓜췪좫쇮죋싺(튻)믣싊뻶뚨뗄탂컅쒣탍틢,떫쫇죋쏇퓚쪵볊뺭볃훐뎣뎣쓜릻룐뻵떽틢췢뗄탂컅쒣탍쫇퓚닺쫐뎡뫪맛뷡릹쒣탍뗄믹뒡짏ꆰ탂컅ꆱ탅쾢뛔벴웚믣싊뗄퓋뚯맬벣닺짺뗄펰쿬,헢뷡뫏샭탔풤웚볙쮵붨솢웰살뗄,ퟮ퓧평Mussa뻍쫇탂컅쒣탍퓚샭싛짏쓜쇮죋탅럾뗄뗘랽ꆣ[9](1979)쳡돶,쯻붫럇풤웚뗄늢쟒쓜릻틽웰죋쏇뛔(뛾)샭탔춶믺엝쒭쒣탍믣싊뗄풤웚횵뷸탐탞룄뗄탂뗄탅쾢춳돆캪ꆰ탂컅ꆱ,탂컅쒣탍룹뻝캴풤쇏떽뗄믹놾뺭볃뇤솿뗄뇤뮯뷸뛸럖컶쇋ꆰ탂컅ꆱ뛔믣싊퓋뚯뗄펰쿬ꆣMussa뗄탂살뷢쫍믣싊뗄뇤뚯탔,좻뛸,췢믣쫐뎡짏폐쪱믡퓚믹46' 1994-2007 China Academic Journal Electronic Publishing House. All rights reserved.
놾뺭볃뇤솿쎻폐뫜듳뇤뮯뗄쟩뿶쿂돶쿖놩헇뫍놩늻돶살ꆣ좻뛸헢룶킡룅싊훘듳쫂볾뗄잱퓚랢짺믡뛔뗸,헢훖쿖쿳볈컞램폃믣싊뎬뗷샭싛튲컞램폃믣싊쫐뎡닎폫헟뗄탐캪뫍풤웚닺짺훘듳펰쿬,쪹뗃풤웚뗄탂컅쒣탍살뷢쫍,폚쫇튻킩톧헟퓚샭탔풤웚뗄볙뗄믣싊뇤뚯뫍쪵볊뗄믣싊뇤뚯랽쿲믡돶쿖룕뫃쿠랴짨쿂뛔헢훖믣싊쿖쿳뷸탐쇋럖컶,닺짺쇋믣싊뇤뚯뗄쿖쿳,춬쪱튲쪹뗃풶웚췢믣쫐뎡폐킧탔뗄볬퇩뇤뗄샭탔춶믺엝쒭쒣탍ꆣ헢랽쏦뗄퇐뺿ퟮ뻟듺뇭탔뗄뗃컞킧,헢뻍쫇쯹캽뗄ꆰ뇈쯷컊쳢ꆱꆣ떱쫽B[14][15]lanchard(1979)뫍Dornbusch(1983),뇈쯷컊쳢틔벰샭탔믣싊엝쒭캪뢡뚯믣싊훆쿂믣쯻쏇뗄릱쿗쪹뗃죋쏇뛔샭탔춶믺엝쒭쿖쿳헢훖폫믹싊늨뚯듳럹뛈욫샫뫪맛믹놾틲쯘쳡릩쇋솽룶랽쏦뗄놾뺭볃뇤솿뗄퓋뚯늻튻훂뗄ퟔ컒잿뮯뗄믣싊퓋뚯폐뷢쫍,횸돶쇋췢믣쫐뎡폐킧탔볬퇩뗄늻짵샭쿫뿉쓜쇋룼캪짮죫뗘죏쪶ꆣ샭탔춶믺엝쒭쒣탍훐뇭듯돶뗄쫇평폚샭탔춶믺엝쒭뫍뇈쯷컊쳢뗄듦퓚ꆣ떫벴쪹뾼믹놾쮼쿫쫇,떱웚돵뗄믣싊쿠뛔폚평믹놾틲쯘쯹뻶싇헢킩틲쯘,튲늢늻쓜뗃돶췢믣쫐뎡튻뚨쫇폐킧뗄ꆣ뚨뗄쮮욽폐튻룶욫샫,퓲닺짺튻룶엝쒭뗄풴춷,샭탔(쯄)듓ꆰ럧쿕쳹늹ꆱ뷸탐뗄뷢쫍풤웚쿂,쫐뎡닎폫헟풤웚믣싊붫뷸튻늽욫샫뻹뫢쮮췢믣쫐뎡폐킧탔볙쮵뗄뫋탄볙짨잰쳡횮튻쫇럧욽,춶헟횮쯹틔볌탸릺싲놻룟맀뗄믵뇒,쫇횸췻쓜쿕훐탔,뛸럧쿕늹쳹헽쫇듓뛔헢튻볙짨잰쳡뗄럱뚨릻믱뗃풤웚믵뇒뷸튻늽짽횵듸살뗄쫕틦,늢쟒쓜릻돶랢살뷢쫍췢믣쫐뎡폐킧탔볬퇩뗄쪧냜뫍믣싊뛔믹룏퓚믣싊ퟮ훕믘떽평믹놾뺭볃뇤솿쯹뻶뚨뗄뻹뫢횵놾틲쯘뗄욫샫ꆣ샭탔풤웚쿂,죧맻럅쯉럧쿕훐탔뗄횮잰붫믵뇒싴돶ꆣ쫐뎡춶믺뗄췆뚯쿂,엝쒭쯦ퟅ믣쳵볾,죏캪춶헟쫇퇡뛱럧쿕뗄,퓲퓚풶웚믣싊뫍풤싊뗄뿬쯙짏짽뛸엲헍,춶믺헟믡퓚쎿튻웚뷡쫸잰에웚붫살벴웚믣싊횮볤뻍폐튻룶럧쿕늹쳹,풶웚믣싊뛏엝쒭웆쏰뗄룅싊,믣싊짏짽풽룟,엝쒭웆쏰뗄룅싊늻퓙쫇풤웚벴웚믣싊뗄컞욫맀볆ꆣ돖폐헢튻맛뗣뗄풽듳,캪쇋늹뎥퓶볓뗄엝쒭웆쏰럧쿕,믣싊뇘탫틔룼톧헟죏캪럧쿕늹쳹쫇펰쿬쫐뎡폐킧탔뗄튻룶훘튪풭뿬뗄쯙뛈짏짽,헢폖뷸튻늽췆뚯쇋엝쒭뗄엲헍ꆣ틲틲ꆣ럧쿕늹쳹ퟷ캪뛔믣싊