뷰죚짮뮯폫뷰죚캣믺횮맘쾵샭싛쫶움 헅뚫쿩 믆 뷠 햪튪ꎺ뷰죚짮뮯샭싛ퟔ20쫀볍70쓪듺놻쳡돶틔살ꎬ랢햹훐맺볒돶쿖쇋튻듎뷰죚ퟔ평뮯뗄룟뎱ꎬ폫듋춬쪱ꎬ뷰죚캣믺튲듋웰뇋럼ꆣ퓚훘탂죏쪶뫍첽쳖뷰죚ퟔ평뮯맽돌훐ꎬ죋쏇뾪쪼틢쪶떽쇋ퟔ평뮯듸살뗄룷훖뷰죚럧쿕ꎬ탎돉쇋뷰죚든죵탔뗈튻쾵쇐샭싛ꆣ룹뻝헢킩샭싛ꎬ컒쏇죏쪶떽튻맺늻뷶튪쇋뷢ꆰ뷰죚ퟔ평뮯ꆱꎬ룼튪쇋뷢뷸탐ퟔ평뮯뗄쪵쪩쯹펦뻟놸뗄쳵볾뫍쪵쪩뗄늽훨ꆣ놾컄훷튪쫇뛔ퟔ평뮯샭싛쳡돶틔살뗄튻쾵쇐샭싛뷸탐ퟛ뫏탔뗄맩쓉뫍움쫶ꆣ 맘볼듊ꎺ뷰죚짮뮯; 뷰죚든죵탔; 뷰죚럧쿕; 뷰죚캣믺 훐춼럖샠램ꎺF830 컄쿗쪶뇰싫ꎺA 튻ꆢ뷰죚짮뮯샭싛벰웤랢햹 ꎨ튻ꎩ싳뷰얩뫍키뗄뷰죚짮뮯샭싛 1960쓪ꎬ룱샻뫍키뗄ꆶ뷰죚샭싛훐뗄믵뇒ꆷꎬ뛔뷰죚쳥쾵훐뗄믵뇒릦쓜ꆢ믵뇒헾닟뫍믵뇒뿘훆ꆢ뷰죚폫뺭볃퓶뎤뗄맘쾵뗈ퟷ돶쇋늻춬폚뒫춳맛뗣뗄탂뾼달ꆣ20쫀볍70쓪듺ꎬ퓚볌돐뫍랢햹헢룶맛뗣뗄믹뒡횮짏ꎬ싳뷰얩뫍키헫뛔랢햹훐맺볒뗄뷰죚랢햹컊쳢쳡돶쇋뷰죚짮뮯샭싛ꆣ싳뷰얩뫍키죏캪뷰죚톹훆쫇컞쟸뇰뗄ꆰ얤쟺냼삨샻싊뫍믣싊뗄뷰죚볛룱ꆱꆪꆪ붵뗍ꆰ쪵볊퓶뎤싊벴뷰죚쳥쾵쿠뛔폚럇뷰죚늿쏅뗄쪵볊맦쒣ꎬퟜ쳥짏ꎬ헢훖헾닟ퟨ낭쇋랢햹훐맺볒뗄뺭볃랢햹뷸돌ꆱꎨ키ꎬ1973ꎩꆣ 룹뻝Fryꎨ1997ꎩ뗄ퟜ뷡ꎬ싳뷰얩-키쒣탍뗄뺫쯨쫇ꎺꎨ1ꎩ튻룶뒢탮몯쫽ꎬ폫듦뿮쪵볊샻싊벰닺돶쪵볊퓶뎤싊헽쿠맘ꎻꎨ2ꎩ튻룶춶몯쫽ꎬ폫쪵볊듻뿮샻싊뢺쿠맘ꎬ뛸폫닺돶쪵볊퓶뎤싊헽쿠맘ꎻꎨ3ꎩ튻룶맙랽뗄쏻틥샻싊ꎬ쪹뗃쪵볊샻싊뗍폚쫐뎡뻹뫢샻싊ꎻꎨ4ꎩ컞킧싊뗄탅듻럇볛룱럖엤싳뷰얩-키쒣탍뗄믹놾튪쯘쫇ꎺꎨ1ꎩ폫쪵볊듦뿮샻싊벰쪵볊닺돶퓶뎤싊춬랽쿲뇤뮯뗄뒢탮몯쫽ꎺꎨ2ꎩ폫폐킧쪵볊듻뿮샻싊랴쿲뇤뚯ꆢ떫폫퓶뎤싊춬쿲뇤뚯뗄춶몯쫽ꎺꎨ3ꎩ쪹쪵볊샻싊뗍폚뻹뫢쮮욽뗄맜훆만뚨쏻틥샻싊ꎻꎨ4ꎩ뿉듻뷰컞킧싊럇볛룱엤룸ꆣ ꎨ뛾ꎩ싳뷰얩뫍키뗄뷰죚짮뮯샭싛뗄랢햹 키뫍싳뷰얩뗄쒣탍쫇뺲첬쒣탍ꎬ웤틲쯘맽폚볲떥ꎬ듓20쫀볍70쓪듺쒩떽80쓪듺튻킩뺭볃톧볒뛔룃쒣탍뷸탐쇋삩햹벰쪵횤퇐뺿ꆣ 1.뾨웕-십컷즭샭싛ꆣ냍즣쳘ꆤ뾨웕(Basant K· Kapur,1992)폫쳆쓉뗂ꆤ십컷즭(Donald Jꆤ Mathieson,1980)퓚싳뷰얩뫍키뗄샭싛믹뒡횮짏ꎬ뛔랢햹훐맺볒뗄믵뇒뷰죚ꆢ뺭볃퓶뎤벰뺭볃컈뚨횮볤뗄맘쾵뷸탐쇋쾵춳뗄퇐뺿뫍닻쫶ꆣ쯻쏇죏캪퓚샍뚯솦쪣폠뗄랢햹뺭볃훐ꎬ펰쿬뺭볃퓶뎤뗄훷튪틲쯘쫇놾뗄쫽솿ꎬ뷰죚훐뷩뛔뺭볃뗄펰쿬춨맽쳡릩놾쪵쿖ꆣ 2ꎮ볓뛻뇈쮹뗄뷰죚랢햹쒣탍ꆣ볓뛻뇈쮹폚 1977 쓪랢뇭ꆶ잷랢듯맺볒뗄뷰죚훐뷩폫뺭볃퓶뎤ꎺ튻훖샭싛뗄첽쳖ꆷ튻컄ꎬ퓚뷓쫜싳뷰얩믹놾샭싛폫헾닟훷헅뗄믹뒡짏ꎬ폃튻훖ꆰ솽늿쏅쒣탍ꆱꎨTwo-Sector Modelꎩ탞헽뫍늹돤쇋싳뷰얩뗄ꆰ튻늿쏅쒣탍ꆱꎨOne-Sector Modelꎩꆣ볓뛻뇈쮹볙짨헻룶뺭볃평솽늿쏅ퟩ돉ꎬ늿쏅ꋱ쫇실뫳늿쏅ꎨ킧싊뗍쿂늿쏅ꎩꎬ늿쏅ꋲ쫇쿖듺늿쏅ꎨ벼쫵쿈뷸늿쏅ꎩꆣ늿쏅ꋱ훷튪춨맽쓚늿돯뷸탐죚ꎬ늿쏅ꋲ퓚틸탐믱뗃죚ꆣ볓뛻뇈쮹죏캪ꎬ뛔랢햹훐맺볒뛸퇔ꎬ뷰죚듙뷸뺭볃퓶뎤뗄훘튪믺훆퓚폚룄뷸뷰죚훐뷩뗄뒢탮춶엤훃쪹뷰듓뗍쫕틦뗄늿쏅쇷쿲룟쫕틦뗄늿쏅ꎬ듓뛸떼훂헻룶뺭볃퓶뎤싊뗄쿔훸볓쯙ꆣ늿쏅ꋲ쯹쓜믱뗃뗄틸탐듻뿮뗄쫽솿좡뻶폚늿쏅ꋱ뗄뷰죚뒢탮ꎬ뛸늿쏅ꋱ뗄뷰죚뒢탮폖쿠떱돌뛈짏좡뻶폚쪵볊듦뿮샻싊ꎬ틲뛸쳡룟쪵볊듦뿮샻싊뿉틔복짙늿쏅ꋱ뗄뗍킧싊춶춬쪱퓶볓늿쏅ꋲ뗄룟킧싊춶ꎬ퓚짧믡풴튻뚨뗄쳵볾쿂볓쯙헻쳥뺭볃뗄퓶뎤ꆣ 1
3ꎮ뢥삳뗄뷰죚랢햹쒣탍ꆣ폫싳뷰얩뗈죋튻퇹ꎬ뢥삳ꎨFryꎩ죏캪쳡룟쪵볊샻싊뛔뺭볃퓶뎤뻟폐쮫훘킧맻ꆣ뢥삳냑쪱훍틲쯘틽죫웤쒣탍ꎬ듓뛸쓜룼ힼ좷뗘랴펳뒢탮폫춶뗄뇤뮯뛔뺭볃퓶뎤뗄쪵볊펰쿬ꆣ 퓚뢥삳뗄컈첬쒣탍훐ꎬ뢥삳죏캪퓚랢햹훐맺볒뻶뚨뺭볃퓶뎤뗄춶맦쒣폫킧싊쫜믵뇒뷰죚틲쯘뗄펰쿬ꆣ춶맦쒣좡뻶폚뒢탮듳킡ꎬ맺쓚뒢탮폖평뎤웚뺭볃퓶뎤싊ꆢ맺췢뒢탮싊ꆢ쪵볊듦뿮샻싊ꆢ풤웚쪵볊춶쫕틦싊벰짏쓪맺쓚뒢탮싊뻶뚨ꎬ웤훐쪵볊듦뿮샻싊쫇맘볼틲쯘ꆣ쪵볊듦뿮샻싊춬퇹튲쫇춶킧싊뗄뻶뚨틲쯘ꎬ틲듋ꎬ쳡룟쪵볊샻싊뿉틔삩듳춶맦쒣ꎬ쳡룟춶욽뻹킧싊ꆣ ꎨ죽ꎩ뗚뛾듺뷰죚ퟔ평뮯쒣탍 뷸죫20쫀볍90쓪듺ꎬ돶쿖쇋뷰죚ퟔ평뮯폫쓚짺뺭볃퓶뎤벰쓚짺뷰죚믺릹죚뫏뗄뗚뛾듺뷰죚ퟔ평뮯쒣탍ꆣ폫뗚튻듺뷰죚톹훆쒣탍늻춬ꎬ뗚뛾듺뷰죚ퟔ평뮯쒣탍쎻폐냑뷰죚훐뷩뾴ퟷ쿫떱좻뗄믲쫇볲떥뗄뻶뚨탔쿮쒿ꎬ뛸쫇냑뷰죚훐뷩쟥컺뗄쒣탍뮯ꆣ Valerie R. BencivengaꎬBruce D. Smith (1992)냑Diamand-Dybvigꎨ1983ꎩ뷰죚훐뷩쒣탍폫McKinnon 뫍Mathieson(1981)틔벰Courakis(1987)뗄ꆰퟮ폅뷰죚톹훆쮮욽ꆱ쒣탍뷡뫏ꎬ죏캪뷰죚ퟔ평뮯벰뷰죚훐뷩뗄랢햹쓜듙뷸뺭볃퓶뎤ꆣDiamand뫍Dybvig 1983쓪릹붨뗄쒣탍맘힢틸탐퓚풴엤훃맽돌훐쳡릩쇷뚯탔뗄ퟷ폃ꎬ쿪쾸쮵쏷쇋헾뢮헾닟ꆢ틸탐쳥쾵뫍뺭볃쳥훐웤쯻늿럖횮볤뗄뮥뚯ꎬ춨맽튻냣뻹뫢럖컶뗃돶헢킩헾닟뛔컈첬놾듦솿ꆢ닺돶뫍춨믵엲헍뗄펰쿬ꎨDiamand and Dybvigꎬ1983ꎩꆣValerie R. BencivengaꎬBruce D. Smith죏캪뷰죚ퟔ평뮯뿉틔퓶볓놾믽샛ꆢ폅뮯럧쿕럖떣ꎬ듓뛸쳡룟짧믡뢣샻듙뷸뺭볃랢햹ꆣ퓚쯻쏇뗄쒣탍훐ꎬ떱램뚨ힼ놸뷰ퟣ릻룟쪱ꎬꆰ럇헽쪽ꆱ뗄뷰죚늿쏅ꎨ늻붻쓉램뚨ힼ놸뷰ꎩ붫폫ꆰ헽쪽ꆱ뗄뷰죚늿쏅ꎨ붻쓉램뚨ힼ놸뷰ꎩ릲듦ꎬ헢쪱뷸탐뷰죚ퟔ평뮯믡쪹뷰듓ꆰ럇헽쪽ꆱ뗄뷰죚늿쏅쇷쿲ꆰ헽쪽ꆱ뗄뷰죚늿쏅ꎬ폐훺폚춶뗄퓶볓ꎬ평폚럇헽맦뷰죚늿쏅뒢탮ꎭ춶뮯싊룟폚헽쪽뷰죚늿쏅뒢탮ꎭ춶뮯싊ꎬ헢훖뷰죚ퟔ평뮯늢럇엲헍탔뗄ꎻ춬쪱뷰죚훐뷩뮹쓜쳡릩룼뫃뗄럧쿕럖떣ꎬ룄뷸짧믡뢣샻ꆣ틲뛸ꎬ뷰죚ퟔ평뮯듓짏쫶솽랽쏦듙뷸쇋뺭볃퓶뎤ꆣ 