ֻ30जֻ10௹ሧ ჷ ॓ ࿐,୍10ᄅRESOURCESSCIENCEOctober,2008໓ᅣщݼ:1007-7588(2008)10-1471-07ࠎႿڵᄛᆷඔ֥ᇏݓඣሧჷࠩੀთٳषؿమ৯ࡎ张 丹1,2,封志明1,2,刘登伟3(1 中国科学院地理科学与资源研究所,北京100101; 2 中国科学院研究生院,北京100049;3 水利部发展研究中心,北京100038) ᅋ ေ:本文厘定了基于流域尺度的水资源负载指数概念,以!中国水资源分区∀为基础,采用ARC INFO软件,统计分析了一级a二级和三级流域分区的水资源负载指数,定量揭示了中国不同地区的水资源利用程度与开发潜力b研究结果表明:整体而言,全国水资源负载指数属于#级水平,水资源利用程度中等,开发潜力较大;从一级流域分区a二级流域分区到三级流域分区,负载指数空间分布逐步细化,开发潜力低的地区范围从黄淮海地区逐渐向松辽河流域和西北地区扩展;三级流域分区尺度,全国71 4%地区水资源开发利用程度低,开发潜力大,居住着全国33 2%的人口,而45 9%以上的人口聚集在水资源利用程度较高a潜力有限的15 4%的土地上;十大流域负载指数地域差异明显,淮河a海河流域85%以上a黄河流域60%的地区属于低水平开发潜力,西南诸河流域全部属于高水平开发潜力,其中,珠江三角洲和长江太湖水系开发潜力有限b ܱՍ:水资源;负载指数;开发潜力;流域;中国1 ႄთԄ؇֥ඣሧჷڵᄛᆷඔ;ѩٳљՖ၂ࠩaؽࠩaඣሧჷڵᄛᆷඔіղ֥൞၂קთଽඣሧჷაࠩੀთٳؓඣሧჷڵᄛᆷඔ֥ॢࡗٳ҃ܿੰࣉྛದ१ބࣜ࠶ؿᅚᆭࡗ֥ܱ༢ٳ༅,༢ࡎਔᇏݓ҂ֹඣሧჷ০Ⴈӱ؇ა,ّ႘ਔთඣሧჷ০Ⴈӱ؇აषؿమ৯b࣍10୍ট,ඣሧჷڵᄛᆷඔᄝषؿమ৯,קਈࢣൕਔᇏݓ҂ֹ֥ದ१∃ࣜ࠶ݓଽྖఏ,ᄝݬੀთඣሧჷषؿ֥ඣߌིႋܿଆაඣሧჷ֥ޙܱ༢,൫ູླྀטֹದ१აࡎބთളߌᇉਈࡎᇏ֤֞ႋႨ[1~3]ඣሧჷܱ༢a՜ࣉთದ१აሧჷߌླྀטؿᅚิ;ൈ܂॓࿐၇ऌބथҦᆦӻb,ඣሧჷڵᄛᆷඔቔູඣሧჷࠎԤሑঃٳ༅ބषؿమ৯ࡎ֥ᇗေᆷѓ,ܼٗႋႨᄝთඣሧჷކ2 ࣮ٚمაඔऌটჷषؿaඣሧჷॖӻ࿃ྟࡎaඣሧჷӵᄛ৯ࡎ֩2 1 ඣሧჷڵᄛᆷඔ֥ۀࠣଽݤ࣮ᇏ,࣮ٓຶടࠣെရފੀთaཅaν൧aඣሧჷڵᄛᆷඔ֥࣮ᄝۄݬބ϶ۄݬֹ؟ܱᇏֹaࣘࣃ࠰ֹ֩[4~8]bಖط,ଢభ֥࣮؟০Ⴈთࢆඣaದ१ބ୪ြܹۃ૫ࠒᆃ3۱ඔऌაअཋᄝᇏཬԄ؇ۄݬ϶ۄݬֹࠇಌඣӬ൧,ᄝಆඣሧჷਈᆴࡗ֥ܱ༢,ّ႘ඣሧჷ֥০Ⴈӱ؇ࠣݓԄ؇ഈඣሧჷषؿమ৯֥ࡎѩໃടࠣb؎ࣂުඣሧჷषؿ֥ၞӱ؇[2~7],ᄝࣜ࠶ؿᅚॹ൳ݓࡅದ१ބ࠹߃ളტჴ߶֥ກ,ज़ีቆֹೂࣘࣃ࠰ֹᄵҐႨݓଽളӁሹᆴูս୪ြषᅚਔᇏݓࠎႿದඣܱ༢֥ඣሧჷӵᄛ৯࣮۽ܹۃ૫ࠒ[8]bЧ࣮ᇏ,ᄝಆݓඣሧჷषؿమ৯ቔbთඣሧჷषؿ০Ⴈགྷሑაषؿమ৯ࡎ,൞ࡎ֥ޡܴԄ؇༯,۲۱ֹ֥ࣜ࠶ؿᅚଆൔҵၳޓඣሧჷӵᄛ৯࣮֥ࠎԤଽಸᆭ၂,࣮࿊౼ඣሧն,୪ြܹۃႨඣѩ҂ିປಆّ႘ֹඣሧჷ֥ൌჷڵᄛᆷඔቔູඣሧჷࠎԤሑঃބषؿమ৯ࡎᇏ࠽০Ⴈ౦ঃbၹՎ,࿊קݓଽളӁሹᆴูս୪ြܹ၂۱ᇗေ֥ᆷѓb࣮ಒ৫ਔࠎႿੀთԄ؇֥ඣሧۃ૫ࠒ,ࡼඣሧჷڵᄛᆷඔקၬّູ႘თֆ໊ඣჷڵᄛᆷඔ֥קၬࠣః࠹ෘ܄ൔ,০ႨARC INFOሧჷڵᄛֹ֥ದ१-ࣜ࠶ܿଆ֥၂۱ॖၛޘཟؓೈࡱ,۴ऌ!