Markets 市场
Investor Who Scored 900% Win in 2008
Crisis Has New Big Short Bet
曾在 2008 年⾦融危机中斩获 900%收益的投
资者⼜押注了⼀笔新的“⼤空头”交易
By Abhinav Ramnarayan, Tasos Vossos, and Liza Tetley
作者：阿⽐纳夫·拉姆纳拉扬、塔索斯·沃索斯和莉莎·特特利
June 24, 2026 at 6:31 PM GMT+8
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Takeaways by Bloomberg AI
彭博 AI 要点
Net notional bets on US insurers’ CDS have risen to $ billion by May 22 from less than $
billion at the end of last year, based on data by the Depository Trust and Clearing
Corp. Photographer: John Taggart/Bloomberg
根据美国存管信托与结算公司（Depository Trust and Clearing Corp.）的数据，截⾄ 5 ⽉ 22 ⽇，
美国保险公司信⽤违约互换（CDS）的净名义投注额已从去年年底的不到 49 亿美元升⾄ 55 亿美
元。摄影：约翰·塔加特/彭博社
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Hedge fund manager Lee Robinson notched a 900% gain during the
global financial crisis by turning a $20 million position into $200 million
with timely bets against the US subprime mortgage sector.
对冲基⾦经理李·罗宾逊在全球⾦融危机期间，通过及时做空美国次级抵押贷
款市场，将 2000 万美元的头⼨翻⾄ 2 亿美元，实现了 900%的收益。
Today, he sees a new opportunity as risks bubble up around private
credit. But instead of betting directly against the sector, he’s focused on
potential second-order effects and is shorting some of the $ trillion
market’s biggest backers: insurers.
如今，随着私募信贷领域风险⽇益凸显，他看到了新的机会。但他并未直接
做空该⾏业，⽽是将⽬光投向了潜在的次⽣影响，并做空了这个规模达
万亿美元的市场中的⼀些最⼤⽀持者：保险公司。
Robinson is ramping up bearish wagers on firms from Lincoln National
Corp. to MetLife Inc. and even Berkshire Hathaway Inc. through the use
of credit default swaps, derivative contracts designed to protect investors
against a default. His firm, Altana, is launching a new fund, into which it
is also investing its own capital, to protect against what he sees as an
inevitable downturn in private credit, a cooling-off in AI hype, and the
impact of declining liquidity on corporate valuations.
罗宾逊正通过信⽤违约互换（⼀种旨在保护投资者免受违约风险的衍⽣品合
约）加⼤对从林肯国民公司（Lincoln National Corp.）到⼤都会⼈寿保险公
司（MetLife Inc.），甚⾄伯克希尔·哈撒韦公司（Berkshire Hathaway
Inc.）等企业的看跌押注⼒度。 他的公司阿尔塔纳（Altana）正在推出⼀只
新基⾦，并投⼊⾃有资⾦，以防范他所预见的私募信贷不可避免的下滑、⼈
⼯智能热潮的降温，以及流动性下降对企业估值的影响。
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Lee Robinson Source: Atlanta Wealth
李·罗宾逊 来源：《亚特兰⼤财富》
He says there are parallels between the general calm that prevailed in the
subprime mortgage market before the blowup of Lehman Brothers
Holdings Inc. and markets today, where corporate yield premiums remain
at historically low levels. That investor confidence — or overconfidence, as
Robinson sees it — persists even as concerns simmer about private credit’s
exposure to software borrowers under threat from artificial intelligence,
and as warning signs flash from a couple of corporate blowups.
他表⽰，雷曼兄弟控股公司（Lehman Brothers Holdings Inc.）崩盘前次级
抵押贷款市场普遍保持的平静，与当前市场存在相似之处——当前市场中，企
业债券的收益率溢价仍处于历史低位。这种投资者信⼼——或者说，正如罗宾
逊所见，是过度⾃信——依然存在，尽管市场对私募信贷在受⼈⼯智能威胁的
软件⾏业借款⼈中的风险敞⼜存在隐忧，且已有⼏家企业破产事件发出了警
⽰信号。
“In August 2008, we were pulling our hair out, wondering how on earth
volatility is at this low level,” Robinson, founder and chief investment
officer for London-based Altana Wealth, said. “It feels a little like that
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now.”
“2008 年 8 ⽉，我们当时急得抓⽿挠腮，纳闷波动率怎么会低到这种程
度，”总部位于伦敦的 Altana Wealth 创始⼈兼⾸席投资官罗宾逊表⽰。“现
在的情况有点像当时那样。”
It’s not that insurers face an existential threat from their exposure.
Robinson’s argument is more nuanced: He believes markets aren’t
adequately pricing in the added risks of writedowns from an untested
corner of debt that has shown itself prone to trouble spots. Holdings of
private credit are rising in the industry, particularly among life insurers,
and while the debt is still a relatively small part of many established firms’
investments, it does present risks, he said. Another attraction of the trade
is that it isn’t easy to short private credit directly.
