No. C2006002 2006-02 Ӊ௹ࣜ࠶ӮӉაൌ࠽߸ੱဆэ iiϘঘ၂᠉غ೦ིႋࡌඪࠣఃࣜဒᆣऌ ڃaݢཫ Кࣘն࿐ᇏݓࣜ࠶࣮ᇏྏ No. C2006002 2006୍2ᄅ20ರ 1
Ӊ௹ࣜ࠶ӮӉაൌ࠽߸ੱဆэ iiϘঘ၂᠉غ೦ིႋࡌඪࠣఃࣜဒᆣऌ ڃaݢཫ Кࣘն࿐ᇏݓࣜ࠶࣮ᇏྏ No. C2006002 2006୍2ᄅ20ರ ᅋေğϘঘ ᠉غ೦ིႋؓ၂ݓࣜ࠶ӮӉݖӱᇏসളӁੱሔۊაൌ࠽߸ੱэᆭࡗ৳༢ิԛંҩbЧ໓ࢺകϘঘ ᠉غ೦ིႋࡌඪ֥ંଽಸđษંཌྷܱэਈ؇ਈඔऌބࣜဒ࣮໓ངđ০Ⴈቋྍ࠹ඔऌॉҰఃᇶေࣜဒᆣऌѩ۳ၛٳ༅ބܙbЧ໓ؿགྷႵᇹႿᇗྍࢳܓઙ৯ࡎބϘঘ-᠉غ೦ིႋᆭࡗࣩᆚބҀѩթ֥৳༢đႵᇹႿಪ്ؿᅚᇏݓࡅࣜ࠶ӮӉݖӱᇏൌ࠽ބၬሔۊ֥ܱ༢bЧ໓ߎษંਔϘঘ ᠉غ೦ིႋࡌඪ࣮ؓದлൌ࠽߸ੱ໙ี֥ࢹၩၬb 2
Ӊ௹ࣜ࠶ӮӉაൌ࠽߸ੱဆэ iiϘঘ၂᠉غ೦ིႋࡌඪࠣఃࣜဒᆣऌ ڃaݢཫ ୍ ᄅ ರ ଽಸิေ Ϙঘ ᠉غ೦ིႋؓ၂ݓࣜ࠶ӮӉݖӱᇏসളӁੱሔۊაൌ࠽߸ੱэᆭࡗ৳༢ิԛંҩbЧ໓ࢺകϘঘ ᠉غ೦ིႋࡌඪ֥ંଽಸđษંཌྷܱэਈ؇ਈඔऌބࣜဒ࣮໓ངđ০Ⴈቋྍ࠹ඔऌॉҰఃᇶေࣜဒᆣऌѩ۳ၛٳ༅ބܙbЧ໓ؿགྷႵᇹႿᇗྍࢳܓઙ৯ࡎބϘঘ-᠉غ೦ིႋᆭࡗࣩᆚބҀѩթ֥৳༢đႵᇹႿಪ്ؿᅚᇏݓࡅࣜ࠶ӮӉݖӱᇏൌ࠽ބၬሔۊ֥ܱ༢bЧ໓ߎษંਔϘঘ ᠉غ೦ིႋࡌඪ࣮ؓದлൌ࠽߸ੱ໙ี֥ࢹၩၬb 3
ଢ aϘঘ၂᠉غིႋંӁളМࣟބࠎЧଽಸ aඔऌሧਘބൌᆣ࣮ۀඍ a০Ⴈ؟ݓࢩ૫ඔऌဒϘঘ၂᠉غིႋ aϘঘ ᠉غ೦ིႋӉ௹൬৻ྟဒ a০ႨൈࡗਙඔऌܴҳϘঘ၂᠉غ೦ིႋ aሹࢲބં ႄႨ໓ང a۲ݓದन൬ೆაൌ࠽߸ੱܱ༢č ୍Ď a۲ݓದन൬ೆაൌ࠽߸ੱؓඔܱ༢č ୍Ď aϘঘིႋඣᆴཌྟܙ࠹ٚӱҗҵٳ҃ aϘঘིႋؓඔཌྟܙ࠹ٚӱҗҵٳ҃ a ୍Ϙঘིႋ൬৻ྟܙ࠹ٚӱҗҵٳ҃* a ୍Ϙঘིႋ൬৻ྟܙ࠹ٚӱҗҵٳ҃** 7aۄࣜ࠶ุཌྷؓ൬ೆބཌྷؓࡎ۬эč1950/60-2004Ď і ğ҂൬ೆ؍Ϙঘ ᠉غ೦ིႋܙ࠹ٚӱ і aϘঘ ᠉غ೦ིႋٚӱҗҵ൬৻ྟܙ࠹ࢲݔ 4
Ӊ௹ࣜ࠶ӮӉაൌ࠽߸ੱဆэ iiϘঘ၂᠉غ೦ིႋࡌඪࠣఃࣜဒᆣऌ ၂ݓࣜ࠶ᄝष٢ߌ༯ؿᅚđЧлൌ࠽߸ੱቔູ၂۱ห൹ࡎ۬эਈđ߶ၹႋࣜ࠶ӮӉ҂ࢨ؍ࠎЧ૫ၹބཌྷࣩؓᆚ৯ဆэđؓଽຓࣜ࠶ܱ༢ބ؛ࡆၛטࢫbၹطࢳࣜ࠶ӮӉაൌ࠽߸ੱ৳༢ऎႵંބᆟҦၩၬbෙಖൌ࠽߸ੱ൳گᄖၹ႕ཙđϘঘ ᠉غ೦ིႋࡌඪ၇ກসളӁੱᄹӉ҆ҵၳྟܱ֩ࡌഡđઆࠠ֝ԛሔۊݖӱ߶ϴෛЧлൌ࠽߸ੱശᆴ൝֥ଁีđູܴҳष٢ࣜ࠶ӮӉൈ௹ൌ࠽߸ੱሼ൝ิ܂ਔ၂۱ં൪࢘b ၂ݓࣜ࠶ؿᅚݖӱᇏЧлൌ࠽߸ੱ൞ڎಒൌթᄝശᆴ൝ĤളӁੱᄹӉૼཁ҂ݓࡅൌ࠽߸ੱэაഈඍંყҩ൞ڎऎႵ၂ᇁྟĤෙಖϘঘ ᠉غ೦ིႋࡌඪ֥આࠠౢ༉ሱటđ॓࿐ંࢳ৯ླေࢲކࣜဒᆣऌࡆၛܙbݖಀ୍ࠫࣜ࠶ಆ౯߄Мࣟ༯đޓ؟ݓࡅބֹࣜ࠶ᄝष٢ߌ༯ॹӮӉđࡆഈཌྷܱ࠹ሧਘؿडaᆜބࠒđູဒᆃ၂ંࡌඪิ܂ਔپڶҋĠཌྷܱ࿐ඌ࣮ิԛ҂ܴҳဒٚمѩࠒਔٳ༅Ӯݔđູܙᆃ၂ંࣜဒࢳ৯ิ܂ਔႵ০่ࡱb ॉҳϘঘ ᠉غ೦ིႋࡌഡࠣఃࣜဒᆣऌđ࣮ؓದлൌ࠽߸ੱႭఃऎႵགྷൌၩၬbݓࣜ࠶ᆞࣜॹӮӉބࢲܒэđൈაಆ౯ࣜ࠶ವކӱ؇҂؎ധ߄đགྷൌ่ࡱაϘঘ ᠉غ೦ིႋࡌഡМࣟնᇁ໖ކbೂݔᆃ၂ѓሙંଆ҂ࣇઆࠠሱటđطିࢠնӱ؇ࢳཌྷܱࣜဒགྷའđᄵॖିູܴҳದл߸ੱэ൝ิ܂၂۱ႵႨ൪࢘đѩູႵܱ໙ีᆚં࿙܋്ิ܂ଖᇕٳ༅ࢹbّᆭೂݔϘঘ ᠉غ೦ིႋࡌഡಌഒࣜဒᆣऌᆦӻđ࣮ದлൌ࠽߸ੱනਫ਼ᄵႋႵ҂࿊ᄴb ቔູ࣮ದлൌ࠽߸ੱ֥၂ཛሙС۽ቔđЧ໓ࢺകϘঘ ᠉غ೦ིႋࡌඪંଽಸđษંཌྷܱэਈ؇ਈඔऌބࣜဒ࣮໓ངđ০Ⴈቋྍ࠹ඔऌॉҰఃᇶေࣜဒᆣऌđѩؓᆃোᆣऌ۳ၛࢳބܙbֻ၂ࢫܴҳϘঘ ᠉غ೦ིႋิԛ֥ൎބ࿐ඌМࣟđࢺകᆃ၂ંࡌഡ֥ࠎЧଽಸބઆࠠࢲܒbֻؽࢫࡥษંؓϘঘ ᠉غ೦ིႋႵܱэਈඔऌ؇ਈ่ࡱၛࠣၘႵဒ࣮֥නਫ਼ބٚمbֻaඹࢫ০Ⴈቋྍݓљཌྷؓࡎ۬ඔऌđؓંࡌඪ֥ࣜဒࢳ৯۳ၛဒđѩॉҳϘঘ ᠉غ೦ིႋܱ༢ொҵ൬৻ྟᆣऌbֻࢫ০Ⴈݖಀ϶۱ൗࡀభު ۱ࣜࢠॹሔۊࣜ࠶ุཌྷܱэਈ֥ൈࡗਙඔऌđؓϘঘ ᠉غ೦ིႋМࣟ༯ࣜဒᆣऌࡆၛܴҳބܙbቋުંЧ໓ܴҳ؟ٚ૫ఓൕၩၬb aϘঘ၂᠉غིႋંӁളМࣟބࠎЧଽಸ 1ۋ྆ᇫࡅབ࢝൱aޱնჷ࢝൱აЧ໓ֻ၂ቔᆀษંཌྷܱ࠹ਈٳ༅໓ངѩ۳Ⴭิׄބᆷ࢝đۋ྆ਾᶆaนࢭᄝЧ໓࣮҂ࢨ؍Ϻᇹ൬ࠢބᆜ҆ٳඔऌb 5
Ϙঘ ᠉غ೦ིႋࡌඪ൞ᄝ ൗࡀ ୍սႵܱૅჭ߸ੱᆟҦษંᇏิԛ֥đఃᆰࢤଽಸ൞ࢣൕܓઙ৯ࡎቔູनޙ߸ੱࢳંթᄝ༢ྟொҵb ୍սభު؟୍đ༆aರЧ֩ݓࣜ࠶ॹᄹӉđૅݓࣜ࠶ݓ࠽ࣩᆚ৯ཌྷؓ༯ࢆđѩᄝ֒ൈ҃ূؘ ೦ਟุ༢ഡק֥ܥק߸ੱᇅ༯ᇯ҄ྙӮૅჭۚܙ৯bૅݓࣜ࠶࿐ࢸؓૅჭۚܙാޙթᄝཌྷ֒܋്đᄝೂޅҩקۚܙӱ؇ഈթᄝᆚંb֒ൈ၂ᇕႵ႕ཙ֥ٚمđ൞০Ⴈܓઙ৯ࡎંބস৯ӮЧᆷѓটҩෘૅ ჭۚܙӱ؇đᄜՑႄؿႵܱܓઙ৯ࡎቔູनޙ߸ੱંअཋྟᆚંbϘঘ࢝൱ ୍ؿіีູoܓઙ৯ࡎ่࢝ğᄜॉҳpં໓đؿဘࡁਆ҆߃ٳࠣఃളӁੱҵၳ֥ٳ༅ԮđҐႨࣩᆚྟ൧ӆࢲܒބݓଽস৯ੀ֩ѓሙٳ༅ࡌഡđࢣൕܓઙ৯ࡎቔູनޙ߸ੱथקંऎႵଽᄝ༢ொ༂ Balassa,
b᠉غ೦࢝൱୍ؿіં໓ӂඍোරܴׄ Samuelson,
bϘঘ ᠉غ೦ིႋࡌඪႮՎᆞൔิԛb ູ۷ݺࢳϘঘ ᠉غ೦ིႋંൌᇉބ࿐ඌԮӵđླေࡥษંܓઙ৯ࡎaཌྷؓࡎ۬aൌ࠽߸ੱ֩ࠫ۱ۀଽݤࠣః৳༢bܓઙ৯ࡎ purchasing power parity
ࡹ৫ᄝo၂ࡎקčLaw of one price: LOPĎ”ࠎԤഈbᆃ۱Фӫູ oູࠞࡥֆ֥ࣜဒྟჰpಪູđೂ҂թᄝᄎൻӮЧބસၞуৈđ҂ݓࡅཌྷࣜ߸ੱߐෘູ၂ࠊліൕࡎ۬ުႋھཌྷ֩b၂ࡎקੰ܄ൔіղູ1 & EJ 1đఃᇏ1ބ1ٳљіൕֻJᇕഅݓଽބݓຓࡎ۬đ&൞ႨЧݓࠊлඔਈіGJEJ GJൕ֥ ֆ໊ຓݓࠊлđࠧᆰࢤѓൕمіղ֥Чл߸ੱbೂݔਆݓࡎᆷඔᇏܒӮބಃᇗཌྷ֩đᄵ၂ࡎקၩሢਆݓ၂থሰࡎ۬ࣜ߸ੱߐෘުཌྷ֩đࠧ1 &1đࠇ& 1 1đఃᇏ&ቔູડቀਆݓࡎཌྷ֥֩ࠊлؑߐੱ൞धؓܓઙEGEG৯ࡎbᄝՎࠎԤഈđೂݔ၂ݓࡎࢠॹࠇࢠતᄹӉđ߸ੱཌྷႋטᆜЌᆣਆݓࡎཌྷ֩bਆݓࡎཌྷؓэМࣟ༯đЌᆣਆݓࡎ၂ᇁ֥߸ੱ൞ཌྷؓܓ ઙ৯ࡎb ႮՎॖđܓઙ৯ࡎЧᇉഈ൞၂ᇕनޙ߸ੱંbᄝቋࡥֆބቋׅࣜྙൔഈđܓઙ৯ࡎྐڋᆀಪູđӉ௹नޙၩၬഈ߸ੱඣФधؓܓઙ৯ࡎथקđ၂ݓࡎэ֝ᇁ߸ੱэФཌྷؓܓઙ৯ࡎࢳbႮႿ߸ੱ൞ष٢ࣜ࠶֥ࠎЧࡎ۬эਈđܓઙ৯ࡎିڎӮ৫đࠇ۷ሙಒ֥ඪđؓܓઙ৯ࡎቔູनޙ߸ੱંൡႨ่ࡱࠇअཋྟ֥ಪ്đᄝݓ࠽ࣜ࠶࿐ਵთऎႵູࠞᇗေၩၬğoૄ۱ݓ࠽ ࣜ࠶࿐ࡅਲ߿ധԩđթᄝଖᇕหקྙ֥ܓઙ৯ࡎ֥ྐpb ܓઙ৯ࡎקၬടࠣࣜၬ߸ੱሇߐުႨ၂ࠊлѓൕ֥ਆݓࡎܱ༢đၹطమᄝЇݣਔਆݓࡎбੱč1 &1Ďᆃ၂ห൹бࡎܱ༢b҂ݖ၇ऌܓઙ৯EGࡎࡌඪđᆃ၂ࡎ۬бੱᄝनޙၩၬഈ֩Ⴟ đၹطᄝંٳ༅Ҫ૫ѩ҂ऎႵטࢫ 2 ᆃ۱໙ีᄝݓ࠽ࣜ࠶࿐ඪൎഈᄻ؟ՑႄؿᆚંđၛᇀႿ᠉غ೦ᄝં֒ൈᄜՑԛགྷᆚંൈൈ҂טኽֹཿ֡ğoૄ၂սದ߶ٕဢհ༂pčSamuelson, 1964Ďb 3 ෙಖܓઙ৯ࡎනམіඍॖၛሔි֞16ൗࡀđ20ൗࡀԚೋׅࣜ࠶࿐ࡅवೖغ༢іඍਔᆃ၂ંđѩቓਔԚ҄ဒӇ൫đѓᆽᆃ၂ંӁള $BTTFM