ᇏݓඣሧჷٳ∀࠹ෘิ౼ᇏݓ҂ੀб֥ਈ۔ᆴ,ః࠹ෘ܄ൔ:ູ൬۠ರ௹:2008-03-25;ྩרರ௹:2008-06-17ࠎࣁཛଢ:ᇏݓ॓࿐ჽᆩ്Էྍ۽ӱᇗေٚཟཛଢ: ᇏݓॖӻ࿃ؿᅚᅞሸކ࣮ (щݼ:KZCX2 YW 323)bቔᆀࡥࢺ:ᅦօ,୯,ୡഫဝದ,Ѱൖള,Ֆ൙ሧჷषؿათؿᅚ࣮bE mail:@๙ቔᆀ:ٿᆽૼ,E mail:Fengzm@
1472ሧ ჷ ॓ ࿐ֻ30जֻ10௹C=KP%G W(1ᄝARC MAP༯࿊౼IDWaUniversalKrigingބco )ൔᇏ:Cູඣሧჷڵᄛᆷඔ;Pູದ१ඔਈ4(&10Kriging3ᇕٚمࣉྛҬᆴࣚ؇бࢠ[9~14];ࢲݔіૼದಆݓԄ؇༯,ॉ੮ۚӱ֥co KrigingٚمҬᆴࣚ؇ቋ);GູGDPݓଽളӁሹᆴ8(&10ჭ);Wູඣሧჷਈ8,(&10m3);KູაࢆඣႵܱ֥༢ඔbۚ,नཌྷؓ༂ҵ(MRE)ູ14 6%;ሇߐ႕ٚൔ1 0R∋200ದ१ᅅ۬ඔऌ,֤֞ಆݓ؟୍नࢆඣਈᅅ۬ඔऌ1 0-0 1(R-200) 200200<R∋400(R)b۴ऌ܄ൔ(2)ሇ߄ູKᆴ֥ᅅ۬ඔऌ,၇ऌඣK=0 9-0 2ሧჷٳ൏ਈ,ࣉྛZonalStatistics,৽ࢤі֤۬֞(R-400) 400400<R∋8000 7-0 2(R-800۲ࠩੀთԄ؇֥KᆴඔऌҪb) 800800<R∋16000 5R>16002 3 3 GDP和人口(G和P)的提取 ၇ऌඣሧჷٳ൏ਈ,ࡼಆݓGDPބದ१ᅅ۬ඔऌࣉྛZonal(2)ൔᇏRູࢆඣਈ(mmStatistics,ሇߐֆູ໊ၡჭބຣದ,৽ࢤі֤۬֞۲)bಆݓԄ؇ඣሧჷڵᄛᆷඔٳࠩࡎѓሙіࠩੀთԄ؇֥GDPބದ१ඔऌҪb[4,5,8]1b2 3 4 水资源负载指数(C)的提取 ၇ऌඣሧჷі1 ඣሧჷڵᄛᆷඔٳࠩࡎٳ൏ਈ,ࡼഈඍඔऌٳљοᅶ܄ൔ(1)ࣉྛᄎTable1 Evaluationclassificationforcarryingindexofwaterresourceෘ,֤֞ࠎႿ၂ࠩaؽࠩaࠩੀთԄ؇֥ඣሧჷڵࠩљCᆴඣሧჷ০Ⴈӱ؇ࠣषؿమ৯ࣂުඣሧჷࣉ၂҄षؿࡎᄛᆷඔb(>10ޓۚ,మ৯ޓཬ࡛ऍaႵ่ࡱൈླေຓੀთטඣ3 ᇏݓඣሧჷڵᄛᆷඔ֥ॢࡗٳ҃ܿ)5~10ۚ,మ৯ཬषؿ่ࡱޓੰࠣఃหᆘ#2~5ᇏ֩,మ৯ࢠնषؿ่ࡱᇏ֤֩֞ࠎႿ!ᇏݓඣሧჷٳ∀၂ࠩaؽࠩaࠩੀ∗1~2ࢠ֮,మ৯նषؿ่ࡱࢠಸၞთٳ֥ඣሧჷڵᄛᆷඔ(1,ࣁઔໃ࠹ೆ+<1֮,మ৯ޓնྖྩᇏཬ۽ӱ,षؿಸၞ࠹)bᆜุطݓඣሧჷڵᄛᆷඔູ3 1,උႿ#2 2 ඔऌটჷࠩඣ,ඣሧჷ০Ⴈӱ؇ᇏ,֩षؿమ৯ࢠն;ॢࡗႨ֥ඔऌЇও:1956୍~2000୍ಆݓ660۱ٳ҃ഈಆݓඣሧჷڵᄛᆷඔ֮ۚཌྷҵ࿇൹,ֹთҵᅟׄ࠹30୍ၛഈᄅࢆඣਈ࠹ඔऌ(mm)ބ۲ᅟၳૼཁ;Ֆ၂ࠩ֞ࠩੀთԄ؇,ඣሧჷڵᄛᆷඔॢׄۚӱඔऌ(m);1956୍~2000୍ࠎႿඣሧჷ၂ࠩaࡗٳ҃ᇯࡶ༥߄,ඣሧჷषؿమ৯ֹ֥֮ٓຶՖؽࠩaࠩੀთٳ֥؟୍नඣሧჷਈ࠹ඔऌߛ߉ݚֹᇯࡶཟފੀთބ༆Кֹঔᅚb8(&10m3),ඔऌটჷႿݓࡅగའअb2000୍ಆݓ3 1 !