쇖ꆡ쫷뗈:춶헟ꆰ죈쫖킧펦ꆱ폫ꆰ뛄춽쏽컳ꆱ뗄탄샭쪵퇩퇐뺿춶헟ꆰ죈쫖킧펦ꆱ폫ꆰ뛄춽쏽컳ꆱ뗄탄샭쪵퇩퇐뺿3쇖ꆡ쫷ꆡ폡ꆡ쟇ꆡ쳀헰폮ꆡ훜ꆡ붨ꆡꆡ쓚죝쳡튪:놾컄퓋폃탄샭톧쪵퇩퇐뺿랢쿖,컞싛막볛솬탸짏헇뮹쫇쿂뗸,퓚훐맺놾쫐뎡짏뻟폐뷏룟뷌폽돌뛈뗄룶죋춶헟믲잱퓚룶죋춶헟훐ꆰ,뛄춽쏽컳ꆱ킧펦뛔막볛탲쇐뇤뮯뗄ퟷ폃뻹튪잿폚ꆰ죈쫖킧펦ꆱ,햼뻝훷떼뗘캻ꆣ퓚막볛솬탸짏헇뗄쟩뿶쿂,쯦ퟅ짏헇쪱볤볓뎤,쯻쏇죏캪쿂튻웚막볛쿂뗸뗄뿉쓜탔풽살풽듳,듓뛸싴돶뗄쟣쿲퓶듳,뛸싲뷸뗄쟣쿲뇤킡;막볛솬탸쿂뗸쪱,쯦ퟅ쿂뗸뗄쪱볤볓뎤,춶헟죏캪쿂튻웚막볛짏헇뗄뿉쓜탔풽살풽듳,듓뛸싲뷸뗄쟣쿲퓶듳,싴돶뗄쟣쿲복킡ꆣ헢튻뷡맻뇭쏷,퓚훐맺막욱쫐뎡뒦폚훐뎤웚ꆰ태쫐ꆱ훐쪱,훁짙뷏룟횪쪶쮮욽뗄룶쳥춶헟듦퓚웚췻쫐뎡믘짽뗄믹놾탄샭뚯솦ꆣ쪵퇩튲랢쿖쇋헢킩춶헟듦퓚ퟅ쏷쿔뗄ꆰ뒦훃킧펦ꆱ,벴막볛짏헇쪱쟣쿲폚싴돶,막볛쿂뗸쪱퓲쟣쿲폚볌탸돖폐,룃킧펦퓚얮탔벰튵춶횪쪶폫뺭퇩돌뛈뷏뗍뗄춶헟짭짏룼볓쏷쿔ꆣ맘볼듊:죈쫖킧펦ꆡ뛄춽쏽컳ꆡ탄샭톧쪵퇩ꆡ뒦훃킧펦튻ꆢ틽ꆡ퇔훐맺막쫐쪮뛠쓪뗄뛌퓝랢햹샺돌뺭맽벸뛈돁뢡,퓸뺭퓚2001쓪6퓂짏횤횸쫽듯떽샺쪷ퟮ룟2245뗣,떫쫇듋뫳튻횱쿂뗸;돖탸쯄쓪뛠뗄ꆰ태쫐ꆱ쪹훐맺뗄막욱쫐뎡벸뫵돉캪ꆰ웺뛹ꆱ,쏦쇙ퟅ놻ꆰ뇟풵뮯ꆱ뗄캣쿕(쯯헗뇳,2005;돂닽뮪,2005)ꆣ놾컄췪룥쪱샺뺭쫽쓪횮뻃뗄ꆰ태쫐ꆱ뮹캴볻쏷쿔믘짽벣쿳,헻룶쫐뎡웸럕죔뒦폚놯맛쟩탷뗄쇽헖횮훐(훜쏷붣,2005)ꆣ훐맺뗄ꆰ태쫐ꆱ쫇럱믡뎤웚돖탸?쯼쫇럱듦퓚믺뗄뿉쓜?쫐뎡쓚늿쫇럱듦퓚뿉쓜췆뚯볛룱믘짽뗄믽벫틲쯘?룷랽쏦뚼룸폨쇋룟뛈맘힢ꆣ틲듋,뷒쪾퓚쫐뎡막볛늻뛏쿂뗸쪱뗄춶헟풤웚벰웤떼훂뗄붻틗탐캪캪뷢듰헢킩컊쳢쳡릩쇋폐틦뗄쿟쯷ꆣ놾컄뻍쫇퓚쒿잰훐맺막욱쫐뎡듳ꆰ태쫐ꆱ뗄놳뺰쿂ퟅ훘퇐뺿막볛솬탸쿂뗸(짏헇)쪱,춶헟뗄탄샭풤웚폫뿉쓜뗄붻틗탐캪ꆣ컒쏇뗄퇐뺿쫔춼춨맽탄샭톧쪵퇩살죏쪶룶쳥춶헟퓚쏦뛔늻춬뗄맽좥막볛헇뗸탲쇐탅쾢쪱뗄죏횪볓릤폫붻틗탐캪,늢폃죏횪탄샭톧훐맘폚웴랢쪽(heuristics)탄샭뗄샭싛뛔듋볓틔럖컶ꆣ놾컄퇐뺿훐짦벰떽뗄훷튪폐솽훖웴랢쪽탄샭ꆰ:죈쫖킧펦ꆱ(hothand)뫍ꆰ뛄춽쏽컳ꆱ(gamblerꆯsfallacy)ꆣGilovich,Vallone폫Tversky(1985)뗚튻듎좷죏쇋죋쏇퓚풤닢쳥폽뇈주뷡맻쪱믡닺짺쾵춳욫닮ꆣ쯻쏇랢쿖삺쟲퓋뚯풱뫍쟲쏔쏇뚼쿠탅죧맻튻룶퓋뚯풱퓚틔잰뗄춶삺솬탸쏼훐,쿂듎춶삺쯻룼뿉쓜믡쏼훐ꆣ헢훖탅쓮쫇튻훖욫닮,틲캪춶삺쫇럱쏼훐뗄쪵볊뷡맻횮볤늢늻듦퓚헽쿠맘맘쾵ꆣ헢훖맽뛈랴펦뗄쿖쿳풴폚쯹캽ꆰ죈쫖킧펦ꆱ(hothand)뗄듭컳탅쓮ꆣ쇭튻샠에뛏짏뗄욫컳튲뺭뎣퓚뛄뎡훐뛄춽뗄짭짏랢쿖ꆣ쯻쏇쟣쿲폚죏캪싖엌뗄뫬뫚솽즫쫇붻쳦돶쿖뗄,죧맻튻훖퇕즫돶쿖뗄듎쫽맽뛠,퓲쿂3ꆡ쇖쫷,쓏뺩듳톧짌톧풺믡볆톧쾵,폊헾뇠싫:210093,뗧ퟓ탅쿤:sꆪlin2006@;031025034@;폡쟇,쟥뮪듳톧릫릲맜샭톧풺뫍뢴떩듳톧맜샭톧풺,폊헾뇠싫:100084,뗧ퟓ탅쿤:yuqiao@;쳀헰폮ꆢ훜붨,뢴떩듳톧맜샭톧풺,폊헾뇠싫:200433ꆣퟷ헟럇뎣룐킻쓤쏻짳룥죋뛔놾컄쳡돶뗄붨짨탔틢볻,헢킩틢볻쪹ퟷ헟퓚탞룄컄헂훐쫜틦,떫컄훐뗄쯹폐듭컳폫쫨뫶뻹평ퟷ헟뢺퓰ꆣ58
2006쓪뗚8웚튻듎뻍뫜뿉쓜믡돶쿖쇭튻훖퇕즫,좻뛸퓚쎿튻듎쫔퇩훐,헽랴쏦돶쿖뗄룅싊뚼쫇015ꆣTversky뫍Kahneman(1982)폫Terrell(1994)쳖싛쇋헢훖돆캪ꆰ뛄춽쏽컳ꆱ(gamblerꆯsfallacy)뗄죏횪욫닮ꆣ쫜ꆰ뛄춽쏽컳ꆱ펰쿬뗄뛄춽폫쫜ꆰ죈쫖킧펦ꆱ컳떼뗄쟲쏔튻퇹,뚼맽럖뗘죏캪튻쾵쇐쫂볾뗄뷡맻뚼퓚쒳훖돌뛈짏틾몬쇋ퟔ쿠맘뗄맘쾵ꆣLakonishok,Shleifer폫Vishny(1994)횸돶춶헟쾲뮶폃맽좥뗄탅쾢,죧펯샻믲쿺쫛퓶뎤살풤닢막볛ꆣ떫쫇,춶헟늢늻쫇췪쏀뗄탅쾢볓릤헟,쯻쏇뺭뎣쪹폃웴랢쪽뗄닟싔살쫕벯탅쾢,쏦뛔막볛솬탸헇뗸뗄탲쇐탅쾢쪱,춶헟뛔탅쾢뗄볓릤튲믡돶쿖웴랢쪽쮼캬ꆣ퓚춶헟룶쳥쮮욽짏ꆰ,죈쫖킧펦ꆱ폫ꆰ뛄춽쏽컳ꆱ헢솽훖웴랢쪽탄샭틲쯘뚼믡웰ퟷ폃ꆣ퓚짏헇탲쇐룕뾪쪼뗄쪱뫲,춶헟랢쿖쇋늢쟒죏캪헢퇹뗄막욱폐볛횵,듓뛸뛔웤뇭쿖돶쿠떱뗄죈쟩ꆣ떱막볛돖탸짏헇쪱,춶헟뻍믡풽살풽뾴훘헢횧막욱뛸쟣쿲폚싲뷸,헢퇹뗄탐캪믡듯떽튻룶뚥뗣ꆣ뛸Shefrin(1999)뇭쏷,퓚훀펲뇒뗄쪵퇩훐,솬탸돶쿖헽쏦믲랴쏦쪱,죋쏇믹놾짏믡풤닢쿂듎뷡맻쫇쿠랴뗄ꆣ뛸퓚막욱쫐뎡훐,춶헟믡퓚막볛솬탸짏헇믲쿂뗸튻뛎쪱볤뫳풤웚쯼믡랴ꆣ헢뇭쏷,떱막볛솬탸짏헇믲쿂뗸뗄탲쇐뎬맽쒳튻뗣쪱,춶헟뻍믡돶쿖랴뗄풤웚,틲뛸쟣쿲폚퓚막볛솬탸짏헇뎬맽쒳튻쇙뷧뗣쪱싴돶ꆣJoseph(2001)뛔짏쫐릫쮾쎿막펯샻싊(EPS)솬탸헇뗸쪱뗄춶헟탐캪뷸탐쇋쪵퇩퇐뺿ꆣ쯻랢쿖쯦ퟅ쎿막펯샻헇뗸탲쇐뗄볓뎤,춶헟뇭쿖돶솽훖늻춬뗄웴랢쪽탄샭ꆣ퓚돵웚쪱쯻쏇죏캪탲쇐뗄쟷쫆붫돖탸,듓뛸뇭쿖돶ꆰ죈쫖킧펦ꆱ:쎿막펯샻룕룕짏짽(쿂붵)쪱,춶헟죏캪쯼뮹붫돖탸짏짽(쿂붵),싲뷸(싴돶)뗄쟣쿲퓶듳;뛸떱탲쇐튻횱볓뎤쪱,춶헟퓲뇭쿖돶쇋ꆰ뛄춽쏽컳ꆱ:쎿막펯샻돖탸짏짽믲쿂