뗚뛾듺쓚짺뷰죚ퟔ평뮯샭싛뗄훷튪쳘뗣쫇맣틥뗄뺭볃놾듦솿룅쓮늻듦퓚믘놨/쫕틦뗝복ꎬ틲뛸퓶뎤쫇춶뗄헽몯쫽ꆣ뛔폚죎뫎뗄쓚짺퓶뎤쒣탍ꎬ뿉틔퓚펵폐뫍쎻폐틸탐뗄뺭볃쳥횮볤뇈뷏퓶뎤싊ꎺ폫좱랦틸탐뗄쟩뿶쿠뇈ꎬ틸탐복짙쇋헻룶뺭볃쳥뗄쇷뚯탔뒢놸돖폐솿ꎬ복짙쇋짺닺탔놾뗄뇤쿖ꎬ평폚짺닺뗄췢늿탔ꎬ퓚훐뷩늿쏅믮풾뗄뺭볃쳥훐폐룼룟뗄뻹뫢퓶뎤싊ꆣ 뷼벸쓪뗄뷰죚ퟔ평뮯샭싛뗄탂뷸햹훷튪뇭쿖퓚솽랽쏦ꎺ튻쫇뛔뷰죚ퟔ평뮯뗄샭뷢룼볓좫쏦ꎬ잿뗷듓ퟜ쳥짏샭뷢뷰죚ퟔ평뮯ꎻ뛾쫇듓캢맛뷇뛈퇐뺿뷰죚ퟔ평뮯킧펦ꎬ잿뗷뷰죚ퟔ평뮯뛔룶죋뫍웳튵뗄펰쿬ꆣ 뛾ꆢ뷰죚럧쿕듦퓚폚뷰죚짮뮯맽돌횮훐 20쫀볍80쓪듺틔뫳ꎬ튻킩톧헟뾪쪼퇐뺿뷰죚짮뮯믲뷰죚ퟔ평뮯횮훐뗄럧쿕컊쳢ꆣퟮ퓧뾪쪼뷰죚짮뮯훐뗄뷰죚럧쿕퇐뺿뗄쫇뗏퇇쮹-퇇샺몼뗂싞ꎨDiaz-Alejandroꎬ1985ꎩꎬ쯻퓚ꆶ퓙볻ꎬ뷰죚틖훆뫍뷰죚뇀삣ꆷꎨGood-bye Financial Repression, Hello Financial Crashꎩ훐퇐뺿20쫀볍70쓪듺훐뫳웚훇샻뗄퓧웚뷰죚ퟔ평뮯뺭샺쪱랢쿖ꎬ훇샻퓧웚뗄뷰죚ퟔ평뮯쪵볹듸살쇋뷰죚캣1믺ꆣ횮뫳뷜삭뗂ꆤ뾨늨샯냂ꎨGerard Caprio Jr.ꎩ뫍떤쓡삭ꆤ뿋쇖뷜뇈뛻ꎨDaniela Klingebielꎬ1996ꎩ퓚뾼달쇋20쫀볍70쓪듺뫳웚틔살뗄29룶틸탐캣믺뫳랢쿖ꎬ평뷰죚ퟔ평뮯듸살뗄뫪맛뺭볃뗄늻컈뚨ꎬ폈웤쫇돶뿚뫍볛룱뗄늻컈뚨틔벰뷰죚볠맜뗄쫨뫶뚼쫇뷰죚캣믺랢짺뗄훘튪풭틲ꆣ퓚듋29샽틸탐캣믺낸샽훐ꎬ폐20샽쫇틲캪쎳틗쳵볾뛱뮯뛸랢짺캣믺ꎻ폐262샽폫틸탐볠맜듫쪩룺늻짏폐맘ꆣ춬쪱ꎬ쯻쏇뮹뾼달쇋69룶맺볒퓚20쫀볍70쓪듺뫳웚떽80쓪듺훐웚랢짺틸탐캣믺뗄풭틲ꆢ랶캧벰췬뻈듫쪩뫍돉놾ꆣ랢쿖틸탐캣믺퓚ퟔ평뮯뫳쪹룷맺릲폐 1 Diaz-Alejandro and Carlos. Good-bye Financial Repression, Hello Financial Crash [J]. Journal of Development Economics,1985,p19. 2 Gerard Caprio Daniela Klingebiel. Bank Luck,Bad Policy,or Bad Banking? [R]. Annual World Bank Conference on Development Economincs,1996. 2
뗄웕뇩쿖쿳ꆣ 뷜샕뗂ꆤ뾨웕샯냂ꎨGerard Caprioꎩ뫍엁쳘샯뿋ꆤ뫂억몺ꎨPatrick Honohanꎩ틔벰쮹뗙룱샻듄ꎨJoseph E. Stiglitzꎬ1999ꎩ퓚ꆶ뷰죚ퟔ평뮯ꎺ뛠풶ꎿ뛠뿬ꎿꆷꎨFinancial LiberalizationꎺHow FarꎿHow Fastꎿꎩ뗄놨룦훐횸돶뷰죚ퟔ평뮯뛔뷰죚늿쏅뫍헻쳥뺭볃퓋탐폐쿔훸뗄펰쿬ꎬ뷰죚ퟔ평뮯뗄돵쪼쳵볾뫍늻춬늽훨믡듸살늻춬뷡맻ꆣ 뿋샯쮹뗙낲ꆤ캬샕ꎨChristian E. Weller,2001ꎩ춨맽뛔1973ꆪ1998쓪볤뗄27룶탂탋쫐뎡뺭볃맺볒뗄뺭볃쫽뻝뗄럖컶ꎬ랢쿖탂탋쫐뎡뺭볃맺볒쪵탐뷰죚ퟔ평뮯뫳룼죝틗퓢쫜믵뇒캣믺뫍틸탐캣믺뗄쾮믷ꆣ쯻춨맽뛔뺭볃쫽뻝뗄떥뇤솿뫍뛠뇤솿볬퇩럖컶ꎬ랢쿖뷰죚ퟔ평뮯뫳ꎬ틸탐캣믺뫍믵뇒캣믺랢짺뗄뿉쓜탔듳듳퓶볓ꆣ폈웤쫇뷰죚ퟔ평뮯뫳ꎬ맺췢놾듳솿뷸죫탂탋쫐뎡뺭볃맺볒톰헒폐샻뿉춼뗄춶믺쿮쒿ꎬ훂쪹뛌웚놾뗄듳솿뷸죫ꎬ떼훂믣싊룟맀믵뇒캣믺랢짺뗄뿉쓜탔퓶듳ꎬ듓뛸듸살틸탐캣믺ꆣ쯦쪱볤췆틆ꎬ믵뇒캣믺복짙ꎬ뛸틸탐캣믺뗄랢짺룅싊퓚늻뛏퓶볓ꆣ3 뗀샻ꎨDooleyꎬ1996ꎩꎬ 낮뗂뮪ꎨEdwardsꎬ2000ꎩ뫍싞컷ꎨRossiꎬ1999ꎩ뗄퇐뺿릲춬횸돶ꎬ뷰죚ퟔ평뮯뗄뢱ퟷ폃룼죝틗퓚훮죧좱랦쫊떱뗄틸탐볠맜훆뛈ꆢ웕뇩탔뗄뢯냜ꆢ램싉뫍훈탲4훊솿뇈뷏닮뗄헢킩훆뛈늻붡좫뗄맺볒랢짺ꆣ 쎷샗ꎨGil Mehrezꎩ뫍뾼럲싼ꎨKaufmannꎬ2000ꎩ퓚ꆶ춸쏷ꆢퟔ평뮯뫍틸탐캣믺ꆷꎨTransparency, Liberalization, and Banking Crisisꎩ뗄놨룦훐뾼달쇋뷰죚ퟔ평뮯뫳탅쾢춸쏷뛈뛔랢짺틸탐캣믺룅싊뗄펰쿬ꆣ퇐뺿뇭쏷ꎬ퓚뷰죚ퟔ평뮯뗄탂뮷뺳샯ꎬ좱랦탅쾢춸쏷뛈믡떼훂춶뗄늻컈뚨ꆢ뷰죚믺릹뗄든죵뫍룼뛠뗄럧쿕놩슶ꆣ 1998쓪맺볊믵뇒믹뷰ퟩ횯퓸뛔튻ퟩ50뛠룶맺볒뫍뗘쟸퓚1975ꆪ1997쓪볤뗄틸탐캣믺뷸탐쇋럖컶에뛏폫쪶뇰ꎬ헢55룶맺볒냼삨22룶릤튵뮯맺볒뫍31룶랢햹훐맺볒뫍뗘쟸ꎬ뛸퓚랢햹훐맺볒훐듳늿럖쫇평탂탋쫐뎡맺볒뫍뗘쟸릹돉뗄ꆣ듓1975ꆪ1997쓪볤랢짺뗄54듎틸탐캣믺살뾴ꎬ뗃돶헢퇹뗄뷡맻ꎺ뗚튻ꎬ듓랢짺캣믺뗄쪵볹살뾴ꎬ뻸듳뛠쫽뗄틸탐캣믺랢짺퓚돩퇹웚볤뗄뫳냫웚ꎬ듓20쫀볍80쓪듺돵뾪쪼뇭쿖돶풽살풽룟뗄랢짺싊ꆣ뗚뛾ꎬ듓랢짺캣믺뗄맺볒살뾴ꎬ퓚돩퇹웚볤ꎬ릤튵뮯맺볒뗄틸탐캣믺뇈탂탋쫐뎡맺볒짙ꎬ뫳헟틸탐캣믺랢짺뗄뇈싊듳풼쫇잰헟뗄솽놶ꆣ뗚죽ꎬ듓탂탋쫐뎡맺볒뫍뗘쟸뗄틸탐캣믺뗄랢짺쓪듺살뾴ꎬ훷튪벯훐퓚20쫀볍805쓪듺뫍90쓪듺ꆣ 퓚웤쯻뗄튻킩쪵횤퇐뺿훐ꎬ뗂쏗뛻뻓쮹ꆪ삥쳘뫍낣샯뿋ꆤ뗙쳘룇웦뛔좫쟲53룶맺볒퓚1980ꆪ1995쓪볤뷰죚캣믺폫뷰죚ퟔ평뮯쿠맘탔뗄럖컶훐뗃돶ꎺ쪵쪩뷰죚ퟔ평뮯뗄맺볒룼죝틗6랢짺틸탐캣믺뗄뷡싛ꆣ 뷼쓪살ꎬ쯦ퟅ늩?