ᇏݓඣሧჷٳ∀၂ࠩٳඣሧჷڵᄛᆷඔGD4P1km&1kmᅅ۬ඔऌ(&10ჭ km2)a2000୍ಆႮ1ॖၛुԛ,ಆݓնੀთඣሧჷ০Ⴈӱݓದ१1km&1kmᅅ۬ඔऌ(ದ km2),ඔऌটჷႿ؇ቋۚaषؿమ৯ቋཬ֥൞ݚފੀთބ߉ފੀთ,ڵᇏݓ॓࿐ჽሧჷߌ॓࿐ඔऌᇏྏ,႕ٚൔҐႨᄛᆷඔۚղ20 6ބ12 5,උႿ(ࠩඣ;ߛފੀთALBERS֩ࠒჵሓ႕(Krasovsky-1940-Albers)bಆބފੀთ໊ंֻބֻඹ໊,උႿ)ࠩඣbഈݓ၂ࠩaؽࠩaࠩੀთٳ༢!ᇏݓඣሧჷٳ∀ඍ4۱ੀთ,૫ࠒᅝಆݓ֥18 6%,ؓႋದ१ᅝಆݓ൏ਈ߄,ჰඔऌটჷႿݓࡅඣ০҆b֥39 1%,ղ֞ਔ84 9&10ದ,ದඣܱ༢ࣅᅦ,Ⴍః2 3 ิ౼ٚم൞ߛ߉ݚֹb2 3 1 水资源量(W)的提取 ᄝARC MAP༯ࣉྛඣሧჷ০Ⴈӱ؇ቋ֮aषؿమ৯ቋն֥൞༆ଲ!ᇏݓඣሧჷٳ∀൏ਈ߄ԩ,Їওሙaקၬᇭފੀთބᇨࡾੀთ,ڵᄛᆷඔᆺႵ0 1ބ1 0,උ႕ቕѓaඔሳ߄֩҄ᇧ,֤֞ಆݓ၂ࠩaؽࠩaࠩੀႿ+ࠩඣ;ఃՑ൞༆Кᇭފੀთ,උႿ∗ࠩඣbთٳ൏ਈ;ࡼ1956୍~2000୍۲ࠩੀთԄ؇֥ᆃֹུႭః༆Кᇭފੀთ,ֹܼದ༎,ඣሧჷཌྷؓ؟୍नඣሧჷਈ࠹ඔऌ,৽ࢤ֞ؓႋԄ؇ٳپڶ,ೂޅކֹषؿ০ႨඣሧჷၘӮູ֒ༀᆭࠤb,֤֞၂ࠩaؽࠩaࠩੀთԄ؇֥ඣሧჷਈҪbնੀთ෮උࡎࠩљࠣఃؓႋֹ֥૫ࠒaದ१2 3 2 与降水有关的系数(K)的提取 ࡼಆݓ660ඔਈб২བྷі2b۱ᅟ֥ׄ؟୍नᄅࢆඣਈඔऌ߸ሹ୍ູࢆඣਈ,
ֻ30जֻ10௹ᅦ օ֩:ࠎႿڵᄛᆷඔ֥ᇏݓඣሧჷࠩੀთٳषؿమ৯ࡎ1473і2 ၂ࠩੀთٳඣሧჷڵᄛᆷඔࡎࢲݔაหᆘ࠹උႿ∗ࠩބ+ࠩඣ,ඣሧჷषؿమ৯ն,ದ१ჿTable2 Evaluationresultofcarryingindexofwater84 5&10;16 4%ֹ֥උႿ(ࠩބ)ࠩඣ,ದ१resourceinone orderbasinჿ85 9&10bੀთದ१б২(%)૫ࠒб২(%)Cᆴࠩљषؿమ৯ࡾՖնੀთ౦ঃট,ुݚފa߉ފੀთ(ֹࠩ4 49 92 2#మ৯ࢠնފ3 93 35 2)మ৯ཬٳљᅝಆੀთ֥83 0%ބ90 8%,ؓႋದ१92 5%ݚފ10 43 420 6(మ৯ޓཬބ93 6%,҂թᄝ∗ࠩa+ࠩඣֹ,ੀთඣሧჷߛފ8 78 49 0)మ৯ཬ߉ފषؿ০Ⴈӱ؇ၘ࣍ႿЎބሑ,ದ१ۚ؇ࠢᇏ,ໃ16 13 512 5(మ৯ޓཬӉࡾ34 418 81 8∗మ৯նটᆺିौॴੀთטඣ֩ٚൔߏࢳbߛފੀთྙ൝҂תଲᇭފ5 52 21 6∗మ৯նಸুܴ,ಆੀთෙಖႵ52 5%૫ࠒֹ֥උႿ(ࠩᇨࡾ12 86 11 0+మ৯ޓն༆ଲᇭފ1 68 90 1+మ৯ޓնඣ,ؓႋದ१ղ֞85 8%,ದ१ۚ؇ࠢᇏᄝඣ༆Кᇭފ2 235 51 1∗మ৯նሧჷ০Ⴈӱ؇ޓֹ֥ۚ,ൈᆺႵ0 8%֥ದ१ಆݓ100 0100 03 1#మ৯ࢠնളࠃᄝᅝಆੀთ22 0%aඋႿ+ࠩඣֹ֥ഈ,3 2 !