뗚27뻭ꆡ뗚2웚ꆡꆡꆡꆡꆡꆡomꆡꆡꆡꆡꆡVol127,No122008쓪ꆡꆡ2퓂ꆡꆡꆡꆡꆡꆡꆡꆡꆡꆡꆡ벼ꆡ쫵ꆡ뺭ꆡ볃TechnologyEconicsFeb.,2008돖뻃탔쫕죫뛔훐맺얩쏱쿻럑펰쿬럖컶폚쫧늨1,2(11뮪훐뿆벼듳톧뺭볃톧풺,커몺430074;21즽뚫닆헾톧풺뺭볃톧풺,볃쓏250014)햪ꆡ튪:퓋폃뢥샯뗂싼뗄돖뻃탔쫕죫볙쮵럖컶컒맺얩쏱뗄쿻럑컊쳢,늢샻폃볆솿뺭볃톧뗄랽램뛔훐맺샺쓪얩쏱쿻럑춳볆쫽뻝뷸탐럖컶,뗃돶ꆰ돖뻃탔쫕죫벰돖뻃탔쫕죫뗄뇟볊쿻럑쟣쿲뛔컒맺쿖뷗뛎얩쏱쿻럑횧돶펰쿬뷏듳ꆱ뗄뷡싛,늢듓퓶볓돖뻃탔쫕죫뫍쳡룟돖뻃탔쫕죫뗄뇟볊쿻럑쟣쿲솽룶랽쏦뻍퓶볓얩쏱쿻럑쳡돶헾닟붨틩ꆣ맘볼듊:돖뻃탔쫕죫;얩쏱쿻럑;뇟볊쿻럑쟣쿲훐춼럖샠뫅:C812ꆡꆡ컄쿗뇪쪶싫:Aꆡꆡ컄헂뇠뫅:1002-980X(2008)02-0071-04ꆡꆡ뷼벸쓪,컒맺뾪쪼믽벫삩듳쓚탨,떫얩쏱뗄쿻럑뷏뗍,쿻럑헟튲믡듲훗솳돤엖ퟓ,쳡룟ퟔ벺뗄쿻럑쮮퓶뎤쯙뛈쪼훕뇈뷏뮺싽,헢틑돉캪훆풼뺭볃퓶뎤뗄욽;벬싖킧펦쫇횸쿻럑헟믡쫜ퟔ벺맽좥뗄쿻럑쾰맟훷튪틲쯘ꆣ삩듳얩쏱쿻럑,폐샻폚얩듥뗄짧믡컈뚨뗄펰쿬,벴쿻럑뻟폐늻뿉쓦탔ꆣ뫍얩쏱믽벫탔뗄뗷뚯,폐샻폚듙뷸얩듥뺭볃뗄랢햹,뻸뛔쫕죫볙쮵뫍쿠뛔쫕죫볙쮵뚼쫇벴웚쒣탍,쪵쿖좫쏦붨짨킡뾵짧믡뗄햽싔쒿뇪ꆣ늻럻뫏쿻럑헟뗄ퟮ폅뻶닟ꆣ틲듋,뢥샯뗂싼퓚탂맅뗤훷틥뿲볜쿂붫쿻럑뗄벴웚뻶닟췆맣떽뿧웚뻶닟,1ꆡ얩쏱쿻럑럖컶뗄샭싛톡퓱쳡돶쇋돖뻃탔쫕죫볙쮵ꆣ룃샭싛죏캪:쿻럑헟뗄쫕쒿잰,퓚럖컶쿻럑컊쳢랽쏦,컷랽쿻럑샭싛랢햹죫럖퓝쪱탔쫕죫뫍돖뻃탔쫕죫솽훖,퓝쪱탔쫕죫쫇뇈뷏췪짆ꆣ폐맘탂맅뗤쿻럑몯쫽[1]뗄뻟폐듺뇭탔뗄쿻럑헟튻쪱뗄ꆢ럇솬탸뗄ꆢ듸폐얼좻탔훊뗄쫕죫,돖쒣탍폐뾭뛷쮹뗄뻸뛔쫕죫볙쮵ꆢ뛅즭놴샻뗄쿠뛔쫕뻃탔쫕죫쫇쿻럑헟뿉틔풤웚뗄ꆢ솬탸뗄ꆢ듸폐뎣맦탔죫볙쮵ꆢ뢥샯뗂싼뗄돖뻃탔쫕죫볙쮵뗈,헢킩샭싛뻍훊뗄쫕죫ꆣ뢥샯뗂싼죏캪:쿻럑헟뗄쿻럑횧돶훷튪늻춬쫕죫뛔죋쏇쿻럑횧돶뗄펰쿬뷸탐쇋럖컶,웤훐쫇평웤돖뻃탔쫕죫뻶뚨뗄,뛸늻쫇평웤퓝쪱탔쫕죫뾭뛷쮹뗄뻸뛔쫕죫볙쮵쫇컷랽쿻럑샭싛뗄믹뒡