죋솦놾퓚뷰죚볓쯙웷훐뗄ퟷ폃 The Role of Human Capital in The Financial Accelerator 쯹캽뷰죚볓쯙웷샭싛ꎬ튻냣횸뗄쫇튻쾵쇐뺭볃훐캢킡뗄룉죅쫇죧뫎춨맽튻킩뺭볃틲쯘뗄ퟷ폃늻뛏뗄럅듳ꎬ듓뛸닺짺뛔뺭볃뗄뷏듳뗄늨뚯뗄ꆣ뫜뛠뗄컄헂틑뛔헢튻샭싛ퟷ돶룷훖룷퇹뗄첽쳖ꎬ춨맽늻춬뗄뺭볃톧쒣탍살럖컶튻킩뷰죚믮뚯훐뗄룷룶틲쯘쫇죧뫎퓚뺭볃훐닺짺늨뚯늢죧뫎붫횮럅듳ꎬ듓뛸볓쯙믲퇓뮺뺭볃뗄랢햹ꆣퟮ뻟듺뇭탔뗄샭싛쫇듓뷨듻놾쫐뎡훐뗄볠맜돉놾돶랢ꎬ살첽쳖뷨뿮죋ꎨ튻냣캪웳튵볒 Entrepreneurꎩ뗄닺뢺햮ힴ뿶퓚늨뚯럅듳훐뗄훘튪ퟷ폃ꆣ헢튻샭싛훷튪춨맽뾼달뷨뿮죋ꎨBorrower튲벴웳튵볒Entrepreneurꎩ폫듻뿮죋ꎨLenderꎩ퓚탅쾢늻뛔돆뗄쟩탎쿂ꎬ캪놣횤웳튵볒쓜헦쪵뗄랴펳짺닺뗄쟩뿶ꎬ듻뿮죋뇘탫튪뛔횮뷸탐볠맜ꎬ듓뛸듸살쇋볠맜뗄돉놾ꎨAgent Costꎩꆣ뛸볠맜돉놾뗄듦퓚쪹뗃쎻폐뗖톺뗄췢늿죚ꎨExternal fundsꎩ뗄돉놾풶풶룟폚쓚늿죚ꎨInternal fundsꎩꋙ뗄돉놾ꆣ틲뛸퓚헢튻놳뺰쿂ꎬ웳튵볒ퟔ짭뗄닺뢺햮쟩뿶튲벴웤ퟔ폐닺ힴ뿶뇣돉캪웤뷸탐탅듻믮뚯뗄튻룶맘볼틲쯘ꆣퟜ쳥짏뛸퇔ꎬ웳튵볒ퟔ폐닺뗄뇤뮯믡쪹뗃볠맜돉놾쿠펦뗄랢짺뇤뮯ꎬ듓뛸떼훂쇋닺돶뗄뇤뮯ꆣ틲듋ꎬ튻킩뺭볃훐뗄돥믷뇣뿉틔춨맽룄뇤웳튵볒뗄닺뢺햮ힴ뿶살틽웰뺭볃뗄뇤뮯ꎬ뛸뺭볃뗄뇤뮯폖랴맽살믡펰쿬웳튵뗄닺뢺햮ꎬ헢퇹ퟮ훕뺭볃뗄쇷뚯뻍믡놻럅듳ꎬ틲뛸돉캪튻훖뷰죚볓쯙뗄믺훆ꆣ 헢튻룶볲떥뗄믺훆퓸튻뛈뫜뫃뗄뷢쫍쇋쏀맺뺭볃듳쿴쳵훐뷰죚쫐뎡뫍헦쪵뺭볃뇤솿뗄튻틽웰쿠뮥ퟷ폃맘쾵ꎬ튲퓚튻뚨돌뛈짏뷢쫍쇋쏀맺햽뫳뗄뺭볃훜웚뗄쟩뿶ꎬ틲뛸퓚샭싛짏폐ퟅ뷏캪맣랺뗄펰쿬ꆣ뫜뛠뺭볃톧볒뛔횮뷸탐쇋삩햹ꎬ탞헽뫍늹돤ꆣ뇈죧Frideric Mishkin(1978)틔벰Benanke(1983)쳖싛쇋웳튵볒ꎨ벴듻뿮죋ꎩ뗄뎥햮쓜솦뗄뇤죵볓뻧쇋듳쿴쳵훐뺭볃뗄쮥실ꎬ뛸Eckstein틔벰Allen Sinaiꎨ1986ꎩ퓲냑쯻쏇뗄퇐뺿랢햹캪뚯첬뗄쒣탍ꎻ듋췢ꎬFazzari Hubbarb틔벰Peterson(1988)퓚듋믹뒡짏뷸튻늽붫횮탞헽캪뷰죚춶훐뗄볓쯙믺훆ꎬ뛸Farmer(1985)ꎬGreenwald뫍Stiglitz(1986)ꎬWilliamsonꎨ1987ꎩꎬBernanke뫍Gertlerꎨ1989ꎩꎬCalomiris뫍Hubbarb(1990)퓚룼뷸튻늽틔쏀ꆢ얷뗄뺭볃쫽뻝뷸탐쇋쪵횤뗄퇐뺿ꆣ듋췢ꎬTownsend(1982)ꆢ(1988)ꎬStiglitz뫍Weiss(1983)ꎬGreen(1987)ꎬWebb(1988)틔벰Hart뫍Moore(1989)냑헢튻믺훆랢햹캪뛠웚뮯ꎬ쪹쯼룼쇭폐솦뗄뷢쫍쇋뷰죚볓쯙퓚뺭볃늨뚯훐뗄럅듳ퟷ폃ꆣ ꋙ 헢쫇평폚퓚샻폃쓚늿죚쪱ꎬ늻믡닺짺볠맜뗄컊쳢ꆣ 1
ꋚ놾컄훷튪쫇룹뻝Bernanke뫍Gertlerꎨ1989ꎩ뗄믹놾쒣탍돶랢ꎬ틔듋살뾼달볠맜돉놾퓚늨뚯럅듳훐뗄ퟷ폃ꆣ떫폫횮늻춬뗄쫇ꎬ놾컄돽쇋뾼달웳튵볒ꎨ벴듻뿮죋ꎩퟔ짭뗄뺻닺ꎨNet Worthꎩ횮췢ꎬ룼훷튪뗄쫇뾼달쇋웳튵볒죋솦놾뗄춶죫뗄ퟷ폃ꆣ춬쪱ꎬ닎뾼쇋Gertler(1991)뗄뛠웚삩햹뗄쒣탍ꆣGertler퓚헢튻쒣탍훐틽죫쇋캴살쫕죫쳹쿖뷸탐뗖톺뗄룅쓮ꎬ쪹뗃볠맜돉놾늻뷶폫듻뿮죋뗄뷰죚뺻닺폐맘ꎬ뛸쟒뮹폫듻뿮죋쯹뷸탐뗄쿮쒿뗄쿖뷰쇷뗄쿖횵폐맘ꆣ좻뛸ꎬ헢솽욪컄헂뚼쎻폐짮죫뗄뾼달웳튵볒ퟔ짭뗄죋솦놾퓚볠맜돉놾훐뗄ퟷ폃ꆣ퓚쪵볊훐ꎬ뫜쿔좻ꎬ떱죋솦놾뗄춶죫풽듳쪱ꎬ웤짺닺뫍뺭펪뗄킧싊튲뻍풽룟ꎬ틲뛸웤쯹뷸탐듻뿮뗄ꆰ죚쓜솦ꆱ튲뻍풽잿ꎬ튲벴뇭쏷웤탅뛈룼룟ꎬ볠맜뗄돉놾튲뻍믡룼뗍ꆣ춬쪱ꎬ웤쯹뷸탐뗄쿮쒿뗄쳹쿖볛횵튲믡쯦ퟅ죋솦놾뗄춶죫뛸퓶볓ꆣ뷸튻늽뗄럖컶뿉틔횪뗀ꎬퟔ폐놾뗄룄짆퓚풭살뗄쒣탍훐횻쫇춨맽룄뇤쇋웳튵볒뗄탅돌뛈듓뛸쓜붵뗍볠맜뗄룅싊믲춨맽쳡룟죚뗄쮮욽살붵뗍볠맜돉놾ꎬ떫쫇죋솦놾뗄춶죫늻뷶뿉틔룄뇤웳튵볒뗄탅뛈ꎬ늢쟒뿉틔뷸튻늽룄뇤웤짺닺뗄킧싊ꎬ듓뛸뿉닺짺쮫훘뗄럅듳ퟷ폃ꆣ떱좻ꎬ헢훖쮫훘뗄럅듳ퟷ폃쫇탫폐튻뚨뗄쳵볾뗄ꎬ퓚놾컄뗄쒣탍럖컶훐ꎬ붫믡뷸튻늽짮죫쳖싛헢킩쳵볾ꆣ 뛔폚죋솦놾퓚뺭볃퓶뎤훐뗄ퟷ폃ꎬ튲폐탭뛠뗄뺭볃톧볒뛔횮뷸탐맽싛쫶ꎬ죧Millton Friedman(1945)ꆢ(1957)틔벰Jacob Mincer(1958)(1962)뻍쿈쟽탔뗄쳖싛맽죋솦놾죧뷌폽퓚뺭볃훐뗄훘튪ퟷ폃ꎬ냑죋솦놾뗄춶폫뺭볃훐뗄탭뛠쪵볊컊쳢쿠솪쾵웰살ꆣ뛸Schultx(1971)룼쫇쾵춳뗄퇐뺿쇋죋솦놾춶뛔폚뺭볃퓶뎤뗄ퟷ폃ꆣGary