뷌폽폫뺭볃2008쓪뗚1웚뷌폽뺭볃볆솿퇐뺿훐뗈횰튵뷌폽폫웕춨룟훐쪧튵헟쪧튵돖탸쪱볤뫍퓙뻍튵믺믡뗄닮틬럖컶캺솢욼1,키샻뫪2(1.쿃쏅듳톧닆헾쾵,뢣붨쿃쏅361005;2.뮪훐쪦랶듳톧뷌폽톧풺,뫾놱커몺430079)ꆡꆡ햪ꆡ튪:놾컄샻폃쫕벯떽뗄폐맘쿃쏅쫐돇헲뗷닩쪧튵뗇볇뗄퇹놾쫽뻝,펦폃짺듦쒣탍훐뗄럇닎쫽램뫍COX냫닎쫽램,뇈뷏럖컶쇋훐뗈횰튵뷌폽폫웕춨룟훐쪧튵헟퓚쪧튵돖탸쪱볤뫍퓙뻍튵믺믡짏뗄닮틬ꆣ솽훖뺭퇩럖컶뗄뷡맻뚼뇭쏷:뛾헟뗄쪧튵돖탸쪱볤뫍퓙뻍튵믺믡뻟폐쿔훸뗄닮틬ꆣ훐뗈횰튵뷌폽쪧튵헟뗄욽뻹쪧튵돖탸쪱볤뇈웕춨룟훐짙룶퓂,웤퓙뻍튵믺믡쫇웕춨룟훐뗄놶ꆣ맘볼듊:쪧튵돖탸쪱볤;럇닎쫽램;COX냫닎쫽램;럧쿕몯쫽;짺듦몯쫽훐춼럖샠뫅:F08;G40-54ꆡꆡꆡꆡꆡꆡꆡ컄쿗뇪쪶싫:A컄헂뇠뫅:1003-4870(2008)01-0040-05튻ꆢ퇐뺿놳뺰뛾ꆢ컄쿗믘맋뎤웚틔살,쪧튵컊쳢튻횱쫇룷맺헾뢮쏦쇙뗄튻맺췢뛔쪧튵헟쪧튵돖탸쪱볤뫍퓙뻍튵믺믡뗄퇐룶쓑틔뷢뻶뗄컊쳢ꆣ쪧튵늻뷶맘쾵떽쪧튵헟뗄컯훊뺿쪼폚20쫀볍70쓪듺쒩,훁뷱틑폐20뛠쓪뗄샺쪷,짺믮훊솿뫍탄샭붡뾵ힴ뿶,뛸쟒펰쿬맺볒뺭볃쳥훆믽샛쇋럡뢻뗄퇐뺿돉맻ꆣEhrenbergandOax[1]aca쫇뫍헾훎쳥훆룄룯쮳샻뷸탐,쫇짧믡늻뫍킳뗄훘튪펰ퟮ퓧뛔쪧튵헟퓙뻍튵뗄펰쿬틲쯘뷸탐쪵횤럖컶뗄톧쿬틲쯘,캣벰짧믡뗄컈뚨ꆣ틲듋,ퟔ20쫀볍80쓪듺헟횮튻,쯻쏇뗄퇐뺿랢쿖쪧튵뻈볃뷰퇓뎤쇋쪧튵돖탸틔살,솪뫏맺냑놣헏죋샠닎볓뺭볃믮뚯뗄좨솦,벴뻍쪱볤ꆣMortensen[2]춨맽뚯첬쯑톰쒣탍,럖컶쇋쪧튵튵좨훃폚럇뎣춻돶뗄뗘캻,쳘뇰쫇냑쪧튵헟믱뗃놣놣쿕뛔퓙뻍튵뗄펰쿬,쯻죏캪평폚쪧튵놣쿕붵뗍쇋쪧뮤뫍퓙뻍튵뗄좨솦ퟷ캪좫쟲얬솦뗄쒿뇪ꆣ컒맺헾뢮튵헟릤ퟷ쯑톰뚯솦춬쪱쳡룟쇋놣쇴릤,틲듋퇓뎤쇋룼쫇룟뛈훘쫓퓙뻍튵릤ퟷ,냑퓙뻍튵컊쳢럅퓚ꆰ쏱짺쪧튵돖탸쪱볤ꆣAtkinsonandMicklewrigh[3