,뫳뻶뚨뗄,벴쿻럑헟ퟜ쫇내돖뻃탔쫕죫뷸탐쿻럑ꆣ뛌살뗄샭싛뚼쫇퓚쯼뗄믹뒡짏랢햹뛸살뗄ꆣ웚쓚,떱쫕죫퓶볓쪱,쿻럑헟늻쓜뛏뚨쫕죫뗄퓶볓쫇뾭뛷쮹뗄뻸뛔쫕죫볙쮵볙뚨쿻럑쫇죋쏇쫕죫쮮럱믡튻횱볌탸쿂좥,틲뛸늻믡십짏돤럖뗷헻웤쿻럑;욽뗄몯쫽,웤믹놾릫쪽쫇:C=ꛁ+ꛂYꆣ쪽훐:C캪쿖춬퇹,떱쫕죫쿂붵쪱,쿻럑튲늻믡십짏돶쿖쿠펦뗄쿂웚쿻럑;ꛁ캪ퟔ랢탔쿻럑,벴믹놾짺믮쿻럑;ꛂ캪뇟볊붵;뛸죧맻퓚뎤웚쓚,쿻럑헟랢쿖쫕죫뇤뚯쫇돖뻃탔쿻럑쟣쿲;Y캪벴웚쫕죫;ꛂY뇭쪾틽훂쿻럑ꆣ룃몯뗄,뻍믡퓚돖뻃탔쫕죫쮮욽짏돤럖뗷헻웤쿻럑횧돶ꆣ쫽뗄믹놾몬틥쫇,쿻럑쫇ퟔ랢쿻럑뫍틽훂쿻럑뗄뫍,틲듋,튻듎탔퓝쪱쫕죫뗄뇤뮯틽웰뗄쿻럑횧돶뇤뚯쿻럑헟뗄쿻럑훷튪좡뻶폚벴웚쫕죫ꆣ뫜킡,뛸돖뻃탔쫕죫뗄뇤뚯틽웰뗄쿻럑횧돶뇤뮯뫜뛅즭놴샻뗄쿠뛔쫕죫볙쮵죏캪,쿻럑헟퓚ퟶ쿻듳,뛌웚뇟볊쿻럑쟣쿲ퟜ쫇뗍폚뎤웚뇟볊쿻럑쟣쿲ꆣ럑뻶뚨쪱,믡쫜ퟔ벺맽좥뗄쿻럑쾰맟틔벰훜캧죋뗄컷랽쿻럑샭싛뛔훐맺얩쏱쿻럑컊쳢퇐뺿뗄쫊폃쿻럑쮮ힼ뗄펰쿬ꆣ룃볙쮵뗄샭싛뫋탄쫇쪾랶킧펦뫍탔탨튪뷡뫏훐맺뗄뻟쳥쟩뿶뷸탐럖컶ꆣ룄룯뾪럅틔벬싖킧펦:쪾랶킧펦횸쿻럑헟믡쫜훜캧죋쿻럑쮮ힼ잰,훐맺쪵탐볆뮮뺭볃쳥훆,쿻럑욷릩룸뛌좱,얩쏱뗄펰쿬살뻶뚨ퟔ벺뗄쿻럑,죧맻훜캧죋뗄쿻럑쮮욽뗄톡퓱ퟔ평뛈뗍쟒횻쓜믹놾캬돖컂놥,뾭뛷쮹뗄뻸룟폚ퟔ벺,돶폚뛔짧믡뗘캻뫍쏦ퟓ뗄뾼싇,벴쪹쫕죫뛔쫕죫볙쮵뿉틔폃살뷢쫍컒맺헢튻쪱웚뗄얩쏱쿻럑쫕룥죕웚:2007-09-29믹뷰쿮쒿:맺볒짧믡뿆톧믹뷰쿮쒿(04BJY049)ퟷ헟볲뷩:폚쫧늨(1962ꆪ),얮,즽뚫웜쾼죋,즽뚫닆헾톧풺뺭볃톧풺뢱풺뎤,뷌쫚,뮪훐뿆벼듳톧뺭볃톧풺늩쪿퇐뺿짺,퇐뺿랽쿲:쿻럑뺭볃ꆣ71
벼쫵뺭볃ꆡꆡꆡꆡꆡꆡꆡꆡꆡꆡꆡꆡꆡꆡꆡꆡꆡꆡꆡꆡꆡꆡꆡꆡꆡꆡꆡꆡꆡꆡꆡꆡꆡꆡꆡꆡꆡꆡ뗚27뻭ꆡ뗚2웚컊쳢ꆣ룄룯뾪럅틔뫳,욽뻹훷틥룱뻖놻듲웆,얩쏱볤쿻럑뗄펰쿬훐,틔돖뻃탔쫕죫뗄펰쿬ퟮ듳,뢥샯뗂싼뗄쫕죫닮뻠삭듳,얩쏱쿻럑뗄쪾랶킧펦퓶잿,얩쏱뗄뗄돖뻃탔쫕죫볙쮵돉캪쿖뷗뛎럖컶컒맺얩쏱쿻럑컊쿻럑탐캪뺭뎣믡쫜떽훜캧죋쿻럑쮮ힼ뗄펰쿬,헢튻쳢뗄ퟮ병톡퓱[4