쿖쿳뗄튻훖뷢쫍,웤맘볼듋,샭탔춶믺엝쒭샭싛뗃돶쇋튻룶돵웚뗄욫샫퓚샭컊쳢퓚폚럧쿕늹쳹쫇럱듦퓚,럧쿕늹쳹쫇럱쯦쪱볤탔풤웚뗄쳵볾쿂믡떼훂믣싊샭탔엝쒭뗄짺돉늢뷸튻랢짺뇤뚯ꆣ뛔듋,뫜뛠톧헟뷸탐쇋퇐뺿ꆣ뛔폚럧쿕늽볓쯙엲헍뗄뷡싛ꆣ룃샭싛쳡돶뫳,뫜뛠톧헟뛔웤늹쳹쫇럱듦퓚,퓚F[18]rankel(1982)릱쿗뗄튻욪컄뷸탐쇋쪵횤볬퇩,Huang(1981)ꆢLearney&MacDon2쿗훐,웤맀볆뗄뷡맻뗃돶늻쓜뻜뻸럧쿕훐탔볙쮵;[16]ald(1986)뗈틔잿폐솦뗄횤뻝횤쏷쇋샭탔엝쒭뗄T[19]aylor(1987)폃튻룶쒣탍맀볆쇋1976쓪3퓂ꆫ듦퓚ꆣ1986쓪7퓂쏀풪/펢냷ꆢ쏀풪/죰쪿램색뫍쏀풪/죕(죽)듓ꆰ뇈쯷컊쳢ꆱ뷸탐뗄뷢쫍풪뗄퓂뛈쫽뻝,웤뷡맻퓲쿔쪾럧쿕늹쳹쫇듦퓚뗄ꆣꆰ뇈쯷컊쳢ꆱ헢튻쏻돆살ퟔ폚1976쓪뗄쒫컷룧퓚뛔럧쿕늹쳹쫇럱쯦쪱볤뇤뚯뗄퇐뺿랽쏦,Frenkel뇈쯷뇡횵쫂볾ꆣ퓚쓇듎뗄뇈쯷뇡횵횮잰,쒫컷룧쪵(1980)쪵횤뷡맻횧돖폐킩믣싊뗄럧쿕늹쳹늻뇤,뛸탐뗄쫇만뚨믣싊훆,평폚뇈쯷뗄듦뿮샻싊룟폚쏀풪폐킩쫇뇤뮯뗄;S[20]tockman(1978)쪵횤쿔쪾럧쿕늹샻싊,죋쏇풤웚뇈쯷붫뇡횵ꆣ떫쫇뺡맜죧듋,뇈쯷뗄쳹뿉쓜퓚럻뫅짏뇤뮯;Fam[21]a(1984)뗄쪵횤뷡맻짽횵좴튻횱돖탸떽1976쓪8퓂31죕ꆣ헢튻쳬,쒫퓲횧돖쯦쪱볤뇤뚯뗄럧쿕늹쳹뗄듦퓚ꆣ뿉틔뾴돶,컷룧헾뢮퓊탭뇈쯷뢡뚯,뇈쯷튻쿂ퟓ뇡횵46%,뇡럧쿕늹쳹뛔믣싊욫샫샻싊욽볛쳡릩쇋튻훖뷢쫍,떫횵풤웚훕폚돉캪쿖쪵ꆣ뫳살,죋쏇뛔뇈쯷뇡횵잰뇈쫇헢랽쏦뗄쪵횤볬퇩늢쎻폐췪좫튻훂뗄뷡싛ꆣ쯷뫍쏀풪믣싊횮볤퓚뫜뎤튻뛎쪱웚샯튻횱폐튻룶럇쇣뗄풶웚짽쮮쿖쿳뷸탐쇋샭싛뗄쳡솶뫍짽뮪죽ꆢ20쫀볍90쓪듺뫳믣싊뻶뚨샭싛뗄,웤훐죽룶훘튪랢햹랽쿲K[17]rasker(1980)쳡릩쇋뇈뷏폐듺뇭탔뗄싛쫶ꆣ쯻횸돶쯤좻죋쏇틑뺭풤웚떽뻶뚨믣싊쮮욽뗄믹놾틲쯘ꆡꆡ20쫀볍90쓪듺틔살,뒫춳뗄믣싊뻶뚨뫪맛뷡붫믡랢짺뷏듳뇤뮯,떫평폚헢튻뇤뮯쫇튻룶훘듳쫂릹쒣탍훐놻ퟷ캪볙짨잰쳡믲놻죏캪쫇늻훘튪뗄쾸뷚볾,쯤좻퓚컞쿞쪱볤뗄뿧뛈쓚,헢튻쫂볾랢짺뗄뿉쓜뛸뫶싔뗄랽쏦훰붥뷸죫쇋퇐뺿뗄쫓튰,탎돉쇋튻킩탔뫜듳,떫퓚튻뚨쿞뛈뗄퇹놾웚볤쓚,룃쫂볾랢짺뗄탂뗄랢햹랽쿲ꆣ웤훐,튻킩뺭볃톧볒뾪쪼맘힢풭폐룅싊좴뫜킡,퓚볬퇩뗄폐쿞퇹놾웚볤쓚뿉쓜뻍랴펳믣싊샭싛캴퓸뾼싇뗄뫪맛뺭볃맘쾵뗄캢맛믹뒡,듓47' 1994-2007 China Academic Journal Electronic Publishing House. All rights reserved.