SꆤBecker(1964)(1974)뛔죋솦놾뗄샭싛뫍쪵볊뺭퇩뗄퇐뺿쪹쯻펮뗃쇋1992쓪뗄억놴뛻뺭볃톧붱ꆣ듋췢ꎬBaumol(1970)튲뛔죋솦풴컊쳢퓚랢햹훐뗄릱쿗ퟷ돶쇋짮죫뗄뾼달ꆣ뛸Ryuzo Sato뫍Takashi Negishi(1989)퓲듓죕놾뗄뺭볃랢햹죫쫖ꎬ첽쳖쇋죋솦놾뗄랢햹뛔햽뫳죕놾뺭볃쳚량뗄릱쿗ퟷ폃ꆣ좻뛸ꎬ헢킩럇뎣폐볛횵뗄릱쿗룼뛠뗄쫇듓뺭볃퓶뎤믲뺭볃뗄컈뚨랽쏦뛔죋솦놾컊쳢뷸탐럖컶뫍첽쳖ꎬ뛸뫜짙폐뾼싇죋솦놾퓚뷰죚볓쯙웷훐뗄ퟷ폃ꆣ 놾컄붫듓Bernanke뫍Gertler뗄믹놾쒣탍돶랢ꎬퟷ쿠펦뗄튻킩탞헽ꎬ틽죫쇋죋솦놾뗄볠맜돉놾훐뗄ퟷ폃ꎬ좻뫳컄헂뷸튻늽붫횮뛠웚뮯ꎬ첽쳖죋솦놾뗄캴살쫕죫뗄뗖톺컊쳢벰웤풼쫸쳵볾ꎬ틔듋살뾼달죋솦놾퓚뷰죚볓쯙돉웷훐뗄ퟷ폃ꆣ 1ꎮ 믹놾쒣탍 놾컄뗄돶랢뗣쫇Bernanke폫Gertler뗄믹놾쒣탍ꎬ헢튻쒣탍틔ꆰ헦쪵뺭볃훜웚쒣탍ꆱ캪믹뒡ꎬ늢닎뾼쇋Diamond(1965)뗄ꏏꏇ쒣탍ꎨ뗾듺쒣탍ꎩꆣ 폫룃쒣탍튻퇹ꎬ놾컄볙짨폐ꎱꆢꎲ솽웚ꎬ짧믡짏뗄죋뿉럖캪솽샠ꎺ튲벴웳튵 ꋚ 닎뾼Bernanke & Gertler, Agency Costs, Net Worth, and Business Fluctuation, 2
볒ꎨEntrpreneur튲벴뷨뿮죋Borrowerꎩ틔벰듻뿮죋(Lender)ꆣ웳튵볒듓듻뿮죋뒦좡뗃뷰ꎬ좻뫳붫웤춶죫떽웤쯹펵폐뗄짺닺벼쫵훐뷸탐짺닺ꆣ뛸듻뿮죋퓲붫횻쫇뷸탐뒢탮늢뗃떽볓놨ꆣ짧믡짏죎튻룶죋ꎬ퓚늻쓜쿪쾸횪뗀웤뻟쳥뗄짭럝쪱ꎬ폐η뗄뿉쓜쫇웳튵볒ꎬ뛸폐1-η뗄뿉쓜쫇듻뿮죋ꆣ헢튻맽돌튲뿉틔폃쿂춼살뇭쪾ꎺ 뒢탮 춶 춶죫 틸탐믲맺햮 Å 듻뿮죋 Æ 뷨듻쫐뎡 Æ 웳튵볒 Bank or Bond Æ Lender Å Loan Market Å Entrepreneur r 믘놨ꇝr 볠맜돉놾 닺돶 퓚헢튻맽돌훐ꎬ듻뿮죋폐솽쳵춾뺶뷸탐뒢탮ꆣ튻쳵쫇냑횮듦죫틸탐믲릺싲맺햮ꎬ쓇쎴퓚2웚뗄쪱뫲뻍믡닺짺r뗄믘놨ꎬ헢샯뗄r쫇췢짺룸뚨뗄ꆣ뛸쇭튻쳵춾뺶퓲쫇냑뷰춶폚웳튵볒죃쯻뷸탐짺닺ꎬ헢쪱뒢탮뇤캪놾욷ꎬ퓚1웚뗄믘놨퓲튪쫓짺닺뗄닺돶쟩뿶뛸뚨ꎬ떫튻냣웤쯹쓜뗃떽뗄믘놨쮮욽늻펦뗍폚r. 뛸웳튵볒퓲뷸탐뻟쳥뗄춶뫍짺닺ꆣ쎿튻룶웳튵볒뚼펵폐튻룶짺닺뗄쿮쒿ꎬ헢튻쿮쒿냼삨솽룶맽돌ꎬ튲벴춶뫍짺닺ꆣ뛸폫Bernanke뫍Gertler뗄쒣탍늻춬뗄쫇ꎬ헢샯볙짨쯹폐뗄춶맽돌뚼쫇튻퇹뗄ꎬ춶죫폫닺돶뇈캪1:1ꎬ튲벴뛠짙뗄놾뗄춶죫뇣탎십뛠짙뗄놾욷ꎨ튲뻍쫇뎧랿ꆢ짨놸뗈뗈ꎩꎬ헢튻맽돌늻탨튪뻟쳥뗄벼쫵ꎬ늢늻탨튪뷸탐볠맜ꆣ떫튻떩춶뇤돉쇋놾욷틔뫳ꎬ쯼뇣믡퓚룃쿮쒿뷡쫸쪱췪좫뇡횵ꎬ폠뛮캪쇣ꆣ 퓚짺닺맽돌훐ꎬ웤닺돶쫜떽짺닺돥믷뗄펰쿬ꆣ춬쪱ꎬ뮹쫜웳튵볒뻟쳥뗄짺닺몯쫽뗄훆풼ꆣ헢샯볙짨쯹폐뗄웳튵볒뗄짺닺몯쫽뚼쫇컞닮뇰뗄ꎬ틲뛸뿉틔폃튻룶뗤탍룶튵볒뗄짺닺몯쫽살ퟷ캪듺뇭웳튵볒뗄짺닺몯쫽ꎺ e y=θf (x, h) ; ꎨ1ꎩ t tt Kꇝx ; ꎨ2ꎩ ttex캪놾욷뗄샻폃ꎬ뛸h퓲캪웳튵볒ퟔ짭죋솦놾뗄춶죫ꆣ퓚헢샯ꎬ냑죋솦tte놾틽죫쇋웳튵볒뗄짺닺몯쫽훐ꎬ떫캪쇋룼뻟튻냣탔ꎬ헢샯늻룸돶f (x, h)tt 뗄뻟쳥탎쪽ꆣθ 쫇벼쫵뗄돥믷ꎬK쫇쯹폐뗄놾욷ꎬKꇝx뇭쪾쯹쪹폃뗄놾욷ttt늻쓜뎬맽ퟜ뗄놾욷뗄쫽쒿ꆣ 22 ∂f∂f∂f∂f헢샯 ꎬ뛸벼쫵뗄돥믷θ 쫇ꎨ뛀솢>0;>0,≤0,≤0e2e2∂x∂h∂x∂(h)tttt춬럖늼ꎩ뗄ꎬ쯼뗄럖늼죧쿂ꎺ gθ = θ +ꚤꎬ룅싊캪π2 θˆ = { ꎨ3ꎩ bθ = θ ꎬ룅싊캪π1=1-π2 뛸쟒웤럖늼뗄룅싊뛔쯹폐뗄웳튵볒뛸퇔뚼쫇튻퇹뗄ꎬ떫퓚짺닺맽돌훐횻폐웳gb튵볒놾짭닅쓜횪뗀쪵볊짏쫇랢짺쇋θ뗄벼쫵돥믷뮹쫇θ 뗄벼쫵돥믷ꎬ뛸튻냣듻뿮죋퓲뇘탫튪뷸탐튻뚨뗄볠맜닅쓜횪쾤쪵볊랢짺쇋쪲쎴퇹뗄벼쫵ꆣ헢뻍닺짺쇋탅 3
