2001쓪9퓂뫾쓏쪦랶듳톧짧믡뿆톧톧놨ꆡ뗚30뻭뗚5웚JournalofSocialScienceofHunanNormalUniversitySept.,2001싛짌튵틸탐놾뗄뎤웚쫐뎡볛횵ퟮ듳뮯Ξ역붨룕(뫾쓏듳톧뷰죚톧풺,뫾쓏뎤즳ꆡ410079)햪ꆡ튪:놾뗄뎤웚쫐뎡볛횵ퟮ듳뮯평짌튵틸탐뗄믹놾뺭볃쒣쪽쯹뻶뚨ꆣ컒맺짌튵틸탐탨튪볓잿놾뗄햽싔맜샭ꆣ믹놾뺭볃쒣쪽ꆢ뺭볃쒣탍럖컶ꆢ돖탸웚맜샭뻟폐쓚퓚춳튻탔,쫇놾햽싔맜샭뗄폐킧럖컶랽램ꆣ맘볼듊:놾;뎤웚쫐뎡볛횵;햽싔맜샭훐춼럖샠뫅:F83ꆡꆡ컄쿗뇪쪶싫:Aꆡꆡ컄헂뇠뫅:100022529(2001)0520043203ꆡꆡ퓚컒맺짌튵틸탐뗄돉놾샻죳맜샭훐,춨뎣뇈뷏닺뢺햮맜샭틑돉캪쿖듺짌튵틸탐뺭펪맜샭뗄힢훘뛌웚샻죳뗄쒿뇪,벴틸탐뗄뺻쫕죫,쏦뛔뎤웚샻뫋탄쓚죝ꆣ쏀맺쟇훎퇇듳톧뷰죚톧뷌쫚JosephF.죳쒿뇪벴틸탐놾(믲쯹폐헟좨틦)뗄쫐뎡볛횵퓲뷏SinkeyJr퓚웤뻟폐맣랺펰쿬뗄ꆶ짌튵틸탐닆컱맜샭ꆷ짙믲뫜짙맘힢ꆣ쯦ퟅ샻싊뗄훰늽럅뾪뫍볓죫WTO튻쫩훐ퟷ돶쇋죧쿂뚨틥:닺뢺햮맜샭쫇튻훖좫랽뫳맺쓚뷰죚쫐뎡폫맺췢뷰죚쫐뎡뗄솪쾵룼볓쏜쟐,캻뗄맜샭랽램,벴캪쇋듯떽틸탐틑좷뚨뗄뺭펪쒿뇪,뷰죚쫐뎡뗄뇤뮯뛔짌튵틸탐뗄놾(믲쯹폐헟좨틦)뛔틸탐뗄룷훖튵컱뷸탐킭뗷맜샭ꆣ헢튻맜샭맽돌뗄볛횵뻟폐훘듳뗄펰쿬,뫶쫓헢튻뗣뻍믡펰쿬짌튵틸쪵훊퓚폚뛔틸탐닺뢺햮뇭훐룷훖헊뮧냼삨룷훖탐샻죳ퟮ듳뮯쒿뇪뗄쪵쿖ꆣ닺ꆢ뢺햮틔벰놾뗄뷰쮮욽ꆢ뇤뮯뫍쿠뮥횮볤뗄ퟩ튻ꆢ짌튵틸탐뗄믹놾뺭볃쒣쪽뫏뷸탐맦뮮ꆢ횧엤뫍뿘훆ꆣ닺뢺햮맜샭뗄맘볼뇤솿,뛌웚틢틥짏쫇틸탐뗄뺻쫕죫,뎤웚틢틥짏쫇틸탐짌튵틸탐쫇퓚쫐뎡뺭볃쳵볾쿂퓋ퟷ뗄ꆣ짌튵틸막좨뗄쫐뎡볛횵ꆣ\[1\(]P359)헢튻웄폐듺뇭탔뗄뚨틥잿탐ퟷ캪뺭볃ퟩ횯,쯼쏇뗄뺭볃믮뚯뿉틔폃ힷ쟳ퟔ짭뗷쇋놾뗄뎤웚쫐뎡볛횵쫇짌튵틸탐닺뢺햮맜샭킧틦ퟮ병뗄뺭볃쒣쪽살뷸탐럖컶ꆣ헢튻믹놾뺭볃쒣뗄맘볼뇤솿횮튻(믲헟쮵쫇훷튪쒿뇪)ꆣ헢튻뚨틥폫쪽뿉틔뇭쫶캪퓚쫜풴ꆢ벼쫵뫍짧믡풼쫸뗄쫐뎡뺭쪽(1)쯹뇭듯뗄믹놾뺭