3PHPGG
b 4 “PPP is the disarmingly simple empirical proposition that, once converted to a common, national price levels should be equal” (Rogoff, 1996, p. 647). 5 Manzur (2002) succinctly summarizes the essence of purchasing power parity: “Purchasing power parity (PPP) gives the relationship between exchange rates and nationsl price levels. The absolute PPP states that the exchange rate is equal to the ratio of domestic to foreign pricese. According to the relative PPP, the change in the exchange rate is equal to the inflation differential. As a central concept in international finance, PPP has useful wide-ranging applications” (p. 79). 6 “Under the skin of any international economist lies a deep-seated belief in some variant of the PPP theory of exchange rate” (Dornbusch, R. and Krugmank. P, p. 540) 6
ࣜ࠶ࠃ֥ࡎ۬ݣၬbᄝܓઙ৯ࡎൗࢸᇏđၬ߸ੱؓଽຓ٤नޙሑӵքטࢫᆯିđࠊлྟԊࠌФၬ߸ੱэ་൬đѩ҂ླေഈඍཌྷؓࡎ۬ҕაטࢳbෙಖᆃ၂бࡎܱ༢ᄝܓઙ৯ࡎંٓൔᇏරެࣇႵྴႵఃі֥ྙൔၩၬđູૌࢳൌ࠽߸ੱۀิ܂ਔ၂۱આࠠބൎཌྷ၂ᇁ֥ಪ്్ೆׄbՖઆࠠٳ༅࢘؇ुđೂݔܓઙ৯ࡎࡌඪൌ࠽҂Ӯ৫đᆃ၂ཌྷؓࡎ۬ь҂ᄜ൞ӈඔčDPOTUBOUĎطӮູэਈčWBSJBCMFĎĠೂݔؓܓઙ৯ࡎொྙࠣఃэऎႵଖᇕܿੰྟđପહьॖିӮູ၂۱ऎႵࣜ࠶טࢫۿି֥ࡎ۬эਈbᆃ၂આࠠॖିྟ֥ࣜဒࠎԤބંᅚषđܒӮൌ࠽߸ੱۀิԛ֥࿐ބൎМࣟb ܓઙ৯ࡎંᄝൌᆣဒഈ૫ਢ၂۱đࣼ൞ၛࢳགྷൌളࠃᇏܼٗթᄝ֥ࣜ߸ੱטᆜުݓ࠽ࡎඣѩ҂ཌྷ֩ၹطཌྷؓࡎ۬ѩ҂֩Ⴟ1֥གྷའbܓઙ৯ࡎაགྷൌ҂၂ᇁߎऎႵଖᇕܿᄵྙđࣼ൞ࣜݖ߸ੱטᆜ֥౫ݓࡎඣđ༢ྟط҂൞ෛࠏྟֹ֮Ⴟڶݓbؓܓઙ৯ࡎቔູ߸ੱࢳંअཋྟ֥7Ӊ௹ฐษđၛϘঘ1964୍ؿіં໓ູѓᆽ౼֤ᇗնࣉᅚbϘঘՖંഈඪૼđႮႿসളӁੱթᄝ҆ҵၳđݓ࠽ཌྷؓࡎ۬აসളӁੱඣᆭࡗթᄝ༢৳༢Ġᄝ۲ݓࣜ࠶ؿᅚࢨ؍ބඣհઋҵၳ֥གྷൌൗࢸᇏđཌྷؓࡎ۬֩Ⴟ1൞২ຓط҂൞ӈĠᄝ၂ݓࣜ࠶ӮӉݖӱᇏđཌྷؓࡎ۬߶ෛሢসളӁੱሔۊط8ഈശbႿ൞ᆃ၂ཌྷؓࡎ۬ФڮჍଖᇕᆇൌטࢫэਈݣၬđѩФ࿐ඌࢸӫູൌ࠽߸ੱđၛіൕაၬ߸ੱۀ֥৳༢ބљbުটൌ࠽߸ੱۀႻࣉ၂҄ٳູຓ҆ބຓ҆ൌ࠽߸ੱđഈඍၛܓઙ৯ࡎקၬٚൔіղ֥ൌ࠽߸ੱູຓ҆ൌ࠽߸ੱđ၂ݓଽ҆ॖસၞࡎ۬ა҂ॖસၞࡎ۬бੱູଽ҆ൌ࠽߸ੱbؽᆀЧᇉཌྷ๙đ൞భᆀ۷؟ႨႿݓ࠽ࣩᆚ৯ބטࢫݓ࠽ࣜ࠶ܱ༢ӆކđުᆀ۷؟০ႨႿࢳݓଽਆ҆ሧჷᇂӆކb Ϙঘં໓ࡌഡđّႋࣜ࠶ሹਈࢲܒ֥o၂ডሰഅča basket of goodsĎp Їওoॖસၞčtraded goodsĎpބo҂ॖસၞčnon-traded goodsĎpbॖસၞ҆ݓ࠽সളӁੱҵၳࢠնđࠧ౫ݓളӁੱჹ֮ႿڶݓĠ҂ॖસၞ҆সളӁੱݓ࠽ҵၳࢠཬđമᇀॖၛޭ҂࠹bݓ࠽સၞॖસၞࡎ۬նุॖбđ౫ݓཌྷؓݓຓޓ֥֮সളӁੱđ֝ᇁھ҆ཌྷؓݓຓޓ֥֮۽ሧඣbಖط၂ݓଽ҆স৯҆ࡗੀྟטࢫቔႨđؓਆ҆۽ሧӁളྟ႕ཙđࢲݔ҂ॖસၞ҆ෙಖളӁੱაݓຓҵए҂նđႮႿ۽ሧაॖસၞ҆նุनޙđ္ჹჹ֮ႿݓຓඣđՖطھ҆ࡎ္۬ཌྷႋ֮ႿݓຓඣbႮႿ၂থሰӁࡎ۬Їݣਆ҆Ӂđ౫ݓ٤સၞࡎ۬ཌྷؓݓຓொ֮đ֝ᇁ၂Ϯࡎཌྷؓݓຓொ֮bᆃ၂бࢠં֒ಖ္ॖၛՖڶݓ࢘؇ࡆၛӂඍğڶݓॖસၞ҆ളӁੱۚჹჹۚႿ౫ݓđ෮ၛھ҆۽ሧჹჹۚႿ౫ݓĠಖطڶݓଽ҆স৯ੀളӁੱѩ٤หљႪ഻֥٤સၞ҆۽ሧބࡎ္۬ཌྷႋิശđ֝ᇁڶݓ၂Ϯࡎࠇཌྷؓࡎ۬ඣ ࢠۚb 7 ҂ؿགྷ၂ུॖି֝ᇁܓઙ৯ࡎაགྷൌ౦ঃҵၳ֥ၹb২ೂགྷൌࣜ࠶թᄝᄎൻӮЧބસၞуৈđၹطส০ࠏބྛູ҂ቀၛކਆݓࡎᆭࡗ෮ႵҵၳbՖ۷ູඌྟ࢘؇ुđ҂ݓࡅࡎ࠹ؓའഅࢲܒބಃᇗ҂đၹطࠧьؓૄ۱അ၂ࡎקੰӮ৫đਆݓ၂Ϯࡎඣ္҂၂קཌྷ֩bਸ਼ຓ҂ݓࡅหקൈ௹૫ਢ֥҂ؓӫླ૫Ԋࠌၹđ္ॖି֝ᇁࡎܱ༢ொܓઙ৯ࡎܱ༢bಖطᆃུၹ҂ିࢳ౫ݓაڶݓᆭࡗཌྷؓࡎ֥۬༢ྟҵၳb 8 As commented in Kravis and Lipsey (1988) “The concept of purchasing power parity and the ‘law of one price’ are so convenient and so firmly embedded in trade theory and exchange-rate theory that is requires some effort to put them aside to discuss national price levels, but the widely fluctuating exchange rates of the 1970s and the 1980s have compelled attention to these issues” (p. 474). 9Samuelsonč1964ĎႨ၍ބݓଽഅčmobile and domesticĎіඍਆ҆ٳোb 10 Bhagwati(
ᄝਆေٳ༅Мࣟ༯ษંᆃ၂໙ีđิԛ۲ݓሧЧބসሧჷጋڮ҂ஊള֥ေཌྷؓ 7