쾢늻뛔돆뗄컊쳢ꆣ헢튻볠맜쫇탨튪뮨럑돉놾뗄ꎬ뛔쎿튻쿮쒿뗄볠맜뚼탨뮨럑γ떥풪뗄놾욷ꎬ떫춨맽볠맜ꎬ춶헟뿉틔췪좫뗘쇋뷢짺닺뗄뻟쳥쟩뿶ꎬ헢쪱퓚웳튵볒폫듻뿮죋횮볤뻍늻퓙듦퓚늻뛔돆뗄탅쾢ꆣ 퓚헢훖쟩뿶쿂ꎬ죧맻웳튵볒뗍놨쇋쯻뗄닺돶ꎨ냑뫃뗄벼쫵ힴ첬쮵돉쫇늻뫃뗄벼쫵ힴ첬ꎩꎬ뛸폖잡뫃쎻폐놻볠맜ꎬ퓲뻍뿉틔믱뗃튻늿쯻뛮췢뗄쫕죫ꎨ벴쎻폐짏놨뗄쓇튻늿럖ꎩꆣ춬쪱ꎬ퓚헢샯뮹볙짨튻냣듻뿮헟퓚쎻폐뷸탐볠맜쪱쫇늻뿉쓜횪뗀웳튵볒짺닺뗄뻟쳥쟩뿶뗄ꆣ떫평폚볠맜뗄돉놾뇈뷏듳ꎬ틲뛸볠맜튲늻뿉쓜뛔쯹폐웳튵볒뗄짺닺쿮쒿뚼뷸탐ꎬ뛸횻쓜쫇웤훐튻늿럖쿮쒿뷸탐볠맜ꆣ헢퇹뻍뿉틔볙짨볠맜쫇쯦믺뷸탐뗄ꆣ좻뛸ꎬ퓚웳튵볒믣놨뗄닺돶쮮욽쫇뫃뗄ힴ첬뗄쪱뫲ꎬ퓲웳튵볒뗄쪵볊닺돶뻍뇘좻쫇뫃뗄ꎬ맊헢쪱쎻폐볠맜뗄뇘튪ꆣ횻폐퓚웳튵볒짏놨뗄뷡맻쫇늻뫃뗄ힴ첬뗄쪱뫲ꎬ닅폐웳튵볒믑놨뗄뿉쓜ꆣ헢쪱볙짨쎿튻룶쿮쒿죴웤짏놨뗄쫇늻뫃뗄ힴ첬쪱ꎬ웤쏦쇙뗄볠맜뗄뿉쓜탔캪pꆣ 춬쪱ꎬ듻뿮헟뷸탐춶뗄믺믡돉놾캪rꎨ죧잰쏦춼쪾ꎩꎬ놾욷뗄볛룱ꎨ폃헦쪵짌욷살뇭쪾ꎩ캪qꆣ짨퓚뫃뗄벼쫵ힴ첬쿂ꎬ웳튵볒쓜믱뗃뗄놨돪캪cꎬ뛸퓚늻2뫃뗄벼쫵ힴ첬쿂쯹쓜믱뗃뗄놨돪퓲캪cꎬ퓲웳튵볒뗄웚췻쯹뗃뻍쫇ꎺ 1 V = πc+ π c ꎨ4ꎩ 11 22틲뛸ꎬ웳튵볒뗄컊쳢뻍쫇죧뫎퓚싺ퟣ틔쿂풼쫸뗄쳵볾쿂쪵쿖웤놨돪뗄ퟮ듳뮯ꎺꎨ1ꎩ듻뿮헟쯹쓜뗃떽뗄웚췻믘놨싊늻쓜뗍폚rꎻꎨ2ꎩ웳튵볒쎻폐뚯솦좥틾싷짺닺뗄헦쪵쟩뿶ꎻꎨ3ꎩ퓚짏놨늻뫃뗄ힴ첬뗄쪱뫲ꎬ웤쯹쏦쇙뗄볠맜뗄뿉쓜탔캪pꎬ볠맜뗄돉놾γ>0ꆣ 듓뛸ꎬퟮ폅뗄뷨듻뫏춬뻍쫇튪좷뚨ퟮ병뗄{p, c,c}틔뷢뻶쿂쏦뗄컊쳢ꎺ 1 2 Max π1c+ π2 c ꎨ5ꎩ 1 2Subject to eee π1c+ π2 c =π1[θ f (x, h) – pqγ] + π2 (θ +ꚤ)f (x, h) – r (x – k); ꎨ6ꎩ 1 2111111e c ꇝ [c+ꚤf (x, h)] (1 – p); ꎨ7ꎩ 21 11 c ꇝ 0; ꎨ8ꎩ 1 c ꇝ 0; ꎨ9ꎩ 2 0 ꇜ p ꇜ 1; ꎨ10ꎩ 쪽ꎨ5ꎩ쫇웳튵볒뗄ퟮ듳뮯쒿뇪ꎻ쪽ꎨ6ꎩ뇭쏷웳튵볒뗄ퟮ듳놨돪횻쓜듓웤웚췻뗄닺돶훐뿛돽뢶룸듻뿮헟뗄샻쾢뫍놾뷰뗄믘놨뫳뗃떽ꎬ헢폫Bernanke폫Gertler뗄쒣탍쫇믹놾튻훂뗄ꎬ횻쫇헢샯뾼달뗄쫇짺닺뗄벼쫵뛸늢럇춶뗄벼ee쫵ꎬ춬쪱짺닺몯쫽샯뾼싇쇋죋솦놾h뗄펰쿬ꆣk쫇웳튵볒춶죫떽짺닺춶죫11e놾욷x훐뗄ퟔ폐놾ꆣ폫Bernanke뫍Gertler뗄쒣탍훐뗄S쫇튻훂뗄ꆣ떫퓚놾e컄훐ꎬS튲폃폚뇭쪾웳튵볒뗄ퟔ폐놾ꎬ떫웳튵볒뿉틔붫쯻뗄ퟔ폐닺폃폚솽룶폃춾ꎺꎨ1ꎩ춶죫떽짺닺훐뗄놾욷ꎬ돉캪짺닺춶죫x뗄튻늿럖ꎻꎨ2ꎩ냑횮폃퓚죋e솦놾뗄쳡룟짏ꎬ탎돉hꆣ틲뛸ꎬ뿉틔뗃떽ꎺ 1eee S = h+ k ꎨ11ꎩ 1 14
튲뿉틔뇭쫶캪ꎺ eeee k = ꛂSꎻ h =ꎨ1 –ꛂꎩS ꎨ12ꎩ 11웤훐ꛂ캪웳튵볒ퟔ폐놾훐폃폚짺닺탔춶죫뗄뇈샽ꆣ 쪽ꎨ7ꎩ퓲쿻돽쇋웳튵볒퓚랢짺뫃뗄ힴ첬쿂믡믑놨캪늻뫃뗄ힴ첬뗄뿉쓜탔ꆣ쪽ꎨ8ꎩ뇭쏷벴쪹퓚ퟮ닮뗄짺닺ힴ첬쿂ꎬ웳튵볒쯹쓜믱뗃뗄ퟮ훕놨돪늻쓜캪뢺ꎬ튲벴ퟮ훕뗄쪱뫲ꎬ웳튵볒늻쓜폐뢺햮ꆣ쪽ꎨ9ꎩ쪵볊짏뿉틔듓쪽ꎨ7ꎩ뫍쪽ꎨ8ꎩ췆떼돶살ꆣ쪽ꎨ10ꎩ뇭쏷볠맜룅싊뗄뿉탐뿕볤ꆣ 평쪽ꎨ7ꎩ컒쏇뿉틔뗃떽c폫p뗄맘쾵ꎬ 1eee c(c , h, ꛐ , r , k) = [c + ꚤf(x, h)] (1- p) ꎨ13ꎩ 2 11 21111- - + - + 웤훐c뗄틾탔몯쫽뇭쫶뿉틔듓쪽ꎨ6ꎩ훐뗃떽ꆣ틲뛸ꎬ죧춼1쯹쪾ꎺ 2c 1 p* p 춼1 평폚볠맜뗄돉놾쫇횱뷓폫볠맜뗄룅싊쿠맘뗄ꎬ캪ꛐ pqꛃꎬ틲뛸ꎬ쯦ퟅc뗄퓶11볓ꎬ웳튵볒믑놨뗄뚯솦튲뻍풽듳ꎬ쯹탨볠맜뗄룅싊튲뻍풽듳ꎬ듓뛸볠맜뗄돉놾뻍믡풽룟ꎬ놾욷뗄샋럑튲뻍뇘좻뗄볓뻧쇋ꆣ틲뛸ꎬ캪쇋쪹뗃웳튵볒쎻폐믑놨뗄뚯솦ꎬ춬쪱폖늻믡퓶볓럇뇘탨뗄볠맜돉놾ꎬ튻냣듻뿮죋뻍믡냑c뚨퓚웤ퟮ뗍뗄쮮1욽ꆣ 평cꇝ0ꎬ맊c = 0ꆣ헢쪱뻍쓜좷뚨튻룶ퟮ폅뗄룅싊p*ꆣ평춼훐뿉틔뾴떽ꎬ11eek 믲h 뗄퓶볓뚼믡틽웰쟺쿟뗄ퟳ틆ꎬ듓뛸붵뗍p*ꎬ튲벴붵뗍쇋볠맜뗄돉놾ꆣ 11쿂쏦ꎬ컒쏇살뻟쳥뗄뾴튻쿂쯼쏇횮볤뗄맘쾵ꆣ 평c = 0ꎬ뿉뗃ꎺ 1eee ꛐ c = ꛐ (f(x, h) – pqꛃ) + ꛐ (ꚤ)f(x, h) – r (x– k)ꎨ14ꎩ 221ꛈ112ꛈ+1111e c=ꚤf(x, h) (1- p) ꎨ15ꎩ 2 11eer(x−k)−θ⋅f(x,h)1111p=ꎨ16ꎩ eπ∆f(x,h)−πqγ2111평ꎨ14ꎩꆢꎨ15ꎩ쪽뿉틔뷢뗃ꎺ 헢튻뷡맻웤쪵폫Bernanke폫Gertler쯹뗃떽뗄뷡맻쫇췪좫튻훂뗄ꆣ컒쏇볙짨웳튵볒쯹폐뗄ퟔ폐닺뚼폃폚짺닺탔뗄춶죫ꎬ퓲폐ꎺ eee ꎨ17ꎩ k=S;h=0;1115