ᇏݓඣሧჷٳ∀ؽࠩٳඣሧჷڵᄛᆷඔᆃֹུЇওߛފଽੀaရ༬ၛഈਆ۱ؽࠩੀႮ2ᆩ,ؽࠩੀთٳԄ؇,ಆݓ79۱ؽࠩთb༆ଲᇭފੀთඣሧჷषؿమ৯ऍն,ಆनੀთٳ(ࣁઔໃ࠹ೆ࠹)ඣሧჷषؿమ৯ॢඋႿ+ࠩඣbᇨࡾaתଲᇭފੀთaӉࡾੀთྙ൝ࡗٳ҃ሑঃࣉ၂҄༥߄:ඣሧჷ০Ⴈӱ؇ۚaषؿమࢠু,ܴಆनᄝ#ࠩၛഈඣ(ݣ)bᆴ֤ඪૼ֥৯ཬֹ֥ᇶေࠢᇏᄝߛފa߉ފaݚފ֩ੀთbඣ൞,༆КᇭފੀთԢෳଡފۄੀຓ,नԩႿ#ࠩၛሧჷ০Ⴈӱ؇֮aषؿమ৯նֹ֥ᇶေࠢᇏᄝ༆ഈඣ(ݣ),ࣜ࠶ؿᅚᇶေ౼थႿໃটඣሧჷ֥ކଲᇭފੀთބᇨࡾੀთ,ၛࠣࡾੀთ֥шֹषؿbފੀთaࡾੀთषؿమ৯ᇏ,֩ၛ#ބ༆Кᇭފੀთ֥҆ٳֹbࠩඣֹं؟bᇏݓࠎႿؽࠩੀთٳ֥ඣሧჷՖі2֥࠹ࢲݔु,ᅝಆݓ૫ࠒ65 6%ֹ֥ڵᄛᆷඔࡎࢲݔބหᆘ࠹і3b
1474ሧ ჷ ॓ ࿐ֻ30जֻ10௹
ֻ30जֻ10௹ᅦ օ֩:ࠎႿڵᄛᆷඔ֥ᇏݓඣሧჷࠩੀთٳषؿమ৯ࡎ1475і3 ؽࠩੀთٳඣሧჷڵᄛᆷඔࡎࢲݔაหᆘ࠹Table3 Evaluationresultofcarryingindexofwaterresourceintwo orderbasin(%)ੀთ()#∗+۱ඔ૫ࠒದ१۱ඔ૫ࠒದ१۱ඔ૫ࠒದ१۱ඔ૫ࠒದ१۱ඔ૫ࠒದ१ࡾ00018 125 1252 461 616 35 9433 37 4ފ19 227 6337 252 3143 813 500019 96 6ݚފ383 092 5117 07 5000000000ߛފ452 585 8114 06 7111 56 7000222 00 8߉ފ490 893 600019 26 4000000Ӊࡾ12 011 114 811 0323 026 0434 538 7335 713 3תଲᇭފ000000221 033 9241 846 4237 219 7ᇨࡾ00000014 611 8331 739 3663 848 9༆ଲᇭފ0000000000006100100༆Кᇭފ11 11 1000214 228 2332 154 4852 616 3ಆݓ1411 638 274 88 41318 017 91321 221 53244 414 03 3 !ᇏݓඣሧჷٳ∀ࠩٳඣሧჷڵᄛᆷඔಕ֛ໃ࠹ೆ࠹):,ݚފੀთଽ҆ԛགྷ#ֹࠩႮ3ॖᆩ,ࠩੀთٳԄ؇,ಆݓඣሧჷष,ᇶေ൞ފ,૫ࠒᅝಆੀთ֥13 8%;(ࠩؿమ৯ᆜุඣႵ෮ิ:ۚ(ࠩඣֹཌྷؓႿؽֹࡨഒᇀಆੀთ֥63 8%,ದ१ࡨഒᇀಆੀთ֥ࠩੀთٳԄ؇ࡨഒᇀಆݓ֥8 3%,ದ१ࡨഒᇀ85 8%;−߉ފੀთ)a#ֹࠩႵ෮ᄹࡆ,(ֹࠩ83 9&10;ط+ࠩඣֹႵ෮ᄹࡆ,૫ࠒᄹᇀಆݓ૫ࠒࡨഒᇀಆੀთ֥57 4%,ದ१ࡨഒᇀ֥57 4%,ದ१ᄹᇀ82 6&10b)ࠩa#ࠩඣֹ63 1%;.ߛފੀთ)ࠩඣֹᄹࡆ,(ֹࠩ૫ᄹࡆ,∗ࠩඣֹࡨഒbࠒࡨഒᇀ36 6%,ದ१ಯᅝ֞70 8%;/ފaᇏݓ҂ֹ֥ඣሧჷ০Ⴈӱ؇აषؿమ৯۬ࡾੀთଽ҆ٳ߄ૼཁ,#ࠩၛ༯ඣֹ֥ڜԛअીႵڿэ:ಆݓ71 4%ֹඣሧჷषؿమ৯ն,ඣ૫,ࡾaתފaࠀފaתКခߛѺݚᇭފ֩ंᇾሢ33 2%֥ದ१,ط45 9%֥ದ१ऊࠢᄝඣሧࠩ০Ⴈӱ؇ۚaषؿమ৯ޓཬ,ᄝ ᆒྖתК ᆟჷषؿమ৯Ⴕཋ֥15 4%ֹ֥ഈbಆݓ҂ֹҦ༯ႋљؓր;0ඣሧჷپڶ֥Ӊࡾੀთaᇨࡾੀඣሧჷڵᄛᆷඔؓႋֹ૫ࠒაದ१ٳ҃4bთଽ҆҆ٳ္ֹ૫ਢາࠏ,ೂඣ༢a१ၛ༯ۄੀaᚻࡾaᇨࡾ࢘ᇝ֩;ᆃֹུ૫ࠒෙಖٳљࣇᅝ۲ሱಆੀთ૫ࠒ֥5 