ႮՎॖđϘঘ ᠉غ೦ིႋЇݣၛ༯ܱࡌקބંğ၂൞ؓॖસၞݓ࠽ࢌߐ҂թᄝшуৈđၹطնุડቀ၂ࡎק่ࡱđಖط oྙӁބሧЧੀ҂ࣉೆݓ࠽൬ᆦč ်Ďpđࠧࡌקڛༀ҂ॖસၞđѩ҂ॉ੮ሧЧੀؓݓ࠽൬ᆦ႕ཙbؽ൞ളӁੱඣҵၳ֥҆ٳ҃หׄđॖસၞসളӁੱิശॖିྟбࢠնđၹطؿղݓࡅაؿᅚᇏݓࡅॖસၞ҆সളӁੱҵၳჹჹնႿ҂ॖસၞ҆b൞ֆ۱ളӁေބۚ؇ࣩᆚ൧ӆࢲܒࡌഡ༯đસၞ҆সш࠽Ӂथק۽ሧބࡎ۬bඹ൞ݓଽস৯൧ӆଽᄝᆜކྟđЌᆣਆ҆۽ሧնุཌྷ֩b۳קၛഈࢲܒྟࡌקđڶݓა౫ݓᆭࡗࡎ۬ඣсಖ߶ԛགྷ༢ҵၳčQ Ďđܓઙ৯ࡎቔູनޙ߸ੱં္ࣼթᄝ༢ொ༂bϘঘܴҳ ۱ݓࡅ ୍Ⴕܱэਈඔऌđؿགྷದन൬ೆսі֥ളӁੱඣაཌྷؓࡎ۬ᆭࡗթᄝཁᇷᆞཟ৳༢đູંࡌඪิ܂ਔԚ҄ࣜဒᆦӻčQQ Ďb ޓಸၞϜഈඍ࣡ٳ༅ࢲંഥܼ֞ٳ༅ӆކb࠻ಖหקൈׄഈളӁੱඣ҂ݓࡅཌྷؓࡎ۬҂đ۳קൈ௹ଽ҂ݓࡅসളӁੱ֥ൈྟэ ߶ஊളఃཌྷؓࡎ۬ཌྷႋэbϘঘᄝࢳཌྷؓࡎ۬ݓ࠽༢ҵၳൈđ္Їݣਔؓ҂ݓࡅളӁੱაཌྷؓࡎ۬эᆭࡗ৳༢֥ંbϘঘᄝં໓ᇏܴҳ ୍ૅݓބఃੂ۱ݓࡅčб০ൈaمݓa֣ݓaၩն০aႇݓaರЧĎᇅᄯြসളӁੱඔऌaસၞࡎ۬č81*Ďa(/1๙෪ᆷඔđؿགྷসളӁੱᄹӉࢠॹݓࡅೂರЧaمݓaၩն০֥֩(/1๙෪ᆷඔཌྷؓ81*ᆷඔཁᇷۚႿૅݓčQQ ĎbೂݔളӁੱэ߶֝ᇁཌྷؓࡎ۬ӻࣲྟčQFSNBOFOUĎэđ၇ऌཌྷؓܓઙ৯ࡎथקၬ߸ੱטᆜьॖିթᄝ༢ொ༂b ෙಖϘঘંଆࡌקસၞ҆সളӁੱა۽ሧб২эđᄝٳ༅ఃંࡌഡݣၬൈđٳљษંਔ۽ሧэؓളӁੱԊࠌ֥ᇕॖିّႋđၛࢣൕݓଽਆ҆ཌྷؓࡎ۬ࠧଽ҆ൌ࠽߸ੱᇕॖିטᆜࠏᇅđՖطᆃ၂ંࡌഡაࣜ࠶གྷൌ۷ູ์࣍bֻ၂ᇕࡌഡ౦ঃ൞ॖસၞ҆সളӁੱᄹӉࠊл۽ሧ҂эđࢲݔളӁੱᄹӉࢠॹ֥ॖસၞ҆ࡎ۬༯ࢆđ൞҂ॖસၞ҆ࡎ۬҂эđ֝ᇁ٤સၞཌྷؓࡎ۬ഈശđ၂Ϯࡎ༯ࢆږ؇֮Ⴟॖસၞࡎ۬ࢆږbֻؽᇕ౦ঃ൞ࠊл۽ሧa০აসളӁੱӮб২ᄹӉđસၞࡎ۬҂эđ൞ളӁੱᄹӉږ؇ࢠ֥֮٤સၞ҆۽ሧഈശږ؇ӑݖളӁੱഈശđ֝ᇁᆃ၂҆ཌྷؓࡎ۬ഈശၛࠣ၂Ϯࡎഈശbֻᇕ౦ঃඋႿᇏࡗሑđളӁੱሔۊ၂ٚ૫ႄೆ҂ॖસၞࡎ۬ഈശ৯đਸ਼၂ٚ૫ؓԛ१ބࣉ१ูսႄೆࡎ۬ ༯ࢆ৯č ်Ďbᆃൈݓଽ҂ॖસၞཌྷؓࡎ္۬߶ഈശđ൞၂Ϯࡎэٚཟթᄝ҂ಒקྟb ॖିႮႿ֒ൈܥק߸ੱᇅ֥གྷൌМࣟđ#BMBTTBč ĎીႵᆰࢤษંᇕ۽ሧטᆜࡌഡ෮πݣ֥๙ݖၬ߸ੱэൌགྷຓ҆ൌ࠽߸ੱטᆜॖିྟbೂݔॉ੮֞नޙ߸ੱٳ༅ӆކ๙ӈླေࡌഡ֥ݓ࠽൬ᆦޙ่ࡱđь҂ुԛϜၬ ࡎ۬ҵၳđ߶֝ᇁসೆૡ֥ࠢ٤સၞཌྷؓસၞࡎ۬ෛሢൌ࠽ದन൬ೆᄹӉđၹطڶღݓࡅ၂Ϯࡎඣࢠ֥ۚࢲંbႮႿࡌק٤સၞ҆সૡࠢđൌᇉഈაϘঘ ᠉غ೦ིႋসളӁੱ҆ҵၳ၂ᇁđၹطᄝંٳ༅Ҫ૫ॖၛࢳູՖሧჷጋڮྍ࢘؇ؓϘঘ ᠉غ೦ིႋิԛ֥ު࿃ҀԉྟӂඍbႮႿေࡎ۬бੱაসളӁੱཌྷб؇ਈॖି۷ࡆđྍࡌඪᄝࣜဒ࣮ഈ္ಌഒૼཁႪ൝b 11 As commented in Balassa (1964), “In the present instance, I have shown that, by incorporating non-traded goods in the model, the existence of a systematic relationship between purchasing power parities and exchange rates is indicated in inter-country as well as inter-temporal comparison”(pp. 595-96). гᆀႨ༯ོཌѓൕ֥໓ሳཁൕਔᆃ၂ંࡌඪ֥࣡ބݣၬb 12 ᆃൈॖસၞ҆ࡎ۬ିڎ༯ࢆၛࠣ༯ࢆږ؇đ҂ࣇა۽ሧᄹӉږ؇Ⴕܱđߎ౼थႿھݓඋႿoཬݓpߎ൞oնݓp֩ၹb 8
߸ੱቔູטࢫэਈაϘঘٳ༅֥ൌᇉࣚപѩ؛đѩ۷ьႿಆ૫ࢳຓ҆ൌ࠽߸ੱ֥ऎุטᆜࠏᇅbؓϘঘંᆃ၂ࢳđࠇᆀඪؓϘঘ ᠉غ೦ིႋࡆຉᅚ֥іඍđࡼᆃ၂ંଽᄝઆࠠ۷ູປᆜđ۷ژކ҃ূؘ ೦০ุ༢ၛުڜ߸ੱᇅࣜ࠶౦ঃđൈ္۷ьႿؿߨؓದлൌ࠽߸ੱဆэ൝ᆃোགྷའ֥మᄝٳ༅ۿିb ᄝϘঘଆᇏૼཁࡆࣉݓ࠽൬ᆦޙჿඏބၬ߸ੱॖэ่ࡱުđᄝഈඍֻ၂ᇕ۽ሧ҂эࡌഡ༯đॖસၞ҆ࡎ۬༯ࢆ৯ิശھ҆Ӂݓ࠽ࣩᆚ৯đ֝ᇁݓ࠽൧ӆٺح҂؎ঔնބસၞ႔Ⴥ҂؎ᄹࡆđႮՎஊള֥ݓ࠽൬ᆦാޙ৯ቋᇔ֝ᇁၬ߸ੱބൌ࠽߸ੱശᆴb္ࣼ൞ඪđᄝݓ࠽൬ᆦޙჿඏ่ࡱ༯đࠧьࡌഡ۽ሧэਈીႵؓളӁੱԊࠌቓԛّႋđളӁੱሔۊ္߶๙ݖၬ߸ ੱശᆴটൌགྷຓ҆ൌ࠽߸ੱശᆴေbᄝֻؽᇕࡌഡ༯đॖસၞ҆۽ሧഈശཨ߄ളӁੱཌྷؓᄹӉđֆ໊সӮЧބࡎ۬҂эđ൞҂ॖસၞ۽ሧഈശ֝ᇁ၂Ϯࡎഈശđѩᄝݓ࠽൬ᆦޙބၬ߸ੱնุ҂эМࣟ༯ൈൌགྷЧлଽ҆ބຓ҆ൌ࠽߸ੱശᆴbᄝֻᇕᇏࡗሑ༯đຓ҆ൌ࠽߸ੱ๙ݖݓଽࡎބၬ߸ੱശᆴቆކэൌགྷശᆴb aඔऌሧਘބൌᆣ࣮ۀඍ ෙಖ၂ᆰթᄝၩᆚંđϘঘ ᠉غ೦ིႋࢳཌྷؓࡎ۬ݓ࠽ҵၳ֥ંᇗေྟФ࿐ඌࢸܼٗࢤ൳đӮູࣉೆ֒սݓ࠽ࣜ࠶࿐ބष٢ޡܴࣜ࠶࿐֥࢝॓ѓሙଆčSachs and Larrianđ1992Ġक़ਗ਼۬ણđύѵථمغ֣đ1998Ďbಖطᆃ၂ંࡌඪ֥ࣜဒࢳ৯ೂޅĤᄝ࣮ࣜ࠶ष٢ӮӉМࣟ༯ದлൌ࠽߸ੱ໙ีൈđೂޅബ൪ః۽ऎၩၬބಪ്ۿିĤЧࢫࡥษંဒϘঘ ᠉غ೦ིႋടࠣඔऌሧਘ౦ঃၛࠣཌྷܱ໓ང࣮නਫ਼đު໓০Ⴈቋྍඔऌॉҳఃᇶေࣜဒᆣऌb ؓϘঘ ᠉غ೦ིႋࣉྛൌᆣဒđ൮༵ေ؇ਈ۲ݓൌ࠽߸ੱၛࠣٳ҆সളӁੱඔऌbൌ࠽߸ੱॖ০Ⴈਆোඔऌࡆၛ؇ਈb၂൞ᆰࢤ၇ऌൌ࠽߸ੱקၬč1 &1Ďđ০Ⴈ۲ݓၬ߸ੱބࡎඔऌࡆၛ؇ਈđ*.'֩ݓ࠽ࠏܒؿі֥EG۲ݓ߸ੱބࡎൈࡗਙඔऌđॖႨট࠹ෘൌ࠽߸ੱbؽ൞1FOO 5BCMFݓ࠽൬ೆбࢠඔऌၛࠣൗࢸၿྛᆜؿі֥োරඔऌđఃᇏЇݣ۲ݓཌྷؓࡎ۬ྐ༏đ္ ॖၛቔູൌ࠽߸ੱ֥࠹؇ਈb ٳ҆সളӁੱඔऌᄵթᄝࢠ؟bૅݓস۽अ࠹ਔࠫ۱ݓࡅᇅᄯြ֩҆সളӁੱඔऌđ0&$%࠹ਔ၂ུݓࡅٳྛြসളӁੱඔऌđಖط࠹ؓའ൞ؿղݓࡅđޓഒടࠣؿᅚᇏݓࡅބֹbᇝؿᅚၿྛ࠹ਔ 13ᆃᄍྸၬ߸ੱטᆜ֥આࠠٳ༅ေᄝਆᇗၩၬഈऎႵགྷൌྟb၂൞ࠧьᄝ҃ূؘ-೦ਟุ༢ପဢܥק߸ੱᇅ༯đ္թᄝؓ෮໌ӻ࿃ྟݓ࠽ാޙሑčchronically imbalance, or fundamental disequilibriumĎ֥߸ੱטᆜࠏᇅ(revaluation or devaluation)bؽ൞ೂݔসളӁੱཌྷؓᄹӉੱҵၳቀܔնđՖطࣜ࠶ሔۊӮູଖᇕӱ؇֥௴ђགྷའđପહϘঘં֥ൌ࠽߸ੱטᆜေđЧദॖିӮູ႕ཙ௴ђྟ߸ੱᇅ؇ဆэ֥၂۱ܱၹbᄝᆃ۱ၩၬഈđ࠻ॖၛඪࣜ࠶ሔۊଽള֥ൌ࠽߸ੱ൝҆ٳ๙ݖڜ߸ੱᇅൌགྷđ္ॖၛՖᇅ؇ଽള࢘؇ಪູЧദ߶՜ڜ߸ੱᇅԛགྷbᆃ္ྸିՖ၂۱ҧ૫ࢳ҃ূؘ-೦ਟุ༢ຐࢳބෛުڜ߸ੱᇅԛགྷb 14 ೂOfficerč1974, 1976a, 1976bĎؓϘঘ-᠉غ೦ིႋࡌඪิԛđEdwards and Savastano (1999) ؓᆃ၂ંิԛࢠ؟ᇂၐđᆃো໓ངౠཟႿ۷؟ड़קܓઙ৯ࡎࡌඪ֥ކྟބࢳ৯b 15 ၇ऌభ૫ษંđཌྷؓࡎ۬აൌ࠽߸ੱЧᇉ၂ᇁb 9
