No. C2005006 2005-08 ᇏݓҍᆟٳಃაֹٚ܄܋֥܂۳ ྍౄđϢࢱ ᇏݓࣜ࠶࣮ᇏྏ Кࣘն࿐ Кࣘ 100871 ሰႯࡱğxqping@ No. C2005006 2005୍8ᄅ19ರ 1
ᇏݓҍᆟٳಃაֹٚ܄܋֥܂۳ ྍౄđϢࢱ ᇏݓࣜ࠶࣮ᇏྏ Кࣘն࿐ Кࣘ 100871 ሰႯࡱğxqping@ No. C2005006 2005୍8ᄅ19ರ ᅋေğ ҍᆟࠗৣაყෘຓ൬ೆ൞ૡ్ཌྷܱ֥bࠎႿoҍᆟࠗৣp֥קၬđૌॉҳਔҍᆟٳಃМࣟ༯ҍᆟࠗৣֹؓٚ܄܋֥܂۳ડቀֹ֒ᆇൌླေ֥ૹۋ؇čresponsivenessĎ֥႕ཙbᇏݓ֥ҍᆟٳಃ၇ಖթᄝ၂ུ໙ีğ൮༵đܿଆऍն֥ყෘຓ൬ೆ߶ঔնֹٚᆟک֥ܿଆđՖطࡆᇗֹ֒ंބ୪֥ڵքĠఃՑđֹٚᆟکყෘຓᆦԛ֥ܿଆིႋ־ࡨĠֻđӬ൧߄ඣčၛ٤୪ದ१ᅝሹದ१֥б২টޙਈĎބֹٚᆟکؓӬ൧ົٚ૫֥ᆦԛڵཌྷܱđіૼᇏݓ֥۽ြ߄ࣉӱބӬ൧߄ࣉӱѩ҂၂ᇁb 2
ᅋေğ ҍᆟࠗৣაყෘຓ൬ೆ൞ૡ్ཌྷܱ֥bࠎႿoҍᆟࠗৣp֥קၬđૌॉҳਔҍᆟٳಃМࣟ༯ҍᆟࠗৣֹؓٚ܄܋֥܂۳ડቀֹ֒ᆇൌླေ֥ૹۋ؇čresponsivenessĎ֥႕ཙbᇏݓ֥ҍᆟٳಃ၇ಖթᄝ၂ུ໙ีğ൮༵đܿଆऍն֥ყෘຓ൬ೆ߶ঔնֹٚᆟک֥ܿଆđՖطࡆᇗֹ֒ंބ୪֥ڵքĠఃՑđֹٚᆟکყෘຓᆦԛ֥ܿଆིႋ־ࡨĠֻđӬ൧߄ඣčၛ٤୪ದ१ᅝሹದ१֥б২টޙਈĎބֹٚᆟکؓӬ൧ົٚ૫֥ᆦԛڵཌྷܱđіૼᇏݓ֥۽ြ߄ࣉӱބӬ൧߄ࣉӱѩ҂၂ᇁb ܱՍğҍᆟٳಃ ֹٚ܄܋܂۳ ҍᆟࠗৣ JEL Classification: H61, H71, H72. 3
1. ႄ ᄝݖಀ֥ؽჅ୍ᇏđҍᆟٳಃ၂ᆰ൞ᇏݓࣜ࠶ڿ۪ބࣜ࠶ؿᅚ֥ᇗေज़ีbܱႿᆃ۱໙ีႵሢܼ֥࣮ٗbఫ႖၂ބWeingastč1996đ1997ĎಪູđႿϖ୍սᄪ௹ѩ၂ᆰӻ࿃֞1994୍֥ᇏݓҍᆟᇅ؇ڿֹູ۪ٚᆟکሔࣜ࠶ؿᅚิ܂ਔႵི֥ࠗৣđѩູᇏݓࣙದ֥ࣜ࠶ིࠛקਔࠎԤbቋ࣍đBerkowitzބLič2000Ďᆷԛᇏݓֹٚᆟکбجઅථֹٚᆟک֥ඥಃࢸק۷ࡆૼಒđѩၛՎটࢳਆ۱ݓࡅࣜ࠶ིࠛᆭࡗ֥ҵљbShleiferč1997ĎބZhuravaskayač2000Ďಪֹູؓٚᆟک֥ҍᆟࠗৣ൞ᇏݓൌགྷࣜ࠶َ֥ܱb࣐ܵႵܱᇏݓҍᆟࠗৣބҍᆟٳಃ֥໓ངޓ؟đ൞ࠫެીႵ໓ངՖඔਈഈॉҳҍᆟٳಃؓႿֹٚ܄܋܂۳ડቀֹ֒ᆇൌླေ֥ૹۋ؇֥႕ཙbቋ࣍Zhang֩ದč2004Ď֥σ২࣮ؿགྷđᇏݓ୪ը֥ᇶ࿊ई߶ิֹۚ֒܄܋֥܂۳ඣbಖطđႵܱ1994୍ٳඥᇅުҍᆟࠗৣؓႿֹٚ܄܋܂۳ඣބࢲܒ֥႕ཙٚ૫đൌᆣ࣮ߎ൞ཌྷ֒ಌك֥b ᄝࣜ࠶ંഈđҍᆟٳಃ၂۱ᇶေܴׄ൞ٳಃ֤܄܋֥܂۳ିܔ۷ࡆሙಒ֥ડቀֹ֒ं֥ླေčOatesđ1972ĎbಖطđᆞೂKeenބMarchandč1997Ď෮ᆷԛ֥đҍᆟٳಃМࣟ༯ֹٚᆟکᆭࡗ֥ࣩᆚ߶֝ᇁ܄܋ᆦԛࢲܒഈ֥oொҵpđၹՎ܄܋ᆦԛ߶թᄝ༢ྟ౷bFaguetč2004Ď܊ངਔ၂۱ޙਈҍᆟٳಃ႕ཙᆟکؓंླૹۋӱ؇֥࠹ਈٚمbЧ໓ࠎႿֹٚᆟکყෘଽ൬ᆦބყෘຓ൬ᆦ֥૫ϰඔऌđؓFaguetč2004Ď෮Ⴈ֥ٚمቓਔൡ֥֒ঔᅚđॉҳҍᆟࠗৣؓ܄܋ᆦԛ෮ᄯӮ֥oொҵpĠЧ໓ߎࡼॉҳ1994୍ٳඥᇅڿ۪ުđҍᆟٳಃ൞ڎิۚਔֹٚᆟک܄܋֥܂۳ડቀֹ֒ᆇൌླေ֥ૹۋ؇b Ч໓ࢲܒೂ༯ğֻؽ҆ٳ૭ඍ1994୍ٳඥᇅڿ۪ު֥ᇅ؇э߄đࢺകᄝݖಀ୍֥ᇏᇏݓົӻҍᆟٳಃ֥ᇕҍᆟࠗৣࠏᇅĠֻ҆ٳбࢠਔᇏݓֹٚᆟکყෘଽބყෘຓᆦԛࢲܒᆭࡗ֥҂Ġᄝֻඹ҆ٳđ۴ऌFaguetč2004Ď֥ٚمđૌࡼဒҍᆟࠗৣ൞ڎڿэਔᇏݓֹٚ܄܋֥܂۳ଆൔđѩॉҳ֝ᇁᆃུэ߄֥थקၹĠֻ҆ٳ൞໓ᅣ֥ࢲંb 2. 1994୍ٳඥᇅڿ۪ު֥ҍᆟٳಃ ۴ऌԮ֥߃ٳđᇏݓ֥ҍᆟุᇅٳູࠩğᄝᇏနᆟکၛ༯đ൞31۱സࠩֆ໊đസၛ༯൞331۱ֹࠩֆ໊đ2109۱ཅބ44741۱པᆓࠩֆ໊b๙ӈđᇏနᆟکၛ༯֥۲ࠩᆟکӫູoֹٚᆟکpbᄝݖಀ֥ؽ୍ᇏđҍᆟٳಃ၂ᆰ൞ᇏݓࣜ࠶ڿ۪֥ᇗေቆӮ҆ٳbٳಃЇওਔ၂༢ਙ֥ҍᆟᇅ؇νஆđֹ֤ٚᆟکđႭః൞സࠩᆟکđཚႵؓҍᆟ൬ೆ֥ഺჅ॥ᇅಃđᆃུᇅ؇νஆֹູٚᆟک՜ࣉࣜ࠶ڿ۪đؿᅚֹ֒ࣜ࠶ิ܂ਔᇗေ֥ҍᆟ 4
ࠗৣbൌ࠽ഈđٳಃᇅ؇༯ֹؓٚᆟک֥ҍᆟࠗৣཤਔᇏနᆟک֥ඥࠎđࣉط֝ᇁਔᇏနᆟک֥ҍᆟ൬ೆᅝҍᆟሹ൬ೆ֥б২ӻ࿃༯ࢆđՖ1978୍֥35%༯ࢆ֞1992୍֥12%bၹՎđᄝ1994୍ࣉྛਔඥᇅڿ۪đၛՖ۴Чഈڿэᇏနᆟکބസࠩᆟک൬ೆ߃ٳ֥ٚൔb ඥ൬߃ٳᇅ؇൞1994୍ඥᇅڿ۪֥ނྏଽಸbඥ൬൬ೆФ߃ٳູ۱҆ٳğᇏန൬ೆaֹٚ൬ೆބ܋ཚ൬ೆđݓඥअބֹඥअٳљᆘ൬҂֥ඥᇕbၹՎđֹٚᆟک֥ඥ൬൬ೆᄝሹ൬ೆᇏ֥бᇗФཤࡨਔđൈֹٚᆟکֹؓٚఒြࡨ૧ඥ൬֥ಃ০္Фཤਔb࣐ܵᄝ1994୍ުđֹٚᆟک֥ඥ൬߃ٳଆൔؿളਔэ߄đఃᆦԛᄳ֥߃ٳ၇ಖӵ༛ਔ࠹߃ࣜ࠶ุᇅ༯֥หׄđѩીႵෛሢඥ൬߃ٳଆൔ֥ڿэطቓԛཌྷႋ֥э߄bֹٚᆟکಯಖླေӵքิ܂ࠎЧ܄܋֥ᄳđбೂğ࢝ტaളބ၄ਏaഠ߶Ќགุ༢aࠎЧࡹഡބӬ൧ົaᆦჱ୪ြࡹഡ֩֩bਸ਼ຓđෛሢ൧ӆࣜ࠶ุᇅڿ۪֥ࣉྛđֹٚᆟکߎ૫ਢሢऍն৯টູݓႵఒြ༯ەᆯ۽ބնਈ֥ാြದ१ิ܂ഠ߶Ќᅰุ༢bᆞೂߛބְஂक़č2002Ď෮ᆷԛ֥đᇏݓസࠩၛ༯ᆟکč൧aཅaཔᆓĎӵքਔऍն֥ᆦԛᄳđᆃ҂ژކݓ࠽ൌbၹՎđູਔЌᆣֹٚᆟکҍᆟᆦԛބ൬ೆᆭࡗ֥ޙđҍᆟٳಃൌ࠽ഈߎ൞Ф࿃ົӻ༯টb