4%ބ2 9%,ؓႋದ१ٳљᅝ֞ಆੀთ֥20 0%ބ9 9%,ඣሧჷषؿႋھՖԮ֥षؿྙൔሇཟ٤Ԯ֥षؿྙൔ,ೂࡆնޠ֥০Ⴈaݚඣ֎߄aඣ߭൬০Ⴈ֩;1༆КᇭފੀთԢෳଡފۄੀ,96%૫ࠒֹ֥,ႮႿֹܼದ༎aࣜ࠶ఴؿղ֩ჰၹ,ಯඋႿ#ࠩၛഈඣ(ݣ);2תଲᇭފੀთଽ҆ໃԛགྷ(ࠩa)ࠩඣֹ,༆ଲᇭފੀთಯಆ҆ԩႿषؿమ৯ޓն֥+ࠩ4 ҂ඣሧჷڵᄛᆷඔֹ૫ࠒაದ१ٳ҃ඣbᇏݓࠎႿࠩੀთٳ֥ඣሧჷڵᄛᆷඔFig 4 Thedistributionoflandareasandpopulationࡎࢲݔބหᆘ࠹і4batdifferentcarryingindexofwaterresourceՖնੀთ౦ঃট,ुੀთଽ҆ඣሧჷषؿమ4 ᇶေࢲં৯ࣉ၂҄༥߄,ཌྷбႿؽࠩੀთԄ؇नႵ҂ӱ؇(1)ᆜุط,ಆݓඣሧჷڵᄛᆷඔඋႿ#ࠩඣ֥ิۚ,ඣሧჷ০Ⴈӱ؇ᇏ,֩ໃটषؿమ৯ࢠնbն(܋209۱ࠩ,ࣁઔaཐۖaϏaᇚੀთᇏ,ඣሧჷषؿమ৯ቋཬ֥൞ݚފੀთބ߉ފ
1476ሧ ჷ ॓ ࿐ֻ30जֻ10௹ і4 ࠩੀთٳඣሧჷڵᄛᆷඔࡎࢲݔაหᆘ࠹Table4 Evaluationresultofcarryingindexofwaterresourceinthree orderbasin(%)ੀთ()#∗+۱ඔ૫ࠒದ१۱ඔ૫ࠒದ१۱ඔ૫ࠒದ१۱ඔ૫ࠒದ१۱ඔ૫ࠒದ१ࡾ13 419 513 210 1220 729 9419 619 11053 121 3ފ13 613 7532 255 2341 922 2112 42 329 96 6ݚފ1163 585 8322 710 7113 83 5000000ߛފ1436 670 8722 819 2312 56 2000528 13 8߉ފ757 463 1630 730212 06 9000000Ӊࡾ41 611 033 88 91018 331 6821 625 32054 723 1תଲᇭފ000000438 564 319 06 8452 529 0ᇨࡾ00012 99 935 112 9214 216 51377 760 6༆ଲᇭފ00000000000014100100༆Кᇭފ11 01 113 08 959 233 4818 426 61868 430 0ಆݓ398 330 8277 115 13313 220 92414 012 68657 420 6ੀთ,උႿ(ࠩඣ;षؿమ৯ቋն֥൞༆ଲᇭފੀള࿐Б,2004,24(11):2509~2515.[SONGSong bai,CAIთބᇨࡾੀთ,උႿ+ࠩඣ;༆КᇭފੀთaתଲHuan ᇭފੀთaӉࡾੀთඋႿ∗ࠩඣ,षؿమ৯benvironmentinaridarea[J].ActaEcologicaSinica,2004,24(11):2509~2515 ](2)Ֆ၂ࠩaؽࠩ֞ࠩੀთٳԄ؇,ڵᄛᆷ[4] ࢀקള,ٓྖ॓,ྷ࿐࿊,֩.ંν൧ࢆඣሧჷ֥మ৯აۚඔॢࡗٳ҃ᇯ҄༥߄ི০Ⴈଆൔ[J].ඣЌӻ࣮,2000,79(2):58~69.