۱ᇝݓࡅބֹٳྛြসളӁੱඔऌđ۲ݓ࠹ྛြ߃ٳٚم҂đೂ၂ུݓࡅࡼ۽ြቔູᆜุࣉྛނෘđીႵֆᇅᄯြඔऌđѩൈࡗ္ᆺିഈි֞ ୍bਸ਼ຓϘঘ ᠉غ೦ིႋࡌඪࡹ৫ᄝॖસၞა҂ॖસၞ҆ളӁੱбࢠҵၳࠎԤഈđࠧьႵ۲҆সളӁੱඔऌđਆ҆ٳো࠹؇ਈ္ಯಖ൞ࠟ൭໙ีbসളӁੱ҆࠹ඔऌॖࠆ֤ྟཋᇅđܒӮဒϘঘ ᠉غ೦ི ႋ֥ีᆭ၂b Ϙঘ ᠉غ೦ིႋ໙ൗ୍ࠫটđݓ࠽ࣜ࠶࿐ࢸᄝൌᆣဒٚ૫ࣉྛਔྸ؟Ⴕࡎᆴ֥࣮b၇ऌؓھਵთ໓ངԚܴ҄ҳđႵܱ࣮նุҐႨোٚمb၂൞০Ⴈࢩ૫ඔऌđ๙ݖٳ༅۳קൈׄ҂ݓࡅཌྷؓࡎ۬ٳ҃ྙটॉҳϘঘ ᠉غ೦ིႋࢳ৯bႮႿഈඍসളӁੱඔऌॖࠆ֤ྟٚ૫đᆃো࣮၂Ϯ০Ⴈದन൬ೆսіཌྷؓসളӁੱđܴҳބܙ࠹҂ࣜ࠶ุದन൬ೆაൌ࠽߸ੱᆭࡗ৳༢bϘঘ ୍ં໓০Ⴈ ݓཌྷܱඔऌؓఃંࡌඪ෮ቓ֥Ԛ҄ဒьҐႨᆃ၂ٚمbEdwards and Savastano (1999đ) і4ਙई15ཌྷܱൌᆣ࣮໓ངđधն҆ٳҐႨᆃোٚمbЧ໓ު૫ࡼ০Ⴈቋྍඔऌࣉྛোරဒđѩር༥ࢳᆃোٳ༅ࢲݔࠣఃࣜ࠶ݣၬb ؽ൞০Ⴈൈࡗਙඔऌٳ༅หקݓࡅࣜ࠶ӮӉݖӱᇏϘঘ-᠉غ೦ིႋіགྷb২ೂHsieh (1982) ٳ༅1954-1976ರЧބ֣ݓؓᇶေસၞࠄϴཌྷؓসളӁੱҵၳ֥ൈࡗਙඔऌđؿགྷϘঘ-᠉غ೦ིႋିཁᇷࢳᆃ၂ൈ௹ರჭބઔक़Ⴕིൌ࠽߸ੱэbMarston
০Ⴈ ୍ࡗರЧބૅݓ҆সളӁੱඔऌđؿགྷႮႿರЧॖસၞ҆সളӁੱཌྷؓॹᄹӉđေЌӻૅݓॖસၞࣩ҆ᆚ৯նุ҂эđࣼླေರЧ۽ሧնږഈശࠇૅჭնږъᆴđඪૼളӁੱཌྷؓሔۊؓರჭཌྷؓૅჭൌ࠽߸ੱശᆴ൝ऎႵඔਈࢳቔႨčֻ a ်ĎbIto et al.č Ďбࢠ"1&$Ӯჴࣜ࠶ุ ୍ದन(%1ᄹӉੱބൌ࠽߸ੱэܱ༢đॉҳ൞ڎթᄝϘঘ ᠉غ೦ིႋđѩٳ༅ࠏྀ ԛ१ᄝሹԛ१ᇏ෮ᅝбᇗэؓϘঘ ᠉غ೦ིႋ֥ᆷѓၩၬbChinn, Menzie David (1997) ٳ༅ЇওᇏݓaರЧaຖaૅݓᄝଽ֥۱ࣜ࠶ุ1970-92୍ඔऌđؿགྷཌྷؓসളӁੱaᆟکᆦԛᅝGDPбᇗaൌ࠽െႲࡎ۬֩ၹؓൌ࠽߸ੱэऎႵ၂קӱ؇ࢳቔႨđ൞ᇏݓaݓ֩ۚᄹӉݓࡅܒӮ২ຓčֻ5a6-7a16်Ďb 182004୍5ᄅđ۱ᇏתބଲݓࡅࡆೆૐđᆃུݓࡅაఃૐӮჴ ݓᆭࡗၬაൌ࠽൬৻൞ڎ߶ؿള؛đႄఏ࿐ඌࢸܱᇿބ҂ၩđᆃো 16 ҆ٳഈඍࠏܒຩᆶЇওğIMF(International Monetary Fund) Bank of Labor Statistics) ( Organizsation for Economic Co-operation and Development) Labour Organization) Development Bank) 17 ၂Ϯඔऌܴҳؿགྷᇏݓ൞outlierđھ໓ၛุᇅሇၹࡆၛࢳğoᇏݓԩႿՖ࠹߃֞൧ӆࣜ࠶֥٤࿙ӈሇݖӱᆭᇏpčֻ6်Ďbᇏݓ௹Ԛč1973୍Ď߸ੱॖିۚܙđࣜӈᅬԅሳၹູۚуৈીႵཁൕԛটđڿ۪ު߸ੱъᆴ֝ᇁԛ१ބᄹӉࡆॹlloൌ࠽߸ੱъᆴ҂൞ࣜ࠶ᄹӉ֥ࢲݔđط൞ԛ१֝ཟࣜ࠶ᄹӉ֥భิpbllุᇅڿ۪֝ᇁൌ࠽߸ੱъᆴѩᄹӉčֻ15-17်Ďbھ໓ᄝษંתૐࠫ۱ݓࡅࣜ࠶ۚᄹӉൈൌ࠽߸ੱીႵഈശჰၹൈđಪູॖିაնਈԚࠩӁԛ१Ⴕܱč15်Ďb 18 Cyprus, Czech Republic (2004୍1020 ຣದ१đದन9150ૅჭ), Estonia, Hungary č1010ຣđ 8270ૅჭĎ, Latvia č230ຣđ5460ૅჭĎ, Lithuania č340ຣđ5470ૅჭĎ, Malta, Poland č3820ຣđ6090ૅჭĎ, Slovakia č540ຣđ6480ૅჭĎand Slovenia č200ຣđ14810ૅჭĎb҆ٳݓࡅದ१ބದन൬ೆඔऌđWorld Bank, WDR 2006b 19 ᆃ෮໌ၬ൬৻đᆷMaastricht Treaty ෮ܿק֥convergence criteriađᇶေЇওၛ༯ေğ1Ď๙ࠊளᅮ҂ିۚႿEMUčᇝࠊл৳ૐĎቋ֮۱Ӯჴݓ۱Ϥٳׄၛഈb2ĎᆟکӉ௹ᅏಊ০ੱ҂ିۚႿEMU 10
࣮๙ӈ০Ⴈཌྷܱൈࡗਙඔऌܙ࠹ᆃུݓࡅϘঘ-᠉غ೦ིႋbೂHalpern and Wyplosz (2001)০Ⴈࣴ۱ᇏתሇݓࡅ1990୍սඔऌđܙ࠹Ϙঘ-᠉غ೦ིႋଆđؿགྷᆃུݓࡅ۽ြބڛༀြসളӁੱҵएିཁᇷࢳఃൌ࠽߸ੱэbყҩೂݔᆃུݓࡅໃটૄ୍Ϙঘ-᠉غ೦ིႋջট֥ൌ࠽߸ੱശᆴ%ቐႷđೂࡆೆૐުࣉೆૐ߸ੱࠏᇅѩቋᇔӮູჭӮჴݓđൌ࠽൬৻აၬ൬৻߶ؿള؛đѩॖିႄؿࠊлາࠏčֻ1a7a19်ĎbEgert et al.,(2003)aMihaljek and Klau (2003)ؿགྷᇏתݓࡅളӁੱॹᄹӉ֝ᇁ၂קӱ؇ཌྷؓࡎഈᅨđ൞ఃඔਈӱ؇Ⴕཋđ҂ቀၛؓᆃུݓࡅࡆೆૐބࣉೆࠊл၂ุ߄༢Ӂളൌᇉྟ႕ཙbWincenciak (2005) ٳ༅ѯধ ୍࠱؇ඔऌđؿགྷϘঘ ᠉غ೦ིႋ֝ᇁૄ୍ჿ ۱Ϥٳׄൌ࠽߸ੱശᆴđၹطᆃোૐྍӮჴݓᙡ൯ઔჿၬ൬৻ѓሙթᄝb ൞ܙ࠹ࠎЧनޙൌ࠽߸ੱ֥࠹ਈ࣮đ္ऎႵဒϘঘ ᠉غ೦ིႋݣၬbࠎЧनޙൌ࠽߸ੱۀॖሔි֞20ൗࡀ40୍սഡ࠹IMFטࢫۿି֥Ⴕܱ࣮đWilliamsonč1983Ďگྖᆃ၂࣮ၰӱѩުটԛགྷܙ࠹ࠎЧनޙ߸20ੱ֥ࣜဒ࣮bᆃো໓ངᄝษંनޙൌ࠽߸ੱथקၹൈđ๙ӈЇওսіϘঘ-᠉غ೦ིႋэਈbೂWilliamsonč1983đp. 5Ďಪູቆᇶေၹ႕ཙӉ௹नޙൌ࠽߸ੱđఃᇏֻ၂ቆၹࣼ൞҂ݓࡅളӁੱᄹӉbEdwardsč1989Ď21ؓؿᅚᇏݓࡅनޙൌ࠽߸ੱथקၹ֥༢ษં္ЇওളӁੱ҆ҵၳၹb Montiel (1999đppđ238-240) Ϝनޙൌ࠽߸ੱथקၹٳູਆোđ၂൞აϘঘ-᠉غ೦ིႋཌྷ৳༢֥ളӁੱཌྷؓᄹӉ֩܂۳૫ၹđؽ൞҂҆ླ൬ೆྟ֩ླ૫ࠎЧၹčdemand-side fundamentalsĎ֩bᆃো࣮ᄝࣉྛनޙൌ࠽߸ੱ࠹ਈଆܙ࠹ൈđ๙ӈಯҐႨದन൬ೆࠇದन(%1ᆭোᆷѓսูসളӁੱđࢲݔႵ֥࣮ؿགྷھэਈؓൌ࠽߸ੱऎႵཁᇷࢳቔႨđ္Ⴕ֤֞ܙ࠹༢ඔ҂ཁᇷമᇀژݼაંࡌഡཌྷّࢲݔč&EXBSETđ đ ်Ďb୍࣍Ⴕܱದ лनޙൌ࠽߸ੱ࠹ਈଆ؟ཛ࣮đҐႨোරԩٚمѩ֤֞োරࢲݔb a০Ⴈ؟ݓࢩ૫ඔऌဒϘঘ၂᠉غིႋ ๙ݖٳ༅ݓљದन൬ೆაൌ࠽߸ੱܱ༢ဒϘঘ ᠉غ೦ིႋđЇݣؓᆰࢤ؇ਈཌྷܱэਈඔऌ֥э๙ԩٚمbૌᆩ֡Ϙঘ ᠉غ೦ིႋࡌഡॖસၞ҆সളӁੱཌྷؓᄹӉ႕ཙཌྷؓࡎ۬ඣbႮႿᄝ؟ݓဢЧ࣮ӆކࠆ֤ॖસၞ҆সളӁੱඔऌສສթᄝࢠ؟