틲뛸 er(x−S)−θ⋅f(x)111p=ꎨ18ꎩ π∆f(x)−πqγ211 헢뻍쫇Bernanke뫍Gertler쯹뗃떽뗄쒣탍뷡맻ꎬ튲벴ퟔ폐놾퓚짺닺탔춶죫뗄퓶볓ꎬ믡쪹뗃볠맜뗄룅싊붵뗍ꎬ듓뛸붵뗍쇋볠맜뗄돉놾ꆣ e좻뛸ꎬ떱웳튵볒냑쯹폐뗄ퟔ폐놾S뚼춶죫떽ퟔ짭죋솦놾뗄춶쪱ꎬ퓲뎬1돶쇋Bernanke폫Gertler뗄쒣탍쯹쓜뷢쫍뗄랶캧ꎬ헢쪱ꎺ eeh=S;ꎨ19ꎩ 11e k=0;1 er⋅x−θ⋅f(x,h)111ꎨ20ꎩ p=eπ∆f(x,h)−πqγ2111 ∂fee>0평폚 ꎬ틲뛸떱h퓶볓쪱ꎬp튲믡쯦횮복짙ꎬ늢쟒h쯹틽웰뗄p뗄11e∂h1뇤뮯늻뷶뷶랴펳퓚럖ퟓ짏ꎬ뛸쟒뮹랴펳퓚럖쒸짏ꆣ컒쏇뿉틔평ꎨ16ꎩ쪽럖뇰뛔eek뫍h쟳떼ꎬ틔뷸튻늽럖컶웤뇤뮯뗄쟩뿶ꆣ 11∂pr =−ee∂kπ∆f(x,h)−πqγ ꎨ21ꎩ 12111 ∂fθee ∂p∂hrx−θ⋅f(x,h)∂f1111=−−⋅π∆2eee2e ∂hπ∆f(x,h)−πqγ[π∆f(x,h)−πqγ]∂h1211121111 1∂f∂f ꎨ22ꎩ =−[θ+πp∆]2eeeπ∆f(x,h)−πqγ∂h∂h 211111 ∂p∂p<0ee<0e쿔좻폐 ꎬ ꎬ튲벴k뫍h뗄퓶볓뚼믡쪹뗃볠맜돉놾복짙ꆣ11e∂h1∂k1좻뛸ꎬ떽뗗퓚쪲쎴쟩뿶쿂ꎬ솽헟훐쓄룶뛔p뗄펰쿬룼듳ꎿ ∂p∂p∂f∂f[θ+πp∆]헢뻍튪뷸튻늽뾼달 틔벰 뗄듳킡ꎬ튲벴뇈뷏r폫 2 뗄eeee∂k∂h∂h∂h1111듳킡ꆣ폖평폚 ∂f∂fθ+πp∆2 ee∂h∂h11∂f∂f=(π+π)θ+πp∆ 122ee∂h∂h11∂f∂f∂f=πθ+π(θ+∆)−π(1−p)∆ 122eee∂h∂h∂h111 ∂f∂f =Eθ−π(1−p)∆2ee∂h∂h11 ꎨ23ꎩ 6
ee쪽ꎨ23ꎩ훐뗚튻쿮쿔좻캪h 뛔웚췻닺돶뗄펰쿬ꎬ뗚뛾쿮퓲쫇h 뛔믑놨뗄뛮11췢믱샻뗄펰쿬ꆣ ∂p∂p ∂f∂f떱r > [ E θ − π (1 − p ) ∆ ]쪱ꎬ쿔좻ꎬ폐 e > e ꎬ헢쪱냑ퟔ폐2ee∂k∂h11∂h∂h11놾춶죫떽짺닺탔뗄춶죫훐쯹듸살뗄볠맜돉놾뗄뷚풼튪듳폚춶죫떽죋솦놾훐ꆣ 헢훖쟩뿶랢짺퓚r뫜룟ꎬ벴놾쫐뎡릩룸뷏캪쾡좱ꎬ폖믲웚췻뗄짺닺벼쫵쮮 욽늻룟(Eθ뷏뗍)ꎬ춬쪱웳튵볒믑놨뗄뚯솦뷏듳ꎬ뛸볠맜뗄믺훆늻췪짆ꎬ듓뛸p뗄쮮욽뷏뗍뗄쪱뫲ꆣ뛸헢훖쟩뿶췹췹쫇퓚뺭볃쮥췋ꆢ뷰뷴좱뗄쪱뫲돶쿖ꎬ폖믲헟퓚놾듦솿늻룟ꆢ짺닺벼쫵실뫳뗄랢햹훐맺볒돶쿖ꆣ퓚헢킩쪱뫲ꎬ냑룼뛠뗄ퟔ폐놾춶죫폚짺닺탔놾욷믡룼폐샻폚볠맜뗄짧믡돉놾뗄뷚풼ꎬ튲뻍뛔뺭볃뗄늨뚯폐ퟅ룼듳뗄럅듳ퟷ폃ꆣ ∂p∂p∂f∂f떱r < 뗄쪱뫲ꎬ쿔좻ꎬ폐 < ꎬ헢쪱[Eθ−π(1−p)∆]ee2ee∂k∂h∂h∂h1111퓲펦냑룼뛠뗄ퟔ폐놾춶죫떽죋솦놾뗄룄짆짏ꎬ닅쓜듸살볠맜돉놾뗄ퟮ듳뗄뷚풼ꆣ 쿔좻ꎬ폫짏튻쟩뿶쿠랴ꆣ헢쪱뷨듻쫐뎡뷏캪랢듯ꎬ뷰돉놾늻룟ꎬ춬쪱뺭볃랢햹뗄벼쫵뮷뺳솼뫃ꎬ뛸쟒볠맜믺훆뇈뷏췪짆ꎬ죋솦놾뛔폚짺닺몯쫽뗄뇟볊릱쿗튲뇈뷏듳ꆣ ee컒쏇뿉틔춨맽뷸튻늽뾼달k 폫h횮볤뗄쿠뮥맘쾵살좷뚨떽뗗펦퓵퇹좷뚨튻11ee룶ퟮ병뗄k 뫍hꎬ평쪽ꎨ20ꎩ뿉틔횪뗀 11 eee[πp∆f(x,h)−πpqγ=r(x−k)−θ⋅f(x,h) 2 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 ꎨ24ꎩ e πpqγ(πp∆+θ)f(x,h)e1211k=x+−11 r r ꎨ25ꎩ e틲뛸ꎬ듋쪱뗄컊쳢뻍쫇죧뫎퓚튻뚨S뗄풼쫸쿂ꎬ쪹뗃볠맜뗄돉놾ퟮ킡ꎬ튲벴1쪹뗃볠맜뗄룅싊ퟮ킡ꎬ튲벴쫇튪뷢뻶쿂쏦ퟮ폅뮯뗄컊쳢ꎺ Min πpqγ ꎨ26ꎩ 1eπpqγ(πp∆+θ)f(x,h). k=x+−11rr ꎨ27ꎩ eeek+h=S 1 1 1 ꎨ28ꎩ 헢튻컊쳢뗄뷢뻶뿉평춼2살뇭쪾ꎬS-S쿟쫇풤쯣풼쫸쿟튲벴쪽ꎨ28ꎩꎬ뛸쟺쿟P-P퓲뇭쏷퓚튻뚨볠맜룅싊p쿂뗄컞닮틬쟺쿟ꎬ튲벴쪽ꎨ27ꎩꎬ쿔좻ꎬP-P쿟풽췹췢ꎬ퓲쯹뇭쪾뗄볠맜뗄룅싊뻍풽킡ꎬ틲뛸볠맜뗄돉놾튲뻍풽킡ꆣ e k1P S *7ek1Pe*S