볃쒣쪽싟벭짏쫇튻훂뗄ꆣ볃쳥훆쿂,쒱쟳웤볛횵뗄ퟮ듳뮯ꆣ헢샯쯹캽볛횵횸틲닺뢺햮맜샭볈폐뛌웚틢틥짏뗄쓚죝폖폐뎤짌튵틸탐캴살뗄룷쿖뷰쇷솿쿖횵횮뫍ꆣ헢튻쒿뇪쒣웚틢틥짏뗄쓚죝,캪쇋폫횮쿠쟸뇰,놾컄붫짌튵틸탐쪽뿉폃릫쪽뇭쪾죧쿂:Mꛐ1ꛐힷ쟳웤놾뎤웚쫐뎡볛횵ퟮ듳뮯뗄랽쪽뫍맽돌돆캪2axPV=+놾뗄햽싔맜샭ꆣ1+i(1+2+ꆭꛐn+(1+ni)i)ꛐt=ꇆnꆡꆡ뛾ꆢ짌튵틸탐닺뢺햮맜샭뗄믡볆(1)tt=1(1+i)웤훐PV캪짌튵틸탐뗄볛횵,ꛐt캪짌튵틸탐퓚쒣탍럖컶뫍뺭볃쒣탍럖컶뗚t쓪뗄뺻쿖뷰쇷솿,i캪헛쿖싊ꆣꆡꆡ캪쇋쮵쏷짌튵틸탐놾햽싔맜샭뗄훘튪탔,쿂짏쫶믹놾뺭볃쒣쪽쫇듓뎤웚뺭펪뷇뛈살뚨틥쏦룹뻝짌튵틸탐뗄믹놾뺭볃쒣쪽ퟷ돶닺뢺햮맜샭뗄,쯼쳡돶쇋헢퇹튻훖뺭펪샭쓮:짌튵틸탐볛횵ퟮ듳뗄믡볆쒣탍럖컶뫍뺭볃쒣탍럖컶ꆣ샻죳ퟮ듳뮯쫇짌뮯쫇퓚뎤웚뺭펪맽돌훐(쪱볤짏뿉훁컞쟮)탎돉뗄ꆣ튵틸탐ힷ쟳뗄ퟮ훕쒿뇪,떫틸탐헻룶뺭펪맜샭맽돌Ξ쫕룥죕웚:2001206203믹뷰쿮쒿:맺볒쇴톧믹뷰캯풱믡믘맺죋풱뿆퇐훺쿮쒿(995003251)ퟷ헟볲뷩:역붨룕(19552),쓐,뫾쓏뎤즳죋,뫾쓏듳톧뷰죚톧풺뷌쫚,늩쪿짺떼쪦ꆣ43' 1994-2014 China Academic Journal Electronic Publishing House. All rights reserved.
폖폐뛌웚쒿뇪뫍뎤웚쒿뇪횮럖ꆣ뛌웚(춨뎣횸1쓪(1)샻싊뇤뮯잰틔쓚)쒿뇪힢훘뗄쫇틸탐뗄뺻쫕죫,춨맽믡볆쒣탍살닺뗄헊쏦볛횵=100떥캻뷸탐럖컶,샺쪷쫽뻝내헕믡볆ힼ퓲뒦샭,틸탐뗄펯샻닺뗄쫐뎡볛횵=100떥캻뛮퓚헊뇭짏뗃떽늻헛늻뿛뗄랴펳ꆣ뎤웚(춨뎣횸1뢺햮뗄헊쏦볛횵=90떥캻쓪틔짏)쒿뇪힢훘뗄쫇틸탐놾뗄쫐뎡볛횵,춨맽뺭뢺햮뗄쫐뎡볛횵=90떥캻볃쒣탍살뷸탐럖컶,캴살룷쓪뗄쿖뷰쇷솿춨맽쫊떱틸탐놾뗄쫐뎡볛횵=닺뗄쫐뎡볛횵-뢺햮뗄헛쿖싊헛쯣캪쿖횵,퓙뷸탐쟳뫍ꆢ뇈뷏뗈뗈ꆣ펦떱뗄쫐뎡볛횵=100-90=10떥캻쮵,놾뗄햽싔맜샭룼볓훘쫓뎤웚쒿뇪뫍뺭볃쒣탍(2)샻싊뇤뮯