ᇿҨݓ࠽ሧٳ༅ഽॉ൫ ܄ൔ൭ҨčúĎ z ҍༀ߶࠹ބҍༀБіٳ༅ z ܢಃקࡎބٳ༅ z ܄ඳҍༀ z ࣜ࠶࿐ ᇏݓᆣಊြླྀ߶ 1
ଢ 1. ҍༀ߶࠹ބҍༀБіٳ༅..........................................................................................................4 GAAP: ሧӁđڵᅏބܢתಃၭ...........................................................................................4 ሧӁğಒಪđקࡎބٳো.............................................................................................4 ҍӁđӌٜđഡСࠣྙሧӁ...............................................................................4 ҍༀБۡބҍༀБіٳ༅....................................................................................................4 ૄܢ൬ၭ.........................................................................................................................4 ૄܢ൬ၭ֥࠹ෘ......................................................................................................4 ႨEPSؓ܄ඳקࡎ...................................................................................................4 ႔০ି৯ބڄག֥ٳ༅۽ऎ................................................................................................5 ႔০ି৯ٳ༅.................................................................................................................5 ሧӁ൬ၭੱ..............................................................................................................5 ROCE........................................................................................................................6 ڄགٳ༅.........................................................................................................................7 ؋௹ੀྟڄག......................................................................................................7 Ӊ௹ౢӊڄག..........................................................................................................7 ӻٳ༅.........................................................................................................................7 