[JIANG,֮षؿమ৯ֹႮߛ߉ފֹཟੀთބ༆КֹഥbࠩੀთٳԄDing sheng,FANXing ke,XUXue xuan, ancityand؇,ಆݓ71 4%૫ࠒֹ֥උႿ∗ࠩބ+ࠩඣ,itsefficiencyusemodels[J].ResearchofSoilandWaterཌྷႋದ१84 2&10,ᅝಆݓ֥33 2%,ඣሧჷषؿ০Conservation,2000,7(2):58~69.]Ⴈӱ؇[5] ൎ,ӧᅸپ,ྗնຳ,֩.ܱᇏֹඣሧჷކषؿ০Ⴈაള,֮षؿమ৯ն;15 4%ֹ֥උႿ(ࠩބ)ߌЌ[M].ᆢᇜ:ߛފඣ০ԛϱഠ,2002.[SHIJian,ࠩඣ,ཌྷႋದ१85 8&10,ᅝಆݓ֥45 9%bCHENZhao feng,XINGDa wei,(3)նੀთଽ҆ඣሧჷ০Ⴈӱ؇აषؿమ৯ֹ֥თҵၳཁᇷ:ݚފੀთa߉ފੀთ85%ၛഈaߛinGuan zhongRegion[M].Zhengzhou:YellowRiverWaterConservancy,2002.]ފੀთ60%ֹ֥උႿ(ࠩބ)ࠩඣ,ඣሧჷष[6] ༱ࡹݓ.ඹԫ୪ြඣሧჷࡎࠣႪ߄ᇂ࣮Ѱൖં໓[D].ؿమ৯;֮Ӊࡾੀთ֥ඣ༢ބᇨࡾੀთ֥ᇨࡾᇗ౩:༆ଲ୪ြն࿐,2005.[XIAJian ࢘ᇝֹ֩උႿ)ࠩඣ,ఃֹनඋႿ#ࠩandOptimalAllocationofAgriculturalWaterResourcesinSichuanࠣၛഈ֥ۚඣषؿమ৯;༆Кᇭފੀთ86%aתProvince[D].Chongqing:SouthwestAgriculturalUniversity,2005.][7] ӱܭ઼,ޅൖ.თඣሧჷॖӻ࿃০Ⴈࡎ[J].ඣ໓,2006,ଲᇭފੀთ62%ֹ֥උႿۚඣषؿమ৯;༆ଲ26(5):20~24.[CHENGGuai mei,HEShi ᇭފੀთಆ҆ԩႿषؿమ৯ቋն֥+ࠩඣbsustainableutilizationofregionalwaterresources[J].JournalofChinaHydrology,2006,26(5):20~24.]ҕॉ໓ང (References):[8] ٿᆽૼ,ਾ֨.ࣘࣃ࠰ֹඣሧჷ܂ླޙࠣఃඣሧჷӵᄛ৯[J].ሱಖሧჷ࿐Б,2006,21(5):689~699.[FENGZhi ming,[1] ഽဎ,ूകᇑ,ࡥဇޣ.ۄݬଽފੀთඣሧჷषؿؓඣLIUDeng ߌིႋ֥ࡎᆷѓุ༢ഡ࠹[J].ඣЌӻ๙Б,2003,23JingjinjiRegion[J].JournalofNaturalResources,2006,21(5):689(3):24~27.[SHIYan wu,KANGShao zhong,JIANYan hong.~699.]Designingofindicatorsystemassessmentofwater soilenvironmental[9] ਾ֨,ٿᆽૼ,ဗဇᅲ.ݚފੀთࢆඣॢࡗҬᆴٚم֥࿊౼effectonwaterresourcesdevelopmentincontinentalriverbasininarid[J].ֹ౯ྐ༏॓࿐,2006,8(4):75~79,83.