붵쪱춶헟믡죏캪짏짽믲쿂붵뗄뿕볤믡풽살풽킡,벴짏짽쟷쫆붫랴,폚쫇믡퓶잿싴돶믲싲뷸뗄쟣쿲,쿠뛔폚쎿막펯샻뗄헇뗸쪱볤뎤뛈,춶헟탐캪뇭쿖돶럇쿟탔맘쾵ꆣ놾컄붫틔막볛뗄뇤뚯캪듌벤뷸탐쪵퇩,퇐뺿룶죋춶헟퓚막볛솬탸헇뗸쪱뗄탄샭풤웚틔벰붻틗탐캪ꆣ놾컄뗄뗚뛾늿럖캪믹놾볙짨,뗚죽늿럖쫇쪵퇩랽램,뗚쯄늿럖캪쪵퇩뷡맻,뗚컥늿럖쫇볲뛌뷡싛ꆣ뛾ꆢ붻틗탐캪폫탄샭풤웚룹뻝ꆰ죈쫖킧펦ꆱ뫍ꆰ뛄춽쏽컳ꆱ헢솽훖웴랢쪽탄샭뗄ퟷ폃잿뛈폫쪱볤늻춬,컒쏇퓚막볛솬탸짏헇뫍솬탸쿂뗸뗄쟩뿶쿂,럖뇰쳖싛춶헟뗄늻춬붻틗탐캪벰폫횮쿠맘뗄탄샭풤웚ꆣ11막볛솬탸짏헇뗄붻틗탐캪(1)ꆰ죈쫖킧펦ꆱ폫ꆰ뛄춽쏽컳ꆱ릲춬ퟷ폃ꆣ죧춼1솢랽쳥ퟳ닠쏦짏뗄떹ꆰUꆱ탍쟺쿟3ꆰ,죈쫖킧펦ꆱ폫ꆰ뛄춽쏽컳ꆱ릲춬ퟷ폃,잿뛈붻쳦짏짽,싖쇷햼뻝훷떼뗘캻ꆣퟮ돵,쯦ퟅ막볛솬탸짏헇뗄쪱볤볓뎤,늻뛏퓶뎤뗄헽쏦쟷쫆떼훂ꆰ죈쫖킧펦ꆱ뗄ퟷ폃듳폚ꆰ뛄춽쏽컳ꆱ,햼뻝훷떼ퟷ폃,듓뛸쪹춶헟쟣쿲폚싲뷸막욱ꆣ퓚헢훖쟷쫆돖탸튻뛎쪱볤뫳,춶헟뿉쓜믡죏캪헢훖쟷쫆십짏뻍튪뷡쫸ꆰ,뛄춽쏽컳ꆱ뗄ퟷ폃풽살풽듳,뾪쪼뗖쿻ꆰ죈쫖킧펦ꆱ,쪹춶헟뗄싲뷸쟣춼1쿲짏짽훁맕뗣ꆣ죧맻막볛솬탸짏헇뗄쪱볤볌탸볓힢:퓂럝(짏헇):막볛솬탸짏헇뗄쪱볤뎤뛈(퓂);뎤,퓲ꆰ뛄춽쏽컳ꆱ뗄ퟷ폃뾪쪼뎬맽ꆰ죈쫖킧펦ꆱ,듓퓂럝(쿂붵):막볛솬탸쿂뗸뗄쪱볤뎤뛈(퓂);뛸쪹춶헟ퟷ돶폫잰웚쿠랴뗄탐캪,떼훂싲뷸쟣쿲싲뷸쟣쿲:막볛솬탸짏헇뗄쟩뿶쿂,춶헟싲뷸뗄쟣쿲;풽살풽킡ꆣ뛸싴돶쟣쿲퓲폫싲뷸쟣쿲쿠랴,쿠펦뗄싴돶쟣쿲:막볛솬탸쿂뗸뗄쟩뿶쿂,춶헟싴돶뗄쟣쿲ꆣ쟺쿟탎ힴ튲폫쟺쿟3쿠랴,캪뾪뿚쿲짏뗄ꆰUꆱ탍(캴ꆡ59
쇖ꆡ쫷뗈:춶헟ꆰ죈쫖킧펦ꆱ폫ꆰ뛄춽쏽컳ꆱ뗄탄샭쪵퇩퇐뺿뮭돶)ꆣ틲듋컒쏇볙짨퓚헢훖쟩뿶쿂,춶헟뗄싲뷸쟣쿲폫막볛솬탸짏헇쪱볤뎤뛈횮볤돊떹ꆰUꆱ탍맘쾵,벴퓚맕뗣횮잰,막욱뗄짏헇쪱볤풽뎤,춶헟풽쟣쿲폚싲뷸쯼;퓚맕뗣횮뫳,쯦ퟅ막볛솬탸짏헇뗄쪱볤퓶뎤,춶헟싲뷸뗄쟣쿲뇤킡ꆣ뛸싴돶쟣쿲폫막볛솬탸짏헇쪱볤뎤뛈횮볤돊ꆰUꆱ탍맘쾵,벴퓚맕뗣횮잰,막욱뗄짏헇쪱볤풽뎤,춶헟싴돶쟣쿲풽킡;퓚맕뗣횮뫳,쯦ퟅ막볛솬탸짏헇뗄쪱볤퓶뎤,춶헟싴돶뗄쟣쿲뇤듳ꆣ(2)ꆰ죈쫖킧펦ꆱퟷ폃잿폚ꆰ뛄춽쏽컳ꆱꆣ춼1솢랽쳥ퟳ닠쏦훐쿲폒짏랽쟣킱뗄횱쿟1뇭쪾퓚막볛솬헇뗄쟩뿶쿂ꆰ,죈쫖킧펦ꆱ뗄ퟷ폃튻횱잿폚ꆰ뛄춽쏽컳ꆱ,쟒쯦ퟅ솬탸짏헇뗄쪱볤볓뎤,헢훖ퟷ폃풽살풽듳ꆣ헢훖쿖쿳훷튪돶쿖퓚돖탸ꆰ얣쫐ꆱ뗄쪱뫲,막볛풽헇,릺싲쟣쿲풽듳ꆣ컒쏇볙짨퓚헢훖쟩뿶쿂,쯦ퟅ솬탸짏헇뗄쪱볤볓뎤,춶헟싲뷸뗄쟣쿲볓듳,뛸싴돶뗄쟣쿲뇤킡ꆣ(3)ꆰ뛄춽쏽컳ꆱퟷ폃잿폚ꆰ죈쫖킧펦ꆱꆣ춼1솢랽쳥ퟳ닠쏦훐쿲폒쿂랽쟣킱뗄횱쿟2뇭쪾,퓚막볛솬헇뗄쟩뿶쿂ꆰ뛄춽쏽컳ꆱ뗄ퟷ폃잿폚ꆰ죈쫖킧펦ꆱ,쟒쯦ퟅ막볛솬탸짏헇뗄쪱볤볓뎤,쯼뗄ퟷ폃풽살풽쏷쿔,막볛짏헇뗄쪱볤풽뎤,죋쏇풽쫇쟣쿲폚싴돶,벴ꆰ볻뫃뻍쫕ꆱꆣ컒쏇볙짨퓚헢훖쟩뿶쿂,쯦ퟅ솬헇뗄쪱볤볓뎤,춶헟싲뷸뗄쟣쿲뇤킡,뛸싴돶뗄쟣쿲볓듳ꆣ21막볛솬탸쿂뗸뗄붻틗탐캪(1)ꆰ죈쫖킧펦ꆱ폫ꆰ뛄춽쏽컳ꆱ릲춬ퟷ폃ꆣ죧춼1솢랽쳥폒닠쏦짏떹ꆰUꆱ탎뗄쟺쿟3ꆣ퓚맕뗣횮잰,쯦ퟅ막볛솬탸쿂뗸뗄쪱볤볓뎤,늻뛏퓶뎤뗄뢺쏦쟷쫆떼훂ꆰ죈쫖킧펦ꆱ뗄ퟷ폃듳폚ꆰ뛄춽쏽컳ꆱ,햼뻝훷떼ퟷ폃,듓뛸쪹춶헟싴돶막욱뗄쟣쿲볓듳ꆣ퓚헢훖쟷쫆돖탸튻뛎쪱볤뫳ꆰ,뛄춽쏽컳ꆱ뗄ퟷ폃훰붥퓶잿,뾪쪼뗖쿻ꆰ죈쫖킧펦ꆱ,쪹춶헟뗄싴돶쟣쿲짏짽훁맕뗣ꆣ죧맻막볛쿂뗸쪱볤볌탸볓뎤,벴뎬맽맕뗣횮뫳,퓲ꆰ뛄춽쏽컳ꆱ뗄ퟷ폃뾪쪼뎬맽ꆰ죈쫖킧펦ꆱ,듓뛸쪹춶헟ퟷ돶폫잰웚쿠랴뗄탐캪,떼훂싴돶쟣쿲풽살풽킡ꆣ뛸싲뷸쟣쿲폫싴돶쟣쿲쿠랴,뛔펦뗄쟺쿟탎ힴ폫쟺쿟3쿠랴,캪뾪뿚쿲짏뗄ꆰUꆱ탍(캴뮭돶)ꆣ틲듋,컒쏇볙짨퓚헢훖쟩뿶쿂,춶헟뗄싴돶쟣쿲폫막볛솬탸쿂뗸쪱볤뎤뛈횮볤돊떹ꆰUꆱ탍맘쾵,벴퓚맕뗣횮잰,막볛솬탸쿂뗸뗃풽뻃,춶헟싴돶뗄쟣쿲풽듳;퓚맕뗣횮뫳,솬탸쿂뗸뗄쪱볤풽뻃,춶헟싴돶뗄뿉쓜탔풽킡ꆣ뛸싲뷸쟣쿲폫막볛쿂뗸쪱볤뎤뛈횮볤퓲돊ꆰUꆱ탎맘쾵,벴퓚맕뗣횮잰,막볛솬탸쿂뗸뗃풽뻃,춶헟싲뷸뗄쟣쿲풽킡;퓚맕뗣횮뫳,솬탸쿂뗸뗄쪱볤풽뻃,춶헟싲뷸뗄쟣쿲풽듳ꆣ(2)ꆰ죈쫖킧펦ꆱퟷ폃잿폚ꆰ뛄춽쏽컳ꆱꆣ죧맻막볛솬탸쿂뗸쪱ꆰ,죈쫖킧펦ꆱ뗄ퟷ폃튻횱잿폚ꆰ뛄춽쏽컳ꆱ,퓲믡돶쿖솢랽쳥폒닠쏦훐횱쿟2뗄쟩탎,막볛풽뗸,죋쏇풽쟣쿲폚싴돶ꆣ헢훖쟩탎믡돶쿖퓚듳볒뛔뫳쫐늻퓙뾴뫃,럗럗횹쯰뗄쟩뿶쿂ꆣ틲듋,컒쏇볙짨듋쟩뿶쿂,쯦ퟅ막볛솬탸쿂뗸뗄쪱볤볓뎤,춶헟싴돶뗄쟣쿲볓듳,뛸싲뷸뗄쟣쿲뇤킡ꆣ(3)ꆰ뛄춽쏽컳ꆱퟷ폃잿폚ꆰ죈쫖킧펦ꆱꆣ죧맻막볛솬탸쿂뗸쪱ꆰ,뛄춽쏽컳ꆱ햼뻝훷떼뗘캻,쟒ퟷ폃튻횱잿폚ꆰ죈쫖킧펦ꆱ,뻍믡돶쿖폒닠쏦훐횱쿟3뗄쟩탎,막볛풽뗸,춶헟싲뷸쟣쿲풽듳ꆣ틲듋,컒쏇볙짨룃쟩뿶쿂,쯦ퟅ막볛솬탸쿂뗸뗄쪱볤볓뎤,춶헟싴돶뗄쟣쿲뇤킡,뛸싲뷸뗄쟣쿲볓듳ꆣ듋췢,춼1훐솢랽쳥ퟳ폒닠쏦짏뗄횱쿟4퓲쫇뇭쏷,컞싛쫇막볛솬탸짏헇뮹쫇솬탸쿂뗸,춶헟뗄릺싲쟣쿲뚼늻믡쯦ퟅ솬헇믲솬뗸뗄쪱볤뎤뛈뇤뮯,헢훖쟩뿶쿂뻍쫇막쫐쎻폐첫듳뗄컼틽솦쇋,춶헟풶샫막쫐,헢쪱뗄붻틗솿튲돖탸퓚뷏뗍뗄ힴ첬,막쫐튲퓚헢쪱돉캪쇋뇟풵쫂컯ꆣ죧맻뛔막볛솬헇믲솬뗸뗄탲쇐탅쾢,듦퓚ꆰ죈쫖킧펦ꆱ믲ꆰ뛄춽쏽컳ꆱ,퓲뿉쓜쫇틲캪춶헟뛔막볛뇤뚯뗄쯦믺쳘탔늢늻첫쇋뷢,뛸쫔춼좥풤닢막볛뗄캴살뇭쿖ꆣDeBondt(1991)튲잿뗷돽쇋뛌웚풤닢,죋쏇뫜쓑룹뻝샺쪷쟩뿶췢췆풤닢붫살ꆣ떫벴쪹헢퇹,죋쏇뮹쫇얬솦퓋폃웴랢쪽쮼캬좥풤닢캴살ꆣ믹폚ꆰ죈쫖킧펦ꆱ뫍ꆰ뛄춽쏽컳ꆱ,컒쏇붫춶헟뗄탄샭풤웚튲럖캪막볛솬탸짏헇폫솬탸쿂뗸솽훖쟩뿶쳖싛ꆣ31막볛솬헇뗄탄샭풤웚60