2. ܢಃקࡎބٳ༅.........................................................................................................................7 ௴๙ܢקࡎଆ....................................................................................................................7 ܢ০์གྷଆ.................................................................................................................7 ਬᄹӉଆ..............................................................................................................7 ܥקᄹӉଆ..........................................................................................................8 ሱႮགྷࣁੀଆ.............................................................................................................8 ཌྷؓࡎᆴ֥ޙਈ.............................................................................................................9 ൧႔ੱ......................................................................................................................9 3. ܄ඳҍༀ.....................................................................................................................................9 ܄ඳҍༀࠎԤ........................................................................................................................9 གྷࣁੀ์གྷ.....................................................................................................................9 ሧЧყෘ.......................................................................................................................10 ሧथҦѓሙ........................................................................................................10 ሧЧӮЧ................................................................................................................10 ؋௹ವሧथҦ......................................................................................................................15 ؋௹ವሧ.......................................................................................................................15 ੀሧӁವሧ........................................................................................................15 གྷࣁܵ.......................................................................................................................15 ሧЧࢲܒބܢ০ᆟҦ..........................................................................................................16 ۗۆބ܄ඳ֥ࡎᆴ.......................................................................................................16 ᇏݓᆣಊြླྀ߶ 2
4. ࣜ࠶࿐.......................................................................................................................................17 ޡܴࣜ࠶࿐..........................................................................................................................17 ݓ൬ೆބࡎ֥۬ޙਈ...............................................................................................17 Ӂ൧ӆ֥नޙ...........................................................................................................19 ࠊл൧ӆनޙ...............................................................................................................20 ࠊлླ................................................................................................................20 ࠊл൧ӆनޙğLM౷ཌ......................................................................................21 ࣜ࠶नޙބሹླ.......................................................................................................21 ሹླ....................................................................................................................21 ሹ܂۳ބӁaসༀࡎ֥۬थקၹ.......................................................................22 ሹ܂۳č؋௹Ď....................................................................................................22 