뛸탎돉쇋뻟폐캢맛믹뒡뗄믣싊뫪맛뺭볃럖컶랽램;싛뺭퇩럖컶뷡맻늻병뗄풭틲ꆣ폫듋춬쪱,믹폚뛔샭탔풤웚뗄엺에,듓췢믣쫐뎡캢맛퓚Obstfeld&Rogoff(1995)뻟폐뮮쪱듺틢틥뗄뷡릹퇐뺿돶랢뗄믣싊뻶뚨뗄캢맛뷡릹샭싛뫍듓쫐뎡뫪캢맛튻훂믹놾쒣탍(틔쿂볲돆OR쒣탍)믹뒡짏,닎폫헟틬훊탔떼훂믣싊믬퓋뚯쮼쿫돶랢뗄믣싊뻶뫜뛠톧헟퓚늻춬뗄랽쏦뛔믣싊샭싛뷸탐쇋랢햹ꆣ뚨뗄믬럖컶랽램튲뗇짏쇋샭싛랢햹뗄샺쪷컨첨ꆣB[24]etts&Devereux(1996)뫍Obstfeld&Rogoff헢죽룶랽쿲튻웰,릲춬퇝틯쇋떱잰믣싊뻶뚨샭싛뗄(2000)럖뇰춨맽볙뚨뷸뿚랽믵뇒볛룱햳탔뫍돶뿚ퟮ탂춻웆뫍랢햹ꆣ랽믵뇒볛룱햳탔룄뷸쇋OR쒣탍뛔믣싊탐캪뗄뷢쫍쓜솦[25](튻)뻟폐캢맛믹뒡뗄믣싊뫪맛뺭볃럖컶랽램;Hau(1998)릱쿗쇋튻욪컄쿗퇐뺿쇋릤햳튻킩퇐뺿헟횸돶,뒫춳믣싊뻶뚨샭싛뗄럖컶튻탔뛔뾪럅뺭볃훐믣싊뗄펰쿬ꆣObstfeld&Rogoff횱붨솢퓚뫪맛뺭볃맘쾵뗄뿲볜횮쿂,뛸뫶쫓쇋캢맛[26](1998)붫믵뇒뗄늻좷뚨탔틽죫쇋쒣탍훐,횤쏷쇋믹뒡뗄ퟷ폃ꆣ쯻쏇죏캪,믣싊룼듳돌뛈짏뿉틔뾴ퟷ믵뇒뗄늻좷뚨탔돥믷믡럅듳믣싊뇤뚯뗄럹뛈,뗃돶쫇죋쏇룹뻝ퟔ벺뗄쿻럑랽쪽톡퓱쓚췢닺뗄뷡맻,룟춨믵엲헍맺볒춬쪱튲믡쏦쇙믣싊뗄뻞럹늨뚯뗄뷡뺭볃훷쳥뗄탐캪벰웤펰쿬틲쯘뗈캢맛믹뒡퓚뫪맛뺭싛;퓚Obstfeld&Rogoff(1998)헢튻몬폐늻좷뚨탔뗄볃뇤솿랢짺뇤뮯맽돌훐웰ퟅ훘튪뗄ퟷ폃,틲듋퓚뛔쒣탍믹뒡짏,Devereux&E[27]ngel(1999)뷸튻늽볓웤뗄퇐뺿훐늻쓜뫶싔ꆣ믹폚헢훖맛뗣,뻍탎돉쇋뻟죫쫐뎡뚨볛틲쯘뫳럖컶쇋믵뇒돥믷뛔믣싊뇤뚯뗄펰폐캢맛믹뒡뗄믣싊뫪맛뺭볃럖컶랽램,뛸헢튻럖컶쿬ꆣ평폚OR쒣탍볲싔뗄죏캪쎿룶죋뛔맺쓚췢짌욷랽램폖쫇뫳살놻춳돆캪탂뾪럅뺭볃뫪맛뺭볃톧뗄훘뚼뻟폐쿠춬뗄욫뫃,듓뛸맺쓚췢짌욷쫇췪좫뿉쳦듺튪쓚죝뫍ퟩ돉늿럖ꆣ뗄,Corsetti&P[28]esenti(1998)뛔듋쳵볾뷸탐쇋룄퓚헢튻랽쿲뗄퇐뺿훐,Svensson&Wijnbergen뷸,퓚볙뚨맺쓚췢짌욷횮볤떥캻쳦듺떯탔뗄믹뒡짏,(1989)뗄싛컄ퟶ돶쇋쿈쟽탔뗄릱쿗,쯻쏇쪹폃쇋뿧퇐뺿쇋믵뇒돥믷뛔믣싊뗄펰쿬,Betts&Devereux쪱럖컶랽램[29],붨솢쇋튻룶폐캢맛믹뒡뗄햳탔볛룱쒣(1998)퓲붫믵뇒탨쟳뗄쿻럑떯탔ퟷ캪뇤솿틽죫탍,떫쫇평폚쪹폃쇋쳘쫢뗄볙뚨,헢튻쒣탍늢캴쓜뗃OR쒣탍훐,뗃돶퓚쫐뎡뚨볛쳵볾쿂,믵뇒탨쟳뗄쿻떽맣랺뗘퓋폃ꆣ1995쓪,Obstfeld&Rogoff퓚ꆶ헾훎럑떯탔폫믣싊늨뚯돊뢺쿠맘맘쾵ꆣ쪵볊짏,ퟔOR뺭볃톧퓓횾ꆷ짏랢뇭쇋쳢캪ꆶ믣싊뚯첬톧뗄믘맩ꆷ튻쒣탍쳡돶틔살,퓚듋믹뒡짏뛔믣싊샭싛뗄랢햹닣돶컄[22],붫쏻틥볛룱룕탔뫍늻췪좫뺺헹틽죫럖컶,붨늻쟮,틔짏쇐돶뗄횻쫇웤훐뗄튻킩훷튪늿럖,평폚헢솢쇋튻룶뻟폐볡쪵캢맛믹뒡뗄뫪캢맛튻훂뗄믣싊쒣튻랽쏦뗄랢햹틽죫쇋캢맛믹뒡뛔풭폐뗄뫪맛럖컶랽탍,뇪횾쇋탂뾪럅뺭볃뫪맛뺭볃톧뗄뒴솢ꆣ듋뫳,붨램뷸탐늹돤,쪹뗃탂뗄럖컶뿲볜쿂뛔믣싊뗄럖컶룼솢퓚뫪캢맛튻훂럖컶믹뒡짏뗄믣싊퇐뺿톸쯙랢햹웰볓쳹뷼쪵볊ꆣ쒿잰,뻟폐캢맛믹뒡뗄믣싊뫪맛뺭볃살,헢튻랢햹랽쿲뗄튻룶믹놾맛뗣쫇풭폐뫪맛뷡릹럖컶랽램죔퓚랢햹횮훐,평폚헢튻럖컶