đၹطႨದन൬ೆᆷѓቔູളӁੱูսᆷѓbࣼࣜ࠶Ӊ௹ؿᅚ֥ൌᇉܱ༢طđದन൬ೆิۚ౼थႿসളӁੱิശđၹطᆃ၂ูսٚمႵކྟbಖطᆃ၂э๙ԩπݣࡌഡაགྷൌమᄝ҂ ۱๙ࠊளᅮੱቋ֮ݓࡅनᆴ֥2۱Ϥٳׄb3Ď߸ੱсྶᄝቋԚਆ୍ܥקđ҂ିொࡎᆞڵ15%đ҂ିႵܲٚъᆴb4Ďᆟکԅሳ҂ݓଽۚႿGDP֥3%ၛഈb5Ď܄܋҆ᅏༀ҂ିӑݖGDP֥60%čҕWincenciakđ2005đֻ3်)b 20 Ⴕܱᆃ၂ਵთ࣮֥ൎМࣟބᇶေ໓ངҕڃč2006Ďb 21 ھ࣮ӫູoඌࣉ҄pིႋၛࠣoRicardo-Balassa”ིႋđϜϘঘં໓ࢳູ൞ؓܓઙ৯ࡎ֥ᇗྍࢳč47a136a141်Ďbᄝࡥંᆃ၂ંࡌഡМࣟൈཿ֡ğ”David Ricardo (1821/1971) is considered to have been the first to postulate explicitly the existence of a negative relation between economic growth and the equilibrium relative price of tradables to nontradables. Later a number of authors, including Pigou (1922), pointed out within the context of the PPP debate that there is a tendency for the relative prices of tradables to nontradables to differ across countries; higher-income countries would tend to have a lower relative price between these two groups of goods. However, it was only in Balassa’s (1964) reinterpretation of the PPP theory that the theoretical foundations of the proposition were clearly set forwardčp. 47Ď”b 22 ҕڃč2006ĎؓҐႨᆃ၂ٚم࣮ದлनޙൌ࠽߸ੱ10۱࠹ਈଆ࣮֥ඍb 11
၂ᇁđ္߶֝ᇁൌᆣٳ༅ཌྷႋ༂ҵb۳קഈඍࢳđЧࢫ০Ⴈቋྍݓљൌ࠽߸ੱބದन൬ೆඔऌđܴҳϘঘ ᠉غ೦ིႋ֥ࣜဒࢳ৯b Бۡ ୍ಆ౯ ۱ݓࡅބࣜ࠶ุൌ࠽߸ੱၛࠣႨ߸ੱߐෘૅჭದन൬ೆbඔऌཁൕؽᆀᆭࡗऎႵૼཁ৳༢đնุྙ൞ᄝ൬ೆࢠ֮ൈൌ࠽߸ੱࢠ ֮đ൬ೆࢠۚൈൌ࠽߸ੱࢠۚđᇏᆰཌ൞ဢЧܴҩᆴ֥ཌྟ൝ܙ࠹ཌđ3ᆴཁൕ۲ݓൌ࠽߸ੱҵၳჿϖӮᄝ࠹ഈିФದन൬ೆэਈࢳđದन൬ೆэਈܙ࠹༢ඔۚ؇ཁᇷđUᆴູ bႮՎॖđݓљбࢠඔऌᆜุҪ૫ᆦӻϘঘ ᠉غ೦ིႋ֥ཁᇷࣜဒᆣऌb БۡഈඍဢЧඔऌؓඔᆴބোරଆܙ࠹đဢᄝᆜุྙഈཁᇷᆦӻϘঘ ᠉غ೦ིႋࡌඪb ğ۲ݓದन൬ೆაൌ࠽߸ੱč Ď Z Y 3 ದनݓ൬ೆčతૅჭĎ ඔऌটჷބඪૼğWorld Bank World Development Report 2006 . ದन൬ೆ൞ၛ߸ੱߐෘ෮֤ඔऌđൌ࠽߸ੱ൞Ⴎ۲ݓದन߸ੱޙਈGNPԢၛದनPPP࠹ෘGNP෮֤ཌྷؓࡎ۬b܋130۱ݓࡅඔऌb a۲ݓದन൬ೆაൌ࠽߸ੱؓඔܱ༢č Ď Z Y 3 ᇏݓ ದनݓ൬ೆؓඔčૅჭĎ ඔऌটჷğა1ཌྷb 12ൌ࠽߸ੱൌ࠽߸ੱؓඔ
ෙಖ؟ݓࢩ૫ඔऌᆜุཁൕϘঘ ᠉غ೦ིႋܱ༢đಖطඔऌ္ิൕᆃ၂ܱ༢ᄝ҂൬ೆ؍թᄝཁᇷҵљđᄝ࠹ഈіགྷູॖିթᄝၳٚҵ໙ีb a ٳљБۡഈඍਆ۱ܙ࠹ٚӱҗҵđնุཁൕᄝ൬ೆࢠ֮؍җҵࢠնđ൬ ೆࢠۚࢨ؍җҵࢠ֮bཌྷܱ࠹ဒӱཁൕթᄝཁᇷၳٚҵb aϘঘིႋඣᆴཌྟܙ࠹ٚӱҗҵٳ҃
ದनݓ൬ೆčతૅჭĎ ඔऌটჷğა1ཌྷb aϘঘིႋؓඔཌྟܙ࠹ٚӱҗҵٳ҃
ᇏݓ ದनݓ൬ೆؓඔčૅჭĎ ඔऌটჷğა1ཌྷb 232 ҐႨBreusch-Pagan / Cook-Weisberg ဒٚمđਆ۱ܙ࠹ٚӱχ (1)࠹ਈܙ࠹ᆴٳљູ ބđ2طχ (1)࠹ਈᄝ1%ཁᇷӱ؇ഈਢࢸᆴູ 13 ୍ؓඔܙ࠹ٚӱҗҵ ୍ඣᆴܙ࠹ٚӱҗҵ
ߎॖၛٳ൬ೆ؍ܙ࠹Ϙঘ ᠉غ೦ིႋٚӱࣉ၂҄ษંᆃ၂໙ีbϜ ۱ࣜ࠶ุܴҳᆴ၇ऌದन൬ೆඣٳູ۱ՑࠩဢЧđٳљܙ࠹Ϙঘ ᠉غ೦ིႋؓඔཌྟٚӱbі Бۡܙ࠹ࢲݔğ ۱ܴҳᆴቆӮ֥ದन൬ೆᄝ ૅჭၛ༯ဢЧᇏđ3ᆴཁൕದन൬ೆэਈࣇିࢳնჿ ൌ࠽߸ੱҵၳđᆃ၂ࢳб২ᄝ ۱ܴҳᆴቆӮ֥ ૅჭᇏ֩ದन൬ೆဢЧᇏิശ֞ đ ૅჭၛഈ ۱ᇏഈ֩ބۚ൬ೆࣜ࠶ุဢЧᇏնږഈശ֞࣍ b і1a҂൬ೆ؍Ϙঘ-᠉غ೦ིႋؓඔܙ࠹č2004Ď ൬ೆ؍ ૅჭ
ၛഈ ဢЧඔ 3ٚ ܙ࠹༢ඔ ༢ඔѓሙҵ Uᆴ ඔऌটჷğა1ཌྷb Ϙঘ ᠉غ೦ིႋᄝ֮ۚ൬ೆࣜ࠶ุᆭࡗࢳ৯ҵၳॖିაਆٚ૫ၹႵܱb၂൞൳֞ؓসളӁੱ؇ਈ༂ҵࠣఃٳ҃ྙ֥႕ཙbসളӁੱཌྷݓࡅᆭࡗದन൬ೆॖି҂đՖطջট࠹༂ҵb২ೂসളӁੱཌྷਆݓೂݔԩႿದ१ࢲܒэ҂ࢨ؍đದ१൪ԳčEFNPHSBQIJD XJOEPXTĎၹथק֥স৯ᅝሹದ१бᇗ҂߶֝ᇁದन൬ೆҵၳbؓႿሇࣜ࠶টඪđೂݔุࣸᇅ༯ሧჷᇂᇗ౷đնਈሧჷᇌᄝ֮ളӁੱ҆đൌྛ൧ӆ߄౼ཟڿ۪ծീުđࠧь۲҆সളӁੱնุ҂эđሧჷေՖࢠི֮ੱ҆ੀཟࢠིۚੱ֥҆ᇗቆིႋđᄝ၂קൈ௹Ⴕॖିࣜ࠶ॹᄹӉބದन൬ೆิശbᆃো֝ᇁದन൬ೆაসളӁੱ҂၂ᇁၹᇶေᄝࣜ࠶ؿᅚࢠᄪ௹ࢨ؍ؿള႕ཙđႮՎؿള֥؇ਈ༂ҵቔႨႋᇶေࠢᇏᄝ֮൬ೆ؍đၹطᄝ၂קӱ؇ഈ֝ᇁϘঘ ᠉غ೦ིႋܱ༢ؓ൬ೆ؍ૹۋ֥ܙ࠹ࢲݔbᄝᆃ۱ၩၬഈđ໙ี҂൞টሱંࡌඪđط൞ႮႿؓંэਈ؇ਈٚمअཋđၛٳϘঘ ᠉غ೦ིႋა෮o໌5IF 1FOO &GGFDUpᆭࡗҵљč$IJOOđQ Ďb ؽ൞ൌ࠽߸ੱэ൳֞ളӁੱၛຓၹ႕ཙđೂݔཌྷؓളӁੱၛຓၹٳ҃ა൬ೆඣཌྷܱđ္ॖି֝ᇁܙ࠹ࢲݔഈඍ໙ีbᆃඋႿંࡌඪЧദअཋྟđؓࢳഈඍܙ࠹ࢲݔ໙ีॖି۷ູᇗေb২ೂ၇ऌ֒սࠎЧनޙൌ࠽߸ੱં၂ϮࢳđളӁੱၛຓޓ؟ၹ႕ཙൌ࠽߸ੱbસၞ่ࡱэॖି߶๙ݖูսބ൬ೆིႋ႕ཙൌ࠽߸ੱbᆟکᆦԛބሧᆦԛࢲܒᇏਆ҆б২ؿളཁᇷэđ္ॖିՖླ࢘؇ؓൌ࠽߸ੱؿള႕ཙbܱۚඥaຓસඔਈ॥ᇅaຓ߸ܵᇅ֩ծീॖିᄝ၂؍ࢠӉൈ௹ົӻൌ࠽߸ੱۚܙđѩݓଽࣜ࠶෭קᄝི֮ᄎྛሑbᇏݓᆃဢሼཟष٢֥ሇࣜ࠶đൌྛ٢ܵᇅބࢆ֮уৈᆟҦđ߶ᄝ҂ࢨ؍ؓൌ࠽߸ੱӁള҂႕ཙbᆃোၹэၳӱ؇ᄝࣜ࠶ؿᅚᄪ௹ࢠնđॖିܒӮ֮ᇏ൬ೆࡗϘঘ ᠉غ೦ིႋܱ༢ࢠ֥ᇗေჰၹĠطࣜ࠶ӮӉࣉೆᇏۚ൬ೆࠇۚ൬ೆᄹӉ֥Ӯඃ௹ުđᆃোၹэၳӱ؇ࢠ֮đၹطϘঘ ᠉غ೦ིႋࢠ఼b 14
aϘঘ ᠉غ೦ིႋӉ௹൬৻ྟဒ ਸ਼၂ᇕൌᆣٳ༅ٚم