**ee듓뛸ꎬ떱P-P쿟폫S-S쿟쿠쟐쪱ꎬ뇣좷뚨쇋ퟮ병뗄k 폫h1ꎬ죧춼2쯹쪾ꆣ 1ee뷸튻늽뾼달k 폫h횮볤뗄쳦듺맘쾵ꎬ평쪽ꎨ27ꎩ뿉뗃ꎺ 11edk(πp∆+θ)∂f 12=−eedhr∂h ꎨ29ꎩ 11 퓚솽헟쿠쟐뗄쪱뫲ꎬ펦룃폐 edk(πp∆+θ)∂f12=−=−1 ꎨ30ꎩ eedhr∂h11 틲뛸ꎬퟮ폅쳵볾캪 ∂f(πp∆+θ)=r 2 ꎨ31ꎩ e∂h1 ∂f(πp∆+θ)>ree2e떱 쪱ꎬ뇣뿉틔춨맽복짙k 뗄춶죫뛸퓶볓h뗄춶죫살11∂h1믱뗃볠맜돉놾뗄뷚풼ꎬ랴횮튲튻퇹ꆣ헢웤쪵폫짏쏦뗄럖컶룕뫃쫇튻훂뗄ꆣ 뛸평쪽ꎨ5ꎩꎬꎨ16ꎩꎬ컒쏇튲뿉틔뷢돶웳튵볒뗄웚췻믘놨cꎺ c=πc22 e=π∆f(x,h)(1−p)211 ee=α[Eθ⋅f(x,h)−r(x−k)−πqγ] 1 1 1 1 1 ꎨ32ꎩ eπ∆f(x,h)211α=>1웤훐 ꎻ eπ∆f(x,h)−πqγ2111 틲뛸ꎬ듓헢뛾웚뗄볲떥뗄쒣탍살뾴ꎬ쯼쯹뗃떽뗄뷡싛폫Bernanke폫Gertler퓚웤컄헂훐뗃떽뗄뷡싛뿉틔쮵쫇믹놾짏튻훂뗄ꆣ떫헢튻쒣탍룼쿪쾸뗄쳖싛쇋퓚헢튻뷰죚볓쯙웷훐죋솦놾폫짺닺탔놾뗄쳦듺맘쾵ꆣ듓헢튻쒣탍뿉틔뾴떽ꎬ늢럇죎뫎쪱뫲뚼쫇웳튵볒퓚짺닺탔놾훐뗄ퟔ폐닺뗄춶죫뚼믡듸살ퟮ병뗄볠맜돉놾뗄뷚풼ꆣ췹췹퓚쒳킩쪱뫲ꎬ죋솦놾뗄춶죫웰ퟅ쿠떱훘튪뗄ퟷ폃ꎬ폈웤쫇떱 ∂f(πp∆+θ)>r뗄쪱뫲ꆣ2헢쪱죋솦놾뛔뺭볃늨뚯뗄럅듳ퟷ폃쫇럇뎣쏷쿔뗄ꆣ평폚쪣쿂뗄럖컶뚼e∂h1뿉틔닎뾼Bernanke폫Gertler퓚1989쓪뗄컄헂ꎬ맊퓚듋늻퓙쳖싛ퟜ탨쟳폫ퟜ릩룸뗄쟩뿶ꎬ뛸횻쫇탰쫶튻쿂뚯첬뗄쟩탎ꆣ 떱랢짺벼쫵짏뗄돥믷뗄쪱뫲ꎬ죧θ뗄쳡룟ꎬ듓뛸믡쪹뗃닺돶쮮욽뗄퓶듳ꎬ틲eee뛸웳튵볒뗄뺻닺S쳡룟ꆣ헢쪱ꎬ웳튵볒믡춨맽뫏샭뗄럖엤ꎬ퓶볓웤퓚k뫍h111e짏뗄춶죫ꎬ듓뛸쪹뗃헢훖뺭볃뗄삩헅쓜릻뎤웚뗄돖탸쿂좥ꆣ평폚k뗄퓶볓붵뗍1 8
e쇋볠맜뗄돉놾ꎬ뛸h뗄퓶볓퓲퓚튻랽쏦붵뗍쇋볠맜뗄돉놾ꎬ뛸쇭튻랽쏦폖쳡룟1쇋닺돶ꎬ듓뛸쪹뗃ퟜ쳥뗄짧믡닺돶쳡룟ꎬ헢퇹뇣뷸튻늽볓쯙쇋헢훖럅듳뗄ퟷ폃ꆣee춬퇹뗀샭ꎬ퓚랢짺늻뫃뗄벼쫵돥믷뗄쪱뫲ꎬk뫍h뗄춶죫튲뇣믡복짙ꎬ헢퇹늻11뷶볠맜뗄돉놾퓶볓ꎬ뛸쟒춬쪱죋솦놾뗄춶죫뗄복짙튲믡쪹폃좨뗃짺닺뗄킧싊붵뗍ꎬ튲뻍뷸튻늽뛱뮯쇋뺭볃뗄쿴쳵ꆣ뛸헢퇹튻훖쟩뿶ꎬ폖췹췹쫇폫쿖쪵룼캪쿠럻뗄ꆣ 틔짏횻쫇쳖싛쇋뛾웚뗄쟩뿶ꎬ틲뛸쎻폐쳖싛떽죋솦놾뗄춶죫쯹듸살뗄캴살ꋛ쫕죫뗄퓶볓ퟷ캪뗖톺뗄쟩뿶ꆣ쿂쏦ꎬ붫뷸튻늽붫헢튻쒣탍삩햹떽뛠웚ꆣ 2ꎮ 죽웚쒣탍 퓚짏튻쒣탍훐ꎬ컒쏇뿉틔횪뗀웳튵볒퓚1웚뗄웚췻믘놨캪ꎺ *e*eVˆ(k,h)=c=πc+πc111122 *e*e = α [Eθ π ⋅f(x,h)−rx−qγ]+α⋅rk11111e (33) =V(S)1 평cꇝ0,뿉뗃떽: e*e*e (34) k≥k=−[Eθ⋅f(x,h)−rx−πqγ]/r111111 ek쫇웳튵볒퓚1웚뗄짺닺뷡쫸쪱듯떽춶죫뫍닺돶쿠욽뫢쪱뗄ퟔ폐놾짺닺탔1e춶죫뗄훘튪뷧쿞ꎬ퓚ퟔ폐놾뗄짺닺탔춶죫캪k쪱ꎬ웳튵볒뗄웚췻ퟮ훕놨돪룕1뫃캪0ꆣ e평쪽ꎨ34ꎩ뿉틔뾴떽ꎬk쫇뿉틔캪뢺뗄ꎬ튲벴쫇쮵ꎬ퓚헢훖쟩뿶쿂뻍믡돶쿖1eSꇜ0뫺뿉쓜ꆣ틲뛸웳튵볒틑뺭쎻폐ퟔ폐놾뇘탫듳폚뗈폚쇣뗄풼쫸ꎬ뛸쫇뿉틔1뷸탐뢺햮뺭펪ꆣ ee떫뾼싇떽h쫇퓚짺닺훐죋솦놾뗄춶죫ꎬ틲뛸뇘좻폐hꇝ0ꆣ틲뛸ꎬ뛔펦럖11뾪뷸탐뾼싇ꆣ평쪽ꎨ25ꎩ뿉틔뗃떽ꎺ **eeeh1ꎬ 죧맻h1ꎨkꎩꇝ0ꎻ1eh= { 1*ee0ꎬ 죧맻h1ꎨkꎩ< 0ꎻ1 평듋ꎬ튲뻍뿉틔뗃떽 eeeeh1ꎨkꎩꎬ 죧맻h1ꎨkꎩꇝ0ꎻ11eh= { 1ee0ꎬ 죧맻h1ꎨkꎩ< 0ꎻ1*eeeeeeee틲뛸ꎬ떱k= k쪱ꎬ평k뻍뿉틔뗃떽Sꎬ쟒S= h+kꆣ평hꇝ0ꎬ뿉틔11111111 ꋛ 닎뾼Mark Gertler, Financial Capacity and Output fluctuations in an Economy with Multi-Period Financial Relationship, 9
eeeee횪뗀ꎬ떱S= h+k< 0쪱ꎬ퓲폐S< k< 0ꎬ헢뇭쏷웳튵볒뿉틔뷸탐짺닺탔죚111 11 ꎬ샻폃뢺햮살뷸탐짺닺ꎬ뛸헢튻뢺햮뗄ퟮ룟뛮뛈폖룕뫃뗈폚쯻퓚2웚뗄짺닺쿮ee쒿쯹쓜닺짺뗄믘놨뗄쿖횵ꆣ틲뛸ꎬSꎨ좷쟐뗄쮵ꎬ펦룃쫇kꎩ뿉틔뾴ퟷ쫇웤죚11쓜솦뗄듳킡ꎬ쫇웳튵볒뿉틔뢺떣뗄ퟮ듳뗄뢺햮ꆣ e튻떩웳튵볒퓚1웚뾪쪼쪱뫲뗄뢺햮틑뎬맽쇋S뗄쪱뫲ꎬ퓲웤웚췻뗄ퟮ훕믘놨1뻍믡쫇뢺뗄ꎬ헢쪱쯻붫뗃늻떽죎뫎춶헟뗄춶ꆣ틲뛸튲뻍늻뿉쓜뷸탐짺닺ꆣ 좻뛸ꎬ헢샯죔좻듦퓚튻킩탨튪힢틢뗄컊쳢ꆣ ee*e*e떱h= hꎨkꎩꇝ0쪱ꎬ쿔좻헢쪱폫잰쏦뗄럖컶죔좻쫇튻퇹뗄ꎬퟮ폅뷢ꎨk1111ꎬ*e*e*ehꎩ쪹뗃볠맜뗄돉놾듯떽ퟮ킡ꆣ떫헢쪱믡듦퓚hꇝ0뛸k< 0뗄쟩뿶ꆣ헢뇭쏷111eee뺡맜헢쪱퓚짺닺쿮쒿뾪쪼틔잰ꎬ웳튵볒뗄ퟔ폐놾S= h+k< 