]t뗈볆솿횮놾ꆱ뗄폅쿈캻훃볓틔뾼싇ꆣ맺췢뗄뺭퇩뇭쏷,쿠뛔돶쇋쪧튵돖탸쪱볤쿠뛔폚놣쿕룸뢶뛮뛈뗄떯탔ꆣ폚틔뒫쫚횪쪶캪훷뗄웕춨뷌폽뛸퇔,횰튵뷌폽쫇뷢KatzandMey[4]er횤쪵쇋쪧튵놣쿕룸뢶웚폫쪧튵돖탸뻶쪧튵컊쳢,쳘뇰쫇뷡릹탔쪧튵컊쳢ퟮ폐킧뗄쫖뛎ꆣ쪱볤횮볤뗄헽쿠맘맘쾵ꆣDynarskiandSheffrin[5]퇐틲듋,횰튵뷌폽놻쏷좷뚨틥캪뻍튵뷌폽ꆣ훐맺뗄횰튵뷌폽쫇럱뻟폐헢퇹뗄릦킧?쿠뛔폚웕춨뷌폽쯼쓜뺿쇋쫜뷌폽돌뛈ꆢ엤얼쫇럱폐릤ퟷꆢ쪧튵싊ꆢ탔뇰뗈틲릻퓚뛠듳돌뛈짏쳡룟쪧튵헟뗄퓙뻍튵믺믡?캪듋쯘뛔쪧튵헟퓙뻍튵룅싊뗄펰쿬ꆣK[6]iefer럖컶쇋쪧튵,놾컄퓋폃짺듦쒣탍돖탸쪱볤폫죋솦놾횮볤뗄맘쾵ꆣCorak[7]퇐뺿쇋쪧,뺭퇩퇐뺿웕춨룟훐폫훐뗈횰튵뷌폽(냼삨횰튵룟훐ꆢ웕춨훐ꆢ돉죋훐뫍벼릤톧튵돖탸쪱볤뫍맽좥쪧튵뺭샺뗄맘쾵ꆣ틔짏컄쿗컞틉킣캪놾컄쳡릩쇋뿉뷨본뗄럖컶뿲볜ꆣ)쪧튵헟퓚쪧튵돖탸쪱볤뫍퓙뻍튵믺믡짏뗄닮틬,듓뛸캪헾뢮퓙뻍튵헾닟톡퓱쳡릩뿉뷨본뗄뺭퇩좻뛸,뛔훐맺쪧튵헟쪧튵돖탸쪱볤뫍퓙뻍튵믺쫽뻝ꆣ믡뷸탐뺭퇩퇐뺿뗄컄쿗뮹쿠떱폐쿞ꆣ듓쯹쫕벯뗄컄쿗짏뾴,SimonAppleton뗈[8]쫇ퟮ퓧뛔훐맺쿂룚횰쫕룥죕웚:2008-01-03ퟷ헟볲뷩:캺솢욼,얮,쏀맺UIUC듳톧뺭볃쾵럃컊톧헟,쿃쏅듳톧닆헾쾵뢱뷌쫚,샍뚯뺭볃퇐뺿훐탄뎣컱뢱훷죎,훷튪퇐뺿랽쿲캪샍뚯뺭볃톧ꆢ닆헾뫪맛헾닟;키샻뫪,쓐,뮪훐쪦랶듳톧뷌폽톧풺뢱뇠짳ꆶ,뷌폽폫뺭볃ꆷ퓓횾뢱훷뇠,훷튪퇐뺿랽쿲캪뷌폽뺭볃톧.40
릤퓙뻍튵펰쿬틲쯘뷸탐뺭퇩퇐뺿뗄톧헟,쯻쏇쪹폃컒쏇돆횮캪ퟳ뷘캲쫽뻝ꆣ떱좻,뮹폐뗄퇹놾쫽뻝뗄쪧1999쓪CASS뗄볒춥죫뮧뗷닩뗄4000룶퇹놾쫽튵돖탸쪱볤춬쪱쫇ퟳ폒뷘캲뗄,헢튲늻쫇튻룶뺫좷뗄뻝,퓋폃짺듦럖컶훐뗄냫닎쫽랽램,랢쿖뷌폽돌뛈풽쪧튵쪱볤쫽뻝ꆣ뗍뗄쿂룚횰릤,웤쪧튵돖탸쪱볤풽뎤ꆣBenuBidani뗚죽,쪧튵헟뗄룶죋쳘헷뫍짧믡뮷뺳퓚쪧튵돖뗈[