]ꆣ쪱웚뗄얩쏱쿻럑컊쳢뿉틔폃뛅즭놴샻뗄쿠뛔쫕죫볙쮵살뷢쫍[2]ꆣ20쫀볍90쓪듺뫳,훐맺쫐뎡뺭볃쳥2ꆡ얩쏱쿻럑뗄쪵횤럖컶훆훰붥붨솢뫍췪짆,쿻럑욷뇈뷏돤ퟣ,쿻럑욷볛룱췪붫돖뻃탔쫕죫뫍퓝쪱탔쫕죫솽룶틲쯘ퟷ캪뷢쫍좫럅뾪,얩쏱폐쇋췪좫뗄쿻럑톡퓱ퟔ평,쫇럱쿻럑뗄뇤솿ꆢ짺믮쿻럑횧돶ퟷ캪놻뷢쫍뇤솿,뿉쇐돶튻룶맘훷뚯탔췪좫헆컕퓚얩쏱ퟔ벺쫖샯;풽살풽뛠뗄얩쏱폚컒맺얩쏱쿻럑뗄믘맩랽돌,벴Ct=ꛁ+ꛂYp+폐쇋쳡잰쿻럑뗄맛쓮,벴룹뻝ퟔ벺뗄돖뻃탔쫕죫쟩ꛃYtꆣ웤훐,Ct캪쿖웚짺믮쿻럑횧돶,ꛁ캪뇘탨뗄짺믮뿶쫊떱뗘뷨잮쿻럑튻킩쓍폃욷뫍짝돞욷ꆣ쯦ퟅ뷰죚쿻럑횧돶,Yp캪돖뻃탔쫕죫,ꛂ캪돖뻃탔쫕죫뛔펦뗄쿻럑탅듻퓚얩듥뗄랢햹,얩쏱뗄쇷뚯탔풼쫸쿠뛔복뇟볊쿻럑쟣쿲,Yt캪퓝쪱탔쫕죫,ꛃ캪퓝쪱탔쫕죫뛔짙,헢룼캪믹폚돖뻃탔쫕죫뷸탐쿻럑쳡릩쇋뇣샻쳵펦뗄뇟볊쿻럑쟣쿲ꆣ볾[3]ꆣ폫듋춬쪱,떳뗄쪮쇹듳쳡돶춳돯돇쿧킭뗷랢평폚톰헒돖뻃탔쫕죫뫍퓝쪱탔쫕죫뗄쫽뻝뇈뷏햹뗄햽싔,냑뷢뻶ꆰ죽얩ꆱ컊쳢ퟷ캪쯹폐릤ퟷ뗄훘훐삧쓑,틲듋퓚뷸탐럖컶쪱,놾컄춨맽뢥샯뗂싼뗄맀볆횮훘;맺볒뛔얩쏱쪵탐쇋뛠폨짙좡뗄헾닟,퓶볓쇋훐랽램[5]살볆쯣돖뻃탔쫕죫뫍퓝쪱탔쫕죫ꆣ퇫닆헾횧돖얩튵뗄뷰,붨솢쇋뛔얩쏱뗄횱뷓늹쳹Yp=(Ye+Ye-1+Ye-2)/3,(1)훆뛈,뛔얩듥쮰럑뷸탐좫쏦룄룯,쪹얩쏱뗄뢺떣폐쯹Yt=Ye-Ypꆣ복쟡;붨솢돇쿧샍뚯헟욽뗈뻍튵훆뛈튲놻쳡짏쇋죕쪽(1)훐:Ye캪쿖웚쫕죫,뿉폃얩쏱뗄쓪죋뻹뒿쫕죫돌ꆣ쇭췢,얩튵짺닺싊늻뛏쳡룟튲퓶볓쇋얩쏱뗄믹뇭쪾;Ye-1뇭쪾잰튻웚쫕죫;Ye-2뇭쪾잰솽웚쫕죫ꆣ뒡탔쫕죫;얩쏱뷸돇듲릤뗄죋쫽퓶뛠,튲캪얩쏱퓶볓듓쪽(1)뿉틔뾴돶:돖뻃탔쫕죫Yp캪떱웚뫍잰쇋컈뚨탔쫕죫살풴ꆣ헢킩뚼퓚뫜듳돌뛈짏퓶볓쇋얩솽웚뗄쿖웚쫕죫뗄볲떥쯣쫵욽뻹;퓝쪱탔쫕죫Yt퓲쏱뛔캴살쫕죫뗄풤웚ꆣ틲듋,퓚컒맺쿖쪱웚뛔얩쏱틔쿖웚쫕죫Ye뫍맀볆뗄돖뻃탔쫕죫Yp횮닮뇭쪾ꆣ뇭1ꆡ컒맺얩쏱1992ꆪ2005쓪뗄쫕죫폫쿻럑(풪)쓪럝얩쏱죋뻹짺믮쿻럑횧돶얩쏱죋뻹뒿쫕죫얩쏱죋뻹돖뻃탔쫕죫얩쏱죋뻹퓝쪱탔쫕죫CtYeYp=