൞ܴҳหקൈ௹ؓϘঘ ᠉غ೦ིႋܱ༢ொሑᄝࣜݖᄝ၂؍ࢠӉטࢫ௹ު൞ڎ߶ཁᇷ൬৻bᆃোٳ༅္০Ⴈݓљࢩ૫ඔऌࣉྛđЇও۱ཌྷ৳༢֥ܙ࠹ӱbֻ၂҄ܙ࠹ଖ۱࿊ᄴࠎ௹୍ٺϘঘ ᠉غ೦ིႋٚӱđϜھٚӱҗҵቔູؓϘঘ ᠉غ೦ིႋܱ༢ொ֥ܙ࠹bֻؽ҄ܙ࠹၂؍ࢠӉטᆜ௹iiбೂ୍ު֥Ϙঘ ᠉غ೦ིႋٚӱđ֤֞ھ୍ܙ࠹ٚӱ֥ކᆴbֻ҄ܙ࠹Їݣਆ۱ࢳэਈ֥ຉᅚ֥Ϙঘ ᠉غ೦ིႋٚӱđఃᇏ၂۱эਈ൞ֻؽ֤֥҄֞ކᆴčোරႿؓھ୍ದन൬ೆܙ࠹Ďđਸ਼၂۱൞ֻ၂୍҄భܙ࠹ٚӱҗҵཛđѩ๙ݖܴҳຉᅚٚӱᇏҗҵཛܙ࠹༢ඔژݼބඔᆴնཬđট؎ؓϘঘ ᠉غ೦ིႋܱ༢ொᄝӉ௹൞ڎ߶ؿള൬৻ၛࠣ൬৻ӱ؇ೂޅ֩໙ีb Kravis and Lipsey
ބ Frankel
ҐႨഈඍٚمဒϘঘ ᠉غ೦ིႋႵིྟb'SBOLFMč ĎᄎႨᆃ၂ٚم࣮ದлൌ࠽߸ੱbھ໓০Ⴈ ބ ୍ཌྷܱඔऌࣉྛٳ༅đᄝ ୍Ϙঘ ᠉غ೦ིႋຉᅚܙ࠹ٚӱᇏđ୍֒Ϙঘ ᠉غ೦ིႋࡥֆٚӱކᆴܙ࠹༢ඔູ čࢤ࣍ ĎĠ ୍Ϙঘ ᠉غ೦ིႋܙ࠹ٚӱҗҵཛܙ࠹༢ඔູ ѩۚ؇ཁᇷđၹط࠹ഈॖၛࢳູ ୍җҵ֞ ୍߶ࢆ֮ჿ၂϶đࠧϘঘ ᠉غ೦ིႋܱ༢ொᄝ୍ࡗ൬৻၂϶ቐႷbႮႿ ୍ದлൌ࠽߸ੱၛھ୍Ϙঘ ᠉غ೦ིႋܙ࠹ٚӱູѓሙޙਈնჿ֮ܙ đၹطFrankel࢝൱ંࠧьᇏݓՎުളӁੱሔۊࣉӱᇏᆸđ୍ުčࠧ֞ ୍Ďದлൌ࠽߸ੱؓϘঘ ᠉غ೦ܱ༢ொ္߶טᆜ၂϶đࠧശᆴ ቐႷb ᆃ၂࣮ऎႵఓؿྟđгᆀ္ၩದлൌ࠽߸ੱໃটթᄝശᆴ൝؎đಖطھ໓ٳ༅ٚمބંઆࠠթᄝਆׄၐ໙b၂൞၇ऌਆ۱ൈ֥ׄޘ؎૫ඔऌܙ࠹ࢲݔཁൕ֥җҵ൬৻ܱ༢đᄝൈྟݖӱ൞ڎऎႵӻ࿃ྟࠇֆטྟđՖطЌᆣҗҵ҂؎෪ཬĠߎ൞ॖିԛགྷٚཟሇđҗҵэܱ༢ሇູؿbൈྟݖӱᇏҗҵཛܱ༢൞ֆטэߎ൞ॖିሇđؓࢳᆃ၂ࢲݔ֥ࣜ࠶ބᆟҦݣၬऎႵܱၩၬbؽ൞۳קਆ۱ൈׄဢЧཁᇷթᄝҗҵ൬৻ܱ༢đ၇ऌဢЧܱ༢ؓ۱љܴҳׄໃট൬৻൝ં֥ॖौྟӱ؇ೂޅđᆃ၂ׄؓܙ০Ⴈഈඍٳ༅ࢲݔંದлൌ࠽߸ੱ൝ऎႵܱၩၬb൮༵ษંֻ၂ׄၐ໙b ෙಖ࠹ᆣऌཁൕࡗۯ୍ਆ۱ൈׄϘঘ ᠉غ೦ིႋܙ࠹ٚӱҗҵթᄝ൬৻іགྷđಖطႮՎิԛؓᆃোҗҵܱ༢֥௴ђྟંđߎླေܴҳൈྟݖӱᇏభު҂୍ٺҗҵ൞ڎթᄝֆט൬৻ܱ༢bೂݔ҂թᄝӻ࿃־ࡨඋྟđପહ୍ᆭࡗҗҵ࠹৳༢ࣼѩ҂ऎႵؓໃটҗҵэٚཟં֥၇ऌđၹູၩ၂୍җҵൈ္ॖିაఃཌྷۯࡗए҂୍ٺҗҵؿള৳༢đၹطॖିႵ҂ڮᆴb ູษંᆃ၂໙ีđૌܙ࠹ ୍Ϙঘ ᠉غ೦ིႋܱ༢ٚӱđൈܙ࠹Վު୍č Ďࡗ୍Ϙঘ ᠉غ೦ིႋຉᅚٚӱbі Бۡܙ࠹ࢲݔđؿགྷ ୍җҵཛᄝ ୍֞ ୍ຉᅚٚӱᇏა୍җҵऎႵֆט൬৻ܱ༢đ൞Վު൬৻ܱ༢ሇູؿܱ༢đࠧ ୍җҵཛᄝ ୍ຉᅚٚӱᇏܙ࠹༢ඔა ୍ཌྷб҂ࣇીႵࣉ၂҄༯ࢆđّطႵ෮ᄹࡆđѩᆃ၂༢ඔᆰ֞ ୍ӻ࿃־ᄹbႮՎॖđ҂୍ٺᆭࡗҗҵཛܱ༢թᄝэၳྟbห 15
ק୍ٺؓϘঘ ᠉غ೦ིႋொӱ؇ބྙđ൳֞Վభޓ؟୍ٺোරொ֥҂ӱ؇႕ཙđၹطႨหק୍ٺؓՎభଖ۱୍ٺҗҵᆭࡗ࠹৳༢đຓໃটҗ ҵэරެಌكૡ֥આࠠ၇ऌb і2aϘঘིႋܱ༢җҵ൬৻ྟܙ࠹č83۱ܴҳᆴĎ ୍ٺ ୍֒#4ٚӱކᆴ Uᆴ ୍#4ٚӱҗҵཛ Uᆴ 3 ඔऌটჷބඪૼğWorld Bank World Development Reportbದन൬ೆ൞ၛ߸ੱߐෘ෮֤ඔऌđൌ࠽߸ੱ൞Ⴎ۲ݓದन߸ੱޙਈGNPԢၛದनPPP࠹ෘGNP෮֤ཌྷؓࡎ۬bࣉೆᆃ၂ٳ༅ݖӱ֥ࣜ࠶ุླေᄝᆜ۱ܴҳ௹Ⴕཌྷܱඔऌđડቀᆃ၂ေ֥ൌ࠽০ႨဢЧܴҩᆴູ ۱b ֻؽׄၐ໙൞đ۳קਆ۱୍ٺᆭࡗϘঘ ᠉غ೦ིႋٚӱҗҵթᄝཁᇷ࠹ܱ༢đೂݔᆃ၂ܙ࠹ࢲݔ҂ିࢠݺડቀٚҵ่ࡱđ၇ऌଖ۱ݓࡅܴҳᆴؓϘঘ ᠉غ೦ིႋܙ࠹ٚӱொটંఃໃট൬৻౦ঃđಯॖିթᄝಌഒсေ࠹၇ऌ֥໙ีbᆃܱ൞ေॉҳཌྷႋϘঘ ᠉غ೦ຉᅚܙ࠹ٚӱ൞ڎթᄝၳٚҵ໙ีbഈ૫ܙ࠹ ୍ࡗ୍ຉᅚϘঘ ᠉غ೦ིႋܱ༢ٚӱđु֞ ୍җҵཛ൬৻ቔႨ֞ ୍іགྷቋԉٳđၹطॖၛ๙ݖܴҳ ୍ຉᅚܙ࠹ٚӱҗҵٳ҃টษંᆃ၂໙ีb Бۡ ୍ຉᅚܙ࠹ٚӱҗҵٳ҃đਸ਼ຓܙ࠹ ୍ࡥֆϘঘིႋܙ࠹ٚӱҗҵཛა ୍ٚӱҗҵཛᆭࡗཌྙٚӱđ Бۡᆃ၂oҗҵܙ࠹ٚӱp֥җҵٳ҃bܴҳྙॖਆ۱ܙ࠹ٚӱҗҵૼཁაဢЧದन൬ೆэਈཌྷܱđ࠹ဒؿགྷཁᇷթᄝၳٚҵ ໙ีbၹط০Ⴈഈඍᆜุܙ࠹ࢲݔં۱љݓࡅ၂קൈ௹ଽҗҵ൬৻ږ؇đ൞ڎթᄝቀܔ࠹၇ऌ္ߎ൞၂۱໙ีb ሸഈ෮ඍđ๙ݖܙ࠹җҵ൬৻උྟটဒϘঘ ᠉غ೦ིႋѩؓଖဢЧؓའཌྷؓࡎ۬ໃটሼ൝ิԛંđٚمྍ႖ѩႵఓؿྟđಖطંࣈྟٚ૫෮թၐ໙ߎॖၛࣉ၂҄ฐษb նุطđ০Ⴈࢩ૫ඔऌဒϘঘ ᠉غ೦ིႋࡌඪॖၛ֤֞ਆٚ૫ࢲݔb၂ٚ૫ؓϘঘ ᠉غ೦ིႋิ܂ਔཁᇷᆦӻᆣऌbؓЇওԩႿ҂൬ೆࢨ؍؟ݓࢠնဢЧটඪđᆜุഈթᄝཁᇷϘঘ ᠉غ೦ིႋܱ༢đඪૼᄝࣜ࠶ӮӉಆݖӱᇏđཌྷؓࡎ۬ಒൌթᄝཟܓઙ৯ࡎ૭ඍሑӉ௹൬৻൝đၹطࣜ࠶ሔۊࣉӱࠇӾࠇᄪ߶૫ਢൌ࠽߸ੱശᆴग़ܴ൝bՖϘঘ ᠉غ೦ིႋაܓઙ৯ࡎંᆚંචٚটुđᆃ၂ᆰࢤड़קభᆀࣜဒᆣऌ֥ࢲݔđൈ္ॖ 24 ္ॖၛՖ၂Ϯઆࠠഈษંᆃ၂໙ีbᆃ၂ٚمಪູ၂קൈ௹ொᄝൈྟݖӱᇏ߶ᇯ҄൬৻đಖطૌܙ࠹֥ޅ၂۱۳קൈׄϘঘ-᠉غ೦ིႋܱ༢ࠣఃொሑđЧദ൞ՎభӉ௹മᇀ౫௹ဆэࢲݔđၹطೂݔഈඍҗҵӻ࿃൬৻ંಒൌӮ৫đޅ၂۱ൈ௹֥Ϙঘ-᠉غ೦ིႋٚӱđఃொႋ֒ᄝՎభӉ௹טᆜݖӱᇏնุປӮđ္ࣼ҂ႋ֒թᄝཁᇷொགྷའbّݖটඪđೂݔၩ၂୍Ϙঘ-᠉غ೦ིႋٚӱܙ࠹ࢲݔթᄝཁᇷொđᄵؓഈඍֆטטᆜބ൬৻ݖӱඋྟิԛᇂၐb 252ҐႨBreusch-Pagan / Cook-Weisberg ဒٚمđਆ۱ܙ࠹ٚӱχ (1)࠹ਈܙ࠹ᆴٳљູބđط2χ (1)࠹ਈᄝ1%ཁᇷӱ؇ഈਢࢸᆴູ 16
ၛФࢳູؓܓઙ৯ࡎં֥ᆦӻbၹູᆃোࣜဒᆣऌൈཁൕđܓઙ৯ࡎಯऎႵଖᇕनޙ߸ੱંݣၬđᆺ҂ݖᆃ၂नޙۀؓႋ֥טࢫݖӱđ൞๙ӈ෮ඪ֥ࣜ࠶ؿᅚಆݖӱb္ࣼ൞ඪđᆃൈܓઙ৯ࡎؓႋ֥नޙđ൞ླေ၂ᇕห൹֥oӑࠩטࢫpটൌགྷ֥၂ᇕห൹֥oӑࠩनޙpb aϘঘིႋ൬৻ྟܙ࠹ٚӱҗҵٳ҃ྙ* ದनݓ൬ೆčૅჭĎ ඪૼაඔऌটჷğ2001୍ຉᅚ֥Ϙঘ-᠉غ೦ིႋٚӱҗҵđఃᇏЇওਆ۱ࢳэਈđ၂൞1994୍ࡥֆϘঘ-᠉غ೦ིႋٚӱҗҵཛđؽ൞2001୍ࡥֆϘঘ-᠉غ೦ིႋٚӱކᆴbܙ࠹ٚӱູy= y01hat + e94 + ඔऌটჷі2b aϘঘིႋ൬৻ྟܙ࠹ٚӱҗҵٳ҃ྙ** ୍ದन൬ೆčૅჭĎ ඪૼაඔऌটჷğ Ⴈ2001୍ބ1994୍ࡥֆϘঘ-᠉غ೦ིႋٚӱҗҵཛቔູэਈࣉྛཌྟܙ࠹෮֤җҵbܙ࠹ٚӱູe01=ඔऌটჷі2 ਸ਼၂ٚ૫đᆃোဒ္ิൕϘঘ ᠉غ೦ིႋᆺ൞ࢳൌ࠽߸ੱཌྷؓҵ 17ൌ࠽߸ੱٳ҃җҵൌ࠽߸ੱٳ҃җҵ