Ֆ1994୍ఏđົӻҍᆟٳಃ֥ᇕࠏᇅٳљ൞ğ č1ĎՖᇏနᆟکཟֹٚᆟک֥ඥ൬ْߎ 1994୍ٳඥᇅڿ۪ᆭభđᇏနᆟکཟֹٚᆟکӵ୶đࡼ1993୍֥ൌ࠽൬ೆቔູࠎሙđᇏနᆟکཟૄസْߎ၂гඔଢၛЌᆣֹٚ൬ೆᇀഒა1993୍֥ඥ൬൬ೆӻbᇏနᆟکӵ୶ཟૄസ֥ඥ൬ْߎູğ ࠎ௹୍ඥ൬ْߎ= VAT PBR൞സࠩᆟکᄝࠎ௹୍֥Ӯ൬ೆࠎඔč1993୍ĎđLT൞ֹٚඥ൬bߐओ߅ඪđೂݔֹٚඥ൬ೆčֹٚඥ൞۴ऌ1994୍ٳඥᇅ෮קၬ֥Ďބֹٚ܋ཚ֥ᄹᆴඥ൬ೆč1994୍֥ٳඥᇅܿקđֹٚᆟکཚႵ25%֥ᄹᆴඥĎᆭބཬႿ1993୍֥ඥ൬ሹ൬ೆđପહࡼႮᇏနᆟکটҀؽᆀᆭࡗ֥ಌ१b č2Ďඥ൬߃ٳܿᄵ ၛഈܱႿඥ൬ْߎ֥܄ൔᆺିົӻ1993୍ֹ֥ٚᆟکᆦԛඣbູਔࢳथֹٚყෘଽᆦԛᄹӉ֥໙ีđٳඥᇅߎಒקਔඥ൬߃ٳ֥ܿᄵđᆃ۱ܿᄵૼಒਔđೂݔᄹᆴඥބཨٮඥ֥ሹحӑݖਔ1993୍ᆃਆᇕඥ൬൬ೆᆭބđପહֹٚᆟکࡼٳཚğ ඥ൬ٳཚб২=[VATᄹࡆح CTᄹࡆح> VAT CT൞ཨٮඥb ๙ݖඥ൬ْߎބඥ൬߃ٳܿᄵđᇏနᆟکཟֹٚᆟکሇ၍ਔᄀটᄀ؟֥ඥ൬൬ೆb࣐ܵ 5
ֹٚᆟک֥ඥ൬൬ೆᅝሹඥ൬൬ೆ֥б২Ֆ1993୍֥70%༯ࢆ֞ቋ֥࣍45%đᄝॉ੮ਔඥ൬ْߎުđֹٚᆟک֥ყෘଽᆦԛᅝಆݓҍᆟყෘଽሹᆦԛ֥б২ಯಖۚղ70%đა1993୍ཌྷb č3Ďֹٚᆟکყෘຓ൬ೆ Ֆ1ॖၛुԛđሱՖ1978୍ၛটđყෘຓ൬ೆބყෘຓᆦԛ၂ᆰᄝࠤखᄹࡆbᄪᄝഈ۱ൗࡀϖ୍սđყෘຓ൬ೆࣼ൞ࣜ࠶ڿ۪֥Ӂb֒ᄀটᄀ؟֥ݓႵఒြषЌః০đႮႿ֒ൈ֥ݓႵఒြն൞Ⴎֹٚᆟک෮ႚႵđၹՎᆃུӮ০֥ն҆ٳӮֹູٚᆟکყෘຓ൬ೆ֥ᇶေটჷbՖ1978୍֞1993୍đֹٚᆟکϲဆਔoսದp֥࢘đֹູٚݓႵఒြิ܂Ќބᆦӻb֒ಖđֹٚᆟکބֹٚݓႵఒြᆭࡗ൞০֥đֹٚᆟکॖၛࡼݓႵఒြ֥Ӯ০߃ೆყෘຓ൬ೆđၛՎֹູٚݓႵఒြิ܂܄܋ڛༀĠაՎൈđֹٚݓႵఒြॖၛֹ֤֞ٚᆟک֥ඥ൬ࡨ૧ބห൹Ќb1994୍ٳඥᇅ֥ൌീࡼֹٚݓႵఒြ֥Ӯ০Ֆֹٚᆟکყෘຓ൬ೆᇏ߃ѭԛটđֹٚݓႵఒြ֥ყෘ৫ԛটđᆰࢤႮҍᆟ҆ᆦbᆃ၂ׄॖၛࢳᄝ၂ᇏ1994୍భުđֹٚᆟک֥ყෘຓ൬ೆބყෘຓᆦԛູહ߶ಖ֥ԛགྷ༯יb 1 ඔऌটჷ: uᇏݓ࠹ᅋေ2004v ᄝ1997୍đყෘຓ൬ೆބყෘຓᆦԛ౷ཌԛགྷਔֻؽՑ༯יđᆃ൞ႮႿᇏနᆟکܿק 6
ࡼ13ཛᆟکࠎࣁ၂Ֆყෘຓ߃݂ೆყෘଽܵbಖطᆃཛܿקѩໃ႕ཙֹٚᆟکؓႿᆃུࠎࣁ֥॥ᇅಃđᆃ൞ၹູࠎࣁ֥ᆘ൬ބႨ၇ಖ൳ֹ֞ٚᆟک֥॥ᇅb ࣐ܵყෘຓ൬ೆބყෘຓᆦԛթᄝਆՑࢠն֥༯יđሱՖ1997୍ၛটđֹٚᆟک֥ყෘຓ൬ᆦಯಖӻ࿃ᄹࡆđ൞1997୍ުބ1994୍ᆭభყෘຓ൬ᆦᄹࡆ֥ݣၬ൞ࢩಖ҂֥ğ1994୍ᆭభყෘຓ൬ᆦ֥ᄹࡆၩሢֹٚᆟکބֹٚݓႵఒြᆭࡗթᄝሢ܋ଔđՖ1994୍ၛުđٳඥᇅڿ్۪؎ਔֹٚᆟکބݓႵఒြᆭࡗ֥৳༢đֹٚᆟکЌֹٚݓႵఒြ֥ࠏФཤđಖطđֹٚᆟکԛ൲ݓႵఒြ֥ࠏಏննࡆ఼đᆃ္൞ᇏݓࣉྛႵ߄ڿ۪Мު֥ჰၹᆭ၂bᄝЉਔݓႵఒြ֥Ӯ০ުđ1997୍ުყෘຓ൬ᆦ֥ᄹӉ൞ႮႿ၂ུྍ֥൬ೆটჷğֹԛ൲൬ೆa൬ٮ൬ೆၛࠣପུᆰࢤࠇࡗࢤֹ৮උႿֹٚᆟک֥սࠏܒ֥൬ೆbᆞ൞1997୍ުყෘຓ൬ᆦ֥ᄹӉֹ֤ٚᆟکϲဆਔoົ൧ӆp֥࢘b ႮႿყෘຓ൬ᆦ൞ֹٚᆟکᇶေ֥ҍᆟࠗৣটჷđՖֻ҆ٳđЧ໓ࡼषٳ༅ყෘຓ൬ᆦ֥ۿିđѩ๙ݖбࢠყෘຓބყෘଽᆦԛđॉҳႮ1994୍ުҍᆟٳಃМࣟ༯֥ҍᆟࠗৣೂޅ႕ཙֹٚ܄܋֥܂۳ડቀֹ֒ᆇൌླေ֥ૹۋ؇b 3. ֹٚᆟکყෘଽބყෘຓሧࣁ҂֥ᆦԛࢲܒ ۴ऌᇏݓֹٚᆟک֥ყෘଽބყෘຓ൬ᆦ֥ඔऌđᄝ1999ބ2002୍ᆭࡗđყෘଽᆦԛބყෘຓᆦԛࢲܒ൞ࢩಖ҂֥bᆞೂKeenބMarchandč1997Ď෮ᆷԛ֥đֹᆭࡗ֥ҍᆟࣩᆚࡼ߶႕ཙ܄܋ᆦԛ֥ඣބࢲܒb๙ӈđҍᆟٳಃ༯ֹࡗ֥ࣩᆚ߶ࢆ֮ᄝ܄܋ڛༀٚ૫֥܄܋ᆦԛđཌྷّđֹࡗࣩᆚ߶ิۚؓࠎԤഡീࡹഡٚ૫֥܄܋ᆦԛđбೂğ܄ਫ਼bႮႿֹٚᆟکᄝᇅקყෘൈ෮૫ਢ֥ჿඏбყෘຓ൬ೆ֥ჿඏ۷ࡆॎख़đหљֹđֹٚᆟکܲჴؓႿყෘຓᆦԛႚႵ۷؟֥॥ᇅಃđପહđॖၛყਘ֥൞đყෘଽބყෘຓᆦԛ֥ࢲܒᆭࡗࣼ߶թᄝҵၳb ۴ऌؓ31۱സඹ୍֥૫ϰඔऌࣉྛٳ༅đі1֞і4ሹࢲਔᇏݓყෘଽބყෘຓᆦԛᄝඹ۱ᇶေٚ૫҂֥܄܋ᆦԛଆൔđᆃඹ۱ٚ૫Їওğ࢝ტaᆦჱ୪ြࡹഡčࡥӫᆦ୪ĎaࠎԤഡീࡹഡčЧ໓Ⴈ܄ਫ਼ࡹഡটսіĎބᆟکྛᆟܵٮbૌٳљႨყෘଽᄝᆃඹ۱ٚ૫֥ᆦԛބყෘຓᄝᆃඹ۱ٚ૫֥ᆦԛؓཌྷ֥ࢳэਈࣉྛ݂߭bі1֞і4ཁൕਔᄝܥקིၭଆބෛࠏིၭଆ༯෮ܙ࠹֥۲۱ሱэਈ֥༢ඔđՖطॖၛбࢠყෘຓᆦԛބყෘଽᆦԛི֥ࠛb . ࢝ტ 7