싛뫍탅쾢뺭볃톧뗈캢맛뺭볃톧뗄ퟮ탂뷸햹ꎬ뺭볃톧볒쏇뛔뷰죚쫐뎡뗄캢맛탐캪믹뒡폐쇋룼캪짮뿌뗄샭뷢ꎬ뷰죚쳥쾵럧쿕샭싛믱뗃쇋훘듳뷸햹ꆣ틔쮹뗙룱샕ꎨStiglerꎩ캪듺뇭뗄탅쾢뺭볃톧엉폃폐쿞샭탔폫늻췪좫탅쾢샭싛뷏뫃뗘뷢쫍쇋뷰죚캣믺뗄닺짺ꆣ탅쾢뗄늻뛔돆탔붫떼훂뷰죚훐뷩믺릹듦퓚웕뇩뗄쓦쿲톡퓱뫍뗀뗂럧쿕ꎬ볓횮폐쿞샭탔뗄캢맛훷쳥뛔뷰죚닺뗄럇췪좫샭탔뗄톡퓱ힷ훰폫춶믺ꎬ룼볓훘쇋뷰죚닺뗄볛룱늨뚯ꆣ헢솽랽쏦쿠뮥펰쿬ꎬ쪹뗃뷰죚럧쿕룼죝틗퇝뇤캪뷰죚캣믺ꆣ쏗쪲뷰ꎨF. Mishkin,1991ꎩ듓헢튻뷇뛈뛔쿖듺뷰죚쳥쾵캣믺뷸탐쇋?쫍ꎺ쯹캽뷰죚캣믺뻍쫇펡쓡쿮톡퓱뫍뗀뗂럧쿕컊쳢뇤뗃첫퇏훘ꎬ틔훁폚뷰죚쫐뎡늻쓜릻폐킧뗘붫뷰틽떼떽쓇킩뻟폐ퟮ룟킧싊뗄춶쿮쒿ꎬ뛸떼훂뗄뷰죚쫐뎡뇀삣ꆣ 놾훊짏살쮵ꎬ뷰죚ퟔ평뮯쫇뷰죚믺릹듓쫂풭살늻뫜쫬쾤뗄룟럧쿕튵컱ꎻ뷰죚뒴탂퓚뷰죚믺 3 Christian . Financial Crises After Financial Liberalization:Exceptional Circumstances or Structural Weakness? [J]. The Journal of Development Studies,,,October,2001,-127. 4 Dooley Michael. A Survey of Academic Literature on Controls over International Capital Transactions [R]. IMF Staff, Paper 43, 2000 ; Edwards,Sebastian. Capital Flows and Economic Performance [D]. Unpublished Paper,UCLA, 2000;Rossi Marco. Financial Fragility and Economic Performance in Developing Countries:Do Capital Controls,Prudential Regulation and Supervision Matter? [R]. IMF Working Paper WP/99/66,1999. 5헅쟠쯉뗈틫. 틸탐캣믺뗄럀랶ꎺ뷼웚좫쟲틸탐떹뇕럧뎱뗄뷌통[M]. 놱뺩ꎺ훐맺닆헾뺭볃돶냦짧ꎬ1999. 6 Asli Demirguc-Kunt and Enrica Detragiache. Financial Liberalization and Financial Fragility [R]. The World Bank,Working Paper,. 3
릹횮볤뒴퓬돶풶뇈맽좥뢴퓓뗄햮좨햮컱맘쾵ꎻ맺볊뷰죚튻쳥뮯뗄랢햹퓲쫇뗄떥룶맺볒믲쒳룶뗘쟸뗄뷰죚럧쿕톸쯙ꆢ뻧쇒뗄뒫능떽좫쫀뷧뗄랶캧ꎬ뷰죚닺럧쿕뗄믽샛뻟폐쇋좫쟲탔뗄탔훊ꆣ틲듋뿉틔쮵뷰죚ퟔ평뮯볓뻧쇋뷰죚쳥쾵뗄든죵탔ꎬ떫뻶늻쓜쮵뷰죚ퟔ평뮯뻍튻뚨믡듸살뷰죚캣믺ꆣ 볓쓃듳삭췟뛻ꎨLavalꎩ듳톧뗄뿋샍쮹ꆤPꆤ럑쮹뎹ꎨKlaus P. Fischerꎩ뫍십쳘틲ꆤ돂쓉뗂ꎨMartin Chnardꎩ1997쓪튲캪컒쏇쳡릩쇋샭싛폫쪵횤틀뻝ꆣ쯻쏇뗚튻듎붨솢웰맘폚퓚뷰죚톹틖쿂뇘탫튪쪵쪩뷰죚ퟔ평뮯뗄랢햹훐맺볒틸탐튵폫럧쿕퓶볓횮볤뗄샭싛쒣탍ꎬ늢춨맽죴룉랢햹훐맺볒뷰죚ퟔ평뮯뫳뗄쫽뻝뷸탐쪵횤볬퇩ꆣ쯻쏇뗄뷡싛쫇ꎺ뺡맜틸탐튵퓚뷰죚ퟔ평뮯뫳랢짺캣믺뗄뿉쓜탔볓듳ꎬ떫뷰죚ퟔ평뮯뫳뷰죚캣믺뗄퓶볓늢늻럇뎣쏷쿔ꎬ짵훁쫇쒣뫽뗄ꆣ쯻쏇죏캪뷰죚ퟔ평뮯폫틸탐웆닺ꆢ틸탐튵캣믺횮볤뗄맘쾵늢늻뻟폐뇘좻탔ꆣ퓚뷰죚ퟔ평뮯뷸돌훐ꎬ틸탐볠맜ꆢ틸탐튵뗄ퟔ싉폫쓚늿뿘훆ꆢ뷰죚ퟔ평뮯뗄뷸돌폫쮳탲뗈쫇틸탐튵캣믺쓜럱랢짺뗄훷튪뻶뚨틲쯘ꆣ뛸쾵춳뗄퇐뺿뷰죚ퟔ평뮯뗄럧쿕뗄펦룃쫇웰쪼폚뷰죚ퟔ평뮯폫뷰죚든죵탔횮볤뗄쿠맘탔ꆣ 죽ꆢ뷰죚든죵탔쫇뷰죚럧쿕듦퓚횮풴 뷰죚든죵탔샭싛죏캪뷰죚짮뮯횮쯹틔듦퓚럧쿕쫇틲캪뷰죚듦퓚든죵탔뗄쳘헷ꆣ ꎨ튻ꎩ쏷쮹믹뗄ꆰ뷰죚쳥쾵든죵탔볙쮵ꆱ 몣싼ꆤ쏷쮹믹ꎨHyman P. Minskyꎩ냑쏀맺뺭볃톧볒랲늪싗쯹쳡돶뗄뷰죚쳥쾵쓚퓚든죵탔뗄싛쫶샭싛쾵춳뮯ꎬ탎돉쇋ꆰ뷰죚쳥쾵든죵탔뗄볙쮵ꆱꆣ쯻죏캪ꎬ틔짌튵틸탐캪듺뇭뗄탅폃뒴퓬믺릹뫍뷨뿮죋뗄쿠맘쳘탔쫇뷰죚쳥쾵뻟폐쳬좻뗄쓚퓚늻컈뚨탔ꆣ춬쪱ꎬ쯻붫쿖쪵뺭볃훐뗄죚탐캪럖ퟶ죽샠ꎺꎨ1ꎩ뷷짷죚ꆣ뷷짷죚쫇횸죚헟닺뗄쿖뷰쇷죫솿듳폚뎥뮹햮컱뗄쿖뷰쇷솿ꎬ벴쿖뷰쇷죫솿듳폚쇷돶솿ꎻꎨ2ꎩ쎰쿕죚ꆣ쎰쿕죚쫇횸죚헟돯뗃닺쿖뷰쫕죫솿뛌웚뾴짙폚햮컱뛮뗄뎥뮹ꎬ떫죚헟ퟜ뗄쫕죫쇷솿쫇듳폚튪뎥뮹뗄샻쾢뫍놾뷰뗄ꎬ뛸쟒듓뎤웚뾴룃닺뗄풤웚쫕틦듳폚샻쾢횧돶ꎬ헢쪱ꎬ뺭뎣랢짺뗄쫇죚헟퓝쪱뷨탂햮뮹뻉햮ꆣꎨ3ꎩ엓웦죚ꎨPonzi Financeꎩꆣ엓웦죚늻뷶쫇뷼웚뗄쿖뷰쇷죫솿늻쓜싺ퟣ쿖뷰쇷돶솿ꎬ뛸쟒뷼웚쫕죫튲쓑틔늹뎥햮컱뗄샻쾢횧돶ꎬ횻쫇떽쇋쒳튻맽돌뗄ퟮ뫳쪱뗣짏ꎬ닅폐뿉쓜돶쿖쫕죫듳폚햮컱뗄뎥뮹ꆣ 쏷쮹믹죏캪ꎬ짌튵훜웚폕쪹웳튵룟뢺햮뺭펪ꎬ퓚튻룶탂뗄훜웚뾪쪼쪱ꎬ뻸듳뛠쫽뗄웳튵뚼쫴폚뗖늹탍ꎬ튲뻍쫇닉좡뷷짷죚ꆣ뛸쯦ퟅ뺭볃뗄룟헇ꎬ뻍믡돶쿖쫐뎡뮻캻ꎬ벴뷷짷죚훰붥뮻캻폚쎰쿕죚ꎬ쎰쿕죚퓲뮻캻폚엓웦죚ꆣ헢훖죚뷡릹뗄뮻튻랽쏦믡닺짺춨믵엲헍ꎬ쇭튻랽쏦뺭펪늻짆뗄웳튵믡돶쿖떹뇕ꎬ듓뛸믡틽웰쫐뎡돶쿖폇싇ꎬ닺짺뿖믅ꎬퟮ훕떼훂좫쏦캣믺ꆣ쏷쮹믹뛔훜뛸뢴쪼놬랢뗄뷰죚캣믺룸돶쇋죽훖뷢쫍ꎺꎨ1ꎩ듺볊틅췼ꎬ샺쪷짏뗄춴뿠폫폇뮼놻뷱쳬뗄샖맛쯹퇚룇쇋ꎬ탂뗄믱샻믺믡듙돉쇋탅듻닺뗄삩헅ꎻꎨ2ꎩ뺺헹톹솦ꎬ듻뿮죋떣탄죕틦벤쇒뗄뺺헹믡죃쯻쪧좥맋뿍뫍쫐뎡ꎬ듓뛸ퟶ돶늻뷷짷뗄듻뿮뻶닟ꎻꎨ3ꎩ쫐뎡훷쳥뗄럇샭탔ꆣ 