2006쓪뗚8웚(1)ꆰ죈쫖킧펦ꆱ폫ꆰ뛄춽쏽컳ꆱ릲춬ퟷ폃ꆣ헢훖쟩뿶쿂,컒쏇볙짨춶헟뛔막볛볌탸짏헇뗄풤웚폫막볛솬탸짏헇쪱볤뎤뛈횮볤돊떹ꆰUꆱ탍맘쾵,벴퓚맕뗣횮잰,막볛뗄짏헇쪱볤풽뎤,춶헟죏캪볌탸짏헇뗄뿉쓜탔퓶볓;떫퓚맕뗣횮뫳,쯦ퟅ막볛솬탸짏헇뗄쪱볤퓶뎤,춶헟믡뻵뗃볌탸짏헇뗄뿉쓜탔뇤킡ꆣ뛸춶헟뛔막볛쿂뗸뗄풤웚퓲폫솬탸짏헇쪱볤뎤뛈횮볤돊ꆰUꆱ탍맘쾵,벴퓚맕뗣횮잰,막욱뗄짏헇쪱볤풽뎤,춶헟죏캪쿂뗸뗄뿉쓜탔풽킡;떫퓚맕뗣횮뫳,쯦ퟅ막볛솬탸짏헇뗄쪱볤퓶뎤,춶헟죏캪쿂뗸뗄뿉쓜탔뇤듳ꆣ(2)ꆰ죈쫖킧펦ꆱퟷ폃잿폚ꆰ뛄춽쏽컳ꆱꆣ쯦ퟅ막볛솬탸짏헇쪱볤뗄볓뎤,춶헟풤웚쿂튻웚짏헇뗄뿉쓜탔풽살풽듳,풤웚쿂웚쿂뗸뗄뿉쓜탔퓲뇤킡ꆣ(3)ꆰ뛄춽쏽컳ꆱퟷ폃잿폚ꆰ죈쫖킧펦ꆱꆣ쯦ퟅ막볛솬탸짏헇뗄쪱볤볓뎤,춶헟풤웚쿂튻웚쿂뗸뗄뿉쓜탔풽살풽듳,풤웚쿂튻웚짏헇뗄뿉쓜탔퓲뇤킡ꆣ41막볛솬탸쿂뗸뗄탄샭풤웚(1)ꆰ죈쫖킧펦ꆱ폫ꆰ뛄춽쏽컳ꆱ릲춬ퟷ폃ꆣ헢훖쟩뿶쿂,컒쏇볙짨춶헟뛔막볛볌탸쿂뗸뗄풤웚폫막볛솬탸쿂뗸뗄쪱볤뎤뛈횮볤돊떹ꆰUꆱ탍맘쾵,벴퓚맕뗣횮잰,막욱뗄쿂뗸쪱볤풽뎤,춶헟죏캪볌탸쿂뗸뗄뿉쓜탔퓶볓;떫퓚맕뗣횮뫳,쯦ퟅ막볛솬탸쿂뗸뗄쪱볤퓶볓,춶헟믡뻵뗃볌탸쿂뗸뗄뿉쓜탔뇤킡ꆣ뛸춶헟뛔막볛짏헇뗄풤웚퓲폫솬탸쿂뗸쪱볤뎤뛈횮볤돊ꆰUꆱ탍맘쾵,벴퓚맕뗣횮잰,막욱뗄쿂뗸쪱볤풽뎤,춶헟죏캪짏헇뗄뿉쓜탔풽킡;떫퓚맕뗣횮뫳,쯦ퟅ막볛솬탸쿂뗸뗄쪱볤퓶볓,춶헟죏캪짏헇뗄뿉쓜탔뇤듳ꆣ(2)ꆰ죈쫖킧펦ꆱퟷ폃잿폚ꆰ뛄춽쏽컳ꆱꆣ쯦ퟅ막볛솬탸쿂뗸뗄쪱볤볓뎤,춶헟풤웚쿂튻웚볌탸쿂뗸뗄뿉쓜탔풽살풽듳,풤웚쿂튻웚짏헇뗄뿉쓜탔퓲뇤킡ꆣ(3)ꆰ뛄춽쏽컳ꆱퟷ폃잿폚ꆰ죈쫖킧펦ꆱꆣ쯦ퟅ막볛솬탸쿂뗸뗄쪱볤볓뎤,춶헟풤웚쿂튻웚짏헇뗄뿉쓜탔풽살풽듳,뛸풤웚쿂튻웚볌탸쿂뗸뗄뿉쓜탔퓲뇤킡ꆣ죽ꆢ퇐뺿랽램놾컄닉폃탄샭톧쪵퇩랽램뷸탐퇐뺿ꆣ폫뒫춳뗄뺭볃볆솿랽램퓋폃쫽뻝볬퇩볙짨폫뷸탐풤닢늻춬,쪵퇩랽램뿉틔퓚쪵퇩쫒훐횱뷓뿘훆웤쯻쿠맘뇤솿,틔듋뷒쪾틲뇤솿폫쒳샠ퟔ뇤솿횮볤뗄틲맻맘쾵ꆣ틲듋,컒쏇퓋폃탄샭톧쪵퇩랽램퇐뺿춶헟쏦뛔막볛솬탸헇뗸뗄탲쇐탅쾢뇤뮯쪱뗄붻틗탐캪폫탄샭풤웚ꆣ11놻쫔뛔쿳쪵퇩튻폫쪵퇩뛾뗄놻쫔퇹놾튻퇹,춬캪뢴떩듳톧맜샭톧풺릤짌맜샭쮶쪿톧풱,돉죋뷌폽톧풺믡볆톧ꆢ뺭볃맜샭튵톧풱,힢닡뷰죚럖컶쪦CFARꇰ엠통톧풱,릲285죋,ퟮ뫳뗃떽폐킧퇹놾135죋(쳞돽컞킧퇹놾랽램볻쪵퇩돌탲늿럖);웤훐쓐탔70죋,얮탔65죋,뻹캪퓚횰죋풱,늢살ퟔ늻춬탐튵,듓튵뺭퇩4ꆪ20쓪늻뗈ꆣ쯤좻쯻쏇늻쓜췪좫듺뇭쫐뎡훐쯹폐뗄룶죋춶헟,떫쯦ퟅ훐맺횤좯쫐뎡뗄랢햹,췪좫컞춶횪쪶뗄룶죋춶헟붫믡훰늽떭돶쫐뎡,웤춶뷰붫믡캯췐볒뷸탐맜샭ꆣ뛸쓜ퟔ훷뷸탐횤좯춶뗄룶죋춶헟붫쫇뻟놸튻뚨춶횪쪶폫쮮욽뗄춶헟,놾퇐뺿훐뗄퇹놾헽쫇듺뇭쇋헢늿럖죋믲헢늿럖잱퓚뗄춶헟ꆣ쯹폐놻쫔뻹캴닎볓맽폐맘쪵퇩,쓪쇤퓚22ꆪ50쯪ꆣ쪵61
쇖ꆡ쫷뗈:춶헟ꆰ죈쫖킧펦ꆱ폫ꆰ뛄춽쏽컳ꆱ뗄탄샭쪵퇩퇐뺿퇩쪱볤캪2005쓪1퓂훁4퓂볤,쪵퇩뫳놻쫔믱뗃볍쓮욷ퟷ캪닎폫쪵퇩뗄믘놨ꆣꋙ21쪵퇩짨볆쪵퇩튻닉폃4ꇁ2ꇁ2ꇁ2쯄틲쯘짨볆ꆣ쯄룶틲쯘캪:헇뗸탲쇐뎤뛈,럖캪솬탸3룶퓂,솬탸6룶퓂,솬탸9룶퓂,솬탸12룶퓂ꋚ;헇뗸틲쯘,럖캪솬탸짏헇폫솬탸쿂뗸;붻틗탐캪,럖캪싲뷸탐캪,싴돶탐캪;놻쫔탔뇰,럖캪쓐탔놻쫔뫍얮탔놻쫔ꆣ웤훐,헇뗸탲쇐뎤뛈ꆢ헇뗸틲쯘뫍붻틗탐캪캪ퟩ쓚뇤솿,놻쫔탔뇰캪ퟩ볤뇤솿ꆣ쪵퇩뛾닉폃4ꇁ2ꇁ2죽틲쯘짨볆ꆣ죽룶틲쯘캪:헇뗸탲쇐뎤뛈,럖캪솬탸3룶퓂,솬탸6룶퓂,솬탸9룶퓂,솬탸12룶퓂;헇뗸틲쯘,럖캪솬탸짏헇폫솬탸쿂뗸;놻쫔탔뇰,럖캪쓐탔놻쫔뫍얮탔놻쫔ꆣ웤훐,헇뗸탲쇐뎤뛈ꆢ헇뗸틲쯘,놻쫔탔뇰캪ퟩ볤뇤솿ꆣ쪵퇩튻폫쪵퇩뛾뻹닉폃횽뇊닢퇩탎쪽ꆣꋛ31쪵퇩쓚죝폫돌탲쪵퇩튻:쎿캻놻쫔탨튪쳮킴솽럝컊뻭,튻럝죃놻쫔뇭쏷뛔솽횧럖뇰솬탸짏헇폫솬탸쿂뗸뗄막욱뗄싲뷸쟣쿲,튻럝죃놻쫔뇭쏷뛔솽횧럖뇰솬탸짏헇폫솬탸쿂뗸뗄막욱뗄싴돶쟣쿲ꆣ쪵퇩잰룦쯟놻쫔헢쫇튻룶춶랽쏦뗄솷쾰,늻볇쏻늢쟒듰낸컞뛔듭횮럖ꆣ퓚튪쟳놻쫔톡퓱싲뷸막욱뗄쟩뿶훐,볙짨룕뗃떽틢췢뗄붱샸1췲풪,늢듲쯣붫헢뇊잮춶폚막쫐ꆣ춶맋컊췆볶쇋믹놾쟩뿶벸뫵췪좫쿠춬뗄솽횧막욱,돽쇋튻횧쫇솬헇쇋죴룉퓂,뛸쇭튻횧쫇솬뗸쇋죴룉퓂ꆣ춶헟뛔솬헇믲솬뗸막욱뗄릺싲쟣쿲평컥뗣솿뇭살뛈솿,듓좷뚨싲뷸솬헇막욱떽좷뚨싲뷸솬뗸막욱,훐볤뇭쪾릺싲쟣쿲쎻폐닮뇰ꆣ퓚컥뗣솿뇭횮뫳,컒쏇튪쟳놻쫔퓚솽횧막욱볤럖엤10000풪,싲죫쒳횧막욱쯹폃뗄뷰뇈샽ퟷ캪싲뷸헢횧막욱뗄쟣쿲,죧맻폫컥뗣솿뇭뗄뷡맻늻춬,퓲듋럝컊뻭퓚쪵퇩뫳폨틔쳞돽ꆣ듋췢,컒쏇뮹폃쪮뗣솿뇭살닢뚨놻쫔뛔막욱쫐뎡뗄쇋뷢돌뛈폫춶뺭퇩,죧맻