뫳럖컶ꆣ닺뫍뢺햮뗄헊쏦볛횵뻹늻룄뇤,떫쫇닺뗄퓚짌튵틸탐닺뢺햮맜샭뗄믡볆쒣탍훐,틸탐쫐뎡볛횵(PVa)폫뢺햮뗄쫐뎡볛횵(PV)l좴뚼랢짺뗄쎿막샻죳쫇웤뛌웚펪퓋훐맘볼뗄볛횵닢뛈ꆣ평폚쇋뇤뮯:뺻샻쾢쫕죫(뺻샻쾢쫕죫=샻쾢쫕죫-샻쾢돉놾)쫇틸탐펯샻뗄훷튪살풴,맊뺻샻쾢쫕죫벰웤뇟볊횵돉쇋닺뢺햮맜샭믡볆쒣탍뗄맘볼뇤솿ꆣ퓚닺뢺햮PVa=ꇆ510100+tt=1(1+13%)(1+13%5)맜샭뗄뺭볃쒣탍훐,짌튵틸탐닺폫뢺햮뗄쫐뎡볛=(떥캻)(2)횵뗄쏴룐탔쫇샻싊럧쿕럖컶뗄뫋탄,헢훖럖컶튪뾼싇떱잰뗄샻싊쮮욽폫틸탐캴살펯샻횮볤뗄맘쾵,튪=뾼싇떽샻싊뇤뮯뛔틸탐놾볛횵뗄펰쿬ꆣ폚쫇,틸1+12%+ꇆ5t=2(1+12%+t)(1+12%5)탐놾뗄쫐뎡볛횵뻍돉쇋닺뢺햮맜샭뺭볃쒣탍뗄=(떥캻)(3)맘볼뇤솿ꆣ쯹틔,룃틸탐놾뗄쫐뎡볛횵쿖춨맽뻙샽쮵쏷믡볆쒣탍럖컶뫍뺭볃쒣탍럖컶PVc==(떥캻)ꆣ럖뇰퓚짌튵틸탐뺭펪맜샭훐뗄ퟷ폃ꆣ샻싊뷶쳡룟쇋3룶냙럖뗣,뻍쪹뗃짌튵틸탐볙짨튻짌튵틸탐뷡릹볲떥,뷶듦퓚튻뇊5쓪웚놾뗄쫐뎡볛횵평10떥캻쿂붵떽떥캻,뿉볻룃틸만뚨샻싊캪10%뗄닺,릲100떥캻,웤뷰살풴쫇탐닺폫뢺햮뷡릹뫜늻뛔돆,뾹럧쿕쓜솦닮ꆣ1쓪웚샻싊캪9%뗄뢺햮,릲90떥캻듓짌튵틸탐놾뗄뎤웚쫐뎡볛횵뷇뛈살뾴,돖,햹럹캪1%ꆣ틸탐뗄막좨(놾)캪10룶떥캻,막좨돋쫽쿠펦뗘뗈탸웚쫇튻룶럇뎣훘튪뗄룅쓮,헢쫇틲캪짌튵틸탐쒳폚10튻닺믲뢺햮뗄쫐뎡볛횵뗄뇤뮯싊뷼쯆뗈폚룃닺(100/10)ꆣ룃틸탐쓪샻쾢쫕죫캪10떥캻(쿖뷰쇷죫),쓪샻쾢횧돶캪떥캻(쿖뷰쇷돶),늻뾼싇믲뢺햮뗄돖탸웚폫뛔펦뗄샻싊뇤뮯솿뗄돋믽,벴:쮰쫕ꆣ쯹틔뺻샻쾢쫕죫캪떥캻(쿖뷰쇷죫)ꆣ죧ꇷPV/PV=ꆪDꇁꇷi(늻쓑췆떼돶듋쪽)(4)맻샻싊퓚5쓪쓚뚼늻랢짺뇤뮯,틸탐뗄뺻쫕죫뫍막웤훐좨볛횵틠늻믡룄뇤ꆣ쿖볙짨떱룃틸탐5쓪웚닺룕D룕탎돉횮뫳,쫐뎡짏뛔펦폚룃닺폫뢺햮뗄뷰죚닺(돖탸웚)=ꇆnPtꆤt/ꇆnPt(5)t=1(1+ti)t=1(1+ti)욷뗄샻싊뷴뷓ퟅ럖뇰쳡룟쇋300룶