9]춨맽뛔퓙뻍튵엠통쿮쒿닎볓헟폫럇닎볓헟뗄탸웚볤쓚쯦쪱볤뇤뮯뛸뇤뮯,뻟폐뚯첬탔ꆣ뇈뷏퇐뺿,뗃돶엠통퓚짲퇴쫐믡쿷죵뻍튵믺믡,떫퓚헫뛔쪧튵돖탸쪱볤뗄짏쫶쳘뗣,뺭볃톧볒뎣뎣커몺쫐믡룄짆뻍튵믺믡뗄뷡싛ꆣ십뾥뗈[10]펦폃짺닉폃짺듦쒣탍(durationmodel)살퇐뺿쪧튵돖탸쪱듦럖컶퇐뺿쇋놱뺩쫐쿂룚횰릤퓙뻍튵뗄펰쿬틲쯘,볤컊쳢,듓뛸돤럖샻폃뷘캲쫽뻝쯹쓜쳡릩뗄탅쾢ꆣ랢쿖뷌폽쮮욽풽뗍,쪧튵뗄돖탸쪱볤풽뎤,쪵쿖퓙뻍짺듦쒣탍뗄랽램폐3훖,럇닎쫽램ꆢCOX냫닎쫽램튵뗄믺믡풽짙ꆣ뛅럧솫[11]럖뇰럖컶쇋쓐탔폫얮탔뫍닎쫽램ꆣ평폚닎쫽램튪쟳뛔쪧튵돖탸쪱볤뗄럖늼쪧튵헟뗄쪧튵돖탸쪱볤뫍퓙뻍튵믺믡뗄펰쿬틲쯘,뷸탐볙뚨,튻떩뛔쪧튵돖탸쪱볤뗄볙짨폐컳,퓲볆솿랢쿖얮탔퓙뻍튵룅싊쫇쓐탔뗄놶ꆣ십돛돒[12]럖컶뗄뷡맻붫늻뻟헦쪵탔ꆣ럇닎쫽램뫍COX냫닎퓋폃짺듦쒣탍뛔쟠떺쫐쪧튵헟뗄뺭퇩퇐뺿뇭쏷,뷌쫽럖컶램늻탨튪뛔쪧튵돖탸쪱볤뗄럖늼뷸탐볙뚨ꆣ폽믡쯵뛌쪧튵돖탸쪱볤,쳡룟퓙뻍튵믺믡ꆣ쯹틔,놾컄뗄뺭퇩럖컶닉폃럇닎쫽뫍COX냫닎쫽틔짏쫇떽쒿잰캪횹맺쓚폐맘뛔훐맺쪧튵헟뗄쪧솽훖랽램럖뇰뷸탐뺭퇩럖컶,틔퓶잿뷡싛뗄뿉뾿탔ꆣ튵돖탸쪱볤뫍퓙뻍튵믺믡뷸탐뺭퇩퇐뺿뷶폐뗄컄놾뺭퇩럖컶뗄쫽뻝살풴쫇쿃쏅쫐돇헲뗷닩쪧튵쿗,컞틉헢킩퇐뺿뻟폐뾪뒴탔ꆣ헢킩뷶폐뗄컄쿗폐뗇볇뗄1261룶퇹놾쫽뻝,맛달뗄웰뗣뫍훕뗣쪱볤캪뗄쯤좻럖뇰퇐뺿쇋뷌폽믲쫇벼쓜엠통뛔쪧튵돖탸쪱2003쓪1퓂뫍2006쓪6퓂ꆣ컒쏇횻뾼싇2003쓪1볤뫍퓙뻍튵믺믡뗄펰쿬,떫쫇쎻폐뇈뷏뛾헟뗄닮틬,퓂틔뫳뷸죫쪧튵뗄헢킩퇹놾,듓뛸뇜쏢쇋퇹놾쫽뻝훐놾컄폻쳮늹헢튻뿕냗ꆣ뗄ퟳ뷘캲,쪹뗃퇹놾쫽뻝횻냼몬폒뷘캲ꆣ횮쯹틔냑죽ꆢ쫽뻝쏨쫶2003쓪ퟷ캪뾼달뗄웰뗣,튻랽쏦쫇틲캪죧맻쪧튵쪱볤톡퓱맽뎤,쪧튵헟뗄룶죋쳘탔벰헻룶짧믡뮷뺳믡랢쪧튵돖탸쪱볤쫇횸듓뷸죫쪧튵ힴ첬떽죫뻍튵짺뇤뮯,듓뛸펰쿬맀볆뗄ힼ좷탔;쇭튻랽쏦컒맺뗄룷ힴ첬쯹뺭샺뗄쪱볤ꆣ쪧