ೂі1෮ൕđෛሢದनGDP֥ᄹࡆđႨႿ࢝ტ֥ದन܄܋ᆦԛ္ཌྷႋ֥ᄹࡆđᆃၩሢࣜ࠶֥ؿᅚ߶՜ࣉ࢝ტٚ૫֥܄܋ሧbᆃᇕࣜ࠶ؿᅚބ࢝ტᆦԛᆭࡗ֥ᆞཌྷܱܱ༢ؓႿᆟکყෘଽᆦԛބყෘຓᆦԛ൞ཌྷ֥bಖطđ໓ੱؓႿದनყෘଽ࢝ტᆦԛ֥႕ཙᄝෛࠏིႋଆ༯൞ᆞ֥đ໓ੱؓႿದनყෘຓ࢝ტᆦԛ֥႕ཙ൞ڵ֥đ࣐݂ܵ߭ࢲݔ҂ཁᇷb෮ၛđᄝ໓ੱֹ֥ۚđ္ࣼ൞ؓႿ࢝ტ֥ླᄀնֹ֥đֹٚᆟک߶ᄹࡆყෘଽ֥࢝ტᆦԛĠაՎཌྷّđֹٚᆟکؓႿ࢝ტ֥ყෘຓᆦԛޭ൪ਔھֹؓႿ࢝ტ֥ླčᄝܥקིႋଆ༯ĎࠇᆀაھֹؓႿ࢝ტ֥ླМ֡طԀčᄝෛࠏིႋଆ༯Ďbᆃඪૼᄝ࢝ტ҆đֹٚᆟک֥ყෘଽᆦԛбყෘຓᆦԛؓႿھֹ֥ླ۷ࡆૹۋb і1 ֹٚᆟکყෘଽᆦԛބყෘຓᆦԛི֥ࠛؓбii࢝ტ ၹэਈ ದनყෘଽ࢝ტᆦԛ ದनყෘຓ࢝ტᆦԛ Fixed Random Fixed Random Effect Effect Effect Effect ದनGDP ********()()()()ཬ࿐ഽളб 11798** * ()()()()໓ੱ ***()()()()ૄຣದႚႵ֥ཬ࿐࿐ඔ * ** ()()()()ӈඔཛ ()()ܴҳᆴඔଢ124 124 114 114 ֹඔ31313030R-squared within R-squared between R-squared overall ausman test: χ(k) ausm an test: Pr>χ ᇿ: (1) ওݼᇏཁൕਔt࠹ᆴĠ (2) ྒݼіൕ༢ඔ֥ཁᇷඣٳљູğ10%(*)đ 5%(**)ބ1%(***)Ġ (3) ૄቆ݂߭Їওਔ၂ቆൈࡗэਈb Ֆі1đૌߎିܔु֞ყෘଽᆦԛބყෘຓᆦԛᆭࡗ֥ఃҵљbದनყෘଽ࢝ტᆦԛթᄝ၂קӱ؇֥ܿଆིႋğ࢝ഽ࿐ളбᄀۚaದन࿐ඔčᆷૄຣದႚႵ֥ཬ࿐࿐ඔĎ 8
ᄀֹ֥ۚđყෘଽ࢝ტᆦԛ߶ཁᇷᄹࡆđၩሢࡹഡ࿐ބအ࢝ഽ֥ؒᄳ൞Ⴎֹٚᆟک֥ყෘଽᆦԛটӵք֥ĠཌྷّđՖі1ॖၛૼཁुԛđದनყෘຓ࢝ტᆦԛؓႿ࢝ഽ࿐ളбބದन࿐ඔᆃਆ۱эਈ֥݂߭༢ඔཁᇷູڵčᄝෛࠏིႋଆ༯Ďࠇᆀ҂ཁᇷčᄝෛࠏࠇᆀܥקིႋଆ༯Ďđၩሢყෘຓ࢝ტᆦԛѩીႵႨႿ࿐ࡹഡބ࢝ഽ֥ؒအb ēᆦჱ୪ြࡹഡ і2 ֹٚᆟکყෘଽᆦԛބყෘຓᆦԛི֥ࠛؓбiiᆦ୪ ၹэਈ ֆ໊୪ြದ१ყෘଽ ֆ໊୪ြದ१ყෘຓ ᆦ୪ᆦԛ ᆦ୪ᆦԛ FixedRandom Fixed Random Effect Effect Effect Effect ದनGDP ************ () () () () Ӭ൧߄ඣ () () () () པᆓܿଆ**()()()()൳ᄙੱ **** () ()()()ӈඔཛ**()()()ܴҳᆴඔଢ 120 120 120 120 ֹඔ 30 30 30 30 R-squared within R-squared between R-squared overall ausman test: χ(k) ausman test: Pr>χ ᇿ: (1) ওݼᇏཁൕਔt࠹ᆴĠ (2) ྒݼіൕ༢ඔ֥ཁᇷඣٳљູğ10%(*)đ 5%(**)ބ1%(***)Ġ (3) ૄቆ݂߭Їওਔ၂ቆൈࡗэਈb і2ุགྷਔֹٚᆟکᄝᆦ୪ٚ૫֥ყෘଽᆦԛބყෘຓᆦԛྛູbૼཁॖၛु֞đದनყෘଽᆦ୪ᆦԛބყෘຓᆦ୪ᆦԛෛሢದनGDP֥ᄹࡆطᄹࡆbӬ൧߄ඣčЧ໓קၬູ٤୪ြದ१აሹದ१֥б২Ďؓದनყෘଽᆦ୪ᆦԛބದनყෘຓᆦ୪ᆦԛ֥႕ཙ൞ᆞ֥đ൞ؓႿყෘଽᆦ୪ᆦԛđં൞ᄝܥקིႋଆߎ൞ෛࠏིႋଆ༯҂ཁᇷĠطӬ 9
൧߄ඣؓႿყෘຓᆦ୪ᆦԛ֥႕ཙᆺᄝܥקིႋଆ༯҂ཁᇷູᆞbૌ֥݂߭ࢲݔཁൕđֹٚᆟکყෘଽᆦ୪ᆦԛթᄝoܿଆࣜ࠶pđᆃ൞ၹູཔᆓ֥ܿଆᄀնđყෘଽᆦ୪ᆦԛᄀഒđᄝෛࠏིႋଆᇏđཅᆓܿଆ֥༢ඔཁᇷູڵĠཌྷֹؓđᆃᇕoܿଆࣜ࠶pѩીႵᄝყෘຓᆦ୪ᆦԛᇏุགྷԛটđཅᆓܿଆ֥݂߭༢ඔᄝܥקིႋଆބෛࠏིႋଆ༯҂ཁᇷູᆞbᆴ֤ᇿၩ֥൞đყෘଽᆦԛބყෘຓᆦԛؓႿ൳ᄙੱّ֥ႋ൞ࢩಖ҂֥đದनყෘຓᆦ୪ᆦԛؓ൳ᄙੱ֥݂߭༢ඔ҂ཁᇷູᆞĠطದनყෘଽᆦ୪ᆦԛؓ൳ᄙੱ֥݂߭༢ඔ҂ࣇູڵđط٤ӈཁᇷbೂՎ༷ૼ֥ؓбّ႘ԛ, ყෘଽᆦԛ൞൙భಒק֥đ෮ၛҍᆟყෘ҂ି༵ဒֹؓପུෛࠏؿള֥ሱಖᄙݝቓԛࠣൈّ֥ႋđཌྷбطđֹٚᆟک֥ყෘຓᆦԛᄝ၂קӱ؇ഈ൞൙ުّ֥ႋđ֒ሱಖᄙݝؿള֥ൈީđყෘຓᆦԛିܔֹ֥ؓ֒ླቓԛቋࠣൈّ֥ႋđّ႘ᄝ݂߭ࢲݔഈࣼ൞đದनყෘຓᆦ୪ᆦԛؓ൳ᄙੱ֥݂߭༢ඔູᆞđ࣐ܵᄝૌ֥ܙ࠹ᇏđ݂߭ࢲݔѩ҂ཁᇷb . ࠎԤഡീࡹഡ ༯૫ૌࡼؓбყෘଽᆦԛބყෘຓᆦԛᄝᆦჱࠎԤഡീࡹഡٚ૫֥หׄđᆃဢ֥ؓб߶֤֞၂ུޓႵ౿֥ࢲંbܱႿყෘຓᆦԛđՖі3ॖၛૼཁु֞đčᄝܥקིႋଆ༯ĎದनყෘଽࠎЧࡹഡᆦԛෛሢದनGDP֥ᄹࡆطཁᇷᄹࡆđطაӁनຓഅᆰࢤሧඣčЧ໓קၬູຓഅᆰࢤሧඣა۽ြሹӁᆴ֥бᆴĎa܄ਫ਼ૡ؇čЧ໓קၬູ۲സֆ໊ݓ૫ࠒؓႋ֥܄ਫ਼ӱඔĎཁᇷֹӯᆞཌྷܱܱ༢bაՎཌྷّđದनGDPaӁनຓഅᆰࢤሧඣؓದनყෘଽࠎЧࡹഡᆦԛ֥႕ཙ൞҂ཁᇷ֥čದनყෘଽࠎЧࡹഡᆦԛؓದनGDPބӁनຓഅᆰࢤሧඣ֥݂߭༢ඔ҂ཁᇷĎđطದनყෘଽࠎЧࡹഡᆦԛؓ܄ਫ਼ૡ؇֥݂߭༢ඔཁᇷູڵĆᆃུҵљّႋਔყෘଽሧࣁބყෘຓሧࣁᄝ੫ྛࠎЧࡹഡᆦԛᆯିٚ૫ᆇᆞ֥љğᇏݓՖഈ۱ൗࡀଌၛটđֹٚᆟک֥ყෘຓᆦԛࣼᇶေႨႿࠎԤഡീࡹഡđದनყෘຓࠎЧࡹഡᆦԛؓႿದनGDP֥ᄹӉ٤ӈૹۋđሧࠎԤഡീ္൞ູਔ་ႄ۷؟