놻쫔뛔막욱쫐뎡튻뗣뚼늻쇋뷢믲쎻폐춶뺭퇩,퓲컊뻭튲붫퓚쪵퇩뫳놻쳞돽ꆣ퓚튪쟳놻쫔톡퓱싴돶막욱뗄쟩뺳훐,볙짨쫖훐폐쫐횵4췲풪뗄막욱,쿖퓚탨튪쳗쿖1췲풪쿖뷰릺싲튻첨뗧쓔,퓚ힼ놸싴돶뗄막욱훐,춶맋컊췆볶쇋솽횧믹놾쟩뿶벸뫵췪좫쿠춬뗄막욱,돽쇋튻횧솬헇쇋죴룉퓂,뛸쇭튻횧솬뗸쇋죴룉퓂ꆣ춬퇹,컒쏇폃컥뗣솿뇭살뛈솿놻쫔뛔솬헇믲솬뗸막욱뗄싴돶쟣쿲ꆣ횮뫳튪쟳놻쫔믘듰캪쇋돯벯헢1췲풪쿖뷰,듲쯣퓚솽횧막욱짏룷싴돶뛠짙잮ꆣ싴돶쒳횧막욱쯹햼뷰뇈샽ퟷ캪싴돶쟣쿲,죧맻뷡맻폫컥뗣솿뇭늻춬,퓲듋컊뻭퓚쪵퇩뫳폨틔쳞돽ꆣ춬튻룶놻쫔믡뺭샺싲뷸뫍싴돶솽훖쟩뺰ꆣ솬헇믲솬뗸뗄쪱볤뎤뛈럖캪3룶퓂ꆢ6룶퓂ꆢ9룶퓂뫍12룶퓂쯄ퟩꆣ솽럝컊뻭뻹럖캪솬탸짏헇믲쿂뗸3룶퓂,6룶퓂,9룶퓂뫍12룶퓂ꆣ쪵퇩뛾:쎿캻놻쫔믘듰솽룶컊쳢,튻룶컊쳢쫇죃놻쫔풤닢솬탸짏헇뗄막욱퓚쿂룶퓂짏헇폫쿂뗸뗄룅싊,뗚뛾룶컊쳢쫇죃놻쫔풤닢솬탸쿂뗸뗄막욱퓚쿂튻룶퓂쿂뗸폫짏헇뗄룅싊ꆣ퓚햹쪾쇋솬헇ꋙ탄샭톧쪵퇩폫쪵퇩뺭볃톧뗄쪵퇩폐ퟅ닮뇰ꆣ뗚튻,쪵퇩뺭볃톧뗄컄쿗훐뺭뎣믡폐쿠떱뗄욪럹쳖싛쪵퇩쫇퓵쎴짨볆벤샸뗄ꆣ틲캪쯻쏇뺭뎣퇐뺿놻쫔쫇퓵쎴뛔룅싊쫂볾ퟷ돶에뛏,늢뺭뎣붫놻쫔뗄에뛏뷡맻폫쒳튻쫽횵뷸탐뇈뷏,룹뻝뇈뷏뷡맻룸폨늻춬붱샸,틔쪹놻쫔퓚뷸탐에뛏뗄쮼캬맽돌훐뻍쿫떽ퟔ벺뗄뷡맻폫쒳튻쫽횵뗄뿉쓜닮뻠ꆣ놾퇐뺿뗄탄샭톧쪵퇩횻쫇튪쟳놻쫔뛔폚막볛솬탸헇뗸뗄탲쇐탅쾢ퟷ돶랴펦,쫂쿈틑룦쯟웤늢컞뛔듭,튲뻍쫇쎻폐짨훃뇈뷏뇪ힼ,훷튪쫇뾴탲쇐탅쾢뗄뎤뛌뛔놻쫔탐캪뗄펰쿬,뛸늢늻붫웤탐캪폫쒳튻뇪ힼ믲쫽횵뷸탐뇈뷏ꆣ뗚뛾,탄샭톧랽쏦뗄퇐뺿컄쿗,돽럇쏅퇐뺿벤샸컊쳢믲랽램싛컊쳢,튻냣늻믡뛔폚쪵퇩훐퓵퇹벤샸놻쫔룸폨맽뛠맘힢ꆣ퇐뺿컄쿗(죧Tversky&Kahneman,1992;Camerer,1989)횸돶,뛔놻쫔뗄벤샸듳킡늢늻믡쿔훸펰쿬쪵퇩뷡맻ꆣ탄샭톧쪵퇩튻냣믡퓚퇐뺿횮잰짆틢뗘ꆰ틾싷ꆱ쪵퇩헦쪵쒿뗄,뛸퓚뷡쫸뫳룦쯟놻쫔쪵퇩쒿뗄(떱좻쪵퇩놾짭늻쓜룸닎폫헟듸살짭탄짋몦),늢룸폨닎폫헟짙솿뷰잮믲볍쓮욷ퟷ캪햼폃웤쪱볤뗄믘놨,컒쏇퓲틔룸폨볍쓮욷뗄랽쪽ퟷ캪믘놨ꆣꋚ컒쏇죏캪,톡퓱3ꆢ6ꆢ9ꆢ12퓂쯄룶욵싊믹놾짏냼몭쇋훐뛌웚뗄쪱볤뎤뛈ꆣ맺쓚췢틑폐컄쿗퓋폃쫐뎡붻틗쫽뻝뛔훐뛌웚뚯솿폫랴킧펦뗄볬퇩튲듳뛠톡폃3ꆢ6ꆢ9ꆢ12룶퓂(죧Jegadeesh&Titman,1993),틲뛸컒쏇닅헢퇹톡퓱뗄ꆣ퓚틔뫳뷸튻늽뗄퇐뺿훐컒쏇믡뾼싇쫇럱붫욵싊룼볓쾸뮯ꆣ퓚듋컒쏇룐킻쓤쏻짳룥죋뛔폚헢룶컊쳢뗄붨틩ꆣꋛ죧맻뛁헟폐탋좤,뿉쿲ퟷ헟쯷튪쪵퇩폃컊뻭ꆣ62
2006쓪뗚8웚폫솬뗸뗄솽횧막욱뗄볛룱뇤뮯뫳,튪쟳뇤뮯럖뇰풤닢솬헇폫솬뗸뗄막욱퓚쿂튻룶퓂뗄볛룱쫇짏헇뮹쫇쿂뗸ꆣ쫗쿈튪쟳놻쫔퓚컥뗣솿뇭훐톡퓱막욱쿂튻룶퓂뗄헇뗸뿉쓜탔,듓ꆰ뿏뚨짏헇ꆱ떽ꆰ뿏뚨쿂뗸ꆱ,좻뫳퓙튪쟳놻쫔퓚솽룶쪮뗣솿뇭훐럖뇰뇪돶짏헇폫쿂뗸뗄룅싊(듓0%떽100%),죧맻놻쫔퓚쪮뗣솿뇭훐뇭쿖뗄쟣쿲폫컥뗣솿뇭늻춬,퓲룃럝컊뻭퓚쪵퇩뫳쳞돽ꆣ솬헇믲솬뗸뗄쪱볤뎤뛈럖캪3룶퓂ꆢ6룶퓂ꆢ9룶퓂뫍12룶퓂쯄ퟩꆣ쪵퇩뛾뗄컊쳢폫쪵퇩튻뗄컊쳢퓚춬튻컊뻭짏,떫쮳탲퓚쪵퇩튻횮뫳ꆣ캪쇋볬퇩막볛돖탸헇뗸뗄쪱볤뎤뛈쫇퓵퇹펰쿬춶헟뛔막욱뗄붻틗탐캪,평쪵퇩튻뗃떽뗄쫽뻝뛔몬폐뛾듎쿮뗄믘맩랽돌(1)뗄쾵쫽뷸탐볬퇩,뾼달춶헟싲뷸믲싴돶솬헇믲솬뗸막욱뗄탐캪쟣쿲폫막볛솬헇(뗸)뗄쪱볤뎤뛈(퓂)횮볤뗄맘쾵럻뫏춼1훐쓄훖쟺쿟탎ힴ,쫇럱듦퓚ꆰUꆱ탍믲떹ꆰUꆱ탍뗄맘쾵ꆣPi=ꛁ+ꛂ1month+ꛂ2m2onth+ꚲꛂiXi+ꛅ(i1)웤훐,Pi캪막볛솬헇폫솬뗸쟩뿶쿂싲뷸폫싴돶뗄쟣쿲(틔룅싊뇭쪾,퓚0ꆪ1횮볤);month캪솬헇믲솬뗸뗄쪱볤뎤뛈(퓂2);month캪쪱볤뎤뛈뗄욽랽,벴뛾듎쿮;Xi캪웤쯻놻쫔뇤솿,죧쓪쇤(쪵볊쓪쇤)ꆢ탔뇰(퇆뇤솿,얮탔캪0,쓐탔캪1)ꆢ뛔막쫐쇋뷢돌뛈(횪쪶)ꆢ춶뺭퇩(닉폃쪮뗣솿뇭닢솿)ꛅ;i캪컳닮쿮ꆣ퓚막볛솬탸짏헇뗄쟩뿶쿂,죧맻ꆰ죈쫖킧펦ꆱ폫ꆰ뛄춽쏽컳ꆱ릲춬ퟷ폃,춶헟싲뷸쟣쿲폫막볛솬탸짏헇쪱볤뎤뛈뗄맘쾵돉캪떹ꆰUꆱ탍쟺쿟,퓲퓚랽돌(1)훐ꛂ,2<0,뛸싴돶탐캪폫막볛솬탸짏헇쪱볤뎤뛈펦돉ꆰUꆱ탍맘쾵,퓲퓚랽돌(1)훐ꛂ,2>0;죧맻ꆰ죈쫖킧펦ꆱ튻횱햼뻝훷떼ퟷ폃,춶헟뗄싲뷸탐캪쟣쿲쯦ퟅ막볛뗄짏헇쪱볤볓뎤뛸퓶듳,퓲랽돌(1)훐뗄ꛂ1>0,싴돶탐캪쟣쿲폫막볛솬탸짏헇쪱볤돉랴뇈ꛂ,1<0;죧맻ꆰ뛄춽쏽컳ꆱ튻횱웰훷튪ퟷ폃,춶헟뗄싲뷸쟣쿲쯦ퟅ막볛솬탸짏헇뗄쪱볤볓뎤뛸뇤킡,랽돌(1)훐뗄ꛂ1<0,싴돶탐캪쟣쿲폫막볛솬탸짏헇뗄쪱볤뎤뛈돉헽뇈ꛂ,1>0ꆣ퓚막볛솬뗸뗄쟩뿶쿂,죧맻ꆰ죈쫖킧펦ꆱ폫ꆰ뛄춽쏽컳ꆱ릲춬ퟷ폃,춶헟싴돶쟣쿲폫막볛솬탸쿂뗸쪱볤뎤뛈뗄맘쾵뻍믡쫇떹ꆰUꆱ탍쟺쿟,퓲퓚랽돌(1)훐ꛂ,2<0,뛸싲뷸탐캪폫막볛솬탸쿂뗸쪱볤뎤뛈펦돉ꆰUꆱ탍맘쾵,퓲퓚랽돌(1)훐ꛂ,2>0;죧맻ꆰ죈쫖킧펦ꆱ튻횱햼뻝훷떼ퟷ폃,춶헟뗄싴돶탐캪쟣쿲쯦ퟅ막볛뗄쿂뗸쪱볤볓뎤뛸퓶듳,퓲랽돌(1)훐뗄ꛂ1>0,싲뷸탐캪쟣쿲폫막볛솬탸쿂뗸쪱볤돉랴뇈ꛂ,1<0;죧맻ꆰ뛄춽쏽컳ꆱ튻횱웰훷튪ퟷ폃,춶헟뗄싴돶쟣쿲쯦ퟅ막볛솬탸쿂뗸뗄쪱볤볓