튵돖탸쪱볤쫽뻝폐틔쿂벸뗣쿮믽벫뗄퓙뻍튵폅믝헾닟튲쫇듓2003쓪틔뫳닅뾪쪼쳘헷:훰늽쪵쪩뗄,퓚헢횮잰,훷튪쫇틔믹놾짺믮놣헏훆뛈ꆢ뗚튻,쪧튵돖탸쪱볤쫽뻝뗄럖늼폫뎣볻뗄춳볆쪧튵놣쿕훆뛈ꆢퟮ뗍짺믮놣헏훆뛈캪쳘뗣뗄쿻벫뗄쫕쫽뻝럖늼폐쏷쿔뗄늻춬,뎣돊횸쫽럖늼(exponential죫횧돖헾닟,헢퇹톡퓱뿉틔냑헾닟뇤솿튲냼삨뷸살ꆣdistribution)ꆢ췾늼럖늼(Weibulldistribution)뫍뛔쫽뻝뗄ퟜ쳥퇹놾뻟폐죧쿂춳볆쳘헷:쫽logistic럖늼(Log2logisticdistribution)ꆣ1.듓탔뇰릹돉뾴,쓐얮뇈샽럖뇰캪%뫍뗚뛾,쪧튵돖탸쪱볤쫽뻝뎣뎣냼몬뷘캲쫽뻝ꆣ쪧%ꆣ튵돖탸쪱볤쫽뻝럖캪췪좫쫽뻝뫍뷘캲쫽뻝(censord)ꆣ2.듓쓪쇤릹돉뾴,30-44쯪뗄쪧튵헟햼좫늿퇹쯹캽췪좫쫽뻝쫇횸쓜릻뺫좷믱뗃뗄쪧튵돖탸쪱볤뗄쫽놾뗄54%,40-44쯪쓪쇤뛎뗄쪧튵헟쯹햼뇈훘ퟮ듳,뻝ꆣ죧쪧튵헟헅쒳,웤퓚뗷닩웚볤뾪쪼쪱쪧튵,퓚뗷닩햼좫늿퇹놾ퟜ쫽뗄24%ꆣ웤훐,얮탔ퟮ벯훐뗄쓪쇤웚볤쪧튵뷡쫸,틲듋,룃퇹놾쪧튵쪱볤쫇튻룶췪좫쫽뛎쫇40-45쯪,햼얮탔퇹놾ퟜ쫽뗄35%;쓐탔ퟮ벯훐뻝ꆣ쯹캽뷘캲쫽뻝쫇횸늻쓜릻뺫좷믱뗃뗄쪧튵돖탸쪱뗄쓪쇤뛎쫇50쯪틔짏,햼쓐탔퇹놾ퟜ쫽뗄29%ꆣ볤뗄쫽뻝ꆣ뷘캲럖캪ퟳ뷘캲쫽뻝뫍폒뷘캲쫽뻝ꆣ샽3.듓쪧튵잰뗄웳튵탔훊뾴,48%살ퟔ폚맺폐웳죧,쪧튵헟샮쒳,쯻퓚뗷닩뾪쪼틔뫳뷸죫쪧튵,뗷닩뷡튵,웤듎쫇벯쳥웳튵,뛾헟뫏볆햼좫늿퇹놾뗄72%ꆣ쫸쪱늢쎻폐죫뻍튵ힴ첬,뛔헢룶퇹놾컒쏇쯹쓜맛달4.듓쪧튵헟뗄쪧튵돖탸쪱볤짏뾴,쪧튵뗄욽뻹뗄쪧튵돖탸쪱볤횻쫇떽뗷닩뷡쫸쪱쯻헽퓚쪧튵뗄쪱돖탸쪱볤캪룶퓂,웤훐튻냫틔짏뗄쪧튵돖탸쪱볤,떫헢늻쫇쯻뺫좷뗄쪧튵돖탸쪱볤,틲캪퓚뗷닩뷡쫸볤뎬맽19룶퓂,75%뗄쪧튵돖탸쪱볤뎬맽7룶퓂ꆣ뫳쯻뿉쓜볌탸쪧튵ꆣ헢훖퇹놾쫽뻝,컒쏇돆횮캪폒뷘헢킩춳볆쳘헷,폫맺쓚튻킩믺릹뫍톧헟뗄쪵뗘캲쫽뻝;