֥ຓഅᆰࢤሧĠਸ਼၂ٚ૫đֹٚᆟکყෘଽሧࣁؓႿࠎЧࡹഡٚ૫֥ᆦԛ൳֞ޓ؟ཋᇅđᇶေႨႿሧ܄܋ཨٮđбೂ࢝ტބ܄܋ܵđࠎႿᆃ۱Ⴎđყෘຓሧࣁ๙ӈФӫູoࣜ࠶ؿᅚҍᆟpࠇᆀoࡹഡҍᆟpđطᆞ֥ܿყෘଽሧࣁФӫູo܄܋ཨٮҍᆟpࠇᆀoӹٖҍᆟpb҂ܵ൞ყෘଽࠎЧࡹഡᆦԛߎ൞ყෘຓࠎЧࡹഡᆦԛđؓ܄ਫ਼ૡ؇֥݂߭༢ඔູڵđᆃၩሢđ܄ਫ਼ૡ؇ᄀ֮đ္ࣼ൞ඪؓႿ܄ਫ਼ᆃᇕࠎԤഡീ֥ླᄀնđყෘଽބყෘຓ֥ࠎЧࡹഡᆦԛބӬ൧ົᆦԛ߶ཌྷႋᄹࡆđ෮ၛඪđؓႿ܄ਫ਼ᆃᇕ܄܋֥܂۳ԉٳડቀਔھֹ֥ൌ࠽ླbԛದၩਘ֥൞đӬ൧߄ඣčЧ໓ၛ٤୪ြದ१აሹದ१֥б২ 10
টޙਈĎބყෘຓࠎЧࡹഡࠣӬ൧ົᆦԛᆭࡗڵཌྷܱđඪૼᇏݓ֥۽ြ߄ࣉӱބӬ൧ࡹഡѩીႵෛሢ୪ြದ१ሇ߄ູ٤୪ದ१طቓԛཌྷႋэ߄đ۽ြ߄ބӬ൧߄ࣉӱᆭࡗ҂၂ᇁb і3 ֹٚᆟکყෘଽᆦԛބყෘຓᆦԛི֥ࠛؓбiiࠎԤഡീࡹഡބӬ൧ົ ၹэਈ ӁनყෘଽࠎԤഡീࡹ ӁनყෘຓࠎԤഡീࡹഡބӬ൧ົᆦԛ ഡބӬ൧ົᆦԛ Fixed Random Fixed Random Effect Effect Effect Effect ದनGDP *()()()()ۚ܄ਫ਼ૡ؇***** ** () ()()()Ӂनຓഅᆰࢤሧඣ ** ** ()()()()Ӭ൧߄ඣ *()()()()ӈඔཛ*** ()()ܴҳᆴඔଢ 118 118119119ֹඔ30303030R-squared within R-squared between R-squared overall ausman test: χ(k) 2HN/A N/A ausman test: Pr>χ ᇿ: (1) ওݼᇏཁൕਔt࠹ᆴĠ (2) ྒݼіൕ༢ඔ֥ཁᇷඣٳљູğ10%(*)đ 5%(**)ބ1%(***)Ġ (3) ૄቆ݂߭Їওਔ၂ቆൈࡗэਈb . ྛᆟܵᆦԛ ᆞೂі4෮ཁൕ֥đದनGDP֥ᄹӉ߶ֹٚᆟکყෘଽބყෘຓྛᆟܵᆦԛ֥ঔᅦđط֒ࣜ࠶ؿᅚൈđყෘຓྛᆟܵᆦԛбყෘଽྛᆟܵᆦԛளᅮ֥۷ॹđඪૼֹٚᆟک٤ᆞ֥ܿսࠏܒ߶ܦႨ۷؟֥ದჴটܵބࡓֹٚ൧ӆbֹٚᆟک٤ᆞܿսࠏܒ֥ளᅮ൝ᄝі4֥݂߭ᇏ္ିܔّ႘ԛটđӬ൧߄ඣؓႿದनყෘຓྛᆟܵᆦԛ֥႕ཙ൞ᆞ֥ğč҂ં൞ᄝܥקིႋߎ൞ᄝෛࠏིႋଆ༯ĎӬ൧߄ࣉӱཁᇷֹᄹࡆਔದनყෘຓྛᆟܵᆦԛđൈႮႿӬ൧߄ඣّႋਔ୪ြದ१֥ࡨഒđՖطཁᇷ֥ࡨഒਔֹٚᆟ 11
کყෘଽྛᆟܵᆦԛčᄝෛࠏིႋଆ༯ĎbЧࢫ֥ؿགྷބߛၛְࠣஂक़č2002Ď֥ܴׄཌྷ၂ᇁđૌಪֹູٚᆟکܿଆ֥ঔնᇶေ൞Ⴎყෘຓҍᆟটᆦӻ֥bޓᇗေ֥၂ׄ൞đᄝྛᆟषᆦਵთđყෘຓᆦԛི֥ੱཁಖ֮Ⴟყෘଽᆦԛི֥ੱğ൮༵đཔᆓܿଆᄀնđყෘଽྛᆟܵᆦԛᄀഒđطყෘຓྛᆟܵᆦԛᄀ؟č࣐݂ܵ߭ࢲݔ҂ཁᇷĎđ෮ၛყෘଽྛᆟܵᆦԛթᄝoܿଆࣜ࠶pđطყෘຓྛᆟܵᆦԛѩ҂թᄝoܿଆࣜ࠶pĠఃՑđ֒ᄀটᄀ؟֥୪ြದ१ሇ߄ູ٤୪ြದ१đყෘଽྛᆟܵᆦԛᄀഒđطყෘຓྛᆟܵᆦԛᄀ؟bі4֥݂߭ཁൕđყෘຓྛᆟܵᆦԛაದनـી൬ೆ൞ڵཌྷܱ֥đၹՎყෘຓྛᆟܵᆦԛ֥ঔᅦѩ҂൞ၹູـી൬ೆ֥ᄹࡆط֝ᇁ֥b і4 ֹٚᆟکყෘଽᆦԛބყෘຓᆦԛི֥ࠛؓбiiྛᆟܵ ၹэਈ ದनყෘଽྛᆟܵᆦԛ ದनყෘຓྛᆟܵᆦԛ FixedRandom Fixed Random Effect Effect Effect Effect ದनGDP ********()()()()པᆓܿଆ**** () ()()()Ӭ൧߄ඣ *******()()()()ದनـી൬ೆ ** ** ()()()()ӈඔཛ **()()ܴҳᆴඔଢ123 123 124 124 ֹඔ31313131R-squared within R-squared between R-squared overall an test: χ(k) 2HN/A ausman test: Pr>χ ᇿ: (1) ওݼᇏཁൕਔt࠹ᆴĠ (2) ྒݼіൕ༢ඔ֥ཁᇷඣٳљູğ10%(*)đ 5%(**)ބ1%(***)Ġ (3) ૄቆ݂߭Їওਔ၂ቆൈࡗэਈb ၹՎđՖі4ૌॖၛु֞đაყෘଽྛᆟܵᆦԛཌྷбđყෘຓྛᆟܵᆦԛཌྷؓᄹࡆ֥൝൞ႮႿၛ༯۱ჰၹğč1Ďࣜ࠶ؿᅚ֝ᇁਔყෘຓྛᆟܵᆦԛбყෘଽྛᆟܵ 12