ޡܴ࿐..........................................................................................................................22 ๙ࠊளᅮ.......................................................................................................................22 ࣜ࠶ᄹӉ.......................................................................................................................22 ࣜ࠶ᇛ௹.......................................................................................................................23 ݓ࠽ࣜ࠶࿐ބຓ߸൧ӆ......................................................................................................24 ष٢ࣜ࠶༯֥ޡܴࣜ࠶࿐...........................................................................................24 ݓ࠽൬ᆦބሧЧੀ............................................................................................24 ߸ੱ...............................................................................................................................27 ᇏနၿྛބࠊлᆟҦ...................................................................................................30 ᇏݓᆣಊြླྀ߶ 3
1. ҍༀ߶࠹ބҍༀБіٳ༅ GAAP: ሧӁđڵᅏބܢתಃၭ ሧӁğಒಪđקࡎބٳো ҍӁđӌٜđഡСࠣྙሧӁ ᅼࣸٚم ᆰཌم ᅼࣸحĢčԚӮЧĒ࣪җᆴĎ/ Ⴈ୍ཋ ࡆᅼࣸم චПჅح־ࡨم ᅼࣸحĢ ᅼࣸੱ୍Ԛᅫ૫ࡎᆴ Վԩđ ᅼࣸੱĢ1/ყ࠹Ⴈ୍ཋ ୍ཋሹބم ᅼࣸحĢčԚӮЧĒ࣪җᆴĎᅼࣸ༢ඔ Վԩđ n⋅(n+1)ᅼࣸ༢ඔĢყ࠹ഺ༯Ⴈ୍ཋ/SYD ఃᇏđSYD= ҍༀБۡބҍༀБіٳ༅ ૄܢ൬ၭ ૄܢ൬ၭ֥࠹ෘ EPS=ሹ႔০/௴๙ܢඔਈ ೂݔଖ୍ଽੀ๙֥ܢٺඔਈႵэ߄đᄵ܄ൔטᆜູ EPS=ሹ႔০/ࡆಃन֥௴๙ܢඔਈ ႨEPSؓ܄ඳקࡎ ܥקᄹӉ֥ܢ০์གྷଆčGordon-ShapiroĎ ᇏݓᆣಊြླྀ߶ 4
p⋅EPS⋅(1+g)0P= 0(k−g)Վԩđ P Ԛ൧ӆࡎ۬ 0g ᄹӉੱ k ಃၭӮЧ cp ܢ০ᆦڱੱ EPS t=0ൈ֥EPS ႔০ି৯ބڄག֥ٳ༅۽ऎ ႔০ି৯ٳ༅ ሧӁ൬ၭੱ ୍൬ၭੱ ୍൬ၭੱĢ୍൬ၭ/ሧح ሧӁ൬ၭੱ ROA=ሧӁ൬ၭੱĢ༏ඥభ০/ሹሧӁ ROA=č༏ඥభ০/ཧ൲൬ೆĎčཧ൲൬ೆ/ሹሧӁĎ= EMR⋅ATR Վԩđ EMR=ર০ੱ=༏ඥభ০/ཧ൲൬ೆ ATR=ሧӁᇛሇੱ=ཧ൲൬ೆ/ሹሧӁ ሹሧӁ൬ၭੱ ሹሧӁ൬ၭੱĢ༏ඥభ০/ሹሧӁ ႏᄎሧӁ൬ၭੱ ႏᄎሧӁ൬ၭੱĢOEBIT/ႏᄎሧӁ ٤ႏᄎሧӁ൬ၭੱ ٤ႏᄎሧӁ൬ၭੱĢ(EBIT-OEBIT)/čሹሧӁĒႏᄎሧӁĎ Վԩđ OEBIT ༏ඥభႏြ০ ROOA ႏᄎሧӁ൬ၭੱ RONOA ٤ႏᄎሧӁ൬ၭੱ ROTAॖुູਆ҆ٳ֥न൬ၭੱ ᇏݓᆣಊြླྀ߶ 5
ROTA=ROOA⋅x+RONOA⋅x 12Վԩđ x ႏᄎሧӁಃᇗčႏᄎሧӁ/ሹሧӁĎ 1x ٤ႏᄎሧӁಃᇗčx=1−xĎ ROCE ܢಃ൬ၭੱčROEĎބ௴๙ܢ൬ၭੱčROCEĎ ࣪০ U
༏ඥభ০ ০༏ٮႨ