[LIUDeng wei,areas[J].BulletinofSoilandWaterConservation,2003,23(3):24FENGZhi ming,YANGYan ~27.]techniquesofbattlefieldsituationevolutionandvariationbasedonGIS[2] ഽဎ.ݬੀთඣሧჷषؿ֥ඣߌིႋٳ༅ࠣሸކanditsapplication[J].Geo informationScience,2006,8(4):75~ܙ࣮[D].༆ν:༆К୪ਟ॓ն࿐,2003.[SHIYan ,83.]StudyofWater SoilEnvironmentalEffectAnalysisandAssessmenton[10] ਾቭᵣ,ঠ۬ႇ,ӧჭᄹ,֩.઼ࡾފੀთ୍नࢆਈॢࡗҬᆴWaterResourcesDevelopmentinInlandRiverbasininAridAreaٚم࣮[J].ಣջሧჷაߌ࿐Б,2007,2(3):29~34.[[D].Xi an:NorthwestSci TechUniversityofAgricultureandLIUYin wen,LAIGe ying,CHENYuan zeng,,2003.]rainfallspatialinterpolationmethodsbasedonGIS[J].Journalof[3] සϣ,ғߕࢭ.ݬളߌᇉਈ֥ሸކקਈࡎଆ[J].SubtropicalResourcesandEnvironment,2007,2(3):29~34.]
ֻ30जֻ10௹ᅦ օ֩:ࠎႿڵᄛᆷඔ֥ᇏݓඣሧჷࠩੀთٳषؿమ৯ࡎ1477[11] െழ,Ᏽٙ.ࢆॢࡗҬᆴٚم֥бࢠაڿࣉ[J].ފݚն࿐[13] ,,,࿐Б(ሱಖ॓࿐ϱ),2005,33(4):361~365.[SHIPeng,RUIcomparisonoftwostatisticalmethodsforspatialinterpolationofXiao [J].AgriculturalandForestinterpolationmethods[J].JournalofHohaiUniversity(NaturalMeteorology,2000,101:81~94 Sciences),2005,33(4):361~365.][14] ޠ.Њϰܻඨဢ่Ҭᆴაᇏݓగީॢࡗଆ[J].ֹ॓࿐,[12] ,,, resolutionstudiesof2004,24(2):163~169.[):interpolationofrainfalldata[J].climateinChinausingthinplatesmoothingsplineinterpolation[J].JournalofHydrology,1998,208:187~,2004,24(2):163~169.]EvaluationofWaterResourceinThird OrderBasinsinChinabasedonCarryingCapacityZHANGD1,2an,FENGZhi m1ing,LIUDeng w3ei(1 InstituteofGeographicSciencesandNaturalResourcesResearch,ChineseAcademyofSciences,Beijing100101,China;2 