폖죧뮹폐쪧튵헟췵쒳,평폚퓚뗷닩뾪쪼뗄쪱뫲뗷닩믲컊뻭뗷닩뻟폐뷏룟뗄튻훂탔,쮵쏷컒쏇뗄퇹웤틑뺭뒦폚쪧튵ힴ첬,떫컒쏇쓜맛달뗄쪧튵돖탸쪱볤놾쫽뻝뻟폐뷏잿뗄뿉뾿탔ꆣ쫇듓뗷닩뾪쪼떽뗷닩뷡쫸웤쯹뺭샺뗄쪧튵돖탸쪱볤,웕춨룟훐(e=0)폫훐뗈횰튵뷌폽(e=1)헢솽ퟩ맊룃퇹놾쪧튵돖탸쪱볤튲늻쫇튻룶뺫좷뗄쪧튵쪱볤,퇹놾쪧튵돖탸쪱볤뗄춳볆쳘헷죧뇭1쯹쪾ꆣ41
뇭1ꆡ웕춨룟훐폫훐뗈횰튵뷌폽쪧폃Kaplan2Meier램맀볆뗄뗄럧쿕몯쫽ꛋ(t)캪:튵헟쪧튵돖탸쪱볤춳볆쳘헷뻹횵랽닮훐캻쫽쯄럖캻쫽쿂쿞쯄럖캻쫽짏쿞ꛋ^hj(tj)=nje=뛔펦뗄맀볆뗄짺듦몯쫽S(t)캪:e=ꆡꆡ듓뇭1뿉틔뾴돶,웕춨룟훐쪧튵헟뗄욽뻹쪧튵S^(tj)=ꇇj(ni-hi)/ni=ꇇj(1-ꛋ^i)i=1i=1돖탸쪱볤쫇룶퓂,훐뗈횰튵뷌폽쪧튵헟뗄욽뻹맀쯣돶짺듦쟺쿟틔뫳,뮹뿉틔춨맽Log2Rank쪧튵돖탸쪱볤쫇룶퓂ꆣ듓횱맛뗄퇹놾쫽뻝짏뫍Wilcoxon훈볬퇩살볬퇩늻춬짺듦쟺쿟뗄닮틬탔ꆣ살뾴,퓚샍뚯솦퓙뻍튵쫐뎡짏웕춨룟훐뗄쪧튵헟뻟춼1뫍뇭2쫇춨맽SAS춳볆죭볾퓋폃Kaplan2폐룼뎤뗄쪧튵돖탸쪱볤뫍룼짙뗄퓙뻍튵믺믡ꆣ쿂쏦Meier램뗃돶뗄웕춨룟훐쪧튵헟폫훐뗈횰튵뷌폽쪧붫춨맽럇닎쫽램뫍COX냫닎쫽램살볬퇩헢룶횱맛튵헟뗄짺듦쟺쿟벰짺듦쟺쿟닮틬뗄볬퇩뷡맻ꆣ뗄퇹놾뷡싛쯹뻟폐뗄춳볆쿔훸탔ꆣ쯄ꆢ샭싛뿲볜벰볆솿뷡맻(튻)럇닎쫽램볙짨쪧튵돖탸쪱볤T뗄룅싊럖늼몯쫽캪F(t)=p(T<t),쯼듺뇭쪧튵돖탸쪱볤T킡폚t뗄룅싊,퓲T뗄쏜뛈몯쫽캪f(t)=dF/dtꆣ볙짨S듺뇭T뗄짺듦몯쫽(suvivorfuntion),퓲S(t)=1-F(t)=p(Tꇝt),쯼뇭쪾쪧튵돖탸쪱볤T뎬맽믲뗈폚t뗄룅싊ꆣ볙짨ꛋ(t)듺뇭T뗄럧쿕몯쫽춼1ꆡ웕춨룟훐뫍훐뗈횰튵뷌폽쪧튵헟짺듦쟺쿟춼(hazard뇭2ꆡ웕춨룟훐폫훐뗈횰튵뷌폽쪧튵funtion)ꆪꆪꆪ벴뇭쪾튻룶쪧튵헟쪧튵쪱볤T틑뺭돖탸떽