믹뗣,벴폫룃Pt캪퓚쪱볤t샻쾢쫕죫뫍놾뷰뎥뮹뗄풤웚쿖뷰닺뛔펦뗄뷰죚닺욷뗄샻싊짏짽떽쇷,ꇷi캪샻싊뗄뇤뮯솿ꆣ13%,폫룃뢺햮뛔펦뗄뷰죚닺욷뗄샻싊짏짽떽12%ꆣ맊듓뗚뛾쓪뾪(4)쪽횸돶,짌튵틸탐닺믲뢺햮뗄쫐뎡볛횵뇤쪼뚯폫웤샻싊뇤뚯랴쿲쿠맘,틸탐뷰죚릤뻟뗄쫐뎡럧,쓪뢺햮돉놾쳡룟떽떥캻,닺뗄쓪샻쾢쫕죫놣돖늻뇤(5쓪웚만뚨샻싊),쓪뺻샻쾢쫕죫쿂붵쿕폫웤돖탸웚돊쿟탔맘쾵,돖탸웚풽뎤,샻싊뇤뚯틽떽웰뗄닺믲뢺햮뗄쫐뎡볛횵뇤뚯싊풽듳,틸탐놾떥캻ꆣ틔짏뗄뇤뮯벰웤럖컶랴펳쇋믡볆쒣탍뗄놾훊,럖컶뗄붹뗣쫇뺻샻쾢쫕죫ꆣ폫횮늻춬뗄쫐뎡볛횵뗄헱뚯럹뛈튲뻍풽듳ꆣ,뺭볃쒣탍럖컶퓲냑붹뗣럅퓚틸탐놾쫐뎡볛횵뗄뇤뮯놾샽훐,닺뗄돖탸웚캪짏ꆣ퓚쫐뎡샻싊뇤뚯횮잰,틸탐놾뗄쫐뎡볛횵쫇ꆡDa10떥캻,뛸쫐뎡샻싊뇤뚯횮뫳,틸탐놾뗄쫐뎡볛1010+1+(1+)2ꇁ102+(1+)3ꇁ103+(1+)4ꇁ1104+(1+)5ꇁ5횵쿂붵떽=떥캻ꆣ뗃돶헢튻뷡맻뗄볆쯣맽돌죧++1+(1+)2+(1+)3+(1+)4(1+)5쿂:=(6)44' 1994-2014 China Academic Journal Electronic Publishing House. All rights reserved.
뢺햮뗄돖탸웚Dl캪1쓪(떽웚튻듎뎥뢶놾쾢뗄쒣탍럖컶쫴폚햽싔탔퇐뺿,믡볆쒣탍럖컶쫴폚햽쫵뷰죚릤뻟,돖탸웚뗈폚웚쿞)ꆣ탔퇐뺿,뺫쏷뗄틸탐맜샭헟늻믡횻욫훘폚웤훐뗄튻놾샽훐,퓚닺뫍뢺햮뛔펦뗄뷰죚닺욷뗄샻싊훖,뛸쫇붫솽훖랽램춬쪱폃폚틸탐닺폫뢺햮뗄킭뇤뮯ꇷi뻹캪3%뗄쳵볾쿂,틲Da=>Dl=1,뗷맜샭횮훐ꆣ\[2\(]P22)맊닺뗄쫐뎡볛횵뗄쿂붵싊듳듳룟폚뢺햮뗄쫐뎡볛컒맺짌튵틸탐맜샭죋풱짐좱랦놾뗄뎤웚쫐뎡횵뗄쿂붵싊,틲뛸짌튵틸탐놾뗄쫐뎡볛횵쯰쪧쿠볛횵ퟮ듳뮯뗄뺭펪샭쓮,뛔샻싊뇤뮯좱랦뇘튪뗄쏴떱퇏훘ꆣ룐탔ꆣ탅듻뻶닟뎣뎣듓뿍뮧탅폃뫍뛌웚킧틦뾼싇뗃ꆡꆡ죽ꆢ볓잿짌튵틸탐뗄놾햽싔맜샭뷏뛠,듓쫐뎡뇤뮯(냼삨샻싊뇤뮯)뫍닺뢺햮뷡릹뗄뛔돆탔뾼싇뗃뷏짙,죧튪폶떽놾컄샽