뎤뛸뇤킡,랽돌(1)훐뗄ꛂ1<0,싲뷸탐캪쟣쿲폫막볛솬탸쿂뗸뗄쪱볤뎤뛈돉헽뇈ꛂ,1>0ꆣ죧맻춶헟뗄붻틗탐캪쟣쿲늻쯦ퟅ막볛솬탸짏헇믲쿂뗸뗄쪱볤뎤뛈뇤뮯,퓲랽돌(1)훐뗄ꛂ1뫍ꛂ2뗄횵뚼늻믡쿔훸틬폚쇣ꆣ캪쇋볬퇩막볛솬탸짏헇폫쿂뗸뗄쪱볤뎤뛈퓵퇹펰쿬춶헟뛔폚쿂튻웚막볛뇤뚯뗄풤웚,평쪵퇩뛾뗄뷡맻뛔몬폐뛾듎쿮뗄믘맩랽돌(2)뗄쾵쫽뷸탐볬퇩,뾼달춶헟뛔쿂튻웚헇뗸뿉쓜탔뗄풤닢폫쪱볤뎤뛈쫇럱듦퓚ꆰUꆱ탍믲떹ꆰUꆱ탍맘쾵ꆣPi=ꛁ+ꛂ1m2onth+ꛂ2month+ꚲꛂiXi+ꛅ(i2)웤훐,Pi캪솬헇폫솬뗸쟩뿶쿂춶헟뛔쿂튻웚헇뗸뿉쓜탔뗄풤닢(틔룅싊뇭쪾,퓚0ꆪ1횮볤),m2onth,month,Xꛅi,i폫랽돌(1)훐쿠춬ꆣ퓚막볛솬헇뗄쟩뿶쿂,죧맻ꆰ죈쫖킧펦ꆱ폫ꆰ뛄춽쏽컳ꆱ릲춬ퟷ폃,춶헟풤닢쿂튻웚볌탸짏헇뗄뿉쓜탔폫쪱볤뎤뛈펦돉떹ꆰUꆱ탍맘쾵,퓲퓚랽돌(2)훐ꛂ,2<0,뛸풤닢쿂튻웚볌탸쿂뗸뗄뿉쓜탔폫쪱볤뎤뛈펦돉ꆰUꆱ탍맘쾵,퓲퓚랽돌(2)훐ꛂ,2>0;죧맻ꆰ죈쫖킧펦ꆱ튻횱햼뻝훷떼ퟷ폃,춶헟풤웚쿂튻웚막볛볌탸짏헇뗄뿉쓜탔쯦ퟅ막볛뗄짏헇쪱볤볓뎤뛸퓶듳,퓲랽돌(2)훐뗄ꛂ1>0,풤웚쿂튻웚63
쇖ꆡ쫷뗈:춶헟ꆰ죈쫖킧펦ꆱ폫ꆰ뛄춽쏽컳ꆱ뗄탄샭쪵퇩퇐뺿막볛쿂뗸뗄뿉쓜탔폫막볛솬탸짏ꆡ뇭1ꆡ늻춬쟩뿶쿂뗄돖폐쪱볤ꆢ싲싴쟣쿲틔벰뛔막볛뗄풤닢헇쪱볤돉랴뇈ꛂ,1<0;죧맻ꆰ뛄춽A삸:룷훖쟩뿶쿂뗄돖폐쪱볤쏽컳ꆱ튻횱웰훷튪ퟷ폃,퓲춶헟풤웚쿂튻웚막볛볌탸짏헇뗄뿉쓜퓂쫽돖폐짏헇(MꇀSD)돖폐쿂뗸(MꇀSD)T볬퇩P횵탔쯦ퟅ막볛솬탸짏헇뗄쪱볤볓뎤ꇀꇀ뛸뇤킡ꇀꇀ,랽돌(2)훐뗄ꛂ1<0,풤웚쿂튻웚막볛쿂뗸뗄뿉쓜탔폫막볛ꇀꇀ솬탸짏헇뗄쪱볤뎤뛈돉헽뇈ꛂ,ꇀꇀ>0ꆣꇀ.ꇀ.퓚막볛솬뗸뗄쟩뿶쿂,죧맻B삸:막볛솬헇쟩뿶쿂싲싴쟣쿲ꆰ죈쫖킧펦ꆱ폫ꆰ뛄춽쏽컳ꆱ릲춬ퟷ솬헇퓂쫽싲헇쟣쿲(MꇀSD)싴헇쟣쿲(MꇀSD)폃,춶헟풤닢쿂튻웚볌탸짏헇뗄뿉쓜탔폫쪱볤뎤뛈펦돉ꆰUꆱ탍ꇀꇀ맘쾵ꇀꇀ,퓲퓚랽돌(2)훐ꛂ,2>0,뛸풤닢쿂튻웚볌탸쿂뗸뗄뿉쓜탔폫ꇀꇀ쪱볤뎤뛈펦돉떹ꆰUꆱ탍맘쾵ꇀꇀ,퓲퓚랽돌(2)훐ꛂ,2<0;죧맻ꆰ죈쫖C삸:막볛솬뗸쟩뿶쿂뗄싲싴쟣쿲킧펦ꆱ튻횱햼훷떼ퟷ폃,춶헟풤솬뗸퓂쫽싲뗸쟣쿲(MꇀSD)싴뗸쟣쿲(MꇀSD)웚쿂튻웚막볛볌탸쿂뗸뗄뿉쓜탔ꇀꇀ쯦ퟅ막볛뗄쿂뗸쪱볤볓뎤뛸퓶ꇀꇀ듳,퓲랽돌(2)훐뗄ꛂ1>0,풤웚쿂튻웚막볛짏헇뗄뿉쓜탔폫막볛솬ꇀꇀ탸쿂뗸쪱볤돉랴뇈ꛂꇀꇀ,1<0;죧맻ꆰ뛄춽쏽컳ꆱ튻횱웰훷튪ퟷ폃,퓲D삸:쪵퇩뛾막볛솬헇쟩뿶쿂뛔쿂웚헇뗸룅싊뗄풤닢춶헟풤웚쿂튻웚막볛볌탸쿂뗸솬헇퓂쫽헇뫳풤헇(MꇀSD)헇뫳풤뗸(MꇀSD)뗄뿉쓜탔쯦ퟅ막볛솬탸쿂뗸뗄쪱ꇀꇀ볤볓뎤뛸뇤킡,랽돌(2)훐뗄ꛂ1<ꇀꇀ,풤웚쿂튻웚막볛짏헇뗄뿉쓜탔ꇀꇀ폫막볛솬탸쿂뗸뗄쪱볤뎤뛈돉헽ꇀꇀ뇈ꛂ,1>0ꆣ죧맻춶헟뗄풤웚늻쯦ퟅ막E삸:쪵퇩뛾막볛솬뗸쟩뿶쿂뛔쿂웚헇뗸룅싊뗄풤닢볛솬탸짏헇믲쿂뗸뗄쪱볤뎤뛈뇤솬뗸퓂쫽뗸뫳풤헇(MꇀSD)뗸뫳풤뗸(MꇀSD)뮯ꇀꇀ,퓲랽돌(2)훐뗄ꛂ1뫍ꛂ2뗄횵뚼늻믡쿔훸틬폚쇣ꆣꇀꇀ쯄ꆢ쪵퇩뷡맻ꇀꇀꇀꇀ쏨쫶탔춳볆뷡맻ꆡꆡ힢:M캪욽뻹쫽,SD캪뇪ힼ닮ꆣ룷쿮쒿몬틥폫뇭1뫍뇭2쿠춬ꆣ쪵퇩훐룷ퟩ놻쫔죋쫽,탔뇰폫죋쫽믹놾욽뫢ꆣ놻쫔쓪쇤퓚21ꆪ50쯪횮볤,욽뻹쓪쇤캪2815쯪ꆣ놻쫔뛔막쫐쇋뷢돌뛈폫춶뺭퇩뿧뛈뫜듳,욽뻹횵뻹늻떽5ꆣ컞싛퓚막볛솬헇뮹쫇솬뗸뗄쟩뿶,놻쫔듲쯣뗄돖폐웚뻹뫜뛌(219룶퓂뫍517룶64
2006쓪뗚8웚뇭2쪵퇩튻믘맩뷡맻싲헇쟣쿲싴헇쟣쿲싲뗸쟣쿲싴뗸쟣쿲쒣탍튻쒣탍뛾쒣탍죽쒣탍튻쒣탍뛾쒣탍죽쒣탍튻쒣탍뛾쒣탍죽쒣탍튻쒣탍뛾쒣탍죽뷘뻠쿮()()()()()()()()()()()()퓂쫽()()()()()()()()()()()()퓂쫽()()()()쓪쇤()()()()탔뇰()()()()횪쪶()()()()춶뺭퇩()()()()F볬퇩뗷헻ꆡꆡ힢:맛달횵:135;33쿔훸탔쮮욽:0101;3쿔훸탔쮮욽:0105;삨뫅훐캪t횵;룷쿮쒿몬틥폫잰뇭쿠춬ꆣ뇭3쪵퇩뛾믘맩뷡맻헇뫳풤헇헇뫳풤뗸뗸뫳풤헇뗸뫳풤뗸쒣탍튻쒣탍뛾쒣탍죽쒣탍튻쒣탍뛾쒣탍죽쒣탍튻쒣탍뛾쒣탍죽쒣탍튻쒣탍뛾쒣탍죽뷘뻠쿮ꆡ()()()()()()()()()()()()퓂쫽()()()()()()()()()()()()퓂쫽()()()()쓪쇤()()()()탔뇰()()()()횪쪶()()()()춶뺭퇩()()()()F볬퇩ꆡꆡ뗷헻ꆡꆡ힢:맛달횵:135;33쿔훸탔쮮욽:0101;3쿔훸탔쮮욽:0105;삨뫅훐캪t횵;룷쿮쒿몬틥폫잰뇭쿠춬ꆣ65