랽램붨솢퓚쒣탍뗄뺭퇩퇐뺿뷡맻늻샭쿫뗄풭틲늻쫇뫪맛뺭볃뇤훷쇷뺭볃톧뗄뿲볜횮짏,뫜뛠훸쏻뗄톧헟볓쏋웤훐,솿뗄컊쳢,뛸쫇쒣탍탨튪탞헽ꆣ풭폐뗄쒣탍뷶뷶뾼쪹웤돉캪믣싊뻶뚨샭싛럇뎣훘튪뗄튻룶랢햹랽쿲ꆣ싇뫪맛닣쏦,떫쫇튪짮죫쇋뷢믣싊뇤뮯뗄믺훆,뮹펦늻맽,헢튻랽쏦쒿잰뮹좱랦돉릦뗄뺭퇩퇐뺿뗄횧독ꆣ룃뷸튻늽죚죫캢맛닣쏦틲쯘뗄럖컶ꆣ샽죧,춶헟(뛾)믣싊뻶뚨뗄캢맛뷡릹럖컶뗄욫뫃ꆢ럧쿕돐쫜쓜솦뗈뚼쫇횱뷓뻶뚨췢믣붻틗헟쏦뛔풭폐닺쫐뎡럖컶램뫪맛뷡릹쒣탍폫쿖쪵춶탐캪뗄훘튪닎쫽,늻뿉뫶쫓ꆣ퓚듋믹뒡짏퓙살듦퓚뗄쎬뛜,튻킩톧헟죏캪,믣싊늨뚯뗄횱뷓풭틲훷럖컶쿖폐믣싊샭싛짦벰뗄뫪맛뺭볃횸뇪죧뫎룄뇤쫐튪늻퓚폚뫪맛닣쏦,뛸쫇좡뻶폚헆컕늻춬탅쾢믲쫇뎡닎폫헟뗄룷쿮뻶닟,뷸뛸펰쿬믣싊뗄뇤뚯ꆣObstf2뛔탅쾢뗄샭뷢늻튻퇹뗄췢믣붻틗헟퓚쳘뚨뗄붻틗쳥eld&R[23]ogoff(2000)퓋폃뻟폐캢맛믹뒡뗄뫪맛뺭쾵쿂뗄쿠뮥늩?[30](Lyons,2001),믹폚듋,쯻쏇듓볃럖컶랽램뛔믣싊컊쳢ퟷ쇋뷏캪퇏쏜뗄샭싛럖컶,췢믣쫐뎡닎폫헟뗄탐캪뫍쫐뎡쳘헷뗈쫐뎡캢맛뷡릹쯻쏇뗄퇐뺿뇭쏷,쫐뎡럖룮ꆢ늻췪좫뺺헹ꆢ릤-볛뷇뛈살퇐뺿뫍뷢쫍믣싊,탎돉쇋믣싊뻶뚨뗄캢맛뷡룱뗄햳탔뗷헻믺훆뫍쫖탸럑뗈틲쯘뚼믡듸살돶뫵죋릹럖컶,훘뗣뾼싇퓚쮽폐탅쾢ꆢ믲틬훊뗄쫐뎡닎폫쏇풤쇏뗄듳뛮붻틗돉놾,헢킩뚼뿉쓜쫇퓬돉풭폐샭헟ꆢ믲늻춬뗄붻틗믺훆뗄쳵볾쿂,믣싊뗄탎돉붫돶쿖48' 1994-2007 China Academic Journal Electronic Publishing House. All rights reserved.
쪲쎴퇹뗄맦싉ꆣ틔쿂붫틔헢죽룶랽쏦캪쿟쯷뛔헢튻폐틢뗘삭뾪싲싴놨볛,틔업벷쓇킩뛔볛룱뇤뮯랴펦랽쿲뗄훷튪퇐뺿돉맻뷸탐뷩짜ꆣ뷏캪쏴룐뗄쇷뚯탔탨쟳붻틗헟ꆣ쫗쿈듓탅쾢헢튻춻웆쿟쯷살뾴,풭폐믣싊샭싛듓쫐뎡닎폫헟뗄틬훊탔헢튻쿟쯷살뾴,ퟮ캪믹죏캪횻폐릫뾪탅쾢닅폫믣싊뇤뮯폐맘,뛸컞쫓쮽폐뒡뗄컊쳢,뻍쫇쫐뎡닎폫헟벰웤풤웚쫇럱뻟폐틬훊탅쾢벰웤벯뫏뗄맽돌뛔믣싊뇤뚯뗄훘튪펰쿬ꆣ캢맛탔ꆣ[33]Frankel&Froot(1990)횸돶,췢믣쫐뎡볈폐뷡릹샭싛퓲쳸맽쇋뒫춳샭싛훐뫪맛뺭볃뇤솿뛔믣싊믹놾틲쯘럖컶헟,튲폐내헕샺쪷쫽뻝살럖컶뗄벼쫵펰쿬뗄럖컶맽돌,죏캪췢믣쫐뎡뗄뚨떥쇷(order럖컶헟틔벰내헕웤쯻튻킩퓫틴탅쾢살풤닢믣싊뗄퓫flow)뫍ퟶ쫐짌놨돶뗄싲싴볛닮헢솽룶맘볼뗄캢맛틴붻틗헟,헢듓Taylor&A[34]llen(1992)뛔싗뛘췢뷰죚횸뇪닅쫇뒫뗝뫍랴펳쮽폐탅쾢뗄뫋탄릤뻟(Ly2믣쫐뎡훷튪붻틗짌뷸탐뗄컊뻭뗷닩뫍Shiller퓚[31]ons,2001)ꆣ뚨떥쇷뗄룅쓮ퟮ퓧평Lyons(1995)1987쓪막퓖랢짺뗄쓇룶탇웚쯹ퟷ뗄훸쏻뗄컊뻭뗷쳡돶,룼쿪쾸뗄싛쫶뿉틔닎볻Lyons(2000)ꆣ뷼킩닩훐뚼틔쟥돾뗘뾴돶ꆣ뛸헢훖틬훊탔쫐뎡뷡릹뗄탎쓪살,맘폚뚨떥쇷뗄럖컶뗃떽쇋뫜뛠훘듳뗄랢쿖,쪹돉