(Ye+Ye-1+Ye-2)/3Yt=Ye-Yp1992659101784100199376916592116219941016181122019897515324514519951310136157717412401113371631996157210819261101574194351116199716171152090110186416522514519981590133216210020591401021601999157714222101342154115561192000167011322531422208159441832001174110923661402276172891682002183413124751632365115110148200319431302622124248810913411520042184165293614026781092581312005255514032541932937186317107ꆡꆡ힢:쫽뻝룹뻝샺쓪ꆶ훐맺춳볆쓪본ꆷ볆쯣뗃돶ꆣꆡꆡ뇭1쫇컒맺얩쏱1992ꆪ2005쓪뗄쫕죫폫쿻럑21523760ꆣR2캪뿉뻶쾵쫽,F캪F볬퇩횵,삨뫅훐뗄쫽뻝,뛔틔짏쫽뻝샻폃EVIEWS죭볾뷸탐믘맩럖쫽ퟖ쫇t횵,D1W1캪뗂뇶-컖즭볬퇩횵ꆣ듓믘맩뷡컶,뗃돶죧쿂뷡맻:맻살뾴:뿉뻶쾵쫽R2뷓뷼폚1,F횵듳폚10,쮵쏷랽Ct=-14116766+01718415Yp+11297676Yt,돌훐뗄뷢쫍뇤솿뛔놻뷢쫍뇤솿뗄펰쿬쿔훸;떫퓚쿔(-01321382)ꆡ(42121340)ꆡ(14192707)훸탔쮮욽ꛁ=0105쿂,뎣쫽쿮뗄믘맩쾵쫽늻쿔훸룅웤훐,R2=01994988;F=89313262;D1W1=싊캪017553,듳폚0105,쮵쏷뎣쫽쿮뛔놻뷢쫍뇤솿72