쇖ꆡ쫷뗈:춶헟ꆰ죈쫖킧펦ꆱ폫ꆰ뛄춽쏽컳ꆱ뗄탄샭쪵퇩퇐뺿퓂),헢튲퇩횤쇋훐맺춶헟쾲뫃뛌쿟닙ퟷ뗄펡쿳(쇵믔뗈,2003)ꆣ21쿠맘쾵쫽쟩뿶퓚돖탸짏헇뗄쟩뿶쿂,퓂럝풽뎤,싲뷸뗄뿉쓜탔풽킡,돊쿔훸뗄뢺쿠맘;뛸싴돶뗄뿉쓜탔풽듳,돊쿔훸뗄헽쿠맘ꆣ춶헟뛔쿂튻웚볌탸짏헇뗄냑컕폫짏헇뗄쪱볤뎤뛈돉쿔훸뗄뢺쿠맘,뛸풤닢쿂튻웚랢짺쿂뗸뗄뿉쓜탔폫짏헇뗄쪱볤뎤뛈돉쿔훸뗄헽쿠맘ꆣ싴돶뗄뿉쓜탔폫춶헟뛔막욱쫐뎡뗄쇋뷢돌뛈ꆢ춶뺭퇩돊쿔훸뗄뢺쿠맘,틢캶ퟅ쇋뷢돌뛈풽룟ꆢ뺭퇩풽럡뢻,싴돶뗄뿉쓜탔풽킡ꆣ막쫐쇋뷢돌뛈폫뺭퇩ꆢ쓪쇤뻹돊쿔훸헽쿠맘,뺭퇩폫쓪쇤튲돊쿔훸헽쿠맘ꆣ퓚솬탸쿂뗸뗄쟩뿶훐,쿂뗸뗄퓂럝풽뎤,싲뷸뗄뿉쓜탔풽듳,돊쿔훸뗄헽쿠맘;뛸싴돶뗄뿉쓜탔풽킡,돊쿔훸뗄뢺쿠맘ꆣ춶헟풤닢쿂튻웚볌탸쿂뗸뗄뿉쓜탔폫솬뗸쪱볤뎤뛈돉쿔훸뗄뢺쿠맘,뛸풤닢쿂튻웚짏헇뗄뿉쓜탔폫솬뗸쪱볤뎤뛈퓲돉쿔훸뗄헽쿠맘ꆣ싴돶솬탸쿂뗸막욱뗄뿉쓜탔폫막쫐쇋뷢돌뛈ꆢ뺭퇩뻹돊쿔훸뗄헽쿠맘ꆣ횪쪶폫뺭퇩ꆢ쓪쇤쿔훸헽쿠맘,뺭퇩폫쓪쇤튲쿔훸헽쿠맘,헢폫솬탸짏헇뗄쟩뿶튻퇹ꆣ퓚탔뇰닮틬랽쏦,쓐탔퓚싴돶쟣쿲ꆢ횪쪶ꆢ뺭퇩짏뚼쿔훸룟폚얮탔ꆣ31돖폐쪱볤ꆢ싲싴쟣쿲벰막볛풤닢듓뇭1뗄A삸훐,컒쏇뾴떽춶헟퓚막볛솬헇폫솬뗸뗄쟩뿶쿂쯹풸틢돖폐뗄쪱볤짏뇭쿖돶폐좤뗄뷡맻ꆣ컞싛퓚뛠뎤뗄쪱볤뛎샯,춶헟퓚솬뗸뗄쟩뿶쿂돖폐막욱뗄쪱볤뚼튪쿔훸뎤폚돖폐솬헇막욱뗄쪱볤ꆣ헢튲퇩횤쇋퓚훐맺춶헟훐뗄듦퓚쿔훸뗄ꆰ뒦훃킧펦ꆱ(dispositioneffect)(Shefrin&Statman,1985)ꆣB삸뫍C삸뇭쏷,막볛솬탸짏헇뗄쟩뿶쿂,춶헟뗄싲뷸쟣쿲쯦ퟅ짏헇쪱볤뗄볓뎤풽살풽킡;뛸춶헟뗄싴돶쟣쿲폫솬탸짏헇쪱볤쯆뫵듦퓚떹ꆰUꆱퟖ탍맘쾵ꆣ헢훖럇쿟탔맘쾵쫇럱듦퓚,뮹튪뾴믘맩훐뛔솬탸짏헇퓂럝뗄뛾듎쿮뗄볬퇩ꆣ퓚막볛솬탸쿂뗸뗄쟩뿶쿂,춶헟뗄싲뷸쟣쿲쯦ퟅ쪱볤뗄볓뎤뛸풽살풽듳,뛸싴돶뗄쟣쿲폫솬탸쿂뗸뗄퓂럝쯆뫵돊ꆰUꆱ탍뗄맘쾵,춬퇹헢훖럇쿟탔맘쾵쫇럱헦뗄듦퓚튲튪뾴믘맩훐뛔뛾듎쿮뗄볬퇩ꆣ퓚D삸뫍E삸훐,퓚막볛솬헇쟩뿶쿂,뛔풤닢쿂튻웚볌탸짏헇뗄뿉쓜탔돊ퟜ쳥뗄쿂붵쟷쫆,뛸죏캪쿂튻웚막볛믡쿂뗸뗄뿉쓜탔퓲ퟜ쳥짏돊짏짽쟷쫆ꆣ퓚막볛솬뗸뗄쟩뿶쿂,춶헟풤닢쿂튻웚볌탸쿂뗸뗄뿉쓜탔ퟜ쳥짏돊쿂붵쟷쫆,뛸풤닢쿂튻웚짏헇뗄뿉쓜탔ퟜ쳥짏돊짏짽쟷쫆,떫쫇럱폐ꆰUꆱ탍맘쾵,뮹탨튪뾴(2)쪽뗄믘맩뛾듎쿮쾵쫽뗄쿔훸탔볬퇩쫇럱뇭쏷럇쿟탔맘쾵뗄듦퓚ꆣ41쪵퇩믘맩뷡맻듓뇭2(1)쪽뗄볬퇩뷡맻뾴,퓚막볛솬헇뗄쟩뿶쿂,싲뷸폫싴돶뗄쟣쿲폫쪱볤뎤뛈횮볤뗄ꆰUꆱ탍믲떹ꆰUꆱ탍맘쾵늢늻듦퓚,틲캪뛾듎쿮(m2onth)뗄쾵쫽늢늻쿔훸뗘틬폚쇣ꆣ뛸쪱볤뎤뛈뗄튻듎쿮(month)쾵쫽퓚싲뷸쪱쿔훸캪뢺,싴돶쪱쿔훸캪헽,벴쪹뿘훆쇋놻쫔뗄쓪쇤ꆢ탔뇰ꆢ횪쪶폫뺭퇩뇤솿뫳,헢룶맘쾵죔좻쿔훸ꆣ퓚막볛솬뗸뗄쟩뿶쿂,춬퇹싲뷸폫싴돶뗄쟣쿲폫쪱볤뎤뛈횮볤뗄ꆰUꆱ탍믲떹ꆰUꆱ탍맘쾵늢늻듦퓚ꆣ뛸쪱볤뎤뛈뗄튻듎쿮(month)쾵쫽퓚싲뷸쪱쿔훸캪헽,싴돶쪱쿔훸캪뢺,뿘훆쇋놻쫔웤쯻뇤솿뫳,헢룶맘쾵죔좻쿔훸ꆣ듓뇭3뛔(2)쪽뗄볬퇩뷡맻살뾴,퓚막볛솬헇뗄쟩뿶쿂,춶헟풤닢쿂튻웚짏헇믲쿂뗸뗄뿉쓜탔폫쪱볤뎤뛈횮볤뗄ꆰUꆱ탍믲떹ꆰUꆱ탍뗄럇쿟탔맘쾵뻹늻듦퓚ꆣ뛸풤닢쿂튻웚볌탸짏헇뗄뿉쓜탔쪱,쪱볤뎤뛈뗄튻듎쿮(month)뗄쾵쫽쿔훸캪뢺,풤닢쿂튻웚쿂뗸뗄뿉쓜탔쪱튻듎쿮쾵쫽퓲쿔훸캪헽,벴쪹뿘훆쇋웤쯻놻쫔뇤솿쿟탔맘쾵죔좻쿔훸돉솢ꆣ퓚막볛솬뗸뗄쟩뿶쿂,춶헟풤닢쿂튻웚짏헇믲쿂뗸뗄뿉쓜탔폫쪱볤뎤뛈횮볤뗄ꆰUꆱ탍믲떹ꆰUꆱ탍뗄럇쿟탔맘쾵춬퇹뻹늻듦퓚ꆣ뛸풤닢쿂튻웚짏헇뗄뿉쓜탔쪱,쪱볤뎤뛈뗄튻듎쿮(month)뗄쾵쫽쿔훸캪헽,풤닢쿂튻웚쿂뗸뗄뿉쓜탔쪱,튻듎쿮쾵쫽쿔훸캪뢺,횻쫇퓚뿘훆쇋웤쯻놻쫔뇤솿뫳,튻듎쿮쾵쫽쿔훸탔싔캪붵뗍,P횵캪01055,헢늻펰쿬ퟜ쳥뷡싛ꆣ66
2006쓪뗚8웚컥ꆢ뷡싛폫쳖싛쪵퇩튻뗄쒿뗄쫇볬퇩춶헟퓚쏦뛔막볛솬탸헇뗸뗄탲쇐탅쾢쪱,춶헟뗄붻틗탐캪럻뫏춼1폫춼2훐쓄훖쟺쿟탎ힴ,쫇럱폫뺭뗤볙짨뗄쟩뿶튻훂ꆣ쪵퇩뛾뗄쒿뗄퓲쫇퇐뺿퓚막볛솬탸헇뗸뗄쟩뿶쿂,춶헟뛔폚막볛쿂튻웚짏헇뮹쫇쿂뗸뗄뿉쓜풤닢ꆣ쯤좻컒쏇볙짨퓚쏦뛔막볛솬탸헇뗸탲쇐탅쾢쪱,춶헟춬쪱듦퓚ퟅꆰ죈쫖킧펦ꆱ폫ꆰ뛄춽쏽컳ꆱ솽훖웴랢쪽탄샭늢붻쳦햼훷떼ퟷ폃,떫쫇평쪵퇩튻폫쪵퇩뛾뗄뷡맻ퟛ뫏웰살뾴,헢훖뺭뗤볙짨뗄럇쿟탔맘쾵늢늻듦퓚,쟒뚼튻훂뗘횤쪵쇋춶헟뛔탲쇐탅쾢뷸탐볓릤쪱ꆰ뛄춽쏽컳ꆱ뗄ퟷ폃쪼훕잿폚ꆰ죈쫖킧펦ꆱ,햼뻝폅쫆뗘캻;늢쟒쯦ퟅ솬탸헇뗸뗄쪱볤볓뎤,헢훖훷떼ퟷ폃풽살풽잿ꆣ헢틢캶ퟅ,퓚쏦뛔막볛솬탸헇뗸뗄쟩뿶쪱,춶헟뛔탲쇐탅쾢뗄볓릤훐ꆰ뛄춽쏽컳ꆱ킧펦튻횱햼뻝훷떼ퟷ폃,틲캪춶헟쿠탅막볛믡돶쿖랴,솬탸짏헇믲쿂뗸뗄쪱볤풽뎤,춶헟죏캪막볛퓚쿂튻웚쿂뗸믲짏헇뗄뿉쓜탔풽듳,뛸헢훖뿉쓜탔믡쯦ퟅ솬탸헇뗸뗄쪱볤볓뎤뛸뇤잿ꆣ헽쫇헢훖랴뗄풤웚퓬돉쇋퓚쪵퇩튻훐춶헟퓚막볛솬탸짏헇뗄쟩뿶쿂,쪱볤풽뎤,풽뿉쓜믡싴돶,풽늻뿉쓜싲뷸;뛸퓚막볛솬탸쿂뗸뗄쟩뿶쿂,퓲쪱볤풽뎤,싲뷸뗄쟣쿲풽듳,싴돶뗄뿉쓜탔풽킡ꆣ맘폚캪쪲쎴ꆰ뛄춽쏽컳ꆱ믡웰훷튪ퟷ폃,Ayton뫍Fischer(2004)뗄퇐뺿튲탭뿉틔뷢쫍,쯻쏇죏캪ꆰ죈쫖킧펦ꆱ듳뛠돶쿖퓚뛔ꆰ죋쯹쓜벰ꆱ뗄탲쇐탅쾢에뛏쪱,뛸ꆰ뛄춽쏽컳ꆱ퓲뛠돶쿖퓚뛔ꆰ뿍맛ꆱ랢짺뗄탲쇐탅쾢랴펦쪱ꆣ틲캪막볛헇뗸뗄탲쇐탅쾢뿉쓜퓚룶쳥춶헟뾴살쫇ꆰ뿍맛ꆱ뗄,ퟔ짭컞램펰쿬뗄,듓뛸룼죝틗돶쿖ꆰ뛄춽쏽컳ꆱ킧펦ꆣꋙ헢훖쿖쿳튲폫훐맺춶헟뒦훃킧펦뗄퇐뺿쿠쯆(헔톧뻼ꆢ췵폀뫪,2001),춶헟퓚막볛짏헇쪱,벱폚엗돶막욱,쪵쿖놾퓶횵;막볛쿂뗸쪱,퓲늻믡벰쪱횹쯰,뛸쫇볌탸돖폐,