0ꎬ떫캪쇋쪹볠111맜뗄돉놾듯떽ퟮ뗍ꎬ웳튵볒죔좻뿉틔뷸튻늽춨맽뻙햮살룄짆죋솦놾뗄ힴ뿶ꆣ춨맽볓잿맜샭ꎬ죋풱엠통ꎬ쳡룟벼쫵뗈살쳡룟ퟔ짭뗄뺭펪쓜솦뫍탅뛈ꎬ듓뛸펮뗃짺닺쿮쒿뗄춶뫍룼듳뗄믱샻ꆣ헢훖쟩뿶뗄랢짺퓚쿖쪵훐늢럇뎣볻ꎬꎨ틲캪퓚뢺햮뗄쟩뿶쿂퓙뷸탐럇짺닺탔뗄뻙햮늢럇쫇튻볾죝틗뗄쫂ꎩ돽럇룃훖죋솦놾뗄춶죫쫇럇뎣뗄ힿ폐돉킧뗄ꎨ뇈죧떱잰퓚쒳킩웳튵훐뷸탐췸싧맜샭뗄춶죫붨짨뗈ꎩꆣ ee*e*e*e떱h= 0 ꇙ hꎨkꎩ쪱ꎬ퓲ꎨkhꎩ뻍늻퓙쫇쪹뗃볠맜돉놾듯떽ퟮ뗍뗄1111ꎬ1eퟮ폅뷢쇋ꆣ틲뛸ꎬ떱Sꇜ0쪱ꎬ튲벴웳튵볒퓚뷸탐짺닺춶틔잰쎻폐ퟔ폐놾늢1듦퓚뢺햮쪱ꎬ웳튵볒뻍늻뿉쓜춨맽죋솦놾뗄춶죫살룄짆웤탅뗄돌뛈틔벰캴살뗄짺닺킧싊ꎬ헢쪱볠맜돉놾횻쫓웤뢺햮ힴ뿶뛸뚨ꎬ뛸폫웤뢺햮뷡릹컞맘ꆣ 쿖퓚컒쏇뻍뿉틔뾼싇0웚뗄짺닺쟩뿶쇋ꆣ폫1웚뗄짺닺쟩뿶튻퇹ꎬ웳튵볒퓚 0000웚웚쒩뗄쪱뫲ꎬ웤믘놨캪c= ꛐC+ ꛐCꎬ뛸헢튻믘놨잡뫃폖쫇웳튵볒퓚뷸1122e탐1웚짺닺쪱쯹펵폐뗄웚췻ퟔ폐놾E Sꎨ헢샯볙짨웳튵볒퓚훐볤뷗뛎늢늻뷸1탐쿻럑ꎩꆣ튲벴ꎺ e0 ES = c, (36) 10C2 ꎬ룅싊캪π2 e웤훐ꎬS = { ꎨ37ꎩ 10C1 ꎬ룅싊캪π1=1-π2 00틲뛸0웚뗄짺닺컊쳢뻍쫇튪뻶뚨{ CꎬCꎬp}ꎬ틔쪹뗃ꎺ 1200Max [π V (c ) + π V ( c ) ]/ r (38) 112200eee (39) πc+πc=π[θ⋅f(x,h)−pqγ]+π(θ+∆)f(x,h)−rx+rk1122100020000 (40) 00eV(c)≥[V(c)+∆f(x,h)](1−p)2100 ee0eec≥S=−S(k)=−[Eθ⋅f(x,h)−r(x−πqγ)]/rβ 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 (41) ee웤훐ꎬ k=βS11 0쒿뇪몯쫽ꎨ38ꎩ쫇웳튵볒뗄ퟮ훕볛횵퓚0웚뗄쳹쿖횵ꎬ웤훐웤볛횵랽돌쫇C10벰C뗄몯쫽ꎬ평쪽ꎨ33ꎩ뫍쪽ꎨ37ꎩ뿉틔뗃떽ꆣ쪽ꎨ39ꎩ쫇웳튵볒퓚0웚쪱뗄2 10
짺닺탔풼쫸ꎬ룃풼쫸폫웤퓚1웚뗄쟩뿶쫇튻퇹뗄ꆣ뛸쪽ꎨ40ꎩ퓲폫잰쏦뗄쪽ꎨ7ꎩ쿠샠쯆ꎬ쫇뛔웳튵볒믑놨짺닺헦쪵쟩뿶뗄훆풼ꆣ떫헢샯뗄훆풼폫쪽ꎨ7ꎩ폐쯹늻춬ꎬ헢샯닉폃뗄쫇웤ퟮ훕뗄믘놨ꎬ튲벴볙짨웳튵볒쫇ힷ쟳뎤웚샻틦ퟮ듳뮯뗄ꆣ믑놨뗃떽뗄뫃뒦늢쎻폐뷸죫떽웤ퟮ훕볛횵몯쫽V(ꆤ)훐ꎬ헢쫇틲캪죧맻튻떩쯻퓚짺닺맽돌훐냑믑놨뗃떽뗄뫃뒦춶죫폚짺닺믲죋솦놾뗄춶훐ꎬ쓇쎴쯻뗄헢늿럖ꆰ믒즫쫕죫ꆱ뻍믡놻듻뿮헟랢쿖ꆣ틲뛸ꎬ웳튵볒횻쓜냑헢훖럇헽춾좡뗃뗄쫕죫폃폚쏘쏜뗄룶죋쿻럑횮훐ꆣ 0쪽ꎨ41ꎩ룸돶쇋뗄Cퟮ뗍쿂쿞ꎬ웳튵볒퓚0웚짺닺뷡쫸쪱뿉틔뢺햮헢폫1웚10뗄쟩뿶쫇폐쯹늻춬뗄ꆣ튲뻍쫇쮵C뿉틔쫇뢺뗄ꎬ횻튪웳튵볒퓚0웚뗄뢺햮뿉틔1폃1웚뗄짺닺믘놨볓틔뎥뮹벴뿉ꆣ퓚헢훖쟩뿶쿂ꎬ평ꎨ41ꎩ쪽컒쏇뿉틔뾴떽ꎬ떱**e*eeeeehꎨkꎩꇝ0뗄쪱뫲ꎬS쫇폫h쿠솪쾵뗄ꎬ떱h퓶듳뗄쪱뫲ꎬS튲뻍퓶듳ꎬ111111튲벴웳튵볒퓚0웚쪱뗄죚쓜솦튲뻍쓜릻뗃떽쳡룟ꎬ뛸평쪽ꎨ40ꎩꎬ컒쏇춬퇹뿉0틔뗃떽죧춼3뗄쟺쿟ꆣ죧춼ꎬPC쟺쿟폫춼1쿠샠쯆ꎬ횻쫇헢쪱ꎬ평폚C뿉틔캪10e뢺ꎬ튲벴웳튵볒뿉틔퓚웚쒩뷸탐뢺햮듓뛸쪹뗃C뗄ퟮ킡횵뿉틔듯떽Sꆣ캪붵뗍110볠맜뗄돉놾ꎬ듻뿮헟뻍뿉틔퓚웳튵볒짏놨늻뫃뗄짺닺ힴ첬쪱ꎬ냑웤믘놨C뚨퓚1eS짏ꎬ듓뛸쪹웳튵볒쪧좥믑놨뗄뚯솦ꎬ듓뛸쪹뗃볠맜뗄돉놾듳듳뗄복짙ꆣ 1 0C 1 P p* p FC C 춼3 헢튻뷡맻뿉틔쮵폫Gertler퓚1991쓪뗄쒣탍훐쯹뗃떽뗄뷡맻쫇췪좫튻훂뗄ꆣ떫퓚헢튻쒣탍훐ꎬ뮹뿉틔뾼싇죋솦놾뗄펰쿬ꆣ평쪽ꎨ41ꎩ컒쏇뮹뿉틔뗃떽뫏풼0ee훐뗄C낲업폫웳튵볒뗃틔춶죫h틔벰퓚1웚훐춶죫h뗄맘쾵ꆣ죧잰쯹쫶ꎬ죴101e*ee듦퓚럇뎣폐킧뗄죋솦놾뗄춶쿮쒿ꎬ쪹뗃hꎨkꎩꇝ0ꎬ떱h짏짽쪱ꎬ웳튵111볒퓚0웚뗄죚쓜솦퓶잿ꎬ틲뛸FC쿟쿂틆ꎬ듓뛸볠맜뗄돉놾P*쿂붵ꎬ춬쪱ꎬ떱eeh짏짽쪱ꎬ짺닺뗄킧싊믡뗃떽쳡룟ꎬPC쿟ퟳ틆ꎬ춬퇹믡틽웰P*뗄쿂붵ꆣ틲뛸h11뛔P*뗄펰쿬쫇쮫훘뗄ꎬ튻랽쏦뿉틔퓶잿웳튵볒뗄죚쓜솦ꎨfinancial ecapacityꎩꎬ쪹볠맜뗄돉놾복짙ꎻ뛸쇭튻랽쏦뗄h쳡룟뮹뿉틔듸살짺닺킧싊뗄룄1 11