ၳބэ֥ၹᆭ၂đਸ਼ຓߎႵఃၹ႕ཙൌ࠽߸ੱbႭఃᆴ֤ᇿၩ֥൞đࣜဒٳ༅ଆߨᆭ҂ಀ֥ၳٚҵ໙ีࠣఃऎุྙіૼđϘঘ ᠉غ೦ིႋᄝ҂൬ೆ؍ऎႵཁᇷҵљđหљᄝࢠ֮൬ೆ؍ࣜ࠶ᄹӉМࣟ༯đႨದन൬ೆսіཌྷؓളӁੱؓϘঘ ᠉غ೦ིႋܱ༢ܙ࠹ࢲݔбࢠЊbᆃཁൕ҂ݓࡅࣜ࠶ሔۊᄪ௹ൌ࠽߸ੱэऎႵࢠ؟҂ಒקྟđࣜ࠶ӮӉࣉೆൌ࠽߸ੱӉ௹ശᆴਢࢸׄऎุൈࡗі္ॖିႵࢠնݓљҵၳb a০ႨൈࡗਙඔऌܴҳϘঘ၂᠉غ೦ིႋ ႮႿളӁੱඔऌॖࠆ֤ྟཋᇅđ০ႨݓљൈࡗਙඔऌܴҳဒϘঘ ᠉غ೦ིႋࡌඪࢳ৯đ҂ഒಯҐႨದन൬ೆቔูູս؇ਈᆷѓbᆃൈॖିҐ౼֥၂ᇕࡥֆॉҰٚمđ൞็࿊၂؍ࢠӉൈ௹ଽࣜ࠶ཌྷؓᄹӉੱࢠۚݓࡅބֹđ๙ݖܴҳఃൌ࠽߸ੱᄝሔۊݖӱᇏऎุіགྷটဒϘঘ-᠉غ೦ིႋb ູՎ็࿊18۱ࣜ࠶ุčರЧa֣ݓaཐۖaຖaྍࡆaݢݓaઔট༆aݓa༆ۢaօચaιغধaمݓaހধa୳ຯaб০ൈaೋൖaႇݓaೋׅĎđᆜܙҩ1950/60୍սၛটૌཌྷؓૅݓದन൬ೆაൌ࠽߸ੱඔऌbෙಖॖၛҐ౼۷ࣈೱ࿊ӱ็࿊ܴҳؓའđಖطᆃུࣜ࠶ุնุႋඋႿᆃ၂ൈ௹ಆ౯ٓຶଽࣜ࠶ሔۊoֻ၂ะؒpӮჴb7Бۡᆃུݓࡅބֹཌྷؓದन൬ೆ26ބൌ࠽߸ੱඔऌbᆃུࣜ࠶ุᄝܴҳ௹षൈཌྷؓૅݓ൬ೆб২ࡥֆनᆴູ25%đ֞௹ଌ2004୍ഈശູ69%Ġൌ࠽߸ੱࡥֆनᆴ௹Ԛູ%đ௹ଌഈശ֞%b 7aۄࣜ࠶ุཌྷؓ൬ೆބཌྷؓࡎ۬эč1950/60-2004Ď ರЧൌ࠽߸ੱა൬ೆሔۊ֣ݓൌ࠽߸ੱა൬ೆሔۊč Ďč Ď 8060ൌ࠽߸ੱൌ࠽߸ੱ ཌྷؓૅݓ൬ೆཌྷؓૅݓ൬ೆ4030 ཐۖൌ࠽߸ੱა൬ೆሔۊຖൌ࠽߸ੱა൬ೆሔۊč Ď120č Ď ൌ࠽߸ੱൌ࠽߸ੱ ཌྷؓૅݓ൬ೆཌྷؓૅݓ൬ೆ 26 ఃᇏ14۱ဢЧՖ1950୍սԚđਸ਼ຓ4۱ٳљषႿ1951a1953a1955ބ1960b 18ൌ࠽߸ੱൌ࠽߸ੱ აૅݓ൬ೆбؓૅݓ൬ೆбੱൌ࠽߸ੱൌ࠽߸ੱ აૅݓ൬ೆбؓૅݓ൬ೆбੱ
ݢݓൌ࠽߸ੱა൬ೆሔۊྍࡆൌ࠽߸ੱა൬ೆሔۊ č Ďč Ď80 ൌ࠽߸ੱཌྷؓૅݓ൬ೆ ൌ࠽߸ੱཌྷؓૅݓ൬ೆ ઔট༆ൌ࠽߸ੱა൬ೆሔۊ ݓൌ࠽߸ੱა൬ೆሔۊč Ďč Ď 6040 20ൌ࠽߸ੱൌ࠽߸ੱ 10ཌྷؓૅݓ൬ೆཌྷؓૅݓ൬ೆ ೋׅൌ࠽߸ੱა൬ೆሔۊ مݓൌ࠽߸ੱა൬ೆሔۊč Ďč Ď ൌ࠽߸ੱൌ࠽߸ੱ30 ཌྷؓૅݓ൬ೆཌྷؓૅݓ൬ೆ б০ൈൌ࠽߸ੱა൬ೆሔۊ ༆ۢൌ࠽߸ੱა൬ೆሔۊč Ďč Ď ൌ࠽߸ੱൌ࠽߸ੱ30ཌྷؓૅݓ൬ೆཌྷؓૅݓ൬ೆ 19ൌ࠽߸ੱൌ࠽߸ੱൌ࠽߸ੱൌ࠽߸ੱ აૅݓ൬ೆбაૅݓ൬ೆбაૅݓ൬ೆбაૅݓ൬ೆбൌ࠽߸ੱൌ࠽߸ੱൌ࠽߸ੱൌ࠽߸ੱ აૅݓ൬ೆбაૅݓ൬ೆбაૅݓ൬ೆбაૅݓ൬ೆб
օચൌ࠽߸ੱა൬ೆሔۊιغধൌ࠽߸ੱა൬ೆሔۊč Ďč Ď ൌ࠽߸ੱ ཌྷؓૅݓ൬ೆ ൌ࠽߸ੱ ཌྷؓૅݓ൬ೆ ހধൌ࠽߸ੱა൬ೆሔۊ୳ຯൌ࠽߸ੱა൬ೆሔۊ č Ďč Ď 120 60ൌ࠽߸ੱൌ࠽߸ੱ ཌྷؓૅݓ൬ೆ30ཌྷؓૅݓ൬ೆ ೋൖൌ࠽߸ੱა൬ೆሔۊႇݓൌ࠽߸ੱა൬ೆሔۊ180č Ďč Ď ൌ࠽߸ੱൌ࠽߸ੱ ཌྷؓૅݓ൬ೆཌྷؓૅݓ൬ೆ ඔऌটჷބඪૼğ ཌྷؓૅݓದन൬ೆ၇ऌ߸ੱᅼෘ෮֤۲ݓૅჭದनGDP࠹ෘbԢຖၛຓ෮ႵඔऌটሱIMF֥IFSඔऌ९bຖ߸ੱߐෘದनૅჭGDP֥1951-1993୍ඔऌটሱuஂغ۬ূڏൗࢸൎ࠹č1750-1993Ďvᇏ໓ϱđ1994-2004୍ඔऌটሱAsian Development BankoKey Indicators 2005pb 1950-2000୍ൌ࠽߸ੱ؇ਈ൞Penn World Tableᇏ۲ݓაૅݓཌྷؓࡎ۬ඔऌĠ2001-2004୍ൌ࠽߸ੱඔऌႨ༯૫ٚمҩෘğ༵০ႨIFSඔऌ९۲ݓCPIၛࠣ۲ݓࠊлؓૅჭၬ߸ੱ࠹ෘ2000-2004୍ൌ࠽߸ੱބ2001-2004୍ൌ࠽߸ੱᄹӉੱđಖުႨᄹӉੱඔऌაPenn Tableඔऌؓࢤđ֤֞ᆜ۱ဢЧ௹ൌ࠽߸ੱඔऌb൞Penn TableીႵБ֣ۡݓ1950-1969୍ཌྷؓࡎ۬đᆃ၂ൈ௹ઔक़ൌ࠽߸ੱ္০ႨIFSᇏઔक़ؓૅჭၬ߸ੱބ֣ݓૅݓCPIඔऌ࠹ෘ֤֞đѩაPenn Tableః୍ٺඔऌؓࢤط֤෮Ⴈਙb ᆃུࣜ࠶ุ൬ೆሔۊაൌ࠽߸ੱܱ༢ॖٳਆো౦ঃb၂ো൞༆КݓࡅބರЧđ၂܋Їও11۱ဢЧݓbૌࠇؽᅞభၘᴮദਙ఼đࠇᄝဢЧܴҳ௹Ԛದन൬ೆఏׄၘࢤ࣍ࠇӑݖૅݓ1/3đఃᅞުؿᅚЧᇉഈ൞ᄝ֒սࣜ࠶ಆ౯߄ߌ༯ 20ൌ࠽߸ੱൌ࠽߸ੱൌ࠽߸ੱ აૅݓ൬ೆбაૅݓ൬ೆбაૅݓ൬ೆбൌ࠽߸ੱൌ࠽߸ੱൌ࠽߸ੱ აૅݓ൬ೆбაૅݓ൬ೆбაૅݓ൬ೆб
ປӮؓૅݓᆃ၂ҕᅶݓ֥ࢠۚ൬ೆࢨ؍ሔۊࣉӱbᆃቆݓࡅ௹Ԛದनཌྷؓ൬ೆࡥֆनᆴູ%đ௹ଌູ%đնุປӮਔሔۊĠൌ࠽߸ੱनᆴՖ%ഈശ֞%đაܓઙ৯ࡎყҩሑொૼཁ෪ཬbؓᆃ11۱ݓࡅഈඍਆ۱эਈࢩ૫ބൈࡗਙඔऌҐႨࡥֆؓඔཌྟଆࣉྛ݂߭ٳ༅đࢲݔཁൕؽᆀթ27ᄝཁᇷ࠹৳༢đದन൬ೆܙ࠹༢ඔູᆃაࢩ૫ඔऌิൕ֥ۚ൬ೆݓࡅ؍Ϙঘ-᠉غ೦ིႋཁᇷࢲݔऎႵ၂ᇁྟb ં൞ࢩ૫ඔऌߎ൞ൈࡗਙඔऌđཁൕࢠۚ൬ೆࢨ؍թᄝཁᇷϘঘ-᠉غ೦ིႋܱ༢đᇗေჰၹႋᄝႿۚ൬ೆࢨ؍Ӊ௹ᄹӉᇶေ၇ौඌࣉ҄ބಆေളӁੱิശđᆃ၂ݖӱсಖϴෛসളӁੱิശՖطડቀϘঘ-᠉غ೦ིႋ෮ေࠎЧ่ࡱbಖطഈඍ࠹৳༢ᆣऌѩ҂ၩሢཌྷؓದन൬ೆؓൌ࠽߸ੱऎႵֆཟၹݔቔႨbᄝۀܱ༢ഈđൌ࠽߸ੱэّݖট႕ཙཌྷؓ൬ೆඣđၹطഈඍ࠹ᆣऌิൕؽᆀэ൞ଖ۱ֻٚэਈቔႨ֥܋ࢲݔb၇ऌϘঘ-᠉غ೦ིႋࡌඪđ֝ᇁཌྷؓ൬ೆބཌྷؓࡎ۬܋э֥ᇶေၹ൞সളӁੱሔۊbၹطೂݔϜসളӁੱཌྷؓิശुቔൌ࠽ሔۊđϜ߸ੱߐෘ෮֤ದन൬ೆཌྷؓᄹӉुቔၬሔۊđഈඍࢲݔඪૼ၂ݓೂିႵྜྷࣉೆۚ൬ೆሔۊࢨ؍đၬሔۊ߶ႮႿൌ࠽߸ੱശᆴၛۚႿൌ࠽ሔۊ؇طᅚषb ֻؽো൞۱ࣜ࠶ᄹӉࢠॹ֥ؿᅚᇏݓࡅބֹbඔऌܴҳ௹Ֆ1960୍ष֥ཐۖބྍࡆ௹Ԛཌྷؓૅݓದन൬ೆٳљູ15%ބ17%đ1950୍սԚष֥۱ࣜ࠶ุ௹Ԛದन൬ೆ҂֞10%bࣜݖնჿ϶۱ൗࡀሔۊđིࠛቋݺ֥ཐۖބྍࡆཌྷؓૅݓದन൬ೆ2004୍ղ֞60%ቐႷđၘնุղ֞ؿղݓࡅඣĠݢݓބຖದनཌྷؓૅݓ൬ೆ௹ଌٳљູ36%ބ34%đؿᅚӮູᇏഈ֩ބۚ൬ೆݓࡅĠઔট༆a༆ۢཌྷؓದन൬ೆ҂֞ૅݓ20%đݓ҂֞10%đնุಯԩႿᇏ֩ބᇏ༯֩൬ೆݓࡅb ૌൌ࠽߸ੱэ္Ⴕࢠնҵၳbඹཬᄝࣜ࠶ۚӮӉൈ௹đཌྷؓ൬ೆაཌྷؓࡎ۬ᆭࡗթᄝૼཁᆞཟ৳༢đೂ1960-2004୍ཌྷؓࡎ۬नᆴՖ55%ഈശ֞%đ࠹ਈٳ༅ࢲݔཌྷؓದन൬ೆაൌ࠽߸ੱᆭࡗྟ༢ඔູđ֮Ⴟۚ൬28ೆݓࡅđಖط္ޓཁᇷbݢݓބຖ1950୍սభުൌྛࣉ१ูսᅞൈ௹đ29ࣜ࠶ᄹӉ؇აުটఏ٦ࢨ؍ཌྷбႵҵएđѩൌ࠽߸ੱնږ༯ࢆđཌྷؓૅݓದन൬ೆஈ߇ѯᇏӯགྷ༯ࢆ൝b༆ۢaઔঘ༆aݓሔۊིࠛ҂ೂתඹཬđൌ࠽߸ੱэҵၳ۷նb༆ۢದनཌྷؓ൬ೆაൌ࠽߸ੱэ৳༢ࣅૡđתૐਆ۱ᇗေݓࡅෙಖᄝದन൬ೆॹሔۊࢨ؍ൌ࠽߸ੱ္Ⴕૼཁิശđ൞ᆜ۱ൈ௹ّطႵ෮༯ࢆbᆃུܴҳཁൕđෙಖࣜ࠶ᄹӉݖӱቋᇔ߶֝ᇁཌྷؓࡎ۬ิശđಖط҂ࣜ࠶ุࣉೆൌ࠽߸ੱഈശ෮ؓႋ֥ཌྷؓࡎ۬ਢࢸඣթᄝࢠն҂ಒקྟđླေ๙ݖ۱σ࣮ࡆၛॉҳđѩࣜ࠶ሔۊկᅼॖିϴෛཌྷؓࡎ۬э൝ࢨ؍ྟሇb 27 ҐႨofixed effectspଆ֥ܙ࠹ٚӱູLog RER = + log YđఃᇏRERູൌ࠽߸ੱđYູཌྷ2ؓದन൬ೆđದन൬ೆэਈބބࢩएཛܙ࠹༢ඔ֥tᆴٳљູބđR=đn=593b 28 ҐႨofixed effectspଆ֥ܙ࠹ٚӱູLog RER= + YđఃᇏRERູൌ࠽߸ੱđYູཌྷؓದ2न൬ೆđದन൬ೆэਈބބࢩएཛܙ࠹༢ඔ֥tᆴٳљູބđR=đn=195b 29 ݢݓᄝ1954-60୍ࡗࣜ࠶୍नᄹӉੱູ%đჹჹ֮Ⴟ1960୍ս֞תࣜ࠶າࠏభ֥36୍8%୍नᄹӉ؇Ġຖ1953-60୍ࡗࣜ࠶୍नᄹӉੱູ%đ္֮Ⴟෛު30୍ࣜ࠶ఏ٦ൈ௹୍न%ᄹӉ؇čҕڃ2006ؓႵܱࣜ࠶ุھൈ௹ࣜ࠶ᄹӉੱ֥ษંĎb 21
