Economics 经济学
Inflation Looms as China’s Exporters
Boost Prices on Iran Costs
随着中国出⼝商因伊朗相关成本上涨⽽提价，
通胀阴云笼罩
By Bloomberg News 彭博新闻社
April 24, 2026 at 7:00 AM GMT+8
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Takeaways by Bloomberg AI
彭博 AI 要点
Chinese exporters are beginning to lift prices on everything
from swimsuits to air conditioners as the Iran war drives up
oil-linked input costs, signaling that global consumer goods
inflation is likely to accelerate.
随着伊朗局势推⾼与⽯油相关的⽣产成本，中国出⼜商正开始
上调从泳装到空调等各类商品的价格，这预⽰着全球消费品通
胀可能加速。
More than a dozen categories of consumer goods saw sharp
year-on-year price increases in March, customs data
compiled by Trade Data Monitor and analyzed by
Bloomberg showed — snapping a sustained decline over the
Translate 翻译
0:000:00 / 4:03/ 4:03
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past few years that had helped restrain global inflation.
Trade Data Monitor 汇编并经彭博社分析的海关数据显⽰，3
⽉份有⼗余类消费品价格同⽐⼤幅上涨——这打破了过去⼏年持
续下跌的趋势，⽽此前这种趋势曾有助于抑制全球通胀。
China Export Prices Return to Growth for Some Sectors
中国部分⾏业的出⼜价格重回增长轨道
Source: Trade Data Monitor
来源：贸易数据监测
“I held off raising prices for as long as I could in March, but
in the end I had no choice,” said Pang Ling, a sales manager
at a Shanghai-based medical catheter maker. “I panicked
watching plastic costs climb almost every singe day,” she
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said.
“三⽉份我尽可能地推迟了涨价，但最终还是别⽆选择，”上海
某医疗导管制造商的销售经理庞玲说道。“看着塑料成本⼏乎
每天都在上涨，我感到⾮常焦虑，”她表⽰。
That stress is rippling across a raft of sectors, with exporters
also raising prices on swimsuits, ski-suits and women’s
trousers — all reliant on synthetic fibers such as polyester —
by low- to mid-single digit percentages in March. Their
suppliers hiked fiber prices as frequently as daily during the
month.
这种压⼒正波及多个⾏业，出⼜商也在 3 ⽉份将泳装、滑雪服
和⼥装裤——这些产品均依赖聚酯等合成纤维——的价格上调了
低⾄中个位数的百分⽐。当⽉，他们的供应商甚⾄每天都在上
调纤维价格。
Other products reliant on rubber, plastic and oil-derived
chemicals also saw spikes. Syringes were one of the hardest
hit products, with prices up as much as 20% in March.
Meanwhile, home appliance prices are getting squeezed on
two fronts as manufacturers also face higher metal and
semiconductor costs.
其他依赖橡胶、塑料和⽯油化⼯产品的价格也出现飙升。注射
器是受冲击最严重的产品之⼀，3 ⽉份价格涨幅⾼达 20%。与
此同时，由于制造商还⾯临⾦属和半导体成本上涨的双重压
⼒，家电价格正⾯临双重挤压。
Read: Some Chinese Exporters Lift Prices on Rising Costs
Due to War
阅读：受战争影响成本上升，部分中国出⼜商提价
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The detailed breakdown provides one of the first snapshots
of how the Iran-war induced energy shock is rippling
through the world’s No. 2 economy and on to retailers
around the world.
这份详细分析报告⾸次展现了伊朗战争引发的能源冲击如何波
及全球第⼆⼤经济体，并进⽽影响世界各地的零售商。
For almost three years, China’s export prices had been
falling due to overcapacity and intense competition, helping
to contain inflation in economies from the US to Europe.
Those declines shaved an estimated %% off headline
inflation in advanced economies in recent years, according
to Capital Economics.
近三年来，受产能过剩和激烈竞争影响，中国出⼜价格持续⾛
低，这在⼀定程度上抑制了从美国到欧洲各国的通胀。据资本
经济研究所（Capital Economics）估算，近年来，这⼀价格
下跌使发达经济体的整体通胀率降低了约 %⾄ %。
As recently as February, cheaper Chinese goods acted as a
restraint on price pressures in economies such as the UK.
就在今年 2 ⽉，价格较低的中国商品还曾缓解了英国等经济体
的通胀压⼒。
Now, as Chinese manufacturers begin passing on higher
costs, that disinflationary buffer is weakening.