짆ꎬ쪹뗃퓚뫃뗄ힴ뿶쿂헦쪵짏놨짺닺뗄쟩뿶쓜쪹뗃캴살뗄닺돶틔룼듳뗄럹뛈퓶볓ꎬ듓뛸쪹뗃웳튵볒쪧좥쇋믑놨뗄뚯솦ꆣ eee뛸춬쪱h뗄쳡룟튲믡틽웰PC쿟뗄ퟳ틆ꎬ헢폫춼1쫇튻퇹뗄ꎬ듋쪱k폫h000*eee쯹틽웰뗄ퟷ폃폫잰쏦k 폫hퟷ폃쫇튻훂뗄ꆣ떱좻퓚헢샯튲믡폐튻룶ퟮ폅뗄k 110*e폫h뗄좷뚨뗄컊쳢ꎬ퓚헢늻퓙ힸ쫶ꆣ 0떱좻ꎬ헢쪱튲믡폐웳튵볒튪쟳훘탂뗷헻뫏풼뗄쟩뿶랢짺ꎨReschedlingꎩꎬ튲0e0벴웳튵볒뿉쓜믡쾣췻늻튪냑C뚨퓚S뗄캻훃짏ꎬ뛸쫇뿉틔춨맽복짙C뗄믘놨1120뛸퓶볓C뗄믘놨ꎬ듓뛸쪹뗃풤웚뗄뎤웚쫕죫믡룼룟ꆣ떫퓚헢헢쟩뿶쿂ꎬ놾컄뗄1쒣탍폫Gertler퓚1991쓪뗄쒣탍쫇벸뫵튻훂뗄ꎬ퓚헢뻍늻퓙ퟶ짮죫뗄쳖싛ꆣ 3ꎮ 뫪맛뺭볃훐뗄펦폃 퓚뫪맛뺭볃훐ꎬ컒쏇탨냑룷웳튵볒뗄짺닺쟩뿶뷸탐볓ퟜꎬ좻뫳좥뾼달뷰죚볓쯙웷뗄럅듳ퟷ폃ꆣ평폚헢샯볙짨웳튵볒쫇뗤탍뗄웳튵볒ꎬ틲뛸뿉틔냑룷웳튵볒뗄닺돶쮮욽쿟탔쿠볓ꎬ듓뛸뗃떽짧믡뗄ퟜ닺돶ꆣ eeY=η[πθ⋅f(x,h)−πpqγ+π(θ+∆)f(x,h)] 0 1 0 0 1 0 2 0 0 ꎨ42ꎩ ee ꎨ43ꎩ Y=η[πθ⋅f(x,h)−πpqγ+π(θ+∆)f(x,h)]11111211 퓚Gertler뗄퇐뺿훐ꎬ평폚쎻폐뾼싇죋솦놾뗄ퟷ폃ꎬ틲뛸퓚탅쾢뛔돆뗄쟩뿶쿂ꎬY폫Y쫇쿠뮥뛀솢뗄뛸쟒놾욷퓚튻룶쪱웚뷡쫸횮뫳쫇췪좫뗄뇡횵뗄ꎬ듓01뛸뺭볃뗄돥믷횻쓜뛔떱웚뗄닺돶퓬돉펰쿬ꎬ뛸늻믡폐럅듳뗄믺훆냑헢훖펰쿬퇓탸쿂좥ꆣ튲벴쫇쮵ꎬ짧믡뗄ퟜ닺돶횻폫떱웚뗄틲쯘쿠맘ꎬ뛸폫샺쪷쫇늻쿠맘뗄ꆣ 뛸퓚헢튻쒣탍ꎬ벴쪹퓚탅쾢췪좫뛔돆뗄쟩뿶쿂ꎨꛃ=0ꎩꎬ횻튪폐죋솦놾뗄춶죫ꎬ뺭볃뗄돥믷뻍믡놻럅듳ꎬ벴쪹죋솦놾튲죧웤쯼놾욷튻퇹ꎬ퓚튻룶쪱웚뷡쫸쪱췪좫뗄뇡횵ꆣ평쪽ꎨ43ꎩ뿉틔뾴떽ꎬ1웚웚쒩뗄닺돶틀삵폚뺭볃훐벼쫵뗄돥믷ꎬ짺닺탔뗄놾춶죫ꎬ헢틽웰뚼횻폫떱웚뗄틲쯘쿠맘ꎬ뛸폫0웚쎻폐죎뫎맘쾵ꆣ*e좻뛸ꎬ1웚뗄닺돶퓚헢샯좴뮹튪틀삵폚웳튵볒ퟔ짭죋솦놾뗄춶죫hꎬ뛸춬쪱1*ee죧짏쏦쯹럖컶뗄튻퇹h폖쫇웳튵볒ퟔ폐닺S뗄몯쫽ꆣ 11e죧잰뛸쯹럖컶ꎬS틀삵폚웳튵볒퓚0웚쯹쓜뗃떽뗄믘놨ꆣ틲뛸헢쪱Y폫Y101 쫇쿠맘뗄ꆣ떱0웚닺짺쇋뺭볃뗄돥믷ꎬ죧짺닺벼쫵θ뗄쳡룟ꎬ퓚0웚뗄닺돶튲뻍믡퓶볓ꎬ웳튵볒쯹쓜뗃떽뗄믘놨튲뻍퓶볓ꆣ헢쪱벴쪹퓚탅쾢뛔돆뗄쟩뿶쿂ꎬ웳튵볒폃폚1웚뗄죋솦놾뗄춶죫튲뻍쿠펦뗄쓜뗃떽퓶볓ꎬ듓뛸믡듙뷸1웚짺닺킧싊뗄쳡룟ꎬ삩듳웤퓚1웚뗄닺돶ꆣ 12
떱좻헢튻맽돌튲뿉틔춨맽쒣탍뗄췆떼살쮵쏷ꎬ떫웤훐뗄뗀샭쫇뇈뷏쏷쿔뗄ꎬ틲뛸퓚헢튲늻퓙뷸탐쫽톧짏뗄싛횤ꆣ 퓚탅쾢늻뛔돆뗄쟩뿶쿂ꎨꛃ>0ꎩꎬ뺭볃뗄돥믷뻍믡평폚볠맜돉놾뗄듦퓚뛸뷸튻늽뗄놻럅듳ꆣ틲캪쪽ꎨ43ꎩ훐뗄πpqγ틀삵폚웳튵볒퓚웚돵뗄ퟔ폐닺뗄쟩뿶ꎬ1 튲벴틀삵폚쯻퓚0웚쯹좡뗃뗄믘놨ꆣ떱퓚0웚랢짺벼쫵돥믷쪱ꎬ죧θ뗄쳡룟ꎬ퓲00C뫍C뚼믡뗃떽쳡룟ꎬY튲믡쳡룟ꆣ듓뛸웳튵볒퓚0웚웚쒩뗄ퟔ폐닺뻍쿠펦120e뗄뗃떽퓶볓ꆣ죧잰쏦럖컶튻퇹ꎬS뗄쳡룟붫쪹뗃춼2훐뗄S-S쿟췢틆ꎬ틲뛸쪹1ee뗃볠맜뗄돉놾쿂붵ꎬ춬쪱평폚k 폫h뗄쿠펦쳡룟ꎬ뷸튻늽퓶잿쇋웳튵볒퓚111웚뗄풤웚쫕죫ꎬ쪹뗃웤죚쓜솦퓶잿ꎬ춬쪱웳튵볒퓚1웚뗄짺닺킧싊튲붫믡폐쯹쳡룟ꎬ볠맜돉놾뷸튻늽쿂붵ꆣ틲듋ꎬY튲믡쿠펦뗄폐쯹짏짽ꎬ0웚뗄뺭볃돥믷뻍1펰쿬떽쇋1웚뗄닺돶짏ꎬ탎돉쇋뷰죚볓쯙웷뗄믺훆ꆣ e뛔폚웤쯼뗄뺭볃뗄돥믷ꎬ죧돵쪼웳튵볒ퟔ폐닺S뗄쳡룟ꎬ틔벰샻싊r뗄쿂0붵뗈ꎬ뚼믡폐쿠샠쯆뗄뷡맻ꆣ춬쪱웤펰쿬늻뷶뷶믡랴펳퓚떱웚뗄닺돶짏ꎬ뮹믡춨맽짺닺탔ퟔ폐닺틔벰죋솦놾춶죫뗄ퟷ폃뛸뒫뗝떽틔뫳룷웚ꆣ쿠랴ꎬ떱랢짺뢺뗄뺭볃뗄돥믷뗄쪱뫲ꎬ웤펰쿬튲믡춨맽춬퇹뗄ퟷ폃뛔틔뫳룷웚퓬돉펰쿬ꆣ 4ꎮ 뷡싛벰쿖쪵뺭볃쟩뿶 놾컄뗄쒣탍붨솢퓚뷰죚볓쯙웷샭싛뗄튻냣쒣탍뗄믹뒡횮짏ꎬ훘뗣쳖싛쇋죋솦놾뗄춶죫퓚뷰죚뒫뗝믺훆ꎨFinancial Propogation Mechanismꎩ훐뗄훘튪ퟷ폃ꆣ듓헢튻쒣탍뗄럖컶췆떼뿉틔뾴떽ꎬ퓚쎻폐볠맜돉놾뗄쳵볾쿂ꎬ죋솦놾뗄듦퓚튲믡뛔뺭볃뗄늨뚯폐ퟅ훰웚뗝퇓뗄ퟷ폃ꎬ뛸퓚폐볠맜돉놾뗄쟩뿶쿂ꎬ볠맜돉놾늻뷶틀삵폚웳튵볒뗄닺뢺햮뗄쟩뿶ꎬ튲벴웤ퟔ짭짺닺탔닺뗄춶죫ꎬ뮹틀삵폚웤죋솦놾냼삨웤벼쫵쮮욽ꆢ맜샭쮮욽ꆢ횪쪶뺭퇩뗈뗄춶죫ힴ뿶ꆣ춬쪱볠맜돉놾늻뷶틀삵떱웚뗄틲쯘ꎬ뮹믡틀삵폚캴살뗄풤웚ꎬ뛸헢훖풤웚폖춬퇹폫죋솦놾뗄춶죫쏜쟐쿠맘ꆣ헢퇹ꎬ컒쏇뿉틔횪뗀ꎬ퓚뺭볃늨뚯뗄럅듳ퟷ폃훐ꎬ퓚싺ퟣ튻뚨쳵볾뗄잰쳡쿂ꎨ죧쪽ꎨ23ꎩ쯹쪾ꎩꎬ죋솦놾웰ퟅ훁맘훘튪뗄ퟷ폃ꆣ퓚뺭볃뺰웸뗄쪱뫲ꎬ닺돶믡쳡룟ꎬ죋솦놾뗄춶죫튲뻍믡쳡룟ꎬ듓뛸뷸튻늽쳡룟쇋짺닺뗄킧싊ꎬ퓶볓쇋뫳웚뗄닺돶ꆣ뛸퓚뺭볃쿴쳵뗄쪱뫲ꎬ닺돶쯵복ꎬ웳튵볒뗄쫕죫튲퓚쯵복ꎬ뛔죋솦놾뗄춶죫튲뻍컞램뗃떽놣횤ꎬ틲뛸짺닺뗄킧싊붫믡쿂붵ꎬ볠맜뗄돉놾뻍믡듳듳쳡룟ꎬ듓뛸뷸튻늽훆풼쇋쿂튻웚뗄닺돶ꎬ듓헢튻뗣살쮵ꎬ헢튻쒣탍펦룃쮵룼쓜쮵쏷쿖쪵뗄튻킩ힴ뿶ꆣ떱좻ꎬ헢샯뗄죋솦놾뗄춶죫펦ퟷ쿠뛔뇈뷏맣틥뗄샭뷢ꎬ늻뷶뷶쫇뷌폽ꎬ뛸뻍냼삨튻쟐룄짆짺닺킧싊뗄믮뚯ꆣ죴듓헢룶틢틥짏살뾴듽죋솦놾ꎬ퓲헢튻쒣탍뛔폚뺭볃늨뚯뗄뷢쫍쫇럇뎣폐솦뗄ꆣ 듓쿖쪵뗄쟩뿶살뾴ꎬ췹췹퓚뺭볃쿴쳵뗄쪱뫲ꎬ짺닺뗄킧싊뻍믡듳듳뗄붵뗍ꎬ뛸죋쏇좴뺭뎣뷶뷶냑헢튻쿖쿳뾴ퟷ쫇뺭볃ힴ뿶늻뫃뗄튻룶뇭쿖믲튻룶뷡맻ꎬ뛸늻 13