aሹࢲބં ০Ⴈਆ҆সളӁੱҵၳaস৯ݓଽॴ҆ੀބݓ࠽ۯ֩ӈܿٳ༅ࡌഡđϘঘ-᠉غ೦ིႋ၂ٚ૫ࢳ౫ݓაڶݓࡎ۬ඣթᄝ༢ҵၳđؓܓઙ৯ࡎิԛંᇂၐࠇྩᆞĠਸ਼၂ٚ૫ؓࣜ࠶ሔۊაൌ࠽߸ੱሼ൝ܱ༢ิԛҩđູܴҳࣜ࠶൬৻ݖӱᇏൌ࠽߸ੱဆэ݅ࠖิ܂၂۱ં൪࢘bႮႿݓࣜ࠶ᆞᄝॹӮӉބሔۊđᆃ၂ંܴؓҳ࣮ದлൌ࠽߸ੱऎႵమᄝಪ്ބᆟҦၩၬb ٳ༅આࠠෙྃॖࠌđᆃ၂ંࢳնٓຶࣜ࠶གྷའି৯ೂޅĤЧ໓ᄝࢺകϘঘ-᠉غ೦ིႋิԛМࣟބઆࠠࢲܒࠎԤഈđҧᇗՖٚ૫ॉҳఃࣜဒᆣऌb၂൞ࡥษં؇ਈϘঘ-᠉غ೦ིႋэਈ֥࠹ඔऌđѩࢺകၛສႵܱൌᆣဒ࣮֥ᇶေනਫ਼ބٚمbؽ൞০Ⴈದन൬ೆބൌ࠽߸ੱ؟ݓࢩ૫ඔऌđܴҳϘঘ-᠉غ೦ིႋ֥ࣜဒࢳ৯đॉҳϘঘ-᠉غ೦ིႋܱ༢ؓ൬ೆ؍ૹۋྟބӉ௹൬৻ྟ໙ีb൞ܴҳ1950/60୍ၛট҆ٳॹሔۊࣜ࠶ุ֥ൈࡗਙඔऌđษંϘঘ-᠉غ೦ིႋᄝݓљࣜ࠶ӮӉݖӱᇏ҂োіགྷބჰၹb ؓϘঘ-᠉غ೦ིႋࡌඪࢳି৯նุॖิԛਆׄ؎b၂ٚ૫թᄝཌྷ఼֒ࣜဒᆣऌđඪૼᆃ၂ંࡌഡܼؓٗࣜ࠶གྷའऎႵཌྷ఼֒ࢳି৯bᄝ؟ݓࢩ૫ඔऌӆކđൌ࠽߸ੱაসളӁੱᆭࡗթᄝაંҩ၂ᇁ֥ཁᇷ࠹ᆣऌĠᄝݓљൈࡗਙඔऌӆކđ္ିܴҳ֞ྸ؟ࣜ࠶ሔۊϴෛൌ࠽߸ੱཌྷႋശᆴ֥གྷའbಖطࣜဒᆣऌ္ཁൕԛંࡌഡ֥अཋྟb০Ⴈࢩ૫ඔऌܙ࠹Ϙঘ-᠉غ೦ིႋߨᆭ҂ಀ֥ၳٚҵ໙ีđݓљൈࡗਙඔऌཁൕᆃ၂ིႋ֥ҵၳྟіགྷđิൕᆃ၂ંႵིྟܴؓҳؓའ෮ԩ൬ೆ؍ཌྷ֒ૹۋbؓႿᄝ֮൬ೆമᇀᇏ֩൬ೆ؍ࣜ࠶ॹᄹӉ֥ܴҳؓའđൌ࠽߸ੱэაંყҩሑթᄝࢠնொđѩაۚ൬ೆ؍۷ູཁᇷܱ༢ྙӮ༷ૼؓᅶbૌՖэਈ؇ਈ༂ҵބসളӁੱၛຓၹ႕ཙཌྷؓࡎ۬ਆ۱࢘؇ษંਔഈඍགྷའჰၹb Ч໓ܴҳษંऎႵ؟ٚ૫ఓൕၩၬb൮༵ႵᇹႿࢳܓઙ৯ࡎބϘঘ-᠉غ೦ིႋᆃਆ۱ંࡌඪᆭࡗࣩᆚྟބҀྟѩթ֥ܱ༢bܓઙ৯ࡎಪູᄝनޙၩၬഈਆݓࡎཌྷ֩đϘঘ-᠉غ೦ིႋࡌഡਆݓসളӁੱҵၳ൞႕ཙनޙၩၬഈਆݓཌྷؓࡎ֥၂۱ࠎЧၹb۲ݓসളӁੱაཌྷؓࡎ۬ҵၳᆭࡗᆜุྟཁᇷ৳༢đᆦӻϘঘ-᠉غ೦ིႋࡌඪؓܓઙ৯ࡎં֥็ᅞބྩᆞbಖطࠧь၇ऌϘঘ-᠉غ೦ིႋٳ༅આࠠđೂݔਆݓࣜ࠶ؿᅚඣބসളӁੱնᇁཌྷđཌྷؓࡎބ߸ੱ္߶նุ൬৻֞ܓઙ৯ࡎყҩሑĠၹطೂݔϜ۲ݓದन൬ೆࠎЧ൬৻ुቔ၂ᇕห൹ၩၬ֥oनޙሑpđܓઙ৯ࡎᇀഒᄝᆃ၂Мࣟ༯ಯऎႵ၂ᇕनޙ߸ੱંݣၬđѩაϘঘ-᠉غ೦ིႋऎႵ࡙ಸྟb္ࣼ൞ඪđࣜဒᆣऌؓഈඍਆ۱ંิ܂ਔࣩᆚྟބҀྟਆᇕࢳٚൔğՖ࣮ࣜ࠶ؿᅚݖӱुؽᆀऎႵࣩᆚྟđܴؓҳປӮ൬৻ުਆݓࡎܱ༢ुؽᆀႻऎႵҀྟb ఃՑႵᇹႿૌࣉ၂ܴ҄ҳනॉ၂ݓࣜ࠶ӮӉݖӱᇏൌ࠽ބၬሔۊᆭࡗܱ༢bϜؿᅚᇏݓࡅসളӁੱཌྷؓิശुቔൌ࠽ሔۊބ൬৻đϜ߸ੱߐෘ 22
30ದन൬ೆཌྷؓᄹӉुቔၬሔۊބ൬৻đؓਆᇕሔۊ݅ࠖ҂ቆކࠣఃэܿੰಪ്đܒӮܴҳࣜ࠶ӮӉ֥၂۱ᇗေ൪࢘bЧ໓ܴҳิൕᆃ၂ቆކॖିԛགྷᇕ౦ঃb၂൞ؿᅚᇏݓࡅೂൌྛࣉ१ูսބۚܙၬ߸ੱ֥ଽཟؿᅚᅞđႵॖିᄝ၂קൈ௹ದູิശཌྷؓࡎ۬ѩஊളၬ൬৻ࢠݺіགྷbಖطᆃোؿᅚᅞაসളӁੱӻ࿃ॹิശଽᄝ҂࡙ಸྟđथקਔၬሔۊቋᇔ߶ߏa๔ᇌമᇀሇbؽ൞൧ӆ߄ބؓຓष٢౼ཟุ֥ᇅބᆟҦטᆜđ၂ϮႵᇹႿิശসളӁੱၹطࡆॹൌ࠽൬৻đಖطڿ۪ष٢ᄪ௹ࢨ؍ေჰ༵ۚܙ߸ੱ๙ݖъᆴཟࠎЧ૫݂߭ѩ֝ᇁཌྷؓࡎ۬༯ࢆđՖطႵॖିၬބൌ࠽൬৻ࣉӱᆭࡗ֥؇മᇀٚཟԛགྷࢨ؍ྟொđԛགྷসളӁੱބЧлޙਈൌ࠽൬ೆࢠॹᄹӉა߸ੱߐෘದन൬ೆᄹӉޓતമᇀ๔ᇌ҂భؽᆀѩթ֥౦ঃb൞ೂݔ၂ݓᄝࠗৣႵุིᇅބष٢ߌ༯ӻ࿃ӮӉđসളӁੱሔۊቋᇔ߶๙ݖϘঘ-᠉غ೦ིႋЧлൌ࠽߸ੱശᆴđՖطࣜ࠶ӮӉࣉೆၬ൬৻؇ӑݖൌ࠽൬৻֥ࢨ؍b ᄜՑႵᇹႿૌϜϘঘ-᠉غ೦ིႋቔູൌᆣࢳંაൌ࠽߸ੱܵܿٓંႵࠏࢲކఏটࡆၛࢳbቔູൌᆣྟࢳંđϘঘ-᠉غ೦ིႋࡌඪಪູđসളӁੱཌྷؓሔۊקၬ֥ൌ࠽൬৻߶थקཌྷؓࡎ۬ඣэđѩ๙ݖൌุࣜ࠶ࢠॹᄹӉބൌ࠽߸ੱิശਆᇗࠏᇅđथקၬ൬৻ࣉӱބ؇bಖطᆃ၂ࣉӱᇏཌྷؓࡎ۬ࠇൌ࠽߸ੱၹѩ٤ປಆФބཨࠞb္ࣼ൞ඪđऎႵܿٓݣၬ֥෮໌ൌ࠽߸ੱܵაൌᆣݣၬ֥Ϙঘ-ଥغ೦ིႋऎႵଽᄝ৳༢bೂݔ๙ݖۄყᆟҦದູۚܙൌ࠽߸ੱѩົӻ၂۱ྴ֥ۚཌྷؓࡎ۬đЧദ߶ٞθൌุࣜ࠶ӮӉѩ҂০ႿഈඍϘঘ-᠉غ೦ࣉӱඨ০ᅚषbਸ਼၂ٚ૫đೂݔᄝসളӁੱӻ࿃ॹᄹӉൈ௹đಯ০Ⴈ఼ۄყ൭؍ದູ֮ܙൌ࠽߸ੱđ္߶ၹູຓ҆ാޙቔႨطٞθϘঘ-᠉غ೦ིႋࣉӱඨ০ᅚषb ቋު߭֞ܙϘঘ ᠉غ೦ིႋ࣮ؓದл߸ੱ֥གྷൌၩၬ໙ีbᄝӁଽٳ۽ຉᅚധ߄֥ࣜ࠶ಆ౯߄նߌ༯đᇏݓࣜ࠶ष٢ӮӉა֒սఃݓࡅބֹ܋ཚଖུຓཟؿᅚ֥ӮۿࣜဒĠಖطႮႿᇏݓᄝࣜ࠶ܿଆaൎఏׄaֹჸ໊ބࣜ࠶ఏ٦ൈ௹ݓ࠽ྙ൝֩ٚ૫ᇭ؟หྟđࣜ࠶ӮӉࣉӱႻсಖऎႵധख़֥ݓ౦หᆘbᇏݓࣜ࠶ष٢ӮӉ֡ਫ਼थקਔದл߸ੱဆэ߶૫ਢ۷؟็ᅞྟ໙ีđླေૌྟܴҳaٳ༅aࢳބႋؓbϘঘ ᠉غ೦ིႋࡌඪၛఃࡥૼౢ༉֥ંઆࠠބ҂֥ࣜဒіགྷđ࣮ؓದлൌ࠽߸ੱऎႵᇗေಪ്ࢹၩၬbაᆃ၂ѓሙં֥ٚمંཌྷ၂ᇁđૌႋ֒ϜসളӁੱཌྷؓሔۊቔູܴҳٳ༅ದл߸ੱ؛ᄎ֥ࠎЧ൪࢘bᄝऎุ࣮ݖӱᇏđေࡆ఼ؓݓসളӁੱa۽ሧaݓ࠽൬ᆦэܱ֩эਈ֥ᆰࢤ؇ਈđࡨഒཌྷܱэਈ؇ਈ༂ҵؓٳ༅ݖӱջট֥ڵ૫႕ཙĠေຉॺࢳϘঘ ᠉غ೦ིႋંࢲܒđ၇ऌݓ࠽൬ᆦޙჿඏ่ࡱđၬ߸ੱэଽള߄ѩܒӮൌ࠽߸ੱטᆜ֥၂۱ࣥĠߎေหљᇗ൪ݓࣜ࠶նݓܿଆބุᇅሇ֩ห൹ݓ౦ၹ႕ཙđх૧ࡥֆสႨѓሙଆॖିջট֥ಪ്ொb ႄႨ໓ང Balassa, Bela (1964): “The Purchasing-Power Parity Doctrine: A Reappraisal”, The Journal of Political Economy, Vol. 72, No. 6 (Dec., 1964), pp. 584-596. 30 ᆃؓၬ൬৻֥קၬđაૐေӮჴݓ๙ࠊளᅮaҍᆟԅሳ֩ޡܴࣜ࠶ᆷѓсྶ॥ᇅᄝ၂קඔਈٓຶଽ֥ၬ൬৻ۀ҂b 23
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