,퓚Vitale(2000)뾴살,훷튪쫇틲캪퓚탅쾢늻뛔돆뗃헢랽쏦뗄퇐뺿돉캪믣싊뻶뚨뗄캢맛뷡릹럖컶훐뻟쳵볾쿂냼삨벼쫵럖컶붻틗퓚쓚뗄퓫틴붻틗폐쪱쓜릻폐뷏듳펰쿬뗄늿럖ꆣ퓚Lyons퓧웚뗄쓇욪컄쿗(Ly2믱뗃룼듳뗄쫕틦ꆣ맘폚췢믣쫐뎡풤웚뗄퇐뺿퓲훷튪ons,1995)훐,쯻춨맽퇐뺿랢쿖췢믣쫐뎡붻틗헟웕쫇춨맽횱뷓닢뛈뗄랽램,뇈뷏뻟폐듺뇭탔뗄쫇Ito뇩죏캪뚨떥쇷쫇쓚늿탅쾢뗄훘튪풴좪ꆣE[35]vans(1990),쯻뛔죕놾44볒웳튵뷸탐캪웚솽쓪뗄뗷(2001)뫍Evans&L[32]yons(2002)뗄퇐뺿뷡맻룼쇮닩퇐뺿,웤뷡맻쿔쪾풤웚쫇틬훊뗄ꆣ럇샭탔풤웚놻죋쏇헰뺪,쯻쏇랢쿖믣벯쇋룷룶붻틗헟쮽폐탅쾢뗄횤쪵듦퓚뗄춬쪱,샭탔풤웚볙쮵놻캢맛뷡릹샭싛뻜뚨떥쇷폫뛔믣싊늨뚯벸뫵쎻폐뷢쫍솦뛈뗄뫪맛뺭볃뻸쇋ꆣ뫜뛠뺭볃톧볒럖컶죏캪,틬훊탔풤웚쪹뗃폐횸뇪쿠뇈,쓜릻뫜뫃뗘쮵쏷맺볊뷰죚쫐뎡짏훷튪췢킧쫐뎡볙쮵늻쓜돉솢,튲쫇풭폐믣싊샭싛컞램뫜뫃믣뗄ퟟ쫆,웤훐,Evans(2001)헢욪컄쿗훐뗄튻룶쫽뗘뷢쫍쿖쪵믣싊늨뚯뗄튻룶훘튪풭틲(Goodwart,ퟖ쇮죋펡쿳짮뿌,쯻뗄퇐뺿뗃돶벴쪹뷶샻폃뷼쓪췢1988;Frankel&Froot,1990)ꆣ퓚쫐뎡닎폫헟벰웤믣붻틗훐뷏킡늿럖뗄뚨떥쇷쫽뻝,튲뿉틔뷢쫍40ꆫ풤웚뗄틬훊탔뗄뾼싇쿂,튻킩뺭볃톧볒쳡돶폃퓫틴70%뗄믣싊늨뚯ꆣ퓚춬튻욪컄쿗훐,Evans뮹틔잿붻틗헟쒣탍살듺쳦폐킧쫐뎡볙쮵ꆣ폐솦뗄횤뻝뇭쏷,뫪맛뺭볃쫽뻝릫룦뫍웤쯻튻킩뿉퓙듓췢믣쫐뎡붻틗쾵춳랽쏦뗄퇐뺿살뾴,Lyons럖뇦뗄뫪맛뺭볃쫽뻝뗄뇤뮯퓚뾼싇뚨떥쇷쫽뻝뫳뛔(2001)횸돶,췢믣쫐뎡쫇튻룶엓듳뗄뛾닣뷡릹뗄럖믣싊늨뚯뗄횱뷓펰쿬늻듳ꆣ떫쫇,틔짏헢킩랢쿖뫍즢쫐뎡(틸탐볤뗄붻틗쫐뎡뫍틸탐폫뿍뮧볤뗄붻틗횤뻝늢늻틢캶ퟅ뚨떥쇷놾짭쓜릻틽웰믣싊뗄뇤뮯뫍쫐뎡),췢믣쫐뎡폐킧탔볬퇩뗄쪧냜,웤풭틲뫍췢믣뫪맛뺭볃뇤솿뛔믣싊뇤뚯쎻폐펰쿬,튻훖듺뇭탔뗄붻틗쳥쾵뗄쳘쫢뷡릹폐쏜쟐맘쾵ꆣ돽쇋뛾닣뷡릹뗄뷢쫍죏캪,뫪맛뺭볃뇤솿쓜릻뷢쫍튻늿럖믣싊뗄뇤쳘헷틔췢,췢믣쫐뎡뮹폐웤쯻튻킩쳘헷,죧헢튻쫐뎡뚯,횮쯹틔뚨떥쇷뻟폐뫜잿뗄뷢쫍쓜솦뛸뫪맛뺭볃뗄뻞듳붻틗솿쫇춨맽뛠룶ퟶ쫐짌믺훆살췪돉뗄;붻쫽뻝뗄뇤뮯퓚뾼싇뚨떥쇷쫽뻝뫳뛔믣싊뇤뚯컞뷢쫍틗헟돽쇋톡퓱틸탐볤뗄횱뷓붻틗탎쪽췢,뮹뿉틔톡쓜솦,쫇틲캪냼삨뫪맛뺭볃뇤솿퓚쓚뗄훚뛠틲쯘뛔퓱샻폃뺭볍죋훐뷩뗄볤뷓붻틗;헢튻쫐뎡쎻폐뛔붻믣싊뗄펰쿬ퟮ훕춨맽죋쏇뛔믣싊탨쟳뗄탄샭틢풸뻸틗볛룱뫍붻틗솿뗈탅쾢쯦쪱엻슶뗄튪쟳,틲듋춸쏷듳늿럖랴펳퓚뚨떥쇷짏,뚨떥쇷횻쫇튻룶뿉틔틗폚뛈쏷쿔뗍폚웤쯻뗄뷰죚쫐뎡뗈뗈ꆣ퓚헢퇹뗄쫐뎡맛닢뗄퓘쳥ꆣ쒿잰,맘폚뚨떥쇷뗄럖컶풽살풽틽웰짏,닎폫헟뗄붻틗뚯믺룷늻쿠춬,뛸쟒,퓚틸탐볤붻죋쏇뗄훘쫓,헢랽쏦뗄퇐뺿헽퓚늻뛏뗄랢햹횮훐ꆣ틗쫐뎡훐웰ퟅퟶ쫐짌횰쓜뗄룷룶틸탐믱좡탅쾢뗄쟾캢맛뷡릹샭싛맘힢뗄쇭튻룶뒫뗝뫍랴펳쮽폐탅쾢뗄뗀튲늻튻퇹,헢뻍뇘좻닺짺탅쾢늻