这并⾮意味着保险公司⾯临的敞⼜会对其⽣存构成威胁。罗宾逊的论点更为
细致：他认为，市场尚未充分计⼊来⾃债务领域中⼀个未经检验的⾓落所带
来的减值风险——该领域已显现出容易出现问题区域的倾向。他表⽰，整个⾏
业持有的私募信贷规模正在上升，特别是在⼈寿保险公司中；尽管这类债务
在许多⽼牌公司的投资中仍占⽐较⼩，但确实存在风险。 该交易策略的另⼀
⼤吸引⼒在于，直接做空私募信贷并⾮易事。
Lincoln National didn’t respond to a request for comment while a
spokesperson for Berkshire Hathaway declined to comment. A
spokesperson for MetLife pointed to recent comments by Chief Financial
Officer John McCallion that around 95% of its private debt portfolio is
investment grade, “well diversified and built to perform across market
cycles.”
林肯国民公司未回应置评请求，⽽伯克希尔·哈撒韦公司的⼀位发⾔⼈则拒绝
置评。⼤都会⼈寿的⼀位发⾔⼈援引⾸席财务官约翰·麦卡利昂（John
McCallion）最近的发⾔称，该公司约 95%的私募债务投资组合属于投资
级，且“分散程度⾼，旨在在各个市场周期中均能保持良好表现”。
Increased Activity 活动增加
Robinson’s gambit is starting to spread. Other hedge funds are targeting
insurers’ CDS, and Wall Street desks including JPMorgan Chase & Co. and
Goldman Sachs Group Inc. are also getting involved, responding to client
requests with products that provide protection against risks swirling
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around the industry, people familiar with the matter told Bloomberg.
罗宾逊的这⼀策略正开始蔓延。知情⼈⼠向彭博社透露，其他对冲基⾦也开
始将⽬光投向保险公司的信⽤违约互换（CDS），摩根⼤通和⾼盛集团等华
尔街交易部门也纷纷加⼊其中，针对客户的需求，推出了⼀系列能够抵御该
⾏业当前风险的产品。
Representatives for JPMorgan and Goldman declined to comment.
摩根⼤通和⾼盛的代表均拒绝置评。
Net notional bets on US insurers’ CDS have risen to $ billion by May 22
from less than $ billion at the end of last year, based on data by the
Depository Trust and Clearing Corp. Trading volumes in those contracts
has also seen an increase, and the price to buy default protection has
started to rise — though only marginally compared with the potential risks
involved, leaving room for further gains in the event of a true meltdown.
根据美国存管信托与结算公司（DTCC）的数据，截⾄ 5 ⽉ 22 ⽇，美国保险
公司信⽤违约互换（CDS）的净名义投注额已从去年年底的不到 49 亿美元
升⾄ 55 亿美元。这些合约的交易量也有所增加，购买违约保护的成本也开
始上升——尽管与潜在风险相⽐涨幅微乎其微，但在发⽣真正崩盘的情况下，
仍有进⼀步上涨的空间。
Trading Volumes on Insurers' Credit-Default Swaps Rise
保险公司信⽤违约互换的交易量上升
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Source: Bloomberg, DTCC 来源：彭博社、DTCC
Note: Volumes are understated as individual trades' size is capped at $5
million by DTCC; all series and maturities; 2Q 2026 data through June 19
注：交易量数据有所低估，因为 DTCC 对单笔交易规模设定了 500 万美元的
上限；涵盖所有系列和到期⽇；2026 年第⼆季度的数据截⾄ 6 ⽉ 19 ⽇。
Insurers’ exposure to the private credit industry has grown significantly
over the last decade as asset managers sought yield and diversification,
particularly during the easy-money era when traditional assets were
yielding close to zero. A Moody’s Ratings analysis of US life insurers
showed that a fifth of the sector’s $4 trillion of fixed-income holdings
were allocated to illiquid assets, mostly private credit, at the end of 2025,
up from 18% the year before.
过去⼗年间，随着资产管理公司寻求收益和资产配置多元化，尤其是当传统
资产收益率接近零的宽松货币政策时期，保险公司对私募信贷⾏业的风险敞
⼜显著扩⼤。 穆迪评级对美国⼈寿保险公司的⼀项分析显⽰，截⾄ 2025 年
底，该⾏业 4 万亿美元固定收益持仓中有五分之⼀配置于⾮流动性资产（主
要是私募信贷），较前⼀年的 18%有所上升。
The move to private credit has been particularly pronounced among the
life insurers owned by asset management giants with private equity arms
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such as KKR & Co. and Apollo Global Management Inc., according to
researchers at the Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago, though there is no
suggestion that Robinson and others have been targeting those firms in
particular. The shift has been primarily into investment grade-rated
private debt.