ꆡꆡꆡꆡꆡꆡꆡꆡꆡꆡꆡꆡꆡꆡꆡꆡꆡꆡꆡꆡꆡꆡꆡꆡꆡꆡꆡꆡꆡꆡꆡ폚쫧늨:돖뻃탔쫕죫뛔훐맺얩쏱쿻럑펰쿬럖컶펰쿬늻듳,틲듋쳞돽뎣쫽쿮뫳훘탂뷸탐믘맩럖컶,뗃떽뷡맻죧쿂:Ct=01713425Yp+11280439Ytꆣ(2)ꆡꆡ(10713729)ꆡ(19161507)웤훐,R2=01994930;F=19621532;D1W1=21500443ꆣ룃뷡맻뗄뿉뻶쾵쫽R2뷓뷼폚1,F횵튲뫜듳,뛸쟒돖뻃탔쫕죫뫍퓝쪱탔쫕죫뗄믘맩쾵쫽늻쿔훸룅싊뻹캪0,헢쮵쏷돖뻃탔쫕죫뫍퓝쪱탔쫕죫뗄믘맩쾵쫽뚼쿔훸;떫퓝쪱탔쫕죫뗄뇟볊쿻럑쟣쿲듳폚1,듓쪵볊쟩뿶럖컶,헢쮵쏷얩쏱폐뎬잰쿻럑뗄쟣쿲,춬쪱튲쮵쏷얩쏱늢늻쫇뷶뷶룹뻝퓝쪱탔쫕죫낲업횧돶춼2ꆡCt폫Yt뗄즢뗣춼뗄,뛸쫇ퟛ뫏뾼싇돖뻃탔쫕죫뷸탐쿻럑뻶닟뗄;춬웤훐,R2=01985755;F=31114049;D1W1=쪱,듓얩쏱쿻럑쟩뿶뗄쫽뻝뇭훐뿉틔뾴떽,퓚11889495ꆣ쪽(3)훐,lnYp뫍lnYt뗄쾵쫽뿉뷼쯆뾴ퟷ1996ꆪ2000쓪웚볤,얩쏱뗄퓝쪱탔쫕죫튻횱돊쿂붵쫇돖뻃탔쫕죫뫍퓝쪱탔쫕죫뗄뇟볊쿻럑쟣쿲ꆣ쫆첬,쟒쿂붵럹뛈뷏듳,떫쿻럑횧돶좴퓚컈늽퓶뎤,춼3쿔쪾쇋쪽(3)뗄쓢뫏쟩뿶:퓝쪱탔쫕죫뗄쿂뗸뫍쿻럑뗄컈늽퓶뎤잡뫃횤쏷쇋솽헟뗄쿠맘탔뫜죵ꆣ뛸퓝쪱탔쫕죫뗄뇟볊쿻럑쟣쿲횮쯹틔듳폚1,쫇틲캪쿻럑헟룹뻝돖뻃탔쫕죫낲업쿻럑뗄쪱뫲,퓚뇘탨뗄쟩뿶쿂믡뾼싇뷨듻믲뚯폃튻늿럖뒢탮,듓뛸떼훂떱웚뗄쿻럑뎬맽떱웚믱뗃뗄퓝쪱탔쫕죫ꆣ틔뇭1뗄쫽뻝캪퇹놾럖뇰ퟶ돶돖뻃탔쫕죫뫍퓝쪱탔쫕죫폫쿻럑뗄즢뗣춼,죧춼1뫍춼2쯹쪾ꆣ춼3ꆡ얩쏱쿻럑횧돶폫돖뻃탔쫕죫뫍퓝쪱탔쫕죫뗄쟺쿟쓢뫏춼퓚틔짏럖컶뷡맻훐,뿉뻶쾵쫽R2뷓뷼폚1,F횵뫜듳,랽돌뗄룷쿮횸뇪뚼럻뫏튪쟳,쓢뫏춼튲쮵쏷랽돌뗄쓢뫏돌뛈뷏뫃ꆣ춼1ꆡCt폫Yp뗄즢뗣춼3ꆡ뷡싛폫헾닟붨틩듓춼1뫍춼2뿉틔뾴돶,죋뻹돖뻃탔쫕죫캪2룹뻝잰쏦뗄쫽뻝럖컶뿉틔뗃돶죧쿂뷡싛:000풪틔짏쪱,쿻럑폫돖뻃탔쫕죫Yp믹놾돊쿟탔맘1)얩쏱짺믮쿻럑횧돶훷튪쫜돖뻃탔쫕죫벰돖뻃쾵,뛸쿻럑폫퓝쪱탔쫕죫Yt뗄쿟탔맘쾵늻쏷쿔:헢탔쫕죫뗄뇟볊쿻럑쟣쿲펰쿬ꆣ얩쏱뗄쿻럑횧돶폫돖튲쫇퓝쪱탔쫕죫뗄뇟볊쿻럑쟣쿲듳폚1뗄풭틲횮뻃탔쫕죫돊헽쿠맘맘쾵,벴쯦ퟅ얩쏱돖뻃탔쫕죫뗄튻ꆣ캪쇋복짙퓝쪱탔쫕죫뛔쿻럑뗄럇쿟탔펰쿬,뛔퓶뎤,얩쏱뗄짺믮쿻럑횧돶튲퓚늻뛏퓶볓ꆣ뻟쳥살랽돌뷸탐뛔쫽뇤뮻,뗃돶틔쿂뷡맻:쮵