ᆦԛ۷ࡆॹ֥ᄹӉĠč2ĎӬ൧߄ࣉӱᇶေ֝ᇁਔֹٚᆟک֥٤ᆞܿսࠏܒषளᅮđᆞ֥ܿᆟکࠏܒ૫ਢ۷ࡆ֥۬ჿඏđఃܿଆཌྷؓ෪ཬbč3Ďყෘຓྛᆟܵᆦԛི֥֮ੱ္൞֝ᇁఃܿଆࢠն֥ᇶေჰၹbૌ֥݂߭ᄝ၂קӱ؇ഈᆣൌਔđᇏݓ֥ყෘଽྛᆟܵᆦԛᆞᄝཟყෘຓྛᆟܵᆦԛሇ၍đၹູభᆀбުᆀ൳֞۷ࡆ֥۬ჿඏb ሸഈ෮ඍđֹٚᆟکყෘଽҍᆟ֥ᆦԛࢲܒބᆯିაყෘຓҍᆟૼཁ҂bᄝᇏݓđKeenބ Marchandč1997Ď෮໌֥ؓႿֹٚ܄܋ᆦԛࢲܒ֥oொҵpᇶေԛགྷᄝყෘଽބყෘຓᆦԛཌྷරಏႻ҂֥ᆯିᇏbყෘଽᆦԛᇶေႨႿࠎЧ֥܄܋ิ܂đбೂğ࢝ტaᆦ୪ބః֥܄܋ཨٮđطყෘຓᆦԛؓႿֹ֥֒ൌ࠽ླିܔቓԛ۷ࡆૹۋّ֥ႋđႭఃᄝࠎԤഡീࡹഡބؓ၂ུෛࠏؿള֥ሱಖᄙݝൌീࣷჱٚ૫đਸ਼ຓყෘຓᆦԛؓႿ་ႄຓഅᆰࢤሧ۷ࡆૹۋbᄝྛᆟषᆦٚ૫đෛሢGDP֥ᄹࡆđֹٚყෘຓҍᆟбᆞ֥ܿყෘଽҍᆟܿଆᄹࡆ֥۷ॹđၩሢᄀটᄀ؟֥܄܋ሧჷФٳ֞ჿඏࢠཬ֥ყෘຓҍᆟܵࠏܒđՖطࡆᇗਔֹٚं֥ҍᆟڵքđႭః൞୪֥ҍᆟڵքb၂Ϯطđყෘଽᆦԛ൞൙భथק֥đླေ֤֞ದսіն߶֥ބഈࠩᆟک֥ሙđطყෘຓᆦԛ๙ӈ൞൙ުႮ܄ᇙҰ֥đ෮ၛֹٚᆟکᄝ൙భࣼႚႵؓყෘຓᆦԛ֥ᆦಃđᆃࣼࢳਔູહᇏݓ֥ყෘຓҍᆟ൞ֹؓٚᆟکิ܂ҍᆟࠗৣ֥ᇶေটჷb 4. ൌᆣဒ:ҍᆟٳಃaҍᆟࠗৣࠣ܄܋ሧડቀֹླေ֥ૹۋ؇ Чࢫࡼဒҍᆟٳಃބֹؓٚᆟک֥ҍᆟࠗৣ൞ڎ֤܄܋ሧ۷ିડቀֹ֥֒ླbᄝ໓ᅣֻ֥҆ٳđૌؿགྷ֒ᄀটᄀ؟֥ҍᆟყෘຓሧࣁФᇂֹ֞ٚᆟکđҍᆟٳಃ֥ӱ؇ᇯࡶࡆധđֹٚᆟک܄܋ሧ֥ࢲܒ္ڿэਔbᄝЧࢫđૌࡼॉҳᄝҍᆟٳಃ֥Мࣟ༯đҍᆟࠗৣؓ܄܋ሧડቀֹ֒ླ֥ૹۋ؇֥႕ཙb . ൌᆣဒٚم ൮༵ૌ۳ԛٳಃМࣟ༯ҍᆟࠗৣ֥ޙਈᆷѓbႵܱ܄܋ҍᆟބᇏݓҍᆟٳಃ֥໓ངᇶေ൞ؓᄝٳಃМࣟ༯ҍᆟࠗৣ౷֥ંٳ༅bࡥေֹඪđགྷႵܱႿҍᆟࠗৣ౷֥ંᇶေႵਆᇕࢩಖཌྷّ֥ܴׄğ၂ᇕ൞ႮShleiferč1997ĎބZhuravskayač2000Ďิԛ֥đૌಪູجઅථޓҵ֥ࣜ࠶ིࠛᄝ၂קӱ؇ഈ൞ၹູಌكֹؓٚᆟکؿᅚࣜ࠶ิ܂Ⴕི֥ࠗৣbοᅶZhuravskaya֥ܴׄđೂݔֹٚᆟک֥ඥࠎᄹࡆ၂ֆ໊߶֝ᇁֹٚყෘଽ൬ೆᄹࡆ၂ֆ໊đପહҍᆟࠗৣࣼޓ఼bಖطᄝجઅථđֹٚඥࠎᄹࡆ၂ֆ໊đఃᇏ֥ն҆ٳФᇏနᆟک෮ᅝႵbߛč2002Ďษંਔਸ਼ຓ၂ᇕࠗৣ౷đෲಪູᇏݓֹٚᆟک֥ყෘຓ൬ೆປ 13
ಆФֹٚᆟک෮॥ᇅđطყෘଽ൬ೆಏ൳ֹ֞ٚದսіն߶֥ჿඏၛࠣ܄ᇙ֥ࡓđၹՎđֹٚᆟک֥ᆞܿყෘ҆ބყෘຓ҆ᆭࡗթᄝሢࠗৣ҂ཌྷಸđყෘଽሧჷॖିФπᇏବೆყෘຓܵbູਔх૧ᆃਆᇕ౷đૌקၬਔޙਈҍᆟٳಃ༯ֹؓٚᆟکҍᆟࠗৣ֥эਈğೂݔყෘଽ൬ೆ֥э߄ބყෘຓ൬ೆ֥э߄ٚཟđૌࣼקၬҍᆟࠗৣᆷѓູ1Ġّᆭđҍᆟࠗৣᆷѓູ0b ა໓ᅣֻ֥҆ٳࡼᆟکᆦԛቔູФࢳэਈ҂đЧࢫ֥Фࢳэਈ൞܄܋đᆃ൞ູਔॉҳҍᆟࠗৣؓ܄܋ሧડቀֹ֒ླ֥ૹۋ؇֥႕ཙbቋམ֥౦ঃ൞đٳљႨ҂ো܄܋֥Ӂԛၛᇉਈֆ໊ࣉྛ؇ਈটޙਈ܄܋ඣb൞ᆃဢ֥ሧਘᄝᇏݓم֤֞đ෮ၛૌ࿊ᄴਔඹ۱҆ğ࢝ტaളބ၄ਏa܄ਫ਼ࡹഡaၛࠣྛᆟܵđᄝૄ۱҆࿊ᄴ҂֥эਈটޙਈֹٚ܄܋֥ඣb ܱႿֹٚ܄܋܂۳֥ඔऌটჷႿuᇏݓ࠹୍vބuᇏݓҍᆟ୍vđඔऌݤۂਔ୍č1994-2003Ďa۱ֹčႮႿᇗ౩ᆰ༪൧ᄝ1997୍ҌӮ৫đૌࡼఃඔऌބඹԫസ֥ඔऌކѩĎđܴҳᆴູ300۱bૌؓFaguetč2004Ď֥ٚمࣉྛཌྷႋঔᅚđؓ༯૫֥ଆࣉྛܙ࠹ğ **** Y=aregion+aregion+apgdp+apgdp+apbe+apbe+apee+apee+aδ+ε it123it4it5it6it7it8it9titᆃđYऎุ൞ᆷૄᇕ܄܋֥ඣđбೂದन၄ਏࠏܒඔaۚ܄ਫ਼ૡ؇aຣದႚitႵ֥ཬ࿐࿐ඔaഽളб֩֩Ġэਈregion൞ֹэਈđ॥ᇅଖ၂ൈֹ֥ׄหᆘĠδ൞tൈࡗэਈđޙਈޡܴൈหᆘbਸ਼ຓđದनGDPčpgdpĎቔູሱэਈট॥ᇅࣜ࠶ؿᅚඣؓႿ܄܋܂۳֥႕ཙĠሱэਈߎЇওਔದनყෘଽᆦԛඣčpbeĎބದनყෘຓᆦԛčpeeĎđটॉҳ܄܋ᆦԛؓႿֹླ֥ૹۋ؇bѓႵྒݼ֥ሱэਈ൞ؓႋ֥эਈაҍᆟࠗৣэਈ֥Ӱࠒđ֒၂۱ֹᄝ၂୍֥ყෘଽ൬ೆބყෘຓ൬ೆ֥э߄ٚཟཌྷّđҍᆟࠗৣэਈູࣼ0đّᆭđೂݔؽᆀ֥э߄ٚཟཌྷđҍᆟࠗৣэਈູࣼ1bඹ۱ѓႵྒݼ֥ሱэਈିܔሂᇾ1994୍֞2003୍֥ҍᆟࠗčৣࠇҍᆟٳಃĎหᆘđ෮ၛః༢ඔα,α,α,α2468ିܔّႋҍᆟٳಃ༯֥ҍᆟࠗৣིݔb ૌࣉྛၛ༯ቆဒğ 1. α=α;α=α;α=α;α=α. 12345678 ᆃቆဒ൞नᆴဒbૌ๙ݖࡥֆ֥tဒॉҳջႵྒݼ֥ሱэਈ֥༢ඔބაఃؓႋ֥҂ջྒݼ֥ሱэਈ֥༢ඔ൞ڎႵཁᇷ֥҂bೂݔཁᇷ҂ᄵඪૼҍᆟٳಃ༯֥ҍᆟࠗৣ 14
๙ݖֹٚᆟک֥ᆦԛྛູڿэਔ܄܋ሧֹؓ֒ླ֥ૹۋ؇b 2. α=α 1i2i ᆃቆဒႮఃჅ7۱ሱэਈট॥ᇅđ൞ٳֹ֥ဒđ๙ݖFဒđૌٳљॉҳᄝૄ۱܄܋҆đૄ۱ֹ֥ҍᆟࠗৣ൞ڎ֝ᇁֹэਈބఃؓႋ֥ջႵྒݼֹ֥эਈ֥༢ඔཁᇷ҂bFဒࢲݔཁᇷᆣૼđҍᆟٳಃ༯֥ҍᆟࠗৣିܔڿэֹٚᆟک܄܋ᆦԛડቀֹ֒܄܋ླ֥ૹۋ؇bೂݔ؟ඔֹ֥Fဒࢲݔཁᇷđପહູࣼҍᆟࠗৣಒൌ႕ཙਔֹ܄܋֥܂۳ིੱิ܂ਔႵ০֥ᆣऌb 3. ቋުđૌࡼሑэਈ֥༢ඔᆭҵ٢ᄝ݂߭ٚӱ֥ቐшđѩႨ༯૫֥ଆđٳљؓૄ۱܄܋҆ࣉྛܙ࠹ğ α−α=ξs+ηZ+ε (1) 2i1iiiiS൞սіགྷႵ܄܋թਈ֥эਈđࠇᆀႮ1998୍ھཛ܄܋֥ඣটޙਈĠZ൞ᇅ؇ބ൧ᆟэਈđ༯ѓiіൕֹbᆃ۱ଆٳਔֹٚ܄܋ᆦԛֹؓ֒܄܋ླ֥ૹۋ؇֥э߄ၹđطሢᇗॉҳ֝ᇁᆃུэ߄֥ჰၹb эਈZЇওਔoႵ߄pč٤ݓႵఒြ۽ြӁᆴა۽ြሹӁᆴ֥б২ĎaFDIčຓഅᆰࢤሧحა۽ြሹӁᆴ֥б২ĎaoӬ൧߄pބყෘຓᆦԛᅝሹᆦԛ֥б২bູਔԉٳॉ੮֞ᆃඹ۱ᆷѓ֥หᆘđૌ۴ऌFaguetč2004Ď֥ٚمđູૄ၂۱ֹܒᄯਔᇶေቆӮэਈčPCVsĎđٚӱč1Ď္ॖၛཿູğ α−α=ξs+ηZ+ηZ+...