ROE== ಃၭಃၭॖၛཿູđ ⎡༏ඥభ০ ০༏ٮႨ⎤ROE=(1−t)⋅⎢⎥ಃၭ⎣⎦ROA×ሧӁĒi×ڵᅏ=(1−t)⋅ಃၭ⎡ಃၭĐڵᅏڵᅏ⎤=(1−t)⋅ROA×−i× ⎢⎥ಃၭಃၭ⎣⎦ڵᅏ=(1−t)⋅ROA+(ROA-i)×ಃၭ=(1−t)⋅ROEbT ROEॖၛቔೂ༯ٳࢳ ROE=č࣪০/ඥభ০Ďčඥభ০/༏ඥభ০Ďč༏ඥభ০/ཧ൲൬ೆĎčཧ൲൬ೆ/ሹሧӁĎčሹሧӁ/ಃၭĎ Վԩđ i ሹᅏༀ֥न০ੱĢ০༏ٮႨ/ሹᅏༀ EBIT ༏ඥభ০ t ܄ඳ෮֤ඥඥੱ ඥభܢಃ൬ၭੱ EBTROEbT==ROA+(ROA−i)⋅(ڵᅏ/ಃၭ) EquityՎԩđ i ڵᅏ֥न০ੱĢ০༏ٮႨ/ሹᅏༀ EBT ෮֤ඥඥభ০ ᇏݓᆣಊြླྀ߶ 6
ڄགٳ༅ ؋௹ੀྟڄག ੀбੱ ੀሧӁ/ੀڵᅏ бੱ čੀሧӁĒթࠊĎ/ੀڵᅏ ࠇ čགྷࣁĐॖࢌၞᆣಊĐႋ൬ᅫॻĎ/ੀڵᅏ ႏᄎሧЧᇛሇੱ ཧ൲൬ೆ/नႏᄎሧЧ Ӊ௹ౢӊڄག ڵᅏбੱ ڵᅏ/ಃၭ ০༏ЌᅰПඔ ༏ඥభ০/০༏ٮႨ ӻٳ༅ Fӻཧ൲حĢ mՎԩđ s ֆ໊Ӂ൲ࡎ v ֆ໊ӁॖэӮЧ F ଖ၂ൈ௹ܥקӮЧ s−v=m ֆ໊ш࠽൬ၭ 2. ܢಃקࡎބٳ༅ ௴๙ܢקࡎଆ ܢ০์གྷଆ ਬᄹӉଆ DivP= 0kEՎԩđ P ૄܢܢࡎ 0Div ܢ০čࡌקູޚק֥Ď ᇏݓᆣಊြླྀ߶ 7
k ಃၭሧЧӮЧ ܥקᄹӉଆ ܥקᄹӉ֥ܢ০์གྷଆ Div1P= 0k−gEՎԩđ P ૄܢܢࡎ 0Div ֻ1௹ყ௹ܢ০ 1k ಃၭሧЧӮЧ Eg ܢ০ᄹӉੱčࡌקູޚק֥Ď Gordon Shapiroଆ EPS⋅π1P= 0k−(1−π)⋅rEՎԩđ P ૄܢܢࡎ 0EPS ֻ1௹֥ૄܢ൬ၭ 1π ܢ০ᆦڱੱ k ಃၭሧЧӮЧ E1−π ႔০թੱ r ܢಃ൬ၭੱ ሱႮགྷࣁੀଆ ࣪০ ࣪ཧ൲ح ĒӁཧ൲ӮЧ Ēཧ൲ٮႨđܵٮႨ Ēᅼࣸ Ģ༏ඥభ০ Ē০༏ Ģඥభ০ Ē෮֤ඥ Ģ࣪০ ᇏݓᆣಊြླྀ߶ 8
ሱႮགྷࣁੀčFCFĎ ༏ඥభႏြ০ Ē෮֤ඥčႨ༏ඥభ০ඥੱ࠹ෘĎ Đ٤ڱགྷٮႨčᅼࣸđᅏಃാሙС֩Ď Ē٤གྷࣁ൬ೆč߸ؑၭ֩Ď Ģሹགྷࣁੀ Ē࣪ႏᄎሧЧ֥ᄹࡆ Đ࣪ႏᄎሧЧ֥ࡨഒ ĒሧЧᆦԛčࡹᇽđࠏఖഡС֩Ď ĐܥקሧӁԩᇂ ĢՖࣜႏࠃࠆ౼֥ሱႮགྷࣁੀ ཌྷؓࡎᆴ֥ޙਈ ൧႔ੱ PP=EPS⋅ 0EՎԩđ P ૄܢܢࡎ 0EPS ૄܢ႔০ PE ൧႔ੱ 3. ܄ඳҍༀ ܄ඳҍༀࠎԤ གྷࣁੀ์གྷ ୍ࣁགྷᆴ nCFCF⎛1⎞གྷᆴĢ=⋅1− ∑⎜⎟tn(1+k)k(1+k)t=1⎝⎠Վԩđ CF ܥקགྷࣁੀ k ์གྷੱđࡌקູޚק֥ n གྷࣁੀ֥௹ඔ ୍ࣁᇔᆴ ᇏݓᆣಊြླྀ߶ 9
n⎛(1+k)−1⎞ᇔᆴĢCF⋅ ⎜⎟k⎝⎠Վԩđ CF ܥקགྷࣁੀ k ์གྷੱđࡌקູޚק֥ n གྷࣁੀ֥௹ඔ ሧЧყෘ ሧथҦѓሙ ࣪གྷᆴ NE(FCF)tNPV=−I+ 0∑t(1+WACC)t=1tՎԩđ I Ԛሧ 0E(FCF) ֻt௹ყ௹ሱႮགྷࣁੀ tWACC ֻt௹ࡆಃሧЧᣳгପ tN གྷࣁੀ֥௹ඔ NPV ࣪གྷᆴ ሧЧӮЧ ಃၭሧЧӮЧ CAPM k=R+(R−R)⋅β EfMfEՎԩđ k ಃၭሧЧӮЧ ER ڄག൬ၭੱ fR−R ൧ӆቆކ֥ყ௹൬ၭੱĒڄག൬ၭੱ Mfβ ಃၭ֥ȦᆴĢಃၭ֥༢ྟڄགࠇ൧ӆڄག E ಃၭ֥Ȧᆴॖ๙ݖ༯ਙ܄ൔ࠹ෘ ᇏݓᆣಊြླྀ߶ 10
D(1−t)Ecβ=β+β ADED(1−t)ED(1−t)+EcՎԩđ β ሧӁ֥Ȧᆴ Aβ ڵᅏ֥Ȧᆴ Dβ ಃၭ֥Ȧᆴ Et ܄ඳקࡎ෮࿊ᄴ֥܄ඳ෮֤ඥඥੱ cD ള༏ڵᅏ֥൧ӆࡎᆴ E ಃၭ֥൧ӆࡎᆴ ࡌקᅏༀ൞ڄག֥(β=0)đᄵ܄ඳሧӁ֥Ȧᆴູ DEβ=β AED(1−t)+Ecᆃᇕ౦ঃ༯đಃၭ֥Ȧᆴ(β)ູ ED⎛⎞β=β1+(1−t)⋅ EA⎜c⎟E⎝⎠ Modigliani-Miller Dk=k+(k−k)(1−T)⋅ EuudEՎԩđ k ಃၭӮЧčсླ֥ܢಃ൬ၭੱĎ Ek ປಆಃၭఒြ֥ܢಃ߭Бੱ uk ᅏༀӮЧčсླ֥ᅏༀ൬ၭੱĎ dT مקඥੱ D ᅏༀč൧ӆࡎᆴĎ E ಃၭč൧ӆࡎᆴĎ ਬᄹӉଆ Divk= EP0ᇏݓᆣಊြླྀ߶ 11
Վԩđ k ಃၭሧЧӮЧ EDiv ܢ০čࡌקູޚק֥Ď P ૄܢܢࡎ 0 ܥקᄹӉଆ Div1k=+g EP0Վԩđ k ಃၭሧЧӮЧ Eg ܢ০ᄹӉੱ Div ֻ1௹ყ௹ܢ০ 1P ૄܢ൧ӆࡎ۬ 0 ൧႔ੱٚم EPS1k= EPՎԩđ k ಃၭሧЧӮЧ EEPS tĢ1ൈყ௹ૄܢ႔০ 1P ֒భૄܢ൧ӆࡎ۬ Gordon Shapiroଆ EPS⋅π1k=+(1−π)⋅ROE EP0Վԩđ k ಃၭሧЧӮЧ EEPS tĢ1ൈૄܢ႔০ 1π ܢ০ᆦڱੱ P ૄܢܢࡎ 0ROE ܢಃ൬ၭੱ ᇏݓᆣಊြླྀ߶ 12