쏷쮹믹죏캪ꎬ틲췢늿뮷뺳뗄뇤뮯ꎬ쫐뎡훷쳥뗄춶랽쿲뫍펯샻ힴ뿶튲믡랢짺뇤뮯ꎬ쫐뎡훷쳥폫틸탐뗄햮좨햮컱맘쾵튲쯦횮뇤뮯ꎬ틽웰틸탐탅듻솿뫍탅듻뷡릹뗄뇤뚯ꎬ웤뷡맻쫇틸탐탅듻뷰뗄릩쟳늻욽뫢ꎬ틽랢뷰죚캣믺ꆣ튻떩쿻럑헟탅탄엲헍ꎬ맽뛈춶믺뛸탅듻믺릹폖늻쓜벰쪱룺짏ꎬ뻍뫜죝틗닺짺웕뇩뿖믅ꆣ뻍뎤웚뛸퇔ꎬ뷰죚쾵춳뻟폐살풴폚뷨듻쮫랽탐캪쳘탔뗄쓚퓚늻컈뚨뛸닺짺쇋뷰죚뗄든죵탔ꆣ ꎨ뛾ꎩ틸탐벷뛒싛 듷쏉뗂뫍듷캬룱ꎨDiacmonol Dybvigꎬ1983ꎩ틔벰뫳살뗄뾨웕쇖ꎨCaplinꎬ1994ꎩ뫍삳컷ꎨLeahyꎬ1994ꎩꆢ믹얷ꎨKehoeꎬ1998ꎩ뗈뚼붫뷰죚뗄든죵탔맩뻌폚틸탐헢룶뷰죚믺릹뗄든죵탔ꆣ 쯻쏇죏캪틸탐닺뫍뢺햮쪱볤쫽솿짏뗄늻욥엤ꎬ탅쾢뗄늻뛔돆늻췪좫ꎬ틔벰죋캪틲쯘뫍ꆰ퇲좺탐캪ꆱ뗈쪹틸탐돉캪쳘뇰탩죵뗄뷰죚믺릹ꆣ ꎨ죽ꎩ믵뇒헾닟쪧컳싛 쏀맺믵뇒훷틥톧엉뗄듺뇭죋컯쏗뛻뛙ꆤ뢥샯뗂싼틔벰늼삭쓉뫍쎷뛻퓳뛻ꎨBrunner and 4
Meltzerꎩ뚼붫뷰죚뗄뚯떴룺믵뇒헾닟솪쾵웰살ꎬ죏캪틽웰뷰죚뚯떴뗄ퟯ뿽믶쫗쫇헾뢮늻떱뗄믵뇒헾닟ꆣ 잰헟죏캪ꎬ믵뇒탨쟳쫇튻룶컈뚨뗄몯쫽ꎬ믵뇒쫽솿뻶뚨쇋컯볛뫍닺돶솿ꎬ믵뇒뗄뷴쯵붫믡횱뷓떼훂뺭볃뗄쮥췋뫍뷰죚캣믺ꆣ뫳헟퓲쳡돶믵뇒듦솿퓶쯙폫헢훖퓶쯙뗄틗뇤탔ꎬ떼훂틸탐튵캣믺ꆣ틲캪믵뇒뷴쯵믡웈쪹틸탐돶쫛닺틔놣돖쯹탨뗄뒢놸믵뇒ꎬ닺볛룱쿂붵떼훂샻싊짏짽ꎬ믡캣벰틸탐뗄뎥뢶쓜솦ꎬ듦뿮죋탅탄뻍믡쫜떽듲믷ꆣ틸탐틲쪧좥쇷뚯탔뫍뎥뢶쓜솦뛸떹뇕ꎬ늢쪹믵뇒릩펦뷸튻늽복짙ꎬퟮ훕쪹뗃듳엺틸탐떹뇕뛸틽랢뷰죚캣믺ꆣ ꎨ쯄ꎩꆰ뗀뗂럧쿕ꆱ싛 훸쏻랢햹뺭볃톧볒싳뷰얩폫맾런듳톧뺭볃톧볒욤뛻튻춬첽쳖쇋랢햹훐맺볒뗄듦뿮떣놣폫맽뛈뷨햮횮볤뗄맘쾵ꆣ퇇훞뷰죚럧놩횮뫳ꎬ뿋슳룱싼틔벰웤쯻튻킩뺭볃톧볒튲뚼횸돶쇋뷰죚캣믺폫뗀뗂럧쿕뗄맘쾵ꆣ ퟜ쳥살쮵ꎬ쯻쏇뚼죏캪쫇뷰죚쫐뎡짏뗄솽훖훆뛈폖뷐ퟶ쮫훘놣쿕듸살쇋뗀뗂럧쿕ꎬ듓뛸떼훂뷰죚캣믺ꆣ벴쿔탔놣쿕ꆪꆪ듦뿮놣쿕훆뛈뫍틾탔놣쿕ꆪꆪퟮ뫳듻뿮죋훆뛈ꆣ헢훖쮫놣쿕튻횱뚼퓚벤샸ퟅ듻뿮믺릹좥ힷ훰뎬뛮샻죳ꎬ뫶쫓쿠뛔펦뗄럧쿕ꎬ컞싛쫇퓚뺭볃엊짽웚뮹쫇쮥췋웚ꆣ평폚헢훖풭틲ꎬ뷰죚쫐뎡짏뗀뗂럧쿕랺샄좴춬쪱듦퓚ퟅ좱랦헢훖쮫놣쿕훆뛈뿉쓜믡듸살뷰죚쳥쾵뗄뇀삣ꆣ ꎨ컥ꎩ탩쓢놾엲헍싛 뗂맺뗄쟇쓉떤ꆤ첩쓉놫쒷횸돶ꎬ쫀뷧뺭볃뗄뻞듳뷰죚닆뢻볛횵ꎬ웤탎쪽쫇튻룶떹훃뗄ꆰ뷰ퟖ쯾ꆱꆣ웤뗗닣쫇쪵볊뗄컯훊닺욷ꎻ웤짏쫇짌욷뫍헦쪵뗄럾컱짌튵쎳틗ꎻ퓚웤짏쫐뢴퓓뗄쏻틥뗄펦쫕햮컱ꆢ막욱ꆢ춨믵ꆢ짌욷춨믵뗈뗄뷡릹ꎻퟮ뫳뗄뚥닣쫇퇜짺웚믵틔벰웤쯻뒿듢뗄탩쓢놾ꆣ쿖쪵뺭볃뗄랢햹ꎬ믹놾컯훊뗄맘볼늿쏅뗄죋뻹ퟜ닺돶퓚쿂붵ꎬ떫춬쪱탩쓢놾뗄랢햹좴퓚퓶쯙ꆣ헢훖쪵쳥뺭볃폫탩쓢뺭볃뗄췑뷚쪹뗃헻룶뷰죚쳥쾵뻟폐쓚퓚뗄든죵ꆣ ꎨ쇹ꎩ탅쾢늻뛔돆 탅쾢뺭볃톧샭싛죏캪ꎬ탅쾢늻뛔돆뇘좻떼훂쫐뎡닎폫헟탐캪뗄얤쟺ꎬퟮ춻돶뗄쫇쓦쿲톡퓱폫뗀뗂럧쿕ꆣ탅쾢늻뛔돆퓚뻶뚨뷰죚쫐뎡뫍뷰죚훐뷩믺릹탔훊랽쏦뻟폐쳘쫢뗄훘튪탔ꎺ벴쯼뻶뚨쇋뷰죚쫐뎡뗄룟럧쿕탔벰뷰죚믺릹뗄쓚퓚든죵탔ꆣ ꎨ웟ꎩ뿋죰룱뗄ꆰ낲좫뇟뷧쮵ꆱ 쪵볊짏헢쫇뛔쏷쮹믹쮼쿫뗄쇭튻뷢뛁ꎬ벴뿋죰룱쫇햾퓚틸탐뷇뛈ꎬ틽폃쇋ꆰ낲좫뇟뷧ꆱ헢튻룅쓮ꆣ낲좫뇟뷧뗄ퟷ폃퓚폚쳡릩튻훖놣뮤ꎬ틔럀늻닢쫂볾ꆣ뛔폚듻뿮죋뫍뷨뿮죋살쮵ꎬퟐ쾸퇐뺿풤웚쿖뷰쫕죫쮵쏷쫩뫍볆뮮춶쿮쒿돐억쫩쫇좷뚨쮫랽뚼뿉틔뷓쫜뗄낲좫뇟뷧뗄맘볼튻뮷ꆣ평폚틸탐볒뗄탅듻뻶뚨ퟱ쫘훷쯹캽뗄쒦룹맦퓲ꎨJ. P. Morgan ruleꎩꎬ벴쫇럱듻뿮훷튪뾴뷨뿮죋맽좥뗄탅폃볇슼ꎬ뛸뛔캴살뗄풤웚늢늻쪮럖맘힢ꆣ헢훖ꆰ쿲뫳뾴ꆱ뛸늻ꆰ쿲잰뾴ꆱ뗄쮼쿫ꎬ쪵볊짏쫇볙뚨ꆰ캴살붫쫇맽좥뗄훘뢴ꆱꆣ헢훖듭컳뗄탅듻풭퓲뻶뚨쇋뷰죚믺릹뗄든죵탔ꆣ 쯄ꆢ뷰죚짮뮯훐뷰죚럧쿕뗄훖샠 뷰죚ퟔ평뮯퓚뷢돽뷰죚톹틖ꎬ쳡룟뷰죚쳥쾵킧싊ꎬ듙뷸뺭볃퓶뎤뗄춬쪱ꎬ튲룸쪵쪩뷰죚ퟔ평뮯뗄맺볒듸살쇋튻뚨뗄럧쿕ꎬ헢킩럧쿕ퟮ훕뇭쿖퓚뷰죚쳥쾵뗄늻컈뚨탔믲든죵탔퓶볓ꎬ뷰죚캣믺랢짺뗄욵싊볓뿬ꆣ쓇쎴헟쫇럱뻍틢캶ퟅ뷰죚ퟔ평뮯뻍쫇뷰죚캣믺뗄틽슷죋쓘ꎿ쓑뗀솽헟횮볤헦쿱쫇죋쏇쯹쮵뗃쓇퇹쫇뛔폀늻럖샫뗄싏짺탖뗜ꎿ 뷰죚ퟔ평뮯횱뷓믡펰쿬틸탐뗄탐캪ꎬ튲뻍쫇쮵쓜릻횱뷓볓듳뷰죚믺릹뗄든죵탔ꎬ듓뛸볓듳뷰죚쾵춳뗄든죵탔ꆣ ꎨ튻ꎩ샻싊럧쿕 뎤웚틔살ꎬ샻싊ퟔ평뮯놻떱ퟷ뷰죚ퟔ평뮯뗄뫋탄쓚죝ꆣ샻싊ퟔ평뮯춨뎣놻죏캪쫇샻싊쮮욽횱뷓평쫐뎡릩쟳맘쾵살뻶뚨ꆣ룼횱맛뗃살쮵쫇뾴뷰죚믺릹폐쎻폐뛔샻싊뗄ퟔ훷뻶뚨좨ꆣ튻룶뷏췪짆뗄쫐뎡믺훆뫍폐킧뗄쫐뎡뷡릹쫇샻싊ퟔ평뮯믲샻싊쫐뎡뮯뗄뇘튪쳵볾ꎬ헢튻뗣뛔폚랢햹훐맺볒폌캪훘튪ꆣ뻹뫢샻싊쫇폐뷨듻쫐뎡뗄뷰릩쟳ힴ뿶쯹뻶뚨뗄샻싊ꎬ퓚뻹뫢샻싊쮮욽쿂쫇늻듦퓚뢺샻싊뫍쫜톹틖뗄샻싊뗄ꆣ퓚췪좫뺺헹뗄쳵볾쿂ꎬ샻싊쮮욽뗈폚놾닺돶쮮욽놻죏캪쫇ퟮ 5
폅샻싊ꆣ쪵탐샻싊ퟔ평뮯ꎬ튻냣쫇붫샻싊쮮욽평뢺샻싊믲뗍샻싊쮮욽짽훁헽샻싊뫍뷏룟샻싊쮮욽ꎬ쫇뷰죚ퟔ평뮯뗄돵훔ꎬ튲쫇럻뫏뷰죚ퟔ평뮯샭싛ퟮ돵짨쿫뗄쒿뇪뗄ꆣ 뷰죚ퟔ평뮯뗄쒿뗄쫇춨맽뻹뫢샻싊듙뷸ퟜ쳥뺭볃뗄퓶뎤ꆣ쓜럱랢떽헢튻쒿뗄ꎬ쪵볊샻싊쮮욽폫뺭볃퓶뎤쫇럱뻟폐뷏잿뗄쿠맘탔쫇벫캪훘튪뗄ꆣ듓쒿잰뗄퇐뺿컄쿗살뾴ꎬ샻싊ퟔ평뮯쫇샻싊쮮욽평놻톹틖뗄뢺샻싊짽훁헽샻싊ꎬ퓚뛌웚쓚뛔뺭볃퓶뎤뗄췆뚯ퟷ폃럇뎣쏷쿔ꎬ떫쫇웤ퟷ폃킧맻돊쿖훰붥쿂붵뗄쟷쫆ꆣ듓뎤웚살뾴ꎬ듋낾맽늻죴뛌웚뫃ꎬ떫쫇퓚튻룶쿠뛔뗄훐웚ꎨ뇈죧20쓪ퟳ폒뗄쪱볤ꎩꎬ헽샻싊폫뺭볃퓶뎤뗄쿠맘돌뛈뮹쫇뷏룟뗄ꆣ샻싊ퟔ평뮯듸살쇋듻뿮뗄룼뛠퇹뮯뗄톡퓱틔벰듻뿮ퟢ뷰뗄릫뾪뮯ꆣ쓇쎴샻싊뗄ퟔ평뮯믡듸살쪲쎴뷰죚럧쿕ꎿ 룹뻝럧쿕돖탸쪱볤ꎬ뿉틔붫샻싊ퟔ평뮯뗄럧쿕럖캪뷗뛎탔럧쿕뫍뫣뻃탔럧쿕ꆣ 뷗뛎탔럧쿕쫇횸뗄퓚샻싊럅뾪맜훆뗄돵웚ꎬ평폚샻싊춻좻뗄쫐뎡뮯뗄뇤뚯뛸듸살뗄튻쾵쇐쾵춳럧쿕ꆣ튻냣살쮵샻싊ퟔ평뮯뫳뚼믡뷏맜훆쪱웚뗄샻싊폐쯹짏짽ꎬ뛸샻싊짏짽듸살뗄ퟮ횱뷓뗄펰쿬뻍쫇춶맦쒣뗄쯵복ꎬ쳘뇰쫇뛔폚랢햹훐맺볒뛸퇔ꆣ헢쫇평폚샻싊쳡룟떽놾살뻍뇈뷏뗍뗄쪵볊쫕틦싊횮짏쪱ꎬ뒢탮뗄뇟볊쟣쿲믡쳡룟ꎬ듓뛸복짙춶ꆣ 