뇜쏢쪵쿖놾뿷쯰,늢쟒웚듽ퟅ막볛믡랴떯ꆣ퓚쪵퇩훐,훐맺춶헟뗄뒦훃킧펦튲뗃떽쇋쪵퇩뷡맻뗄횱뷓횤쪵,막볛솬탸쿂뗸쪱뗄욽뻹돖폐웚캪517룶퓂,쿔훸뗘뎤폚솬탸짏헇뗄욽뻹돖폐쪱볤219룶퓂,컞싛퓚쓄룶쪱볤뛎짏,뛔솬뗸막욱뗄돖폐쪱볤뻹튪쿔훸뗘뎤폚솬헇막욱ꆣ늢쟒뛔솬뗸막욱뗄돖폐쪱볤폫솬뗸뗄쪱볤뎤뛈쿔훸돉헽뇈,뗸뗃풽뛠,춶헟풽쫇돖폐ꆣ얮탔퓚막볛솬헇쪱뗄싴돶쟣쿲쿔훸룟폚쓐탔,뛸쓐탔퓚막볛솬뗸쪱뗄싴돶쟣쿲좴쿔훸룟폚얮탔,헢쯆뫵틢캶ퟅꆰ뒦훃킧펦ꆱ퓚얮탔춶헟짭짏쳥쿖뗃룼쏷쿔ꆣ쪵퇩튲랢쿖춶뺭퇩폫횪쪶돌뛈뗍뗄춶헟ꆰ뒦훃킧펦ꆱ룟폚춶뺭퇩폫횪쪶돌뛈뷏룟뗄춶헟,뇭쏷춶횪쪶폫뺭퇩뷏럡뢻뗄춶헟룼볓샭탔ꆣ돽듋횮췢,컒쏇뮹랢쿖,컞싛쫇짏헇뗄막욱,뮹쫇쿂뗸뗄막욱,춶헟퓚싲죫뫳뗄욽뻹돖폐웚뻹늻뎬맽튻쓪,헢뫜횱뷓뗘뇭쏷쇋컒맺뗄춶헟좷쪵쫇틔뛌웚춶캪훷ꆣ쯤좻쪵퇩훐ꆰ뛄춽쏽컳ꆱ킧펦퓬돉뗄뷡맻폫뒦훃킧펦뗄뇭쿖뫜쿠쯆,떫컒쏇죏캪웤놳뫳뗄풭틲늢늻췪좫튻퇹ꆣꆰ뛄춽쏽컳ꆱ킧펦쫇춶헟듺뇭탔웴랢쪽쮼캬(representativeheuristic)떼훂뗄,죋쏇쟣쿲폚죏캪죧맻튻볾쫂ퟜ쫇솬탸돶쿖튻훖뷡맻,퓲뫜뿉쓜믡돶쿖늻춬뗄뷡맻살붫웤ꆰ욽뻹ꆱ튻쿂(TverskyandKahneman,1971),헽쫇헢훖쮼캬쪹춶헟룼볓쿠탅막볛랴돶쿖뗄뿉쓜탔ꆣ췵폀뫪ꆢ헔톧뻼(2001)틔벰키뻼ꆢ탬탅훒(2004)퓋폃쫐뎡쫽뻝뗄쪵횤퇐뺿횤쪵쇋훐맺막쫐듦퓚쏷쿔뗄쫕틦랴쿖쿳,췵폀뫪뗈(2001)죏캪헢쫇평폚춶헟맽뛈랴펦퓬돉뗄ꆣ컒쏇죏캪맽뛈랴펦뫜뿉쓜틲캪ꆰ뛄춽쏽컳ꆱ킧펦뗄듦퓚,춶헟틲캪쿠탅솬탸헇뗸뗄막욱믡돶쿖랴,뛔헢훖샠탍뗄막욱돶쿖벯쳥싴돶폫싲뷸뗄탐캪,듓뛸뇭쿖돶맽뛈랴펦ꆣ뛸헢훖뛔솬탸헇뗸막욱뗄벯쳥붻틗탐캪튲벫폐뿉쓜떼훂횤좯쫐뎡훐퇲좺탐캪,틔뫳뗄퇐뺿뿉틔퓋폃쫐뎡쫽뻝뛔ꆰ뛄춽쏽컳ꆱ킧펦폫횤좯쫐뎡뗄퇲좺탐캪횮볤뗄맘쾵뷸탐퇐뺿ꆣ쪵퇩뷡맻뇭쏷ꆰ,뛄춽쏽컳ꆱ햼뻝훷떼ퟷ폃쪱,막볛풽쫇쿂뗸,춶헟죏캪랴뗄뿉쓜탔풽듳,듓ꋙ컒쏇룐킻쓤쏻짳룥죋쳡릩뗄닎뾼컄쿗뛔헢튻쿖쿳뗄샭싛뷢쫍ꆣ67
쇖ꆡ쫷뗈:춶헟ꆰ죈쫖킧펦ꆱ폫ꆰ뛄춽쏽컳ꆱ뗄탄샭쪵퇩퇐뺿뛸싴돶뗄풽짙,싲뷸뗄풽뛠,뛸헢퇹뗄풤웚뫍탐캪폖믡떼훂막볛쿲짏퓋탐ꆣ떫쫇,컒맺쒿잰뗄돖탸ꆰ태쫐ꆱ잡폫쪵퇩뷡싛뗄췆뛏쿠랴,막볛늻뛏쿂뗸,늢쎻폐랢쿖쏷쿔뗄헦헽랴떯벣쿳ꆣ헢쯆뫵폫쪵퇩뷡싛늻럻ꆣ헢훖쎬뛜뗄풭틲뿉쓜폐:뗚튻,놾퇐뺿뗄탄샭톧쪵퇩훷튪헫뛔룶쳥춶헟,쯤좻쯻쏇뛔쒿잰막쫐폐ퟅ랴뗄풸췻,쾣췻막쫐뿉틔냚췑뎤웚뗍쏔뗄ힴ뿶,떫쫇쯻쏇뗄솦솿퓚헻룶횤좯쫐뎡뗄ퟷ폃죔좻폐쿞,뛸믺릹춶헟뗄풤웚뫜뿉쓜폫룶쳥춶헟늻춬,늢쟒평폚믺릹퓚쫐뎡훐뗄뇈훘폫ퟷ폃풽살풽듳,틲뛸뿉쓜틲캪쯻쏇늢늻쿠탅쫐뎡믡퓚뛌웚쓚폐랴떯뗄뿉쓜,춶탐캪틔엗쫛횹쯰캪훷,쯹틔닅쪹헻룶쫐뎡돖탸뗍쏔;뗚뛾,평폚쪵퇩뗄놻쫔뻹캪쫜맽뷏룟쮮욽뷌폽뗄춶헟,뛸쫐뎡훐폐쿠떱튻늿럖룶쳥춶헟뷌폽쮮욽뷏뗍,헢늿럖춶헟뗄럇샭탔퓫짹탐캪뿉쓜퓝쪱뗖쿻쇋ꆰ뛄춽쏽컳ꆱ퓬돉뗄랴붻틗탐캪;뗚죽,놾퇐뺿닉폃뗄쫇쪵퇩쫒쪵퇩랽램,뷶뷶뾼싇룶쳥춶헟쏦뛔막볛솬탸헇뗸탲쇐탅쾢쪱뗄붻틗탐캪폫풤웚,쎻폐짦벰웤쯻틲쯘폈웤쫇췢늿뮷뺳틲쯘뗄펰쿬,샽죧쫐뎡탅쾢쪧헦,짏쫐릫쮾뗄뗍훊솿,릫릲헾닟뗄튡냚,막좨럖훃,맺폐막쇷춨뗈,틔벰놯맛쟩탷퓚춶헟좺쳥훐뗄룐좾ꆢ뒫뗝뗈ꆣ놾퇐뺿뗄틢틥퓚폚,컒쏇랢쿖쫐뎡막볛돖탸쿂뗸쪱룶쳥춶헟훐좷쪵듦퓚ퟅ튻훖횧돖막볛믘짽뗄믹놾탄샭틲쯘벰폫듋쿠맘뗄뷏컈뚨뗄탐캪랽쪽,뛸헢훖쫐뎡탨쟳랽뗄쓚퓚틲쯘쓜럱랢믓쿔훸ퟷ폃,퓲좡뻶폚췢늿쳵볾뗄싺ퟣ돌뛈ꆣ퓚쫊뫏뗄췢늿뮷뺳폕떼쿂,춶헟뛔쫐뎡볛룱뗄탄샭횧독솦솿뻍폐뿉쓜뮯캪쫐뎡훐쿖쪵뗄폐킧탨쟳,췆뚯훐맺횤좯쫐뎡뗄붡뾵랢햹ꆣ닎뾼컄쿗돂닽뮪,2005ꆶ:훐맺막쫐뇟풵뮯쇋싰ꆷꆶ,닆뺭ꆷ뗚4웚ꆣ쇵믔ꆢ뫘뻕믍ꆢ짲뿉춦,2003ꆶ:훐맺막쫐훐탅쾢랴펦쒣쪽뗄쪵횤럖컶ꆷꆶ,맜샭쫀뷧ꆷ뗚8웚ꆣ쯯헗뇳,믆믝뒺,2005ꆶ:ꆰ막쫐삧뺳ꆱ폫훐맺막욱쫐뎡랢햹ꆷꆶ,맣뚫뷰죚톧풺톧놨ꆷ뗚4웚ꆣ췵폀뫪ꆢ헔톧뻼,2001ꆶ:훐맺막쫐ꆰ맟탔닟싔ꆱ뫍ꆰ랴닟싔ꆱ뗄쪵횤럖컶ꆷꆶ,뺭볃퇐뺿ꆷ뗚6웚ꆣ키뻼ꆢ탬탅훒,2004ꆶ:훐맺막쫐볛횵랴춶닟싔폐킧탔쪵횤퇐뺿ꆷꆶ,뺭볃퇐뺿ꆷ뗚3웚ꆣ헔톧뻼ꆢ췵폀뫪,2001ꆶ:훐맺막쫐ꆰ뒦훃킧펦ꆱ뗄쪵횤럖컶ꆷꆶ,뷰죚퇐뺿ꆷ뗚7웚ꆣ훜붣쏷,2005ꆶ:쫐뎡늻쓜첫짋춶헟뗄탄ꆪꆪꆪ훐맺횤좯쫐뎡춶헟폫듓튵죋풱뗷닩ꆷꆶ,훐맺랢햹맛달ꆷ3퓂뫅ꆣ,2004ꆰ,TheHotHandFallacyandtheGamblerꆯsFallacy:TwoFacesofSubjectiveRandomness?ꆱMemory&Cognition,32,1369ꆪ,ꆰ,AnExperimentTestofSeveralGeneralizedUtilityTheoriesꆱ,JournalofRiskandUncertainty,2,61ꆪ,.,1991ꆰ,WhatDoEconomistsKnowabouttheStockMarket?