ᅏༀሧЧӮЧ ඥభᅏༀሧЧӮЧ CAPM k=R+(R−R)⋅β DfMfDՎԩđ k ᅏༀሧЧӮЧčᅏༀყ௹൬ၭੱĎ DR ڄག൬ၭੱ fR−R ൧ӆቆކ֥ყ௹ӑح൬ၭੱ Mfβ ᅏༀ֥ȦᆴĢᅏༀ֥༢ྟڄགࠇ൧ӆڄག D ֞௹൬ၭੱ Nk=w⋅YTM D∑iii=1Վԩđ k ᅏༀሧЧӮЧ Dw ᅏༀi֥ಃᇗ iYTM ᅏༀi֥֞௹൬ၭੱ i ඥުᅏༀሧЧӮЧ k=k⋅(1−t) DADcՎԩđ k ඥުᅏༀሧЧӮЧ DAk ඥభᅏༀሧЧӮЧ Dt ܄ඳ෮֤ඥඥੱ c ࡆಃनሧЧӮЧ ᇏݓᆣಊြླྀ߶ 13
DWACC=k⋅(1−t)+k DcEVVՎԩđ k ඥభᅏༀӮЧ Dk ಃၭӮЧ Et ܄ඳקࡎ෮࿊ᄴ֥܄ඳ෮֤ඥඥੱ cD ള༏ڵᅏ֥൧ӆࡎᆴ E ಃၭ֥൧ӆࡎᆴ V =E+D ೂݔ܄ඳႵႪ༵ܢđWACCэູ DWACC=k⋅(1−t)+k+k DcEPVVVՎԩđ k ඥުႪ༵ܢӮЧ PP Ⴊ༵ܢ֥൧ӆࡎᆴ V =E+D+P(Ч܄ൔᇏ) ܄ඳ෮֤ඥđ০༏Ҁ์ބሧЧӮЧ नඥੱ t=नඥੱĢඥ൬/ඥభ႔০ न০ੱ i=न০ੱĢ০༏/ڵᅏ ඥ؛֥ࡎᆴ k⋅D⋅tDcඥ؛֥ࡎᆴĢ=D⋅t ckDՎԩđ D ᅏༀ֥൧ӆࡎᆴ k ᅏༀӮЧ Dt न܄ඳ෮֤ඥඥੱ c ᇏݓᆣಊြླྀ߶ 14
؋௹ವሧथҦ ؋௹ವሧ ੀሧӁವሧ ࣪ႏᄎሧЧ ࣪ႏᄎሧЧĢੀሧӁĒੀڵᅏ Վԩđ ੀሧӁĢགྷࣁĐႋ൬ᅫॻĐթࠊ གྷࣁܵ թࠊᇛሇੱ Ӂཧ൲ӮЧ/թࠊ ႋ൬ᅫॻᇛሇੱ ཧ൲൬ೆ/ႋ൬ᅫॻ ႋڱᅫॻᇛሇੱ ܓೆჰҋਘ/ႋڱᅫॻ թࠊᇛሇ฿ඔ 365čࠇ360฿Ď/թࠊᇛሇੱ ႋ൬ᅫॻᇛሇ฿ඔ 365čࠇ360฿Ď/ႋ൬ᅫॻᇛሇੱ ႋڱᅫॻᇛሇ฿ඔ 365čࠇ360฿Ď/ႋڱᅫॻᇛሇੱ ႏᄎᇛ௹ թࠊᇛሇ฿ඔĐႋ൬ᅫॻᇛሇ฿ඔ གྷࣁᇛሇᇛ௹ ႏᄎᇛ௹Ēႋڱᅫॻᇛሇ฿ඔ न൬ᅫ௹ ႋ൬ᅫॻ365/ཧ൲൬ೆ ቋႪགྷࣁჅحčBaumolଆĎ 2FC Iᇏݓᆣಊြླྀ߶ 15
Վԩđ F ԛ൲ᆣಊԔࠢགྷࣁ֥ܥקӮЧ C ୍གྷࣁᆦԛ I ൧ӆᆣಊቆކ୍֥০༏ ଢѓགྷࣁჅحčMiller-OrrଆĎ 123⎡⎤3FσଢѓགྷࣁჅحĢZ=+L ⎢⎥4Idaily⎣⎦Վԩđ F ઙછᆣಊ֥ܥקӮЧ 2σ ૄರ࣪གྷࣁੀ֥ٚҵ L ܄ඳ෮थק֥ቋ֮གྷࣁӻႵਈ I ӻႵགྷࣁ֥ࠏ߶ӮЧ ሧЧࢲܒބܢ০ᆟҦ ۗۆބ܄ඳ֥ࡎᆴ ሱႮགྷࣁੀٚم NE(FCF)tV=−I+ 0∑t(1+WACC)t=1tՎԩđ V ܄ඳࡎᆴ E(FCF) ֻt௹֥ყ௹ሱႮགྷࣁੀ tWACC ֻt௹ࡆಃनሧЧӮЧ t ֻT௹܄ඳࡎᆴ֩Ⴟ FCFT+1 WACC−gՎԩđ T ሱႮགྷࣁੀᇯ௹ყҩ֥ࢩᆸൈׄ FCF ᇯ௹ყҩުֻ֥၂୍֥ሱႮགྷࣁੀđࡌקၛުၛg֥ᄹӉੱᄹӉ T+1WACC ࡆಃनሧЧӮЧčࡌഡູޚק֥Ď g T௹ުሱႮགྷࣁੀ֥ᄹӉੱčࡌקູޚק֥Ď ᇏݓᆣಊြླྀ߶ 16
܄ඳࡎᆴ V=D+E Վԩđ V ܄ඳࡎᆴ D ᅏༀč൧ӆࡎᆴĎ E ಃၭč൧ӆࡎᆴĎ MMקIčඥĎ EBITV=V=V=D+E= LUkAՎԩđ V ۗۆ܄ඳ֥ࡎᆴ LV ۗۆ܄ඳ֥ࡎᆴ UD ڵᅏč൧ӆࡎᆴĎ E ಃၭč൧ӆࡎᆴĎ EBIT ༏ඥభ০čࡌקູႥ࿃֥Ď k ሹሧЧӮЧčሧӁ൬ၭੱĎ A4. ࣜ࠶࿐ ޡܴࣜ࠶࿐ ݓ൬ೆބࡎ֥۬ޙਈ GNP Y=C+I+G+(X−M)+NIRA Վԩđ Y GNP C ದཨٮ I ሧ G ᆟکᆦԛ X ԛ१ M ࣉ१ NIRA টሱݓຓ֥ေ࣪൬ೆ X−M+NIRA ࣜӈᅫჅح ݓԥྐྵބࣜӈᅫჅح PGPCA=S+S−I=S−BD−I ᇏݓᆣಊြླྀ߶ 17
Վԩđ CA ࣜӈᅫჅح PS ದԥྐྵ GS ᆟکԥྐྵ PGS+S ݓԥྐྵ(S) BD ყෘԅሳ I ሧ ࡎ۬ᆷඔğGDPࡨᆷඔބཨٮࡎ۬ᆷඔ(CPI) p⋅q∑itititֻt୍GDPࡨᆷඔĢֻt୍ၬGDP/ֻt୍ᆇൌGDPĢ⋅100 *p⋅q∑iiti*p⋅q∑itiiֻt୍ཨٮࡎ۬ᆷඔĢ⋅100 **p⋅q∑iiiՎԩđ p ቋᇔӁࠇসༀiᄝֻt୍֥ࡎ۬ itq ቋᇔӁࠇসༀiᄝֻt୍֥ඔਈ it*p ቋᇔӁࠇসༀiᄝࠎ୍֥ࡎ۬ i*q ቋᇔӁࠇসༀiᄝഅথሰᇏ֥ඔਈ i ๙ࠊளᅮੱ P−Ptt−1π= tPtՎԩđ P t௹ࡎ۬ඣčᆷඔĎ tP t-1௹ࡎ۬ඣčᆷඔĎ t−1π Ֆt-1௹֞t௹֥๙ࠊளᅮੱ t ൙ުٮ࿒ࡎٚӱ r≈i−π tttՎԩđ ᇏݓᆣಊြླྀ߶ 18