뷰죚ퟔ평뮯횮잰ꎬ평폚듦퓚샻싊짏뗄쿞훆ꎬ틸탐늻쓜쫕좡뇈뷏룟뗄듻뿮샻싊쪹뗃틸탐폐훖ퟔ좻뗄뻜뻸룟럧쿕듻뿮뗄뚯솦ꆣ뛸떱샻싊짏쿞좡쿻ꎬ틸탐쫜떽샻틦뗄쟽뚯뻍폐뿉쓜쿲룟럧쿕쿮쒿쳡릩듻뿮틔믱좡뷏룟뗄풼뚨쫕틦ꎬ헢퇹럧쿕ퟔ좻퓶볓쇋ꆣ쪵볊짏ꎬ퓚튻룶쫐뎡믺훆뷏캪붡좫ꆢ럧쿕럀랶쳥쾵뷏캪췪놸ꆢ틸탐훷쳥뾹럧쿕쓜솦뷏잿뗄뷰죚쳥쾵훐ꎬ뷰죚ퟔ평뮯쓜릻캪룟럧쿕ꆢ룟쫕틦뗄쿮쒿톰쟳떽뇘튪뗄뷰ꎬ늢쟒쓜릻춨맽돖폐폐킧럖즢뮯뗄춶ퟩ뫏살쯸뚨쿮듻뿮뗄럧쿕ꆣ뿉쫇죧맻좱랦맜샭틸탐듻뿮ퟩ뫏뗄럧쿕뗄쓜솦벴좱랦움맀럧쿕쿮쒿ꆢ볠뚽뷨뿮죋뗄싄풼탐캪뗈랽쏦뗄벼쓜뗄뮰ꎬ쓇쎴뷰죚ퟔ평뮯틔뫳ꎬ쿱럧쿕뷏룟뗄듻뿮쿮쒿쳡릩뗄뷰뻍믡퓶볓틸탐뗄쟥뎥뢺떣ꎬ듓뛸퓚ퟜ쳥짏퓶볓쾵춳탔틸탐캣믺랢짺뗄럧쿕ꆣ 듓뷰죚믺릹뗄뷇뛈살쮵ꎬ샻싊뗄쿔훸쳡룟ꎬ믡춨맽5쳵쟾뗀듓ퟜ쳥짏볓훘짌튵틸탐쳥쾵뗄럧쿕ꎺꋙ쿮쒿짪쟫훐뗄쓦쿲톡퓱탐캪ꎻꋚ럧쿕뎯틸탐뗄벯훐ꎻꋛ뷰살풴짏뗄벤쇒뺺헹ꎻꋜ뎥7햮뢺떣볓훘ꎻꋝ닆헾뢺떣볞퓶뛠ꆣ춨맽헢벸쳵쟾뗀ꎬ샻싊뗄쳡룟럖뇰볓듳쇋틸탐뗄캥풼럧쿕ꎬ뺭펪럧쿕틔벰닙ퟷ럧쿕ꆣ 늢쟒ꎬ퓚샻싊ퟔ평뮯뫳뗄샻싊쳡룟뗄춬쪱ꎬ샻싊뗄늨뚯탔튲쫇톸쯙뗄퓶듳ꆣ쪹뗃풭폐뗄룷훖뫪맛뺭볃뇤솿횮볤뗄컈뚨맘쾵놻웆뮵ꎨ죧믵뇒릩펦솿폫컯볛ꆢ쫕죫폫쿻럑ꆢ뒢탮횮볤뗄맘쾵ꎩꎬ떼훂뫪맛뺭볃헽퓲쓑틔훆뚨뫍쪵쪩ꆣ 뫣뻃탔럧쿕튻냣뻍쫇컒쏇춨뎣쯹횸뗄샻싊럧쿕ꎬ쯼폫샻싊ퟔ평뮯뿉틔쮵쫇죧펰쯦탎ꆣ쯼횸뗄뻍쫇쫐뎡샻싊뗄늻맦퓲뇤뚯쯹듸살뗄튻쟐늻좷뚨탔ꎬ쳘뇰쫇뛔폚뺭펪뷰튵컱뗄뷰죚믺릹살쮵ꆣ쯹틔헢튲쫇샻싊럧쿕돉캪짌튵틸탐맜샭훐쏦쇙뗄쯄듳럧쿕횮튻ꆣ웤훷튪뇭쿖퓚솽룶랽쏦ꎺ튻쫇평폚짌튵틸탐쯹돖폐뗄샻싊쏴룐탔닺뫍뢺햮늻욥엤ꎻ뛾쫇평폚듦듻샻닮뗄늻춬늽뇤뮯ꆣ헢솽뗣뚼믡퇏훘펰쿬짌튵틸탐뗄뺭펪튵벨ꎬ튲춬퇹쫇볓잿뷰죚든죵탔뗄풭틲ꆣ쪵볊짏ꎬ틸탐ퟷ캪뷰죚훐뷩믺릹뗄튻룶훷튪릦쓜뻍쫇냑뛌웚뢺햮ꆰ뮯ꆱ캪뎤웚닺ꎬ헢훖웚쿞짏뗄늻튻훂놾살뻍쫇틸탐뗄쓚퓚든죵탔ꆣ샻싊ퟔ평뮯뫳ꎬ컞맦퓲뗄뇤뚯쪱뗄틸탐쇷뚯탔늻ퟣ뗄쟩탎퓶뛠ꎬ뛸헢훖쇷뚯탔컊쳢튻냣틀삵폚뷰죚쫐뎡뗄춬튵죚ꆣ죴뷰죚쫐뎡뮹캪붨솢웰튻룶췪짆뗄죚쾵춳ꎬ볓짏탅쾢뗄늻췪좫ꎬ퓲뫜폐뿉쓜평폚룶뇰틸탐뗄쇷뚯탔컊쳢떼훂헻룶쾵춳뗄쇷뚯탔캣믺ꆣ ꎨ뛾ꎩ놾쿮쒿뗄뾪럅럧쿕 놾쿮쒿뗄뾪럅벴놾쿮쒿뗄뿉ퟔ평뛒뮻탔쫇뷰죚ퟔ평뮯뗄쇭튻뫋탄쓚죝ꎬ떫쫇놾헋뮧뗄뾪럅쯆뫵튲룺볓듳뷰죚든죵탔폐ퟅ뷴쏜뗄솪쾵ꎬ쳘뇰쫇뛔폚랢햹훐맺볒뛸퇔ꆣ평폚랢햹훐맺볒쎻폐붡좫뗄뷰죚램맦뫍짳짷뗄볠맜쓜솦틔벰췪놸뗄뷰죚쳥쾵ꎬ쪹뗃뷰죚훈탲벫틗뒦폚쪧뿘ힴ첬ꆣ늮뗂샯뿋ꎨBodrikꎬ1998ꎩꆢ쮹뗙룱샻듄ꎨStiglitzꎬ2002ꎩ뗈죋퓚퇐뺿쇋랢햹훐맺볒놾헋뮧ퟔ평뮯뗄럧쿕뫳횸돶ꎬ놾헋뮧ퟔ평뮯늢늻튻뚨믡룸랢햹훐맺볒듸살킧싊ꎬ쿠랴ꎬퟔ평뮯믡틽살듳솿춶믺ꆰ죈잮ꆱ뗄쇷죫ꎬ퓶볓쇋뷰죚캣믺랢짺뗄뿉쓜탔ꎬ뛔놾맺볊춶ꆢ닺돶뫍웤 7 믆뷰샏. 뷰죚ퟔ평뮯폫뷰죚든죵탔. [M]. 놱뺩ꎺ훐맺돇쫐돶냦짧ꎬ2001. 6
8쯻헦쫇뺭볃쎻폐듸살믽벫뗄헽킧펦ꆣ뛸놾쿮쒿뗄뾪럅ꎬ놾퓚맺볊랶캧쓚뗄ퟔ평쇷뚯뛔랢듯맺볒뛸퇔좴횻믡듸살뫃뒦ꆣ쓃쏀맺살뻙룶샽ퟓꎬ뺭볃톧볒싞늮쳘ꆤTꆤ엁샯ꎨ1997ꎩ횸돶ꎺ뷰죚쫐뎡뗄좫쟲뮯뛔쏀솪뒢믵뇒헾닟늻믡닺짺뛠듳뢺쏦펰쿬ꆣ듓풭퓲짏붲ꎬ튻룶맺볒늻쓜춬쪱쪵쪩죽쿮헾닟ꎺꎨ1ꎩퟔ평쇷뚯뗄뿧뺳놾쇷뚯ꎻꎨ2ꎩ만뚨뗄믲쫜맜샭뗄췢믣믣싊ꎻꎨ3ꎩ뛀솢뗄맺쓚믵뇒헾닟ꎬ벴쫜뿘뗄맺쓚샻싊ꆣ퓚듋ꆰ죽뷇탎ꆱ훐ꎬ쏀맺룸폨쇋믣싊ꎬ쪹뗃웤샻싊뗄뗷헻톹솦복쟡쇋뫜뛠ꆣ 놾쿮쒿뾪럅쯹듸살뗄뷡맻쫇ꎬ뷰죚놾믡풽살풽벯훐폚뒦폚횧엤뗘캻뗄랢듯맺볒슢뛏놾벯췅쫖훐ꎬ늢캪짙쫽뻞춷뷰죚믺릹쯹닙ퟝ뿘훆ꆣ평폚랢듯맺볒뗄뺭볃쪵솦풶듳폚랢햹훐맺볒ꎬ헢킩맺볒뗄뷰죚믺릹욾뷨놾짭엓듳뗄뷰맦쒣ꎬ뫜죝틗듸뚯뫍훷퓗맺볊놾뗄쇷쿲ꆣ뛸헢훖쿖쪵쯹룸좫쟲뺭볃듸살뗄횻쓜쫇랢듯맺볒뗄뺭볃샻틦뗃틔쪵쿖ꎬ뛸랢햹훐맺볒쪼훕뒦폚놻뚯뫍럀쫘뗘캻ꎬퟮ훘튪뗄쫇쯼룹놾뮹쎻폐럀쫘뗄쓜솦ꆣ 떱좻ꎬ튲폐볒돖늻춬뾴램ꎬ럑쾣뛻ꎨFischerꎬ1998ꎩ뫍죸쒬쮹ꎨSummersꎬ2000ꎩ죏캪ꎬ놾헋뮧ퟔ평뮯쫇놾듓샻죳믘놨싊뗍뗄맺볒ꎬ뿉틔복짙놾돉놾ꎬ퓶볓춶ꎬ듓뛸퓶볓튻맺9뺭볃닺돶ꆣ 쇭췢ꎬ욤낣뛻ꆤ샭닩뗂ꆤ낢룹억ꎨPierre-Richard Agenorꎬ2001ꎩ듓맺볊뷰죚튻쳥뮯뗄뷇뛈싛횤쇋놾헋뮧뾪럅듸살뗄럧쿕ꆣ쯻죏캪평폚랢햹훐맺볒듦퓚믲쏷믲낵뗄듦뿮놣쿕ꎬ닺맦쒣뷏킡뫍놾돤ퟣ싊늻ퟣ뗄맺쓚틸탐쏦쇙룼뛠뗄뗀뗂럧쿕ꆣ틸탐믡뷸탐쎰쿕뫍뷰죚춶믺ꎬ붫듳솿뗄뷰춶럅떽랿뗘닺뫍횤좯쫐뎡ꆣ퓚럇쎳틗늿쏅춶뗄뗍훊솿쯦ퟅ쪱볤뗄췆틆ퟮ훕믡펰쿬튻맺뺭볃뗄돶뿚쓜솦ꎬ쪹튻맺맺볊쫕횧늻맋욽뫢볓뻧ꆣ듋췢ꎬ놾헋뮧뗄뾪럅듸살듳솿맺췢놾뗄쇷죫ꎬ믡듸살믵뇒삩헅뫍춨믵엲헍뗄톹솦ꎬ믡쪹헦쪵믣싊짏짽듓뛸삩듳뺭뎣헋뮧뗄돠ퟖꆣ퓚뢡뚯믣싊훆뛈쿂ꎬ맺볊쫕횧뗄늻욽뫢믡떼훂믵뇒뗄뇡횵ꎬퟮ훕떼훂맺쓚췢짌욽뗈쿠뛔볛룱뗄훘탂뗷헻틔벰쎳틗쇷뗄ퟔ컒뗷헻ꎻ퓚만뚨믣싊훆뛈쿂ꎬ맺볊쫕횧뗄늻욽뫢틔벰맺쓚닺욷뺺헹솦죵ꎬ믡듲믷엀탐뚢힡믣싊훆뛈뗄횧독솦ꎬ듓뛸틽랢믵뇒캣믺ꎬ퓶볓뷰죚쫐뎡뗄늻컈뚨탔ꆣ ꎨ죽ꎩ뷰죚믺릹ힼ죫ퟔ평뮯뗄럧쿕 뷰죚믺릹ힼ죫뗄ퟔ평뮯춬퇹튲쫇뷰죚ퟔ평뮯뗄훘튪쓚죝ꆣ믺릹ힼ죫ퟔ평냼삨솽룶랽쏦ꎺ튻쫇럅뿭놾맺뷰죚믺릹뾪튵뗄쿞훆ꎻ뛾쫇뛔췢뾪랢맺쓚ꎬ퓊탭췢뷰죚믺릹ힼ죫ꆣ솽룶랽쏦뗄뷡맻뚼쪹틸탐뺺헹뗄볓뻧ꎬ붵뗍쇋틸탐쳘탭볛횵ꆣ 