如今，随着中国制造商开始将成本上涨转嫁给消费者，这种抑
制通胀的缓冲作⽤正在减弱。
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China's Export Prices Have Been Falling Since May 2023
⾃ 2023 年 5 ⽉以来，中国的出⼜价格⼀直在下跌
Source: China's General Administration of Customs
来源：中国海关总署
Bloomberg Economics estimates above-3% inflation in 2026
is “GLOBAL INSIGHT: War Shock Puts Above-3% Inflation in
Play (1)” across the euro area, the US and the UK as a result
of the energy cost spike. This is a huge reversal from before
the Iran war, when price growth in major economies was
headed back toward target.
彭博经济研究预计，受能源成本飙升影响，2026 年欧元区、
美国和英国的通胀率将超过 3%（参见《全球洞察：战争冲击
或致通胀率超 3%（1）》）。这与伊朗战争爆发前的情况形成
了巨⼤反差——当时主要经济体的物价涨幅正朝着⽬标⽔平回
落。
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That cost pressure has already seen Chinese producer prices
return to growth for the first time in more than three years
and Goldman Sachs Group Inc. expects overall export prices
to turn positive as soon as in March. Official data to be
released around April 25 will confirm whether that’s the
case.
受成本压⼒影响，中国⽣产者价格指数已时隔三年多⾸次重回
增长轨道，⾼盛集团预计整体出⼜价格最早将于 3 ⽉转为正增
长。预计将于 4 ⽉ 25 ⽇左右公布的官⽅数据将证实这⼀预测
是否成⽴。
Some Chinese Products See Export Price Jumps in March
3 ⽉份部分中国产品出⼜价格出现上涨
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Source: Trade Data Monitor
来源：贸易数据监测
So far, the full brunt of higher export prices hasn’t reached
consumers and, in most economies, inflation has only ticked
up modestly. Many goods shipped last month were likely
ordered weeks or even months earlier, meaning they also
won’t reflect rising input costs. And exporters in some
sectors like toys, even cut prices in March due to fierce
competition and weak demand.
到⽬前为⽌，出⼜价格上涨的全部冲击尚未传导⾄消费者端，
在⼤多数经济体中，通胀率仅⼩幅上升。上⽉发货的许多商品
很可能是数周甚⾄数⽉前订购的，这意味着它们也不会反映出
投⼊成本的上升。⽽在玩具等某些⾏业，出⼜商甚⾄因竞争激
烈和需求疲软⽽在 3 ⽉份下调了价格。
This suggests that export-price inflation is set to accelerate
in the coming months, especially in the absence of a
resolution to the Iran conflict. A 10% increase in oil price
typically lifts Chinese export prices by an average 50 basis
points over the first year, with a peak four to five months
from the initial shock, according to Goldman Sachs
estimates.
这表明，未来⼏个⽉出⼜价格通胀势必加速，尤其是在伊朗冲
突尚未解决的情况下。据⾼盛估算，油价每上涨 10%，通常会
在第⼀年使中国出⼜价格平均上涨 50 个基点，且在初始冲击
发⽣四到五个⽉后达到峰值。
Even so, Standard Chartered Plc’s Ding Shuang noted that
China’s export prices will probably rise less than those of
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other major exporters, meaning the country could absorb
part of the global inflation shock.
尽管如此，渣打银⾏的丁双指出，中国的出⼜价格涨幅可能低
于其他主要出⼜国，这意味着中国有望吸收部分全球通胀冲
击。
Read More: China’s Official Calm Belies a War Battering
Small Factories
阅读更多：中国官⽅的平静掩盖了战争对⼩型⼯⼚的重创
But the rest of the world is bracing for a price shock. Pang,
who has already increased prices 7% on new orders from
US-based clients, is set to travel there this week to negotiate
further hikes. Prices of polyvinyl chloride (PVC), her
company’s main input, surged as much as 80% in March
from pre-war levels and remain about 50% higher even after
a modest pullback in the past two weeks.
但世界其他地区正为即将到来的价格冲击做准备。庞⼥⼠已将
美国客户的新订单价格上调了 7%，并计划本周前往美国商讨
进⼀步提价事宜。 作为其公司主要原料的聚氯⼄烯（PVC）价
格，3 ⽉份较战前⽔平⼀度飙升 80%，即便在过去两周⼩幅回
落之后，仍⽐战前⾼出约 50%。
“I’m so tired of not knowing what tomorrow will bring,”
Pang said. “The whole situation has put me on an emotional
rollercoaster every day.”
“我实在受够了这种不知明天会发⽣什么的⽇⼦，”彭说，“这
种处境让我每天都像坐过⼭车⼀样情绪起伏不定。”
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