r Ֆt-1௹֞t௹֥ᆇൌ০ੱ ti Ֆt-1௹֞t௹֥ၬ০ੱ tπ Ֆt-1௹֞t௹֥๙ࠊளᅮੱ ᆇൌ൧ӆ֥नޙ ཨٮݦඔ DC=c+MPC(Y−T) 0Վԩđ DC ၩ჻֥ཨٮඣ c ࢩएཛӈඔ 0MPC ш࠽ཨٮౠཟ Y−T ॖᆦ൬ೆ ༐ຬ֥ሧඣ DDI=Y−C−G Վԩđ DI ༐ຬ֥ሧඣ DC ༐ຬ֥ཨٮඣ G ᆟکᆦԛ Y ሹӁԛ ყෘ႔Ⴥ BS=T−(G+TR+NINT) Վԩđ BS ყෘ႔Ⴥ T ඥ൬ TR ሇ၍ᆦڱ NINT ܄܋ᅏༀ֥࣪০༏ᆦڱ G ᆟکᆦԛ ᆟکܓઙӰඔ cMPC110Y=−⋅T+⋅I+G 1−MPC1MPC1−MPC1−MPCՎԩđ ᇏݓᆣಊြླྀ߶ 19
c ཨٮݦඔ֥ࢩएཛӈඔ 0MPC ш࠽ཨٮౠཟ T ඥ൬ I ሧ 1 ᆟکܓઙӰඔ 1−MPCG ᆟکᆦԛ Y ሹӁԛ ISܱ༢ Y=C(Y−T)+I(i)+G Վԩđ Y ሹӁԛ C(⋅) ದཨٮݦඔ Y−T ॖᆦ൬ೆ I(⋅) ሧݦඔ i ০ੱ G ᆟکᆦԛ Ӂބসༀ൧ӆ֥नޙ่ࡱ I+G=S+T Վԩđ I ሧ G ᆟکᆦԛ S ԥྐྵ T ඥ൬ ࠊл൧ӆनޙ ࠊлླ MD=L(Y,i)=b+b⋅Y−b⋅i 012PՎԩđ MD ၬࠊлླ P ၂Ϯࡎ۬ඣ L(⋅) ླݦඔ Y ᆇൌ൬ೆčӁԛĎ i ၬ০ੱ ᇏݓᆣಊြླྀ߶ 20
b ӈඔҕඔ 0b,b ᆞҕඔ 12 ࠊл൧ӆनޙğLM౷ཌ MSMD=≡L(Y,i) PPՎԩđ MS ၬࠊл܂۳čຓള֥Ď MD ၬࠊлླ P ၂Ϯࡎ۬ඣ L(⋅) ླݦඔ Y ᆇൌ൬ೆčӁԛĎ i ၬ০ੱ ࣜ࠶नޙބሹླ ሹླ DDAD=Y=C+I+G Վԩđ AD ሹླ Y ᆇൌ൬ೆčӁԛĎ DC ၩ჻֥ཨٮඣ DI ၩ჻֥ሧඣ G ᆟکᆦԛ ࠊлඔਈંčधؓਈ֥ྙൔĎ M⋅V=P⋅Y M⋅V⇒P=YՎԩđ M ࠊлඔਈ V ࠊлੀ๙؇đࠧࠊлթਈ၂୍ᇏᇛሇ֥Ցඔ P ၂Ϯࡎ۬ඣ Y ᆇൌ൬ೆčӁԛĎ ᇏݓᆣಊြླྀ߶ 21
ሹ܂۳ބӁaসༀࡎ֥۬थקၹ ሹ܂۳č؋௹Ď YP=E(P)⋅(1+µ)⋅F(1−,z) LՎԩđ P ࡎ۬ඣ E(P) ყ௹ࡎ۬ඣ µ ࡆӮб২ F(⋅) ݦඔ Y Ӂԛ L স৯ z ఃэਈ ޡܴ࿐ ๙ࠊளᅮ ႄೆყ௹֥٣০௴ථ౷ཌ e*π=π+α−β(u−u) tttt Վԩđ π ๙ࠊளᅮੱ teπ ყ௹t௹֥๙ࠊளᅮੱ tα ӈඔҕඔ β ᆞӈඔҕඔ *u−u t௹֥ᇛ௹ྟാြ ࣜ࠶ᄹӉ ളӁݦඔ Y=A⋅F(K,L) Վԩđ ᇏݓᆣಊြླྀ߶ 22
Y ሹӁԛ A ေളӁੱ F(⋅) ളӁݦඔ L ሹস܂۳ K ሹሧЧթਈ ᄹӉܒӮ֥ٚӱ ∆Y∆A∆K∆L=+ξ+ξ KLYAKlՎԩđ ∆Y Ӂԛ֥ᄹӉ Y∆A ളӁੱ֥ᄹӉ A∆K ሧЧթਈ֥ᄹӉ K∆L স܂۳֥ᄹӉ lK∂F(K,L)ξ=⋅ӁԛؓሧЧ֥ྟ KF(K,L)∂KL∂F(K,L)ξ=⋅Ӂԛؓস֥ྟ LF(K,L)∂ ࣜ࠶ᇛ௹ ෛࠏളӁੱԊࠌ Y=F(K,L)⋅Aε ttttՎԩđ Y t௹֥ሹӁԛ tF(⋅) ളӁݦඔ K,L t௹֥ሹሧЧބস܂۳ ttA t௹֥ෛࠏളӁੱԊࠌ tε t௹֥ေളӁੱ tᇏݓᆣಊြླྀ߶ 23
ݓ࠽ࣜ࠶࿐ބຓ߸൧ӆ ष٢ࣜ࠶༯֥ޡܴࣜ࠶࿐ ݓ࠽൬ᆦބሧЧੀ ݓ࠽൬ᆦᅬ BP=CA+KA−∆RA Վԩđ BP ݓ࠽൬ᆦ CA ࣜӈᅬ KA ሧЧᅬ ∆RA ܲٚԥСᅬ ष٢ࣜ࠶ᇏ֥ᆟکܓઙӰඔ 1∆Y=⋅∆G 1−MPC+m1Վԩđ ∆Y Ӂԛ֥э m ᆞӈඔҕඔčш࠽ࣉ१ౠཟĎ 1MPC ш࠽ཨٮౠཟ ∆G ᆟکᆦԛ֥э ष٢ࣜ࠶ᇏ֥ISܱ༢ Y=C+I+G−S⋅M+X realՎԩđ Y Ӂԛ C ದཨٮ I ሧ G ᆟکᆦԛ S ᆇൌ߸ੱ realX ԛ१ M ࣉ१čၛຓл࠹ࡎĎ ष٢ࣜ࠶ᇏӁބসༀ൧ӆ֥नޙ่ࡱ ՖGDP֤ԛ NX=S+(T−G)−I ᇏݓᆣಊြླྀ߶ 24