쏗쪲뷰ꎨF. Mishkinꎩꎬ쿄욤싞ꎨCaprioꎩ뫍죸쒬쮹ꎨSummers,1993ꎩꎬ뫕뛻싼ꎨHellmannꎩꎬ쓂뛻뛠뿋ꎨMurdockꎩ뫍쮹뗙룱샻듄ꎨStiglitz,1994ꎩ뗈뺭볃톧볒폖럖뇰듓뷰죚쫐뎡훐뗄탅쾢늻뛔돆벰쓦쿲톡퓱ꆢ뗀뗂럧쿕뗈랽쏦럖컶뫍퇐뺿뷰죚든죵탔컊쳢ꆣ쯻쏇죏캪ꎬ샻싊짏쿞뫍뷸죫쿞훆뒴퓬쇋튻훖ퟢ뷰ꎬ쯼쫇틸탐뗄횴헕뛔돖폐헟살쮵폐ퟅ뫜룟뗄볛횵ꆣ쪧좥헢훖놦맳뗄틸탐횴헕뗄럧쿕벤샸틸탐룼볓컈붡뗄뺭펪ꎬ룼뫃뗄볠뚽쯻쏇쯹듻뿮뗄릫쮾ꎬ늢쟒룼뫃뗄맜샭쯻쏇듻뿮ퟩ뫏뗄럧쿕ꆣ샻싊ퟔ평뮯ꆢ퓊탭럇틸탐뷰죚믺릹듓쫂뒫춳뗄틸탐튵컱믲뷸죫뇚생뗄복짙ꎬ쪹틸탐쳘탭좨볛횵쫜떽쇋쟖쪴ꆣ퓙볓짏뺺헹뗄볓뻧ꎬ틸탐슢뛏샻죳늻뢴듦퓚ꎬ쪹뗃뷰죚믺릹쟷쿲폚톡퓱룟럧쿕듻뿮ퟩ뫏ꎬ퓚뷰죚ퟔ평뮯틔뫳ꎬ퓶볓쇋틸탐쎰쿕뗄믺믡ꎬ틸탐튵컱럧쿕뗄뿉쓜탔볓듳ꆣ퓚듳뛠쫽맺볒쪵탐듦뿮놣쿕훆뛈ꎬ믲뛔틸탐뗈뷰죚믺릹볓틔믲쏷믲낵뗄놣뮤벰닉좡ퟮ뫳뗄쟀뻈폫풮훺ힴ첬쿂ꎬ뗀뗂럧쿕컊쳢뷸튻늽볓뻧ꆣ 쇭췢ꎬퟔ평뮯뮹믡퓚웤쯻랽쏦듸살펰쿬ꎬ죧ꎨ1ꎩ믣싊럧쿕ꎬ퓚뫜뛠맺볒ꎬ뷰죚ퟔ평뮯뮹냩쯦ퟅ복짙믲좡쿻뛔맺볊놾쇷뚯뗄맜훆ꆣ튻냣뛔폚룕룕ퟔ평뮯뗄맺볒뛸퇔ꎬ웤쒿뗄떱좻쫇춨맽ퟔ평뮯듙뷸놾맺뺭볃뗄랢햹ꎬ폚쫇튻냣뚼믡퓚맺볊짏돯벯췢믣뷰좻뫳듻룸맺쓚뷨뿮죋ꎬ헢퇹뇣믡퓢쫜떽뾪럅뺭볃쿂뗄믣싊럧쿕ꆣ퓚뷰죚ퟔ평뮯듳탐웤뗀횮쪱ꎬ뷷짷쿞훆췢믣럧쿕놩슶춨뎣쫜떽룷랽쏦뗄ퟨ쓓ꎬ믲헟쫇믵뇒럧쿕놻뮯캪탅듻럧쿕훰붥뗄샛믽웰살ꆣꎨ2ꎩ훆뛈럧쿕ꎬ뫜 8 Bhagwati, Jagdish. The Capital Myth [J]. Foreign Affairs,May/June, 1998,-12;Rodrik,Dani. Who Needs Capital Account Convertibility ? [A]. Princeton Essays in International Finance 207,1998,-65;Stiglitz,Joseph. Globalization and Its Discontents [M]. New York,,2002. 9 Fischer,Stanley. Capital Account Liberalization and the Role of the IMF [A]. Princeton Essays in International Financial [C]. 207,1998,-10;Summers, . International Financial Crises:Causes,Prevertion,and Cures [J]. American Economic Review,2000,,,-16. 7
뛠맺볒죏캪뷰죚ퟔ평뮯쓜릻쿻돽뷰죚톹틖ꎬ쳡룟뷰죚쳥쾵뗄킧싊ꎬ횻튪쪵쪩뷰죚ퟔ평뮯뻍쓜릻붨솢웰튻룶폐킧뗄뷰죚쳥쾵ꆣ쯻쏇좫뚼뫶쫓쇋뷰죚ퟔ평뮯뗄쫂쪵쫇탨튪퇏룱뗄쳵볾뫍쮳탲튪쟳뗄ꎬ쳘뇰쫇놾퓚훆뛈뿲볜닮틬뫜듳뗄맺볒ퟔ평뗄쇷뚯쪱ꎬ믡듦퓚탭뛠평폚훆뛈탔뗄늻쫊펦뛸듸살뗄럧쿕ꎬ뛸헢훖럧쿕늢늻쓜춨맽럀랶볓틔뷢뻶ꎬ횻폐훆뛈뗄뒴탂닅쓜듓룹놾짏뷢뻶컊쳢ꆣ 컥ꆢ쪵쿖ퟮ폅뷰죚ퟔ평뮯뗄쮼슷 뷰죚ퟔ평뮯뻸뛔늻쫇쪲쎴췲쇩떤ꎬ뛔폚쫇럱톡퓱뫍췆탐뷰죚폅믝쫇폐ퟅ퇏룱뗄쳵볾쿞훆뫍튻쾵쇐뗄횴탐튪쟳뗄ꆣ퓚헢킩랽쏦ꎬ틑뺭폐탭뛠뺭볃톧볒쏇뚼ퟶ돶쇋퇐뺿ꆣ ꎨ튻ꎩ뷰죚ퟔ평뮯뗄쳵볾 Fryꎨ1988ꎩ횸돶ꎺꆰ튪쫇뷰죚ퟔ평뮯믱뗃돉릦ꎬ훁짙뇘탫뻟놸솽룶잰쳡쳵볾ꎺ뫪맛뺭볃뫍쫊떱뗄틸탐볠맜ꆣꆱ1995쓪ꎬ쯻폖붫웤삩햹돉5룶ꎺꋙ돤럖뗄뷷짷뗄짌튵틸탐볠맜ꎬ냼삨튻킩ퟮ뗍쿞뛈뗄믡볆뫍램싉믹뒡ꎨ뿲볜ꎩꎻꋚ뷏캪컈뚨뗄컯볛쮮욽ꎻꋛ캬돖뿉돐쫜뗄헾뢮뷨뿮쮮욽ꎻꋜ틔샻죳ퟮ듳뮯캪쒿뇪뗄뺺헹탔짌튵틸탐쳥쾵ꎻꋝ늻뛔뷰죚훐뷩헷쫕쏷쿔뗄믲틾탔웧쫓탔쮰뿮뗄쮰쫕쳥쾵ꆣ 쫀뷧틸탐ꎨ1993ꎩ퓲냑뷰죚ퟔ평뮯룄룯뗄돉릦쳵볾맩쓉캪쯄뗣ꎺꋙ뫪맛뺭볃컈뚨ꎻꋚ닆헾볍싉솼뫃ꎻꋛ램맦ꆢ믡볆훆뛈ꆢ맜샭쳥쾵췪짆ꎻꋜ좡쿻뛔뷰죚쳥쾵웧쫓탔쮰뢺ꎨ죧샻싊룟쿞ꆢ탅듻맜훆ꆢ룟뒢놸싊뗈ꎩꆣ ꎨ뛾ꎩ뷰죚ퟔ평뮯뗄쯙뛈 컞틉ꎬ뷰죚ퟔ평뮯펦룃ퟟ튻쳵톭탲붥뷸뗄뗀슷ꎬ웤샭평튲쫇뫜뻟폐쮵럾솦뗄ꎬ벴뺡맜뷰죚ퟔ평뮯뗄룄룯듫쪩쓜퓚벫뛌쪱볤쓚틔헾뢮뗄램쇮볓틔룄킴ꎬ떫쫊뫏폚뷰죚ퟔ평뮯퓋탐뗄훆뛈뮷뺳좴늻쫇튻뛸뻍뗄ꆣ떫뻟쳥뛸퇔뮹쫇튪뷡뫏룷룶맺볒뗄뷰죚뮷뺳뗄쪵볊쟩뿶살뷸탐톡퓱ꎬ틀뻝뺭퇩뛸퇔ꎬ튻냣랢듯맺볒뚼쫇닉좡뗄뿬쯙ퟔ평뮯뛸랢햹훐맺볒뇈뷏뛠뗘닉좡붥뷸쪽ꆣ웤훐ꎬ횵뗃힢틢뗄쫇붥뷸룅쓮뗄냑컕ꎬ늻쓜떥떥듓쪱볤뗄룅쓮짏살에뛏웤붥뷸돌뛈ꎬퟮ훷튪뗄뮹쫇펦룃쯦쪱힢훘ퟔ평뮯뗄쫕틦-럧쿕뗄뇈뛔ꆣ ꎨ죽ꎩ뷰죚ퟔ평뮯뗄쮳탲 싳뷰얩ꎨ1991ꎩ횸돶ꎺꆰ닆헾헾닟ꆢ믵뇒헾닟뫍췢믣헾닟죧뫎엄듎탲뗄컊쳢쫇훁맘훘튪뗄ꆣ헾뢮늻쓜ꎬ튲탭튲늻룃춬쪱쪵탐쯹폐ퟔ평뮯듫쪩ꆣ쿠랴ꎬ뺭볃ퟔ평뮯폐튻룶ퟮ폅쮳탲ꎬ헢훖ퟮ폅쮳탲튲탭믡틲ퟔ평뮯맺볒뗄돵쪼쳵볾뗄늻춬뛸늻춬ꆣꆱ뷰죚ퟔ평뮯뗄쮳탲샭싛폐솽룶닣듎ꎺ튻쫇쪵볊늿쏅ퟔ평뮯폫뷰죚늿쏅ퟔ평뮯횮볤뗄쮳탲뻶뚨ꎬ뛾쫇맺쓚뷰죚늿쏅ퟔ평뮯폫췢늿뷰죚늿쏅ퟔ평뮯횮볤뗄쮳탲뻶뚨ꆣ훷쇷틢볻죏캪뇪힢뗄뷰죚ퟔ평뮯쮳탲펦룃쫇죧쿂뇭쯹쪾ꎺ 맺 쓚 췢 늿 볛룱쫐뎡뮯 쿻돽쎳틗헏낭 쪵볊늿쏅 1 좡쿻뛔웳튵뗄쏷늹뫍낵늹 2 쎳틗헋뮧뿉뛒뮻 쮽폐뮯 맺쓚틸탐쳥쾵 좡쿻놾맜훆 뷰죚늿쏅 3 4 맺쓚놾쫐뎡 놾헋뮧뿉뛒뮻 ꎨ쯄ꎩퟔ평뮯훐뗄헾뢮볠맜 뿉틔뾴돶컞싛퓵쎴맩쓉뫍ퟜ뷡ꎬ뷰죚뗄ퟔ평뮯쪼훕샫늻뾪솽룶훷튪랽쏦뗄엤뫏ꎺ쫐뎡뫍헾뢮ꎬ튲뿉틔쮵ꎬ퓵퇹닅쓜룼뫃뗄뷰죚ퟔ평뮯쪵볊짏쫇퓚뷢뻶죧뫎훘탂럖엤쫐뎡뫍헾뢮뗄횰퓰ꎬ죧뫎훘탂룸쫐뎡뫍헾뢮뚨캻ꎬ죧뫎붨솢웰튻훖탂탍뗄ꎬ룼럻뫏좫쟲뺭볃랢햹뗄ꎬ룼뻟폐랢햹잱솦뗄쫐뎡폫헾뢮횮볤뗄맘쾵ꎿ쮵떽헢샯ꎬ컒쏇뇘탫실뷅퓚뷰죚뗄볠맜짏ꆣ 쪲쎴뷐ퟶ뷰죚볠맜ꎬ쪵볊짏뻍쫇폃헾뢮뗄솦솿살쏖늹쫐뎡뗄늻ퟣꆣ평폚쫐뎡듦퓚탅쾢늻췪좫뫍췢늿킧펦뗈컊쳢ꎬ쪹웤뫜쓑듯떽샭싛짏뗄ꆰ엁샛췐ퟮ폅ꆱꎬ뷰죚쫐뎡짏춬퇹듦퓚헢퇹뗄컊쳢ꆣ짵훁평폚뷰죚퓚짧믡뺭볃훐뗄쳘쫢뗘캻뫍쯹웰뗄쳘쫢ퟷ폃ꎬ틔벰웤퓋펪쳘탔ꎬ쪹뗃뛔뷰죚뗄볠맜쿲살쫇뫁컞헹틩ꆣ벴쪹뷰죚쎻폐쏦쿲쫀뷧뺭볃뗄뾪럅ꎬ쏦뛔맺쓚쫐뎡뻍믡틲캪웤늿럖듦 8