t뗄쟩뿶쿂,쯻퓚뛌웚dt쓚쪵쿖퓙뻍튵뗄쳵볾헟짺듦쟺쿟닮틬뗄쿔훸탔볬퇩룅싊PR>,폃릫쪽뇭쪾캪:TESTCHI2SQUAREDFCHI2SQUAREꛋꇜT<t+dtTꇝt)t)=limp((=f(t)/S(t)dtꇺ0dt짺듦쒣탍훐뗄럇닎쫽맀볆랽램뿉틔폃살뛔짺듦ꆡꆡ듓럇닎쫽럖컶뗄뷡맻살뾴,훐뗈횰튵뷌폽쪧튵헟쟺쿟뗄짺듦쟺쿟퓚웕춨룟훐쪧튵헟짺듦쟺쿟뗄쿂랽,뛸쟒S(t)뫍럧쿕몯쫽ꛋ(t)뷸탐맀볆,늢뿉틔뛔솽ퟩ늻춬짺듦쟺쿟닮틬뗄쿔훸탔뷸탐볬퇩ꆣ헢훖닮틬퓚%뗄쿔훸탔쮮욽짏춨맽쇋쿔훸탔볬뛔짺듦쟺쿟뷸탐맀볆뗄랽램폐쫙쏼뇭램퇩ꆣ헢뇭쏷웕춨룟훐쪧튵헟뇈훐뗈횰튵뷌폽쪧튵헟(Life2뻟폐룼뎤뗄쪧튵돖탸쪱볤뫍룼킡뗄퓙뻍튵믺믡ꆣTableMethod,볲돆LT램)뫍Kaplan2Meier램(뛾)COX냫닎쫽램(Product2LimitMethod,폖돆돋믽벫쿞램,볲돆PL뇭3ꆡ펰쿬퓙뻍튵뗄틲쯘뇤솿뇭램)ꆣ쫙쏼뇭램쫊폃퇹놾쫽뷏뛠뗄짺듦럖컶쇏,탔뇰뷌폽돌뛈쪧튵잰웳튵탔훊퓙뻍튵폅믝횤붡뾵ힴ뿶Kaplan2Meier램훷튪폃폚킡퇹놾,튲뿉틔폃폚듳퇹genderefunemploybenefithealth놾뗄짺듦럖컶쇏ꆣ놾컄닉폃Kaplan2Meier램살쓐:1훐뗈횰튵뷌폽:1맺폐벯쳥:1폐:1솼뫃:1맀볆짺듦쟺쿟,웤맀볆랽램죧쿂[13얮:0웕춨룟훐:0웤쯼:0컞:0웤쯼:0]:붫ꆡꆡ틽죫뇭3훐뗄뇤솿,붨솢죧쿂뗄COX뇈샽럧쿕n룶퇹놾뗄쪧튵돖탸쪱볤(냼삨뷘캲쫽뻝),내헕평킡떽듳뗄쮳탲틀듎업쇐돉쒣탍:t1<t2<ꆭ<tj<ꆭ<tK<ꇞꆣ평폚쒳킩퇹놾뿉쓜뻟폐쿠춬뗄쪧튵ꛋ(t,x)=ꛋ0(t,x)exp(Xꇤꛂ)=ꛋ0(t,x)exp(x1ꛂ1돖탸쪱볤,맊K<nꆣ+x2ꛂ2+ꆭ+xnꛂn)(1)볙짨쪽훐,ꛋ0(t,x)캪믹ힼ럧쿕몯쫽(baselinehazardhj듺뇭쪧튵돖탸쪱볤캪tj퇹놾룶쫽,j=1,2,ꆭK;mj뇭쪾퓚