ՖGNP֤ԛ CA=S+(T−G)−I Վԩđ NX ࣪ԛ१ CA ࣜӈᅬჅح S ದԥྐྵ T−G ܄܋ԥྐྵ I ሧ ᆇൌ߸ੱ FSPnS= realPՎԩđ S ၬࠧ௹߸ੱčࡗࢤѓࡎمĎ nFP ၛຓݓࠊл࠹ࡎ֥ݓຓ၂Ϯࡎ۬ඣ P ၛЧݓࠊл࠹ࡎ֥ݓଽ၂Ϯࡎ۬ඣ સၞჅحބъᆴğઔཱུغĒীବ่ࡱ ∆X∆M∆Sreal−+>0 XMSrealՎԩđ ∆X ԛ१֥э߄б২ X∆M ࣉ१֥э߄б২ M∆Sreal ᆇൌ߸ੱ֥э߄б২ Sreal ष٢ࣜ࠶ᇏ֥नޙଆğսغĒڠঞૼଆ E(S)nY=C(Y−T)+I(i)+G+NX(Y,Y, F1+i−iFMSMD==L(Y,i) PPՎԩđ Y Ӂԛ C(⋅) ཨٮ ᇏݓᆣಊြླྀ߶ 25
T ඥ൬ I(⋅) ሧݦඔ i ০ੱ G ᆟکᆦԛ NX(⋅)࣪ԛ१ݦඔ Y ఃݓࡅሹӁԛ Fi ݓຓၬ০ੱ FE(S)ყ௹ၬࠧ௹߸ੱčࡗࢤѓࡎمĎ nMS ၬࠊл܂۳ MD ၬࠊлླ P ၂Ϯࡎ۬ඣ L(⋅) ླݦඔ ष٢ࣜ࠶ᇏ֥ሹླčսغĒڠঞૼଆᇏ֥ܥק߸ੱᇅ౦ྙĎ FS⋅PnAD=C(Y−T)+I(i−E(π)+G+NX(Y,Y,) FPՎԩđ C(⋅) ཨٮݦඔ Y ݓଽӁԛč൬ೆĎ T ඥ൬ I(⋅) ሧݦඔ i ݓଽၬ০ੱ E(π) ყ௹๙ࠊளᅮੱ G ᆟکᆦԛ NX(⋅) ࣪ԛ१ݦඔ Y ݓຓሹӁԛč൬ೆĎ FS ၬܥק߸ੱ nFP,P ݓଽބݓຓࡎ۬ඣ ᇏݓᆣಊြླྀ߶ 26
߸ੱ धؓܓઙ৯ࡎ PtS= tFPtՎԩđ S t௹ၬࠧ௹߸ੱ tFP t௹ၛຓл࠹ࡎ֥ݓຓ၂Ϯࡎ۬ඣ tP t௹ၛЧл࠹ࡎ֥ݓଽ၂Ϯࡎ۬ඣ t ཌྷؓܓઙ৯ࡎ S−S(1+π)Ftt−1ts==−1≈π−π tFS(1+π)−1Վԩđ s Ֆt௹֞t-1௹֥ཌྷؓࠧ௹߸ੱ tSt ௹֥ၬࠧ௹߸ੱ tFπ Ֆt௹֞t-1௹֥ݓຓ๙ࠊளᅮੱ tπ Ֆt௹֞t-1௹֥ݓଽ๙ࠊளᅮੱ t Ҁ֥০ੱࡎčCIPĎ F1+it−1,tFt−=−1≈i−i ttFS1+−1Վԩđ Ft−1,t−1 ჹ௹߸ੱ֥ཌྷؓശඣ St−1F Ֆt௹֞t-1௹֥ჹ௹߸ੱ t−1,tS t-1௹֥ၬࠧ௹߸ੱ t−1Fi Ֆt௹֞t-1௹֥ݓຓၬ০ੱ ti Ֆt௹֞t-1௹֥ݓଽၬ০ੱ t ᇏݓᆣಊြླྀ߶ 27
ໃҀ֥০ੱࡎčUIPĎ E(S)1+iFtt−1=−1≈i−i ttF1+−1Վԩđ E(S)t−1 ყ௹֥Чݓࠊл֥ཌྷؓъᆴੱ St−1Fi Ֆt௹֞t-1௹֥ݓຓၬ০ੱ ti Ֆt௹֞t-1௹֥ݓଽၬ০ੱ t ࠊлᆟҦٳ༅م ᇏနၿྛሧӁڵᅏіޚ֩ൔ CFMS=B+S⋅R+N nՎԩđ MS Чݓࠊл܂۳đࡌקࣇႮࠎԤࠊлܒӮ CB ᇏနၿྛӻႵ֥ЧݓᆣಊčӈඔཛĎ S ߸ੱ nFR ᇏနၿྛӻႵ֥ݓ࠽ԥСčၛຓݓࠊлູֆ໊Ď N ሧЧ࣪ᆴčఃĎđӈඔཛ ݓ࠽൬ᆦޚ֩ൔč۴ऌܲٚԥСބસၞჅح֤ԛĎ FF∆R=P⋅T Վԩđ T સၞჅحčࠧT=Y-EđEູݓଽᆦԛĎđ FP ݓຓࡎ۬ඣ સၞჅحބࠊлੀ֥৳༢ ∆MS=P⋅T ՎԩđPູݓଽࠊлࡎ۬ ࠊл൧ӆनޙ่ࡱ MSw=L(i,Y,) PPՎԩđ w ದӻႵሧӁ֥ၬࡎᆴđw=MS+Bđ B Чݓള༏ᆣಊࠇᅏಊ ᇏݓᆣಊြླྀ߶ 28
ӑטଆğࠎЧٚӱ E(s−s)*tt−1 i=i+st−1E(s−s)tt−1 =−θ⋅(s−s)st−1 m−p=φ⋅y−λ⋅i * y=u+δ⋅(p+s−p)+γ⋅y−σ⋅ip−ptt−1 =π⋅(y−y)pt−1Վԩđ *i,i Чݓބຓݓ০ੱ E(⋅) ყ௹ s ࠧ௹߸ੱčᆰࢤѓࡎمĎ֥ؓඔᆴ s s֥Ӊ௹नޙඣ m ݓଽࠊл܂۳֥ؓඔᆴ *p,p ݓଽࡎ۬ඣބݓຓࡎ۬ඣ֥ؓඔᆴ y,y ݓଽᆇൌ൬ೆčӁԛĎඣބy֥໗ඣ φ,λ,u,δ,γ,σ ӈඔҕඔ θ טᆜݦඔčఃҕඔބଆЌӻ၂ᇁĎ ሧӁቆކٳ༅م w=MS+B+S⋅Fn 1****w=MS+B+FSn**ఃᇏđB+B=BđF+F=F Վԩđ *w,w ݓଽބݓຓದ҆ሹҍڶ֥ၬࡎᆴ *MS,MSЧݓބຓݓࠊл܂۳čࡌקᆺႮࠎԤࠊлܒӮĎ B,F ٳљіൕದ҆෮ӻႵ֥ؓЧݓᆟکބຓݓᆟک֥ള༏ᅏಃđࠧᅏಊࠇᆣಊ ᇏݓᆣಊြླྀ߶ 29
**B,F ຓݓದ҆෮ӻႵ֥ؓЧݓᆟکބຓݓᆟک֥ള༏ᅏಃ B,F Чݓದ҆෮ӻႵ֥ؓЧݓᆟکބຓݓᆟک֥ള༏ᅏಃ S ၬ߸ੱ n ڄགശඣ E(S)−S*t−1tt−1φ=i−i− tttSt−1Վԩđ *i,i Чݓ০ੱބຓݓ০ੱ E(⋅) t-1௹֥ყ௹ t−1φ Ҁ߸ੱڄགބྐႨڄགҵၳᆭބ֥ڄགശඣ S t ௹֥ၬ߸ੱ ᇏနၿྛބࠊлᆟҦ ࠊлӰඔ 1+cM=m⋅Mđఃᇏđm= 10c+θՎԩđ M ࠊлթਈM 11m ࠊлӰඔ M ࠎԤࠊл 0c ࠊлླؓࠃ௹թॻ֥бੱ θ ԥСؓࠃ௹թॻ֥бੱ ᇏݓᆣಊြླྀ߶ 30