뿮ힼ놸훆뛈뫍ퟮ뫳듻뿮죋훆뛈뛸닺짺잰쏦쯹첸떽뗄쓦쿲톡퓱뫍뗀뗂럧쿕ꆣ떱뷰죚ퟔ평뮯뫳ꎬ뇘튪뗄볠맜룼쫇탨튪룼폐솦뛈뫍훘뗣ꆣ 뿉틔쮵뷰죚ퟔ평뮯뗄샭싛쳡돶횮돵뻍쎻폐업돢맽뷰죚볠맜ꎬ짵훁뿉틔쮵튻횱뚼퓚잿뗷ퟅ볠맜뗄훘튪탔ꆣ싳뷰얩횸돶ꎺ뷰죚ퟔ평뮯늢늻틢캶ퟅ늻탨튪볠맜ꎬ뷰죚ퟔ평뮯늢늻뗈폚럅웺헾뢮뛔틸탐뫍웤쯻뷰죚믺릹뗄볠뚽ꆣ랢햹훐맺볒뗄막욱쫐뎡늻랢듯ꎬ볈좱랦랢듯맺볒훐퇫틸탐돐떣뗄ퟮ뫳듻뿮죋횧돖ꎬ튲좱짙듦뿮놣쿕훆뛈ꆣ튻떩췪좫뷢돽샻싊맜훆ꎬ틸탐ힷ훰룟럧쿕샻싊듻뿮ꎬ뮵헋듳솿퓶볓ꎬ죝틗탎돉떹뇕ꆣ뿉볻ꎬ랢햹훐맺볒헾뢮룼펦볓잿뛔틸탐뗄폐킧볠뚽ꆣ뷰죚볠맜뗄쓚죝퓚ퟔ평뮯룄룯횮잰ꎬ튻횱쫇틔놣뮤틸탐샻죳캪잰쳡ꎬ틔듯떽뷰죚컈뚨캪쒿뇪ꎻ퓚뾪럅뺺헹횮뫳ꎬ퓲펦룃붫웤쓚죝쪼훕놣돖룺뷰죚ퟔ평뮯뗄쓚죝쿠튻훂뫍킭뗷ꆣ 췾솮쒷즭뫍십맾ꎨ1998ꎩ붫뷰죚ퟔ평뮯뗄쓚죝ퟜ뷡캪쇹룶랽쏦ꎺ쿻돽탅듻맜훆ꆢ샻싊쫐뎡뮯ꆢ틸탐늿쏅ퟔ싉ꆢ뷰죚튵뷸돶ퟔ평ꆢ쏱펪뮯뫍놾쇷뚯ퟔ평뮯ꆣ춬퇹뗄ꎬ뷰죚볠맜튲펦룃냼삨ꎺ뛔샻싊쮮욽뫍뷡릹ꆢ믣싊쮮욽뫍늨뚯ꆢ놾쇷뷸뫍쇷돶ꆢ뷰죚믺릹뗄튵컱랶캧ꆢ뷰죚믺릹탅듻ퟜ솿벰춶쿲뗈튻쾵쇐쓚죝ꆣ뛸쿖퓚놻웕뇩뷓쫜뗄볠맜샭쓮쫇닉좡튻훖짳짷뗄볠맜풭퓲ꆣ퓚헢샯벴뛔틸탐뗄튪쟳쫇튻훖맦랶탔뗄욷훊맜샭ꎬ틔럀랶뷰죚럧쿕뫍듙뷸뺺헹캪쒿뗄ꎬ틸탐뻟폐돤럖뗄튵컱ퟔ뻶좨ꎬ웤쒿뗄쫇캪쇋쪹뷰죚ퟔ평뮯뗄킧맻룼폅ꆣ 탅쾢뺭볃톧쳡돶쇋튻룶뇈뷏뫃뗄ꆰ붨틩ꆱꎬ쯻쏇죏캪ꎬ볠맜뗄쒿뗄퓚폚럀랶럧쿕ꎬ뛸럀랶럧쿕뗄룹놾듫쪩쫇ퟮ듳쿞뛈뗘뷢뻶탅쾢늻뛔돆탔ꎬ헢뻍튪쟳뷰죚볠맜뇘탫틔놣횤탅쾢뗄뿉뗃탔ꎨAvailabilityꎩꆢ춸쏷탔ꎨTransparencyꎩ뫍뿉뾿탔ꎨAccountabilityꎩ캪훐탄ꆣ짳짷뗄뷰죚볠맜늢늻쫇튻캶뗘좥럱죏헾뢮뗄탐헾탔잿훆탐캪ꎬ뛸쫇춬쪱잿뗷퓚쫐뎡믺훆뗄믹뒡짏ꎬ춨맽뺭볃솦솿놾짭뛔뷰죚믺릹뫍뷰죚쫐뎡뗄믮뚯쪵쪩훆풼ꎬ잿뗷맣듳쫐뎡닎폫헟뛔웤쯹닎폫쫐뎡뗄볠뚽맜샭뗄훘튪탔ꆣ뷰죚ퟔ평뮯쿂뗄뷰죚볠맜뗄쫗튪컊쳢쫇죧뫎욽뫢릫릲샻틦폫놻볠맜헟샻틦횮볤뗄맘쾵ꆣ뗏쏗죰ꆤ캬쯾ꎨDimitri Vittasꎩ죏캪ꎬ뷰죚볠맜탨튪듯떽죽룶쒿뇪ꆪꆪ컈뚨탔ꆢ킧싊탔뫍릫욽탔ꆣ쓇쎴헢뻍튪쟳퓚쫐뎡짏뗄쯹폐뺭펪훷쳥뚼쓜릻맡뎹ퟔ컒뢺퓰뗄풭퓲ꆣ쯹맡뎹뗄헢훖ퟔ컒뢺퓰풭퓲듓뫡쿲짏살뾴뿉럖캪쓚늿뫍췢늿ꎬ쓚늿벴뺭펪훷쳥ퟩ횯쓚늿믲헟쫇뷰죚믺릹뗄쓚늿ퟔ컒풼쫸믺훆틔벰뛔쯹폐훷쳥뗄풼쫸ꎬ뛔볠맜훷쳥뗄풼쫸믺훆튲펦냼삨퓚쓚ꎻ췢늿벴헻룶쫐뎡뗄췢늿뺭펪뮷뺳ꎬ냼삨튻쟐뗄램싉램맦ꆣ듓ퟝ쿲살뾴ꎬ뿉틔럖캪쿖쪱뫍붫살뗄ꎬ튲벴뛔헻룶쫐뎡뗄뺭펪맽돌뗄좫돌볠맜ꆣ뷰죚볠맜ꎬ퓚랶캧짏붫뢲룇쯹폐뗄뷰죚쇬폲ꎬ퓚짮뛈짏붫짮죫떽뷰죚믮뚯뗄룷룶뮷뷚ꆣ퓚좫쟲뺭볃튻쳥뮯뗄샋뎱훐ꎬ튲펦룃훘쫓퓚볠맜짏뗄맺볊뫏ퟷ폫킭뗷ꆣ 닎뾼컄쿗ꎺ [1]ꎮ믆뷰샏. 뷰죚ퟔ평뮯폫뷰죚든죵탔 [M]. 놱뺩: 훐맺돇쫐돶냦짧ꎬ2001. [2]ꎮ췵쫯맢. 뷰죚ퟔ평뮯폫뺭볃랢햹 [M]. 놱뺩: 놱뺩듳톧돶냦짧ꎬ2003. [3]ꎮ헅샳. 뷰죚ퟔ평뮯킧펦럖컶 [M]. 놱뺩: 훐맺뷰죚돶냦짧ꎬ2003. [4]ꎮ쿲컄뮪. 뷰죚ퟔ평뮯폫뷰죚럧쿕쿠맘탔퇐뺿 [M]. 놱뺩: 훐퇫뇠틫돶냦짧ꎬ2005. [5]ꎮ헅쟠쯉뗈틫. 틸탐캣믺뗄럀랶ꎺ뷼웚좫쟲틸탐떹뇕럧뎱뗄뷌통[M]. 놱뺩: 훐맺닆헾뺭볃돶냦짧ꎬ1999. [6]ꎮMaxwell J. Fry. Money and Capital or Financial Deepening in Economic Development [J]. Journal of Money, Credit and Banking ,Vol. 10, No. 4, Nov., 1978, pp. 464-475. [7]ꎮMaxwell J. Fry. In Favour of Financial Liberalisation [J]. The Economic Journal, Vol. 107, No. 442, May, 1997, pp. 754-770. [8]ꎮDiaz-Alejandro and Carlos. Good-bye Financial Repression, Hello Financial Crash [J]. Journal of Development Economics,1985,p19. [9]ꎮGerard Caprio Jr. and Daniela Klingebiel. Bank Luck,Bad Policy,or Bad Banking? [R]. Annual World Bank Conference on Development Economincs, 1996. 9