据芝加哥联邦储备银⾏的研究⼈员称，在由 KKR & Co.和 Apollo Global
Management Inc.等拥有私募股权业务部门的资产管理巨头控股的⼈寿保险
公司中，向私募信贷领域的转移尤为明显，尽管⽬前尚⽆迹象表明罗宾逊等
⼈特别针对这些公司。这⼀转变主要集中在投资级评级的私募债务上。
“Insurers have become intertwined with the broader private credit
ecosystem,” authors Ralf Meisenzahl, Jackson Overpeck and Andy Polacek
wrote in a working paper last revised in late April.
Representatives for Apollo and KKR declined to comment.
Some insurers have been vocal about their activity. Last year, Lincoln
Financial launched a fund with Bain Capital to “provide individual
investors access to private credit.” MetLife said it held about $85 billion of
what it deemed “high-quality” private fixed income as of March 31.
Read More: Private Credit Losses May Hit Insurers More Than Banks, ECB
Says
Already, the cost of protection against defaults by US insurance
heavyweights including American International Group Inc. has started to
rise, exceeding that of a broad gauge of North American high-grade risk
this year, based on data compiled by Bloomberg. That’s seen in widening
CDS spreads.
Some Insurance CDS Has Widened More Than General Index
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Source: Bloomberg, CMAQ
It’s a similar picture with European giants Allianz SE, Generali, Aviva Plc
and Axa SA compared to the region’s own high-grade credit-default swap
index. So much so, that it has caught the attention of the European
Central Bank, which sent out a warning about potential losses for
insurers.
An Allianz spokesperson cited an earnings presentation and analyst call in
which executives at the firm said they are comfortable with the private
debt exposure and that they have a “very high quality, diversified
portfolio.” Aviva declined to comment, while Axa and Generali didn’t
respond to a request for comment.
Read More: Private Credit Losses May Hit Insurers More Than Banks, ECB
Says
Even after some recent widening, CDS spreads in these companies are
still quite tight, limiting potential downside for investors. Lincoln
National, for example, was last quoted at 142 basis points. That reflects
some recent widening, but is miles away from where a truly troubled
company would trade, and on par with many of the world’s largest
companies.
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“There’s going to be more pain for private and institutional investors
going forward and insurance companies will probably have to partially
write down their investments,” said Mark Lieb, chief executive officer at
Spectrum Asset Management, who has been active in preferred securities
since the 1970s.
Connecticut-based Spectrum specializes in junior securities that
companies, including insurers, sell to pad their financial health, often at
the behest of regulators.
“The insurance side, we monitor that closely. Some insurance companies
have gotten a little more aggressive with their private placements,” Lieb
said. “We’ve made some internal changes on what we like and don’t like
in some of the names, so you have to be a little bit more vigilant of that
part of their portfolio.”
Distressed Debt Wagers
Robinson for his part is spreading his bets within his new fund, investing
in single-stock equity options in addition to insurance CDS. Robinson,
who previously worked for hedge fund billionaire Paul Tudor Jones, has a
track record with opportunistic and distressed debt wagers.
Back during the global financial crisis, Robinson allocated a small portion
of his funds into a bet against subprime mortgages, and by doing so he
generated an outsized profit. This successful bet helped propel his two
Trafalgar funds to gains of 5% and 26% respectively for the year 2008,
compared with an average decline of % for the wider hedge fund
industry.
Elsewhere, Robinson launched a digital currency fund in 2014 that has
gained significantly since inception, and made winning wagers on
Lebanese sovereign debt and Fannie Mae junior preferred securities. His
Credit Opportunities fund is up % year to date, and 416% since
inception in 2020. Meanwhile, one big bet he made related to Credit
Suisse remains unresolved; his funds own claims on Additional Tier 1
bonds wiped out with the bank’s collapse and takeover by Swiss peer
UBS. A lengthy legal battle is underway.
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Read more: Credit Suisse AT1 Bondholders Angle for Lehman-Style
Payouts
Regulators paved the way for private credit to balloon in size after the
global financial crisis, imposing onerous requirements for traditional
lenders that prompted banks to retreat from some of the riskier, more
capital-intensive parts of their business. This created a gap that private
credit firms pounced on. Insurers needing to match assets with liabilities
were ready buyers of the assets.
While the reasons for the shift may be understandable, it poses
complexity and concentration risks, Moody’s Ratings analysts led by
Manoj Jethani said in a note this month. “Risks are emerging —
particularly in middle-market direct lending — driven by weaker credit
quality and rising borrower stress,” they said.
All it would take now, Robinson says, is one stressed insurer — “any single
blow-up” — to cause ripples throughout the industry.
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