,얩쏱뗄돖뻃탔쫕죫뗄뇟볊쿻럑쟣쿲캪LnCt=11039808+01765826lnYp+01113192lnYtꆣ01765826,벴돖뻃탔쫕죫쎿뇤뮯튻룶떥캻,쿻럑뻍퓶(31914910)ꆡ(24195151)ꆡ(81129973)(3)볓01765826룶떥캻,헢쮵쏷돖뻃탔쫕죫뗄뇤뮯뛔얩73
벼쫵뺭볃ꆡꆡꆡꆡꆡꆡꆡꆡꆡꆡꆡꆡꆡꆡꆡꆡꆡꆡꆡꆡꆡꆡꆡꆡꆡꆡꆡꆡꆡꆡꆡꆡꆡꆡꆡꆡꆡꆡ뗚27뻭ꆡ뗚2웚쏱쿻럑뗄뇤뮯폐뫜듳뗄펰쿬ꆣ뚨얩쏱뗄쫕죫ꆣ2)퓝쪱탔쫕죫뛔얩쏱짺믮쿻럑횧돶뗄펰쿬뫜튪쳡룟얩쏱돖뻃탔쫕죫뗄뇟볊쿻럑쟣쿲,훷튪죵ꆣ퓝쪱탔쫕죫뗄뇟볊쿻럑쟣쿲캪01113192,웤퓶쫇튪룄뇤얩쏱뛔캴살쫕죫뫍횧돶뗄탄샭풤웚,틲캪볓믲복짙뛔얩쏱쿻럑뗄펰쿬뫜킡ꆣ뷼쓪살,뺡맜퓝죧맻얩쏱죏캪캴살뗄쫕죫믡퓶볓믲캴살뗄횧돶믡복쪱탔쫕죫폐퓶폐복,떫얩쏱짺믮쿻럑횧돶좴튻횱퓚짙,뻍폐뿉쓜쿻럑웤훐뗄듳늿럖쫕죫,듓뛸쳡룟얩쏱컈뚨퓶볓;틲듋,쯤좻퓝쪱탔쫕죫쫇얩쏱쿻럑쪱뗄뾼뗄뇟볊쿻럑쟣쿲ꆣ틲듋,쳡룟얩쏱돖뻃탔쫕죫뗄뇟싇틲쯘횮튻,떫뛔얩쏱짺믮쿻럑벸뫵쎻폐펰쿬ꆣ볊쿻럑쟣쿲,튻랽쏦펦룄뇤얩쏱뛔캴살쫕죫뗄탄샭ퟛ짏,돖뻃탔쫕죫뫍돖뻃탔쫕죫뗄뇟볊쿻럑쟣풤웚,뿉듓룄짆얩듥틥컱뷌폽ꆢ얩듥튽쇆컀짺ힴ뿶죫쿲쫇펰쿬얩쏱쿻럑뗄ퟮ훷튪틲쯘,튪퓶볓얩쏱뗄쿻쫖,쳡룟죋솦놾뗄샻폃싊,쪹얩뮧뻟폐뷏룟뗄ꆢ컈럑,뻍뇘탫퓶볓얩쏱뗄돖뻃탔쫕죫,늢쳡룟돖뻃탔쫕뚨뗄풤웚쫕죫;쇭튻랽쏦,펦룄뇤얩쏱뛔캴살횧돶뗄죫뗄뇟볊쿻럑쟣쿲ꆣ탄샭풤웚,뿉붨솢붡좫얩듥짧믡놣헏쳥쾵,쳘뇰쫇볓퓶볓얩쏱뗄돖뻃탔쫕죫,훷튪펦복짙얩튵뗄ퟔ잿얩듥튽쇆ꆢ퇸샏놣쿕뗄붨짨뗈,틔복짙얩쏱뗄캴살좻럧쿕뫍쫐뎡럧쿕,틲캪얩튵뗄ퟔ좻럧쿕뫍쫐뎡럧횧돶,듓뛸쳡룟뇟볊쿻럑쟣쿲,퓶볓얩쏱쿻럑ꆣ쿕쫇얩쏱쫕죫늻컈뚨ꆢ좱랦돖뻃탔뗄훷튪풭틲ꆣ튻랽쏦,얩튵짺닺쫜ퟔ좻틲쯘펰쿬뫜듳,뻟폐뫜듳뗄늻좷뚨탔,듓뛸퓬돉얩쏱쫕죫튲쿠펦뗘늻컈뚨ꆢ좱랦돖닎뾼컄쿗뻃탔ꆣ튪뷢뻶뫃헢튻컊쳢,뻍펦볓듳얩튵춶죫솦뛈[1]ꆡ믆퇇뻹,풬횾룕.뫪맛뺭볃톧[M].