뛔돆뛔믣싊펰쿬횸뇪쫇돶ퟔퟶ쫐짌뗄싲싴볛닮ꆣ듳솿헢랽쏦뗄퇐뺿뗄컊쳢ꆣ퓚퓧웚뗄췢믣쫐뎡캢맛뷡릹샭싛훐,폐탭뇭쏷,췢믣쫐뎡싲싴볛닮폫믣싊늨뚯탔돉횱뷓뇈샽뛠뺭퇩횤뻝뇭쏷,쫐뎡벯훐돌뛈뗄닮틬뿉쓜뛔뷢쫍맘쾵,뛸Perraudin&Vitale(1996)뗄퇐뺿퓲랢쿖,ퟶ쫐뎡뇭쿖뗄닮틬럇뎣훘튪ꆣFlood(1994)퓸퓚튻룶쫐짌캪쇋믱뗃럖즢퓚룷룶틸탐쫖훐뗄쮽폐탅쾢,믡냼삨ퟶ쫐짌ꆢ뺭볍죋뫍맋뿍뗄쫐뎡뷡릹쿂ퟷ쒣쓢쫔49' 1994-2007 China Academic Journal Electronic Publishing House. All rights reserved.
퇩살뾼달쏀맺췢믣쫐뎡튻룶붻틗죕쓚뗄퓋탐킧싊,퇐뺿쮮욽ꆣ틔쿂뻍붫쯻쏇뗄퇐뺿돉맻ퟷ튻룶볲떥뗄쯻뗄뷡싛죏캪벯훐뮯쫇듯떽쫐뎡퓋탐킧싊뗄맘볼틲뷩짜ꆣ쯘ꆣPerraudin&Vitale(1996)헫뛔췢믣쫐뎡쫇튻룶DeGrauwe뗈쫗쿈룸돶쇋튻룶믹놾뗄믣싊뻶뚨럖즢뗄붻틗짌쫐뎡헢튻쳘헷,붨솢쇋튻룶샭싛뿲볜뗄믬쒣탍,쯻쏇볙뚨쫐뎡닎폫헟쫇틬훊뗄,늢볲뮯늢쳖싛쇋췢믣쫐뎡볛룱탅쾢뒫뗝믺훆벰킧싊ꆣLy2뗄럖캪춼뇭럖컶헟뫍믹놾틲쯘럖컶헟솽샠,뢳폨헢ons(1991)튲뾼달쇋쫐뎡뗄믺훆쳘헷뛔쫐뎡탅쾢뒫솽샠쫐뎡닎폫헟쪹폃늻춬뗄폐쿞탅쾢벯뫏ꆣ춨맽쒣뗝뗄펰쿬ꆣ탍,DeGrauwe뗈횤쏷쇋퓚틬훊풤웚뗄볙뚨쿂,췢믣쪵볊짏,틔짏ퟷ캪쿟쯷뗄탅쾢ꆢ쫐뎡닎폫헟뗄틬쫐뎡짏춼뇭럖컶헟뫍믹놾틲쯘럖컶헟뗄쿠뮥ퟷ폃쪹훊탔뫍붻틗쾵춳헢죽룶랽쏦쫇쏜쟐쿠맘뫍뮥쿠펰쿬뗃믣싊폐뿉쓜돊쿖믬뗄퓋뚯ힴ첬,듓뛸캪붫쿖듺뗄ꆣ듓쒳훖돌뛈짏살쮵,쎻폐럖즢쫐뎡뗄훆풼,뻍컞믬샭싛펦폃폚믣싊뗄럖컶뾪웴쇋샭싛뗄햢쏅ꆣ좻램돤럖쳥쿖쮽폐탅쾢뗄볛횵,퓫틴붻틗헟튲뻍늻뿉뛸,헢튻믹놾쒣탍쎻폐쿪쾸쮵쏷뻶뚨믣싊뗄믹놾뺭쓜듓훐쒱좡샻죳ꆣ랴맽살,퓫틴붻틗뗄탐캪폖퓶볓볃뇤솿뗄뷡릹,횻쫇볲떥뗄냑헢튻뷡릹떱ퟷ쫇췢짺쇋럖즢쫐뎡뗄탅쾢늻뛔돆돌뛈,쪹쮽폐탅쾢뛔볛룱뗄,틲뛸룮쇑쇋믣싊폫믹놾뺭볃뇤솿횮볤쏷쿔듦퓚뗄펰쿬룼캪쿔훸ꆣ뗄쿠뮥솪쾵ꆣ캪쇋뿋럾헢튻좱쿝,DeGrauwe뗈뷸뷼킩쓪살,췢믣쫐뎡캢맛뷡릹럖컶퓚뷢쫍믣싊튻늽뛔헢튻믹놾뗄믣싊믬쒣탍뷸탐쇋삩햹,폖쳡뇤뚯뗄믺샭랽쏦좡뗃쇋쿠떱뗄돉뻍,뛔쿖쪵뗄믣싊돶쇋튻룶믣싊뻶뚨뗄믬믵뇒쒣탍ꆣ삩햹뫳뗄쒣탍퓋뚯뫍뫜뛠뫪맛뷡릹믣싊샭싛컞램뷢쫍뗄믣싊쿖쿳늻뷶횤쏷쇋믣싊뗄퓋뚯쓜릻돊쿖돶믬ힴ첬,뛸쟒뚼쓜릻쳡릩뷏뫃뗄뷢쫍,늢쟒퓚뺭퇩럖컶짏튲좡뗃쯼쯹쏨쫶뗄믣싊퓋뚯뮹뇭쿖돶뫍쪵볊믣싊퓋뚯쿠춬쇋쇮죋싺틢뗄뷡맻,떫쫇,믣싊뻶뚨뗄캢맛뷡릹럖컶뗄쳘헷ꆣ튲듦퓚ퟅ뫜뛠뻖쿞탔폐듽뿋럾,튪붨솢튻쳗춳튻뗄DeGrauwe뗈쯤좻듓샭싛짏룸돶쇋튻룶쓜릻닺샭싛럖컶쳥쾵뮹폐뫜뎤뗄슷튪ퟟꆣ짺믬뗄믣싊쒣탍,좻뫳,죧맻퓚뿉닢뗄쪵볊믣싊쫽(죽)믣싊뻶뚨뗄믬럖컶랽램뻝훐맛달늻떽믬듦퓚뗄쫂쪵,퓙췪쏀뗄쒣탍튲쓑ퟔ좻뿆톧훐뗄믬샭싛뇭쏷,퓋뚯뗄좷뚨탔늢쏢폐뿕훐슥룳횮쿓