funtion);X캪뷢쫍쿲솿;ꛋ(t,x)캪럧쿕몯쫽ꆣtj뫍tj+1횮볤놻뷘캲뗄퇹놾쫽;컒쏇뗄죎컱,뻍쫇맀볆돶COX뇈샽럧쿕쒣탍nj뇭쪾퓚쎿룶쪧튵쪱볤뗣tj짏뗄퇹놾맛달쫽,K(1)훐뷢쫍뇤솿잰뗄쾵쫽ꛂ1ꆭꛂnꆣnj=ꇆ(mi+hi)뛔폚뇈샽럧쿕쒣탍,죴볙뚨ꛋ0(t,x)캪쳘뚨뗄쪱iꇝj42
볤럖늼몯쫽,퓲돆캪좫닎쫽짺듦럖컶,뿉틔폃벫듳쯆평(4)뿉틔맀쯣돶닎쫽ꛂ뗄횵ꆣ좻램뛔닎쫽쾵쫽ꛂ뷸탐맀볆ꆣ죴볙짨ꛋ0(t,x)캪캴펦폃늿럖쯆좻몯쫽뛔쒣탍훐뗄닎쫽ퟷ돶맀쯣횪럖늼쪱,퓲돆캪COX뗄냫닎쫽램(COX1972,쪱,웤틢틥퓚폚:1975),뿉틔춨맽늿럖쯆좻램(COXpartiallikelihood뗚튻,뛔COX뇈샽럧쿕쒣탍(1)솽뇟좡뛔쫽퓙estimationtechnique)뛔닎쫽ꛂ뷸탐맀볆ꆣ놾컄닉폃맘폚xj쟳욫떼쫽뗃:COX냫닎쫽램춨맽늿럖쯆좻램뛔닎쫽ꛂ뷸탐맀5lnꛋ(t,x,ꛂ,ꛋ0)/5xj=ꛂj볆[14],웤랽램죧쿂:헢뇭쏷ꛂj뫢솿쇋퓚웤쯼뷢쫍뇤솿늻뇤뗄쳵볾냑n룶퇹놾뗄쪧튵돖탸쪱볤내헕평킡떽듳뗄쮳쿂뷢쫍뇤솿xj뛔쪧튵퓙뻍튵룅싊뗄펰쿬돌뛈벰랽탲틀듎업쇐돉t1<t2<ꆭ<tj<ꆭ<tn,퓲쪧튵돖탸쿲ꆣ떱ꛂj>0,xj뗄퓶볓뿉틔쳡룟퓙뻍튵뗄룅싊,랴쪱볤t1뛔늿럖쯆좻몯쫽뗄릱쿗캪:횮,복짙퓙뻍튵뗄룅싊ꆣꛋ(t1,x1,ꛂ)뗚뛾,평폚:n(2)ꇆꛋꛋ0(t,x)exp(x1ꛂ1+ꆭ+1ꛂj+ꆭ+x7ꛂ7)(t1,xi,ꛂ)i=1ꛋ0(t,x)exp(x1ꛂ1+ꆭ+0ꛂj+ꆭ+x7ꛂ=exp(ꛂj)7)냑(1)듺죫(2)뗃:맊떱쒳룶뷢쫍뇤솿뇈죧xj캪뛾럖샠뇤솿쪱,ꛋ(t1,x1,ꛂ)n=exp(X1ꇤꛂ1)xj=1뗄퓙뻍튵룅싊쿠뛔폚xj=0뗄퓙뻍튵룅싊nꇆꛋ(t1,xi,ꛂ)ꇆexp(X’ꛂi)캪exp(ꛂj)ꆣ떱좻,퓶볓뮹쫇복짙튪쫓ꛂj뗄헽뢺i=1i=1웤훐뛸뚨ꆣ,X뗄쿂뷇뇪캪퇹놾룶쳥뇪쪾ꆣ춬퇹