[10]ꎮGerard Caprio Jr. and Daniela Klingebiel. Bank Insolvencies-Cross-Country Experience [R]. The World Bank,, 1996. [11]ꎮChristian E. Weller. Financial Crises After Financial Liberalization:Exceptional Circumstances or Structural Weakness? [J]. The Journal of Development Studies,,,October,2001,-127. [12]ꎮDooleyꎬMichael. A Survey of Academic Literature on Controls over International Capital Transactions [R]. IMF Staff Paper 43, 1996, -687; Edwards,Sebastian. Capital Flows and Economic Performance [D]. Unpublished Paper,UCLA, 2000 ;Rossi,Marco. Financial Fragility and Economic Performance in Developing Countries:Do Capital Controls,Prudential Regulation and Supervision Matter [R]. IMF Working Paper WP/99/66, 1999. [13]ꎮAsli Demirguc-Kunt and Enrica Detragiache. Financial Liberalization and Financial Fragility [R]. The World Bank Working Paper,. [14]ꎮBhagwatiꎬJagdish. The Capital Myth [J]. Foreign Affairs,May/June 1998,-12;Rodrik,Dani. Who Needs Capital Account Convertibility ? [A]. Princeton Essays in International Finance 207,1998,-65;Stiglitz,Joseph. Globalization and Its Discontents [M]. New York. ,2002. [15]ꎮFischer,Stanley. Capital Account Liberalization and the Role of the IMF [A]. Princeton Essays in International Financial [C]. 207,1998,-10;Summers, H. Lawrence. International Financial Crises:Causes,Prevertion,and Cures [J]. American Economic Review,2000,,,-16. [16]ꎮPierre-RichardAgenor. Benefits and Costs of International Financial Integration: Theory and Facts [R]. The World Bank,,2001. Review on Relations Between The Theories of Financial Deepening & Financial Crisis Dongxiang Zhang Jie Huang Abstract: A finance liberalization climax has appeared in developing countries since the introduction of financial deepening theory in 1970’ financial crisis also rose one after another during this process. On rethinking financial liberalization, people began to realize all kinds of risks brought by financial liberalization, and there formed a series of theory of financial fragility. Based on these theories, we know that a country not only has to know financial liberalization itself, but also has knowledge of conditions and steps in the process of liberalization. The main body of this paper carries out comprehensive induction and commentary of a series of theory in the past. Key words: financial deepening; financial fragility; financial risk; financial crisis 쫕룥죕웚ꎺ2006-12-20 ퟷ헟뷩짜ꎺ헅뚫쿩ꎬ커몺듳톧뺭볃폫맜샭톧풺뺭볃톧늩쪿ꆢ뢱뷌쫚ꎻ믆뷠ꎬ커몺듳톧뺭볃폫맜샭톧풺뷰죚톧튵쮶쪿퇐뺿짺ꆣ 10