쫇냑쯼ퟷ캪볓뻧뺭볃쿴쳵뗄튻룶훘튪풭틲살뾴듽ꆣ쿠랴ꎬ떱튻룶뺭볃퓚웰뚯뗄쪱뫲ꎬ웤뫳웚뗄톸쯙랢햹좴췹췹쫇뾿죋솦놾뗄듳솦춶죫틔벰짺닺킧싊뗄룄짆살췆뚯ꎬ죧죕놾ꎬ쏀맺뚼쫇죧듋ꆣ 떱좻ꎬ 퓚Bernanke뫍Gertler뗄컄헂훐ꎬ튲쳡떽쇋웳튵볒ퟔ짭뗄킧싊뗄컊쳢ꎬ떫퓚웤쒣탍훐ꎬ웳튵볒뗄?싊w쫇ퟷ캪떥룶웳튵볒뗄췢짺룸뚨뗄틲쯘살돶쿖ꎬ퓚뷸탐짧믡닺돶뗄볓ퟜ쪱ꎬ헢튻틲쯘틑쪧좥쇋웤펰쿬짧믡닺돶뗄틢틥ꆣ퓚헢샯ꎬ쯼좴폫죋솦놾뗄춶죫쿠솪쾵ꎬ뛔닺돶폐ퟅ럇뎣훘튪뗄펰쿬ꆣ헢튻쒣탍뮹뿉틔퇓햹떽n웚ꎬ웤췆떼믹놾폫죽웚쒣탍컞뛠듳뗄쟸뇰ꎬ뛸뷡싛튲펦룃쫇튻훂뗄ꆣ 헢튻쒣탍튲듦퓚탭뛠뻖쿞뗄뗘랽ꎬ폐뫜뛠죔좻뿉틔짮죫쳖싛쿂좥뗄컊쳢쎻폐뷸탐쳖싛ꎬ죧퓚뿉틔뷸탐ꆰ뫏풼훘탂낲업ꆱ쪱ꎬ웳튵볒뗄ퟮ폅톡퓱컊쳢ꎬ퓚ꆰ죽ee웚쒣탍훐뾼싇캴살쫕죫쳹쿖ꆱ쪱k 폫h뗄뻟쳥쳦듺맘쾵ꎨreschedlingꎩ뗈ꆣ11춬쪱ꎬ헢훖짨뚨듺뇭뗤탍웳튵볒뗄랽램튲쫇맽폚샭쿫뮯뗄ꎬ늢쟒쎻폐뾼싇웳튵볒뿉틔쯦쪱뷸죫믲췋돶뗄쟩뿶ꆣ쇭췢ꎬ뛔폚죋솦놾뗄첽쳖ꎬ죴냑쯼ퟷ캪튻훖샛믽탔뗄춶죫뛸늻쫇튻듎탔뗄춶죫살볓틔뾼싇ꎬ튲벴뾼달죋솦놾뗄듦퓚솿뗄펰쿬ꎬ펦믡룼폐틢틥ꆣ ퟮ뫳ꎬ헢욪컄헂ퟔ쪼훁훕뚼쫇뒿샭싛뗄럖컶ꎬ뛸쎻폐쪵횤뗄볬퇩ꆣ헢폫컄헂뗄쒿뗄쫇쿠맘뗄ꎬ놾컄횻쫇쾣췻춨맽뛔쿖퓚튻냣뗄뷰죚볓쯙웷샭싛뗄쒣탍ퟷ튻킩탞헽ꎬ뛸뾼달죋솦놾뗄뷰죚퇓뗝믺훆훐뗄ퟷ폃ꆣ뛸뛔폚쪵횤뗄퇐뺿ꎬ뿉틔닎뾼Becker(1964ꆢ1974)퓚웤ꆶ죋솦놾ꆷ튻쫩훐뗄쿠맘싛쫶ꎬ떱좻튲탨튪뷸튻늽뗄뷸탐쪵횤뗄볬퇩ꆣ 닎뾼컄쿗: Gertler, Financial Capacity and Output Fluctuations in an Economy with Multi-Period Financial Relationships, Review of Economics Studies (1992)59, 455-472 Bernanke and Mark Gertler, Agency Costs, Net Worth, and Business Fluctuations, The American Economic Review, March, 1989, , ,14-31 S. Bernanke and Alan S. Blinder, Is It Money or Credit, or Both, or Neither? 14
Credit, Money, and Aggregate Demand, AEA Papers and Proceedings, May, 1988, , , 435-439 B. Long, Jr., and Charles I. Plosser, RealBusiness Cycles, Journal of Political Economy, 1983, , , 39-69 Bernanke , Mark Gertler, and Simon Gilchrist, The Financial Accelerator and The Flight Quality, NBER Working Paper Series , July, 1994 Bernanke , Mark Gertler, and Simon Gilchrist, The Financial Accelerator In a Quantitive Business Cycle Framework, NBER Working Paper Series , March, 1998 S. Becker, Human capital; a theoretical and empirical analysis, with special rdreference to education, 3, Chicago : The University of Chicago Press, 1993. 15