+ηZ+ε (2) 2i1ii1i12i24i4i༯ѓ1-4іൕख़߂ᇅ؇э߄֥ඹ۱ᇶေቆӮэਈb . ࡌഡ ؓႿᆃඹ۱҆č࢝ტaളބ၄ਏa܄ਫ਼ࡹഡaྛᆟܵĎđૌܱྏ֥൞эਈS֥༢ඔξđіൕֹٚ܄܋֥܂۳ିܔડቀֹ֒ླ֥ӱ؇bෛሢֹ֒܄܋ඣ֥ᄹࡆđ܄܋ڛༀ֥ш࠽ིႨ൞־ࡨ֥bᄝૄ۱҆đSЇওਔၛ༯ਆᇕᆷѓğč1Ď௹Ԛھᇕ܄܋ڛༀ֥թਈbႮႿႵֹܱყෘຓᆦԛ֥བྷ༥ඔऌᆺႵ1999-2002୍ඹ୍đ෮ၛૌࡼ1998୍ଌቔູ௹Ԛbбೂđᄝ࢝ტ҆đФࢳэਈ൞ᇏ࿐࢝ഽაཬ࿐ള֥б২đପહ௹Ԛ֥࢝ტ܄܋թਈࣼႨ1998୍֥໓ੱটіൕĠᄝളބ၄ਏ҆đሱэਈࣼ൞ૄຣದႚႵ֥၄ਏࠏܒԵ໊ඔđၹՎࡼᆃ۱ᆷѓᄝ1998୍֥ᆴቔູളބ၄ਏ҆௹Ԛ֥թਈĠᄝ܄ਫ਼ࡹഡ҆đሱэਈ൞ֆ໊ݓ૫ࠒ၂ࠩ܄ਫ਼֥ӱඔđᆃ۱ᆷѓᄝ1998୍֥ᆴࣼ൞௹Ԛթਈ 15
ᆴĠᄝࠎЧࡹഡބӬ൧ົ҆đሱэਈ൞ᄝھ֥҆ದन܄܋ሧඣđପહࡼھᆷѓᄝ1998୍֥ᆴቔູھ֥҆௹ԚթਈĠč2Ďޙਈઋުඣࠇᆀࣅ௧ӱ؇֥ᆷѓđّႋਔؓႿھᇕ܄܋֥ླӱ؇bбೂđᄝ࢝ტ҆đၹэਈ൞ᇏ࿐࢝ഽ࿐ളбđପહࣼႨ1998୍֥໓ੱটޙਈ࢝ტ֥ઋުӱ؇b ۴ऌш࠽ིႨ־ࡨمᄵđ௹Ԛ܄܋թਈᄀֹ֥ۚđֹٚ܄܋ᆦԛࣼႋھᄀഒbೂݔҍᆟٳಃМࣟ༯֥ҍᆟࠗৣֹ֤ٚᆟکᄝડቀֹ֒ླൈ۷ࡆૹۋđ္ࣼ൞ඪđֹٚᆟک֤܄܋֥ཨٮඣژކܿଆᄀཬaᄀཌྷර֥ಕุ֥ொݺčWallisބOates, 1988ĠBesley ބCoate, 1999Ďđପહॖၛყਘ֥൞đᄝᆃဢֹ֥đ܄܋֥܂۳ඣᄀઋުđࠇᆀᄝֹ֥֒ളࠃࠇᆀളӁ่ࡱ༯ؓႿᆃᇕ܄܋֥ླ۷ࡆࣅ௧đପહֹٚᆟکؓႿᆃᇕ܄܋֥܂۳ࡼ߶ᄀۚbၹՎđૌႵၛ༯ਆ۱ࡌഡğ (i). ೂݔҍᆟٳಃМࣟ༯֥ҍᆟࠗৣᄹࡆਔֹٚᆟک෮ิ܂֥܄܋ିܔડቀֹ֒܄܋ླ֥ૹۋ؇đପહ௹Ԛ܄܋թਈ֥༢ඔࡼູڵĠ (ii). ਸ਼၂ٚ૫đೂݔଆč2Ďᇏ֥Sିܔޙਈଖᇕ܄܋֥ઋުඣࠇᆀࣅ௧ӱ؇đطೂݔҍᆟࠗৣಒൌିܔᄹ఼ֹٚᆟک෮ิ܂֥܄܋ડቀֹ֒ं܄܋ླ֥ૹۋ؇đପહS֥༢ඔࡼ߶ູᆞb . नᆴဒ֥ࢲݔčဒ၂Ď і5൞नᆴဒğα=α;α=α;α=α;α=֥αࢲݔbՖі5ᇏૌॖၛؿགྷđ12345678ᄝ࢝ტ҆đα֥नᆴބα֥नᆴᄝ10%֥ཁᇷඣഈཁᇷ҂đطα֥नᆴބα֥न3456ᆴᄝ%֥ཁᇷඣഈཁᇷ҂Ġᄝളބ၄ਏ҆đαބαđαބαٳљᄝ10%֥1278ඣഈཁᇷ҂đطα֥नᆴބα֥नᆴᄝ5%֥ඣഈཁᇷ҂ĠᄝčۚĎ܄ਫ਼ࡹഡ56҆đαބαđαބα֥नᆴٳљᄝ%֥ඣഈཁᇷ҂ĠᄝࠎЧࡹഡބӬ൧ົ3478҆đαބαđαބα֥नᆴٳљᄝ3%ބ%֥ඣഈཁᇷ҂đಖطđαބα345612֥नᆴᆺᄝ15%֥ඣഈཁᇷĠᄝྛᆟܵ҆đαބαđαބα֥नᆴٳљᄝ%3456֥ඣഈཁᇷ҂đطαބα֥नᆴᆺᄝ16%֥ඣഈཁᇷbၛഈ༢ඔᆭࡗ֥ҵљᆣൌਔ12ҍᆟٳಃМࣟ༯֥ҍᆟࠗৣಒൌڿэਔᇏݓֹٚ܄܋֥܂۳ࢲܒb і5: नᆴဒ֥ࢲݔ 16
҆ эਈ ༢ඔ ѓሙҵ T࠹ᆴ Pᆴ region ࢝ტa .000135 1 *a -06 .0001263 2 pgdp a .00526 it3 *pgdpa .00661 .00628 4it pbe a .00001 -06 it5 *pbea -06 -06 6it pee a .000015 .000014 it7 *peea -06 .000016 8itregion ളބ၄ਏa .08282 1 *a .07760 2 pgdp a it3 *a pgdp 4it pbe a .00483 .00129 it5 *a pbe .00153 6it pee a .00925 .00849 it7 *a pee .00934 .00988 8itregion ܄ਫ਼a .92646 .68199 1 *a .63633 2 pgdp a it3 *pgdpa 4it pbe a .01052 it5 17
*pbea .01253 6it pee a .06918 it7 *peea .15743 .08061 8itࠎЧࡹഡބ region a 1Ӭ൧ົ *a 2 pgdp a it3 *pgdpa 4it pbe a .32974 it5 *pbea .39155 6it pee a it7 *peea 8itྛᆟܵ region a .59086 .45315 1 *a .42458 2 pgdp a it3 *a pgdp 4it pbe a .10231 .00707 it5 *a pbe .00598 .00840 6it pee a .04650 it7 *a pee .00272 .05409 8it ॉҳᄝ࢝ტ҆۲۱αᆴᆭࡗ֥ҵљđؿགྷҍᆟࠗৣބҍᆟٳಃౠཟႿࢆֹ֮֒࢝ტٚ૫֥܄܋ᆦԛඣb࣐ܵ๙ݖႄೆҍᆟࠗৣđದनGDP֥ᄹࡆؓႿ࢝ტ֥႕ཙ൞ᆞ֥đ൞αaαބα֥ژݼඪૼđႄೆҍᆟࠗৣުđֹ֥܄܋ᆦԛđႭః൞ყෘଽᆦԛؓ268 18