놱뺩:룟뗈뷌폽돶냦짧,,볓잿믹뒡짨쪩붨짨2000:891,퓶잿얩튵뾹퓖쓜솦,복킡ퟔ좻틲쯘뛔얩튵뗄펰쿬돌뛈ꆣ쇭튻랽쏦,얩튵짺닺맽돌뷏[2]ꆡ훬탅뾭,샗몣헂.룄룯뾪럅틔살컒맺얩듥뻓쏱쿻럑탐캪뗄뎤쪵횤럖컶[J].쓏랽뺭볃,2003(11):4424,얩튵짺닺튪쯘51(죧췁뗘)폖뻟폐릩룸떯탔킡뗄쳘[3]ꆡ퇮쯘쎷.훐맺얩쏱쿻럑탐캪뗄쒣탍럖컶[J].뫾놱쏱ퟥ톧풺뗣,쯹틔뛌웚쓚얩닺욷릩룸뛔탨쟳뇤뮯뗄랴펦쓜솦톧놨(ퟔ좻뿆톧냦),2005(3):932941뷏죵,떼훂얩닺욷볛룱늻컈뚨,얩튵짺닺뻟폐쏷쿔뗄[4]ꆡ몫?,췵붡.뫓놱쪡얩듥뻓쏱쿻럑탨쟳펰쿬틲쯘럖컶[J].쫐뎡럧쿕ꆣ튪뷢뻶뫃헢튻컊쳢,뻍펦늻뛏췪짆얩닺얩튵벼쫵뺭볃,2005(5):662681욷놣뮤볛룱헾닟,붨솢짺닺럧쿕믹뷰ꆢ볛룱뗷뷚믹뷰[5]ꆡ탱뫣.훐맺쿻럑몯쫽럖컶[M].짏몣:짏몣죋쏱돶냦짧,뫍얩닺욷뒢놸훆뛈,듓뛸컈뚨얩닺욷뗄볛룱,뷸뛸컈1994:1911AnalysisonEffectsofPermanentIncomeonChineseFarmersꆯConsumptionYuShubo1,2(11SchoolofEconomics,HuazhongUniversityofScienceandTechnology,Wuhan430074,China;21SchoolofEconomics,ShandongUniversityofFinance,Jinan250014,China)Abstract:ThispaperusesFriedmanꆯspermanentincomehypothesistoresearchChinesefarmersꆯ,itdrawsconclusionsthatpermanentincomeandmarginalpropensitytoconsumeofpermanentincomeplayimportantrolesininfluencingChinesefarmersꆯ:permanentincome;farmersꆯconsumption;marginalpropensitytoconsume74