훐뗄쟩뿶,틸ꆡꆡ놾컄뻙샽쯹ퟷ뗄럖컶뇭쏷,짌튵틸탐튪ힷ쟳웤탐뻍믡퓢떽닒훘뗄쯰쪧ꆣ짌튵틸탐풴뗄엤훃펦듓놾뗄뎤웚쫐뎡볛횵ퟮ듳뮯,뺭볃쒣탍럖컶쫇늻뿉놾뗄뎤웚쫐뎡볛횵ퟮ듳뮯ퟅ퇛,뛌웚탐캪펦럾듓좱짙뗄,떥뾿믡볆쒣탍럖컶뷡맻늻쓜쮵쏷컊쳢,뺭볃폚뎤웚쒿뇪ꆣ퓚죕뎣맜샭맽돌훐,컒맺짌튵틸탐죴쒣탍럖컶뗄뷡맻뿉ퟷ캪짌튵틸탐놾햽싔맜샭뗄훘냑놾햽싔맜샭쮼쿫ꆢ뺭볃쒣탍럖컶랽램뫍돖탸웚튪틀뻝ꆣ떫탨횸돶,믡볆쒣탍럖컶폫뺭볃쒣탍럖컶맜샭랽램폐믺뗘솪쾵퓚튻웰,늢퓚쪵볹훐볓틔퓋폃,늻쫇뮥쳦뗄,뛸쫇뮥늹뗄ꆣ뺭볃쒣탍럖컶뎣뎣탨튪붫폐샻폚펦뛔볓죫WTO뫳쏦쇙뗄쳴햽,폐샻뗘쳡룟믡볆뫋쯣뗄뷡맻ꆣ뺭볃쒣탍럖컶훐,춨맽럖컶퇐뺿컒맺짌튵틸탐뗄뺺헹솦ꆣ샻싊쮮욽벰샻싊뇤뮯뗃돶쇋틸탐놾뗄쿖횵늢헆컕쇋틸탐쯹폐닺ꆢ뢺햮믲폐햮좨뛔캴풤웚샻싊뇤뮯닎뾼컄쿗:뗄쏴룐탔,듓뛸폐샻폚뛔잱퓚컊쳢뗄풤럀믲ힼ놸뫃\[1\J]쫊떱뗄펦뇤듫쪩ꆣ춨맽믡볆쒣탍럖컶,퓲뿉뗃횪샻\[M\].NewYork:MacmillamPublishingCompany,1992.싊럧쿕뫎쪱퓚틸탐헊쏦짏랴펳돶살ꆣ뿉틔쮵\[2\역]붨룕,컒맺짌튵틸탐닺뢺햮뇈샽맜샭퇐뺿\[M\]뎤.,뺭볃즳:뫾쓏죋쏱돶냦짧,ꆯsCapitalPENGJian2gang(CollegeofFinance,HunanUniversity,Changsha,Hunan410079,China)Abstract:Themaximizationoflong2termmarketvaluedependsonthecommercialbankꆯ,theanalysisofeconomicmodelandthedurationmanagement,:capital;long2termmarketvalue;strategicmanagement45' 1994-2014 China Academic Journal Electronic Publishing House. All rights reserved.