GraduateUniversityoftheChineseAcademyofSciences,Beijing100049,China;3 DevelopmentResearchCenter,MinistryofWaterResources,Beijing100038,China)Abstract:Basedonthedefinitionofwaterresourcecarryingcapacityindex,accordingtotheWaterResourcePartitionmapofChina,andusingARC INFOsoftware,thispapercalculatesandanalyzesthecarryingcapacityoffirst order,second orderandthird orderbasinsinChina,,thecarryingcapacityindexforChina swaterresourcesbelongstogradeIII,,withtheareaswithlowwaterresourceexploitationpotentialmainlylocatedintheHuang Huai HaiBasin,Song orderbasinscale,theHaiandHuairiverbasinshavethelowestexploitationpotentialandbelongtogradeI, orderbasins,thelandareawithhighexploitationpotentialarea(gradesIVandV)%ofChina stotallandarea,with420millionpeople,%(gradesIandII)%ofthetotal,butthereare580millionpeoplelivingthere,% thirdofallpeoplelivinginregionswithhighexploitationpotential,whichconstitutetwo thirdsoftotallandarea,andmorethantwo fifthsofpeoplelivinginareaswithlowexploitationpotentialareawhichmakeupone sixthoftotalarea,itcanbeconcludedthatthedistributionofpopulationisnotwell %oflandareaintheHaiandHuaiRiverBasinsand60%oflandareaintheYellowRiverBasinhaslowexploitationpotential(gradeIandII),andabout40%,,86%oftheNorthwestRiverBasinand62%(gradeV).Keywords:Waterresources;Carryingcapacityindex;ExploitationPotential;Riverbasins;China