ꆣ틲뛸,샻폃믬랽램럖컶믣싊늻뗈볛폚쯼뗄뿉풤닢탔,좷뚨탔뗄퓋뚯쓜릻닺짺돶탐캪뗄쇭튻룶퇐뺿훘뗣뻍쫇볬퇩퓚쪵볊뗄믣싊쫽뻝늻뿉풤닢뗄쎲쯆쯦믺뗄탐캪ꆣ튻킩톧헟쫜듋웴랢,훐쫇럱헦뗄듦퓚믬퓋뚯ힴ첬ꆣ헢튻랽쏦뗄쪵횤퇐죏캪믣싊뇤뮯튲쫇튻룶믬맽돌,쯻쏇럅웺쇋뒫춳뺿뫜뛠,떫쫇ퟜ뗄살뾴,볈폐뿏뚨뗄,튲폐럱뚨뗄,늢믣싊샭싛샭탔풤웚뗄볙짨잰쳡,듺횮쫐뎡닎폫헟틬쎻폐튻룶쏷좷뗄뷡싛ꆣ뛔폚헢튻뻖쏦,횧돖믣싊믬훊탔뗄볙뚨,늢쫔춼춨맽믬샭싛살쒣쓢믣싊뗄퓋샭싛뗄톧헟쏇죏캪헢폐뿉쓜쫇틲캪쯹쪹폃뗄퇹놾뚯,듓뛸뾪뇙쇋믣싊뻶뚨뗄믬럖컶랽램ꆣ뛔믣싊쫽뻝뗄컳닮,믲헟쫇쫜퇹놾쫽솿뗄펰쿬,튲뿉쓜쫇평탐캪뗄믬퇐뺿폐솽룶믹놾뗄컊쳢:튻쫇쓜럱룸돶폚폐킩퓫틴뗄헚뇎뛸퓬돉볬닢믬뗄삧쓑,짵훁쫇튻룶뫏샭뗄뻟폐믬쳘헷뗄믣싊뻶뚨쒣탍;뛾쫇퓚쪵횤볬퇩쯹쪹폃뗄럖컶랽램놾짭듦퓚뗄컊쳢ꆣ틲쪵볊뗄믣싊쪱볤탲쇐훐쓜럱헒떽믬듦퓚뗄횤뻝ꆣ듋,헢랽쏦뗄퇐뺿죔퓚늻뛏뗄랢햹훐ꆣ잰튻룶컊쳢쫇샭싛탔뗄,뫳튻룶컊쳢쫇쪵횤탔뗄ꆣ믣싊뻶뚨뗄믬럖컶랽램룄뇤쇋죋쏇맘폚믣싊ퟮ퓧붫믬샭싛펦폃폚믣싊탐캪퇐뺿뗄쫇뇈샻탐캪뗄뒫춳맛쓮,쯼캪뫜뛠풭폐샭싛컞램뷢쫍뗄믣쪱뺭볃톧볒DeGrauwe뫍Dewachter(1992,싊쿖쿳쳡릩쇋튻훖뫏샭뗄뷢쫍ꆣ샽죧,믬쾵춳쯹[36][37]1993),쯻쏇뾪뒴탔뗘쳡돶쇋튻룶믣싊뻶뚨뗄뻟폐뗄뛔돵쪼쳵볾뗄쏴룐탔쳘헷,뿉폃살쮵쏷쿖쪵믬믵뇒쒣탍ꆣ1993쓪,헢솽캻믣싊믬샭싛뗄뒴훐풤닢믣싊뗄삧쓑;믬쾵춳뗄쓚퓚쯦믺탔늨뚯,뿉쪼죋폖뫍Embrechts뫏ퟷ(DeGrauwe,Dewachter&폃살닻쫍믣싊뻶뚨뗄탂컅쒣탍컞램뷢쫍퓚쎻폐탂컅Em[38]brechts,1993),릲춬돶냦쇋헢튻랽쿲뗄뾹뚦랢짺쪱믣싊뗄쏷쿔늨뚯헢튻삧믳ꆣ쿖쪵뺭볃훐,췢횮ퟷꆶ믣싊샭싛:췢믣쫐뎡뗄믬쒣탍ꆷꆣ듋쫩뛔짏믣쫐뎡믣싊뇤뚯뗄룟욵쳘헷쿔쪾쇋믣싊뗄럇쿟탔뇤쫶쳡떽뗄솽룶믹놾컊쳢뷸탐쇋뷏캪쾵춳뫍좫쏦뗘싛뮯풽살풽쏷쿔,뛸믬쒣탍춨맽붨솢럇쿟탔랽돌ퟩ쫶,냑믣싊뻶뚨뗄믬럖컶랽램쳡짽떽튻룶뷏룟뗄살쏨쫶믣싊뇤뚯뿉쓜튲쫇뛔쿖쪵뺭볃뢴퓓탔뗄튻훖50' 1994-2007 China Academic Journal Electronic Publishing House. All rights reserved.
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Keywords:Malmquistindex;Productionefficiency;DEAmodelNewDevelopmentsontheTheoryofExchangeRateDetermination:ASurveyCHENYu2lu,HOUJie(SchoolofFinance,RenminUniversityofChina,Beijing100872,China)Abstract:,,thereappearmanynewpapersthatcomplement,:Theoryofexchangeratedetermination;Newopeneconomymacroeconomics;Foreignexchangemarketmicrostructure;ChaotictheoryMarginalDiminishingonPoverty2ReductionEffectsofGovernmentSpendinginRuralChinaGUOH12ong2bao,QIUWei2jie(,XiamenUniversity,Xiamen361005,China;&Management,NanjingUniversityofAeronauticsandAstronautics,Nanjing10016,China)Abstract:Accompanyingthesuccessofthereforminruralarea,,:Ruralarea;Governmentspending;PovertyreductionForeignInvestmentEntryandMarketStructureunderOpeningCondition:AnEmpiricalStudyforChinaAutomobileIndustryGUOHai2tao(SchoolofEconomics,PekingUniversity,Beijing100871,China)Abstract:ForeigninvestmententryinChinaautomobileindustryenhancesthecompetition,decentralizesthemarket,promotesthemarketscaleandproductdifferentiation,,technology,:Foreigninvestmententry;Marketconcentration;Scaleofeconomies;BarrierstoentryResearchonCorrelationandContributionbetweenInternationalTradeandUrbanizationWANGJia2ting(ResearchCenterofChinaUrbanandRegionalEconomy,NankaiUniversity,Tianjin300071,China)Abstract:Bothinternationaltradeandurbanizationconstituteresourceallocationbyspaceandsector,' 1994-2007 China Academic Journal Electronic Publishing House. All rights reserved.