Ⴟ࢝ტ֥ᆦӻቔႨಏ൞ࡨഒਔđඪૼᄝҍᆟٳಃ֥Мࣟ༯đࠧ൞ყෘଽሧࣁؓႿ࢝ტ֥ᆦӻቔႨ္Фཤਔb ҍᆟࠗৣؓႿളބ၄ਏ֥҆ቔႨᇶေߎ൞ᆞ૫֥bՖі5ॖၛु֞đ࣐ܵყෘଽᆦԛؓႿള֥҆ᆦӻቔႨФཤđ൞ყෘຓᆦԛؓႿളބ၄ਏ֥҆ᆦӻቔႨФࡆ఼ਔđطα֥ᆴॖၛඪૼđҍᆟࠗৣཁᇷ֥ᄹࡆਔളބ၄ਏ֥҆܂۳ඣbܱႿᄝ2ႄೆҍᆟࠗৣުđࣜ࠶ؿᅚčႨದनGDPޙਈĎ֥ቔႨؿളਔᄸဢ֥э߄ѩ҂ૼಒb ᄝčۚĎ܄ਫ਼ࡹഡ҆đҍᆟࠗৣ֥ႄೆᄹࡆਔ܄ਫ਼ᆃᇕ܄܋֥܂۳ඣđՖі5*ॖၛु֞đᄝႄೆҍᆟࠗৣުđregionᆃ۱эਈؓႿۚ܄ਫ਼ૡ؇֥႕ཙູᆞč࣐ܵ҂ཁ*ᇷĎđֹٚᆟکყෘຓᆦԛpee֥༢ඔཁᇷູᆞđඪૼყෘຓᆦԛ֥႕ཙ൞ᆞ֥bਸ਼၂ٚ૫đ๙ݖбࢠαބαđૌؿགྷҍᆟࠗৣ߶ൡ؇ֹཤGDP֥ᄹӉؓႿ܄ਫ਼ࡹഡ֥႕ཙđᆃ34္ྸ൞ၹູ֒ყෘຓሧࣁளᅮൈđყෘଽᆦԛؓႿ܄܋ࡹഡ֥႕ཙ߶ࢠཬb ᄝࠎЧࡹഡބӬ൧ົ҆đαaαބαູڵđඪૼᄝႄೆҍᆟࠗৣުđყෘຓ248ᆦԛඣᄀ؟đᄝᆃ۱֥҆܄܋܂۳߶ᄀഒbෛሢֹٚᆟکؓႿყෘຓሧࣁཚႵ۷؟֥ഺჅಃđֹٚᆟک߶ᇯࡶࡼࠎЧࡹഡሧࢌ۳ႵఒြটປӮbყෘଽᆦԛؓႿࠎЧࡹഡ֥҆႕ཙᄝႄೆҍᆟࠗৣު൞ཁᇷᄹࡆ֥đၹՎೂݔֹٚᆟکФေሧࠎЧࡹഡđପહޓႵॖି๙ݖყෘଽᆦԛটؓࠎЧࡹഡࣉྛᆦӻđطყෘଽሧࣁ߶൳֞ഈ၂ࠩᆟکܲჴ֥ࡓܵb ᄝྛᆟܵ҆đႄೆҍᆟࠗৣ߶ᄹࡆᄝھ֥҆ᆦԛඣčॖၛՖαaαބα֥468ᆴुԛĎđඪૼყෘຓሧࣁܿଆ֥ঔնϴෛሢҍᆟٳಃ֥ࣉӱđՖطֹ֤ٚᆟک֥ܿଆᇯࡶளᅮb๙ݖі5مૼಒ֥ुԛֹэਈ֥ቔႨ൞ᄸဢэ߄֥b ሸഈ෮ඍđᄝҍᆟٳಃ֥Мࣟ༯ႄೆҍᆟࠗৣđ߶ᄹࡆ܄ਫ਼҆ބྛᆟ֥ܵ҆܄܋܂۳đѩ߶ൡ؇ᄹࡆളބ၄ਏ֥҆܄܋܂۳ඣĠཌྷّđ࢝ტ҆aࠎЧࡹഡބӬ൧ົ֥҆܂۳ඣ߶ࡨഒbॖđ܄܋֥܂۳ࢲܒթᄝ၂ུொҵđЧࢫ֥ࢲંބֻ҆ٳ֥ࢲંཌྷ၂ᇁb . Fဒ֥ࢲݔčဒؽĎ Ֆі6ૌॖၛु֞҂ડቀࡌഡα=αֹ֥֥ඔଢđ္ࣼ൞ᄝᆃֹུđҍᆟٳ1i2iಃМࣟ༯֥ҍᆟࠗৣಒൌڿэਔֹٚ܄܋֥܂۳ࢲܒbఃᇏ෮Ⴕֹᄝ࢝ტ֥҆ဒࢲ 19
ݔ൞ཁᇷ֥Ġ%ֹ֥ᄝۚ܄ਫ਼֥҆ဒࢲݔ൞ཁᇷ֥đ%ֹ֥ᄝളބ၄ਏ֥҆ࢲݔཁᇷĠᆺႵ20%ބ%ֹ֥ٳљᄝྛᆟܵބࠎЧࡹഡ֥҆ဒࢲݔཁᇷbᆃඪૼֹٚ܄܋֥܂۳ࢲܒᄝ࢝ტačۚĎ܄ਫ਼ࡹഡၛࠣളބ၄ਏ҆ؿളਔޓնӱ؇֥ڿэĠطᄝࠎЧࡹഡބྛᆟܵ҆ѩીႵն֥э߄bॉ੮֞ဒ၂֥ࢲݔđૌಪູᄝႄೆਔҍᆟࠗৣުđ࢝ტބ܄ਫ਼֥҆܄܋܂۳ࢲܒ֥ಒؿളਔޓն֥э߄Ġطᄝളބ၄ਏ҆đҍᆟٳಃѩીႵؓ܄܋֥܂۳ࢲܒӁളն֥႕ཙĠᄝࠎЧࡹഡބӬ൧ົ҆đᆃᇕэ߄ॖି൞թᄝ֥đ൞ܱႿ܄܋܂۳ࢲܒ֥ᆣऌѩ҂ૼಒb і6ğFဒ֥ࢲݔ ҆ ࢲݔཁᇷࢲݔཁᇷֹ֥ඔ֥б২ ࢝ტ30 100%ളބ၄ਏ % ܄ਫ਼%ࠎЧࡹഡބӬ൧ົ 5 % ྛᆟܵ 620% ࢤ༯টđܱႿဒ֥ٳ༅ࡼࠢᇏᄝၛ༯ඹ۱҆ğ࢝ტačۚĎ܄ਫ਼ࡹഡaളބ၄ਏၛࠣᆟکྛᆟܵb . ဒ֥ࢲݔ ဒॉҳਔथקֹэਈᆭҵα−αМު֥ჰၹđαބα൞ᄝࣉྛဒؽ2i1i1i2iൈളӮ֥bЧࢫ݂֥߭ଢ֥൞ॉҳ࣮ࣨ൞હჰၹ֝ᇁਔᄝႄೆਔҍᆟࠗৣބҍᆟٳಃުֹٚ܄܋܂۳֥ᄹࡆbႮႿଢభႵֹܱٚᆟکყෘຓᆦԛࢲܒ֥བྷ༥ྐ༏ᆺႵ1999-2002୍đ෮ၛૌ֥ඔऌॴ؇ᆺႵඹ୍bభ૫֥ٳ༅োරđૌ࿊౼1998୍֥܄܋ඣቔູؓႋ֥௹Ԛ܄܋թਈb๙ݖܒᄯᇶေၹэਈčPCVĎđ෮ႵႵܱᇅ؇э߄֥ၹđбೂğႵ߄aຓഅᆰࢤሧඣaӬ൧߄ބඹ୍টყෘຓሧࣁ֥ᄹӉ֩ФЇݣᄝඹົ֥ሱэਈPCVᇏb෮ၛđဒᆺླေࣉྛ၂ቆࡥֆ֥ቋཬؽӰ݂߭čOLSĎđૄ۱֥݂֥҆߭ࢲݔٳљཁൕᄝі7-10ᇏb . ࢝ტ Ֆі7ॖၛౢԣֹु֞đᄝ໓ੱᄀֹ֥ۚđ္ࣼ൞ؓ࢝ტླᄀֹ֥ۚđෛሢҍᆟٳಃМࣟ༯ҍᆟࠗৣ֥ႄೆđ࢝ტ֥҆܄܋܂۳ඣᄝ10%֥ඣഈཁᇷᄹࡆਔb 20
ᆃඪૼֹٚᆟکбᇏနᆟکؓႿֹ֥֒ླ۷ࡆૹۋb࣐ܵՖ໓ᅣֻ֥ؽ҆ٳބဒ၂ु֞đҍᆟࠗৣࢆ֮ਔֹٚ࢝ტ҆܄܋֥܂۳ඣđ൞ᄝᆃૌؿགྷđᄝ࢝ტඣᄀઋުֹ֥đؓႿ࢝ტ҆܄܋܂۳֥ш࠽ౠཟᄀۚbᆃဢ֥ࢲݔᄝགྷൌᇏ൞ޓႵॖି֥đၹֹູٚᆟک֥ყෘຓ࢝ტᆦԛ҂൞οб২ಒק֥đႚႵࢠ؟ҍᆟሱᇶಃֹ֥ٚᆟک൮༵߶ڿэֹ֒࢝ტઋު֥ሑঃb ၂ུPCV݂߭༢ඔູᆞܒӮਔັ֥ᆣऌඪૼđෛሢᇅ؇֥э۪đֹٚ܄܋֥܂۳ֹؓ֒ൌ࠽ླ֥ૹۋ؇ᄹ఼ਔb і7 Їݣหᆘ۴֥݂߭ii࢝ტ ၹэਈa_teh_ratio ໓ੱ*()PCV1 () () ()() ӈඔཛ()R-squared > F robust standard errors; ᇿ: (1) ওݼᇏཁൕਔt࠹ᆴĠ (2) ྒݼіൕ༢ඔ֥ཁᇷඣٳљູğ10%(*)đ 5%(**)ބ1%(***)b . ളބ၄ਏ ᄝളބ၄ਏ҆đ௹Ԛթਈᄀۚđھ֥҆܄܋܂۳ඣčᆃႨૄຣದႚႵ֥၄ਏࠏܒԵ໊ඔটޙਈĎ߶ᄝ1%֥ඣഈཁᇷࢆ֮đඪૼਔ௹Ԛթਈᄀۚđളބ၄ਏ֥҆܄܋܂۳ඣᄀ֮bᆃဢ֥ࢲંބш࠽ིႨ־ࡨܿੰཌྷ၂ᇁđᄝࣜ࠶ഈ္൞ޓགྷൌ֥ğෛሢҍᆟٳಃ֥ധೆđֹٚᆟک॥ᇅਔᄀটᄀ؟֥ҍᆟሧჷđ෮ၛ߶ᄹࡆཟઋުֹ֥ҍᆟೆbᆴ֤ᇿၩ֥൞đPCV1čࡗࢤุགྷਔႵ߄֥ၹĎ֥݂߭༢ඔᄝ10%֥ཁᇷඣഈູᆞđॖၛᄝ၂קӱ؇ഈඪૼđෛሢႵ߄֥ࣉӱđֹٚᆟکؓႿള҆܄܋܂۳֥ш࠽ౠཟᄹࡆਔđၹՎđᇏݓֹٚᆟک֥ᆯିሇэᆞӔሢᆞಒ֥ٚཟࣉྛb 21