ꆱJournalofPortfolioManagement17,84ꆪ,T.,Vallone,,ꆰ,TheHotHandinBasketball:OntheMisperceptionofRandomSequencesꆱ,CognitivePsychology,17,295ꆪ,J.,2001ꆰ,Losers,WinnersandHypeConsumerChoiceofStocksUnderUncertaintyꆱ,,GraduateSchool,,,S.,1993ꆰ,ReturnstoBuyingWinnersandSellingLosers:ImplicationsforStockMarketEfficiencyꆱ,JournalofFinance,48,65ꆪ,,1994ꆰ,ContrarianInvestment,Extrapolation,andRiskꆱ,JournalofFinance,49,1541ꆪ,,BeyondGreedandFear,,,1985ꆰ,TheDispositiontoSellWinnersTooEarlyandRideLosersTooLong:TheoryandEvidenceꆱ,JournalofFinance,40,777ꆪ,ꆰ,ATestoftheGamblerꆯsFallacy:EvidencefromPari2mutuelGamesꆱ,JournalofRiskandUncertainty,8,309ꆪ,,ꆰ,BeliefintheLawofSmallNumbersꆱ,PsychologicalBulletin,76,105ꆪ,,ꆰ,Representativeness-BeliefintheLawofSmallNumbersꆱ,JudgmentUnderUncertainty:HeuristicsandBiases,,,,ꆰAdvancesinProspectTheory:CumulativeRepresentationofUncertaintyꆱ,JournalofRiskandUncertainty,5,297ꆪ
2006쓪뗚8웚PsychologicalExperimentalStudyonHot2handEffectandGamblerꆯsFallacyLabcdinShu,YuQiao,TangZhengyu,ZhouJian(a:SydneyInstituteofLanguageandCommerce,ShanghaiUniversity)(b:SchoolofPublicPolicy&Management,TsinghuaUniversity)(c,d:SchoolofManagement,FudanUniversity)Abstract:Withpsychologicalexperiments,wefoundthatwheneverstockpricegoesuporgoesdowncontinuously,gamblerꆯsfallacywilldominatehot2handeffectininvestorꆯ,thelongerthepriceup,thelargeristheprobabilitythatinvestorthinkthepricewilldropdowninnextperiod,,whenstockpricedropsdowncontinuously,thelongerthepricedown,thelargeristheprobabilitythatinvestorthinkthepricewillgoupinnextperiod,ꆯ,:Hot2handEffect;GamblerꆯsFallacy;PsychologicalExperiment;DispositionEffectJELClassification:G190,C910(퓰죎뇠벭:뫪ꆡ쇁)(킣뛔:ퟓꆡ)(짏뷓뗚13튳)Megginson,,2001,ꆰFromStatetoMarket:ASurveyofEmpiricalStudiesonPrivatization.ꆱJournalofEconomicLiterature39,ꆪ,,1990,,,,2003,ꆰChinaShareIssuePrivatization:TheExtentofItsSuccess.ꆱJournalofFinancialEconomics70,ꆪ,LuJiangyong,TcaoZhigang(a,b:TsinghuaUniversity;c:FacultyofBusinessandEconomics,TheUniversityofHongKong)Abstract:UsingacomprehensivepaneldatasetofChinaꆯsstate2ownedenterprises,,:Privatization;Performance;SocialWelfareJELClassification:D240,O470,P310(퓰죎뇠벭:쿾폷)(킣뛔:ퟓꆡ)69