뗄,쪧튵돖탸쪱볤tj뛔늿럖쯆좻몯쫽뗄릱쿗캪뗚죽,떱쒳룶뷢쫍뇤솿뇈죧xj캪뛠럖샠뇤솿:ꛋ쪱,exp(ꛂj)캪xj쎿퓶볓튻룶떥캻,쪧튵헟퓙뻍튵뗄(tj,x1,ꛂ)n(3)룅싊퓶볓믲복짙뗄쿠뛔돌뛈ꆣꇆꛋ(tj,xi,ꛂ)뇭4뫍뇭5쫇놾컄폃SAS춳볆죭볾볆쯣돶뗄i=j냑(1)듺죫(3)뗃:헻쳥랽돌뗄볙짨볬퇩벰닎쫽횵ꆣꛋ(뇭4헻쳥랽돌볙짨볬퇩tj,xj,ꛂ)()n=expXjꇤꇤꛂ1nꇆꛋ(tj,xi,ꛂ)ꇆTESTCHI2SQUAREDFPR>CHISQexp(X’ꛂi)i=ji=폚쫇뛔쫽늿럖쯆좻몯쫽캪:(ꛂ)=ꇆXiꇤꛂ-lnꇆexp(Xjꇤꛂ)(4)i=1j=i뇭5닎쫽맀볆VARIABLEDFESTIMATEERRORCHI2SQUAREPR>ꆡꆡ듓뇭4뿉틔뾴돶,랽돌헻쳥퓚5%뗄쿔훸탔쮮램,뛔쿃쏅쫐2003쓪훁2006쓪쪧튵헟뗄뺭퇩럖컶뇭욽짏춨맽쇋쿔훸탔볬퇩ꆣ쏷,웕춨룟훐폫훐뗈횰튵뷌폽쪧튵헟뗄쪧튵돖탸쪱볤듓뇭5뿉틔뾴돶,뷌폽돌뛈e뗄맀볆횵쫇뫍퓙뻍튵믺믡뻟폐쿔훸뗄닮틬ꆣ훐뗈횰튵뷌폽쪧튵,늢쟒퓚1%뗄쿔훸탔쮮욽쿂춨맽쇋쿔훸탔헟쿠뛔폚웕춨룟훐쪧튵헟뛸퇔,뻟폐룼뛌뗄쪧튵돖탸볬퇩ꆣ헢뇭쏷,훐뗈횰튵뷌폽뿉틔쿔훸뗘쳡룟쪧튵쪱볤뫍룼룟뗄퓙뻍튵믺믡ꆣ훐뗈횰튵뷌폽쪧튵헟뗄헟퓙뻍튵뗄믺믡;쿠뛔폚웕춨룟훐뗄쪧튵헟,훐뗈횰욽뻹쪧튵돖탸쪱볤캪룶퓂,뇈웕춨룟훐뗄튵뷌폽쪧튵헟뗄퓙뻍튵룅싊쫇웕춨룟훐쪧튵헟퓙뻍짙룶퓂,웤퓙뻍튵믺믡쫇웕춨룟훐뗄놶ꆣ튵룅싊뗄놶ꆣ쫂쪵짏,퓚샍뚯솦쫐뎡짏돶쿖뗄ꆰ톧샺쪧튵ꆱ뫍ꆰ벼릤컥ꆢ뷡싛벰뷌폽폫뻍튵헾닟웴쪾믄ꆱ튲횤쪵쇋컒쏇뷡싛뗄뿉탅탔ꆣ뷌폽늿2006쓪릫늼뗄좫맺훐뗈횰튵톧킣뇏튵짺뻍튵쟩뿶튲쿔쪾:2002놾컄퓋폃짺듦쒣탍훐뗄닎쫽램뫍COX냫닎쫽쓪훁2005쓪,훐횰뇏튵짺뻍튵싊뻹놣돖퓚92%틔짏ꆣ43
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