і8 Їݣหᆘ۴֥݂߭iiളބ၄ਏ ၹэਈa_pbed 1998୍ଌૄຣದႚႵ֥၄ਏࠏܒԵ໊ඔ *** ()PCV1 *()() ()()ӈඔཛ*** ()R-squared > F ᇿ: (1) ওݼᇏཁൕਔt࠹ᆴĠ (2) ྒݼіൕ༢ඔ֥ཁᇷඣٳљູğ10%(*)đ 5%(**)ބ1%(***)b . čۚĎ܄ਫ਼ࡹഡ і9 Їݣหᆘ۴֥݂߭ii܄ਫ਼ ၹэਈa_phw2 1998୍ଌ၂ࠩ܄ਫ਼֥ૡ؇ **()PCV1 () () ()() ӈඔཛ***()R-squared > F ᇿ: (1) ওݼᇏཁൕਔt࠹ᆴĠ (2) ྒݼіൕ༢ඔ֥ཁᇷඣٳљູğ10%(*)đ 5%(**)ބ1%(***)b ଢభᄝᇏݓđčۚĎ܄ਫ਼ᇶေ൞Ⴎఒြࣉྛࡹഡ֥đಖطđֹٚᆟک߶๙ݖۄყၿྛվॻটᆦӻ܄ਫ਼ࡹഡbᆞೂֻ҆ٳ෮ൕđۚ܄ਫ਼ૡ؇აᆟکყෘຓᆦԛᆭࡗऎႵཁᇷ֥ཌྷܱྟbՖі9ॖၛु֞đᄝ1998୍ଌۚ܄ਫ਼ૡ؇ᄀֹ֥֮đҍᆟࠗৣ֤ۚ܄ਫ਼ 22
֥ૡ؇ᄹࡆ֥ᄀ؟đඪૼᄝ௹Ԛ܄ਫ਼่ࡱᄀҵֹ֥đေֹٚᆟکᄝ܄ਫ਼҆ࣉྛೆ֥ш࠽ౠཟᄀۚbሱэਈPCV֥݂߭༢ඔ࣐ܵ҂ཁᇷđ္൞ކެ౦֥ğෛሢႵ߄֥ࣉӱđၛࠣຓഅᆰࢤሧ֥ᄹࡆބყෘຓሧࣁб২֥ᄹࡆđေؓ܄ਫ਼ࡹഡ҆ࣉྛೆ֥ш࠽ౠཟ္߶ᄹࡆĠಖطđᄝӬ൧߄ඣᄀֹ֥֮đш࠽ౠཟཌྷؓᄀۚđඪૼᄝ܄ਫ਼ࡹഡ֥҆ೆඣ൞Ⴎш࠽ིႨ־ࡨܿੰथק֥b . ྛᆟܵ҆ ௹Ԛթਈč1998୍ದनྛᆟܵٮĎ֥݂߭༢ඔູᆞაࢫิԛ֥ࡌඪཌྷᙣđෙಖ݂֥߭ࢲݔѩ҂ཁᇷbಖطđुර؛֥ࢲݔൌႵఃМުധख़֥ࣜ࠶Мࣟğ1998୍ದनྛᆟܵٮᄀۚđ୍֥࣍ࠫྛᆟܵᆦԛ္ᄀۚඪૼਔđෛሢҍᆟٳಃ֥ࣉྛđᇏݓֹٚᆟک֥ܿଆᆞᄝᇯࡶ֥ளᅮĆ і10 Їݣหᆘ۴֥݂߭iiྛᆟܵ ၹэਈa_pbadm 1998୍ದनྛᆟܵٮ ()1998୍ದनـી൬ೆ ()()() PCV3 ()()ӈඔཛ *** () > F ᇿ: (1) ওݼᇏཁൕਔt࠹ᆴĠ (2) ྒݼіൕ༢ඔ֥ཁᇷඣٳљູğ10%(*)đ 5%(**)ބ1%(***)b 5. ࢲં 1994୍֥ҍᆟڿ۪đ္ࣼ൞ٳඥᇅڿ۪đࠞնֹڿэਔݓࡅ൬ೆٳุ༢ၛࠣᇏနᆟکބֹٚᆟکҍᆟ൬ೆି৯ᆭࡗ֥ؓбđಖطđᆦԛᄳᆭࡗ֥߃ٳѩໃቓԛཌྷႋ֥טᆜbֹٚᆟکֹؓඥ֥ܵཚႵ۷؟֥॥ᇅಃđՖطؓҍᆟሧჷ֥֥ഺჅಃࣉ၂҄ঔնbၹՎđ 23
Ⴟؽൗࡀϖ୍ս֥ҍᆟٳಃᄝ1994୍ٳඥᇅڿ۪ުѩીႵ๔ᆸbࠎЧഈđթᄝᇕֹؓٚᆟک֥ҍᆟࠗৣࠏᇅđ֤ҍᆟٳಃॖၛ࿃ົӻ༯ಀğᇏနᆟکཟֹٚᆟک֥ሇ၍ᆦڱĠᇏနބֹٚᆟکᆭࡗ֥ඥ൬ٳุᇅĠֹٚᆟکܿଆऍն֥ყෘຓ൬ೆބ٤ყෘሱԔࠎࣁb ҍᆟٳಃМࣟ༯֥ҍᆟࠗৣ҂ࣇཁᇷ֥ڿэਔ܄܋܂۳֥ࢲܒđطڿэਔᆟکყෘଽᆦԛଆൔބყෘຓᆦԛଆൔbݖಀ୍֥đෛሢყෘຓ൬ೆ֥҂؎ᄹࡆđᇏݓֹ֥ٚᆟکૼཁֹᄹࡆਔᄝ܄ਫ਼ࡹഡ҆đหљ൞ۚ܄ਫ਼ࡹഡഈ֥܄܋ᆦԛđၛ་ႄ۷؟֥ຓഅᆰࢤሧĠᄝളބ၄ਏ֥҆ყෘຓᆦԛ္Ⴕൡ؇֥ᄹࡆĠൈđֹٚᆟک֥ყෘຓᆦԛؓႿෛࠏؿള֥ሱಖᄙݝ۷ࡆૹۋb٤ӈᇗေ֥൞đෛሢֹٚࣜ࠶֥ؿᅚđყෘຓྛᆟܵٮбყෘଽ֥ྛᆟܵٮᄹࡆ֥۷ॹđᆃ္ࣼၩሢֹٚᆟک٤ᆞ֥ܿսࠏܒܦႛਔ۷؟֥ದჴটܵᇅھֹ֥൧ӆྛູbֹ֥ყෘଽᆦԛᇶေڵᄳࠎЧ֥܄܋ิ܂đೂğ࢝ტaӬ൧ົބᆦ୪bᄝ࢝ტ҆đֹٚᆟکყෘଽᆦԛбყෘຓᆦԛؓႿֹ֒ᄝ࢝ტٚ૫֥ླ۷ࡆૹۋbၹՎđᄝҍᆟٳಃ֥Мࣟ༯đҍᆟࠗৣ֝ᇁਔ෮໌܄܋ᆦԛ֥oொҵpčKeen ބMarchandđ1997Ďđ൞đᆃဢ֥ொҵ҂ࣇԛགྷᄝყෘଽᆦԛࢲܒބყෘຓᆦԛࢲܒᆭଽđطԛགྷᄝყෘଽބყෘຓᆦԛᆭࡗbЧ໓֥࣮ᆦӻਔQianބWeingastč1997đ1999Ď֥ܴׄğᇏݓֹٚᆟکᄝࣜ࠶ؿᅚᇏϲဆਔoսದp֥࢘đطᆃ۱࢘ᇶေ൞ႮყෘຓᆦԛটປӮ֥b ҍᆟࠗৣބყෘຓ൬ೆ൞ૡ్ཌྷܱ֥b۴ऌoҍᆟࠗৣp֥קၬđૌ࣮ਔᄝҍᆟٳಃМࣟ༯ҍᆟࠗৣؓႿ܄܋܂۳ֹؓ֒ൌ࠽ླေ֥ૹۋ؇֥႕ཙbᄝ࢝ტaളބ၄ਏačۚĎ܄ਫ਼ࡹഡ҆đҍᆟࠗৣބֹ֥֒ൌ࠽ླ൞ᆞཌྷܱ֥b࣐ܵದनყෘຓ࢝ტᆦԛෛሢದनGDP֥ᄹࡆطࡨഒđყෘຓ൬ೆބყෘଽ൬ೆ֥ٚཟэ߄߶ࡆ఼࢝ტ֥҆܄܋ڛༀֹؓ֒ൌ࠽ླေ֥ૹۋ؇đ္ࣼ൞ඪđҍᆟࠗৣ֤܄܋܂۳֥ш࠽ౠཟაֹ֒ं֥ொݺ۷ࡆࢤ࣍bᄝ໓ᅣֻඹ҆ٳ֥ဒᇏđژݼᆞಒ֥݂߭༢ඔඪૼđҍᆟٳಃМࣟ༯֥ҍᆟࠗৣࡆ఼ਔֹٚ܄܋܂۳ֹؓ֒ླ֥ૹۋ؇đᆃဢ֥ࢲݔބш࠽ིႨ־ࡨمᄵ္൞ཌྷ၂ᇁ֥b Ԣਔഈ૫෮ඪ֥oொҵpᆭຓđᇏݓ֥ҍᆟٳಃߎթᄝၛ༯ࠫ۱ᇶေ໙ีğֻ၂aֹٚᆟکყෘຓ൬ೆ֥ඥࠎޓնđᆟکࡼ߶ঔնఃܿଆđႿ൞ྛᆟܵᆦԛᄹࡆ֥؇ࡼ߶ॹႿࣜ࠶ؿᅚ֥؇đՖط֝ᇁֹ֒ंބ୪֥ڵքࡆᇗĠఃՑđᄝყෘຓᆦԛᇏթᄝܿଆБԏ־ࡨ֥൝đᆃၩሢყෘຓሧࣁ֥ᇂѩ҂൞ޓႵིੱđၹՎđ܄ᇙބದսіն߶ႵсေҰބླྀטყෘຓሧࣁ֥ᆦԛݖӱĠቋުđᆞೂૌ࣮෮ؿགྷ֥đӬ൧߄ࣉӱčၛ٤ 24
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